Search results for: likelihood ratio test

Authors: Okwan Frank

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Maternal health outcome is one of the major population development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has the highest maternal mortality ratio, despite the progressive economic growth in the region during the global economic crisis. It has been hypothesized that increase in economic growth will reduce the level of maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of the negative relationship between health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Pooled Mean Group estimator of ARDL Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Kao test for cointegration to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between maternal mortality and economic growth. The results of the cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables considered for the study. The long-run result of the Pooled Mean group estimates confirmed the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between maternal health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth proxy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Thus increasing economic growth by investing in the health care systems to reduce pregnancy and childbirth complications will help reduce maternal mortality in the sub-region.

Keywords: economic growth, maternal mortality, pool mean group, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: Cristina Rodriguez, Abed Alaswad, Zaki El-Hassan, Abdul G. Olabi

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This study investigates the effect on methane production from the waste paper when co-digested with macroalgal biomass as a source of nitrogen. Both feedstocks were previously mechanically pretreated in order to reduce their particle size. Methane potential assays were carried out at laboratory scale in batch mode for 28 days. The study was planned according to two factors: the feedstock to inoculum (F/I) ratio and the waste paper to macroalgae (WP/MA) ratio. The F/I ratios checked were 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 and the WP/MA ratios were 0:100, 25:75, 50:50, 75:25 and 100:0. The highest methane yield (608 ml/g of volatile solids (VS)) was achieved at an F/I ratio of 0.2 and a WP/MA ratio of 50:50. The methane yield at a ratio WP/MA of 50:50 is higher than for single compound, while for ratios WP/MA of 25:75 and 75:25 the methane yield decreases compared to biomass mono-digestion. This behavior is observed for the three levels of F/I ratio being more noticeable at F/I ratio of 0.3. A synergistic effect was found for the WP/MA ratio of 50:50 and all F/I ratios and for WP/MA=50:50 and F/I=0.2. A maximum increase of methane yield of 49.58% was found for a co-digestion ratio of 50:50 and an F/I ratio of 0.4. It was concluded that methane production from waste paper improves significantly when co-digested with macroalgae biomass. The methane yields from co-digestion were also found higher that from macroalgae mono-digestion.

Keywords: anaerobic co-digestion, biogas, macroalgae, waste paper

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Authors: Vajiheh Javani

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The study aims to examine brand image in Iran's professional Football League (2014-2015). The study was descriptive survey one. A sample of Iranian professional football league fans (N=911) responded four items questionnaire. A structural equation model (SEM) test with maximum likelihood estimation was performed to test the relationships among the research variables. The analyses of data showed three dimensions of brand image influenced on fan’s brand loyalty of which the attitude was the most important. Benefits and attributes were placed in the second and third rank respectively. According to results, brand image plays a pivotal role between Iranian fans brand loyalty. Create an attractive and desirable brand image in the fans mind increases brand loyalty. Moreover due to, revenue and profits increase through ticket sales and products of club and also attract more sponsors.

Keywords: brand management, sport industry, brand image, fans

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Authors: Krzysztof Plesiewicz, Izabela Plesiewicz, Krzysztof Chiżyński, Marzenna Zielińska

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Background: Obesity is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. There are several anthropometric parameters proposed to estimate the level of obesity, but until now there is no agreement which one is the best predictor of cardiometabolic risk. Scientists defined metabolically obese normal weight, who suffer from metabolic abnormalities, the same as obese individuals, and defined this syndrome as normal weight obesity (NWO). Aim of the study: The aim of our study was to determine the occurrence of overweight and obesity in a cohort of young, adult women, using standard and complementary methods of obesity assessment and to indicate those, who are at risk of obesity. The second aim of our study was to test additional methods of obesity assessment and proof that body mass index using alone is not sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. Materials and methods: 384 young women, aged 18-32, were enrolled into the study. Standard anthropometric parameters (waist to hips ratio (WTH), waist to height ratio (WTHR)) and two other methods of body fat percentage measurement (BFPM) were used in the study: electrical bioimpendance analysis (BIA) and skinfold measurement test by digital fat body mass clipper (SFM). Results: In the study group 5% and 7% of participants had waist to hips ratio and accordingly waist to height ratio values connected with visceral obesity. According to BMI 14% participants were overweight and obese. Using additional methods of body fat assessment, there were 54% and 43% of obese for BIA and SMF method. In the group of participants with normal BMI and underweight (not overweight, n =340) there were individuals with the level of BFPM above the upper limit, for the BIA 49% (n =164) and for the SFM 36 % (n=125). Statistical analysis revealed strong correlation between BIA and SFM methods. Conclusion: BMI using alone is not a sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. High percentage of young women with normal BMI values seem to be normal weight obese.

