Search results for: error masking probability

Authors: D. Vidhyaprakash, A. Elango

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In real-time applications, wheeled mobile robots are increasingly used and operated in extreme and diverse conditions traversing challenging surfaces such as a pitted, uneven terrain, natural flat, smooth terrain, as well as wet and dry surfaces. In order to accomplish such tasks, it is critical that the motion control functions without wheel slip and odometry error during the navigation of the two-wheeled mobile robot (WMR). Wheel slip and odometry error are disrupting factors on overall WMR performance in the form of deviation from desired trajectory, navigation, travel time and budgeted energy consumption. The wheeled mobile robot’s ability to operate at peak performance on various work surfaces without wheel slippage and odometry error is directly connected to four main parameters, which are the range of payload distribution, speed, wheel diameter, and wheel width. This paper analyses the effects of those parameters on overall performance and is concerned with determining the ideal range of parameters for optimum performance.

Keywords: wheeled mobile robot, terrain, wheel slippage, odometryerror, trajectory

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Chek Kim Loi

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The study attempts to undertake an error analysis of prepositions employed in the written work of Form 4 Malay ESL (English as a Second Language) students in Malaysia. The error analysis is undertaken using Richards’s (1974) framework of intralingual and interlingual errors and Bennett’s (1975) framework in identifying prepositional concepts found in the sample. The study first identifies common prepositional errors in the written texts of 150 student participants. It then measures the relative intensities of these errors and finds out the possible causes for the occurrences of these errors. In this study, one significant finding is that among the nine concepts of prepositions examined, the participant students tended to make errors in the use of prepositions of time and place. The present study has pedagogical implications in teaching English prepositions to Malay ESL students.

Keywords: error, interlingual, intralingual, preposition

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Authors: Francis Mugabi, Kevin Duffy, Joseph J. Y. T Mugisha, Obiora Collins

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Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes, with some of them coexisting in patchy (different) environments, which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Deterministic and stochastic models for r BTV serotypes in n discrete patches connected by midge and/or cattle movement are formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model without midge and cattle movement, using the comparison principle, it is shown that if the patch reproduction number R0 < 1, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,r, all serotypes go extinct. If R^j_i0>1, competitive exclusion takes place. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that when the n patches are connected by midge movement, coexistence takes place. To account for demographic and movement variability, the deterministic model is transformed into a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. Utilizing a multitype branching process, it is shown that the midge movement can have a large effect on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes. The probability of coexistence can be brought to zero when the control interventions that directly kill the adult midges are applied. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement and vector control interventions on the coexistence and control of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Keywords: bluetongue virus, coexistence, multiple serotypes, midge movement, branching process

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Authors: Man-Yu Wong, Siyu Zhou, Zhiqiang Cao

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In quality of life, health service utilization is an important determinant of medical resource expenditures on Colorectal cancer (CRC) care, a better understanding of the increased utilization of health services is essential for optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources to services and thus for enhancing the service quality, especially for high expenditure on CRC care like Hong Kong region. In assessing the association between the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm, count data models can be used, which account for over dispersion or extra zero counts. In our data, the HRQOL evaluation is a self-reported measure obtained from a questionnaire completed by the patients, misreports and variations in the data are inevitable. Besides, there are more zero counts from the observed number of clinical consultations (observed frequency of zero counts = 206) than those from a Poisson distribution with mean equal to 1.33 (expected frequency of zero counts = 156). This suggests that excess of zero counts may exist. Therefore, we study tests for detecting zero-inflation in models with measurement error in covariates. Method: Under classical measurement error model, the approximate likelihood function for zero-inflation Poisson regression model can be obtained, then Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation(AMLE) can be derived accordingly, which is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. By calculating score function and Fisher information based on AMLE, a score test is proposed to detect zero-inflation effect in ZIP model with measurement error. The proposed test follows asymptotically standard normal distribution under H0, and it is consistent with the test proposed for zero-inflation effect when there is no measurement error. Results: Simulation results show that empirical power of our proposed test is the highest among existing tests for zero-inflation in ZIP model with measurement error. In real data analysis, with or without considering measurement error in covariates, existing tests, and our proposed test all imply H0 should be rejected with P-value less than 0.001, i.e., zero-inflation effect is very significant, ZIP model is superior to Poisson model for analyzing this data. However, if measurement error in covariates is not considered, only one covariate is significant; if measurement error in covariates is considered, only another covariate is significant. Moreover, the direction of coefficient estimations for these two covariates is different in ZIP regression model with or without considering measurement error. Conclusion: In our study, compared to Poisson model, ZIP model should be chosen when assessing the association between condition-specific HRQOL and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm. and models taking measurement error into account will result in statistically more reliable and precise information.

