Search results for: quantile modelling

Authors: Yury S. Shpanskiy, Boris V. Kuteev

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Development of a fusion-fission hybrid facility based on superconducting conventional tokamak DEMO-FNS runs in Russia since 2013. The main design goal is to reach the technical feasibility and outline prospects of industrial hybrid technologies providing the production of neutrons, fuel nuclides, tritium, high-temperature heat, electricity and subcritical transmutation in Fusion-Fission Hybrid Systems. The facility should operate in a steady-state mode at the fusion power of 40 MW and fission reactions of 400 MW. Major tokamak parameters are the following: major radius R=3.2 m, minor radius a=1.0 m, elongation 2.1, triangularity 0.5. The design provides the neutron wall loading of ~0.2 MW/m², the lifetime neutron fluence of ~2 MWa/m², with the surface area of the active cores and tritium breeding blanket ~100 m². Core plasma modelling showed that the neutron yield ~10¹⁹ n/s is maximal if the tritium/deuterium density ratio is 1.5-2.3. The design of the electromagnetic system (EMS) defined its basic parameters, accounting for the coils strength and stability, and identified the most problematic nodes in the toroidal field coils and the central solenoid. The EMS generates toroidal, poloidal and correcting magnetic fields necessary for the plasma shaping and confinement inside the vacuum vessel. EMC consists of eighteen superconducting toroidal field coils, eight poloidal field coils, five sections of a central solenoid, correction coils, in-vessel coils for vertical plasma control. Supporting structures, the thermal shield, and the cryostat maintain its operation. EMS operates with the pulse duration of up to 5000 hours at the plasma current up to 5 MA. The vacuum vessel (VV) is an all-welded two-layer toroidal shell placed inside the EMS. The free space between the vessel shells is filled with water and boron steel plates, which form the neutron protection of the EMS. The VV-volume is 265 m³, its mass with manifolds is 1800 tons. The nuclear blanket of DEMO-FNS facility was designed to provide functions of minor actinides transmutation, tritium production and enrichment of spent nuclear fuel. The vertical overloading of the subcritical active cores with MA was chosen as prospective. Analysis of the device neutronics and the hybrid blanket thermal-hydraulic characteristics has been performed for the system with functions covering transmutation of minor actinides, production of tritium and enrichment of spent nuclear fuel. A study of FNS facilities role in the Russian closed nuclear fuel cycle was performed. It showed that during ~100 years of operation three FNS facilities with fission power of 3 GW controlled by fusion neutron source with power of 40 MW can burn 98 tons of minor actinides and 198 tons of Pu-239 can be produced for startup loading of 20 fast reactors. Instead of Pu-239, up to 25 kg of tritium per year may be produced for startup of fusion reactors using blocks with lithium orthosilicate instead of fissile breeder blankets.

Keywords: fusion-fission hybrid system, conventional tokamak, superconducting electromagnetic system, two-layer vacuum vessel, subcritical active cores, nuclear fuel cycle

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Authors: Danlei Yang, Luofeng Huang

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The integration of digital twin technology with renewable energy systems offers an innovative approach to predicting and optimising performance throughout the entire lifecycle. A digital twin is a continuously updated virtual replica of a real-world entity, synchronised with data from its physical counterpart and environment. Many digital twin companies today claim to have mature digital twin products, but their focus is primarily on equipment visualisation. However, the core of a digital twin should be its model, which can mirror, shadow, and thread with the real-world entity, which is still underdeveloped. For a floating solar energy system, a digital twin model can be defined in three aspects: (a) the physical floating solar energy system along with environmental factors such as solar irradiance and wave dynamics, (b) a digital model powered by artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, and (c) the integration of real system data with the AI-driven model and a user interface. The experimental setup for the floating solar energy system, is designed to replicate real-ocean conditions of floating solar installations within a controlled laboratory environment. The system consists of a water tank that simulates an aquatic surface, where a floating catamaran structure supports a solar panel. The solar simulator is set up in three positions: one directly above and two inclined at a 45° angle in front and behind the solar panel. This arrangement allows the simulation of different sun angles, such as sunrise, midday, and sunset. The solar simulator is positioned 400 mm away from the solar panel to maintain consistent solar irradiance on its surface. Stability for the floating structure is achieved through ropes attached to anchors at the bottom of the tank, which simulates the mooring systems used in real-world floating solar applications. The floating solar energy system's sensor setup includes various devices to monitor environmental and operational parameters. An irradiance sensor measures solar irradiance on the photovoltaic (PV) panel. Temperature sensors monitor ambient air and water temperatures, as well as the PV panel temperature. Wave gauges measure wave height, while load cells capture mooring force. Inclinometers and ultrasonic sensors record heave and pitch amplitudes of the floating system’s motions. An electric load measures the voltage and current output from the solar panel. All sensors collect data simultaneously. Artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms are central to developing the digital model, which processes historical and real-time data, identifies patterns, and predicts the system’s performance in real time. The data collected from various sensors are partly used to train the digital model, with the remaining data reserved for validation and testing. The digital twin model combines the experimental setup with the ANN model, enabling monitoring, analysis, and prediction of the floating solar energy system's operation. The digital model mirrors the functionality of the physical setup, running in sync with the experiment to provide real-time insights and predictions. It provides useful industrial benefits, such as informing maintenance plans as well as design and control strategies for optimal energy efficiency. In long term, this digital twin will help improve overall solar energy yield whilst minimising the operational costs and risks.

Keywords: digital twin, floating solar energy system, experiment setup, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Nicola Colaninno, Eugenio Morello

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The urban environment affects local-to-global climate and, in turn, suffers global warming phenomena, with worrying impacts on human well-being, health, social and economic activities. Physic-morphological features of the built-up space affect urban air temperature, locally, causing the urban environment to be warmer compared to surrounding rural. This occurrence, typically known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI), is normally assessed by means of air temperature from fixed weather stations and/or traverse observations or based on remotely sensed Land Surface Temperatures (LST). The information provided by ground weather stations is key for assessing local air temperature. However, the spatial coverage is normally limited due to low density and uneven distribution of the stations. Although different interpolation techniques such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), or Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) are used to estimate air temperature from observed points, such an approach may not effectively reflect the real climatic conditions of an interpolated point. Quantifying local UHI for extensive areas based on weather stations’ observations only is not practicable. Alternatively, the use of thermal remote sensing has been widely investigated based on LST. Data from Landsat, ASTER, or MODIS have been extensively used. Indeed, LST has an indirect but significant influence on air temperatures. However, high-resolution near-surface air temperature (NSAT) is currently difficult to retrieve. Here we have experimented Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) as an effective approach to enable NSAT estimation by accounting for spatial non-stationarity of the phenomenon. The model combines on-site measurements of air temperature, from fixed weather stations and satellite-derived LST. The approach is structured upon two main steps. First, a GWR model has been set to estimate NSAT at low resolution, by combining air temperature from discrete observations retrieved by weather stations (dependent variable) and the LST from satellite observations (predictor). At this step, MODIS data, from Terra satellite, at 1 kilometer of spatial resolution have been employed. Two time periods are considered according to satellite revisit period, i.e. 10:30 am and 9:30 pm. Afterward, the results have been downscaled at 30 meters of spatial resolution by setting a GWR model between the previously retrieved near-surface air temperature (dependent variable), the multispectral information as provided by the Landsat mission, in particular the albedo, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), both at 30 meters. Albedo and DEM are now the predictors. The area under investigation is the Metropolitan City of Milan, which covers an area of approximately 1,575 km2 and encompasses a population of over 3 million inhabitants. Both models, low- (1 km) and high-resolution (30 meters), have been validated according to a cross-validation that relies on indicators such as R2, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). All the employed indicators give evidence of highly efficient models. In addition, an alternative network of weather stations, available for the City of Milano only, has been employed for testing the accuracy of the predicted temperatures, giving and RMSE of 0.6 and 0.7 for daytime and night-time, respectively.

