Search results for: earnings persistence

Authors: Ugbede Onalo, Mohd Lizam, Ahmad Kaseri, Otache Innocent

Abstract:

Giving the paucity of studies on IFRS adoption and quality of banks accounting quality, particularly in emerging economies, this study is motivated to investigate whether the Nigeria decision to adopt IFRS beginning from 1 January 2012 is associated with high quality accounting measures. Consistent with prior literatures, this study measure quality of financial statement information using earnings measurement, timeliness of loss recognition and value relevance. A total of twenty Nigeria banks covering a period of six years (2008-2013) divided equally into three years each (2008, 2009, 2010) pre adoption period and (2011, 2012, 2013) post adoption period were investigated. Following prior studies eight models were in all employed to investigate earnings management, timeliness of loss recognition and value relevance of Nigeria bank accounting quality for the different reporting regimes. Results suggest that IFRS adoption is associated with minimal earnings management, timely recognition of losses and high value relevance of accounting information. Summarily, IFRS adoption engenders higher quality of banks financial statement information compared to local GAAP. Hence, this study recommends the global adoption of IFRS and that Nigeria banks should embrace good corporate governance practices.

Keywords: IFRS, SAS, quality of accounting information, earnings measurement, discretionary accruals, non-discretionary accruals, total accruals, Jones model, timeliness of loss recognition, value relevance

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Daniil Karzanov

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: I. Martinez-Conesa, E. Garcia-Meca, M. Barradas-Quiroz

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to assess the impact on earnings management of latest two Hofstede cultural dimensions: long-term orientation and indulgence. Long-term orientation represents the alignment of a society towards the future and indulgence expresses the extent to which a society exhibits willingness, or restrain, to realise their impulses. Additionally, this paper tests if there are relevant differences by testing the moderating role of the legal tradition, Continental versus Anglo-Saxon. Our sample comprises 15 countries: Belgium, Canada, Germany, Spain, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Philippines, Portugal, Sweden, and Thailand, with a total of 12,936 observations from 2003 to 2013. Our results show that managers in countries with high levels of long-term orientation reduce their levels of discretionary accruals. The findings do not confirm the effect of indulgence on earnings management. In addition, our results confirm previous literature regarding the effect of individualism, noting that firms in countries with high levels of collectivism might be more inclined to use earnings discretion to protect the welfare of the collective group of firm stakeholders. Uncertainty avoidance results in downwards earnings management as well as high disclosure, suggesting that less manipulation takes place when transparency is higher. Indulgence is the cultural dimension that confronts wellbeing versus survival; dimension is formulated including happiness, the perception of live control and the importance of leisure. Indulgence shows a weak negative correlation with power distance indicating a slight tendency for more hierarchical societies to be less indulgent. Anglo-Saxon countries are a positive effect of individualism and a negative effect of masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and disclosure. With respect to continental countries, we can see a significant and positive effect of individualism and a significant and negative effect of masculinity, long-term orientation, and indulgence. Therefore, we observe the negative effect on earnings management provoked by higher disclosure and uncertainty avoidance only happens in Anglo-Saxon countries. Meanwhile, the improvement in reporting quality motivated by higher long-term orientation and higher indulgence is dominant in Continental countries. Our results confirm that there is a moderating effect of the legal system in the association between culture and earnings management. This effect is especially relevant in the dimensions related to uncertainty avoidance, long term orientation, indulgence, and disclosure. The negative effect of long-term orientation on earnings management only happens in those countries set in continental legal systems because of the Anglo-Saxon legal systems is supported by the decisions of the courts and the traditions, so it already has long-term orientation. That does not occur in continental systems, depending mainly of contend of the law. Sensitivity analysis used with Jones modified CP model, Jones Standard model and Jones Standard CP model confirm the robustness of these results. This paper collaborates towards a better understanding on how earnings management, culture and legal systems relate to each other, and contribute to previous literature by examining the influence of the two latest Hofstede’s dimensions not previously studied in papers.

