Search results for: Statistical Approach

Authors: Somia Bouzid, Messaoud Ramdani

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The success of any diagnosis strategy critically depends on the sensors measuring process variables. This paper presents a detection and diagnosis sensor faults method based on a Bottleneck Neural Network (BNN). The BNN approach is used as a statistical process control tool for drinking water distribution (DWD) systems to detect and isolate the sensor faults. Variable reconstruction approach is very useful for sensor fault isolation, this method is validated in simulation on a nonlinear system: actual drinking water distribution system. Several results are presented.

Keywords: fault detection, localization, PCA, NLPCA, auto-associative neural network

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Authors: Hitham Yami

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This study will focus primarily on assessing the availability requirements of the electronic management of oil companies in Libya, and the mean objectives of the research applying electronic management and make recommendations and steps to approach electronic management. There are limited research and statistical analysis to support electronic management in Libyan companies. The groundwork for the proposed approach is to develop independent variables and the dependent variables to be restructured after it Alntra side of the field and the side to get the data to achieve the desired results and solving the problem faced by the Libyan Oil Corporation. All these strategies are proposed to achieve the goal, and solving Libyan oil installations.

Keywords: oil company’s revenue, independent variables, electronic management, Libyan oil corporation

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Authors: Shishen Xie, Yingda L. Xie

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially serious infectious disease that remains a health concern. The Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is a blood test to find out if an individual is tuberculous positive or negative. This study applies statistical analysis to the clinical data of interferon-gamma levels of seventy-three subjects who diagnosed pulmonary TB in an anti-tuberculous treatment. Data analysis is performed to determine if there is a significant decline in interferon-gamma levels for the subjects during a period of six months, and to infer if the anti-tuberculous treatment is effective.

Keywords: data analysis, interferon gamma release assay, statistical methods, tuberculosis infection

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Authors: Mpho Mokoatle, Darlington Mapiye, James Mashiyane, Stephanie Muller, Gciniwe Dlamini

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Great advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have resulted in availability of huge amounts of sequencing data in public and private repositories, enabling a holistic understanding of complex biological phenomena. Sequence data are used for a wide range of applications such as gene annotations, expression studies, personalized treatment and precision medicine. However, this rapid growth in sequence data poses a great challenge which calls for novel data processing and analytic methods, as well as huge computing resources. In this work, a machine and statistical learning approach for DNA sequence classification based on $k$-mer representation of sequence data is proposed. The approach is tested using whole genome sequences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates to (i) reduce the size of genomic sequence data, (ii) identify an optimum size of k-mers and utilize it to build classification models, (iii) predict the phenotype from whole genome sequence data of a given bacterial isolate, and (iv) demonstrate computing challenges associated with the analysis of whole genome sequence data in producing interpretable and explainable insights. The classification models were trained on 104 whole genome sequences of MTB isoloates. Cluster analysis showed that k-mers maybe used to discriminate phenotypes and the discrimination becomes more concise as the size of k-mers increase. The best performing classification model had a k-mer size of 10 (longest k-mer) an accuracy, recall, precision, specificity, and Matthews Correlation coeffient of 72.0%, 80.5%, 80.5%, 63.6%, and 0.4 respectively. This study provides a comprehensive approach for resampling whole genome sequencing data, objectively selecting a k-mer size, and performing classification for phenotype prediction. The analysis also highlights the importance of increasing the k-mer size to produce more biological explainable results, which brings to the fore the interplay that exists amongst accuracy, computing resources and explainability of classification results. However, the analysis provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from genomic data, and identify phenotype relationships which are important especially in explaining complex biological mechanisms.

