Search results for: revenue losses

Authors: Betelhem M. Negede, Maarten Voors, Hugo De Groote, Bart Minten

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Farmers in Ethiopia produce most of their own food during one agricultural season per year. Therefore, they need to use on-farm storage technologies to bridge the lean season and benefit from price arbitrage. Maize stored using traditional storage bags offer no protection from insects and molds, leading to high storage losses. In Ethiopia access to and use of modern storage technologies are still limited, restraining farmers to benefit from local maize price fluctuations. We used a randomized controlled trial among 871 maize farmers to evaluate the impacts of Purdue Improved Crop Storage (PICS) bags, also known as hermetic bags, on storage losses, and especially on behavioral changes with respect to consumption, marketing, and income among maize farmers in Ethiopia. This study builds upon the limited previous experimental research that has tried to understand farmers’ grain storage and post-harvest losses and identify mechanisms behind the persistence of these challenges. Our main hypothesis is that access to PICS bags allows farmers to increase production, storage and maize income. Also delay the length of maize storage, reduce maize post-harvest losses and improve their food security. Our results show that even though farmers received only three PICS bags that represent 10percent of their total maize stored, they delay their length of maize storage for sales by two weeks. However, we find no treatment effect on maize income, suggesting that the arbitrage of two weeks is too small. Also, we do not find any reduction in storage losses due to farmers’ reaction by selling early and by using cheap and readily available but potentially harmful storage chemicals. Looking at the heterogeneity treatment effects between the treatment variable and highland and lowland villages, we find a decrease in the percentage of maize stored by 4 percent in the highland villages. This confirms that location specific factors, such as agro-ecology and proximity to markets are important factors that influence whether and how much of the harvest a farmer stores. These findings highlight the benefits of hermetic storage bags, by allowing farmers to make inter-temporal arbitrage and by reducing potential health risks from storage chemicals. The main policy recommendation that emanates from our study is that postharvest losses reduction throughout the whole value chain is an important pathway to food and income security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, future storage loss interventions with hermetic storage technologies should take into account the agro-ecology of the study area and quantify storage losses beyond farmers self-reported losses, such as the count and weigh method. Finally, studies on hermetic storage technologies indicate positive impacts on post-harvest losses and in improving food security, but the adoption and use of these technologies is currently still low in SSA. Therefore, future works on the scaling up of hermetic bags, should consider reasons why farmers only use PICS bags to store grains for consumption, which is usually related to a safety-first approach or due to lack of incentives (higher price from maize not treated with chemicals), and no grain quality check.

Keywords: arbitrage, PICS hermetic bags, post-harvest storage loss, RCT

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Authors: C. F. Ocoleanu, G. Cividjian, Gh. Manolea

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In this paper, we present two solutions for connections quality pre-control of Crimp Contacts and to identify in the first moments the connections improperly executed, before final assembly of a electrical machines. The first solution supposed experimental determination of specific losses by calculated the initial rate of temperature rise. This can be made drawing the tangent at the origin at heating curve. The method can be used to identify bad connections by passing a current through the winding at ambient temperature and simultaneously record connections temperatures in the first few minutes since the current is setting. The second proposed solution is to apply to each element crimping a thermal indicator one level, and making a test heating with a heating current corresponding to critical temperature indicator.

Keywords: temperature, crimp contact, thermal indicator, current distribution, specific losses

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Authors: Ahmed Hamzi, Bryan Norman

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Having scribes help document patient records in electronic health record systems can improve hospitalists’ productivity. But hospitals need to determine the optimum number of scribes to hire to maximize scribe cost effectiveness. Scribe attendance uncertainty due to planned and unplanned absences is a primary challenge. This paper presents simulation and analytical models to determine the optimum number of scribes for a hospital to hire. Scribe staffing practices vary from one context to another; different staffing scenarios are considered where having extra attending scribes provides or does not provide additional value and utilizing on-call scribes to fill in for potentially absent scribes. These staffing scenarios are assessed for different scribe revenue ratios (ratio of the value of the scribe relative to scribe costs) ranging from 100% to 300%. The optimum solution depends on the absenteeism rate, revenue ratio, and desired service level. The analytical model obtains solutions easier and faster than the simulation model, but the simulation model is more accurate. Therefore, the analytical model’s solutions are compared with the simulation model’s solutions regarding both the number of scribes hired and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, an Excel tool has been developed to facilitate decision-makers in easily obtaining solutions using the analytical model.

