Search results for: reliable facility location model

Authors: Seung-Yeon Kim

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The Ising model, consisting magnetic spins, is the simplest system showing phase transitions and critical phenomena at finite temperatures. The Ising model has played a central role in our understanding of phase transitions and critical phenomena. Also, the Ising model explains the gas-liquid phase transitions accurately. However, the Ising model in a nonzero magnetic field has been one of the most intriguing and outstanding unsolved problems. We study analytically the partition function zeros in the complex magnetic-field plane and the Yang-Lee edge singularity of the infinite-range Ising model in an external magnetic field. In addition, we compare the Yang-Lee edge singularity of the infinite-range Ising model with that of the square-lattice Ising model in an external magnetic field.

Keywords: Ising ferromagnet, magnetic field, partition function zeros, Yang-Lee edge singularity

Procedia PDF Downloads 734

Authors: Sabiu Bala Muhammad, Rosli Saad

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Multiple linear regression (MLR) models for fast estimation of true subsurface resistivity from apparent resistivity field measurements are developed and assessed in this study. The parameters investigated were apparent resistivity (ρₐ), horizontal location (X) and depth (Z) of measurement as the independent variables; and true resistivity (ρₜ) as the dependent variable. To achieve linearity in both resistivity variables, datasets were first transformed into logarithmic domain following diagnostic checks of normality of the dependent variable and heteroscedasticity to ensure accurate models. Four MLR models were developed based on hierarchical combination of the independent variables. The generated MLR coefficients were applied to another data set to estimate ρₜ values for validation. Contours of the estimated ρₜ values were plotted and compared to the observed data plots at the colour scale and blanking for visual assessment. The accuracy of the models was assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), standard error (SE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (wMAPE). It is concluded that the MLR models can estimate ρₜ for with high level of accuracy.

Keywords: apparent resistivity, depth, horizontal location, multiple linear regression, true resistivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Raymond K. Jonkers

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The present study investigated approaches and techniques to enhance strategic management governance and decision making within the framework of a performance-based balanced scorecard. The review of best practices from strategic, program, process, and systems engineering management provided for a holistic approach toward effective outcome-based capability management. One technique, based on factorial experimental design methods, was used to develop an empirical model. This model predicted the degree of capability effectiveness and is dependent on controlled system input variables and their weightings. These variables represent business performance measures, captured within a strategic balanced scorecard. The weighting of these measures enhances the ability to quantify causal relationships within balanced scorecard strategy maps. The focus in this study was on the performance of tangible assets within the scorecard rather than the traditional approach of assessing performance of intangible assets such as knowledge and technology. Tangible assets are represented in this study as physical systems, which may be thought of as being aboard a ship or within a production facility. The measures assigned to these systems include project funding for upgrades against demand, system certifications achieved against those required, preventive maintenance to corrective maintenance ratios, and material support personnel capacity against that required for supporting respective systems. The resultant scorecard is viewed as complimentary to the traditional balanced scorecard for program and performance management. The benefits from these scorecards are realized through the quantified state of operational capabilities or outcomes. These capabilities are also weighted in terms of priority for each distinct system measure and aggregated and visualized in terms of overall state of capabilities achieved. This study proposes the use of interactive controls within the scorecard as a technique to enhance development of alternative solutions in decision making. These interactive controls include those for assigning capability priorities and for adjusting system performance measures, thus providing for what-if scenarios and options in strategic decision-making. In this holistic approach to capability management, several cross functional processes were highlighted as relevant amongst the different management disciplines. In terms of assessing an organization’s ability to adopt this approach, consideration was given to the P3M3 management maturity model.