Keywords: urban climate, urban heat island, geographically weighted regression, remote sensing

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Authors: Chris Fersterer, Col Fay, Tobias Danielmeier, Kat Achterberg, Scott Willis

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New Zealand, an island nation, has an extensive coastline peppered with small communities of iconic buildings known as Bachs. Post WWII, these modest buildings were constructed by their owners as retreats and generally were small, low cost, often using recycled material and often they fell below current acceptable building standards. In the latter part of the 20^th century, real estate prices in many of these communities remained low and these areas became permanent residences for people attracted to this affordable lifestyle choice. The Blueskin Resilient Communities Trust (BRCT) is an organisation that recognises the vulnerability of communities in low lying settlements as now being prone to increased flood threat brought about by climate change and sea level rise. Some of the inhabitants of Blueskin Bay, Otago, NZ have already found their properties to be un-insurable because of increased frequency of flood events and property values have slumped accordingly. Territorial authorities also acknowledge this increased risk and have created additional compliance measures for new buildings that are less than 2 m above tidal peaks. Community resilience becomes an additional concern where inhabitants are attracted to a lifestyle associated with a specific location and its people when this lifestyle is unable to be met in a suburban or city context. Traditional models of social housing fail to provide the sense of community connectedness and identity enjoyed by the current residents of Blueskin Bay. BRCT have partnered with the Otago Polytechnic Design School to design a new form of community housing that can react to this environmental change. It is a longitudinal project incorporating participatory approaches as a means of getting people ‘on board’, to understand complex systems and co-develop solutions. In the first period, they are seeking industry support and funding to develop a transportable and fully self-contained housing model that exploits current technologies. BRCT also hope that the building will become an educational tool to highlight climate change issues facing us today. This paper uses the Climate Safe House (CSH) as a case study for education in architectural sustainability through experiential learning offered as part of the Otago Polytechnics Bachelor of Design. Students engage with the project with research methodologies, including site surveys, resident interviews, data sourced from government agencies and physical modelling. The process involves collaboration across design disciplines including product and interior design but also includes connections with industry, both within the education institution and stakeholder industries introduced through BRCT. This project offers a rich learning environment where students become engaged through project based learning within a community of practice, including architecture, construction, energy and other related fields. The design outcomes are expressed in a series of public exhibitions and forums where community input is sought in a truly participatory process.

Keywords: community resilience, problem based learning, project based learning, case study

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Authors: Deon Bezuidenhout

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Pre-seeding with autologous endothelial cells improves the long-term patency of synthetic vascular grafts levels obtained with autografts, but is limited to a single centre due to resource, time and other constraints. Spontaneous in vivo endothelialization would obviate the need for pre-seeding, but has been shown to be absent in man due to limited transanastomotic and fallout healing, and the lack of transmural ingrowth due to insufficient porosity. Two types of graft scaffolds with increased interconnected porosity for improved tissue ingrowth and healing are thus proposed and described. Foam-type polyurethane (PU) scaffolds with small, medium and large, interconnected pores were made by phase inversion and spherical porogen extraction, with and without additional surface modification with covalently attached heparin and subsequent loading with and delivery of growth factors. Fibrillar scaffolds were made either by standard electrospinning using degradable PU (Degrapol®), or by dual electrospinning using non-degradable PU. The latter process involves sacrificial fibres that are co-spun with structural fibres and subsequently removed to increased porosity and pore size. Degrapol samples were subjected to in vitro degradation, and all scaffold types were evaluated in vivo for tissue ingrowth and vascularization using rat subcutaneous model. The foam scaffolds were additionally evaluated in a circulatory (rat infrarenal aortic interposition) model that allows for the grafts to be anastomotically and/or ablumenally isolated to discern and determine endothelialization mode. Foam-type grafts with large (150 µm) pores showed improved subcutaneous healing in terms of vascularization and inflammatory response over smaller pore sizes (60 and 90µm), and vascularization of the large porosity scaffolds was significantly increased by more than 70% by heparin modification alone, and by 150% to 400% when combined with growth factors. In the circulatory model, extensive transmural endothelialization (95±10% at 12 w) was achieved. Fallout healing was shown to be sporadic and limited in groups that were ablumenally isolated to prevent transmural ingrowth (16±30% wrapped vs. 80±20% control; p<0.002). Heparinization and GF delivery improved both mural vascularization and lumenal endothelialization. Degrapol electrospun scaffolds showed decrease in molecular mass and corresponding tensile strength over the first 2 weeks, but very little decrease in mass over the 4w test period. Studies on the effect of tissue ingrowth with and without concomitant degradation of the scaffolds, are being used to develop material models for the finite element modelling. In the case of the dual-spun scaffolds, the PU fibre fraction could be controlled shown to vary linearly with porosity (P = −0.18FF +93.5, r2=0.91), which in turn showed inverse linear correlation with tensile strength and elastic modulus (r2 > 0.96). Calculated compliance and burst pressures of the scaffolds increased with fibre fraction, and compliances matching the human popliteal artery (5-10 %/100 mmHg), and high burst pressures (> 2000 mmHg) could be achieved. Increasing porosity (76 to 82 and 90%) resulted in increased tissue ingrowth from 33±7 to 77±20 and 98±1% after 28d. Transmural endothelialization of highly porous foamed grafts is achievable in a circulatory model, and the enhancement of porosity and tissue ingrowth may hold the key the development of spontaneously endothelializing electrospun grafts.

