Search results for: real estate valuation model

Authors: Abubakar Dikko

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The research investigates the causes of unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa, and the role of Capital Accumulation in reducing the unemployment profile of these economies as proposed by the post-Keynesian economics. This is conducted through extensive review of literature on the NAIRU models and focused on the post-Keynesian view of unemployment within the NAIRU framework. The NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) model has become a dominant framework used in macroeconomic analysis of unemployment. The study views the post-Keynesian economics arguments that capital accumulation is a major determinant of unemployment. Unemployment remains the fundamental socio-economic challenge facing African economies. It has been a burden to citizens of those economies. Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa are great African nations battling with high unemployment rates. In 2013, the countries recorded high unemployment rates of 16.9%, 23.9% and 24.9% respectively. Most of the unemployed in these economies comprises of youth. Roughly about 40% working age South Africans has jobs, whereas in Nigeria and Namibia is less than that. Unemployment in Africa has wide implications on households which has led to extensive poverty and inequality, and created a rampant criminality. Recently in South Africa there has been a case of xenophobic attacks which were caused by the citizens of the country as a result of unemployment. The high unemployment rate in the country led the citizens to chase away foreigners in the country claiming that they have taken away their jobs. The study proposes that there is a strong relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa, and capital accumulation is responsible for high unemployment rates in these countries. For the economies to achieve steady state level of employment and satisfactory level of economic growth and development there is need for capital accumulation to take place. The countries in the study have been selected after a critical research and investigations. They are selected based on the following criteria; African economies with high unemployment rates above 15% and have about 40% of their workforce unemployed. This level of unemployment is the critical level of unemployment in Africa as expressed by International Labour Organization (ILO). The African countries with low level of capital accumulation. Adequate statistical measures have been employed using a time-series analysis in the study and the results revealed that capital accumulation is the main driver of unemployment performance in the chosen African countries. An increase in the accumulation of capital causes unemployment to reduce significantly. The results of the research work will be useful and relevant to federal governments and ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) of Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa to resolve the issue of high and persistent unemployment rates in their economies which are great burden that slows growth and development of developing economies. Also, the result can be useful to World Bank, African Development Bank and International Labour Organization (ILO) in their further research and studies on how to tackle unemployment in developing and emerging economies.

Keywords: capital accumulation, unemployment, NAIRU, Post-Keynesian economics

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Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

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Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

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Authors: Berhanu Keno Terfa

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Flash floods are among the most dangerous natural disasters that pose a significant threat to human existence. They occur frequently and can cause extensive damage to homes, infrastructure, and ecosystems while also claiming lives. Although flash floods can happen anywhere in the world, their impact is particularly severe in developing countries due to limited financial resources, inadequate drainage systems, substandard housing options, lack of early warning systems, and insufficient preparedness. To address these challenges, a comprehensive study has been undertaken to analyze and map flood inundation using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques by considering various factors that contribute to flash flood resilience and developing effective mitigation strategies. Key factors considered in the analysis include slope, drainage density, elevation, Curve Number, rainfall patterns, land-use/cover classes, and soil data. These variables were computed using ArcGIS software platforms, and data from the Sentinel-2 satellite image (with a 10-meter resolution) were utilized for land-use/cover classification. Additionally, slope, elevation, and drainage density data were generated from the 12.5-meter resolution of the ALOS Palsar DEM, while other relevant data were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute. By integrating and regularizing the collected data through GIS and employing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, the study successfully delineated flash flood hazard zones (FFHs) and generated a suitable land map for urban agriculture. The FFH model identified four levels of risk in Bishoftu City: very high (2106.4 ha), high (10464.4 ha), moderate (1444.44 ha), and low (0.52 ha), accounting for 15.02%, 74.7%, 10.1%, and 0.004% of the total area, respectively. The results underscore the vulnerability of many residential areas in Bishoftu City, particularly the central areas that have been previously developed. Accurate spatial representation of flood-prone areas and potential agricultural zones is crucial for designing effective flood mitigation and agricultural production plans. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of flood risk mapping in raising public awareness, demonstrating vulnerability, strengthening financial resilience, protecting the environment, and informing policy decisions. Given the susceptibility of Bishoftu City to flash floods, it is recommended that the municipality prioritize urban agriculture adaptation, proper settlement planning, and drainage network design.

Keywords: remote sensing, flush flood hazards, Bishoftu, GIS.

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Authors: Juliana C. Salvadori, Jose Carlos Felix

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This paper aims at discussing the role literary translation has played in Brazilian Concrete Poetry Movement – an aesthetic, critical and pedagogical project which conceived translation as poiesis, i.e., as both creative and critic work in which the potency (dynamic) of literary work is unfolded in the interpretive and critic act (energeia) the translating practice demands. We argue that translation, for concrete poets, is conceived within the framework provided by the reinterpretation –or deglutition– of Oswald de Andrade’s anthropophagy – a carefully selected feast from which the poets pick and model their Paideuma. As a case study, we propose to approach and analyze two of Augusto de Campos’s long-term translation projects: the translation of Emily Dickinson’s and E. E. Cummings’s works to Brazilian readers. Augusto de Campos is a renowned poet, translator, critic and one of the founding members of Brazilian Concrete Poetry movement. Since the 1950s he has produced a consistent body of translated poetry from English-speaking poets in which the translator has explored creative translation processes – transcreation, as concrete poets have named it. Campos’s translation project regarding E. E. Cummings’s poetry comprehends a span of forty years: it begins in 1956 with 10 poems and unfolds in 4 works – 20 poem(a)s, 40 poem(a)s, Poem(a)s, re-edited in 2011. His translations of Dickinson’s poetry are published in two works: O Anticrítico (1986), in which he translated 10 poems, and Emily Dickinson Não sou Ninguém (2008), in which the poet-translator added 35 more translated poems. Both projects feature bilingual editions: contrary to common sense, Campos translations aim at being read as such: the target readers, to fully enjoy the experience, must be proficient readers of English and, also, acquainted with the poets in translation – Campos expects us to perform translation criticism, as Antoine Berman has proposed, by assessing the choices he, as both translator and poet, has presented in order to privilege aesthetic information (verse lines, word games, etc.). To readers not proficient in English, his translations play a pedagogycal role of educating and preparing them to read both the target poet works as well as concrete poetry works – the detailed essays and prefaces in which the translator emphasizes the selection of works translated and strategies adopted enlighten his project as translator: for Cummings, it has led to the oblieraton of the more traditional and lyrical/romantic examples of his poetry while highlighting the more experimental aspects and poems; for Dickinson, his project has highligthed the more hermetic traits of her poems. To the domestic canons of both poets in Brazilian literary system, we analyze Campos’ contribution in this work.

Keywords: translation criticism, Augusto de Campos, E. E. Cummings, Emily Dickinson

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Authors: J. Bastos, P. Marques, S. Batterman, F. Freire

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Due to demands of a growing urban population, it is crucial to manage urban development and its associated environmental impacts. While most of the environmental analyses have addressed buildings and transportation separately, both the design and location of a building affect environmental performance and focusing on one or the other can shift impacts and overlook improvement opportunities for more sustainable urban development. Recently, several life-cycle (LC) studies of residential buildings have integrated user transportation, focusing exclusively on primary energy demand and/or greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, most papers considered only private transportation (mainly car). Although it is likely to have the largest share both in terms of use and associated impacts, exploring the variability associated with mode choice is relevant for comprehensive assessments and, eventually, for supporting decision-makers. This paper presents a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of a residential building in Lisbon (Portugal), addressing building construction, use and user transportation (commuting with private and public transportation). Five environmental indicators or categories are considered: (i) non-renewable primary energy (NRE), (ii) greenhouse gas intensity (GHG), (iii) eutrophication (EUT), (iv) acidification (ACID), and (v) ozone layer depletion (OLD). In a first stage, the analysis addresses the overall life-cycle considering the statistical model mix for commuting in the residence location. Then, a comparative analysis compares different available transportation modes to address the influence mode choice variability has on the results. The results highlight the large contribution of transportation to the overall LC results in all categories. NRE and GHG show strong correlation, as the three LC phases contribute with similar shares to both of them: building construction accounts for 6-9%, building use for 44-45%, and user transportation for 48% of the overall results. However, for other impact categories there is a large variation in the relative contribution of each phase. Transport is the most significant phase in OLD (60%); however, in EUT and ACID building use has the largest contribution to the overall LC (55% and 64%, respectively). In these categories, transportation accounts for 31-38%. A comparative analysis was also performed for four alternative transport modes for the household commuting: car, bus, motorcycle, and company/school collective transport. The car has the largest results in all impact categories. When compared to the overall LC with commuting by car, mode choice accounts for a variability of about 35% in NRE, GHG and OLD (the categories where transportation accounted for the largest share of the LC), 24% in EUT and 16% in ACID. NRE and GHG show a strong correlation because all modes have internal combustion engines. The second largest results for NRE, GHG and OLD are associated with commuting by motorcycle; however, for ACID and EUT this mode has better performance than bus and company/school transport. No single transportation mode performed best in all impact categories. Integrated assessments of buildings are needed to avoid shifts of impacts between life-cycle phases and environmental categories, and ultimately to support decision-makers.

