Search results for: interpolated error shifting

Authors: J. F. Reinoso-Gordo, F. J. Ariza-López, A. Mozas-Calvache, J. L. García-Balboa, S. Eddargani

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The DEMs quality may depend on several factors such as data source, capture method, processing type used to derive them, or the cell size of the DEM. The two most important capture methods to produce regional-sized DEMs are photogrammetry and LiDAR; DEMs covering entire countries have been obtained with these methods. The quality of these DEMs has traditionally been evaluated by the national cartographic agencies through punctual sampling that focused on its vertical component. For this type of evaluation there are standards such as NMAS and ASPRS Positional Accuracy Standards for Digital Geospatial Data. However, it seems more appropriate to carry out this evaluation by means of a method that takes into account the superficial nature of the DEM and, therefore, its sampling is superficial and not punctual. This work is part of the Research Project "Functional Quality of Digital Elevation Models in Engineering" where it is necessary to control the quality of a DEM whose data source is an experimental LiDAR flight with a density of 14 points per square meter to which we call Point Cloud Product (PCpro). In the present work it is described the capture data on the ground and the postprocessing tasks until getting the point cloud that will be used as reference (PCref) to evaluate the PCpro quality. Each PCref consists of a patch 50x50 m size coming from a registration of 4 different scan stations. The area studied was the Spanish region of Navarra that covers an area of 10,391 km2; 30 patches homogeneously distributed were necessary to sample the entire surface. The patches have been captured using a Leica BLK360 terrestrial laser scanner mounted on a pole that reached heights of up to 7 meters; the position of the scanner was inverted so that the characteristic shadow circle does not exist when the scanner is in direct position. To ensure that the accuracy of the PCref is greater than that of the PCpro, the georeferencing of the PCref has been carried out with real-time GNSS, and its accuracy positioning was better than 4 cm; this accuracy is much better than the altimetric mean square error estimated for the PCpro (<15 cm); The kind of DEM of interest is the corresponding to the bare earth, so that it was necessary to apply a filter to eliminate vegetation and auxiliary elements such as poles, tripods, etc. After the postprocessing tasks the PCref is ready to be compared with the PCpro using different techniques: cloud to cloud or after a resampling process DEM to DEM.

Keywords: data quality, DEM, LiDAR, terrestrial laser scanner, accuracy

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Authors: Farahnaz Sadat Golestan Hashemi, Mohd Razi Ismail, Mohd Y. Rafii

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Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) and CRISPR-associated protein (Cas) system can facilitate targeted genome editing in organisms. Dual or single guide RNA (gRNA) can program the Cas9 nuclease to cut target DNA in particular areas; thus, introducing concise mutations either via error-prone non-homologous end-joining repairing or via incorporating foreign DNAs by homologous recombination between donor DNA and target area. In spite of high demand of such promising technology, developing a well-organized procedure in order for reliable mining of potential target sites for gRNAs in large genomic data is still challenging. Hence, we aimed to perform high-throughput detection of target sites by specific PAMs for not only common Streptococcus pyogenes (SpCas9) but also for Neisseria meningitides (NmCas9) CRISPR-Cas systems. Previous research confirmed the successful application of such RNA-guided Cas9 orthologs for effective gene targeting and subsequently genome manipulation. However, Cas9 orthologs need their particular PAM sequence for DNA cleavage activity. Activity levels are based on the sequence of the protospacer and specific combinations of favorable PAM bases. Therefore, based on the specific length and sequence of PAM followed by a constant length of the target site for the two orthogonals of Cas9 protein, we created a reliable procedure to explore possible gRNA sequences. To mine CRISPR target sites, four different searching modes of sgRNA binding to target DNA strand were applied. These searching modes are as follows i) coding strand searching, ii) anti-coding strand searching, iii) both strand searching, and iv) paired-gRNA searching. Finally, a complete list of all potential gRNAs along with their locations, strands, and PAMs sequence orientation can be provided for both SpCas9 as well as another potential Cas9 ortholog (NmCas9). The artificial design of potential gRNAs in a genome of interest can accelerate functional genomic studies. Consequently, the application of such novel genome editing tool (CRISPR/Cas technology) will enhance by presenting increased versatility and efficiency.

Keywords: CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing, gRNA mining, SpCas9, NmCas9

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Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Ambindei Agwanande, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha

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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1 as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated, and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.

Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models are dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator which is an extension of the Arellano-Bond model where past values and different transformations of past values of the potentially problematic independent variable are used as instruments together with other instrumental variables. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator augments Arellano–Bond by making an additional assumption that first differences of instrument variables are uncorrelated with the fixed effects. This allows the introduction of more instruments and can dramatically improve efficiency. It builds a system of two equations—the original equation and the transformed one—and is also known as system GMM. In this study, Finnish housing price dynamics were examined empirically by using the Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimation technique together with ordinary OLS. The aim of the analysis was to provide a comparison between conventional fixed-effects panel data models and dynamic panel data models. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator is suitable for this analysis for a number of reasons: It is a general estimator designed for situations with 1) a linear functional relationship; 2) one left-hand-side variable that is dynamic, depending on its own past realizations; 3) independent variables that are not strictly exogenous, meaning they are correlated with past and possibly current realizations of the error; 4) fixed individual effects; and 5) heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation within individuals but not across them. Based on data of 14 Finnish cities over 1988-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were considerable when different models and instrumenting were used. Especially, the use of different instrumental variables caused variation of model estimates together with their statistical significance. This was particularly clear when comparing estimates of OLS with different dynamic panel data models. Estimates provided by dynamic panel data models were more in line with theory of housing price dynamics.

