Search results for: mode choice models

Authors: Gayathri Sadanala, Shibam Pokhrel, Owen Murphy

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In the ever-evolving landscape of education, Virtual Reality (VR) environments offer a promising avenue for enhancing student engagement and learning experiences. However, understanding and predicting student behavior within these immersive settings remain challenging tasks. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the predictive modeling of student behavior in VR using machine learning techniques. We introduce a rich data set capturing student interactions, movements, and progress within a VR orientation program. The dataset is divided into training and testing sets, allowing us to develop and evaluate predictive models for various aspects of student behavior, including engagement levels, task completion, and performance. Our machine learning approach leverages a combination of feature engineering and model selection to reveal hidden patterns in the data. We employ regression and classification models to predict student outcomes, and the results showcase promising accuracy in forecasting behavior within VR environments. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical implications of our predictive models for personalized VR-based learning experiences and early intervention strategies. By uncovering the intricate relationship between student behavior and VR interactions, we provide valuable insights for educators, designers, and developers seeking to optimize virtual learning environments.

Keywords: interaction, machine learning, predictive modeling, virtual reality

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Authors: Jerome D. Donovan

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The pandemic has resulted in a dramatic re-consideration of the reliance on international student fees to support university models in Australia. A key resulting initiative for the Australian Federal Government has been shifting the way universities consider their research model, emphasising the importance of commercialising research. This study specifically examines this shift from the perspective of a university spin-off, examining how university support structures and incubation models have assisted in the translation of fundamental research into a high-growth university spin-off. A focused case study approach is adopted in this study, using an auto-ethnographic research method to document the experiences and insights drawn from being a co-founder in a university spin-off in a time where research commercialisation has emerged as a central focus in Australian universities.

Keywords: research commercialisation, spin-offs, university incubation, entrepreneurship

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Authors: Wang Mimi, Jiang Changjun, Liu Guanjun, Fang Xianwen

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Loop structure often appears in the business process modeling, analyzing the consistency of corresponding workflow net models containing loop structure is a problem, the existing behavior consistency methods cannot analyze effectively the process models with the loop structure. In the paper, by analyzing five kinds of behavior relations of transitions, a three-dimensional figure and two-dimensional behavior relation matrix are proposed. Based on this, analysis method of behavior consistency of business process based on Petri net branching processes is proposed. Finally, an example is given out, which shows the method is effective.

Keywords: workflow net, behavior consistency measures, loop, branching process

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Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

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The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: crack, critical flow, leak, roughness

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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Authors: Sibylle Tellenbach, Julie Haddock-Millar, Francis Bidault

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The aim of this research is to understand the extent to which hybrid working models have influenced employee engagement in the Swiss financial sector. The context for this research is the transition out of the pandemic and the changes that have occurred between 2020 and 2023. Since the pandemic, many financial services companies have had to rethink their working model for office-based employees, as this group of employees has been able to experience a new way of working and, thus, greater freedom and flexibility. For a large number of companies, it was a huge change to shift from the traditional office-based to a new hybrid working model. A heightened focus on employee engagement has become a necessity in order to understand and respond to the challenges presented by the shift in a working model. This new way of working, partly office-based and partly virtual, has led to ambiguities about the impact on the engagement of hybrid teams. Therefore, the research question is: How hybrid working models have influenced employee engagement to what extent? The methodological approach is a narrative inquiry with four similar functional teams within four Swiss financial companies. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with managers from middle management and their individual team members. The findings will demonstrate whether this shift in the working model influenced individual team members’ engagement and to what extent. The contribution of this research is two-fold. First, the research makes a theoretical contribution, presenting evidence of the impact of hybrid working on individual team members’ engagement in a specific sector and context, enhancing current knowledge on the challenges in working model transition. Second, this research will make a practice-based contribution, recommending ways to enhance the engagement of hybrid teams in a specific context. These recommendations may be applied in wider sectors and teams.