Keywords: environmental impacts, LCA, Lisbon, transport

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Authors: B. Mack, K. Tampe-Mai, E. Diesch

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Findings of an ongoing discrete choice study of future transport mode choice will be presented. Many urban centers face the triple challenge of having to cope with ever increasing traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and greenhouse gas emission brought about by private car use. In principle, private car use may be diminished by extending public transport systems like bus lines, trams, tubes, and trains. However, there are limits to increasing the (perceived) spatial and temporal flexibility and reducing peak-time crowding of classical public transport systems. An emerging new type of system, publicly or privately operated on-demand shuttle bus services, seem suitable to ameliorate the situation. A fleet of on-demand shuttle busses operates without fixed stops and schedules. It may be deployed efficiently in that each bus picks up passengers whose itineraries may be combined into an optimized route. Crowding may be minimized by limiting the number of seats and the inter-seat distance for each bus. The study is conducted as a discrete choice experiment. The choice between private car, public transport, and shuttle service is registered as a function of several push and pull factors (financial costs, travel time, walking distances, mobility tax/congestion charge, and waiting time/parking space search time). After the completion of the discrete choice items, the study participant is asked to rate the three modes of transport with regard to the pull factors of comfort, safety, privacy, and opportunity to engage in activities like reading or surfing the internet. These ratings are entered as additional predictors into the discrete choice experiment regression model. The study is conducted in the region of Stuttgart in southern Germany. N=1000 participants are being recruited. Participants are between 18 and 69 years of age, hold a driver’s license, and live in the city or the surrounding region of Stuttgart. In the discrete choice experiment, participants are asked to assume they lived within the Stuttgart region, but outside of the city, and were planning the journey from their apartment to their place of work, training, or education during the peak traffic time in the morning. Then, for each item of the discrete choice experiment, they are asked to choose between the transport modes of private car, public transport, and on-demand shuttle in the light of particular values of the push and pull factors studied. The study will provide valuable information on the potential of switching from private car use to the use of on-demand shuttles, but also on the less desirable potential of switching from public transport to on-demand shuttle services. Furthermore, information will be provided on the modulation of these switching potentials by pull and push factors.

Keywords: determinants of travel mode choice, on-demand shuttle services, private car use, public transport

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Authors: Julio Aguirre, Yohnny Campana, Elmer Guerrero, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

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A well-developed transportation network is a necessary condition for a country to derive full benefits from good trade and macroeconomic policies. Road infrastructure plays a key role in the economic development of rural areas of developing countries; where agriculture is the main economic activity. The ability to move agricultural production from the place of production to the market, and then to the place of consumption, greatly influence the economic value of farming activities, and of the resources involved in the production process, i.e., labor and land. Consequently, investment in transportation networks contributes to enhance or overcome the natural advantages or disadvantages that topography and location have imposed over the agricultural sector. This is of particular importance when dealing with countries, like Peru, with a great topographic diversity. The objective of this research is to estimate the impacts of road infrastructure on the performance of the agricultural sector. Specific variables of interest are changes in travel time, shifts of production for self-consumption to production for the market, changes in farmers income, and impacts on the diversification of the agricultural sector. In the study, a cross-section model with instrumental variables is the central methodological instrument. The data is obtained from agricultural and transport geo-referenced databases, and the instrumental variable specification utilized is based on the Kruskal algorithm. The results show that the expansion of road connectivity reduced farmers' travel time by an average of 3.1 hours and the proportion of output sold in the market increases by up to 40 percentage points. The increase in connectivity has an unexpected increase in the districts index of diversification of agricultural production. The results are robust to the inclusion of year and region fixed-effects, and to control for geography (i.e., slope and altitude), population variables, and mining activity. Other results are also very eloquent. For example, a clear positive impact can be seen in access to local markets, but this does not necessarily correlate with an increase in the production of the sector. This can be explained by the fact that agricultural development not only requires provision of roads but additional complementary infrastructure and investments intended to provide the necessary conditions so that producers can offer quality products (improved management practices, timely maintenance of irrigation infrastructure, transparent management of water rights, among other factors). Therefore, complementary public goods are needed to enhance the effects of roads on the welfare of the population, beyond enabling them to increase their access to markets.

Keywords: agriculture devolepment, market access, road connectivity, regional development

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Authors: Atchara Sankom, Warapa Mahakarnchanakul, Ronnarit Rittiron, Tanaboon Sajjaanantakul, Thammasak Thongket

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Vegetables are frequently contaminated with pesticides residues resulting in the most food safety concern among agricultural products. The objective of this work was to develop a method to detect the organophosphate (OP) pesticides residues in vegetables using Near Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy technique. Low concentration (ppm) of OP pesticides in vegetables were investigated. The experiment was divided into 2 sections. In the first section, Chinese kale spiked with different concentrations of chlorpyrifos pesticide residues (0.5-100 ppm) was chosen as the sample model to demonstrate the appropriate conditions of sample preparation, both for a solution or solid sample. The spiked samples were extracted with acetone. The sample extracts were applied as solution samples, while the solid samples were prepared by the dry-extract system for infrared (DESIR) technique. The DESIR technique was performed by embedding the solution sample on filter paper (GF/A) and then drying. The NIR spectra were measured with the transflectance mode over wavenumber regions of 12,500-4000 cm⁻¹. The QuEChERS method followed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was performed as the standard method. The results from the first section showed that the DESIR technique with NIR spectroscopy demonstrated good accurate calibration result with R² of 0.93 and RMSEP of 8.23 ppm. However, in the case of solution samples, the prediction regarding the NIR-PLSR (partial least squares regression) equation showed poor performance (R² = 0.16 and RMSEP = 23.70 ppm). In the second section, the DESIR technique coupled with NIR spectroscopy was applied to the detection of OP pesticides in vegetables. Vegetables (Chinese kale, cabbage and hot chili) were spiked with OP pesticides (chlorpyrifos ethion and profenofos) at different concentrations ranging from 0.5 to 100 ppm. Solid samples were prepared (based on the DESIR technique), then samples were scanned by NIR spectrophotometer at ambient temperature (25+2°C). The NIR spectra were measured as in the first section. The NIR- PLSR showed the best calibration equation for detecting low concentrations of chlorpyrifos residues in vegetables (Chinese kale, cabbage and hot chili) according to the prediction set of R2 and RMSEP of 0.85-0.93 and 8.23-11.20 ppm, respectively. For ethion residues, the best calibration equation of NIR-PLSR showed good indexes of R² and RMSEP of 0.88-0.94 and 7.68-11.20 ppm, respectively. As well as the results for profenofos pesticide, the NIR-PLSR also showed the best calibration equation for detecting the profenofos residues in vegetables according to the good index of R² and RMSEP of 0.88-0.97 and 5.25-11.00 ppm, respectively. Moreover, the calibration equation developed in this work could rapidly predict the concentrations of OP pesticides residues (0.5-100 ppm) in vegetables, and there was no significant difference between NIR-predicted values and actual values (data from GC-MS) at a confidence interval of 95%. In this work, the proposed method using NIR spectroscopy involving the DESIR technique has proved to be an efficient method for the screening detection of OP pesticides residues at low concentrations, and thus increases the food safety potential of vegetables for domestic and export markets.