Keywords: electrical bioimpedance, normal weight obesity, skin-fold measurement test, women

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Authors: Jiang Fan

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With growth of PV market in tropical region, it is necessary to investigate the performance of different types of PV technology under the tropical weather conditions. Singapore Polytechnic was funded by Economic Development Board (EDB) to set up a solar PV test-bed for the research on performance of different types of PV modules in the country. The PV test-bed installed the nine different types of PV systems that are integrated to power utility grid for monitoring and analyzing their operating performances. This paper presents the 12 months operational data of nine different PV systems and analyses on performances of installed PV systems using energy yield and performance ratio. The nine types of PV systems under test have shown their energy yields ranging from 2.67 to 3.36 kWh/kWp and their performance ratios (PRs) ranging from 70% to 88%.

Keywords: monocrystalline, multicrystalline, amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, thin film PV

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

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The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Zhiqiang Xu, Hongfang Ma, Haitao Zhang, Weixin Qian, Weiyong Ying

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SSZ-13 materials with different Si/Al ratio were prepared by varying the composition of aluminosilicate precursor solutions upon hydrothermal treatment at 150 °C. The Si/Al ratio of the initial system was systematically changed from 12.5 to infinity in order to study the limits of Al composition in precursor solutions for constructing CHA structure. The intermediates and final products were investigated by complementary techniques such as XRD, HRTEM, FESEM, and chemical analysis. NH₃-TPD was used to study the Brønsted acidity of SSZ-13 samples with different Si/Al ratios. The effect of the Si/Al ratio on the precursor species, ultimate crystal size, morphology and yield was investigated. The results revealed that Al species determine the nucleation rate and the number of nuclei, which is tied to the morphology and yield of SSZ-13. The size of SSZ-13 increased and the yield decreased as the Si/Al ratio was improved. Varying Si/Al ratio of the initial system is a facile, commercially viable method of tailoring SSZ-13 crystal size and morphology. Furthermore, SSZ-13 materials with different Si/Al ratio were tested as catalysts for the methanol to olefins (MTO) reaction at 350 °C. SSZ-13 with the Si/Al ratio of 35 shows the best MTO catalytic performance.

Keywords: crystallization, MTO, Si/Al ratio, SSZ-13

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Authors: Hao Chen, Bo Guo, Ping Jiang

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Residual life (RL) estimation based on multi-phase nonlinear Wiener process was studied in this paper, which is significant for complicated products with small samples. Firstly, nonlinear Wiener model with random parameter was introduced and multi-phase nonlinear Wiener model was proposed to model degradation process of products that were nonlinear and separated into different phases. Then the multi-phase RL probability density function based on the presented model was derived approximately in a closed form and parameters estimation was achieved with the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Finally, the method was applied to estimate the RL of high voltage plus capacitor. Compared with the other three different models by log-likelihood function (Log-LF) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), the results show that the proposed degradation model can capture degradation process of high voltage plus capacitors in a better way and provide a more reliable result.

