Search results for: first passage probability theory

Authors: Luis M. Ribeiro, Jorge Raposo, Ricardo Oliveira, David Caballero, Domingos X. Viegas

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Under the scope of European project WUIWATCH a set of experimental tests on house vulnerability was performed in order to assess the resistance of selected house components during the passage of a forest fire. Among the individual elements most affected by the passage of a wildfire the windows are the ones with greater exposure. In this sense, a set of exploratory experimental tests was designed to assess some particular aspects related to the vulnerability of windows and blinds. At the same time, the importance of leaving them closed (as well as the doors inside a house) during a wild fire was explored in order to give some scientific background to guidelines for homeowners. Three sets of tests were performed: 1. Windows and blinds resistance to heat. Three types of protective blinds were tested (aluminium, PVC and wood) on 2 types of windows (single and double pane). The objective was to assess the structures resistance. 2. The influence of air flow on the transport of burning embers inside a house. A room was built to scale, and placed inside a wind tunnel, with one window and one door on opposite sides. The objective was to assess the importance of leaving an inside door opened on the probability of burning embers entering the room. 3. The influence of the dimension of openings on a window or door related to the probability of ignition inside a house. The objective was to assess the influence of different window openings in relation to the amount of burning particles that can enter a house. The main results were: 1. The purely radiative heat source provides 1.5 KW/m2 of heat impact in the structure, while the real fire generates 10 Kw/m2. When protected by the blind, the single pane window reaches 30ºC on both sides, and the double pane window has a differential of 10º from the side facing the heat (30ºC) and the opposite side (40ºC). Unprotected window constantly increases temperature until the end of the test. Window blinds reach considerably higher temperatures. PVC loses its consistency above 150ºC and melts. 2. Leaving the inside door closed results in a positive pressure differential of +1Pa from the outside to the inside, inhibiting the air flow. Opening the door in half or full reverts the pressure differential to -6 and -8 times respectively, favouring the air flow from the outside to the inside. The number of particles entering the house follows the same tendency. 3. As the bottom opening in a window increases from 0,5 cm to 4 cm the number of particles that enter the house per second also increases greatly. From 5 cm until 80cm there is no substantial increase in the number of entering particles. This set of exploratory tests proved to be an added value in supporting guidelines for home owners, regarding self-protection in WUI areas.

Keywords: forest fire, wildland urban interface, house vulnerability, house protective elements

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Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

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In this paper, we propose an approach of detecting the behavior of the viewers of a TV program in a non-controlled environment. The experiment we propose is based on the use of three types of connected objects (smartphone, smart watch, and a connected remote control). 23 participants were observed while watching their TV programs during three phases: before, during and after watching a TV program. Their behaviors were detected using an approach based on The Dempster Shafer Theory (DST) in two phases. The first phase is to approximate dynamically the mass functions using an approach based on the correlation coefficient. The second phase is to calculate the approximate mass functions. To approximate the mass functions, two approaches have been tested: the first approach was to divide each features data space into cells; each one has a specific probability distribution over the behaviors. The probability distributions were computed statistically (estimated by empirical distribution). The second approach was to predict the TV-viewing behaviors through the use of classifiers algorithms and add uncertainty to the prediction based on the uncertainty of the model. Results showed that mixing the fusion rule with the computation of the initial approximate mass functions using a classifier led to an overall of 96%, 95% and 96% success rate for the first, second and third TV-viewing phase respectively. The results were also compared to those found in the literature. This study aims to anticipate certain actions in order to maintain the attention of TV viewers towards the proposed TV programs with usual connected objects, taking into account the various uncertainties that can be generated.

Keywords: Iot, TV-viewing behaviors identification, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: Mehran Naghizaderokni, Asscar Janalizadechobbasty

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This paper explores probabilistic method for assessing the liquefaction potential of sandy soils. The current simplified methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential use a deterministic safety factor in order to determine whether liquefaction will occur or not. However, these methods are unable to determine the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor. A solution to this problem can be found by reliability analysis.This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular certain liquefaction analysis method. The proposed probabilistic method is formulated based on the results of reliability analyses of 190 field records and observations of soil performance against liquefaction. The results of the present study show that confidence coefficient greater and smaller than 1 does not mean safety and/or liquefaction in cadence for liquefaction, and for assuring liquefaction probability, reliability based method analysis should be used. This reliability method uses the empirical acceleration attenuation law in the Chalos area to derive the probability density distribution function and the statistics for the earthquake-induced cyclic shear stress ratio (CSR). The CSR and CRR statistics are used in continuity with the first order and second moment method to calculate the relation between the liquefaction probability, the safety factor and the reliability index. Based on the proposed method, the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor can be easily calculated. The influence of some of the soil parameters on the liquefaction probability can be quantitatively evaluated.