Keywords: hospitalists, workload, optimization cost, economic analysis

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Authors: Yongqi Dong, Zuo Zhang, Rui Fu, Li Li

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The records generated by taxicabs which are equipped with GPS devices is of vital importance for studying human mobility behavior, however, here we are focusing on taxi drivers' operation strategies between workdays and weekends temporally and spatially. We identify a group of valuable characteristics through large scale drivers' behavior in a complex metropolis environment. Based on the daily operations of 31,000 taxi drivers in New York City, we classify drivers into top, ordinary and low-income groups according to their monthly working load, daily income, daily ranking and the variance of the daily rank. Then, we apply big data analysis and visualization methods to compare the different characteristics among top, ordinary and low income drivers in selecting of working time, working area as well as strategies between workdays and weekends. The results verify that top drivers do have special operation tactics to help themselves serve more passengers, travel faster thus make more money per unit time. This research provides new possibilities for fully utilizing the information obtained from urban taxicab data for estimating human behavior, which is not only very useful for individual taxicab driver but also to those policy-makers in city authorities.

Keywords: big data, operation strategies, comparison, revenue, temporal, spatial

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Authors: Martina Kaufmann, Thomas Goetz, Anastasiya A. Lipnevich, Reinhard Pekrun

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Positive emotions have been shown to benefit from optimistic perceptions, even if these perceptions are illusory. The current research investigated the impact of illusions of control on positive emotions. There is empirical evidence showing that people are more emotionally attentive to losses than to gains. Hence, we expected that, compared to gains, losses in illusory control would have a stronger impact on positive emotions. The results of two experimental studies support this assumption: Participants who experienced gains in illusory control showed no substantial change in positive emotions. However, positive emotions decreased when they perceived a loss in illusory control. These results suggest that a loss of illusory control (but not a gain thereof) mediates the impact of the situation on individuals’ positive emotions. Implications for emotion theory and practice are discussed.

Keywords: cognitive appraisal, control, illusions, optimism, positive emotions

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Authors: S. Neelima, P. S. Subramanyam

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A distribution system is an interface between the bulk power system and the consumers. Among these systems, radial distributions system is popular because of low cost and simple design. In distribution systems, the voltages at buses reduces when moved away from the substation, also the losses are high. The reason for a decrease in voltage and high losses is the insufficient amount of reactive power, which can be provided by the shunt capacitors. But the placement of the capacitor with an appropriate size is always a challenge. Thus, the optimal capacitor placement problem is to determine the location and size of capacitors to be placed in distribution networks in an efficient way to reduce the power losses and improve the voltage profile of the system. For this purpose, in this paper, two stage methodologies are used. In the first stage, the load flow of pre-compensated distribution system is carried out using ‘dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm (DRDLFA)’. On the basis of this load flow the potential locations of compensation are computed. In the second stage, Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique is used to determine the optimal location and size of the capacitors such that the cost of the energy loss and capacitor cost to be a minimum. The above method is tested on IEEE 9 and 34 bus system and compared with other methods in the literature.

Keywords: dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm, DRDLFA, genetic algorithm, electrical distribution network, optimal capacitors placement, voltage profile improvement, loss reduction

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Authors: Dana Al-Qattan, Faiza Goodarzi, Heba Al-Resheedan, Kawther Shehab, Shoug Al-Ansari

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This project involves working with different types of forecasting methods and facility planning tools to help the company we have chosen to improve and reduce its inventory, increase its sales, and decrease its wastes and losses. The methods that have been used by the company have shown no improvement in decreasing the annual losses. The research made in the company has shown that no interest has been made in exploring different techniques to help the company. In this report, we introduce several methods and techniques that will help the company make more accurate forecasts and use of the available space efficiently. We expect our approach to reduce costs without affecting the quality of the product, and hence making production more viable.

Keywords: production planning, inventory management, inventory control, simulation, facility planning and design, engineering economy and costs

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Authors: Mahmoud Samkan

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Dispersed Generation (DG) is a promising solution to many power system problems such as voltage regulation and power loss. This paper proposes a heuristic two-step method to optimize the location and size of DG for reducing active power losses and, therefore, improve the voltage profile in radial distribution networks. In addition to a DG placed at the system load gravity center, this method consists in assigning a DG to each lateral of the network. After having determined the central DG placement, the location and size of each lateral DG are predetermined in the first step. The results are then refined in the second step. This method is tested for 33-bus system for 100% DG penetration. The results obtained are compared with those of other methods found in the literature.

