Search results for: behavior model simulation

Authors: Aulon Shabani, Denis Panxhi, Orion Zavalani

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This paper presents the modelling and development of a simulator for residential electrical appliances. The simulator is developed on MATLAB providing the possibility to analyze and simulate energy consumption of frequently used home appliances in Albania. Modelling of devices considers the impact of different factors, mentioning occupant behavior and climacteric conditions. Most devices are modeled as an electric circuit, and the electric energy consumption is estimated by the solutions of the guiding differential equations. The provided models refer to devices like a dishwasher, oven, water heater, air conditioners, light bulbs, television, refrigerator water, and pump. The proposed model allows us to simulate beforehand the energetic behavior of the largest consumption home devices to estimate peak consumption and improving its reduction. Simulated home prototype results are compared to real measurement of a considered typical home. Obtained results from simulator framework compared to monitored typical household using EmonTxV3 show the effectiveness of the proposed simulation. This conclusion will help for future simulation of a large group of typical household for a better understanding of peak consumption.

Keywords: electrical appliances, energy management, modelling, peak estimation, simulation, smart home

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Authors: Giulio Mangano, Alberto De Marco, Giovanni Zenezini

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The concept of City Logistics (CL) has emerged to improve the impacts of last mile freight distribution in urban areas. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model exploring the dynamics of the diffusion of a ICT platform for CL management across different populations is proposed. For the development of the model two sources have been used. On the one hand, the major diffusion variables and feedback loops are derived from a literature review of existing diffusion models. On the other hand, the parameters are represented by the value propositions delivered by the platform as a response to some of the users’ needs. To extract the most important value propositions the Business Model Canvas approach has been used. Such approach in fact focuses on understanding how a company can create value for her target customers. These variables and parameters are thus translated into a SD diffusion model with three different populations namely municipalities, logistics service providers, and own account carriers. Results show that, the three populations under analysis fully adopt the platform within the simulation time frame, highlighting a strong demand by different stakeholders for CL projects aiming at carrying out more efficient urban logistics operations.

Keywords: city logistics, simulation, system dynamics, business model

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Authors: Suyeb Ahmed Khan, Mahmood Mian

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Simulation plays an important role during all phases of the design and engineering of communications systems, from early stages of conceptual design through the various stages of implementation, testing, and fielding of the system. In the present paper, a simulation model has been constructed for the WCDMA system in order to evaluate the performance. This model describes multiusers effects and calculation of BER (Bit Error Rate) in 3G mobile systems using Simulink MATLAB 7.1. Gaussian Approximation defines the multi-user effect on system performance. BER has been analyzed with comparison between transmitting data and receiving data.

Keywords: WCDMA, simulations, BER, MATLAB

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Authors: M. Kamal M. Shah, Noorhifiantylaily Ahmad, O. Irma Wani, J. Sahari

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This paper presents the computationally mechanics analysis of energy absorption for cylindrical and square thin wall tubed structure by using ABAQUS/explicit. The crashworthiness behavior of AISI 1020 mild steel thin-walled tube under axial loading has been studied. The influence effects of different model’s cross-section, as well as model length on the crashworthiness behavior of thin-walled tube, are investigated. The model was placed on loading platform under axial loading with impact velocity of 5 m/s to obtain the deformation results of each model under quasi-static loading. The results showed that model undergoes different deformation mode exhibits different energy absorption performance.

Keywords: axial loading, computational mechanics, energy absorption performance, crashworthiness behavior, deformation mode

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Authors: Nadine Yehya, Chantal Maatouk

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Low energy buildings have been developed to achieve global climate commitments in reducing energy consumption. They comprise energy efficient buildings, zero energy buildings, positive buildings and passive house buildings. The reduced energy demands in Low Energy buildings call for advanced building energy modeling that focuses on studying active building systems such as heating, cooling and ventilation, improvement of systems performances, and development of control systems. Modeling and building simulation have expanded to cover different modeling approach i.e.: detailed physical model, dynamic empirical models, and hybrid approaches, which are adopted by various simulation tools. This paper uses DesignBuilder with EnergyPlus simulation engine in order to; First, study the impact of efficiency measures on building energy behavior by comparing Low energy residential model to a conventional one in Beirut-Lebanon. Second, choose the appropriate energy systems for the studied case characterized by an important cooling demand. Third, study dynamic modeling of Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) system in EnergyPlus that is chosen due to its advantages over other systems and its availability in the Lebanese market. Finally, simulation of different energy systems models with different modeling approaches is necessary to confront the different modeling approaches and to investigate the interaction between energy systems and building envelope that affects the total energy consumption of Low Energy buildings.