Keywords: liquefaction, reliability analysis, chalos area, civil and structural engineering

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares

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Authors: Hamid Ahmadi, Amirreza Ghaffari

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Fatigue life of tubular joints in offshore structures is not only dependent on the value of hot-spot stress, but is also significantly influenced by the through-the-thickness stress distribution characterized by the degree of bending (DoB). The DoB exhibits considerable scatter calling for greater emphasis in accurate determination of its governing probability distribution which is a key input for the fatigue reliability analysis of a tubular joint. Although the tubular X-joints are commonly found in offshore jacket structures, as far as the authors are aware, no comprehensive research has been carried out on the probability distribution of the DoB in tubular X-joints. What has been used so far as the probability distribution of the DoB in reliability analyses is mainly based on assumptions and limited observations, especially in terms of distribution parameters. In the present paper, results of parametric equations available for the calculation of the DoB have been used to develop probability distribution models for the DoB in the chord member of tubular X-joints subjected to four types of bending loads. Based on a parametric study, a set of samples was prepared and density histograms were generated for these samples using Freedman-Diaconis method. Twelve different probability density functions (PDFs) were fitted to these histograms. The maximum likelihood method was utilized to determine the parameters of fitted distributions. In each case, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. Finally, after substituting the values of estimated parameters for each distribution, a set of fully defined PDFs have been proposed for the DoB in tubular X-joints subjected to bending loads.

Keywords: tubular X-joint, degree of bending (DoB), probability density function (PDF), Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, minimum flows, probability distribution

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

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Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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Authors: Anthony Coogan

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Born’s probability interpretation of wave functions would have led to nearly identical results had he chosen a frequency interpretation instead. Logically, Born may have assumed that only one electron was under consideration, making it nonsensical to propose a frequency wave. Author’s suggestion: the actual experimental results were not of a single electron; rather, they were groups of reflected x-ray photons. The vertical waveform used by Scrhödinger in his Particle in the Box Theory makes sense if it was intended to represent a quantum leap. The author extended the single vertical panel to form a bar chart: separate panels would represent different energy levels. The proposed bar chart would be populated by reflected photons. Expansion of basic ideas: Part of Scrhödinger’s ‘Particle in the Box’ theory may be valid despite negative criticism. The waveform used in the diagram is vertical, which may seem absurd because real waves decay at a measurable rate, rather than instantaneously. However, there may be one notable exception. Supposedly, following from the theory, the Uncertainty Principle was derived – may a Quantum Leap not be represented as an instantaneous waveform? The great Scrhödinger must have had some reason to suggest a vertical waveform if the prevalent belief was that they did not exist. Complex wave forms representing a particle are usually assumed to be continuous. The actual observations made were x-ray photons, some of which had struck an electron, been reflected, and then moved toward a detector. From Born’s perspective, doing similar work the years in question 1926-7, he would also have considered a single electron – leading him to choose a probability distribution. Probability Distributions appear very similar to Frequency Distributions, but the former are considered to represent the likelihood of future events. Born’s interpretation of the results of quantum experiments led (or perhaps misled) many researchers into claiming that humans can influence events just by looking at them, e.g. collapsing complex wave functions by 'looking at the electron to see which slit it emerged from', while in reality light reflected from the electron moved in the observer’s direction after the electron had moved away. Astronomers may say that they 'look out into the universe' but are actually using logic opposed to the views of Newton and Hooke and many observers such as Romer, in that light carries information from a source or reflector to an observer, rather the reverse. Conclusion: Due to the controversial nature of these ideas, especially its implications about the nature of complex numbers used in applications in science and engineering, some time may pass before any consensus is reached.

Keywords: complex wave functions not necessary, frequency distributions instead of wave functions, information carried by light, sketch graph of uncertainty principle

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

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This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

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Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

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This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: ruin probability, compound poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions

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Authors: Peter Akayuure, Michael Johnson Nabie

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Similar to many colonized nations in the world, one indelible mark left by colonial masters after Ghana’s independence in 1957 has been the fact that many contexts used to teach statistics and probability concepts are often alien and do not resonate with the social domain of our indigenous Ghanaian child. This has seriously limited the understanding, discoveries, and applications of mathematics for national developments. With the recent curriculum demands of making the Ghanaian child mathematically literate, this qualitative study involved video recordings and mathematical analysis of play sessions of an indigenous girl game called Ampe with the aim to demystify the concepts in probability theorem, which is applied in mathematics related fields of study. The mathematical analysis shows that the game of Ampe, which is widely played by school girls in Ghana, is suitable for learning concepts of the probability theorems. It was also revealed that as a girl game, the use of Ampe provides good lessons to educators, textbook writers, and teachers to rethink about the selection of mathematics tasks and learning contexts that are sensitive to gender. As we undertake to transform teacher education and student learning, the use of indigenous games should be critically revisited.

