Search results for: Penalized Quasi Likelihood

Authors: Mahmut Yildirim

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This paper proposed the bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network-aided deep learning (DL)-based signal detection for Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing with all index modulation (OFDM-AIM), namely Bi-DeepAIM. OFDM-AIM is developed to increase the spectral efficiency of OFDM with index modulation (OFDM-IM), a promising multi-carrier technique for communication systems beyond 5G. In this paper, due to its strong classification ability, Bi-LSTM is considered an alternative to the maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm, which is used for signal detection in the classical OFDM-AIM scheme. The performance of the Bi-DeepAIM is compared with LSTM network-aided DL-based OFDM-AIM (DeepAIM) and classic OFDM-AIM that uses (ML)-based signal detection via BER performance and computational time criteria. Simulation results show that Bi-DeepAIM obtains better bit error rate (BER) performance than DeepAIM and lower computation time in signal detection than ML-AIM.

Keywords: bidirectional long short-term memory, deep learning, maximum likelihood, OFDM with all index modulation, signal detection

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Authors: Solomon Huluka, Akrum Abdul-Latif, Rachid Baleh

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Metal foams have been developed intensively as a new class of materials for the last two decades due to their unique structural and multifunctional properties. The aim of this experimental work was to characterize the effect of biaxial loading complexity (combined compression-torsion) on the plastic response of highly uniform architecture open-cell aluminum foams of spherical porous with a density of 80%. For foam manufacturing, the Kelvin cells model was used to generate the generally spherical shape with a cell diameter of 11 mm. A patented rig called ACTP (Absorption par Compression-Torsion Plastique), was used to investigate the foam response under quasi-static complex loading paths having different torsional components (i.e. 0°, 45° and 60°). The key mechanical responses to be examined are yield stress, stress plateau, and energy absorption capacity. The collapse mode was also investigated. It was concluded that the higher the loading complexity, the greater the yield strength and the greater energy absorption capacity of the foam. Experimentally, it was also noticed that there were large softening effects that occurred after the first pick stress for both biaxial-45° and biaxial-60° loading.

Keywords: aluminum foam, loading complexity, characterization, biaxial loading

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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Authors: Kyung-Jin You, Kiwon Rhee, Marc H. Schieber, Nitish V. Thakor, Hyun-Chool Shin

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It remains unknown whether M1 neurons encode multi-finger movements independently or as a certain neural network of single finger movements although multi-finger movements are physically a combination of single finger movements. We present an evidence of correlation between single and multi-finger movements and also attempt a challenging task of semi-blind decoding of neural data with minimum training of the neural decoder. Data were collected from 115 task-related neurons in M1 of a trained rhesus monkey performing flexion and extension of each finger and the wrist (12 single and 6 two-finger-movements). By exploiting correlation of temporal firing pattern between movements, we found that correlation coefficient for physically related movements pairs is greater than others; neurons tuned to single finger movements increased their firing rate when multi-finger commands were instructed. According to this knowledge, neural semi-blind decoding is done by choosing the greatest and the second greatest likelihood for canonical candidates. We achieved a decoding accuracy about 60% for multiple finger movement without corresponding training data set. this results suggest that only with the neural activities on single finger movements can be exploited to control dexterous multi-fingered neuroprosthetics.

Keywords: finger movement, neural activity, blind decoding, M1

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Authors: Mohamed Khalifa Zayet, Salma Belal Eiid, Mushira Mohamed Dahaba