Keywords: physical model, variable refrigerant flow heat pump, dynamic modeling, EnergyPlus, the modeling approach

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Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene

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We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.

Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation

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Authors: Khadidja Rahmani, Nahla Bouaziz

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Algeria is known for its rich heritage. It owns an immense historical heritage with a universal reputation. Unfortunately, this wealth is withered because of abundance. This research focuses on the Ksourian model, which constitutes a large portion of this wealth. In fact, the Ksourian model is not just a witness to a great part of history or a vernacular culture, but also it includes a panoply of assets in terms of energetic efficiency. In this context, the purpose of our work is to evaluate the performance of the old techniques which are derived from the Ksourian model , and that using the simulation tools. The proposed method is decomposed in two steps; the first consists of isolate and reintroduce each device into a basic model, then run a simulation series on acquired models. And this in order to test the contribution of each of these dialectal processes. In another scale of development, the second step consists of aggregating all these processes in an aboriginal model, then we restart the simulation, to see what it will give this mosaic on the environmental and energetic plan .The model chosen for this study is one of the ksar units of Knadsa city of Bechar (Algeria). This study does not only show the ingenuity of our ancestors in their know-how, and their adapting power to the aridity of the climate, but also proves that their conceptions subscribe in the current concerns of energy efficiency, and respond to the requirements of sustainable development.

Keywords: dialectal processes, energy efficiency, evaluation, Ksourian model, simulation tools

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Authors: N. Massoum, B. Bouazza

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In this paper, we have developed a numerical simulation model to describe the electrical properties of GaInP MESFET with submicron gate (Lg = 0.5 µm). This model takes into account the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the load in the short channel and the law effect of mobility as a function of electric field. Simulation software based on a stochastic method such as Monte Carlo has been established. The results are discussed and compared with those of the experiment. The result suggests experimentally that, in a very small gate length in our devices (smaller than 40 nm), short-channel tunneling explains the degradation of transistor performance, which was previously enhanced by velocity overshoot.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, transient electron transport, MESFET device, simulation software

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Authors: Kirti Gosavi, Anita Bhole

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The paper demonstrates simulation and steady-state performance of three phase squirrel cage induction motor and detection of rotor broken bar fault using MATLAB. This simulation model is successfully used in the fault detection of rotor broken bar for the induction machines. A dynamic model using PWM inverter and mathematical modelling of the motor is developed. The dynamic simulation of the small power induction motor is one of the key steps in the validation of the design process of the motor drive system and it is needed for eliminating advertent design errors and the resulting error in the prototype construction and testing. The simulation model will be helpful in detecting the faults in three phase induction motor using Motor current signature analysis.

Keywords: squirrel cage induction motor, pulse width modulation (PWM), fault diagnosis, induction motor

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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In this paper, a one-dimensional (1d) Parallel Elasto- Plastic Model (PEPM), able to simulate the uniaxial dynamic behavior of seismic isolators having a continuously decreasing tangent stiffness with increasing displacement, is presented. The parallel modeling concept is applied to discretize the continuously decreasing tangent stiffness function, thus allowing to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolation bearings by putting linear elastic and nonlinear elastic-perfectly plastic elements in parallel. The mathematical model has been validated by comparing the experimental force-displacement hysteresis loops, obtained testing a helical wire rope isolator and a recycled rubber-fiber reinforced bearing, with those predicted numerically. Good agreement between the simulated and experimental results shows that the proposed model can be an effective numerical tool to predict the forcedisplacement relationship of seismic isolators within relatively large displacements. Compared to the widely used Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one allows to avoid the numerical solution of a first order ordinary nonlinear differential equation for each time step of a nonlinear time history analysis, thus reducing the computation effort, and requires the evaluation of only three model parameters from experimental tests, namely the initial tangent stiffness, the asymptotic tangent stiffness, and a parameter defining the transition from the initial to the asymptotic tangent stiffness.

