Search results for: Ferry Kurniawan

Authors: Ekki Kurniawan, Yusuf Nur Jayanto, Erna Sugesti, Efri Suhartono, Agus Ganda Permana, Jaspar Hasudungan, Jangkung Raharjo, Rintis Manfaati

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The purpose of this research is to study the current characteristic of the electrolysis of mineral water to produce hydrogen, alkaline water, and acid water. Alkaline and hydrogen water are believed to have health benefits. Alkaline water containing hydrogen can be an anti-oxidant that captures free radicals, which will increase the immune system. In Indonesia, there are two existing types of alkaline water producing equipment, but the installation is complicated, and the price is relatively expensive. The electrolysis process is slow (6-8 hours) since they are locally made using 311 VDC full bridge rectifier power supply. This paper intends to discuss how to make hydrogen and alkaline water by a simple portable mineral water ionizer. This is an electrolysis device that is easy to carry and able to separate ions of mineral water into acidic and alkaline water. With an electric field, positive ions will be attracted to the cathode, while negative ions will be attracted to the anode. The circuit equivalent can be depicted as RLC transient ciruit. The diode component ensures that the electrolytic current is direct current. Switch S divides the switching times t1, t2, and t3. In the first stage up to t1, the electrolytic current increases exponentially, as does the inductor charging current (L). The molecules in drinking water experience magnetic properties. The direction of the dipole ions, which are random in origin, will regularly flare with the direction of the electric field. In the second stage up to t2, the electrolytic current decreases exponentially, just like the charging current of a capacitor (C). In the 3rd stage, start t3 until it tends to be constant, as is the case with the current flowing through the resistor (R).

Keywords: current electrolysis, mineral water, ions, alkaline and acid waters, inductor, capacitor, resistor

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Sarono, Hamim Zaky Hadibasyir, dan Ridho Kurniawan

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Estimation of paddy production is one of the areas that can be examined using the techniques of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the field of agriculture. The purpose of this research is to know the amount of the paddy production estimation and how remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) are able to perform analysis of paddy production estimation in Tegalallang and Payangan Sub district, Bali Province, Indonesia. The method used is the method of land suitability. This method associates a physical parameters which are to be embodied in the smallest unit of a mapping that represents a mapping unit in a particular field and connecting with its field productivity. Analysis of estimated production using standard land suitability from FAO using matching technique. The parameters used to create the land unit is slope (FAO), climate classification (Oldeman), landform (Prapto Suharsono), and soil type. Land use map consist of paddy and non paddy field information obtained from Geo-eye 1 imagery using visual interpretation technique. Landsat image of the Data used for the interpretation of the landform, the classification of the slopes obtained from high point identification with method of interpolation spline, whereas climate data, soil, use secondary data originating from institutions-related institutions. The results of this research indicate Tegallalang and Payangan Districts in known wetland suitability consists of S1 (very suitable) covering an area of 2884,7 ha with the productivity of 5 tons/ha and S2 (suitable) covering an area of 482,9 ha with the productivity of 3 tons/ha. The sum of paddy production estimation as a results in both districts are 31.744, 3 tons in one year.

Keywords: production estimation, paddy, remote sensing, geography information system, land suitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: David Tanujaya Kurniawan

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Background: Liver injury caused by paracetamol is marked by increased serum transaminase levels. Turmeric is a local herb that is available in large quantities and inexpensive in contradiction to its substantial benefits, including its potency to increase glutathione production and regenerate hepatocyte into normal condition. Aim: The aim of this study was to analyze the potencial treatment effect of turmeric rhizome extract to reduce serum transaminase level on paracetamol induced liver toxicity in rats. Methods: This study was a laboratory experimental research with post-test only controlled group design. A group of 24 Wistar white male rats was induced with paracetamol 360 mg/kg body weight for 10 days. The group was then separated into four groups: the first and the second was treated with 100 mg/kg body weight and 150 mg/kg body weight of turmeric rhizome extract, subsequently, the third as positive control was given 27 mg/kg body weight of lesichol, while the fourth as negative control was given CMC-Na 1%. Each of this treatment was given for seven days. At the end of the study, the blood samples were taken to measure SGOT and SGPT levels. The one-way Anova test revealed significant difference in mean of SGPT level (p=0,001). The LSD test showed significant differences of SGPT levels in both treatment groups and negative control group. However, there was no sgnificant difference between positive control and both treatment groups. Conclusion: Curcuma domestica Val. rhizome extract could not reduce SGOT level, but it reduced SGPT level significantly.

