Search results for: modelling and simulation

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: G. V. Novikov, V. S. Sivozhelezov, S. S. Kolesnikov, K. V. Shaitan

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The study reports about the influence of binding of orthosteric ligands as well as point mutations on the conformational dynamics of β-2-adrenoreceptor. Using molecular dynamics simulation we found that there was a little fraction of active states of the receptor in its apo (ligand free) ensemble corresponded to its constitutive activity. Analysis of MD trajectories indicated that such spontaneous activation of the receptor is accompanied by the motion in intracellular part of its alpha-helices. Thus receptor’s constitutive activity directly results from its conformational dynamics. On the other hand the binding of a full agonist resulted in a significant shift of the initial equilibrium towards its active state. Finally, the binding of the inverse agonist stabilized the receptor in its inactive state. It is likely that the binding of inverse agonists might be a universal way of constitutive activity inhibition in vivo. Our results indicate that ligand binding redistribute pre-existing conformational degrees of freedom (in accordance to the Monod-Wyman-Changeux-Model) of the receptor rather than cause induced fit in it. Therefore, the ensemble of biologically relevant receptor conformations is encoded in its spatial structure, and individual conformations from that ensemble might be used by the cell in conformity with the physiological behaviour.

Keywords: seven-transmembrane receptors, constitutive activity, activation, x-ray crystallography, principal component analysis, molecular dynamics simulation

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Authors: Farzaneh Khorram, Xavier Emery

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In this paper, it is aimed to create a crushing consumption energy (CCE) block model and determine the blocks with the potential to have the maximum grinding process energy consumption for the study area. For this purpose, a joint estimate (co-kriging) and joint simulation (turning band method and plurigaussian methods) to predict the CCE based on its correlation with SAG power index (SPI), A×B, and ball mill bond work Index (BWI). The analysis shows that TBCOSIM and plurigaussian have the more realistic results compared to cokriging. It seems logical due to the nature of the data geometallurgical and the linearity of the kriging method and the smoothing effect of kriging.

Keywords: plurigaussian, turning band, cokriging, geometallurgy

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Authors: Aymen Laadhari

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The cardiovascular system is centered on the heart and is characterized by a very complex structure with different physical scales in space (e.g. micrometers for erythrocytes and centimeters for organs) and time (e.g. milliseconds for human brain activity and several years for development of some pathologies). The development and numerical implementation of mathematical models of the cardiovascular system is a tremendously challenging topic at the theoretical and computational levels, inducing consequently a growing interest over the past decade. The accurate computational investigations in both healthy and pathological cases of processes related to the functioning of the human cardiovascular system can be of great potential in tackling several problems of clinical relevance and in improving the diagnosis of specific diseases. In this talk, we focus on the specific task of simulating three particular phenomena related to the cardiovascular system on the macroscopic, mesoscopic and microscopic scales, respectively. Namely, we develop numerical methodologies tailored for the simulation of (i) the haemodynamics (i.e., fluid mechanics of blood) in the aorta and sinus of Valsalva interacting with highly deformable thin leaflets, (ii) the hyperelastic anisotropic behaviour of cardiomyocytes and the influence of calcium concentrations on the contraction of single cells, and (iii) the dynamics of red blood cells in microvasculature. For each problem, we present an appropriate fully Eulerian finite element methodology. We report several numerical examples to address in detail the relevance of the mathematical models in terms of physiological meaning and to illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods.

Keywords: finite element method, cardiovascular system, Eulerian framework, haemodynamics, heart valve, cardiomyocyte, red blood cell

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Authors: Lise Retat, Maria Carmen Huerta, Laura Webber, Franco Sassi

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Background: Intra-generational social mobility (ISM) can be defined as the extent to which individuals change their socio-economic position over a period of time or during their entire life course. The relationship between poor health and ISM is established. Therefore, quantifying the impact that potential health policies have on ISM now and into the future would provide evidence for how social inequality could be reduced. This paper takes the condition of overweight and obesity as an example and estimates the mean earning change per individual if the UK were to introduce policies to effectively reduce overweight and obesity. Methods: The HealthLumen individual-based model was used to estimate the impact of obesity on social mobility measures, such as earnings, occupation, and wealth. The HL tool models each individual's probability of experiencing downward ISM as a result of their overweight and obesity status. For example, one outcome of interest was the cumulative mean earning per person of implementing a policy which would reduce adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030 in the UK. Results: Preliminary analysis showed that by reducing adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030, the cumulative additional mean earnings would be ~1,000 Euro per adult by 2030. Additional analysis will include other social mobility indicators. Conclusions: These projections are important for illustrating the role of health in social mobility and for providing evidence for how health policy can make a difference to social mobility outcomes and, in turn, help to reduce inequality.

