Search results for: conditional heteroskedasticity

Authors: Edward Shizha

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Citizenship is not only political, but it is also a socio-cultural expectation that naturalized immigrants desire for. However, the outcomes of citizenship desirability are determined by forces outside the individual’s control based on legislation and laws that are designed at the macro and exosystemic levels by politicians and policy makers. These laws are then applied to determine the status (permanency or temporariness) of citizenship for immigrants and refugees, but the same laws do not apply to non-immigrant citizens who attain it by birth. While theoretically, citizenship has generally been considered an irrevocable legal status and the highest and most secure legal status one can hold in a state, it is not inviolate for immigrants. While Article 8 of the United Nations Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness provides grounds for revocation of citizenship obtained by immigrants and refugees in host countries, nation-states have their own laws tied to the convention that provide grounds for revocation. Ever since the 9/11 attacks in the USA, there has been a rise in conditional citizenship and the state’s withdrawal of citizenship through revocation laws that denaturalize citizens who end up not merely losing their citizenship but also the right to reside in the country of immigration. Because immigrants can be perceived as a security threat, the securitization of citizenship and the legislative changes have been adopted to specifically allow greater discretionary power in stripping people of their citizenship.The paper ‘Do We Really Belong Here?’ Transnationalism and the Temporality of Naturalized Citizenship examines literature on the temporality of naturalized citizenship and questions whether citizenship, for newcomers (immigrants and refugees), is a protected human right or a privilege. The paper argues that citizenship in a host country is a well sought-after status by newcomers. The question is whether their citizenship, if granted, has a permanent or temporary status and whether it is treated in the same way as that of non-immigrant citizens. The paper further argues that, despite citizenship having generally been considered an irrevocable status in most Western countries, in practice, if not in law, for immigrants and refugees, citizenship comes with strings attached because of policies and laws that control naturalized citizenship. These laws can be used to denationalize naturalized citizens through revocations for those stigmatized as ‘undesirables’ who are threatened with deportation. Whereas non-immigrant citizens (those who attain it by birth) have absolute right to their citizenship, this is seldom the case for immigrants.This paper takes a multidisciplinary approach using Urie Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory, the macrosystem and exo-system, to examine and review literature on the temporality of naturalized citizenship and questions whether citizenship is a protected right or a privilege for immigrants. The paper challenges the human rights violation of citizenship revocation and argues for equality of treatment for all citizens despite how they acquired their citizenship. The fragility of naturalized citizenship undermines the basic rights and securities that citizenship status can provide to the person as an inclusive practice in a diverse society.

Keywords: citizenship, citizenship revocation, dual citizenship, human rights, naturalization, naturalized citizenship

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Authors: Ghirmay Teklemicheal, Samsom Mehari, Sara Tesfay

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Objectives: A total of 1074 suspected chikungunya cases were reported in Tesseney Province, Gash Barka region, Eritrea, during an outbreak. This study was aimed to assess the possible association of chikungunya severity among ABO blood groups and other potential determinants. Methods: A sex-matched and age-matched case-control study was conducted during the outbreak. For each case, one control subject had been selected from the mild Chikungunya cases. Along the same line of argument, a second control subject had also been designated through which neighborhood of cases were analyzed, scrutinized, and appeared to the scheme of comparison. Time is always the most sacrosanct element in pursuance of any study. According to the temporal calculation, this study was pursued from October 15, 2018, to November 15, 2018. Coming to the methodological dependability, calculating odds ratios (ORs) and conditional (fixed-effect) logistic regression methods were being applied. As a consequence of this, the data was analyzed and construed on the basis of the aforementioned methodological systems. Results: In this outbreak, 137 severe suspected chikungunya cases and 137 mild chikungunya suspected patients, and 137 controls free of chikungunya from the neighborhood of cases were analyzed. Non-O individuals compared to those with O blood group indicated as significant with a p-value of 0.002. Separate blood group comparison among A and O blood groups reflected as significant with a p-value of 0.002. However, there was no significant difference in the severity of chikungunya among B, AB, and O blood groups with a p-value of 0.113 and 0.708, respectively, and a strong association of chikungunya severity was found with hypertension and diabetes (p-value of < 0.0001); whereas, there was no association between chikungunya severity and asthma with a p-value of 0.695 and also no association with pregnancy (p-value =0.881), ventilator (p-value =0.181), air conditioner (p-value = 0.247), and didn’t use latrine and pit latrine (p-value = 0.318), among individuals using septic and pit latrine (p-value = 0.567) and also among individuals using flush and pit latrine (p-value = 0.194). Conclusions: Non- O blood groups were found to be at risk more than their counterpart O blood group individuals with severe form of chikungunya disease. By the same token, individuals with chronic disease were more prone to severe forms of the disease in comparison with individuals without chronic disease. Prioritization is recommended for patients with chronic diseases and non-O blood group since they are found to be susceptible to severe chikungunya disease. Identification of human cell surface receptor(s) for CHIKV is quite necessary for further understanding of its pathophysiology in humans. Therefore, molecular and functional studies will necessarily be helpful in disclosing the association of blood group antigens and CHIKV infections.

Keywords: Chikungunya, Chikungunya virus, disease outbreaks, case-control studies, Eritrea

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Authors: Alexander Buhr, Klaus Ehrenfried

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Trackside induced airflow velocities, also known as slipstream velocities, are an important criterion for the design of high-speed trains. The maximum permitted values are given by the Technical Specifications for Interoperability (TSI) and have to be checked in the approval process. For train manufactures it is of great interest to know in advance, how new train geometries would perform in TSI tests. The Reynolds number in moving model experiments is lower compared to full-scale. Especially the limited model length leads to a thinner boundary layer at the rear end. The hypothesis is that the boundary layer rolls up to characteristic flow structures in the train wake, in which the maximum flow velocities can be observed. The idea is to enlarge the boundary layer using roughness elements at the train model head so that the ratio between the boundary layer thickness and the car width at the rear end is comparable to a full-scale train. This may lead to similar flow structures in the wake and better prediction accuracy for TSI tests. In this case, the design of the roughness elements is limited by the moving model rig. Small rectangular roughness shapes are used to get a sufficient effect on the boundary layer, while the elements are robust enough to withstand the high accelerating and decelerating forces during the test runs. For this investigation, High-Speed Particle Image Velocimetry (HS-PIV) measurements on an ICE3 train model have been realized in the moving model rig of the DLR in Göttingen, the so called tunnel simulation facility Göttingen (TSG). The flow velocities within the boundary layer are analysed in a plain parallel to the ground. The height of the plane corresponds to a test position in the EN standard (TSI). Three different shapes of roughness elements are tested. The boundary layer thickness and displacement thickness as well as the momentum thickness and the form factor are calculated along the train model. Conditional sampling is used to analyse the size and dynamics of the flow structures at the time of maximum velocity in the train wake behind the train. As expected, larger roughness elements increase the boundary layer thickness and lead to larger flow velocities in the boundary layer and in the wake flow structures. The boundary layer thickness, displacement thickness and momentum thickness are increased by using larger roughness especially when applied in the height close to the measuring plane. The roughness elements also cause high fluctuations in the form factors of the boundary layer. Behind the roughness elements, the form factors rapidly are approaching toward constant values. This indicates that the boundary layer, while growing slowly along the second half of the train model, has reached a state of equilibrium.