Keywords: dynamic model, fixed effects, panel data, price dynamics

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Authors: H. Arzani, Z. Arzani

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Every piece of rangeland has a different set of physical and biological characteristics. This requires the manager to synthesis various information for regular monitoring to define changes trend to get wright decision for sustainable management. So range managers need to use computerized technologies to monitor rangeland, and select. The best management practices. There are four examples of computerized technologies that can benefit sustainable management: (1) Photographic method for cover measurement: The method was tested in different vegetation communities in semi humid and arid regions. Interpretation of pictures of quadrats was done using Arc View software. Data analysis was done by SPSS software using paired t test. Based on the results, generally, photographic method can be used to measure ground cover in most vegetation communities. (2) GPS application for corresponding ground samples and satellite pixels: In two provinces of Tehran and Markazi, six reference points were selected and in each point, eight GPS models were tested. Significant relation among GPS model, time and location with accuracy of estimated coordinates was found. After selection of suitable method, in Markazi province coordinates of plots along four transects in each 6 sites of rangelands was recorded. The best time of GPS application was in the morning hours, Etrex Vista had less error than other models, and a significant relation among GPS model, time and location with accuracy of estimated coordinates was found. (3) Application of satellite data for rangeland monitoring: Focusing on the long term variation of vegetation parameters such as vegetation cover and production is essential. Our study in grass and shrub lands showed that there were significant correlations between quantitative vegetation characteristics and satellite data. So it is possible to monitor rangeland vegetation using digital data for sustainable utilization. (4) Rangeland suitability classification with GIS: Range suitability assessment can facilitate sustainable management planning. Three sub-models of sensitivity to erosion, water suitability and forage production out puts were entered to final range suitability classification model. GIS was facilitate classification of range suitability and produced suitability maps for sheep grazing. Generally digital computers assist range managers to interpret, modify, calibrate or integrating information for correct management.

Keywords: computer, GPS, GIS, remote sensing, photographic method, monitoring, rangeland ecosystem, management, suitability, sheep grazing

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Authors: Almas Rajguru

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The Oligocene succession of the Tapti- Daman area is one of the established petroleum plays in Tapti-Daman block of the Mumbai Offshore Basin. Despite good control and production history, the sand geometry and continuity of reservoir character of these sediments are less understood as most reservoirs are thin and fall below seismic resolution. The present work focuses on a detailed analysis of the Early Oligocene Mahuva Formation at the reservoir scale through laboratory studies (sedimentology and biostratigraphy) of core and sidewall cores in integration with electro logs for firming up facies’ distribution, micro-depositional environment and sequence stratigraphy, diagenesis and reservoir characterization from seventeen wells from North Tapti-C-37 area in Tapti Daman Block, WOB. The thick shale/claystone with thin interbeds of sandstone and siltstones of deeper marine in the lower part of Mahuva Fm represents deposition in a transgressive regime. The overlying interbedded sandstone, glauconitic-siltstone/fine-grained sandstone, and thin beds of packstone/grainstone within highly fissile shale were deposited in a prograding tide-dominated delta during late-rise normal regression. Nine litho facies (F1-F9) representing deposition in various microenvironments of the tide-dominated delta are identified based on their characteristic sediment texture, structure and microfacies. Massive, gritty sandstone (F1) with poorly sorted sands lithic fragments with calcareous and Fe-rich matrix represents channel fill sediments. High-angle cross-stratified sandstone (F2) deposited in rapidly shifting/migrating bars under strong tidal currents. F3 records the laterally accreted tidal-channel point bars. F3 (low-angle cross-stratified to parallel bedded sandstone) and F4 (Clean sandstone) are often associated with F2 in a tidal bar complex. F5 (interbedded thin sand and mud) and F6 (bioturbated sandstone) represent tidal flat deposits. High energy open marine carbonate shoals (F8) and fossiliferous sandstone in offshore bars (F7) represent deepening up facies. Shallow marine standstill conditions facilitated the deposition of thick shale (F9) beds. The reservoir facies (F1-F6) are commonly poorly to moderately sorted; bimodal, immature sandstone represented by quartz-wacke. The framework grains are sub-angular to sub-rounded, medium to coarse-grained (occasionally gritty) embedded within argillaceous (kaolinite/chlorite/chamosite) to highly Fe-rich matrix (sideritic). The facies F7 and F8, representing the sandy packstone and grainstone facies, respectively, exhibit poor reservoir characteristics due to sanitization, diagenetic compaction and matrix-filled intergranular spaces. The various diagenetic features such as the presence of authigenic clays (kaolinite/dickite/smectite); ferruginous minerals like siderite, pyrite, hematite and other iron oxides; bioturbations; glauconite; calcite and quartz cementation, precipitation of gypsum, pressure solution and other compaction effects are identified. These diagenetic features, wherever present, have reduced porosity and permeability thereby adversely affecting reservoir quality. Tidal bar sandstones possess good reservoir characteristics such as moderate to good sorting, fair to good porosity and geometry that facilitates efficient lateral extension and vertical thickness of reservoir. The sand bodies of F2, F3 and F4 facies of Well L, M and Q deposited in a tidal bar complex exhibit good reservoir quality represented by relatively cleaner, poorly burrowed, loose, friable sandstone with good porosity. Sandstone facies around these wells could prove a potential hydrocarbon reservoir and could be considered for further exploration.