Keywords: Hofstede, long-term-orientation, earnings management, indulgence

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Fatemeh Rouhi, Hadi Nassiri

Abstract:

Earning forecast is a key element in economic decisions but there are some situations, such as conflicts of interest in financial reporting, complexity and lack of direct access to information has led to the phenomenon of information asymmetry among individuals within the organization and external investors and creditors that appear. The adverse selection and moral hazard in the investor's decision and allows direct assessment of the difficulties associated with data by users makes. In this regard, the role of trustees in corporate governance disclosure is crystallized that includes controls and procedures to ensure the lack of movement in the interests of the company's management and move in the direction of maximizing shareholder and company value. Therefore, the earning forecast of companies in the capital market and the need to identify factors influencing this study was an attempt to make relationship between moral hazard and corporate governance with earning forecast quality companies operating in the capital market and its impact on Earnings Forecasts quality by the company to be established. Getting inspiring from the theoretical basis of research, two main hypotheses and sub-hypotheses are presented in this study, which have been examined on the basis of available models, and with the use of Panel-Data method, and at the end, the conclusion has been made at the assurance level of 95% according to the meaningfulness of the model and each independent variable. In examining the models, firstly, Chow Test was used to specify either Panel Data method should be used or Pooled method. Following that Housman Test was applied to make use of Random Effects or Fixed Effects. Findings of the study show because most of the variables are positively associated with moral hazard with earnings forecasts quality, with increasing moral hazard, earning forecast quality companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is increasing. Among the variables related to corporate governance, board independence variables have a significant relationship with earnings forecast accuracy and earnings forecast bias but the relationship between board size and earnings forecast quality is not statistically significant.

Keywords: corporate governance, earning forecast quality, moral hazard, financial sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Pradyumna Mohanty

Abstract:

The paper aims to explore whether accounting information of Indian companies in the Steel sector are value relevant or not. Ohlson’s model which usually takes into consideration book value per share (BV) and earnings per share (EARN) has been used and the same has been expanded to include two more variables such as cash flow from operations (CFO) and return on equity (ROE). The data were collected from CMIE-Prowess data base in respect of BSE-listed steel companies and the time frame spans from 2010 to 2014. OLS regression has been used to test the value relevance of these accounting numbers. Results indicate that both CFO and BV are having significant influence on the stock price in two out of five years of study. But, BV is emerging as the most significant and highly value relevant of all the four variables during the entire period of study.

Keywords: value relevance, accounting information, book value per share, earnings per share

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: José Luis Gallizo, Pilar Gargallo, Ramon Saladrigues, Manuel Salvador

Abstract:

This study offers an exploratory statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural and a transitory component, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This breakdown enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be more accurately evaluated by country and sector. Furthermore, Bayesian approach allows for testing different hypotheses about the homogeneity of the behaviour of the above components with respect to the sector and the country where the firm develops its activity. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the firm specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for around 81% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 34%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects depends also on sector and country analysed have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 7-8% with this degree of persistence being very similar for most of sectors and countries analysed.

Keywords: dynamic models, Bayesian inference, MCMC, abnormal returns, persistence of profits, return on assets

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Mulue Girmay Gebreslasie

Abstract:

Entomopathogenic fungi are naturally safe and eco-friendly biological agents. Their potential of host specificity and ease handling made them appealing options to substitute synthetic pesticides in pest control programs. However, they are highly delicate and unstable under field conditions. Therefore, the current experiment was held to search out persistent fungal strains by defining the relationship between invitro heat tolerance and field persistence. Current results on leaf and soil persistence assay revealed that strains of Metarhizium species, M. pingshaense (F2685), M. pingshaense (MS2) and M. brunneum (F709) exhibit maximum cumulative CFUs count, relative survival rate and least percent of CFUs reductions showed significant difference at 7 days and 28 days post inoculations (dpi) in hot seasons from sampled soils and leaves and in cold season from soil samples. Whereas relative survival of B. brongniartii (TNO6) found significantly higher in cold weather leaf treatment application as compared to hot season and found as persistent as other fungal strains, while higher deterioration of fungal conidia seen with M. pingshaense (MS2). In the current study, strains of Beauveria brongniartii (TNO6) and Cordyceps javanica (Czy-LP) were relatively vulnerable in field condition with utmost colony forming units (CFUs) reduction and least survival rates. Further, the relationship of the two parameters (heat tolerance and field persistence) was seen with strong linear positive correlations elucidated that heat test could be used in selection of field persistent fungal strains for hot season applications.