Keywords: boundary layer, high-speed PIV, ICE3, moving train model, roughness elements

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Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

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Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

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Authors: Danish Gadda

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Kashmir has been a bleeding-spot in the South Asian politics since 1947 when the subcontinent was bifurcated into Hindu, India and Muslim Pakistan by the departing British colonisers. Kashmir couldn’t accede to either of the two new-born, sovereign nations until tribal invasion from Pakistan forced an unfortunate change of events. India, driven by conditional accession signed by the Kashmir’s last monarch, sent its army to defend Kashmir Valley, with a promise, made subsequently, that the region’s fate would be decided by the natives through an internationally-monitored plebiscite. The country, however, broke its promise, choosing not to withdraw its military to allow the plebiscite, and, instead, strengthened its claim over Kashmir, which it later started describing as her integral part. War, fought in the shape of three and a half bloody battles, ensued between India and Pakistan, even as the United Nations’ intervention managed a ceasefire as early as in the 1950s, though not before Kashmir had come to be divided into its India-controlled and Pakistan-controlled halves. Prolonged, the dispute over Kashmir took a violent turn in 1989-90 with the start of an anti-India armed rebellion. Kashmiris have been fighting for their right to self-determination, and bringing their own life to a grinding halt has been one of their preferred forms of protest against the Indian rule. This form of resistance is locally called ‘Hartals’, and recognised as shutdowns, which have often been prolonged and violent. Since 1989-90, the shutdowns have become only more frequent and forceful, and there are marked days on which Kashmir shuts down in protest every year, like a ritual. This paper is based on a study of how the Indian and Kashmir press covered the shutdowns observed in the troubled valley on four such days: January 26 (Indian Republic Day), February 11 (the day on which India executed a prominent Kashmiri resistance leader), August 15 (India’s Independence Day), and October 27 (the day on which the Indian military has landed in Kashmir). The coverage given by the Indian and Kashmiri press to the shutdowns observed on these days has been studied using the multi-tier content analysis approach: 1) Difference in the number of shutdowns covered by the two section is looked at, 2) the placement of the stories in the two section of the press is analysed, 3) the discourse highlighted by the two section of the press is compared, and 4) the editorials written by the two section of the press about the shutdowns are analysed. The findings show the Indian and the local press have been focussing on the two, predictable extremes of the situation: the Indian press has favoured the state, while the Kashmir or the local press has focussed on the narrative opposing the state’s. The difference is noticed in the quantitative as well as the qualitative aspects of their coverage.

Keywords: Indo-Pak tension, Kashmir conflict, protest shutdowns, South-Asian politics

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Authors: Monica Santi, Evita Puspitasari

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International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) has developed the principle based accounting standard. Based on this, IASB then eliminated the conservatism concept within accounting framework. Conservatism concept represents a prudent reaction to uncertainty to try to ensure that uncertainties and risk inherent in business situations are adequately considered. The conservatism concept has two ingredients: conditional conservatism or ex-post (news depending prudence) and unconditional conservatism or ex-ante (news-independent prudence). IFRS in substance disregards the unconditional conservatism because the unconditional conservatism can cause the understatement assets or overstated liabilities, and eventually the financial statement would be irrelevance since the information does not represent the real fact. Therefore, the IASB eliminate the conservatism concept. However, it does not decrease the practice of unconditional conservatism in the financial statement reporting. Therefore, we expected the earnings quality would be affected because of this situation, even though the IFRS implementation was expected to increase the earnings quality. The objective of this study was to provide empirical findings about the unconditional conservatism and the earnings quality before and after the IFRS adoption. The earnings per accrual measure were used as the proxy for the unconditional conservatism. If the earnings per accrual were negative (positive), it meant the company was classified as the conservative (not conservative). The earnings quality was defined as the ability of the earnings in reflecting the future earnings by considering the earnings persistence and stability. We used the earnings response coefficient (ERC) as the proxy for the earnings quality. ERC measured the extant of a security’s abnormal market return in response to the unexpected component of reporting earning of the firm issuing that security. The higher ERC indicated the higher earnings quality. The manufacturing companies listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) were used as the sample companies, and the 2009-2010 period was used to represent the condition before the IFRS adoption, and 2011-2013 was used to represent the condition after the IFRS adoption. Data was analyzed using the Mann-Whitney test and regression analysis. We used the firm size as the control variable with the consideration the firm size would affect the earnings quality of the company. This study had proved that the unconditional conservatism had not changed, either before and after the IFRS adoption period. However, we found the different findings for the earnings quality. The earnings quality had decreased after the IFRS adoption period. This empirical results implied that the earnings quality before the IFRS adoption was higher. This study also had found that the unconditional conservatism positively influenced the earnings quality insignificantly. The findings implied that the implementation of the IFRS had not decreased the unconditional conservatism practice and has not altered the earnings quality of the manufacturing company. Further, we found that the unconditional conservatism did not affect the earnings quality. Eventhough the empirical result shows that the unconditional conservatism gave positive influence to the earnings quality, but the influence was not significant. Thus, we concluded that the implementation of the IFRS did not increase the earnings quality.

Keywords: earnings quality, earnings response coefficient, IFRS Adoption, unconditional conservatism

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Authors: Rakesh Mishra, Rajni Singh, Mukunda Upadhyay

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Since the last few decades, the prima facie of development has shifted towards the working population in India. There has been a paradigm shift in the development approach with the realization that the present demographic dividend has to be harnessed for sustainable development. Rapid urbanization and improved socioeconomic characteristics experienced within its territory has catalyzed various forms of migration into it, resulting in massive transference of workforce between its states. Workforce in any country plays a very crucial role in deciding development of both the places, from where they have out-migrated and the place they are residing currently. In India, people are found to be migrating from relatively less developed states to a well urbanized and developed state for satisfying their neediness. Linking migration to HDI at place of destination, the regression coefficient (β ̂) shows affirmative association between them, because higher the HDI of the place would be, higher would be chance of earning and hence likeliness of the migrants would be more to choose that place as a new destination and vice versa. So the push factor is compromised by the cost of rearing and provides negative impulse on the in migrants letting down their numbers to metro cities or megacities of the states but increasing their mobility to the suburban areas and vice versa. The main objective of the study is to check the role of migration in deciding the dividend of the place of destination as well as people at the place of their usual residence with special focus to highly urban states in India. Idealized scenario of Indian migrants refers to some new theories in making. On analyzing the demographic dividend of the places we got to know that Uttar Pradesh provides maximum dividend to Maharashtra, West Bengal and Delhi, and the demographic divided of migrants are quite comparable to the native’s shares in the demographic dividend in these places. On analyzing the data from National Sample Survey 64th round and Census of India-2001, we have observed that for males in rural areas, the share of unemployed person declined by 9 percentage points (from 45% before migration to 36 % after migration) and for females in rural areas the decline was nearly 12 percentage points (from 79% before migration to 67% after migration. It has been observed that the shares of unemployed males in both rural and urban areas, which were significant before migration, got reduced after migration while the share of unemployed females in the rural as well as in the urban areas remained almost negligible both for before and after migration. So increase in the number of employed after migration provides an indication of changes in the associated cofactors like health and education of the place of destination and arithmetically to the place from where they have migrated out. This paper presents the evidence on the patterns of prevailing migration dynamics and corresponding demographic benefits in India and its states, examines trends and effects, and discusses plausible explanations.