Keywords: count data, measurement error, score test, zero inflation

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

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Authors: Douglas MacCutcheon, Florian Pausch, Robert Ljung, Lorna Halliday, Stuart Rosen

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Contemporary classrooms are increasingly inclusive of children with mild to moderate disabilities and children from different language backgrounds (bilinguals, multilinguals), but classroom environments and standards have not yet been adapted adequately to meet these challenges brought about by this inclusivity. Additionally, classrooms are becoming noisier as a learner-centered as opposed to teacher-centered teaching paradigm is adopted, which prioritizes group work and peer-to-peer learning. Challenging listening conditions with distracting sound sources and background noise are known to have potentially negative effects on children, particularly those that are prone to struggle with speech perception in noise. Therefore, this research investigates two groups vulnerable to these environmental effects, namely children with a mild to moderate hearing loss (MMHLs) and sequential bilinguals learning in their second language. In the MMHL study, this group was assessed on speech-in-noise perception, and a number of receptive language and cognitive measures (auditory working memory, auditory attention) and correlations were evaluated. Speech reception thresholds were found to be predictive of language and cognitive ability, and the nature of correlations is discussed. In the bilinguals study, sequential bilingual children’s listening comprehension, speech-in-noise perception, listening effort and release from masking was evaluated under a number of different ecologically valid acoustic scenarios in order to pinpoint the extent of the ‘native language benefit’ for Swedish children learning in English, their second language. Scene manipulations included target-to-distractor ratios and introducing spatially separated noise. This research will contribute to the body of findings from which educational institutions can draw when designing or adapting educational environments in inclusive schools.

Keywords: sequential bilinguals, classroom acoustics, mild to moderate hearing loss, speech-in-noise, release from masking

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Authors: Nilgün Katrancı, Pınar Göv

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With the acceleration and assessment of quality and patient safety works in healthcare services in the 21st century, activities to reduce errors have gained importance. The prevention and reduction of unintended consequences related to healthcare services and errors made during the delivery of healthcare services can be achieved by understanding the causes of the errors. Communication is the basic reason most frequently seen in such cases. Nurses who communicate with patients more closely and for longer time play a more critical role in ensuring patient safety compared to other healthcare professionals. To reduce the risk of medical errors and increase the quality of care, it is important to raise the awareness of nurses about patient safety in training period. This descriptive study was conducted between February 2017 and May 2017 to assess intern students' attitudes towards and knowledge of patient safety and medical errors. The target population of the study consists of intern students at the Faculty of Nursing in Gaziantep University (N=180). The study did not apply any sample selection method, and the research group consisted of 90 female and 37 male senior students who were available and accepted to take part in the study (N=127). The study used personal information form and medical error attitude scale to collect data. The medical error attitude scale consists of 16 items and 3 sub-dimensions. The most frequently seen medical error in the clinics the interns worked at was found as ‘Failure to comply with asepsis rules’ with a rate of 67,7%. The most frequent case among reasons for not disclosing an error is ‘noticing and correcting the error before affecting the patient’ with the rate of 70,9%. The most frequently expressed implications of disclosing a serious error for the intern students participating in the study are ‘harming patient trust (78%)’ and ‘possibility of overreaction by patient (62,2%)’. According to the results of the study, the awareness of the students about the importance of medical errors and error reporting was found high (3,48 ± 0,49). Consequently, it is important to assess and positively improve the attitudes of nurses and other healthcare professionals towards medical errors for the determination of causes of medical errors and their prevention.

