Search results for: market prices

Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio

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Authors: C. Asarkaya, S. Z. Siretioglu Girgin

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Turkish migrants constitute the largest group among people with migration background living in Germany. Turkish women’s labor market participation is of significant importance for their social and economic integration to the German society. This paper thus aims to investigate their labor market positions. Turkish migrant women participate less in the labor market compared to men, and are responsible for most of the housework, child care, and elderly care. This is due to their traditional roles in the family, educational level, insufficient knowledge of German language, and insufficient professional experience. We strongly recommend that wide-reaching integration policies for women are formulated, so as to encourage participation of not only migrant women but also their husbands, fathers and/or brothers, and natives.

Keywords: empowerment, Germany, labor market, migration, Turkish, women

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Authors: Peng Lu, Liu Ting

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Because of the difficulty of financing from the external capital market, the reorganization and merger of private enterprises have formed a family group, seeking the help of the internal capital market to alleviate the capital demand. However, the inefficiency of the internal capital market can damage the effect it should have played, and even hinder the development of enterprises. This paper takes the "Tomorrow Group" as the research object to carry on the case analysis. After using the improved cash flow sensitivity coefficient to measure the efficiency of the internal capital market of Tomorrow Group, the inefficiency phenomenon is found. Then the analysis reveals that the reasons for its inefficiency include that the pyramidal equity structure is conducive to control, the separation of cash flow rights and control rights, the concentration of equity leads to poor balance, the abandonment of real industries and information asymmetry.

Keywords: tomorrow group, internal capital market, related-party transactions, Baotou tomorrow technology Co., LTD

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Authors: Mekdes Getu Chekol, Biniam Tedros Kahsay, Rahwa Berihu Haile

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The main objective of this study is to investigate the marketing strategy practice in the Case of St. George Brewery Factory in Addis Ababa. One of the core activities in a Business Company to stay in business is having a well-developed marketing strategy. It assessed how the marketing strategies were practiced in the company to achieve its goals aligned with segmentation, target market, positioning, and the marketing mix elements to satisfy customer requirements. Using primary and secondary data, the study is conducted by using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The primary data was collected through open and closed-ended questionnaires. Considering the size of the population is small, the selection of the respondents was carried out by using a census. The finding shows that the company used all the 4 Ps of the marketing mix elements in its marketing strategies and provided quality products at affordable prices by promoting its products by using high and effective advertising mechanisms. The product availability and accessibility are admirable with the practices of both direct and indirect distribution channels. On the other hand, the company has identified its target customers, and the company’s market segmentation practice is geographical location. Communication effectiveness between the marketing department and other departments is very good. The adjusted R2 model explains 61.6% of the marketing strategy practice variance by product, price, promotion, and place. The remaining 38.4% of variation in the dependent variable was explained by other factors not included in this study. The result reveals that all four independent variables, product, price, promotion, and place, have a positive beta sign, proving that predictor variables have a positive effect on that of the predicting dependent variable marketing strategy practice. Even though the marketing strategies of the company are effectively practiced, there are some problems that the company faces while implementing them. These are infrastructure problems, economic problems, intensive competition in the market, shortage of raw materials, seasonality of consumption, socio-cultural problems, and the time and cost of awareness creation for the customers. Finally, the authors suggest that the company better develop a long-range view and try to implement a more structured approach to attain information about potential customers, competitor’s actions, and market intelligence within the industry. In addition, we recommend conducting the study by increasing the sample size and including different marketing factors.

Keywords: marketing strategy, market segmentation, target marketing, market positioning, marketing mix

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

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In this paper, effects and responses of stock were analyzed. This analysis was done periodically. The dimensions of the financial crisis impact on the stock market were investigated by GARCH model. In this context, S&P 500 stock market is modeled with DAX, NIKKEI and BIST100. In this way, The effects of the changing in S&P 500 stock market were examined on European and Asian stock markets. Conditional variance coefficient will be calculated through garch model. The scope of the crisis period, the conditional covariance coefficient will be analyzed comparatively.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

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Authors: Tarik Bazgour, Cedric Heuchenne, Danielle Sougne

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We examine time variation in the market beta of portfolios sorted on quality, liquidity level and liquidity beta characteristics across stock market phases. Using US stock market data for the period 1970-2010, we find, first, the US stock market was driven by four regimes. Second, during the crisis regime, low (high) quality, high (low) liquidity beta and illiquid (liquid) stocks exhibit an increase (a decrease) in their market betas. This finding is consistent with the flight-to-quality and liquidity phenomena. Third, we document the same pattern across stocks when the market volatility is low. We argue that, during low volatility times, investors shift their portfolios towards low quality and illiquid stocks to seek portfolio gains. The pattern observed in the tranquil regime can be, therefore, explained by a flight-to-low-quality and to illiquidity. Finally, our results reveal that liquidity level is more important than liquidity beta during the crisis regime.

