Search results for: threat situation assessment

Authors: M. Linda Phooko, Phesheya E. Dlamini, Vusumuzi E. Mbanjwa, Rhandu Chauke

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The decline of yields as a consequence of miss-informed land-use decisions poses a threat to sustainable agriculture in South Africa. The non-uniform growth pattern of wheat crop and the yields below expectations has been one of the main concerns for Timatjatji community farmers. This study was then conducted to characterize, classify, and evaluate soils of the farm for sustainable land use planning. A detailed free survey guided by surface features was conducted on a 25 ha farm to check soil variation. It was revealed that Sepane (25%), Bonheim (21%), Rensburg (18%), Katspruit (15%), Arcadia (12%) and Dundee (9%) were the dominant soil forms found across the farm. Field soil description was done to determine morphological characteristics of the soils which were matched with slope percentage and climate to assess the potential of the soils. The land capability results showed that soils were generally shallow due to high clay content in the B horizon. When the climate of the area was factored in (i.e. land potential), it further revealed that the area has low cropping potential due to heat, moisture stress and shallow soils. This implies that the farm is not suitable for annual cropping but can be highly suitable for planted pastures.

Keywords: characterization, land capability, land evaluation, land potential

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Authors: Oto J. Okwu, Ornan Henry, Victor A. Otene

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The agricultural sector contributes a great deal to the sustenance of Nigeria’s food security and economy, with an attendant impact on rural development. In spite of the relatively high number of farmers in the country, self-sufficiency in food production is still a challenge. Farmers are faced with myriad problems which hinder their production efficiency, one of which is their access to agricultural inputs required for optimum production. To meet the challenges faced by farmers, the government at the federal level has come up with many agricultural policies, one of which is the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). The Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) is one of the critical components of ATA, which is aimed at ensuring the effective distribution of agricultural inputs delivered directly to farmers, and at a regulated cost. After about 8 years of launching this policy, it will be necessary to carry out an assessment of GESS and determine the impact it has made on rural farmers with respect to their access to farm inputs. This study was carried out to assess the Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) in Adamawa State, Nigeria. Crop farmers who registered under the GESS in Adamawa State, Nigeria, formed the population for the study. Primary data for the study were obtained through a survey, and the use of a structured questionnaire. A sample size of 167 respondents was selected using multi-stage, purposive, and random sampling techniques. The validity and reliability of the research instrument (questionnaire) were obtained through pilot testing and test-retest method, respectively. The objectives of the study were to determine the difference in the level of access to agricultural inputs before and after GESS, determine the difference in cost of agricultural inputs before and after GESS, and to determine the challenges faced by rural farmers in accessing agricultural inputs through GESS. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in analyzing the collected data. Specifically, Mann-Whitney, student t-test, and factor analysis were used to test the stated hypotheses. Research findings revealed there was a significant difference in the level of access to farm inputs after the introduction of GESS (Z=14.216). Also, there was a significant difference in the cost of agro-inputs after the introduction of GESS (Pr |T| > |t|= 0.0000). The challenges faced by respondents in accessing agro-inputs through GESS were administrative and technical in nature. Based on the findings of the research, it was recommended that efforts be made by the government to sustain the GESS, as it has significantly improved the level of farmers’ access to agricultural inputs and has reduced the cost of agro-inputs, while administrative challenges faced by the respondents in accessing inputs be addressed by the government, and extension agents assist the farmers to overcome the technical challenges they face in accessing inputs.

Keywords: agricultural policy, agro-inputs, assessment, growth enhancement support scheme, rural farmers

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Authors: Sabo Elizabeth

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Electronic learning is increasingly popular learning approach in higher educational institutions due to vast growth of internet technology. This approach is important in human capital development. An investigation of open distance and e-learning facilities and information need by open and distance learning students was carried out in Jalingo, Nigeria. Structured questionnaires were administered to 70 registered ODL students of the NOUN. Information sourced from the respondents covered demographic, economic and institutional variables. Data collected for demographic variables were computed as frequency count and percentages. Assessment of the effectiveness of ODL facilities and information need among open and distance learning students was computed on a three or four point Likert Rating Scale. Findings indicated that there are more men compared to women. A large proportion of the respondents are married and there are more matured students in ODL compared to the youth. A high proportion of the ODL students obtained qualifications higher than the secondary school certificate. The proportion of computer literate ODL students was high, and large number of the students does not own a laptop computer. Inadequate e -books and reference materials, internet gadgets and inadequate books (hard copies) and reference material are factors that limit utilization of e-learning facilities in the study areas. Inadequate computer facilities and power back up caused inconveniences and delay in administering and use of e learning facilities. To a high extent, open and distance learning students needed information on university time table and schedule of activities, availability and access to books (hard and e-books) and reference materials. The respondents emphasized that contact with course coordinators via internet will provide a better learning and academic performance.