Keywords: healthcare service, intern student, medical error, patient safety

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Authors: Mohammad Noor Hisham Osman, Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff, Zaidi Mat Daud, Zulkarnain Muhamad Sori

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The problem that Malaysian auditors do not issue going concern opinion (GC opinion) to seriously financially distressed companies is still a pressing issue. Policy makers, particularly the Financial Statement Review Committee (FSRC) of Malaysian Institute of Accountant, have raised this issue as early as in 2009. Similar problem happened in the US, UK, and many developing countries. It is important for auditors to issue GC opinion properly because such opinion is one signal about the viability of a company much needed by stakeholders. There are at least two unanswered questions or research gaps in the literature on determinants of GC opinion. Firstly, is client’s probability of failure associated with GC opinion issuance? Secondly, to what extent influential owners (management, family, and institution) moderate the association between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. The objective of this study is, therefore, twofold; (1) To examine the extent of the relationship between the probability of client failure and the issuance of GC opinion and (2) To examine the level of management, family, and institutional ownerships moderate the association between client probability of failure and the issuance of GC opinion. This study is quantitative in nature, and the sources of data are secondary (mainly company’s annual reports). A total of four hypotheses have been developed and tested on data accumulated from annual reports of seriously financially distressed Malaysian public listed companies. Data from 2006 to 2012 on a sample of 644 observations have been analyzed using panel logistic regression. It is found that certainty (rather than probability) of client failure affects the issuance of GC opinion. In addition, it is found that only the level of family ownership does positively moderate the relationship between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. This study is a contribution to auditing literature as its findings can enhance our understanding about audit quality; particularly on the variables that are associated with the issuance of GC opinion. The findings of this study shed light on the roles family owners in GC opinion issuance process, and this would open ways for the researcher to suggest measures that can be used to tackle the problem of auditors do not want to issue GC opinion to financially distressed clients. The measures to be suggested can be useful to policy makers in formulating future promulgations.

Keywords: audit quality, auditing, auditor characteristics, going concern opinion, Malaysia

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Authors: Md Fazlul Kader, Soo Young Shin

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In this paper, we consider a cognitive relay network (CRN) in which the primary receiver (PR) is protected by peak transmit power $\bar{P}_{ST}$ and/or peak interference power Q constraints. In addition, the interference effect from the primary transmitter (PT) is considered to show its impact on the performance of the CRN. We investigate the outage probability (OP) and outage capacity (OC) of the CRN by deriving closed-form expressions over Rayleigh fading channel. Results show that both the OP and OC improve by increasing the cooperative relay nodes as well as when the PT is far away from the SR.

Keywords: cognitive relay, outage, interference limited, decode-and-forward (DF)

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Authors: Robbie C. Murchison, Ibrahim Küçükdemiral, Andrew Cowell

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Thermal effects are the largest source of dimensional error in precision machining, and a major proportion is caused by ambient temperature variation. The use of coolant is a primary means of mitigating these effects, but there has been limited work on coolant temperature control. This research critically explored whether CNC-machine coolant refrigeration systems adapted to actively compensate for ambient temperature variation could increase machining accuracy. Accuracy data were collected from operators’ checklists for a CNC 5-axis mill and statistically reduced to bias and precision metrics for observations of one day over a sample period of 27 days. Temperature data were collected using three USB dataloggers in ambient air, the chiller inflow, and the chiller outflow. The accuracy and temperature data were analysed using Pearson correlation, then the thermodynamics of the system were described using system identification with MATLAB. It was found that 75% of thermal error is reflected in the hot coolant temperature but that this is negligibly dependent on ambient temperature. The effect of the coolant refrigeration process on hot coolant outflow temperature was also found to be negligible. Therefore, the evidence indicated that it would not be beneficial to adapt coolant chillers to compensate for ambient temperature variation. However, it is concluded that hot coolant outflow temperature is a robust and accessible source of thermal error data which could be used for prevention strategy evaluation or as the basis of other thermal error strategies.

Keywords: CNC manufacturing, machine-tool, precision machining, thermal error

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Young Hee Geum

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We propose the numerical method defined by xn+1 = xn − λ[f(xn − μh(xn))/]f'(xn) , n ∈ N, and determine the control parameter λ and μ to converge cubically. In addition, we derive the asymptotic error constant. Applying this proposed scheme to various test functions, numerical results show a good agreement with the theory analyzed in this paper and are proven using Mathematica with its high-precision computability.