Keywords: base isolation, earthquake engineering, parallel elasto-plastic model, seismic isolators, softening hysteresis loops

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Authors: Yawei Liang

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Threat from cruise missiles is among the most dangerous considerations to a warship in the modern era: anti-ship cruise missiles are fast, accurate, and extremely destructive. In this paper, the goal was to use an object-orientated environment to program a simulation to model a scenario in which a lone frigate is attacked by a wave of missiles fired at given intervals. The parameters of the simulation are modified to examine the relationships between different variables in the situation, and an analysis is performed on various aspects of the defending ship’s equipment. Finally, the results are presented, along with a brief discussion.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, naval resource management, weapon-target allocation/assignment

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Authors: Mounir Tichamakdj, Khaled Sandjak, Boualem Tiliouine

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The design of flexible pavements is currently carried out using a multilayer elastic theory. However, for thin-surface pavements subject to light or medium traffic volumes, the importance of the non-linear stress-strain behavior of unbound granular materials requires the use of more sophisticated numerical models for the structural design of these pavements. The simplified analysis of the nonlinear behavior of granular materials in pavement design will be developed in this study. To achieve this objective, an equivalent linear model derived from a volumetric shear stress model is used to simulate the nonlinear elastic behavior of two unlinked local granular materials often used in pavements. This model is included here to adequately incorporate material non-linearity due to stress dependence and stiffness of the granular layers in the flexible pavement analysis. The sensitivity of the pavement design criteria to the likely variations in asphalt layer thickness and the mineralogical nature of unbound granular materials commonly used in pavement structures are also evaluated.

Keywords: granular materials, linear equivalent model, non-linear behavior, pavement design, shear volumetric strain model

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

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Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

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In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

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Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

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The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT

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Authors: Bruce G. Wilson

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The collection of municipal solid waste at the curbside is a complex operation that is repeated daily under varying circumstances around the world. There have been several attempts to develop Monte Carlo simulation models of the waste collection process dating back almost 50 years. Despite this long history, the use of simulation modeling as a planning or optimization tool for waste collection is still extremely limited in practice. Historically, simulation modeling of waste collection systems has been hampered by the limitations of computer hardware and software and by the availability of representative input data. This paper outlines the development of a Monte Carlo simulation model that overcomes many of the limitations contained in previous models. The model uses a general purpose simulation software program that is easily capable of modeling an entire waste collection network. The model treats the stops on a waste collection route as a queue of work to be processed by a collection vehicle (or server). Input data can be collected from a variety of sources including municipal geographic information systems, global positioning system recorders on collection vehicles, and weigh scales at transfer stations or treatment facilities. The result is a flexible model that is sufficiently robust that it can model the collection activities in a large municipality, while providing the flexibility to adapt to changing conditions on the collection route.

Keywords: modeling, queues, residential waste collection, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Hamad M. Alhajeri

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Swirling chamber is a promising cooling method for heavily thermally loaded parts like turbine blades due to the additional circumferential velocity and therefore improved turbulent mixing of the fluid. This paper investigates numerically the effect of turbulence model on the heat convection of the swirling chamber. Grid independence analysis is conducted to obtain the proper grid dimension. The work validated with experimental data available in the literature. Flow analysis using improved delayed detached eddy simulation turbulence model and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes k-ɛ turbulence model is carried. The flow characteristic near the exit is reformed when improved delayed detached eddy simulation model used.

Keywords: gas turbine, Nusselt number, flow characteristics, heat transfer

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Authors: V. Pizarro-Carmona, S. Castano-Solis, M. Cortés-Carmona, J. Fraile-Ardanuy, D. Jimenez-Bermejo

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The purpose of this article is to optimize the Equivalent Electric Circuit Model (EECM) of different orders to obtain greater precision in the modeling of Li-ion battery packs. Optimization includes considering circuits based on 1RC, 2RC and 3RC networks, with a dependent voltage source and a series resistor. The parameters are obtained experimentally using tests in the time domain and in the frequency domain. Due to the high non-linearity of the behavior of the battery pack, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve and optimize the parameters of each EECM considered (1RC, 2RC and 3RC). The objective of the estimation is to minimize the mean square error between the measured impedance in the real battery pack and those generated by the simulation of different proposed circuit models. The results have been verified by comparing the Nyquist graphs of the estimation of the complex impedance of the pack. As a result of the optimization, the 2RC and 3RC circuit alternatives are considered as viable to represent the battery behavior. These battery pack models are experimentally validated using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation platform that reproduces the well-known New York City cycle (NYCC) and Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycles for electric vehicles. The results show that using GA optimization allows obtaining EECs with 2RC or 3RC networks, with high precision to represent the dynamic behavior of a battery pack in vehicular applications.