Keywords: employee engagement, hybrid teams, hybrid working models, Swiss financial sector, team engagement

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Authors: Mara Aparecida De Castilho Lopes. Maria Eliza Mattosinho Bernardes

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The education of deaf individuals in Brazil is grounded in the bilingual approach, which presupposes Brazilian Sign Language (Libras) as the first language for these students. In this perspective, Portuguese should be taught as a second language in its written form, ensuring that deaf students also have access to various academic subjects in sign language. Brazilian legislation (Federal Decree No. 5626 of 2005) mandates the teaching of Brazilian Sign Language in university teacher training programs, but there is no pre-established minimum workload. As a result, there is a significant disparity in the teaching and quality of teacher education across the Brazilian territory. Added to this fact is the general lack of awareness within society regarding the linguistic status of Libras, leading to a shortage of competent teachers for its use and instruction, particularly in higher education. Recently, Federal Law No. 14191 of 2021 established bilingual education for the deaf as a mode of instruction, indicating the need for adjustments in teacher training within higher education teacher preparation programs. Given this context, the objective of the present study was to analyze the teaching proposals for Brazilian Sign Language for students in teacher training programs at public universities in Brazil, presenting alternatives to overcome the current models and academic pathways of teaching and learning. In addition to analyzing Brazilian teaching models, an analysis of a continuing education model for teachers in a French institution was also conducted - considering the historical Franco-Brazilian path of deaf education in Brazil. The analysis of the current teacher training model for deaf education in Brazil revealed that initial exposure to sign language and its linguistic structure is not sufficient to provide future teachers with opportunities to reflect on bilingual teaching methods and practices, as seen in other definitions of bilingualism - bilingual education for proficient listeners in two oral languages. As a result, a training proposal was developed for an experimental interdisciplinary course, integrating the curriculum of an initial and continuing teacher training program alongside the Alfredo Bossi Chair at the University of São Paulo. This proposal is structured into three disciplines, which constitute consecutive moments in teacher education: Fundamental Aspects of Brazilian Sign Language, Bilingual Teaching Methodology, and Teaching Investigation Project - interdisciplinary engagement in the field of deafness. The last offered discipline represents an interdisciplinary supervised internship proposal, considering the multi-professional context that constitutes deaf education within a bilingual approach. In interdisciplinary work within the field of deafness, dialogue between teachers and other professionals who work with deaf students from different perspectives - teachers, speech therapists, and sign language interpreters - is frequently necessary. Through alternative avenues, these actions aim to direct the linguistic development of deaf students within their learning processes. Based on the innovative curriculum proposal described here, the intention is to contribute to the enhancement of teacher education in Brazil, with the goal of ensuring bilingual education for deaf students.

Keywords: bilingual education, teacher training, historical-cultural approach, interdisciplinary education, inclusive education

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Authors: Ismail Aslantas

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Value-Added Models (VAMs), the statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of teachers and schools based on student achievement growth, has attracted decision-makers’ and researchers’ attention over the last decades. As a result of this attention, many studies have conducted in recent years to discuss these statistical models from different aspects. This research focused on the importance of conceptual variables in VAM estimations; therefor, this research was undertaken to examine the extent to which value-added effectiveness estimates for teachers can be affected by using context predictions. Using longitudinal data over three years from the international school context, value-added teacher effectiveness was estimated by ordinary least-square value-added models, and the effectiveness of the teachers was examined. The longitudinal dataset in this study consisted of three major sources: students’ attainment scores up to three years and their characteristics, teacher background information, and school characteristics. A total of 1,027 teachers and their 35,355 students who were in eighth grade were examined for understanding the impact of model specifications on the value-added teacher effectiveness evaluation. Models were created using selection methods that adding a predictor on each step, then removing it and adding another one on a subsequent step and evaluating changes in model fit was checked by reviewing changes in R² values. Cohen’s effect size statistics were also employed in order to find out the degree of the relationship between teacher characteristics and their effectiveness. Overall, the results indicated that prior attainment score is the most powerful predictor of the current attainment score. 47.1 percent of the variation in grade 8 math score can be explained by the prior attainment score in grade 7. The research findings raise issues to be considered in VAM implementations for teacher evaluations and make suggestions to researchers and practitioners.

Keywords: model specification, teacher effectiveness, teacher performance evaluation, value-added model

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Authors: Ahmad AlAbdullah, Ali AlQallaf, Mahdi Hussain, Mohammed AlAttar, Salman Ashknani, Magdy Helal