Keywords: management, systems, performance, scorecard

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Hamed Yousefi, Farnaz Mohammadi, Niloufar Mirian, Navid Amini

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Investigating possible capacities of visual functions where adapted mechanisms can enhance the capability of sports trainees is a promising area of research, not only from the cognitive viewpoint but also in terms of unlimited applications in sports training. In this paper, the visual evoked potential (VEP) and event-related potential (ERP) signals of amateur and trained volleyball players in a pilot study were processed. Two groups of amateur and trained subjects are asked to imagine themselves in the state of receiving a ball while they are shown a simulated volleyball field. The proposed method is based on a set of time-frequency features using algorithms such as Gabor filter, continuous wavelet transform, and a multi-stage wavelet decomposition that are extracted from VEP signals that can be indicative of being amateur or trained. The linear discriminant classifier achieves the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 100% when the average of the repetitions of the signal corresponding to the task is used. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of a fast, robust, and reliable feature/model determination as a neurofeedback parameter to be utilized for improving the volleyball players’ performance. The proposed measure has potential applications in brain-computer interface technology where a real-time biomarker is needed.

Keywords: visual evoked potential, time-frequency feature extraction, short-time Fourier transform, event-related spectrum potential classification, linear discriminant analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Younes El Khchine, Mohammed Sriti

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×10⁵ and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, that causes earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, S809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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Authors: Sharon Hovav, Ilya Levner, Oren Nahum, Istvan Szabo

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In modern large-scale logistic centers (e.g., big automated warehouses), complex logistic operations performed by human staff (pickers) need to be coordinated with the operations of automated facilities (robots, conveyors, cranes, lifts, flow racks, etc.). The efficiency of advanced logistic centers strongly depends on optimizing picking technologies in synch with the facility/product layout, as well as on optimal distribution of material flows (products) in the system. The challenge is to develop a mathematical operations research (OR) tool that will optimize system cost-effectiveness. In this work, we propose a model that describes an automatic logistic center consisting of a set of workstations located at several galleries (floors), with each station containing a known number of flow racks. The requirements of each product and the working capacity of stations served by a given set of workers (pickers) are assumed as predetermined. The goal of the model is to maximize system efficiency. The proposed model includes two echelons. The first is the setting of the (optimal) number of workstations needed to create the total processing/logistic system, subject to picker capacities. The second echelon deals with the assignment of the products to the workstations and flow racks, aimed to achieve maximal throughputs of picked products over the entire system given picker capacities and budget constraints. The solutions to the problems at the two echelons interact to balance the overall load in the flow racks and maximize overall efficiency. We have developed an operations research model within each echelon. In the first echelon, the problem of calculating the optimal number of workstations is formulated as a non-standard bin-packing problem with capacity constraints for each bin. The problem arising in the second echelon is presented as a constrained product-workstation-flow rack assignment problem with non-standard mini-max criteria in which the workload maximum is calculated across all workstations in the center and the exterior minimum is calculated across all possible product-workstation-flow rack assignments. The OR problems arising in each echelon are proved to be NP-hard. Consequently, we find and develop heuristic and approximation solution algorithms based on exploiting and improving local optimums. The LC model considered in this work is highly dynamic and is recalculated periodically based on updated demand forecasts that reflect market trends, technological changes, seasonality, and the introduction of new items. The suggested two-echelon approach and the min-max balancing scheme are shown to work effectively on illustrative examples and real-life logistic data.

Keywords: logistics center, product-workstation, assignment, maximum performance, load balancing, fast algorithm

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Authors: Ng Yen, Shafii Khamis, Rehir Bin Dahalan

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Cyclotrons in the energy range 10-30 MeV are widely used for the production of clincally relevant radiosiotopes used in positron emission tomography (PET) nuclear imaging. Positron emmision tomography is a powerful nuclear imaging tool that produces high quality 3-dimentional images of functional processes of body. The advantage of PET among all other imaging devices is that it allows the study of an impressive array of discrete biochemical and physiologic processes, within a single imaging session. The number of PET scanner increases every year globally due to high clinical demand. However, not all PET centers can afford a cyclotron, due to the expense associated with operation of an in-house cyclotron. Therefore, current research has also focused on the development of parent/daughter generators that can reliably provide PET nuclides. These generators (68Ge/68Ga generator, 62Zn/62Cu, 82Sr/82Rb, etc) can provide even short-lived radionuclides at any time on demand, without the need of an ‘in-house cyclotron’. The parent isotope is produced at a cyclotron/reactor facility, and can be shipped to remote clinical sites (regionally/overseas), where the daughter isotope is eluted, a model similar to the 99Mo/99mTc generator system. The specific aim for this presentation is to talk about the potential for both of the cyclotron and generator-produced PET radiopharmaceuticals used in clinical imaging.