Keywords: NIR spectroscopy, organophosphate pesticide, vegetable, food safety

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Authors: M. Venegas, M. De Vega, N. García-Hernando

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Absorption cooling chillers have received growing attention over the past few decades as they allow the use of low-grade heat to produce the cooling effect. The combination of this technology with solar thermal energy in the summer period can reduce the electricity consumption peak due to air-conditioning. One of the main components, the absorber, is designed for simultaneous heat and mass transfer. Usually, shell and tubes heat exchangers are used, which are large and heavy. Cooling water from a cooling tower is conventionally used to extract the heat released during the absorption and condensation processes. These are clear inconvenient for the generalization of the absorption technology use, limiting its benefits in the contribution to the reduction in CO2 emissions, particularly for the H2O-LiBr solution which can work with low heat temperature sources as provided by solar panels. In the present work a promising new technology is under study, consisting in the use of membrane contactors in adiabatic microchannel mass exchangers. The configuration here proposed consists in one or several modules (depending on the cooling capacity of the chiller) that contain two vapour channels, separated from the solution by adjacent microporous membranes. The solution is confined in rectangular microchannels. A plastic or synthetic wall separates the solution channels between them. The solution entering the absorber is previously subcooled using ambient air. In this way, the need for a cooling tower is avoided. A model of the configuration proposed is developed based on mass and energy balances and some correlations were selected to predict the heat and mass transfer coefficients. The concentration and temperatures along the channels cannot be explicitly determined from the set of equations obtained. For this reason, the equations were implemented in a computer code using Engineering Equation Solver software, EES™. With the aim of minimizing the absorber volume to reduce the size of absorption cooling chillers, the ratio between the cooling power of the chiller and the absorber volume (R) is calculated. Its variation is shown along the solution channels, allowing its optimization for selected operating conditions. For the case considered the solution channel length is recommended to be lower than 3 cm. Maximum values of R obtained in this work are higher than the ones found in optimized horizontal falling film absorbers using the same solution. Results obtained also show the variation of R and the chiller efficiency (COP) for different ambient temperatures and desorption temperatures typically obtained using flat plate solar collectors. The configuration proposed of adiabatic membrane-based absorber using ambient air to subcool the solution is a good technology to reduce the size of the absorption chillers, allowing the use of low temperature solar heat and avoiding the need for cooling towers.

Keywords: adiabatic absorption, air-cooled, membrane, solar thermal energy

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Authors: A. Alzahrani, G. Arnold, W. Wang

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Background: Stroke commonly occurs in middle-aged and elderly populations, and the diagnosis of early stroke is still difficult. Patients who have suffered a stroke have different balance and gait patterns from healthy people. Advanced techniques of motion analysis have been routinely used in the clinical assessment of cerebral palsy. However, so far, little research has been done on the direct diagnosis of early stroke patients using motion analysis. Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate whether patients with stroke have different balance and gait from healthy people and which biomechanical parameters could be used to predict and diagnose potential patients who are at a potential risk to stroke. Methods: Thirteen patients with stroke were recruited as subjects whose gait and balance was analysed. Twenty normal subjects at the matched age participated in this study as a control group. All subjects’ gait and balance were collected using Vicon Nexus® to obtain the gait parameters, kinetic, and kinematic parameters of the hip, knee, and ankle joints in three planes of both limbs. Participants stood on force platforms to perform a single leg balance test. Then, they were asked to walk along a 10 m walkway at their comfortable speed. Participants performed 6 trials of single-leg balance for each side and 10 trials of walking. From the recorded trials, three good ones were analysed using the Vicon Plug-in-Gait model to obtain gait parameters, e.g., walking speed, cadence, stride length, and joint parameters, e.g., joint angle, force, moments, etc. Result: The temporal-spatial variables of Stroke subjects were compared with the healthy subjects; it was found that there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) between the groups. The step length, speed, cadence were lower in stroke subjects as compared to the healthy groups. The stroke patients group showed significantly decreased in gait speed (mean and SD: 0.85 ± 0.33 m/s), cadence ( 96.71 ± 16.14 step/min), and step length (0.509 ± 017 m) in compared to healthy people group whereas the gait speed was 1.2 ± 0.11 m/s, cadence 112 ± 8.33 step/min, and step length 0.648 ± 0.43 m. Moreover, it was observed that patients with stroke have significant differences in the ankle, hip, and knee joints’ kinematics in the sagittal and coronal planes. Also, the result showed that there was a significant difference between groups in the single-leg balance test, e.g., maintaining single-leg stance time in the stroke patients showed shorter duration (5.97 ± 6.36 s) in compared to healthy people group (14.36 ± 10.20 s). Conclusion: Our result showed that there are significantly differences between stroke patients and healthy subjects in the various aspects of gait analysis and balance test, as a consequences of these findings some of the biomechanical parameters such as joints kinematics, gait parameters, and single-leg stance balance test could be used in clinical practice to predict and diagnose potential patients who are at a high risk of further stroke.

Keywords: gait analysis, kinetics, kinematics, single-leg stance, Stroke

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors and metabolic syndrome (MetS). In this study, associations between adipokines and adipokine as well as obesity indices were evaluated. Plasma adipokine levels may exhibit variations according to body adipose tissue mass. Besides, upon consideration of obesity as an inflammatory disease, adipokines may play some roles in this process. The ratios of proinflammatory adipokines to adiponectin may act as highly sensitive indicators of body adipokine status. The aim of the study is to present some adipokine indices, which are thought to be helpful for the evaluation of childhood obesity and also to determine the best discriminators in the diagnosis of MetS. 80 prepubertal children (aged between 6-9.5 years) included in the study were divided into three groups; 30 children with normal weight (NW), 25 morbid obese (MO) children and 25 MO children with MetS. Physical examinations were performed. Written informed consent forms were obtained from the parents. The study protocol was approved by Ethics Committee of Namik Kemal University Medical Faculty. Anthropometric measurements, such as weight, height, waist circumference (C), hip C, head C, neck C were recorded. Values for body mass index (BMI), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment Index-II (D2 index) as well as waist-to-hip, head-to-neck ratios were calculated. Adiponectin, resistin, leptin, chemerin, vaspin, progranulin assays were performed by ELISA. Adipokine-to-adiponectin ratios were obtained. SPSS Version 20 was used for the evaluation of data. p values ≤ 0.05 were accepted as statistically significant. Values of BMI and D2 index, waist-to-hip, head-to-neck ratios did not differ between MO and MetS groups (p ≥ 0.05). Except progranulin (p ≤ 0.01), similar patterns were observed for plasma levels of each adipokine. There was not any difference in vaspin as well as resistin levels between NW and MO groups. Significantly increased leptin-to-adiponectin, chemerin-to-adiponectin and vaspin-to-adiponectin values were noted in MO in comparison with those of NW. The most valuable adipokine index was progranulin-to-adiponectin (p ≤ 0.01). This index was strongly correlated with vaspin-to-adiponectin ratio in all groups (p ≤ 0.05). There was no correlation between vaspin-to-adiponectin and chemerin-to--adiponectin in NW group. However, a correlation existed in MO group (r = 0.486; p ≤ 0.05). Much stronger correlation (r = 0.609; p ≤ 0.01) was observed in MetS group between these two adipokine indices. No correlations were detected between vaspin and progranulin as well as vaspin and chemerin levels. Correlation analyses showed a unique profile confined to MetS children. Adiponectin was found to be correlated with waist-to-hip (r = -0.435; p ≤ 0.05) as well as head-to-neck (r = 0.541; p ≤ 0.05) ratios only in MetS children. In this study, it has been investigated if adipokine indices have priority over adipokine levels. In conclusion, vaspin-to-adiponectin, progranulin-to-adiponectin, chemerin-to-adiponectin along with waist-to-hip and head-to-neck ratios were the optimal combinations. Adiponectin, waist-to-hip, head-to-neck, vaspin-to-adiponectin, chemerin-to-adiponectin ratios had appropriate discriminatory capability for MetS children.

Keywords: adipokine indices, metabolic syndrome, obesity indices, pediatric obesity

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Authors: Rune Bjerke

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Psychologists incline to see creativity as a mental and psychological process. However, creativity is as well results of cultural and social interactions. Therefore, creativity is not a product of individuals in isolation, but of social systems. Creative people get ideas from the influence of others and the immediate cultural environment – a space of knowledge, situations, and practices. Therefore, in this study we apply the systems theory in practice to activate creativity processes in the production of our novel and screenplay writing. We, as storytellers actively seek to get into situations in our everyday lives, our systems, to generate ideas. Within our personal systems, we have the potential to induce situations to realise ideas to our texts, which may be accepted by our gate-keepers and can become socially validated. This is our method of writing – get into situations, get ideas to texts, and test them with family and friends in our social systems. Example of novel text as an outcome of our method is as follows: “Is it a matter of obviousness or had I read it somewhere, that the one who increases his knowledge increases his pain? And also, the other way around, with increased pain, knowledge increases, I thought. Perhaps such a chain of effects explains why the rebel August Strindberg wrote seven plays in ten months after the divorce with Siri von Essen. Shortly after, he tried painting. Neither the seven theatre plays were shown, nor the paintings were exhibited. I was standing in front of Munch's painting Women in Three Stages with chaotic mental images of myself crumpled in a church and a laughing x-girlfriend watching my suffering. My stomach was turning at unpredictable intervals and the subsequent vomiting almost suffocated me. Love grief at the worst. Was it this pain Strindberg felt? Despite the failure of his first plays, the pain must have triggered a form of creative energy that turned pain into ideas. Suffering, thoughts, feelings, words, text, and then, the reader experience. Maybe this negative force can be transformed into something positive, I asked myself. The question eased my pain. At that moment, I forgot the damp, humid air in the Munch Museum. Is it the similar type of Strindberg-pain that could explain the recurring, depressive themes in Munch's paintings? Illness, death, love and jealousy. As a beginning art student at the master's level, I had decided to find the answer. Was it the same with Munch's pain, as with Strindberg - a woman behind? There had to be women in the case of Munch - therefore, the painting “Women in Three Stages”? Who are they, what personality types are they – the women in red, black and white dresses from left to the right?” We, the writers, are using persons, situations and elements in our systems, in a systems theory perspective, to prompt creative ideas. A conceptual model is provided to advance creativity theory.