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We study the effectiveness of the parking service provided at Kuwaiti commercial malls and explore potential problems and feasible improvements. Commercial malls are important to Kuwaitis as the entertainment and shopping centers due to the lack of other alternatives. The difficulty and relatively long times wasted in finding a parking spot at the mall are real annoyances. We applied queuing analysis to one of the major malls that offer paid-parking (1040 parking spots) in addition to free parking. Patrons of the mall usually complained of the traffic jams and delays at entering the paid parking (average delay to park exceeds 15 min for about 62% of the patrons, while average time spent in the mall is about 2.6 hours). However, the analysis showed acceptable service levels at the check-in gates of the parking garage. Detailed review of the vehicle movement at the gateways indicated that arriving and departing cars both had to share parts of the gateway to the garage, which caused the traffic jams and delays. A simple comparison we made indicated that the largest commercial mall in Kuwait does not suffer such parking issues, while other smaller, yet important malls do, including the one we studied. It was suggested that well-designed inlets and outlets of that gigantic mall permitted smooth parking despite being totally free and mall is the first choice for most people for entertainment and shopping. A simulation model is being developed for further analysis and verification. Simulation can overcome the mathematical difficulty in using non-Poisson queuing models. The simulation model is used to explore potential changes to the parking garage entrance layout. And with the inclusion of the drivers’ behavior inside the parking, effectiveness indicators can be derived to address the economic feasibility of extending the parking capacity and increasing service levels. Outcomes of the study are planned to be generalized as appropriate to other commercial malls in Kuwait

Keywords: commercial malls, parking service, queuing analysis, simulation modeling

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Authors: Alisha Khanal, Gokhan Saygili

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It is commonly observed that aftershocks follow the mainshock. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and typically there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock–aftershock sequence. Usually, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding displacement as a function of seismic loading parameters, ground motion parameters, and site parameters but these models do not include the aftershocks. The seismic risks associated with the post-mainshock slopes ('damaged slopes') subjected to aftershocks is significant. This paper extends the empirical sliding displacement models for flexible slopes subjected to earthquake mainshock-aftershock sequences (a multi hazard approach). A dataset was developed using 144 pairs of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock sequences using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) database. The results reveal that the combination of mainshock and aftershock increases the seismic demand on slopes relative to the mainshock alone; thus, seismic risks are underestimated if aftershocks are neglected.

Keywords: seismic slope stability, mainshock, aftershock, landslide, earthquake, flexible slopes

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Authors: Yuliya Radanova, Agnė Tvaronavičienė

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With the growing trend for mandating parties of family conflicts to out-of-court processes, the adopted statutory regulations often remain silent on the way the voice of the child is integrated into the procedure. Convention on the Rights of the Child (Art. 12) clearly states the obligation to assure to the child who can form his or her own views the right to express those views freely in all matters affecting him. This article seeks to explore the way children participate in the mandatory mediation schemes applicable to family disputes in the European Union. A review of scientific literature and empirical data has been conducted on those EU Member States that coerce parties to family mediation to establish that different models of practice are deployed, and there is a lack of synchronicity on how children’s role in mediation is viewed. Child-inclusive mediation processes are deemed to produce sustainable results over time but necessitate professional qualifications and skills for the purpose of mediators to accommodate that such discussions are aligned with the best interest of the child. However, there is no unanimous guidance, standards or protocols on the peculiar characteristics and manner through which children are involved in mediation. Herewith, it is suggested that the lack of such rigorous approaches and coherence in an ever-changing mediation setting transitioning towards mandatory mediation models jeopardizes the importance of children’s voices in the process. Thus, it is suggested that there is a need to consider the adoption of uniform guidelines on the specific role children have in mediation, particularly in its mandatory models.

Keywords: family mediation, child involvement, mandatory mediation, child-inclusive, child-focused

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Authors: Zainab Mutlaq Ibrahim, Mohamed Bader-El-Den, Mihaela Cocea

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Students' textual feedback can hold unique patterns and useful information about learning process, it can hold information about advantages and disadvantages of teaching methods, assessment components, facilities, and other aspects of teaching. The results of analysing such a feedback can form a key point for institutions’ decision makers to advance and update their systems accordingly. This paper proposes a data mining framework for analysing end of unit general textual feedback using part of speech feature (PoS) with four machine learning algorithms: support vector machines, decision tree, random forest, and naive bays. The proposed framework has two tasks: first, to use the above algorithms to build an optimal model that automatically classifies the whole data set into two subsets, one subset is tailored to assessment practices (assessment related), and the other one is the non-assessment related data. Second task to use the same algorithms to build an optimal model for whole data set, and the new data subsets to automatically detect their sentiment. The significance of this paper is to compare the performance of the above four algorithms using part of speech feature to the performance of the same algorithms using n-grams feature. The paper follows Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDDM) framework to construct the classification and sentiment analysis models, which is understanding the assessment domain, cleaning and pre-processing the data set, selecting and running the data mining algorithm, interpreting mined patterns, and consolidating the discovered knowledge. The results of this paper experiments show that both models which used both features performed very well regarding first task. But regarding the second task, models that used part of speech feature has underperformed in comparison with models that used unigrams and bigrams.