Keywords: optimal location, optimal size, dispersed generation (DG), radial distribution networks, reducing losses

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Authors: Hamed Homaei, Seyed Reza Hejazi, Iraj Mahdavi

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Return policy (RP) is a strategy for supply chain coordination, whereby the retailer returns the unsold products to the manufacturer or the manufacturer offers a credit on unsold products to the retailer at the end of selling season. Early order commitment (EOC) is another efficient mechanism for channel coordination wherein the retailer commits to purchasing from the manufacturer a fixed order quantity a few periods in advance of the regular delivery lead time. This paper studies the coordination issue of a two-level supply chain with one retailer and one manufacturer through combining two mentioned contracts. The main purpose of this paper is to present an analytical model to show that how the contract which is created by combining RP and EOC can improve supply chain performance. Numerical analyses show that the supply chain coordination through mentioned contract in compare with EOC mechanism, can improve supply chain performance under certain ranges of model parameters. Furthermore, some numerical analyses are done to determine the best buyback price in order to achieve maximum cost saving in the supply chain. Finally, a revenue sharing scheme is presented in order to achieve a win-win condition in the supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, early order commitment, return policy, revenue sharing

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Authors: Anifowose Oluwafemi Dele, Ngah Rohana, Hasni Abdulahi

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The economic crisis, which resulted in university funding cuts with an astronomically devastating impact on teaching and research around the world. Sequel to this, Nigerian universities are in disarray due to insufficient government funding and are under pressure to discover new financial streams of Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) to disentangle finance-related teething problems and most tangible means of outsourcing finance inclusively for the creation of more entrepreneurial ventures through the possibilities of prudent IGR management. To the best of our knowledge, one way to address this still-unknown or underappreciated cog is through the strategic use of IGR and the outsourcing of financing for the launch of entrepreneurial ventures. As a result, it is critical to investigate and evaluate financial inclusion through prudently managed IGR to achieve greater financial inclusion for more long-term entrepreneurial ventures. Justifying the need to look inward and devise mechanisms for strong instruments internal fund raising and managing cash inflows to benefit university entrepreneurial ventures to increase the University's IGR for the benefit of the university and its stakeholders. The paper concludes that University Managers must fully accept the use of genuine means of boosting IGR through financial inclusion of in-house funds to aggressively established IGR boosting and the creation of entrepreneurial ventures that could serve as an alternative to inadequate government funding.

Keywords: government funding, university managers, financial inclusion, entrepreneurial venture

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Authors: Duong Thi Hong, Nguyen Van Hung, Martin Gummert

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Good practices of mechanical drying can reduce losses of grain quality. Recently, with demands of higher capacity for paddy drying in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam, columnar dryers have been introduced rapidly in this area. To improve the technology, this study was conducted to investigate and optimize the parameters for drying Jasmine paddy using an empirical cross-flow columnar dryer. The optimum parameters were resulted in air flow rate and drying temperature that are 1-1.5 m³ s-¹ t-¹ of paddy and 40-42°C, respectively. The investigation also addressed a solution of reversing drying air to achieve the uniformity of grain temperature and quality. Results of this study should be significant for developments of grain drying, contributing to reduce post harvest losses

Keywords: paddy drying, columnar dryer, air flow rate, drying temperature

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Authors: Cris Bravo

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Social entrepreneurship is a new and exciting topic that holds a great promise in helping alleviate the social problems of the world. As a new subject, the meaning of the term is too broad and this is counterproductive in trying to build understanding around the concept. The purpose of this study is to identify and compare the elements of social entrepreneurship as defined by seven international organizations leading social entrepreneurship projects: Ashoka Foundation, Skoll Foundation, Schwab Foundation and Yunus Center; as well as from three other institutions fostering social entrepreneurship: Global Social Benefit Institute, BRAC University, and Socialab. The study used document analysis from Skoll Foundation, Schwab Foundation, Yunus Center and Ashoka Foundation; and open ended interview to experts from the Global Social Benefit Institute at Santa Clara University in United States, BRAC University from Bangladesh, and Socialab from Argentina. The study identified three clearly differentiated schools of thought, based on their views on revenue, scalability, replicability and geographic location. While this study is by no means exhaustive, it provides an indication of the patterns of ideas fostered by important players in the field. By clearly identifying the similarities and differences in the concept of social entrepreneurship, research and practitioners are better equipped to build on the subject, and to promote more adequate and accurate social policies to foster the development of social entrepreneurship.

