Search results for: web processing service (WPS)

Authors: Henry Venter, Murali Thyloth, Alceu Casseb

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Historically, mental and substance use disorders were not a global health priority. Since the 1993 World Development Report, the importance of the contribution of mental health and substance abuse on the relative global burden associated with disease morbidity has been recognized with 300 million people worldwide suffering from depression alone. This led to an international effort to improve the mental health of populations around the world. Despite these efforts some countries remain at the top of the list of countries with the highest rate of mental illness. Important research questions were asked: Would there be commonalities regarding mental health between these countries; would there be common factors leading to the high prevalence of mental illness; and how prepared are these countries with mental health delivery? Findings from this research can aid organizations and institutions preparing mental health service providers to focus training and preparation to address specific needs revealed by the study. Methods: Researchers decided to compare three distinctly different countries at the top of the list of countries with the highest rate of mental illness, the USA, India and Brazil, situated on three different continents with different economies and lifestyles. Data were collected using archival research methodology, reviewing records and findings of international and national health and mental health studies to subtract and compare data and findings. Results: The findings indicated that India is the most depressed country in the world, followed by the USA (and China) with Brazil in Latin America with the greatest number of depressed individuals. By 2020 roughly 20% of India, acountry of over one billion citizens, will suffer from some form of mental illnees, yet there are less than 4,000 experts available. In the USA 164.8 million people were substance abusers and an estimate of 47.6 million adults, 18 or older, had any mental illness in 2018. That means that about one in five adults in the USA experiences some form of mental illness each year, but only 41% of those affected received mental health care or services in the past year. Brazil has the greatest number of depressed individuals, in Latin America. Adults living in Sao Paulo megacity has prevalence of mental disorders at greater levels than similar surveys conducted in other areas of the world with more than one million adults with serious impairment levels. Discussion: The results show that, despite the vast socioeconomic differences between the three countries, there are correlations regarding mental health prevalence and difficulty to provide adequate services including a lack of awareness of how serious mental illness is, stigma for seeking mental illness, with comorbidity a common phenomenon, and a lack of partnership between different levels of service providers, which weakens mental health service delivery. The findings also indicate that mental health training institutions have a monumental task to prepare personnel to address the future mental health needs in each of the countries compared, which will constitute the next phase of the research.

Keywords: mental health epidemiology, mental health disorder, mental health prevalence, mental health treatment

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Authors: Albert W. K. Tan

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This research consolidates a comprehensive array of publications from peer-reviewed journals, case studies, and seminar reports focused on reverse logistics and network design. By synthesizing this secondary knowledge, our objective is to identify and articulate key decision factors crucial to reverse logistics network design for e-commerce. Through this exploration, we aim to present a refined mathematical model that offers valuable insights for companies seeking to optimize their reverse logistics operations. The primary goal of this research endeavor is to develop a comprehensive framework tailored to advising organizations and companies on crafting effective networks for their reverse logistics operations, thereby facilitating the achievement of their organizational goals. This involves a thorough examination of various network configurations, weighing their advantages and disadvantages to ensure alignment with specific business objectives. The key objectives of this research include: (i) Identifying pivotal factors pertinent to network design decisions within the realm of reverse logistics across diverse supply chains. (ii) Formulating a structured framework designed to offer informed recommendations for sound network design decisions applicable to relevant industries and scenarios. (iii) Propose a mathematical model to optimize its reverse logistics network. A conceptual framework for designing a reverse logistics network has been developed through a combination of insights from the literature review and information gathered from company websites. This framework encompasses four key stages in the selection of reverse logistics operations modes: (1) Collection, (2) Sorting and testing, (3) Processing, and (4) Storage. Key factors to consider in reverse logistics network design: I) Centralized vs. decentralized processing: Centralized processing, a long-standing practice in reverse logistics, has recently gained greater attention from manufacturing companies. In this system, all products within the reverse logistics pipeline are brought to a central facility for sorting, processing, and subsequent shipment to their next destinations. Centralization offers the advantage of efficiently managing the reverse logistics flow, potentially leading to increased revenues from returned items. Moreover, it aids in determining the most appropriate reverse channel for handling returns. On the contrary, a decentralized system is more suitable when products are returned directly from consumers to retailers. In this scenario, individual sales outlets serve as gatekeepers for processing returns. Considerations encompass the product lifecycle, product value and cost, return volume, and the geographic distribution of returns. II) In-house vs. third-party logistics providers: The decision between insourcing and outsourcing in reverse logistics network design is pivotal. In insourcing, a company handles the entire reverse logistics process, including material reuse. In contrast, outsourcing involves third-party providers taking on various aspects of reverse logistics. Companies may choose outsourcing due to resource constraints or lack of expertise, with the extent of outsourcing varying based on factors such as personnel skills and cost considerations. Based on the conceptual framework, the authors have constructed a mathematical model that optimizes reverse logistics network design decisions. The model will consider key factors identified in the framework, such as transportation costs, facility capacities, and lead times. The authors have employed mixed LP to find the optimal solutions that minimize costs while meeting organizational objectives.

Keywords: reverse logistics, supply chain management, optimization, e-commerce

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Authors: Alexander Wachtel, Michael T. Franzen, Walter F. Tichy

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Programming requires years of training. With natural language and end user development methods, programming could become available to everyone. It enables end users to program their own devices and extend the functionality of the existing system without any knowledge of programming languages. In this paper, we describe an Interactive Spreadsheet Processing Module (ISPM), a natural language interface to spreadsheets that allows users to address ranges within the spreadsheet based on inferred table schema. Using the ISPM, end users are able to search for values in the schema of the table and to address the data in spreadsheets implicitly. Furthermore, it enables them to select and sort the spreadsheet data by using natural language. ISPM uses a machine learning technique to automatically infer areas within a spreadsheet, including different kinds of headers and data ranges. Since ranges can be identified from natural language queries, the end users can query the data using natural language. During the evaluation 12 undergraduate students were asked to perform operations (sum, sort, group and select) using the system and also Excel without ISPM interface, and the time taken for task completion was compared across the two systems. Only for the selection task did users take less time in Excel (since they directly selected the cells using the mouse) than in ISPM, by using natural language for end user software engineering, to overcome the present bottleneck of professional developers.