Keywords: electrospinning, endothelialization, porosity, scaffold, vascular graft

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Authors: Kasun P. Wijayaratna, Lauren Gardner, Taha Hossein Rashidi

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Undergraduate students entering university across the last 2 to 3 years tend to be born during the middle years of the 1990s. This generation of students has been exposed to the internet and the desire and dependency on technology since childhood. Brains develop based on environmental influences and technology has wired this generation of student to be attuned to sophisticated complex visual imagery, indicating visual forms of learning may be more effective than the traditional lecture or discussion formats. Furthermore, post-millennials perspectives on career are not focused solely on stability and income but are strongly driven by interest, entrepreneurship and innovation. Accordingly, it is important for educators to acknowledge the generational shift and tailor the delivery of learning material to meet the expectations of the students and the needs of industry. In the context of transport engineering, effectively teaching undergraduate students the basic principles of transport planning, traffic engineering and highway design is fundamental to the progression of the profession from a practice and research perspective. Recent developments in technology have transformed the discipline as practitioners and researchers move away from the traditional “pen and paper” approach to methods involving the use of computer programs and simulation. Further, enhanced accessibility of technology for students has changed the way they understand and learn material being delivered at tertiary education institutions. As a consequence, blended learning approaches, which aim to integrate face to face teaching with flexible self-paced learning resources, have become prevalent to provide scalable education that satisfies the expectations of students. This research study involved the development of a series of ‘Blended Learning’ initiatives implemented within an introductory transport planning and geometric design course, CVEN2401: Sustainable Transport and Highway Engineering, taught at the University of New South Wales, Australia. CVEN2401 was modified by conducting interactive polling exercises during lectures, including weekly online quizzes, offering a series of supplementary learning videos, and implementing a realistic design project that students needed to complete using modelling software that is widely used in practice. These activities and resources were aimed to improve the learning environment for a large class size in excess of 450 students and to ensure that practical industry valued skills were introduced. The case study compared the 2016 and 2017 student cohorts based on their performance across assessment tasks as well as their reception to the material revealed through student feedback surveys. The initiatives were well received with a number of students commenting on the ability to complete self-paced learning and an appreciation of the exposure to a realistic design project. From an educator’s perspective, blending the course made it feasible to interact and engage with students. Personalised learning opportunities were made available whilst delivering a considerable volume of complex content essential for all undergraduate Civil and Environmental Engineering students. Overall, this case study highlights the value of blended learning initiatives, especially in the context of large class size university courses.

Keywords: blended learning, highway design, teaching, transport planning

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Authors: Margarita Dufresne

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This study devoted to development TPS for small space re-usable launchers. We have used SIRIUS design for S1 prototype. Multiphysics coupling for hypersonic reactive flow and thermos-structural analysis with and without ablation is provided by -CCM+ and COMSOL Multiphysics and FASTRAN and ACE+. Flow around hypersonic flight vehicles is the interaction of multiple shocks and the interaction of shocks with boundary layers. These interactions can have a very strong impact on the aeroheating experienced by the flight vehicle. A real gas implies the existence of a gas in equilibrium, non-equilibrium. Mach number ranged from 5 to 10 for first stage flight.The goals of this effort are to provide validation of the iterative coupling of hypersonic physics models in STAR-CCM+ and FASTRAN with COMSOL Multiphysics and ACE+. COMSOL Multiphysics and ACE+ are used for thermal structure analysis to simulate Conjugate Heat Transfer, with Conduction, Free Convection and Radiation to simulate Heat Flux from hypersonic flow. The reactive simulations involve an air chemical model of five species: N, N2, NO, O and O2. Seventeen chemical reactions, involving dissociation and recombination probabilities calculation include in the Dunn/Kang mechanism. Forward reaction rate coefficients based on a modified Arrhenius equation are computed for each reaction. The algorithms employed to solve the reactive equations used the second-order numerical scheme is obtained by a “MUSCL” (Monotone Upstream-cantered Schemes for Conservation Laws) extrapolation process in the structured case. Coupled inviscid flux: AUSM+ flux-vector splitting The MUSCL third-order scheme in STAR-CCM+ provides third-order spatial accuracy, except in the vicinity of strong shocks, where, due to limiting, the spatial accuracy is reduced to second-order and provides improved (i.e., reduced) dissipation compared to the second-order discretization scheme. initial unstructured mesh is refined made using this initial pressure gradient technique for the shock/shock interaction test case. The suggested by NASA turbulence models are the K-Omega SST with a1 = 0.355 and QCR (quadratic) as the constitutive option. Specified k and omega explicitly in initial conditions and in regions – k = 1E-6 *Uinf^2 and omega = 5*Uinf/ (mean aerodynamic chord or characteristic length). We put into practice modelling tips for hypersonic flow as automatic coupled solver, adaptative mesh refinement to capture and refine shock front, using advancing Layer Mesher and larger prism layer thickness to capture shock front on blunt surfaces. The temperature range from 300K to 30 000 K and pressure between 1e-4 and 100 atm. FASTRAN and ACE+ are coupled to provide high-fidelity solution for hot hypersonic reactive flow and Conjugate Heat Transfer. The results of both approaches meet the CIRCA wind tunnel results.

Keywords: hypersonic, first stage, high speed compressible flow, shock wave, aerodynamic heating, conugate heat transfer, conduction, free convection, radiation, fastran, ace+, comsol multiphysics, star-ccm+, thermal protection system (tps), space launcher, wind tunnel

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Authors: Rita Sassine, Yassine Hassani, Mohamad Al Omari, Stéphanie Guibert

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Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the process of creating, managing, and centralizing information during the building lifecycle. BIM can be used all over a construction project, from the initiation phase to the planning and execution phases to the maintenance and lifecycle management phase. For existing buildings, BIM can be used for specific applications such as lifecycle management. However, most of the existing buildings don’t have a BIM model. Creating a compatible BIM for existing buildings is very challenging. It requires special equipment for data capturing and efforts to convert these data into a BIM model. The main difficulties for such projects are to define the data needed, the level of development (LOD), and the methodology to be adopted. In addition to managing information for an existing building, studying the impact of the built environment is a challenging topic. So, integrating the existing terrain that surrounds buildings into the digital model is essential to be able to make several simulations as flood simulation, energy simulation, etc. Making a replication of the physical model and updating its information in real-time to make its Digital Twin (DT) is very important. The Digital Terrain Model (DTM) represents the ground surface of the terrain by a set of discrete points with unique height values over 2D points based on reference surface (e.g., mean sea level, geoid, and ellipsoid). In addition, information related to the type of pavement materials, types of vegetation and heights and damaged surfaces can be integrated. Our aim in this study is to define the methodology to be used in order to provide a 3D BIM model for the site and the existing building based on the case study of “Ecole Spéciale des Travaux Publiques (ESTP Paris)” school of engineering campus. The property is located on a hilly site of 5 hectares and is composed of more than 20 buildings with a total area of 32 000 square meters and a height between 50 and 68 meters. In this work, the campus precise levelling grid according to the NGF-IGN69 altimetric system and the grid control points are computed according to (Réseau Gédésique Français) RGF93 – Lambert 93 french system with different methods: (i) Land topographic surveying methods using robotic total station, (ii) GNSS (Global Network Satellite sytem) levelling grid with NRTK (Network Real Time Kinematic) mode, (iii) Point clouds generated by laser scanning. These technologies allow the computation of multiple building parameters such as boundary limits, the number of floors, the floors georeferencing, the georeferencing of the 4 base corners of each building, etc. Once the entry data are identified, the digital model of each building is done. The DTM is also modeled. The process of altimetric determination is complex and requires efforts in order to collect and analyze multiple data formats. Since many technologies can be used to produce digital models, different file formats such as DraWinG (DWG), LASer (LAS), Comma-separated values (CSV), Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) and ReViT (RVT) will be generated. Checking the interoperability between BIM models is very important. In this work, all models are linked together and shared on 3DEXPERIENCE collaborative platform.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital terrain model, existing buildings, interoperability

