Search results for: generalized tail conditional expectation

Authors: Badriah Alayidi, Emad Alyahya

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Background: Most people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) report worsening balance as the condition progresses. Poor balance control is also well known to be a significant risk factor for both falling and fear of falling. The increased risk of falls with disease progression thus makes balance control an essential target of gait rehabilitation amongst people with MS. Intervention programs have developed various methods to improve balance control, and accumulating evidence suggests that exercise programs may help people with MS improve their balance. Among these methods, virtual reality (VR) is growing in popularity as a balance-training technique owing to its potential benefits, including better compliance and greater user happiness. However, it is not clear if a VR environment will induce different balance control mechanisms in MS as compared to healthy individuals or traditional environments. Therefore, this study aims to examine how individuals with MS control their balance in a VR setting. Methodology: The proposed study takes an empirical approach to estimate and determine the role of balance response in persons with MS using a VR environment. It will use primary data collected through patient observations, physiological and biomechanical evaluation of balance, and data analysis. Results: The preliminary systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that there was variability in terms of the outcome assessing balance response in people with MS. The preliminary results of these assessments have the potential to provide essential indicators of the progression of MS and contribute to the individualization of treatment and evaluation of the interventions’ effectiveness. The literature describes patients who have had the opportunity to experiment in VR settings and then used what they have learned in the real world, suggesting that this VR setting could be more appealing than conditional settings. The findings of the proposed study will be beneficial in estimating and determining the effect of VR on balance control in persons with MS. In previous studies, VR was shown to be an interesting approach to neurological rehabilitation, but more data are needed to support this approach in MS. Conclusions: The proposed study enables an assessment of balance and evaluations of a variety of physiological implications related to neural activity as well as biomechanical implications related to movement analysis.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, virtual reality, postural control, balance

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Authors: Yeo Ryeong Jeon, Pyong Kon Cho, Eun Ok Han, Hyon Chul Jang, Yong Min Kim

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This study surveyed on recognition related to radiation safety for radiation safety managers and workers those who have been worked in Republic of Korea education and research institution. At present, South Korea has no guideline and manual of radiation safety for education and research institution. Therefore, we tried to find an educational basis for development of radiation safety guideline and manual. To check the level of knowledge, attitude, and behavior about radiation safety, we used the questionnaire that consisted of 29 questions against knowledge, attitude and behavior, 4 questions against self-efficacy and expectation based on four factors (radiation source, human, organizational and physical environment) of the Haddon's matrix. Responses were collected between May 4 and June 30, 2015. We analyzed questionnaire by means of IBM SPSS/WIN 15 which well known as statistical package for social science. The data were compared with mean, standard deviation, Pearson's correlation, ANOVA (analysis of variance) and regression analysis. 180 copies of the questionnaire were returned from 60 workplaces. The overall mean results for behavior level was relatively lower than knowledge and attitude level. In particular, organizational environment factor on the radiation safety management indicated the lowest behavior level. Most of the factors were correlated in Pearson’s correlation analysis, especially between knowledge of human factors and behavior of human factors (Pearson’s correlation coefficient 0.809, P<.01). When analysis performed in line with the main radiation source type, institutions where have been used only opened RI (radioisotope) behavior level was the lowest among all subjects. Finally, knowledge of radiation source factor (β=0.556, P<.001) and human factor(β=0.376, P<.001) had the greatest impact in terms of behavior practice. Radiation safety managers and workers think positively about radiation safety management, but are poorly informed organizational environment of their institution. Thus, each institution need to efforts to settlement of radiation safety culture. Also, pedagogical interventions for improving knowledge on radiation safety needs in terms of safety accident prevention.

Keywords: radiation safety management, factor analysis, SPSS, republic of Korea

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Tzu-hsun Yen

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Because of the long-term commitment to net zero carbon emission, utility companies include more renewable energy supply, which generates electricity with time and weather restrictions. This leads to time-of-use electricity pricing to reflect the actual cost of energy supply. From an end-user point of view, better residential energy management is needed to incorporate the time-of-use prices and assist end users in scheduling their daily use of electricity. This study uses bi-criteria optimization methods to schedule daily energy consumption by minimizing the electricity cost and maximizing the comfort of end users. Different from most previous research, this study schedules users’ activities rather than household appliances to have better measures of users’ comfort/satisfaction. The relation between each activity and the use of different appliances could be defined by users. The comfort level is at the highest when the time and duration of an activity completely meet the user’s expectation, and the comfort level decreases when the time and duration do not meet expectations. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data for establishing regression models that describe users’ comfort levels when the execution time and duration of activities are different from user expectations. Six regression models representing the comfort levels for six types of activities were established using the responses to the questionnaire survey. A computer program is developed to evaluate electricity cost and the comfort level for each feasible schedule and then find the non-dominated schedules. The Epsilon constraint method is used to find the optimal schedule out of the non-dominated schedules. A hypothetical case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the computer program. Using the program, users can obtain the optimal schedule of daily energy consumption by inputting the intended time and duration of activities and the given time-of-use electricity prices.

