Search results for: real gas model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20201

Search results for: real gas model

18971 Annexing the Strength of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for Real-time TB Reporting Using TB Situation Room (TSR) in Nigeria: Kano State Experience

Authors: Ibrahim Umar, Ashiru Rajab, Sumayya Chindo, Emmanuel Olashore

Abstract:

INTRODUCTION: Kano is the most populous state in Nigeria and one of the two states with the highest TB burden in the country. The state notifies an average of 8,000+ TB cases quarterly and has the highest yearly notification of all the states in Nigeria from 2020 to 2022. The contribution of the state TB program to the National TB notification varies from 9% to 10% quarterly between the first quarter of 2022 and second quarter of 2023. The Kano State TB Situation Room is an innovative platform for timely data collection, collation and analysis for informed decision in health system. During the 2023 second National TB Testing week (NTBTW) Kano TB program aimed at early TB detection, prevention and treatment. The state TB Situation room provided avenue to the state for coordination and surveillance through real time data reporting, review, analysis and use during the NTBTW. OBJECTIVES: To assess the role of innovative information and communication technology platform for real-time TB reporting during second National TB Testing week in Nigeria 2023. To showcase the NTBTW data cascade analysis using TSR as innovative ICT platform. METHODOLOGY: The State TB deployed a real-time virtual dashboard for NTBTW reporting, analysis and feedback. A data room team was set up who received realtime data using google link. Data received was analyzed using power BI analytic tool with statistical alpha level of significance of <0.05. RESULTS: At the end of the week-long activity and using the real-time dashboard with onsite mentorship of the field workers, the state TB program was able to screen a total of 52,054 people were screened for TB from 72,112 individuals eligible for screening (72% screening rate). A total of 9,910 presumptive TB clients were identified and evaluated for TB leading to diagnosis of 445 TB patients with TB (5% yield from presumptives) and placement of 435 TB patients on treatment (98% percentage enrolment). CONCLUSION: The TB Situation Room (TBSR) has been a great asset to Kano State TB Control Program in meeting up with the growing demand for timely data reporting in TB and other global health responses. The use of real time surveillance data during the 2023 NTBTW has in no small measure improved the TB response and feedback in Kano State. Scaling up this intervention to other disease areas, states and nations is a positive step in the right direction towards global TB eradication.

Keywords: tuberculosis (tb), national tb testing week (ntbtw), tb situation rom (tsr), information communication technology (ict)

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18970 Modeling Heat-Related Mortality Based on Greenhouse Emissions in OECD Countries

Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

Abstract:

Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

Procedia PDF Downloads 337
18969 Design Channel Non Persistent CSMA MAC Protocol Model for Complex Wireless Systems Based on SoC

Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

Abstract:

This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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18968 A Deep Learning Based Integrated Model For Spatial Flood Prediction

Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

Abstract:

The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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18967 Model of Transhipment and Routing Applied to the Cargo Sector in Small and Medium Enterprises of Bogotá, Colombia

Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

Abstract:

This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

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18966 A Model for Predicting Organic Compounds Concentration Change in Water Associated with Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing

Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

Abstract:

Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

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18965 Unified Structured Process for Health Analytics

Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

Abstract:

Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

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18964 Aerodynamic Analysis of Vehicles in the Wind Tunnel and Water Tunnel

Authors: Elmo Thiago Lins Cöuras Ford, Valentina Alessandra Carvalho do Vale

Abstract:

The simulation in wind tunnel is used thoroughly to model real situations of drainages of air. Besides the automotive industry, a great number of applications can be numbered: dispersion of pollutant, studies of pedestrians comfort and dispersion of particles. This work had the objective of visualizing the characteristics aerodynamics of two automobiles in different ways. To accomplish that drainage of air a fan that generated a speed exists (measured with anemometer of hot thread) of 4,1m/s and 4,95m/s. To visualize the path of the air through the cars, in the wind tunnel, smoke was used, obtained with it burns of vegetable oil. For “to do smoke” vegetable oil was used, that was burned for a tension of 20 V generated by a thread of 2,5 mm. The cars were placed inside of the wind tunnel with the drainage of “air-smoke” and photographed, registering like this the path lines around them, in the 3 different speeds.

