Search results for: Lidya Hailu

Authors: Lidya Hailu, Ramesh Duraisamy, Masood Akhtar Khan, Belete Yilma

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Disposable food packaging is a single-use plastics that can include any disposable plastic item which could be designed and use only once. In this context, this study aimed to prepare and evaluate bioplastic food packaging material from avocado seed starch and sugarcane bagasse cellulose and to characterise avocado seed starch. Performed the physicomechanical, structural, thermal properties, and biodegradability of raw materials and readily prepared bioplastic using the universal tensile testing machine, FTIR, UV-Vis spectroscopy, TGA, XRD, and SEM. Results have shown that an increasing amount of glycerol (3-5 mL) resulted in increases in water absorption, density, water vapor permeability, and elongation at the break of prepared bioplastic. However, it causes decreases in % transmittance, thermal degradation, and the tensile strength of prepared bioplastic. Likewise, the addition of cellulose fiber (0-15 %) increases % transmittance ranged (91.34±0.12-63.03±0.05 %), density (0.93±0.04-1.27±0.02 g/cm3), thermal degradation (310.01-321.61°C), tensile strength (2.91±6.18-4.21±6.713 MPa) of prepared bioplastic. On the other hand, it causes decreases in water absorption (14.4±0.25-9.40±0.007 %), water vapor permeability (9.306x10-12±0.3-3.57x10-12±0.15 g•s−1•m−1•Pa−1) and elongation at break (34.46±3.37-27.63±5.67 %) of prepared bioplastic. All the readily prepared bioplastic films rapidly degraded in the soil in the first 6 days and decompose within 12 days with a diminutive leftover and completely degraded within 15 days under an open soil atmosphere. Studied results showed starch derived bioplastic reinforced with 15 % cellulose fiber that plasticized with 3 mL of glycerol had improved results than other combinations of glycerol and bagasse cellulose with avocado seed starch. Thus, biodegradable disposable food packaging cup has been successfully produced in the lab-scale level using the studied approach. Biodegradable disposable food packaging materials have been successfully produced by employing avocado seed starch and sugarcane bagasse cellulose. The future study should be done on nano scale production since this study was done at the micro level.

Keywords: avocado seed, food packaging, glycerol, sugarcane bagasse

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Authors: Gebreegziabher Hailu Gebrecherkos

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This study explores the derivatives of functions defined by I-functions of two variables and their connections to generalized M-series. We begin by defining I-functions, which are generalized functions that encompass various special functions, and analyze their properties. By employing advanced calculus techniques, we derive new formulas for the first and higher-order derivatives of I-functions with respect to their variables; we establish some derivative formulae of the I-function of two variables involving generalized M-series. The special cases of our derivatives yield interesting results.

Keywords: I-function, Mellin-Barners control integral, generalized M-series, higher order derivative

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Authors: Gebreegziabher Hailu Gebrecherkos

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This study explores the intersection of categorification and computation within algebraic combinatorial structures, aiming to deepen the understanding of how categorical frameworks can enhance computational methods. We investigate the role of higher-dimensional categories in organizing and analyzing combinatorial data, revealing how these structures can lead to new computational techniques for solving complex problems in algebraic combinatory. By examining examples such as species, posets, and operads, we illustrate the transformative potential of categorification in generating new algorithms and optimizing existing ones. Our findings suggest that integrating categorical insights with computational approaches not only enriches the theoretical landscape but also provides practical tools for tackling intricate combinatorial challenges, ultimately paving the way for future research in both fields.

Keywords: categorification, computation, algebraic structures, combinatorics

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Authors: Dawit Hailekrios Hailu

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The main objective of this study is to predict the sediment yield of the Jido River Watershed. Jido River is the largest tributary and covers around 50% of the total catchment area of Lake Shala. This research is undertaken to analyze the sediment yield of the catchments, transport capacity of the streams and sediment deposition rates of Jido River, which is located in the Sub-basin of Shala Lake, Rift Valley Basin of Ethiopia. The input data were Meteorological, Hydrological, land use/land cover maps and soil maps collected from concerned government offices. The sediment yield of Jido River and sediment change of the streams discharging into the Shala Lake were modeled.