Keywords: AWD-LSTM, bootstrapping, k-mers, next generation sequencing

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Authors: Darlington Mapiye, Mpho Mokoatle, James Mashiyane, Stephanie Muller, Gciniwe Dlamini

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Great advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have resulted in availability of huge amounts of sequencing data in public and private repositories, enabling a holistic understanding of complex biological phenomena. Sequence data are used for a wide range of applications such as gene annotations, expression studies, personalized treatment and precision medicine. However, this rapid growth in sequence data poses a great challenge which calls for novel data processing and analytic methods, as well as huge computing resources. In this work, a machine and statistical learning approach for DNA sequence classification based on k-mer representation of sequence data is proposed. The approach is tested using whole genome sequences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates to (i) reduce the size of genomic sequence data, (ii) identify an optimum size of k-mers and utilize it to build classification models, (iii) predict the phenotype from whole genome sequence data of a given bacterial isolate, and (iv) demonstrate computing challenges associated with the analysis of whole genome sequence data in producing interpretable and explainable insights. The classification models were trained on 104 whole genome sequences of MTB isoloates. Cluster analysis showed that k-mers maybe used to discriminate phenotypes and the discrimination becomes more concise as the size of k-mers increase. The best performing classification model had a k-mer size of 10 (longest k-mer) an accuracy, recall, precision, specificity, and Matthews Correlation coeffient of 72.0 %, 80.5 %, 80.5 %, 63.6 %, and 0.4 respectively. This study provides a comprehensive approach for resampling whole genome sequencing data, objectively selecting a k-mer size, and performing classification for phenotype prediction. The analysis also highlights the importance of increasing the k-mer size to produce more biological explainable results, which brings to the fore the interplay that exists amongst accuracy, computing resources and explainability of classification results. However, the analysis provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from genomic data, and identify phenotype relationships which are important especially in explaining complex biological mechanisms

Keywords: AWD-LSTM, bootstrapping, k-mers, next generation sequencing

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Authors: Shweta Kumari, Parmjit S. Panesar, Manab B. Bera

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The hydrolysis of lactose using β-galactosidase is one of the most promising biotechnological applications, which has wide range of potential applications in food processing industries. However, due to intracellular location of the yeast enzyme, and expensive extraction methods, the industrial applications of enzymatic hydrolysis processes are being hampered. The use of permeabilization technique can help to overcome the problems associated with enzyme extraction and purification of yeast cells and to develop the economically viable process for the utilization of whole cell biocatalysts in food industries. In the present investigation, standardization of permeabilization process of novel yeast isolate was carried out using a statistical model approach known as Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to achieve maximal b-galactosidase activity. The optimum operating conditions for permeabilization process for optimal β-galactosidase activity obtained by RSM were 1:1 ratio of toluene (25%, v/v) and ethanol (50%, v/v), 25.0 oC temperature and treatment time of 12 min, which displayed enzyme activity of 1.71 IU /mg DW.

Keywords: β-galactosidase, optimization, permeabilization, response surface methodology, yeast

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Authors: Rohit Gupta, Ravinder Agarwal

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Surface electromyographic (sEMG) signal has the potential to identify the human activities and intention. This potential is further exploited to control the artificial limbs using the sEMG signal from residual limbs of amputees. The paper deals with the development of multichannel cost efficient sEMG signal interface for research application, along with evaluation of proposed class dependent statistical approach of the feature selection method. The sEMG signal acquisition interface was developed using ADS1298 of Texas Instruments, which is a front-end interface integrated circuit for ECG application. Further, the sEMG signal is recorded from two lower limb muscles for three locomotions namely: Plane Walk (PW), Stair Ascending (SA), Stair Descending (SD). A class dependent statistical approach is proposed for feature selection and also its performance is compared with 12 preexisting feature vectors. To make the study more extensive, performance of five different types of classifiers are compared. The outcome of the current piece of work proves the suitability of the proposed feature selection algorithm for locomotion recognition, as compared to other existing feature vectors. The SVM Classifier is found as the outperformed classifier among compared classifiers with an average recognition accuracy of 97.40%. Feature vector selection emerges as the most dominant factor affecting the classification performance as it holds 51.51% of the total variance in classification accuracy. The results demonstrate the potentials of the developed sEMG signal acquisition interface along with the proposed feature selection algorithm.