Keywords: modelling, social mobility, obesity, health

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Authors: Héctor Rivera-Gómez, Eva Selene Hernández-Gress, Oscar Montaño-Arango, Jose Ramon Corona-Armenta

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This research studies the joint production, maintenance and subcontracting control policy for an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system. Production activities are controlled by a derivation of the Hedging Point Policy, and given that the system is subject to deterioration, it reduces progressively its capacity to satisfy product demand. Multiple deterioration effects are considered, reflected mainly in the quality of the parts produced and the reliability of the machine. Subcontracting is available as support to satisfy product demand; also overhaul maintenance can be conducted to reduce the effects of deterioration. The main objective of the research is to determine simultaneously the production, maintenance and subcontracting rate which minimize the total incurred cost. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed and solved through a simulation-based approach composed of statistical analysis and optimization with the response surface methodology. The obtained results highlight the strong interactions between production, deterioration and quality which justify the development of an integrated model. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented to validate our results.

Keywords: subcontracting, optimal control, deterioration, simulation, production planning

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Authors: A. A. Dare, E. U. Iniegbedion

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Industrial furnaces generally involve enclosures of fire typically initiated by the combustion of gases. The fire leads to temperature distribution inside the enclosure. A proper understanding of the temperature and velocity distribution within the enclosure is often required for optimal design and use of the furnace. This study was therefore directed at numerical modeling of temperature distribution inside an enclosure as typical in a furnace. A mathematical model was developed from the conservation of mass, momentum and energy. The stream function-vorticity formulation of the governing equations was solved by an alternating direction implicit (ADI) finite difference technique. The finite difference formulation obtained were then developed into a computer code. This was used to determine the temperature, velocities, stream function and vorticity. The effect of the wall heat conduction was also considered, by assuming a one-dimensional heat flow through the wall. The computer code (MATLAB program) developed was used for the determination of the aforementioned variables. The results obtained showed that the transient temperature distribution assumed a uniform profile which becomes more chaotic with increasing time. The vertical velocity showed increasing turbulent behavior with time, while the horizontal velocity assumed decreasing laminar behavior with time. All of these behaviours were equally reported in the literature. The developed model has provided understanding of heat transfer process in an industrial furnace.

Keywords: heat source, modelling, enclosure, furnace

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Authors: Babak Safaei, A. M. Fattahi

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In the present study we have investigated axial buckling characteristics of nanocomposite beams reinforced by single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). Various types of beam theories including Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, Timoshenko beam theory and Reddy beam theory were used to analyze the buckling behavior of carbon nanotube-reinforced composite beams. Generalized differential quadrature (GDQ) method was utilized to discretize the governing differential equations along with four commonly used boundary conditions. The material properties of the nanocomposite beams were obtained using molecular dynamic (MD) simulation corresponding to both short-(10,10) SWCNT and long-(10,10) SWCNT composites which were embedded by amorphous polyethylene matrix. Then the results obtained directly from MD simulations were matched with those calculated by the mixture rule to extract appropriate values of carbon nanotube efficiency parameters accounting for the scale-dependent material properties. The selected numerical results were presented to indicate the influences of nanotube volume fractions and end supports on the critical axial buckling loads of nanocomposite beams relevant to long- and short-nanotube composites.

Keywords: nanocomposites, molecular dynamics simulation, axial buckling, generalized differential quadrature (GDQ)

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Authors: Matthew B. Davis, Amit Kumar

