Search results for: goods trade scenario

Authors: Leo Byrne, Neil Watts

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In the complex and evolving landscape of global trade, maritime sanctions emerge as a critical tool wielded by the international community to curb illegal activities and alter the behavior of non-compliant states and entities. These sanctions, designed to restrict or prohibit trade by sea with sanctioned jurisdictions, entities, or individuals, face continuous challenges due to the sophisticated evasion tactics employed by countries like North Korea. As the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) diverts significant resources to circumvent these measures, understanding the nuances of their methodologies becomes imperative for maintaining the integrity of global trade systems. The DPRK, one of the most sanctioned nations globally, has developed an intricate network to facilitate its trade in illicit goods, ensuring the flow of revenue from designated activities continues unabated. Given its geographic and economic conditions, North Korea predominantly relies on maritime routes, utilizing foreign ports to route its illicit trade. This reliance on the sea is exploited through various sophisticated methods, including the use of front companies, falsification of documentation, commingling of bulk cargos, and physical alterations to vessels. These tactics enable the DPRK to navigate through the gaps in regulatory frameworks and lax oversight, effectively undermining international sanctions regimes Maritime sanctions carry significant implications for global trade, imposing heightened risks in the maritime domain. The deceptive practices employed not only by the DPRK but also by other high-risk jurisdictions, necessitate a comprehensive understanding of UN targeted sanctions. For stakeholders in the maritime sector—including maritime authorities, vessel owners, shipping companies, flag registries, and financial institutions serving the shipping industry—awareness and compliance are paramount. Violations can lead to severe consequences, including reputational damage, sanctions, hefty fines, and even imprisonment. To mitigate risks associated with these deceptive practices, it is crucial for maritime sector stakeholders to employ rigorous due diligence and regulatory compliance screening measures. Effective sanctions compliance serves as a protective shield against legal, financial, and reputational risks, preventing exploitation by international bad actors. This requires not only a deep understanding of the sanctions landscape but also the capability to identify and manage risks through informed decision-making and proactive risk management practices. As the DPRK and other sanctioned entities continue to evolve their sanctions evasion tactics, the international community must enhance its collective efforts to demystify and counter these practices. By leveraging more stringent compliance measures, stakeholders can safeguard against the illicit use of the maritime domain, reinforcing the effectiveness of maritime sanctions as a tool for global security. This paper seeks to dissect North Korea's adaptive strategies in the face of maritime sanctions. By examining up-to-date, geographically, and temporally relevant case studies, it aims to shed light on the primary nodes through which Pyongyang evades sanctions and smuggles goods via third-party ports. The goal is to propose multi-level interaction strategies, ranging from governmental interventions to localized enforcement mechanisms, to counteract these evasion tactics.

Keywords: maritime, maritime sanctions, international sanctions, compliance, risk

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Authors: Najla Kamergi

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In a world context of increasing interest in environmental issues, this paper investigates the effect of agri-environmental regulations heterogeneity on the volume of crop commodities’ exports using a theoretically justified gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) for the 2003–2013 period. Our findings show that the difference in exporter and importer environmental regulations is more relevant to agricultural trade than trade agreements. In fact, the environmental gap between the two partners is decreasing slightly but significantly crop commodities’ exports according to our results. We also note that the sector of fruit and vegetables is more sensitive to this determinant, unlike cereals that remain relatively less affected. Furthermore, high-income countries have more tendency to trade with countries characterized by similar environmental stringency. Further results show that the BRICS are clearly importing from developed countries where the environmental difference is relatively important. It is likely that emerging countries are witnessing a growing demand for high-quality and “green” crop commodities captured by high-income exporters. Surprisingly, our results suggest that low and middle-income countries with the same level of environmental stringency are more likely to trade crop commodities.

Keywords: agricultural trade, environment, gravity model, food crops, agri-environmental efficiency, DEA

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Authors: Mohamed Gherbi

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The informal trade has invaded the Algerian cities, especially in their peripherals. About 1368 informal markets have been registrated during 2013 where the important ones are known by Doubaï Markets. They appeared since the adoption of the new system of the economy market in 1990. It permitted the intervention of new actors: the importers but also the fake ones. The majority of them were 'ex-Trabendistes' who have chosen to settle and invest in big and small cities of center and east of Algeria, mainly Algiers, El Eulma, Aïn El Fekroun, Tadjnenent, and Aïn M’lila. This study will focus on the case of the city of El Eulma which contains more of 1000 importers (most of them are fake). They have changed the image and architecture of some important streets of the city, without respecting rules of urbanism such as those included in the building permit for instance. The case of 'Doubaï' place in El Eulma illustrates this situation. This area is not covered by a Soil Occupation Plan (responsible of the design of urban spaces), even if this last covers other zones nearby surrounding of it. These importers helped by the wholesale and retail traders installed in 'Doubaï' place, have converted spaces inside and outside of residential buildings in deposits and sales of goods. They have squatted sidewalks to expose their goods imported predominantly from the South-East Asian countries. The scenery that reigns resembles partly to the bazaar of the Middle East and Chinese cities like Yiwu. These signs characterize the local ambiance and give the particularity to this part of the city. A customer tide from different cities and outside of Algeria comes daily to visit this district. The other zones surrounding have underwent the same change and have followed the model of 'Doubaï' place. Consequently, the mechanical movement has finished by stifling an important part of the city and the prices of land and real estate have reached exorbitant values and can be compared to prices charged in Paris due to the rampant speculation that has reached alarming dimensions. Similarly, renting commercial premises did not escape this logic. This paper will explain the reasons responsible of this change, the logic of importers through their acts in different spaces of the city.