Keywords: asymptotic error constant, iterative method, multiple root, root-finding

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Authors: Papitchaya Papangkorn

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Matching the expectations of teachers and learners is significant for successful language learning. Moreover, teachers should discover what their learners think and feel about what and how they want to learn. Therefore, this study investigates International College, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University students’ preferences toward error corrections in order to help SSRUIC teachers match their expectations and their learners because it is important for successful language learning. This study examined the learners’ attitude and preference toward error correction through 50 first year SSRUIC students both male (25) and female (25) in Bangkok, Thailand. The data were collected from a questionnaire and interviews to investigate the necessity and frequency, timing, type of errors, method of corrective feedback, and person who gives error correction in order to answer the overall research question and sub-questions. The findings indicate five suggestions regarding the overall research question. Firstly, errors should be treated, and always be treated. Secondly, treating errors after finish speaking is the most appropriate time. Thirdly, “errors that may cause problems in an understanding of listener” and “frequent spoken errors” should be treated. Fourthly, repetition and explicit feedback were the most popular types of feedback among males, whereas metalinguistic feedback was the most favoured types amongst females. Finally, teachers were the most preferred person to deliver corrective feedback for the learners. Although the results of the study are difficult to generalize to a larger population, which are Thai EFL learners because of the small sample, the findings provide useful information that may contribute to understanding of SSRUIC learners’ preferences toward error corrections and it might reduce the gap between what teachers employ and what students expect when receiving corrective feedback. The reduction of this gap may be useful for the learning process and could enhance the efforts of both teachers and learners in a Thai context.

Keywords: attitude, corrective feedback, error, preference

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Authors: Yao Fu, Xingli Zhang, Jiannong Shi

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Visual working memory (VWM) capacity is the ability to maintain and manipulate short-term information which is not currently available. It is well known for its significance to form the basis of numerous cognitive abilities and its limitation in holding information. VWM span, the most popular measurable indicator, is found to reach the adult level (3-4 items) around 12-13 years’ old, while less is known about the precision development of the VWM capacity. By using simultaneously delayed responses paradigm, the present study investigates the development of VWM precision among 6-18-year-old children and young adults, besides its possible relationships with fluid intelligence and span. Results showed that precision and span both increased with age, and precision reached the maximum in 16-17 age-range. Moreover, when remembering 3 simultaneously presented items, the probability of remembering target item correlated with fluid intelligence and the probability of wrap errors (misbinding target and non-target items) correlated with age. When remembering more items, children had worse performance than adults due to their wrap errors. Compared to span, VWM precision was effective predictor of intelligence even after controlling for age. These results suggest that unlike VWM span, precision developed in a slow, yet longer fashion. Moreover, decreasing probability of wrap errors might be the main reason for the development of precision. Last, precision correlated more closely with intelligence than span in childhood and adolescence, which might be caused by the probability of remembering target item.

Keywords: fluid intelligence, precision, visual working memory, wrap errors

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Authors: Rashi Jain

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The LTE systems employ Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) as the multiple access technology for the Downlink channels. For enhanced performance, accurate channel estimation is required. Various algorithms such as Least Squares (LS), Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) and Recursive Least Squares (RLS) can be employed for the purpose. The paper proposes channel estimation algorithm based on Kalman Filter for LTE-Downlink system. Using the frequency domain pilots, the initial channel response is obtained using the LS criterion. Then Kalman Filter is employed to track the channel variations in time-domain. To suppress the noise within a symbol, threshold processing is employed. The paper draws comparison between the LS, MMSE, RLS and Kalman filter for channel estimation. The parameters for evaluation are Bit Error Rate (BER), Mean Square Error (MSE) and run-time.

Keywords: LTE, channel estimation, OFDM, RLS, Kalman filter, threshold

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Authors: Zeyu Zhang, Guisheng Yin, Ziying Zhang, Liguo Zhang

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This paper mainly studies the path planning method based on ant colony optimization (ACO), and proposes heuristic integration ant colony optimization (HIACO). This paper not only analyzes and optimizes the principle, but also simulates and analyzes the parameters related to the application of HIACO in path planning. Compared with the original algorithm, the improved algorithm optimizes probability formula, tabu table mechanism and updating mechanism, and introduces more reasonable heuristic factors. The optimized HIACO not only draws on the excellent ideas of the original algorithm, but also solves the problems of premature convergence, convergence to the sub optimal solution and improper exploration to some extent. HIACO can be used to achieve better simulation results and achieve the desired optimization. Combined with the probability formula and update formula, several parameters of HIACO are tested. This paper proves the principle of the HIACO and gives the best parameter range in the research of path planning.