Keywords: natural language processing, natural language interfaces, human computer interaction, end user development, dialog systems, data recognition, spreadsheet

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Authors: Cheryl Forchuk, Sandra Fisman, Steve Cordes, Dan Catunto, Katherine Krakowski, Melissa Jeffrey, John D’Oria

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The discharge of youth aged 16-25 from hospital into homelessness is a prevalent issue despite research indicating social, safety, health and economic detriments on both the individual and community. Lack of stable housing for youth discharged into homelessness results in long-term consequences, including exacerbation of health problems and costly health care service use and hospital readmission. People experiencing homelessness are four times more likely to be readmitted within one month of discharge and hospitals must spend $2,559 more per client. Finding safe housing for these individuals is imperative to their recovery and transition back to the community. People discharged from hospital to homelessness experience challenges, including poor health outcomes and increased hospital readmissions. Youth are the fastest-growing subgroup of people experiencing homelessness in Canada. The needs of youth are unique and include supports related to education, employment opportunities, and age-related service barriers. This study aims to identify the needs of youth at risk of homelessness by evaluating the efficacy of the “Preventing Discharge to No Fixed Address – Youth” (NFA-Y) program, which aims to prevent youth from being discharged from hospital into homelessness. The program connects youth aged 16-25 who are inpatients at London Health Sciences Centre and St. Joseph’s Health Care London to housing and financial support. Supports are offered through collaboration with community partners: Youth Opportunities Unlimited, Canadian Mental Health Association Elgin Middlesex, City of London Coordinated Access, Ontario Works, and Salvation Army’s Housing Stability Bank. This study was reviewed and approved by Western University’s Research Ethics Board. A series of interviews are being conducted with approximately ninety-three youth participants at three time points: baseline (pre-discharge), six, and twelve months post-discharge. Focus groups with participants, health care providers, and community partners are being conducted at three-time points. In addition, administrative data from service providers will be collected and analyzed. Since homelessness has a detrimental effect on recovery, client and community safety, and healthcare expenditure, locating safe housing for psychiatric patients has had a positive impact on treatment, rehabilitation, and the system as a whole. If successful, the findings of this project will offer safe policy alternatives for the prevention of homelessness for at-risk youth, help set them up for success in their future years, and mitigate the rise of the homeless youth population in Canada.

Keywords: youth homelessness, no-fixed address, mental health, homelessness prevention, hospital discharge

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Authors: Laura Rueda-Gensini, Jader Rodríguez, Juan C. Cruz, Carolina Munoz-Camargo

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There is an emerging interest in botanicals and plant extracts for medicinal practices due to their widely reported health benefits. A large variety of phytochemicals found in plants have been correlated with antioxidant, immunomodulatory, and analgesic properties, which makes plant-derived products promising candidates for modulating the progression and treatment of numerous diseases. Non-centrifugal cane sugar (NCS), in particular, has been known for its high antioxidant and nutritional value, but composition-wise variability due to changing environmental and processing conditions have considerably limited its use in the nutraceutical and biomedical fields. This work is therefore aimed at assessing the effect of thermal exposure during NCS production over its bioactive composition and, in turn, its therapeutic value. Accordingly, two modified dehydration methods are proposed that employ: (i) vacuum-aided evaporation, which reduces the necessary temperatures to dehydrate the sample, and (ii) window refractance evaporation, which reduces thermal exposure time. The biochemical composition of NCS produced under these two methods was compared to traditionally-produced NCS by estimating their total polyphenolic and protein content with Folin-Ciocalteu and Bradford assays, as well as identifying the major phenolic compounds in each sample via HPLC-coupled mass spectrometry. Their antioxidant activities were also compared as measured by their scavenging potential of ABTS and DPPH radicals. Results show that the two modified production methods enhance polyphenolic and protein yield in resulting NCS samples when compared to traditional production methods. In particular, reducing employed temperatures with vacuum-aided evaporation demonstrated to be superior at preserving polyphenolic compounds, as evidenced both in the total and individual polyphenol concentrations. However, antioxidant activities were not significantly different between these. Although additional studies should be performed to determine if the observed compositional differences affect other therapeutic activities (e.g., anti-inflammatory, analgesic, and immunoprotective), these results suggest that reducing thermal exposure holds great promise for the production of natural products with enhanced nutritional value.

Keywords: non-centrifugal cane sugar, polyphenolic compounds, thermal processing, antioxidant activity

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Authors: Bolanle Deborah Motilewa, E. K. Rowland Worlu, Gbenga Mayowa Agboola, Ayodele Maxwell Olokundun

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Several studies have proposed a one-size fit all approach to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices, such that CSR as it applies to developed countries is adapted to developing countries, ignoring the differing institutional environments (such as the regulative, economic, social and political environments), which affects the profitability and practices of businesses operating in them. CSR as it applies to filling institutional gaps in developing countries, was categorized into four themes: environmental protection, product and service innovation, social innovation and local cluster development. Based on the four themes, the study employed a qualitative research approach through the use of interviews and review of available publications to study the influence of institutional environments on CSR practices engaged in by three renewable energy firms operating in Nigeria. Over the course of three 60-minutes sessions with the top management and selected workers of the firms, four propositions were made: regulatory environment influences environmental protection practice of Nigerian renewable firms, economic environment influences product and service innovation practice of Nigerian renewable energy firms, the social environment impacts on social innovation in Nigerian renewable energy firms, and political environment affects local cluster development practice of Nigerian renewable energy firms. It was also observed that beyond institutional environments, the international exposure of an organization’s managers reflected in their approach to CSR. This finding on the influence of international exposure on CSR practices creates an area for further study. Insights from this paper are set to help policy makers in developing countries, CSR managers, and future researchers.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, renewable energy firms, institutional environment, social entrepreneurship

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Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

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The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation

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Authors: E. Omanya, E. Mueni, G. Makau, M. Kariuki

