Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: O. B. Iskender, K. V. Ling, V. Dubanchet, L. Simonini

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This paper discusses the recent advances and future prospects of spacecraft position and attitude control using Model Predictive Control (MPC). First, the challenges of the space missions are summarized, in particular, taking into account the errors, uncertainties, and constraints imposed by the mission, spacecraft and, onboard processing capabilities. The summary of space mission errors and uncertainties provided in categories; initial condition errors, unmodeled disturbances, sensor, and actuator errors. These previous constraints are classified into two categories: physical and geometric constraints. Last, real-time implementation capability is discussed regarding the required computation time and the impact of sensor and actuator errors based on the Hardware-In-The-Loop (HIL) experiments. The rationales behind the scenarios’ are also presented in the scope of space applications as formation flying, attitude control, rendezvous and docking, rover steering, and precision landing. The objectives of these missions are explained, and the generic constrained MPC problem formulations are summarized. Three key design elements used in MPC design: the prediction model, the constraints formulation and the objective cost function are discussed. The prediction models can be linear time invariant or time varying depending on the geometry of the orbit, whether it is circular or elliptic. The constraints can be given as linear inequalities for input or output constraints, which can be written in the same form. Moreover, the recent convexification techniques for the non-convex geometrical constraints (i.e., plume impingement, Field-of-View (FOV)) are presented in detail. Next, different objectives are provided in a mathematical framework and explained accordingly. Thirdly, because MPC implementation relies on finding in real-time the solution to constrained optimization problems, computational aspects are also examined. In particular, high-speed implementation capabilities and HIL challenges are presented towards representative space avionics. This covers an analysis of future space processors as well as the requirements of sensors and actuators on the HIL experiments outputs. The HIL tests are investigated for kinematic and dynamic tests where robotic arms and floating robots are used respectively. Eventually, the proposed algorithms and experimental setups are introduced and compared with the authors' previous work and future plans. The paper concludes with a conjecture that MPC paradigm is a promising framework at the crossroads of space applications while could be further advanced based on the challenges mentioned throughout the paper and the unaddressed gap.

Keywords: convex optimization, model predictive control, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy

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Authors: Changtong Wang, Lingyun Wei

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The combination of auctions and supply chains is of great significance in improving the supply chain management system and enhancing the efficiency of economic and social operations. To address the gap in research on supply chain strategies under the auction mechanism, a model is developed for the 1-N auction model in a complete information environment, and it is concluded that the two-part contract auction model for retailers in this model can achieve supply chain coordination. The model is validated by substituting the model into the scenario of a fresh-cut flower industry flower auction in exchange for arithmetic examples to further prove the validity of the conclusions.

Keywords: auction mechanism, supply chain coordination strategy, fresh cut flowers industry, supply chain management

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Authors: B. T. Chew, S. N. Kazi, A. Amiri

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This paper presents an adaptive thermal comfort model study in the tropical country of Malaysia. A number of researchers have been interested in applying the adaptive thermal comfort model to different climates throughout the world, but so far no study has been performed in Malaysia. For the use as a thermal comfort model, which better applies to hot and humid climates, the adaptive thermal comfort model was developed as part of this research by using the collected results from a large field study in six lecture halls with 178 students. The relationship between the operative temperature and behavioral adaptations was determined. In the developed adaptive model, the acceptable indoor neutral temperatures lay within the range of 23.9-26.0 oC, with outdoor temperatures ranging between 27.0–34.6oC. The most comfortable temperature for students in the lecture hall was 25.7 oC.

Keywords: hot and humid, lecture halls, neutral temperature, adaptive thermal comfort model

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Authors: U. Narumitbowonkul, P. Keangin, P. Rattanadecho

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Both numerical and experimental investigation of the temperature distribution and electric field in a natural rubber glove (NRG) during microwave heating are studied. A three-dimensional model of NRG and microwave oven are considered in this work. The influences of position, heating time and rotation angle of NRG on temperature distribution and electric field are presented in details. The coupled equations of electromagnetic wave propagation and heat transfer are solved using the finite element method (FEM). The numerical model is validated with an experimental study at a frequency of 2.45 GHz. The results show that the numerical results closely match the experimental results. Furthermore, it is found that the temperature distribution and electric field increases with increasing heating time. The hot spot zone appears in NRG at the tip of middle finger while the maximum temperature occurs in case of rotation angle of NRG = 60 degree. This investigation provides the essential aspects for a fundamental understanding of heat transport of NRG using microwave energy in industry.