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With potentially dangerous impacts of climate change on the horizon, Canada has an opportunity to take a lead role on the international stage to demonstrate how energy use intensity and greenhouse gas emission intensity may be effectively reduced. Through bottom-up modelling of Canada’s energy sector using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software, it can be determined where efforts should to be concentrated to produce the most positive energy management results. By analyzing a provincially integrated Canada, one can develop strategies to minimize the country’s economic downfall while transitioning to lower-emission energy technologies. Canada’s electricity sector plays an important role in accommodating these transitionary technologies as fossil-fuel based power production is prevalent in many parts of the country and is responsible for a large portion (17%) of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. Current findings incorporate an in-depth model of Canada’s current energy supply and demand sectors, as well as a business-as-usual scenario up to the year 2035. This allows for in-depth analysis of energy flow from resource potential, to extraction, to fuel and electricity production, to energy end use and emissions in Canada’s residential, transportation, commercial, institutional, industrial, and agricultural sectors. Bottom-up modelling techniques such as these are useful to critically analyze and compare the various possible scenarios of implementing sustainable energy measures. This work can aid government in creating effective energy and environmental policies, as well as guide industry to what technology or process changes would be most worthwhile to pursue.

Keywords: energy management, LEAP, energy end-use, GHG emissions

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Authors: Margaret Schmuhl, Michelle Cubellis

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Violence against women (VAW) is a widespread social problem affecting nearly two million women in the United States each year. Recently, feminist criminologists have sought to examine patriarchy as a guiding framework for understanding violence against women. Literature on VAW often examines measures of structural gender equality, often overlooking ideological patriarchy which is necessary for structural inequality to remain unchallenged. Additionally, empirical literature generally focuses on extreme forms of VAW, rape, and femicide, often neglecting more common types of violence. This literature, under the theoretical guidance of the Liberal, Radical, and Marxist feminist traditions, finds mixed support for the relationship of patriarchy and VAW. Explanations for these inconsistencies may include data availability, and the use of different operationalizations of structural patriarchy. Research is needed to examine fuller operationalizations of patriarchy in social institutions and to extend this theoretical framework to the criminal justice response to VAW (i.e., clearance rates). This study examines sexual violence clearance rates under the theoretical guidance of these feminist traditions using incident- and county-level data from National Incident Based Reporting System and other sources in multilevel modelling. The findings suggest mixed support for the feminist hypotheses and that patriarchy and gender equality differentially affect arrest clearance rates and clearance through exceptional means for sexual violence.

Keywords: clearance rates, gender equality, multilevel modelling, patriarchy, sexual victimization, violence against women

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Authors: Ferdinando Montemari, Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: flapping dynamics, flight dynamics, system identification, tilt-rotor modeling and simulation

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Authors: Danish Farooq, Janos Juhasz

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Car-motorcycle accidents have been observed higher in recent years, which caused mainly riders’ fatalities and serious injuries. In-depth crash investigation methods aim to investigate the main factors which are likely involved in fatal road accidents and injury outcomes. The main objective of this study is to investigate the involved factors in car-motorcycle accidents in Budapest city. The procedure included statistical analysis and data sampling to identify car-motorcycle accidents by dominant accident types based on collision configurations. The police report was used as a data source for specified accidents, and simulation models were plotted according to scale (M 1:200). Car-motorcycle accidents were simulated in Virtual Crash software for 5 seconds before the collision. The simulation results showed that the main involved factors to car-motorcycle accidents were human behavior and view obstructions. The comprehensive, in-depth analysis also found that most of the car drivers and riders were unable to perform collision avoidance manoeuvres before the collision. This study can help the traffic safety authorities to focus on simulated involved factors to solve road safety issues in car-motorcycle accidents. The study also proposes safety measures to improve safe movements among road users.

Keywords: car motorcycle accidents, in-depth analysis, microscopic simulation, safety measures

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Authors: Rebeca Ramirez Acosta, Sebastian Lenhoff

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Decision makers worldwide need to determine if the implementation of a new market mechanism will contribute to the sustainability and resilience of the power system. Due to smart grid technologies, new products in the distribution and transmission system can be traded; however, the impact of changing a market rule will differ between several regions. To test systematically those impacts, a market categorization has been compiled and organized in a smart grid market testing toolbox. This toolbox maps all actual energy products and sets the basis for running a co-simulation test with the new rule to be implemented. It will help to measure the impact of the new rule, based on the sustainable and resilience indicators.