Keywords: reservoir sedimentology, facies analysis, HST, tide dominated delta, tidal bars

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Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

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Authors: Huinan Zhang, Wenjie Jiang

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Accurate estimation of tropical cyclone intensity is of great importance for disaster prevention and mitigation. Existing techniques are largely based on satellite imagery data, and research and utilization of the inner thermal core structure characteristics of tropical cyclones still pose challenges. This paper presents a two-stage tropical cyclone intensity estimation network based on the fusion of coarse and fine-grained features from microwave brightness temperature data. The data used in this network are obtained from the thermal core structure of tropical cyclones through the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) inversion. Firstly, the thermal core information in the pressure direction is comprehensively expressed through the maximal intensity projection (MIP) method, constructing coarse-grained thermal core images that represent the tropical cyclone. These images provide a coarse-grained feature range wind speed estimation result in the first stage. Then, based on this result, fine-grained features are extracted by combining thermal core information from multiple view profiles with a distributed network and fused with coarse-grained features from the first stage to obtain the final two-stage network wind speed estimation. Furthermore, to better capture the long-tail distribution characteristics of tropical cyclones, focal loss is used in the coarse-grained loss function of the first stage, and ordinal regression loss is adopted in the second stage to replace traditional single-value regression. The selection of tropical cyclones spans from 2012 to 2021, distributed in the North Atlantic (NA) regions. The training set includes 2012 to 2017, the validation set includes 2018 to 2019, and the test set includes 2020 to 2021. Based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHS), this paper categorizes tropical cyclone levels into three major categories: pre-hurricane, minor hurricane, and major hurricane, with a classification accuracy rate of 86.18% and an intensity estimation error of 4.01m/s for NA based on this accuracy. The results indicate that thermal core data can effectively represent the level and intensity of tropical cyclones, warranting further exploration of tropical cyclone attributes under this data.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, deep learning, data mining, remote sensing

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Authors: Priya Saha, Sourav Dey Roy Jr., Debotosh Bhattacharjee, Mita Nasipuri, Barin Kumar De, Mrinal Kanti Bhowmik

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Biometric face recognition technology (FRT) has gained a lot of attention due to its extensive variety of applications in both security and non-security perspectives. It has come into view to provide a secure solution in identification and verification of person identity. Although other biometric based methods like fingerprint scans, iris scans are available, FRT is verified as an efficient technology for its user-friendliness and contact freeness. Accurate facial feature localization plays an important role for many facial analysis applications including biometrics and emotion recognition. But, there are certain factors, which make facial feature localization a challenging task. On human face, expressions can be seen from the subtle movements of facial muscles and influenced by internal emotional states. These non-rigid facial movements cause noticeable alterations in locations of facial landmarks, their usual shapes, which sometimes create occlusions in facial feature areas making face recognition as a difficult problem. The paper proposes a new hybrid based technique for automatic landmark detection in both neutral and expressive frontal and near frontal face images. The method uses the concept of thresholding, sequential searching and other image processing techniques for locating the landmark points on the face. Also, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) based software is designed that could automatically detect 16 landmark points around eyes, nose and mouth that are mostly affected by the changes in facial muscles. The proposed system has been tested on widely used JAFFE and Cohn Kanade database. Also, the system is tested on DeitY-TU face database which is created in the Biometrics Laboratory of Tripura University under the research project funded by Department of Electronics & Information Technology, Govt. of India. The performance of the proposed method has been done in terms of error measure and accuracy. The method has detection rate of 98.82% on JAFFE database, 91.27% on Cohn Kanade database and 93.05% on DeitY-TU database. Also, we have done comparative study of our proposed method with other techniques developed by other researchers. This paper will put into focus emotion-oriented systems through AU detection in future based on the located features.

Keywords: biometrics, face recognition, facial landmarks, image processing

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Gundula Bartzke, Hans-Peter Piepho

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Rainfall is a critical component of climate governing vegetation growth and production, forage availability and quality for herbivores. However, reliable rainfall measurements are not always available, making it necessary to predict rainfall values for particular locations through time. Predicting rainfall in space and time can be a complex and challenging task, especially where the rain gauge network is sparse and measurements are not recorded consistently for all rain gauges, leading to many missing values. Here, we develop a flexible Bayesian model for predicting rainfall in space and time and apply it to Narok County, situated in southwestern Kenya, using data collected at 23 rain gauges from 1965 to 2015. Narok County encompasses the Maasai Mara ecosystem, the northern-most section of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, famous for its diverse and abundant large mammal populations and spectacular migration of enormous herds of wildebeest, zebra and Thomson's gazelle. The model incorporates geographical and meteorological predictor variables, including elevation, distance to Lake Victoria and minimum temperature. We assess the efficiency of the model by comparing it empirically with the established Gaussian process, Kriging, simple linear and Bayesian linear models. We use the model to predict total monthly rainfall and its standard error for all 5 * 5 km grid cells in Narok County. Using the Monte Carlo integration method, we estimate seasonal and annual rainfall and their standard errors for 29 sub-regions in Narok. Finally, we use the predicted rainfall to predict large herbivore biomass in the Maasai Mara ecosystem on a 5 * 5 km grid for both the wet and dry seasons. We show that herbivore biomass increases with rainfall in both seasons. The model can handle data from a sparse network of observations with many missing values and performs at least as well as or better than four established and widely used models, on the Narok data set. The model produces rainfall predictions consistent with expectation and in good agreement with the blended station and satellite rainfall values. The predictions are precise enough for most practical purposes. The model is very general and applicable to other variables besides rainfall.