Keywords: creativity theory, systems theory, novel writing, screenplay writing, sources of creativity in social systems

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Authors: Maria Fontenele, Claude-Gilles Dussap, Vincent Dumouilla, Baptiste Boit

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Roquette Frères is a producer of plant-based ingredients that employs many processes to extract relevant molecules and often transforms them through chemical and physical processes to create desired ingredients with specific functionalities. In this context, Roquette encounters numerous multi-component complex systems in their processes, including fibers, proteins, and carbohydrates, in an aqueous environment. To develop, control, and optimize both new and old processes, Roquette aims to develop new in silico tools. Currently, Roquette uses process modelling tools which include specific thermodynamic models and is willing to develop computational methodologies such as molecular dynamics simulations to gain insights into the complex interactions in such complex media, and especially hydrogen bonding interactions. The issue at hand concerns aqueous mixtures of polyols with high dry matter content. The polyols mannitol and sorbitol molecules are diastereoisomers that have nearly identical chemical structures but very different physicochemical properties: for example, the solubility of sorbitol in water is 2.5 kg/kg of water, while mannitol has a solubility of 0.25 kg/kg of water at 25°C. Therefore, predicting liquid-solid equilibrium properties in this case requires sophisticated solution models that cannot be based solely on chemical group contributions, knowing that for mannitol and sorbitol, the chemical constitutive groups are the same. Recognizing the significance of solvation phenomena in polyols, the GePEB (Chemical Engineering, Applied Thermodynamics, and Biosystems) team at Institut Pascal has developed the COSMO-UCA model, which has the structural advantage of using quantum mechanics tools to predict formation and phase equilibrium properties. In this work, we use molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the behavior of polyols in aqueous solution. Specifically, we employ simulations to compute essential metrics such as radial distribution functions and hydrogen bond autocorrelation functions. Our findings illuminate a fundamental contrast: sorbitol and mannitol exhibit disparate hydrogen bond lifetimes within aqueous environments. This observation serves as a cornerstone in elucidating the divergent physicochemical properties inherent to each compound, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between their molecular structures and water interactions. We also present a methodology to predict the physicochemical properties of complex solutions, taking as sole input the three-dimensional structure of the molecules in the medium. Finally, by developing knowledge models, we represent some physicochemical properties of aqueous solutions of sorbitol and mannitol.

Keywords: COSMO models, hydrogen bond, molecular dynamics, thermodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: H. E. Elzain, S. Y. Chung, V. Senapathi, Kye-Hun Park

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Groundwater is considered a significant source for drinking and irrigation purposes in Miryang city, and it is attributed to a limited number of a surface water reservoirs and high seasonal variations in precipitation. Population growth in addition to the expansion of agricultural land uses and industrial development may affect the quality and management of groundwater. This research utilized multidisciplinary approaches of geostatistics such as multivariate statistics, factor analysis, cluster analysis and kriging technique in order to identify the hydrogeochemical process and characterizing the control factors of the groundwater geochemistry distribution for developing risk maps, exploiting data obtained from chemical investigation of groundwater samples under the area of study. A total of 79 samples have been collected and analyzed using atomic absorption spectrometer (AAS) for major and trace elements. Chemical maps using 2-D spatial Geographic Information System (GIS) of groundwater provided a powerful tool for detecting the possible potential sites of groundwater that involve the threat of contamination. GIS computer based map exhibited that the higher rate of contamination observed in the central and southern area with relatively less extent in the northern and southwestern parts. It could be attributed to the effect of irrigation, residual saline water, municipal sewage and livestock wastes. At wells elevation over than 85m, the scatter diagram represents that the groundwater of the research area was mainly influenced by saline water and NO3. Level of pH measurement revealed low acidic condition due to dissolved atmospheric CO2 in the soil, while the saline water had a major impact on the higher values of TDS and EC. Based on the cluster analysis results, the groundwater has been categorized into three group includes the CaHCO3 type of the fresh water, NaHCO3 type slightly influenced by sea water and Ca-Cl, Na-Cl types which are heavily affected by saline water. The most predominant water type was CaHCO3 in the study area. Contamination sources and chemical characteristics were identified from factor analysis interrelationship and cluster analysis. The chemical elements that belong to factor 1 analysis were related to the effect of sea water while the elements of factor 2 associated with agricultural fertilizers. The degree level, distribution, and location of groundwater contamination have been generated by using Kriging methods. Thus, geostatistics model provided more accurate results for identifying the source of contamination and evaluating the groundwater quality. GIS was also a creative tool to visualize and analyze the issues affecting water quality in the Miryang city.

Keywords: groundwater characteristics, GIS chemical maps, factor analysis, cluster analysis, Kriging techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: M. Mashiur Rahman, Ulrik Birk Henriksen, Jesper Ahrenfeldt, Maria Puig Arnavat

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Using biomass gasification to make producer gas is one of the promising sustainable energy options available for small scale plant and rural applications for power and electricity. Tar content in producer gas is the main problem if it is used directly as a fuel. A low-tar biomass (LTB) gasifier of approximately 30 kW capacity has been developed to solve this. Moving bed gasifier with internal recirculation of pyrolysis gas has been the basic principle of the LTB gasifier. The gasifier focuses on the concept of mixing the pyrolysis gases with gasifying air and burning the mixture in separate combustion chamber. Five tests were carried out with the use of wood pellets and wood chips separately, with moisture content of 9-34%. The LTB gasifier offers excellent opportunities for handling extremely low-tar in the producer gas. The gasifiers producer gas had an extremely low tar content of 21.2 mg/Nm³ (avg.) and an average lower heating value (LHV) of 4.69 MJ/Nm³. Tar content found in different tests in the ranges of 10.6-29.8 mg/Nm³. This low tar content makes the producer gas suitable for direct use in internal combustion engine. Using mass and energy balances, the average gasifier capacity and cold gas efficiency (CGE) observed 23.1 kW and 82.7% for wood chips, and 33.1 kW and 60.5% for wood pellets, respectively. Average heat loss in term of higher heating value (HHV) observed 3.2% of thermal input for wood chips and 1% for wood pellets, where heat loss was found 1% of thermal input in term of enthalpy. Thus, the LTB gasifier performs better compared to typical gasifiers in term of heat loss. Equivalence ratio (ER) in the range of 0.29 to 0.41 gives better performance in terms of heating value and CGE. The specific gas production yields at the above ER range were in the range of 2.1-3.2 Nm³/kg. Heating value and CGE changes proportionally with the producer gas yield. The average gas compositions (H₂-19%, CO-19%, CO₂-10%, CH₄-0.7% and N₂-51%) obtained for wood chips are higher than the typical producer gas composition. Again, the temperature profile of the LTB gasifier observed relatively low temperature compared to typical moving bed gasifier. The average partial oxidation zone temperature of 970°C observed for wood chips. The use of separate combustor in the partial oxidation zone substantially lowers the bed temperature to 750°C. During the test, the engine was started and operated completely with the producer gas. The engine operated well on the produced gas, and no deposits were observed in the engine afterwards. Part of the producer gas flow was used for engine operation, and corresponding electrical power was found to be 1.5 kW continuously, and maximum power of 2.5 kW was also observed, while maximum generator capacity is 3 kW. A thermodynamic equilibrium model is good agreement with the experimental results and correctly predicts the equilibrium bed temperature, gas composition, LHV of the producer gas and ER with the experimental data, when the heat loss of 4% of the energy input is considered.