Keywords: aerodynamics, vehicle drag, vegetable oil, wind tunnel

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18963 Strategic Development of Urban Environmental Management Base on Good Governance - Case study of (Waste Management of Tehran)

Authors: A. Farhad Sadri, B. Ali Farhadi, C. Nasim Shalamzari

Abstract:

Waste management is a principle of urban and environmental governance. Waste management in Tehran metropolitan requires good strategies for better governance. Using of good urban governance principles together with eight main indexes can be an appropriate base for this aim. One of the reasonable tools in this field is usage of SWOT methods which provides possibility of comparing the opportunities, threats, weaknesses, and strengths by using IFE and EFE matrixes. The results of the above matrixes, respectively 2.533 and 2.403, show that management system of Tehran metropolitan wastes has performed weak regarding to internal factors and has not have good performance regarding using the opportunities and dealing with threats. In this research, prioritizing and describing the real value of each 24 strategies in waste management in Tehran metropolitan have been surveyed considering good governance derived from Quantitative Strategic Planning Management (QSPM) by using Kolomogrof-Smirnoff by 1.549 and significance level of 0.073 in order to define normalization of final values and all of the strategies utilities and Variance Analysis of ANOVA has been calculated for all SWOT strategies. Duncan’s test results regarding four WT, ST, WO, and SO strategies show no significant difference. In addition to mean comparison by Duncan method in this research, LSD (Lowest Significant Difference test) has been used by probability of 5% and finally, 7 strategies and final model of Tehran metropolitan waste management strategy have been defined. Increasing the confidence of people with transparency of budget, developing and improving the legal structure (rule-oriented and law governance, more responsibility about requirements of private sectors, increasing recycling rates and real effective participation of people and NGOs to improve waste management (contribution) and etc, are main available strategies which have been achieved based on good urban governance management principles.

Keywords: waste, strategy, environmental management, urban good governance, SWOT

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18962 A Preliminary Development of Virtual Sight-Seeing Website for Thai Temples on Rattanakosin Island

Authors: Pijitra Jomsri

Abstract:

Currently, the sources of cultures and tourist attractions are presented in online documentary form only. In order to make them more virtual, the researcher then collected and presented them in the form of Virtual Temple. The prototype, which is a replica of the actual location, was developed to the website and allows people who are interested in Rattanakosin Island can see in form of Panorama Pan View. By this way, anyone can access the data and appreciate the beauty of Rattanakosin Island in the virtual model like the real place. The result from the experiment showed that the levels of the knowledge on Thai temples in Rattanakosin Island increased; moreover, the users were highly satisfied with the systems. It can be concluded that virtual temples can support to publicize Thai arts, cultures and travels, as well as it can be utilized effectively.

Keywords: virtual sight-seeing, Rattanakosin Island, Thai temples, virtual temple

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18961 Instant Location Detection of Objects Moving at High Speed in C-OTDR Monitoring Systems

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

Abstract:

The practical efficient approach is suggested to estimate the high-speed objects instant bounds in C-OTDR monitoring systems. In case of super-dynamic objects (trains, cars) is difficult to obtain the adequate estimate of the instantaneous object localization because of estimation lag. In other words, reliable estimation coordinates of monitored object requires taking some time for data observation collection by means of C-OTDR system, and only if the required sample volume will be collected the final decision could be issued. But it is contrary to requirements of many real applications. For example, in rail traffic management systems we need to get data off the dynamic objects localization in real time. The way to solve this problem is to use the set of statistical independent parameters of C-OTDR signals for obtaining the most reliable solution in real time. The parameters of this type we can call as 'signaling parameters' (SP). There are several the SP’s which carry information about dynamic objects instant localization for each of C-OTDR channels. The problem is that some of these parameters are very sensitive to dynamics of seismoacoustic emission sources but are non-stable. On the other hand, in case the SP is very stable it becomes insensitive as a rule. This report contains describing the method for SP’s co-processing which is designed to get the most effective dynamic objects localization estimates in the C-OTDR monitoring system framework.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, co-processing of signaling parameters, high-speed objects localization, multichannel monitoring systems

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18960 Analysis of the Temperature Dependence of Local Avalanche Compact Model for Bipolar Transistors

Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn

Abstract:

We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.

Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche

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18959 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic

Authors: Jiri Dufek

Abstract:

The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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18958 Integrating Wearable Devices in Real-Time Computer Applications of Petrochemical Systems

Authors: Paul B Stone, Subhashini Ganapathy, Mary E. Fendley, Layla Akilan

Abstract:

As notifications become more common through mobile devices, it is important to understand the impact of wearable devices on the improved user experience of man-machine interfaces. This study examined the use of a wearable device for a real-time system using a computer-simulated petrochemical system. The key research question was to determine how using the information provided by the wearable device can improve human performance through measures of situational awareness and decision making. Results indicate that there was a reduction in response time when using the watch, and there was no difference in situational awareness. Perception of using the watch was positive, with 83% of users finding value in using the watch and receiving haptic feedback.

Keywords: computer applications, haptic feedback, petrochemical systems, situational awareness, wearable technology

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18957 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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18956 Simulation of Flow Patterns in Vertical Slot Fishway with Cylindrical Obstacles

Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri

Abstract:

Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.

Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’

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18955 Multiple Fault Diagnosis in Digital Circuits using Critical Path Tracing and Enhanced Deduction Algorithm

Authors: Mohamed Mahmoud

Abstract:

This paper has developed an effect-cause analysis technique for fault diagnosis in digital circuits. The main algorithm of our technique is based on the Enhanced Deduction Algorithm, which processes the real response of the CUT to the applied test T to deduce the values of the internal lines. An experimental version of the algorithm has been implemented in C++. The code takes about 7592 lines. The internal values are determined based on the logic values under the permanent stuck-fault model. Using a backtracking strategy guarantees that the actual values are covered by at least one solution, or no solution is found.

Keywords: enhanced deduction algorithm, backtracking strategy, automatic test equipment, verfication

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18954 Exergetic Optimization on Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Systems

Authors: George N. Prodromidis, Frank A. Coutelieris

Abstract:

Biogas can be currently considered as an alternative option for electricity production, mainly due to its high energy content (hydrocarbon-rich source), its renewable status and its relatively low utilization cost. Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) stacks convert fuel’s chemical energy to electricity with high efficiencies and reveal significant advantages on fuel flexibility combined with lower emissions rate, especially when utilize biogas. Electricity production by biogas constitutes a composite problem which incorporates an extensive parametric analysis on numerous dynamic variables. The main scope of the presented study is to propose a detailed thermodynamic model on the optimization of SOFC-based power plants’ operation based on fundamental thermodynamics, energy and exergy balances. This model named THERMAS (THERmodynamic MAthematical Simulation model) incorporates each individual process, during electricity production, mathematically simulated for different case studies that represent real life operational conditions. Also, THERMAS offers the opportunity to choose a great variety of different values for each operational parameter individually, thus allowing for studies within unexplored and experimentally impossible operational ranges. Finally, THERMAS innovatively incorporates a specific criterion concluded by the extensive energy analysis to identify the most optimal scenario per simulated system in exergy terms. Therefore, several dynamical parameters as well as several biogas mixture compositions have been taken into account, to cover all the possible incidents. Towards the optimization process in terms of an innovative OPF (OPtimization Factor), presented here, this research study reveals that systems supplied by low methane fuels can be comparable to these supplied by pure methane. To conclude, such an innovative simulation model indicates a perspective on the optimal design of a SOFC stack based system, in the direction of the commercialization of systems utilizing biogas.

Keywords: biogas, exergy, efficiency, optimization

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18953 Designing Equivalent Model of Floating Gate Transistor

Authors: Birinderjit Singh Kalyan, Inderpreet Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi

Abstract:

In this paper, an equivalent model for floating gate transistor has been proposed. Using the floating gate voltage value, capacitive coupling coefficients has been found at different bias conditions. The amount of charge present on the gate has been then calculated using the transient models of hot electron programming and Fowler-Nordheim Tunnelling. The proposed model can be extended to the transient conditions as well. The SPICE equivalent model is designed and current-voltage characteristics and Transfer characteristics are comparatively analysed. The dc current-voltage characteristics, as well as dc transfer characteristics, have been plotted for an FGMOS with W/L=0.25μm/0.375μm, the inter-poly capacitance of 0.8fF for both programmed and erased states. The Comparative analysis has been made between the present model and capacitive coefficient coupling methods which were already available.