Keywords: assessment, part of speech, sentiment analysis, student feedback

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Authors: Rafal Bryk, Holger Schmidt, Thomas Mull, Ingo Ganzmann, Oliver Herbst

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Prediction of the two-phase water mixture level during fast depressurization of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) resulting from an accident scenario is an important issue from the view point of the reactor safety. Since the level swell may influence the behavior of some passive safety systems, it has been recognized that an assumption which at the beginning may be considered as a conservative one, not necessary leads to a conservative result. This paper discusses outcomes obtained during simulations of the water dynamics and heat transfer during sudden depressurization of a vessel filled up to a certain level with liquid water under saturation conditions and with the rest of the vessel occupied by saturated steam. In case of the pressure decrease e.g. due to the main steam line break, the liquid water evaporates abruptly, being a reason thereby, of strong transients in the vessel. These transients and the sudden emergence of void in the region occupied at the beginning by liquid, cause elevation of the two-phase mixture. In this work, several models calculating the water collapse and swell levels are presented and validated against experimental data. Each of the models uses different approach to calculate void fraction. The object-oriented models were developed with the Modelica modelling language and the OpenModelica environment. The models represent the RPV of the Integral Test Facility Karlstein (INKA) – a dedicated test rig for simulation of KERENA – a new Boiling Water Reactor design of Framatome. The models are based on dynamic mass and energy equations. They are divided into several dynamic volumes in each of which, the fluid may be single-phase liquid, steam or a two-phase mixture. The heat transfer between the wall of the vessel and the fluid is taken into account. Additional heat flow rate may be applied to the first volume of the vessel in order to simulate the decay heat of the reactor core in a similar manner as it is simulated at INKA. The comparison of the simulations results against the reference data shows a good agreement.

Keywords: boiling water reactor, level swell, Modelica, RPV depressurization, thermal-hydraulics

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Authors: Matthew Armitt

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The revolutionary school of architectural teaching – VKhUTEAMAS (1923-1926) was a new approach for a new society bringing architectural education to the masses and masses to the growing industrial production. The school's pedagogical contribution of the 1920s made it an important school of the modernist movement, engaging pedagogy as a mode of experimentation. The teachers and students saw design education not just as a process of knowledge transfer but as a vehicle for design innovation developing an approach without precedent. This process of teaching and learning served as a vehicle for venturing into the unknown through a discipline of architectural teaching called “Space” developed by the Soviet architect Nikolai Ladovskii (1881-1941). The creation of “Space” was paramount not only for its innovative pedagogy but also as an experimental laboratory for developing new architectural language. This paper discusses whether the historical teaching of “Space” can function in the construction of the modern teaching identity today to promote value, richness, quality, and diversity inherent in architectural design education. The history of “Space” teaching remains unknown within academic circles and separate from the current architectural teaching debate. Using VKhUTEMAS and the teaching of “Space” as a pedagogical lens and drawing upon research carried out in the Russian Federation, America, Canada, Germany, and the UK, this paper discusses how historically different models of teaching and learning can intersect through examining historical based educational research by exploring different design studio initiatives; pedagogical methodologies; teaching and learning theories and problem-based projects. There are strong arguments and desire for pedagogical change and this paper will promote new historical and educational research to widen the current academic debate by exposing new approaches to architectural teaching today.

Keywords: VKhUTEMAS, discipline space, modernist pedagogy, teaching identity

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Authors: Fangyuan Shao, Wei Liu, Deli Gao

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Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bits have occupied a large market of unconventional oil and gas drilling. The application of PDC bits benefits from the efficient rock breaking of PDC cutters. In response to increasingly complex formations, many shaped cutters have been invited, but many of them have not been solved by the mechanism of rock breaking. In this paper, two kinds of PDC cutters: a new axe-shaped (NAS) cutter and cylindrical cutter (benchmark) were studied by laboratory experiments. NAS cutter is obtained by optimizing two sides of axe-shaped cutter with curved surfaces. All the cutters were put on a vertical turret lathe (VTL) in the laboratory for cutting tests. According to the cutting distance, the VTL tests can be divided into two modes: single-turn rotary cutting and continuous cutting. The cutting depth of cutting (DOC) was set at 1.0 mm and 2.0 mm in the former mode. The later mode includes a dry VTL test for thermal stability and a wet VTL test for wear resistance. Load cell and 3D optical profiler were used to obtain the value of cutting forces and wear area, respectively. Based on the findings of the single-turn rotary cutting VTL tests, the performance of A NAS cutter was better than the benchmark cutter on elastoplastic material cutting. The cutting forces (normal forces, tangential force, and radial force) and special mechanical energy (MSE) of a NAS cutter were lower than that of the benchmark cutter under the same condition. It meant that a NAS cutter was more efficient on elastoplastic material breaking. However, the wear resistance of a new axe-shaped cutter was higher than that of a benchmark cutter. The results of the dry VTL test showed that the thermal stability of a NAS cutter was higher than that of a benchmark cutter. The cutting efficiency can be improved by optimizing the geometric structure of the PDC cutter. The change of thermal stability may be caused by the decrease of the contact area between cutter and rock at given DOC. The conclusions of this paper can be used as an important reference for PDC cutters designers.