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Authors: Alejandra Martin-Dominguez, Javier Canto-Rios, Velitchko Tzatchkov

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Electrocoagulation is a water treatment technology that consists of generating coagulant species in situ by electrolytic oxidation of sacrificial anode materials triggered by electric current. It removes suspended solids, heavy metals, emulsified oils, bacteria, colloidal solids and particles, soluble inorganic pollutants and other contaminants from water, offering an alternative to the use of metal salts or polymers and polyelectrolyte addition for breaking stable emulsions and suspensions. The method essentially consists of passing the water being treated through pairs of consumable conductive metal plates in parallel, which act as monopolar electrodes, commonly known as ‘sacrificial electrodes’. Physicochemical, electrochemical and hydraulic processes are involved in the efficiency of this type of treatment. While the physicochemical and electrochemical aspects of the technology have been extensively studied, little is known about the influence of the hydraulics. However, the hydraulic process is fundamental for the reactions that take place at the electrode boundary layers and for the coagulant mixing. Electrocoagulation reactors can be open (with free water surface) and closed (pressurized). Independently of the type of rector, hydraulic head loss is an important factor for its design. The present work focuses on the study of the total hydraulic head loss and flow velocity and pressure distribution in electrocoagulation reactors with single or multiple concentric annular cross sections. An analysis of the head loss produced by hydraulic wall shear friction and accessories (minor head losses) is presented, and compared to the head loss measured on a semi-pilot scale laboratory model for different flow rates through the reactor. The tests included laminar, transitional and turbulent flow. The observed head loss was compared also to the head loss predicted by several known conceptual theoretical and empirical equations, specific for flow in concentric annular pipes. Four single concentric annular cross section and one multiple concentric annular cross section reactor configuration were studied. The theoretical head loss resulted higher than the observed in the laboratory model in some of the tests, and lower in others of them, depending also on the assumed value for the wall roughness. Most of the theoretical models assume that the fluid elements in all annular sections have the same velocity, and that flow is steady, uniform and one-dimensional, with the same pressure and velocity profiles in all reactor sections. To check the validity of such assumptions, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the concentric annular pipe reactor was implemented using the ANSYS Fluent software, demonstrating that pressure and flow velocity distribution inside the reactor actually is not uniform. Based on the analysis, the equations that predict better the head loss in single and multiple annular sections were obtained. Other factors that may impact the head loss, such as the generation of coagulants and gases during the electrochemical reaction, the accumulation of hydroxides inside the reactor, and the change of the electrode material with time, are also discussed. The results can be used as tools for design and scale-up of electrocoagulation reactors, to be integrated into new or existing water treatment plants.

Keywords: electrocoagulation reactors, hydraulic head loss, concentric annular pipes, computational fluid dynamics model

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Authors: Bryan Jenkins

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Introduction: The expansion of irrigation in the Canterbury region has led to the sustainability limits being reached for water availability and the cumulative effects of land use intensification. The institutional framework under New Zealand’s Resource Management Act was found to be an inadequate basis for managing water at sustainability limits. An alternative paradigm for water management was developed based on collaborative governance and nested adaptive systems. This led to the formulation and implementation of the Canterbury Water Management Strategy. Methods: The nested adaptive system approach was adopted. Sustainability issues were identified at multiple spatial and time scales and defined potential failure pathways for the water resource system. These included biophysical and socio-economic issues such as water availability, cumulative effects on water quality due to land use intensification, projected changes in climate, public health, institutional arrangements, economic outcomes and externalities, and, social effects of changing technology. This led to the derivation of sustainability strategies to address these failure pathways. The collaborative governance approach involved stakeholder participation and community engagement to decide on a regional strategy; regional and zone committees of community and rūnanga (Māori groups) members to develop implementation programmes for the strategy; and, farmer collectives for operational management. Findings: The strategy identified improvements in the efficiency of use of water already allocated was more effective in improving water availability than a reliance on increased storage alone. New forms of storage with less adverse impacts were introduced, such as managed aquifer recharge and off-river storage. Reductions of nutrients from land use intensification by improving management practices has been a priority. Solutions packages for addressing the degradation of vulnerable lakes and rivers have been prepared. Biodiversity enhancement projects have been initiated. Greater involvement of Māori has led to the incorporation of kaitiakitanga (resource stewardship) into implementation programmes. Emerging issues are the need for improved integration of surface water and groundwater interactions, increased use of modelling of water and financial outcomes to guide decision making, and, equity in allocation among existing users as well as between existing and future users. Conclusions: However, sustainability analysis indicates that the proposed levels of management interventions are not sufficient to achieve community targets for water management. There is a need for more proactive recovery and rehabilitation measures. Managing to environmental limits is not sufficient, rather managing adaptive cycles is needed. Better measurement and management of water use efficiency is required. Proposed implementation packages are not sufficient to deliver desired water quality outcomes. Greater attention to targets important to environmental and recreational interests is needed to maintain trust in the collaborative process. Implementation programmes don’t adequately address climate change adaptations and greenhouse gas mitigation. Affordability is a constraint on adaptive capacity of farmers and communities. More funding mechanisms are required to implement proactive measures. The legislative and institutional framework needs to be changed to incorporate water framework legislation, regional sustainability strategies and water infrastructure coordination.

Keywords: collaborative governance, irrigation management, nested adaptive systems, sustainable water management

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Authors: Pierre-Andre Mudry, Jean Decaix, Jeremy Schmid, Cesar Papilloud, Cecile Munch-Alligne