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HIV infection is the strongest risk factor for a person to develop TB. Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) for People Living with HIV (PLWHIV) not only reduces the individual patients’ risk of developing active TB but mitigates cross infection. In Kenya, IPT for six months was recommended through the National TB, Leprosy and Lung Disease Program to treat latent TB. In spite of this recommendation by the national government, uptake of IPT among PLHIV remained low in Kenya by the end of 2015. The USAID/Kenya and East Africa Afya Jijini project, which supports 42 TBHIV health facilities in Nairobi County, began addressing low uptake of IPT through Quality Improvement (QI) teams set up at the facility level. Quality is characterized by WHO as one of the four main connectors between health systems building blocks and health systems outputs. Afya Jijini implements the Kenya Quality Model for Health, which involves QI teams being formed at the county, sub-county and facility levels. The teams review facility performance to identify gaps in service delivery and use QI tools to monitor and improve performance. Afya Jijini supported the formation of these teams in 42 facilities and built the teams’ capacity to review data and use QI principles to identify and address performance gaps. When the QI teams began working on improving IPT uptake among PLHIV, uptake was at 31.8%. The teams first conducted a root cause analysis using cause and effect diagrams, which help the teams to brainstorm on and to identify barriers to IPT uptake among PLHIV at the facility level. This is a participatory process where program staff provides technical support to the QI teams in problem identification and problem-solving. The gaps identified were inadequate knowledge and skills on the use of IPT among health care workers, lack of awareness of IPT by patients, inadequate monitoring and evaluation tools, and poor quantification and forecasting of IPT commodities. In response, Afya Jijini trained over 300 health care workers on the administration of IPT, supported patient education, supported quantification and forecasting of IPT commodities, and provided IPT data collection tools to help facilities monitor their performance. The facility QI teams conducted monthly meetings to monitor progress on implementation of IPT and took corrective action when necessary. IPT uptake improved from 31.8% to 61.2% during the second year of the Afya Jijini project and improved to 80.1% during the third year of the project’s support. Use of QI teams and root cause analysis to identify and address service delivery gaps, in addition to targeted program interventions and continual performance reviews, can be successful in increasing TB related service delivery uptake at health facilities.

Keywords: isoniazid, quality, health care workers, people leaving with HIV

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Authors: Jesus Carretero, Mario Vasile, Guillermo Izquierdo, Javier Garcia-Blas

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Currently, there is a so called ‘identity crisis’ in cybersecurity caused by the substantial security, privacy and usability shortcomings encountered in existing systems for identity management. Federated Identity Management (FIM) could be solution for this crisis, as it is a method that facilitates management of identity processes and policies among collaborating entities without enforcing a global consistency, that is difficult to achieve when there are ID legacy systems. To cope with this problem, the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) initiative proposed in 2014 a federated solution in anticipation of the adoption of the Regulation (EU) N°910/2014, the so-called eIDAS Regulation. At present, a network of eIDAS Nodes is being deployed at European level to allow that every citizen recognized by a member state is to be recognized within the trust network at European level, enabling the consumption of services in other member states that, until now were not allowed, or whose concession was tedious. This is a very ambitious approach, since it tends to enable cross-border authentication of Member States citizens without the need to unify the authentication method (eID Scheme) of the member state in question. However, this federation is currently managed by member states and it is initially applied only to citizens and public organizations. The goal of this paper is to present the results of a European Project, named eID@Cloud, that focuses on the integration of eID in 5 cloud platforms belonging to authentication service providers of different EU Member States to act as Service Providers (SP) for private entities. We propose an initiative based on a private eID Scheme both for natural and legal persons. The methodology followed in the eID@Cloud project is that each Identity Provider (IdP) is subscribed to an eIDAS Node Connector, requesting for authentication, that is subscribed to an eIDAS Node Proxy Service, issuing authentication assertions. To cope with high loads, load balancing is supported in the eIDAS Node. The eID@Cloud project is still going on, but we already have some important outcomes. First, we have deployed the federation identity nodes and tested it from the security and performance point of view. The pilot prototype has shown the feasibility of deploying this kind of systems, ensuring good performance due to the replication of the eIDAS nodes and the load balance mechanism. Second, our solution avoids the propagation of identity data out of the native domain of the user or entity being identified, which avoids problems well known in cybersecurity due to network interception, man in the middle attack, etc. Last, but not least, this system allows to connect any country or collectivity easily, providing incremental development of the network and avoiding difficult political negotiations to agree on a single authentication format (which would be a major stopper).

Keywords: cybersecurity, identity federation, trust, user authentication

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Authors: Dalia Kubiliūtė

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Lithuania is known as a trusted location for global business institutions, and it attracts investors with it’s competitive environment for financial service providers. Along with the aspiration to offer a strong results-oriented and innovations-driven environment for financial service providers, Lithuanian regulatory authorities consistently implement the European Union's high regulatory standards for financial activities, including sustainability-related disclosures. Since European Union directed its policy towards transition to a climate-neutral, green, competitive, and inclusive economy, additional regulatory requirements for financial market participants are adopted: disclosure of sustainable activities, transparency, prevention of greenwashing, etc. The financial sector is one of the key factors influencing the implementation of sustainability objectives in European Union policies and mitigating the negative effects of climate change –public funds are not enough to make a significant impact on sustainable investments, therefore directing public and private capital to green projects may help to finance the necessary changes. The topic of the study is original and has not yet been widely analyzed in Lithuanian legal discourse. There are used quantitative and qualitative methodologies, logical, systematic, and critical analysis principles; hence the aim of this study is to reveal the problem of the implementation of the regulation on sustainability in the Lithuanian financial sector. Additional regulatory requirements could cause serious changes in financial business operations: additional funds, employees, and time have to be dedicated in order for the companies could implement these regulations. Lack of knowledge and data on how to implement new regulatory requirements towards sustainable reporting causes a lot of uncertainty for financial market participants. And for some companies, it might even be an essential point in terms of business continuity. It is considered that the supervisory authorities should find a balance between financial market needs and legal regulation.