Keywords: electric field, finite element method, microwave energy, natural rubber glove

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Authors: Aleksandra Zieminska-Stolarska, Ireneusz Zbicinski

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Introduction: The objective of the present work was to develop and validate a 3D CFD numerical model for simulating flow through 17 kilometers long dam reservoir of a complex bathymetry. In contrast to flowing waters, dam reservoirs were not emphasized in the early years of water quality modeling, as this issue has never been the major focus of urban development. Starting in the 1970s, however, it was recognized that natural and man-made lakes are equal, if not more important than estuaries and rivers from a recreational standpoint. The Sulejow Reservoir (Central Poland) was selected as the study area as representative of many lowland dam reservoirs and due availability of a large database of the ecological, hydrological and morphological parameters of the lake. Method: 3D, 2-phase and 1-phase CFD models were analysed to determine hydrodynamics in the Sulejow Reservoir. Development of 3D, 2-phase CFD model of flow requires a construction of mesh with millions of elements and overcome serious convergence problems. As 1-phase CFD model of flow in relation to 2-phase CFD model excludes from the simulations the dynamics of waves only, which should not change significantly water flow pattern for the case of lowland, dam reservoirs. In 1-phase CFD model, the phases (water-air) are separated by a plate which allows calculations of one phase (water) flow only. As the wind affects velocity of flow, to take into account the effect of the wind on hydrodynamics in 1-phase CFD model, the plate must move with speed and direction equal to the speed and direction of the upper water layer. To determine the velocity at which the plate will move on the water surface and interacts with the underlying layers of water and apply this value in 1-phase CFD model, the 2D, 2-phase model was elaborated. Result: Model was verified on the basis of the extensive flow measurements (StreamPro ADCP, USA). Excellent agreement (an average error less than 10%) between computed and measured velocity profiles was found. As a result of work, the following main conclusions can be presented: •The results indicate that the flow field in the Sulejow Reservoir is transient in nature, with swirl flows in the lower part of the lake. Recirculating zones, with the size of even half kilometer, may increase water retention time in this region •The results of simulations confirm the pronounced effect of the wind on the development of the water circulation zones in the reservoir which might affect the accumulation of nutrients in the epilimnion layer and result e.g. in the algae bloom. Conclusion: The resulting model is accurate and the methodology develop in the frame of this work can be applied to all types of storage reservoir configurations, characteristics, and hydrodynamics conditions. Large recirculating zones in the lake which increase water retention time and might affect the accumulation of nutrients were detected. Accurate CFD model of hydrodynamics in large water body could help in the development of forecast of water quality, especially in terms of eutrophication and water management of the big water bodies.

Keywords: CFD, mathematical modelling, dam reservoirs, hydrodynamics

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Authors: Xiang Zhang, David Rey, S. Travis Waller

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Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is a widely used traffic assignment model in transportation planning, which is regarded more advanced than Deterministic User Equilibrium (DUE) model. However, a problem exists that the performance of the SUE model depends on its error term parameter. The objective of this paper is to propose a systematic method of determining the appropriate error term parameter value for the SUE model. First, the significance of the parameter is explored through a numerical example. Second, the parameter calibration method is developed based on the Logit-based route choice model. The calibration process is realized through multiple nonlinear regression, using sequential quadratic programming combined with least square method. Finally, case analysis is conducted to demonstrate the application of the calibration process and validate the better performance of the SUE model calibrated by the proposed method compared to the SUE models under other parameter values and the DUE model.

Keywords: parameter calibration, sequential quadratic programming, stochastic user equilibrium, traffic assignment, transportation planning

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Authors: Adriano Z. Zambom, Preethi Ravikumar

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One of the biggest challenges in nonparametric regression is the curse of dimensionality. Additive models are known to overcome this problem by estimating only the individual additive effects of each covariate. However, if the model is misspecified, the accuracy of the estimator compared to the fully nonparametric one is unknown. In this work the efficiency of completely nonparametric regression estimators such as the Loess is compared to the estimators that assume additivity in several situations, including additive and non-additive regression scenarios. The comparison is done by computing the oracle mean square error of the estimators with regards to the true nonparametric regression function. Then, a backward elimination selection procedure based on the Akaike Information Criteria is proposed, which is computed from either the additive or the nonparametric model. Simulations show that if the additive model is misspecified, the percentage of time it fails to select important variables can be higher than that of the fully nonparametric approach. A dimension reduction step is included when nonparametric estimator cannot be computed due to the curse of dimensionality. Finally, the Boston housing dataset is analyzed using the proposed backward elimination procedure and the selected variables are identified.

