Search results for: multivariate distributions

Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: Mili Dutta, Lokender Prashad

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Introduction: Population ageing is a phenomenon that can be observed around the globe. The health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a measurement of health status of an individual, and it describes the effect of physical and mental health disorders on the well-being of a person. The present study is aimed to describe the influence of socio-economic characteristics of elderly on their health-related quality of life in India. Methods: EQ-5D instrument and population-based EQ-5D index score has been measured to access the HRQOL among elderly. Present study utilized the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) data which was conducted in 2007 in India. Multiple Logistic Regression model and Multivariate Linear Regression model has been employed. Result: In the present study, it was found that the female are more likely to have problems in mobility (OR=1.41, 95% Cl: 1.14 to 1.74), self-care (OR=1.26, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.56) and pain or discomfort (OR=1.50, 95% Cl: 1.16 to 1.94). Elderly residing in rural area are more likely to have problems in pain/discomfort (OR=1.28, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.62). More older and non-working elderly are more likely whereas higher educated and highest wealth quintile elderly are less likely to have problems in all the dimensions of EQ-5D viz. mobility, self-care, usual activity, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The present study has also shown that oldest old people, residing in rural area and currently not working elderly are more likely to report low EQ-5D index score whereas elderly with high education level and high wealth quintile are more likely to report high EQ-5D index score than their counterparts. Conclusion: The present study has found EQ-5D instrument as the valid measure for assessing the HRQOL of elderly in India. The study indicates socio-economic characteristics of elderly such as female, more older people, residing in rural area, non-educated, poor and currently non-working as the major risk groups of having poor HRQOL in India. Findings of the study will be helpful for the programmes and policy makers, researchers, academician and social workers who are working in the field of ageing.

Keywords: ageing, HRQOL, India, EQ-5D, SAGE, socio-economic characteristics

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Authors: Sabir Hussain, Muhammad Naeem, Yousif Aldryhim, Susan E. Halbert, Qingjun Wu

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Plant viruses annually cause severe economic losses in crop production and globally, different aphid species are responsible for the transmission of such viruses. Additionally, aphids are also serious pests of trees, and agricultural crops. Al Bahah Province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has a high native and introduced plant species with a temperate climate that provides ample habitats for aphids. In this study, we surveyed virus-transmitting aphids from the Province to highlight their spatial distributions and hot spot areas for their target control strategies. During our fifteen month's survey in Al Bahah Province, three hundred and seventy samples of aphids were collected using both beating sheets and yellow water pan traps. Consequently, fifty-four aphid species representing 30 genera belonging to four families were recorded from Al Bahah Province. Alarmingly, 35 aphid species from our records are virus transmitting species. The most common virus transmitting aphid species based on number of collecting samples, were Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas, 1878), Brachycaudus rumexicolens (Patch, 1917), Uroleucon sonchi (Linnaeus, 1767), Brachycaudus helichrysi (Kaltenbach, 1843), and Myzus persicae (Sulzer, 1776). The numbers of samples for the forementioned species were 66, 24, 23, 22, and 20, respectively. The widest range of plant hosts were found for M. euphorbiae (39 plant species), B. helichrysi (12 plant species), M. persicae (12 plant species), B. rumexicolens (10 plant species), and U. sonchi (9 plant species). The hottest spot areas were found in Al-Baha, Al Mekhwah and Biljarashi cities of the province on the basis of their abundance. This study indicated that Al Bahah Province has relatively rich aphid diversity due to the relatively high plant diversity in a favorable climatic condition. ArcGIS tools can be helpful for biologists to implement the target control strategies against these pests in the integrated pest management, and ultimately to save money and time.

Keywords: Al Bahah province, aphid-virus interaction, biodiversity, global information system

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Authors: Joelle Fong

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Older persons are at greatest risk of becoming frail. As survival to the age of 80 and beyond continues to increase, the health and frailty of older Americans has garnered much recent attention among policy makers and healthcare administrators. This paper examines patterns in old-age frailty within a multistate actuarial model that characterizes the stochastic process of biological ageing. Using aggregate population-level U.S. mortality data, we implement a stochastic aging model to examine cohort trends and gender differences in frailty distributions for older Americans born 1865 – 1894. The stochastic ageing model, which draws from the fields of actuarial science and gerontology, is well-established in the literature. The implications for public health insurance programs are also discussed. Our results suggest that, on average, women tend to be frailer than men at older ages and reveal useful insights about the magnitude of the male-female differential at critical age points. Specifically, we note that the frailty statuses of males and females are actually quite comparable from ages 65 to 80. Beyond age 80, however, the frailty levels start to diverge considerably implying that women are moving quicker into worse states of health than men. Tracking average frailty by gender over 30 successive birth cohorts, we also find that frailty levels for both genders follow a distinct peak-and-trough pattern. For instance, frailty among 85-year old American survivors increased in years 1954-1963, decreased in years 1964-1971, and again started to increase in years 1972-1979. A number of factors may have accounted for these cohort differences including differences in cohort life histories, differences in disease prevalence, differences in lifestyle and behavior, differential access to medical advances, as well as changes in environmental risk factors over time. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings on spending for long-term care programs within the broader health insurance system.

