Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: Yuxin Wu, Yu-Shing Wang, Zitao Zhang

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A high-speed and time-lapse S-wave velocity measurement system has been built up for S-wave tomography in sand. This system is based on bender elements and applied to model pile tests in a tailor-made pressurized chamber to monitor the shear wave velocity distribution during pile installation in sand. Tactile pressure sensors are used parallel together with bender elements to monitor the stress changes during the tests. Strain gages are used to monitor the shaft resistance and toe resistance of pile. Since the shear wave velocity (Vs) is determined by the shear modulus of sand and the shaft resistance of pile is also influenced by the shear modulus of sand around the pile, the purposes of this study are to time-lapse monitor the S-wave velocity distribution change at a certain horizontal section during pile installation and to correlate the S-wave velocity distribution and shaft resistance of pile in sand.

Keywords: bender element, pile, shaft resistance, shear wave velocity, tomography

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Wajid Ali Khan

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Extensive experimentation and numerical investigation are performed to predict the machining-induced residual stresses in the end milling of AISI 1045 steel, and an optimization code has been developed using the particle swarm optimization technique. Experiments were conducted using a single factor at a time and design of experiments approach. Regression analysis was done, and a mathematical model of the cutting process was developed, thus predicting the machining-induced residual stress with reasonable accuracy. The mathematical model served as the objective function to be optimized using particle swarm optimization. The relationship between the different cutting parameters and the output variables, force, and residual stresses has been studied. The combined effect of the process parameters, speed, feed, and depth of cut was examined, and it is understood that 85% of the variation of these variables can be attributed to these machining parameters under research. A 3D finite element model is developed to predict the cutting forces and the machining-induced residual stresses in end milling operation. The results were validated experimentally and against the Johnson-cook model available in the literature.

Keywords: residual stresses, end milling, 1045 steel, optimization

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Authors: Mohammadali Abedini Sanigy, Jiangang Fei

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In this paper, a mathematical optimization model was developed to maximize the profit in a vegetable production planning problem. It serves as a decision support system that assists farmers in land allocation to crops and harvest scheduling decisions. The developed model can handle different rotation rules in two consecutive cycles of production, which is a common practice in organic production system. Moreover, different production methods of the same crop were considered in the model formulation. The main strength of the model is that it is not restricted to predetermined production periods, which makes the planning more flexible. The model is classified as a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and formulated in PYOMO -a Python package to formulate optimization models- and solved via Gurobi and CPLEX optimizer packages. The model was tested with secondary data from 'Australian vegetable growing farms', and the results were obtained and discussed with the computational test runs. The results show that the model can successfully provide reliable solutions for real size problems.

Keywords: crop rotation, harvesting, mathematical model formulation, vegetable production

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Lillie Dewan

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The study of complex dynamic systems has advanced through various scientific approaches with the help of computer modeling. The common design trends in aerospace system design can be applied to quadcopter design. A quadcopter is a nonlinear, under-actuated system with complex aerodynamics parameters and creates challenges that demand new, robust, and effective control approaches. The flight control stability can be improved by planning and tracking the trajectory and reducing the effect of sensors and the operational environment. This paper presents a modern design Simmechanics visual modeling approach for a mechanical model of a quadcopter with three degrees of freedom. The Simmechanics model, considering inertia, mass, and geometric properties of a dynamic system, produces multiple translation and rotation maneuvers. The proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controller is integrated with the Simmechanics model to follow a predefined quadcopter rotational trajectory for a fixed time interval. The results presented are satisfying. The simulation of the quadcopter control performed operations successfully.