Keywords: Curcuma domestica val., SGOT, SGPT, paracetamol, liver toxicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: K. A. Weidenmann, M. Grigo, B. Brylka, P. Elsner, T. Böhlke

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In order to reduce fuel consumption, the weight of automobiles has to be reduced. Fiber reinforced polymers offer the potential to reach this aim because of their high stiffness to weight ratio. Additionally, the use of fiber reinforced polymers in automotive applications has to allow for an economic large-scale production. In this regard, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics made by direct processing offer both mechanical performance and processability in injection moulding and compression moulding. The work presented in this contribution deals with long glass fiber reinforced polypropylene directly processed in compression moulding (D-LFT). For the use in automotive applications both the temperature and the time dependency of the materials properties have to be investigated to fulfill performance requirements during crash or the demands of service temperatures ranging from -40 °C to 80 °C. To consider both the influence of temperature and time, quasistatic tensile tests have been carried out at different temperatures. These tests have been complemented by high speed tensile tests at different strain rates. As expected, the increase in strain rate results in an increase of the elastic modulus which correlates to an increase of the stiffness with decreasing service temperature. The results are in good accordance with results determined by dynamic mechanical analysis within the range of 0.1 to 100 Hz. The experimental results from different testing methods were grouped and interpreted by using different time temperature shift approaches. In this regard, Williams-Landel-Ferry and Arrhenius approach based on kinetics have been used. As the theoretical shift factor follows an arctan function, an empirical approach was also taken into consideration. It could be shown that this approach describes best the time and temperature superposition for glass fiber reinforced polypropylene manufactured by D-LFT processing.

Keywords: composite, dynamic mechanical analysis, long fibre reinforced thermoplastics, mechanical properties, time temperature superposition

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Koko Iwan Agus Kurniawan, Dwi Purnomo, Anas Bunyamin, Arif Rahman Jaya

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Fruters model is a concept of technopreneurship-based on empowerment, in which technology research results were designed to create high value-added products and implemented as a locomotive of collaborative empowerment; thereby, the impact was widely spread. This model still needs to be inventoried and validated concerning the influenced variables in the business growth process. Model validation accompanied by mapping was required to be applicable to Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) agro-industry based on sustainable social business and existing real cases. This research explained the empowerment model of Yourgood, an SME, which emphasized on empowering the farmers/ breeders in farmers in rural areas, Cipageran, Cimahi, to housewives in urban areas, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. This research reviewed some works of literature discussing the agro-industrial development associated with the empowerment and social business process and gained a unique business model picture with the social business platform as well. Through the mapped business model, there were several advantages such as technology acquisition, independence, capital generation, good investment growth, strengthening of collaboration, and improvement of social impacts that can be replicated on other businesses. This research used analytical-descriptive research method consisting of qualitative analysis with design thinking approach and that of quantitative with the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process). Based on the results, the development of the enterprise’s process was highly affected by supplying farmers with the score of 0.248 out of 1, being the most valuable for the existence of the enterprise. It was followed by university (0.178), supplying farmers (0.153), business actors (0.128), government (0.100), distributor (0.092), techno-preneurship laboratory (0.069), banking (0.033), and Non-Government Organization (NGO) (0.031).