Keywords: positron emission tomography, radiopharmaceutical, cyclotron, generator

Procedia PDF Downloads 478

Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: X. S. Wu, H. Jia, P. H. Qian, Z. Zhang, H. L. Cai, F. M. Zhang

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A bipolar resistance switching behaviour is detected for a Ti/TiO2-x/Au memristor device, which is fabricated by a masked designed magnetic sputtering. The current dependence of voltage indicates the curve changes slowly and continuously. When voltage pulses are applied to the device, the set and reset processes maintains linearity, which is used to simulate the synapses. We argue that the conduction mechanism of the device is from the oxygen vacancy channel model, and the resistance of the device change slowly due to the reaction between the titanium electrode and the intermediate layer and the existence of a large number of oxygen vacancies in the intermediate layer. Then, Hopfield neural network is constructed to simulate the behaviour of neural network in image processing, and the accuracy rate is more than 98%. This shows that titanium dioxide memristor has a broad application prospect in high performance neural network simulation.

Keywords: memristor fabrication, neuromorphic computing, bionic synaptic application, TiO₂-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Jean Berger, Mohamed Barkaoui

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Discrete search path planning in time-constrained uncertain environment relying upon imperfect sensors is known to be hard, and current problem-solving techniques proposed so far to compute near real-time efficient path plans are mainly bounded to provide a few move solutions. A new information-theoretic –based open-loop decision model explicitly incorporating false alarm sensor readings, to solve a single agent military logistics search-and-delivery path planning problem with anticipated feedback is presented. The decision model consists in minimizing expected entropy considering anticipated possible observation outcomes over a given time horizon. The model captures uncertainty associated with observation events for all possible scenarios. Entropy represents a measure of uncertainty about the searched target location. Feedback information resulting from possible sensor observations outcomes along the projected path plan is exploited to update anticipated unit target occupancy beliefs. For the first time, a compact belief update formulation is generalized to explicitly include false positive observation events that may occur during plan execution. A novel genetic algorithm is then proposed to efficiently solve search path planning, providing near-optimal solutions for practical realistic problem instances. Given the run-time performance of the algorithm, natural extension to a closed-loop environment to progressively integrate real visit outcomes on a rolling time horizon can be easily envisioned. Computational results show the value of the approach in comparison to alternate heuristics.

Keywords: search path planning, false alarm, search-and-delivery, entropy, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Hadi Chahal, Irini Djeran-Maigre

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This paper focuses on the hydro-mechanical behavior of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) polluted sediments when stored in landfills and the interaction between PCBs and geosynthetic clay liners (GCL) with respect to hydraulic performance of the liner and the overall performance and stability of landfills. A European decree, adopted in the French regulation forbids the reintroducing of contaminated dredged sediments containing more than 0,64mg/kg Σ 7 PCBs to rivers. At these concentrations, sediments are considered hazardous and a remediation process must be adopted to prevent the release of PCBs into the environment. Dredging and landfilling polluted sediments is considered an eco-environmental remediation solution. French regulations authorize the storage of PCBs contaminated components with less than 50mg/kg in municipal solid waste facilities. Contaminant migration via leachate may be possible. The interactions between PCBs contaminated sediments and the GCL barrier present in the bottom of a landfill for security confinement are not known. Moreover, the hydro-mechanical behavior of stored sediments may affect the performance and the stability of the landfill. In this article, hydro-mechanical characterization of the polluted sediment is presented. This characterization led to predict the behavior of the sediment at the storage site. Chemical testing showed that the concentration of PCBs in sediment samples is between 1.7 and 2,0 mg/kg. Physical characterization showed that the sediment is organic silty sand soil (%Silt=65, %Sand=27, %OM=8) characterized by a high plasticity index (Ip=37%). Permeability tests using permeameter and filter press showed that sediment permeability is in the order of 10-9 m/s. Compressibility tests showed that the sediment is a very compressible soil with Cc=0,53 and Cα =0,0086. In addition, effects of PCB on the swelling behavior of bentonite were studied and the hydraulic performance of the GCL in interaction with PCBs was examined. Swelling tests showed that PCBs don’t affect the swelling behavior of bentonite. Permeability tests were conducted on a 1.0 m pilot scale experiment, simulating a storage facility. PCBs contaminated sediments were directly placed over a passive barrier containing GCL to study the influence of the direct contact of polluted sediment leachate with the GCL. An automatic water system has been designed to simulate precipitation. Effluent quantity and quality have been examined. The sediment settlements and the water level in the sediment have been monitored. The results showed that desiccation affected the behavior of the sediment in the pilot test and that laboratory tests alone are not sufficient to predict the behavior of the sediment in landfill facility. Furthermore, the concentration of PCB in the sediment leachate was very low ( < 0,013 µg/l) and that the permeability of the GCL was affected by other components present in the sediment leachate. Desiccation and cracks were the main parameters that affected the hydro-mechanical behavior of the sediment in the pilot test. In order to reduce these infects, the polluted sediment should be stored at a water content inferior to its shrinkage limit (w=39%). We also propose to conduct other pilot tests with the maximum concentration of PCBs allowed in municipal solid waste facility of 50 mg/kg.