Keywords: ant colony optimization, heuristic integration, path planning, probability formula

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Authors: T. Gangadhararao, K. Krishna Kishore

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Motion Estimation (ME) plays a critical role in a video coder, testing such a module is of priority concern. While focusing on the testing of ME in a video coding system, this work presents an error detection and data recovery (EDDR) design, based on the residue-and-quotient (RQ) code, to embed into ME for video coding testing applications. An error in processing Elements (PEs), i.e. key components of a ME, can be detected and recovered effectively by using the proposed EDDR design. The proposed EDDR design for ME testing can detect errors and recover data with an acceptable area overhead and timing penalty.

Keywords: area overhead, data recovery, error detection, motion estimation, reliability, residue-and-quotient (RQ) code

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Authors: Tammeen Siraj, Wenxing Zhou, Terry Huang, Mohammad Al-Amin

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The high resolution inline inspection (ILI) tool is used extensively in the pipeline industry to identify, locate, and measure metal-loss corrosion anomalies on buried oil and gas steel pipelines. Corrosion anomalies may occur singly (i.e. individual anomalies) or as clusters (i.e. a colony of corrosion anomalies). Although the ILI technology has advanced immensely, there are measurement errors associated with the sizes of corrosion anomalies reported by ILI tools due limitations of the tools and associated sizing algorithms, and detection threshold of the tools (i.e. the minimum detectable feature dimension). Quantifying the measurement error in the ILI data is crucial for corrosion management and developing maintenance strategies that satisfy the safety and economic constraints. Studies on the measurement error associated with the length of the corrosion anomalies (in the longitudinal direction of the pipeline) has been scarcely reported in the literature and will be investigated in the present study. Limitations in the ILI tool and clustering process can sometimes cause clustering error, which is defined as the error introduced during the clustering process by including or excluding a single or group of anomalies in or from a cluster. Clustering error has been found to be one of the biggest contributory factors for relatively high uncertainties associated with ILI reported anomaly length. As such, this study focuses on developing a consistent and comprehensive framework to quantify the measurement errors in the ILI-reported anomaly length by comparing the ILI data and corresponding field measurements for individual and clustered corrosion anomalies. The analysis carried out in this study is based on the ILI and field measurement data for a set of anomalies collected from two segments of a buried natural gas pipeline currently in service in Alberta, Canada. Data analyses showed that the measurement error associated with the ILI-reported length of the anomalies without clustering error, denoted as Type I anomalies is markedly less than that for anomalies with clustering error, denoted as Type II anomalies. A methodology employing data mining techniques is further proposed to classify the Type I and Type II anomalies based on the ILI-reported corrosion anomaly information.

Keywords: clustered corrosion anomaly, corrosion anomaly assessment, corrosion anomaly length, individual corrosion anomaly, metal-loss corrosion, oil and gas steel pipeline

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Authors: Chantima Wangsomchok

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The main purposes of this study are (1) to test the students’ communicative competence within six main functions: greeting, parting, thanking, offering, requesting and suggesting, (2) to employ error analysis in the students’ communicative competence within those functions, and (3) to compare the characteristics of the error found from the investigation. The subjects of the study is 328 first-year undergraduates taking the Foundation English course in the first semester of the 2008 academic year at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This study found that while the subjects showed high communicative competence in the use of the following three functions: greeting, thanking, and offering, they seemed to show poor communicative competence in suggesting, requesting and parting instead. In addition, this study found that the grammatical errors were likely to be most frequently found in the parting function. In the same way, the type of errors which were less frequently found was in the functions of thanking and requesting respectively. Instead, the students tended to have high pragmatic failure in the use of greeting and suggesting functions.