Keywords: additive model, nonparametric regression, variable selection, Akaike Information Criteria

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Authors: Jin-Wei Liang, Hung-Yi Chen, Lung Lin

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In this paper feedforward controller is designed to eliminate nonlinear hysteresis behaviors of a piezoelectric stack actuator (PSA) driven system. The control design is based on inverse Prandtl-Ishlinskii (P-I) hysteresis model identified using particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. Based on the identified P-I model, both the inverse P-I hysteresis model and feedforward controller can be determined. Experimental results obtained using the inverse P-I feedforward control are compared with their counterparts using hysteresis estimates obtained from the identified Bouc-Wen model. Effectiveness of the proposed feedforward control scheme is demonstrated. To improve control performance feedback compensation using traditional PID scheme is adopted to integrate with the feedforward controller.

Keywords: the Bouc-Wen hysteresis model, particle swarm optimization, Prandtl-Ishlinskii model, automation engineering

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Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support the operational decision of the Emergency Medical Service (EMS) regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). In the literature, this problem is also known as “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of the first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies are mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a request. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the transport time and release the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs, considering information relating to the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case-mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to evaluate different hospital selection policies. Therefore, the next steps of the research consisted of the development of a general simulation architecture, its implementation in the AnyLogic software and its validation on a realistic dataset. The hospital selection policy that produced the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, which is based on a retrospective estimate of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, which is based on a predictive estimate of the TTP determined with a constantly updated Winters model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP as a hospital selection policy raises several benefits. It allows to significantly reduce service throughput times in the ED with a minimum increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case-mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms of TTP estimation than a retrospective approach but entails a more difficult application. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, emergency medical services, forecast model, hospital selection

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Authors: Linjie Zhang, Baifen Ren, Xi Zhang, Genwang Liu

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Ship detection is of great significance for both military and civilian applications. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with all-day, all-weather, ultra-long-range characteristics, has been used widely. In view of the low time resolution of low orbit SAR and the needs for high time resolution SAR data, GEO (Geosynchronous orbit) SAR is getting more and more attention. Since GEO SAR has short revisiting period and large coverage area, it is expected to be well utilized in marine ship targets monitoring. However, the height of the orbit increases the time of integration by almost two orders of magnitude. For moving marine vessels, the utility and efficacy of GEO SAR are still not sure. This paper attempts to find the feasibility of GEO SAR by giving a GEO SAR simulator of moving ships. This presented GEO SAR simulator is a kind of geometrical-based radar imaging simulator, which focus on geometrical quality rather than high radiometric. Inputs of this simulator are 3D ship model (.obj format, produced by most 3D design software, such as 3D Max), ship's velocity, and the parameters of satellite orbit and SAR platform. Its outputs are simulated GEO SAR raw signal data and SAR image. This simulating process is accomplished by the following four steps. (1) Reading 3D model, including the ship rotations (pitch, yaw, and roll) and velocity (speed and direction) parameters, extract information of those little primitives (triangles) which is visible from the SAR platform. (2) Computing the radar scattering from the ship with physical optics (PO) method. In this step, the vessel is sliced into many little rectangles primitives along the azimuth. The radiometric calculation of each primitive is carried out separately. Since this simulator only focuses on the complex structure of ships, only single-bounce reflection and double-bounce reflection are considered. (3) Generating the raw data with GEO SAR signal modeling. Since the normal ‘stop and go’ model is not available for GEO SAR, the range model should be reconsidered. (4) At last, generating GEO SAR image with improved Range Doppler method. Numerical simulation of fishing boat and cargo ship will be given. GEO SAR images of different posture, velocity, satellite orbit, and SAR platform will be simulated. By analyzing these simulated results, the effectiveness of GEO SAR for the detection of marine moving vessels is evaluated.