Keywords: agro-industry, small medium enterprises, empowerment, design thinking, AHP, business model canvas, social business

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Manqhai Kraai, Adrian M. Shrader, Peter F. Scogings

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For animals living in herds, competition between group members increases as herd size increases. The intensity of this competition is likely greater across poor quality landscapes and during the dry season. In contrast to wild herbivores, herd size in domestic livestock is determined by their owners. This then raises the question, how do domestic livestock, like goats, reduce competition for food within these defined herds? To explore this question, large-scale foraging behaviour of both small (12 to 28 individuals) and large (42 to 83 individuals) herds of free-ranging goats were recorded in Tugela Ferry, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study was conducted on three different landscapes that varied in both food quality and availability, during the wet and dry seasons of 2013-2014. The goats were housed in kraals overnight and let out in the mornings to forage unattended. Thus, foraging decisions were made by the goats and not by herders. The large-scale foraging behaviours focussed on included, (i) total distance travelled by goats while foraging, (ii) distance travelled before starting to feed, (iii) travel speed, and (iv) feeding duration. This was done using Garmin Foretrex 401 GPS devices harnessed to two goats per herd. Irrespective of season, there was no difference in the total distance travelled by the different sized herds across the different quality landscapes. However, both small and large herds started feeding farther from the kraal in the dry compared to the wet season. Despite this, there was no significant seasonal difference in total amount of time the herds spent feeding across the different landscapes. Finally, both small and large herds increased their travel speed across all the landscapes in the dry season, but large herds travelled faster than small herds. This increase was likely to maximise the time that large herds could spend feeding in good areas. Ultimately, these results indicate that both small and large herds were affected by declines in food quality and quantity during the dry season. However, as large herds made greater behavioural adjustments compared to smaller herds (i.e., feeding farther away from the kraal and travelling faster), it appeared that they were more affected by the seasonal increases in intra-herd competition.

Keywords: distance, feeding duration, food availability, food quality, travel speed

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Authors: Kukuh Suprayogi, Muhamad Natsir, Olif Kurniawan, Hot Parulian, Bayu Fitriana, Fery Mustofa

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The new approach by utilizing the heat propagation analysis carried out by studying and evaluating the effect of the presence of hydrocarbons to the flow of heat that goes from the bottom surface to surface. Heat propagation is determined by the thermal conductivity of rocks. The thermal conductivity of rock itself is a quantity that describes the ability of a rock to deliver heat. This quantity depends on the constituent rock lithology, large porosity, and pore fluid filler. The higher the thermal conductivity of a rock, the more easily the flow of heat passing through these rocks. With the same sense, the heat flow will more easily pass through the rock when the rock is filled with water than hydrocarbons, given the nature of the hydrocarbons having more insulator against heat. The main objective of this research is to try to make the model the heat propagation calculations in degrees Celsius from the subsurface to the surface which is then compared with the surface temperature is measured directly at the point of location. In calculating the propagation of heat, we need to first determine the thermal conductivity of rocks, where the rocks at the point calculation are not composed of homogeneous but consist of strata. Therefore, we need to determine the mineral constituent and porosity values of each stratum. As for the parameters of pore fluid filler, we assume that all the pores filled with water. Once we get a thermal conductivity value of each unit of the rock, then we begin to model the propagation of heat profile from the bottom to the surface. The initial value of the temperature that we use comes from the data bottom hole temperature (BHT) is obtained from drilling results. Results of calculations per depths the temperature is displayed in plotting temperature versus depth profiles that describe the propagation of heat from the bottom of the well to the surface, note that pore fluid is water. In the technical implementation, we can identify the magnitude of the effect of hydrocarbons in reducing the amount of heat that crept to the surface based on the calculation of propagation of heat at a certain point and compared with measurements of surface temperature at that point, assuming that the surface temperature measured is the temperature that comes from the asthenosphere. This publication proves that the accumulation of hydrocarbon can be identified by analysis of heat propagation profile which could be a method for identifying the presence of hydrocarbons.