Keywords: classifiers, feature selection, locomotion, sEMG

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Authors: Jalel Khelil

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In order to improve reliability of Gas Turbine machine especially its generator equipment, a fault diagnosis system based on fuzzy approach is proposed. Three various methods namely K-NN (K-nearest neighbors), F-KNN (Fuzzy K-nearest neighbors) and FNM (Fuzzy nearest mean) are adopted to provide the measurement of relative strength of vibration defaults. Both applications consist of two major steps: Feature extraction and default classification. 09 statistical features are extracted from vibration signals. 03 different classes are used in this study which describes vibrations condition: Normal, unbalance defect, and misalignment defect. The use of the fuzzy approaches and the classification results are discussed. Results show that these approaches yield high successful rates of vibration default classification.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, fuzzy classification k-nearest neighbor, vibration

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Jirawan Jitthavech, Vichit Lorchirachoonkul

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A statistical procedure using multiple comparisons test for proportions is proposed for variable selection in a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. The test statistic in the multiple comparisons is the proportion of efficient decision making units (DMUs) in a DEA model. Three methods of multiple comparisons test for proportions: multiple Z tests with Bonferroni correction, multiple tests in 2Xc crosstabulation and the Marascuilo procedure, are used in the proposed statistical procedure of iteratively eliminating the variables in a backward manner. Two simulation populations of moderately and lowly correlated variables are used to compare the results of the statistical procedure using three methods of multiple comparisons test for proportions with the hypothesis testing of the efficiency contribution measure. From the simulation results, it can be concluded that the proposed statistical procedure using multiple Z tests for proportions with Bonferroni correction clearly outperforms the proposed statistical procedure using the remaining two methods of multiple comparisons and the hypothesis testing of the efficiency contribution measure.

Keywords: Bonferroni correction, efficient DMUs, Marascuilo procedure, Pastor et al. method, 2xc crosstabulation

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Authors: Gülcan Taşkıran, Ayla Bayık Temel

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Background: Florence Nightingale, the modern founder of the nursing, is most famous for her role as a nurse. But not so much known about her contributions as a mathematician and statistician. Aim: In this conceptual article it is aimed to examine Florence Nightingale's statistics education, how she used her passion for statistics and applied statistical data in nursing care and her scientific contributions to statistical science. Design: Literature review method was used in the study. The databases of Istanbul University Library Search Engine, Turkish Medical Directory, Thesis Scanning Center of Higher Education Council, PubMed, Google Scholar, EBSCO Host, Web of Science were scanned to reach the studies. The keywords 'statistics' and 'Florence Nightingale' have been used in Turkish and English while being screened. As a result of the screening, totally 41 studies were examined from the national and international literature. Results: Florence Nightingale has interested in mathematics and statistics at her early ages and has received various training in these subjects. Lessons learned by Nightingale in a cultured family environment, her talent in mathematics and numbers, and her religious beliefs played a crucial role in the direction of the statistics. She was influenced by Quetelet's ideas in the formation of the statistical philosophy and received support from William Farr in her statistical studies. During the Crimean War, she applied statistical knowledge to nursing care, developed many statistical methods and graphics, so that she made revolutionary reforms in the health field. Conclusions: Nightingale's interest in statistics, her broad vision, the statistical ideas fused with religious beliefs, the innovative graphics she has developed and the extraordinary statistical projects that she carried out has been influential on the basis of her professional achievements. Florence Nightingale has also become a model for women in statistics. Today, using and teaching of statistics and research in nursing care practices and education programs continues with the light she gave.

Keywords: Crimean war, Florence Nightingale, nursing, statistics

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Authors: S. Bangphan, P. Bangphan, T.Boonkang

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Quality control helps industries in improvements of its product quality and productivity. Statistical Process Control (SPC) is one of the tools to control the quality of products that turning practice in bringing a department of industrial engineering process under control. In this research, the process control of a turning manufactured at workshops machines. The varying measurements have been recorded for a number of samples of a rice polished cylinder obtained from a number of trials with the turning practice. SPC technique has been adopted by the process is finally brought under control and process capability is improved.