Keywords: sediment yield, watershed, simulation, calibration

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Authors: Hailu Getnet

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This study focus on reverse innovation on performance outcomes across developed and subsistence markets context. The subsistence market consists two third of the world population and the largest international market. To date, it has been neglected because of its issues of perceived challenges and seeming unattractiveness compared to the established markets in the west. However, subsistence markets are becoming source of reverse innovation; an innovation that is likely to be adopted first in developing world and successfully traded globally. In response, there is a growing interest on reverse innovation to power the future. Based on the theories of innovation and growing subsistence market literatures, the study propose drivers and outcomes of reverse innovation, a potential similarities and difference in benefiting and challenging firms and consumers in subsistence and developed markets.

Keywords: reverse innovation, subsistence market, developing world, developed market

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Authors: Shenko Chura Aredo, Hailu Belay, Kevin T. Kornegay

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In light of Adama City’s smart city development vision, this study thoroughly investigates the performance of smart security systems with Fifth Generation (5G) network capabilities. It can be logistically difficult to install a lot of cabling, particularly in big or dynamic settings. Moreover, latency issues might affect linked systems, making it difficult for them to monitor in real time. Through a focused analysis that employs Adama City as a case study, the performance has been evaluated in terms of spectrum and energy efficiency using empirical data and basic signal processing formulations at different frequency resources. The findings also demonstrate that cameras working at higher 5G frequencies have more capacity than those operating at sub-6 GHz, notwithstanding frequency-related issues. It has also been noted that when the beams of such cameras are adaptively focussed based on the distance of the last cell edge user rather than the maximum cell radius, less energy is required than with conventional fixed power ramping.

Keywords: 5G, energy efficiency, safety, smart security, spectral efficiency

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Authors: Gebreegziabher Hailu Gebrecherkos

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This study examines the effectiveness of GeoGebra in developing the conceptual understanding of transformation geometry among Grade 11 students. Utilizing a quasi-experimental design, the research compares the learning outcomes of students who engaged with GeoGebra against those who received traditional instruction. Pre- and post-tests were administered to assess students' grasp of key transformation concepts, including translations, rotations, reflections, and dilations. Additionally, qualitative data were gathered through student interviews and classroom observations to explore their experiences and perceptions of using GeoGebra. Results indicate that students utilizing GeoGebra showed significantly greater improvement in their understanding of transformation geometry concepts. The interactive features of GeoGebra facilitated visualization and exploration, leading to enhanced engagement and deeper conceptual insights. The findings underscore the potential of GeoGebra as a powerful educational tool that not only fosters mathematical understanding but also accommodates diverse learning styles in the classroom. This study contributes valuable insights for educators seeking to improve the teaching and learning of transformation geometry in secondary education.

Keywords: calculus, conceptual understanding, GeoGebra, transformation geometry

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Authors: Getu Hailu, Catelynn Hettick, Niklas Pieper, Paul Kim, Augustine Hamner

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Airborne transmission is a problem that all viral respiratory diseases have in common. In late 2019, a disease outbreak, now known as SARS-CoV-2, suddenly expanded across China and the rest of the world in a matter of months. Research on the spread and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 airborne particles is ongoing, as well as the development of strategies for the prevention of the spread of these pathogens using indoor air quality (IAQ) methods. By evaluating the surface area of pollutants on the surface of a mannequin in a mock-based clinic room, this study aims to better understand how altering temperature and relative humidity affect aerosol spread and contamination. Four experiments were carried out at a constant temperature of 70 degrees Fahrenheit but with four different humidity levels of 0%, 30%, 45 percent, and 60%. The mannequin was placed in direct aerosol flow since it was discovered that this was the position with the largest exposed surface area. The findings demonstrate that as relative humidity increased while the temperature remained constant, the amount of surface area infected by virus particles decreased. These findings point to approaches to reduce the spread of viral particles, such as SARS-CoV-2 and emphasize the significance of IAQ controls in enclosed environments.

Keywords: IAQ, ventilation, COVID-19, humidity, temperature

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Authors: Rebecca Owusu Coffie, Atakelty Hailu

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Variants of production frontier models have emerged, however, only a limited number of them are applied in empirical research. Hence the effects of these alternative frontier models are not well understood, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we apply recent advances in the production frontier to examine levels of technical efficiency and efficiency drivers. Specifically, we compare the heteroscedastic parametric and the semiparametric stochastic smooth coefficient (SPSC) models. Using rice production data from Ghana, our empirical estimates reveal that alternative specification of efficiency estimators results in either downward or upward bias in the technical efficiency estimates. Methodologically, we find that the SPSC model is more suitable and generates high-efficiency estimates. Within the parametric framework, we find that parameterization of both the mean and variance of the pre-truncated function is the best model. For the drivers of technical efficiency, we observed that longer farm distances increase inefficiency through a reduction in labor productivity. High soil quality, however, increases productivity through increased land productivity.