Keywords: bi-criteria optimization, energy consumption, time-of-use price, scheduling

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Authors: Abdmohammad Mousavi, Mohsen Shams, Mehdi Akbartabar Toori, Ali Mousavizadeh, Mohammad Ali Morowatisharifabad

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Introduction: The effectiveness of Transtheoretical Model constructs on dietary behavior change has been subject to questions by some studies. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between self–efficacy and decisional balance as mediator variables and transfer obese and overweight women among the stages of behavior change of calorie balanced dietary intake. Method: In this cross-sectional study, 448 obese and overweight 20-44 years old women were selected from three health centers in Yasuj, a city in south west of Iran. Anthropometric data were measured using standard techniques. Demographic, stages of change, self-efficacy and decisional balance data were collected by questionnaires and analyzed using One–Way ANOVA and Generalized Linear Models tests. Results: Demographic and anthropometric variables were not different significantly in different stages of change related to calorie intake except the pre-high school level of education (P=.047, OR=502, 95% CI= .255 ~ .990). Mean scores of Self-efficacy ( F(4.425)= 27.09, P= .000), decisional balance (F(4.394), P= .004), and pros (F(4.430)=5.33, P=000) were different significantly in five stages of change. However, the cons did not show a significant change in this regard (F(4.400)=1.83, P=.123). Discussion: Women movement through the stages of changes for calorie intake behavior can be predicted by self efficacy, decisional balance and pros.

Keywords: transtheoretical model, stages of change, self efficacy, decisional balance, calorie intake, women

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Authors: Aicha Bouhlala, Sabah Chettibi

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A systematic investigation on structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of Ce₀.₇₅A₀.₂₅O₂ (A = W, Mo) is performed using first-principles calculations within the framework Full-Potential Linear Augmented Plane Wave (FP-LAPW) method based on the Density Functional Theory (DFT). The exchange-correlation potential has been treated using the generalized gradient approximation (WC-GGA) developed by Wu-Cohen. The host compound CeO2 was doped with transition metal atoms W and Mo in the doping concentration of 25% to replace the Ce atom. In structural properties, the equilibrium lattice constant is observed for the W-doped CeO₂ compound which exists within the value of 5.314 A° and the value of 5.317 A° for Mo-doped CeO2. The present results show that Ce₀.₇₅A₀.₂₅O₂ (A=W, Mo) systems exhibit semiconducting behavior in both spin channels. Although undoped CeO₂ is a non-magnetic semiconductor. The band structure of these doped compounds was plotted and they exhibit direct band gap at the Fermi level (EF) in the majority and minority spin channels. In the magnetic properties, the doped atoms W and Mo play a vital role in increasing the magnetic moments of the supercell and the values of the total magnetic moment are found to be 1.998 μB for Ce₀.₇₅W₀.₂₅O₂ and to be 2.002 μB for Ce₀.₇₅Mo₀.₂₅O₂ compounds. Calculated results indicate that the magneto-electronic properties of the Ce₁₋ₓAₓO₂(A= W, Mo) oxides supply a new way to the experimentalist for the potential applications in spintronics devices.

Keywords: FP-LAPW, DFT, CeO₂, properties

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Authors: Malkhan Thakur, P. Deepak Kumar, P. K. S. Dikshit

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In recent years, the hydraulic behavior of side weirs has been the subject of many investigations. Most of the studies have been in connection with specific problems and have involved models. This is perhaps understandable, since a generalized treatment is made difficult by the large number of possible variables to be used to define the problem. A variety of empirical head discharge relationships have been suggested for side weirs. These empirical approaches failed to adequately consider the actual situation, and produced equations applicable only in circumstances virtually identical to those of the experiment. The present investigation is targeted to study to a greater depth the effect of different trapezium angles of a trapezoidal side weir and study of water surface profile in spatially varied flow with decreasing discharge maintaining the main channel flow subcritical. On the basis of experiment, the relationship between upstream Froude number and coefficient of discharge has been established. All the characteristics of spatially varied flow with decreasing discharge have been studied and subsequently formulated. The scope of the present investigation has been basically limited to a one-dimensional model of flow for the purpose of analysis. A formulation has been derived using the theoretical concept of constant specific energy. Coefficient of discharge has been calculated and experimental results were presented.

Keywords: weirs, subcritical flow, rectangular channel, trapezoidal side weir

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Authors: Julio Silva, Lia Hasenclever, Gilson G. Silva Jr.