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Introduction: Malignant tumors may not be easily detected by traditional radiographic techniques especially in an anatomically complex area like maxillofacial region. At the same time, the advent of biological functional MRI was a significant footstep in the diagnostic imaging field. Objective: The purpose of this study was to define the malignant metabolic profile of maxillofacial lesions using diffusion MRI and magnetic resonance spectroscopy, as adjunctive aids for diagnosing of such lesions. Subjects and Methods: Twenty-one patients with twenty-two lesions were enrolled in this study. Both morphological and functional MRI scans were performed, where T1, T2 weighted images, diffusion-weighted MRI with four apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps were constructed for analysis, and magnetic resonance spectroscopy with qualitative and semi-quantitative analyses of choline and lactate peaks were applied. Then, all patients underwent incisional or excisional biopsies within two weeks from MR scans. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that not all the parameters had the same diagnostic performance, where lactate had the highest areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.9 and choline was the lowest with insignificant diagnostic value. The best cut-off value suggested for lactate was 0.125, where any lesion above this value is supposed to be malignant with 90 % sensitivity and 83.3 % specificity. Despite that ADC maps had comparable AUCs still, the statistical measure that had the final say was the interpretation of likelihood ratio. As expected, lactate again showed the best combination of positive and negative likelihood ratios, whereas for the maps, ADC map with 500 and 1000 b-values showed the best realistic combination of likelihood ratios, however, with lower sensitivity and specificity than lactate. Conclusion: Diffusion weighted imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy are state-of-art in the diagnostic arena and they manifested themselves as key players in the differentiation process of orofacial tumors. The complete biological profile of malignancy can be decoded as low ADC values, high choline and/or high lactate, whereas that of benign entities can be translated as high ADC values, low choline and no lactate.

Keywords: diffusion magnetic resonance imaging, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, malignant tumors, maxillofacial

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Authors: Radhika V., J. M. Chandra Kishen

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The theory of critical distances (TCD), due to its appealing characteristics, has been successfully used in the past to predict the strength of brittle as well as ductile materials, weakened by the presence of stress risers under both static and fatigue loading. By utilising most of the TCD's unique features, this paper summarises an attempt for a reformulation of the point method of the TCD to predict the strength of notched plain concrete beams under mode I quasi-static loading. A zone of micro cracks, which is responsible for the non-linearity of concrete, is taken into account considering the concept of an effective elastic crack. An attempt is also made to correlate the value of the material characteristic length required for the application of TCD with the maximum aggregate size in the concrete mix, eliminating the need for any extensive experimentation prior to the application of TCD. The devised reformulation and the proposed power law based relationship is found to yield satisfactory predictions for static strength of notched plain concrete beams, with geometric dimensions of the beam, tensile strength, and maximum aggregate size of the concrete mix being the only needed input parameters.

Keywords: characteristic length, effective elastic crack, inherent material strength, modeI loading, theory of critical distances

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Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

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The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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Authors: Anton G. Akulichev, Avinash Tiwari, Ben Alcock, Andreas Echtermeyer

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Low temperatures are known to pose a major threat for polymers; many are prone to excessive stiffness or even brittleness. There is a technology gap between the properties of existing elastomeric sealing materials and the properties needed for service in extremely cold regions. Moreover, some aspects of low temperature behaviour of rubber are not thoroughly studied and understood. The paper presents results of laboratory testing of a conventional oilfield HNBR (hydrogenated nitrile butadiene rubber) elastomer at low climatic temperatures above and below its glass transition point, as well as the performance of some filled HNBR formulations. Particular emphasis in the experiments is put on rubber viscoelastic characteristics studied by Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) and quasi-static mechanical testing results at low temperatures. As demonstrated by the stress relaxation and DMA experiments the transition region near Tg of the studied compound has the most striking features, like rapid stress relaxation, as compared to the glassy and rubbery plateau. In addition the quasi-static experiments show that molecular movement below Tg is not completely frozen, but rather evident and manifested in a certain stress decay as well. The effect of temperature and filler additions on typical mechanical and other properties of the materials is also discussed.