Keywords: non-stationary covariance function, gaussian process, ungulate biomass, MCMC, maasai mara ecosystem

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

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Authors: Gautier Viaud, Paul-Henry Cournède

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Plant growth models have been used extensively for the prediction of the phenotypic performance of plants. However, they remain most often calibrated for a given genotype and therefore do not take into account genotype by environment interactions. One way of achieving such an objective is to consider Bayesian hierarchical models. Three levels can be identified in such models: The first level describes how a given growth model describes the phenotype of the plant as a function of individual parameters, the second level describes how these individual parameters are distributed within a plant population, the third level corresponds to the attribution of priors on population parameters. Thanks to the Bayesian framework, choosing appropriate priors for the population parameters permits to derive analytical expressions for the full conditional distributions of these population parameters. As plant growth models are of a nonlinear nature, individual parameters cannot be sampled explicitly, and a Metropolis step must be performed. This allows for the use of a hybrid Gibbs--Metropolis sampler. A generic approach was devised for the implementation of both general state space models and estimation algorithms within a programming platform. It was designed using the Julia language, which combines an elegant syntax, metaprogramming capabilities and exhibits high efficiency. Results were obtained for Arabidopsis thaliana on both simulated and real data. An organ-scale Greenlab model for the latter is thus presented, where the surface areas of each individual leaf can be simulated. It is assumed that the error made on the measurement of leaf areas is proportional to the leaf area itself; multiplicative normal noises for the observations are therefore used. Real data were obtained via image analysis of zenithal images of Arabidopsis thaliana over a period of 21 days using a two-step segmentation and tracking algorithm which notably takes advantage of the Arabidopsis thaliana phyllotaxy. Since the model formulation is rather flexible, there is no need that the data for a single individual be available at all times, nor that the times at which data is available be the same for all the different individuals. This allows to discard data from image analysis when it is not considered reliable enough, thereby providing low-biased data in large quantity for leaf areas. The proposed model precisely reproduces the dynamics of Arabidopsis thaliana’s growth while accounting for the variability between genotypes. In addition to the estimation of the population parameters, the level of variability is an interesting indicator of the genotypic stability of model parameters. A promising perspective is to test whether some of the latter should be considered as fixed effects.

Keywords: bayesian, genotypic differentiation, hierarchical models, plant growth models

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Radul Shishkov, Orlin Davchev

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The digital era has revolutionized architectural practices, with building information modeling (BIM) emerging as a pivotal tool for architects, engineers, and construction professionals. However, the transition from traditional methods to BIM-centric approaches poses significant challenges, particularly in the context of existing structures. This research introduces a technical approach to bridge this gap through the development of algorithms that facilitate the automated transformation of 3D point cloud data into detailed BIM models. The core of this research lies in the application of algorithmic modeling and computational design methods to interpret and reconstruct point cloud data -a collection of data points in space, typically produced by 3D scanners- into comprehensive BIM models. This process involves complex stages of data cleaning, feature extraction, and geometric reconstruction, which are traditionally time-consuming and prone to human error. By automating these stages, our approach significantly enhances the efficiency and accuracy of creating BIM models for existing buildings. The proposed algorithms are designed to identify key architectural elements within point clouds, such as walls, windows, doors, and other structural components, and to translate these elements into their corresponding BIM representations. This includes the integration of parametric modeling techniques to ensure that the generated BIM models are not only geometrically accurate but also embedded with essential architectural and structural information. Our methodology has been tested on several real-world case studies, demonstrating its capability to handle diverse architectural styles and complexities. The results showcase a substantial reduction in time and resources required for BIM model generation while maintaining high levels of accuracy and detail. This research contributes significantly to the field of architectural technology by providing a scalable and efficient solution for the integration of existing structures into the BIM framework. It paves the way for more seamless and integrated workflows in renovation and heritage conservation projects, where the accuracy of existing conditions plays a critical role. The implications of this study extend beyond architectural practices, offering potential benefits in urban planning, facility management, and historic preservation.

Keywords: BIM, 3D point cloud, algorithmic modeling, computational design, architectural reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Agwanande Ambindei, Zangue Steve Carly Desobgo, Abraham Billu, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha

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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1, as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.

Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Abulbasit G. Abdulsayid, Zinab F. Abdulla, Asma A. Omer

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On the ground that the orifice plate is relatively inexpensive, requires very little maintenance and only calibrated during the occasion of plant turnaround, the orifice plate has turned to be in a real prevalent use in gas industry. Inaccuracy of measurement in the fiscal metering stations may highly be accounted to be the most vital factor for mischarges in the natural gas industry in Libya. A very trivial error in measurement can add up a fast escalating financial burden to the custodian transactions. The unaccounted gas quantity transferred annually via orifice plates in Libya, could be estimated in an extent of multi-million dollars. As the oil and gas wealth is the solely source of income to Libya, every effort is now being exerted to improve the accuracy of existing orifice metering facilities. Discharge coefficient has become pivotal in current researches undertaken in this regard. Hence, increasing the knowledge of the flow field in a typical orifice meter is indispensable. Recently and in a drastic pace, the CFD has become the most time and cost efficient versatile tool for in-depth analysis of fluid mechanics, heat and mass transfer of various industrial applications. Getting deeper into the physical phenomena lied beneath and predicting all relevant parameters and variables with high spatial and temporal resolution have been the greatest weighing pros counting for CFD. In this paper, flow phenomena for air passing through an orifice meter were numerically analyzed with CFD code based modeling, giving important information about the effect of orifice plate specifications on the discharge coefficient for three different tappings locations, i.e., flange tappings, D and D/2 tappings compared with vena contracta tappings. Discharge coefficients were paralleled with discharge coefficients estimated by ISO 5167. The influences of orifice plate bore thickness, orifice plate thickness, beveled angle, perpendicularity and buckling of the orifice plate, were all duly investigated. A case of an orifice meter whose pipe diameter of 2 in, beta ratio of 0.5 and Reynolds number of 91100, was taken as a model. The results highlighted that the discharge coefficients were highly responsive to the variation of plate specifications and under all cases, the discharge coefficients for D and D/2 tappings were very close to that of vena contracta tappings which were believed as an ideal arrangement. Also, in general sense, it was appreciated that the standard equation in ISO 5167, by which the discharge coefficient was calculated, cannot capture the variation of the plate specifications and thus further thorough considerations would be still needed.