Keywords: pre-truncated, rice production, smooth coefficient, technical efficiency

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Authors: Henok Asfaw Hailu, P. D. Rwelamila

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Creating a suitable environment for successful projects needs a rethink of the organisational design of the parent organisations. A Project-based organisation (PBO) is a unique organizational form suitable for implementing and managing business activities around projects. A construction firm is inherently a PBO as it executes most of its activities through projects. PBO design and development require an empirical foundation. This study aimed to fill this gap by developing a conceptual model to help transform Ethiopian construction firms (ECFs) into full-fledged PBOs by assimilating the required PBO characteristics. The study used an exploratory QUAL-quant research design approach. A thematic content analysis was performed to analyse the qualitative (Interviews) research data. Means, standard deviations, frequencies, percentages, one-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation were used to analyse the quantitative data. A transformational conceptual model was proposed and illustrated that transformation needs to begin by assessing the environment, strategic documents, and PBO characteristics. Assimilating missing PBO characteristics into ECFs is vital to realise organisations’ transformation into full-fledged PBOs.

Keywords: project-based organization, organizational design, dimensions, construction firms

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Authors: Dessie Tibebe, Yeshifana Ayenew, Marye Mulugeta, Yezbie Kassa, Zerubabel Moges, Dereje Yenealem, Tarekegn Fentie, Agmas Amare, Hailu Sheferaw Ayele

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Electrochemical treatment technology is a technique used for wastewater treatment due to its ability to eliminate impurities that are not easily removed by chemical processes. The objective of the study is the treatment and characterization of textile wastewater by an electrochemical process. The results obtained at various operational parameters indicated that at 20 minutes of electrochemical process at ( pH =7), initial concentration 10 mg/L, current density 37.5 mA/cm², voltage 9 v and temperature 25⁰C the highest removal efficiency was achieved. The kinetics of removal of selected metal by electrochemical treatment has been successfully described by the first-order rate equation. The results of microscopic techniques using SEM for the scarified electrode before treatment were uniform and smooth, but after the electrochemical process, the morphology was completely changed. This is due to the detection of the adsorbed aluminum hydroxide coming from adsorption of the conducting electrolyte, chemicals used in the experiments, alloying and the scrap impurities of the anode and cathode. The FTIR spectroscopic analysis broad bands at 3450 cm-¹ representing O-H functional groups, while the presence of H-O-H and Al-H groups are indicated by the bands at 2850-2750 cm-¹ and 1099 representing C-H functional groups.

Keywords: electrochemical, treatment, textile wastewater, kinetics, removal efficiency

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Authors: Medhin Haftom Hailu

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The advancement of information technology has significantly impacted Ethiopia's economy, driving innovation, productivity, job creation, and global connectivity. This research examined the impact of contemporary information and communication technologies on Ethiopian economic progress. The study examined eight variables, including mobile, internet, and fixed-line penetration rates, and five macroeconomic control variables. The results showed a positive and strong effect of ICT on economic growth in Ethiopia, with 1% increase in mobile, internet, and fixed line services penetration indexes resulting in an 8.03, 10.05, and 30.06% increase in real GDP. The Granger causality test showed that all ICT variables Granger caused economic growth, but economic growth Granger caused mobile penetration rate only. The study suggests that coordinated ICT infrastructure development, increased telecom service accessibility, and increased competition in the telecom market are crucial for Ethiopia's economic growth. Ethiopia is attempting to establish a digital economy through massive investment in ensuring ICT quality and accessibility. Thus, the research could enhance in understanding of the economic impact of ICT expansion for successful ICT policy interventions for future research.