Keywords: characterization, filled elastomers, HNBR, low temperature

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Authors: Jia-Ming Kok, Javaan Chahl

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An optimisation method using both global and local optimisation is implemented to determine the flapping profile which will produce the most lift for an experimental wing-actuation system. The optimisation method is tested using a numerical quasi-steady analysis. Results of an optimised flapping profile show a 20% increase in lift generated as compared to flapping profiles obtained by high speed cinematography of a Sympetrum frequens dragonfly. Initial optimisation procedures showed 3166 objective function evaluations. The global optimisation parameters - initial sample size and stage one sample size, were altered to reduce the number of function evaluations. Altering the stage one sample size had no significant effect. It was found that reducing the initial sample size to 400 would allow a reduction in computational effort to approximately 1500 function evaluations without compromising the global solvers ability to locate potential minima. To further reduce the optimisation effort required, we increase the local solver’s convergence tolerance criterion. An increase in the tolerance from 0.02N to 0.05N decreased the number of function evaluations by another 20%. However, this potentially reduces the maximum obtainable lift by up to 0.025N.

Keywords: flapping wing, optimisation, quasi-steady model, dragonfly

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Authors: Ghada Shahrour, Nusiebeh Ananbh, Heyam Dalky, Mohammad Rababa, Fatmeh Alzoubi

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Positive teacher-student relationship has been found to affect students’ attitudes towards bullying and, in turn, their engagement in bullying behavior. However, no investigation has been conducted to explore whether teacher-student relationship affects teachers’ attitudes towards bullying. The aim of this study was to examine the role of teacher-student relationship on teachers’ attitudes towards bullying in terms of bullying seriousness, empathic responding, and likelihood to intervene in bullying situation. A cross-sectional, descriptive design was employed among a convenience sample of 173 school teachers (50.9% female) of 12 to 17-year-old students. The teachers were recruited from secondary public schools of three governorates in the Northern district of Jordan. Each group of students has multiple teachers for different subjects. Results showed that teacher-student relationship is partially related to teachers’ attitudes towards bullying. More specifically, having a close teacher-student relationship significantly increased teachers’ perception of bullying seriousness and empathy but not the likelihood to intervene. Research is needed to examine teachers’ obstacles for not providing bullying interventions, as the barriers may be culturally contextualized. Meanwhile, interventions that promote quality teacher-student relationship are necessary to increase teachers’ perception of bullying seriousness and empathy. Students have been found to adopt the values of their teachers, and this may deter them from engaging in bullying behavior.

Keywords: school bullying, teachers’ attitudes, teacher-student relationship, adolescent students

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Authors: Xin Tong, Jin-sheng Xu, Xiong Chen, Ya Zheng

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The aim of this paper is to study the mechanical properties of HTPB (Hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene) composite propellant under harsh conditions. It describes two tests involving uniaxial tensile tests of various strain rates (ranging from 0.0005 s^-1 to 1.5 s^-1), temperatures (ranging from 223 K to 343 K) and high-cycle fatigue tests under low-temperature (223 K, frequencies were set at 50, 100, 150 Hz) using DMA (Dynamic Mechanical Analyzer). To highlight the effect of small pre-strain on fatigue properties of HTPB propellant, quasi-static stretching was carried out before fatigue loading, and uniaxial tensile tests at constant strain rates were successively applied. The results reveal that flow stress of propellant increases with reduction in temperature and rise in strain rate, and the strain rate-temperature equivalence relationship could be described by TTSP (time-temperature superposition principle) incorporating a modified WLF equation. Moreover, the rate of performance degradations and damage accumulation of propellant during fatigue tests increased with increasing strain amplitude and loading frequencies, while initial quasi-static loading has a negative effect on fatigue properties by comparing stress-strain relations after fatigue tests.