Keywords: biomass gasification, low-tar biomass gasifier, tar elimination, engine, deposits, condensate

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: L. García, N. Cobas, M. López

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Acrylamide, a probable carcinogen, is formed in high-temperature processed food (>120ºC) when the free amino acid asparagine reacts with reducing sugars, mainly glucose and fructose. Cane juices' repeated heating would potentially form acrylamide during brown sugar production. This study aims to determine if using panela in yogurt cake preparation increases acrylamide formation. A secondary aim is to analyze the acrylamide concentration in four cake confections with different caloric sweetener ingredients: beet sugar (BS), cane sugar (CS), panela (P), and a panela and chocolate mix (PC). The doughs were obtained by combining ingredients in a planetary mixer. A model system made up of flour (25%), caloric sweeteners (25 %), eggs (23%), yogurt (15.7%), sunflower oil (9.4%), and brewer's yeast (2 %) was applied to BS, CS and P cakes. The ingredients of PC cakes varied: flour (21.5 %), panela chocolate (21.5 %), eggs (25.9 %), yogurt (18 %), sunflower oil (10.8 %), and brewer’s yeast (2.3 %). The preparations were baked for 45' at 180 ºC. Moisture was estimated by AOAC. Protein was determined by the Kjeldahl method. Ash percentage was calculated by weight loss after pyrolysis (≈ 600 °C). Fat content was measured using liquid-solid extraction in hydrolyzed raw ingredients and final confections. Carbohydrates were determined by difference and total sugars by the Luff-Schoorl method, based on the iodometric determination of copper ions. Finally, acrylamide content was determined by LC-MS by the isocratic system (phase A: 97.5 % water with 0.1% formic acid; phase B: 2.5 % methanol), using a standard internal procedure. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS v.23. One-way variance analysis determined differences between acrylamide content and compositional analysis, with caloric sweeteners as fixed effect. Significance levels were determined by applying Duncan's t-test (p<0.05). P cakes showed a lower energy value than the other baked products; sugar content was similar to BS and CS, with 6.1 % mean crude protein. Acrylamide content in caloric sweeteners was similar to previously reported values. However, P and PC showed significantly higher concentrations, probably explained by the applied procedure. Acrylamide formation depends on both reducing sugars and asparagine concentration and availability. Beet sugar samples did not present acrylamide concentrations within the detection and quantification limit. However, the highest acrylamide content was measured in the BS. This may be due to the higher concentration of reducing sugars and asparagine in other raw ingredients. The cakes made with panela, cane sugar, or panela with chocolate did not differ in acrylamide content. The lack of asparagine measures constitutes a limitation. Cakes made with panela showed lower acrylamide formation than products elaborated with beet or cane sugar.

Keywords: beet sugar, cane sugar, panela, yogurt cake

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Ming-Chien Su, Yi-Zih Chen, Nien-Hsin Kao, Hideaki Shibata

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The major component of the atmosphere is nitrogen, yet atmospheric nitrogen has limited availability for biological use. Human activities have produced different types of nitrogen related compounds such as nitrogen oxides from combustion, nitrogen fertilizers from farming, and the nitrogen compounds from waste and wastewater, all of which have impacted the environment. Many studies have indicated the N-footprint is dominated by food, followed by housing, transportation, and goods and services sectors. To solve the impact issues from agricultural land, nitrogen cycle research is one of the key solutions. The study site is located in Hualien County, Taiwan, a major rice and food production area of Taiwan. Importantly, environmentally friendly farming has been promoted for years, and an environmental indicator system has been established by previous authors based on the concept of resilience capacity index (RCI) and environmental performance index (EPI). Nitrogen management is required for food production, as excess N causes environmental pollution. Therefore it is very important to develop a roadmap of the nitrogen footprint, and to integrate it with environmental indicators. The key focus of the study thus addresses (1) understanding the environmental impact caused by the nitrogen cycle of food products and (2) uncovering the trend of the N-footprint of agricultural products in Hualien, Taiwan. The N-footprint model was applied, which included both crops and energy consumption in the area. All data were adapted from government statistics databases and crosschecked for consistency before modeling. The actions involved with agricultural production were evaluated and analyzed for nitrogen loss to the environment, as well as measuring the impacts to humans and the environment. The results showed that rice makes up the largest share of agricultural production by weight, at 80%. The dominant meat production is pork (52%) and poultry (40%); fish and seafood were at similar levels to pork production. The average per capita food consumption in Taiwan is 2643.38 kcal capita−1 d−1, primarily from rice (430.58 kcal), meats (184.93 kcal) and wheat (ca. 356.44 kcal). The average protein uptake is 87.34 g capita−1 d−1, and 51% is mainly from meat, milk, and eggs. The preliminary results showed that the nitrogen footprint of food production is 34 kg N per capita per year, congruent with the results of Shibata et al. (2014) for Japan. These results provide a better understanding of the nitrogen demand and loss in the environment, and the roadmap can furthermore support the establishment of nitrogen policy and strategy. Additionally, the results serve to develop a roadmap of the nitrogen cycle of an environmentally friendly farming area, thus illuminating the nitrogen demand and loss of such areas.

Keywords: agriculture productions, energy consumption, environmental indicator, nitrogen footprint

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Mustafa Malki, Ewan R. Pearson

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Tools utilized by health care practitioners to flag potential adverse drug reactions secondary to drug-drug interactions ignore individual genetic variation, which has the potential to markedly alter the severity of these interactions. To our best knowledge, there have been limited published studies on the impact of genetic variation on drug-drug interactions. Therefore, our aim in this project is the discovery of previously unrecognized, clinically important drug-drug-gene interactions (DDGIs) within the list of most commonly used drug combinations in the UK. The UKBB database was utilized to identify the top most frequently prescribed drug combinations in the UK with at least one route of interaction (over than 200 combinations were identified). We have recognised 37 common and unique interacting genes considering all of our drug combinations. Out of around 600 potential genetic variants found in these 37 genes, 100 variants have met the selection criteria (common variant with minor allele frequency ≥ 5%, independence, and has passed HWE test). The association between these variants and the use of each of our top drug combinations has been tested with a case-control analysis under the log-additive model. As the data is cross-sectional, drug intolerance has been identified from the genotype distribution as presented by the lower percentage of patients carrying the risky allele and on the drug combination compared to those free of these risk factors and vice versa with drug tolerance. In GoDARTs database, the same list of common drug combinations identified by the UKBB was utilized here with the same list of candidate genetic variants but with the addition of 14 new SNPs so that we have a total of 114 variants which have met the selection criteria in GoDARTs. From the list of the top 200 drug combinations, we have selected 28 combinations where the two drugs in each combination are known to be used chronically. For each of our 28 combinations, three drug response phenotypes have been identified (drug stop/switch, dose decrease, or dose increase of any of the two drugs during their interaction). The association between each of the three phenotypes belonging to each of our 28 drug combinations has been tested against our 114 candidate genetic variants. The results show replication of four findings between both databases : (1) Omeprazole +Amitriptyline +rs2246709 (A > G) variant in CYP3A4 gene (p-values and ORs with the UKBB and GoDARTs respectively = 0.048,0.037,0.92,and 0.52 (dose increase phenotype)) (2) Simvastatin + Ranitidine + rs9332197 (T > C) variant in CYP2C9 gene (0.024,0.032,0.81, and 5.75 (drug stop/switch phenotype)) (3) Atorvastatin + Doxazosin + rs9282564 (T > C) variant in ABCB1 gene (0.0015,0.0095,1.58,and 3.14 (drug stop/switch phenotype)) (4) Simvastatin + Nifedipine + rs2257401 (C > G) variant in CYP3A7 gene (0.025,0.019,0.77,and 0.30 (drug stop/switch phenotype)). In addition, some other non-replicated, but interesting, significant findings were detected. Our work also provides a great source of information for researchers interested in DD, DG, or DDG interactions studies as it has highlighted the top common drug combinations in the UK with recognizing 114 significant genetic variants related to drugs' pharmacokinetic.

Keywords: adverse drug reactions, common drug combinations, drug-drug-gene interactions, pharmacogenomics

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Elsher Lawson-Boyd

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In the wake of the Human Genome Project, the life sciences have undergone some fascinating changes. In particular, conventional beliefs relating to gene expression are being challenged by advances in postgenomic sciences, especially by the field of epigenetics. Epigenetics is the modification of gene expression without changes in the DNA sequence. In other words, epigenetics dictates that gene expression, the process by which the instructions in DNA are converted into products like proteins, is not solely controlled by DNA itself. Unlike gene-centric theories of heredity that characterized much of the 20th Century (where the genes were considered as having almost god-like power to create life), gene expression in epigenetics insists on environmental ‘signals’ or ‘exposures’, a point that radically deviates from gene-centric thinking. Science and Technology Studies (STS) scholars have shown that epigenetic research is having vast implications for the ways in which chronic, non-communicable diseases are conceptualized, treated, and governed. However, to the author’s knowledge, there have not yet been any in-depth sociological engagements with neuroepigenetics that examine how the field is affecting mental health and trauma discourse. In this paper, the author discusses preliminary findings from a doctoral ethnographic study on neuroepigenetics, trauma, and embodiment. Specifically, this study investigates the kinds of causal relations neuroepigenetic researchers are making between experiences of trauma and the development of mental illnesses like complex post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), both throughout a human’s lifetime and across generations. Using qualitative interviews and nonparticipant observation, the author focuses on two public-facing research centers based in Melbourne: Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health (FNMH), and Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI). Preliminary findings indicate that a great deal of ambiguity characterizes this infant field, particularly when animal-model experiments are employed and the results are translated into human frameworks. Nevertheless, researchers at the FNMH and MCRI strongly suggest that adverse and traumatic life events have a significant effect on gene expression, especially when experienced during early development. Furthermore, they predict that neuroepigenetic research will have substantial implications for the ways in which mental illnesses like complex PTSD are diagnosed and treated. These preliminary findings shed light on why medical and health sociologists have good reason to be chiming in, engaging with and de-black-boxing ideations emerging from postgenomic sciences, as they may indeed have significant effects for vulnerable populations not only in Australia but other developing countries in the Global South.