Keywords: multi-phase nonlinear wiener process, residual life estimation, maximum likelihood estimation, high voltage plus capacitor

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Authors: Raymond D. Uzoh, Philip K. Shallsuku, Christopher S. Vaachia

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Selected edible leafy vegetables from North-eastern Nigeria were analysed for their sodium and potassium content in mg/100 g and the ratio Na+/K+ worked out. From experimental results, Venonia amydalina (bitter leaf) contained 150 mg (0.15 g) of sodium and 20500 mg (20.5 g) potassium with a ratio of 0.007, Brassica oleracea var capitata (cabbage) contained 300 mg (0.3 g) of sodium and 19000 mg (19 g) of potassium with a ration of 0.012. Others are Telfairia occidentalis (fluted pumpkin) with 400 mg (0.45 g) of sodium and 19500 mg (19.5 g) of potassium with a ratio of 0.020; Hibiscus sabdriffa (sorrel) has 200 mg (0.2 g) of sodium and 600 mg (0.6 g) of potassium with a ratio of 0.300; and Amarantus caudatus (spinach) contained 450 mg (0.45 g) of sodium and 23000 mg (23 g) of potassium with a ratio of 0.020. The presence of sodium and potassium in foods has become increasingly important as recent studies and dietary information gathered in this research has shown that sodium intake is not the sole consideration in elevated blood pressure but its considered as a ratio Na+/K+ fixed at 0.6. This ratio has been found to be a more important factor, suggesting that our diet should contain 67 % more potassium than sodium.

Keywords: vegetables, sodium, potassium, blood pressure, diet, foods

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Authors: Youn-Sung Kim, Jin-Ho Jo, Mi-Sung Kim, Jae-Kun Lee

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Accelerated life cycle test is applied to various products or components in order to reduce the time of life cycle test in industry. It must be considered for many test conditions according to the product characteristics for the test and the selection of acceleration parameter is especially very important. We have carried out the general life cycle test and the accelerated life cycle test by applying the acceleration factor (AF) considering the characteristics of brushless DC (BLDC) motor for washing machine. The final purpose of this study is to verify the validity by analyzing the results of the general life cycle test and the accelerated life cycle test. It will make it possible to reduce the life test time through the reasonable accelerated life cycle test.

Keywords: accelerated life cycle test, reliability test, motor for washing machine, brushless dc motor test

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Authors: Ferruh Taspinar, Gulce K. Seyyar, Gamze Kurt, Eda O. Okur, Emrah Afsar, Ismail Saracoglu, Betul Taspinar

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Overweight and obesity has been associated with postural balance. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between body composition and balance. One hundred and thirty two young adults (58 male, 74 female) were included in the study. Mean age of participants were found as 21.21±1.51 years. Body composition (body mass index, total body fat ratio, total body muscle ratio) and balance (right anterior, right postero-medial, right postero-lateral, left anterior, left postero-medial, left postero-lateral) were evaluated by Tanita BC-418 and Y balance test, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between the parameters. Significance level in statistical analysis was accepted as 0.05. According to results, no correlation was found between body mass index and balance parameters. There was negative correlation between total body fat ratio and balance parameters (r=0.419-0.509, p˂0.05). On the other hand, positive correlation was found between total body muscle ratio and balance parameters (r=0.390-0.494, p˂0.05). This study demonstrated that body fat and muscle ratio affects the balance. Body composition should be considered in rehabilitation programs including postural balance training.

Keywords: balance, body composition, body mass, young adults

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Authors: Aliakbar Sayadi, Thomas R. Neitzert, G. Charles Clifton, Min Cheol Han

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The present study aims to assess the performance of vermiculite concrete containing poly-lactic acid beads as an eco-friendly aggregate. Vermiculite aggregate was replaced by poly-lactic acid in percentages of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60% and 80%. Mechanical and thermal properties of concrete were investigated. Test results indicated that the inclusion of poly-lactic acid decreased the PH value of concrete and all the poly-lactic acid particles were dissolved due to the formation of sodium lactide and lactide oligomers when subjected to the high alkaline environment of concrete. In addition, an increase in thermal conductivity value of concrete was observed as the ratio of poly-lactic acid increased. Moreover, a set of equations was proposed to estimate the water-cement ratio, cement content and water absorption ratio of concrete.