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In most of the Swiss Alpine regions, the availability of water resources is usually adequate even in times of drought, as evidenced by the 2003 and 2018 summers. Indeed, important natural stocks are for the moment available in the form of snow and ice, but the situation is likely to change in the future due to global and regional climate change. In addition, alpine mountain regions are areas where climate change will be felt very rapidly and with high intensity. For instance, the ice regime of these regions has already been affected in recent years with a modification of the monthly availability and extreme events of precipitations. The current research, focusing on the municipality of Val de Bagnes, located in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, is part of a project led by the Altis company and achieved in collaboration with WSL, BlueArk Entremont, and HES-SO Valais-Wallis. In this region, water occupies a key position notably for winter and summer tourism. Thus, multiple actors want to apprehend the future needs and availabilities of water, on both the 2050 and 2100 horizons, in order to plan the modifications to the water supply and distribution networks. For those changes to be salient and efficient, a good knowledge of the current water distribution networks is of most importance. In the current case, the water drinking network is well documented, but this is not the case for the irrigation one. Since the water consumption for irrigation is ten times higher than for drinking water, data acquisition on the irrigation network is a major point to determine future scenarios. This paper first presents the instrumentation and simulation of the irrigation network using custom-designed IoT devices, which are coupled with a digital clone simulated to reduce the number of measuring locations. The developed IoT ad-hoc devices are energy-autonomous and can measure flows and pressures using industrial sensors such as calorimetric water flow meters. Measurements are periodically transmitted using the LoRaWAN protocol over a dedicated infrastructure deployed in the municipality. The gathered values can then be visualized in real-time on a dashboard, which also provides historical data for analysis. In a second phase, a digital clone of the irrigation network was modeled using EPANET, a software for water distribution systems that performs extended-period simulations of flows and pressures in pressurized networks composed of reservoirs, pipes, junctions, and sinks. As a preliminary work, only a part of the irrigation network was modelled and validated by comparisons with the measurements. The simulations are carried out by imposing the consumption of water at several locations. The validation is performed by comparing the simulated pressures are different nodes with the measured ones. An accuracy of +/- 15% is observed on most of the nodes, which is acceptable for the operator of the network and demonstrates the validity of the approach. Future steps will focus on the deployment of the measurement devices on the whole network and the complete modelling of the network. Then, scenarios of future consumption will be investigated. Acknowledgment— The authors would like to thank the Swiss Federal Office for Environment (FOEN), the Swiss Federal Office for Agriculture (OFAG) for their financial supports, and ALTIS for the technical support, this project being part of the Swiss Pilot program 'Adaptation aux changements climatiques'.

Keywords: hydraulic digital clone, IoT water monitoring, LoRaWAN water measurements, EPANET, irrigation network

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Authors: Elisa Coraggio, Dawei Han, Weiru Liu, Theo Tryfonas

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Water is one of the most important resources for human society. The world is currently undergoing a wave of urban growth, and pollution problems are of a great impact. Monitoring water quality is a key task for the future of the environment and human species. In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for environmental monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the artificial intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrates its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for the environment monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a new methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the Artificial Intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrate its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, hydroinformatics, numerical modelling, smart cities, water quality

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Authors: Yunwei Tang, Linhai Jing, Hui Li, Qingjie Liu, Xiuxia Li, Qi Yan, Haifeng Ding

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The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is an endangered species, mainly live in central China, where bamboos act as the main food source of wild giant pandas. Knowledge of spatial distribution of bamboos therefore becomes important for identifying the habitat of giant pandas. There have been ongoing studies for mapping bamboos and other tree species using remote sensing. WorldView-2 (WV-2) is the first high resolution commercial satellite with eight Multi-Spectral (MS) bands. Recent studies demonstrated that WV-2 imagery has a high potential in classification of tree species. The advanced classification techniques are important for utilising high spatial resolution imagery. It is generally agreed that object-based image analysis is a more desirable method than pixel-based analysis in processing high spatial resolution remotely sensed data. Classifiers that use spatial information combined with spectral information are known as contextual classifiers. It is suggested that contextual classifiers can achieve greater accuracy than non-contextual classifiers. Thus, spatial correlation can be incorporated into classifiers to improve classification results. The study area is located at Wuyipeng area in Wolong, Sichuan Province. The complex environment makes it difficult for information extraction since bamboos are sparsely distributed, mixed with brushes, and covered by other trees. Extensive fieldworks in Wuyingpeng were carried out twice. The first one was on 11th June, 2014, aiming at sampling feature locations for geometric correction and collecting training samples for classification. The second fieldwork was on 11th September, 2014, for the purposes of testing the classification results. In this study, spectral separability analysis was first performed to select appropriate MS bands for classification. Also, the reflectance analysis provided information for expanding sample points under the circumstance of knowing only a few. Then, a spatially weighted object-based k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) classifier was applied to the selected MS bands to identify seven land cover types (bamboo, conifer, broadleaf, mixed forest, brush, bare land, and shadow), accounting for spatial correlation within classes using geostatistical modelling. The spatially weighted k-NN method was compared with three alternatives: the traditional k-NN classifier, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART). Through field validation, it was proved that the classification result obtained using the spatially weighted k-NN method has the highest overall classification accuracy (77.61%) and Kappa coefficient (0.729); the producer’s accuracy and user’s accuracy achieve 81.25% and 95.12% for the bamboo class, respectively, also higher than the other methods. Photos of tree crowns were taken at sample locations using a fisheye camera, so the canopy density could be estimated. It is found that it is difficult to identify bamboo in the areas with a large canopy density (over 0.70); it is possible to extract bamboos in the areas with a median canopy density (from 0.2 to 0.7) and in a sparse forest (canopy density is less than 0.2). In summary, this study explores the ability of WV-2 imagery for bamboo extraction in a mountainous region in Sichuan. The study successfully identified the bamboo distribution, providing supporting knowledge for assessing the habitats of giant pandas.

Keywords: bamboo mapping, classification, geostatistics, k-NN, worldview-2

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Authors: Manuel I. Capel, Antonio Tomeu, Alberto Salguero

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Tumor growth from a transformed cancer-cell up to a clinically apparent mass spans through a range of spatial and temporal magnitudes. Through computer simulations, Cellular Automata (CA) can accurately describe the complexity of the development of tumors. Tumor development prognosis can now be made -without making patients undergo through annoying medical examinations or painful invasive procedures- if we develop appropriate CA-based software tools. In silico testing mainly refers to Computational Biology research studies of application to clinical actions in Medicine. To establish sound computer-based models of cellular behavior, certainly reduces costs and saves precious time with respect to carrying out experiments in vitro at labs or in vivo with living cells and organisms. These aim to produce scientifically relevant results compared to traditional in vitro testing, which is slow, expensive, and does not generally have acceptable reproducibility under the same conditions. For speeding up computer simulations of cellular models, specific literature shows recent proposals based on the CA approach that include advanced techniques, such the clever use of supporting efficient data structures when modeling with deterministic stochastic cellular automata. Multiparadigm and multiscale simulation of tumor dynamics is just beginning to be developed by the concerned research community. The use of stochastic cellular automata (SCA), whose parallel programming implementations are open to yield a high computational performance, are of much interest to be explored up to their computational limits. There have been some approaches based on optimizations to advance in multiparadigm models of tumor growth, which mainly pursuit to improve performance of these models through efficient memory accesses guarantee, or considering the dynamic evolution of the memory space (grids, trees,…) that holds crucial data in simulations. In our opinion, the different optimizations mentioned above are not decisive enough to achieve the high performance computing power that cell-behavior simulation programs actually need. The possibility of using multicore and GPU parallelism as a promising multiplatform and framework to develop new programming techniques to speed-up the computation time of simulations is just starting to be explored in the few last years. This paper presents a model that incorporates parallel processing, identifying the synchronization necessary for speeding up tumor growth simulations implemented in Java and C++ programming environments. The speed up improvement that specific parallel syntactic constructs, such as executors (thread pools) in Java, are studied. The new tumor growth parallel model is proved using implementations with Java and C++ languages on two different platforms: chipset Intel core i-X and a HPC cluster of processors at our university. The parallelization of Polesczuk and Enderling model (normally used by researchers in mathematical oncology) proposed here is analyzed with respect to performance gain. We intend to apply the model and overall parallelization technique presented here to solid tumors of specific affiliation such as prostate, breast, or colon. Our final objective is to set up a multiparadigm model capable of modelling angiogenesis, or the growth inhibition induced by chemotaxis, as well as the effect of therapies based on the presence of cytotoxic/cytostatic drugs.