Keywords: financial, legal, regulatory, sustainability

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Authors: Logan Carmichael

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As the world’s governments seek to increasingly digitize their service provisions, there exists a subsequent and fully valid concern about the security underpinning these digital governance provisions. Estonia, a small and innovative Baltic nation, has been refining both its digital governance structure and cybersecurity mechanisms for over three decades and has been praised as global ‘best practice’ in both fields. However, the security of the Estonian digital governance system has been ever-evolving and significantly shaped by cybersecurity crises. This paper examines said crises – 2007 cyberattacks on Estonian government, banks, and news media; the 2017 e-ID crisis; the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine – and how governance decision-making following these crises has shaped the cybersecurity of the digital governance structure in Estonia. This paper employs a blended constructivist and historical institutionalist theoretical approach as a useful means to view governance and decision-making in the wake of cybersecurity incidents affecting the Estonian digital governance structure. Together, these theoretical groundings frame the topics of cybersecurity and digital governance in an Estonian context through a lens of ideation and experience, as well as institutional path dependencies over time and cybersecurity crises as critical junctures to study. Furthermore, this paper takes a qualitative approach, employing discourse analysis, policy analysis, and elite interviewing of Estonian officials involved in digital governance and cybersecurity in order to glean nuanced perspectives into the processes that followed these four crises. Ultimately, the results of this paper will offer insight into how governments undertake policy-driven change following cybersecurity crises to ensure sufficient security of their digitized service provisions. This paper’s findings are informative not only in continued decision-making in the Estonian system but also in other states currently implementing a digital governance structure, for which security mechanisms are of the utmost importance.

Keywords: cybersecurity, digital governance, Estonia, crisis management, governance in crisis

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Authors: Xin Li

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The uncertainty and the complexity of the urban environment combining with the threat of climate change are contributing factors to the vulnerability in multiple-dimensions in Chinese megacities, especially in Shanghai. The urban area occupied high valuable technological infrastructure and density buildings is under the threats of climate change and can provide insufficient ecological service to remain the trade-off on urban sustainable development. Urban ecological-based adaptation (UEbA) combines practices and theoretical work and integrates ecological services into multiple-layers of urban environment planning in order to reduce the impact of the complexity and uncertainty. To understand and to respond to the challenges in the urban level, this paper considers Shanghai as the research objective. It is necessary that its urban adaptation strategies should be reflected and contain the concept and knowledge of EbA. In this paper, we firstly use software to illustrates the visualizing patterns and trends of UEBA research in the current 10 years. Specifically, Citespace software was used for interpreting the significant hubs, landmarks points of peer-reviewed literature on the context of ecological service research in recent 10 years. Secondly, 135 evidence-based EbA literature were reviewed for categorizing the methodologies and framework of evidence-based EbA by the systematic map protocol. Finally, a conceptual framework combined with culture, economic and social components was developed in order to assess the current adaptation strategies in Shanghai. This research founds that the key to reducing urban vulnerability does not only focus on co-benefit arguments but also should pay more attention to the concept of trade-off. This research concludes that the designed framework can provide key knowledge and indicates the essential gap as a valuable tool against climate variability in the process of urban adaptation in Shanghai.

Keywords: urban ecological-based adaptation, climate change, sustainable development, climate variability

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Authors: Tannistha Dasgupta

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This study explores the aspects of second language (L2) spoken fluency that are related to L2 linguistic knowledge and processing skill. It draws on Levelt’s ‘blueprint’ of the L2 speaker which discusses the cognitive issues underlying the act of speaking. However, L2 speaking assessments have largely neglected the underlying mechanism involved in language production; emphasis is given on the relationship between subjective ratings of L2 speech sample and objectively measured aspects of fluency. Hence, in this study, the relation between L2 linguistic knowledge and processing skill i.e. Cognitive Fluency (CF), and objectively measurable aspects of L2 spoken fluency i.e. Utterance Fluency (UF) is examined. The participants of the study are L2 learners of English, studying at high school level in Hyderabad, India. 50 participants with intermediate level of proficiency in English performed several lexical retrieval tasks and attention-shifting tasks to measure CF, and 8 oral tasks to measure UF. Each aspect of UF (speed, pause, and repair) were measured against the scores of CF to find out those aspects of UF which are reliable indicators of CF. Quantitative analysis of the data shows that among the three aspects of UF; speed is the best predictor of CF, and pause is weakly related to CF. The study suggests that including the speed aspect of UF could make L2 fluency assessment more reliable, valid, and objective. Thus, incorporating the assessment of psycholinguistic mechanisms into L2 spoken fluency testing, could result in fairer evaluation.

Keywords: attention-shifting, cognitive fluency, lexical retrieval, utterance fluency

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Authors: Andrei Nosov

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This paper discusses the development directions of dialogue systems within the digitalisation of the railway industry, where technologies based on conversational AI are already potentially applied or will be applied. Conversational AI is one of the popular natural language processing (NLP) tasks, as it has great prospects for real-world applications today. At the same time, it is a challenging task as it involves many areas of NLP based on complex computations and deep insights from linguistics and psychology. In this review, we focus on dialogue systems and their implementation in the railway domain. We comprehensively review the state-of-the-art research results on dialogue systems and analyse them from three perspectives: type of problem to be solved, type of model, and type of system. In particular, from the perspective of the type of tasks to be solved, we discuss characteristics and applications. This will help to understand how to prioritise tasks. In terms of the type of models, we give an overview that will allow researchers to become familiar with how to apply them in dialogue systems. By analysing the types of dialogue systems, we propose an unconventional approach in contrast to colleagues who traditionally contrast goal-oriented dialogue systems with open-domain systems. Our view focuses on considering retrieval and generative approaches. Furthermore, the work comprehensively presents evaluation methods and datasets for dialogue systems in the railway domain to pave the way for future research. Finally, some possible directions for future research are identified based on recent research results.