Keywords: genetics, mental illness, neuroepigenetics, trauma

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Eugene C. Lim

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This paper seeks to examine the extent to which ‘forum shopping’ is available to patent filers seeking protection of GMO (genetically modified organisms)-based inventions in Hong Kong. Under Hong Kong’s current re-registration system for standard patents, an inventor must first seek patent protection from one of three Designated Patent Offices (DPO) – those of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Europe Union (EU) (designating the UK), or the United Kingdom (UK). The ‘designated patent’ can then be re-registered by the successful patentee in Hong Kong. Interestingly, however, the EU and the PRC do not adopt a harmonized approach toward the patenting of GMOs, and there are discrepancies in their interpretation of the phrase ‘animal or plant variety’. In view of these divergences, the ability to effectively manage ‘conflict of law’ issues is an important priority for multinational biotechnology firms with a patent portfolio in the Greater China region. Generally speaking, both the EU and the PRC exclude ‘animal and plant varieties’ from the scope of patentable subject matter. However, in the EU, Article 4(2) of the Biotechnology Directive allows a genetically modified plant or animal to be patented if its ‘technical feasibility is not limited to a specific variety’. This principle has allowed for certain ‘transgenic’ mammals, such as the ‘Harvard Oncomouse’, to be the subject of a successful patent grant in the EU. There is no corresponding provision on ‘technical feasibility’ in the patent legislation of the PRC. Although the PRC has a sui generis system for protecting plant varieties, its patent legislation allows the patenting of non-biological methods for producing transgenic organisms, not the ‘organisms’ themselves. This might lead to a situation where an inventor can obtain patent protection in Hong Kong over transgenic life forms through the re-registration of a patent from a more ‘biotech-friendly’ DPO, even though the subject matter in question might not be patentable per se in the PRC. Through a comparative doctrinal analysis of legislative provisions, cases and court interpretations, this paper argues that differences in the protection afforded to GMOs do not generally prejudice the ability of global MNCs to obtain patent protection in Hong Kong. Corporations which are able to first obtain patents for GMO-based inventions in Europe can generally use their European patent as the basis for re-registration in Hong Kong, even if such protection might not be available in the PRC itself. However, the more restrictive approach to GMO-based patents adopted in the PRC would be more acutely felt by enterprises and inventors based in mainland China. The broader scope of protection offered to GMO-based patents in Europe might not be available in Hong Kong to mainland Chinese patentees under the current re-registration model for standard patents, unless they have the resources to apply for patent protection as well from another (European) DPO as the basis for re-registration.

Keywords: biotechnology, forum shopping, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), greater China region, patent portfolio

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Peter Carter

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Comprehensive climate change indicators and trends inform the state of the climate (system) with respect to present and future climate change scenarios and the urgency of mitigation and adaptation. With data records now going back for many decades, indicator trends can complement model projections. They are provided as datasets by several climate monitoring centers, reviewed by state of the climate reports, and documented by the IPCC assessments. Up-to-date indicators are provided here. Rates of change are instructive, as are extremes. The indicators include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (natural and synthetic), cumulative CO2 emissions, atmospheric GHG concentrations (including CO2 equivalent), stratospheric ozone, surface ozone, radiative forcing, global average temperature increase, land temperature increase, zonal temperature increases, carbon sinks, soil moisture, sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, ocean acidification, ocean oxygen, glacier mass, Arctic temperature, Arctic sea ice (extent and volume), northern hemisphere snow cover, permafrost indices, Arctic GHG emissions, ice sheet mass, sea level rise, and stratospheric and surface ozone. Global warming is not the most reliable single metric for the climate state. Radiative forcing, atmospheric CO2 equivalent, and ocean heat content are more reliable. Global warming does not provide future commitment, whereas atmospheric CO2 equivalent does. Cumulative carbon is used for estimating carbon budgets. The forcing of aerosols is briefly addressed. Indicator interactions are included. In particular, indicators can provide insight into several crucial global warming amplifying feedback loops, which are explained. All indicators are increasing (adversely), most as fast as ever and some faster. One particularly pressing indicator is rapidly increasing global atmospheric methane. In this respect, methane emissions and sources are covered in more detail. In their application, indicators used in assessing safe planetary boundaries are included. Indicators are considered with respect to recent published papers on possible catastrophic climate change and climate system tipping thresholds. They are climate-change-policy relevant. In particular, relevant policies include the 2015 Paris Agreement on “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” and the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate change, which has “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

Keywords: climate change, climate change indicators, climate change trends, climate system change interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Walter Sebron, Hans Tschürtz, Peter Krebs

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The choice of applicable analysis methods in safety or systems engineering depends on the depth of knowledge about a system, and on the respective lifecycle phase. However, the analysis method chain still shows gaps as it should support system analysis during the lifecycle of a system from a rough concept in pre-project phase until end-of-life. This paper’s goal is to discuss an analysis method, the VISSE Shell Model Analysis (VISMA) method, which aims at closing the gap in the early system lifecycle phases, like the conceptual or pre-project phase, or the project start phase. It was originally developed to aid in the definition of the system boundary of electronic system parts, like e.g. a control unit for a pump motor. Furthermore, it can be also applied to non-electronic system parts. The VISMA method is a graphical sketch-like method that stratifies a system and its parts in inner and outer shells, like the layers of an onion. It analyses a system in a two-step approach, from the innermost to the outermost components followed by the reverse direction. To ensure a complete view of a system and its environment, the VISMA should be performed by (multifunctional) development teams. To introduce the method, a set of rules and guidelines has been defined in order to enable a proper shell build-up. In the first step, the innermost system, named system under consideration (SUC), is selected, which is the focus of the subsequent analysis. Then, its directly adjacent components, responsible for providing input to and receiving output from the SUC, are identified. These components are the content of the first shell around the SUC. Next, the input and output components to the components in the first shell are identified and form the second shell around the first one. Continuing this way, shell by shell is added with its respective parts until the border of the complete system (external border) is reached. Last, two external shells are added to complete the system view, the environment and the use case shell. This system view is also stored for future use. In the second step, the shells are examined in the reverse direction (outside to inside) in order to remove superfluous components or subsystems. Input chains to the SUC, as well as output chains from the SUC are described graphically via arrows, to highlight functional chains through the system. As a result, this method offers a clear and graphical description and overview of a system, its main parts and environment; however, the focus still remains on a specific SUC. It helps to identify the interfaces and interfacing components of the SUC, as well as important external interfaces of the overall system. It supports the identification of the first internal and external hazard causes and causal chains. Additionally, the method promotes a holistic picture and cross-functional understanding of a system, its contributing parts, internal relationships and possible dangers within a multidisciplinary development team.

Keywords: analysis methods, functional safety, hazard identification, system and safety engineering, system boundary definition, system safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Klaus Froehlich-Gildhoff, Ullrich Boettinger, Katharina Rauh, Angela Schickler

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The Prevention Network Ortenaukreis, PNO, funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research, aims to promote physical and mental health as well as the social inclusion of 3 to 10 years old children and their families in the Ortenau district. Within a period of four years starting 11/2014 a community network will be established. One regional and five local prevention representatives are building networks with stakeholders of the prevention and health promotion field bridging the health care, educational and youth welfare system in a multidisciplinary approach. The regional prevention representative implements regularly convening prevention and health conferences. On a local level, the 5 local prevention representatives implement round tables in each area as a platform for networking. In the setting approach, educational institutions are playing a vital role when gaining access to children and their families. Thus the project will offer 18 month long organizational development processes with specially trained coaches to 25 kindergarten and 25 primary schools. The process is based on a curriculum of prevention and health promotion which is adapted to the specific needs of the institutions. Also to ensure that the entire region is reached demand oriented advanced education courses are implemented at participating day care centers, kindergartens and schools. Evaluation method: The project is accompanied by an extensive research design to evaluate the outcomes of different project components such as interview data from community prevention agents, interviews and network analysis with families at risk on their support structures, data on community network development and monitoring, as well as data from kindergarten and primary schools. The latter features a waiting-list control group evaluation in kindergarten and primary schools with a mixed methods design using questionnaires and interviews with pedagogues, teachers, parents, and children. Results: By the time of the conference pre and post test data from the kindergarten samples (treatment and control group) will be presented, as well as data from the first project phase, such as qualitative interviews with the prevention coordinators as well as mixed methods data from the community needs assessment. In supporting this project, the Federal Ministry aims to gain insight into efficient components of community prevention and health promotion networks as it is implemented and evaluated. The district will serve as a model region, so that successful components can be transferred to other regions throughout Germany. Accordingly, the transferability to other regions is of high interest in this project.