Keywords: Doubaï place, design of urban spaces, fake importers, informal trade

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Authors: Taeho Park, Ming Zhou, Sangryul Shim

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With the emergence of the global economy, today’s business environment is getting more competitive than ever in the past. And many supply chain (SC) strategies and operations have significantly been altered over the past decade to overcome more complexities and risks imposed onto the global business. First, offshoring and outsourcing are more adopted as operational strategies. Manufacturing continues to move to better locations for enhancing competitiveness. Second, international operations are a challenge to a company’s SC system. Third, the products traded in the SC system are not just physical goods, but also digital goods (e.g., software, e-books, music, video materials). There are three main flows involved in fulfilling the activities in the SC system: physical flow, information flow, and financial flow. An advance of the Internet and electronic communication technologies has enabled companies to perform the flows of SC activities in electronic formats, resulting in the advent of an electronic supply chain management (e-SCM) system. A SC system for digital goods is somewhat different from the supply chain system for physical goods. However, it involves many similar or identical SC activities and flows. For example, like the production of physical goods, many third parties are also involved in producing digital goods for the production of components and even final products. This research aims at identifying process flows of both physical and digital goods in a SC system, and then investigating all risk elements involved in the physical, information, and financial flows during the fulfilment of SC activities. There are many risks inherent in the e-SCM system. Some risks may have severe impact on a company’s business, and some occur frequently but are not detrimental enough to jeopardize a company. Thus, companies should assess the impact and frequency of those risks, and then prioritize them in terms of their severity, frequency, budget, and time in order to be carefully maintained. We found risks involved in the global trading of physical and digital goods in four different categories: environmental risk, strategic risk, technological risk, and operational risk. And then the significance of those risks was investigated through a survey. The survey asked companies about the frequency and severity of the identified risks. They were also asked whether they had faced those risks in the past. Since the characteristics and supply chain flows of digital goods are varying industry by industry and country by country, it is more meaningful and useful to analyze risks by industry and country. To this end, more data in each industry sector and country should be collected, which could be accomplished in the future research.

Keywords: digital goods, e-SCM, risk analysis, supply chain flows

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Authors: Ayman Hassouna

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Gaza was famous in the history of trade, because it lies at the end of overland trade route, then the goods transferred by Gazzian merchants to different places around the Mediterranean, so it is described as ‘Mediterranean port of Arabs’, but Gaza is not located directly at the sea shore, so it is fortified by two ports: the first is Anthedon, and second is Maiomas. It is possible to dig in Anthedon but it is too difficult to do that in Maiomas because the site is full of modern buildings. Archaeological excavations at Anthedon's port provided us much archaeological and historical information about cooperation between Anthedon's port and different places at the Mediterranean basin. This research speaks about the roots of Anthedon's name, and it is related with other names in Greek land, by use different dictionaries language, and produce historical introduction were covering the ages beginning from the Iron Age to Greek, Roman and Byzantine periods. Then the study reviewed the most important architectural discoveries in the site, and highlighted the relationship with the civilizations' ports of the Mediterranean basin by studying number of artefacts pottery were imported from different places as Cyprus, Greece, Italy, North Africa, Carthage and Tripoli workshops. On the other hand, the archaeologists discovered some of local pottery made in Gaza at different sites on the Mediterranean basin which confirms the relationship of Gaza merchants with those areas. At the end of this study, there are some conclusions and recommendations about the site.

Keywords: ancient port of Gaza, pottery typology, Mediterranean basin ports, Palestine archaeology

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

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International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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Authors: Łukasz Ambroziak