Keywords: Ampe, mathematical analysis, probability theorem, Ghanaian girl game

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Authors: Rui Yin, Haojie Wang, Xun Li

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Recently, mainstream dense retrieval methods have obtained state-of-the-art results on some datasets and tasks. However, they require large amounts of training data, which is not available in most domains. The severe performance degradation of dense retrievers on new data domains has limited the use of dense retrieval methods to only a few domains with large training datasets. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised domain-adaptive approach based on query generation. First, a generative model is used to generate relevant queries for each passage in the target corpus, and then the generated queries are used for mining negative passages. Finally, the query-passage pairs are labeled with a cross-encoder and used to train a domain-adapted dense retriever. Experiments show that our approach is more robust than previous methods in target domains that require less unlabeled data.

Keywords: dense retrieval, query generation, unsupervised training, text retrieval

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Authors: Boumediene Hamzi, Turky N. AlOtaiby, Saleh AlShebeili, Arwa AlAnqary

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We introduce a data-driven method for seizure detection drawing on recent progress in Machine Learning. The method is based on embedding probability measures in a high (or infinite) dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is computed. The MMD is metric between probability measures that are computed as the difference between the means of probability measures after being embedded in an RKHS. Working in RKHS provides a convenient, general functional-analytical framework for theoretical understanding of data. We apply this approach to the problem of seizure detection.

Keywords: kernel methods, maximum mean discrepancy, seizure detection, machine learning

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Authors: Carolina Senabre Blanes, Sergio Valero Verdú, Emilio Velasco SáNchez

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This research objective is to obtain a percentage of success for each Ministry of Transport (MOT) facilities of each city of the Alicante region from Comunidad Valenciana from Spain by comparing results obtained by using different brake testers. It has been studied which types of brake tester are being used at each city nowadays. Different types of brake testers are used at each city, and the mechanical engineering staffs from the Miguel Hernández University have studied differences between all of them, and have obtained measures from each type. A percentage of probability of success will be given to each MOT station when you try to pass the exam with the same car with same characteristics and the same wheels. In other words, parameters of the vehicle have been controlled to be the same at all tests; therefore, brake measurements variability will be due to the type of testers could be used at the MOT station. A percentage of probability to pass the brake exam at each city will be given by comparing results of tests.

Keywords: brake tester, Mot station, probability to pass the exam, brake tester characteristics

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Authors: Mohammad Ahmadi

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Argumentative writing is a highly opinion-based form of discourse that necessitates the ability to address commonly held opinions (endoxa). To enhance the development of persuasive, argumentative essays, the incorporation of classical rhetorical theory, with a specific focus on topics related to the canon of Invention (inventio), can be advantageous. This research investigates the practical application of rhetorical theory in teaching students how to construct compelling argumentative essays. The fundamental premise of this study is the limited familiarity of rhetoric and composition students with rhetorical theory. Consequently, this paper presents an effective pedagogical approach to introduce rhetorical theory to students, beginning from a foundational level. It delineates the procedures and progression that educators should adopt to elucidate and facilitate students' comprehension of rhetorical theory while demonstrating its utilization in the writing of an argumentative essay.

Keywords: argumentative essay, rhetorical theory, pedagogy, invention

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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Authors: Béchir Wanassi, Béchir Azzouz, Taher Halimi, Mohamed Ben Hassen

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Mechanical recycling of post-industrial cotton yarn wastes, as well as the effects of passage number on the properties of reclaimed fibers, have been investigated. A new Modified Fiber Quality Index (MFQI) and Spinning Consistency Index (MSCI) for the characterization of the quality are presented. This index gives the real potential of spinnability according to its physical properties. The best quality of reclaimed fibers (after 7th passage) was used to produce rotor yarns. 100% recycling cotton yarns were produced in open-end spinning system with different rotor speed (i.e. 65000, 70000, and 80000 rpm), opening roller speed (i.e. 7700, 8200, and 8700 rpm) and twist factor (i.e. 137, 165, and 183). The effects of spinning parameters were investigated to evaluate a 100% recycling cotton yarns quality (TQI, hairiness, thin places, and thick places) using DOE method.

