Search results for: cardio-metabolic risk factors
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 14981

Search results for: cardio-metabolic risk factors

12491 Young People, Well-Being and Risk-Taking: Doing Gender in Relation to Health and Heavy Drinking

Authors: Jukka Torronen

Abstract:

Introduction: Alcohol consumption and health are areas where gender binaries have persisted. By intoxication, men have displayed their masculinity as strong, while matters of health have formed a feminine undertaking. However, in recent years young people’s alcohol consumption has declined and been challenged by competing activities, including the rising health trend. This makes the comparison of young people’s masculinities and femininities in health and heavy drinking an important case to study. Methods: The data consists of semi-structured interviews about alcohol, health, and leisure activities among young people aged between 15 and 19 (N=56). By drawing on Butler’s work on “gender as performative” and Connell’s understanding of gendered identities as “configurations of practices,” the paper analyzes how the interviewees are doing masculinities and femininities in relation to health and heavy drinking, and how their gender performances are dichotomous, naturalized and contested. Results: The interviewees approach health from two perspectives, which are called “social health” and “physical health” approaches. They are both gendered. Especially in the “social health” approach, in which intoxication and risk-taking are used to increase well-being, the interviewees perform stereotypical gender binaries. The interviewees’ gendered performances in the “physical health” approach show more variability and are more reflective and critical. In contrast to intoxication, in relation to which the interviewees perform biologically driven gender binaries, they perform culturally driven genders in relation to health. Conclusions: Health seems to provide for the interviewees a field in which they feel more liberated to perform flexible and alternative genders.

Keywords: young people, decline in drinking, qualitative interviews, gender, health, risk-taking

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12490 Delimitation of the Perimeters of PR Otection of the Wellfield in the City of Adrar, Sahara of Algeria through the Used Wyssling’s Method

Authors: Ferhati Ahmed, Fillali Ahmed, Oulhadj Younsi

Abstract:

delimitation of the perimeters of protection in the catchment area of the city of Adrar, which are established around the sites for the collection of water intended for human consumption of drinking water, with the objective of ensuring the preservation and reducing the risks of point and accidental pollution of the resource (Continental Intercalar groundwater of the Northern Sahara of Algeria). This wellfield is located in the northeast of the city of Adrar, it covers an area of 132.56 km2 with 21 Drinking Water Supply wells (DWS), pumping a total flow of approximately 13 Hm3/year. The choice of this wellfield is based on the favorable hydrodynamic characteristics and their location in relation to the agglomeration. The vulnerability to pollution of this slick is very high because the slick is free and suffers from the absence of a protective layer. In recent years, several factors have been introduced around the field that can affect the quality of this precious resource, including the presence of a strong centre for domestic waste and agricultural and industrial activities. Thus, its sustainability requires the implementation of protection perimeters. The objective of this study is to set up three protection perimeters: immediate, close and remote. The application of the Wyssling method makes it possible to calculate the transfer time (t) of a drop of groundwater located at any point in the aquifer up to the abstraction and thus to define isochrones which in turn delimit each type of perimeter, 40 days for the nearer and 100 days for the farther away. Special restrictions are imposed for all activities depending on the distance of the catchment. The application of this method to the Adrar city catchment field showed that the close and remote protection perimeters successively occupy areas of 51.14 km2 and 92.9 km2. Perimeters are delimited by geolocated markers, 40 and 46 markers successively. These results show that the areas defined as "near protection perimeter" are free from activities likely to present a risk to the quality of the water used. On the other hand, on the areas defined as "remote protection perimeter," there is some agricultural and industrial activities that may present an imminent risk. A rigorous control of these activities and the restriction of the type of products applied in industrial and agricultural is imperative.

Keywords: continental intercalaire, drinking water supply, groundwater, perimeter of protection, wyssling method

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12489 The SEMONT Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Environmental EMF Pollution

Authors: Dragan Kljajic, Nikola Djuric, Karolina Kasas-Lazetic, Danka Antic

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Wireless communications have been expanded very fast in recent decades. This technology relies on an extensive network of base stations and antennas, using radio frequency signals to transmit information. Devices that use wireless communication, while offering various services, basically act as sources of non-ionizing electromagnetic fields (EMF). Such devices are permanently present in the human vicinity and almost constantly radiate, causing EMF pollution of the environment. This fact has initiated development of modern systems for observation of the EMF pollution, as well as for risk assessment. This paper presents the Serbian electromagnetic field monitoring network – SEMONT, designed for automated, remote and continuous broadband monitoring of EMF in the environment. Measurement results of the SEMONT monitoring at one of the test locations, within the main campus of the University of Novi Sad, are presented and discussed, along with corresponding exposure assessment of the general population, regarding the Serbian legislation.

Keywords: EMF monitoring, exposure assessment, sensor nodes, wireless network

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12488 The Role of Parental Stress and Emotion Regulation in Responding to Children’s Expression of Negative Emotion

Authors: Lizel Bertie, Kim Johnston

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Parental emotion regulation plays a central role in the socialisation of emotion, especially when teaching young children to cope with negative emotions. Despite evidence which shows non-supportive parental responses to children’s expression of negative emotions has implications for the social and emotional development of the child, few studies have investigated risk factors which impact parental emotion socialisation processes. The current study aimed to explore the extent to which parental stress contributes to both difficulties in parental emotion regulation and non-supportive parental responses to children’s expression of negative emotions. In addition, the study examined whether parental use of expressive suppression as an emotion regulation strategy facilitates the influence of parental stress on non-supportive responses by testing the relations in a mediation model. A sample of 140 Australian adults, who identified as parents with children aged 5 to 10 years, completed an online questionnaire. The measures explored recent symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress, the use of expressive suppression as an emotion regulation strategy, and hypothetical parental responses to scenarios related to children’s expression of negative emotions. A mediated regression indicated that parents who reported higher levels of stress also reported higher levels of expressive suppression as an emotion regulation strategy and increased use of non-supportive responses in relation to young children’s expression of negative emotions. These findings suggest that parents who experience heightened symptoms of stress are more likely to both suppress their emotions in parent-child interaction and engage in non-supportive responses. Furthermore, higher use of expressive suppression strongly predicted the use of non-supportive responses, despite the presence of parental stress. Contrary to expectation, no indirect effect of stress on non-supportive responses was observed via expressive suppression. The findings from the study suggest that parental stress may become a more salient manifestation of psychological distress in a sub-clinical population of parents while contributing to impaired parental responses. As such, the study offers support for targeting overarching factors such as difficulties in parental emotion regulation and stress management, not only as an intervention for parental psychological distress, but also the detection and prevention of maladaptive parenting practices.