Keywords: axe-shaped cutter, PDC cutter, rotary cutting test, vertical turret lathe

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Authors: Aishwarya Ravindra Fursule, Shruti Kshirsagar

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In the intersection of artificial intelligence and human-centered computing, this paper delves into speech emotion recognition (SER). It presents a comparative analysis of machine learning models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, ensemble classifiers, and random forests, applied to SER. The research employs four datasets: Crema D, SAVEE, TESS, and RAVDESS. It focuses on extracting salient audio signal features like Zero Crossing Rate (ZCR), Chroma_stft, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC), root mean square (RMS) value, and MelSpectogram. These features are used to train and evaluate the models’ ability to recognize eight types of emotions from speech: happy, sad, neutral, angry, calm, disgust, fear, and surprise. Among the models, the Random Forest algorithm demonstrated superior performance, achieving approximately 79% accuracy. This suggests its suitability for SER within the parameters of this study. The research contributes to SER by showcasing the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms and feature extraction techniques. The findings hold promise for the development of more precise emotion recognition systems in the future. This abstract provides a succinct overview of the paper’s content, methods, and results.

Keywords: comparison, ML classifiers, KNN, decision tree, SVM, random forest, logistic regression, ensemble classifiers

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for calculating the utility of intertemporal prospects. According to this model, the value assigned to an outcome is the smaller the greater the distance between the moment in which the choice is made and the instant in which the outcome is perceived. This diminution determines the intertemporal preferences of the individual, the psychological significance of which is encapsulated in the discount rate. The classic model provides a discount rate of linear or exponential nature, necessary for temporally consistent preferences. Empirical evidence, however, has proven that individuals apply discount rates with a hyperbolic nature generating the phenomenon of intemporal inconsistency. What this means is that individuals have difficulty managing their money and future. Behavioral finance, which analyzes the investor's attitude through cognitive psychology, has made it possible to understand that beyond individual financial competence, there are factors that condition choices because they alter the decision-making process: behavioral bias. Since such cognitive biases are inevitable, to improve the quality of choices, research has focused on a personalized approach to strategies that combines behavioral finance with personality theory. From the considerations, it emerges the need to find a procedure to construct the personalized strategies that consider the personal characteristics of the client, such as age or gender, and his personality. The work is developed in three parts. The first part discusses and investigates the weight of the degree of impatience and impatience decrease in the anomalies of the discounted utility model. Specifically, the degree of decrease in impatience quantifies the impact that emotional factors generated by haste and financial market agitation have on decision making. The second part considers the relationship between decision making and personality theory. Specifically, four behavioral categories associated with four categories of behavioral investors are considered. This association allows us to interpret intertemporal choice as a combination of bias and temperament. The third part of the paper presents a method for constructing personalized strategies using Analytic Hierarchy Process. Briefly: the first level of the analytic hierarchy process considers the goal of the strategic plan; the second level considers the four temperaments; the third level compares the temperaments with the anomalies of the discounted utility model; and the fourth level contains the different possible alternatives to be selected. The weights of the hierarchy between level 2 and level 3 are constructed considering the degrees of decrease in impatience derived for each temperament with an experimental phase. The results obtained confirm the relationship between temperaments and anomalies through the degree of decrease in impatience and highlight that the actual impact of emotions in decision making. Moreover, it proposes an original and useful way to improve financial advice. Inclusion of additional levels in the Analytic Hierarchy Process can further improve strategic personalization.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, behavioral finance anomalies, intertemporal choice, personalized strategies

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Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior

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This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.

Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Aparna Soni

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The much-celebrated foretold story of Indian city engines driving the growth of India has been scrutinized to have serious consequences. A wide spectrum of scholarship has brought to light the un-equalizing effects and the need to adopt a rights-based approach to development planning in India. Notably, these concepts and discourses ubiquitously entail the study of land struggles in the making of Urban. In fact, the very progression of the primitive accumulation theory to accumulation by dispossession, followed by ‘dispossession without development,’ thereafter Development without dispossession and now as Dispossession by financialization noticeably the last three developing in a span of mere three decades, is evidence enough to trace the centrality and evolving role of land in the making of urban India. India, in the last decade, has seen its regional governments actively experimenting with alternative models of land assembly (Amaravati and Delhi land pooling models, the loudly advertised ones). These are publicized as a replacement to the presumably cost and time antagonistic, prone to litigation land acquisition act of 2013. It has been observed that most of the literature treats these models as a generic large bracket of land expropriation and do not, in particular, try to differentially analyse to granularly find a pattern in these alternatives. To cater to this gap, this research comparatively studies these alternative land, assembly models. It categorises them based on their basic architecture, spatial and sectoral application, and governance frameworks. It is found that these alternatives are ad-hoc and fragmented pieces of legislation. These are fit for profit models commodifying land to ease its access by the private sector for real estate led growth. The research augments the literature on the privatization of land use planning in India. Further, it attempts to discuss the increasing role a landowner is expected to play in the future and suggests a way forward to safeguard them from market risks. The study involves a thematic analysis of the policy elements contained in legislative/policy documents, notifications, office orders. The study also derives from the various widely circulated print media information. With the present field-visit limitations, the study relies on documents accessed open-source in the public domain.

Keywords: commodification, dispossession, land acquisition, landowner

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Authors: Jacob Hatherell, Jason Matthews, Arnaud Marmier

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Anvil Staking is a cold-forming process that is used in the assembly of plain spherical bearings into a rod-end housing. This process ensures that the bearing outer lip conforms to the chamfer in the matching rod end to produce a lightweight mechanical joint with sufficient strength to meet the pushout load requirement of the assembly. Finite Element (FE) analysis is being used extensively to predict the behaviour of metal flow in cold forming processes to support industrial manufacturing and product development. On-going research aims to validate FE models across a wide range of bearing and rod-end geometries by systematically isolating and understanding the uncertainties caused by variations in, material properties, load-dependent friction coefficients and strain rate sensitivity. The improved confidence in these models aims to eliminate the costly and time-consuming process of experimental trials in the introduction of new bearing designs. Previous literature has shown that friction coefficients do not remain constant during cold forming operations, however, the understanding of this phenomenon varies significantly and is rarely implemented in FE models. In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the normal contact pressure versus friction coefficient relationship is outlined using friction calibration charts generated via iterative FE models and ring compression tests. When compared to previous research, this new approach greatly improves the prediction of forming geometry and the forming load during the staking operation. This paper also aims to standardise the FE approach to modelling ring compression test and determining the friction calibration charts.

Keywords: anvil staking, finite element analysis, friction coefficient, spherical plain bearing, ring compression tests

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Authors: V. Nikolov, I. Koseva, R. Sole, F. Diaz

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Cr4+ doped oxide compounds are particularly preferred active media for solid-state lasers with a wide emission region from 1.1 to 1.6 µm. However, obtaining of single crystals of these compounds is often problematic. An alternative solution of this problem is replacing the single crystals with a transparent glassceramics containing the desired crystalline phase. Germanate compounds, especially Li2MgGeO4, Li2ZnGeO4 and Li2CaGeO4, are suitable for Cr4+ doped glass-ceramics because of their relatively low melting temperature and tetrahedral coordination of all ions. The latter ensures the presence of chromium in the 4+ valence. Cr doped Li2CaGeO4 g lass-ceramic was synthesized by thermal treating using glasses from the Li2O-CaO-GeO2-B2O3 system. Special investigations were carried out for optimizing the initial glasscomposition, as well as the thermal treated conditions. The synthesis of the glass ceramics was accompanied by appropriate characterization methods such as: XRD, TEM, EPR, UVVIS-NIR, emission spectra and time decay as main characteristic for the laser emission. From the systematic studies carried out in the four-component system Li2O-CaO-GeO2-B2O3 for establishing the Li2CaGeO4 crystallization area and suitable thermal treatment conditions, several main conclusions can be drawn: 1. The crystallization region of Li2CaGeO4 is relatively narrow, localized around the stoichiometric composition of the Li2CaGeO4 compound. 2. The presence of the glass former B2O3 strongly supports the obtaining of homogeneous glasses at relatively low temperatures, but it is also the reason for the crystallization of borate phases. 3. The crystallization of glasses during thermal treatment is related to the production of more than one phase and it is correct to speak for crystallization of a main phase and accompanying crystallization of other phases. The crystallization of a given phase is related to changing the composition of the residual glass and creating conditions for the crystallization of other phases. 4. The separate studies show that glass-ceramics with different crystallized phases in different quantitative ratios can be obtained from the same composition of glass playing by the thermal treatment conditions. In other words, the choice of temperature and time of thermal treatment of the glass is an extremely important condition, along with the optimization of the starting glass composition. As a result of the conducted research, an optimal composition of the starting glass and an optimal mode of thermal treatment were selected. Glass-ceramic with a main phase Li2CaGeO4 doped by Cr4+ was obtained. The obtained glass-ceramic possess very good properties containing up to 60 mass% of Li2CaGeO4, with an average size of nanoparticles of 20 nm and with transparency about 70 % relative to the transparency of the parent glass. The emission of the obtained glass-ceramics is in a wide range between 1050 and 1500 nm. The obtained results are the basis for further optimization of the glass-ceramic characteristics to obtain an effective laser-active medium with radiation in the 1.1-1.6 nm range.