Keywords: fatigue, HTPB propellant, tensile properties, time-temperature superposition principle

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Authors: Jayanta Pokharel, Gokarna Aryal, Netra Kanaal, Chris Tsokos

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Investment in stocks and shares aims to seek potential gains while weighing the risk of future needs, such as retirement, children's education etc. Analysis of the behavior of the stock market returns and making prediction is important for investors to mitigate risk on investment. Historically, the normal variance models have been used to describe the behavior of stock market returns. However, the returns of the financial assets are actually skewed with higher kurtosis, heavier tails, and a higher center than the normal distribution. The Laplace distribution and its family are natural candidates for modeling stock returns. The Variance-Gamma (VG) distribution is the most sought-after distributions for modeling asset returns and has been extensively discussed in financial literatures. In this paper, it explore the other Laplace family, such as Asymmetric Laplace, Skewed Laplace, Kumaraswamy Laplace (KS) together with Variance-Gamma to model the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index and it's eleven business sector indices. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the parameters of the distributions and our empirical inquiry shows that the Kumaraswamy Laplace distribution performs much better for stock returns modeling among the choice of distributions used in this study and in practice, KS can be used as a strong alternative to VG distribution.

Keywords: stock returns, variance-gamma, kumaraswamy laplace, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Hailemariam Gebremichael Gebretsadik, Abrham Hagos Tesfaslasea

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To satisfy the high need for ICT entrepreneurship and rectify the weak entrepreneurial culture in Ethiopia, the country has established ICT Business incubation centers with the intention of preventing business failures, promoting innovation, and accelerating the growth and success of firms. This study investigates the role of business incubators and social capital on the innovation and growth of firms in Ethiopia. In this research, innovation and growth of firms were considered as dependent variables, whereas business incubation and social capital were treated as independent variables. The researcher employed an e-mail survey among 137 tenant Firms (Firms that joined and/or graduated to/from the Business incubation centers available in Ethiopia) to collect the data and obtained 113 responses that were appropriate for this research. The result of this study reveals that the dimensions of business incubation (physical resource, business support, and networking) have a significant effect on the innovation of Firms, but these dimensions of business incubation do not show a significant effect on the growth of firms. On the other hand, the dimensions of social capital (structural, cognitive, and relational) show a significant positive impact on the likelihood of Firms' growth but not on the innovation of firms. Moreover, the result of this study indicates that the dimensions of business incubation and social capital together have a significant effect on the likelihood of tenant firms innovating and growing.

Keywords: business incubation, innovation, social capital, tenant firms

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: confidence interval, handwriting, kernel density estimator, KDE, logistic regression LoR, repeatability, reproducibility

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Authors: Yeonjeong Lee, Kyoung-jae Kim, Youngtae Kim

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This study proposes a novel recommender system that uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user’s preference. The proposed model consists of two steps. In the first step, this study uses logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. Then, this study combines the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. In the second step, this study uses the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. Finally, the system selects customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group and recommends proper products from same or different product groups to them through above two steps. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

Keywords: product recommender system, ensemble technique, association rules, decision tree, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

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Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

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Authors: Preeti Tiwari, Jay Wood, Duncan Babbage

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Family planning plays a role in saving lives across the globe by preventing unwanted pregnancies. The purpose of this multidisciplinary research was to determine the impact of mHealth tools have on psychosocial determinants of behaviour for family planning. The present study examines a topic that is very relevant in times where human-technology interaction is at its peak. It is probably one of the first studies that have investigated the impact of mobile phone technology on the underlying mechanisms of behaviour change for family planning using primary data. To examine the association between exposure to mHealth tools and predictors of behaviour, data was collected from mHealth intervention areas in India. A post-intervention quasi-experimental study with a 2x2 factorial design was conducted among 831 men and women from the state of Bihar. The quantitative data analysis evaluated the extent of influence that predictors of behaviour (beliefs, social norms, perceived behaviour control, and outcome behaviour) have on a woman’s decisions about family planning. The results indicated an association between exposure to mHealth tools and improved communication about family planning among various family members after receiving health information from a health worker (H1). A relationship between exposure to mHealth tools and increased support women received from their husbands and extended family (mothers-in-law specifically) and peers (H2) was also found. A further result showed that knowledge about family planning was greater among users of family planning (H4). mHealth tools empower women to communicate with family members. This has important implications for developing mobile phone-based tools, as they can be used as a crucial communication channel that can be an effective method of increasing communication among family members about contraceptives. Thus, it can be implied that where women feel nervous talking about contraception, the successful application of mHealth tools can strengthen the interactivity of the health communication and could increase the likelihood of using contraception. However, while it may improve health communication that can inform health decisions, it may be insufficient on its own to cause behaviour change.