Keywords: emotion regulation, emotion socialisation, expressive suppression, non-supportive responses, parental stress

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12487 Modelling of Factors Affecting Bond Strength of Fibre Reinforced Polymer Externally Bonded to Timber and Concrete

Authors: Abbas Vahedian, Rijun Shrestha, Keith Crews

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In recent years, fibre reinforced polymers as applications of strengthening materials have received significant attention by civil engineers and environmentalists because of their excellent characteristics. Currently, these composites have become a mainstream technology for strengthening of infrastructures such as steel, concrete and more recently, timber and masonry structures. However, debonding is identified as the main problem which limit the full utilisation of the FRP material. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of factors affecting bond strength of FRP-to-concrete and timber bonded interface has been conducted. A novel theoretical method through regression analysis has been established to evaluate these factors. Results of proposed model are then assessed with results of pull-out tests and satisfactory comparisons are achieved between measured failure loads (R2 = 0.83, P < 0.0001) and the predicted loads (R2 = 0.78, P < 0.0001).

Keywords: debonding, fibre reinforced polymers (FRP), pull-out test, stepwise regression analysis

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12486 Using GIS for Assessment and Modelling of Oil Spill Risk at Vulnerable Coastal Resources: Of Misratah Coast, Libya

Authors: Abduladim Maitieg

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The oil manufacture is one of the main productive activities in Libya and has a massive infrastructure, including offshore drilling and exploration and wide oil export platform sites that located in coastal area. There is a threat to marine and coastal area of oil spills is greatest in those sites with a high spills comes from urban and industry, parallel to that, monitoring oil spills and risk emergency strategy is weakness, An approach for estimating a coastal resources vulnerability to oil spills is presented based on abundance, environmental and Scio-economic importance, distance to oil spill resources and oil risk likelihood. As many as 10 coastal resources were selected for oil spill assessment at the coast. This study aims to evaluate, determine and establish vulnerable coastal resource maps and estimating the rate of oil spill comes for different oil spill resources in Misratah marine environment. In the study area there are two type of oil spill resources, major oil resources come from offshore oil industries which are 96 km from the Coast and Loading/Uploading oil platform. However, the miner oil resources come from urban sewage pipes and fish ports. In order to analyse the collected database, the Geographic information system software has been used to identify oil spill location, to map oil tracks in front of study area, and developing seasonal vulnerable costal resources maps. This work shows that there is a differential distribution of the degree of vulnerability to oil spills along the coastline, with values ranging from high vulnerability and low vulnerability, and highlights the link between oil spill movement and coastal resources vulnerability. The results of assessment found most of costal freshwater spring sites are highly vulnerable to oil spill due to their location on the intertidal zone and their close to proximity to oil spills recourses such as Zreag coast. Furthermore, the Saltmarsh coastline is highly vulnerable to oil spill risk due to characterisation as it contains a nesting area of sea turtles and feeding places for migratory birds and the . Oil will reach the coast in winter season according to oil spill movement. Coastal tourist beaches in the north coast are considered as highly vulnerable to oil spill due to location and closeness to oil spill resources.

Keywords: coastal recourses vulnerability, oil spill trajectory, gnome software, Misratah coast- Libya, GIS

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12485 Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Anti-Debris Flow Engineering Constructed to Reduce the Risk of Expected Debris Flow in the River Mletiskhevi by Computer Program RAMMS

Authors: Sopio Gogilava, Goga Chakhaia, Levan Tsulukidze, Zurab Laoshvili, Irina Khubulava, Shalva Bosikashvili, Teimuraz Gugushvili

Abstract:

Geoinformatics systems (GIS) integrated computer program RAMMS is widely used for forecasting debris flows and accordingly for the determination of anticipating risks with 85% accuracy. In view of the above, the work introduces new capabilities of the computer program RAMMS, which evaluates the effectiveness of anti-debris flow engineering construction, namely: the possibility of decreasing the expected velocity, kinetic energy, and output cone volume in the Mletiskhevi River. As a result of research has been determined that the anti-debris flow engineering construction designed to reduce the expected debris flow risk in the Mletiskhevi River is an effective environmental protection technology, that's why its introduction is promising.

Keywords: construction, debris flow, geoinformatics systems, program RAMMS

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12484 Exploring the Critical Success Factors of Construction Stakeholders Team Effectiveness

Authors: Olusegun Akinsiku, Olukayode Oyediran, Koleola Odusami

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A construction project is usually made up of a variety of stakeholders whose interests may positively or negatively impact on the outcome of the project execution. The variability of project stakeholders is apparent in their cultural differences, professional background and ethics, and differences in ideas. The need for the effectiveness of construction teams has been investigated as this is an important aspect to meeting client’s expectations in the construction industry. This study adopts a cross-sectional descriptive survey with the purpose of identifying the critical success factors (CSFs) associated with the team effectiveness of construction projects stakeholders, their relationship and the effects on construction project performance. The instrument for data collection was a designed questionnaire which was administered to construction professionals in the construction industry in Lagos State, Nigeria using proportionate stratified sampling. The highest ranked identified CSFs include “team trust”, “esprit de corps among members” and “team cohesiveness”. Using factor analysis and considering the effects of team cohesiveness on project performance, the identified CSFs were categorized into three groups namely cognitive attributes, behavior and processes attributes and affective attributes. All the three groups were observed to have a strong correlation with project performance. The findings of this study are useful in helping construction stakeholders benchmark the team effectiveness factors that will guarantee project success.