Keywords: replicability, revenue, scalability, schools of thought, social entrepreneurship

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Authors: Vikram Singh

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This paper aims to take into account carbon tax or cap-and-trade legislation to manage Delhi carbon emissions after a post-Kyoto treaty. This report estimated the influence of the carbon taxes or rebate/compensation cost at the household level. Here, the three possible scenarios will help to comprehend the difference between a straightforward compensation/rebate, and two clearly denoting progressive formula. The straightforward compensation is basically minimizing the regressive applications that will bears on cost. On the other hand, both the progressive formula will generate extra revenue, which will help for feasibility of more efficient, vehicles, appliances and buildings in the low-income household. For the hypothetical case of carbon price $40/tonne, low-income household for both urban and rural region could experience price burden up to 5% and 9% on their income as compared to 3% and 7% for high-income household respectively. The survey report also shown that carbon emission due low-income household are primarily by the substantive requirement like housing and transportation whereas almost 40% emission due to high-income household are by luxurious and non-essential items. The equal distribution of revenue cum incentives will not completely overcome high-income household’s investment in inessential items. However, it will merely help in investing their income in energy efficient and less carbon intensive items. Therefore, the rebate distribution on per capita basis instead on per households will benefit more especially large families at low-income group.

Keywords: household emission, carbon credit, carbon intensity, green house gas emission, carbon generation based insentives

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

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Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

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Authors: Andrey Kashcheev, Victor Sytnikov, Mikhail Dubinin, Elena Filipeva, Dmitriy Sorokin

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Various variants of technical solutions aimed at improving the reliability of power supply to consumers of 110 kV substation are considered. For each technical solution, the results of calculation and analysis of electrical modes and short-circuit currents in the electrical network are presented. The estimation of electric energy consumption for losses within the boundaries of substation reconstruction was carried out in accordance with the methodology for determining the standards of technological losses of electricity during its transmission through electric networks. The assessment of the technical and economic feasibility of the use of HTS CL compared with the complex reconstruction of the 110 kV substation was carried out. It is shown that the use of high-temperature superconducting AC cable lines is a possible alternative to traditional technical solutions used in the reconstruction of substations.

Keywords: superconductivity, cable lines, superconducting cable, AC cable, feasibility

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Authors: Awais Ahmed, Javed Iqbal

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Pakistan has been for many years facing extreme challenges in energy deficit due to the shortage of power generation compared to increasing demand. A part of this energy deficit is also contributed by the power lost in transmission and distribution network. Unfortunately, distribution companies are not equipped with modern technologies and methods to identify and eliminate these losses. According to estimate, total energy lost in early 2000 was between 20 to 26 percent. To address this issue the present research study was designed with the objectives of developing a standalone GIS application for distribution companies having the capability of loss calculation as well as identification of overloaded transformers. For this purpose, Hilal Road feeder in Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) was selected as study area. An extensive GPS survey was conducted to identify each consumer, linking it to the secondary pole of the transformer, geo-referencing equipment and documenting conductor sizes. To identify overloaded transformer, accumulative kWH reading of consumer on transformer was compared with threshold kWH. Technical losses of 11kV and 220V lines were calculated using the data from substation and resistance of the network calculated from the geo-database. To automate the process a standalone GIS application was developed using ArcObjects with engineering analysis capabilities. The application uses GIS database developed for 11kV and 220V lines to display and query spatial data and present results in the form of graphs. The result shows that about 14% of the technical loss on both high tension (HT) and low tension (LT) network while about 4 out of 15 general duty transformers were found overloaded. The study shows that GIS can be a very effective tool for distribution companies in management and planning of their distribution network.

Keywords: geographical information system, GIS, power distribution, distribution transformers, technical losses, GPS, SDSS, spatial decision support system

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Authors: Bo Yang, Hali̇l Ceylan, Ali Ulvi̇ Uzer

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This experimental study was performed to investigate the effect of biofuel co-products (BCPs) with sulfur-free lignin addition on the unconsolidated on strength and durability behavior in pavement soil stabilization subjected to freezing–thawing cycles. For strength behavior, a series of unconfined compression tests were conducted. Mass losses were also calculated after freezing–thawing cycles as criteria for durability behavior. To investigate the effect of the biofuel co-products on the durability behavior of the four type’s soils, mass losses were calculated after 12 freezing–thawing cycles. The co-products tested are promising additives for improving durability under freeze-thaw conditions, and each type has specific advantages.