Keywords: FGMOS, floating gate transistor, capacitive coupling coefficient, SPICE model

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18952 Effects of Merging Personal and Social Responsibility with Sports Education Model on Students' Game Performance and Responsibility

Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Wei-Ting Hsu

Abstract:

The purposes of the study were to understand these topics as follows: 1. To explore the effect of merging teaching personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 2. To explore the effect of sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 3. To compare the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' game performance and responsibility. The participants include three high school physical education teachers and six physical education classes. Every teacher teaches an experimental group and a control group. The participants had 121 students, including 65 students in the experimental group and 56 students in the control group. The research methods had game performance assessment, questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments include personal and social responsibility questionnaire and game performance assessment instrument. Paired t-test test and MANCOVA were used to test the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' learning performance. 1) "Merging TPSR with sports education model" showed significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with self-direction, helping others, cooperation. 2) "Sports education model" also had significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with effort, self-direction, helping others. 3.) There was no significant difference in game performance and responsibilities between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model". 4)."Merging TPSR with sports education model" significantly improve learning atmosphere and peer relationships, it may be developed in the physical education curriculum. The conclusions were as follows: Both "Merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" can help improve students' responsibility and game performance. However, "Merging TPSR with sports education model" can reduce the competitive atmosphere in highly intensive games between students. The curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model is a good approach for moral character education.

Keywords: curriculum and teaching model, sports self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, character education

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18951 Impact of Charging PHEV at Different Penetration Levels on Power System Network

Authors: M. R. Ahmad, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, N. A. Rahmat

Abstract:

Plug-in Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (PHEV) has gained immense popularity in recent years. PHEV offers numerous advantages compared to the conventional internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Millions of PHEVs are estimated to be on the road in the USA by 2020. Uncoordinated PHEV charging is believed to cause severe impacts to the power grid; i.e. feeders, lines and transformers overload and voltage drop. Nevertheless, improper PHEV data model used in such studies may cause the findings of their works is in appropriated. Although smart charging is more attractive to researchers in recent years, its implementation is not yet attainable on the street due to its requirement for physical infrastructure readiness and technology advancement. As the first step, it is finest to study the impact of charging PHEV based on real vehicle travel data from National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and at present charging rate. Due to the lack of charging station on the street at the moment, charging PHEV at home is the best option and has been considered in this work. This paper proposed a technique that comprehensively presents the impact of charging PHEV on power system networks considering huge numbers of PHEV samples with its traveling data pattern. Vehicles Charging Load Profile (VCLP) is developed and implemented in IEEE 30-bus test system that represents a portion of American Electric Power System (Midwestern US). Normalization technique is used to correspond to real time loads at all buses. Results from the study indicated that charging PHEV using opportunity charging will have significant impacts on power system networks, especially whereas bigger battery capacity (kWh) is used as well as for higher penetration level.

Keywords: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, transportation electrification, impact of charging PHEV, electricity demand profile, load profile

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18950 New Estimation in Autoregressive Models with Exponential White Noise by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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18949 Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Liquefaction of Wood and It's Model Components Using a Modified Multistage Shrinking-Core Model

Authors: K. G. R. M. Jayathilake, S. Rudra

Abstract:

Wood degradation in hot compressed water is modeled with a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code using cellulose, xylan, and lignin as model compounds. Model compounds are reacted under catalyst-free conditions in a temperature range from 250 to 370 °C. Using a simplified reaction scheme where water soluble products, methanol soluble products, char like compounds and gas are generated through intermediates with each model compound. A modified multistage shrinking core model is developed to simulate particle degradation. In the modified shrinking core model, each model compound is hydrolyzed in separate stages. Cellulose is decomposed to glucose/oligomers before producing degradation products. Xylan is decomposed through xylose and then to degradation products where lignin is decomposed into soluble products before producing the total guaiacol, organic carbon (TOC) and then char and gas. Hydrolysis of each model compound is used as the main reaction of the process. Diffusion of water monomers to the particle surface to initiate hydrolysis and dissolution of the products in water is given importance during the modeling process. In the developed model the temperature variation depends on the Arrhenius relationship. Kinetic parameters from the literature are used for the mathematical model. Meanwhile, limited initial fast reaction kinetic data limit the development of more accurate CFD models. Liquefaction results of the CFD model are analyzed and validated using the experimental data available in the literature where it shows reasonable agreement.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, liquefaction, shrinking-core, wood