Keywords: digitalisation, railway, dialogue systems, conversational AI, natural language processing, natural language understanding, natural language generation

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Authors: Mai Sirhan, Arieh Sidess

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Asphaltic mixture is a heterogeneous material composed of three main components: aggregates; bitumen and air voids. The professional experience and scientific literature categorize asphaltic mixture as a viscoelastic material, whose behavior is determined by temperature and loading rate. Properties characterization of the asphaltic mixture used under the service conditions is done by compacting and testing cylindric asphalt samples in the laboratory. These samples must resemble in a high degree internal structure of the mixture achieved in service, and the mechanical characteristics of the compacted asphalt layer in the pavement. The laboratory samples are usually compacted in temperatures between 140 and 160 degrees Celsius. In this temperature range, the asphalt has a low degree of strength. The laboratory samples are compacted using the dynamic or vibrational compaction methods. In the compaction process, the aggregates tend to align themselves in certain directions that lead to anisotropic behavior of the asphaltic mixture. This issue has been studied in the Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) research, that recommended using the gyratory compactor based on the assumption that this method is the best in mimicking the compaction in the service. In Israel, the Netivei Israel company is considering adopting the Gyratory Method as a replacement for the Marshall method used today. Therefore, the compatibility of the Gyratory Method for the use with Israeli asphaltic mixtures should be investigated. In this research, we aimed to examine the impact of the compaction method used on the mechanical characteristics of the asphaltic mixtures and to evaluate the degree of anisotropy in relation to the compaction method. In order to carry out this research, samples have been compacted in the vibratory and gyratory compactors. These samples were cylindrically cored both vertically (compaction wise) and horizontally (perpendicular to compaction direction). These models were tested under dynamic modulus and permanent deformation tests. The comparable results of the tests proved that: (1) specimens compacted by the vibratory compactor had higher dynamic modulus values than the specimens compacted by the gyratory compactor (2) both vibratory and gyratory compacted specimens had anisotropic behavior, especially in high temperatures. Also, the degree of anisotropy is higher in specimens compacted by the gyratory method. (3) Specimens compacted by the vibratory method that were cored vertically had the highest resistance to rutting. On the other hand, specimens compacted by the vibratory method that were cored horizontally had the lowest resistance to rutting. Additionally (4) these differences between the different types of specimens rise mainly due to the different internal arrangement of aggregates resulting from the compaction method. (5) Based on the initial prediction of the performance of the flexible pavement containing an asphalt layer having characteristics based on the results achieved in this research. It can be concluded that there is a significant impact of the compaction method and the degree of anisotropy on the strains that develop in the pavement, and the resistance of the pavement to fatigue and rutting defects.

Keywords: anisotropy, asphalt compaction, dynamic modulus, gyratory compactor, mechanical properties, permanent deformation, vibratory compactor

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Authors: Cristina Hotoleanu

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Introduction: The recent Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the development of e-health, including telemedicine, smartphone applications, and medical wearable devices. Providing remote teleconsultations supposes challenges which may require further face-to-face medical interactions. The aim of this study was to assess the correlation between the types of teleconsultations and the need of onsite medical services (investigations and medical visits) for the diagnosis and treatment. Methods: a retrospective study including all the teleconsultations using the platform offered by a telehealth provider in Romania (Telios Care SA) between May 1, 2021- April 30, 2022, was performed. Binary data were analysed using the chi-square test with a significance level of p < 0.05. Results: out of 7163 consultations, 3961 were phone calls, 1981 were online messages, and 1221 were video calls. Onsite medical services were indicated in 3327 (46.44%) cases; the onsite investigations or the onsite visits were recommended for 2908 patients as follows: 2326 in case of phone calls, 582 in case of online messages, none in case of video calls. Both onsite investigations and visits were indicated for 419 patients. The need for onsite additional medical services was significantly higher in the case of phone calls than in the other 2 types of teleconsultations (Chi square= 1207.06, p= 0.00001). The indication for onsite services was done mainly after teleconsultations covering medical specialties (87.34%), significantly higher than the other specialties (Chi square=914.59, p=0.00001). Teleconsultations in surgical specialties and other fields (pharmacy, dentistry, psychology, wellbeing- nutrition, fitness) resulted in 12.13%, respective less than 1%, indication for onsite investigations or visits, explained by using of video calls in most of the cases. Conclusion: a further onsite medical service was necessary in less than a half of the teleconsultations. This indication was done mainly after phone calls and teleconsultations in medical specialties. Video calls were used mostly in psychology, nutrition, and fitness teleconsultations and did not require a further onsite medical service. Other studies are necessary to assess better the types of teleconsultations and the specialties bringing the biggest benefit for the patients.

Keywords: onsite medical services, phone calls, teleconsultations, telemedicine

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Authors: Azita Ramezani, Ghazal Mashhadiagha, Bahareh Sanabakhsh

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This study researches the combination of Random. Forest classifiers with large language models (LLMs) and natural language processing (NLP) to improve diagnostic accuracy in chest X-ray analysis using the Indiana University dataset. Utilizing advanced NLP techniques, the research preprocesses textual data from radiological reports to extract key features, which are then merged with image-derived data. This improved dataset is analyzed with Random Forest classifiers to predict specific clinical results, focusing on the identification of health issues and the estimation of case urgency. The findings reveal that the combination of NLP, LLMs, and machine learning not only increases diagnostic precision but also reliability, especially in quickly identifying critical conditions. Achieving an accuracy of 99.35%, the model shows significant advancements over conventional diagnostic techniques. The results emphasize the large potential of machine learning in medical imaging, suggesting that these technologies could greatly enhance clinician judgment and patient outcomes by offering quicker and more precise diagnostic approximations.

Keywords: natural language processing (NLP), large language models (LLMs), random forest classifier, chest x-ray analysis, medical imaging, diagnostic accuracy, indiana university dataset, machine learning in healthcare, predictive modeling, clinical decision support systems

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Authors: Xu Jiaqiao

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Text sentiment analysis is an important branch of natural language processing. This technology is widely used in public opinion analysis and web surfing recommendations. At present, the mainstream sentiment analysis methods include three parts: sentiment analysis based on a sentiment dictionary, based on traditional machine learning, and based on deep learning. This paper mainly analyzes and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the SVM method of traditional machine learning and the Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) method of deep learning in the field of Chinese sentiment analysis, using Chinese comments on Sina Microblog as the data set. Firstly, this paper classifies and adds labels to the original comment dataset obtained by the web crawler, and then uses Jieba word segmentation to classify the original dataset and remove stop words. After that, this paper extracts text feature vectors and builds document word vectors to facilitate the training of the model. Finally, SVM and LSTM models are trained respectively. After accuracy calculation, it can be obtained that the accuracy of the LSTM model is 85.80%, while the accuracy of SVM is 91.07%. But at the same time, LSTM operation only needs 2.57 seconds, SVM model needs 6.06 seconds. Therefore, this paper concludes that: compared with the SVM model, the LSTM model is worse in accuracy but faster in processing speed.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, support vector machine, long short-term memory, Chinese microblog comments