Keywords: nonlinear system, quadcopter model, simscape modelling, proportional-integral-derivative controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

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Authors: H. Al-Hajeri

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The computation of the effectiveness of turbulence enhancement surface features, such as ribs as means of promoting mixing and hence heat transfer, has attracted the continued attention of the engineering community. In this study, the simulation of a three-dimensional cooling passage is carried out employing a number of turbulence models including Durbin model. The cooling passage consists of a square section duct whose upper and lower surfaces feature staggered cuboid ribs. The main objective of this paper is to provide comparisons of the performance of the v2-f model against other established turbulence models as implemented in the commercial CFD code Ansys Fluent. The present study demonstrates that the v2-f model can successfully capture the isothermal air flow phenomena in flow over obstacles.

Keywords: CFD, cooling passage, Durbin model, turbulence model

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Authors: Mequanint Birhan

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Modern urban environments present a dynamically growing field where, notwithstanding shared goals, several mutually conflicting interests frequently collide. However, it has a big impact on the city's socioeconomic standing, waiting lines and queues are common occurrences. This results in extremely long lines for both vehicles and people on incongruous routes, service coagulation, customer murmuring, unhappiness, complaints, and looking for other options sometimes illegally. The root cause of this is corruption, which leads to traffic jams, stopping, and packing vehicles beyond their safe carrying capacity, and violating the human rights and freedoms of passengers. This study focused on the optimizing time of passengers had to wait in public vehicle stations. This applied research employed both data gathering sources and mixed approaches, then 166 samples of key informants of transport station were taken by using the Slovin sampling formula. The length of time vehicles, including the drivers and auxiliary drivers ‘Weyala', had to wait was also studied. To maximize the service level at vehicle stations, a queuing model was subsequently devised ‘Menaharya’. Time, cost, and quality encompass performance, scope, and suitability for the intended purposes. The minimal response time for passengers and vehicles queuing to reach their final destination at the stations of the Tepi, Mizan, and Bonga towns was determined. A new bus station system was modeled and simulated by Arena simulation software in the chosen study area. 84% improvement on cost reduced by 56.25%, time 4hr to 1.5hr, quality, safety and designed load performance calculations employed. Stakeholders are asked to put the model into practice and monitor the results obtained.

Keywords: Arena 14 automatic rockwell, queue, transport services, vehicle stations

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Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

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This study is conducted to examine how opposing viewpoints related to COVID-19 were diffused on Twitter. To accomplish this, six datasets using two epidemiological models, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics), were analyzed. The six datasets were chosen because they represent opposing viewpoints on the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of the datasets contain anti-subject hashtags, while the other three contain pro-subject hashtags. The time frame for all datasets is three years, starting from January 2020 to December 2022. The findings revealed that while both models were effective in evaluating the propagation trends of these polarizing viewpoints, the SEIZ model was more accurate with a relatively lower error rate (6.7%) compared to the SIR model (17.3%). Additionally, the relative error for both models was lower for anti-subject hashtags compared to pro-subject hashtags. By leveraging epidemiological models, insights into the propagation trends of polarizing viewpoints on Twitter were gained. This study paves the way for the development of methods to prevent the spread of ideas that lack scientific evidence while promoting the dissemination of scientifically backed ideas.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, epidemiological model, seiz model, sir model, covid-19, twitter, social network analysis, social contagion

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Authors: Seulki Lee, Seoung Bum Kim

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Statistical process control (SPC) is a practical and effective method for quality control. The most important and widely used technique in SPC is a control chart. The main goal of a control chart is to detect any assignable changes that affect the quality output. Most conventional control charts, such as Hotelling’s T2 charts, are commonly based on the assumption that the quality characteristics follow a multivariate normal distribution. However, in modern complicated manufacturing systems, appropriate control chart techniques that can efficiently handle the nonnormal processes are required. To overcome the shortcomings of conventional control charts for nonnormal processes, several methods have been proposed to combine statistical learning algorithms and multivariate control charts. Statistical learning-based control charts, such as support vector data description (SVDD)-based charts, k-nearest neighbors-based charts, have proven their improved performance in nonnormal situations compared to that of the T2 chart. Beside the nonnormal property, time-varying operations are also quite common in real manufacturing fields because of various factors such as product and set-point changes, seasonal variations, catalyst degradation, and sensor drifting. However, traditional control charts cannot accommodate future condition changes of the process because they are formulated based on the data information recorded in the early stage of the process. In the present paper, we propose a SVDD algorithm-based control chart, which is capable of adaptively monitoring time-varying and nonnormal processes. We reformulated the SVDD algorithm into a time-adaptive SVDD algorithm by adding a weighting factor that reflects time-varying situations. Moreover, we defined the updating region for the efficient model-updating structure of the control chart. The proposed control chart simultaneously allows efficient model updates and timely detection of out-of-control signals. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed chart were demonstrated through experiments with the simulated data and the real data from the metal frame process in mobile device manufacturing.