Keywords: cotton wastes, DOE, mechanical recycling, rotor spinning

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Authors: Jesika A. Walker, Mohammed Aswad, Guy Lacroix, Denis Cousineau

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There is a fundamental disconnect between the experience of time passing and the chronometric units by which time is quantified. Specifically, there appears to be no relationship between the passage of time judgments (PoTJs) and verbal duration estimates at short durations (e.g., < 2000 milliseconds). When a duration is longer than several minutes, however, evidence suggests that a slower feeling of time passing is predictive of overestimation. Might the length of a task moderate the relation between PoTJs and duration estimates? Similarly, the estimation paradigm (prospective vs. retrospective) and the mental effort demanded of a task (task demand) have both been found to influence duration estimates. However, only a handful of experiments have investigated these effects for tasks of long durations, and the results have been mixed. Thus, might the length of a task also moderate the effects of the estimation paradigm and task demand on duration estimates? To investigate these questions, 273 participants performed either an easy or difficult visual and memory search task for either eight or 58 minutes, under prospective or retrospective instructions. Afterward, participants provided a duration estimate in minutes, followed by a PoTJ on a Likert scale (1 = very slow, 7 = very fast). A 2 (prospective vs. retrospective) × 2 (eight minutes vs. 58 minutes) × 2 (high vs. low difficulty) between-subjects ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between task demand and task duration on PoTJs, p = .02. Specifically, time felt faster in the more challenging task, but only in the eight-minute condition, p < .01. Duration estimates were transformed into RATIOs (estimate/actual duration) to standardize estimates across durations. An ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between estimation paradigm and task duration, p = .03. Specifically, participants overestimated the task more if they were given prospective instructions, but only in the eight-minute task. Surprisingly, there was no effect of task difficulty on duration estimates. Thus, the demands of a task may influence ‘feeling of time’ and ‘estimation time’ differently, contributing to the existing theory that these two forms of time judgement rely on separate underlying cognitive mechanisms. Finally, a significant main effect of task duration was found for both PoTJs and duration estimates (ps < .001). Participants underestimated the 58-minute task (m = 42.5 minutes) and overestimated the eight-minute task (m = 10.7 minutes). Yet, they reported the 58-minute task as passing significantly slower on a Likert scale (m = 2.5) compared to the eight-minute task (m = 4.1). In fact, a significant correlation was found between PoTJ and duration estimation (r = .27, p <.001). This experiment thus provides evidence for a compensatory effect at longer durations, in which people underestimate a ‘slow feeling condition and overestimate a ‘fast feeling condition. The results are discussed in relation to heuristics that might alter the relationship between these two variables when conditions range from several minutes up to almost an hour.

Keywords: duration estimates, long durations, passage of time judgements, task demands

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Authors: Jialin Wu, Zhiwei Lian, Jieyu Tang, Jingyun Shen

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Tornado is a serious and unpredictable natural disaster, which has an important impact on people's production and life. The probability of being hit by tornadoes in China was analyzed considering the principles of tornado formation. Then some suggestions on layout and shapes for newly-built buildings were provided combined with the characteristics of tornado wind fields. Fuzzy clustering and inverse closeness methods were used to evaluate the probability levels of tornado risks in various provinces based on classification and ranking. GIS was adopted to display the results. Finally, wind field single-vortex tornado was studied to discuss the optimized design of rural low-rise houses in Yancheng, Jiangsu as an example. This paper may provide enough data to support building and urban design in some specific regions.

Keywords: tornado probability, computational fluid dynamics, fuzzy mathematics, optimal design

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Authors: Li Minghui, Min Shaorong, Zhang Jun

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This paper aims for studying the operational efficiency of surface warship’s motorized evasion to acoustic homing torpedo. It orderly developed trajectory model, self-guide detection model, vessel evasion model, as well as anti-torpedo error model in three-dimensional space to make up for the deficiency of precious researches analyzing two-dimensionally confrontational models. Then, making use of the Monte Carlo method, it carried out the simulation for the confrontation process of evasion in the environment of MATLAB. At last, it quantitatively analyzed the main factors which determine vessel’s survival probability. The results show that evasion relative bearing and speed will affect vessel’s survival probability significantly. Thus, choosing appropriate evasion relative bearing and speed according to alarming range and alarming relative bearing for torpedo, improving alarming range and positioning accuracy and reducing the response time against torpedo will improve the vessel’s survival probability significantly.

