Search results for: Bayesian theory

Authors: Pan Long, Bi Dongjie, Li Xifeng, Xie Yongle

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The near-field synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging is an advanced nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDT&E) technique. This paper investigates the complex-valued signal processing related to the near-field SAR imaging system, where the measurement data turns out to be noncircular and improper, meaning that the complex-valued data is correlated to its complex conjugate. Furthermore, we discover that the degree of impropriety of the measurement data and that of the target image can be highly correlated in near-field SAR imaging. Based on these observations, A modified generalized sparse Bayesian learning algorithm is proposed, taking impropriety and noncircularity into account. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides performance gain, with the help of noncircular assumption on the signals.

Keywords: complex-valued signal processing, synthetic aperture radar, 2-D radar imaging, compressive sensing, sparse Bayesian learning

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Authors: Elena Carcano, James Ball

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This work details the strategies adopted by the Italian Water Utilities during the distribution of water in emergency conditions which glide from earthquakes and droughts to floods and fires. Several water bureaus located over the national territory have been interviewed, and the collected information has been used in a database of potential interventions to be taken. The work discusses the actions adopted by water utilities. These are generally prioritized in order to minimize the social, temporal, and economic burden that the damaged and nearby areas need to support. Actions are defined relying on the Bayesian Network Approach, which constitutes the hard core of any decision support system. The Bayesian Networks give answers to interventions to real and most likely risky cases. The added value of this research consists in supplying the National Bureau, namely Protezione Civile, in charge of managing havoc and catastrophic situations with a univocal plot outline so as to be able to handle actions uniformly at the expense of different local laws or contradictory customs which squander any recovery conditions, proper technical service, and economic aids. The paper is organized as follows: in section 1, the introduction is stated; section 2 provides a brief discussion of BNNs (Bayesian Networks), section 3 introduces the adopted methodology; and in the last sections, results are presented, and conclusions are drawn.

Keywords: hierarchical process, strategic plan, water emergency conditions, water supply

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Authors: L. Melzerová, T. Janda, M. Šejnoha, J. Šejnoha

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Two finite element (FEM) models are presented in this paper to address the random nature of the response of glued timber structures made of wood segments with variable elastic moduli evaluated from 3600 indentation measurements. This total database served to create the same number of ensembles as was the number of segments in the tested beam. Statistics of these ensembles were then assigned to given segments of beams and the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was called to perform 100 simulations resulting into the ensemble of 100 deflections subjected to statistical evaluation. Here, a detailed geometrical arrangement of individual segments in the laminated beam was considered in the construction of two-dimensional FEM model subjected to in four-point bending to comply with the laboratory tests. Since laboratory measurements of local elastic moduli may in general suffer from a significant experimental error, it appears advantageous to exploit the full scale measurements of timber beams, i.e. deflections, to improve their prior distributions with the help of the Bayesian statistical method. This, however, requires an efficient computational model when simulating the laboratory tests numerically. To this end, a simplified model based on Mindlin’s beam theory was established. The improved posterior distributions show that the most significant change of the Young’s modulus distribution takes place in laminae in the most strained zones, i.e. in the top and bottom layers within the beam center region. Posterior distributions of moduli of elasticity were subsequently utilized in the 2D FEM model and compared with the original simulations.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, FEM, four point bending test, laminated timber, parameter estimation, prior and posterior distribution, Young’s modulus

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Arne Fagerstrom, Gary Cunningham, Fredrik Hartwig

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In this paper, a theory of sustainable enterprises, sustainable enterprise theory (SET), is developed. The sustainable enterprise theory can only be a valid theory if knowledge about life and nature is complete. Knowledge limitations should not stop enterprises from doing business with a goal of better long-term life on earth. Life demands stewardship of the resources used during one’s lifetime. This paper develops a model influenced by (the classical) enterprise theory and resource theory that includes more than money in the business activities of an enterprise. The sustainable enterprise theory is then used in an analysis of accountability and in discussions about sustainable businesses.