Keywords: economic growth, cointegration and error correction, ICT expansion, granger causality, penetration

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Authors: Gebreegziabher Hailu

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This paper presents the development of residual power series methods aimed at efficiently solving stiff differential equations, which pose significant challenges in numerical analysis due to their rapid changes in solution behavior. The RPSM is a numerical approach that generates polynomial-based approximate solutions without the need for linearization, discretization, or perturbation techniques, making it straightforward to implement and less prone to computational errors. We introduce an approach that utilizes power series expansions combined with residual minimization techniques to enhance convergence and stability. By analyzing the theoretical foundations of stiffness, we delve into the formulation of the residual power series method, detailing how it effectively captures the dynamics of stiff systems while maintaining computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate the method's superiority in terms of accuracy and computational cost when compared to traditional methods like implicit Runge-Kutta or multistep techniques. We also explore adaptive strategies within our framework to automatically adjust parameters based on the stiffness characteristics of the problem at hand. Ultimately, our findings contribute to the broader toolkit for tackling stiff differential equations, offering a robust alternative that promises to streamline computational workflows in various applied mathematics and engineering contexts.

Keywords: residual power series methods, stiff differential equoations, numerical approach, Runge Kutta methods

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Authors: Shanko Chura Aredo, Hailu Jeldie Wodajo, Muktar Jeylan, Kedir Ilka, Abdulnasir Husein

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Toll-free numbers are calling numbers that have unique three or four digit numbers and that don’t require payment from phone lines in order to be called. With the help of these numbers, callers can connect with nearby organizations and/or people without incurring far-reaching fees. Calls to assistance centers are especially popular from toll-free phones. In the past, toll-free services have offered prospective clients and other parties a simple and cost-free means of getting in touch with enterprises. Nevertheless, unless they have an ”unlimited calling” plan, wireless subscribers will be billed for the airtime minutes used during a toll-free call. In Adama, the second largest city in Ethiopia, a call center has been installed as part of smart security system and serving since January 2023 for collection of complaints from different community levels. The call center is situated at the mayor office and has 11 active workers, 4 of these working the night time and the remaining during day time. The information reported in the form of complaints from individuals and groups are illegal constructions, illegal trade, income concealment or hiding, giving and receiving bribe, informing new faces of suspected enemies and exposing individual or group conflicts. This technology has been found to bring a significant outcome in minimizing illegal acts, public safety threats and service delivery problems.

Keywords: smart, safety, crime, call center, security

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Authors: Tsegay Giday Woldu, Haibin Zhang, Xin Zhang, Yemane Hailu Fissuh

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It is well known that nonlinear conjugate gradient method is one of the widely used first order methods to solve large scale unconstrained smooth optimization problems. Because of the low memory requirement, attractive theoretical features, practical computational efficiency and nice convergence properties, nonlinear conjugate gradient methods have a special role for solving large scale unconstrained optimization problems. Large scale optimization problems are with important applications in practical and scientific world. However, nonlinear conjugate gradient methods have restricted information about the curvature of the objective function and they are likely less efficient and robust compared to some second order algorithms. To overcome these drawbacks, the new modified nonlinear conjugate gradient method is presented. The noticeable features of our work are that the new search direction possesses the sufficient descent property independent of any line search and it belongs to a trust region. Under mild assumptions and standard Wolfe line search technique, the global convergence property of the proposed algorithm is established. Furthermore, to test the practical computational performance of our new algorithm, numerical experiments are provided and implemented on the set of some large dimensional unconstrained problems. The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm is an efficient and robust compared with other similar algorithms.

Keywords: conjugate gradient method, global convergence, large scale optimization, sufficient descent property

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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An estimating equation technique is an alternative method of the widely used maximum likelihood methods, which enables us to ease some complexity due to the complex characteristics of time-varying covariates. In the situations, when both the time-varying covariates and left-truncation are considered in the model, the maximum likelihood estimation procedures become much more burdensome and complex. To ease the complexity, in this study, the modified estimating equations those have been given high attention and considerations in many researchers under semiparametric transformation model was proposed. The purpose of this article was to develop the modified estimating equation under flexible and general class of semiparametric transformation models for left-truncated and right censored survival data with time-varying covariates. Besides the commonly applied Cox proportional hazards model, such kind of problems can be also analyzed with a general class of semiparametric transformation models to estimate the effect of treatment given possibly time-varying covariates on the survival time. The consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were intuitively derived via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance for the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data examples. To sum up the study, the bias for covariates has been adjusted by estimating density function for the truncation time variable. Then the effect of possibly time-varying covariates was evaluated in some special semiparametric transformation models.