Keywords: migration, demographic shift, human development index, multilevel analysis

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Authors: Chang Liu, Rui Xing, Liyan Tang, Guohong Wang

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Entrepreneurial actions are based on entrepreneurial decisions. The quality of decisions influences entrepreneurial activities and subsequent new venture performance. Uncertainty of surroundings put heightened demands on the team as a whole, and each team member. Diverse team composition provides rich information, which a team can draw when making complex decisions. However, team heterogeneity may cause emotional conflicts, which is adverse to team outcomes. Thus, the effects of team heterogeneity on team outcomes are complex. Although team heterogeneity is an essential factor influencing entrepreneurial decision-making, there is a lack of empirical analysis on under what conditions team heterogeneity plays a positive role in promoting decision-making quality. Entrepreneurial teams always struggle with complex tasks. How a team shapes its teamwork is key in resolving constant issues. As a collective regulatory process, team reflexivity is characterized by continuous joint evaluation and discussion of team goals, strategies, and processes, and adapt them to current or anticipated circumstances. It enables diversified information to be shared and overtly discussed. Instead of hostile interpretation of opposite opinions team members take them as useful insights from different perspectives. Team reflexivity leads to better integration of expertise to avoid the interference of negative emotions and conflict. Therefore, we propose that team reflexivity is a conditional factor that influences the impact of team heterogeneity on high-quality entrepreneurial decisions. In this study, we identify team heterogeneity as a crucial determinant of entrepreneurial decision quality. Integrating the literature on decision-making and team heterogeneity, we investigate the relationship between team heterogeneity and entrepreneurial decision-making quality, treating team reflexivity as a moderator. We tested our hypotheses using the hierarchical regression method and the data gathered from 63 teams and 205 individual members from 45 new firms in China's first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. This research found that both teams' education heterogeneity and teams' functional background heterogeneity were significantly positively related to entrepreneurial decision-making quality, and the positive relation was stronger in teams with a high level of team reflexivity. While teams' specialization of education heterogeneity was negatively related to decision-making quality, and the negative relationship was weaker in teams with a high level of team reflexivity. We offer two contributions to decision-making and entrepreneurial team literatures. Firstly, our study enriches the understanding of the role of entrepreneurial team heterogeneity in entrepreneurial decision-making quality. Different from previous entrepreneurial decision-making literatures, which focus more on decision-making modes of entrepreneurs and the top management team, this study is a significant attempt to highlight that entrepreneurial team heterogeneity makes a unique contribution to generating high-quality entrepreneurial decisions. Secondly, this study introduced team reflexivity as the moderating variable, to explore the boundary conditions under which the entrepreneurial team heterogeneity play their roles.

Keywords: decision-making quality, entrepreneurial teams, education heterogeneity, functional background heterogeneity, specialization of education heterogeneity

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Authors: Nabiha Bouafia, Asma Ben Cheikh, Asma Ammar, Olfa Ezzi, Mohamed Mahjoub, Khaoula Meddeb, Imed Chouchene, Hamadi Boussarsar, Mansour Njah

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Background: Hospital acquired infections (HAI) cause significant morbidity, mortality, length of stay and hospital costs, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), because of the debilitated immune systems of their patients and exposure to invasive devices. The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the risk factors of HAI in an ICU of a university hospital in Tunisia. Materials/Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the 8-bed adult medical ICU of a University Hospital (Sousse Tunisia) during 14 months from September 15th, 2015 to November 15th, 2016. Patients admitted for more than 48h were included. Their surveillance was stopped after the discharge from ICU or death. HAIs were defined according to standard Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study, 192 patients had admitted for more than 48 hours. Their mean age was 59.3± 18.20 years and 57.1% were male. Acute respiratory failure was the main reason of admission (72%). The mean SAPS II score calculated at admission was 32.5 ± 14 (range: 6 - 78). The exposure to the mechanical ventilation (MV) and the central venous catheter were observed in 169 (88 %) and 144 (75 %) patients, respectively. Seventy-three patients (38.02%) developed 94 HAIs. The incidence density of HAIs was 41.53 per 1000 patient day. Mortality rate in patients with HAIs was 65.8 %( n= 48). Regarding the type of infection, Ventilator Associated Pneumoniae (VAP) and central venous catheter Associated Infections (CVC AI) were the most frequent with Incidence density: 14.88/1000 days of MV for VAP and 20.02/1000 CVC days for CVC AI. There were 5 Peripheral Venous Catheter Associated Infections, 2 urinary tract infections, and 21 other HAIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common germs identified in HAIs: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumanii (45%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.96%) were the most frequently isolated. Univariate analysis showed that transfer from another hospital department (p= 0.001), intubation (p < 10-4), tracheostomy (p < 10-4), age (p=0.028), grade of acute respiratory failure (p=0.01), duration of sedation (p < 10-4), number of CVC (p < 10-4), length of mechanical ventilation (p < 10-4) and length of stay (p < 10-4), were associated to high risk of HAIS in ICU. Multivariate analysis reveals that independent risk factors for HAIs are: transfer from another hospital department: OR=13.44, IC 95% [3.9, 44.2], p < 10-4, duration of sedation: OR= 1.18, IC 95% [1.049, 1.325], p=0.006, high number of CVC: OR=2.78, IC 95% [1.73, 4.487], p < 10-4, and length of stay in ICU: OR= 1.14, IC 95% [1.066,1.22], p < 10-4. Conclusion: Prevention of nosocomial infections in ICUs is a priority of health care systems all around the world. Yet, their control requires an understanding of epidemiological data collected in these units.

Keywords: healthcare associated infections, incidence, intensive care unit, risk factors

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Authors: Klaus Peter Scherer, Daniel Knöll, Constantin Rieder

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Problem and Purpose: Intelligent systems are available and helpful to support the human being decision process, especially when complex surgical eye interventions are necessary and must be performed. Normally, such a decision support system consists of a knowledge-based module, which is responsible for the real assistance power, given by an explanation and logical reasoning processes. The interview based acquisition and generation of the complex knowledge itself is very crucial, because there are different correlations between the complex parameters. So, in this project (semi)automated self-learning methods are researched and developed for an enhancement of the quality of such a decision support system. Methods: For ophthalmic data sets of real patients in a hospital, advanced data mining procedures seem to be very helpful. Especially subgroup analysis methods are developed, extended and used to analyze and find out the correlations and conditional dependencies between the structured patient data. After finding causal dependencies, a ranking must be performed for the generation of rule-based representations. For this, anonymous patient data are transformed into a special machine language format. The imported data are used as input for algorithms of conditioned probability methods to calculate the parameter distributions concerning a special given goal parameter. Results: In the field of knowledge discovery advanced methods and applications could be performed to produce operation and patient related correlations. So, new knowledge was generated by finding causal relations between the operational equipment, the medical instances and patient specific history by a dependency ranking process. After transformation in association rules logically based representations were available for the clinical experts to evaluate the new knowledge. The structured data sets take account of about 80 parameters as special characteristic features per patient. For different extended patient groups (100, 300, 500), as well one target value as well multi-target values were set for the subgroup analysis. So the newly generated hypotheses could be interpreted regarding the dependency or independency of patient number. Conclusions: The aim and the advantage of such a semi-automatically self-learning process are the extensions of the knowledge base by finding new parameter correlations. The discovered knowledge is transformed into association rules and serves as rule-based representation of the knowledge in the knowledge base. Even more, than one goal parameter of interest can be considered by the semi-automated learning process. With ranking procedures, the most strong premises and also conjunctive associated conditions can be found to conclude the interested goal parameter. So the knowledge, hidden in structured tables or lists can be extracted as rule-based representation. This is a real assistance power for the communication with the clinical experts.

Keywords: an expert system, knowledge-based support, ophthalmic decision support, self-learning methods

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Jakub Berčík, Elena Horská, Ľudmila Nagyová