Keywords: contraceptive, e-health, psycho-social, women

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Authors: Kang-Mo Jung

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The use of regularization for statistical methods has become popular. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) framework has become the standard tool for sparse regression. However, it is well known that the LASSO is sensitive to outliers or leverage points. We consider a new robust estimation which is composed of the weighted loss function of the pairwise difference of residuals and the adaptive penalty function regulating the tuning parameter for each variable. Rank regression is resistant to regression outliers, but not to leverage points. By adopting a weighted loss function, the proposed method is robust to leverage points of the predictor variable. Furthermore, the adaptive penalty function gives us good statistical properties in variable selection such as oracle property and consistency. We develop an efficient algorithm to compute the proposed estimator using basic functions in program R. We used an optimal tuning parameter based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Numerical simulation shows that the proposed estimator is effective for analyzing real data set and contaminated data.

Keywords: adaptive penalty function, robust penalized regression, variable selection, weighted rank regression

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Authors: Neda Orak, Mostafa Zarei

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Environmental assessment is an important session in environment management. Since various methods and techniques have been produces and implemented. Remote sensing (RS) is widely used in many scientific and research fields such as geology, cartography, geography, agriculture, forestry, land use planning, environment, etc. It can show earth surface objects cyclical changes. Also, it can show earth phenomena limits on basis of electromagnetic reflectance changes and deviations records. The research has been done on mangrove forests assessment by RS techniques. Mangrove forests quantitative analysis in Basatin and Bidkhoon estuaries was the aim of this research. It has been done by Landsat satellite images from 1975- 2013 and match to ground control points. This part of mangroves are the last distribution in northern hemisphere. It can provide a good background to improve better management on this important ecosystem. Landsat has provided valuable images to earth changes detection to researchers. This research has used MSS, TM, +ETM, OLI sensors from 1975, 1990, 2000, 2003-2013. Changes had been studied after essential corrections such as fix errors, bands combination, georeferencing on 2012 images as basic image, by maximum likelihood and IPVI Index. It was done by supervised classification. 2004 google earth image and ground points by GPS (2010-2012) was used to compare satellite images obtained changes. Results showed mangrove area in bidkhoon was 1119072 m2 by GPS and 1231200 m2 by maximum likelihood supervised classification and 1317600 m2 by IPVI in 2012. Basatin areas is respectively: 466644 m2, 88200 m2, 63000 m2. Final results show forests have been declined naturally. It is due to human activities in Basatin. The defect was offset by planting in many years. Although the trend has been declining in recent years again. So, it mentioned satellite images have high ability to estimation all environmental processes. This research showed high correlation between images and indexes such as IPVI and NDVI with ground control points.

Keywords: IPVI index, Landsat sensor, maximum likelihood supervised classification, Nayband National Park

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Authors: N. J. Nawarathna, N. R. Kmarasinghe, D. Chandrasekara, B. M. R. S. Balasooriya, R. A. A. Shaminda, R. J. K. Senevirathne