Keywords: EM algorithm, estimating equation, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time varying covariate

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Authors: Haftu Hailu Berhe, Hailekiros Sibhato Gebremichael, Kinfe Tsegay Beyene, Haileselassie Mehari

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The purpose of the study is to develop and validate integrated literature-based JIT, TQM, TPM, SCM and LSS framework through a combination of the PDCA cycle and DMAIC methodology. The study adopted a mixed research approach. Accordingly, the qualitative study employed to develop the framework is based on identifying the uniqueness and common practices of JIT, TQM, TPM, SCM and LSS initiatives, the existing practice of the integration, identifying the existing gaps in the framework and practices, developing new integrated JIT, TQM, TPM, SCM and LSS practice framework. Previous very few studies of the uniqueness and common practices of the five initiatives are preserved. Whereas the quantitative study working to validate the framework is based on empirical analysis of the self-administered questionnaire using a statistical package for social science. A combination of the PDCA cycle and DMAIC methodology stand integrated CI framework is developed. The proposed framework is constructed as a project-based framework with five detailed implementation phases. Besides, the empirical analysis demonstrated that the proposed framework is valuable if adopted and implemented correctly. So far, there is no study proposed & validated the integrated CI framework within the scope of the study. Therefore, this is the earliest study that proposed and validated the framework for manufacturing industries. The proposed framework is applicable to manufacturing industries and can assist in achieving competitive advantages when the manufacturing industries, institutions and government offer unconditional efforts in implementing the full contents of the framework.

Keywords: integrated continuous improvement framework, just in time, total quality management, total productive maintenance, supply chain management, lean six sigma

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Authors: Redie Bezabih Hailu

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Unemployment is a problem of nations that needs a continuous research. This study aimed to determine the collaborations and challenges of public employment service (PES) with special emphasis of stakeholders, employers and job seekers. The researcher used pragmatic philosophy, exploratory design and inductive approach to collect data from the respondents using interview and focused group discussion techniques. PES provides job market information, vocational counseling, and training. As PES is not fully furnished with man power, budget, modern technologies, it is providing less adequate services to the employers and job seekers. Matching job seekers with job vacancies is the major challenge for the center and using paper-based data management system too. There is also a number of job seekers in spite of very limited number of vacancies that the service provision is poor due to the fact that there is low level of vacancies and high level of job seekers. The center has collaboration with AFE, AYA, BoTVED, BoWCY, and CETU. The major challenges with this collaborations was the absence of operational guidelines to evaluate effectiveness and performance, lottery method of selecting candidates for vacancies and nepotism or favoritism were challenges for job seekers. On the other hand, (COVID-19) pandemic, inability to get skilled labor, absence of standardized payment, expectation of job seekers and less educational quality and mass graduation were another challenges for employment services. The study recommended quality education and training, operational guideline for collaboration, technology based labor market information system and suggested further studies on quality of PES.

Keywords: public employment service, collaborations, stakeholders, employers, job seekers

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Authors: Hailu Dessalegn, T. Srinivas

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We propose new multiple-channel piezoelectric (PZT) actuated tunable optical filter based on racetrack multi-ring resonators for wavelength de-multiplexing network applications. We design tunable eight-channel wavelength de-multiplexer consisting of eight cascaded PZT actuated tunable multi-ring resonator filter with a channel spacing of 1.6 nm. The filter for each channel is basically structured on a suspended beam, sandwiched with piezoelectric material and built in integrated ring resonators which are placed on the middle of the beam to gain uniform stress and linearly varying longitudinal strain. A reference single mode serially coupled multi stage racetrack ring resonator with the same radii and coupling length is designed with a line width of 0.8974 nm with a flat top pass band at 1dB of 0.5205 nm and free spectral range of about 14.9 nm. In each channel, a small change in the perimeter of the rings is introduced to establish the shift in resonance wavelength as per the defined channel spacing. As a result, when a DC voltage is applied, the beams will elongate, which involves mechanical deformation of the ring resonators that induces a stress and a strain, which brings a change in refractive index and perimeter of the rings leading to change in the output spectrum shift providing the tunability of central wavelength in each channel. Simultaneous wave length shift as high as 45.54 pm/V has been achieved with negligible tunability variation in the eight channel tunable optical filter proportional to the DC voltage applied in the structure, and it is capable of tuning up to 3.45 nm in each channel with a maximum loss difference of 0.22 dB in the tuning range and out of band rejection ratio of 35 dB, with a low channel crosstalk ≤ 30 dB.