Keywords: open and distance learning, information required, electronic books, internet gadgets, Likert scale test

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Authors: Bagus Hanindhito, Fariz Azmi Pratama, Ulfah Nadiya

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Nowadays, digital system including, but not limited to, computer and internet have penetrated the education system widely. Critical information such as students’ academic records is stored in a server off- or on-campus. Although several countermeasures have been taken to protect the vital resources from outsider attack, the defense from insiders threat is not getting serious attention. At the end of 2017, a security incident that involved academic information system in one of the most respected universities in Indonesia affected not only the reputation of the institution and its academia but also academic integrity in Indonesia. In this paper, we will explain our efforts in investigating this security incident where we have implemented a novel rapid evidence remote acquisition method in high-availability server and storage system thus our data collection efforts do not disrupt the academic information system and can be conducted remotely minutes after incident report has been received. The acquired evidence is analyzed during digital forensic by constructing the model of the system in an isolated environment which allows multiple investigators to work together. In the end, the suspect is identified as a student (insider), and the investigation result is used by prosecutors to charge the suspect as an academic crime.

Keywords: academic information system, academic crime, digital forensic, high-availability server and storage, rapid evidence remote acquisition, security incident

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Authors: S. J. Kim, Y. J. Yoo

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Slack-tide sampling was carried out at seven stations at high and low tides for a tidal cycle, in summer (7, 8, 9) and fall (10), 2016 to determine the differences of water quality according to tides in Masan Bay. The data were analyzed by Pearson correlation and factor analysis. The mixing state of all the water quality components investigated is well explained by the correlation with salinity (SAL). Turbidity (TURB), dissolved silica (DSi), nitrite and nitrate nitrogen (NNN) and total nitrogen (TN), which find their way into the bay from the streams and have no internal source and sink reaction, showed a strong negative correlation with SAL at low tide, indicating the property of conservative mixing. On the contrary, in summer and fall, dissolved oxygen (DO), hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and chemical oxygen demand with KMnO4 (CODMn) of the surface and bottom water, which were sensitive to an internal source and sink reaction, showed no significant correlation with SAL at high and low tides. The remaining water quality parameters showed a conservative or a non-conservative mixing pattern depending on the mixing characteristics at high and low tides, determined by the functional relationship between the changes of the flushing time and the changes of the characteristics of water quality components of the end-members in the bay. Factor analysis performed on the concentration difference data sets between high and low tides helped in identifying the principal latent variables for them. The concentration differences varied spatially and temporally. Principal factors (PFs) scores plots for each monitoring situation showed high associations of the variations to the monitoring sites. At sampling station 1 (ST1), temperature (TEMP), SAL, DSi, TURB, NNN and TN of the surface water in summer, TEMP, SAL, DSi, DO, TURB, NNN, TN, reactive soluble phosphorus (RSP) and total phosphorus (TP) of the bottom water in summer, TEMP, pH, SAL, DSi, DO, TURB, CODMn, particulate organic carbon (POC), ammonia nitrogen (AMN), NNN, TN and fecal coliform (FC) of the surface water in fall, TEMP, pH, SAL, DSi, H2S, TURB, CODMn, AMN, NNN and TN of the bottom water in fall commonly showed up as the most significant parameters and the large concentration differences between high and low tides. At other stations, the significant parameters showed differently according to the spatial and temporal variations of mixing pattern in the bay. In fact, there is no estuary that always maintains steady-state flow conditions. The mixing regime of an estuary might be changed at any time from linear to non-linear, due to the change of flushing time according to the combination of hydrogeometric properties, inflow of freshwater and tidal action, And furthermore the change of end-member conditions due to the internal sinks and sources makes the occurrence of concentration difference inevitable. Therefore, when investigating the water quality of the estuary, it is necessary to take a sampling method considering the tide to obtain average water quality data.

Keywords: conservative mixing, end-member, factor analysis, flushing time, high and low tide, latent variables, non-conservative mixing, slack-tide sampling, spatial and temporal variations, surface and bottom water

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Authors: Moien Mojabi, Aurelien Hospital, Daniel Potts, Chris Young, Albert Leung

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The wave analysis is an integral part of the hydrotechnical assessment carried out during the permitting and design phases for coastal structures, such as marinas. This analysis aims in quantifying: i) the Suitability of the coastal structure design against Small Craft Harbour wave tranquility safety criterion; ii) Potential environmental impacts of the structure (e.g., effect on wave, flow, and sediment transport); iii) Mooring and dock design and iv) Requirements set by regulatory agency’s (e.g., WSA section 11 application). While a complex three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling approach can be applied on large-scale projects, the need for an efficient and reliable wave analysis method suitable for smaller scale marina projects was identified. As a result, Tetra Tech has developed and applied an integrated analysis framework (hereafter TT approach), which takes the advantage of the state-of-the-art numerical models while preserving the level of simplicity that fits smaller scale projects. The present paper aims to describe the TT approach and highlight the key advantages of using this integrated framework in lake marina projects. The core of this methodology is made by integrating wind, water level, bathymetry, and structure geometry data. To respond to the needs of specific projects, several add-on modules have been added to the core of the TT approach. The main advantages of this method over the simplified analytical approaches are i) Accounting for the proper physics of the lake through the modelling of the entire lake (capturing real lake geometry) instead of a simplified fetch approach; ii) Providing a more realistic representation of the waves by modelling random waves instead of monochromatic waves; iii) Modelling wave-structure interaction (e.g. wave transmission/reflection application for floating structures and piles amongst others); iv) Accounting for wave interaction with the lakebed (e.g. bottom friction, refraction, and breaking); v) Providing the inputs for flow and sediment transport assessment at the project site; vi) Taking in consideration historical and geographical variations of the wind field; and vii) Independence of the scale of the reservoir under study. Overall, in comparison with simplified analytical approaches, this integrated framework provides a more realistic and reliable estimation of wave parameters (and its spatial distribution) in lake marinas, leading to a realistic hydrotechnical assessment accessible to any project size, from the development of a new marina to marina expansion and pile replacement. Tetra Tech has successfully utilized this approach since many years in the Okanagan area.