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Authors: Zunaira Zaman, David Bohannon

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This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) for detecting security vulnerabilities in source code. The research aims to assist organizations with large application portfolios and limited security testing capabilities in prioritizing security activities. ML-based approaches offer benefits such as increased confidence scores, false positives and negatives tuning, and automated feedback. The initial approach using natural language processing techniques to extract features achieved 86% accuracy during the training phase but suffered from overfitting and performed poorly on unseen datasets during testing. To address these issues, the study proposes using the abstract syntax tree (AST) for Java and C++ codebases to capture code semantics and structure and generate path-context representations for each function. The Code2Vec model architecture is used to learn distributed representations of source code snippets for training a machine-learning classifier for vulnerability prediction. The study evaluates the performance of the proposed methodology using two datasets and compares the results with existing approaches. The Devign dataset yielded 60% accuracy in predicting vulnerable code snippets and helped resist overfitting, while the Juliet Test Suite predicted specific vulnerabilities such as OS-Command Injection, Cryptographic, and Cross-Site Scripting vulnerabilities. The Code2Vec model achieved 75% accuracy and a 98% recall rate in predicting OS-Command Injection vulnerabilities. The study concludes that even partial AST representations of source code can be useful for vulnerability prediction. The approach has the potential for automated intelligent analysis of source code, including vulnerability prediction on unseen source code. State-of-the-art models using natural language processing techniques and CNN models with ensemble modelling techniques did not generalize well on unseen data and faced overfitting issues. However, predicting vulnerabilities in source code using machine learning poses challenges such as high dimensionality and complexity of source code, imbalanced datasets, and identifying specific types of vulnerabilities. Future work will address these challenges and expand the scope of the research.

Keywords: code embeddings, neural networks, natural language processing, OS command injection, software security, code properties

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Authors: Mohammad A. Bani-Khaled

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In this work we use the Discrete Proper Orthogonal Decomposition transform to characterize the properties of coupled dynamics in thin-walled beams by exploiting numerical simulations obtained from finite element simulations. The outcomes of the will improve our understanding of the linear and nonlinear coupled behavior of thin-walled beams structures. Thin-walled beams have widespread usage in modern engineering application in both large scale structures (aeronautical structures), as well as in nano-structures (nano-tubes). Therefore, detailed knowledge in regard to the properties of coupled vibrations and buckling in these structures are of great interest in the research community. Due to the geometric complexity in the overall structure and in particular in the cross-sections it is necessary to involve computational mechanics to numerically simulate the dynamics. In using numerical computational techniques, it is not necessary to over simplify a model in order to solve the equations of motions. Computational dynamics methods produce databases of controlled resolution in time and space. These numerical databases contain information on the properties of the coupled dynamics. In order to extract the system dynamic properties and strength of coupling among the various fields of the motion, processing techniques are required. Time- Proper Orthogonal Decomposition transform is a powerful tool for processing databases for the dynamics. It will be used to study the coupled dynamics of thin-walled basic structures. These structures are ideal to form a basis for a systematic study of coupled dynamics in structures of complex geometry.

Keywords: coupled dynamics, geometric complexity, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), thin walled beams

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Authors: Sophia Ming Lee Wen, Chao-Ching Kuo, Yu-Line Hu, Yu-Lung Ho, Chih-Cheng Huang, Yi-Hwa Lee

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Teaching and learning should involve social issues by which effectiveness and humanity is due consideration as a guideline for sharing and co-creating knowledge. A qualitative method was used after a pioneer study to confirm pre-service teachers’ awareness of open knowledge. There are 17 in-service teacher candidates sampling from 181 schools in Taiwan. Two questions are to resolve: a) How did teachers change their educational ideas, in particular, their attitudes to meet the needs of knowledge sharing and co-creativity; and b) How did they acknowledge the necessity of working out an appropriate way between the educational efficiency and the nature of education for high performance management. This interview investigated teachers’ attitude of sharing and co-creating knowledge. The results show two facts in Taiwan: A) Individuals who must be able to express themselves will be capable of taking part in an open learning environment; and B) Teachers must lead the direction to inspire high performance and improve students’ capacity via knowledge sharing and co-creating knowledge, according to the student-centered philosophy. Collected data from interviewing showed that the teachers were well aware of changing their teaching methods and make some improvements to balance the educational efficiency and the nature of education. Almost all teachers acknowledge that ICT is helpful to motivate learning enthusiasm. Further, teaching integrated with ICT saves teachers’ time and energy on teaching preparation and promoting effectiveness. Teachers are willing to co-create knowledge with students, though using information is not easy due to the lack of operating skills of the website and ICT. Some teachers are against to co-create knowledge in the informational background since they hold that is not feasible for there being a knowledge gap between teachers and students. Technology would easily mislead teachers and students to the goal of instrumental rationality, which makes pedagogy dysfunctional and inhumane; however, any high quality of teaching should take a dialectical balance between effectiveness and humanity.

Keywords: critical thinking, dialectic between effectiveness and humanity, open knowledge, pedagogy

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Authors: Abobaker Mohammed Qasem Farhan, Shangming Yang, Mohammed Al-Nehari

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Pneumonia is a kind of lung disease that creates congestion in the chest. Such pneumonic conditions lead to loss of life of the severity of high congestion. Pneumonic lung disease is caused by viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, or Covidi-19 induced pneumonia. The early prediction and classification of such lung diseases help to reduce the mortality rate. We propose the automatic Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) system in this paper using the deep learning approach. The proposed CAD system takes input from raw computerized tomography (CT) scans of the patient's chest and automatically predicts disease classification. We designed the Hybrid Deep Learning Algorithm (HDLA) to improve accuracy and reduce processing requirements. The raw CT scans have pre-processed first to enhance their quality for further analysis. We then applied a hybrid model that consists of automatic feature extraction and classification. We propose the robust 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model to extract the automatic features from the pre-processed CT image. This CNN model assures feature learning with extremely effective 1D feature extraction for each input CT image. The outcome of the 2D CNN model is then normalized using the Min-Max technique. The second step of the proposed hybrid model is related to training and classification using different classifiers. The simulation outcomes using the publically available dataset prove the robustness and efficiency of the proposed model compared to state-of-art algorithms.