Keywords: optical MEMS, piezoelectric (PZT) actuation, tunable optical filter, wavelength de-multiplexer

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Authors: Chi Nguyen Thi Quynh, Steven Schilizzi, Atakelty Hailu, Sayed Iftekhar

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Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries (TURFs) have been emerged as a promising tool for fisheries conservation and management. However, illegal fishing has undermined the effectiveness of TURFs, profoundly degrading global fish stocks and marine ecosystems. Conservation and management of fisheries, therefore, largely depends on effectiveness of enforcing fishing regulations, which needs co-enforcement by fishers. However, fishers tend to resist monitoring participation, as their views towards monitoring scheme design has not been received adequate attention. Fishers’ acceptability of a monitoring scheme is likely to be achieved if there is a mechanism allowing fishers to engage in the early planning and design stages. This study carried out a choice experiment with 396 fishers in Vietnam to elicit fishers’ preferences for monitoring scheme and to estimate the relative importance that fishers place on the key design elements. Preference heterogeneity was investigated using a Scale-Adjusted Latent Class Model that accounts for both preference and scale variance. Welfare changes associated with the proposed monitoring schemes were also examined. It is found that there are five distinct preference classes, suggesting that there is no one-size-fits-all scheme well-suited to all fishers. Although fishers prefer to be compensated more for their participation, compensation is not a driving element affecting fishers’ choice. Most fishers place higher value on other elements, such as institutional arrangements and monitoring capacity. Fishers’ preferences are driven by their socio-demographic and psychological characteristics. Understanding of how changes in design elements’ levels affect the participation of fishers could provide policy makers with insights useful for monitoring scheme designs tailored to the needs of different fisher classes.

Keywords: Design of monitoring scheme, Enforcement, Heterogeneity, Illegal Fishing, Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries

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Authors: Abera Hailu Degaga, Emana Getu Degaga

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Spodoptera frugiperda is an invasive insect pest that infests and feeds various crops, particularly affecting maize yields. However, nature has its own way of maintaining balance, and in this case, natural enemies play a crucial role in regulating the population of S. frugiperda. Locally available and easily prepared botanical sources, bio-pesticides, are also important. The objectives of the study were to investigate the natural enemies of S. frugiperda in the Gurage zone and to compare Neem aqueous extracts against its larvae in central Ethiopia. S. frugiperda larvae and egg masses were collected randomly from smallholder maize farms infested with pests between June and August 2023. Our findings revealed the existence of diverse types of parasitoids, predators, and entomopathogenic fungi associated with S. frugiperda. Notably, we documented three species of parasitoids, namely Exorista xanthaspis and Tachina spp. (Diptera: Tachinidae) and Charops annulipes (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae). All three species of parasitoids were recorded from Ethiopia for the first time. The overall parasitism rate was 5.3%, with individual rates ranging from 1.3 to 4%. Additionally, we identified ten species of predator insects from four different orders, including Hemiptera, Dermaptera, Coleoptera, and Mantodea, in the maize farms infested with S. frugiperda. Aqueous extract of Neem seed and leaf powder and green leaf exhibited similar mortality rates of S. frugiperda larvae at 72 hours even though there was a significant difference at 24 and 48 hours of the test. For effective management of S. frugiperda further research is necessary to fully exploit the potential of these natural enemies and additionally to use botanical source pesticides like Azadirachta indica.

Keywords: bio-pesticide, natural enemy, parasitoids, predators, Tachinid flies

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Authors: Hailu Kebede Bekele

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Construction delays are suitable where project events occur at a certain time expected due to causes related to the client, consultant, and contractor. Delay is the major cause of the cost overrun that leads to the poor efficiency of the project. The cost difference between completion and the originally estimated is known as cost overrun. The common ways of cost overruns are not simple issues that can be neglected, but more attention should be given to prevent the organization from being devastated to be failed, and financial expenses to be extended. The reasons that may raised in different studies show that the problem may arise in construction projects due to errors in budgeting, lack of favorable weather conditions, inefficient machinery, and the availability of extravagance. The study is focused on the pace of mega projects that can have a significant change in the cost overrun calculation.15 mega projects are identified to study the problem of the cost overrun in the site. The contractor, consultant, and client are the principal stakeholders in the mega projects. 20 people from each sector were selected to participate in the investigation of the current mega construction project. The main objective of the study on the construction cost overrun is to prioritize the major causes of the cost overrun problem. The methodology that was employed in the construction cost overrun is the qualitative methodology that mostly rates the causes of construction project cost overrun. Interviews, open-ended and closed-ended questions group discussions, and rating qualitative methods are the best methodologies to study construction projects overrun. The result shows that design mistakes, lack of labor, payment delay, old equipment and scheduling, weather conditions, lack of skilled labor, payment delays, transportation, inflation, and order variations, market price fluctuation, and people's thoughts and philosophies, the prior cause of the cost overrun that fail the project performance. The institute shall follow the scheduled activities to bring a positive forward in the project life.