Keywords: GEO SAR, radar, simulation, ship

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Authors: Seung-Yeon Kim

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The Ising model, consisting magnetic spins, is the simplest system showing phase transitions and critical phenomena at finite temperatures. The Ising model has played a central role in our understanding of phase transitions and critical phenomena. Also, the Ising model explains the gas-liquid phase transitions accurately. However, the Ising model in a nonzero magnetic field has been one of the most intriguing and outstanding unsolved problems. We study analytically the partition function zeros in the complex magnetic-field plane and the Yang-Lee edge singularity of the infinite-range Ising model in an external magnetic field. In addition, we compare the Yang-Lee edge singularity of the infinite-range Ising model with that of the square-lattice Ising model in an external magnetic field.

Keywords: Ising ferromagnet, magnetic field, partition function zeros, Yang-Lee edge singularity

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Authors: David Polcari, Samuel C. Perry, Loredano Pollegioni, Matthias Geissler, Janine Mauzeroll

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ᴅ-serine acts as an endogenous co-agonist for N-methyl-ᴅ-aspartate receptors in neuronal synapses. This makes it a key component in the development and function of a healthy brain, especially given its role in several neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. Despite such clear research motivations, the primary site and mechanism of ᴅ-serine release is still currently unclear. For this reason, we are developing a biosensor for the detection of ᴅ-serine utilizing a microelectrode in combination with a ᴅ-amino acid oxidase enzyme, which produces stoichiometric quantities of hydrogen peroxide in response to ᴅ-serine. For the fabrication of a biosensor with good selectivity, we use a permselective poly(meta-phenylenediamine) film to ensure only the target molecule is reacted, according to the size exclusion principle. In this work, we investigated the effect of the electrodeposition conditions used on the biosensor’s response time and selectivity. Careful optimization of the fabrication process allowed for enhanced biosensor response time. This allowed for the real time sensing of ᴅ-serine in a bulk solution, and also provided in means to map the efflux of ᴅ-serine in real time. This was done using scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM) with the optimized biosensor to measure localized release of ᴅ-serine from an agar filled glass capillary sealed in an epoxy puck, which acted as a model system. The SECM area scan simultaneously provided information regarding the rate of ᴅ-serine flux from the model substrate, as well as the size of the substrate itself. This SECM methodology, which provides high spatial and temporal resolution, could be useful to investigate the primary site and mechanism of ᴅ-serine release in other biological samples.

Keywords: ᴅ-serine, enzymatic biosensor, microelectrode, scanning electrochemical microscopy

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Blair D. Macdonald

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After nearly one hundred years of its origin, foundational quantum mechanics remains one of the greatest unexplained mysteries in physicists today. Within this time, chaos theory and its geometry, the fractal, has developed. In this paper, the propagation behaviour with an iteration of a simple fractal, the Koch Snowflake, was described and analysed. From an arbitrary observation point within the fractal set, the fractal propagates forward by oscillation—the focus of this study and retrospectively behind by exponential growth from a point beginning. It propagates a potentially infinite exponential oscillating sinusoidal wave of discrete triangle bits sharing many characteristics of light and quantum entities. The model's wave speed is potentially constant, offering insights into the perception and a direction of time where, to an observer, when travelling at the frontier of propagation, time may slow to a stop. In isolation, the fractal is a superposition of component bits where position and scale present a problem of location. In reality, this problem is experienced within fractal landscapes or fields where 'position' is only 'known' by the addition of information or markers. The quantum' measurement problem', 'uncertainty principle,' 'entanglement,' and the classical-quantum interface are addressed; these are a problem of scale invariance associated with isolated fractality. Dual forward and retrospective perspectives of the fractal model offer the opportunity for unification between quantum mechanics and cosmological mathematics, observations, and conjectures. Quantum and cosmological problems may be different aspects of the one fractal geometry.

Keywords: measurement problem, observer, entanglement, unification

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Authors: G. Vishnu, T. V. Bharat