Keywords: durability, mass lose, freezing–thawing test, bio-energy co-product, soil stabilization

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Authors: Ismail Tas, Yusuf Ersoy Yildirim, Yavuz Fatih Fidantemiz, Aysegul Boyacioglu, Demet Uygan, Ozgur Ates, Erdinc Savasli, Oguz Onder, Murat Tugrul

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The biggest input of agricultural production is irrigation, water and energy. Although it varies according to the conditions in drip and sprinkler irrigation systems compared to surface irrigation systems, there is a significant amount of energy expenditure. However, this expense not only increases the user's control over the irrigation water but also provides an increase in water savings and water application efficiency. Thus, while irrigation water is used more effectively, it also contributes to reducing production costs. The Mobile Drip Irrigation System (MDIS) is a system in which new technologies are used, and it is one of the systems that are thought to play an important role in increasing the irrigation water utilization rate of plants and reducing water losses, as well as using irrigation water effectively. MDIS is currently considered the most effective method for irrigation, with the development of both linear and central motion systems. MDIS is potentially more advantageous than sprinkler irrigation systems in terms of reducing wind-induced water losses and reducing evaporation losses on the soil and plant surface. Another feature of MDIS is that the sprinkler heads on the systems (such as the liner and center pivot) can remain operational even when the drip irrigation system is installed. This allows the user to use both irrigation methods. In this study, the effect of MDIS and linear sprinkler irrigation method on sugar beet yield at different irrigation water levels will be revealed.

Keywords: MDIS, linear sprinkler, sugar beet, irrigation efficiency

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Authors: Ivannys Cappas Perez

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Worldwide the population of older adults is increasing. The World Health Organization (2022) estimates that it will double by 2050. Informal caregivers of older adults may experience contradictory impulses, overload, and multiple losses before the death of the older adult in their care. The general purpose of research was to identify and describe the affective ambivalence in informal caregivers of older adults in the face of loss and grief processes. The dimensions under study were affective ambivalence, informal caregivers of older adults, loss processes and the grieving process. A qualitative approach methodology and an empirical phenomenological design were used through Clark Moustakas' Multiangulation Model to describe, categorize and interpret, intentionality, temporality and intersubjectivity a problem never studied. Among the findings was the feminization of the role. Affective ambivalence is manifested through emotions, feelings, thoughts and behavior, including non-verbal language. The assumption of the role is highly influenced by an affective and moral factor, where a minimum of 35 hours per week are invested in without family and financial support. It was found that the participants experience objective and subjective overload. Furthermore, because of the role, they experienced loss of life, loss of aspects of themselves, loss of objects, emotional losses, and losses linked to development. On the other hand, up to two types of grief were found simultaneously. Finally, the presence of affective ambivalence was found with the same intensity 13 years after the loss of the older adult under care.

Keywords: affective ambivalence, informal caregivers of older adults, loss processes, grief processes

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Authors: A. Arshad, M. Lehtonen. M. Humayun

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With the increasing Distributed Generation (DG) penetration, distribution systems are advancing towards the smart grid technology for least latency in tackling voltage control problem in a distributed manner. This paper proposes a Multi-agent based distributed voltage level control. In this method a flat architecture of agents is used and agents involved in the whole controlling procedure are On Load Tap Changer Agent (OLTCA), Static VAR Compensator Agent (SVCA), and the agents associated with DGs and loads at their locations. The objectives of the proposed voltage control model are to minimize network losses and DG curtailments while maintaining voltage value within statutory limits as close as possible to the nominal. The total loss cost is the sum of network losses cost, DG curtailment costs, and voltage damage cost (which is based on penalty function implementation). The total cost is iteratively calculated for various stricter limits by plotting voltage damage cost and losses cost against varying voltage limit band. The method provides the optimal limits closer to nominal value with minimum total loss cost. In order to achieve the objective of voltage control, the whole network is divided into multiple control regions; downstream from the controlling device. The OLTCA behaves as a supervisory agent and performs all the optimizations. At first, a token is generated by OLTCA on each time step and it transfers from node to node until the node with voltage violation is detected. Upon detection of such a node, the token grants permission to Load Agent (LA) for initiation of possible remedial actions. LA will contact the respective controlling devices dependent on the vicinity of the violated node. If the violated node does not lie in the vicinity of the controller or the controlling capabilities of all the downstream control devices are at their limits then OLTC is considered as a last resort. For a realistic study, simulations are performed for a typical Finnish residential medium-voltage distribution system using Matlab ®. These simulations are executed for two cases; simple Distributed Voltage Control (DVC) and DVC with optimized loss cost (DVC + Penalty Function). A sensitivity analysis is performed based on DG penetration. The results indicate that costs of losses and DG curtailments are directly proportional to the DG penetration, while in case 2 there is a significant reduction in total loss. For lower DG penetration, losses are reduced more or less 50%, while for higher DG penetration, loss reduction is not very significant. Another observation is that the newer stricter limits calculated by cost optimization moves towards the statutory limits of ±10% of the nominal with the increasing DG penetration as for 25, 45 and 65% limits calculated are ±5, ±6.25 and 8.75% respectively. Observed results conclude that the novel voltage control algorithm proposed in case 1 is able to deal with the voltage control problem instantly but with higher losses. In contrast, case 2 make sure to reduce the network losses through proposed iterative method of loss cost optimization by OLTCA, slowly with time.