Keywords: wave modelling, wind-wave, extreme value analysis, marina

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Authors: Md. Zahidul Islam, Mohamed Shujau Abdul Hakeem

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Illegal immigrants’ problem is a big problem all over the world including Maldives. Nowadays, it is turned into a major problem for Maldives. Many illegal immigrants are staying in Maldives from different countries such as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Philippines and Sri Lanka. The aim of this article is to highlight the present situation of illegal immigrant in Maldives. At the same time, this article also tries to explain the legal protection of illegal immigrant. The research will adopt qualitative methods of research. The qualitative method involves doctrinal. As a doctrinal research, author used secondary sources. As secondary sources, the author used journal articles, newspapers and other useful materials to help the purpose of this research. Government agencies have to more concern to solve this problem.

Keywords: critical appraisal, illegal immigrants, Maldives, overview

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Authors: Mehdi Habibagahi, Shami Nejadi, Ata Aminfar

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A significant degradation factor that impacts the durability of concrete structures is the alkali-silica reaction. Engineers are frequently charged with the challenges of conducting a thorough safety assessment of concrete structures that have been impacted by ASR. The alkali-silica reaction has a major influence on the structural capacities of structures. In most cases, the reduction in compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity is expressed as a function of free expansion and crack widths. Predicting the effect of ASR on flexural strength is also relevant. In this paper, a nonlinear three-dimensional (3D) finite-element model was proposed to describe the flexural strength degradation induced byASR.Initial strains, initial stresses, initial cracks, and deterioration of material characteristics were all considered ASR factors in this model. The effects of ASR on structural performance were evaluated by focusing on initial flexural stiffness, force–deformation curve, and load-carrying capacity. Degradation of concrete mechanical properties was correlated with ASR growth using material test data conducted at Tech Lab, UTS, and implemented into the FEM for various expansions. The finite element study revealed a better understanding of the ASR-affected RC beam's failure mechanism and capacity reduction as a function of ASR expansion. Furthermore, in this study, decreasing of the residual mechanical properties due to ASRisreviewed, using as input data for the FEM model. Finally, analysis techniques and a comparison of the analysis and the experiment results are discussed. Verification is also provided through analyses of reinforced concrete beams with behavior governed by either flexural or shear mechanisms.

Keywords: alkali-silica reaction, analysis, assessment, finite element, nonlinear analysis, reinforced concrete

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Authors: S. Ngcinela, A. Mushunje, A. Taruvinga, C. S. Mutengwa, T. S. Masehela

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There is high demand and competing needs when it comes to land use practices. Several factors contribute to this trend, for example, the ever-increasing human population, the need to produce more food than before, and the expansion of industrial and agricultural areas. This paper, focused on the cultivation patterns, land use change over time, of maize and soybean (i.e. both genetically modified and non-genetically modified) in two South African provinces to establish their land cover changes over time. From a global context, genetically modified crops have been advocated by some to be saving land – due to more yield over small cultivation area(s); while other argue and even criticise their cultivation as they take up more land, replace other crops or are the expense of natural (pristine) vegetation. The study quantified and mapped land used for the cultivation of maize and soybean from 2006 to 2017 in Free State and North West provinces, using ArcGIS. The results show both provinces to have minimal expansion or change in cultivation area for both maize and soybean between 2006 and 2017. The results further indicate that both maize and soybean cultivation areas in these provinces, did not expand beyond the current agricultural areas (space), and did not encroach onto new land areas. This suggests that both maize and soybean, do not currently pose a threat to the surrounding landscape and are not in direct coemption with other neighboring land use practices.