Keywords: poly-lactic acid (PLA), vermiculite concrete, eco-friendly, mechanical properties

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Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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Authors: K. A. Adepoju, O. I. Shittu, A. U. Chukwu

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In this paper, a new four-parameter generalized version of the Fisher Snedecor distribution called Beta- F distribution is introduced. The comprehensive account of the statistical properties of the new distributions was considered. Formal expressions for the cumulative density function, moments, moment generating function and maximum likelihood estimation, as well as its Fisher information, were obtained. The flexibility of this distribution as well as its robustness using cancer remission time data was demonstrated. The new distribution can be used in most applications where the assumption underlying the use of other lifetime distributions is violated.

Keywords: fisher-snedecor distribution, beta-f distribution, outlier, maximum likelihood method

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Authors: Mohamed Khalifa Zayet, Salma Belal Eiid, Mushira Mohamed Dahaba

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Introduction: Malignant tumors may not be easily detected by traditional radiographic techniques especially in an anatomically complex area like maxillofacial region. At the same time, the advent of biological functional MRI was a significant footstep in the diagnostic imaging field. Objective: The purpose of this study was to define the malignant metabolic profile of maxillofacial lesions using diffusion MRI and magnetic resonance spectroscopy, as adjunctive aids for diagnosing of such lesions. Subjects and Methods: Twenty-one patients with twenty-two lesions were enrolled in this study. Both morphological and functional MRI scans were performed, where T1, T2 weighted images, diffusion-weighted MRI with four apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps were constructed for analysis, and magnetic resonance spectroscopy with qualitative and semi-quantitative analyses of choline and lactate peaks were applied. Then, all patients underwent incisional or excisional biopsies within two weeks from MR scans. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that not all the parameters had the same diagnostic performance, where lactate had the highest areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.9 and choline was the lowest with insignificant diagnostic value. The best cut-off value suggested for lactate was 0.125, where any lesion above this value is supposed to be malignant with 90 % sensitivity and 83.3 % specificity. Despite that ADC maps had comparable AUCs still, the statistical measure that had the final say was the interpretation of likelihood ratio. As expected, lactate again showed the best combination of positive and negative likelihood ratios, whereas for the maps, ADC map with 500 and 1000 b-values showed the best realistic combination of likelihood ratios, however, with lower sensitivity and specificity than lactate. Conclusion: Diffusion weighted imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy are state-of-art in the diagnostic arena and they manifested themselves as key players in the differentiation process of orofacial tumors. The complete biological profile of malignancy can be decoded as low ADC values, high choline and/or high lactate, whereas that of benign entities can be translated as high ADC values, low choline and no lactate.

Keywords: diffusion magnetic resonance imaging, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, malignant tumors, maxillofacial

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Authors: Xiaohuan Li, Wangmin Yi, Xinghui Wu

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In order to verify the performance of lunar lander structure, landing-impact test is urgently needed. Moreover, the test equipment is necessary for the test. The functions and the key points of the equipment is presented to satisfy the requirements of the test，and the design scheme is proposed. The composition, the major function and the critical parts’ design of the equipment are introduced. By the load test of releasing device and single-beam hoist, and the compatibility test of landing-impact testing system, the rationality and reliability of the equipment is proved.

Keywords: landing-impact test, lunar lander, releasing device, test equipment

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Authors: Alex Eldo Simon, Abhishek Yadav