Keywords: error analysis, functions of English language, communicative competence, cognitive science

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Authors: Vincenzo Russo, Rosella Giacometti

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The paper aims to assess the insurance industry's resilience under Solvency II against adverse scenarios. Starting from the economic balance sheet available under Solvency II for insurance and reinsurance undertakings, we assume that assets and liabilities follow a bivariate geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Then, using the results available under Margrabe's formula, we establish an analytical solution to calibrate the volatility of the asset-liability ratio. In such a way, we can estimate the probability of default and the probability of breaching the undertaking's Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). Furthermore, since estimating the volatility of the Solvency Ratio became crucial for insurers in light of the financial crises featured in the last decades, we introduce a novel measure that we call Resiliency Ratio. The Resiliency Ratio can be used, in addition to the Solvency Ratio, to evaluate the insurance industry's resilience in case of adverse scenarios. Finally, we introduce a simplified stress test tool to evaluate the economic balance sheet under stressed conditions. The model we propose is featured by analytical tractability and fast calibration procedure where only the disclosed data available under the Solvency II public reporting are needed for the calibration. Using the data published regularly by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) in an aggregated form by country, an empirical analysis has been performed to calibrate the model and provide the related results at the country level.

Keywords: Solvency II, solvency ratio, volatility of the asset-liability ratio, probability of default, probability to breach the SCR, resilience ratio, stress test

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Authors: Mohamed Othmani, Yassine Khlifi

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This paper presents a technique for compact three dimensional (3D) object model reconstruction using wavelet networks. It consists to transform an input surface vertices into signals,and uses wavelet network parameters for signal approximations. To prove this, we use a wavelet network architecture founded on several mother wavelet families. POLYnomials WindOwed with Gaussians (POLYWOG) wavelet families are used to maximize the probability to select the best wavelets which ensure the good generalization of the network. To achieve a better reconstruction, the network is trained several iterations to optimize the wavelet network parameters until the error criterion is small enough. Experimental results will shown that our proposed technique can effectively reconstruct an irregular 3D object models when using the optimized wavelet network parameters. We will prove that an accurateness reconstruction depends on the best choice of the mother wavelets.

Keywords: 3d object, optimization, parametrization, polywog wavelets, reconstruction, wavelet networks

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Authors: Rukhsana Kausar, Issam Malki

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The integration and assimilation of ethnic minority immigrants (EMIs) and their subsequent generations remains a serious unsettled issue in most of the host countries. This study conducts the labour market gender analysis to investigate specifically whether second generation of ethnic minority immigrants in the UK is gaining access to professional and managerial employment and advantaged occupational positions on par with their native counterparts. The data used to examine the labour market achievements of EMIs is taken from Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2014-2018. We apply a multivalued treatment under ignorability as proposed by Cattaneo (2010), which refers to treatment effects under the assumptions of (i) selection – on – observables and (ii) common support. We report estimates of Average Treatment Effect (ATE), Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATET), and Potential Outcomes Means (POM) using three estimators, including the Regression Adjustment (RA), Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) and Inverse Probability Weighting- Regression Adjustment (IPWRA). We consider two cases: the case with four categories where the first-generation natives are the base category, the second case combine all natives as a base group. Our findings suggest the following. Under Case 1, the estimated probabilities and differences across groups are consistently similar and highly significant. As expected, first generation natives have the highest probability for higher career attainment among both men and women. The findings also suggest that first generation immigrants perform better than the remaining two groups, including the second-generation natives and immigrants. Furthermore, second generation immigrants have higher probability to attain higher professional career, while this is lower for a managerial career. Similar conclusions are reached under Case 2. That is to say that both first – generation and second – generation immigrants have a lower probability for higher career and managerial attainment. First – generation immigrants are found to perform better than second – generation immigrants.

Keywords: immigrnats, second generation, occupational attainment, ethnicity

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Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Yukiko Sasaki Alam

Abstract:

This research aims at finding out the causes that led to wrong lexical selections in machine translation (MT) rather than categorizing lexical errors, which has been a main practice in error analysis. By manually examining and analyzing lexical errors outputted by a MT system, it suggests what knowledge would help the system reduce lexical errors.