Keywords: Li-ion battery packs modeling optimized, EECM, GA, electric vehicle applications

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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The safety test of deploying intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) on the road network is a critical challenge. Road traffic network simulation can be used to test the functionality of ICVs, which is not only time-saving and less energy-consuming but also can create scenarios with car collisions. However, the relationship between different human driver behaviors and the car-collision occurrences has been not understood clearly; meanwhile, the procedure of car-collisions generation in the traffic numerical simulators is not fully integrated. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify specific driver profiles from real driven data; then, we replicate them in numerical traffic simulations with the purpose of generating inter-vehicular collisions. We proposed three profiles: (i) 'aggressive': short time-headway, (ii) 'inattentive': long reaction time, and (iii) 'normal' with intermediate values of reaction time and time-headway. These three driver profiles are extracted from the NGSIM dataset and simulated using the intelligent driver model (IDM), with an extension of reaction time. At last, the generation of inter-vehicular collisions is performed by varying the percentages of different profiles.

Keywords: vehicular collisions, human driving behavior, traffic modeling, car-following models, microscopic traffic simulation

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Authors: F. Clara Fang, Hernan Castaneda

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The Connecticut Department of Transportation (ConnDOT) has constructed four roundabouts in the State of Connecticut within the past ten years. VISSIM traffic simulation software was utilized to analyze these roundabouts during their design phase. The queue length and level of service observed in the field appear to be better than predicted by the VISSIM model. The objectives of this project are to: identify VISSIM input variables most critical to accurate modeling; recommend VISSIM calibration factors; and, provide other recommendations for roundabout traffic operations modeling. Traffic data were collected at these roundabouts using Miovision Technologies. Cameras were set up to capture vehicle circulating activity and entry behavior for two weekdays. A large sample size of filed data was analyzed to achieve accurate and statistically significant results. The data extracted from the videos include: vehicle circulating speed; critical gap estimated by Maximum Likelihood Method; peak hour volume; follow-up headway; travel time; and, vehicle queue length. A VISSIM simulation of existing roundabouts was built to compare both queue length and travel time predicted from simulation with measured in the field. The research investigated a variety of simulation parameters as calibration factors for describing driver behaviors at roundabouts. Among them, critical gap is the most effective calibration variable in roundabout simulation. It has a significant impact to queue length, particularly when the volume is higher. The results will improve the design of future roundabouts in Connecticut and provide decision makers with insights on the relationship between various choices and future performance.

Keywords: driver critical gap, roundabout analysis, simulation, VISSIM modeling

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: Changgil Lee, Seunghee Park

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Although vehicle driving test for the development of BWIM system is necessary, but it needs much cost and time in addition application of various driving condition. Thus, we need the numerical-simulation method resolving the cost and time problems of vehicle driving test and the way of measuring response of bridge according to the various driving condition. Using the precision analysis model reflecting the dynamic characteristic is contributed to increase accuracy in numerical simulation. In this paper, we conduct a numerical simulation to apply precision analysis model, which reflects the dynamic characteristic of bridge using Bridge Weigh-in-Motion technique and suggest overload vehicle enforcement technology using precision analysis model.

Keywords: bridge weigh-in-motion(BWIM) system, precision analysis model, dynamic characteristic of bridge, numerical simulation

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Authors: Abderrahmane Soufi

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The building sector is the largest consumer of energy in France, accounting for 44% of French consumption. To reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, France implemented an energy transition law targeting 40% energy savings by 2030 in the tertiary building sector. Building simulation tools are used to predict the energy performance of buildings but the reliability of these tools is hampered by discrepancies between the real and simulated energy performance of a building. This performance gap lies in the simplified assumptions of certain factors, such as the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating, which is considered deterministic when setting a fixed operating schedule and a fixed interior comfort temperature. However, the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating is stochastic, diverse, and complex because it can be affected by many factors. Probabilistic models are an alternative to deterministic models. These models are usually derived from statistical data and express occupant behavior by assuming a probabilistic relationship to one or more variables. In the literature, logistic regression has been used to model the behavior of occupants with regard to heating and air conditioning systems by considering univariate logistic models in residential buildings; however, few studies have developed multivariate models for higher education and vocational training buildings in a Mediterranean climate. Therefore, in this study, occupant behavior on heating and air conditioning systems was modeled using logistic regression. Occupant behavior related to the turn-on heating and air conditioning systems was studied through experimental measurements collected over a period of one year (June 2023–June 2024) in three classrooms occupied by several groups of students in engineering schools and professional training. Instrumentation was provided to collect indoor temperature and indoor relative humidity in 10-min intervals. Furthermore, the state of the heating/air conditioning system (off or on) and the set point were determined. The outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were collected as weather data. The number of occupants, age, and sex were also considered. Logistic regression was used for modeling an occupant turning on the heating and air conditioning systems. The results yielded a proposed model that can be used in building simulation tools to predict the energy performance of teaching buildings. Based on the first months (summer and early autumn) of the investigations, the results illustrate that the occupant behavior of the air conditioning systems is affected by the indoor relative humidity and temperature in June, July, and August and by the indoor relative humidity, temperature, and number of occupants in September and October. Occupant behavior was analyzed monthly, and univariate and multivariate models were developed.