Keywords: distributed voltage control, distribution system, multi-agent systems, smart grids

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Authors: J. García-Pérez

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An approach to compute optimum seismic design parameters is presented. It is based on the optimization of the expected present value of the total cost, which includes the initial cost of structures as well as the cost due to earthquakes. Different types of seismicity models are considered, including one for characteristic earthquakes. Uncertainties are included in some variables to observe the influence on optimum values. Optimum seismic design coefficients are computed for three different structural types representing high, medium and low rise buildings, located near and far from the seismic sources. Ordinary and important structures are considered in the analysis. The results of optimum values show an important influence of seismicity models as well as of uncertainties on the variables.

Keywords: importance factors, optimum parameters, seismic losses, seismic risk, total cost

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Authors: Olurankinse Felix

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Local governments in Ondo State Nigeria are the third tier of government saddled with the responsibility of providing governance and economic services at the grassroots. To be able to do this, the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria provided that a proportion of Federation Account be allocated to them in addition to their internally generated revenue. From the allocation and other incidental sources of revenue, the local governments are expected to provide basic infrastructures and other social amenities to better the lots of the rural dwellers. Nevertheless, local governments’ performances in terms of provision of social amenities are without questioning and quite not encouraging. Assessing the performance of local governments in this period of dearth and scarcity of resources is highly indispensable more so that the activities of local governments’ staff are bedeviled and characterized with fraud, corruption and mismanagement. Considering the direct impact of the consequences of their action on the living standard of the rural dwellers therefore calls for the need to evaluate their level of performances using capital budgeting approach. The paper being a time series study adopts the survey design. Data were obtained through secondary source mainly from the Annual financial statements and publication of approved budgets estimates covering the period of study (2008-2012). The use of ratio analysis was employed in analyzing the comparative level of performances of the local governments under study. The result of the study shows that less than 30% of the local governments were able to harness the budgetary allocation to provide amenities to the beneficiaries while majority of the local governments were involved in unethical conduct ranging from theft of fund, corruption, diversion of funds and extra-budgetary activities. Also, there is poor internally generated revenue to complement the statutory allocation and besides, the monthly withholding of larger portions of local government share by the state in the name of joint account were also seen as contributory factors. The study recommends the need for transparency and accountability in public fund management through the oversight function of the state house of assembly. Also local government should be made to be autonomous and independent of the state by jettisoning the idea of joint account.

Keywords: performance, transparency and accountability, capital budgeting, joint account, local government autonomy

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Authors: Basant Kumar Singh, S. Subhachandhar, Vineet Ranjan Tripathi, Amit Kumar Singh, Uttam Singh, Santosh Kumar Lal

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Productivity of Blast Furnace is largely impacted by fuel efficiency and controlling heat loss is one of the enabling parameters for achieving lower fuel rate. 'I' Blast Furnace is the latest and largest Blast Furnace of Tata Steel Jamshedpur with working volume of 3230 m³ and with rated capacity of 3.055 million tons per annum. Optimizing heat losses in Belly and Bosh zone remained major challenge for blast furnace operators after its commissioning. 'I' Blast has installed Cast Iron & Copper Staves cooling members where copper staves are installed in Belly, Bosh & Lower Stack whereas cast iron staves are installed in upper stack area. Stave cooled Blast Furnaces are prone to higher heat losses in Belly and Bosh region with an increase in coal injection rate as Bosh gas volume increases. Under these conditions, managing gas flow pattern through proper burden distribution, casting techniques & by maintaining desired raw material qualities are of utmost importance for sustaining high injection rates. This study details, the burden distribution control by Ore & Coke ratio adjustment at wall and center of Blast Furnace as the coal injection rates increased from 140 kg/thm to 210 kg/thm. Control of blowing parameters, casting philosophy, specification for raw materials & devising operational practice for controlling heat losses is also elaborated with the model that is used to visualize heat loss pattern in different zones of Blast Furnace.

Keywords: blast furnace, staves, gas flow pattern, belly/bosh heat losses, ore/coke ratio, blowing parameters, casting, operation practice

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Authors: Ali Heydarimoghim

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In this paper, the optimal placement of charging and discharging stations is done to determine the location and capacity of the stations, reducing the cost of electric vehicle owners' losses, reducing the cost of distribution system losses, and reducing the costs associated with the stations. Also, observing the permissible limits of the bus voltage and the capacity of the stations and their distance are considered as constraints of the problem. Given the traffic situation in different areas of a city, we estimate the amount of energy required to charge and the amount of energy provided to discharge electric vehicles in each area. We then introduce the electricity distribution system of the city in question. Following are the scenarios for introducing the problem and introducing the objective and constraint functions. Finally, the simulation results for different scenarios are compared.