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Nowadays, the point of sale remains one of the few channels of communication which is not oversaturated yet and has great potential for the future. The fact that purchasing decisions are significantly affected by emotions, while up to 75 % of them are implemented at the point of sale, only demonstrates its importance. The share of impulsive purchases is about 60-75 %, depending on the particular product category. Nevertheless, habits predetermine the content of the shopping cart above all and hence in this regard the role of in-store communication is to disrupt the routine and compel the customer to try something new. This is the reason why it is essential to know how to work with this relatively young branch of marketing communication as efficiently as possible. New global trend in this discipline is evaluating the effectiveness of particular tools in the in-store communication. To increase the efficiency it is necessary to become familiar with the factors affecting the customer both consciously and unconsciously, and that is a task for neuromarketing and sensory marketing. It is generally known that the customer remembers the negative experience much longer and more intensely than the positive ones, therefore it is essential for marketers to avoid this negative experience. The final effect of POP (Point of Purchase) or POS (Point of Sale) tools is conditional not only on their quality and design, but also on the location at the point of sale which contributes to the overall positive atmosphere in the store. Therefore, in-store advertising is increasingly in the center of attention and companies are willing to spend even a third of their marketing communication budget on it. The paper deals with a comprehensive, interdisciplinary research of the impact of traditional as well as innovative tools of in-store communication on the attention and emotional state (valence and arousal) of consumers on the food market. The research integrates measurements with eye camera (Eye tracker) and electroencephalograph (EEG) in real grocery stores as well as in laboratory conditions with the purpose of recognizing attention and emotional response among respondents under the influence of selected tools of in-store communication. The object of the research includes traditional (e.g. wobblers, stoppers, floor graphics) and innovative (e.g. displays, wobblers with LED elements, interactive floor graphics) tools of in-store communication in the fresh unpackaged food segment. By using a mobile 16-channel electroencephalograph (EEG equipment) from the company EPOC, a mobile eye camera (Eye tracker) from the company Tobii and a stationary eye camera (Eye tracker) from the company Gazepoint, we observe the attention and emotional state (valence and arousal) to reveal true consumer preferences using traditional and new unusual communication tools at the point of sale of the selected foodstuffs. The paper concludes with suggesting possibilities for rational, effective and energy-efficient combination of in-store communication tools, by which the retailer can accomplish not only captivating and attractive presentation of displayed goods, but ultimately also an increase in retail sales of the store.

Keywords: electroencephalograph (EEG), emotion, eye tracker, in-store communication

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Authors: Oluwatobiloba Moody

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On October 12, 2014, the Nagoya Protocol, negotiated by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), entered into force. The Protocol was negotiated to implement the third objective of the CBD which relates to the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources (GRs). The Protocol aims to ‘protect’ GRs and traditional knowledge (TK) associated with GRs from ‘biopiracy’, through the establishment of a binding international regime on access and benefit sharing (ABS). In reflecting on the question of ‘effectiveness’ in the Protocol’s implementation, this paper argues that the underlying problem of ‘biopiracy’, which the Protocol seeks to address, is one which goes beyond the ABS regime. It rather thrives due to indispensable factors emanating from the global intellectual property (IP) regime. It contends that biopiracy therefore constitutes an international problem of ‘borders’ as much as of ‘regimes’ and, therefore, while the implementation of the Protocol may effectively address the ‘trans-border’ issues which have hitherto troubled African provider countries in their establishment of regulatory mechanisms, it remains unable to address the ‘trans-regime’ issues related to the eradication of biopiracy, especially those issues which involve the IP regime. This is due to the glaring incoherence in the Nagoya Protocol’s implementation and the existing global IP system. In arriving at conclusions, the paper examines the ongoing related discussions within the IP regime, specifically those within the WIPO Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore (IGC) and the WTO TRIPS Council. It concludes that the Protocol’s effectiveness in protecting TK associated with GRs is conditional on the attainment of outcomes, within the ongoing negotiations of the IP regime, which could be implemented in a coherent manner with the Nagoya Protocol. It proposes specific ways to achieve this coherence. Three main methodological steps have been incorporated in the paper’s development. First, a review of data accumulated over a two year period arising from the coordination of six important negotiating sessions of the WIPO Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore. In this respect, the research benefits from reflections on the political, institutional and substantive nuances which have coloured the IP negotiations and which provide both the context and subtext to emerging texts. Second, a desktop review of the history, nature and significance of the Nagoya Protocol, using relevant primary and secondary literature from international and national sources. Third, a comparative analysis of selected biopiracy cases is undertaken for the purpose of establishing the inseparability of the IP regime and the ABS regime in the conceptualization and development of solutions to biopiracy. A comparative analysis of select African regulatory mechanisms (Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia and the ARIPO Swakopmund Protocol) for the protection of TK is also undertaken.

Keywords: biopiracy, intellectual property, Nagoya protocol, traditional knowledge

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Authors: Saul Estrin, Ute Stephan, Suncica Vujic

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Background and research question: Gender differences in pay are present at all organisational levels, including at the very top. One possible way for women to circumvent organizational norms and discrimination is to engage in entrepreneurship because, as CEOs of their own organizations, entrepreneurs largely determine their own pay. While commercial entrepreneurship plays an important role in job creation and economic growth, social entrepreneurship has come to prominence because of its promise of addressing societal challenges such as poverty, social exclusion, or environmental degradation through market-based rather than state-sponsored activities. This opens the research question whether social entrepreneurship might be a form of entrepreneurship in which the pay of men and women is the same, or at least more similar; that is to say there is little or no gender pay gap. If the gender gap in pay persists also at the top of social enterprises, what are the factors, which might explain these differences? Methodology: The Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition (OBD) is the standard approach of decomposing the gender pay gap based on the linear regression model. The OBD divides the gender pay gap into the ‘explained’ part due to differences in labour market characteristics (education, work experience, tenure, etc.), and the ‘unexplained’ part due to differences in the returns to those characteristics. The latter part is often interpreted as ‘discrimination’. There are two issues with this approach. (i) In many countries there is a notable convergence in labour market characteristics across genders; hence the OBD method is no longer revealing, since the largest portion of the gap remains ‘unexplained’. (ii) Adding covariates to a base model sequentially either to test a particular coefficient’s ‘robustness’ or to account for the ‘effects’ on this coefficient of adding covariates might be problematic, due to sequence-sensitivity when added covariates are correlated. Gelbach’s decomposition (GD) addresses latter by using the omitted variables bias formula, which constructs a conditional decomposition thus accounting for sequence-sensitivity when added covariates are correlated. We use GD to decompose the differences in gaps of pay (annual and hourly salary), size of the organisation (revenues), effort (weekly hours of work), and sources of finances (fees and sales, grants and donations, microfinance and loans, and investors’ capital) between men and women leading social enterprises. Database: Our empirical work is made possible by our collection of a unique dataset using respondent driven sampling (RDS) methods to address the problem that there is as yet no information on the underlying population of social entrepreneurs. The countries that we focus on are the United Kingdom, Spain, Romania and Hungary. Findings and recommendations: We confirm the existence of a gender pay gap between men and women leading social enterprises. This gap can be explained by differences in the accumulation of human capital, psychological and social factors, as well as cross-country differences. The results of this study contribute to a more rounded perspective, highlighting that although social entrepreneurship may be a highly satisfying occupation, it also perpetuates gender pay inequalities.

Keywords: Gelbach’s decomposition, gender gap, returns to social entrepreneurship, values and preferences

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Authors: Alba Barbara-i-Molinero, Rosalia Cascon-Pereira, Ana Beatriz Hernandez

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Students’ transitions from high school to the university have been challenged by the lack of continuity between both contexts. This mismatch directly affects students by generating feelings of anxiety and uncertainty, which increases the dropout rates and reduces students’ academic success. This discontinuity emanates because ‘transitions concern a restructuring of what the person does and who the person perceives him or herself to be’. Hence, identity becomes essential in these transitions. Generally, identity is the answer to questions such as who am I? or who are we? This is integrated by personal identity, and as many social identities as groups, the individual feels he/she is a part. A case in point to construct a social identity is the identification with a profession. For this reason, a way to lighten the generated tension during transitions is applying strategies orientated to enhance students’ professional identity in their point of entry to the higher education institution. That would create a sense of continuity between high school and higher education contexts, increasing their Professional Identity Strength. To develop the strategies oriented to enhance students Professional Identity, it is important to analyze what influences it. There exist several influencing factors that influence Professional Identity (e.g., professional status, the recommendation of family and peers, the academic environment, or the chosen bachelor degree). There is a gap in the literature analyzing the impact of these factors on more than one bachelor degree. In this regards, our study takes an additional step with the aim of evaluating the influence of several factors on Professional Identity using a cohort of university students from multiple degrees between the ages of 17-19 years. To do so, we used hierarchical regression analyses to assess the impact of the following factors: External Motivation Conditionals (EMC), Educational Experience Conditionals (EEC) and Personal Motivational Conditional (PMP). After conducting the analyses, we found that the assessed factors influenced students’ professional identity differently according to their bachelor degree and discipline. For example, PMC and EMC positively affected science students, while architecture, law and economics and engineering students were just influenced by PMC. Basing on that influences, we proposed three different strategies aimed to enhance students’ professional identity, in the short and long term. These strategies are: to enhance students’ professional identity before the incorporation to university through campuses and icebreaker activities; to apply recruitment strategies aimed to provide realistic information of the bachelor degree; and to incorporate different activities, such as in-vitro, in situ and self-directed activities aimed to enhance longitudinally students’ professional identity from the university. From these results, theoretical contributions and practical implications arise. First, we contribute to the literature by identifying which factors influence students from different bachelor degrees since there is still no evidence. And, second, using as a benchmark the obtained results, we contribute from a practical perspective, by proposing several alternative strategies to increase students’ professional identity strength aiming to lighten their transition from high school to higher education.