Keywords: occupant behavior, logistic regression, behavior model, mediterranean climate, air conditioning, heating

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Authors: Donatello Cardone

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Bilinear hysteresis models are usually used to describe the cyclic behavior of high damping rubber bearings. However, they neglect a number of phenomena (such as the interaction between axial load and shear force, buckling and post-buckling behavior, cavitation, scragging effects, etc.) that can significantly influence the dynamic behavior of such isolation devices. In this work, an advanced hysteresis model is examined and properly calibrated using consolidated procedures. Results of preliminary numerical analyses, performed in OpenSees, are shown and compared with the results of experimental tests on high damping rubber bearings and simulation analyses using alternative nonlinear models. The findings of this study can provide an useful tool for the accurate evaluation of the seismic response of structures with rubber-based isolation systems.

Keywords: seismic isolation, high damping rubber bearings, numerical modeling, axial-shear force interaction

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Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

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This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: A. Zanj, F. He

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In the current paper, a domain independent conduction model compatible for multi-physical system dynamic investigations is suggested. By means of a port-based approach, a classical nonlinear conduction model containing physical states is first represented. A compatible discrete configuration of the thermal domain in line with the elastic domain is then generated through the enhancement of the configuration of the conventional thermal element. The presented simulation results of a sample structure indicate that the suggested conductive model can cover a wide range of dynamic behavior of the thermal domain.

Keywords: multi-physical domain, conduction model, port based modeling, dynamic interaction, physical modeling

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Authors: Vincent Iacobellis, Kamran Behdinan

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A finite element cohesive zone model is used to predict the temperature dependent material properties of a polyimide matrix composite with unidirectional carbon fiber arrangement. The cohesive zone parameters have been obtained from previous research involving an atomistic-to-continuum multiscale simulation of the fiber-matrix interface using the bridging cell multiscale method. The goal of the research was to both investigate the effect of temperature change on the composite behavior with respect to transverse loading as well as the validate the use of cohesive parameters obtained from atomistic-to-continuum multiscale modeling to predict fiber-matrix interfacial cracking. From the multiscale model cohesive zone parameters (i.e. maximum traction and energy of separation) were obtained by modeling the interface between the coarse-grained polyimide matrix and graphite based carbon fiber. The cohesive parameters from this simulation were used in a cohesive zone model of the composite microstructure in order to predict the properties of the macroscale composite with respect to changes in temperature ranging from 21 ˚C to 316 ˚C. Good agreement was found between the microscale RUC model and experimental results for stress-strain response, stiffness, and material strength at low and high temperatures. Examination of the deformation of the composite through localized crack initiation at the fiber-matrix interface also agreed with experimental observations of similar phenomena. Overall, the cohesive zone model was shown to be both effective at modeling the composite properties with respect to transverse loading as well as validated the use of cohesive zone parameters obtained from the multiscale simulation.

Keywords: cohesive zone model, fiber-matrix interface, microscale damage, multiscale modeling

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Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption, in Romania. Both techno-economic and consumer behavior approaches have been considered, in order to develop the model. The proposed model aims to reduce the energy consumption, in households, by assembling in a unitary model, aspects concerning: residential lighting, space heating, hot water, and combined space heating – hot water, space cooling, and passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating domestic energy consumption model, and quantify not only technical-economic issues, but also consumer behavior impact, related to people decision to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: consumer behavior, open source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model, virtual technologies

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Authors: Yanqin Chen, Chao Jiang, Chongdu Cho

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This research presents the three-dimensional mechanical characteristics of a commercial gas diffusion layer by experiment and simulation results. Although the mechanical performance of gas diffusion layers has attracted much attention, its reliability and accuracy are still a major challenge. With the help of simulation analysis methods, it is beneficial to the gas diffusion layer’s extensive commercial development and the overall stress analysis of proton electrolyte membrane fuel cells during its pre-production design period. Therefore, in this paper, a three-dimensional constitutive model of a commercial gas diffusion layer, including its material stiffness matrix parameters, is developed and coded, in the user-defined material model of a commercial finite element method software for simulation. Then, the model is validated by comparing experimental results as well as simulation outcomes. As a result, both the experimental data and simulation results show a good agreement with each other, with high accuracy.

Keywords: gas diffusion layer, proton electrolyte membrane fuel cell, stiffness matrix, three-dimensional mechanical characteristics, user-defined material model

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