Keywords: CFD, discharge coefficients, orifice meter, orifice plate specifications

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Marita Heyns

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Job insecurity is a distressing phenomenon which has far reaching consequences for both employees and their organizations. Previously, much attention has been given to the link between job insecurity and individual level performance outcomes, while less is known about how subjectively perceived job insecurity might transfer beyond the individual level to affect performance of the organization on an aggregated level. Research focusing on how employees’ fear of job loss might affect the organization’s ability to respond proactively to volatility and drastic change through applying its capabilities of sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring, appears to be practically non-existent. Equally little is known about the potential underlying mechanisms through which job insecurity might affect the dynamic capabilities of an organization. This study examines how job insecurity might affect dynamic organizational capability through trust as an underling process. More specifically, it considered the simultaneous roles of trust at an impersonal (organizational) level as well as trust at an interpersonal level (in leaders and co-workers) as potential underlying mechanisms through which job insecurity might affect the organization’s dynamic capability to respond to opportunities and imminent, drastic change. A quantitative research approach and a stratified random sampling technique enabled the collection of data among 314 managers at four different plant sites of a large South African steel manufacturing organization undergoing dramatic changes. To assess the study hypotheses, the following statistical procedures were employed: Structural equation modelling was performed in Mplus to evaluate the measurement and structural models. The Chi-square values test for absolute fit as well as alternative fit indexes such as the Comparative Fit Index and the Tucker-Lewis Index, the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation and the Standardized Root Mean Square Residual were used as indicators of model fit. Composite reliabilities were calculated to evaluate the reliability of the factors. Finally, interaction effects were tested by using PROCESS and the construction of two-sided 95% confidence intervals. The findings indicate that job insecurity had a lower-than-expected detrimental effect on evaluations of the organization’s dynamic capability through the conducive buffering effects of trust in the organization and in its leaders respectively. In contrast, trust in colleagues did not seem to have any noticeable facilitative effect. The study proposes that both job insecurity and dynamic capability can be managed more effectively by also paying attention to factors that could promote trust in the organization and its leaders; some practical recommendations are given in this regard.

Keywords: dynamic organizational capability, impersonal trust, interpersonal trust, job insecurity

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Păcurar Diana Istina

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The indissoluble link between aesthetics and semiotics, the harmonization and semiotic understanding of the interactions between the viewer and the object being looked at, are the basis of the practical demonstration of the importance of aesthetic perception within the theater performance. The design of a theater performance includes several structures, some considered from the beginning, art forms (i.e., the text), others being represented by simple, common objects (e.g., scenographic elements), which, if reunited, can trigger a certain aesthetic perception. The audience is delivered, by the team involved in the performance, a series of auditory and visual signs with which they interact. It is necessary to explain some notions about the physiological support of the transformation of different types of stimuli at the level of the cerebral hemispheres. The cortex considered the superior integration center of extransecal and entanged stimuli, permanently processes the information received, but even if it is delivered at a constant rate, the generated response is individualized and is conditioned by a number of factors. Each changing situation represents a new opportunity for the viewer to cope with, developing feelings of different intensities that influence the generation of meanings and, therefore, the management of interactions. In this sense, aesthetic perception depends on the detection of the “correctness” of signs, the forms of which are associated with an aesthetic property. Fairness and aesthetic properties can have positive or negative values. Evaluating the emotions that generate judgment and implicitly aesthetic perception, whether we refer to visual emotions or auditory emotions, involves the integration of three areas of interest: Valence, arousal and context control. In this context, superior human cognitive processes, memory, interpretation, learning, attribution of meanings, etc., help trigger the mechanism of anticipation and, no less important, the identification of error. This ability to locate a short circuit produced in a series of successive events is fundamental in the process of forming an aesthetic perception. Our main purpose in this research is to investigate the possible conditions under which aesthetic perception and its minimum content are generated by all these structures and, in particular, by interactions with forms that are not commonly considered aesthetic forms. In order to demonstrate the quantitative and qualitative importance of the categories of signs used to construct a code for reading a certain message, but also to emphasize the importance of the order of using these indices, we have structured a mathematical analysis that has at its core the analysis of the percentage of signs used in a theater performance.

Keywords: semiology, aesthetics, theatre semiotics, theatre performance, structure, aesthetic perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Tolulope Aremu

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This paper is based on the idea of using deep learning methodology for optimizing production yield by tuning a few key process parameters in a manufacturing environment. The study was explicitly on how to maximize production yield and minimize operational costs by utilizing advanced neural network models, specifically Long Short-Term Memory and Convolutional Neural Networks. These models were implemented using Python-based frameworks—TensorFlow and Keras. The targets of the research are the precision molding processes in which temperature ranges between 150°C and 220°C, the pressure ranges between 5 and 15 bar, and the material flow rate ranges between 10 and 50 kg/h, which are critical parameters that have a great effect on yield. A dataset of 1 million production cycles has been considered for five continuous years, where detailed logs are present showing the exact setting of parameters and yield output. The LSTM model would model time-dependent trends in production data, while CNN analyzed the spatial correlations between parameters. Models are designed in a supervised learning manner. For the model's loss, an MSE loss function is used, optimized through the Adam optimizer. After running a total of 100 training epochs, 95% accuracy was achieved by the models recommending optimal parameter configurations. Results indicated that with the use of RSM and DOE traditional methods, there was an increase in production yield of 12%. Besides, the error margin was reduced by 8%, hence consistent quality products from the deep learning models. The monetary value was annually around $2.5 million, the cost saved from material waste, energy consumption, and equipment wear resulting from the implementation of optimized process parameters. This system was deployed in an industrial production environment with the help of a hybrid cloud system: Microsoft Azure, for data storage, and the training and deployment of their models were performed on Google Cloud AI. The functionality of real-time monitoring of the process and automatic tuning of parameters depends on cloud infrastructure. To put it into perspective, deep learning models, especially those employing LSTM and CNN, optimize the production yield by fine-tuning process parameters. Future research will consider reinforcement learning with a view to achieving further enhancement of system autonomy and scalability across various manufacturing sectors.