Keywords: co-simulation, electricity market, smart grid market, market testing

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Authors: Nicolaas Unland, John Webb

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The acidification and mobilisation of metals during the oxidation of acid sulfate soils exposed during lake bed drying is an increasingly common phenomenon under climate scenarios with reduced rainfall. In order to assess the risk of generating high concentrations of acidity and dissolved metals, chromium suite analysis are fundamental, but sometimes limited in characterising the potential risks they pose. This study combines such fundamental test work, along with incubation tests and 1D modelling to investigate the risks associated with the drying of Third Reedy Lake in South East Australia. Core samples were collected from a variable depth of 0.5 m below the lake bed, at 19 locations across the lake’s footprint, using a boat platform. Samples were subjected to a chromium suite of analysis, including titratable actual acidity, chromium reducible sulfur and acid neutralising capacity. Concentrations of reduced sulfur up to 0.08 %S and net acidities up to 0.15 %S indicate that acid sulfate soils have formed on the lake bed during permanent inundation over the last century. A further sub-set of samples were prepared in 7 columns and subject to accelerated heating, drying and wetting over a period of 64 days in laboratory. Results from the incubation trial indicate that while pyrite oxidation proceeded, minimal change to soil pH or the acidity of leachate occurred, suggesting that the internal buffering capacity of lake bed sediments was sufficient to neutralise a large proportion of the acidity produced. A 1D mass balance model was developed to assess potential changes in lake water quality during drying based on the results of chromium suite and incubation tests. Results from the above test work and modelling suggest that acid sulfate soils pose a moderate to low risk to the Third Reedy Lake system. Further, the risks can be effectively managed during the initial stages of lake drying via flushing with available mildly alkaline water. The study finds that while test work such as chromium suite analysis are fundamental in characterizing acid sulfate soil environments, they can the overestimate risks associated with the soils. Subsequent incubation test work may more accurately characterise such soils and lead to better-informed management strategies.

Keywords: acid sulfate soil, incubation, management, model, risk

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Authors: Abdelaziz Rabhi, Mohamed Amrani, Abderrazek Ziane, Nabil Belkadi, Abdelraouf Hocini

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In this paper, a bedimensional simulation program of the electric characteristics of reverse biased lateral polysilicon PIN diode is presented. In this case we have numerically solved the system of partial differential equations formed by Poisson's equation and both continuity equations that take into account the effect of impact ionization. Therefore we will obtain the current-voltage characteristics (I-V) of the reverse-biased structure which may include the effect of breakdown.The geometrical model assumes that the polysilicon layer is composed by a succession of defined mean grain size crystallites, separated by lateral grain boundaries which are parallel to the metallurgic junction.

Keywords: breakdown, polycrystalline silicon, PIN, grain, impact ionization

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Authors: Shima Soleimani, Steven Eckels

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One area of special importance for surface-level study of heat exchangers is tubes with internal micro-fins (< 0.5 mm tall). Micro-finned surfaces are a kind of extended solid surface in which energy is exchanged with water that acts as the source or sink of energy. Significant performance gains are possible for either shell, tube, or double pipe heat exchangers if the best surfaces are identified. The parametric studies of micro-finned tubes that have appeared in the literature left some key parameters unexplored. Specifically, they ignored three-dimensional (3D) micro-fin configurations, conduction heat transfer in the fins, and conduction in the solid surface below the micro-fins. Thus, this study aimed at implementing a parametric study of 3D micro-finned tubes that considered micro-fin height and discontinuity features. A 3D conductive and convective heat-transfer simulation through coupled solid and periodic fluid domains is applied in a commercial package, ANSYS Fluent 19.1. The simulation is steady-state with turbulent water flow cooling inner wall of a tube with micro-fins. The simulation utilizes a constant and uniform temperature on the tube outer wall. Performance is mapped for 18 different simulation cases, including a smooth tube using a realizable k-ε turbulence model at a Reynolds number of 48,928. Results compared the performance of 3D tubes with results for the similar two-dimensional (2D) one. Results showed that the micro-fin height has greater impact on performance factor than discontinuity features in 3D micro-fin tubes. A transformed 3D micro-fin tube can enhance heat transfer and pressure drop up to 21% and 56% compared to a 2D one, respectfully.

Keywords: three-dimensional micro-finned tube, heat transfer, friction factor, heat exchanger

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Authors: Djamila Aboutaleb, Brahim Safi

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In this paper, sodium borosilicates glasses were prepared by melting in air. These heat-resistant transparent glasses have subjected subsequently isothermal treatments at different times, which have transformed them at opaque glass (milky white color). Such changes indicate that these glasses showed clearly phase separation (immiscibility). The immiscibility region in a sodium borosilicate ternary system was investigated in this work, i.e. to determine the regions from which some compositions can show phase separation. For this we went through the conditions of thermodynamic equilibrium, which were translated later by mathematical equations to find an approximate solution. The latter has been translated in a simulation which was established thereafter to find the immiscibility regions in this type of special glasses.