Keywords: integrated pest management, biopesticides, Insect pathology and microbial control, entomology

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Fatemeh Noughani, Seyd Mehdi Sadat

Abstract:

Medical tourism or travel therapy is travelling from one country to another to be under medical treatment, utilizing the health factors of natural sector like mineral water springs and so on. From 1990s medical tourism around the world developed and grew because of different factors like globalization and free trade in the fields of health services, changes in exchange rates in the world economy (which caused the desirability of Asian countries as a medical tourist attraction) in a way that currently there is a close competition in this field among famous countries in medical services to make them find a desirable place in medical tourism market of the world as a complicated and growing industry in a short time. Perhaps tourism is an attractive industry and a good support for the economy of Iran, if we try to merge oil earnings and tourism industry it would be better and more constructive than putting them in front of each other. Moving from oil toward tourism economy especially medical tourism, must be one of the prospects of Iran's government for the oil industry to provide a few percent of the yearly earnings of the country. Among the achievements in medical tourism we can name the prevention of brain drain to other countries and an increase in employment rate for healthcare staff, increase in foreign exchange earnings of the country because of the tourists' staying and followed by increasing the quality of life and cultural transmission as well as empowering the medical human resources.

Keywords: developing countries, health tourism, quality of life, cultural transmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: I. Diaz Sanchez, I. M. Martinez-Conesa, M. Illueca

Abstract:

Accounting conservatism is a desirable quality of earnings that is positively associated with the stridency of regulatory and supervisory regimen and high market discipline. But how these three pillars interact each other is the main research question that is not empirically solved. We analyze how regulatory and supervisory regimes interact with the market discipline measures, such as listing status, ownership and market concentration using a sample of 14,651 bank-year observations covering 54 countries over the period 1997-2009. We evidence that regulation a supervision and extend on which they are enforcement is a strong mechanism to achieved accounting conservatism in those countries or situations where the market discipline fails. Generally, the supervisory power reinforces the effect of listing status, ownership and concentration on conservatism, while capital regulatory mitigates the effect of market discipline on conservatism. This paper may contribute to debate about the mechanism introduced by Basel III that strongly increases the regulation, his enforcement, and the supervisory power after long deregulation period. Although Market discipline is relevant to achieve the financial stability, strong Pillar I and II can ensure the quality of the accounting earnings to prevent bank failures.

Keywords: accounting conservatism, bank regulation, bank supervision, loan loss recognition, market discipline

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Dweepabiswa Bagchi, D. V. Senthilkumar

Abstract:

Numerous studies have typically demonstrated the devastation of invasions on an isolated ecosystem or, at most, a network of dispersively coupled similar ecosystem patches. Using such a simplistic 2-D network model, one can only consider dispersal coupling and inter-species trophic interactions. However, in a realistic ecosystem, numerous species co-exist and interact trophically and non-trophically in groups of 2 or more. Even different types of dispersal can introduce complexity in an ecological network. Therefore, a more accurate representation of actual ecosystems (or ecological networks) is a complex network consisting of motifs formed by two or more interacting species. Here, the apropos structure of the network should be multiplex or multi-layered. Motifs between different patches or species should be identical within the same layer and vary from one layer to another. This study investigates three distinct ecological multiplex networks facing invasion from one or more external species. This work determines and quantifies the criteria for the increased extinction risk of these networks. The dynamical states of the network with high extinction risk, i.e., the danger states, and those with low extinction risk, i.e., the resistive network states, are both subsequently identified. The analysis done in this study further quantifies the persistence of the entire network corresponding to simultaneous changes in the strength of invasive dispersal and higher-order trophic and non-trophic interactions. This study also demonstrates that the ecosystems enjoy an inherent advantage against invasions due to their multiplex network structure.

Keywords: increased ecosystem persistence, invasion on ecosystems, multiplex networks, non-trophic interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: Surbhi Rani, Sunita Gakkhar

Abstract:

The four-dimensional food web system consisting of two prey species for a generalist middle predator and a top predator is proposed and investigated. The middle predator is predating both the prey species with a modified Holling type-II functional response. The food web model is found to be well-posed, bounded, and dissipative. The proposed model's essential dynamical features are studied in terms of local stability. The four species' survival is explored, and persistence conditions are established. The numerical simulations reveal the persistence in the form of a chaotic attractor or stable focus. The conclusion is that providing additional food to the middle predator may help to control the food chain's chaos.