Keywords: sustainable business, sustainability reporting, sustainable values, theory of the firm

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Authors: Eu Tteum Ha, Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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The smart home environment backed up by IoT (internet of things) technologies enables intelligent services based on the awareness of the situation a user is currently in. One of the convenient sensors for recognizing the situations within a home is the smart meter that can monitor the status of each electrical appliance in real time. This paper aims at learning a Bayesian network that models the causal relationship between the user situations and the status of the electrical appliances. Using such a network, we can infer the current situation based on the observed status of the appliances. However, learning the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the network requires many training examples that cannot be obtained unless the user situations are closely monitored by any means. This paper proposes a method for learning the CPT entries of the network relying only on the user feedbacks generated occasionally. In our case study with a robot vacuum cleaner, the feedback comes in whenever the user gives an order to the robot adversely from its preprogrammed setting. Given a network with randomly initialized CPT entries, our proposed method uses this feedback information to adjust relevant CPT entries in the direction of increasing the probability of recognizing the desired situations. Simulation experiments show that our method can rapidly improve the recognition performance of the Bayesian network using a relatively small number of feedbacks.

Keywords: Bayesian network, IoT, learning, situation -awareness, smart home

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Authors: V. Makis, L. Jafari

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In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart.

Keywords: Bayesian u-chart, economic design, optimal stopping, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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Authors: Nasar Aldian Ambark Shashoa

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Classification with a dimension reduction based on Bayesian approach is proposed in this paper . The first step is to generate a sample (parameter) of fault-free mode class and faulty mode class. The second, in order to obtain good classification performance, a selection of important features is done with the discrete karhunen-loeve expansion. Next, the Bayes test for minimum error is used to classify the classes. Finally, the results for simulated data demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed procedure.

Keywords: analytical redundancy, fault detection, feature extraction, Bayesian approach

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Authors: Aghbalou Nihad, Charki Abderafi, Saida Rahali, Reklaoui Kamal

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Maximize the benefit from the wind energy potential is the most interest of the wind power stakeholders. As a result, the wind tower size is radically increasing. Nevertheless, choosing an appropriate wind turbine for a selected site require an accurate estimate of vertical wind profile. It is also imperative from cost and maintenance strategy point of view. Then, installing tall towers or even more expensive devices such as LIDAR or SODAR raises the costs of a wind power project. Various models were developed coming within this framework. However, they suffer from complexity, generalization and lacks accuracy. In this work, we aim to investigate the ability of neural network trained using the Bayesian Regularization technique to estimate wind speed profile up to height of 100 m based on knowledge of wind speed lower heights. Results show that the proposed approach can achieve satisfactory predictions and proof the suitability of the proposed method for generating wind speed profile and probability distributions based on knowledge of wind speed at lower heights.

Keywords: bayesian regularization, neural network, wind shear, accuracy

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Authors: Shahadut Hossain

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Measurement errors in continuous covariates and/or misclassifications in categorical covariates are common in epidemiological studies. Regression analysis ignoring such mismeasurements seriously biases the estimated main and interaction effects of covariates on the outcome of interest. Thus, adjustments for such mismeasurements are necessary. In this research, we propose a Bayesian parametric framework for eliminating deleterious impacts of covariate mismeasurements in logistic regression. The proposed adjustment method is unified and thus can be applied to any generalized linear and non-linear regression models. Furthermore, adjustment for covariate mismeasurements requires validation data usually in the form of either gold standard measurements or replicates of the mismeasured covariates on a subset of the study population. Initial investigation shows that adequacy of such adjustment depends on the sizes of main and validation samples, especially when prevalences of the categorical covariates are low. Thus, we investigate the impact of main and validation sample sizes on the adjusted estimates, and provide a general guideline about these sample sizes based on simulation studies.

Keywords: measurement errors, misclassification, mismeasurement, validation sample, Bayesian adjustment

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Authors: Pauline E. Ngo-Henha

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Existing turnover intention theories are reviewed in this paper. This review was conducted with the help of the search keyword “turnover intention theories” in Google Scholar during the month of July 2017. These theories include: The Theory of Organizational Equilibrium (TOE), Social Exchange Theory, Job Embeddedness Theory, Herzberg’s Two-Factor Theory, the Resource-Based View, Equity Theory, Human Capital Theory, and the Expectancy Theory. One of the limitations of this review paper is that data were only collected from Google Scholar where many papers were sometimes not freely accessible. However, this paper attempts to contribute to the research in clarifying the distinction between theories and models in the context of turnover intention.

Keywords: Literature Review, Theory, Turnover, Turnover intention

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Authors: Elyes Zarrouk, Yassine Benayed, Faiez Gargouri

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This paper presents a new hybrid model for isolated Arabic words recognition. To do this, we apply Support Vectors Machine (SVM) as an estimator of posterior probabilities within the Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN). This paper deals a comparative study between DBN and SVM/DBN systems for multi-dialect isolated Arabic words. Performance using SVM/DBN is found to exceed that of DBNs trained on an identical task, giving higher recognition accuracy for four different Arabic dialects. In fact, the average of recognition rates for the four dialects with SVM/DBN was 87.67% while 83.01% with DBN.