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Although the impact of the production fragmentation on trade flows has been examined many times since the 1990s, the research was not comprehensive because of the limitations in traditional trade statistics. Early 2010s the complex databases containing world input-output tables (or indicators calculated on their basis) has made available. It increased the possibilities of examining the production sharing in the world. The trade statistic in value-added terms enables us better to estimate trade changes resulted from the internationalisation and globalisation as well as benefits of the countries from international trade. In the literature, there are many research studies on this topic. Unfortunately, trade in value added of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been so far insufficiently studied. Thus, the aim of the paper is to present changes in value added trade of the CEECs (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) in the period of 1995-2011. The concept 'trade in value added' or 'value added trade' is defined as the value added of a country which is directly and indirectly embodied in final consumption of another country. The typical question would be: 'How much value added is created in a country due to final consumption in the other countries?' The data will be downloaded from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The structure of this paper is as follows. First, theoretical and methodological aspects related to the application of the input-output tables in the trade analysis will be studied. Second, a brief survey of the empirical literature on this topic will be presented. Third, changes in exports and imports in value added of the CEECs will be analysed. A special attention will be paid to the differences in bilateral trade balances using traditional trade statistics (in gross terms) on one side, and value added statistics on the other. Next, in order to identify factors influencing value added exports and value added imports of the CEECs the generalised gravity model, based on panel data, will be used. The dependent variables will be value added exports and imports. The independent variables will be, among others, the level of GDP of trading partners, the level of GDP per capita of trading partners, the differences in GDP per capita, the level of the FDI inward stock, the geographical distance, the existence (or non-existence) of common border, the membership (or not) in preferential trade agreements or in the EU. For comparison, an estimation will also be made based on exports and imports in gross terms. The initial research results show that the gravity model better explained determinants of trade in value added than gross trade (R2 in the former is higher). The independent variables had the same direction of impact both on value added exports/imports and gross exports/imports. Only value of coefficients differs. The most difference concerned geographical distance. It had smaller impact on trade in value added than gross trade.

Keywords: central and eastern European countries, gravity model, input-output tables, trade in value added

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Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Meddi Mohamed

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The results of applying the model WEAP 21 or 'Water Evaluation and Planning System' in Upper and Middle Cheliff are presented in cartographic and graphic forms by considering two scenarios: -Reference scenario 1961-1990, -Climate change scenarios (low and high) for 2020 and 2050. These scenarios are presented together in the results and compared them to know the impact on aquatic systems and water resources. For the low scenario for 2050, a decrease in the rate of runoff / infiltration will be 81.4 to 3.7 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. While for the high scenario for 2050, the reduction will be 87.2 to 78.9 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. Comparing the two scenarios, shows that the water supplied will increase by 216.7 Hm3 to 596 Hm3 up to 2050 if we do not take account of climate change. Whereas, if climate change will decrease step by step: from 2010 to 2026: for the climate change scenario (high scenario) by 2050, water supplied from 346 Hm3 to 361 Hm3. That of the reference scenario (1961-1990) will increase to 379.7 Hm3 in 2050. This is caused by the increased demand (increased population, irrigated area, etc ). The balance water management basin is positive for the different Horizons and different situations. If we do not take account of climate change will be the outflow of 5881.4 Hm3. This excess at the basin can be used as part of a transfer for example.

Keywords: balance water, management basin, climate change scenario, Upper and Middle Cheliff

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Authors: Ayalkibet Mekonnen, Adane Abebe

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In hydrological cycle there are many water-related human interventions that modify the natural systems. Rainwater harvesting is one such intervention that involves harnessing of water in the upstream. Water harvesting used in upstream prevents water runoff on downstream mainly disturbance on biodiversity and ecosystems. The main objectives of the study are to assess the effects of water harvesting technologies on downstream water availability in the Woreda. To address the above problem, SWAT model, cost-benefit ratio and optimal control approach was used to analyse the hydrological and socioeconomic impact and tradeoffs on water availability of the community, respectively. The downstream impacts of increasing water consumption in the upstream rain-fed areas of the Bilate and Shala Catchment are simulated using the semi-distributed SWAT model. The two land use scenarios tested at sub basin levels (1) conventional land use represents the current land use practice (Agri-CON) and (2) in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH), improving soil water availability through rainwater harvesting land use scenario. The simulated water balance results showed that the highest peak mean monthly direct flow obtained from Agri-CON land use (127.1 m3/ha), followed by Agri-IRWH land use (11.5 mm) and LULC 2005 (90.1 m3/ha). The Agri-IRWH scenario reduced direct flow by 10% compared to Agri-CON and more groundwater flow contributed by Agri-IRWH (190 m3/ha) than Agri-CON (125 m3/ha). The overall result suggests that the water yield of the Woreda may not be negatively affected by the Agri-IRWH land use scenario. The technology in the Woreda benefited positively having an average benefit cost ratio of 4.2. Water harvesting for domestic use was not optimal that the value of the water per demand harvested was less than the amount of water needed. Storage tanks, series of check dams, gravel filled dams are an alternative solutions for water harvesting.

Keywords: water harvesting, SWAT model, land use scenario, Agri-CON, Agri-IRWH, trade off, benefit cost ratio

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Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting

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Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.

Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade

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Authors: Abdellatif Chebboub

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Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, weather change, danger of climate change

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Authors: Anwar Hussain, Muhammad Iqbal

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The changes in the prices of the agriculture commodities combined with changes in population and agriculture productivity affect farmers’ profitability and standard of living. This study intends to estimate various domestic terms of trade for agriculture sector and also to assess the volatility in the standard of living and profitability of farmers. The terms of trade has been estimated for Pakistan and its provinces using producer prices indices, consumer price indices, input prices indices and quantity indices using the data for the period 1990-91 to 2008-09. The domestic terms of trade of agriculture sector has been improved in terms of both approaches i.e. the ratio of producer prices indices to consumer prices indices and the real per capita income approach. However, the cross province estimates indicated that the terms of trade also improved for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Punjab while Balochistan’s domestic terms of trade deteriorated drastically. In other words the standard of living of the farmers in Pakistan and its provinces except Balochistan improved. Using the input prices, the domestic terms of trade deteriorated for Pakistan as a whole and its provinces as well. This also explores that as a whole the profitability of the farmers reduced during the study period. The farmers pay more prices for inputs as compared to they receive for their produce. This further indicates that the poverty at the gross root level has been increased. Further, summing, the standard of living of the farmers improved but their profitability reduced, which indicates that the farmers do not completely rely on the farm income but also utilize some other sources of income for their livelihood. The study supports to give subsidies on farm inputs so as to improve the profitability of the farmers.

Keywords: agricultural terms of trade, farmers’ profitability, farmers’ standard of living, consumer and producer price indices, quantity indices

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Authors: Fabien Candau, Florian Lafferrere

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This article analyses how an emission policy for vessels (named California’s Ocean-Going Vessel Fuel Rule) was implemented in 2009 in California impacts trade and marine biodiversity. By studying the decrease in emission levels anticipated by the policy, we measure not only the consequences for port activities but also for one of the most important marine ecosystems of the California Coast: the Kelp forests. Using the Difference in Difference (DiD) approach at the Californian ports level, we find that this policy has led to a significant decrease in trade volume during this period. Therefore, we find a positive and significant effect of shipping policy on kelp canopy and biomass growth by controlling the specific climatic and environmental characteristics of California coastal areas.

Keywords: international trade, shipping, marine biodiversity, emission control area

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: Nusrat T. Chowdhury

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Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) is becoming a key to success for profitable businesses. The various activities contributing to carbon emissions in a supply chain are transportation, ordering and holding of inventory. This research work develops a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model that considers the scenario of a supply chain with multiple periods, multiple products and multiple suppliers. The model assumes that the demand is deterministic, the buyer has a limited storage space in each period, the buyer is responsible for the transportation cost, a supplier-dependent ordering cost applies for each period in which an order is placed on a supplier and inventory shortage is permissible. The model provides an optimal decision regarding what products to order, in what quantities, with which suppliers, and in which periods in order to maximize the profit. For the purpose of evaluating the carbon emissions, three different carbon regulating policies i.e., carbon cap-and-trade, the strict cap on carbon emission and carbon tax on emissions, have been considered. The proposed MINLP has been validated using a randomly generated data set.

Keywords: green supply chain, carbon emission, mixed integer non-linear program, inventory shortage, carbon cap-and-trade

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Authors: George-Anokwuru Chioma Chidinma Bernadette

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This paper investigated the effect of trade liberalization on domestic private investment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. To achieve this objective, secondary data on domestic private investment, trade openness, exchange rate and interest rate were sourced from the statistical bulletin of Nigeria’s apex bank. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was used as the main analytical tool. The ARDL Bounds test revealed the existence of long run association among the variables. The results revealed that trade openness and exchange rate have positive and insignificant relationship with domestic private investment both in the long and short runs. At the same time, interest rate has negative relationship with domestic private investment both in the long and short runs. Therefore, it was concluded that there is no significant relationship between trade openness, exchange rate, interest rate and domestic private investment in Nigeria during the period of study. Based on the findings, the study recommended that government should formulate trade policies that will encourage the growth of domestic private investment in Nigeria. To achieve this, government should ensure consistency in trade policies and at the same time strengthen the existing policies to build investors’ confidence. Also, government should make available an investment-friendly environment, as well as monitor real sector operators to ensure that foreign exchange allocations are not diverted. Government should increase capital investment in education, housing, transportation, agriculture, health, power, road construction, national defense, among others that will help the various sectors of the economy to function very well thereby making the business environment friendly thereby enhancing the growth and development of the country.