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The aim of this paper is to check possible convergence in health measures (aged-standard rate of morbidity and mortality) for communicable diseases between developed and developing countries, conditional to productive structures features. Understanding the interrelations between health patterns and economic development is particularly important in the context of low- and middle-income countries, where economic development comes along with deep social inequality. Developing countries with less diversified productive structures (measured through complexity index) but high heterogeneous inter-sectorial labor productivity (using as a proxy inter-sectorial coefficient of variation of labor productivity) has on average low health levels in communicable diseases compared to developed countries with high diversified productive structures and low labor market heterogeneity. Structural heterogeneity and productive diversification may have influence on health levels even considering per capita income. We set up a panel data for 139 countries from 1995 to 2015, joining several data about the countries, as economic development, health, and health system coverage, environmental and socioeconomic aspects. This information was obtained from World Bank, International Labour Organization, Atlas of Economic Complexity, United Nation (Development Report) and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Database. Econometric panel models evidence shows that the level of communicable diseases has a positive relationship with structural heterogeneity, even considering other factors as per capita income. On the other hand, the recent process of convergence in terms of communicable diseases have been motivated for other reasons not directly related to productive structure, as health system coverage and environmental aspects. These evidences suggest a joint dynamics between the unequal distribution of communicable diseases and countries' productive structure aspects. These set of evidence are quite important to public policy as meet the health aims in Millennium Development Goals. It also highlights the importance of the process of structural change as fundamental to shift the levels of health in terms of communicable diseases and can contribute to the debate between the relation of economic development and health patterns changes.

Keywords: economic development, inequality, population health, structural change

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Authors: Rashmi Dubey

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The study aims at investigating the onset of thermal convection in an inclined porous layer saturated with a non-Newtonian fluid. The layer is infinitely extended and has a finite width confined between two boundaries with constant pressure conditions, where the lower one is maintained at a higher temperature. Over the years, this area of research has attracted many scientists and researchers, for it has a plethora of applications in the fields of sciences and engineering, such as in civil engineering, geothermal sites, petroleum industries, etc.Considering the possibilities in a practical scenario, an inclined porous layer is considered, which can be used to develop a generalized model applicable to any inclination. Using the isobaric boundaries, the hydrodynamic boundary conditions are derived for the power-law model and are used to obtain the basic state flow. The convection in the basic state flow is driven by the thermal buoyancy in the flow system and is carried away further due to hydrodynamic boundaries. A linear stability analysis followed by a normal-mode analysis is done to investigate the onset of convection in the buoyancy-driven flow. The analysis shows that the convective instability is always initiated by the non-traveling modes for the Newtonian fluid, but prevails in the form of oscillatory modes, for up to a certain inclination of the porous layer. However, different behavior is observed for the dilatant and pseudoplastic fluids.

Keywords: thermal convection, linear stability, porous media flow, Inclined porous layer

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Authors: Zasha Romero, Roberto Trevino, Lin Wang, Elizabeth Alanis, Jesus Cuellar

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Background: There is a strong relationship between low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and high adiposity levels. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of the Bienestar/Neema Coordinated School Health Program (BN CSHP) on the CRF of preschool children. Methods: This is a randomized cluster trial conducted in preschools of two school districts located along the Texas-Mexico border. Of 48 eligible schools, 28 were randomly selected (intervention, n=14; control, n=14). Family demographics and household health characteristics were collected from parents. CRF, as measured by the Progressive Anaerobic Capacity Endurance Run (PACER) fitness test, was collected from the children. A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to analyze the data. Results: Family demographics, household health characteristics, and children’s weight, obesity prevalence, and sedentary activity were similar among both treatment groups. After adjusting for covariates, the number of laps run by children in the control group increased by 23% (CI: -5% to 60%) per each data collection period compared with 53% (CI: 7% to 119%) in the intervention group. Conclusions: Children in the BN CSHP, compared to those in the control group, had a significantly higher increase in their CRF. This finding is important because of the health benefits of CRF in children.

Keywords: coordinated school health program, cardiorespiratory fitness, obesity, border health, preschool, physical education, movement

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Authors: Nusrat Ali, Muhammad Saleem Khan

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Education is the process of bringing individuals aware of their own reality in a manner that leads them to the effective adjustment with the environment. Females’ participation is vital to reducing hunger and poverty and promoting the family welfare. Education is the right of men and women both. Female education is more needed rural areas as compared to urban areas. Without educating the women of the country we cannot think of developing our nation. It is a fact that women are the first teachers of their children. Hence, if mothers are well educated, they can play an important role in shaping and molding of their sons and daughters. The main purpose of study was to identify the barriers of female education and the attitude among the parents. The present study researchers selected a quantitative study to explore the highlighting problem in the particular areas. Through the stratified random sampling selected a sample size from each stratum and generalized whole population. Chi-square test was used to test the validity of the data. The conclusion shows attitudes of parents somehow influence their daughters’ education, particularly those who are living in countryside. Another a big challenge of female education is co-education system in our society is higher which directly subjected to parents unfavorable attitude towards their daughters’ education. In this modern era various organizations are working for female education in rural areas where females are considered as house working ladies, now it’s time to work more to change parent’s attitude towards their daughter’s education.