Keywords: multivariate control chart, nonparametric method, support vector data description, time-varying process

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Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

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Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

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Authors: Peyman Sindareh Esfahani, Jeffery Kurt Pieper

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In this paper, the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) for discrete-time linear systems in linear fractional transformation form with structured uncertainty and norm-bounded disturbance is investigated. The problem of minimization of the cost function for MPC design is converted to minimization of the worst case of the cost function. Then, this problem is reduced to minimization of an upper bound of the cost function subject to a terminal inequality satisfying the l₂-norm of the closed loop system. The characteristic of the linear fractional transformation system is taken into account, and by using some mathematical tools, the robust predictive controller design problem is turned into a linear matrix inequality minimization problem. Afterwards, a formulation which includes an integrator to improve the performance of the proposed robust model predictive controller in steady state condition is studied. The validity of the approaches is illustrated through a robust control benchmark problem.

Keywords: linear fractional transformation, linear matrix inequality, robust model predictive control, state feedback control

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Authors: Bara' Al-Mistarehi

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Documentation and assessment of conservation state of an archaeological structure is a significant procedure in any management plan. However, it has always been a challenge to apply this with a low coast and safe methodology. It is also a time-demanding procedure. Therefore, a low cost, efficient methodology for documenting the state of a structure is needed. In the scope of this research, this paper will employ digital photogrammetry and laser scanner to one of highly significant structures in Germany, The Old Castle (German: Altes Schloss). The site is well known for its unique features. However, the castle suffers from serious deterioration threats because of the environmental conditions and the absence of continuous monitoring, maintenance and repair plans. Digital photogrammetry is a generally accepted technique for the collection of 3D representations of the environment. For this reason, this image-based technique has been extensively used to produce high quality 3D models of heritage sites and historical buildings for documentation and presentation purposes. Additionally, terrestrial laser scanners are used, which directly measure 3D surface coordinates based on the run-time of reflected light pulses. These systems feature high data acquisition rates, good accuracy and high spatial data density. Despite the potential of each single approach, in this research work maximum benefit is to be expected by a combination of data from both digital cameras and terrestrial laser scanners. Within the paper, the usage, application and advantages of the technique will be investigated in terms of building high realistic 3D textured model for some parts of the old castle. The model will be used as diagnosing tool of the conservation state of the castle and monitoring mean for future changes.

Keywords: Digital photogrammetry, Terrestrial laser scanners, 3D textured model, archaeological structure

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Authors: Jamal Abdi

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This paper is largely a response/critique of Samuel P. Huntington´s Clash of Civilizations thesis. The overriding argument is that Huntington´s thesis is characterized by failure to distinguish between ´groups´ and ´categories´. Multinational civilizations overcoming their internal collective action problems, which would enable them to pursue a unified strategy vis-à-vis the West, is a rather foundational assumption in his theory. Without assigning sufficient intellectual attention to the processes through which multinational civilizations may gain capacity for concerted action i.e. become a group, he contended that the post-cold-war world would be shaped in large measure by interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. Thus, failure in providing a convincing analysis of multi-national civilizations´ transition from categories to groups is a significant weakness in Huntington´s clash theory. It is also suggested that so-called Islamic terrorism and the war on terror is not to be taken as an expression of presence of clash between a Western and an Islamic civilization, as terrorist organizations would be superfluous in a world characterized by clash of civilizations. Consequences of multinational civilizations becoming a group are discussed in relation to contemporary Western superiority.