Keywords: trade openness, domestic private investment, ARDL, exchange rate

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Authors: Naad-E-Ali Sulehria

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Pakistan and china have stepped in a new phase of strengthening fraternity as the dream of economic corridor once discerned by both countries is going to take a pragmatic shape. Pak-China economic corridor an under construction program is termed to be an emerging dynamic of 21st century that anticipates a nexus between Asian continent and Indian Ocean by extending its functions to adjoining East, South, Central and Western Asian regions. The $45.6 billion worth heavily invested megaprojects by China are meant to revive energy sector and building economic infrastructure in Pakistan. Evidently, these projects are a part of ‘southern extension’ of Silk Road economic belt which is going to draw out prominent incentives for both countries particularly bolstering China to acquire influential dominance over the regional trade and beyond. In pursuit to adhere, by these progressive plans both countries have began working on their respective assignments. This article discusses the economical development programs under China’s peripheral diplomacy regarding its region-specific-approach to accumulate trade of Persian Gulf and access the landlocked Central Asian states through Pakistan in a sublimate context to break US encirclement of Asia. Pakistan’s utmost preference to utilize its strategic channel as a trade hub to become an emerging economy and surpass its arch-rival India for strategic concerns is contemplated accordingly. The needs and feasibility of the economic gateway and the dividends it can provide in the contemporary scenario are examined carefully and analysis is drawn upon the future prospects of the Pakistan-China Economic corridor once completed.

Keywords: pak-china economic corridor (PCEC), central asian republic states (CARs), new silk road economic belt, gawadar

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Authors: Andre C Jordaan

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The end of the Cold War and rivalry between super powers has changed the nature of military build-up in many countries. A call from international institutions like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reduce the levels of military expenditure was the order of the day. However, this bid to cut military expenditure has not been forthright. Recently, active armed conflicts occurred in at least 46 states in 2021 with 8 in the Americas, 9 in Asia and Oceania, 3 in Europe, 8 in the Middle East and North Africa and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Global military expenditure in 2022 was estimated to be US$2,2 trillion, representing 2.2 per cent of global gross domestic product. Particularly sharp rises in military spending have followed in African countries and the Middle East. Global military expenditure currently follows two divergent trends, either a declining trend in the West caused mainly by austerity, efforts to control budget deficits and the wrapping up of prolonged wars. However, some parts of the world shows an increasing trend on the back of security concerns, geopolitical ambitions and some internal political factors. Conflict related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa alone increased by 19 per cent between 2020 and 2021. The interaction between military expenditure (read conflict) and international trade is generally the cause of much debate. Some argue that countries’ fear of losing trade opportunities causes political decision makers to refrain from engaging in conflict when important trading partners are involved. However, three main arguments are always present when discussing the relationship between military expenditure or conflicts and international trade: Free trade could promote peaceful cooperation, it could trigger tension between trading blocs and partners, and trade could have no effect because conflict is based on issues that are more important. Military expenditure remains an important element of the overall government expenditure in many African countries. On the other hand, numerous researchers perceive increased international trade to be one of the main factors promoting economic growth in these countries. The purpose of this paper is therefore to determine what effect, if any, exist between the level of military expenditure and international trade within a selection of 19 African countries. Applying an augmented gravity model to explore the relationship between military expenditure and international trade, evidence is found to confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between these two variables. It seems that the results are in line with the Liberal school of thought where trade is seen as an instrument of conflict prevention. Trade is therefore perceived as a symptom of peace and not a cause thereof. In general, conflict or rumors of conflict tend to reduce trade. If conflict did not impede trade, economic agents would be indifferent to risk. Many claim that trade brings peace, however, it seems that it is rather peace that brings trade. From the results, it appears that trade reduces the risk of conflict and that conflict reduces trade.

Keywords: African countries, conflict, international trade, military expenditure

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Authors: Biniam Tedros Kahsay, Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay

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Eritrea is a country in the East of Africa. The country is a neighbor of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Sudan and is bordered by the Red Sea. The country declared its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Thus, Eritrea has a lot of commonalities with the Northern Part of Ethiopia's tradition, religion, and languages. Many economists suggested that Eritrea is in a very strategic position for world trade roots and has an impact on geopolitics. This study focused on identifying the most important factor in boosting the Eritrean Economy. The paper collected big secondary data from the World Bank, International Trade and Tariff Data (WTO), East African Community (EAC), Ethiopian Statistical Agency (ESA), and the National Statistics Office (Eritrea). Economists consider economic and population growth in determining trade belts in East Africa. One of the most important Trade Belt that will potentially boost the Eritrean economy is the root of Eritrea (Massawa)->Eritea, (Asmara)->Tigray, (Humora)->Tigray, (Dansha)-> Gondar-> Gojjam-> Benshangual Gumuz => {Oromia, South Sudan}->Uganda. The estimate showed that this is one of the biggest trade roots in East Africa and has a participation of more than 150 million people. We employed various econometric analyses to predict the GDP of Eritrea, considering the future trade belts in East Africa. The result showed that the economy of Eritrea from the Trade Belt will have an elasticity estimate of 65.87% of the GDP of Ethiopia, 3.32% of the GDP of South Sudan, and 0.09% of the GDP of Uganda. The result showed that the existence of war has an elasticity of -93% to the GDP of the country. Thus, if Eritrea wants to strengthen its economy from the East African Trade Belt, the country needs to permanently avoid war in the region. Essentially, the country needs to establish a collaborative platform with the Northern part of Ethiopia (Tigray). Thus, establishing a mutual relationship with Tigray will boost the Eritrean economy. In that regard, Eritrean scholars and policymakers need to work on establishing the East African Trade Belt to boost their economy.