Keywords: predator-prey model, existence of equilibrium points, local stability, chaos, numerical simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Farizy Yunaz, Catur Sasongko

Abstract:

This research aims to provide the empirical evidence regarding cost stickiness behavior and its determinants on listed manufacturing companies. Hypothesis testing is performed using pooled least square method. The result concludes that there is cost stickiness behavior in selling, general and administrative costs. In term of determinants, firm-specific adjustment costs measured by asset intensity and employee intensity have significant positive impact on the level of cost stickiness. Meanwhile, earnings target and leverage have significant negative impact on the level of cost stickiness. However, the management empire building incentives measured by free cash flow has no significant positive impact.

Keywords: adjustment cost, cost behavior, cost stickiness, earnings target, leverage, management empire building incentive

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Kevin Smith

Abstract:

Publicly traded company in the US are legally obligated to host earnings calls that discuss their most recent financial reports. During these calls, investors are able to ask these companies questions about these financial reports and on the future direction of the company. This paper examines whether common institutional owners use these calls as a way to indirectly signal to companies in their portfolio to not take actions that could hurt the common owner's interests. This paper uses transcripts taken from the earnings calls of the six largest health insurance companies in the US from 2014 to 2019. This data is analyzed using text analysis and sentiment analysis to look for patterns in the statements made by common owners. The analysis found that common owners where more likely to recommend against direct price competition and instead redirect the insurance companies towards more passive actions, like investing in new technologies. This result indicates a mechanism that common owners use to reduce competition in the health insurance market.

Keywords: common ownership, text analysis, sentiment analysis, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Chiara De Amicis, Sonia Falconieri, Mesut Tastan

Abstract:

In this study, we analyze the language employed by Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) during earnings conference calls from a gender perspective. We find evidences that conference calls held by female CEOs and/or CFOs exhibit a higher level of optimism compared to conference calls held by male CEOs and/or CFOs. Moreover, female managers tend to present and discuss firm performances with less vagueness as compared to their male colleagues. We then observe the market reaction around each earnings conference call: while manager optimism is perceived as a good signal by investors, manager vagueness significantly dampens the market reaction around the call. Whether the gender of the CEO and/or the CFO delivering the conference call affects investors’ perceptions about the firm performance is still an open question. Some evidences show that the language employed by female managers conveys more valuable information for market participants as compared to the language employed by their male counterparts. This study contributes to a growing literature in finance and accounting that uses textual analysis to assess the informativeness of corporate disclosure. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that aims at answering the question whether the gender of firm’s top managers does matter when it comes to assess the informativeness of corporate spoken communication. We believe that our results will be of relevance for future research in the field. Moreover, our evidence may be used in support of the debate if a larger participation by women in the management of companies should be encouraged or not.

Keywords: conference calls, even study, gender, market reaction, textual analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Fatma Ezzahra Kateb, Neila Boulila Taktak, Mohamed Kabir Hassan

Abstract:

We examine the impact of Islamic accounting and auditing standards issued by the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) on the income smoothing perspective of Islamic financial institutions located in the Middle East and North Africa region between 2013 and 2018. Based on General Least square regression for panel data, we find a significant and positive relationship between intentional income smoothing and earning persistence and cash flow predictability in all models. However, we discovered that AAOIFI accounting standards (FAS) had a negative and significant effect on intentional income smoothing and earning persistence. As a result, the income smoothing efficiency is lower for IFIs that use FASs than IFIs that use IFRSs. Our findings emphasize the need for specific standards to enhance the relevance of financial reports disclosed by Islamic financial institutions.

Keywords: AAOIFI, financial reporting quality, income smoothing perspective, MENA countries

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

Abstract:

Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: Salihu Maiwada

Abstract:

The large scale textile industry in Nigeria was at one time the second largest employer of labor after government. With recent developments and changing situations, there is a serious decline in this sector which consequently forced the local textile industries to close down and the workers retrenched. the category of people worst hit was the youths and the middle age. This paper examines the potentials of the textile cottage industry as a facilitator for capacity building and economic empowerment among the Nigerian youths. The paper focuses on economic viability, persistence, and above-all, its potentials for poverty reduction as well as self employment. The methodology used in the study is the survey method and the instrument used to collect the necessary information is field interview. The results obtained showed that the textile cottage industries are flourishing and the Nigerian youths are engaged in the practice. In addition, the paper suggests areas that require government's financial intervention which will facilitate the establishment and ensure the sustainability of the textile cottage industry. The paper concludes with some recommendations for the youths and for the government.