Keywords: categories, civilizations, clash, groups, groupness

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Authors: Yue Wang

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Five years passed since the newest English curriculum reform policy was published in China, hand-wringing spread among teachers who accused that this is another 'Wearing New Shoes to Walk the Old Road' policy. This paper provides a thoroughly philosophical policy analysis of serious efforts that had been made to support this reform and reveals the hindrances that bridled the reform to yield the desired effect. Blame could be easily put on teachers for their insufficient pedagogical content knowledge, conservative resistance, and the handicaps of large class sizes and limited teaching times, and so on. However, the underlying causes for this implementation failure are the interrelated factors in the NCEE-centred education system, such as the reluctant from students, the lack of school and education bureau support, and insufficient teacher training. A further discussion of 2017 to 2020’s NCEE reform on English prompt new possibilities for the authentic pedagogical approach reform in secondary English classes. In all, the pedagogical approach reform at the secondary level is heading towards a brighter future with the initiation of new NCEE reform.

Keywords: English curriculum, failure, NCEE, new possibilities, pedagogical, policy analysis, reform

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: David Rafetseder, Walter Bauer, Florian Poltschak, Wolfgang Amrhein

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A flat double-stator linear induction machine (DSLIM) with a short squirrel-cage mover is designed for high thrust force at moderate speed < 5m/s. The performance and motor parameters are determined on the basis of a 2D time-transient simulation with the finite element (FE) software Maxwell 2015. Design guidelines and transformation rules for space vector theory of the LIM are presented. Resulting thrust calculated by flux and current vectors is compared with the FE results showing good coherence and reduced noise. The parameters of the equivalent circuit model are obtained.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, finite element model, linear induction motor, space vector theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 566

Authors: Amani A. Saad, Ahmed A. El-Farag, El-Sayed A. Helali

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Cloud computing is an important and promising field in the recent decade. Cloud computing allows sharing resources, services and information among the people of the whole world. Although the advantages of using clouds are great, but there are many risks in a cloud. The data security is the most important and critical problem of cloud computing. In this research a new security model for cloud computing is proposed for ensuring secure communication system, hiding information from other users and saving the user's times. In this proposed model Blowfish encryption algorithm is used for exchanging information or data, and SHA-2 cryptographic hash algorithm is used for data integrity. For user authentication process a user-name and password is used, the password uses SHA-2 for one way encryption. The proposed system shows an improvement of the processing time of uploading and downloading files on the cloud in secure form.

Keywords: cloud Ccomputing, data security, SAAS, PAAS, IAAS, Blowfish

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand

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Authors: Maba Boniface Matadi

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This paper analyses the model of Malaria endemic from the point of view of the group theoretic approach. The study identified new independent variables that lead to the transformation of the nonlinear model. Furthermore, corresponding determining equations were constructed, and new symmetries were found. As a result, the findings of the study demonstrate of the integrability of the model to present an invariant solution for the Malaria model.

Keywords: group theory, lie symmetry, invariant solutions, malaria

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Authors: L. Rakesh, T. Y. Heblekar

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This study entails the development and optimization of a mathematical model for a floating drum biogas reactor from first principles using thermal and empirical considerations. The model was derived on the basis of mass conservation, lumped mass heat transfer formulations and empirical biogas formation laws. The treatment leads to a system of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations whose solution mapped four-time independent controllable parameters to five output variables which adequately serve to describe the reactor performance. These equations were solved numerically using fourth order Runge-Kutta method for a range of input parameter values. Using the data so obtained an Artificial Neural Network with a single hidden layer was trained using Levenberg-Marquardt Damped Least Squares (DLS) algorithm. This network was then fine-tuned for optimal mapping by varying hidden layer size. This fast forward model was then employed as a health score generator in the Bacterial Foraging Optimization code. The optimal operating state of the simplified Biogas reactor was thus obtained.