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This study aimed to evaluate the utility of postmortem computed tomography (CT) and heart weight measurements in the assessment of cardiomegaly in cases of sudden death due to cardiac origin by comparing the results of these two diagnostic methods. The study retrospectively analyzed postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) data from 54 cases of sudden natural death and compared the findings with those of the autopsy. The study involved measuring the cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) from coronal computed tomography (CT) images and determining the actual cardiac weight by weighing the heart during the autopsy. The inclusion criteria for the study were cases of sudden death suspected to be caused by cardiac pathology, while exclusion criteria included death due to unnatural causes such as trauma or poisoning, diagnosed natural causes of death related to organs other than the heart, and cases of decomposition. Sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy were calculated, and to evaluate the accuracy of using the cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) to detect an enlarged heart, the study generated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) is a radiological tool used to assess cardiomegaly by measuring the maximum cardiac diameter in relation to the maximum transverse diameter of the chest wall. The clinically used criteria for CTR have been modified from 0.50 to 0.57 for use in postmortem settings, where abnormalities can be detected by comparing CTR values to this threshold. A CTR value of 0.57 or higher is suggestive of hypertrophy but not conclusive. Similarly, heart weight is measured during the traditional autopsy, and a cardiac weight greater than 450 grams is defined as hypertrophy. Of the 54 cases evaluated, 22 (40.7%) had a cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) ranging from > 0.50 to equal 0.57, and 12 cases (22.2%) had a CTR greater than 0.57, which was defined as hypertrophy. The mean CTR was calculated as 0.52 ± 0.06. Among the 54 cases evaluated, the weight of the heart was measured, and the mean was calculated as 369.4 ± 99.9 grams. Out of the 54 cases evaluated, 12 were found to have hypertrophy as defined by PMCT, while only 9 cases were identified with hypertrophy in traditional autopsy. The sensitivity and specificity of the test were calculated as 55.56% and 84.44%, respectively. The sensitivity of the hypertrophy test was found to be 55.56% (95% CI: 26.66, 81.12¹), the specificity was 84.44% (95% CI: 71.22, 92.25¹), and the diagnostic accuracy was 79.63% (95% CI: 67.1, 88.23¹). The limitation of the study was a low sample size of only 54 cases, which may limit the generalizability of the findings. The comparison of the cardiothoracic ratio with heart weight in this study suggests that PMCT may serve as a screening tool for medico-legal autopsies when performed by forensic pathologists. However, it should be noted that the low sensitivity of the test (55.5%) may limit its diagnostic accuracy, and therefore, further studies with larger sample sizes and more diverse populations are needed to validate these findings.

Keywords: PMCT, virtopsy, CTR, cardiothoracic ratio

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Authors: Mohit Chauhan, Atul Narayan

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Moisture damage is the continuous deterioration of asphalt concrete mixtures by the loss of adhesive bond between the asphalt binder and aggregates, or loss of cohesive bonds within the asphalt binder in the presence of moisture. Moisture has been known to either cause or exacerbates distresses in asphalt concrete pavements. Since moisture would often retain for a relatively long duration at the bottom of asphalt concrete layer, the movement of traffic loading in this saturated condition would cause excess stresses or strains within the mixture. This would accelerate the degradation of the adhesion and cohesion within the mixture and likely to contribute the development of fatigue cracking in asphalt concrete pavements. In view of this, it is important to investigate the effect of moisture on the fatigue behavior of asphalt concrete mixtures. In this study, changes in fatigue characteristics after moisture conditioning were evaluated by conducting four-point beam fatigue tests on dry and moisture conditioned specimens. For this purpose, mixtures with two different types of binders were prepared and saturated with moisture using 700 mm Hg vacuum. Beam specimens, in this way, were taken to a saturation level of 65-75 percent. After preconditioning specimens in this degree of saturation and 60°C for a period of 24 hours, they were subjected to four point beam fatigue tests in strain-controlled mode with a strain amplitude of 400 microstrain. The results were then compared with the fatigue test results obtained with beam specimens that were not subjected to moisture conditioning. Test results show that the conditioning reduces both fatigue life and initial flexural stiffness of specimen significantly. The moisture conditioning was also found to increase the rate of reduction of flexural stiffness. Moreover, it was observed that the fatigue life ratio (FLR), the ratio of the fatigue life of the moisture conditioned sample to that of the dry sample, is significantly lower than the flexural stiffness ratio (FSR). The study indicates that four-point bending test is an appropriate tool with FLR and FSR as the potential parameters for moisture-sensitivity evaluation.