Keywords: agriculture, crops, cultivation, genetically modified, land use, maize, soybean

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Authors: Tayib Bromand, Keisuke Sato

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This paper presents the introduction to current water balance and climate change assessment in the Kabul river basin. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different components of water resources and hydrology in the Kabul river basin. The eastern part of Afghanistan, the Kabul river basin was chosen due to rapid population growth and land degradation to quantify the potential influence of Gobal Climate Change on its hydrodynamic characteristics. Luck of observed meteorological data was the main limitation of present research, few existed precipitation stations in the plain area of Kabul basin selected to compare with TRMM precipitation records, the result has been evaluated satisfactory based on regression and normal ratio methods. So the TRMM daily precipitation and NCEP temperature data set applied in the SWAT model to evaluate water balance for 2008 to 2012. Middle of the twenty – first century (2064) selected as the target period to assess impacts of climate change on hydrology aspects in the Kabul river basin. For this purpose three emission scenarios, A2, A1B and B1 and four GCMs, such as MIROC 3.2 (Med), CGCM 3.1 (T47), GFDL-CM2.0 and CNRM-CM3 have been selected, to estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model. The outputs of the model compared and calibrated based on (R2) satisfactory. The assessed hydrodynamic characteristics and precipitation pattern. The results show that there will be significant impacts on precipitation patter such as decreasing of snowfall in the mountainous area of the basin in the Winter season due to increasing of 2.9°C mean annual temperature and land degradation due to deforestation.

Keywords: climate change, emission scenarios, hydrological components, Kabul river basin, SWAT model

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Authors: İsmail Seçer, Taştan Seçer

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In this study, the effect of the group counseling on the victimhood perceptions of the primary school 7th and 8th grade students who are determined to be the subject of peer victimization and their dealing way with it was analyzed. The research model is Solomon Four Group Experimental Model. In this model, there are four groups that were determined with random sampling. Two of the groups have been used as experimental group and the other two have been used as control group. Solomon model is defined as real experimental model. In real experimental models, there are multiple groups consisting of subject which have similar characteristics, and selection of the subjects is done with random sampling. For this purpose, 230 students from Kültür Kurumu Primary School in Erzurum were asked to fill Adolescent Peer Victim Form. 100 students whose victim scores were higher and who were determined to be the subject of bullying were talked face to face and informed about the current study, and they were asked if they were willing to participate or not. As a result of these interviews, 60 students were determined to participate in the experimental study and four group consisting of 15 people were created with simple random sampling method. After the groups had been formed, experimental and control group were determined with casting lots. After determining experimental and control groups, an 11-session group counseling activity which was prepared by the researcher according to the literature was applied. The purpose of applying group counseling is to change the ineffective dealing ways with bullying and their victimhood perceptions. Each session was planned to be 75 minutes and applied as planned. In the control groups, counseling activities in the primary school counseling curricula was applied for 11 weeks. As a result of the study, physical, emotional and verbal victimhood perceptions of the participants in the experimental groups were decreased significantly compared to pre-experimental situations and to those in control group. Besides, it was determined that this change observed in the victimhood perceptions of the experimental group occurred independently from the effect of variables such as gender, age and academic success. The first evidence of the study related to the dealing ways is that the scores of the participants in the experimental group related to the ineffective dealing ways such as despair and avoidance is decreased significantly compared to the pre-experimental situation and to those in control group. The second evidence related to the dealing ways is that the scores of the participants in the experimental group related to effective dealing ways such as seeking for help, consulting social support, resistance and optimism is increased significantly compared to the pre-experimental situation and to those in control group. According to the evidence obtained through the study, it can be said that group counseling is an effective approach to change the victimhood perceptions of the individuals who are the subject of bullying and their dealing strategies with it.

Keywords: bullying, perception of victimization, coping strategies, ancova analysis

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Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business is not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people. This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risk across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.

Keywords: risk management, success, organization, strategy, project, tactis, vision

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Authors: Abdallah Benaissa

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In this paper, we consider the problem of asymptotics of double oscillatory integrals in the case of critical points of the second kind, the order of contact between the boundary and a level curve of the phase being even, the situation when the order of contact is odd will be studied in other occasions. Complete asymptotic expansions will be derived and the coefficient of the leading term will be computed in terms of the original data of the problem. A multitude of people have studied this problem using a variety of methods, but only in a special case when the order of contact is minimal: the more cited papers are a paper of Jones and Kline and an other one of Chako. These integrals are encountered in many areas of science, especially in problems of diffraction of optics.

Keywords: asymptotic expansion, double oscillatory integral, critical point of the second kind, optics diffraction

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Authors: Li Yin, Xiaoqin Wang

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Background and purpose: Cancer diagnosis is part of a complex stochastic process, in which patients' personal and social characteristics influence the choice of diagnosing methods, diagnosing methods, in turn, influence the initial assessment of cancer stage, the initial assessment, in turn, influences the choice of treating methods, and treating methods in turn influence cancer outcomes such as cancer survival. To evaluate diagnosing methods, one needs to estimate and test the causal effect of a regime of cancer diagnosis and treatments. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to estimate and test these causal effects via point effects. The purpose of the work is to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The cancer stage has influences from earlier diagnosis as well as on subsequent treatments. As a consequence, it is highly difficult to estimate and test the causal effects via standard parameters, that is, the conditional survival given all stationary covariates, diagnosing methods, cancer stage and prognosis factors, treating methods. Instead of standard parameters, we use the point effects of cancer diagnosis and treatments to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments. We are able to use familiar methods in the framework of single-point causal inference to accomplish the task. Achievements: we have applied this method to stomach cancer survival from a clinical study in Sweden. We have studied causal effects under various regimes, including the optimal regime of diagnosis and treatments and the effect moderation of the causal effect by age and gender.