Keywords: geosynthetic clay liners, landfill, polychlorinated biphenyl, polluted dredged materials

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

Procedia PDF Downloads 542

Authors: Manikanta Prasad Banda, Che Hua Yang

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Anti-symmetric wave propagation along the particle motion of the wedge waves is known as anti-symmetric flexural (ASF) modes which travel along the wedge tips of the mid-plane apex with a small truncation. This paper investigates the characteristics of the ASF modes propagation with the wedge tip crack. The simulation and experimental results obtained by a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element model explained the contact acoustic non-linear (CAN) behavior in explicit dynamics in ABAQUS and the ultrasonic non-destructive testing (NDT) method is used for defect detection. The effect of various parameters on its high and low-level conversion modes are known for complex reflections and transmissions involved with direct reflections and transmissions. The results are used to predict the location of crack through complex transmission and reflection coefficients.

Keywords: ASF mode, crack detection, finite elements method, laser ultrasound technique, wedge waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Elena B. Cherepetskaya, Alexander A. Karabutov, Natalia B. Podymova, Ivan Sas

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Nonlinear evolution of broadband ultrasonic pulses passed through the rock specimens is studied using the apparatus ‘GEOSCAN-02M’. Ultrasonic pulses are excited by the pulses of Q-switched Nd:YAG laser with the time duration of 10 ns and with the energy of 260 mJ. This energy can be reduced to 20 mJ by some light filters. The laser beam radius did not exceed 5 mm. As a result of the absorption of the laser pulse in the special material – the optoacoustic generator–the pulses of longitudinal ultrasonic waves are excited with the time duration of 100 ns and with the maximum pressure amplitude of 10 MPa. The immersion technique is used to measure the parameters of these ultrasonic pulses passed through a specimen, the immersion liquid is distilled water. The reference pulse passed through the cell with water has the compression and the rarefaction phases. The amplitude of the rarefaction phase is five times lower than that of the compression phase. The spectral range of the reference pulse reaches 10 MHz. The cubic-shaped specimens of the Karelian gabbro are studied with the rib length 3 cm. The ultimate strength of the specimens by the uniaxial compression is (300±10) MPa. As the reference pulse passes through the area of the specimen without cracks the compression phase decreases and the rarefaction one increases due to diffraction and scattering of ultrasound, so the ratio of these phases becomes 2.3:1. After preloading some horizontal cracks appear in the specimens. Their location is found by one-sided scanning of the specimen using the backward mode detection of the ultrasonic pulses reflected from the structure defects. Using the computer processing of these signals the images are obtained of the cross-sections of the specimens with cracks. By the increase of the reference pulse amplitude from 0.1 MPa to 5 MPa the nonlinear transformation of the ultrasonic pulse passed through the specimen with horizontal cracks results in the decrease by 2.5 times of the amplitude of the rarefaction phase and in the increase of its duration by 2.1 times. By the increase of the reference pulse amplitude from 5 MPa to 10 MPa the time splitting of the phases is observed for the bipolar pulse passed through the specimen. The compression and rarefaction phases propagate with different velocities. These features of the powerful broadband ultrasonic pulses passed through the rock specimens can be described by the hysteresis model of Preisach-Mayergoyz and can be used for the location of cracks in the optically opaque materials.