Keywords: rice polished cylinder, statistical process control, control charts, process capability

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Authors: Shraddha Digole, Swarali Hingse, Uday Annapure

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Mycophenolic acid (MPA) is an immunosuppressant; produced by Penicillium Sp. Box-Behnken statistical experimental design was employed to optimize the condition of Penicillium brevicompactum NRRL 2011 for mycophenolic acid (MPA) production. Initially optimization of various physicochemical parameters and media components was carried out using one factor at a time approach and significant factors were screened by Taguchi L-16 orthogonal array design. Taguchi design indicated that glucose, KH2PO4 and MgSO4 had significant effect on MPA production. These variables were selected for further optimization studies using Box-Behnken design. Optimised fermentation condition, glucose (60 g/L), glycine (28 g/L), L-leucine (1.5g/L), KH2PO4 (3g/L), MgSO4.7H2O (1.5g/L), increased the production of MPA from 170 mg/L to 1032.54 mg/L. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed a high value of coefficient of determination R2 (0.9965), indicating a good agreement between experimental and predicted values and proves validity of the statistical model.

Keywords: Box-Behnken design, fermentation, mycophenolic acid, Penicillium brevicompactum

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, friedman test, machine learning, statistical hypothesis testing

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Authors: Forrest Kaatz, Adhemar Bultheel

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We use an informational statistical mechanics approach to study the catalytic thermodynamics of platinum and palladium cuboctahedral nanoclusters. Nanoclusters and their adatoms are viewed as chemical graphs with a nearest neighbor adjacency matrix. We use the Morse potential to determine bond energies between cluster atoms in a coordination type calculation. We use adsorbate energies calculated from density functional theory (DFT) to study the adatom effects on the thermodynamic quantities, which are derived from a Hamiltonian. Oxygen radical and molecular adsorbates are studied on platinum clusters and hydrogen on palladium clusters. We calculate the entropy, free energy, and total energy as the coverage of adsorbates increases from bridge and hollow sites on the surface. Thermodynamic behavior versus adatom coverage is related to the structural distribution of adatoms on the nanocluster surfaces. The thermodynamic functions are characterized using a simple adsorption model, with linear trends as the coverage of adatoms increases. The data exhibits size effects for the measured thermodynamic properties with cluster diameters between 2 and 5 nm. Entropy and enthalpy calculations of Pt-O2 compare well with previous theoretical data for Pt(111)-O2, and our Pd-H results show similar trends as experimental measurements for Pd-H2 nanoclusters. Our methods are general and may be applied to wide variety of nanocluster adsorbate systems.

Keywords: catalytic thermodynamics, palladium nanocluster absorbates, platinum nanocluster absorbates, statistical mechanics

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Authors: Shahbaz G. Hassan

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Water quality models are very important to predict the changes in surface water quality for environmental management. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the water qualities, and to provide directions for selecting models in specific situation. Water quality models include one kind of model based on a mechanistic approach, while other models simulate water quality without considering a mechanism. Mechanistic models can be widely applied and have capabilities for long-time simulation, with highly complexity. Therefore, more spaces are provided to explain the principle and application experience of mechanistic models. Mechanism models have certain assumptions on rivers, lakes and estuaries, which limits the application range of the model, this paper introduces the principles and applications of water quality model based on the above three scenarios. On the other hand, mechanistic models are more easily to compute, and with no limit to the geographical conditions, but they cannot be used with confidence to simulate long term changes. This paper divides the empirical models into two broad categories according to the difference of mathematical algorithm, models based on artificial intelligence and models based on statistical methods.