Keywords: financial crises, quality, liquidity, liquidity risk, regime-switching models

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Authors: Deeksha Arora

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The study aims to explore the applicability of the widely used asset pricing models, namely, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French Four Factor Model in the Indian equity market. The study will be based on the companies that form part of the Nifty Fifty Index for a period of five years: 2011 to 2016. The asset pricing model is examined by forming portfolios on the basis of three variables – market capitalization (size effect), book-to-market equity ratio (value effect) and profitability. The study provides a basis to test the presence of the Fama-French Four factor model in Indian stock market. This study may provide a basis for future research in the generalized asset pricing model comprising of multiple risk factors.

Keywords: book to market equity, Fama French four factor model, market capitalization, profitability, size effect, value effect

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Authors: Mohammad A. R. S. Almutairi

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This study will provide the introduction that constitutes the problem cornerstone of legal disputes of disclosure and transparency under Kuwaiti Capital market authority Law No. 7 of 2010. It also will discuss the reasons for the emergence of corporate governance and its purposes in the Capital Market Authority Law in Kuwait. In addition, it will show the legal disputes resulting from the unclear concept of disclosure and interest and will discuss the main reasons in support of the possible solution. In addition, this study will argue why the Capital Market Authority Law in Kuwait needs a clear concept and a straight structure of disclosure under section 100. This study will demonstrate why a clear disclosure is led to a better application of the law. This study will demonstrate the fairness in applying the law regarding the punishment against individual, companies and securities market. Furthermore, it will discuss added confidence between investors and the stock market with a clear concept under section 100. Finally, it will summarize arises problem and possible solution.

Keywords: corporate governors, disclosure, transparency, fairness

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Authors: Almoutassem Bellah Nasser

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This paper is aimed at calculating the intangible assets of Jordanian economy. This effort is a response to the demand from corporations for these services which reflects a perceived gap in internal and external financial reporting on intangible investments. The main conclusion of the paper is to suggest that the way forward to a standardized, more comparable approach to measuring intangible capital is to employ CIV method of valuation. Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change as some attempts have been made to measure the amount of intangible assets. It was found that intangible assets account for $164.20 million in all the listed companies of Jordan. All this money does not appear on the balance sheets of these companies and hence requires special attention of policy makers for better utilization.

Keywords: intangible capital, stock prices, Amman Stock Exchange

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

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Authors: Yunice Karina Tumewang

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As we have seen, the number of Muslim and their awareness toward financial products and services that conform to Islamic principles are growing rapidly today. Thus, it makes the market environment potentially beneficial for Shari-compliant funds with the expanding prospective client base. However, over the last decade, only small portion of this huge potential market has been covered by the established Islamic asset management firms. This study aims to examine the factors of this untapped market particularly in the demand side. This study will use the qualitative method with primary data through a questionnaire distributed to 500 samples of Muslim population. It will shed light on Muslim attitudes and expectations toward Sharia-compliant retirement planning and pensions. It will also help to raise the awareness of market players to see Islamic pension fund as a promising industry in the foreseeable future.

Keywords: Islamic marketing, Islamic finance, Islamic asset management, Islamic pension fund

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Authors: Taufik Nugroho, Firsty Dzainuurahmana, Tika Widiastuti

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The polemic about the salt crisis re-emerged, this is a classic problem in Indonesia and is still a homework that is not finished yet. This salt crisis occurs due to low productivity of salt commodities that have not been able to meet domestic demand and lack of salt productivity caused by several factors. One of the biggest factors of the crisis is the weather anomaly that disrupts salt production, less supportive technology and price stability. This study will try to discuss the salt scarcity and crisis solution in Islamic view. As for the conclusion of this study is the need for equilibrium or balancing between demand and supply, need to optimize the role of the government as Hisbah to maintain the balance of market mechanisms and prepare the stock system of salt stock by buying farmers products at reasonable prices then storing them.