Keywords: production yield optimization, deep learning, tuning of process parameters, LSTM, CNN, precision manufacturing, TensorFlow, Keras, cloud infrastructure, cost saving

Procedia PDF Downloads 34

Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Yanping Liao, Zenan Wu, Ruigang Zhao

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Frequency diverse array (FDA) beamforming is a technology developed in recent years, and its antenna pattern has a unique angle-distance-dependent characteristic. However, the beam is always required to have strong concentration, high resolution and low sidelobe level to form the point-to-point interference in the concentrated set. In order to eliminate the angle-distance coupling of the traditional FDA and to make the beam energy more concentrated, this paper adopts a multi-carrier FDA structure based on proposed power exponential frequency offset to improve the array structure and frequency offset of the traditional FDA. The simulation results show that the beam pattern of the array can form a dot-shape beam with more concentrated energy, and its resolution and sidelobe level performance are improved. However, the covariance matrix of the signal in the traditional adaptive beamforming algorithm is estimated by the finite-time snapshot data. When the number of snapshots is limited, the algorithm has an underestimation problem, which leads to the estimation error of the covariance matrix to cause beam distortion, so that the output pattern cannot form a dot-shape beam. And it also has main lobe deviation and high sidelobe level problems in the case of limited snapshot. Aiming at these problems, an adaptive beamforming technique based on exponential correction for multi-carrier FDA is proposed to improve beamforming robustness. The steps are as follows: first, the beamforming of the multi-carrier FDA is formed under linear constrained minimum variance (LCMV) criteria. Then the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix is ​​performed to obtain the diagonal matrix composed of the interference subspace, the noise subspace and the corresponding eigenvalues. Finally, the correction index is introduced to exponentially correct the small eigenvalues ​​of the noise subspace, improve the divergence of small eigenvalues ​​in the noise subspace, and improve the performance of beamforming. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can make the multi-carrier FDA form a dot-shape beam at limited snapshots, reduce the sidelobe level, improve the robustness of beamforming, and have better performance.

Keywords: adaptive beamforming, correction index, limited snapshot, multi-carrier frequency diverse array, robust

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Eze Chinwe Catherine, Orji Nkiru Marykate, Anyaegbunam L. C., Igbodika M.C.

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Uterine Leiomyomata (ULs) are the most frequently occurring pelvic and gynaecologic tumors in premenopausal women, occurring globally with a prevalence of 21.4%. UL represents a major public health problem in African women; therefore, this study aimed to reveal public health impact and risk factors associated with uterine leiomyomata among women in Imo state. A convenience sample of 2965 women was studied for gynaecological cases from October 2020 to March 2021 at the selected clinics of study. Eligible women were recruited to participate in a non interventional descriptive cross-sectional study. Data on socio demographic and gynaecological characteristics, BMI, parity, age, age at menarche, knowledge, attitudes, and perception were collected using a structured questionnaire, guided interviews, anthropometrics, and haematological tests. These were analyzed using SPSS Version 23. Associations between continuous variables were analysed appropriately and tested at 95% confidence level and standard error of 5%. A total of 652(22.0%) were diagnosed having uterine Leiomyomata (UL), and the overall prevalence of UF at clinics/Diagnostic centre in Imo State was 22%. A total of 652 women (46.1%) responded. More than half of the women had a parity of zero (1623: 54.8%), 664 (22.4%) had a parity of 1-2, and 491 (16.6%) had a parity of 3-4. Majority (68.6%) indicated that they experience an irregular menstrual cycle, and a similar proportion (67%) number experience pelvic pain. Age was found as a significant associating factor of uterine fibroids in this study (p=0.046, χ2= 6.158), lowest among the women between 16 to 25 years old and highest among the women between 36 – 45 years of age. The rate of UF was found to be 62.1% on the studied women menarche age of 11 years old or less while it was approximately 18% among the women whose age at menarche were at least 14 years old. Education ((p=0.003, χ²= 13.826), residency (p=0.066, χ²= 3.372). BMI (p= 0.000, χ²=102.36) were significantly associated with the risk of UL. Some of the Clinical presentation includes anaemia, abdominal pelvic mass, and infertility. The poor positive perception was obtained on the general perception (16.7%) as well as on treatment seeking behavior (28%). The study concluded that UL had a significant impact on health related quality of life on respondents due to its relatively high prevalence and their probable impact on patient’s quality of life.UL was especially prevalent in women aged between 36 to 45 years, nulliparous women, and women of higher BMI. Community enlightenment to enhance knowledge, attitude, and perception on fibroids and risk factors necessary to ensure early diagnosis and presentation, including patient centered treatment option.