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Introduction: Thyroid malignancy associated with hyperthyroidism is considered rare. Retrospective studies have shown the incidence of thyroid malignancy in hyperthyroid patients to be low (0.7-8.5%). To assess the clinical relevance of this association, thyroid status in a cohort of patients with thyroid malignancy were analyzed. Method: Thyroid malignancies diagnosed histologically in 56 patients, over a 18 month period beginning from April 2013, in a single surgical unit at Teaching Hospital Kandy were included. Preoperative patient details and progression of thyroid status were asessed with Thyroid Stimulating Hormone, free Thyroxin and free Triiodothyronine levels. Results: Amongst 56 patients Papillary carcinoma was diagnosed in 44(78.6%), follicular carcinomas in 7(12.5%) and 5(8.9%) with medullary and anaplastic carcinomas. 12(21.4%) were males and 44(78.6%) were females. 20(35.7%) were less than 40years, 29(51.8%) were between 40 to 59years and 7(12.5%) were above 59years. Cross tabulation of Type of carcinoma with Gender revealed likelihood ratio of 6.908, Significance p = 0.032. Biochemically 12(21.4%) were hyperthyroid. Out of them 5(41.7%) had primary hyperthyroidism and 7(58.3%) had secondary hyperthyroidism. Mean age of euthyroid patients was 43.77years (SD 10.574) and hyperthyroid patients was 53.25years(SD 16.057). Independent Samples Test t is -2.446, two tailed significance p =0.018. When cross tabulate thyroid status with Age group Likelihood Ratio was 9.640, Significance p = 0.008. Conclusion: Papillary carcinoma is seen more among females. Among the patients with thyroid carcinomas, those with biochemically proven hyperthyroidism were more among the older age group than those who were euthyroid. Hence careful evaluation of elderly hyperthyroid patients to select the most suitable therapeutic approach is justified.

Keywords: age, hyperthyroidism, thyroid malignancy, thyroid status

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Authors: Syed Masood Hussain

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An effective control method, including system-level control and pulse width modulation for quasi-Z-source cascade multilevel inverter (qZS-CMI) based grid-tie photovoltaic (PV) power system is proposed. The system-level control achieves the grid-tie current injection, independent maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for separate PV panels, and dc-link voltage balance for all quasi-Z-source H-bridge inverter (qZS-HBI) modules. A recent upsurge in the study of photovoltaic (PV) power generation emerges, since they directly convert the solar radiation into electric power without hampering the environment. However, the stochastic fluctuation of solar power is inconsistent with the desired stable power injected to the grid, owing to variations of solar irradiation and temperature. To fully exploit the solar energy, extracting the PV panels’ maximum power and feeding them into grids at unity power factor become the most important. The contributions have been made by the cascade multilevel inverter (CMI). Nevertheless, the H-bridge inverter (HBI) module lacks boost function so that the inverter KVA rating requirement has to be increased twice with a PV voltage range of 1:2; and the different PV panel output voltages result in imbalanced dc-link voltages. However, each HBI module is a two-stage inverter, and many extra dc–dc converters not only increase the complexity of the power circuit and control and the system cost, but also decrease the efficiency. Recently, the Z-source/quasi-Z-source cascade multilevel inverter (ZS/qZS-CMI)-based PV systems were proposed. They possess the advantages of both traditional CMI and Z-source topologies. In order to properly operate the ZS/qZS-CMI, the power injection, independent control of dc-link voltages, and the pulse width modulation (PWM) are necessary. The main contributions of this paper include: 1) a novel multilevel space vector modulation (SVM) technique for the single phase qZS-CMI is proposed, which is implemented without additional resources; 2) a grid-connected control for the qZS-CMI based PV system is proposed, where the all PV panel voltage references from their independent MPPTs are used to control the grid-tie current; the dual-loop dc-link peak voltage control.

Keywords: Quzi-Z source inverter, Photo voltaic power system, space vector modulation, cascade multilevel inverter

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Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

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The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Lauren M. McKinnon, Justin B. Miller, Michael F. Whiting, John S. K. Kauwe, Perry G. Ridge

Abstract:

Background: Ramp sequences increase translational speed and accuracy when rare, slowly-translated codons are found at the beginnings of genes. Here, the results of the first analysis of ramp sequences in a phylogenetic construct are presented. Methods: Ramp sequences were compared from 211 vertebrates (110 Mammalian and 101 non-mammalian). The presence and absence of ramp sequences were analyzed as a binary character in a parsimony and maximum likelihood framework. Additionally, ramp sequences were mapped to the Open Tree of Life taxonomy to determine the number of parallelisms and reversals that occurred, and these results were compared to what would be expected due to random chance. Lastly, aligned nucleotides in ramp sequences were compared to the rest of the sequence in order to examine possible differences in phylogenetic signal between these regions of the gene. Results: Parsimony and maximum likelihood analyses of the presence/absence of ramp sequences recovered phylogenies that are highly congruent with established phylogenies. Additionally, the retention index of ramp sequences is significantly higher than would be expected due to random chance (p-value = 0). A chi-square analysis of completely orthologous ramp sequences resulted in a p-value of approximately zero as compared to random chance. Discussion: Ramp sequences recover comparable phylogenies as other phylogenomic methods. Although not all ramp sequences appear to have a phylogenetic signal, more ramp sequences track speciation than expected by random chance. Therefore, ramp sequences may be used in conjunction with other phylogenomic approaches.

Keywords: codon usage bias, phylogenetics, phylogenomics, ramp sequence

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Authors: Desta Brhanu Gebrehiwot

Abstract:

The study aims to investigate the impact of land tenure arrangements on fertilizer use per hectare in Northern Ethiopia. Household and Plot level data are used for analysis. Land tenure contracts such as sharecropping and fixed rent arrangements have endogeneity. Different unobservable characteristics may affect renting-out decisions. Thus, the appropriate method of analysis was the instrumental variable estimation technic. Therefore, the family of instrumental variable estimation methods two-stage least-squares regression (2SLS, the generalized method of moments (GMM), Limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), and instrumental variable Tobit (IV-Tobit) was used. Besides, a method to handle a binary endogenous variable is applied, which uses a two-step estimation. In the first step probit model includes instruments, and in the second step, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) (“etregress” command in Stata 14) was used. There was lower fertilizer use per hectare on sharecropped and fixed rented plots relative to owner-operated. The result supports the Marshallian inefficiency principle in sharecropping. The difference in fertilizer use per hectare could be explained by a lack of incentivized detailed contract forms, such as giving more proportion of the output to the tenant under sharecropping contracts, which motivates to use of more fertilizer in rented plots to maximize the production because most sharecropping arrangements share output equally between tenants and landlords.

Keywords: tenure-contracts, endogeneity, plot-level data, Ethiopia, fertilizer

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Authors: Rabih Al-Kaysi

Abstract:

When quasi-stable solutions of 9-methylanthracene (pi-electron donor, 0.0005 M) and 1,2,4,5-Tetracyanobenzene (pi-electron acceptor, 0.0005 M) in aqueous sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS, 0.025 M) were gently mixed, uniform-shaped rectangular charge-transfer nanocrystals precipitated out. These red colored charge-transfer (CT) crystals were composed of a 1:1-mole ratio of acceptor/ donor and are highly insoluble in water/SDS solution. The rectangular crystals morphology is semi hollow with symmetrical twin pockets reminiscent of nanocapsules. For a typical crop of nanocapsules, the dimensions are 21 x 6 x 0.5 microns with an approximate hollow volume of 1.5 x 105 nm3. By varying the concentration of aqueous SDS, mixing duration and incubation temperature, we can control the size and volume of the nanocapsules. The initial number of CT seed nanoparticles, formed by mixing the D and A solutions, determined the number and dimensions of the obtained nanocapsules formed after several hours of incubation under still conditions. Prolonged mixing of the donor and acceptor solutions resulted in plenty of initial seeds hence smaller nanocapsules. Short mixing times yields less seed formation and larger micron-sized capsules. The addition of Doxorubicin in situ with the quasi-stable solutions while mixing leads to the formation of CT nanocapsules with Doxorubicin sealed inside. The Doxorubicin can be liberated from the nanocapsules by cracking them using ultrasonication. This method can be extended to other binary CT complex crystals as well.