Keywords: glass, glass-ceramics, multicomponent systems, NIR emission

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Authors: Keyi Wang

Abstract:

Similar to the touchscreen, hand gesture based human-computer interaction (HCI) is a technology that could allow people to perform a variety of tasks faster and more conveniently. This paper proposes a training method of an image-based hand gesture image and video clip recognition system using a CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) with a dataset. A dataset containing 6 hand gesture images is used to train a 2D CNN model. ~98% accuracy is achieved. Furthermore, a 3D CNN model is trained on a dataset containing 4 hand gesture video clips resulting in ~83% accuracy. It is demonstrated that a Cozmo robot loaded with pre-trained models is able to recognize static and dynamic hand gestures.

Keywords: deep learning, hand gesture recognition, computer vision, image processing

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Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira

Abstract:

This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.

Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML

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Authors: Girish Chandran, Milu Tigi

Abstract:

Brian O'Doherty's seminal essay, Inside the white Cube theorized and named the dominant mode of display and exhibition of Modern Art museums. Ever since the advent of Biennales and other site-specific public art projects we have seen a departure from the white cube mode of exhibition. The physicality, materiality and context within which an artwork is framed has a role in the production of meaning of public art. Equally, artworks contribute to the meaning and identity of a place. This to and fro relationship between the site and artwork and its influence on the sense of place and production of meaning is being explored in this paper in the context of Kochi Muziris Biennale (KMB). Known as the Peoples biennale with over 5 lakh visitors, it is India's first Biennale and its largest art exhibition of contemporary art. The paper employs place theory and contemporary curatorial theories to present the case. The KMB has an interesting mix of exhibition spaces which includes existing galleries and halls, site-specific projects in public spaces, infill developments and adaptive reuse of heritage and other unused architecture. The biennale was envisioned as an event connecting to the history, socio-political peculiarities of the cultural landscape of Kerala and more specifically Kochi. The paper explains the role of spatial elements in forming a curatorial narrative connected to the above mentioned ambitions.The site-specific nature of exhibition and its use of unused architecture helps in the formation of exhibition spaces unique in type and materiality. The paper argues how this helps in the creation of an 'archeology of the place'. The research elucidates how a composite nature of experience helps connect with the thematic ambitions of the Biennale and how it brings about an aesthetics distinct to KMB.

Keywords: public art, curatorial practice, architecture, place, contemporary art, site specificity

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Authors: Onur Karaman, Ceren Karaman

Abstract:

In this study, the adsorption of Methylene Blue (MB), a cationic dye, onto Orange Peel Derived Activated Carbon (OPAC) and chitosan(OPAC/Chitosan composite) composite (a low-cost absorbent) was carried out using a batch system. The composite was characterised using IR spectra, XRD, FESEM and Pore size studies. The effects of initial pH, adsorbent dose rate and initial dye concentration on the initial adsorption rate, capacity and dye removal efficiency were investigated. The Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption models were used to define the adsorption equilibrium of dye-adsorbent system mathematically and it was decided that the Langmuir model was more suitable to describe the adsorption equilibrium for the system. In addition, first order, second order and saturation type kinetic models were applied to kinetic data of adsorption and kinetic constants were calculated. It was concluded that the second order and the saturation type kinetic models defined the adsorption data more accurately. Finally, the evaluated thermodynamic parameters of adsorption show a spontaneous and exothermic behavior. Overall, this study indicates OPAC/Chitosan composite as an effective and low-cost adsorbent for the removal of MB dye from aqueous solutions.