Keywords: CT scan, Covid-19, deep learning, image processing, lung disease classification

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Authors: Latha Nataraj, Todd Henry, Micheal Wallock, Asha Hall, Christine Hatter, Babak Anasori, Yury Gogotsi

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Multifunctional composites with enhanced strength and toughness for superior damage tolerance are essential for advanced aerospace and military applications. Detection of structural changes prior to visible damage may be achieved by incorporating fillers with tunable properties such as two-dimensional (2D) nanomaterials with high aspect ratios and more surface-active sites. While 2D graphene with large surface areas, good mechanical properties, and high electrical conductivity seems ideal as a filler, the single-atomic thickness can lead to bending and rolling during processing, requiring post-processing to bond to polymer matrices. Lately, an emerging family of 2D transition metal carbides and nitrides, MXenes, has attracted much attention since their discovery in 2011. Metallic electronic conductivity and good mechanical properties, even with increased polymer content, coupled with hydrophilicity make MXenes a good candidate as a filler material in polymer composites and exceptional as multifunctional damage indicators in composites. Here, we systematically study MXene-based (Ti₃C₂) coated on glass fibers for fiber reinforced polymer composite for self-sensing using microscopy and micromechanical testing. Further testing is in progress through the investigation of local variations in optical, acoustic, and thermal properties within the damage sites in response to strain caused by mechanical loading.

Keywords: damage sensing, fiber composites, MXene, self-sensing

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Authors: Parsa Keyvani, Alistair Phillips, David Warwick

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Background: The current process for gaining patient consent for hand and wrist surgery at University Hospital Southampton (UHS) is paper-based and makes use of generic forms provided by the NHS and no patient information leaflet is available relating to hand and wrist surgery. Aims: To evaluate the process of obtaining clinical consent and suggest ways in which the service can be improved. Methods: A log-book review of four orthopaedic surgeons at UHS was carried out over a three-month period in order to identify the 10 most common types of elective hand and wrist surgeries performed. A literature review was carried out to identify the complications of these surgeries. The surgeries were then divided into 6 types: nerve, bone, ligament, joint, tendon and dupuytren’s surgery. A digitised consent form was created covering the complications of all 6 surgery types. Finally, the surgeons at the orthopaedic department of UHS were asked whether they prefer the old paper-based or the digitised consent form. Results: All of the surgeons felt that the procedure type-based form was easier to read, use and understand. Conclusion: This research highlights a number of problems related to the use of current NHS consent forms. The proposed solution is to use a set of digitised, procedure type-based consent forms. Digital consent forms can be filled in in advance and sent to the patient electronically along with any relevant information leaflets, thus giving them time to absorb the information and come up with any questions before they have their pre-procedure discussion with their doctor. This would allow the doctor to focus the consultation on the patient rather than writing out the consent form and would ultimately be a step forward in making the NHS a global digital leader and fully embrace the opportunity offered by technology.

Keywords: digitised consent form, elective surgery, hand surgery complications, informed consent, procedure type-based consent form

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Authors: Rahul Malhotra

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Fiber based access networks can deliver performance that can support the increasing demands for high speed connections. One of the new technologies that have emerged in recent years is Passive Optical Networks. This paper is targeted to show the simultaneous delivery of triple play service (data, voice and video). The comparative investigation and suitability of various data rates is presented. It is demonstrated that as we increase the data rate, number of users to be accommodated decreases due to increase in bit error rate.

Keywords: BER, PON, TDMPON, GPON, CWDM, OLT, ONT

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Authors: Chong-Yang Qiao

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Mobile augmented reality (MAR) tracking targets from the surroundings and aids operators for interactive data and procedures visualization, potential equipment and system understandably. Operators remotely communicate and coordinate with each other for the continuous tasks, information and data exchange between control room and work-site. In the routine work, distributed control system (DCS) monitoring and work-site manipulation require operators interact in real-time manners. The critical question is the improvement of user experience in cooperative works through applying Augmented Reality in the traditional industrial field. The purpose of this exploratory study is to find the cognitive model for the multiple task performance by MAR. In particular, the focus will be on the comparison between different tasks and environment factors which influence information processing. Three experiments use interface and interaction design, the content of start-up, maintenance and stop embedded in the mobile application. With the evaluation criteria of time demands and human errors, and analysis of the mental process and the behavior action during the multiple tasks, heuristic evaluation was used to find the operators performance with different situation factors, and record the information processing in recognition, interpretation, judgment and reasoning. The research will find the functional properties of MAR and constrain the development of the cognitive model. Conclusions can be drawn that suggest MAR is easy to use and useful for operators in the remote collaborative works.

Keywords: mobile augmented reality, remote collaboration, user experience, cognition model

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Authors: Ye Zhang, Chuanjun Liu