Keywords: cellular automaton, tumor growth model, simulation, multicore and manycore programming, parallel programming, high performance computing, speed up

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Authors: Nada Al-Qallaf, Aisha Al-Barood, Djamel Lekmine, Srinivasan Vedhapuri

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) under the supervision of Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) is planning to remediate 26 million (M) m3 of oil-contaminated soil in oil fields of Kuwait as a direct and indirect fallout of the Gulf War during 1990-1991. This project is funded by the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) under the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). Oil-contamination of the soil occurred due to the destruction of the oil wells and spilled crude oil across the land surface and created ‘oil lakes’ in low lying land. Aerial fall-out from oil spray and combustion products from oil fires combined with the sand and gravel on the ground surface to form a layer of hardened ‘Tarcrete’. The unique fresh groundwater lenses present in the Raudhatain and Sabriya subsurface areas had been impacted by the discharge and/or spills of dissolved petroleum constituents. These fresh groundwater aquifers were used for drinking water purposes until 1990, prior to invasion. This has significantly damages altered the landscape, ecology and habitat of the flora and fauna and in Kuwait Desert. Under KERP, KOC is fully responsible for the planning and execution of the remediation and restoration projects in KOC oil fields. After the initial recommendation of UNCC to construct engineered landfills for containment and disposal of heavily contaminated soils, two landfills were constructed, one in North Kuwait and another in South East Kuwait of capacity 1.7 million m3 and 0.5 million m3 respectively. KOC further developed the Total Remediation Strategy in conjunction with KNFP and has obtained UNCC approval. The TRS comprises of elements such as Risk Based Approach (RBA), Bioremediation of low Contaminated Soil levels, Remediation Treatment Technologies, Sludge Disposal via Beneficial Recycling or Re-use and Engineered landfills for Containment of untreatable materials. Risk Based Assessment as a key component to avoid any unnecessary remedial works, where it can be demonstrated that human health and the environment are sufficiently protected in the absence of active remediation. This study demonstrates on the risks of tarcrete materials spread over areas 20 Km2 on the fresh Ground water lenses/catchment located beneath the Sabriyah and Raudhatain oil fields in North Kuwait. KOC’s primary objective is to provide justification of using RBA, to support a case with the Kuwait regulators to leave the tarcrete material in place, rather than seek to undertake large-scale removal and remediation. The large-scale coverage of the tarcrete in the oil fields and perception that the residual contamination associated with this source is present in an environmentally sensitive area essentially in ground water resource. As part of this assessment, conceptual site model (CSM) and complete risk-based and fate and transport modelling was carried out which includes derivation of site-specific assessment criteria (SSAC) and quantification of risk to identified waters resource receptors posed by tarcrete impacted areas. The outcome of this assessment was determined that the residual tarcrete deposits across the site area shall not create risks to fresh groundwater resources and the remedial action to remove and remediate the surficial tarcrete deposits is not warranted.

Keywords: conceptual site model, fresh groundwater, oil-contaminated soil, tarcrete, risk based assessment

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Authors: Denis Jordan, Daniel Golkowski, Mathias Lukas, Katharina Merz, Caroline Mlynarcik, Max Maurer, Valentin Riedl, Stefan Foerster, Eberhard F. Kochs, Andreas Bender, Ruediger Ilg

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Introduction: So far, clinical assessments that rely on behavioral responses to differentiate coma states or even predict outcome in coma patients are unreliable, e.g. because of some patients’ motor disabilities. The present study was aimed to provide prognosis in coma patients using markers from electroencephalogram (EEG), blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET). Unsuperwised principal component analysis (PCA) was used for multimodal integration of markers. Methods: Approved by the local ethics committee of the Technical University of Munich (Germany) 20 patients (aged 18-89) with severe brain damage were acquired through intensive care units at the Klinikum rechts der Isar in Munich and at the Therapiezentrum Burgau (Germany). At the day of EEG/fMRI/PET measurement (date I) patients (<3.5 month in coma) were grouped in the minimal conscious state (MCS) or vegetative state (VS) on the basis of their clinical presentation (coma recovery scale-revised, CRS-R). Follow-up assessment (date II) was also based on CRS-R in a period of 8 to 24 month after date I. At date I, 63 channel EEG (Brain Products, Gilching, Germany) was recorded outside the scanner, and subsequently simultaneous FDG-PET/fMRI was acquired on an integrated Siemens Biograph mMR 3T scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen Germany). Power spectral densities, permutation entropy (PE) and symbolic transfer entropy (STE) were calculated in/between frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital EEG channels. PE and STE are based on symbolic time series analysis and were already introduced as robust markers separating wakefulness from unconsciousness in EEG during general anesthesia. While PE quantifies the regularity structure of the neighboring order of signal values (a surrogate of cortical information processing), STE reflects information transfer between two signals (a surrogate of directed connectivity in cortical networks). fMRI was carried out using SPM12 (Wellcome Trust Center for Neuroimaging, University of London, UK). Functional images were realigned, segmented, normalized and smoothed. PET was acquired for 45 minutes in list-mode. For absolute quantification of brain’s glucose consumption rate in FDG-PET, kinetic modelling was performed with Patlak’s plot method. BOLD signal intensity in fMRI and glucose uptake in PET was calculated in 8 distinct cortical areas. PCA was performed over all markers from EEG/fMRI/PET. Prognosis (persistent VS and deceased patients vs. recovery to MCS/awake from date I to date II) was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) including bootstrap confidence intervals (CI, *: p<0.05). Results: Prognosis was reliably indicated by the first component of PCA (AUC=0.99*, CI=0.92-1.00) showing a higher AUC when compared to the best single markers (EEG: AUC<0.96*, fMRI: AUC<0.86*, PET: AUC<0.60). CRS-R did not show prediction (AUC=0.51, CI=0.29-0.78). Conclusion: In a multimodal analysis of EEG/fMRI/PET in coma patients, PCA lead to a reliable prognosis. The impact of this result is evident, as clinical estimates of prognosis are inapt at time and could be supported by quantitative biomarkers from EEG, fMRI and PET. Due to the small sample size, further investigations are required, in particular allowing superwised learning instead of the basic approach of unsuperwised PCA.