Keywords: cracks, geological materials, nonlinear evolution of ultrasonic pulses, rock

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Authors: Aditya Jayadas

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During a pandemic like the one we are in with COVID-19, older adults, especially those who live in a senior retirement facility, experience even bigger challenges as they are often dependent on other individuals for care. Many older adults are dependent on caregivers to assist with their instrumented activities of daily living (IADL). With travel restrictions imposed during a pandemic, there is a critical need to ensure that older adults who are homebound continue to be able to participate in physical exercise, cognitive exercise, and social interaction programs. The objective of this study was to better understand the challenges that older adults faced during the pandemic and what they were doing specifically to cope with the pandemic physically, mentally, and through social interaction. A focus group was conducted with ten older adults (age: 82.70 ± 7.81 years; nine female and one male) who resided in a senior retirement facility. During the course of one hour, seven open-ended questions were posed to the participants: a) What has changed in your life since the start of the pandemic, b) What has been most challenging for you, c) What are you doing to take care of yourself, d) Are you doing anything specifically as it relates to your physical health, e) Are you doing anything specifically as it relates to your mental health, f) What did you do for social interaction during the pandemic, g) Is there anything else you would like to share as it relates to your experience during the pandemic. The focus group session was audio-taped, and verbatim transcripts were created to evaluate the responses of the participants. The transcript consisted of 4,698 words and 293 lines of text. The data was analyzed using content analysis. The unit of analysis was the text from the audio recordings that were transcribed. From the review of the transcribed text, themes and sub-themes were identified, along with salient quotes under each sub-theme. The major themes that emerged from the data were: having a routine, engaging in activities, attending exercise classes, use of technology, family, community, and prayer. The quotes under the sub-themes provided compelling evidence of how older adults coped during the pandemic while addressing the challenges they faced and developing strategies to address their physical and mental health while interacting with others. Lessons learned from this focus group can be used to develop specific physical exercise, cognitive exercise, and social interaction programs that benefit the health and well-being of older adults.

Keywords: cognitive exercise, pandemic, physical exercise, social interaction

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Authors: Freddy Houndekindo

Abstract:

A study was carried out to evaluate the flood risk in the district of Malanville located along the Niger River. The knowledge produce by this study is useful in the implementation of adaptation and/or mitigation measures to alleviate the impact of the flooding on the populations, the economy and the environment. Over the course of the study, the lack of data in the area of interest has been one of the main challenges encountered. Therefore, in the analysis of the flood hazard different sources of remotely sensed data were used. Moreover, the flood hazard was analysed by applying a 1D hydraulic model: HEC-RAS. After setting up the model for the study area, the different flood scenarios considered were simulated and mapped using ArcGIS and the HEC-GEORAS extension. The result of the simulation gave information about the inundated areas and the water depths at each location. From the analysis of the flood hazard, it was found that between 47% and 50% of the total area of the district of Malanville would be flooded in the different flood scenarios considered, and the water depth varies between 1 and 7 m. The townships of Malanville most at risk of flooding are Momkassa and Galiel, located in a high-risk and very high-risk zone, respectively. Furthermore, the assessment of the flood risk showed that the most vulnerable sector to the inundations is the agricultural sector. Indeed, the cultivated floodplains were the most affected areas by the floodwater in every flood scenarios. Knowing that a high proportion of the population of the district relies on their farmlands in these floodplains for their livelihood, the floods pose a challenge not only to the food security in the area but also to its development.

Keywords: flood risk management, Niger, remote sensing, vulnerability

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: Eti Dwi Wiraningsih, Folashade Agusto, Lina Aryati, Syamsuddin Toaha, Suzanne Lenhart, Widodo, Willy Govaerts

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of rabies virus in the wild dogs-domestic dogs-human zoonotic cycle. The effect of vaccination and culling in dogs is considered on the model, then the stability was analysed to get basic reproduction number. We use the next generation matrix method and Routh-Hurwitz test to analyze the stability of the Disease-Free Equilibrium and Endemic Equilibrium of this model.