Keywords: cancer diagnosis, causal effect, point effect, G-formula, sequential causal effect

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Authors: Li Zhu, Binghua Wang, Yong Sun

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China is experiencing the rural development process, with the agritourism complex becoming one of the significant modes. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the energy performance of agritourism complex. This study focuses on a typical case of the agritourism complex and simulates the energy consumption performance on condition of the regular energy system. It was found that HVAC took 90% of the whole energy demand range. In order to optimize the energy supply structure, the hierarchical analysis was carried out on the level of architecture with three main factors such as construction situation, building types and energy demand types. Finally, the energy planning suggestion of the agritourism complex was put forward and the relevant results were obtained.

Keywords: agritourism complex, energy planning, energy demand simulation, hierarchical structure model

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Authors: Ousmane Sarr

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The Senegalese coasts have high productivity of fishery resources due to the frequency of intense up-welling system that occurs along its coast, caused by the maritime trade winds making its waters nutrients rich. Fishing plays a primordial role in Senegal's socioeconomic plans and food security. However, a global diagnosis of the Senegalese maritime fishing sector has highlighted the challenges this sector encounters. Among these concerns, some significant stocks, a priority target for artisanal fishing, need further assessment. If no efforts are made in this direction, most stock will be overexploited or even in decline. It is in this context that this research was initiated. This investigation aimed to apply a multi-modal approach (LBB, Catch-only-based CMSY model and its most recent version (CMSY++); JABBA, and JABBA-Select) to assess the stock of Atlantic bonito, Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793) in the Senegalese Exclusive Economic Zone (SEEZ). Available catch, effort, and size data from Atlantic bonito over 15 years (2004-2018) were used to calculate the nominal and standardized CPUE, size-frequency distribution, and length at retentions (50 % and 95 % selectivity) of the species. These relevant results were employed as input parameters for stock assessment models mentioned above to define the stock status of this species in this region of the Atlantic Ocean. The LBB model indicated an Atlantic bonito healthy stock status with B/BMSY values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 and B/B0 values varying from 0.47 to 0.61 of the main scenarios performed (BON_AFG_CL, BON_GN_Length, and BON_PS_Length). The results estimated by LBB are consistent with those obtained by CMSY. The CMSY model results demonstrate that the SEEZ Atlantic bonito stock is in a sound condition in the final year of the main scenarios analyzed (BON, BON-bt, BON-GN-bt, and BON-PS-bt) with sustainable relative stock biomass (B2018/BMSY = 1.13 to 1.3) and fishing pressure levels (F2018/FMSY= 0.52 to 1.43). The B/BMSY and F/FMSY results for the JABBA model ranged between 2.01 to 2.14 and 0.47 to 0.33, respectively. In contrast, The estimated B/BMSY and F/FMSY for JABBA-Select ranged from 1.91 to 1.92 and 0.52 to 0.54. The Kobe plots results of the base case scenarios ranged from 75% to 89% probability in the green area, indicating sustainable fishing pressure and an Atlantic bonito healthy stock size capable of producing high yields close to the MSY. Based on the stock assessment results, this study highlighted scientific advice for temporary management measures. This study suggests an improvement of the selectivity parameters of longlines and purse seines and a temporary prohibition of the use of sleeping nets in the fishery for the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ based on the results of the length-base models. Although these actions are temporary, they can be essential to reduce or avoid intense pressure on the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ. However, it is necessary to establish harvest control rules to provide coherent and solid scientific information that leads to appropriate decision-making for rational and sustainable exploitation of Atlantic bonito in the SEEZ and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Keywords: multi-model approach, stock assessment, atlantic bonito, healthy stock, sustainable, SEEZ, temporary management measures

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Authors: Jakub Zembrzuski, Bartosz Sobczyk, Mikołaj MIśkiewicz

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Besides designing new constructions, engineers all over the world must face another problem – maintenance, repairs, and assessment of the technical condition of existing bridges. To solve more complex issues, it is necessary to be familiar with the theory of finite element method and to have access to the software that provides sufficient tools which to enable create of sometimes significantly advanced numerical models. The paper includes a brief assessment of the technical condition, a description of the in situ non-destructive testing carried out and the FEM models created for global and local analysis. In situ testing was performed using strain gauges and displacement sensors. Numerical models were created using various software and numerical modeling techniques. Particularly noteworthy is the method of modeling riveted joints of the crossbeam of the viaduct. It is a simplified method that consists of the use of only basic numerical tools such as beam and shell finite elements, constraints, and simplified boundary conditions (fixed support and symmetry). The results of the numerical analyses were presented and discussed. It is clearly explained why the structure did not fail, despite the fact that the weld of the deck plate completely failed. A further research problem that was solved was to determine the cause of the rapid increase in values on the stress diagram in the cross-section of the transverse section. The problems were solved using the solely mentioned, simplified method of modeling riveted joints, which demonstrates that it is possible to solve such problems without access to sophisticated software that enables to performance of the advanced nonlinear analysis. Moreover, the obtained results are of great importance in the field of assessing the operation of bridge structures with an orthotropic plate.