Keywords: asphalt concrete, fatigue cracking, moisture damage, preconditioning

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Authors: Mehmet Fahri Sarac, Gokcen Akgun

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Ti–6Al–4V alloys are widely used in biomedical industries because of its attractive mechanical and physicochemical properties. However, they have poor wear resistance. High velocity oxygen fuel (HVOF) coatings were investigated as a way to improve the wear resistance of this alloy. In this paper, different mass ratio of Al₂O₃-TiO₂ powders (60/40, 87/13 and 97/3) was employed to enhance the tribological properties of Ti–6Al–4V. The tribological behavior was investigated by wear tests using ball-on-disc and pin-on-disc tribometer. The microstructures of the contact surfaces were determined by a scanning electron microscopy before and after the test to study the wear mechanism. Uncoated and coated surfaces after wear test are also subjected to micro-hardness tests. The tribological test results showed that the microhardness, friction and wear resistance of coated Ti-6Al-4V alloys increases by increasing TiO₂ content in the powder composite when other experimental conditions were constant. Finally, Al₂O₃-TiO₂ powder composites for the investigated conditions, both coating samples had satisfactory values of friction and wear resistance, and they could be suitable candidates for Ti–6Al–4V material.

Keywords: HVOF (High Velocity Oxygen Fuel), Al₂O₃-TiO₂, Ti-6Al-4V, tribology

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Authors: Bela Siska Afrida, Wisnu Barlianto, Desy Wulandari, Ery Olivianto

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Background: Allergic asthma, caused by IgE-mediated allergic reactions, remains a global health issue with high morbidity and mortality rates. Immunotherapy is the only etiology-based approach to treating asthma, but no standard biomarkers have been established to evaluate the therapy’s effectiveness. This study aims to determine the correlation between the ratios of serum levels of HDM-specific IgE/total IgE and Asthma Control Test (ACT) score as a biomarker of the response to immunotherapy in pediatric allergic asthma patients. Patient and Methods: This retrospective cohort study involved 26 pediatric allergic asthma patients who underwent HDM-specific subcutaneous immunotherapy for 14 weeks at the Pediatric Allergy Immunology Outpatient Clinic at Saiful Anwar General Hospital, Malang. Serum levels of HDM-Specific IgE and Total IgE were measured before and after immunotherapy using Chemiluminescence Immunoassay and Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. Changes in asthma control were assessed using the ACT score. The Wilcoxon Signed Ranked Test and Spearman correlation test were used for data analysis. Results: There were 14 boys and 12 girls with a mean age of 6.48 ± 2.54 years. The study showed a significant decrease in serum HMD-specific levels before immunotherapy [9.88 ± 5.74 kuA/L] compared to those of 14 weeks after immunotherapy [4.51 ± 3.98 kuA/L], p = 0.000. Serum Total IgE levels significant decrease before immunotherapy [207.6 ± 120.8IU/ml] compared to those of 14 weeks after immunotherapy [109.83 ± 189.39 IU/mL], p = 0.000. The ratios of serum HDM-specific IgE/total IgE levels significant decrease before immunotherapy [0.063 ± 0.05] compared to those of 14 weeks after immunotherapy [0.041 ± 0.039], p = 0.012. There was also a significant increase in ACT scores before and after immunotherapy (each 15.5 ± 1.79 and 20.96 ± 2.049, p = 0.000). The correlation test showed a weak negative correlation between the ratios of HDM-specific IgE/total IgE levels and ACT score (p = 0.034 and r = -0.29). Conclusion: In conclusion, this study showed that a decrease in HDM-specific IgE levels, total IgE levels, and HDM-specific IgE/total IgE ratios, and an increase in ACT score, was observed after 14 weeks of HDM-specific subcutaneous immunotherapy. The weak negative correlation between the HDM-specific IgE/total IgE ratio and the ACT score suggests that this ratio can serve as a potential biomarker of the effectiveness of immunotherapy in treating pediatric allergic asthma patients.