Keywords: stability analysis, rabies model, vaccination effect, culling in dogs

Procedia PDF Downloads 623

Authors: M. N. Nwodo, Y. P. Cheng, N. H. Minh

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In the process of recovering oil in weak sandstone formations, the strength of sandstones around the wellbore is weakened due to the increase of effective stress/load from the completion activities around the cavity. The weakened and de-bonded sandstone may be eroded away by the produced fluid, which is termed sand production. It is one of the major trending subjects in the petroleum industry because of its significant negative impacts, as well as some observed positive impacts. For efficient sand management therefore, there has been need for a reliable study tool to understand the mechanism of sanding. One method of studying sand production is the use of the widely recognized Discrete Element Method (DEM), Particle Flow Code (PFC3D) which represents sands as granular individual elements bonded together at contact points. However, there is limited knowledge of the particle-scale behavior of the weak sandstone, and the parameters that affect sanding. This paper aims to investigate the reliability of using PFC3D and a simple Darcy flow in understanding the sand production behavior of a weak sandstone. An isotropic tri-axial test on a weak oil sandstone sample was first simulated at a confining stress of 1MPa to calibrate and validate the parallel bond models of PFC3D using a 10m height and 10m diameter solid cylindrical model. The effect of the confining stress on the number of bonds failure was studied using this cylindrical model. With the calibrated data and sample material properties obtained from the tri-axial test, simulations without and with fluid flow were carried out to check on the effect of Darcy flow on bonds failure using the same model geometry. The fluid flow network comprised of every four particles connected with tetrahedral flow pipes with a central pore or flow domain. Parametric studies included the effects of confining stress, and fluid pressure; as well as validating flow rate – permeability relationship to verify Darcy’s fluid flow law. The effect of model size scaling on sanding was also investigated using 4m height, 2m diameter model. The parallel bond model successfully calibrated the sample’s strength of 4.4MPa, showing a sharp peak strength before strain-softening, similar to the behavior of real cemented sandstones. There seems to be an exponential increasing relationship for the bigger model, but a curvilinear shape for the smaller model. The presence of the Darcy flow induced tensile forces and increased the number of broken bonds. For the parametric studies, flow rate has a linear relationship with permeability at constant pressure head. The higher the fluid flow pressure, the higher the number of broken bonds/sanding. The DEM PFC3D is a promising tool to studying the micromechanical behavior of cemented sandstones.

Keywords: discrete element method, fluid flow, parametric study, sand production/bonds failure

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Authors: Lakrim Abderrazak, Tahri Driss

Abstract:

This paper presents a new behavioural electrothermal model of power Silicon Carbide (SiC) MOSFET under SPICE. This model is based on the MOS model level 1 of SPICE, in which phenomena such as Drain Leakage Current IDSS, On-State Resistance RDSon, gate Threshold voltage VGSth, the transconductance (gfs), I-V Characteristics Body diode, temperature-dependent and self-heating are included and represented using behavioural blocks ABM (Analog Behavioural Models) of Spice library. This ultimately makes this model flexible and easily can be integrated into the various Spice -based simulation softwares. The internal junction temperature of the component is calculated on the basis of the thermal model through the electric power dissipated inside and its thermal impedance in the form of the localized Foster canonical network. The model parameters are extracted from manufacturers' data (curves data sheets) using polynomial interpolation with the method of simulated annealing (S A) and weighted least squares (WLS). This model takes into account the various important phenomena within transistor. The effectiveness of the presented model has been verified by Spice simulation results and as well as by data measurement for SiC MOS transistor C2M0025120D CREE (1200V, 90A).

Keywords: SiC power MOSFET, DC electro-thermal model, ABM Spice library, SPICE modelling, behavioural model, C2M0025120D CREE.