Keywords: charging & discharging stations, hybrid vehicles, optimization, replacement

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Authors: Ngoc-Hieu Vu

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Dairy production in Vietnam is a relatively new agricultural activity and milk production increased remarkably in recent years. Smallholders are still the main drivers for this development, especially in the southern part of the country. However, information on the farming practices is very limited. Therefore, this study aimed to determine factors influencing milk yield and quality (milk fat, total solids, solids-not-fat, total number of bacteria, and somatic cell count) and revenue of dairy farms in Southern Vietnam. The collection of data was at the farm level; individual animal records were unavailable. The 539 studied farms were located in the provinces Lam Dong (N=111 farms), Binh Duong (N=69 farms), Long An (N=174 farms), and Ho Chi Minh city (N=185 farms). The dataset included 9221 monthly test-day records of the farms from January 2013 to May 2015. Seasons were defined as rainy and dry. Farms sizes were classified as small (< 10 milking cows), medium (10 to 19 milking cows) and large (≥ 20 milking cows). The model for each trait contained year-season and farm region-farm size as subclass fixed effects, and individual farm and residual as random effects. Results showed that year-season, region, and farm size were determining sources of variation affecting all studied traits. Milk yield was higher in dry than in rainy seasons (P < 0.05), while it tended to increase from years 2013 to 2015. Large farms had higher yields (445.6 kg/cow) than small (396.7 kg/cow) and medium (428.0 kg/cow) farms (P < 0.05). Small farms, in contrast, were superior to large farms in terms of milk fat, total solids, solids-not-fat, total number of bacteria, and somatic cell count than large farms (P < 0.05). Revenue per cow was higher in large compared with medium and small farms. In conclusion, large farms achieved higher milk yields and revenues per cow, while small farms were superior in milk quality. Overall, milk yields were low and better training, financial support and marketing opportunities for farmers are needed to improve dairy production and increase farm revenues in Southern Vietnam.

Keywords: farm size, milk yield and quality, season, Southern Vietnam

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Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Chien-Hung Hsieh, Ching-Yi Lu

Abstract:

Demographic aging is the major problem that Taiwanese society is facing, and retirement life adaptation is the most concerning issue. In recent years, studies have suggested that in order to have successful aging and retirement planning, a view for the future is necessary. In Taiwan, civil servants receive better pensions and retirement benefits than do other industries. Therefore, their retirement preparation is considerably more significant than other senior groups in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to understand the correlation of proactive coping and retirement planning of senior civil servants in Taiwan. The method is conducted by questionnaire surveys, with 342 valid questionnaires collected. The results of this study are: 1. The background variables of the interviewees, including age, perceived economic statuses, and retirement statuses, are all significantly related to their proactive coping and retirement planning. 2. Regarding age, the interviewees with ages 55 and above have better proactive coping and retirement planning than those with ages 45 and below. 3. In the aspect of perceived economic statuses, the participants who feel “very good” economic statuses have better proactive coping ability and retirement readiness than those who feel “bad” and “very bad”. 4. Retirees have better proactive coping and retirement planning than those who are still working. 5. Monthly income is significant in retirement planning only. The participants’ retirement planning would be better if they have higher incomes. Furthermore, the participants’ retirement planning would be better if their revenue were €1453~€1937, than if their revenue were below €968. 6. There are positive correlations between proactive coping and retirement planning. 7. Proactive coping can predict retirement planning. The result of this study will be provided as references to the Taiwan government for educational retirement planning policies.

Keywords: proactive coping, retirement planning, civil servants, demographic aging

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Authors: Mostafa Aminzadeh, Min Deng

Abstract:

Modeling loss data is an important part of actuarial science. Actuaries use models to predict future losses and manage financial risk, which can be beneficial for marketing purposes. In the insurance industry, small claims happen frequently while large claims are rare. Traditional distributions such as Normal, Exponential, and inverse-Gaussian are not suitable for describing insurance data, which often show skewness and fat tails. Several authors have studied classical and Bayesian inference for parameters of composite distributions, such as Exponential-Pareto, Weibull-Pareto, and Inverse Gamma-Pareto. These models separate small to moderate losses from large losses using a threshold parameter. This research introduces a computational approach using a nonlinear regression model for loss data that relies on multiple predictors. Simulation studies were conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimation method. The simulations confirmed that the proposed method provides precise estimates for regression parameters. It's important to note that this approach can be applied to datasets if goodness-of-fit tests confirm that the composite distribution under study fits the data well. To demonstrate the computations, a real data set from the insurance industry is analyzed. A Mathematica code uses the Fisher information algorithm as an iteration method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of regression parameters.