Keywords: sodium borosilicate, heat-resistant, isothermal treatments, immiscibility, thermodynamics

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Authors: Sharad Singh, Ajay Kumar Sinha

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Coupled dampers like viscoelastic-frictional dampers for supplemental damping are a newer technique. In this paper, innovative Visco-frictional damping models have been presented and investigated. This paper attempts to couple frictional and fluid viscous dampers into a single unit of supplemental dampers. Visco-frictional damping model is developed by series and parallel coupling of frictional and fluid viscous dampers using Maxwell and Kelvin-Voigat models. The time analysis has been performed using numerical simulation on an SDOF system with varying fundamental periods, subject to a set of 12 ground motions. The simulation was performed using the direct time integration method. MATLAB programming tool was used to carry out the numerical simulation. The response behavior has been analyzed for the varying time period and added damping. This paper compares the response reduction behavior of the two modes of coupling. This paper highlights the performance efficiency of the suggested damping models. It also presents a mathematical modeling approach to visco-frictional dampers and simultaneously suggests the suitable mode of coupling between the two sub-units.

Keywords: hysteretic damping, Kelvin model, Maxwell model, parallel coupling, series coupling, viscous damping

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Authors: S. P. Pradhan, Amulya Ratna Roul

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A number of landslides are occurring during the rainy season along Rayagada-Koraput Railway track for past three years. The track was constructed about 20 years ago. However, the protection measures are not able to control the recurring slope failures now. It leads to a loss to Indian Railway and its passengers ultimately leading to wastage of time and money. The slopes along Rayagada-Koraput track include both rock and soil slopes. The rock types include mainly Khondalite and Charnockite whereas soil slopes are mainly composed of laterite ranging from less weathered to highly weathered laterite. The field studies were carried out in one of the critical slope. Field study was followed by the kinematic analysis to assess the type of failure. Slake Durability test, Uniaxial Compression test, specific gravity test and triaxial test were done on rock samples to calculate and assess properties such as weathering index, unconfined compressive strength, density, cohesion, and friction angle. Following all the laboratory tests, rock mass rating was calculated. Further, from Kinematic analysis and Rock Mass Ratingbasic, Slope Mass Rating was proposed for each slope. The properties obtained were used to do the slope stability simulations using finite element method based modelling. After all the results, suitable protection measures, to prevent the loss due to slope failure, were suggested using the relation between Slope Mass Rating and protection measures.

Keywords: landslides, slope stability, rock mass rating, slope mass rating, numerical simulation

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Authors: Rodrigo Pacheco-Ruiz, Jonathan Adams, Felix Pedrotti

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This paper introduces the applicability of underwater photogrammetric survey within challenging conditions as the main tool to enhance and enrich the process of documenting archaeological excavation through the creation of 4D models. Photogrammetry was being attempted on underwater archaeological sites at least as early as the 1970s’ and today the production of traditional 3D models is becoming a common practice within the discipline. Photogrammetry underwater is more often implemented to record exposed underwater archaeological remains and less so as a dynamic interpretative tool.  Therefore, it tends to be applied in bright environments and when underwater visibility is > 1m, reducing its implementation on most submerged archaeological sites in more turbid conditions. Recent years have seen significant development of better digital photographic sensors and the improvement of optical technology, ideal for darker environments. Such developments, in tandem with powerful processing computing systems, have allowed underwater photogrammetry to be used by this research as a standard recording and interpretative tool. Using multi-source photogrammetry (5, GoPro5 Hero Black cameras) this paper presents the accumulation of daily (4D) underwater surveys carried out in the Early Bronze Age (3,300 BC) to Late Ottoman (17th Century AD) archaeological site of Ropotamo in the Bulgarian Black Sea under challenging conditions (< 0.5m visibility). It proves that underwater photogrammetry can and should be used as one of the main recording methods even in low light and poor underwater conditions as a way to better understand the complexity of the underwater archaeological record.