Keywords: biogas, floating drum reactor, neural network model, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Ghazal Zahed, Leila Tabatabaee, Amirhossein Hosseini, Somaye Fatahi

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Functional retentive overflow incontinence (Retentive FI) is the most common cause of fecal soiling in children. Affected patients may have more problems with their parents and peer group, self-esteem issues, and more psychiatric comorbidities than the general population. Therapeutic interventions for Retentive FI and related problems and comorbid conditions are needed at the same time. Based on the clinical experiences, patients with retentive FI and comorbid psychiatric disorders, were accelerated in their treatment of fecal incontinence when they were being treated with Risperidone for their psychiatric comorbidities, therefore this study was conducted to evaluate the effect of Risperidone in the treatment of Retentive FI in children and adolescents. In this double-blind randomized clinical trial, 136 patients aged 4-18 years eligible for the study were randomly divided into two groups receiving Risperidone and placebo. About half of these patients had newly diagnosed psychiatric disorders and were drug naïve, this was considered in their division. In addition to polyethylene glycol, all the participants received family counseling and education for withholding behaviors and related behavioral interventions, and nonpharmacological interventions for psychiatric comorbidities. A significant correlation was observed between the duration of treatment with risperidone and the presence of psychiatric comorbidities (P <0.001) for diurnal fecal incontinence. Based on our findings in this study, Risperidone, used commonly for psychiatric disorders in children and adolescents, may be useful in the treatment of retentive fecal incontinence in the presence of psychiatric comorbidities, and along with other interventions.

Keywords: Retentive Fecal Incontinence, Risperidone, Treatment, Pediatric, Encopresis, Atypical Antipsychotics, Fecal Soiling

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Jerry Q. Cheng

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Currently, in analyzing large-scale recurrent event data, there are many challenges such as memory limitations, unscalable computing time, etc. In this research, a divide-and-conquer method is proposed using parametric frailty models. Specifically, the data is randomly divided into many subsets, and the maximum likelihood estimator from each individual data set is obtained. Then a weighted method is proposed to combine these individual estimators as the final estimator. It is shown that this divide-and-conquer estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the estimator based on the full data. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of this proposed method. This approach is applied to a large real dataset of repeated heart failure hospitalizations.

Keywords: big data analytics, divide-and-conquer, recurrent event data, statistical computing

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Authors: Ernest Nweke, Enkhtuya Bavuudorj

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The Mongolia Stock Exchange (MSE) serves as a vehicle for executing the privatization policy of Mongolian Government as it transitioned from socialist to free market economy. It was also the intention of the Government to develop the investment and securities market through its establishment and to further boost the ailing Mongolian economy. This paper focuses on the contributions of the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) to the industrial and economic development of Mongolia via Corporate fund mobilization for listed companies in Mongolia. A study of this nature is imperative as economic development in Mongolia has been accelerated by corporate investments. The key purpose of the research was to critically analyze the operations of the MSE to ascertain the extent to which the objectives for which it was established have been accomplished and to assess its contributions to industrial and economic development of Mongolia. In achieving this, secondary data on the activities of the MSE; its market capitalization over the years were collected and analyzed vis-à-vis the figures for Mongolia’s macro-economic data for the same time period to determine whether the progressive increase in market capitalization of the MSE has positively impacted on Mongolia’s economic growth. Regression analysis package was utilized in dissecting the data. It was proven that the Mongolian Stock Exchange has contributed positively and significantly to Mongolia’s economic development though not yet to the desired level. Against the findings of this research, recommendations were made to address, the problems facing the MSE and to enhance its performance and ultimately its contributions to industrial and economic development of the Mongolian nation.