Keywords: thermal conductivity, rock, pore fluid, heat propagation

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Authors: Akterono Budiyati, Gita Kusumo, Teguh Putra, Fritzie Rexana, Antonius Kurniawan, Aru Sudoyo, Ahmad Utomo, Andi Utama

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The presence of the programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) has been used in multiple clinical trials and approved as biomarker for selecting patients more likely to respond to immune checkpoint inhibitors. However, the expression of PD-L1 is regulated in different ways, which leads to a different significance of its presence. Positive PD-L1 within tumors may result from two mechanisms, induced PD-L1 expression by T-cell presence or genetic mechanism that lead to constitutive PD-L1 expression. Amplification of PD-L1 genes was found as one of genetic mechanism which causes an increase in PD-L1 expression. In case of colorectal cancer (CRC), targeting immune checkpoint inhibitor has been recommended for patients with microsatellite instable (MSI). Although the correlation between PD-L1 expression and MSI status has been widely studied, so far the precise mechanism of PD-L1 gene activation in CRC patients, particularly in MSI population have yet to be clarified. In this present study we have profiled 61 archived formalin fixed paraffin embedded CRC specimens of patients from Medistra Hospital, Jakarta admitted in 2010 - 2016. Immunohistochemistry was performed to measure expression of PD-L1 in tumor cells as well as MSI status using antibodies against PD-L1 and MMR (MLH1, MSH2, PMS2 and MSH6), respectively. PD-L1 expression was measured on tumor cells with cut off of 1% whereas loss of nuclear MMR protein expressions in tumor cells but not in normal or stromal cells indicated presence of MSI. Subset of PD-L1 positive patients was then assessed for copy number variations (CNVs) using single Tube TaqMan Copy Number Assays Gene CD247PD-L1. We also observed KRAS mutation to profile possible genetic mechanism leading to the presence or absence of PD-L1 expression. Analysis of 61 CRC patients revealed 15 patients (24%) expressed PD-L1 on their tumor cell membranes. The prevalence of surface membrane PD-L1 was significantly higher in patients with MSI (87%; 7/8) compared to patients with microsatellite stable (MSS) (15%; 8/53) (P=0.001). Although amplification of PD-L1 gene was not found among PD-L1 positive patients, low-level amplification of PD-L1 gene was commonly observed in MSS patients (75%; 6/8) than in MSI patients (43%; 3/7). Additionally, we found 26% of CRC patients harbored KRAS mutations (16/61), so far the distribution of KRAS status did not correlate with PD-L1 expression. Our data suggest genetic mechanism through amplification of PD-L1 seems not to be the mechanism underlying upregulation of PD-L1 expression in CRC patients. However, further studies are warranted to confirm the results.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, gene amplification, microsatellite instable, programmed death ligand-1

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Authors: Kurniawan Adha, Wan Ismail Wan Yusoff, Luluan Almanna Lubis

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Preventing hazardous events during oil and gas operation is an important contribution of accurate pore pressure data. The availability of pore pressure data also contribute in reducing the operation cost. Suggested methods in pore pressure estimation were mostly complex by the many assumptions and hypothesis used. Basic properties which may have significant impact on estimation model are somehow being neglected. To date, most of pore pressure determinations are estimated by data model analysis and rarely include laboratory analysis, stratigraphy study or core check measurement. Basically, this study developed a model that might be applied to investigate the changes of pore pressure and effective stress due to hydrocarbon production. In general, this paper focused velocity model effect of pore pressure and effective stress changes due to hydrocarbon production with illustrated by changes in saturation. The core samples from Miri field from Sarawak Malaysia ware used in this study, where the formation consists of sandstone reservoir. The study area is divided into sixteen (16) layers and encompassed six facies (A-F) from the outcrop that is used for stratigraphy sequence model. The experimental work was firstly involving data collection through field study and developing stratigraphy sequence model based on outcrop study. Porosity and permeability measurements were then performed after samples were cut into 1.5 inch diameter core samples. Next, velocity was analyzed using SONIC OYO and AutoLab 500. Three (3) scenarios of saturation were also conducted to exhibit the production history of the samples used. Results from this study show the alterations of velocity for different saturation with different actions of effective stress and pore pressure. It was observed that sample with water saturation has the highest velocity while dry sample has the lowest value. In comparison with oil to samples with oil saturation, water saturated sample still leads with the highest value since water has higher fluid density than oil. Furthermore, water saturated sample exhibits velocity derived parameters, such as poisson’s ratio and P-wave velocity over S-wave velocity (Vp/Vs) The result shows that pore pressure value ware reduced due to the decreasing of fluid content. The decreasing of pore pressure result may soften the elastic mineral frame and have tendency to possess high velocity. The alteration of pore pressure by the changes in fluid content or saturation resulted in alteration of velocity value that has proportionate trend with the effective stress.