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Rainfall plays a major role in the stability of natural slopes in tropical and subtropical regions. These slopes usually have high slope angles and are stable during the dry season. The critical rainfall intensity that might trigger a landslide may not be the highest rainfall. In addition to geological discontinuities and anthropogenic factors, water content, suction, and hydraulic conductivity also play a role. A thorough geotechnical investigation with the principles of unsaturated soil mechanics is required to predict the failures in these cases. The study discusses three landslide events that had occurred in residual hills of Guwahati, India. Rainfall data analysis, history image analysis, land use, and slope maps of the region were analyzed and discussed. The landslide occurred on June (24, 26, and 28) 2020, on the respective sites, but the highest rainfall was on June (6 and 17) 2020. The factors that lead to the landslide occurrence is the combination of critical events initiated with rainfall, causing a reduction in suction. The sites consist of a mixture of rocks and soil. The slope failure occurs due to the saturation of the soil layer leading to loss of soil strength resulting in the flow of the entire soil rock mass. The land-use change, construction activities, other human and natural activities that lead to faster disintegration of rock mass may accelerate the landslide events. Landslides in these slopes are inevitable, and the development of an early warning system (EWS) to save human lives and resources is a feasible way. The actual time of failure of a slope can be better predicted by considering all these factors rather than depending solely on the rainfall intensities. An effective EWS is required with less false alarms in these regions by proper instrumentation of slope and appropriate climatic downscaling.

Keywords: early warning system, historic image analysis, slope instrumentation, unsaturated soil mechanics

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Tomas Menard

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The synthesis of output-feedback control law has been investigated by many researchers since the last century. While many results exist for the case of Linear Time Invariant systems whose measurements are continuously available, nowadays, control laws are usually implemented on micro-controller, then the measurements are discrete-time by nature. This fact has to be taken into account explicitly in order to obtain a satisfactory behavior of the closed-loop system. One considers here a general class of systems corresponding to an observability normal form and which is subject to uncertainties in the dynamics and sampling of the output. Indeed, in practice, the modeling of the system is never perfect, this results in unknown uncertainties in the dynamics of the model. We propose here an output feedback algorithm which is based on a linear state feedback and a continuous-discrete time observer. The main feature of the proposed control law is that only discrete-time measurements of the output are needed. Furthermore, it is formally proven that the state of the closed loop system exponentially converges toward the origin despite the unknown uncertainties. Finally, the performances of this control scheme are illustrated with simulations.

Keywords: dynamical systems, output feedback control law, sampling, uncertain systems

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Authors: Teklu Urgessa, Wookjae Maeng, Joong Seek Lee

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Application of five implementations of three data mining classification techniques was experimented for extracting important insights from tourism data. The aim was to find out the best performing algorithm among the compared ones for tourism knowledge discovery. Knowledge discovery process from data was used as a process model. 10-fold cross validation method is used for testing purpose. Various data preprocessing activities were performed to get the final dataset for model building. Classification models of the selected algorithms were built with different scenarios on the preprocessed dataset. The outperformed algorithm tourism dataset was Random Forest (76%) before applying information gain based attribute selection and J48 (C4.5) (75%) after selection of top relevant attributes to the class (target) attribute. In terms of time for model building, attribute selection improves the efficiency of all algorithms. Artificial Neural Network (multilayer perceptron) showed the highest improvement (90%). The rules extracted from the decision tree model are presented, which showed intricate, non-trivial knowledge/insight that would otherwise not be discovered by simple statistical analysis with mediocre accuracy of the machine using classification algorithms.

Keywords: classification algorithms, data mining, knowledge discovery, tourism

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Authors: Sven Gehrke, Johannes Ruhland

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Data is the oil of our time, without them progress would come to a hold [1]. On the other hand, the mistrust of data mining is increasing [2]. The paper at hand shows different aspects of the concept of trust and describes the information asymmetry of the typical stakeholders of a data mining project using the CRISP-DM phase model. Based on the identified influencing factors in relation to trust, problematic aspects of the current approach are verified using various interviews with the stakeholders. The results of the interviews confirm the theoretically identified weak points of the phase model with regard to trust and show potential research areas.

Keywords: trust, data mining, CRISP DM, stakeholder management

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Authors: Kumbharkhane Ashok

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The time domain dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (TDRS) probes the interaction of a macroscopic sample with a time-dependent electrical field. The resulting complex permittivity spectrum, characterizes amplitude (voltage) and time scale of the charge-density fluctuations within the sample. These fluctuations may arise from the reorientation of the permanent dipole moments of individual molecules or from the rotation of dipolar moieties in flexible molecules, like polymers. The time scale of these fluctuations depends on the sample and its relative relaxation mechanism. Relaxation times range from some picoseconds in low viscosity liquids to hours in glasses, Therefore the DRS technique covers an extensive dynamical process, its corresponding frequency range from 10-4 Hz to 1012 Hz. This inherent ability to monitor the cooperative motion of molecular ensemble distinguishes dielectric relaxation from methods like NMR or Raman spectroscopy which yield information on the motions of individual molecules. An experimental set up for Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) technique from 10 MHz to 30 GHz has been developed for the aqueous solutions. This technique has been very simple and covers a wide band of frequencies in the single measurement. Dielectric Relaxation Spectroscopy is especially sensitive to intermolecular interactions. The complex permittivity spectra of aqueous solutions have been fitted using Cole-Davidson (CD) model to determine static dielectric constants and relaxation times for entire concentrations. The heterogeneous molecular interactions in aqueous solutions have been discussed through Kirkwood correlation factor and excess properties.