Keywords: fibroids, prevalence, risk factors, body mass index, menarche, anaemia, KAP

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Samuel Faboyede, Obiamaka Nwobu, Samuel Fakile, Dickson Mukoro

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In the present dynamic business environment of corporate governance and regulations, financial reporting is an inevitable and extremely significant process for every business enterprise. Several financial elements such as Annual Reports, Quarterly Reports, ad-hoc filing, and other statutory/regulatory reports provide vital information to the investors and regulators, and establish trust and rapport between the internal and external stakeholders of an organization. Investors today are very demanding, and emphasize greatly on authenticity, accuracy, and reliability of financial data. For many companies, the Internet plays a key role in communicating business information, internally to management and externally to stakeholders. Despite high prominence being attached to external reporting, it is disconnected in most companies, who generate their external financial documents manually, resulting in high degree of errors and prolonged cycle times. Chief Executive Officers and Chief Financial Officers are increasingly susceptible to endorsing error-laden reports, late filing of reports, and non-compliance with regulatory acts. There is a lack of common platform to manage the sensitive information – internally and externally – in financial reports. The Internet financial reporting language known as eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) continues to develop in the face of challenges and has now reached the point where much of its promised benefits are available. This paper looks at the emergence of this revolutionary twenty-first century language of digital reporting. It posits that today, the world is on the brink of an Internet revolution that will redefine the ‘business reporting’ paradigm. The new Internet technology, eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL), is already being deployed and used across the world. It finds that XBRL is an eXtensible Markup Language (XML) based information format that places self-describing tags around discrete pieces of business information. Once tags are assigned, it is possible to extract only desired information, rather than having to download or print an entire document. XBRL is platform-independent and it will work on any current or recent-year operating system, or any computer and interface with virtually any software. The paper concludes that corporate stakeholders and the government cannot afford to ignore the XBRL. It therefore recommends that all must act locally and think globally now via the adoption of XBRL that is changing the face of worldwide business reporting.

Keywords: XBRL, financial reporting, internet, internal and external reports

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Şeyma Saliha Fidan, Ozgur Serin, Ata Mugan

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While performing verification analyses under static and dynamic loads that composite structures used in aviation are exposed to, it is necessary to obtain the bearing strength limit value for mechanically connected composite structures. For this purpose, various tests are carried out in accordance with aviation standards. There are many companies in the world that perform these tests in accordance with aviation standards, but the test costs are very high. In addition, due to the necessity of producing coupons, the high cost of coupon materials, and the long test times, it is necessary to simulate these tests on the computer. For this purpose, various test coupons were produced by using reinforcement and alignment angles of the composite radomes, which were integrated into the aircraft. Glass fiber reinforced and Quartz prepreg is used in the production of the coupons. The simulations of the tests performed according to the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) D5961 Procedure C standard were performed on the computer. The analysis model was created in three dimensions for the purpose of modeling the bolt-hole contact surface realistically and obtaining the exact bearing strength value. The finite element model was carried out with the Analysis System (ANSYS). Since a physical break cannot be made in the analysis studies carried out in the virtual environment, a hypothetical break is realized by reducing the material properties. The material properties reduction coefficient was determined as 10%, which is stated to give the most realistic approach in the literature. There are various theories in this method, which is called progressive failure analysis. Because the hashin theory does not match our experimental results, the puck progressive damage method was used in all coupon analyses. When the experimental and numerical results are compared, the initial damage and the resulting force drop points, the maximum damage load values ​​, and the bearing strength value are very close. Furthermore, low error rates and similar damage patterns were obtained in both test and simulation models. In addition, the effects of various parameters such as pre-stress, use of bushing, the ratio of the distance between the bolt hole center and the plate edge to the hole diameter (E/D), the ratio of plate width to hole diameter (W/D), hot-wet environment conditions were investigated on the bearing strength of the composite structure.

Keywords: puck, finite element, bolted joint, composite

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Yonwaba Atyosi, Moses Cho, Abel Ramoelo, Nobuhle Majozi, Cecilia Masemola, Yoliswa Mkhize

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Spectroscopy has been widely used to understand the hyperspectral remote sensing of soils. Accurate and efficient measurement of soil moisture is essential for precision agriculture. The aim of this study was to understand the spectral behavior of soil at different soil water content levels and identify the significant spectral bands for soil moisture content retrieval at field-scale. The study consisted of 60 soil samples from a maize farm, divided into four different treatments representing different moisture levels. Spectral signatures were measured for each sample in laboratory under artificial light using an Analytical Spectral Device (ASD) spectrometer, covering a wavelength range from 350 nm to 2500 nm, with a spectral resolution of 1 nm. The results showed that the absorption features at 1450 nm, 1900 nm, and 2200 nm were particularly sensitive to soil moisture content and exhibited strong correlations with the water content levels. Continuum removal was developed in the R programming language to enhance the absorption features of soil moisture and to precisely understand its spectral behavior at different water content levels. Statistical analysis using partial least squares regression (PLSR) models were performed to quantify the correlation between the spectral bands and soil moisture content. This study provides insights into the spectral behavior of soil at different water content levels and identifies the significant spectral bands for soil moisture content retrieval. The findings highlight the potential of spectroscopy for non-destructive and rapid soil moisture measurement, which can be applied to various fields such as precision agriculture, hydrology, and environmental monitoring. However, it is important to note that the spectral behavior of soil can be influenced by various factors such as soil type, texture, and organic matter content, and caution should be taken when applying the results to other soil systems. The results of this study showed a good agreement between measured and predicted values of Soil Moisture Content with high R2 and low root mean square error (RMSE) values. Model validation using independent data was satisfactory for all the studied soil samples. The results has significant implications for developing high-resolution and precise field-scale soil moisture retrieval models. These models can be used to understand the spatial and temporal variation of soil moisture content in agricultural fields, which is essential for managing irrigation and optimizing crop yield.