Keywords: coma states and prognosis, electroencephalogram, entropy, functional magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning, positron emission tomography, principal component analysis

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Authors: Filippo Verre

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This paper explores Turkey’s role as an influential waterpower in the Middle East, emphasizing the Peace Water Pipeline Project (PWPP) as a paradigm of hydro solidarity rather than conventional water diplomacy. Hydro solidarity transcends the strategic and often competitive nature of water diplomacy, highlighting cooperative, inclusive, and mutually beneficial approaches to water resource management. The PWPP, which aimed to transport freshwater from Turkey’s Manavgat River to several water-scarce nations in the Middle East, exemplifies this ethos. By providing a reliable water supply to address the chronic shortages in the region, the project underscored Turkey’s commitment to fostering regional cooperation, stability, and collective well-being through shared water resources. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the Peace Water Pipeline Project, examining its technical specifications, environmental impact, and political implications. It discusses how the project’s foundation on principles of hydro solidarity could facilitate stronger regional ties, mitigate water-related conflicts, and promote sustainable development. By prioritizing collective benefits over unilateral gains, Turkey’s approach exemplified a transformative model of resource sharing that could inspire similar initiatives globally. This paper argues that the Peace Water Pipeline Project serves as a crucial case study in demonstrating how shared natural resources can be leveraged to build trust, enhance cooperation, and achieve common goals in a geopolitically volatile region. The findings emphasize the importance of adopting hydro solidarity as a guiding principle for future transboundary water projects, showcasing how collaborative water management can play a pivotal role in fostering peace, security, and sustainable development in the Middle East and beyond. This research is based on a mixed methodological approach combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The most relevant qualitative methods will involve Case Studies and Content Analysis. Concretely, the Friendship Dam Project (FDP) between Turkey and Syria will be mentioned to underline the importance of hydro solidarity approaches as opposed to water diplomacy. Analyzing this case aims to identify factors that contribute to successful hydro solidarity agreements, such as effective communication channels, trust-building measures, and adaptive management practices. Concerning Content Analysis, reviewing and analyzing policy documents, treaties, media reports, and public statements will help identify the official narratives and discourses surrounding the PWPP. This method fully comprehends how different stakeholders frame the issues and what solutions they propose. The quantitative methodology used in this research, which complements the qualitative approaches, involves economic valuation, which quantifies the PWPP’s economic impacts on Turkey and the Middle Eastern region. This includes assessing the cost of construction and maintenance and the financial benefits derived from improved water access and reduced conflict. Hydrological modelling will also be used as a quantitative research method. Using hydrological models to simulate the water flow and distribution scenarios helps quantify the pipeline’s potential impacts on water resources. By assessing the sustainability of water extraction and predicting how changes in water availability might affect different regions, these models play a crucial role in this research, shedding light on the impact of transboundary infrastructures on water management.

Keywords: hydro-solidarity, Middle East, transboundary water management, peace water pipeline project, water scarcity

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Authors: Qiaosi Li, Frankie Kwan Kit Wong, Tung Fung

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Lightweight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) loading with novel sensors offers a low cost approach for data acquisition in complex environment. This study established a framework for applying UAV system in complex environment quick mapping and assessed the performance of UAV-based hyperspectral image and digital surface model (DSM) derived from photogrammetric point clouds for 13 species classification in wetland area Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar Site, Hong Kong. The study area was part of shallow bay with flat terrain and the major species including reedbed and four mangroves: Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Acrostichum auerum and Acanthus ilicifolius. Other species involved in various graminaceous plants, tarbor, shrub and invasive species Mikania micrantha. In particular, invasive species climbed up to the mangrove canopy caused damage and morphology change which might increase species distinguishing difficulty. Hyperspectral images were acquired by Headwall Nano sensor with spectral range from 400nm to 1000nm and 0.06m spatial resolution image. A sequence of multi-view RGB images was captured with 0.02m spatial resolution and 75% overlap. Hyperspectral image was corrected for radiative and geometric distortion while high resolution RGB images were matched to generate maximum dense point clouds. Furtherly, a 5 cm grid digital surface model (DSM) was derived from dense point clouds. Multiple feature reduction methods were compared to identify the efficient method and to explore the significant spectral bands in distinguishing different species. Examined methods including stepwise discriminant analysis (DA), support vector machine (SVM) and minimum noise fraction (MNF) transformation. Subsequently, spectral subsets composed of the first 20 most importance bands extracted by SVM, DA and MNF, and multi-source subsets adding extra DSM to 20 spectrum bands were served as input in maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) and SVM classifier to compare the classification result. Classification results showed that feature reduction methods from best to worst are MNF transformation, DA and SVM. MNF transformation accuracy was even higher than all bands input result. Selected bands frequently laid along the green peak, red edge and near infrared. Additionally, DA found that chlorophyll absorption red band and yellow band were also important for species classification. In terms of 3D data, DSM enhanced the discriminant capacity among low plants, arbor and mangrove. Meanwhile, DSM largely reduced misclassification due to the shadow effect and morphological variation of inter-species. In respect to classifier, nonparametric SVM outperformed than MLC for high dimension and multi-source data in this study. SVM classifier tended to produce higher overall accuracy and reduce scattered patches although it costs more time than MLC. The best result was obtained by combining MNF components and DSM in SVM classifier. This study offered a precision species distribution survey solution for inaccessible wetland area with low cost of time and labour. In addition, findings relevant to the positive effect of DSM as well as spectral feature identification indicated that the utility of UAV-borne hyperspectral and photogrammetry deriving 3D data is promising in further research on wetland species such as bio-parameters modelling and biological invasion monitoring.

Keywords: digital surface model (DSM), feature reduction, hyperspectral, photogrammetric point cloud, species mapping, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

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Authors: Mara Getachew Zenebe, Luuk Fleskens, Abdu Obieda Ahmed