Keywords: liquid, aqueous solutions, time domain reflectometry

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Authors: Nader A. Al Theeb, Zaid Abu Manneh, Ibrahim Al-Qadi

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Traveling salesman problem (TSP) is a combinatorial integer optimization problem that asks "What is the optimal route for a vehicle to traverse in order to deliver requests to a given set of customers?”. It is widely used by the package carrier companies’ distribution centers. The main goal of applying the TSP in courier organizations is to minimize the time that it takes for the courier in each trip to deliver or pick up the shipments during a day. In this article, an optimization model is constructed to create a new TSP variant to optimize the routing in a courier organization with a consideration of congestion in Amman, the capital of Jordan. Real data were collected by different methods and analyzed. Then, concert technology - CPLEX was used to solve the proposed model for some random generated data instances and for the real collected data. At the end, results have shown a great improvement in time compared with the current trip times, and an economic study was conducted afterwards to figure out the impact of using such models.

Keywords: travel salesman problem, congestions, pick-up, integer programming, package carriers, service engineering

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Authors: Ayhan Ince

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In this paper, an analytical simplified method for calculating elasto-plastic stresses strains of notched bodies subject to non-proportional loading paths is discussed. The method was based on the Neuber notch correction, which relates the incremental elastic and elastic-plastic strain energy densities at the notch root and the material constitutive relationship. The validity of the method was presented by comparing computed results of the proposed model against finite element numerical data of notched shaft. The comparison showed that the model estimated notch-root elasto-plastic stresses strains with good accuracy using linear-elastic stresses. The prosed model provides more efficient and simple analysis method preferable to expensive experimental component tests and more complex and time consuming incremental non-linear FE analysis. The model is particularly suitable to perform fatigue life and fatigue damage estimates of notched components subjected to non-proportional loading paths.

Keywords: elasto-plastic, stress-strain, notch analysis, nonprortional loadings, cyclic plasticity, fatigue

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Authors: Omar Qaftan

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Earthquakes can cause tremendous loss of human life and can result in severe damage to a several of civil engineering structures especially the tall buildings. The response of a multistory structure subjected to earthquake loading is a complex task, and it requires to be studied by physical and numerical modelling. For many circumstances, the scale models on shaking table may be a more economical option than the similar full-scale tests. A shaking table apparatus is a powerful tool that offers a possibility of understanding the actual behaviour of structural systems under earthquake loading. It is required to use a set of scaling relations to predict the behaviour of the full-scale structure. Selecting the scale factors is the most important steps in the simulation of the prototype into the scaled model. In this paper, the principles of scaling modelling procedure are explained in details, and the simulation of scaled multi-storey concrete structure for dynamic studies is investigated. A procedure for a complete dynamic simulation analysis is investigated experimentally and numerically with a scale factor of 1/50. The frequency domain accounting and lateral displacement for both numerical and experimental scaled models are determined. The procedure allows accounting for the actual dynamic behave of actual size porotype structure and scaled model. The procedure is adapted to determine the effects of the tall multi-storey structure on a raft foundation. Four generated accelerograms were used as inputs for the time history motions which are in complying with EC8. The output results of experimental works expressed regarding displacements and accelerations are compared with those obtained from a conventional fixed-base numerical model. Four-time history was applied in both experimental and numerical models, and they concluded that the experimental has an acceptable output accuracy in compare with the numerical model output. Therefore this modelling methodology is valid and qualified for different shaking table experiments tests.