Keywords: crisis, Islamic solution, scarcity, salt

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Authors: Fayiz Saifurahman, Noori Fida Mohammad

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Afghanistan produces the highest rate of wheat, it is the first source of food, and food security in Afghanistan is dependent on the availability of wheat. Although Afghanistan is the main producer of wheat, on the other hand, Afghanistan is the largest importers of flour. The objective of this study is to assess the structure and dynamics of the wheat market in Afghanistan, can compute with foreign markets, and increase the level of production. To complete this, a broad series of secondary data was complied with, group discussions and interviews with farmers, agricultural and market experts. The research findings propose that; the government should adopt different policies to support the local market. The government should distribute the seed, support financially and technically to increase wheat production.

Keywords: Afghanistan, wheat, production , import

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Authors: Serpil Türkyılmaz, Mesut Balıbey

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In this study, long memory properties in volatility of Turkey Stock Market are being examined through the FIGARCH, FIEGARCH and FIAPARCH models under different distribution assumptions as normal and skewed student-t distributions. Furthermore, structural changes in volatility of Turkey Stock Market are investigated. The results display long memory property and the presence of asymmetric effects of shocks in volatility of Turkey Stock Market.

Keywords: FIAPARCH model, FIEGARCH model, FIGARCH model, structural break

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Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

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Authors: Weera Weerasophon

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The purpose of this research was to study Tourists’s satisfaction strategies case of Tourists who attended and shopped in Chatuchak weekend market (Bangkok) in order to improve service operation of Chatuchak weekend market to serve tourists’ need to impress them. The researcher used the marketing mix as a main factor that affect to tourist satisfaction. This research was emphasized as quantitative research as 400 of questionnaires were used for collecting the data from international tourists around Chatuchak weekend market that questionnaires divided in to 3 parts as a personal information part, satisfaction of marketing/services and facilities and suggestion part. After collecting all the data that would be processed in statistic program of SPSS to use for analyze the data later on. The result is described that most of international tourists satisfied Chatuchak weekend market in the level of 4 as more satisfaction for example friendly staff, Chatuchak information, price of product, facilities and service by the way, the environment of Chatuchak weekend market is the most satisfaction level.

Keywords: Chatuchak, satisfaction, Thailand tourism, marketing mix, tourists

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Authors: A. Novikova, L. Rocchi, G. Startiene

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Market and non-market outputs are produced jointly in agriculture. Their supply depends on the intensity and type of production. The role of agriculture as an economic activity and its effects are important for the Lithuanian case study, as agricultural land covers more than a half of country. Positive and negative externalities, created in agriculture are not considered in the market. Therefore, specific techniques such as stated preferences methods, in particular choice experiments (CE) are used for evaluation of non-market outputs in agriculture. The main aim of this paper is to present construction of the research path for evaluation of non-market farming system outputs in Lithuania. The conventional and organic farming, covering crops (including both cereal and industrial crops) and livestock (including dairy and cattle) production has been selected. The CE method and nested logit (NL) model were selected as appropriate for evaluation of non-market outputs of different farming systems in Lithuania. A pilot survey was implemented between October–November 2018, in order to test and improve the CE questionnaire. The results of the survey showed that the questionnaire is accepted and well understood by the respondents. The econometric modelling showed that the selected NL model could be used for the main survey. The understanding of the differences between organic and conventional farming by residents was identified. It was revealed that they are more willing to choose organic farming in comparison to conventional farming.

Keywords: choice experiments, farming system, Lithuania market outputs, non-market outputs

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Authors: Jasman Tuyon, Zamri Ahmad

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Behavioral asset pricing research has been gaining momentum since in 1990s. However, it is still incomplete and has been criticized for some philosophical, theoretical and model specification limitations. Due to these drawbacks, investors’ behaviors as a source of risk in behavioral asset pricing modeling still remains disputable. This paper aims to address these issues with an alternative perspective based on behavioral finance paradigm. Specifically, this paper proposes a theoretical linkages of both fundamental and behavioral risks on stock prices formation and an extension of the multifactor stock pricing model by combining multi-factor fundamentals and behavioral risks factors.