Keywords: professional identity, higher education, educational strategies , students

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Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

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Authors: Lei Li, Ping Yin, Haneen Khreis

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Stroke is the second leading cause of death and a third leading cause of death and disability worldwide in 2019. Given the significant role of environmental factors in stroke development and progression, it is essential to investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke occurrence while considering the modifying effects of meteorological variables. This study aimed to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and the incidence of stroke subtypes in Shenzhen, China, and to explore the potential interactions of meteorological factors with air pollutants. The study analyzed data from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014, including 88,214 cases of ischemic stroke and 30,433 cases of hemorrhagic stroke among residents of Shenzhen. Using a time-stratified case–crossover design with conditional quasi-Poisson regression, the study estimated the percentage changes in stroke morbidity associated with short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 mm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃). A five-day moving average of air pollution was applied to capture the cumulative effects of air pollution. The estimates were further stratified by sex, age, education level, and season. The additive and multiplicative interaction between air pollutants and meteorologic variables were assessed by the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) and adding the interactive term into the main model, respectively. The study found that NO₂ was positively associated with ischemic stroke occurrence throughout the year and in the cold season (November through April), with a stronger effect observed among men. Each 10 μg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of NO₂ was associated with a 2.38% (95% confidence interval was 1.36% to 3.41%) increase in the risk of ischemic stroke over the whole year and a 3.36% (2.04% to 4.69%) increase in the cold season. The harmful effect of CO on ischemic stroke was observed only in the cold season, with each 1 mg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of CO increasing the risk by 12.34% (3.85% to 21.51%). There was no statistically significant additive interaction between individual air pollutants and temperature or relative humidity, as demonstrated by the RERI. The interaction term in the model showed a multiplicative antagonistic effect between NO₂ and temperature (p-value=0.0268). For hemorrhagic stroke, no evidence of the effects of any individual air pollutants was found in the whole population. However, the RERI indicated a statistically additive and multiplicative interaction of temperature on the effects of PM10 and O₃ on hemorrhagic stroke onset. Therefore, the insignificant conclusion should be interpreted with caution. The study suggests that environmental NO₂ and CO might increase the morbidity of ischemic stroke, particularly during the cold season. These findings could help inform policy decisions aimed at reducing air pollution levels to prevent stroke and other health conditions. Additionally, the study provides valuable insights into the interaction between air pollution and meteorological variables, which underscores the need for further research into the complex relationship between environmental factors and health.

Keywords: air pollution, meteorological variables, interactive effect, seasonal pattern, stroke

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Authors: Yih-Wenn Laih

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In recent times, the dependence and co-movement among international financial markets have become stronger than in the past, as evidenced by commentaries in the news media and the financial sections of newspapers. Studying the co-movement between returns in financial markets is an important issue for portfolio management and risk management. The realization of co-movement helps investors to identify the opportunities for international portfolio management in terms of asset allocation and pricing. Since the election of the new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in November 2012, the yen has weakened against the US dollar from the 80 to the 120 level. The policies, known as “Abenomics,” are to encourage private investment through a more aggressive mix of monetary and fiscal policy. Given the close economic relations and competitions among Asia markets, it is interesting to discover the co-movement relations, affected by the depreciation of yen, between stock market of Japan and 5 major Asia stock markets, including China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Specifically, we devote ourselves to measure the co-movement of stock markets between Japan and each one of the 5 Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. To compute the coefficients, return series of each stock market is first fitted by a skewed-t GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model. Secondly, to measure the dependence structure between matched stock markets, we employ the symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula to calculate the probability density function of paired skewed-t distributions. The joint probability density function is then utilized as the scoring scheme to optimize the sequence alignment by dynamic programming method. Finally, we compute the rank correlation coefficients (Kendall's  and Spearman's ) between matched stock markets based on their aligned sequences. We collect empirical data of 6 stock indexes from Taiwan Economic Journal. The data is sampled at a daily frequency covering the period from January 1, 2013 to July 31, 2015. The empirical distributions of returns indicate fatter tails than the normal distribution. Therefore, the skewed-t distribution and SJC copula are appropriate for characterizing the data. According to the computed Kendall’s τ, Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan, followed by Taiwan, China, and Singapore; the weakest is Hong Kong. On the other hand, the Spearman’s ρ reveals that the strength of co-movement between markets with Japan in decreasing order are Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. We explore the effects of “Abenomics” on Asia stock markets by measuring the co-movement relation between Japan and five major Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. The matched markets are aligned by a hybrid method consisting of GARCH, copula and sequence alignment. Empirical experiments indicate that Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan. The strength of China and Taiwan are better than Singapore. The Hong Kong market has the weakest co-movement relation with Japan.

Keywords: co-movement, depreciation of Yen, rank correlation, stock market

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Authors: Karimova Sitora Yuldashevna

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The August 2021 resurgence of Taliban as a ruling force in Afghanistan once again challenged the global community into dealing with an unprecedentedly unlike-minded government. To express their disapproval of the new regime, Western governments and intergovernmental institutions have suspended their infrastructural projects and other forms of support. Moreover, the Afghan offshore reserves were frozen, and Afghanistan was disconnected from the international financial system, which impeded even independent aid agencies’ work. The already poor provision of aid was then further complicated with political conditionality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the efficacy of conditional aid policy in the Afghan peacebuilding under Taliban rule and provide recommendations to international donors on further course of action. Arguing that conditionality of aid is a counterproductive factor in the peacebuilding process, this paper employs scholarly literature on peacebuilding alongside reports from International non-governmental organizations INGOs who operate directly in Afghanistan. The existing debate on peacebuilding in Afghanistan revolves around aid as a means of building democratic foundation for achieving peace on communal and national levels and why the previous attempts to do so were unsuccessful. This paper focuses on how to recalibrate the approach to aid provision and peacebuilding in the new reality. In the early 2000s, amid the weak Post-Cold War international will for a profound engagement in the conflict, humanitarian and development aid became the new means of achieving peace. Aid agencies provided resources directly to communities, minimizing the risk of local disputes. Through subsidizing education, governance reforms, and infrastructural projects, international aid accelerated school enrollment, introduced peace education, funded provincial council and parliamentary elections, and helped rebuild a conflict-torn country.When the Taliban seized power, the international community called on them to build an inclusive government based on respect for human rights, particularly girls’ and women’s schooling and work, as a condition to retain the aid flow. As the Taliban clearly failed to meet the demands, development aid was withdrawn. Some key United Nation agencies also refrained from collaborating with the de-facto authorities. However, contrary to the intended change in Talibs’ behavior, such a move has only led to further deprivation of those whom the donors strived to protect. This is because concern for civilians has always been the second priority for the warring parties. This paper consists of four parts. First, it describes the scope of the humanitarian crisis that began in Afghanistan in 2001. Second, it examines the previous peacebuilding attempts undertaken by the international community and the contribution that the international aid had in the peacebuilding process. Third, the paper describes the current regime and its relationships with the international donors. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations for donors who would have to be more realistic and reconsider their priorities. While it is certainly not suggested that the Taliban regime is legitimized internationally, the crisis calls upon donors to be more flexible in collaborating with the de-facto authorities for the sake of the civilians.