Keywords: maximum likelihood estimation, fisher scoring method, non-linear regression models, composite distributions

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Authors: Laura V. Gonzalez, Juan B. Duarte, Luis A. Palacio

Abstract:

Decision making can be conditioned by factors such as the environments, circumstances, behavioral biases, emotions, beliefs and preferences of the participants. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect ‘amount of information’ and ‘number of options’, on the behavior of competitors under a bilateral negotiation context. For the above, it has been designed an experiment as a classroom game where they negotiate goods, under the condition that none of the players knows exactly the real value of the asset. The game is designed under the concept of zero-sum (non-cooperative game) and focuses on the fact that agents must anticipate the strategies of their opponent to improve their chances of winning in the negotiation. The empirical results show that, contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, players prefer to obtain low profits and losses, when faced with a higher expectation of losses, using sub-optimal strategies not in accordance with game theory.

Keywords: bilateral negotiation, classroom game, decision making, game theory

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Authors: D. Cardone

Abstract:

Past earthquakes have shown that seismic events may incur large economic losses in buildings. FEMA P-58 provides engineers a practical tool for the performance seismic assessment of buildings. In this study, FEMA P-58 is applied to two typical Italian pre-1970 reinforced concrete frame buildings, characterized by plain rebars as steel reinforcement and masonry infills and partitions. Given that suitable tools for these buildings are missing in FEMA P- 58, specific fragility curves and loss functions are first developed. Next, building performance is evaluated following a time-based assessment approach. Finally, expected annual losses for the selected buildings are derived and compared with past applications to old RC frame buildings representative of the US building stock. 

Keywords: FEMA P-58, RC frame buildings, plain rebars, Masonry infills, fragility functions, loss functions, expected annual loss

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Authors: Matar Celine, Gaucel Sebastien, Gontard Nathalie, Guilbert Stephane, Guillard Valerie

Abstract:

To increase the very short shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetable, Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) allows an optimal atmosphere composition to be maintained around the product and thus prevent its decay. This technology relies on the modification of internal packaging atmosphere due to equilibrium between production/consumption of gases by the respiring product and gas permeation through the packaging material. While, to the best of our knowledge, benefit of MAP for fresh fruits and vegetable has been widely demonstrated in the literature, its effect on shelf life increase has never been quantified and formalized in a clear and simple manner leading difficult to anticipate its economic and environmental benefit, notably through the decrease of food losses. Mathematical modelling of mass transfers in the food/packaging system is the basis for a better design and dimensioning of the food packaging system. But up to now, existing models did not permit to estimate food quality nor shelf life gain reached by using MAP. However, shelf life prediction is an indispensable prerequisite for quantifying the effect of MAP on food losses reduction. The objective of this work is to propose an innovative approach to predict shelf life of MAP food product and then to link it to a reduction of food losses and wastes. In this purpose, a ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was developed by coupling a new predictive deterioration model (based on visual surface prediction of deterioration encompassing colour, texture and spoilage development) with models of the literature for respiration and permeation. A major input of this modelling tool is the maximal percentage of deterioration (MAD) which was assessed from dedicated consumers’ studies. Strawberries of the variety Charlotte were selected as the model food for its high perishability, high respiration rate; 50-100 ml CO₂/h/kg produced at 20°C, allowing it to be a good representative of challenging post-harvest storage. A value of 13% was determined as a limit of acceptability for the consumers, permitting to define products’ shelf life. The ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was validated in isothermal conditions (5, 10 and 20°C) and in dynamic temperature conditions mimicking commercial post-harvest storage of strawberries. RMSE values were systematically lower than 3% for respectively, O₂, CO₂ and deterioration profiles as a function of time confirming the goodness of model fitting. For the investigated temperature profile, a shelf life gain of 0.33 days was obtained in MAP compared to the conventional storage situation (no MAP condition). Shelf life gain of more than 1 day could be obtained for optimized post-harvest conditions as numerically investigated. Such shelf life gain permitted to anticipate a significant reduction of food losses at the distribution and consumer steps. This food losses' reduction as a function of shelf life gain has been quantified using a dedicated mathematical equation that has been developed for this purpose.

Keywords: food losses and wastes, modified atmosphere packaging, mathematical modeling, shelf life prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 183