Keywords: soil moisture content retrieval, precision agriculture, continuum removal, remote sensing, machine learning, spectroscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Taylan Kabbani, Ekrem Duman

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The design of adaptive systems that take advantage of financial markets while reducing the risk can bring more stagnant wealth into the global market. However, most efforts made to generate successful deals in trading financial assets rely on Supervised Learning (SL), which suffered from various limitations. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers to solve these drawbacks of SL approaches by combining the financial assets price "prediction" step and the "allocation" step of the portfolio in one unified process to produce fully autonomous systems capable of interacting with its environment to make optimal decisions through trial and error. In this paper, a continuous action space approach is adopted to give the trading agent the ability to gradually adjust the portfolio's positions with each time step (dynamically re-allocate investments), resulting in better agent-environment interaction and faster convergence of the learning process. In addition, the approach supports the managing of a portfolio with several assets instead of a single one. This work represents a novel DRL model to generate profitable trades in the stock market, effectively overcoming the limitations of supervised learning approaches. We formulate the trading problem, or what is referred to as The Agent Environment as Partially observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model, considering the constraints imposed by the stock market, such as liquidity and transaction costs. More specifically, we design an environment that simulates the real-world trading process by augmenting the state representation with ten different technical indicators and sentiment analysis of news articles for each stock. We then solve the formulated POMDP problem using the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, which can learn policies in high-dimensional and continuous action spaces like those typically found in the stock market environment. From the point of view of stock market forecasting and the intelligent decision-making mechanism, this paper demonstrates the superiority of deep reinforcement learning in financial markets over other types of machine learning such as supervised learning and proves its credibility and advantages of strategic decision-making.

Keywords: the stock market, deep reinforcement learning, MDP, twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient, sentiment analysis, technical indicators, autonomous agent

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Olumuyiwa Ayoola Kokapi, Olugbenga Solomon Bello

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Dyes are organic compounds with complex aromatic molecular structure that resulted in fast colour on a substance. Dye effluent found in wastewater generated from the dyeing industries is one of the greatest contributors to water pollution. Groundnut hull (GH) is an agricultural material that constitutes waste in the environment. Environmental contamination by hazardous organic chemicals is an urgent problem, which is partially solved through adsorption technologies. The choice of groundnut hull was promised on the understanding that some materials of agricultural origin have shown potentials to act as Adsorbate for hazardous organic chemicals. The aim of this research is to evaluate the potential of groundnut hull to adsorb Crystal violet dye through kinetic, isotherm and thermodynamic studies. The prepared groundnut hulls was characterized using Brunauer, Emmett and Teller (BET), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Operational parameters such as contact time, initial dye concentration, pH, and effect of temperature were studied. Equilibrium time for the adsorption process was attained in 80 minutes. Adsorption isotherms used to test the adsorption data were Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms model. Thermodynamic parameters such as ∆G°, ∆H°, and ∆S° of the adsorption processes were determined. The results showed that the uptake of dye by groundnut hulls occurred at a faster rate, corresponding to an increase in adsorption capacity at equilibrium time of 80 min from 0.78 to 4.45 mg/g and 0.77 to 4.45mg/g with an increase in the initial dye concentration from 10 to 50 mg/L for pH 3.0 and 8.0 respectively. High regression values obtained for pseudo-second-order kinetic model, sum of square error (SSE%) values along with strong agreement between experimental and calculated values of qe proved that pseudo second-order kinetic model fitted more than pseudo first-order kinetic model. The result of Langmuir and Freundlich model showed that the adsorption data fit the Langmuir model more than the Freundlich model. Thermodynamic study demonstrated the feasibility, spontaneous and endothermic nature of the adsorption process due to negative values of free energy change (∆G) at all temperatures and positive value of enthalpy change (∆H) respectively. The positive values of ∆S showed that there was increased disorderliness and randomness at the solid/solution interface of crystal violet dye and groundnut hulls. The present investigation showed that, groundnut hulls (GH) is a good low-cost alternative adsorbent for the removal of Crystal Violet (CV) dye from aqueous solution.

Keywords: adsorption, crystal violet dye, groundnut halls, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Abidemi C. Adegboye, Nosakhare Ikponmwosa, Rogers A. Akinsokeji

Abstract:

For many resource-rich developing countries, fiscal policy has become a key tool used for short-run fiscal management since it is considered as playing a critical role in injecting part of resource rents into the economies. However, given its instability, reliance on revenue from commodity exports renders fiscal management, budgetary planning and the efficient use of public resources difficult. In this study, the linkage between commodity prices and fiscal operations among a sample of commodity-exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is investigated. The main question is whether commodity price fluctuations affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool in these countries. Fiscal management effectiveness is considered as the ability of fiscal policy to react countercyclically to output gaps in the economy. Fiscal policy is measured as the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP and the ratio of government spending to GDP, output gap is measured as a Hodrick-Prescott filter of output growth for each country, while commodity prices are associated with each country based on its main export commodity. Given the dynamic nature of fiscal policy effects on the economy overtime, a dynamic framework is devised for the empirical analysis. The panel cointegration and error correction methodology is used to explain the relationships. In particular, the study employs the panel ECM technique to trace short-term effects of commodity prices on fiscal management and also uses the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique to determine the long run relationships. These procedures provide sufficient estimation of the dynamic effects of commodity prices on fiscal policy. Data used cover the period 1992 to 2016 for 11 SSA countries. The study finds that the elasticity of the fiscal policy measures with respect to the output gap is significant and positive, suggesting that fiscal policy is actually procyclical among the countries in the sample. This implies that fiscal management for these countries follows the trend of economic performance. Moreover, it is found that fiscal policy has not performed well in delivering macroeconomic stabilization for these countries. The difficulty in applying fiscal stabilization measures is attributable to the unstable revenue inflows due to the highly volatile nature of commodity prices in the international market. For commodity-exporting countries in SSA to improve fiscal management, therefore, fiscal planning should be largely decoupled from commodity revenues, domestic revenue bases must be improved, and longer period perspectives in fiscal policy management are the critical suggestions in this study.

Keywords: commodity prices, ECM, fiscal policy, fiscal procyclicality, fully modified OLS, sub-saharan africa

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