Keywords: Afghanistan, international aid, donors, peacebuilding

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Authors: Ayon Mukherjee

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Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs use the available responses to skew the treatment allocation in a clinical trial in towards treatment found at an interim stage to be best for a given patient's covariate profile. Extensive research has been done on various aspects of CARA designs with the patient responses assumed to follow a parametric model. However, ranges of application for such designs are limited in real-life clinical trials where the responses infrequently fit a certain parametric form. On the other hand, robust estimates for the covariate-adjusted treatment effects are obtained from the parametric assumption. To balance these two requirements, designs are developed which are free from distributional assumptions about the survival responses, relying only on the assumption of proportional hazards for the two treatment arms. The proposed designs are developed by deriving two types of optimum allocation designs, and also by using a distribution function to link the past allocation, covariate and response histories to the present allocation. The optimal designs are based on biased coin procedures, with a bias towards the better treatment arm. These are the doubly-adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) and the efficient randomized adaptive design (ERADE). The treatment allocation proportions for these designs converge to the expected target values, which are functions of the Cox regression coefficients that are estimated sequentially. These expected target values are derived based on constrained optimization problems and are updated as information accrues with sequential arrival of patients. The design based on the link function is derived using the distribution function of a probit model whose parameters are adjusted based on the covariate profile of the incoming patient. To apply such designs, the treatment allocation probabilities are sequentially modified based on the treatment allocation history, response history, previous patients’ covariates and also the covariates of the incoming patient. Given these information, an expression is obtained for the conditional probability of a patient allocation to a treatment arm. Based on simulation studies, it is found that the ERADE is preferable to the DBCD when the main aim is to minimize the variance of the observed allocation proportion and to maximize the power of the Wald test for a treatment difference. However, the former procedure being discrete tends to be slower in converging towards the expected target allocation proportion. The link function based design achieves the highest skewness of patient allocation to the best treatment arm and thus ethically is the best design. Other comparative merits of the proposed designs have been highlighted and their preferred areas of application are discussed. It is concluded that the proposed CARA designs can be considered as suitable alternatives to the traditional balanced randomization designs in survival trials in terms of the power of the Wald test, provided that response data are available during the recruitment phase of the trial to enable adaptations to the designs. Moreover, the proposed designs enable more patients to get treated with the better treatment during the trial thus making the designs more ethically attractive to the patients. An existing clinical trial has been redesigned using these methods.

Keywords: censored response, Cox regression, efficiency, ethics, optimal allocation, power, variability

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Authors: David L. Knott, Robert Kingsland, Alistair Hitchon

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The proposed Newcastle Light Rail is a key part of the revitalisation of Newcastle, NSW and will provide a frequent and reliable travel option throughout the city centre, running from Newcastle Interchange at Wickham to Pacific Park in Newcastle East, a total of 2.7 kilometers in length. Approximately one-third of the route, along Hunter and Scott Streets, is subject to potential shallow underground mine workings. The extent of mining and seams mined is unclear. Convicts mined the Yard Seam and overlying Dudley (Dirty) Seam in Newcastle sometime between 1800 and 1830. The Australian Agricultural Company mined the Yard Seam from about 1831 to the 1860s in the alignment area. The Yard Seam was about 3 feet (0.9m) thick, and therefore, known as the Yard Seam. Mine maps do not exist for the workings in the area of interest and it was unclear if both or just one seam was mined. Information from 1830s geological mapping and other data showing shaft locations were used along Scott Street and information from the 1908 Royal Commission was used along Hunter Street to develop an investigation program. In addition, mining was encountered for several sites to the south of the alignment at depths of about 7 m to 25 m. Based on the anticipated depths of mining, it was considered prudent to assess the potential for sinkhole development on the proposed alignment and realigned underground utilities and to obtain approval for the work from Subsidence Advisory NSW (SA NSW). The assessment consisted of a desktop study, followed by a subsurface investigation. Four boreholes were drilled along Scott Street and three boreholes were drilled along Hunter Street using HQ coring techniques in the rock. The placement of boreholes was complicated by the presence of utilities in the roadway and traffic constraints. All the boreholes encountered the Yard Seam, with conditions varying from unmined coal to an open void, indicating the presence of mining. The geotechnical information obtained from the boreholes was expanded by using various downhole techniques including; borehole camera, borehole sonar, and downhole geophysical logging. The camera provided views of the rock and helped to explain zones of no recovery. In addition, timber props within the void were observed. Borehole sonar was performed in the void and provided an indication of room size as well as the presence of timber props within the room. Downhole geophysical logging was performed in the boreholes to measure density, natural gamma, and borehole deviation. The data helped confirm that all the mining was in the Yard Seam and that the overlying Dudley Seam had been eroded in the past over much of the alignment. In summary, the assessment allowed the potential for sinkhole subsidence to be assessed and a mitigation approach developed to allow conditional approval by SA NSW. It also confirmed the presence of mining in the Yard Seam, the depth to the seam and mining conditions, and indicated that subsidence did not appear to have occurred in the past.

Keywords: downhole investigation techniques, drilling, mine subsidence, yard seam

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Authors: Kathrin F. Schneider, Luis Xavier Unda Galarza

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In our modern world, few are the areas that are not permeated by digitalization: we use digital tools for work, study, entertainment, and daily life. Since technology changes rapidly, skills must adapt to the new reality, which gives a dynamic dimension to the set of skills necessary for people's academic, professional, and personal success. The concept of 21st-century digital skills, which includes skills such as collaboration, communication, digital literacy, citizenship, problem-solving, critical thinking, interpersonal skills, creativity, and productivity, have been widely discussed in the literature. Digital transformation has opened many economic opportunities for entrepreneurs for the development of their products, financing possibilities, and product distribution. One of the biggest advantages is the reduction in cost for the entrepreneur, which has opened doors not only for the entrepreneur or the entrepreneurial team but also for corporations through intrapreneurship. The development of students' general literacy level and their digital competencies is crucial for improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the learning process, as well as for students' adaptation to the constantly changing labor market. The digital economy allows a free substantial increase in the supply share of conditional and also innovative products; this is mainly achieved through 5 ways to reduce costs according to the conventional digital economy: search costs, replication, transport, tracking, and verification. Digital entrepreneurship worldwide benefits from such achievements. There is an expansion and democratization of entrepreneurship thanks to the use of digital technologies. The digital transformation that has been taking place in recent years is more challenging for developing countries, as they have fewer resources available to carry out this transformation while offering all the necessary support in terms of cybersecurity and educating their people. The degree of digitization (use of digital technology) in a country and the levels of digital literacy of its people often depend on the economic level and situation of the country. Telefónica's Digital Life Index (TIDL) scores are strongly correlated with country wealth, reflecting the greater resources that richer countries can contribute to promoting "Digital Life". According to the Digitization Index, Ecuador is in the group of "emerging countries", while Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay are in the group of "countries in transition". According to Herrera Espinoza et al. (2022), there are startups or digital ventures in Ecuador, especially in certain niches, but many of the ventures do not exceed six months of creation because they arise out of necessity and not out of the opportunity. However, there is a lack of relevant research, especially empirical research, to have a clearer vision. Through a self-report questionnaire, the digital skills of students will be measured in an Ecuadorian private university, according to the skills identified as the six 21st-century skills. The results will be put to the test against the variable of the intention to start a digital venture measured using the theory of planned behavior (TPB). The main hypothesis is that high digital competence is positively correlated with the intention to start digital entrepreneurship.

Keywords: new literacies, digital transformation, 21st century skills, theory of planned behavior, digital entrepreneurship

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Tsirekidze M., Aprasidze T.