Keywords: pore pressure, effective stress, production, miri formation

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Markus Rütten, Olaf Wünsch

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Non-Newtonian fluid properties can change the flow behaviour significantly, its prediction is more difficult when thermal effects come into play. Hence, the focal point of this work is the wake flow behind a heated circular cylinder in the laminar vortex shedding regime for thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids. In the case of isothermal flows of Newtonian fluids the vortex shedding regime is characterised by a distinct Reynolds number and an associated Strouhal number. In the case of thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids the flow regime can significantly change in dependence of the temperature of the viscous wall of the cylinder. The Reynolds number alters locally and, consequentially, the Strouhal number globally. In the present CFD study the temperature dependence of the Reynolds and Strouhal number is investigated for the flow of a Carreau fluid around a heated cylinder. The temperature dependence of the fluid viscosity has been modelled by applying the standard Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) equation. In the present simulation campaign thermal boundary conditions have been varied over a wide range in order to derive a relation between dimensionless heat transfer, Reynolds and Strouhal number. Together with the shear thinning due to the high shear rates close to the cylinder wall this leads to a significant decrease of viscosity of three orders of magnitude in the nearfield of the cylinder and a reduction of two orders of magnitude in the wake field. Yet the shear thinning effect is able to change the flow topology: a complex K´arm´an vortex street occurs, also revealing distinct characteristic frequencies associated with the dominant and sub-dominant vortices. Heating up the cylinder wall leads to a delayed flow separation and narrower wake flow, giving lesser space for the sequence of counter-rotating vortices. This spatial limitation does not only reduce the amplitude of the oscillating wake flow it also shifts the dominant frequency to higher frequencies, furthermore it damps higher harmonics. Eventually the locally heated wake flow smears out. Eventually, the CFD simulation results of the systematically varied thermal flow parameter study have been used to describe a relation for the main characteristic order parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, thermo-viscous fluids, shear thinning, vortex shedding

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Anu Shrestha, Krassi Rumchev, Ben Mullins, Yun Zhao, Linda Selvey

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Cycling is often promoted as a means of reducing vehicular congestion, noise and greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in urban areas. It is also indorsed as a healthy means of transportation in terms of reducing the risk of developing a range of physical and psychological conditions. However, people who cycle regularly may not be aware that they can become exposed to high levels of Vehicular Air Pollutants (VAP) emitted by nearby traffics and therefore experience adverse health effects as a result. The study will highlight the present scenario of ambient air pollution level in different cycling routes in Perth and also highlight significant contribution to the understanding of health risks that cyclist may face from exposure to particulate air pollution. Methodology: This research was conducted in Perth, Western Austral and consisted of two groups of cyclists cycling near high (2 routes) and low (two routes) vehicular traffic roads, at high and low levels of exertion, during the cold and warm seasons. A sample size of 123 regular cyclists who cycled at least 80 km/week, aged 20-55, and non-smoker were selected for this study. There were altogether 100 male and 23 female who were asked to choose one or more routes among four different routes, and each participant cycled the route for warm or cold or both seasons. Cyclist who reported cardiovascular and other chronic health conditions (excluding asthma) were not invited into the study. Exposures to selected air pollutants were assessed by undertaking background and personal measurements alone with the measurement of heart and breathe rate of each participant. Finding: According to the preliminary study findings, the cyclists who used cycling route close to high traffic route were exposed to higher levels of measured air pollutants Nitrogen Oxide (NO₂) =0.12 ppm, sulfur dioxide (SO₂)=0.06 ppm and carbon monoxide (CO)=0.25 PPM compared to those who cycled away from busy roads. However, we measured high concentrations of particulate air pollution near one of the low traffic route which we associate with the close proximity to ferry station. Concluding Statement: As a conclusion, we recommend that cycling routes should be selected away from high traffic routes. If possible, we should also consider that if the cycling route is surrounded by the dense populated infrastructures, it can trap the pollutants and always facilitate in increasing inhalation of particle count among the cyclists.