Keywords: dynamic Bayesian networks, hybrid models, supports vectors machine, Arabic isolated words

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Authors: Shokoufeh Abrisham, Seyed Mahmoud Hossieni, Elham Pishbin

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In this paper, a hybrid method based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BNs) are employed to evaluate the team performance quality of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) procedures in emergency department. According to American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines, a category relying on staff action leading to clinical incidents and also some discussions with emergency medicine experts, a fault tree model for ACLS procedure is obtained based on the human performance. The obtained FTA model is converted into BNs, and some different scenarios are defined to demonstrate the efficiency and flexibility of the presented model of BNs. Also, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to indicate the effects of team leader presence and uncertainty knowledge of experts on the quality of ACLS. The proposed model based on BNs shows that how the results of risk analysis can be closed to reality comparing to the obtained results based on only FTA in medical procedures.

Keywords: advanced cardiac life support, fault tree analysis, Bayesian belief networks, numan performance, healthcare systems

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Authors: Azam Abkhiz, Abolghasem Nasir

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To achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market, it is necessary to provide and improve customer satisfaction and Loyalty. To reach this objective, companies need to identify and analyze their customers. Thus, it is critical to measure the level of customer satisfaction and Loyalty very carefully. This study attempts to build a conceptual model to provide clear insights of customer loyalty. Using Bayesian networks (BNs), a model is proposed to evaluate customer loyalty and its consequences, such as repurchase and positive word-of-mouth. BN is a probabilistic approach that predicts the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The most relevant determinants of customer loyalty are identified by the literature review. Perceived value, service quality, trust, corporate image, satisfaction, and switching costs are the most important variables that explain customer loyalty. The data are collected by use of a questionnaire-based survey from 1430 customers of a home appliances manufacturer in Iran. Four scenarios and sensitivity analyses are performed to run and analyze the impact of different determinants on customer loyalty. The proposed model allows businesses to not only set their targets but proactively manage their customer behaviors as well.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, Bayesian networks, home appliances industry

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Authors: André Jesus, Yanjie Zhu, Irwanda Laory

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Structural health monitoring is one of the most promising technologies concerning aversion of structural risk and economic savings. Analysts often have to deal with a considerable variety of uncertainties that arise during a monitoring process. Namely the widespread application of numerical models (model-based) is accompanied by a widespread concern about quantifying the uncertainties prevailing in their use. Some of these uncertainties are related with the deterministic nature of the model (code uncertainty) others with the variability of its inputs (parameter uncertainty) and the discrepancy between a model/experiment (systematic uncertainty). The actual process always exhibits a random behaviour (observation error) even when conditions are set identically (residual variation). Bayesian inference assumes that parameters of a model are random variables with an associated PDF, which can be inferred from experimental data. However in many Bayesian methods the determination of systematic uncertainty can be problematic. In this work systematic uncertainty is associated with a discrepancy function. The numerical model and discrepancy function are approximated by Gaussian processes (surrogate model). Finally, to avoid the computational burden of a fully Bayesian approach the parameters that characterise the Gaussian processes were estimated in a four stage process (modular Bayesian approach). The proposed methodology has been successfully applied on fields such as geoscience, biomedics, particle physics but never on the SHM context. This approach considerably reduces the computational burden; although the extent of the considered uncertainties is lower (second order effects are neglected). To successfully identify the considered uncertainties this formulation was extended to consider multiple responses. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on a small scale aluminium bridge structure, subjected to a thermal expansion due to infrared heaters. Comparison of its performance with responses measured at different points of the structure and associated degrees of identifiability is also carried out. A numerical FEM model of the structure was developed and the stiffness from its supports is considered as a parameter to calibrate. Results show that the modular Bayesian approach performed best when responses of the same type had the lowest spatial correlation. Based on previous literature, using different types of responses (strain, acceleration, and displacement) should also improve the identifiability problem. Uncertainties due to parametric variability, observation error, residual variability, code variability and systematic uncertainty were all recovered. For this example the algorithm performance was stable and considerably quicker than Bayesian methods that account for the full extent of uncertainties. Future research with real-life examples is required to fully access the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: bayesian, calibration, numerical model, system identification, systematic uncertainty, Gaussian process

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Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

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A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: Xiping Wang，Shuran Yao, Liqin Dai