Keywords: construction, critical success factors, performance, stakeholders, team effectiveness

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12483 Drug Susceptibility and Genotypic Assessment of Mycobacterial Isolates from Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients in North East Ethiopia

Authors: Minwuyelet Maru, Solomon Habtemariam, Endalamaw Gadissa, Abraham Aseffa

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Background: Tuberculosis is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. The burden of TB is aggravated by emergence and expansion of drug resistant tuberculosis and different lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) have been reported in many parts of the country. Describing strains of Mycobacterial isolates and drug susceptibility pattern is necessary. Method: Sputum samples were collected from smear positive pulmonary TB patients age >= 7 years between October 1, 2012 to September 30, 2013 and Mycobacterial strains isolated on Loweensten Jensen (LJ) media. Each strain was characterized by deletion typing and Spoligotyping. Drug sensitivity testing was determined with the indirect proportion method using Middle brook 7H10 media and association to determine possible risk factors to drug resistance was done. Result: A total of 144 smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients were enrolled. The age of participants ranged from 7 to 78 with mean age of 29.22 (±10.77) years. In this study 82.2% (n=97) of the isolates were sensitive to the four first line anti-tuberculosis drugs and resistance to any of the four drugs tested was 17.8% (n=21). A high frequency of any resistance was observed in isoniazid, 13.6%, (n=16) followed by streptomycin, 11.8% (n=14). No significant association of isoniazid resistance with HIV, sex and history of previous TB treatment was observed but there was significant association with age, high between 31-35 years of age (p=0.01). Majority, 89.9% (n=128) of participants were new cases and only 11.1% (n=16) had history of previous TB treatment. No MDR-TB from new cases and 2 MDRTB (13.3%) was isolated from re-treatment cases which was significantly associated with previous TB treatment (p<0.01). Thirty two different types of spoligotype patterns were identified and 74.1% were grouped in to 13 clusters. The dominant strains were SIT 25, 18.1% (n=21), SIT 53, 17.2% (n=20) and SIT 149, 8.6% (n=10). Lineage 4 is the predominant lineage followed by lineage 3 and lineage 7 comprising 65.5% (n=76), 28.4% (n=33) and 6% (n=7) respectively. Majority of strains from lineage 3 and 4 were SIT 25 (63.6%) and SIT 53 (26.3%) whereas SIT 343 was the dominant strain from lineage 7 (71.4%). Conclusion: Wide spread of lineage 3 and lineage 4 of the modern lineage and high number of strain cluster indicates high ongoing transmission. The high proportion resistance to any of the first line anti-tuberculosis drugs may be a potential source in the emergence of MDR-TB. Wide spread of SIT 25 and SIT 53 having a tendency of ease transmission and presence of higher resistance of isoniazid in working and mobile age group, 31-35 years of age may increase risk of drug resistant strains transmission.

Keywords: tuberculosis, drug susceptibility, strain diversity, lineage, Ethiopia, spoligotyping

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12482 Groundwater Influences Wellbeing of Farmers from Semi-Arid Areas of India: Assessment of Subjective Wellbeing

Authors: Seemabahen Dave, Maria Varua, Basant Maheshwari, Roger Packham

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The declining groundwater levels and quality are acknowledged to be affecting the well-being of farmers especially those located in the semi-arid regions where groundwater is the only source of water for domestic and agricultural use. Further, previous studies have identified the need to examine the quality of life of farmers beyond economic parameters and for a shift in setting rural development policy goals to the perspective of beneficiaries. To address these gaps, this paper attempts to ascertain the subjective wellbeing of farmers from two semi-arid regions of India. The study employs the integrated conceptual framework for the assessment of individual and regional subjective wellbeing developed by Larson in 2009 at Australia. The method integrates three domains i.e. society, natural environment and economic services consisting of 37 wellbeing factors. The original set of 27 revised wellbeing factors identified by John Ward is further revised in current study to make it more region specific. Generally, researchers in past studies select factors of wellbeing based on literature and assign the weights arbitrary. In contrast, the present methodology employs a unique approach by asking respondents to identify the factors most important to their wellbeing and assign weights of importance based on their responses. This method minimises the selection bias and assesses the wellbeing from farmers’ perspectives. The primary objectives of this study are to identify key wellbeing attributes and to assess the influence of groundwater on subjective wellbeing of farmers. Findings from 507 farmers from 11 villages of two watershed areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat, India chosen randomly and were surveyed using a structured face-to-face questionnaire are presented in this paper. The results indicate that significant differences exist in the ranking of wellbeing factors at individual, village and regional levels. The top five most important factors in the study areas include electricity, irrigation infrastructure, housing, land ownership, and income. However, respondents are also most dissatisfied with these factors and correspondingly perceive a high influence of groundwater on them. The results thus indicate that intervention related to improvement of groundwater availability and quality will greatly improve the satisfaction level of well-being factors identified by the farmers.