Keywords: Eritrea, east Africa trade belt, GDP, cointegration analysis, critical path analysis

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Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

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There are a number of factors that determine the growth and development of the country's economy; however, trade and economic relations with other countries are the most important of all these factors. The paper analyzes the trade and economic relations between Georgia and Germany, identifies the impediments caused by the Covid pandemic, and substantiates the need for further economic cooperation between the countries. Research objectives. The objective of the research is to develop recommendations and reveal the prospects of further cooperation between Georgia and Germany based on identifying the problems in the field of trade and economy in the post-crisis situation. The research object is Georgian German economic relations. Germany is Georgia's largest trading partner in the European Union. Georgia and Germany actively cooperate within the framework of international organizations as well. The paper analyzes the multilateral and intensive economic relations between Germany and Georgia; evaluates the investments of German companies in Georgia and the activities of Georgian companies in Germany. Research methods. The paper uses general and specific research methods; in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison, statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend), and other research methods.SWOT analysis is used to determine development opportunities between countries. As a result of the research economic ranking of Georgia and Germany are determined according to the above criteria, the causes of the impediments due to the pandemic are studied; the main problems in the field of trade and economy are identified. The paper provides conclusions on the problems in the trade relations between Georgia and Germany and suggests recommendations regarding the prospects for improving these relations.

Keywords: georgia-germany, trade and economic relations, economic ranking, perspective directions

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Authors: Sakapas Saengchai, Pichamon Chansuchai

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Research Thai- Myanmar Border Trade Promotion Policy, Mae Sai District, Chiang Rai Province The objectives of this study were to study the policy of promoting Thai- Myanmar border trade in Mae Sai district, Chiang Rai province. And suitable models for the development of border trade in Mae Sai. Chiang Rai province This research uses qualitative methodology. The method of collecting data from research papers. Participatory Observation In-depth interviews in which the information is important, the governor of Chiang Rai. Chiang Rai Customs Service Executive Office of Mae Sai Immigration Bureau Maesai Chamber of Commerce and Private Entrepreneurs By specific sampling Data analysis uses content analysis. The study indicated that Border Trade Promotion Policy The direction taken by the government to focus on developing 1. Security is further reducing crime. Smuggling and human trafficking Including the preparation to protect people from terrorism and natural disasters. And cooperation with Burma on border security. 2. The development of wealth is the promotion of investment. The transport links, logistics value chain. Products and services across the Thai-Myanmar border. Improve the regulations and laws to promote fair trade. Convenient and fast 3. Sustainable development is the ability to generate income, quality of life of people in the Thai border to increase continuously. By using balanced natural resources, production and consumption are environmentally friendly. Which featured the participation of all sectors of the public and private sectors in the region to drive the development of the border with Thailand. Chiang Rai province To be more competitive .

Keywords: Border, Trade, Policy, Promote

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Authors: Muhammad Khaliqi, Amzul Rifin, Andriyono Kilat Adhi

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The non-tariff policy could make Indonesian shrimp exports decrease in the international market. This research was aimed to analyze factors affecting Indonesia's exports of shrimp and the impact of SPS and TBT policy on Indonesian shrimp. Factors affecting the exports of Indonesian shrimp were estimated using gravity model. The results showed the GDP of exporters and exchange rate, have a negative influence against the export of Indonesia’s shrimp exports. The GDP of the importers and trade cost have a positive influence against the export of shrimp Indonesia while the SPS policy and TBT don’t affect Indonesia's exports of shrimp in the international market.

Keywords: gravity model, international trade, non-tariff measure, sanitary and phytosanitary, shrimp, technical barriers to trade

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: María Dolores Caro, Eugenio M. Fedriani, Ángel F. Tenorio

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When lorries transport dangerous goods, there exist some legal stipulations in the European Union for assuring the security of the rest of road users as well as of those goods being transported. At this respect, lorry drivers cannot park in usual parking areas, because they must use parking areas with special conditions, including permanent supervision of security personnel. Moreover, drivers are compelled to satisfy additional regulations about resting and driving times, which involve in the practical possibility of reaching the suitable parking areas under these time parameters. The “European Agreement concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road” (ADR) is the basic regulation on transportation of dangerous goods imposed under the recommendations of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. Indeed, nowadays there are no enough parking areas adapted for dangerous goods and no complete study have suggested the best locations to build new areas or to adapt others already existing to provide the areas being necessary so that lorry drivers can follow all the regulations. The goal of this paper is to show how many additional parking areas should be built in the Iberian Peninsula to allow that lorry drivers may park in such areas under their restrictions in resting and driving time. To do so, we have modeled the problem via graph theory and we have applied a new efficient algorithm which determines an optimal solution for the problem of locating new parking areas to complement those already existing in the ADR for the Iberian Peninsula. The solution can be considered minimal since the number of additional parking areas returned by the algorithm is minimal in quantity. Obviously, graph theory is a natural way to model and solve the problem here proposed because we have considered as nodes: the already-existing parking areas, the loading-and-unloading locations and the bifurcations of roads; while each edge between two nodes represents the existence of a road between both nodes (the distance between nodes is the edge's weight). Except for bifurcations, all the nodes correspond to parking areas already existing and, hence, the problem corresponds to determining the additional nodes in the graph such that there are less up to 100 km between two nodes representing parking areas. (maximal distance allowed by the European regulations).