Keywords: bridge, diagnostics, FEM simulations, failure, NDT, in situ testing

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Authors: Seung-Un Chae, Heung-Yul Kim, Sa-Kil Kim

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This paper presents the findings of preliminary study on human control performance in case of fire. The relationship between human control and human decision is studied in decision processes and stress model of human in a fire. Human behavior aspects involved in the decision process during a fire incident. The decision processes appear that six of individual perceptual processes: recognition, validation, definition, evaluation, commitment, and reassessment. Then, human may be stressed in order to get an optimal decision for their activity. This paper explores problems in human control processes and stresses in a catastrophic situation. Thus, the future approach will be concerned to reduce stresses and ambiguous irrelevant information.

Keywords: human reliability, decision processes, stress model, fire

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Authors: Farida Habib, Haya Alfozan, Eman Miligi, Najla Alotaibi

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Background: Women’s satisfaction with maternity services, especially care during labor and birth, has become highly significant to healthcare providers, administrators, and policymakers. Purpose: The aims of this study were to assess maternal satisfaction regarding the quality of care during labor and to compare the level of maternal satisfaction between women who delivered by physicians and those delivered by midwives. Methodology: A descriptive, cross-sectional, correlational design was used. A convenient sample of 180 low-risk cases of immediate postpartum women who delivered at King Abdul-Aziz medical city was recruited. Women whose babies were diagnosed with serious health problems were excluded from the study. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were ensured. The questionnaire included three parts, namely: demographics data, medical history, and obstetrical history, and the last part is the satisfaction assessment tool. Ethical confederations were ensured. Maternal satisfaction during labor was classified in terms of health care, health workers' communication, and the environment. Results: Regarding health care, women were highly satisfied with care received from nurse (M = 4.21 + 0.88), medical care received (M = 4.17 + 0.79), and comfort techniques (M = 4.04 + 0.91). Regarding health workers' communication, women were highly satisfied with the provider to treat with dignity and respect (M = 4.03 + 0.91) and orientation to the toilet, bathroom, washing area (M = 4.00 + 0.93). Regarding the environment, women were highly satisfied with the experience of their baby's birth (M = 4.18 + 0.98) and supplies with drugs and supplies (M = 4.09 + 0.97). There was no statistically significant difference in maternal satisfaction between women who delivered by physicians and those delivered by midwives. Conclusion: Women were generally satisfied with their labor and delivery experience. There was no difference in maternal satisfaction on the labor process between women who delivered by physicians and those delivered by midwives.

Keywords: maternity, satisfaction, labor, delivery

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Marcia Teresa Gildo

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The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is responsible to provide international protection and humanitarian assistance to refugees and to seek permanent solutions to their situation. To fulfil this mandate, the agency works in collaboration with its partners and governments. This paper aims to analyse the agency's actions to protect and provide assistance to Mozambican refugees in Malawi. Since July 2015, approximately 12.000 people have fled Mozambique to neighbouring Malawi due to the political-military conflict between the government of Mozambique and RENAMO (the country’s largest opposition party). This led to a series of military clashes between the two parties and the consequent flight of some Mozambicans to Malawi, in search of asylum. Most arrived from the province of Tete, in the central region of Mozambique, and, to a lesser extent, from the province of Zambezia. The asylum seekers arrived in small groups and settled in the village of Kapise in the Mwanza district of Thambani, as well as in Chikwawa and Nsanje districts in Malawi. UNHCR led an interinstitutional response action to manage the flow of Mozambican asylum seekers to Malawi. In view of these aspects and the ongoing challenge of protecting refugees and finding permanent solutions to their situation, UNHCR remains an indispensable international organization. However, there are significant gaps in the international refugee protection regime, and there have been many occasions when UNHCR has failed to fulfill its mandate. The analysis was carried out through qualitative research methods and techniques based essentially on consultation of books, newspapers and scientific articles, television and journalistic reports and interviews with the people who were involved in the process. From the data obtained, it was concluded that UNHCR worked in coordination with its partners and the government of Malawi to provide protection and emergency assistance to the refugees. However, existing funds covered only the immediate needs of refugees, more funds had to be allocated. That was made through an interinstitutional appeal. Although the funds allocated were not sufficient, they allowed the agency to protect and assist the refugees until a permanent solution was found. UNHCR also worked in coordination with the governments of Malawi and Mozambique so that a tripartite agreement was signed between the parties for the voluntary repatriation of Mozambican refugees, since security conditions were guaranteed and the refugees had expressed their willingness to return to their country of origin. UNHCR's actions to protect Mozambican refugees in Malawi have enabled humanitarian conditions to be respected and the rights of refugees to be guaranteed. Cooperation with the different actors involved in the response has allowed UNHCR to fulfil its mandate.