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Many studies report the winter is getting warmer and the minimum air temperature is obviously rising as the important climate warming evidences. The exacerbated air temperature fluctuation tending to bring more severe weather variation is another important consequence of recent climate change which induced more disasters to crop growth in quite a certain regions. Hebei Province is an important winter wheat growing province in North of China that recently endures more winter freezing injury influencing the local winter wheat crop management. A winter wheat freezing injury assessment Bayesian Network framework was established for the objectives of estimating, assessing and predicting winter wheat freezing disasters in Hebei Province. In this framework, the freezing disasters was classified as three severity degrees (SI) among all the three types of freezing, i.e., freezing caused by severe cold in anytime in the winter, long extremely cold duration in the winter and freeze-after-thaw in early season after winter. The factors influencing winter wheat freezing SI include time of freezing occurrence, growth status of seedlings, soil moisture, winter wheat variety, the longitude of target region and, the most variable climate factors. The climate factors included in this framework are daily mean and range of air temperature, extreme minimum temperature and number of days during a severe cold weather process, the number of days with the temperature lower than the critical temperature values, accumulated negative temperature in a potential freezing event. The Bayesian Network model was evaluated using actual weather data and crop records at selected sites in Hebei Province using real data. With the multi-stage influences from the various factors, the forecast and assessment of the event-based target variables, freezing injury occurrence and its damage to winter wheat production, were shown better scoped by Bayesian Network model.

Keywords: bayesian networks, climatic change, freezing Injury, winter wheat

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Authors: Rashi Bhalla, Russel Pears, M. Asif Naeem

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In this 'Information Explosion Era' analyzing data 'a critical commodity' and mining knowledge from vertically distributed data stream incurs huge communication cost. However, an effort to decrease the communication in the distributed environment has an adverse influence on the classification accuracy; therefore, a research challenge lies in maintaining a balance between transmission cost and accuracy. This paper proposes a method based on Bayesian inference to reduce the communication volume in a heterogeneous distributed environment while retaining prediction accuracy. Our experimental evaluation reveals that a significant reduction in communication can be achieved across a diverse range of dataset types.

Keywords: big data, bayesian inference, distributed data stream mining, heterogeneous-distributed data

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Authors: Yayun Hsu, Henry Horng-Shing Lu

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This paper proposes a data-driven, biology-inspired neural segmentation method of 3D drosophila Brainbow images. We use Bayesian Sequential Partitioning algorithm for probabilistic modeling, which can be used to detect somas and to eliminate cross talk effects. This work attempts to develop an automatic methodology for neuron image segmentation, which nowadays still lacks a complete solution due to the complexity of the image. The proposed method does not need any predetermined, risk-prone thresholds since biological information is inherently included in the image processing procedure. Therefore, it is less sensitive to variations in neuron morphology; meanwhile, its flexibility would be beneficial for tracing the intertwining structure of neurons.

Keywords: brainbow, 3D imaging, image segmentation, neuron morphology, biological data mining, non-parametric learning

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Authors: Fally Titikpina, Abderafi Charki, Antoine Caucheteux, David Bigaud

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The building sector is one of the largest energy consumer with about 40% of the final energy consumption in the European Union. Ensuring building energy performance is of scientific, technological and sociological matter. To assess a building energy performance, the consumption being predicted or estimated during the design stage is compared with the measured consumption when the building is operational. When valuing this performance, many buildings show significant differences between the calculated and measured consumption. In order to assess the performance accurately and ensure the thermal efficiency of the building, it is necessary to evaluate the uncertainties involved not only in measurement but also those induced by the propagation of dynamic and static input data in the model being used. The evaluation of measurement uncertainty is based on both the knowledge about the measurement process and the input quantities which influence the result of measurement. Measurement uncertainty can be evaluated within the framework of conventional statistics presented in the \textit{Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty (GUM)} as well as by Bayesian Statistical Theory (BST). Another choice is the use of numerical methods like Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). In this paper, we proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated to the use of a simplified model for the estimation of the energy consumption of a given building. A detailed review and discussion of these three approaches (GUM, MCS and BST) is given. Therefore, an office building has been monitored and multiple sensors have been mounted on candidate locations to get required data. The monitored zone is composed of six offices and has an overall surface of 102 $m^2$. Temperature data, electrical and heating consumption, windows opening and occupancy rate are the features for our research work.