Keywords: behavioral finance, multifactor asset pricing, behavioral risks, fundamental risks

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Authors: Charaia Vakhtang

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Global oil prices are seeing new bottoms every day. The prices have already collapsed beneath the psychological verge of 30 USD. This tendency would be fully acceptable for the Georgian consumers, but there is one detail: two our neighboring countries (one friendly and one hostile) largely depend on resources of these hydrocarbons. Namely, the ratio of Azerbaijan in Georgia’s total FDI inflows in 2014 marked 20%. The ratio reached 40% in the January to September 2015. Azerbaijan is Georgia’s leading exports market. Namely, in 2014 Georgia’s exports to Azerbaijan constituted 544 million USD, i.e. 19% in Georgia’s total experts. In the January to November period of 2015, the ratio exceeded 11%. Moreover, Azerbaijan is Georgia’s strategic partner country as part of many regional projects that are designated for long-term perspectives. For example, the Baku-Tbilisi-Karsi railroad, the Black Sea terminal, preferential gas tariffs for Georgia and so on. The Russian economic contribution to the Georgian economy is also considerable, despite the losses the Russian hostile policy has inflicted to our country. Namely, Georgian emigrants are mainly employed in the Russian Federation and this category of Georgian citizens transfers considerable funds to Georgia every year. These transfers account for about 1 billion USD and consequently, these funds previously equalized to total FDI inflows. Moreover, despite the difficulties in the Russian market, Russia still remains a leader in terms of money transfers to Georgia. According to the last reports, money transfers from Russia to Georgia slipped by 276 million USD in 2015 compared to 2014 (-39%). At the same time, the total money transfers to Georgia in 2015 marked 1.08 billion USD, down 25% from 1.44 billion USD in 2014. This signifies the contraction in money transfers is by ¾ dependent on the Russian factor (in this case, contraction in oil prices and the Russian Ruble devaluation directly make negative impact on money transfers to Georgia). As to other countries, it is interesting that money transfers have also slipped from Italy (to 109 million USD from 121 million USD). Nevertheless, the country’s ratio in total money transfers to Georgia has increased to 10% from 8%. Money transfers to Georgia have increased by 22% (+18 million USD) from the USA. Money transfers have halved from Greece to 117 million USD from 205 million USD. As to Turkey, money transfers to Georgia from Turkey have increased by 1% to 69 million USD. Moreover, the problems with the national currencies of Russia and Azerbaijan, along with the above-mentioned developments, outline unfavorable perspectives for the Georgian economy. The depreciation of the national currencies of Azerbaijan and Russia is expected to bring unfavorable results for the Georgian economy. Even more so, the statement released by the Russian Finance Ministry on expected default is in direct relation to the welfare of the whole region and these tendencies will make direct and indirect negative impacts on Georgia’s economic indicators. Amid the economic slowdown in Armenia, Turkey and Ukraine, Georgia should try to enhance economic ties with comparatively stronger and flexible economies such as EU and USA. In other case, the Georgian economy will enter serious turbulent zone. We should make maximum benefit from the EU association agreement. It should be noted that the Russian economy slowdown that causes both regretful and happy moods in Georgia, will make negative impact on the Georgian economy. The same forecasts are made in relation to Azerbaijan. However, Georgia has many partner countries. Enhancement and development of the economic relations with these countries may maximally alleviate negative impacts from the declining economies. First of all, the EU association agreement should be mentioned as a main source for Georgia’s economic stabilization. It is the Georgian government‘s responsibility to successfully fulfill the EU association agreement requirements. In any case the imports must be replaced by domestic products and the exports should be stimulated through government support programs. The Authorities should ensure drawing more foreign investments and money resources, accumulating more tourism revenues and reducing external debts, budget expenditures should be balanced and the National Bank should carry out strict monetary policy. Moreover, the Government should develop a long-term state economic policy and carry out this policy at various Ministries. It is also of crucial importance to carry out constitutive policy and promote perspective directions on the domestic level.

Keywords: oil prices, economic growth, foreign direct investments, international trade

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Authors: Nguyen Ngoc Que Tran

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between internal market orientation, external market orientation, employee commitment and job satisfaction. Design/methodology/approach: This study collected data through a survey and utilized simple linear regression and multiple regression analysis to determine if there was any support for the research hypotheses as presented in the previous chapter. Findings: Using data from 256 employees of four leading joint stock banks in Vietnam, the empirical results indicates that employee commitment is positively related with external market orientation, job satisfaction is positively related to employee commitment, and employee commitment and job satisfaction are positively related to external market orientation. However, job satisfaction has no significant positive effect on external market orientation. Theoretical contribution: The primary contribution to marketing theory arising from this study is the integration of job satisfaction, employee commitment, and external market orientation in a single research model. Practical implications: The major contribution to practice is an external market oriented bank has to respond rapidly to the future needs and preferences of its customers. This could result in high levels of commitment to the service process and in doing so provide Vietnamese joint-stock commercial banks with a competitive advantage. The finding is important for the banking service sector in general and the Vietnamese banking industry in particular.