Keywords: childhood research, health promotion, physical health, prevention network, psychological well-being, social inclusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: A. Alyaaria, b, J. P. Wignerona, A. Ducharneb, Y. Kerrc, P. de Rosnayd, R. de Jeue, A. Govinda, A. Al Bitarc, C. Albergeld, J. Sabaterd, C. Moisya, P. Richaumec, A. Mialonc

Abstract:

Global Level-3 surface soil moisture (SSM) maps from the passive microwave soil moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOSL3) have been released. To further improve the Level-3 retrieval algorithm, evaluation of the accuracy of the spatio-temporal variability of the SMOS Level 3 products (referred to here as SMOSL3) is necessary. In this study, a comparative analysis of SMOSL3 with a SSM product derived from the observations of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) computed by implementing the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) algorithm, referred to here as AMSRM, is presented. The comparison of both products (SMSL3 and AMSRM) were made against SSM products produced by a numerical weather prediction system (SM-DAS-2) at ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) for the 03/2010-09/2011 period at global scale. The latter product was considered here a 'reference' product for the inter-comparison of the SMOSL3 and AMSRM products. Three statistical criteria were used for the evaluation, the correlation coefficient (R), the root-mean-squared difference (RMSD), and the bias. Global maps of these criteria were computed, taking into account vegetation information in terms of biome types and Leaf Area Index (LAI). We found that both the SMOSL3 and AMSRM products captured well the spatio-temporal variability of the SM-DAS-2 SSM products in most of the biomes. In general, the AMSRM products overestimated (i.e., wet bias) while the SMOSL3 products underestimated (i.e., dry bias) SSM in comparison to the SM-DAS-2 SSM products. In term of correlation values, the SMOSL3 products were found to better capture the SSM temporal dynamics in highly vegetated biomes ('Tropical humid', 'Temperate Humid', etc.) while best results for AMSRM were obtained over arid and semi-arid biomes ('Desert temperate', 'Desert tropical', etc.). When removing the seasonal cycles in the SSM time variations to compute anomaly values, better correlation with the SM-DAS-2 SSM anomalies were obtained with SMOSL3 than with AMSRM, in most of the biomes with the exception of desert regions. Eventually, we showed that the accuracy of the remotely sensed SSM products is strongly related to LAI. Both the SMOSL3 and AMSRM (slightly better) SSM products correlate well with the SM-DAS2 products over regions with sparse vegetation for values of LAI < 1 (these regions represent almost 50% of the pixels considered in this global study). In regions where LAI>1, SMOSL3 outperformed AMSRM with respect to SM-DAS-2: SMOSL3 had almost consistent performances up to LAI = 6, whereas AMSRM performance deteriorated rapidly with increasing values of LAI.

Keywords: remote sensing, microwave, soil moisture, AMSR-E, SMOS

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Sharmeen Rahman, Daniel Schmidt, Jane Hughes

Abstract:

Paratya australiensis Kemp (Decapoda: Atyidae) is a widely distributed indigenous freshwater shrimp, highly abundant in eastern Australia. This species has been considered as a model stream organism to study genetics, dispersal, biology, behaviour and evolution in Atyids. Paratya has a filter feeding and scavenging habit which plays a significant role in the formation of lotic community structure. It has been shown to reduce periphyton and sediment from hard substrates of coastal streams and hence acts as a strongly-interacting ecosystem macroconsumer. Besides, Paratya is one of the major food sources for stream dwelling fishes. Paratya australiensis is a cryptic species complex consisting of 9 highly divergent mitochondrial DNA lineages. Among them, one lineage has been observed to favour upstream sites at higher altitudes, with cooler water temperatures. This study aims to identify local adaptation in upstream and downstream populations of this lineage in three streams in the Conondale Range, North-eastern Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Two populations (up and down stream) from each stream have been chosen to test for local adaptation, and a parallel pattern of adaptation is expected across all streams. Six populations each consisting of 24 individuals were sequenced using the Restriction Site Associated DNA-seq (RAD-seq) technique. Genetic markers (SNPs) were developed using double digest RAD sequencing (ddRAD-seq). These were used for de novo assembly of Paratya genome. De novo assembly was done using the STACKs program and produced 56, 344 loci for 47 individuals from one stream. Among these individuals, 39 individuals shared 5819 loci, and these markers are being used to test for local adaptation using Fst outlier tests (Arlequin) and Bayesian analysis (BayeScan) between up and downstream populations. Fst outlier test detected 27 loci likely to be under selection and the Bayesian analysis also detected 27 loci as under selection. Among these 27 loci, 3 loci showed evidence of selection at a significance level using BayeScan program. On the other hand, up and downstream populations are strongly diverged at neutral loci with a Fst =0.37. Similar analysis will be done with all six populations to determine if there is a parallel pattern of adaptation across all streams. Furthermore, multi-locus among population covariance analysis will be done to identify potential markers under selection as well as to compare single locus versus multi-locus approaches for detecting local adaptation. Adaptive genes identified in this study can be used for future studies to design primers and test for adaptation in related crustacean species.

Keywords: Paratya australiensis, rainforest streams, selection, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs)

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Authors: Morteza Sharifhasan, Davoud Hosseini, Mohammad. R. Salimpour

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The geothermal energy is considered as a worldwide important renewable energy in recent years due to rising environmental pollution concerns. Low- and medium-grade geothermal heat (< 200 ºC) is commonly employed for space heating and in domestic hot water supply. However, there is also much interest in converting the abundant low- and medium-grade geothermal heat into electrical power. The Iranian Ministry of Power - through the Iran Renewable Energy Organization (SUNA) – is going to build the first Geothermal Power Plant (GPP) in Iran in the Sabalan area in the Northwest of Iran. This project is a 5.5 MWe single flash steam condensing power plant. The efficiency of GPPs is low due to the relatively low pressure and temperature of the saturated steam. In addition to GPPs, Gas Turbines (GTs) are also known by their relatively low efficiency. The Iran ministry of Power is trying to increase the efficiency of these GTs by adding bottoming steam cycles to the GT to form what is known as combined gas/steam cycle. One of the most effective methods for increasing the efficiency is combined heat and power (CHP). This paper investigates the feasibility of superheating the saturated steam that enters the steam turbine of the Sabalan GPP (SGPP-1) to improve the energy efficiency and power output of the GPP. This purpose is achieved by combining the GPP with two 3.5 MWe GTs. In this method, the hot gases leaving GTs are utilized through a superheater similar to that used in the heat recovery steam generator of combined gas/steam cycle. Moreover, brine separated in the separator, hot gases leaving GTs and superheater are used for the supply of domestic hot water (in this paper, the cycle combined of GTs and CHP systems is named the modified SGPP-1) . In this research, based on the Heat Balance presented in the basic design documents of the SGPP-1, mathematical/numerical model of the power plant are developed together with the mentioned GTs and CHP systems. Based on the required hot water, the amount of hot gasses needed to pass through CHP section directly can be adjusted. For example, during summer when hot water is less required, the hot gases leaving both GTs pass through the superheater and CHP systems respectively. On the contrary, in order to supply the required hot water during the winter, the hot gases of one of the GTs enter the CHP section directly, without passing through the super heater section. The results show that there is an increase in thermal efficiency up to 40% through using the modified SGPP-1. Since the gross efficiency of SGPP-1 is 9.6%, the achieved increase in thermal efficiency is significant. The power output of SGPP-1 is increased up to 40% in summer (from 5.5MW to 7.7 MW) while the GTs power output remains almost unchanged. Meanwhile, the combined-cycle power output increases from the power output of the two separate plants of 12.5 MW [5.5+ (2×3.5)] to the combined-cycle power output of 14.7 [7.7+(2×3.5)]. This output is more than 17% above the output of the two separate plants. The modified SGPP-1 is capable of producing 215 T/Hr hot water ( 90 ºC ) for domestic use in the winter months.