Keywords: dangerous goods, parking areas, Iberian peninsula, graph-based modeling

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Authors: Gideon Ndubuisi

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It is widely acknowledged that the quality of a country’s export matters more decisively than the quantity it exports. Hence, understanding the drivers of exported goods’ quality is a relevant policy question. Among other things, product quality upgrading is a considerable cost uncertainty venture that can be undertaken by an entrepreneur. Once a product is successfully upgraded, however, others can imitate the product, and hence, the returns to the pioneer entrepreneur are socialized. Along with this line, a government policy such as intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection which lessens the non-appropriability problem and incentivizes cost discovery investments becomes both a panacea in addressing the market failure and a sine qua non for an entrepreneur to engage in product quality upgrading. In addendum, product quality upgrading involves complex tasks which often require a lot of knowledge and technology sharing beyond the bounds of the firm thereby creating rooms for knowledge spillovers and imitations. Without an institution that protects upstream suppliers of knowledge and technology, technology masking occurs which bids up marginal production cost and product quality fall. Despite these clear associations between IPRs and product quality upgrading, the surging literature on the drivers of the quality of exported goods has proceeded almost in isolation of IPRs protection as a determinant. Consequently, the current study uses a difference-in-difference method to evaluate the effects of IPRs reforms on the quality of exported goods in 16 developing countries over the sample periods of 1984-2000. The study finds weak evidence that IPRs reforms increase the quality of all exported goods. When the industries are sorted into high and low-patent sensitive industries, however, we find strong indicative evidence that IPRs reform increases the quality of exported goods in high-patent sensitive sectors both in absolute terms and relative to the low-patent sensitive sectors in the post-reform period. We also obtain strong indicative evidence that it brought the quality of exported goods in the high-patent sensitive sectors closer to the quality frontier. Accounting for time-duration effects, these observed effects grow over time. The results are also largely consistent when we consider the sophistication and complexity of exported goods rather than just quality upgrades.

Keywords: exports, export quality, export sophistication, intellectual property rights

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Zofia Romanowska

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Recently there have been significant changes in the Polish energy market. Due to the government's decision to strengthen energy security as well as to strengthen the implementation of the European Union common energy policy, the Polish energy market has been undergoing significant changes. In the face of these, it is necessary to answer the question about the direction the Polish energy rationing sector is going, how wide apart the powers of the state are and also whether the real regulator of energy projects in Poland is not in fact the European Union itself. In order to determine the role of the state as a regulator of the energy market, the study analyses the basic instruments of regulation, i.e. the licenses, permits and permissions to conduct various activities related to the energy market, such as the production and sale of liquid fuels or concessions for trade in natural gas. Bearing in mind that Polish law is part of the widely interpreted European Union energy policy, the legal solutions in neighbouring countries are also being researched, including those made in Germany, a country which plays a key role in the shaping of EU policies. The correct interpretation of the new legislation modifying the current wording of the Energy Law Act, such as obliging the entities engaged in the production and trade of liquid fuels (including abroad) to meet a number of additional requirements for the licensing and providing information to the state about conducted business, plays a key role in the study. Going beyond the legal framework for energy rationing, the study also includes a legal and economic analysis of public and private goods within the energy sector and delves into the subject of effective remedies. The research caused the relationships between progressive rationing introduced by the legislator and the rearrangement rules prevailing on the Polish energy market to be taken note of, which led to the introduction of greater transparency in the sector. The studies refer to the initial conclusion that currently, despite the proclaimed idea of liberalization of the oil and gas market and the opening of market to a bigger number of entities as a result of the newly implanted changes, the process of issuing and controlling the conduction of the concessions will be tightened, guaranteeing to entities greater security of energy supply. In the long term, the effect of the introduced legislative solutions will be the reduction of the amount of entities on the energy market. The companies that meet the requirements imposed on them by the new regulation to cope with the profitability of the business will in turn increase prices for their services, which will be have an impact on consumers' budgets.

Keywords: license, energy law, energy market, public goods, regulator

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Priti Bajpai, Mohammed Shibil

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This paper utilizes a comparative case study design to examine a regional onion market. The particular case of onion markets is used to understand perishable product supply chains. The site for the study is Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Results from a six-month field study are outlined. In particular, the findings suggest that firms should examine adding additional destinations to their supply chain. Further, we argue that utilizing Dubai as a supply chain hub is in certain cases counterproductive. Implications for food supply chains and regional trade are discussed.