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In-service aircraft is exposed to different types of threaten, e.g. bird strike, ground vehicle impact, and run-way debris, or even lightning strike, etc. To satisfy the aircraft damage tolerance design requirements, the designer has to understand the threatening level for different types of the aircraft structures, either metallic or composite. Exposing to low-velocity impacts may produce very serious internal damages such as delaminations and matrix cracks without leaving visible mark onto the impacted surfaces for composite structures. This internal damage can cause significant reduction in the load carrying capacity of structures. The semi-probabilistic method provides a practical and proper approximation to establish the impact-threat based energy cut-off level for the damage tolerance evaluation of the aircraft components. Thus, the probabilistic distribution of impact threat and the realistic impact energy level cut-offs are the essential establishments required for the certification of aircraft composite structures. A new survey of impact threat to civil aircraft in-service has recently been carried out based on field records concerning around 500 civil aircrafts (mainly single aisles) and more than 4.8 million flight hours. In total 1,006 damages caused by low-velocity impact events had been screened out from more than 8,000 records including impact dents, scratches, corrosions, delaminations, cracks etc. The impact threat dependency on the location of the aircraft structures and structural configuration was analyzed. Although the survey was mainly focusing on the metallic structures, the resulting low-energy impact data are believed likely representative to general civil aircraft, since the service environments and the maintenance operations are independent of the materials of the structures. The probability of impact damage occurrence (Po) and impact energy exceedance (Pe) are the two key parameters for describing the statistic distribution of impact threat. With the impact damage events from the survey, Po can be estimated as 2.1x10-4 per flight hour. Concerning the calculation of Pe, a numerical model was developed using the commercial FEA software ABAQUS to backward estimate the impact energy based on the visible damage characteristics. The relationship between the visible dent depth and impact energy was established and validated by drop-weight impact experiments. Based on survey results, Pe was calculated and assumed having a log-linear relationship versus the impact energy. As the product of two aforementioned probabilities, Po and Pe, it is reasonable and conservative to assume Pa=PoxPe=10-5, which indicates that the low-velocity impact events are similarly likely as the Limit Load events. Combing Pa with two probabilities Po and Pe obtained based on the field survey, the cutoff level of realistic impact energy was estimated and valued as 34 J. In summary, a new survey was recently done on field records of civil aircraft to investigate the probabilistic distribution of impact threat. Based on the data, two probabilities, Po and Pe, were obtained. Considering a conservative assumption of Pa, the cutoff energy level for the realistic impact energy has been determined, which provides potential applicability in damage tolerance certification of future civil aircraft.

Keywords: composite structure, damage tolerance, impact threat, probabilistic

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Authors: D. F. Carvalho, A. O. Uscamayta, J. C. Guerrero, H. F. Oliveira, P. M. Azevedo-Marques

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The creation of vector contours slices (ROIs) on body silhouettes in oncologic patients is an important step during the radiotherapy planning in clinic and hospitals to ensure the accuracy of oncologic treatment. The radiotherapy planning of patients is performed by complex softwares focused on analysis of tumor regions, protection of organs at risk (OARs) and calculation of radiation doses for anomalies (tumors). These softwares are supplied for a few manufacturers and run over sophisticated workstations with vector processing presenting a cost of approximately twenty thousand dollars. The Brazilian project SIPRAD (Radiotherapy Planning System) presents a proposal adapted to the emerging countries reality that generally does not have the monetary conditions to acquire some radiotherapy planning workstations, resulting in waiting queues for new patients treatment. The SIPRAD project is composed by a set of integrated and interoperabilities softwares that are able to execute all stages of radiotherapy planning on simple personal computers (PCs) in replace to the workstations. The goal of this work is to present an image processing technique, computationally feasible, that is able to perform an automatic contour delineation in patient body silhouettes (SIPRAD-Body). The SIPRAD-Body technique is performed in tomography slices under grayscale images, extending their use with a greedy algorithm in three dimensions. SIPRAD-Body creates an irregular polyhedron with the Canny Edge adapted algorithm without the use of preprocessing filters, as contrast and brightness. In addition, comparing the technique SIPRAD-Body with existing current solutions is reached a contours similarity at least 78%. For this comparison is used four criteria: contour area, contour length, difference between the mass centers and Jaccard index technique. SIPRAD-Body was tested in a set of oncologic exams provided by the Clinical Hospital of the University of Sao Paulo (HCRP-USP). The exams were applied in patients with different conditions of ethnology, ages, tumor severities and body regions. Even in case of services that have already workstations, it is possible to have SIPRAD working together PCs because of the interoperability of communication between both systems through the DICOM protocol that provides an increase of workflow. Therefore, the conclusion is that SIPRAD-Body technique is feasible because of its degree of similarity in both new radiotherapy planning services and existing services.

Keywords: radiotherapy, image processing, DICOM RT, Treatment Planning System (TPS)

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Authors: J. Waita, S. Wamuhu, J. Makoyo, M. Rachel, T. Ngangari, W. Christine, M. Zipporah

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Contraceptive use is one of the key global strategies to alleviate maternal mortality. Global efforts through advocating for contraceptive uptake and service provision has led improved contraceptive prevalence. In Kenya maternal mortality rate has remained a challenged despites efforts by government and non-governmental organizations. Objective: To describe the uptake of contraceptives among women in Tunza Clinics, Kenya. Design and Methods: Ps Kenya through health care marketing fund is implementing a family planning program among its 350 Tunza fractional franchise facilities. Through private partnership, private owned facilities in low socio-economic areas are recruited and trained on contraceptive technology update. The providers are supported through facilitative supervision through a mobile based application Health Network Quality Improvement System (HNQIS) and interpersonal communication through 150 community based volunteers. The data analyzed in this paper was collected between January to July 2017 to show the uptake of modern Contraceptives among women in the Tunza franchise, method mix, age and distribution among the age bracket. Further analysis compares two different service delivery strategies; outreach and walk ins. Supportive supervision HNQIS scores was analyzed. Results: During the time period, a total of 132121 family planning clients were attended in 350 facilities. The average age of clients was 29.6 years. The average number of clients attended in the facilities per month was 18874. 73.7 %( n=132121) of the clients attended in the Tunza facilities were aged above 25 years while 22.1% 20-24 years and 4.2% 15-19 years. On contraceptive method mix, intra uterine device insertions clients contributed to 7.5%, implant insertions 15.3%, pills 11.2%, injections 62.7% while condoms and emergency pills had 2.7% and 0.6% respectively. Analysis of service delivery strategy indicated more than 79% of the clients were walk ins while 21% were attended to during outreaches. Uptake of long term contraceptive methods during outreaches was 73% of the clients while short term modern methods were 27%. Health Network Quality Improvement system assessment scores indicated 51% of the facilities scored over 90%, 25% scoring 80-89% while 21% scored below 80%. Conclusion: Preference for short term methods by women is possibly associated to cost as they are cheaper and easy to administer. When the cost of intra uterine device Implants is meant affordable during outreaches, the uptake is observed to increase. Making intra uterine device and implants affordable to women is a key strategy in increasing contraceptive prevalence hence averting maternal mortality.

Keywords: contraceptives, contraceptive uptake, low socio economic, supportive supervision

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 89