Keywords: charge-transfer, nanocapsules, nanocrystals, doxorubicin

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Authors: H. Solomon, A. Abdul-Latif, R. Baleh, I. Deiab, K. Khanafer

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Aluminum foams were developed and tested due to their high energy absorption abilities for multifunctional applications. The aim of this research work was to investigate experimentally the effect of quasi-static biaxial loading complexity (combined compression-torsion) on the energy absorption capacity of highly uniform architecture open-cell aluminum foam manufactured by kelvin cell model. The two generated aluminum foams have 80% and 85% porosities, spherical-shaped pores having 11mm in diameter. These foams were tested by means of several square-section specimens. A patented rig called ACTP (Absorption par Compression-Torsion Plastique), was used to investigate the foam response under quasi-static complex loading paths having different torsional components (i.e., 0°, 37° and 53°). The main mechanical responses of the aluminum foams were studied under simple, intermediate and severe loading conditions. In fact, the key responses to be examined were stress plateau and energy absorption capacity of the two foams with respect to loading complexity. It was concluded that the higher the loading complexity and the higher the relative density, the greater the energy absorption capacity of the foam. The highest energy absorption was thus recorded under the most complicated loading path (i.e., biaxial-53°) for the denser foam (i.e., 80% porosity).

Keywords: open-cell aluminum foams, biaxial loading complexity, foams porosity, energy absorption capacity, characterization

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Authors: Arunava Chakrabarti

Abstract:

A one-dimensional chain of magnetic atoms, representative of a quantum gas in an artificial quasi-periodic potential and modeled by the well-known Aubry-Andre function and its variants are studied in respect of its capability of working as a spin filter for arbitrary spins. The basic formulation is explained in terms of a perfectly periodic chain first, where it is shown that a definite correlation between the spin S of the incoming particles and the magnetic moment h of the substrate atoms can open up a gap in the energy spectrum. This is crucial for a spin filtering action. The simple one-dimensional chain is shown to be equivalent to a 2S+1 strand ladder network. This equivalence is exploited to work out the condition for the opening of gaps. The formulation is then applied for a one-dimensional chain with quasi-periodic variation in the site potentials, the magnetic moments and their orientations following an Aubry-Andre modulation and its variants. In addition, we show that a certain correlation between the system parameters can generate absolutely continuous bands in such systems populated by Bloch like extended wave functions only, signaling the possibility of a metal-insulator transition. This is a case of correlated disorder (a deterministic one), and the results provide a non-trivial variation to the famous Anderson localization problem. We have worked within a tight binding formalism and have presented explicit results for the spin half, spin one, three halves and spin five half particles incident on the magnetic chain to explain our scheme and the central results.

Keywords: Aubry-Andre model, correlated disorder, localization, spin filter

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Authors: Tal Remez, Or Litany, Alex Bronstein

Abstract:

The pursuit of smaller pixel sizes at ever increasing resolution in digital image sensors is mainly driven by the stringent price and form-factor requirements of sensors and optics in the cellular phone market. Recently, Eric Fossum proposed a novel concept of an image sensor with dense sub-diffraction limit one-bit pixels (jots), which can be considered a digital emulation of silver halide photographic film. This idea has been recently embodied as the EPFL Gigavision camera. A major bottleneck in the design of such sensors is the image reconstruction process, producing a continuous high dynamic range image from oversampled binary measurements. The extreme quantization of the Poisson statistics is incompatible with the assumptions of most standard image processing and enhancement frameworks. The recently proposed maximum-likelihood (ML) approach addresses this difficulty, but suffers from image artifacts and has impractically high computational complexity. In this work, we study a variant of a sensor with binary threshold pixels and propose a reconstruction algorithm combining an ML data fitting term with a sparse synthesis prior. We also show an efficient hardware-friendly real-time approximation of this inverse operator. Promising results are shown on synthetic data as well as on HDR data emulated using multiple exposures of a regular CMOS sensor.

Keywords: binary pixels, maximum likelihood, neural networks, sparse coding

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