Keywords: building energy performance, uncertainty evaluation, GUM, bayesian approach, monte carlo method

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Ioanna Taouki, Marie Lallier, David Soto

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Metacognition refers to the capacity to reflect upon our own cognitive processes. Although there is an ongoing discussion in the literature on the role of metacognition in learning and academic achievement, little is known about its neurodevelopmental trajectories in early childhood, when children begin to receive formal education in reading. Here, we evaluate the metacognitive ability, estimated under a recently developed Signal Detection Theory model, of a cohort of children aged between 6 and 7 (N=60), who performed three two-alternative-forced-choice tasks (two linguistic: lexical decision task, visual attention span task, and one non-linguistic: emotion recognition task) including trial-by-trial confidence judgements. Our study has three aims. First, we investigated how metacognitive ability (i.e., how confidence ratings track accuracy in the task) relates to performance in general standardized tasks related to students' reading and general cognitive abilities using Spearman's and Bayesian correlation analysis. Second, we assessed whether or not young children recruit common mechanisms supporting metacognition across the different task domains or whether there is evidence for domain-specific metacognition at this early stage of development. This was done by examining correlations in metacognitive measures across different task domains and evaluating cross-task covariance by applying a hierarchical Bayesian model. Third, using robust linear regression and Bayesian regression models, we assessed whether metacognitive ability in this early stage is related to the longitudinal learning of children in a linguistic and a non-linguistic task. Notably, we did not observe any association between students’ reading skills and metacognitive processing in this early stage of reading acquisition. Some evidence consistent with domain-general metacognition was found, with significant positive correlations between metacognitive efficiency between lexical and emotion recognition tasks and substantial covariance indicated by the Bayesian model. However, no reliable correlations were found between metacognitive performance in the visual attention span and the remaining tasks. Remarkably, metacognitive ability significantly predicted children's learning in linguistic and non-linguistic domains a year later. These results suggest that metacognitive skill may be dissociated to some extent from general (i.e., language and attention) abilities and further stress the importance of creating educational programs that foster students’ metacognitive ability as a tool for long term learning. More research is crucial to understand whether these programs can enhance metacognitive ability as a transferable skill across distinct domains or whether unique domains should be targeted separately.

Keywords: confidence ratings, development, metacognitive efficiency, reading acquisition

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Authors: Vahid Bayrami Rad

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In this research, common methods and techniques have been investigated with a focus on intelligent fault finding and monitoring systems in the oil industry. In fact, remote and intelligent control methods are considered a necessity for implementing various operations in the oil industry, but benefiting from the knowledge extracted from countless data generated with the help of data mining algorithms. It is a avoid way to speed up the operational process for monitoring and troubleshooting in today's big oil companies. Therefore, by comparing data mining algorithms and checking the efficiency and structure and how these algorithms respond in different conditions, The proposed (Bayesian) algorithm using data clustering and their analysis and data evaluation using a colored Petri net has provided an applicable and dynamic model from the point of view of reliability and response time. Therefore, by using this method, it is possible to achieve a dynamic and consistent model of the remote control system and prevent the occurrence of leakage in oil pipelines and refineries and reduce costs and human and financial errors. Statistical data The data obtained from the evaluation process shows an increase in reliability, availability and high speed compared to other previous methods in this proposed method.

Keywords: wireless sensors, petroleum equipment troubleshooting, Bayesian algorithm, colored Petri net, rapid miner, data mining-reliability

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

Abstract:

Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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Authors: Kong Ngai Pei

Abstract:

The argument scheme approach to argumentation has two components. One is to identify the recurrent patterns of inferences used in everyday discourse. The second is to devise critical questions to evaluate the inferences in these patterns. Although this approach is intuitive and contains many insightful ideas, it has been noted to be not free of problems. One is that due to its disavowing the probability calculus, it cannot give the exact strength of an inference. In order to tackle this problem, thereby paving the way to a more complete normative account of argument strength, it has been proposed, the most promising way is to combine the scheme-based approach with Bayesian networks (BNs). This paper pursues this line of thought, attempting to combine three common schemes, Appeal to Ignorance, Composition, and Division, with BNs. In the first part, it is argued that most (if not all) formulations of the critical questions corresponding to these schemes in the current argumentation literature are incomplete and not very informative. To remedy these flaws, more thorough and precise formulations of these questions are provided. In the second part, how to use graphical idioms (e.g. measurement and synthesis idioms) to translate the schemes as well as their corresponding critical questions to graphical structure of BNs, and how to define probability tables of the nodes using functions of various sorts are shown. In the final part, it is argued that many misuses of these schemes, traditionally called fallacies with the same names as the schemes, can indeed be adequately accounted for by the BN models proposed in this paper.

Keywords: appeal to ignorance, argument schemes, Bayesian networks, composition, division

Procedia PDF Downloads 253