Keywords: structure, raft, soil, interaction

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Authors: Lounes Aouane, Omar Bouledroua

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Sonatrach uses 24,000 kilometers of pipelines to transport gas and oil. Over time, these pipes run the risk of bursting due to corrosion inside and/or outside the pipeline. For this reason, a check must be made with the help of an equipped scraper. This intelligent tool provides a detailed picture of all errors in the pipeline. Based on the ERF values, these wear defects are divided into two parts: acceptable defect and unacceptable defect. The objective of this work is to conduct a comparative study of the different methods of calculating the marginal pressure found in the literature (DNV RP F-101, SHELL, P-CORRC, NETTO and CSA Z662). This comparison will be made from a database of 329 burst tests published in the literature. Finally, we will propose a new approach based on the finite element method using the commercial software ANSYS.

Keywords: hydrogen embrittlement, pipelines, hydrogen, transient flow, cyclic pressure, fatigue crack growth

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Authors: K. Khanafer

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The aim of this investigation was to validate the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model of type B aortic dissection with our experimental results from a bench-top-model. Another objective was to study the relationship between the size of a septectomy that increases the outflow of the false lumen and its effect on the values of the differential of pressure between true lumen and false lumen. FSI analysis based on Galerkin’s formulation was used in this investigation to study flow pattern and hemodynamics within a flexible type B aortic dissection model using boundary conditions from our experimental data. The numerical results of our model were verified against the experimental data for various tear size and location. Thus, CFD tools have a potential role in evaluating different scenarios and aortic dissection configurations.

Keywords: aortic dissection, fluid-structure interaction, in vitro model, numerical

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Authors: Rassoli Aisa, Abrishami Movahhed Arezu, Faturaee Nasser, Seddighi Amir Saeed, Shafigh Mohammad

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Cardiovascular diseases are one of the most common causes of mortality in developed countries. Coronary artery abnormalities and carotid artery stenosis, also known as silent death, are among these diseases. One of the treatment methods for these diseases is to create a deviatory pathway to conduct blood into the heart through a bypass surgery. The saphenous vein is usually used in this surgery to create the deviatory pathway. Unfortunately, a re-surgery will be necessary after some years due to ignoring the disagreement of mechanical properties of graft tissue and/or applied prostheses with those of host tissue. The objective of the present study is to clarify the viscoelastic behavior of human saphenous tissue. The stress relaxation tests in circumferential and longitudinal direction were done in this vein by exerting 20% and 50% strains. Considering the stress relaxation curves obtained from stress relaxation tests and the coefficients of the standard solid model, it was demonstrated that the saphenous vein has a non-linear viscoelastic behavior. Thereafter, the fitting with Fung’s quasilinear viscoelastic (QLV) model was performed based on stress relaxation time curves. Finally, the coefficients of Fung’s QLV model, which models the behavior of saphenous tissue very well, were presented.

Keywords: Viscoelastic behavior, stress relaxation test, uniaxial tensile test, Fung’s quasilinear viscoelastic (QLV) model, strain rate

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Elif Kalkanli, Constantinos Soutis

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The use of textile preform in the advanced fields including aerospace, automotive and marine has exponentially grown in recent years. These preforms offer excellent advantages such as being lightweight and low-cost, and also, their suitability for creating different fiber architectures with different materials whilst improved mechanical properties in certain aspects. In this study, a novel honeycomb core is developed by a 3Dweaving process. The assembly of the layers is achieved thanks to innovative weaving design. Polyester yarn is selected for the 3D woven honeycomb core (3DWHC). The core is used to manufacture a sandwich panel with 2x2 twill glass fiber composite face sheets. These 3DWHC sandwich panels will be tested in three-point bending. The in-plane and out-of-plane (through-the-thickness) mechanical response of the core will be examined as a function of cell size in addition to the flexural response of the sandwich panel. The failure mechanisms of the core and the sandwich skins will be reported in addition to flexural strength and stiffness. Possible engineering applications will be identified.

Keywords: 3D woven, assembly, failure modes, honeycomb sandwich panel

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Authors: Tatipamula Samiksha Goud, .A.Naveena, M.sresta

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Traffic congestion is a major issue in many cities throughout the world, particularly in urban areas, and it is past time to switch from a fixed timer mode to an automated system. The current traffic signalling system is a fixed-time system that is inefficient if one lane is more functional than the others. A structure for an intelligent traffic control system is being designed to address this issue. When traffic density is higher on one side of a junction, the signal's green time is extended in comparison to the regular time. This study suggests a technique in which the signal's time duration is assigned based on the amount of traffic present at the time. Infrared sensors can be used to do this.

Keywords: infrared sensors, micro-controllers, LEDs, oscillators

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Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

Procedia PDF Downloads 352