Keywords: groundwater, farmers, semi-arid regions, subjective wellbeing

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12481 Virtual Metrology for Copper Clad Laminate Manufacturing

Authors: Misuk Kim, Seokho Kang, Jehyuk Lee, Hyunchang Cho, Sungzoon Cho

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In semiconductor manufacturing, virtual metrology (VM) refers to methods to predict properties of a wafer based on machine parameters and sensor data of the production equipment, without performing the (costly) physical measurement of the wafer properties (Wikipedia). Additional benefits include avoidance of human bias and identification of important factors affecting the quality of the process which allow improving the process quality in the future. It is however rare to find VM applied to other areas of manufacturing. In this work, we propose to use VM to copper clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing. CCL is a core element of a printed circuit board (PCB) which is used in smartphones, tablets, digital cameras, and laptop computers. The manufacturing of CCL consists of three processes: Treating, lay-up, and pressing. Treating, the most important process among the three, puts resin on glass cloth, heat up in a drying oven, then produces prepreg for lay-up process. In this process, three important quality factors are inspected: Treated weight (T/W), Minimum Viscosity (M/V), and Gel Time (G/T). They are manually inspected, incurring heavy cost in terms of time and money, which makes it a good candidate for VM application. We developed prediction models of the three quality factors T/W, M/V, and G/T, respectively, with process variables, raw material, and environment variables. The actual process data was obtained from a CCL manufacturer. A variety of variable selection methods and learning algorithms were employed to find the best prediction model. We obtained prediction models of M/V and G/T with a high enough accuracy. They also provided us with information on “important” predictor variables, some of which the process engineers had been already aware and the rest of which they had not. They were quite excited to find new insights that the model revealed and set out to do further analysis on them to gain process control implications. T/W did not turn out to be possible to predict with a reasonable accuracy with given factors. The very fact indicates that the factors currently monitored may not affect T/W, thus an effort has to be made to find other factors which are not currently monitored in order to understand the process better and improve the quality of it. In conclusion, VM application to CCL’s treating process was quite successful. The newly built quality prediction model allowed one to reduce the cost associated with actual metrology as well as reveal some insights on the factors affecting the important quality factors and on the level of our less than perfect understanding of the treating process.

Keywords: copper clad laminate, predictive modeling, quality control, virtual metrology

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12480 Health and Climate Changes: "Ippocrate" a New Alert System to Monitor and Identify High Risk

Authors: A. Calabrese, V. F. Uricchio, D. di Noia, S. Favale, C. Caiati, G. P. Maggi, G. Donvito, D. Diacono, S. Tangaro, A. Italiano, E. Riezzo, M. Zippitelli, M. Toriello, E. Celiberti, D. Festa, A. Colaianni

Abstract:

Climate change has a severe impact on human health. There is a vast literature demonstrating temperature increase is causally related to cardiovascular problem and represents a high risk for human health, but there are not study that improve a solution. In this work, it is studied how the clime influenced the human parameter through the analysis of climatic conditions in an area of the Apulia Region: Capurso Municipality. At the same time, medical personnel involved identified a set of variables useful to define an index describing health condition. These scientific studies are the base of an innovative alert system, IPPOCRATE, whose aim is to asses climate risk and share information to population at risk to support prevention and mitigation actions. IPPOCRATE is an e-health system, it is designed to provide technological support to analysis of health risk related to climate and provide tools for prevention and management of critical events. It is the first integrated system of prevention of human risk caused by climate change. IPPOCRATE calculates risk weighting meteorological data with the vulnerability of monitored subjects and uses mobile and cloud technologies to acquire and share information on different data channels. It is composed of four components: Multichannel Hub. Multichannel Hub is the ICT infrastructure used to feed IPPOCRATE cloud with a different type of data coming from remote monitoring devices, or imported from meteorological databases. Such data are ingested, transformed and elaborated in order to be dispatched towards mobile app and VoIP phone systems. IPPOCRATE Multichannel Hub uses open communication protocols to create a set of APIs useful to interface IPPOCRATE with 3rd party applications. Internally, it uses non-relational paradigm to create flexible and highly scalable database. WeHeart and Smart Application The wearable device WeHeart is equipped with sensors designed to measure following biometric variables: heart rate, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, body temperature and blood glucose for diabetic subjects. WeHeart is designed to be easy of use and non-invasive. For data acquisition, users need only to wear it and connect it to Smart Application by Bluetooth protocol. Easy Box was designed to take advantage from new technologies related to e-health care. EasyBox allows user to fully exploit all IPPOCRATE features. Its name, Easy Box, reveals its purpose of container for various devices that may be included depending on user needs. Territorial Registry is the IPPOCRATE web module reserved to medical personnel for monitoring, research and analysis activities. Territorial Registry allows to access to all information gathered by IPPOCRATE using GIS system in order to execute spatial analysis combining geographical data (climatological information and monitored data) with information regarding the clinical history of users and their personal details. Territorial Registry was designed for different type of users: control rooms managed by wide area health facilities, single health care center or single doctor. Territorial registry manages such hierarchy diversifying the access to system functionalities. IPPOCRATE is the first e-Health system focused on climate risk prevention.

Keywords: climate change, health risk, new technological system

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12479 Evaluation of Relationship between Job Stress Dimensions with Occupational Accidents in Industrial Factories in Southwest of Iran

Authors: Ali Ahmadi, Maryam Abbasi, Mohammad Mehdi Parsaei

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Background: Stress in the workplace today is one of the most important public health concerns and a serious threat to the health of the workforce worldwide. Occupational stress can cause occupational events and reduce quality of life. As a result, it has a very undesirable impact on the performance of organizations, companies, and their human resources. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between job stress dimensions and occupational accidents in industrial factories in Southwest Iran. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 200 workers in the summer of 2023 in the Southwest of Iran. To select participants, we used a convenience sampling method. The research tools in this study were the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) stress questionnaire with 35 questions and 7 dimensions and demographic information. A high score on this questionnaire indicates that there is low job stress and pressure. All workers completed the informed consent form. Univariate analysis was performed using chi-square and T-test. Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association of stress-related factors with job accidents in participants. Stata 14.0 software was used for analysis. Results: The mean age of the participants was 39.81(6.36) years. The prevalence of job accidents was 28.0% (95%CI: 21.0, 34.0). Based on the results of the multiple logistic regression with the adjustment of the effect of the confounding variables, one increase in the score of the demand dimension had a protective impact on the risk of job accidents(aOR=0.91,95%CI:0.85-0.95). Additionally, an increase in one of the scores of the managerial support (aOR=0.89, 95% CI: 0.83-0.95) and peer support (aOR=0.76, 95%CI: 0.67-87) dimensions was associated with a lower number of job accidents. Among dimensions, an increase in the score of relationship (aOR=0.89, 95%CI: 0.80-0.98) and change (aOR=0.86, 95%CI: 0.74-0.96) reduced the odds of the accident's occurrence among the workers by 11% and 16%, respectively. However, there was no significant association between role and control dimensions and the job accident (p>0.05). Conclusions: The results show that the prevalence of job accidents was alarmingly high. Our results suggested that an increase in scores of dimensions HSE questioners is significantly associated with a decrease the accident occurrence in the workplace. Therefore, planning to address stressful factors in the workplace seems necessary to prevent occupational accidents.