Keywords: assistance , cooperation, international protection, refugees

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Authors: Adriana Radan Ungureanu

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The industrial landscape is changing due to the financial crises, poor availability of raw materials, new discoveries and interdisciplinary collaborations. New ideas shape the change through technologies and bring responses for a better life. The process of change is leaded by big players like states and companies, but they cannot keep their places on the market without the help of the small ones. The main tool of change is technology and the entire developed world dedicated efforts for decades in this direction. Even the expectations are not yet met, the research for finding adequate solutions is far from to be stopped. A relevant example is nanotechnology where most of discoveries still remain into laboratory and could not succeed to find the right way to the market. In front of this situation the right question could be: ”Is it worth investing in nanotechnology in the name of an uncertain future but with very little impact on present?” This paper tries to find a positive answer from a three-dimensional approach using a descriptive analyse based on available database supplied by the European case studies, reports, and literature.

Keywords: Europe, KET’s, nanotechnology, technology

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Authors: Dan Richard D. Fernandez

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This study determined the perspectives of community health workers’ perspectives in the sustainability of primary health care. Eight community health workers, two community officials and a rural health midwife in a rural community in the in the Philippines were enjoined to share their perspectives in the sustainability of primary health care. The study utilized the critical research method. The critical research assumes that there are ‘dominated’ or ‘marginalized’ groups whose interests are not best served by existing societal structures. Their experiences highlighted that the challenges of their role include unkind and uncooperative patients, the lack of institutional support mechanisms and conflict of their roles with their family responsibilities. Their most revealing insight is the belief that primary health care is within their grasp. Finally, they believe that the burden to sustain primary health care rests on their shoulders alone. This study establishes that Multi-stakeholder participation is and Gender-sensitivity is integral to the sustainability of Primary Health Care. It also observed that the ingrained Expert-Novice or Top-down Management Culture and the marginalisation of BHWs within the system is a threat to PHC sustainability. This study also recommends to expand the study and to involve the local government units and academe in lobbying the integration of gender-sensitivity and multi-stake participatory approaches to health workforce policies. Finally, this study recognised that the CHWs’ role is indispensable to the sustainability of primary health care.

Keywords: community health workers, multi-stakeholder participation, sustainability, gender-sensitivity

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Authors: Babak Nemat Shahrbabaki, Arezo Fallahi, Masoomeh Hashemian

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Introduction: Health and safety are basic components of civil right. Health care systems in different countries were influenced by political, economic and cultural circumstances. In order to health services to people, these systems are organized with different forms, methods such as: prevention, treatment and rehabilitation and in this among, public satisfaction with the services provided is important. This study aimed to determine client satisfaction with family physician and relationship with physician’ demographic variables in health care centers of Jiroft county, Iran. Methods: This is a descriptive-analytical study. The collective data tool was a self-made questionnaire with two parts. The first part comprised demographic characteristics, and the second part contained 11 items for the assessment of satisfaction with family physician from different aspects. In addition, questionnaire, reliability and validity were confirmed. Random simple sampling method was used to determine samples. 234 people referred to the health centers filled questionnaire. The data were analyzed using SPSS software, and inferential statistical analysis was performed. Findings: The majority of the study population were women, married, and aged between 18 and 62 years (mean= 30.09±10.71). Total average satisfaction score was 42.63±3.68. Overall satisfaction averages were 9.47% very high, 30.04% high, 33.09% moderate, 15.12% low, and 12.28% very low. Except lodge on of family physician none of physician’ demographic variables did not effect on satisfaction index. Discussion & Conclusion: The Results showed that mean of satisfaction indexes of family physicians was high and lodge on of family physician effected on this index. Informing people about the main goals of family-doctor program will help to promote the quality of program and increase people satisfaction.

Keywords: family physician program, satisfaction, health-care centers, client

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Authors: Ashit Syngle, Inderjit Verma, Pawan Krishan

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Therapeutic approaches used previously relied on disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) that had only partial clinical benefit and were associated with significant toxicity. Spironolactone, an oral aldosterone antagonist, suppresses inflammatory mediators. Clinical efficacy of spironolactone compared with placebo in patients with active psoriatic arthritis despite treatment with prior traditional DMARDs. In the 24-week, placebo-controlled study patients (n=31) were randomized to placebo and spironolactone (2 m/kg/day). Patients on background concurrent DMARDs continued stable doses (methotrexate, leflunomide, and/or sulfasalazine). Primary outcome measures were the assessment of disease activity measures i.e. 28-joint disease activity score (DAS28) and diseases activity in psoriatic arthritis (DAPSA) at week 24. The key secondary endpoint was change from baseline in Health Assessment Questionnaire–Disability Index (HAQ-DI) at week 24. Additional efficacy outcome measures at week 24 included improvements in the markers of inflammation (ESR and CRP) and pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-1. At week 24, spironolactone significantly reduced disease activity measure DAS-28 (p<0.001) and DAPSA (p=0.001) compared with placebo. Significant improvements in key secondary measures HAQ-DI (disability index) were evident with spironolactone (p=0.02) versus placebo. After week 24, there was significant reduction in pro-inflammatory cytokines level TNF-α, IL-6 (p<0.01) as compared with placebo group. However, there was no significant improvement in IL-1 in both treatment and placebo groups. There were minor side effects which did not mandate stopping of spironolactone. No change in any biochemical profile was noted after spironolactone treatment. Spironolactone was effective in the treatment of PsA, improving disease activity, physical function and suppressing the level of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Spironolactone demonstrated an acceptable safety profile and was well tolerated.