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Introduction: The problem of dissocial behavior is at the heart of the social sciences and psychiatry; however, it should be noted that its psychiatric aspect is little studied, and some issues of the problem are still controversial. This is complicated by the diversity of terminological concepts in defining “dissocial behavior”, “behavioral disorder”, “abnormal behavior”, “deviant behavior”, “delinquent behavior”, etc. In literature, there is no comprehensive definition of the essence of dissociative behavior. Numerous attempts to systematize dissociative disorders should also be considered unsatisfactory, which is primarily related to the lack of solid criteria for defining this group of disorders. According to the clinical classification, dissocial behavior is divided into psychotic and non-psychotic forms. Such differentiation is conditional in nature since it is not always possible to draw precise, clear distinctions between these forms, and in addition, there is a transition of a behavior disorder or so-called intermediate forms. One group of authors distinguishes two main forms of deviant behavior in terms of both theoretical and practical significance - non-pathological and pathological. In recent years, especially, the non-pathological form of behavior disorder has become topical. It refers to a large group of forms of deviant behavior, the emergence of which is associated with psychologically full-fledged reactions of children and adolescents to stressful situations and extreme conditions. According to the authors, its concept is understandable-it is difficult to draw a line between psychologically understandable reactions and psychogenically induced reactive states. In addition, the concept of "normal" child and adolescent is, to some extent, a vague concept, as in medicine, any definition of the norm. From a practical (more precisely, pragmatic) point of view, the term "abnormal behavioral disorder" undoubtedly makes sense, especially for the purpose of forensic psychiatric examination. Non-pathological deviation mainly includes transient situational reactions, microsocial-pedagogical backwardness, and character accentuation.Deviant behavior was predominantly manifested in a non-pathological form, which, in our opinion, is due to the difficult socio-economic situation of the country, moral-ethical deprivation, and expressed frustration. By itself, society is an indicator of deviation. Add to this situation complicated factors such as micro-social-pedagogical leave, unfavorable family environment, and parenting defects. Consideration is also given to the connection of acceptable deviation with the personal structural features of the adolescent. Aim: The topic of our discussion is the dissocial behavior of the non-psychotic register. Methods: We surveyed 120 adolescents with deviant behaviors. 61% of them were diagnosed with various neuropsychiatric disorders. Results: Abnormal forms of deviant behavior were observed in 13%, and non-pathological forms in -69%. A combination of non-pathological and pathological forms was present in 10% of cases. In the case of non-pathological deviation, microsocial-pedagogical acceptance was revealed in 62%, character accentuation in 22%; during the pathological forms, pathological reactions were observed in 21%, and abnormal formation of the person -21%. Conclusion: It should be emphasized that in case of any of the above defects, if the so-called family psychosis, and medical and pedagogical habilitation measures for the adolescent, it is quite possible to prevent the abnormal development of the child's personality, correct his character, regulate behavior and develop positive labor-social relations.

Keywords: dissocial personality, deviant behavior, dissocial, delinquent behavior

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Jocelyne Uwibambe, Ange Thaina Ndizeye, Dinah Ishimwe, Emmanuel Mugabo Byakagaba

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Background: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the use of modern contraceptive methods among women, including adolescents, is still low despite the desire to avoid pregnancy. In addition, countries have set a minimum age for marriage, which is 21 years for most countries, including Rwanda. The Rwandan culture, to a certain extent, and religion, to a greater extent, however, limit the freedom of young women to use contraceptive services because it is wrongly perceived as an encouragement for premarital sexual intercourse. In the end, what doesn’t change is that denying access to contraceptives to either male or female adolescents does not translate into preventing them from sexual activities, hence leading to an ever-increasing number of unwanted pregnancies, possible STIs, HIV, Human Papilloma Virus, and subsequent unsafe abortion followed by avoidable expensive complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perception of healthcare providers regarding contraceptive use among adolescents. Methodology: This was a qualitative study. Interviews were done with different healthcare providers, including doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists, through focused group discussions and in-depth interviews, then the audio was transcribed, translated and thematic coding was done. Results: This study explored the perceptions of healthcare workers regarding the provision of modern contraception to adolescents in Rwanda. The findings revealed that while healthcare providers had a good understanding of family planning and contraception, they were hesitant to provide contraception to adolescents. Sociocultural beliefs played a significant role in shaping their attitudes, as many healthcare workers believed that providing contraception to adolescents would encourage promiscuous behavior and go against cultural norms. Religious beliefs also influenced their reluctance, with some healthcare providers considering premarital sex and contraception as sinful. Lack of knowledge among parents and adolescents themselves was identified as a contributing factor to unwanted pregnancies, as inaccurate information from peers and social media influenced risky sexual behavior. Conditional policies, such as the requirement for parental consent, further hindered adolescents' access to contraception. The study suggested several solutions, including comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education, involving multiple stakeholders, ensuring easy access to contraception, and involving adolescents in policymaking. Overall, this research highlights the need for addressing sociocultural beliefs, improving healthcare providers' knowledge, and revisiting policies to ensure adolescents' reproductive health rights are met in Rwanda. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of enhancing healthcare provider training, expanding access to modern contraception, implementing community-based interventions, and strengthening policy and programmatic support for adolescent contraception. Addressing these challenges is crucial for improving the provision of family planning services to adolescents in Rwanda and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to sexual and reproductive health. Collaborative efforts involving various stakeholders and organizations can contribute to overcoming these barriers and promoting the well-being of adolescents in Rwanda.

Keywords: adolescent, health care providers, contraception, reproductive health

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Authors: Daniela Stephanie Kuenstle

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Complex industries such as banking or insurance experience slow growth in mobile sales. While today’s mobile applications are sophisticated and enable location based and personalized services, consumers prefer online or even face-to-face services to complete complex transactions. A possible reason for this reluctance is that the provided service within transactional mobile applications (apps) does not adequately correspond to users’ needs. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of the user context on mobile service (m-service) in m-commerce. Motivated by the potential which context-sensitive m-services hold for the future, the impact of temporal variations as a dimension of user context, on m-service design is examined. In particular, the research question asks: Does consumer urgency function as a determinant of m-service composition in transactional apps by moderating the relation between m-service type and m-service success? Thus, the aim is to explore the moderating influence of urgency on m-service types, which includes Technology Mediated Service and Technology Generated Service. While mobile applications generally comprise features of both service types, this thesis discusses whether unexpected urgency changes customer preferences for m-service types and how this consequently impacts the overall m-service success, represented by purchase intention, loyalty intention and service quality. An online experiment with a random sample of N=1311 participants was conducted. Participants were divided into four treatment groups varying in m-service types and urgency level. They were exposed to two different urgency scenarios (high/ low) and two different app versions conveying either technology mediated or technology generated service. Subsequently, participants completed a questionnaire to measure the effectiveness of the manipulation as well as the dependent variables. The research model was tested for direct and moderating effects of m-service type and urgency on m-service success. Three two-way analyses of variance confirmed the significance of main effects, but demonstrated no significant moderation of urgency on m-service types. The analysis of the gathered data did not confirm a moderating effect of urgency between m-service type and service success. Yet, the findings propose an additive effects model with the highest purchase and loyalty intention for Technology Generated Service and high urgency, while Technology Mediated Service and low urgency demonstrate the strongest effect for service quality. The results also indicate an antagonistic relation between service quality and purchase intention depending on the level of urgency. Although a confirmation of the significance of this finding is required, it suggests that only service convenience, as one dimension of mobile service quality, delivers conditional value under high urgency. This suggests a curvilinear pattern of service quality in e-commerce. Overall, the paper illustrates the complex interplay of technology, user variables, and service design. With this, it contributes to a finer-grained understanding of the relation between m-service design and situation dependency. Moreover, the importance of delivering situational value with apps depending on user context is emphasized. Finally, the present study raises the demand to continue researching the impact of situational variables on m-service design in order to develop more sophisticated m-services.