Keywords: 4D modelling, Black Sea Maritime Archaeology Project, multi-source photogrammetry, low visibility underwater survey

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Authors: Mary Booth

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Biophotovoltaics is a method of green energy generation derived from exposing plants to lights. Its vast potential is hampered by the public’s relative ignorance of its existence. This work aims to formalize the principles of the physical processes of biophotovoltaics into a comprehensible visual software model, thus amplifying the human thought process. The methods used involve initially crafting a scale model of a working biophotovoltaic system from household materials inspired by the work of Paolo Bombelli. The scale model is then programmed into a system-level simulation, wherein a 3D animation dissects the system and its general energy generation process. The completed 3D system-level simulation ultimately creates a simplified visual understanding of the complex principles of the biophotovoltaic system.

Keywords: 3D, biophotovoltaics, render

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Authors: Maria Amodeo, Pasquale Arpaia, Marco Buzio, Vincenzo Di Capua, Francesco Donnarumma

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Different deep neural network architectures have been compared and tested to predict magnetic hysteresis in the context of pulsed electromagnets for experimental physics applications. Modelling quasi-static or dynamic major and especially minor hysteresis loops is one of the most challenging topics for computational magnetism. Recent attempts at mathematical prediction in this context using Preisach models could not attain better than percent-level accuracy. Hence, this work explores neural network approaches and shows that the architecture that best fits the measured magnetic field behaviour, including the effects of hysteresis and eddy currents, is the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous neural network (NARX) model. This architecture aims to achieve a relative RMSE of the order of a few 100 ppm for complex magnetic field cycling, including arbitrary sequences of pseudo-random high field and low field cycles. The NARX-based architecture is compared with the state-of-the-art, showing better performance than the classical operator-based and differential models, and is tested on a reference quadrupole magnetic lens used for CERN particle beams, chosen as a case study. The training and test datasets are a representative example of real-world magnet operation; this makes the good result obtained very promising for future applications in this context.

Keywords: deep neural network, magnetic modelling, measurement and empirical software engineering, NARX

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Authors: Hossam Ali-Hassan, Michael Bliemel

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This poster reflects upon our experiences using INNOV8, IBM’s Business Process Management (BPM) simulation game, in online MBA and undergraduate MIS classes over a period of 2 years. The game is designed to gives both business and information technology players a better understanding of how effective BPM impacts an entire business ecosystem. The game includes three different scenarios: Smarter Traffic, which is used to evaluate existing traffic patterns and re-route traffic based on incoming metrics; Smarter Customer Service where players develop more efficient ways to respond to customers in a call centre environment; and Smarter Supply Chains where players balance supply and demand and reduce environmental impact in a traditional supply chain model. We use the game as an experiential learning tool, where students have to act as managers making real time changes to business processes to meet changing business demands and environments. The students learn how information technology (IT) and information systems (IS) can be used to intelligently solve different problems and how computer simulations can be used to test different scenarios or models based on business decisions without having to actually make the potentially costly and/or disruptive changes to business processes. Moreover, when students play the three different scenarios, they quickly see how practical process improvements can help meet profitability, customer satisfaction and environmental goals while addressing real problems faced by municipalities and businesses today. After spending approximately two hours in the game, students reflect on their experience from it to apply several BPM principles that were presented in their textbook through the use of a structured set of assignment questions. For each final scenario students submit a screenshot of their solution followed by one paragraph explaining what criteria you were trying to optimize, and why they picked their input variables. In this poster we outline the course and the module’s learning objectives where we used the game to place this into context. We illustrate key features of the INNOV8 Simulation Game, and describe how we used them to reinforce theoretical concepts. The poster will also illustrate examples from the simulation, assignment, and learning outcomes.

Keywords: experiential learning, business process management, BPM, INNOV8, simulation, game

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Authors: Yassir AbdelRazig, Eren Ozguven, Ren Moses

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While there exists a greater understanding of the differences between the driving behaviors of older and younger drivers, there is still a need to further understand how the two groups perform when attempting to perform complex intersection maneuvers. This paper looks to determine if, and to what extent, these differences exist when drivers encounter permissive left-hand turns, pedestrian traffic, two and four-lane intersections, heavy fog, and night conditions. The study will utilize a driving simulator to develop custom drivable scenarios containing one or more of the previously mentioned conditions. 32 younger and 32 older (+65 years) participants perform driving simulation scenarios and have their velocity, time to the nearest oncoming vehicle, accepted and rejected gaps, etc., recorded. The data collected from the simulator is analyzed via Raff’s method and logistic regression in order to determine and compare the critical gaps values of the two cohorts. Out of the parameters considered for this study, only the age of the driver, their experience (if they are a younger driver), the size of a gap, and the presence of pedestrians on the crosswalk proved significant. The results did not support the hypothesis that older drivers would be significantly more conservative in their critical gaps judgment and acceptance.