Keywords: parental attitude, professional education, daughter, unfavorable attitude

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Authors: Ayesha Asma, Aqsa Arooj

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It is an essential need in this era of Science and Technology to investigate some unique and appropriate materials for optoelectronic applications. Here, we deliberated, for the first time, the structural, optoelectronic, mechanical, vibrational, and thermo dynamical properties of hexagonal structure selenium-based ternary chalcogenides AScSe₂ (A= K, Cs) by using Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof Generalized-Gradient-Approximation (PBE-GGA). The lattice angles for these materials are found as α=β=90o and γ=120o. KScSe₂ optimized with lattice parameters a=b=4.3 (Å), c=7.81 (Å) whereas CsScSe₂ got relaxed at a=b=4.43 (Å) and c=8.51 (Å). However, HSE06 functional has overestimated the lattice parameters to the extent that for KScSe₂ a=b=4.92 (Å), c=7.10 (Å), and CsScSe₂ a=b=5.15 (Å), c=7.09 (Å). The energy band gap of these materials calculated via PBE-GGA and HSE06 functionals confirms their semiconducting nature. Concerning Born’s criteria, these materials are mechanically stable ones. Moreover, the temperature dependence of thermodynamic potentials and specific heat at constant volume are also determined while using the harmonic approximation. The negative values of free energy ensure their thermodynamic stability. The vibrational modes are calculated by plotting the phonon dispersion and the vibrational density of states (VDOS), where infrared (IR) and Raman spectroscopy are used to characterize the vibrational modes. The various optical parameters are examined at a smearing value of 0.5eV. These parameters unveil that these materials are good absorbers of incident light in ultra-violet (UV) regions and may be utilized in photovoltaic applications.

Keywords: structural, optimized, vibrational, ultraviolet

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Authors: Shahin A. Abdel-Naby, Asad T. Hassan

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Electron-ion recombination data are needed for plasma modeling. The recombination processes include radiative recombination (RR), dielectronic recombination (DR), and trielectronic recombination (TR). When a free electron is captured by an ion with simultaneous excitation of its core, a doubly-exited intermediate state may be formed. The doubly excited state relaxes either by electron emission (autoionization) or by radiative decay (photon emission). DR process takes place when the relaxation occurs to a bound state by photon emission. Reliable laboratory astrophysics data (theory and experiment) for DR rate coefficients are needed to determine the charge state distribution in photoionized sources such as X-ray binaries and active galactic nuclei. DR rate coefficients for NIII and OIV ions are calculated using state-of-the-art multi-configuration Breit-Pauli atomic structure AUTOSTRUCTURE collisional package within the generalized collisional-radiative framework. Level-resolved calculations for RR and DR rate coefficients from the ground and metastable initial states are produced in an intermediate coupling scheme associated with Δn = 0 (2→2) and Δn = 1 (2 →3) core-excitations. DR cross sections for these ions are convoluted with the experimental electron-cooler temperatures to produce DR rate coefficients. Good agreements are found between these rate coefficients and the experimental measurements performed at the CRYRING heavy-ion storage ring for both ions.

Keywords: atomic data, atomic process, electron-ion collision, plasmas

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Authors: Proficiency Munsaka, Peter Baricholo, Erich Rohwer

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Pulse evolutions along the 5 cm long, 6.0 ×4.2 μm² cross-section silicon germanium (SiGe) photonic waveguides were simulated and compared with experiments. Simulations were carried out by solving a generalized nonlinear Schrodinger equation (GNLSE) for an optical pulse evolution along the length of the SiGe photonic waveguides by the split-step Fourier method (SSFM). The solution obtained from the SSFM gave the pulse envelope in both time and spectral domain calculated at each distance step along the propagation direction. The SiGe photonic waveguides were pumped in an anomalous group velocity dispersion (GVD) regime using a 4.7 μm, 210 fs femtosecond laser to produce a significant supercontinuum (SC). The simulated propagation of ultrafast pulse along the SiGe photonic waveguides produced an SC covering the atmospheric window (2.5-8.5 μm) containing the molecular fingerprints for important gases. Thus, the mid-infrared supercontinuum generation in SiGe photonic waveguides system can be commercialized for gas spectroscopy for detecting gases that include CO₂, CH₄, H₂O, SO₂, SO₃, NO₂, H₂S, CO, and NO at trace level using absorption spectroscopy technique. The simulated profile evolutions are spectrally and temporally similar to those obtained by other researchers. Obtained evolution profiles are characterized by pulse compression, Soliton fission, dispersive wave generation, stimulated Raman Scattering, and Four Wave mixing.