Keywords: supply chains, food markets, onion trade, field study

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Gheyzer Villegas, Edgardo Cedeño, Veruska Mata, Edmundo Chauran

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One of the most significant changes that occurred in global commerce was the emergence of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. There is still much debate about the adoption of the economic model based on crypto assets, and myriad international projects and initiatives are being carried out to try and explore the potential that this new field offers. The Hive blockchain is a prime example of this, featuring two use cases: of how trade based on its native currencies can give successful results in the exchange of goods and services and in the financing of social impact projects. Its decentralized management model and visionary administration of its development fund have become a key part of its success.

Keywords: Hive, business, network, blockchain

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Bilge Afşar, Zeynep Karaçor, Burcu Guvenek

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The aim of this study is to examine and analyze the effect of macroeconomic policies on foreign trade. In the study, the effect of the macroeconomic policies applied in Turkey after 2001 on foreign trade was scrutinized carrying out a survey study in the sample of the province Konya. In the survey study, the survey was administered to a total of 209 exporter firms, which are the members of Konya Chamber of Commerce. While 51 of the firms, to which the survey was administered, exported below $ 100,000, 158 of them are the firms exporting above $ 100,000. Survey was realized in the way of face to face interview with the firms in the rate of 79%. 47% of the institutions forming the mass were reached. In forming survey questionnaire, in general, 5-point Likert scale was used. In order to assess the study results, SPSS 15 package program was utilized. In the survey, foreign trade activities of the firms in Konya were analyzed; and the problems they face, while performing foreign trade, and those needing to be carried out for increasing foreign trade volume of Konya were revealed by determining how and at what degree they were affected from the macroeconomic policies applied. Thus, foreign trade structure and state of the province Konya were attempted to be analyzed. In the survey study, it emerges that although the problems Konya faces in foreign trade overlap with the problems across Turkey, the province Konya seems to be affected relatively less from the last crisis with its equity capital in either trade or other areas. Until the year 2008, while Konya is in a position of the province continuously increasing its export, also with the effect of global crisis, in 2009, a fall was seen in the amount of export. The results emerging in the survey study also confirm this case. In parallel with demand inadequacy and recession all over the world, firms experience trouble. However, again according to our survey result, foreign market weight of firms shifted from EU countries to Russia, East Bloc, and Middle East countries. This prevented Konya from negative affecting from EU crisis at maximum level. That is, Russian and Middle East market express significance for Konya. That market is diversified, and being relatively rid of dependence to EU is extremely important in terms of Konya export.

Keywords: economy, foreign trade, economic crise, macro economic politicies

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Dharshini M., Hema N. S.

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The project for the production of aniline is done by providing 295.46 tons per day of nitrobenzene as feed. The material and energy balance calculations for the different equipment like distillation column, heat exchangers, reactor and mixer are carried out with simulation via DWSIM. The conversion of nitrobenzene to aniline by hydrogenation process is considered to be 96% and the total production of the plant was found to be 215 TPD. The cost estimation of the process is carried out to estimate the feasibility of the plant. The net profit and percentage return of investment is estimated to be ₹27 crores and 24.6%. The payback period was estimated to be 4.05 years and the unit production cost is ₹113/kg. A techno-economic analysis was performed for the production of aniline; the result includes economic analysis and sensitivity analysis of critical factors. From economic analysis, larger the plant scale increases the total capital investment and annual operating cost, even though the unit production cost decreases. Uncertainty analysis was performed to predict the influence of economic factors on profitability and the scenario analysis is one way to quantify uncertainty. In scenario analysis the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario are compared with the base case scenario. The best-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 120 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹112.05/kg and the worst-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 60 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹115.9/kg. The base case is closely related to the best case by 99.2% in terms of unit production cost. since the unit production cost is less and the profitability is more with less payback time, it is feasible to construct a plant at this capacity.

Keywords: aniline, nitrobenzene, economic analysis, unit production cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Ngo the Bach

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Vietnam is one of not many Asian countries that have a long-standing and famous tradition of pottery production. Vietnam is also one of three countries including China, Vietnam, and Japan developed strongly the export of ceramics to other countries. In recent decades, the studies of Vietnamese and foreign scholars on Vietnamese trade ceramics as well as Vietnamese foreign trade was initially recorded. The aim of this article is to introduce an overview of the findings situation and research results; the development of Vietnam ceramics and the Vietnamese history of maritime trade with Asian ceramics from the 14th century to the 17th century. Given that, the author systematized materials; carried out the synthetic and analysis for research results of Vietnamese and foreign researchers until now on Vietnamese export ceramics on the basis of the historical sources, archaeological findings discovered from relics in the tombs, relics of residence, relics of trading port inland, and the ancient shipwreck sank in the Asian countries.

Keywords: Vietnamese ceramics, trading, maritime, international

Procedia PDF Downloads 236