Keywords: HDM-specific IgE/total IgE ratio, ACT score, immunotherapy, allergic asthma

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov chain Monte Carlo method, maximum likelihood method, normal distribution

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Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal

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This paper explores the impact of the extent of a company's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on credit rating and capital structure. The analysis is based on a sample of 202 firms from the 350 FTSE firms over the period of 2008-2013. ESG disclosure score is measured using Proprietary Bloomberg score based on the extent of a company's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) disclosure. The credit rating is measured by The QuiScore, which is a measure of the likelihood that a company will become bankrupt in the twelve months following the date of calculation. The Capital Structure is measured by long term debt ratio. Two hypotheses are test using panel data regression. The results suggested that the higher degree of ESG disclosure leads to better credit rating. There is significant negative relationship between ESG disclosure and the long term debit percentage. The paper includes implications for the transparency which is resulting of the ESG disclosure could support the Monitoring Function. The monitoring role of disclosure is the increasing in the transparency of the credit rating agencies, also it could affect on managers’ actions. This study provides empirical evidence on the material of ESG disclosure on credit ratings changes and the firms’ capital decision making.

Keywords: capital structure, credit rating agencies, ESG disclosure, panel data regression

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Authors: Yeonjeong Lee, Kyoung-jae Kim, Youngtae Kim

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This study proposes a novel recommender system that uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user’s preference. The proposed model consists of two steps. In the first step, this study uses logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. Then, this study combines the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. In the second step, this study uses the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. Finally, the system selects customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group and recommends proper products from same or different product groups to them through above two steps. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

Keywords: product recommender system, ensemble technique, association rules, decision tree, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Chaiyakrit Raoupatham, Ram Hari Dhakal, Chalermchai Wanichlamlert

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This paper is aimed to introduce the solution of concrete slump recovery using chemical admixture type-F (superplasticizer, naphthalene base) to the practice, in order to solve unusable concrete problem due to concrete loss its slump, especially for those tropical countries that have faster slump loss rate. In the other hand, randomly adding superplasticizer into concrete can cause concrete to segregate. Therefore, this paper also develops the estimation model used to calculate amount of second dose of superplasticizer need for concrete slump recovery. Fresh properties of ordinary Portland cement concrete with volumetric ratio of paste to void between aggregate (paste content) of 1.1-1.3 with water-cement ratio zone of 0.30 to 0.67 and initial superplasticizer (naphthalene base) of 0.25%- 1.6% were tested for initial slump and slump loss for every 30 minutes for one and half hour by slump cone test. Those concretes with slump loss range from 10% to 90% were re-dosed and successfully recovered back to its initial slump. Slump after re-dosed was tested by slump cone test. From the result, it has been concluded that, slump loss was slower for those mix with high initial dose of superplasticizer due to addition of superplasticizer will disturb cement hydration. The required second dose of superplasticizer was affected by two major parameter, which were water-cement ratio and paste content, where lower water-cement ratio and paste content cause an increase in require second dose of superplasticizer. The amount of second dose of superplasticizer is higher as the solid content within the system is increase, solid can be either from cement particles or aggregate. The data was analyzed to form an equation use to estimate the amount of second dosage requirement of superplasticizer to recovery slump to its original.

Keywords: estimation model, second superplasticizer dosage, slump loss, slump recovery

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Arnab Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative study of Arch bridges based on their varying rise to span ratio. The comparison is done between different steel Arch bridges which have variable span length and rise to span ratio keeping the same support condition. The aim of our present study is to select the optimum value of rise to span ratio of Arch bridge as the cost of the Arch bridge increases with the increasing of the rise. In order to fulfill the objective, several rise to span ratio have been considered for same span of Arch bridge and various structural parameters such as Bending moment, shear force etc have been calculated for different model. A comparative study has been done for several Arch bridges finally to select the optimum rise to span ratio of the Arch bridges. In the present study, Finite Element model for medium to long span, with different rise to span ratio have been modeled and are analyzed with the help of a Computational Software named MIDAS Civil to evaluate the results such as Bending moments, Shear force, displacements, Stresses, influence line diagrams, critical loads. In the present study, 60 models of Arch bridges for 80 to 120 m span with different rise to span ratio has been thoroughly investigated.