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18948 E-Payments, COVID-19 Restrictions, and Currency in Circulation: Thailand and Turkey

Authors: Zeliha Sayar

Abstract:

Central banks all over the world appear to be focusing first and foremost on retail central bank digital currency CBDC), i.e., digital cash/money. This approach is predicated on the belief that the use of cash has decreased, owing primarily to technological advancements and pandemic restrictions, and that a suitable foundation for the transition to a cashless society has been revealed. This study aims to contribute to the debate over whether digital money/CBDC can be a substitute or supplement to physical cash by examining the potential effects on cash demand. For this reason, this paper compares two emerging countries, Turkey, and Thailand, to demystify the impact of e-payment and COVID-19 restrictions on cash demand by employing fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The currency in circulation in two emerging countries, Turkey and Thailand, was examined in order to estimate the elasticity of different types of retail payments. The results demonstrate that real internet and mobile, cart, contactless payment, and e-money are long-term determinants of real cash demand in these two developing countries. Furthermore, with the exception of contactless payments in Turkey, there is a positive relationship between the currency in circulation and the various types of retail payments. According to findings, COVID-19 restrictions encourage the demand for cash, resulting in cash hoarding.

Keywords: CCR, DOLS, e-money, FMOLS, real cash

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18947 Applying the Crystal Model Approach on Light Nuclei for Calculating Radii and Density Distribution

Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

A new model, namely the crystal model, has been modified to calculate the radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to ⁸Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid-state physics, which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has obtained from analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in a general form. The equation that has been used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force, where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in ⁶Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+⁶,⁷Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both the radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of ⁹Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear physics, nuclear lattice, study nucleus as crystal, light nuclei till to ⁸Be

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18946 Efficient Bargaining versus Right to Manage in the Era of Liberalization

Authors: Panagiota Koliousi, Natasha Miaouli

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We compare product and labour market liberalization under the two trade union bargaining models: the Right-to-Manage (RTM) model and the Efficient Bargaining (EB) model. The vehicle is a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model that incorporates two types of agents (capitalists and workers), imperfectly competitive product and labour markets. The model is solved numerically employing common parameter values and data from the euro area. A key message is that product market deregulation is favourable under any labour market structure while opting for labour market deregulation one should provide special attention to the structure of the labour market such as the bargaining system of unions. If the prevailing way of bargaining is the RTM model then restructuring both markets is beneficial for all agents.

Keywords: market structure, structural reforms, trade unions, unemployment

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18945 Poultry as a Carrier of Chlamydia gallinacea

Authors: Monika Szymańska-Czerwińsk, Kinga Zaręba-Marchewka, Krzysztof Niemczuk

Abstract:

Chlamydiaceae are Gram-negative bacteria distributed worldwide in animals and humans. One of them is Chlamydia gallinacea recently discovered. Available data show that C. gallinacea is dominant chlamydial agent found in poultry in European and Asian countries. The aim of the studies was screening of poultry flocks in order to evaluate frequency of C. gallinacea shedding and genetic diversity. Sampling was conducted in different regions of Poland in 2019-2020. Overall, 1466 cloacal/oral swabs were collected in duplicate from 146 apparently healthy poultry flocks including chickens, turkeys, ducks, geese and quails. Dry swabs were used for DNA extraction. DNA extracts were screened using a Chlamydiaceae 23S rRNA real-time PCR assay. To identify Chlamydia species, specific real-time PCR assays were performed. Furthermore, selected samples were used for sequencing based on ompA gene fragments and variable domains (VD1-2, VD3-4). In total, 10.3% of the tested flocks were Chlamydiaceae-positive (15/146 farms). The presence of Chlamydiaceae was confirmed mainly in chickens (13/92 farms) but also in turkey (1/19 farms) and goose (1/26 farms) flocks. Eleven flocks were identified as C. gallinacea-positive while four flocks remained unclassified. Phylogenetic analysis revealed at least 16 genetic variants of C. gallinacea. Research showed that Chlamydiaceae occur in a poultry flock in Poland. The strains of C. gallinacea as dominant species show genetic variability.