Keywords: mobile consumer behavior, mobile service design, mobile service success, self-service technology, situation dependency, user-context sensitivity

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Authors: Leonid Zhukov, Dmytro Petrenko

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Optical thermometry has no alternative in many cases of industrial most effective continuous temperature control. Classical optical thermometry technologies can be used on available for pyrometers controlled objects with stable radiation characteristics and transmissivity of the intermediate medium. Without using temperature corrections, it is possible in the case of a “black” body for energy pyrometry and the cases of “black” and “grey” bodies for spectral ratio pyrometry or with using corrections – for any colored bodies. Consequently, with increasing the number of operating waves, optical thermometry possibilities to reduce methodical errors significantly expand. That is why, in recent 25-30 years, research works have been reoriented on more perfect spectral (multicolor) thermometry technologies. There are two physical material substances, i.e., substance (controlled object) and electromagnetic field (thermal radiation), to be operated in optical thermometry. Heat is transferred by radiation; therefore, radiation has the energy, entropy, and temperature. Optical thermometry was originating simultaneously with the developing of thermal radiation theory when the concept and the term "radiation temperature" was not used, and therefore concepts and terms "conditional temperatures" or "pseudo temperature" of controlled objects were introduced. They do not correspond to the physical sense and definitions of temperature in thermodynamics, molecular-kinetic theory, and statistical physics. Launched by the scientific thermometric society, discussion about the possibilities of temperature measurements of objects, including colored bodies, using the temperatures of their radiation is not finished. Are the information about controlled objects transferred by their radiation enough for temperature measurements? The positive and negative answers on this fundamental question divided experts into two opposite camps. Recent achievements of spectral thermometry develop events in her favour and don’t leave any hope for skeptics. This article presents the results of investigations and developments in the field of spectral thermometry carried out by the authors in the Department of Thermometry and Physics-Chemical Investigations. The authors have many-year’s of experience in the field of modern optical thermometry technologies. Innovative technologies of optical continuous temperature control have been developed: symmetric-wave, two-color compensative, and based on obtained nonlinearity equation of spectral emissivity distribution linear, two-range, and parabolic. Тhe technologies are based on direct measurements of physically substantiated and proposed by Prof. L. Zhukov, radiation temperatures with the next calculation of the controlled object temperature using this radiation temperatures and corresponding mathematical models. Тhe technologies significantly increase metrological characteristics of continuous contactless and light-guide temperature control in energy, metallurgical, ceramic, glassy, and other productions. For example, under the same conditions, the methodical errors of proposed technologies are less than the errors of known spectral and classical technologies in 2 and 3-13 times, respectively. Innovative technologies provide quality products obtaining at the lowest possible resource-including energy costs. More than 600 publications have been published on the completed developments, including more than 100 domestic patents, as well as 34 patents in Australia, Bulgaria, Germany, France, Canada, the USA, Sweden, and Japan. The developments have been implemented in the enterprises of USA, as well as Western Europe and Asia, including Germany and Japan.

Keywords: emissivity, radiation temperature, object temperature, spectral thermometry

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Authors: Vanita Singh

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In developing countries, there are conflicting political agendas; policy makers have to prioritize issues from a list of issues competing for the limited resources. Thus, it is imperative to understand how some issues gain attention, and others lose in the policy circles. Multiple-Streams Theory of Kingdon (1984) is among the influential theories that help to understand the public policy process and is utilitarian for health policy makers to understand how certain health issues emerge on the policy agendas. The issue of maternal mortality was long standing in India and was linked with high birth rate thus the focus of maternal health policy was on family planning since India’s independence. However, a paradigm shift was noted in the maternal health policy in the year 1992 with the launch of Safe Motherhood Programme and then in the year 2005, when the agenda of maternal health policy became universalizing institutional deliveries and phasing-out of Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs) from the health system. There were many solutions proposed by policy communities other than universalizing of institutional deliveries, including training of TBAs and improving socio-economic conditions of pregnant women. However, Government of India favored medical community, which was advocating for the policy of universalizing institutional delivery, and neglected the solutions proposed by other policy communities. It took almost 15 years for the advocates of institutional delivery to transform their proposed solution into a program - the Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), a safe-motherhood program promoting institutional delivery through cash incentives to pregnant women. Thus, the case of safe motherhood policy in India is worth studying to understand how certain issues/problems gain political attention and how advocacy work in policy circles. This paper attempts to understand the factors that favored the agenda of safe-motherhood in the policy circle in India, using John Kingdon’s Multiple-Stream model of agenda-setting. Through document analysis and literature review, the paper traces the evolution of safe motherhood program and maternal health policy. The study has used open source documents available on the website of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, media reports (Times of India Archive) and related research papers. The documents analyzed include National health policy-1983, National Health Policy-2002, written reports of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Department, National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) document, documents related to Janani Suraksha Yojana and research articles related to maternal health programme in India. The study finds that focusing events and credible indicators coupled with media attention has the potential to recognize a problem. The political elites favor clearly defined and well-accepted solutions. The trans-national organizations affect the agenda-setting process in a country through conditional resource provision. The closely-knit policy communities and political entrepreneurship are required for advocating solutions high on agendas. The study has implications for health policy makers in identifying factors that have the potential to affect the agenda-setting process for a desired policy agenda and identify the challenges in generating political priorities.

Keywords: agenda-setting, focusing events, Kingdon’s model, safe motherhood program India

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Authors: Jen Wang, Wei-Chia Hsu, Zih-Sin Wang, Ching-Ping Chu, Bo-Shiou Guo

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In the late 19th century, the Jinguashi ore deposit in northern Taiwan was discovered, and accompanied with flourishing mining activities. However, tons of contaminants including heavy metals, sulfur dioxide, and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were released to surroundings and caused environmental problems. Site T was one of copper smelter located on the coastal hill near Jinguashi ore deposit. In over ten years of operation, variety contaminants were emitted that it polluted the surrounding soil and groundwater quality. In order to exhaust fumes produced from smelting process, three stacks were built along the hill behind the factory. The sediment inside the stacks contains high concentration of heavy metals such as arsenic, lead, copper, etc. Moreover, soil around the discarded stacks suffered a serious contamination when deposition leached from the ruptures of stacks. Consequently, Site T (including the factory and its surroundings) was declared as a pollution remediation site that visiting the site and land-use activities on it are forbidden. However, the natural landscape and cultural attractions of Site T are spectacular that it attracts a lot of visitors annually. Moreover, land resources are extremely precious in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) is actively promoting the contaminated land revitalization policy. Therefore, this study took Site T as case study for brownfield revitalization planning to the limits of activate and remediate the natural resources. Land-use suitability analysis and risk mapping were applied in this study to make appropriate risk management measures and redevelopment plan for the site. In land-use suitability analysis, surrounding factors into consideration such as environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land use, contamination, culture, and landscapes were collected to assess the development of each area; health risk mapping was introduced to show the image of risk assessments results based on the site contamination investigation. According to land-use suitability analysis, the site was divided into four zones: priority area (for high-efficiency development), secondary area (for co-development with priority area), conditional area (for reusing existing building) and limited area (for Eco-tourism and education). According to the investigation, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), heavy metals and TPH were considered as target contaminants while oral, inhalation and dermal would be the major exposure pathways in health risk assessment. In accordance with health risk map, the highest risk was found in the southwest and eastern side. Based on the results, the development plan focused on zoning and land use. Site T was recommended be divides to public facility zone, public architectonic art zone, viewing zone, existing building preservation zone, historic building zone, and cultural landscape zone for various purpose. In addition, risk management measures including sustained remediation, extinguish exposure and administration management are applied to ensure particular places are suitable for visiting and protect the visitors’ health. The consolidated results are corroborated available by analyzing aspects of law, land acquired method, maintenance and management and public participation. Therefore, this study has a certain reference value to promote the contaminated land revitalization policy in Taiwan.

Keywords: brownfield revitalization, land-use suitability analysis, health risk map, risk management

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