Keywords: empirical models, mathematical, statistical, water quality

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Authors: U. Datta

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The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Miky Lee, K. Kim, D. Lim, D. Cho

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This paper presents the planning, rationale for test specification derivation, sampling requirements, test facilities, and result analysis used to conduct lifetime expectancy endurance tests on power window switches (PWS) considering thermally induced mechanical stress under diurnal cyclic temperatures during normal operation (power cycling). The detail process of analysis and test results on the selected PWS set were discussed in this paper. A statistical approach to ‘life time expectancy’ was given to the measurement standards dealing with PWS lifetime determination through endurance tests. The approach choice, within the framework of the task, was explained. The present task was dedicated to voltage drop measurement to derive lifetime expectancy while others mostly consider contact or surface resistance. The measurements to perform and the main instruments to measure were fully described accordingly. The failure data from tests were analyzed to conclude lifetime expectancy through statistical method using Weibull cumulative distribution function. The first goal of this task is to develop realistic worst case lifetime endurance test specification because existing large number of switch test standards cannot induce degradation mechanism which makes the switches less reliable. 2nd goal is to assess quantitative reliability status of PWS currently manufactured based on test specification newly developed thru this project. The last and most important goal is to satisfy customer’ requirement regarding product reliability.

Keywords: power window switch, endurance test, Weibull function, reliability, degradation mechanism

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Authors: A. R. Manu, V. K. Agrawal, K. N. Balasubramanya Murthy

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Authentication is required in stored database systems so that only authorized users can access the data and related cloud infrastructures. This paper proposes an authentication technique using multi-factor and multi-dimensional authentication system with multi-level security. The proposed technique is likely to be more robust as the probability of breaking the password is extremely low. This framework uses a multi-modal biometric approach and SMS to enforce additional security measures with the conventional Login/password system. The robustness of the technique is demonstrated mathematically using a statistical analysis. This work presents the authentication system along with the user authentication architecture diagram, activity diagrams, data flow diagrams, sequence diagrams, and algorithms.

Keywords: design, implementation algorithms, performance, biometric approach

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Authors: F. A. Al-Awadhi, D. Al-Hulail

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In this study, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to detect single and multiple change points for daily earthquake body wave magnitude. The change point analysis is used in both backward (off-line) and forward (on-line) statistical research. In this study, it is used with the backward approach. Different types of change parameters are considered (mean, variance or both). The posterior model and the conditional distributions for single and multiple change points are derived and implemented using BUGS software. The model is applicable for any set of data. The sensitivity of the model is tested using different prior and likelihood functions. Using Mb data, we concluded that during January 2002 and December 2003, three changes occurred in the mean magnitude of Mb in Kuwait and its vicinity.

Keywords: multiple change points, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, earthquake magnitude, hierarchical Bayesian mode

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Mahshid Arabi

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With the rapid expansion of digital technologies and the internet, information security has become a critical priority for organizations and individuals. The widespread use of digital tools such as smartphones and internet networks facilitates the storage of vast amounts of data, but simultaneously, vulnerabilities and security threats have significantly increased. The aim of this study is to examine and analyze modern methods of information security management and to develop a comprehensive model to counteract threats and information misuse. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, including both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Initially, a systematic review of previous articles and research in the field of information security was conducted. Then, using the Delphi method, interviews with 30 information security experts were conducted to gather their insights on security challenges and solutions. Based on the results of these interviews, a comprehensive model for information security management was developed. The proposed model includes advanced encryption techniques, machine learning-based intrusion detection systems, and network security protocols. AES and RSA encryption algorithms were used for data protection, and machine learning models such as Random Forest and Neural Networks were utilized for intrusion detection. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, T-Test and ANOVA statistical tests were employed, and results were measured using accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity indicators of the models. Additionally, multiple regression analysis was conducted to examine the impact of various variables on information security. The findings of this study indicate that the comprehensive proposed model reduced cyber-attacks by an average of 85%. Statistical analysis showed that the combined use of encryption techniques and intrusion detection systems significantly improves information security. Based on the obtained results, it is recommended that organizations continuously update their information security systems and use a combination of multiple security methods to protect their data. Additionally, educating employees and raising public awareness about information security can serve as an effective tool in reducing security risks. This research demonstrates that effective and up-to-date information security management requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach, including the development and implementation of advanced techniques and continuous training of human resources.