Keywords: Corporate Fund Mobilization, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), market capitalization, purchasing power, stock exchange

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Authors: Javier López

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This Paper presents the evaluation model designed for the virtual education branch of The “Universidad Manuela Beltrán, Bogotá-Colombia”. This was the result of a research, developed as a case study, which had three stages: Document review, observation, and a perception survey for teachers. In the present model, the evaluation is a cross-cutting issue to the educational process. Therefore, it consists in a group of actions and guidelines which lead to analyze the student’s learning process from the admission, during the academic training, and to the graduation. This model contributes to the evaluation components which might interest other educational institutions or might offer methodological guidance to consolidate an own model

Keywords: model, evaluation, virtual education, learning process

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Authors: A. C. Kumbharkhane

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Time domain dielectric relaxation microwave spectroscopy (TDRMS) is a term used to describe a technique of observing the time dependant response of a sample after application of time dependant electromagnetic field. A TDRMS probes the interaction of a macroscopic sample with a time dependent electrical field. The resulting complex permittivity spectrum, characterizes amplitude (voltage) and time scale of the charge-density fluctuations within the sample. These fluctuations may arise from the reorientation of the permanent dipole moments of individual molecules or from the rotation of dipolar moieties in flexible molecules, like polymers. The time scale of these fluctuations depends on the sample and its relative relaxation mechanism. Relaxation times range from some picoseconds in low viscosity liquids to hours in glasses, Therefore the TDRS technique covers an extensive dynamical process. The corresponding frequencies range from 10-4 Hz to 1012 Hz. This inherent ability to monitor the cooperative motion of molecular ensemble distinguishes dielectric relaxation from methods like NMR or Raman spectroscopy, which yield information on the motions of individual molecules. Recently, we have developed and established the TDR technique in laboratory that provides information regarding dielectric permittivity in the frequency range 10 MHz to 30 GHz. The TDR method involves the generation of step pulse with rise time of 20 pico-seconds in a coaxial line system and monitoring the change in pulse shape after reflection from the sample placed at the end of the coaxial line. There is a great interest to study the dielectric relaxation behaviour in liquid systems to understand the role of hydrogen bond in liquid system. The intermolecular interaction through hydrogen bonds in molecular liquids results in peculiar dynamical properties. The dynamics of hydrogen-bonded liquids have been studied. The theoretical model to explain the experimental results will be discussed.

Keywords: microwave, time domain reflectometry (TDR), dielectric measurement, relaxation time

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Authors: C. Akhras

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Change is the life blood of business. Dynamic factors inspire change yet may act as barriers, influencing the company’s position in the market and challenging its organizational mission and culture. Today, the business context has globalized with business enterprises in the North and South joint in mergers and the East forges a strategic alliance with the West. Moreover, given that very little remains stable in certain industries, national business goals in the millennial marketplaces might be rapid, accelerated, and differentiated growth while distinctive competitive advantage might mark new qualitative excellence in others. In a new age culture marked by change, organizations, leaders, and followers are impacted; indigenous business leaders seem to have a very important role to play in change management. This case study was carried out on 178 business employees employed in local industry to evaluate perceptions of indigenous business leadership, workplace assessment, and organizational change management in the Middle East and North Africa. Three research questions were posed: (1) In your work context, do you think business leaders are essentially changing agents? (2) In your work context, is workplace change more effective in business leaders perceived as a hierarchical change agent rather than those perceived as an empowering change agent? (3) In your work context, is workplace change more efficient in business leaders perceived as a hierarchical change agent rather than those perceived as an empowering change agent? The results of the study and its limitations imposed by time and space indicate that more comprehensive research is required in this area.