Keywords: silicon germanium photonic waveguide, supercontinuum generation, spectroscopy, mid infrared

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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Authors: Norashikin Ismail, Nadia Anridho

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Sustainable investing is a responsible investment that focuses on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) elements. ESG integration is essential in the investment process as it provides a positive contribution to the corporate performance for stakeholders, specifically investors. Sustainable investing is in line with the objectives of Shariah (Maqasid of Shariah), such as social inclusion as well as environmental preservation. This study attempts to evaluate the impact of ESG elements to the corporate financial performance among Shariah compliant stocks listed in two countries, namely Malaysia and Indonesia. The motivation of this study is to provide a further understanding in corporate sustainability for two different Islamic capital markets. The existence of the FTSE4Good Asean Index has played a vital role for ESG practices and eventually encouraged specific index for ESG and Shariah Compliant stocks. Our sample consists of 60 companies over the period 2010-2020 from two Southeast countries. We employ System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to reduce bias and more specific parameter estimation. Shariah Compliant companies tend to have higher ESG scores and are positively correlated to corporate financial performance. ESG integration with Shariah based investing would provide higher returns and lower risks for Muslim investors. Essentially, integrating ESG and Shariah, compliant companies lead to better financial performance.

Keywords: shariah compliant, southeast asia, corporate performance, sustainable investing

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Authors: Yousef I. Salamin

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Theoretical investigations, analytical as well as numerical, have shown that electrons can be accelerated to GeV energies by the process of cyclotron auto-resonance acceleration (CARA). In CARA, the particle would be injected along the lines of a uniform magnetic field aligned parallel to the direction of propagation of a plane-wave radiation field. Unfortunately, an accelerator based on CARA would be prohibitively too long and too expensive to build and maintain. However, the process stands a better chance of success near the polar cap of a compact object (such as a neutron star, a black hole or a magnetar) or in an environment created in the wake of a binary neutron-star or blackhole merger. Dynamics of the nuclides ₁H¹, ₂He⁴, ₂₆Fe⁵⁶, and ₂₈Ni⁶², in such astrophysical conditions, have been investigated by single-particle calculations and many-particle simulations. The investigations show that these nuclides can reach ZeV energies (1 ZeV = 10²¹ eV) due to interaction with super-intense radiation of wavelengths = 1 and 10 m and = 50 pm and magnetic fields of strengths at the mega- and giga-tesla levels. Examples employing radiation intensities in the range 10³²-10⁴² W/m² have been used. Employing a two-parameter model for representing the radiation field, CARA is analytically generalized to include any state of polarization, and the basic working equations are derived rigorously and in closed analytic form.

Keywords: compact objects, cosmic-ray acceleration, cyclotron auto-resonance, polarization effects, zevatron

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Authors: Hummad Ch. Umar

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Most of the developing economies, including Pakistan, are confronted with high level of external debt which is adversely affecting their economic performance. The hypothesis of debt overhang is often used to assess the negative relationship between foreign debt and the economic growth of the indebted country. As first objective of the present study, this hypothesis is tested by using Pooled OLS (POLS), Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), Random Effect (RE), and Fixed effect (FE) techniques. As second objective, the study uses the concept of debt Laffer Curve to determine the eligibility condition of the indebted countries for the relief programs. According to this approach, countries lying on the right side of the Laffer Curve are stated to be trapped in the strong debt overhang making them unable to come out of the vicious circle of low growth and high foreign debt. The empirical analysis confirms that only two countries out of twenty two completely fulfill the conditions of being eligible for the debt relief. All other countries continue to face debt burden of different magnitudes. The study further confirms that the debt relief alone is not sufficient for overcoming the debt problem. Instead, sound economic policies and conducive investment decisions are required to lay the foundations of long-term growth and development. Debt relief should be the option for only those countries that meet a minimum measurable criterion of good governance, economic freedom, and consistency of policies.

Keywords: external debt, debt burden, debt overhang, debt laffer curve, debt relief, investment decisions

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Authors: Bouthiba Amina

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The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

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Authors: Nima Mahmoudi, Hamzeh Khazaei

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Serving machine learning inference workloads on the cloud is still a challenging task at the production level. The optimal configuration of the inference workload to meet SLA requirements while optimizing the infrastructure costs is highly complicated due to the complex interaction between batch configuration, resource configurations, and variable arrival process. Serverless computing has emerged in recent years to automate most infrastructure management tasks. Workload batching has revealed the potential to improve the response time and cost-effectiveness of machine learning serving workloads. However, it has not yet been supported out of the box by serverless computing platforms. Our experiments have shown that for various machine learning workloads, batching can hugely improve the system’s efficiency by reducing the processing overhead per request. In this work, we present MLProxy, an adaptive reverse proxy to support efficient machine learning serving workloads on serverless computing systems. MLProxy supports adaptive batching to ensure SLA compliance while optimizing serverless costs. We performed rigorous experiments on Knative to demonstrate the effectiveness of MLProxy. We showed that MLProxy could reduce the cost of serverless deployment by up to 92% while reducing SLA violations by up to 99% that can be generalized across state-of-the-art model serving frameworks.