Keywords: data protection, digital technologies, information security, modern management

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Authors: Abhishek Sharma, Amit Gupta, Manish Singhal

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Background: The management of patients with penetrating neck injuries in the prehospital setting and in the emergency department has evolved with regard to the use of multidetector computed tomographic (MDCT) imaging. Hence, there is a shift in the management of neck injuries from mandatory exploration in certain anatomic areas to more conservative approach using imaging and so-called “no zone approach”. Objective: To study the no zone approach in the management of penetrating neck injury using routine imaging in all stable patients. Methods: 137 patients with penetrating neck injury attending emergency department of level 1 trauma centre at AIIMS between 2008–2014 were retrospectively analysed. All hemodynamically stable patients were evaluated using CT scanning. Results: Stab injury is most common (55.91%) mode of pni in civilian population followed by gunshot(18.33%). The majority of patients could be managed with imaging and close observation. 39 patients (28.46%) required operative intervention. The most common indication for operative intervention was vascular followed by airway injury manifesting as hemodynamic destabilisation.There was no statistical difference between the zonal distribution of injuries in patients managed conservatively and those taken to OR. Conclusions: Study shows that patients with penetrating neck trauma who are haemodynamically stable and exhibit no “hard signs” of vascular injury or airway injury may be evaluated initially by MDCT imaging even when platysma violation is present. “No Zone” policy may be superior to traditional zone wise management.

Keywords: penetrating neck injury, zone approach, CT scanning, multidetector computed tomographic (MDCT)

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Authors: Sergio Paez Moncaleano, Alvaro Mauricio Montenegro

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This paper presents a novel statistical methodology for measuring and founding constructs in Latent Regression Analysis. This approach uses the qualities of Factor Analysis in binary data with interpretations on Item Response Theory (IRT). In addition, based on the fundamentals of submodel theory and with a convergence of many ideas of IRT, we propose an algorithm not just to solve the dimensionality problem (nowadays an open discussion) but a new research field that promises more fear and realistic qualifications for examiners and a revolution on IRT and educational research. In the end, the methodology is applied to a set of real data set presenting impressive results for the coherence, speed and precision. Acknowledgments: This research was financed by Colciencias through the project: 'Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models for Practical Application in Large Test Designed to Measure Multiple Constructs' and both authors belong to SICS Research Group from Universidad Nacional de Colombia.

Keywords: item response theory, dimensionality, submodel theory, factorial analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Hosein Panahi, Naser Yazdani

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we present a technical trading strategy that leverages the FinBERT language model and financial news analysis with a focus on news related to a subset of Nasdaq 100 stocks. Our approach surpasses the baseline Range Break-out strategy in the Bitcoin market, yielding a remarkable 24.8% increase in the win ratio for all Friday trades and an impressive 48.9% surge in short trades specifically on Fridays. Moreover, we conduct rigorous hypothesis testing to establish the statistical significance of these improvements. Our findings underscore considerable potential of our NLP-driven approach in enhancing trading strategies and achieving greater profitability within financial markets.

Keywords: quantitative finance, technical analysis, bitcoin market, NLP, language models, FinBERT, technical trading

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Authors: Zohar Manber, Ran Elkon

Abstract:

Accumulation of somatic mutations (SMs) in the genome is a major driving force of cancer development. Most SMs in the tumor's genome are functionally neutral; however, some cause damage to critical processes and provide the tumor with a selective growth advantage (termed cancer driver mutations). Current research on functional significance of SMs is mainly focused on finding alterations in protein coding sequences. However, the exome comprises only 3% of the human genome, and thus, SMs in the noncoding genome significantly outnumber those that map to protein-coding regions. Although our understanding of noncoding driver SMs is very rudimentary, it is likely that disruption of regulatory elements in the genome is an important, yet largely underexplored mechanism by which somatic mutations contribute to cancer development. The expression of most human genes is controlled by multiple enhancers, and therefore, it is conceivable that regulatory SMs are distributed across different enhancers of the same target gene. Yet, to date, most statistical searches for regulatory SMs have considered each regulatory element individually, which may reduce statistical power. The first challenge in considering the cumulative activity of all the enhancers of a gene as a single unit is to map enhancers to their target promoters. Such mapping defines for each gene its set of regulating enhancers (termed "set of regulatory elements" (SRE)). Considering multiple enhancers of each gene as one unit holds great promise for enhancing the identification of driver regulatory SMs. However, the success of this approach is greatly dependent on the availability of comprehensive and accurate enhancer-promoter (E-P) maps. To date, the discovery of driver regulatory SMs has been hindered by insufficient sample sizes and statistical analyses that often considered each regulatory element separately. In this study, we analyzed more than 2,500 whole-genome sequence (WGS) samples provided by The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and The International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) in order to identify such driver regulatory SMs. Our analyses took into account the combinatorial aspect of gene regulation by considering all the enhancers that control the same target gene as one unit, based on E-P maps from three genomics resources. The identification of candidate driver noncoding SMs is based on their recurrence. We searched for SREs of genes that are "hotspots" for SMs (that is, they accumulate SMs at a significantly elevated rate). To test the statistical significance of recurrence of SMs within a gene's SRE, we used both global and local background mutation rates. Using this approach, we detected - in seven different cancer types - numerous "hotspots" for SMs. To support the functional significance of these recurrent noncoding SMs, we further examined their association with the expression level of their target gene (using gene expression data provided by the ICGC and TCGA for samples that were also analyzed by WGS).

Keywords: cancer genomics, enhancers, noncoding genome, regulatory elements

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Swarali Hingse, Shraddha Digole, Uday Annapure

Abstract:

The present study investigates the biotransformation of ferulic acid to vanillin by Pycnoporus cinnabarinus and its optimization using one-factor-at-a-time method as well as statistical approach. Effect of various physicochemical parameters and medium components was studied using one-factor-at-a-time method. Screening of the significant factors was carried out using L25 Taguchi orthogonal array and then these selected significant factors were further optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). Significant media components obtained using Taguchi L25 orthogonal array were glucose, KH2PO4 and yeast extract. Further, a Box Behnken design was used to investigate the interactive effects of the three most significant media components. The final medium obtained after optimization using RSM containing glucose (34.89 g/L), diammonium tartrate (1 g/L), yeast extract (1.47 g/L), MgSO4•7H2O (0.5 g/L), KH2PO4 (0.15 g/L), and CaCl2•2H2O (20 mg/L) resulted in amplification of vanillin production from 30.88 mg/L to 187.63 mg/L.

Keywords: ferulic acid, pycnoporus cinnabarinus, response surface methodology, vanillin

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Raymond K. Dziwornu

Abstract:

Lending rate of agriculture loan has persistently been high and attributed to risk in the sector. This study examined how food inflation and agriculture lending rate react to each other in Ghana using vector autoregressive approach. Quarterly data from 2006 to 2018 was obtained from the Bank of Ghana quarterly bulletin and the Ghana Statistical Service reports. The study found that a positive standard deviation shock to food inflation causes lending rate of agriculture loan to react negatively in the short run, but positively and steadily in the long run. This suggests the need to direct appropriate policy measures to reduce food inflation and consequently, the cost of credit to the agricultural sector for its growth.

Keywords: food inflation, agriculture, lending rate, vector autoregressive, Ghana

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Jerry Q. Cheng

Abstract:

Currently, in analyzing large-scale recurrent event data, there are many challenges such as memory limitations, unscalable computing time, etc. In this research, a divide-and-conquer method is proposed using parametric frailty models. Specifically, the data is randomly divided into many subsets, and the maximum likelihood estimator from each individual data set is obtained. Then a weighted method is proposed to combine these individual estimators as the final estimator. It is shown that this divide-and-conquer estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the estimator based on the full data. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of this proposed method. This approach is applied to a large real dataset of repeated heart failure hospitalizations.

Keywords: big data analytics, divide-and-conquer, recurrent event data, statistical computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 150