Keywords: machine translation, error analysis, lexical errors, evaluation

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Authors: Husain Rajib, K. S. Kishor, D. G. Jewel

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Background: Uncorrected refractive error is a common cause of preventable visual impairment in pediatric age group which can be lead to blindness but early detection of visual impairment can reduce the problem that will have good effective in education and more involve in social activities. Glasses are the cheapest and commonest form of correction of refractive errors. To achieve this, patient must exhibit good compliance to spectacle wear. Patient’s attitude and perception of glasses and eye health could affect compliance. Material and method: A Prospective community based cross sectional study was designed in order to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and practices about refractive errors and eye health amongst the primary school going children. Result: Among 140 respondents, 72 were males and 68 were females. We found 50 children were myopic and out of them 26 were male and 24 were female, 27 children were hyperopic and out of them 14 were male and 13 were female. About 63 children were astigmatic and out of them 32 were male and 31 were female. The level of knowledge, attitude was satisfactory. The attitude of the students, teachers and parents was cooperative which helps to do cycloplegic refraction. Practice was not satisfactory due to social stigma and information gap. Conclusion: Knowledge of refractive error and acceptance of glasses for the correction of uncorrected refractive error. Public awareness program such as vision screening program, eye camp, and teachers training program are more beneficial for wearing and prescribing spectacle.

Keywords: refractive error, stigma, knowledge, attitude, practice

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. These findings need to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier

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Authors: Leticia Cervantes, Edith Garcia, Oscar Castillo

Abstract:

At today, there are several control problems where the main objective is to obtain the best control in the study to decrease the error in the application. Many techniques can use to control these problems such as Neural Networks, PID control, Fuzzy Logic, Optimization techniques and many more. In this case, fuzzy logic with fuzzy system and an optimization technique are used to control the case of study. In this case, Ant Lion Optimization is used to optimize a fuzzy system to control the velocity of a simple treadmill. The main objective is to achieve the control of the velocity in the control problem using the ALO optimization. First, a simple fuzzy system was used to control the velocity of the treadmill it has two inputs (error and error change) and one output (desired speed), then results were obtained but to decrease the error the ALO optimization was developed to optimize the fuzzy system of the treadmill. Having the optimization, the simulation was performed, and results can prove that using the ALO optimization the control of the velocity was better than a conventional fuzzy system. This paper describes some basic concepts to help to understand the idea in this work, the methodology of the investigation (control problem, fuzzy system design, optimization), the results are presented and the optimization is used for the fuzzy system. A comparison between the simple fuzzy system and the optimized fuzzy systems are presented where it can be proving the optimization improved the control with good results the major findings of the study is that ALO optimization is a good alternative to improve the control because it helped to decrease the error in control applications even using any control technique to optimized, As a final statement is important to mentioned that the selected methodology was good because the control of the treadmill was improve using the optimization technique.

Keywords: ant lion optimization, control problem, fuzzy control, fuzzy system

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Authors: Guillaume Leduc

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a broad setting under which the error of the approximation can be quantified, controlled, and for which convergence occurs at a speed of n⁻¹ for European and American options. We describe how knowledge of the error allows for arbitrarily fast acceleration of the convergence.

Keywords: random walk approximation, European and American options, rate of convergence, option pricing

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Authors: Zahra Esmaeily, Zahra Tajari, Shahrzad Daei, Mahshid Rezaei, Atefeh Eyvazkhani, Marjan Mansouri Dara, Ahmad Reza Dorosty Motlagh, Andriko Palmowski

Abstract:

Objective: Sarcopenia (SPA) is associated with frailty and disability in the elderly. Adherence to current dietary guidelines in addition to physical activity could play a role in the prevention of muscle wasting and weakness. The Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI) is a tool to assess diet quality as recommended in the U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans. This study aimed to investigate whether there is a relationship between HEI scores and the probability of SPA (PS) among the Tehran elderly. Method: A previously validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess HEI and the dietary intake of randomly selected elderly people living in Tehran, Iran. Handgrip strength (HGS) was measured to evaluate the PS. Statistical evaluation included descriptive analysis and standard test procedures. Result: 201 subjects were included. Those probably suffering from SPA (as determined by HGS) had significantly lower HEI scores (p = 0.02). After adjusting for confounders, HEI scores and HGS were still significantly associated (adjusted R2 = 0.56, slope β = 0.03, P = 0.09). Elderly people with a low probability of SPA consumed more monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids (P = 0.06) and ingested less added sugars and saturated fats (P = 0.01 and P = 0.02, respectively). Conclusion: In this cross-sectional study, HEI scores are associated with the probability of SPA. Adhering to current dietary guidelines might contribute to ameliorating muscle strength and mass in aging individuals.

Keywords: aging, HEI-2015, Iranian, sarcopenic

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