Keywords: capacity building, economic, empowerment, persistence, sustainability, youths

Procedia PDF Downloads 552

Authors: Abisola Akinola, Akinsulere Femi

Abstract:

The stock market has continually been a source of economic development in most developing countries. This study examined the relationship between investors’ ratio analysis and profitability of quoted companies in Nigeria using secondary data obtained from the annual reports of forty-two (42) companies. The study employed the multiple regression technique to analyze the relationship between investors’ ratio analysis (measured by dividend per share and earning per share) and profitability (measured by the return on equity). The results from the analysis show that investors’ ratio analysis, when measured by earnings per share, have a positive and significant impact on profitability. However, the study noted that investors’ ratio analysis, when measured by dividend per share, tend to have a positive impact on profitability but it is statistically insignificant. By implication, investors and other stakeholders that are interested in investing in stocks can predict the earning capacity of listed firms in the stock market.

Keywords: dividend per share, earnings per share, profitability, return on equity

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Tariq Aziz, Suresh Kumar, Vikesh Kumar, Sheraz Mustafa, Jhanzeb Marwat

Abstract:

The paper provides an updated version of volatility spillover among the equity markets of South Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, Srilanka, and Bangladesh. The analysis uses both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models to investigate volatility persistence and leverage effect. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission between two equity markets. Weekly data for the period February 2013 to August 2019 is used for empirical analysis. The findings indicate that the leverage effect exists in the equity markets of all the countries except Bangladesh. The volatility spillover from the equity market of Bangladesh to all other countries is negative and significant whereas the volatility of the equity market of Sri-Lanka does influence the volatility of any other country’s equity market. Indian equity market influence only the volatility of the Sri-Lankan equity market; and there is bidirectional volatility spillover between the equity markets of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The findings are important for policy-makers and international investors.

Keywords: volatility spillover, volatility persistence, garch, egarch

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

Abstract:

Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Ashraf Shebl, Bassam Garah, Radah Youssef

Abstract:

Sexual assault is usually a hidden crime where the only witnesses are the victim and the assailant. For a variety of reasons, even the victim may be unable to provide a detailed account of the assault or the identity of the perpetrator. Often the case history deteriorates into one person’s word against another. With such limited initial information, the physical and biological evidence collected from the victim, from the crime scene, and from the suspect will play a pivotal role in the objective and scientific reconstruction of the events in question. The aim of work is to examine whether DNA profiles could be recovered from repeated washed clothes after contaminated by semen stains. Fresh semen about 1ml. ( <1 h old) taken from donor was deposited on four types of clothes (cotton, silk, polyester, and jeans). Then leave to dry in room temperature and washed by washing machine at temperature (30°C-60°C) and by hand washing. Some items of clothing were washed once, some twice and others three times. DNA could be extracted from some of these samples even after multiple washing. This study demonstrates that complete DNA profiles can be obtained from washed semen stains on different types of clothes, even after many repeated washing. These results indicated that clothes of the victims must be examined even if they were washed many times.

Keywords: sexual assault, DNA, persistence, clothes

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Fakieh Alrabai

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental study designed to explore some of the learner’s individual and interpersonal factors (e.g. persistence, interest, regulation, satisfaction, appreciation, etc.) that Saudi learners experience when learning English as a Foreign Language and how learners’ perceptions of these factors influence various aspects of their motivation to learn English language. As part of the study, a 27-item structured survey was administered to a randomly selected sample of 105 Saudi learners from public schools and universities. Data collected through the survey were subjected to some basic statistical analyses, such as "mean" and "standard deviation". Based on the results from the analysis, a number of generalizations and conclusions are made in relation to how these inherent factors affect Saudi learners’ motivation to learn English as a foreign language. In addition, some recommendations are offered to Saudi academics on how to effectively make use of such factors, which may enable Saudi teachers and learners of English as a foreign language to achieve better learning outcomes in an area widely associated by Saudis with lack of success.