Keywords: HSE, Iran, job stress occupational accident, safety, occupational health

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12478 Development and Validation of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score in Indian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

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12477 Monitoring Potential Temblor Localities as a Supplemental Risk Control System

Authors: Mikhail Zimin, Svetlana Zimina, Maxim Zimin

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Without question, the basic method of prevention of human and material losses is the provision for adequate strength of constructions. At the same time, seismic load has a stochastic character. So, at all times, there is little danger of earthquake forces exceeding the selected design load. This risk is very low, but the consequences of such events may be extremely serious. Very dangerous are also occasional mistakes in seismic zoning, soil conditions changing before temblors, and failure to take into account hazardous natural phenomena caused by earthquakes. Besides, it is known that temblors detrimentally affect the environmental situation in regions where they occur, resulting in panic and worsening various disease courses. It may lead to mistakes of personnel of hazardous production facilities like the production and distribution of gas and oil, which may provoke severe accidents. In addition, gas and oil pipelines often have long mileage and cross many perilous zones by contrast with buildings. This situation increases the risk of heavy accidents. In such cases, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities would be relevant. Even though the number of successful real-time forecasts of earthquakes is not great, it is well in excess, such as may be under random guessing. Experimental performed time-lapse study and analysis consist of searching seismic, biological, meteorological, and light earthquake precursors, processing such data with the help of fuzzy sets, collecting weather information, utilizing a database of terrain, and computing risk of slope processes under the temblor in a given setting. Works were done in a real-time environment and broadly acceptable results took place. Observations from already in-place seismic recording systems are used. Furthermore, a look back study of precursors of known earthquakes is done. Situations before Ashkhabad, Tashkent, and Haicheng seismic events are analyzed. Fairish findings are obtained. Results of earthquake forecasts can be used for predicting dangerous natural phenomena caused by temblors such as avalanches and mudslides. They may also be utilized for prophylaxis of some diseases and their complications. Relevant software is worked out too. It should be emphasized that such control does not require serious financial expenses and can be performed by a small group of professionals. Thus, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities, including short-term earthquake forecasts and analysis of possible hazardous consequences of temblors, may further the safety of pipeline facilities.

Keywords: risk, earthquake, monitoring, forecast, precursor

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12476 Importance of Risk Assessment in Managers´ Decision-Making Process

Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

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12475 Impact of Workplace Psychology on Architect's Work Satisfaction

Authors: Sriram Prabhakar

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Architects are known for long and unfriendly work hours and thus adapt to routines mandated by nature and surroundings of their work. Work gratification among architects is necessary to have a healthy working condition that sequentially supports to create built environments as work satisfaction has been low among Architects and are also exposed to a number of stress factors like long working hours, the slow pace of work, high workload, and lack of job safety with low pay which negatively impacts their well-being. Additionally, architects have only a limited scope to use their creative skill. This paper studies the case of work satisfaction and the factors that impact it in the state of Indian architects. An eloquent survey in the form of a questionnaire and standardized interviews will be utilized to form a comprehensive method for the study. Factors that basically affect workplaces include restraining over thermal conditions, indoor air quality, recreational spaces, acoustics, views, lighting, and ergonomics. The expected outcome of the paper is to check architects' workplace psychology and their control on their work environment.

Keywords: architects, gratification, stressors, workplace psychology

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12474 Students Dropout in the Plantation settlement: A Case Study in Sri Lanka

Authors: Irshana Muhamadhu Razmy

Abstract:

Education is one of the main necessities for a modern society to access wealth as well as to achieve social well-being. Education contributes to enhancing as well as developing the social and economic status of an individual and building a vibrant community within a strong nation. The student dropout problem refers to students who enrolled in a school and are later unable to complete their grade education due to multiple factors). In Sri Lanka, the tea plantation sector is a prominent sector. The tea plantation sector is different from other plantation sectors such as palm oil, rubber, and coconut. Therefore, the present study particularly focuses on the influencing factors of student dropout in the tea plantation sector in Sri Lanka by conducting research in the Labookellie estate in Nuwera Eliya District. this research has opted to use both qualitative and quantitative methods. This study examines the factors associated with student dropout namely the family, school, and the social by the characteristic (gender, grade, and ethnicity) in the plantation area in the Labookellie estate.

Keywords: student dropout, school, plantation settlement, social environmental

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12473 Factors in a Sustainability Assessment of New Types of Closed Cavity Facades

Authors: Zoran Veršić, Josip Galić, Marin Binički, Lucija Stepinac

Abstract:

With the current increase in CO₂ emissions and global warming, the sustainability of both existing and new solutions must be assessed on a wide scale. As the implementation of closed cavity facades (CCF) is on the rise, a variety of factors must be included in the analysis of new types of CCF. This paper aims to cover the relevant factors included in the sustainability assessment of new types of CCF. Several mathematical models are being used to describe the physical behavior of CCF. Depending on the type of CCF, they cover the main factors which affect the durability of the façade: thermal behavior of various elements in the façade, stress, and deflection of the glass panels, pressure inside a cavity, exchange rate, and the moisture buildup in the cavity. CCF itself represents a complex system in which all mentioned factors must be considered mutually. Still, the façade is only an envelope of a more complex system, the building. Choice of the façade dictates the heat loss and the heat gain, thermal comfort of inner space, natural lighting, and ventilation. Annual consumption of energy for heating, cooling, lighting, and maintenance costs will present the operational advantages or disadvantages of the chosen façade system in both the economic and environmental aspects. Still, the only operational viewpoint is not all-inclusive. As the building codes constantly demand higher energy efficiency as well as transfer to renewable energy sources, the ratio of embodied and lifetime operational energy footprint of buildings is changing. With the drop in operational energy CO₂ emissions, embodied energy emissions present a larger and larger share in the lifecycle emissions of the building. Taken all into account, the sustainability assessment of a façade, as well as other major building elements, should include all mentioned factors during the lifecycle of an element. The challenge of such an approach is a timescale. Depending on the climatic conditions on the building site, the expected lifetime of CCF can exceed 25 years. In such a time span, some of the factors can be estimated more precisely than others. The ones depending on the socio-economic conditions are more likely to be harder to predict than the natural ones like the climatic load. This work recognizes and summarizes the relevant factors needed for the assessment of new types of CCF, considering the entire lifetime of a façade element and economic and environmental aspects.

Keywords: assessment, closed cavity façade, life cycle, sustainability

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12472 Method Optimisation for [¹⁸F]-FDG Rodent Imaging Studies

Authors: J. Visser, C. Driver, T. Ebenhan

Abstract:

[¹⁸F]-FDG (fluorodeoxyglucose) is a radiopharmaceutical compound that is used for non-invasive cancer tumor imaging through positron emission tomography (PET). This radiopharmaceutical is used to visualise the metabolic processes in tumour tissues, which can be applied for the diagnosis and prognosis of various types of cancer. [¹⁸F]-FDG has widespread use in both clinical and pre-clinical research settings. Imaging using [¹⁸F]-FDG results in representative normal tissue distribution as well as visualisation of hypermetabolic lesions ([¹⁸F]-FDG avid foci). The metabolic tissue concentration of these lesions following [¹⁸F]-FDG administration can be quantified using Standard Uptake Values (SUV). Standard uptake values of [¹⁸F]-FDG-based Positron Emission Tomography can be influenced by various biological and technical handling factors. Biological factors that affect [¹⁸F]-FDG uptake include the blood glucose levels of subjects, normal physiological variants between subjects and administration of certain pharmaceutical agents. Technical factors that can have an effect include the route of radiopharmaceutical or pharmaceutical agents administered and environmental conditions such as ambient temperature and lighting. These factors influencing tracer uptake need to be investigated to improve the robustness of the imaging protocol, which will achieve reproducible image acquisition across various research projects, optimised tumor visualisation and increased data validity and reliability.

Keywords: fluorodeoxyglucose, tumour imaging, Rodent, Blood Glucose, PET/CT Imaging

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12471 The Impact of the Length of Time Spent on the Street on Adjustment to Homelessness

Authors: Jakub Marek, Marie Vagnerova, Ladislav Csemy

Abstract:

Background: The length of time spent on the street influences the degree of adjustment to homelessness. Over the years spent sleeping rough, homeless people gradually lose the ability to control their lives and their return to mainstream society becomes less and less likely. Goals: The aim of the study was to discover whether and how men who have been sleeping rough for more than ten years differ from those who have been homeless for four years or less. Methods: The research was based on a narrative analysis of in-depth interviews focused on the respondent’s entire life story, i.e. their childhood, adolescence, and the period of adulthood preceding homelessness. It also asked the respondents about how they envisaged the future. The group under examination comprised 51 homeless men aged 37 – 54. The first subgroup contained 29 men who have been sleeping rough for 10 – 21 years, the second group contained 22 men who have been homeless for four years or less. Results: Men who have been sleeping rough for more than ten years had problems adapting as children. They grew up in a problematic family or in an institution and acquired only a rudimentary education. From the start they had problems at work, found it difficult to apply themselves, and found it difficult to hold down a job. They tend to have high-risk personality traits and often a personality disorder. Early in life they had problems with alcohol or drugs and their relationships were unsuccessful. If they have children, they do not look after them. They are reckless even in respect of the law and often commit crime. They usually ended up on the street in their thirties. Most of this subgroup of homeless people lack motivation and the will to make any fundamental change to their lives. They identify with the homeless community and have no other contacts. Men who have been sleeping rough for four years or less form two subgroups. There are those who had a normal childhood, attended school and found work. They started a family but began to drink, and as a consequence lost their family and their job. Such men end up on the street between the ages of 35 and 40. And then there are men who become homeless after the age of 40 because of an inability to cope with a difficult situation, e.g. divorce or indebtedness. They are not substance abusers and do not have a criminal record. Such people can be offered effective assistance to return to mainstream society by the social services because they have not yet fully self-identified with the homeless community and most of them have retained the necessary abilities and skills. Conclusion: The length of time a person has been homeless is an important factor in respect of social prevention. It is clear that the longer a person is homeless, the worse are their chances of being reintegrated into mainstream society.

Keywords: risk factors, homelessness, chronicity, narrative analysis

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12470 Disaster Nursing Competency of Nurses in Surattani Province, Thailand: A Factor Analysis

Authors: Rungnapa Chantra

Abstract:

As health care rapidly changes, the nursing profession is also evolving to improve quality of care while maintaining competency in their practice. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors of disaster nurse competencies and investigate the predictable variables in disaster nurse competencies in Suratthani Province, Thailand. The sample consisted of 305 nurses who were recruited by simple random sampling. The development questionnaires from ICN Framework and research contains Pre/Mitigation, Preparedness, Response and Recovery/Rehabilitation Competencies (α=0.87). The data were analyzed using Principle Components Extraction and Orthogonal Rotation with Varimax Method. The findings were as follows; four significant factors of disaster nurse competencies in Suratthani Province, Thailand were identified. These factors were described by 62 variables that accounted for 50.01% of the total variance. The results of this study could be for agencies that are responsible for the development of nursing competencies and should be aware of the development of knowledge and skills in disaster management.