Keywords: air pollution, carbon monoxide, cyclists' health, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxide, respirable particulate matters

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Authors: Keiko Tamura, Munenari Inoguchi, Michiyo Tsuji

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When disasters occur, in order to raise the speed of each decision making and response, it is common that delegation of authority is carried out. This tendency is particularly evident when the department or branch of the organization are separated by the physical distance from the main body; however, there are some issues to think about. If the department or branch is too dependent on the head office in the usual condition, they might feel lost in the disaster response operation when they are face to the situation. Avoiding this problem, an organization should decide how to delegate the authority and also who accept the responsibility for what before the disaster. This paper will discuss about the method which presents an approach for executing the delegation of authority process, implementing authorities, management by objectives, and preparedness plans and agreement. The paper will introduce the examples of efforts for the three research centers of Niigata University, Japan to arrange organizations capable of taking necessary actions for disaster response. Each center has a quality all its own. One is the center for carrying out the research in order to conserve the crested ibis (or Toki birds in Japanese), the endangered species. The another is the marine biological laboratory. The third one is very unique because of the old growth forests maintained as the experimental field. Those research centers are in the Sado Island, located off the coast of Niigata Prefecture, is Japan's second largest island after Okinawa and is known for possessing a rich history and culture. It takes 65 minutes jetfoil (high-speed ferry) ride to get to Sado Island from the mainland. The three centers are expected to be easily isolated at the time of a disaster. A sense of urgency encourages 3 centers in the process of organizational restructuring for enhancing resilience. The research team from the risk management headquarters offer those procedures; Step 1: Offer the hazard scenario based on the scientific evidence, Step 2: Design a risk management organization for disaster response function, Step 3: Conduct the participatory approach to make consensus about the overarching objectives, Step 4: Construct the unified operational action plan for 3 centers, Step 5: Simulate how to respond in each phase based on the understanding the various phases of the timeline of a disaster. Step 6: Document results to measure performance and facilitate corrective action. This paper shows the result of verifying the output and effects.

Keywords: delegation of authority, disaster response, risk management, unified command