Keywords: older drivers, simulation, left-turn, human factors

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Authors: Rauan Sakenov, Peter Bukovics, Peter Gaszler, Veronika Tokacs-Kollar, Beata Bugyi

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FH2 (formin homology-2) domains of several proteins, collectively known as formins, including DAAM, DAAM1 and mDia1, promote G-actin nucleation and elongation. FH2 domains of these formins exist as oligomers. Chain dimerization by ring structure formation serves as a structural basis for actin polymerization function of FH2 domain. Proper single chain configuration and specific interactions between its various regions are necessary for individual chains to form a dimer functional in G-actin nucleation and elongation. FH1 and WH2 domain-containing formins were shown to behave as intrinsically disordered proteins. Thus, the aim of this research was to study structural dynamics of FH2 domain of DAAM. To investigate structural features of FH2 domain of DAAM, molecular dynamics simulation of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM solvated in water box in 50 mM NaCl was conducted at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K, with VMD 1.9.2, NAMD 2.14 and Amber Tools 21 using 2z6e and 1v9d PDB structures of DAAM was obtained on I-TASSER webserver. Calcium and ATP bound G-actin 3hbt PDB structure was used as a reference protein with well-described structural dynamics of denaturation. Topology and parameter information of CHARMM 2012 additive all-atom force fields for proteins, carbohydrate derivatives, water and ions were used in NAMD 2.14 and ff19SB force field for proteins in Amber Tools 21. The systems were energy minimized for the first 1000 steps, equilibrated and produced in NPT ensemble for 1ns using stochastic Langevin dynamics and the particle mesh Ewald method. Our root-mean square deviation (RMSD) analysis of molecular dynamics of chain A of FH2 domains of DAAM revealed similar insignificant changes of total molecular average RMSD values of FH2 domain of these formins at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. In contrast, total molecular average RMSD values of G-actin showed considerable increase at 328K, which corresponds to the denaturation of G-actin molecule at this temperature and its transition from native, ordered, to denatured, disordered, state which is well-described in the literature. RMSD values of lasso and tail regions of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM exhibited higher than total molecular average RMSD at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. These regions are functional in intra- and interchain interactions and contain highly conserved tryptophan residues of lasso region, highly conserved GNYMN sequence of post region and amino acids of the shell of hydrophobic pocket of the salt bridge between Arg171 and Asp321, which are important for structural stability and ordered state of FH2 domain of DAAM and its functions in FH2 domain dimerization. In conclusion, higher than total molecular average RMSD values of lasso and post regions of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM may explain disordered state of FH2 domain of DAAM at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. Finally, absence of marked transition, in terms of significant changes in average molecular RMSD values between native and denatured states of FH2 domain of DAAM at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K, can make it possible to attribute these formins to the group of intrinsically disordered proteins rather than to the group of intrinsically ordered proteins such as G-actin.

Keywords: FH2 domain, DAAM, formins, molecular modelling, computational biophysics

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Torsten Schwan, Rene Unger

Abstract:

Simulation of thermal and electrical building performance more and more becomes part of an integrative planning process. Increasing requirements on energy efficiency, the integration of volatile renewable energy, smart control and storage management often cause tremendous challenges for building engineers and architects. This mainly affects commercial or non-residential buildings. Their energy consumption characteristics significantly distinguish from residential ones. This work focuses on the many-objective optimization problem indoor air quality and comfort, especially in non-residential buildings. Based on a brief description of intermediate dependencies between different requirements on indoor air treatment it extends existing Modelica-based building physics models with additional system states to adequately represent indoor air conditions. Interfaces to corresponding HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) system and control models enable closed-loop analyzes of occupants' requirements and energy efficiency as well as profitableness aspects. A complex application scenario of a nearly-zero-energy school building shows advantages of presented evaluation process for engineers and architects. This way, clear identification of air quality requirements in individual rooms together with realistic model-based description of occupants' behavior helps to optimize HVAC system already in early design stages. Building planning processes can be highly improved and accelerated by increasing integration of advanced simulation methods. Those methods mainly provide suitable answers on engineers' and architects' questions regarding more exuberant and complex variety of suitable energy supply solutions.