Keywords: activated carbon, adsorption, chitosan, methylene blue, orange peel

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Authors: Harold Vásquez, Cesar Hernández, Ingrid Páez

Abstract:

This paper approach cognitive radio technic and applied pure proactive handoff Model to decrease interference between PU and SU and comparing it with reactive handoff model. Through the study and analysis of multivariate models SAW and TOPSIS join to 3 dynamic prediction techniques AR, MA ,and ARMA. To evaluate the best model is taken four metrics: number failed handoff, number handoff, number predictions, and number interference. The result presented the advantages using this type of pure proactive models to predict changes in the PU according to the selected channel and reduce interference. The model showed better performance was TOPSIS-MA, although TOPSIS-AR had a higher predictive ability this was not reflected in the interference reduction.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum handoff, decision making, time series, wireless networks

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Authors: A. Marolleau, F. Salaun, D. Dupont, H. Gidik, S. Ducept.

Abstract:

The goal of this study is to analyze the hydric behaviour of textiles which can impact significantly the comfort of the wearer. Indeed, fabrics can be adapted for different climate if hydric and thermal behaviors are known. In this study, fabrics are only submitted to hydric variations. Sorption and desorption isotherms obtained from the dynamic vapour sorption apparatus (DVS) are fitted with the parallel exponential kinetics (PEK), the Hailwood-Horrobin (HH) and the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) models. One of the major finding is the relationship existing between PEK and HH models. During slow and fast processes, the sorption of water molecules on the polymer can be in monolayer and multilayer form. According to the BET model, moisture regain, a physical property of textiles, show a linear correlation with the total amount of water taken in monolayer. This study provides potential information of the end uses of these fabrics according to the selected activity level.

Keywords: comfort, hydric properties, modelling, underwears

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Authors: Mengxiao Li, Johnson Zhang

Abstract:

Currently, topology optimization technique is widely used to define the layout design of structures that are presented as truss-like topologies. However, due to the difficulty in combining optimization technique with more realistic material models where their nonlinear properties should be considered, the achieved optimized topologies are commonly unable to apply straight towards the practical design problems. This study presented an optimization procedure of composite structures where different elastic stiffness, yield criteria, and hardening models are assumed for the candidate materials. From the results, it can be concluded that a more explicit modeling has the significant influence on the resulting topologies. Also, the isotropic or kinematic hardening is important for elastoplastic structural optimization design. The capability of the proposed optimization procedure is shown through several cases.

Keywords: topology optimization, material composition, nonlinear modeling, hardening rules

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Authors: Janet Modu, Jean-Francois Georgin, Laurent Briancon, Eric Antoinet

Abstract:

The current practice during the repowering phase of wind turbines is deconstruction of existing foundations and construction of new foundations to accept larger wind loads or once the foundations have reached the end of their service lives. The ongoing research project FUI25 FEDRE (Fondations d’Eoliennes Durables et REpowering) therefore serves to propose scalable wind turbine foundation designs to allow reuse of the existing foundations. To undertake this research, numerical models and laboratory-scale models are currently being utilized and implemented in the GEOMAS laboratory at INSA Lyon following instrumentation of a reference wind turbine situated in the Northern part of France. Sensors placed within both the foundation and the underlying soil monitor the evolution of stresses from the foundation’s early age to stresses during service. The results from the instrumentation form the basis of validation for both the laboratory and numerical works conducted throughout the project duration. The study currently focuses on the effect of coupled mechanisms (Thermal-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical) that induce stress during the early age of the reinforced concrete foundation, and scale factor considerations in the replication of the reference wind turbine foundation at laboratory-scale. Using THMC 3D models on COMSOL Multi-physics software, the numerical analysis performed on both the laboratory-scale and the full-scale foundations simulate the thermal deformation, hydration, shrinkage (desiccation and autogenous) and creep so as to predict the initial damage caused by internal processes during concrete setting and hardening. Results show a prominent effect of early age properties on the damage potential in full-scale wind turbine foundations. However, a prediction of the damage potential at laboratory scale shows significant differences in early age stresses in comparison to the full-scale model depending on the spatial position in the foundation. In addition to the well-known size effect phenomenon, these differences may contribute to inaccuracies encountered when predicting ultimate deformations of the on-site foundation using laboratory scale models.

Keywords: cement hydration, early age behavior, reinforced concrete, shrinkage, THMC 3D models, wind turbines

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