Keywords: disaster nursing competency of nurses, nursing informatics, health science, medical

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12469 Beyond the Water Seal: On-Field Observations of Occupational Hazards of Faecal Sludge Management in Southern Karnataka

Authors: Anissa Mary Thomas Thattil, Nancy Angeline Gnanaselvam, B. Ramakrishna Goud

Abstract:

Faecal sludge management (FSM) is an unorganized sector, and in India, there is an absence of regulations regarding the collection, transport, treatment, and disposal of faecal sludge. FSM has a high degree of occupational hazards that need to be thoroughly understood in order to shape effective solutions. On-field observations of five FSM operations were conducted in Anekal Taluk of southern Karnataka. All five of the FSM operations were privately owned and snowball method of sampling was employed. Two types of FS operations observed were: mechanical emptying involving direct human contact with faecal sludge and mechanical emptying without direct human contact with faecal sludge. Each operation was manned by 3-4 faecal sludge operators (FSOs). None of the observed FSOs used personal protective equipment. According to the WHO semi-quantitative risk assessment, the very high risk occupational hazards identified were dermal contact with faecal sludge, inhalation of toxic gases, and social stigma. The high risk hazards identified were trips and falls, injuries, ergonomic hazards, substance abuse, and mental health problems. In all five FSM operations, the collected faecal sludge was discharged untreated onto abandoned land. FSM in India is fraught with occupational and environmental hazards which need to be urgently addressed. This includes formalizing the institution of FSM, contextualized behaviour change communication, capacity building of local bodies, awareness programmes among agriculturists and FSOs, and designation of sites for the safe harnessing of faecal sludge as soil nutrient.

Keywords: faecal sludge, faecal sludge management, FSM, occupational hazards, sanitation

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12468 Analyzing the Ergonomic Design of Manual Material Handling in Chemical Industry: Case Study of Activity Task Weigh Liquid Catalyst to the Container Storage

Authors: Yayan Harry Yadi, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

Abstract:

Work activities for MMH (Manual Material Handling) in the storage of liquid catalyst raw material workstations in chemical industries identify high-risk MSDs (Musculoskeletal Disorders). Their work is often performed frequently requires an awkward body posture, twisting, bending because of physical space limited, cold, slippery, and limited tools for transfer container and weighing the liquid chemistry of the catalyst into the container. This study aims to develop an ergonomic work system design on the transfer and weighing process of liquid catalyst raw materials at the storage warehouse. A triangulation method through an interview, observation, and detail study team with assessing the level of risk work posture and complaints. Work postures were analyzed using the RULA method, through the support of CATIA software. The study concludes that ergonomic design can make reduce 3 levels of risk scores awkward posture. CATIA Software simulation provided a comprehensive solution for a better posture of manual material handling at task weigh. An addition of manual material handling tools such as adjustable conveyors, trolley and modification tools semi-mechanical weighing with techniques based on rule ergonomic design can reduce the hazard of chemical fluid spills.

Keywords: ergonomic design, MSDs, CATIA software, RULA, chemical industry

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12467 Temporal Fixed Effects: The Macroeconomic Implications on Industry Return

Authors: Mahdy Elhusseiny, Richard Gearhart, Mariam Alyammahi

Abstract:

In this study we analyse the impact of a number of major macroeconomic variables on industry-specific excess rates of return. In later specifications, we include time and recession fixed effects, to potentially capture time-specific trends that may have been changing over our panel. We have a number of results that bear mentioning. Seasonal and temporal factors found to have very large role in sector-specific excess returns. Increases in M1(money supply) decreases bank, insurance, real estate, and telecommunications, while increases industrial and transportation excess returns. The results indicate that the market return increases every sector-specific rate of return. The 2007 to 2009 recession significantly reduced excess returns in the bank, real estate, and transportation sectors.

Keywords: macroeconomic factors, industry returns, fixed effects, temporal factors

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12466 Organizational Resilience in the Perspective of Supply Chain Risk Management: A Scholarly Network Analysis

Authors: William Ho, Agus Wicaksana

Abstract:

Anecdotal evidence in the last decade shows that the occurrence of disruptive events and uncertainties in the supply chain is increasing. The coupling of these events with the nature of an increasingly complex and interdependent business environment leads to devastating impacts that quickly propagate within and across organizations. For example, the recent COVID-19 pandemic increased the global supply chain disruption frequency by at least 20% in 2020 and is projected to have an accumulative cost of $13.8 trillion by 2024. This crisis raises attention to organizational resilience to weather business uncertainty. However, the concept has been criticized for being vague and lacking a consistent definition, thus reducing the significance of the concept for practice and research. This study is intended to solve that issue by providing a comprehensive review of the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience that have been discussed in the supply chain risk management literature (SCRM). We performed a Scholarly Network Analysis, combining citation-based and text-based approaches, on 252 articles published from 2000 to 2021 in top-tier journals based on three parameters: AJG ranking and ABS ranking, UT Dallas and FT50 list, and editorial board review. We utilized a hybrid scholarly network analysis by combining citation-based and text-based approaches to understand the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience in the SCRM literature. Specifically, we employed a Bibliographic Coupling Analysis in the research cluster formation stage and a Co-words Analysis in the research cluster interpretation and analysis stage. Our analysis reveals three major research clusters of resilience research in the SCRM literature, namely (1) supply chain network design and optimization, (2) organizational capabilities, and (3) digital technologies. We portray the research process in the last two decades in terms of the exemplar studies, problems studied, commonly used approaches and theories, and solutions provided in each cluster. We then provide a conceptual framework on the conceptualization and antecedents of resilience based on studies in these clusters and highlight potential areas that need to be studied further. Finally, we leverage the concept of abnormal operating performance to propose a new measurement strategy for resilience. This measurement overcomes the limitation of most current measurements that are event-dependent and focus on the resistance or recovery stage - without capturing the growth stage. In conclusion, this study provides a robust literature review through a scholarly network analysis that increases the completeness and accuracy of research cluster identification and analysis to understand conceptualization, antecedents, and measurement of resilience. It also enables us to perform a comprehensive review of resilience research in SCRM literature by including research articles published during the pandemic and connects this development with a plethora of articles published in the last two decades. From the managerial perspective, this study provides practitioners with clarity on the conceptualization and critical success factors of firm resilience from the SCRM perspective.