Keywords: employee commitment, job satisfaction and external market orientation, vietnam, bank

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Authors: G. La Scalia, M. Enea, R. Micale, O. Corona, L. Settanni

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The quality and condition of perishable products delivered to the market and their subsequent selling prices are directly affected by the care taken during harvesting and handling. Mechanical injury, in fact, occurs at all stages, from pre-harvest operations through post-harvest handling, packing and transport to the market. The main implications of this damage are the reduction of the product’s quality and economical losses related to the shelf life diminution. For most perishable products, the shelf life is relatively short and it is typically dictated by microbial growth related to the application of dynamic and static loads during transportation. This paper presents the correlation between vibration levels and microbiological growth on strawberries and woodland strawberries and detects the presence of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in order to develop an intelligent logistic unit capable of monitoring VOCs using a specific sensor system. Fresh fruits were exposed to vibrations by means of a vibrating table in a temperature-controlled environment. Microbiological analyses were conducted on samples, taken at different positions along the column of the crates. The values obtained were compared with control samples not exposed to vibrations and the results show that different positions along the column influence the development of bacteria, yeasts and filamentous fungi.

Keywords: microbiological analysis, shelf life, transport damage, volatile organic compounds

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Authors: Ira Joseph

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The LNG paradox addresses the issue of how the most expensive form of gas supply, which is LNG, will grow in an end user market where demand is most competitive, which is power generation. In this case, LNG demand growth is under siege from two entirely different directions. At one end is price; it will be extremely difficult for gas to replace coal in Asia due to the low price of coal and the age of the generation plants. Asia's coal fleet, on average, is less than two decades old and will need significant financial incentives to retire before its state lifespan. While gas would cut emissions in half relative to coal, it would also more than double the price of the fuel source for power generation, which puts it in a precarious position. In most countries in Asia other than China, this cost increase, particularly from imports, is simply not realistic when it is also necessary to focus on economic growth and social welfare. On the other end, renewables are growing at an exponential rate for three reasons. One is that prices are dropping. Two is that policy incentives are driving deployment, and three is that China is forcing renewables infrastructure into the market to take a political seat at the global energy table with Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia. Plus, more renewables will lower import growth of oil and gas in China, if not end it altogether. Renewables are the predator at the gate of gas demand in power generation and in every year that passes, renewables cut into demand growth projections for gas; in particular, the type of gas that is most expensive, which is LNG. Gas does have a role in the future, particularly within a domestic market. Once it crosses borders in the form of LNG or even pipeline gas, it quickly becomes a premium fuel and must be marketed and used this way. Our research shows that gas will be able to compete with batteries as an intermittency and storage tool and does offer a method to harmonize with renewables as part of the energy transition. As a baseload fuel, however, the role of gas, particularly, will be limited by cost once it needs to cross a border. Gas converted into blue or green hydrogen or ammonia is also an option for storage depending on the location. While this role is much reduced from the primary baseload role that gas once aspired to land, it still offers a credible option for decades to come.

Keywords: natural gas, LNG, demand, price, intermittency, storage, renewables

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Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene

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We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.

Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation

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Authors: Elvira Loibl

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In Western countries, the demand for adoptable children, especially healthy babies, has been considerably high for several years. Rising infertility rates, liberal abortion politics, the widespread use of contraception, and the increasing acceptance of unmarried motherhood are factors that have decreased the number of infants available for domestic adoption in the U.S. and Europe. As a consequence, many involuntarily childless couples turn to intercountry adoption as a viable alternative to have a child of their own. However, the demand for children far outpaces the supply of orphans with the desired characteristics. The imbalance between the number of prospective adopters and the children available for intercountry adoption results in long waiting lists and high prices. The inordinate sums of money involved in the international adoption system have created a commercial ‘underbelly’ where unethical and illicit practices are employed to provide the adoption market with adoptable children. Children are being purchased or abducted from their families, hospitals or child care institutions and then trafficked to receiving countries as ‘orphans’. This paper aims to uncover and explain the factors of the German adoption system that are conducive to child trafficking for adoption purposes. It explains that the tension between money and integrity as experienced by German adoption agencies, blind trust in the authorities in the sending countries as well as a lenient control system encourage and facilitate the trafficking in children to Germany.