Keywords: combined cycle, chp, efficiency, gas turbine, geothermal power plant, gas turbine, power output

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Chii-Dong Ho, Jian-Har Chen

Abstract:

The decline in permeate flux across membrane modules is attributed to the increase in temperature polarization resistance in flat-plate Direct Contact Membrane Distillation (DCMD) modules for pure water productivity. Researchers have discovered that this effect can be diminished by embedding turbulence promoters, which augment turbulence intensity at the cost of increased power consumption, thereby improving vapor permeate flux. The device performance of DCMD modules for permeate flux was further enhanced by shrinking the hydraulic diameters of inserted S-ribs carbon-fiber promoters as well as considering the energy consumption increment. The mass-balance formulation, based on the resistance-in-series model by energy conservation in one-dimensional governing equations, was developed theoretically and conducted experimentally on a flat-plate polytetrafluoroethylene/polypropylene (PTFE/PP) membrane module to predict permeate flux and temperature distributions. The ratio of permeate flux enhancement to energy consumption increment, as referred to an assessment on economic viewpoint and technical feasibilities, was calculated to determine the suitable design parameters for DCMD operations with the insertion of S-ribs carbon-fiber turbulence promoters. An economic analysis was also performed, weighing both permeate flux improvement and energy consumption increment on modules with promoter-filled channels by different array configurations and various hydraulic diameters of turbulence promoters. Results showed that the ratio of permeate flux improvement to energy consumption increment in descending hydraulic-diameter modules is higher than in uniform hydraulic-diameter modules. The fabrication details of the DCMD module filaments implementing the S-ribs carbon-fiber filaments and the schematic configuration of the flat-plate DCMD experimental setup with presenting acrylic plates as external walls were demonstrated in the present study. The S-ribs carbon fibers perform as turbulence promoters incorporated into the artificial hot saline feed stream, which was prepared by adding inorganic salts (NaCl) to distilled water. Theoretical predictions and experimental results exhibited a great accomplishment to considerably achieve permeate flux enhancement, such as the new design of the DCMD module with inserting S-ribs carbon-fiber promoters. Additionally, the Nusselt number for the water vapor transferring membrane module with inserted S-ribs carbon-fiber promoters was generalized into a simplified expression to predict the heat transfer coefficient and permeate flux as well.

Keywords: permeate flux, Nusselt number, DCMD module, temperature polarization, hydraulic diameters

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Authors: Keenoo Bibi Sumera, Alsheikh Mona, Mubarak Jan Beebee Zeba Mahetaab

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Background: Due to the busy schedule of the practicing clinicians at the hospitals, students may not always be attended to, which is to their detriment. The clinicians at the hospitals are also not always acquainted with teaching and/or supervising students on their placements. Additionally, there is a high student-patient ratio. Since they are the prospective clinical doctors under training, they need to reach the competence levels in clinical decision-making skills to be able to serve the healthcare system of the country and to be safe doctors. Aims and Objectives: A reflective portfolio was used to provide a means for students to learn by reflecting on their experiences and obtaining continuous feedback. This practice is an attempt to compensate for the scarcity of lack of resources, that is, clinical placement supervisors and patients. It is also anticipated that it will provide learners with a continuous monitoring and learning gap analysis tool for their clinical skills. Methodology: A hardcopy reflective portfolio was designed and validated. The portfolio incorporated a mini clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX), direct observation of procedural skills and reflection sections. Workshops were organized for the stakeholders, that is the management, faculty and students, separately. The rationale of reflection was emphasized. Students were given samples of reflective writing. The portfolio was then implemented amongst the undergraduate medical students of years four, five and six during clinical clerkship. After 16 weeks of implementation of the portfolio, a survey questionnaire was introduced to explore how undergraduate students perceive the educational value of the reflective portfolio and its impact on their deep information processing. Results: The majority of the respondents are in MD Year 5. Out of 52 respondents, 57.7% were doing the internal medicine clinical placement rotation, and 42.3% were in Otorhinolaryngology clinical placement rotation. The respondents believe that the implementation of a reflective portfolio helped them identify their weaknesses, gain professional development in terms of helping them to identify areas where the knowledge is good, increase the learning value if it is used as a formative assessment, try to relate to different courses and in improving their professional skills. However, it is not necessary that the portfolio will improve the self-esteem of respondents or help in developing their critical thinking, The portfolio takes time to complete, and the supervisors are not useful. They had to chase supervisors for feedback. 53.8% of the respondents followed the Gibbs reflective model to write the reflection, whilst the others did not follow any guidelines to write the reflection 48.1% said that the feedback was helpful, 17.3% preferred the use of written feedback, whilst 11.5% preferred oral feedback. Most of them suggested more frequent feedback. 59.6% of respondents found the current portfolio user-friendly, and 28.8% thought it was too bulky. 27.5% have mentioned that for a mobile application. Conclusion: The reflective portfolio, through the reflection of their work and regular feedback from supervisors, has an overall positive impact on the learning process of undergraduate medical students during their clinical clerkship.

Keywords: Portfolio, Reflection, Feedback, Clinical Placement, Undergraduate Medical Education

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Amany Abdelrazek

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Fashion is considered the main feature of modern and postmodern capitalist and consumerist society. Consumer historians maintain that fashion, namely, a sector of people embracing a prevailing clothing style for a short period, started during the Middle Ages but gained popularity later. It symbolised the transition from a medieval society with its solid fixed religious values into a modern society with its secular consumer dynamic culture. Renaissance society was a modern secular society concerning its preoccupation with daily life and changing circumstances. Yet, the late 18th-century industrial revolution revolutionised thought and ideology in Europe. The Industrial Revolution reinforced the Western belief in rationality and strengthened the position of science. In such a rational Western society, modernity, with its new ideas, came to challenge the whole idea of old fixed norms, reflecting the modern secular, rational culture and renouncing the medieval pious consumer. In modern society, supported by the industrial revolution and mass production, fashion encouraged broader sectors of society to integrate into fashion reserved for the aristocracy and royal courts. Moreover, the fashion project emphasizes the human body and its beauty, contradicting Judeo-Christian culture, which tends to abhor and criticize interest in sensuality and hedonism. In mainstream Western discourse, fashionable dress differentiates between emancipated stylish consumerist secular modern female and the assumed oppressed traditional modest religious female. Opposing this discourse, I look at the controversy over what has been called "Islamic fashion" that started during the 1980s and continued to gain popularity in contemporary Egyptian society. I discuss the challenges of being a fashionable and Muslim practicing female in light of two prominent models for female "Islamic fashion" in postcolonial Egypt; Jasmin Mohshen, the first hijabi model in Egypt and Manal Rostom, the first Muslim woman to represent the Nike campaign in the Middle East. The research employs fashion and postcolonial theories to rethink current Muslim women's position on women's emancipation, Western modernity and practising faith in postcolonial Egypt. The paper argues that Muslim women's current innovative and fashionable dress can work as a counter-discourse to the Orientalist and exclusive representation of non-Western Muslim culture as an inherently inert timeless culture. Furthermore, "Islamic" fashionable dress as an aesthetic medium for expressing ideas and convictions in contemporary Egypt interrogates the claim of universal secular modernity and Western fashion theorists' reluctance to consider Islamic fashion as fashion.

Keywords: fashion, muslim women, modernity, secularism

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Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

Abstract:

Highway networks play a vital role in post-disaster recovery for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such networks can disrupt the recovery activities by impeding the transportation of people, cargo, and reconstruction resources. Therefore, rapid restoration of damaged bridges is of paramount importance to long-term disaster recovery. In the post-disaster recovery phase, the key to restoration scheduling for a highway network is prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. Resilience is widely used as a measure of the ability to recover with which a network can return to its pre-disaster level of functionality. In practice, highways will be temporarily blocked during the downtime of bridge restoration, leading to the decrease of highway-network functionality. The failure to take downtime effects into account can lead to overestimation of network resilience. Additionally, post-disaster recovery of highway networks is generally divided into emergency bridge repair (EBR) in the response phase and long-term bridge repair (LBR) in the recovery phase, and both of EBR and LBR are different in terms of restoration objectives, restoration duration, budget, etc. Distinguish these two phases are important to precisely quantify highway network resilience and generate suitable restoration schedules for highway networks in the recovery phase. To address the above issues, this study proposes a novel resilience quantification method for the optimization of long-term bridge repair schedules (LBRS) taking into account the impact of EBR activities and restoration downtime on a highway network’s functionality. A time-dependent integer program with recursive functions is formulated for optimally scheduling LBR activities. Moreover, since uncertainty always exists in the LBRS problem, this paper extends the optimization model from the deterministic case to the stochastic case. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. The proposed methods are tested using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that, in this case, neglecting the bridge restoration downtime can lead to approximately 15% overestimation of highway network resilience. Moreover, accounting for the impact of EBR on network functionality can help to generate a more specific and reasonable LBRS. The theoretical and practical values are as follows. First, the proposed network recovery curve contributes to comprehensive quantification of highway network resilience by accounting for the impact of both restoration downtime and EBR activities on the recovery curves. Moreover, this study can improve the highway network resilience from the organizational dimension by providing bridge managers with optimal LBR strategies.

Keywords: disaster management, highway network, long-term bridge repair schedule, resilience, restoration downtime

Procedia PDF Downloads 151