Keywords: serverless computing, machine learning, inference serving, Knative, google cloud run, optimization

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Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

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This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: TThailand tourism, Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information

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Authors: Huinan Zhang, Wenjie Jiang

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Accurate estimation of tropical cyclone intensity is of great importance for disaster prevention and mitigation. Existing techniques are largely based on satellite imagery data, and research and utilization of the inner thermal core structure characteristics of tropical cyclones still pose challenges. This paper presents a two-stage tropical cyclone intensity estimation network based on the fusion of coarse and fine-grained features from microwave brightness temperature data. The data used in this network are obtained from the thermal core structure of tropical cyclones through the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) inversion. Firstly, the thermal core information in the pressure direction is comprehensively expressed through the maximal intensity projection (MIP) method, constructing coarse-grained thermal core images that represent the tropical cyclone. These images provide a coarse-grained feature range wind speed estimation result in the first stage. Then, based on this result, fine-grained features are extracted by combining thermal core information from multiple view profiles with a distributed network and fused with coarse-grained features from the first stage to obtain the final two-stage network wind speed estimation. Furthermore, to better capture the long-tail distribution characteristics of tropical cyclones, focal loss is used in the coarse-grained loss function of the first stage, and ordinal regression loss is adopted in the second stage to replace traditional single-value regression. The selection of tropical cyclones spans from 2012 to 2021, distributed in the North Atlantic (NA) regions. The training set includes 2012 to 2017, the validation set includes 2018 to 2019, and the test set includes 2020 to 2021. Based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHS), this paper categorizes tropical cyclone levels into three major categories: pre-hurricane, minor hurricane, and major hurricane, with a classification accuracy rate of 86.18% and an intensity estimation error of 4.01m/s for NA based on this accuracy. The results indicate that thermal core data can effectively represent the level and intensity of tropical cyclones, warranting further exploration of tropical cyclone attributes under this data.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, deep learning, data mining, remote sensing

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Authors: Mahmoud Mohamed Emam

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In Oman the number of students referred for reading disabilities is on the rise. Schools serve these students by placement in the so-called learning disabilities unit. Recently the author led a strategic project to train teachers on the use of curriculum based measurement to identify students with reading disabilities in Oman. Additional the project involved training teachers to use phonemic awareness based activities to improve reading skills of those students. Phonemic awareness refers to the ability to notice, think about, and work with the individual sounds in words. We know that a student's skill in phonemic awareness is a good predictor of later reading success or difficulty. Using multiple baseline design across four participants the current studies investigated the effectiveness of using phonemic awareness based activities to improve decoding skills of third grade students referred for reading disabilities in Oman. During treatment students received phonemic awareness based activities that were designed to fulfill the idiosyncratic characteristics of Arabic language phonology as well as orthography. Results indicated that the phonemic awareness based activities were effective in substantially increasing the number of correctly decoded word for all four participants. Maintenance of strategy effects was evident for the weeks following the termination of intervention for the four students. In addition, the effects of intervention generalized to decoding novel words for all four participants.

Keywords: learning disabilities, phonemic awareness, third graders, Oman

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Authors: A. Bruce Janati, Muhammad Umair Khan, Naif Alghassab, Ibrahim Alzeir, Assem Mahmoud, M. Sammour

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Rationale: Lennox-Gastaut syndrome(LGS) is an electro-clinical syndrome composed of the triad of mental retardation, multiple seizure types, and the characteristic generalized slow spike-wave complexes in the EEG. In this article, we report on two patients with LGS whose brain MRI showed dysgenesis of corpus callosum(CC). We review the literature and stress the role of CC in the genesis of secondary bilateral synchrony(SBS). Method: This was a clinical study conducted at King Khalid Hospital. Results: The EEG was consistent with LGS in patient 1 and unilateral slow spike-wave complexes in patient 2. The MRI showed hypoplasia of the splenium of CC in patient 1, and global hypoplasia of CC combined with Joubert syndrome in patient 2. Conclusion: Based on the data, we proffer the following hypotheses: 1-Hypoplasia of CC interferes with functional integrity of this structure. 2-The genu of CC plays a pivotal role in the genesis of secondary bilateral synchrony. 3-Electrodecremental seizures in LGS emanate from pacemakers generated in the brain stem, in particular the mesencephalon projecting abnormal signals to the cortex via thalamic nuclei. 4-Unilateral slow spike-wave complexes in the context of mental retardation and multiple seizure types may represent a variant of LGS, justifying neuroimaging studies.