Procedia PDF Downloads 572

Authors: Younes El Khchine

Abstract:

A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×105 and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, causing earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, s809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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Authors: Santhosh Srinivasan, Vipul Garhiya, Shahul Hamid Khan

Abstract:

Environmental performance along with social performance is becoming vital factors for industries to achieve global standards. With a good environmental policy global industries are differentiating them from their competitors. This paper concentrates on multi stage, multi product and multi period manufacturing network. Single objective mathematical models for a total cost for the entire forward supply chain and reverse chain are considered. Here five different problems are considered by varying the number of facilities for illustration. M-MOGA, Shuffle Frog Leaping algorithm (SFLA) and CPLEX are used for finding the optimal solution for the mathematical model.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, genetic algorithm, random search, multi period, green supply chain

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu,

Abstract:

We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a stabilizing parameter called θ using hyperbolic sine function into the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while using testing the independence of the error term using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE, and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Monomolecular growth models over its source model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

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Authors: Hounyèmè Romuald, Mama Daouda, Argillier Christine

Abstract:

The present study focused on the use of benthic macrofauna to define the reference state of an anthropized lagoon (Nokoué-Benin) from the responses of relevant metrics to proxies. The approach used is a combination of a joint species distribution model and Bayesian networks. The joint species distribution model was used to select the relevant metrics and generate posterior probabilities that were then converted into posterior response probabilities for each of the quality classes (pressure levels), which will constitute the conditional probability tables allowing the establishment of the probabilistic graph representing the different causal relationships between metrics and pressure proxies. For the definition of the reference thresholds, the predicted responses for low-pressure levels were read via probability density diagrams. Observations collected during high and low water periods spanning 03 consecutive years (2004-2006), sampling 33 macroinvertebrate taxa present at all seasons and sampling points, and measurements of 14 environmental parameters were used as application data. The study demonstrated reliable inferences, selection of 07 relevant metrics and definition of quality thresholds for each environmental parameter. The relevance of the metrics as well as the reference thresholds for ecological assessment despite the small sample size, suggests the potential for wider applicability of the approach for aquatic ecosystem monitoring and assessment programs in developing countries generally characterized by a lack of monitoring data.

Keywords: pressure proxies, bayesian inference, bioindicators, acadjas, functional traits

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Authors: Tiexin Wang, Sebastien Truptil, Frederick Benaben

Abstract:

Model transformation, as a pivotal aspect of Model-driven engineering, attracts more and more attentions both from researchers and practitioners. Many domains (enterprise engineering, software engineering, knowledge engineering, etc.) use model transformation principles and practices to serve to their domain specific problems; furthermore, model transformation could also be used to fulfill the gap between different domains: by sharing and exchanging knowledge. Since model transformation has been widely used, there comes new requirement on it: effectively and efficiently define the transformation process and reduce manual effort that involved in. This paper presents an automatic model transformation methodology based on semantic and syntactic comparisons, and focuses particularly on granularity issue that existed in transformation process. Comparing to the traditional model transformation methodologies, this methodology serves to a general purpose: cross-domain methodology. Semantic and syntactic checking measurements are combined into a refined transformation process, which solves the granularity issue. Moreover, semantic and syntactic comparisons are supported by software tool; manual effort is replaced in this way.

Keywords: automatic model transformation, granularity issue, model-driven engineering, semantic and syntactic comparisons

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Authors: Leah Li Echiverri, Haoyu Shang, Yue Li

Abstract:

Wenzhou-Kean University (WKU) is a Sino-US Cooperative University in China. It practices the English Immersion Program (EIP), where all the courses are taught in English. Class discussions and presentations are pervasively interwoven in designing students’ learning experiences. This WKU model has brought positive influences on students and is in some way ahead of traditional college English majors. However, literature to support the perceptions on the positive outcomes of this teaching and learning model remain scarce. The distinctive profile of Chinese-ESL students in an English Medium of Instruction (EMI) environment contributes further to the scarcity of literature compared to existing studies conducted among ESL learners in Western educational settings. Hence, the study investigated the students’ perceptions towards the English Immersion Program and determine how it influences Chinese-ESL students’ academic performance (AP). This research can provide empirical data that would be helpful to educators, teaching practitioners, university administrators, and other researchers in making informed decisions when developing curricular reforms, instructional and pedagogical methods, and university-wide support programs using this educational model. The purpose of the study was to establish the relationship between the English Immersion Program and Academic Performance among Chinese-ESL students enrolled at WKU for the academic year 2020-2021. Course length, immersion location, course type, and instructional design were the constructs of the English immersion program. English language learning, learning efficiency, and class participation were used to measure academic performance. Descriptive-correlational design was used in this cross-sectional research project. A quantitative approach for data analysis was applied to determine the relationship between the English immersion program and Chinese-ESL students’ academic performance. The research was conducted at WKU; a Chinese-American jointly established higher educational institution located in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province. Convenience, random, and snowball sampling of 283 students, a response rate of 10.5%, were applied to represent the WKU student population. The questionnaire was posted through the survey website named Wenjuanxing and shared to QQ or WeChat. Cronbach’s alpha was used to test the reliability of the research instrument. Findings revealed that when professors integrate technology (PowerPoint, videos, and audios) in teaching, students pay more attention. This contributes to the acquisition of more professional knowledge in their major courses. As to course immersion, students perceive WKU as a good place to study, providing them a high degree of confidence to talk with their professors in English. This also contributes to their English fluency and better pronunciation in their communication. In the construct of designing instruction, the use of pictures, video clips, and professors’ non-verbal communication, and demonstration of concern for students encouraged students to be more active in-class participation. Findings on course length and academic performance indicated that students’ perception regarding taking courses during fall and spring terms can moderately contribute to their academic performance. In conclusion, the findings revealed a significantly strong positive relationship between course type, immersion location, instructional design, and academic performance.

Keywords: class participation, English immersion program, English language learning, learning efficiency

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Authors: R. Farhoud, G. Hermand, S. Delepine-lesoille

Abstract:

Future underground facility of French radioactive waste disposal, named Cigeo, is designed to store intermediate and high level - long-lived French radioactive waste. Intermediate level waste cells are tunnel-like, about 400m length and 65 m² section, equipped with several concrete layers, which can be grouted in situ or composed of tunnel elements pre-grouted. The operating space into cells, to allow putting or removing waste containers, should be monitored for several decades without any maintenance. To provide the required information, design was performed and tested in situ in Andra’s underground laboratory (URL) at 500m under the surface. Based on distributed optic fiber sensors (OFS) and backscattered Brillouin for strain and Raman for temperature interrogation technics, the design consists of 2 loops of OFS, at 2 different radiuses, around the monitored section (Orthoradiale strains) and longitudinally. Strains measured by distributed OFS cables were compared to classical vibrating wire extensometers (VWE) and platinum probes (Pt). The OFS cables were composed of 2 cables sensitive to strains and temperatures and one only for temperatures. All cables were connected, between sensitive part and instruments, to hybrid cables to reduce cost. The connection has been made according to 2 technics: splicing fibers in situ after installation or preparing each fiber with a connector and only plugging them together in situ. Another challenge was installing OFS cables along a tunnel mad in several parts, without interruption along several parts. First success consists of the survival rate of sensors after installation and quality of measurements. Indeed, 100% of OFS cables, intended for long-term monitoring, survived installation. Few new configurations were tested with relative success. Measurements obtained were very promising. Indeed, after 3 years of data, no difference was observed between cables and connection methods of OFS and strains fit well with VWE and Pt placed at the same location. Data, from Brillouin instrument sensitive to strains and temperatures, were compensated with data provided by Raman instrument only sensitive to temperature and into a separated fiber. These results provide confidence in the next steps of the qualification processes which consists of testing several data treatment approach for direct analyses.

Keywords: monitoring, fiber optic, sensor, data treatment

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Authors: Razieh Khalafi

Abstract:

The brain is the information processing centre of the human body. Stimuli in the form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research, we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modelling of EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for modelling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, EEG signal

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Authors: Younes El Khchine, Mohammed Sriti

Abstract:

A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds number by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using γ-Reθt turbulence model. Two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×105 and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of laminar separation bubble and aerodynamic performances of wind turbine. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerate transition process and the turbulent reattachment point move closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase of the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to moves upstream to leading edge of the airfoil that causes earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, S809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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