Keywords: C. gallinacea, emerging agent, poultry, real-time PCR

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18944 Non-Autonomous Seasonal Variation Model for Vector-Borne Disease Transferral in Kampala of Uganda

Authors: Benjamin Aina Peter, Amos Wale Ogunsola

Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical model of malaria transmission was presented with the effect of seasonal shift, due to global fluctuation in temperature, on the increase of conveyor of the infectious disease, which probably alters the region transmission potential of malaria. A deterministic compartmental model was proposed and analyzed qualitatively. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches of the model were considered. The next-generation matrix is employed to determine the basic reproduction number of the model. Equilibrium points of the model were determined and analyzed. The numerical simulation is carried out using Excel Micro Software to validate and support the qualitative results. From the analysis of the result, the optimal temperature for the transmission of malaria is between and . The result also shows that an increase in temperature due to seasonal shift gives rise to the development of parasites which consequently leads to an increase in the widespread of malaria transmission in Kampala. It is also seen from the results that an increase in temperature leads to an increase in the number of infectious human hosts and mosquitoes.

Keywords: seasonal variation, indoor residual spray, efficacy of spray, temperature-dependent model

Procedia PDF Downloads 165
18943 Real-Time Observation of Concentration Distribution for Mix Liquids including Water in Micro Fluid Channel with Near-Infrared Spectroscopic Imaging Method

Authors: Hiroki Takiguchi, Masahiro Furuya, Takahiro Arai

Abstract:

In order to quantitatively comprehend thermal flow for some industrial applications such as nuclear and chemical reactors, detailed measurements for temperature and abundance (concentration) of materials at high temporal and spatial resolution are required. Additionally, rigorous evaluation of the size effect is also important for practical realization. This paper introduces a real-time spectroscopic imaging method in micro scale field, which visualizes temperature and concentration distribution of a liquid or mix liquids with near-infrared (NIR) wavelength region. This imaging principle is based on absorption of pre-selected narrow band from absorption spectrum peak or its dependence property of target liquid in NIR region. For example, water has a positive temperature sensitivity in the wavelength at 1905 nm, therefore the temperature of water can be measured using the wavelength band. In the experiment, the real-time imaging observation of concentration distribution in micro channel was demonstrated to investigate the applicability of micro-scale diffusion coefficient and temperature measurement technique using this proposed method. The effect of thermal diffusion and binary mutual diffusion was evaluated with the time-series visualizations of concentration distribution.

Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopic imaging, micro fluid channel, concentration distribution, diffusion phenomenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
18942 Interval Bilevel Linear Fractional Programming

Authors: F. Hamidi, N. Amiri, H. Mishmast Nehi

Abstract:

The Bilevel Programming (BP) model has been presented for a decision making process that consists of two decision makers in a hierarchical structure. In fact, BP is a model for a static two person game (the leader player in the upper level and the follower player in the lower level) wherein each player tries to optimize his/her personal objective function under dependent constraints; this game is sequential and non-cooperative. The decision making variables are divided between the two players and one’s choice affects the other’s benefit and choices. In other words, BP consists of two nested optimization problems with two objective functions (upper and lower) where the constraint region of the upper level problem is implicitly determined by the lower level problem. In real cases, the coefficients of an optimization problem may not be precise, i.e. they may be interval. In this paper we develop an algorithm for solving interval bilevel linear fractional programming problems. That is to say, bilevel problems in which both objective functions are linear fractional, the coefficients are interval and the common constraint region is a polyhedron. From the original problem, the best and the worst bilevel linear fractional problems have been derived and then, using the extended Charnes and Cooper transformation, each fractional problem can be reduced to a linear problem. Then we can find the best and the worst optimal values of the leader objective function by two algorithms.

Keywords: best and worst optimal solutions, bilevel programming, fractional, interval coefficients

Procedia PDF Downloads 441