Keywords: catalyst, change management, business enterprise, workplace assessment

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Authors: Ali Raouli, Amin Chegenizadeh, Hamid Nikraz

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The Perth metropolitan area and its surrounding regions have been expanding rapidly in recent decades and it is expected that this growth will continue in the years to come. With this rapid growth and the resulting increase in population, consideration should be given to strategic planning and modelling for the future expansion of Perth. The accurate estimation of projected traffic volumes has always been a major concern for the transport modelers and planners. Development of a reliable strategic transport model depends significantly on the inputs data into the model and the calibrated parameters of the model to reflect the existing situation. Trip distribution is the second step in four-step modelling (FSM) which is complex due to its behavioral nature. Gravity model is the most common method for trip distribution. The spatial separation between the Origin and Destination (OD) zones will be reflected in gravity model by applying deterrence functions which provide an opportunity to include people’s behavior in choosing their destinations based on distance, time and cost of their journeys. Deterrence functions play an important role for distribution of the trips within a study area and would simulate the trip distances and therefore should be calibrated for any particular strategic transport model to correctly reflect the trip behavior within the modelling area. This paper aims to review the most common deterrence functions and propose a calibrated deterrence function for work trips within the Perth Metropolitan Area based on the information obtained from the latest available Household data and Perth and Region Travel Survey (PARTS) data. As part of this study, a four-step transport model using EMME software has been developed for Perth Metropolitan Area to assist with the analysis and findings.

Keywords: deterrence function, four-step modelling, origin destination, transport model

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Ketan N. Bajad, Manisha V. Waghmare

Abstract:

Earthquakes are the biggest threat to the civil engineering structures as every year it cost billions of dollars and thousands of deaths, around the world. There are various experimental techniques such as pseudo-dynamic tests – nonlinear structural dynamic technique, real time pseudo dynamic test and shaking table test method that can be employed to verify the seismic performance of structures. Shake table is a device that is used for shaking structural models or building components which are mounted on it. It is a device that simulates a seismic event using existing seismic data and nearly truly reproducing earthquake inputs. This paper deals with the use of shaking table test method to check the response of structure subjected to earthquake. The various types of shake table are vertical shake table, horizontal shake table, servo hydraulic shake table and servo electric shake table. The goal of this experiment is to perform seismic analysis of a civil engineering structure with the help of 3 degree of freedom (i.e. in X Y Z direction) shake table. Three (3) DOF shaking table is a useful experimental apparatus as it imitates a real time desired acceleration vibration signal for evaluating and assessing the seismic performance of structure. This study proceeds with the proper designing and erection of 3 DOF shake table by trial and error method. The table is designed to have a capacity up to 981 Newton. Further, to study the seismic response of a steel industrial building, a proportionately scaled down model is fabricated and tested on the shake table. The accelerometer is mounted on the model, which is used for recording the data. The experimental results obtained are further validated with the results obtained from software. It is found that model can be used to determine how the structure behaves in response to an applied earthquake motion, but the model cannot be used for direct numerical conclusions (such as of stiffness, deflection, etc.) as many uncertainties involved while scaling a small-scale model. The model shows modal forms and gives the rough deflection values. The experimental results demonstrate shake table as the most effective and the best of all methods available for seismic assessment of structure.

Keywords: accelerometer, three degree of freedom shake table, seismic analysis, steel industrial shed

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

Abstract:

In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: I. Inthanongsone, C. Drebenstedt, J. C. Bongaerts, P. Sontamino

Abstract:

The major concern in evaluating the value of mining projects related to the deficiency of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method. This method does not take uncertainties into account and, hence it does not allow for an economic assessment of managerial flexibility and operational adaptability, which are increasingly determining long-term corporate success. Such an assessment can be performed with the real options valuation (ROV) approach, since it allows for a comparative evaluation of unforeseen uncertainties in a project life cycle. This paper presents an economic evaluation model for open pit mining projects based on real options valuation approach. Uncertainties in the model are caused by metal prices and cost uncertainties and the system dynamics (SD) modeling method is used to structure and solve the real options model. The model is applied to a case study. It can be shown that that managerial flexibility reacting to uncertainties may create additional value to a mining project in comparison to the outcomes of a DCF method. One important insight for management dealing with uncertainty is seen in choosing the optimal time to exercise strategic options.

Keywords: DCF methods, ROV approach, system dynamics modeling methods, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 501