Keywords: arch bridge, analysis, comparative study, rise to span ratio

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Authors: Zhou Xiong, Kang Shao Bo, Yang Bo

Abstract:

To date, high-performance structural steel has been widely used for columns in construction practices due to its significant advantages over conventional steel. However, the same design approach with conventional steel columns is still adopted in the design of high-performance steel columns. As a result, its superior properties cannot be fully considered in design. This paper conducts a test and finite element analysis on the overall stability behaviour of welded Q460GJ steel box columns. In the test, four steel columns with different slenderness and width-to-thickness ratio were compressed under an axial compression testing machine. And finite element models were established in which material nonlinearity and residual stress distributions of test columns were included. Then, comparisons were made between test results and finite element result, it showed that finite element analysis results are agree well with the test result. It means that the test and finite element model are reliable. Then, we compared the test result with the design value calculated by current code, the result showed that Q460GJ steel box columns have the higher overall buckling capacity than the design value. It is necessary to update the design curves for Q460GJ steel columns so that the overall stability capacity of Q460GJ box columns can be designed appropriately.

Keywords: axial compression, box columns, global buckling, numerical simulations, Q460GJ steel

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Authors: Pranav Ajmera, Amit Kharat, Tanveer Gupte, Richa Pant, Viraj Kulkarni, Vinay Duddalwar, Purnachandra Lamghare

Abstract:

The cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) is the ratio of the diameter of the heart to the diameter of the thorax. An abnormal CTR, that is, a value greater than 0.55, is often an indicator of an underlying pathological condition. The accurate prediction of an abnormal CTR from chest X-rays (CXRs) aids in the early diagnosis of clinical conditions. We propose a deep learning-based model for automatic CTR calculation that can assist the radiologist with the diagnosis of cardiomegaly and optimize the radiology flow. The study population included 1012 posteroanterior (PA) CXRs from a single institution. The Attention U-Net deep learning (DL) architecture was used for the automatic calculation of CTR. A CTR of 0.55 was used as a cut-off to categorize the condition as cardiomegaly present or absent. An observer performance test was conducted to assess the radiologist's performance in diagnosing cardiomegaly with and without artificial intelligence (AI) assistance. The Attention U-Net model was highly specific in calculating the CTR. The model exhibited a sensitivity of 0.80 [95% CI: 0.75, 0.85], precision of 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98, 1], and a F1 score of 0.88 [95% CI: 0.85, 0.91]. During the analysis, we observed that 51 out of 1012 samples were misclassified by the model when compared to annotations made by the expert radiologist. We further observed that the sensitivity of the reviewing radiologist in identifying cardiomegaly increased from 40.50% to 88.4% when aided by the AI-generated CTR. Our segmentation-based AI model demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity for CTR calculation. The performance of the radiologist on the observer performance test improved significantly with AI assistance. A DL-based segmentation model for rapid quantification of CTR can therefore have significant potential to be used in clinical workflows.

Keywords: cardiomegaly, deep learning, chest radiograph, artificial intelligence, cardiothoracic ratio

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Authors: Yi-Cheng Tian, Miin-Shen Yang

Abstract:

The mixture likelihood approach to clustering is a popular clustering method where the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is the most used mixture likelihood method. In the literature, the EM algorithm had been used for mixture regression models. However, these EM mixture regression algorithms are sensitive to initial values with a priori number of clusters. In this paper, to resolve these drawbacks, we construct a learning-based schema for the EM mixture regression algorithm such that it is free of initializations and can automatically obtain an approximately optimal number of clusters. Some numerical examples and comparisons demonstrate the superiority and usefulness of the proposed learning-based EM mixture regression algorithm.

Keywords: clustering, EM algorithm, Gaussian mixture model, mixture regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 478