Keywords: indoor air quality, dynamic simulation, energy efficient control, non-residential buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: Maxat Bokambayev, Bella Tussupova, Aisha Mamyrova, Erlan Izbasarov

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Optimization of business processes in trading companies is reviewed in the report. There is the presentation of the “Wholesale Customer Order Handling Process” business process model applicable for small and medium businesses. It is proposed to apply the algorithm for automation of the customer order processing which will significantly reduce labor costs and time expenditures and increase the profitability of companies. An optimized business process is an element of the information system of accounting of spare parts trading network activity. The considered algorithm may find application in the trading industry as well.

Keywords: business processes, discrete-event simulation, management, trading industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: S. Phanyaem

Abstract:

This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: effect size, confidence interval, bootstrap method, resampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 580

Authors: Maryam Mohammadi, Mohammadjavad Mahdavinejad, Mojtaba Ansari

Abstract:

The main driving force for increasing movement towards the design of High-Performance Buildings (HPB) are building codes and rating systems that address the various components of the building and their impact on the environment and energy conservation through various methods like prescriptive methods or simulation-based approaches. The methods and tools developed to meet these needs, which are often based on building performance simulation tools (BPST), have limitations in terms of compatibility with the integrated design process (IDP) and HPB design, as well as use by architects in the early stages of design (when the most important decisions are made). To overcome these limitations in recent years, efforts have been made to develop Design Decision Support Systems, which are often based on artificial intelligence. Numerous needs and steps for designing and developing a Decision Support System (DSS), which complies with the early stages of energy-efficient architecture design -consisting of combinations of different methods in an integrated package- have been listed in the literature. While various review studies have been conducted in connection with each of these techniques (such as optimizations, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, etc.) and their integration of them with specific targets; this article is a critical and holistic review of the researches which leads to the development of applicable systems or introduction of a comprehensive framework for developing models complies with the IDP. Information resources such as Science Direct and Google Scholar are searched using specific keywords and the results are divided into two main categories: Simulation-based DSSs and Meta-simulation-based DSSs. The strengths and limitations of different models are highlighted, two general conceptual models are introduced for each category and the degree of compliance of these models with the IDP Framework is discussed. The research shows movement towards Multi-Level of Development (MOD) models, well combined with early stages of integrated design (schematic design stage and design development stage), which are heuristic, hybrid and Meta-simulation-based, relies on Big-real Data (like Building Energy Management Systems Data or Web data). Obtaining, using and combining of these data with simulation data to create models with higher uncertainty, more dynamic and more sensitive to context and culture models, as well as models that can generate economy-energy-efficient design scenarios using local data (to be more harmonized with circular economy principles), are important research areas in this field. The results of this study are a roadmap for researchers and developers of these tools.

Keywords: integrated design process, design decision support system, meta-simulation based, early stage, big data, energy efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Makito Sakai, Takahiro Kiwata, Takumi Awa, Hiroshi Teramoto, Takaaki Kono, Kuniaki Toyoda

Abstract:

Using experimental and numerical results, this paper describes the effects of tabs on the flow characteristics of a plane jet at comparatively low Reynolds numbers while focusing on the velocity field and the vortical structure. The flow visualization and velocity measurements were respectively carried out using laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and particle image velocimetry (PIV). In addition, three-dimensional (3D) plane jet numerical simulations were performed using ANSYS Fluent, a commercially available computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software application. We found that the spreads of jets perturbed by large delta tabs and round tabs were larger than those produced by the other tabs tested. Additionally, it was determined that a plane jet with square tabs had the smallest jet spread downstream, and the jet’s centerline velocity was larger than those of jets perturbed by the other tabs tested. It was also observed that the spanwise vortical structure of a plane jet with tabs disappeared completely. Good agreement was found between the experimental and numerical simulation velocity profiles in the area near the nozzle exit when the laminar flow model was used. However, we also found that large eddy simulation (LES) is better at predicting the developing flow field of a plane jet than the laminar and the standard k-ε turbulent models.

Keywords: plane jet, flow control, tab, flow measurement, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 322