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This paper seeks to advance our scientific understanding of optimizing flood utilization in regions impacted by climate change, with a focus on enhancing agricultural productivity through effective irrigation management. The study was conducted as part of a three-year (2021 to 2023) USAID-supported initiative aimed at promoting Economic Growth and Peace in the Gash Agricultural Scheme (GAS), situated in Sudan's water-stressed Eastern region. GAS is the country's largest flood-irrigated scheme, covering 100,800 hectares of cultivable land, with a potential to provide the food security needs of over a quarter of a million agro-pastoral community members. GAS relies on the Gash River, which sources its water from high-intensity rainfall events in the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, climate change and variations in these highlands have led to increased variability in the Gash River's flow. The study conducted water balance analyses based on a ten-year dataset of the annual Gash River flow, irrigated area; as well as the evapotranspiration demand of the major sorghum crop. Data collection methods included field measurements, surveys, remote sensing, and CropWat modelling. The water balance assessment revealed that the existing three-year rotation-based irrigation system management, capping cultivated land at 33,000 hectares annually, is excessively risk-averse. While this system reduced conflicts among the agro-pastoral communities by consistently delivering on the land promised to be annually cultivated, it also increased GAS's vulnerability to flood damage due to several reasons. The irrigation efficiency over the past decade was approximately 30%, leaving significant unharnessed floodwater that caused damage to infrastructure and agricultural land. The three-year rotation resulted in inadequate infrastructural maintenance, given the destructive nature of floods. Additionally, it led to infrequent land tillage, allowing the encroachment of mesquite trees hindering major sorghum crop growth. Remote sensing data confirmed that mesquite trees have overtaken 70,000 hectares in the past two decades, rendering them unavailable for agriculture. The water balance analyses suggest shifting to a two-year rotation, covering approximately 50,000 hectares annually while maintaining risk aversion. This shift could boost GAS's annual sorghum production by two-thirds, exceeding 850,000 tons. The scheme's efficiency can be further enhanced through low-cost on-farm interventions. Currently, large irrigation plots that range from 420 to 756 hectares are irrigated with limited water distribution guidance, leading to uneven irrigation. As demonstrated through field trials, implementing internal longitudinal bunds and horizontal deflector bunds can increase adequately irrigated parts of the irrigation plots from 50% to 80% and thus nearly double the sorghum yield to 2 tons per hectare while reducing the irrigation duration from 30 days to a maximum of 17 days. Flow measurements in 2021 and 2022 confirmed that these changes sufficiently meet the sorghum crop's water requirements, even with a conservative 60% field application efficiency assumption. These insights and lessons from the GAS on enhancing agricultural resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change are relevant to flood-based livelihood systems globally.

Keywords: climate change, irrigation management and productivity, variable flood flows, water balance analysis

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Authors: Elhadi Nasr, Ibrahim Ramadan

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Biostratigraphical analyses of well sections from the Maragh Low in the Eastern Sirt Basin has allowed high resolution correlations to be undertaken. Full integration of this data with available palaeoenvironmental, lithological, gravity, seismic, aeromagnetic, igneous, radiometric and wireline log information and a geochemical analysis of source rock quality and distribution has led to a more detailed understanding of the geological and the structural history of this area. Pre Sirt Unconformity two superimposed rifting cycles have been identified. The oldest is represented by the Amal Group of sediments and is of Late Carboniferous, Kasimovian / Gzelian to Middle Triassic, Anisian age. Unconformably overlying is a younger rift cycle which is represented the Sarir Group of sediments and is of Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to Aptian in age. Overlying the Sirt Unconformity is the marine Late Cretaceous section. An assessment of pyrolysis results and a palynofacies analysis has allowed hydrocarbon source facies and quality to be determined. There are a number of hydrocarbon source rock horizons in the Maragh Low, these are sometimes vertically stacked and they are of fair to excellent quality. The oldest identified source rock is the Triassic Shale, this unit is unconformably overlain by sandstones belonging to the Sarir Group and conformably overlies a Triassic Siltstone unit. Palynological dating of the Triassic Shale unit indicates a Middle Triassic, Anisian age. The Triassic Shale is interpreted to have been deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. This particularly is evidenced by the dark, fine grained, organic rich nature of the sediment and is supported by palynofacies analysis and by the recovery of fish fossils. Geochemical analysis of the Triassic Shale indicates total organic carbon varying between 1.37 and 3.53. S2 pyrolysate yields vary between 2.15 mg/g and 6.61 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 156.91 and 278.91. The source quality of the Triassic Shale varies from being of fair to very good / rich. Linked to thermal maturity it is now a very good source for light oil and gas. It was once a very good to rich oil source. The Early Barremian Shale was also deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. Recovered palynomorphs indicate an Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to early Barremian age. The Early Barremian Shale is conformably underlain and overlain by sandstone units belonging to the Sarir Group of sediments which are also of Early Cretaceous age. Geochemical analysis of the Early Barremian Shale indicates that it is a good oil source and was originally very good. Total organic carbon varies between 3.59% and 7%. S2 varies between 6.30 mg/g and 10.39 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 148.4 and 175.5. A Late Barremian Shale unit of this age has also been identified in the central Maragh Low. Geochemical analyses indicate that total organic carbon varies between 1.05 and 2.38%, S2 pyrolysate between 1.6 and 5.34 mg/g and the hydrogen index between 152.4 and 224.4. It is a good oil source rock which is now mature. In addition to the non marine hydrocarbon source rocks pre Sirt Unconformity, three formations in the overlying Late Cretaceous section also provide hydrocarbon quality source rocks. Interbedded shales within the Rachmat Formation of Late Cretaceous, early Campanian age have total organic carbon ranging between, 0.7 and 1.47%, S2 pyrolysate varying between 1.37 and 4.00 mg/g and hydrogen indices varying between 195.7 and 272.1. The indication is that this unit would provide a fair gas source to a good oil source. Geochemical analyses of the overlying Tagrifet Limestone indicate that total organic carbon varies between 0.26% and 1.01%. S2 pyrolysate varies between 1.21 and 2.16 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 195.7 and 465.4. For the overlying Sirt Shale Formation of Late Cretaceous, late Campanian age, total organic carbon varies between 1.04% and 1.51%, S2 pyrolysate varies between 4.65 mg/g and 6.99 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 151 and 462.9. The study has proven that both the Sirt Shale Formation and the Tagrifet Limestone are good to very good and rich sources for oil in the Maragh Low. High resolution biostratigraphical interpretations have been integrated and calibrated with thermal maturity determinations (Vitrinite Reflectance (%Ro), Spore Colour Index (SCI) and Tmax (ºC) and the determined present day geothermal gradient of 25ºC / Km for the Maragh Low. Interpretation of generated basin modelling profiles allows a detailed prediction of timing of maturation development of these source horizons and leads to a determination of amounts of missing section at major unconformities. From the results the top of the oil window (0.72% Ro) is picked as high as 10,700’ and the base of the oil window (1.35% Ro) assuming a linear trend and by projection is picked as low as 18,000’ in the Maragh Low. For the Triassic Shale the early phase of oil generation was in the Late Palaeocene / Early to Middle Eocene and the main phase of oil generation was in the Middle to Late Eocene. The Early Barremian Shale reached the main phase of oil generation in the Early Oligocene with late generation being reached in the Middle Miocene. For the Rakb Group section (Rachmat Formation, Tagrifet Limestone and Sirt Shale Formation) the early phase of oil generation started in the Late Eocene with the main phase of generation being between the Early Oligocene and the Early Miocene. From studying maturity profiles and from regional considerations it can be predicted that up to 500’ of sediment may have been deposited and eroded by the Sirt Unconformity in the central Maragh Low while up to 2000’ of sediment may have been deposited and then eroded to the south of the trough.

Keywords: Geochemical analysis of the source rocks from wells in Eastern Sirt Basin.

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