Keywords: spironolactone, inflammation, inflammatory cytokine, psoriatic arthritis

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Authors: Kuo-Wei Liao, Jessica Gitomarsono

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Bridge reliability against natural hazards such as floods or earthquakes is an interdisciplinary problem that involves a wide range of knowledge. Moreover, due to the global climate change, engineers have to design a structure against the multi-hazard threats. Currently, few of the practical design guideline has included such concept. The bridge foundation in Taiwan often does not have a uniform width. However, few of the researches have focused on safety evaluation of a bridge with a complex pier. Investigation of the scouring depth under such situation is very important. Thus, this study first focuses on investigating and improving the scour prediction formula for a bridge with complicated foundation via experiments and artificial intelligence. Secondly, a probabilistic design procedure is proposed using the established prediction formula for practical engineers under the multi-hazard attacks.

Keywords: bridge, reliability, multi-hazards, scour

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Authors: Hachaichi Mohamed Nour El-Islem, Baouni Tahar

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Environmental sustainability rather than a trans-disciplinary and a scientific issue, is the main problem that characterizes all modern cities nowadays. In developing countries, this concern is expressed in a plethora of critical urban ills: traffic congestion, air pollution, noise, urban decay, increase in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions which blemish cities’ landscape and might threaten citizens’ health and welfare. As in the same manner as developing world cities, the rapid growth of Algiers’ human population and increasing in city scale phenomena lead eventually to increase in daily trips, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. In addition, the lack of proper and sustainable planning of the city’s infrastructure is one of the most relevant issues from which Algiers suffers. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the carbon deficit of the City of Algiers, Algeria, using the Ecological Footprint Model (carbon footprint). In order to achieve this goal, the amount of CO₂ from fuel combustion has been calculated and aggregated into five sectors (agriculture, industry, residential, tertiary and transportation); as well, Algiers’ biocapacity (CO₂ uptake land) has been calculated to determine the ecological overshoot. This study shows that Algiers’ transport system is not sustainable and is generating more than 50% of Algiers total carbon footprint which cannot be sequestered by the local forest land. The aim of this research is to show that the Carbon Footprint Assessment might be a relevant indicator to design sustainable strategies/policies striving to reduce CO₂ by setting in motion the energy consumption in the transportation sector and reducing the use of fossil fuels as the main energy input.

Keywords: biocapacity, carbon footprint, ecological footprint assessment, energy consumption

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Authors: Sadegh Abebi

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There are problems with estimating time of product process of products, especially when there is variable serving time, like control stage. These problems will cause overestimation of process time. Layout constraints, reworking constraints and inflexible product schedule in multi product lines, needs a precise planning to reduce volume in particular situation of line stock. In this article, by analyzing real queue systems with layout constraints and by using concepts and principles of Markov chain in queue theory, a hybrid model has been presented. This model can be a base to assess queue systems with probable parameters of service. Here by presenting a case study, the proposed model will be described. so, production lines of a home application manufacturer will be analyzed.

Keywords: Queuing theory, Markov Chain, layout, line balance

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: O. O. Oguntoye

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Product consumption constitutes an important consideration for sustainable development. Seeing how product consumption could be highly unsustainable, coupled with how existing policies on corporate responsibility do not particularly address the consumption aspect of product lifecycle, conducting this research became necessary. The research makes an attempt to provide a framework by which to gauge corporate responsibility of product suppliers in terms of their commitment towards the sustainable consumption of their products. Through an exploration of relevant literature, independently established ideas with which to assess a given product supplier were galvanised into a four-criterion framework. The criteria are: (1) Embeddedness of consumption as a factor in corporate sustainability policy, (2) Level of understanding of consumption behaviour, (3) Breadth of behaviour-influencing strategies adopted, and (4) Inclusiveness for all main dimensions of sustainability. This resulting framework was then applied in a case study involving a UK-based furniture supplier where interviews and content analysis of corporate documents were used as the mode for primary data collection. From the case study, it was found that the supplier had performed to different levels across the four themes of the assessment. Two major areas for improvement were however identified – one is for the furniture supplier to focus more proactively on understanding consumption behaviour and, two is for it to widen the scope of its current strategies for enhancing sustainable consumption of supplied furniture. As a generalisation, the framework presented here makes it possible for companies to reflect with a sense of guidance, how they have demonstrated commitment towards sustainable consumption through their values, culture, and operations. It also provides a foundation for developing standardized assessment which the current widely used frameworks such as the GRI, the Global Compact, and others do not cover. While these popularly used frameworks mainly focus on sustainability of companies within the production and supply chain management contexts (i.e. mostly ‘upstream’), the framework here provides an extension by bringing the ‘downstream’ or consumer bit into light.

Keywords: corporate sustainability, design for sustainable consumption, extended producer responsibility, sustainable consumer behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 423