Keywords: cost overrun, delay, mega projects, design

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Authors: Mekonen Hailu, Gashaw Tesfaye, Adamneh Dagne, Hiwot Teshome

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Lake Hawassa is one of the most important lakes for Ethiopian fishery. It serves as a source of food and nutrition, income and livelihood for many inhabitants. However, the fishery in Lake Hawassa shows a declining trend, especially for the most valuable species, such as the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.), indicating that the existing management systems are either not fully enforced or inadequate. The aim of this study was therefore to develop management policy options for the sustainable utilization and management of fishery resources in Lake Hawassa. A blend of primary and secondary data was used for the study. Primary data were collected using Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) techniques such as focus group discussions with members of fishing co-operatives, co-operative leaders and key informant discussion to understand the current state of the fisheries resources. Then literatures were reviewed to obtain secondary data and develop alternative management policy options. It has been realized that Lake Hawassa is not very species-rich in terms of fish diversity. It contains only six species belonging to four families, of which only three are commercially important, including the Nile tilapia (90 % of catches), the African catfish Clarias gariepinus B. (7 % of catches) and the African large barb Labeobarbus intermedius R. (only 3 % of catches). The production has been declining since 2007. The top six challenges that could be responsible for this decline, identified by about two-thirds of respondents and supported by the literature review, are directly linked to fisheries and fisheries management, with overfishing, irregular monitoring, control, and surveillance (MCS) system and the lack of a fishing licensing system ranking first, second and third respectively. It is, therefore, important to address these and other problems identified in the study. Of the management options analyzed, we suggest adapting the management approach to sustain the fishery in Lake Hawaasa and its socio-economic benefits. We also present important conditions for successfully implementing co-management in this and other lakes in Ethiopia.

Keywords: comanagement, community-based management, fishery, overfishing, participatory approach, top-down management

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Mekonen Hailu, Liu Liping

Abstract:

Cage aquaculture is highly preferred due to higher production per unit volume of water, lower costs of investment, and simpler routine farm management procedures compared to pond systems. In the 1980s, cage culture was first used on a trial basis in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past 20 years, a small number of prosperous freshwater cage culture operations have started to emerge in Egypt, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Brackish and marine cage culture also offers a lot of potential, although this subsector hasn't seen any significant commercial growth to date. In 2019, 263 cage aquaculture installations on the African inland waters on 18 water bodies within eight countries with an estimated 20,114 cages were reported. The lakes Victoria, Kariba, Volta, and River Volta, which together account for 82.9% of all cage aquaculture installations regarded as sub-Saharan Africa's principal cage aquaculture regions (Fig 1). Except few small-scale trials with North African catfish (Clarias gariepinus), almost all farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and Egypt grow Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). More than 247,398 tonnes of fish are produced yearly from ten African countries through cage aquaculture. The expansion of cage culture in Africa provides job opportunities for both skilled and unskilled workers, nutritious food and foreign currency. The escaping non-native strains of tilapia in Lake Volta and the occurrence of a risky Tilapia lake virus (syncytial hepatitis), which has the potential to wipe out entire populations in both wild and farmed Nile tilapia on Lake Victoria, are threats coming with the expansion of cage aquaculture in Africa. In addition, the installations of 138 cage aquacultures were found in contrary to best cage culture practices. To sustain cage aquaculture development and maintain harmony with other water uses, developers must strictly abide by best practices. Hence, the exclusion of protected areas and small lakes (average depth 5 m or less) should be done, as well an Environmental Impact Assessment should be conducted before establishing the cage farms.

Keywords: Africa, cage aquaculture, production, threats

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

Abstract:

a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

Procedia PDF Downloads 175