Keywords: EEG, Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, corpus callosum , MRI

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Authors: Luis Felipe Brito-Gaona, Emma M. Iglesias

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There is a growing literature that studies the main determinants and drivers of inequality and economic growth in several countries, using panel data and different estimation methods (fixed effects, Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Two Stages Least Squares (TSLS)). Recently, it was studied the evolution of these variables in the period 1980-2009 in the 18 countries of Latin-America and it was found that one of the main variables that explained their evolution was Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We extend this study to the year 2015 in the same 18 countries in Latin-America, and we find that FDI does not have a significant role anymore, while we find a significant negative and positive effect of schooling levels on inequality and economic growth respectively. We also find that the point estimates associated with human capital are the largest ones of the variables included in the analysis, and this means that an increase in human capital (measured by schooling levels of secondary education) is the main determinant that can help to reduce inequality and to increase economic growth in Latin-America. Therefore, we advise that economic policies in Latin-America should be directed towards increasing the level of education. We use the methodologies of estimating by fixed effects, GMM and TSLS to check the robustness of our results. Our conclusion is the same regardless of the estimation method we choose. We also find that the international recession in the Latin-American countries in 2008 reduced significantly their economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, human capital, inequality, Latin-America

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Authors: Charmaine Devinee Pillay

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Employees in both public and private sectors are expected to contribute significantly to the growth and development of the organization that employs them. Good working conditions are directly linked to the optimum output emanating from the workforce’s excellent performance. Insecurity, instability and lack of benefits negatively impact on the employees’ commitment to their job. This is a qualitative case study that comprised 40 “Contract Employees” (Academic and Supporting staff) in the Faculty of Health Sciences, Walter Sisulu University, Mthatha, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Questionnaire, as instrument of data collection, was used to obtain qualitative data. Data collected were categorized in themes and sub-themes for analyses and discussion. Findings showed that “contract Employees” are highly demoralized due to job insecurity and non-benefits, among other factors, which directly affect their overall output in discharging their duties. The case study at Walter Sisulu University typifies the generalized challenges faced by workers on contract basis in South Africa. It is therefore, recommended that employers hire their workforce on permanent basis or, where “Contract Employment “is inevitable, similar conditions that go with permanent employment should be incorporated in the contract terms of “Contract Employees”. This serves as impetus for optimum performance.

Keywords: contract employee, insecurity, instability, risk factors

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Authors: Tomer Gans-Or, Shmulik Pinkert

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The determination of lateral pile capacity per unit length is a key aspect in geotechnical engineering. Traditional approaches for assessing piles lateral capacity in cohesive soils involve the application of upper-bound and lower-bound plasticity theorems. However, a comprehensive solution encompassing the entire spectrum of soil strength parameters, particularly in frictional soils with or without cohesion, is still lacking. This research introduces an innovative implementation of the slice method limit equilibrium solution for lateral capacity assessment. For any given numerical discretization of the soil's domain around the pile, the lateral capacity evaluation is based on mobilized strength concept. The critical failure geometry is then found by a unique optimization procedure which includes both factor of safety minimization and geometrical optimization. The robustness of this suggested methodology is that the solution is independent of any predefined assumptions. Validation of the solution is accomplished through a comparison with established plasticity solutions for cohesive soils. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the applicability of the limit equilibrium method to address unresolved cases related to frictional and cohesive-frictional soils. Beyond providing capacity values, the method enables the utilization of the mobilized strength concept to generate safety-factor distributions for scenarios representing pre-failure states.

Keywords: lateral pile capacity, slice method, limit equilibrium, mobilized strength

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Authors: Jason Clarke, Michaela Porubanova, Angela Mazzoli, Gulsah Kut

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What accounts for our perception that time inexorably passes in one direction, from the past to the future, the so-called arrow of time, given that the laws of physics permit motion in one temporal direction to also happen in the reverse temporal direction? Modern physics says that the reason for time’s unidirectional physical arrow is the relationship between time and entropy, the degree of disorder in the universe, which is evolving from low entropy (high order; thermal disequilibrium) toward high entropy (high disorder; thermal equilibrium), the second law of thermodynamics. Accordingly, our perception of the direction of time, from past to future, is believed to emanate as a result of the natural evolution of entropy from low to high, with low entropy defining our notion of ‘before’ and high entropy defining our notion of ‘after’. Here we explored this proposed relationship between entropy and the perception of time’s arrow. We predicted that if the brain has some mechanism for detecting entropy, whose output feeds into processes involved in constructing our perception of the direction of time, presentation of violations to the expectation that low entropy defines ‘before’ and high entropy defines ‘after’ would alert this mechanism, leading to measurable behavioral effects, namely a disruption in duration perception. To test this hypothesis, participants were shown briefly-presented (1000 ms or 500 ms) computer-generated visual dynamic events: novel 3D shapes that were seen either to evolve from whole figures into parts (low to high entropy condition) or were seen in the reverse direction: parts that coalesced into whole figures (high to low entropy condition). On each trial, participants were instructed to reproduce the duration of their visual experience of the stimulus by pressing and releasing the space bar. To ensure that attention was being deployed to the stimuli, a secondary task was to report the direction of the visual event (forward or reverse motion). Participants completed 60 trials. As predicted, we found that duration reproduction was significantly longer for the high to low entropy condition compared to the low to high entropy condition (p=.03). This preliminary data suggests the presence of a neural mechanism that detects entropy, which is used by other processes to construct our perception of the direction of time or time’s arrow.