Keywords: persistence, interest, appreciation, satisfaction, SL/FL motivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

Abstract:

Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Pamela K. Coke, Heidi Frederiksen, Ann Sebald

Abstract:

Over the past three years, the researchers have been tracking a rise in the number of teacher education candidates leaving the field before completing their university’s educator preparation program. At their institution, this rise is most pronounced in English Education. The purpose of this qualitative research study is to understand English Education teacher candidates' expectations in becoming prepared educators at each phase of their four phase teacher education program at one institution of higher education in the United States. Research questions include: To what extent do we find differences in teacher candidates' expectations of their teacher training program and student teaching experiences based upon undergraduate and graduate programs? Why do (or do not) teacher candidates persist in their teacher training program and student teaching experiences? How do dispositions develop through the course of the teacher training program? What supports do teacher candidates self-identify as needing at each phase of the teacher training program? Based upon participant interviews at each phase of the teacher education program, the researchers, all teacher educators, examine the extent to which English Education students feel prepared to student teach, focusing on preparation, persistence, and dispositions. The Colorado State University Center for Educator Preparation (CEP) provides students with information about teaching dispositions, or desired professional behaviors, throughout their education program. CEP focuses these dispositions around nine categories: Professional Behaviors, Initiative and Dependability, Tact and Judgment, Ethical Behavior and Integrity, Collegiality and Responsiveness, Effective Communicator, Desire to Improve Own Performance, Culturally Responsive, and Commitment to the Profession. Currently, in the first phase of a four phase study, initial results indicate participants expect their greatest joys will be working with and learning from students. They anticipate their greatest challenges will involve discipline and confidence. They predict they will persist in their program because they believe the country needs well-prepared teachers and they have a commitment to their professional growth. None of the participants thus far could imagine why they would leave the program. With regard to strongest and weakest dispositions, results are mixed. Some participants see Tact and Judgment as their strongest disposition; others see it as their weakest. All participants stated mentoring is a necessary support at every phase of the teacher preparation process. This study informs the way teacher educators train and evaluate teacher candidates, and has implications for the frequency and types of feedback students receive from mentors and supervisors. This research contributes to existing work on teacher retention, candidate persistence, and dispositional development.

Keywords: English education, dispositions, persistence, teacher preparation

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Yinsheng Zhang

Abstract:

Changes in the extent and amount of snow cover in Eurasia are of great interest because of their vital impacts on the global climate system and regional water resource management. This study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of the snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) of continental Eurasia using the Northern Hemisphere Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid (EASE-Grid) Weekly SCE data for 1972–2006 and the Global Monthly EASE-Grid SWE data for 1979–2004. The results indicated that, in general, the spatial extent of snow cover significantly decreased during spring and summer, but varied little during autumn and winter over Eurasia in the study period. The date at which snow cover began to disappear in spring has significantly advanced, whereas the timing of snow cover onset in autumn did not vary significantly during 1972–2006. The snow cover persistence period declined significantly in the western Tibetan Plateau as well as the partial area of Central Asia and northwestern Russia but varied little in other parts of Eurasia. ‘Snow-free breaks’ (SFBs) with intermittent snow cover in the cold season were mainly observed in the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia, causing a low sensitivity of snow cover persistence period to the timings of snow cover onset and disappearance over the areas with shallow snow. The averaged SFBs were 1–14 weeks in the Tibetan Plateau during 1972–2006 and the maximum intermittence could reach 25 weeks in some extreme years. At a seasonal scale, the SWE usually peaked in February or March but fell gradually since April across Eurasia. Both annual mean and annual maximum SWE decreased significantly during 1979–2004 in most parts of Eurasia except for eastern Siberia as well as northwestern and northeastern China.