Keywords: child trafficking, intercountry adoption, market in adoptable babies, German adoption system

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Belayneh Yohannes

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In Ethiopia, onion production is increasing from time to time mainly due to its high profitability per unit area. Onion has a significant contribution to generating cash income for farmers in the Raya Azebo district. Therefore, enhancing onion producers’ access to the market and improving market linkage is an essential issue. Hence, this study aimed to analyze structure-conduct-performance of onion market and identifying factors affecting the market supply of onion producers. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were collected from 150 farm households and 20 traders. Four onion marketing channels were identified in the study area. The highest total gross margin is 27.6 in channel IV. The highest gross marketing margin of producers of the onion market is 88% in channel II. The result from the analysis of market concentration indicated that the onion market is characterized by a strong oligopolistic market structure, with the buyers’ concentration ratio of 88.7 in Maichew town and 82.7 in Mekelle town. Lack of capital, licensing problems, and seasonal supply was identified as the major entry barrier to onion marketing. Market conduct shows that the price of onion is set by traders while producers are price takers. Multiple linear regression model results indicated that family size in adult equivalent, irrigated land size, access to information, frequency of extension contact, and ownership of transport significantly determined the quantity of onion supplied to the market. It is recommended that strengthening and diversifying extension services in information, marketing, post-harvest handling, irrigation application, and water harvest technology is highly important.

Keywords: oligopoly, onion, market chain, multiple linear regression

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Authors: Hananto Prakoso, Jean-Pierre Orfeuil

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The relationship between city size, urban transport efficiency (speed), employment proximity (distance) and accessibility of labour market is rarely examined especially in developing countries. This paper reveals the relationship using 2 points of views (active population and company). Then the analysis is divided according to 3 transport modes (car, public transport and motorcycle) and takes into account the vehicle ownership rate. We employ data across 111 districts in 4 big cities of Indonesia. In our result, speed indicator contributed positively to accessibility of labour market while distance elasticity is negative. In absolute value, elasticity of speed indicator is higher than that of distance.

Keywords: labour market, travel time, travel cost threshold, transportation

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Authors: Lu Liao

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This paper studies the impact of private labels on the advertising incentives of national brands. The worldwide expansion of private labels over the past two decades not only transformed the choice sets of consumers but also forced manufacturers of national brands to design new marketing strategies to maintain their market positions. This paper first develops a consumer demand model that incorporates spillover effects of advertising for antacids, including private labels and finds positive spillovers of national brands’ advertising on demand for private label antacids. With the demand estimates, it provides a simulation for the equilibrium prices and advertising levels for leading national brands in a counterfactual where private labels are eliminated to quantify national brands’ advertising incentives as a response to the rise of private labels.

Keywords: advertising, private label, marketing, demand

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Authors: Gerald Abdesaken, Thomas O. Miller

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This paper analyzes the performance of gold as a safe-haven investment. Assuming high market volatility as an impetus to seek a safe haven in gold, the return of gold relative to the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is tracked. Using the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) as a measure of stock market volatility, various criteria are established for when an investor would seek a safe haven to avoid high levels of risk. The results show that in a vast majority of cases, the S&P 500 outperforms gold during these periods of high volatility and suggests investors who seek safe haven are underperforming the market.

Keywords: gold, portfolio management, safe haven, VIX

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Authors: Istijabatul Aliyah, Bambang Setioko, Rara Sugiarti

Abstract:

Surakarta is one of the cities which are formed with the concept of Javanese cosmology. As a traditional town of Java, Surakarta is known as ‘the paradise’ of traditional markets. Since its establishment, Surakarta is formed with Catur Gatra Tunggal or Four Single-Slot concept (palace, square, mosques, and markets). Current development in Surakarta downtown today indicates that traditional markets have improved themselves in both physical and non-physical aspects. The efforts start from the market façade revitalization, restoration and the overall development of market; up to social activities, competition between traders or large celebrations in the neighbourhood market. This research was conducted in Surakarta, which is aimed at: identifying the role of traditional market revitalization efforts in the development of a city. This study employs several methods of analysis, namely: 1) Spatial analysis for mapping the distribution of traditional markets in the city constellation, 2) Category-Based Analysis (CBA) to classify the revitalization of traditional markets that has an influence in the development of the city, and 3) Interactive Method of Analysis. The results of this research indicate that the presence of a constellation of traditional markets in Surakarta is dominated by the presence of Gede Market, not only as the oldest traditional market, but also as a center of economic and socio-cultural activities of the community. The role of traditional market revitalization in the development of a town is as an Urban Catalyst towards a MICE city in the sense that the revitalization effort, even done in a relatively short time and not yet covering the overall objects, is able to establish brand image of Surakarta as a city of culture which is friendly and ready to be MICE tourism city.

Keywords: traditional market revitalization, urban catalyst, MICE tourism, Surakarta

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