Keywords: time perception, entropy, temporal illusions, duration perception

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Authors: Sophie Kroeling, Agnetha Schuchardt

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Striving for sustainability brings a lot of challenges for different fields of interest, e. g. security or health concerns. In Germany, civil protection is predominantly carried out by emergency responders who perform essential tasks of civil protection. Based on theoretical concepts of different psychological stress theories this contribution focuses on the question, how the resilience of emergency responders can be improved. The goal is to identify resources and successful coping strategies that help to prevent and reduce negative outcomes during or after stressful events. The paper will present results from a qualitative analysis of semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 emergency responders. These results provide insights into the complexity of coping processes (e. g. controlling the situation, downplaying perceived personal threats through humor) and show the diversity of stressors (like complexity of the disastrous situation, intrusive press and media, or lack of social support within the organization). Self-efficacy expectation was a very important resource for coping with stressful situations. The results served as a starting point for a quantitative survey (that was conducted in March 2017), the development of education and training tools for emergency responders and the improvement of critical incident stress management processes. First results from the quantitative study with more than 700 participants show that, e. g., the emergency responders use social coping within their private social network and also within their aid organization and that both are correlated to resilience. Moreover, missing information, bureaucratic problems and social conflicts within the organization are events that the majority of the participants considered very onerous. Further results from regression analysis will be presented. The proposed paper will combine findings from the qualitative study with the quantitative results, illustrating figures and correlations with respective statements from the interviews. At the end, suggestions for the improvement of the emergency responder’s resilience are given and it is discussed how this can make a contribution to strive for civil security and furthermore a sustainable development.

Keywords: civil security, emergency responders, stress, resilience, resources

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Authors: Kashif Nesar Rather, Mantu Kumar Mahalik

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The discourse surrounding climate change has gained considerable traction, with a discernible emphasis on its nuanced and consequential impact on gender inequality. Concurrently, escalating global tensions are contributing to heightened uncertainty, potentially exerting influence on gender disparities. Within this framework, this study attempts to empirically investigate the implications of climate change and world uncertainty on the gender inequality for a balanced panel of 100 economies between 1995 to 2021. The estimated models also control for the effects of globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure. The panel cointegration tests establish a significant long-run relationship between the variables of the study. Furthermore, the PMG-ARDL (Panel mean group-Autoregressive distributed lag model) estimation technique confirms that both climate change and world uncertainty perpetuate the global gender inequalities. Additionally, the results establish that globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure exert a mitigating influence on gender inequality, signifying their role in diminishing gender disparities. These findings are further confirmed by the FGLS (Feasible Generalized Least Squares) and DKSE (Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors) regression methods. Potential policy implications for mitigating the detrimental gender ramifications stemming from climate change and rising world uncertainties are also discussed.

Keywords: gender inequality, world uncertainty, climate change, globalisation., ecological footprint

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Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the post mortem interval or PMI. Three days after the death, insect evidence is often the most accurate and sometimes the only method of determining elapsed time since death. This work presents the estimation of the PMI in an experiment to test the reliability of the accumulated degree days (ADD) method and the application of this method in a real case. The study was conducted at the Laboratory of Entomology at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie, Algeria. The domestic rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus L. was selected as the animal model. On 08th July 2012, the animal was killed. Larvae were collected and raised to adulthood. Estimation of oviposition time was calculated by summing up average daily temperatures minus minimum development temperature (also specific to each species). When the sum is reached, it corresponds to the oviposition day. Weather data were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. After rearing was accomplished, three species emerged: Lucilia sericata, Chrysomya albiceps, and Sarcophaga africa. For Chrysomya albiceps species, a cumulation of 186°C is necessary. The emergence of adults occured on 22nd July 2012. A value of 193.4°C is reached on 9th August 2012. Lucilia sericata species require a cumulation of 207°C. The emergence of adults occurred on 23rd, July 2012. A value of 211.35°C is reached on 9th August 2012. We should also consider that oviposition may occur more than 12 hours after death. Thus, the obtained PMI is in agreement with the actual time of death. We illustrate the use of this method during the investigation of a case of a decaying human body found on 03rd March 2015 in Bechar, South West of Algerian desert. Maggots were collected and sent to the Laboratory of Entomology. Lucilia sericata adults were identified on 24th March 2015 after emergence. A sum of 211.6°C was reached on 1st March 2015 which corresponds to the estimated day of oviposition. Therefore, the estimated date of death is 1st March 2015 ± 24 hours. The estimated PMI by accumulated degree days (ADD) method seems to be very precise. Entomological evidence should always be used in homicide investigations when the time of death cannot be determined by other methods.

Keywords: forensic entomology, accumulated degree days, postmortem interval, diptera, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 290