Keywords: Eurasia, snow cover extent, snow cover persistence period, snow-free breaks, onset and disappearance timings, snow water equivalent

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Maruf Ariyo Raheem, Patrick Oseloka Ezepue

Abstract:

This research aimed at determining most appropriate heteroskedastic model to predicting volatility of 10 major Nigerian banks: Access, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust, Skye, Diamond, Fidelity, Sterling, Union, ETI and Zenith banks using daily closing stock prices of each of the banks from 2004 to 2014. The models employed include ARCH (1), GARCH (1, 1), EGARCH (1, 1) and TARCH (1, 1). The results show that all the banks returns are highly leptokurtic, significantly skewed and thus non-normal across the four periods except for Fidelity bank during financial crises; findings similar to those of other global markets. There is also strong evidence for the presence of heteroscedasticity, and that volatility persistence during crisis is higher than before the crisis across the 10 banks, with that of UBA taking the lead, about 11 times higher during the crisis. Findings further revealed that Asymmetric GARCH models became dominant especially during financial crises and post crises when the second reforms were introduced into the banking industry by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Generally, one could say that Nigerian banks returns are volatility persistent during and after the crises, and characterised by leverage effects of negative and positive shocks during these periods

Keywords: global financial crisis, leverage effect, persistence, volatility clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 496

Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

Abstract:

Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Sohanur Rahman, Elisabeth Sinnewe, Larelle (Ellie) Chapple, Sarah Osborne

Abstract:

Greater political attention to global climate change exposes firms to a higher level of political uncertainty, which can lead to adverse capital market consequences. However, a higher level of discourse on environment-specific political risk (EPR) between management and investors can mitigate information asymmetry, followed by less stock price crash risk. This study examines whether EPR discourse in discourse in the earnings conference calls (ECC) reduces firm-level stock price crash risk in the US market. This research also explores if adverse disclosures via media channels further moderates the association between EPR on crash risk. Employing a dataset of 28,933 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2020, the empirical analysis reveals that EPR discourse in ECC reduces future stock price crash risk. However, adverse disclosures via media channels can offset the favourable effect of EPR discourse on crash risk. The results are robust to the potential endogeneity concern in a quasi-natural experiment setting.

Keywords: earnings conference calls, environment, environment-specific political risk discourse, environmental disclosures, information asymmetry, reputation risk, stock price crash risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Rochelle Elva

Abstract:

Faculty in Higher Education today are faced with the challenge of convincing their students of the importance of learning and mastery of skills. This is because most students often have a single motivation -to get high grades. If it appears that this goal will not be met, they lose their motivation, and their academic efforts wane. This is true even for students in the competitive fields of STEM, including Computer Science majors. As educators, we have to understand our students and leverage what motivates them to achieve our learning outcomes. This paper presents a case study that utilizes cognitive psychology’s Expectancy Value Theory and Motivation Theory to investigate the effect of sustained expectancy for success on students’ learning outcomes. In our case study, we explore how students’ motivation and persistence in their academic efforts are impacted by providing them with an unexpected possible path to success that continues to the end of the semester. The approach was tested in an undergraduate computer science course with n = 56. The results of the study indicate that when presented with the real possibility of success, despite existing low grades, both low and high-scoring students persisted in their efforts to improve their performance. Their final grades were, on average, one place higher on the +/-letter grade scale, with some students scoring as high as three places above their predicted grade.

Keywords: expectancy for success and persistence, motivation and performance, computer science education, motivation and performance in computer science

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Richa Rai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to analyze the role of the services sector in economic development of Indian economy, especially in the post reform period. Due to adoption of liberalization policy in developing economy like India, international transaction in services has been increased at a rapid pace which compensated to the current account of Balance of Payment which was in a pitiable condition. But this increased share of services in GDP is not commensurate with share in employment, which is a matter of great concern for Indian economy. Although the increased share of service in GDP indicates the advanced stage of growth of the economy, but this theory is not applicable in context of Indian economy completely. In the preliminary stage, this study finds a positive correlation between growth of services and export earnings and gross domestic product and this growth of services is not equal in terms of all aspects on Indian economy, and also all components of services has not been increased at an equal rate. This paper seeks to examine the impact of liberalization in post reform era on the growth of services in India. The analysis is done for the period of 1991 to 2013. Data has been collected from the secondary sources, especially from the website of Reserve Bank of India, World Trade Organization, and United Nation Conference on Trade and Development. The data has been analyzed with the help of appropriate statistical tools (Causality Relation and Group t-test).

Keywords: export earnings, GDP, gross domestic product, liberalization, services

Procedia PDF Downloads 107