Keywords: supply chain risk management, organizational resilience, scholarly network analysis, systematic literature review

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12465 Use of a Novel Intermittent Compression Shoe in Reducing Lower Limb Venous Stasis

Authors: Hansraj Riteesh Bookun, Cassandra Monique Hidajat

Abstract:

This pilot study investigated the efficacy of a newly designed shoe which will act as an intermittent pneumatic compression device to augment venous flow in the lower limb. The aim was to assess the degree with which a wearable intermittent compression device can increase the venous flow in the popliteal vein. Background: Deep venous thrombosis and chronic venous insufficiency are relatively common problems with significant morbidity and mortality. While mechanical and chemical thromboprophylaxis measures are in place in hospital environments (in the form of TED stockings, intermittent pneumatic compression devices, analgesia, antiplatelet and anticoagulant agents), there are limited options in a community setting. Additionally, many individuals are poorly tolerant of graduated compression stockings due to the difficulty in putting them on, their constant tightness and increased associated discomfort in warm weather. These factors may hinder the management of their chronic venous insufficiency. Method: The device is lightweight, easy to wear and comfortable, with a self-contained power source. It features a Bluetooth transmitter and can be controlled with a smartphone. It is externally almost indistinguishable from a normal shoe. During activation, two bladders are inflated -one overlying the metatarsal heads and the second at the pedal arch. The resulting cyclical increase in pressure squeezes blood into the deep venous system. This will decrease periods of stasis and potentially reduce the risk of deep venous thrombosis. The shoe was fitted to 2 healthy participants and the peak systolic velocity of flow in the popliteal vein was measured during and prior to intermittent compression phases. Assessments of total flow volume were also performed. All haemodynamic assessments were performed with ultrasound by a licensed sonographer. Results: Mean peak systolic velocity of 3.5 cm/s with standard deviation of 1.3 cm/s were obtained. There was a three fold increase in mean peak systolic velocity and five fold increase in total flow volume. Conclusion: The device augments venous flow in the leg significantly. This may contribute to lowered thromboembolic risk during periods of prolonged travel or immobility. This device may also serve as an adjunct in the treatment of chronic venous insufficiency. The study will be replicated on a larger scale in a multi—centre trial.

Keywords: venous, intermittent compression, shoe, wearable device

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12464 Motivating Factors and Prospects for Rural Community Involvement in Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Mantanani Island, Sabah, Malaysia

Authors: F. Fabeil Noor, Roslinah Mahmud, Janice L. H. Nga, Rasid Mail

Abstract:

In Malaysia, particularly in Sabah, the government has been promoting entrepreneurship among rural people to encourage them to earn their living by making good use of the diverse natural resources and local cultures of Sabah. Nevertheless, despite the government’s aim to encourage more local community in rural area to involve in entrepreneurship, the involvement of community in entrepreneurial activity is still low. It is crucial to identify the factors stimulate (or prevent) the involvement of rural community in Sabah in entrepreneurial activity. Therefore, this study tries to investigate the personal and contextual factors that may have impact on decision to start a business among the local community in Mantanani Island. In addition, this study also aims to identify the perceived benefits they receive from entrepreneurial activity. A structured face-to-face interview was conducted with 61 local communities in Mantanani Island. Data analysis revealed that passion, personal skills and self-confidence are the significant internal factors to entrepreneurial activity, whereas access to finance, labour and infrastructure are the significant external factors that are found to influence entrepreneurship. In terms of perceived rewards they received from taking up small business, it was found that respondents are predominantly agreed that entrepreneurship offers financial benefit than non-financial. In addition, this study also offers several suggestions for entrepreneurship development in Mantanani Island and it is hoped that this study may help the related agency to develop effective support policies in order to encourage more people in rural area to involve in entrepreneurship.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, motivation, perceived rewards, rural community

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12463 Factors That Affect the Diffusion of Innovation in Greek Archaeological Museums

Authors: Maria Boile, Eirini Sifaki

Abstract:

This study, based on desktop research and the analysis of questionnaires completed by a representative sample of museums, adopts the Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) theory of Everett Rogers as a theoretical basis to figure out the perceived benefits that occur for any organization after the adoption of an official website, and identify the factors that affect its diffusion process. The most important conclusion is that Greek archaeological museums are far away from involving such technologies in their strategies, mainly because of the bureaucracy, the lack of necessary funds, and the lack of personnel.

Keywords: dDiffusion of innovation, websites, archaeological museums, economic crisis

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12462 Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Fire and Explosion of Crude Oil Tanks: Case Study

Authors: B. Zerouali, M. Kara, B. Hamaidi, H. Mahdjoub, S. Rouabhia

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In this paper, a safety analysis for crude oil tanks to prevent undesirable events that may cause catastrophic accidents. The estimation of the probability of damage to industrial systems is carried out through a series of steps, and in accordance with a specific methodology. In this context, this work involves developing an assessment tool and risk analysis at the level of crude oil tanks system, based primarily on identification of various potential causes of crude oil tanks fire and explosion by the use of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), then improved risk modelling by Bayesian Networks (BNs). Bayesian approach in the evaluation of failure and quantification of risks is a dynamic analysis approach. For this reason, have been selected as an analytical tool in this study. Research concludes that the Bayesian networks have a distinct and effective method in the safety analysis because of the flexibility of its structure; it is suitable for a wide variety of accident scenarios.

Keywords: bayesian networks, crude oil tank, fault tree, prediction, safety

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