Keywords: acoustic homing torpedo, vessel evasion, monte carlo method, torpedo defense, vessel's survival probability

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Authors: M. Shoukath Ali, Rajendra Prasad Singh

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Game Theory approaches and their application in improving the performance of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are discussed in this paper. The mathematical modeling and analysis of WSNs may have low success rate due to the complexity of topology, modeling, link quality, etc. However, Game Theory is a field, which can efficiently use to analyze the WSNs. Game Theory is related to applied mathematics that describes and analyzes interactive decision situations. Game theory has the ability to model independent, individual decision makers whose actions affect the surrounding decision makers. The outcome of complex interactions among rational entities can be predicted by a set of analytical tools. However, the rationality demands a stringent observance to a strategy based on measured of perceived results. Researchers are adopting game theory approaches to model and analyze leading wireless communication networking issues, which includes QoS, power control, resource sharing, etc.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, game theory, cooperative game theory, non-cooperative game theory

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 548

Authors: Aneia Rajiel Busmente, Renato Gunio Jr., Jazin Mautante, Denise Joy Mendoza, Raymond Benedict Tagorio, Gabriel Uy, Natalie Quinn Valenzuela, Ma. Elayza Villa, Francine Yezha Vizcarra, Sofia Madelle Yapan, Eugene Kurt Yboa

Abstract:

COVID-19’s rapid spread caused a dramatic change in the nation, especially the educational system. The Department of Education was forced to adopt a practical learning platform without neglecting health, a printed modular distance learning. The Philippines' K–12 curriculum includes Statistics and Probability as one of the key courses as it offers students the knowledge to evaluate and comprehend data. Due to student’s difficulty and lack of understanding of the concepts of Statistics and Probability in Normal Distribution. The Self-Learning Module in Statistics and Probability about the Normal Distribution created by the Department of Education has several problems, including many activities, unclear illustrations, and insufficient examples of concepts which enables learners to have a difficulty accomplishing the module. The purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of self-learning module on the academic performance of students in the subject Statistics and Probability, it will also explore students’ perception towards the quality of created Self-Learning Module in Statistics and Probability. Despite the availability of Self-Learning Modules in Statistics and Probability in the Philippines, there are still few literatures that discuss its effectiveness in improving the performance of Senior High School students in Statistics and Probability. In this study, a Self-Learning Module on Normal Distribution is evaluated using a quasi-experimental design. STEM students in Grade 11 from National University's Nazareth School will be the study's participants, chosen by purposive sampling. Google Forms will be utilized to find at least 100 STEM students in Grade 11. The research instrument consists of 20-item pre- and post-test to assess participants' knowledge and performance regarding Normal Distribution, and a Likert scale survey to evaluate how the students perceived the self-learning module. Pre-test, post-test, and Likert scale surveys will be utilized to gather data, with Jeffreys' Amazing Statistics Program (JASP) software being used for analysis.

Keywords: self-learning module, academic performance, statistics and probability, normal distribution

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis

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Authors: Amir Deljoo

Abstract:

The endeavor to comprehend the existence have been the center of thought for human in form of different disciplines and now basically in physics as the theory of everything. Here, after a brief review of the basic frameworks of thought, and a history of thought since ancient up to present, a logical methodology is presented based on a core axiom after which a function, a proto-field and then a coordinates are explained. Afterwards a generalization to Standard Model is proposed as General Standard Model which is believed to be the base of the Unified Theory of Everything.

Keywords: general relativity, grand unified theory, quantum mechanics, standard model, theory of everything

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Authors: Ludivine Saint-Mard, Masato Nakajima, Gloria Senfaute

Abstract:

In areas with low to moderate seismicity, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis frequently uses a Poisson approach, which assumes independence in time and space of events to determine the annual probability of earthquake occurrence. Nevertheless, in countries with high seismic rate, such as Japan, it is frequently use non-poissonian model which assumes that next earthquake occurrence depends on the date of previous one. The objective of this paper is to apply a non-poissonian models in a region of low to moderate seismicity to get a feedback on the following questions: can we overcome the lack of data to determine some key parameters?, and can we deal with uncertainties to apply largely this methodology on an industrial context?. The Brownian-Passage-Time model was applied to a fault located in France and conclude that even if the lack of data can be overcome with some calculations, the amount of uncertainties and number of scenarios leads to a numerous branches in PSHA, making this method difficult to apply on a large scale of low to moderate seismicity areas and in an industrial context.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard, non-poissonian model, earthquake occurrence, low seismicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 19