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Kabuga Daniel

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Road accidents resulting to deaths and injuries have become a new public health challenge especially in developing countries including Tanzania. Reports from Tanzania Traffic Police Force shows that last year 2016 accidents increased compare to previous year 2015, accident happened from 3710 up to 5219, accidents and safety data indicate that children are the most vulnerable to road crashes where 78 pupils died and 182 others were seriously injured in separate roads accident last year. A survey done by Amend indicates that Pupil mode of transport in Dar es salaam schools are by walk 87%, bus 9.21%, car 1.32%, motorcycle 0.88%, 3-wheeler 0.24%, train 0.14%, bicycle 0.10%, ferry 0.07%, and combined mode 0.44%. According to this study, majority of school children’s uses walking mode, most of school children’s agreed to continue using walking mode and request to have signs for traffic control during crossing road like STOP sign and CHILD CROSSING sign for safe crossing. Because children not only sit inside this buses (Daladala) but also they walk in a group to/from school, and few (33.2%) parents or adults are willing to supervise their children’s during working to school while 50% of parents agree to let their children walking alone to school if the public transport started from nearby street. The study used both qualitative and quantitative methods of research by conducting physical surveying on sample districts. The main objectives of this research are to carries out all factors affecting school children’s when they use public road, to promote and encourage the safe use of public road by all classes especially pupil or student through the circulation of advice, information and knowledge gain from research and to recommends future direction for the developments for road design or plan to vulnerable users. The research also critically analyze the problems causing death and injuries to school children’s in Dar es Salaam Region. This study determines the relationship between road traffic accidents and factors, such as socio-economic, status, and distance from school, number of sibling, behavioral problems, knowledge and attitudes of public and their parents towards road safety and parent educational study traffic. The study comes up with some of recommendations including Infrastructure Improvements like, safe footpaths, Safe crossings, Speed humps, Speed limits, Road signs. However, Planners and policymakers wishing to increase walking and cycling among children need to consider options that address distance constraints, the land use planners and transport professionals use better understanding of the various factors that affect children’s choices of school travel mode, results suggest that all school travel attributes should be considered during school location.

Keywords: accidents, childrens, school, Tanzania

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

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The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

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Authors: Teesta Dey

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Integrated Transport development with proper traffic management leads to sustainable growth of any urban sphere. Appropriate mass transport planning is essential for the populous cities in third world countries like India. The exponential growth of motor vehicles with unplanned road network is now the common feature of major urban centres in India. Kolkata, the third largest mega city in India, is not an exception of it. The imbalance between demand and supply of unplanned transport services in this city is manifested in the high economic and environmental costs borne by the associated society. With the passage of time, the growth and extent of passenger demand for rapid urban transport has outstripped proper infrastructural planning and causes severe transport problems in the overall urban realm. Hence Kolkata stands out in the world as one of the most crisis-ridden metropolises. The urban transport crisis of this city involves severe traffic congestion, the disparity in mass transport services on changing peripheral land uses, route overlapping, lowering of travel speed and faulty implementation of governmental plans as mostly induced by rapid growth of private vehicles on limited road space with huge carbon footprint. Therefore the paper will critically analyze the extant road network pattern for improving regional connectivity and accessibility, assess the degree of congestion, identify the deviation from demand and supply balance and finally evaluate the emerging alternate transport options as promoted by the government. For this purpose, linear, nodal and spatial transport network have been assessed based on certain selected indices viz. Road Degree, Traffic Volume, Shimbel Index, Direct Bus Connectivity, Average Travel and Waiting Tine Indices, Route Variety, Service Frequency, Bus Intensity, Concentration Analysis, Delay Rate, Quality of Traffic Transmission, Lane Length Duration Index and Modal Mix. Total 20 Traffic Intersection Points (TIPs) have been selected for the measurement of nodal accessibility. Critical Congestion Zones (CCZs) are delineated based on one km buffer zones of each TIP for congestion pattern analysis. A total of 480 bus routes are assessed for identifying the deficiency in network planning. Apart from bus services, the combined effects of other mass and para transit modes, containing metro rail, auto, cab and ferry services, are also analyzed. Based on systematic random sampling method, a total of 1500 daily urban passengers’ perceptions were studied for checking the ground realities. The outcome of this research identifies the spatial disparity among the 15 boroughs of the city with severe route overlapping and congestion problem. North and Central Kolkata-based mass transport services exceed the transport strength of south and peripheral Kolkata. Faulty infrastructural condition, service inadequacy, economic loss and workers’ inefficiency are the most dominant reasons behind the defective mass transport network plan. Hence there is an urgent need to revive the extant road based mass transport system of this city by implementing a holistic management approach by upgrading traffic infrastructure, designing new roads, better cooperation among different mass transport agencies, better coordination of transport and changing land use policies, large increase in funding and finally general passengers’ awareness.

Keywords: carbon footprint, critical congestion zones, direct bus connectivity, integrated transport development

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