Keywords: actuarial modeling, cohort analysis, frail elderly, health

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Authors: Laura Rodríguez Amaya

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The impact of natural disasters on food security can be devastating, especially in rural settings where livelihoods are closely tied to their productive assets. In hazards studies, absorptive capacity is seen as a threshold that impacts the degree of people’s recovery after a natural disaster. Increasing our understanding of households’ capacity to absorb natural disaster shocks can provide the international community with viable measurements for assessing at-risk communities’ resilience to food insecurities. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors in determining a household’s capacity to absorb the impact of a natural disaster. This is an empirical study conducted in six communities in Costa Rica affected by earthquakes. The Earthquake Impact Index was developed for the selection of the communities in this study. The households coded as total loss in the selected communities constituted the sampling frame from which the sample population was drawn. Because of the study area geographically dispersion over a large surface, the stratified clustered sampling hybrid technique was selected. Of the 302 households identified as total loss in the six communities, a total of 126 households were surveyed, constituting 42 percent of the sampling frame. A list of indicators compiled based on theoretical and exploratory grounds for the absorptive capacity construct served to guide the survey development. These indicators were included in the following variables: (1) use of informal safety nets, (2) Coping Strategy, (3) Physical Connectivity, and (4) Infrastructure Damage. A multivariate data analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The results show that informal safety nets such as family and friends assistance exerted the greatest influence on the ability of households to absorb the impact of earthquakes. In conclusion, communities that experienced the highest environmental impact and human loss got disconnected from the social networks needed to absorb the shock’s impact. This resulted in higher levels of household food insecurity.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, earthquake, food security, rural

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Authors: Rudolf Hrach, Stanislav Novak, Vera Hrachova

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Composite and nanocomposite films represent the class of promising materials and are often objects of the study due to their mechanical, electrical and other properties. The most interesting ones are probably the composite metal/dielectric structures consisting of a metal component embedded in an oxide or polymer matrix. Behaviour of composite films varies with the amount of the metal component inside what is called filling factor. The structures contain individual metal particles or nanoparticles completely insulated by the dielectric matrix for small filling factors and the films have more or less dielectric properties. The conductivity of the films increases with increasing filling factor and finally a transition into metallic state occurs. The behaviour of composite films near a percolation threshold, where the change of charge transport mechanism from a thermally-activated tunnelling between individual metal objects to an ohmic conductivity is observed, is especially important. Physical properties of composite films are given not only by the concentration of metal component but also by the spatial and size distributions of metal objects which are influenced by a technology used. In our contribution, a study of composite structures with the help of methods of computational physics was performed. The study consists of two parts: -Generation of simulated composite and nanocomposite films. The techniques based on hard-sphere or soft-sphere models as well as on atomic modelling are used here. Characterizations of prepared composite structures by image analysis of their sections or projections follow then. However, the analysis of various morphological methods must be performed as the standard algorithms based on the theory of mathematical morphology lose their sensitivity when applied to composite films. -The charge transport in the composites was studied by the kinetic Monte Carlo method as there is a close connection between structural and electric properties of composite and nanocomposite films. It was found that near the percolation threshold the paths of tunnel current forms so-called fuzzy clusters. The main aim of the present study was to establish the correlation between morphological properties of composites/nanocomposites and structures of conducting paths in them in the dependence on the technology of composite films.

Keywords: composite films, computer modelling, image analysis, nanocomposite films

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Authors: Chante Van Tonder, Bart Bossink, Chris Schachtebeck, Cecile Nieuwenhuizen

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Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) play a key role in national economies around the world, being contributors to economic and social well-being. Due to this, the success, growth and competitiveness of SMEs are critical. However, there are many factors that undermine this, such as resource constraints, poor information communication infrastructure (ICT), skills shortages and poor management. The Fourth Industrial Revolution offers new tools and opportunities such as digital transformation and business model innovation (BMI) to the SME sector to enhance its competitiveness. Adopting and leveraging digital technologies such as cloud, mobile technologies, big data and analytics can significantly improve business efficiencies, value proposition and customer experiences. Digital transformation can contribute to the growth and competitiveness of SMEs. However, SMEs are lagging behind in the participation of digital transformation. Extant research lacks conceptual and empirical research on how digital transformation drives BMI and the impact it has on the growth and competitiveness of SMEs. The purpose of the study is, therefore, to close this gap by developing and empirically validating a conceptual model to determine if SMEs are achieving BMI through digital transformation and how this is impacting the growth, competitiveness and overall business performance. An empirical study is being conducted on 300 SMEs, consisting of 150 South-African and 150 Dutch SMEs, to achieve this purpose. Structural equation modeling is used, since it is a multivariate statistical analysis technique that is used to analyse structural relationships and is a suitable research method to test the hypotheses in the model. Empirical research is needed to gather more insight into how and if SMEs are digitally transformed and how BMI can be driven through digital transformation. The findings of this study can be used by SME business owners, managers and employees at all levels. The findings will indicate if digital transformation can indeed impact the growth, competitiveness and overall performance of an SME, reiterating the importance and potential benefits of adopting digital technologies. In addition, the findings will also exhibit how BMI can be achieved in light of digital transformation. This study contributes to the body of knowledge in a highly relevant and important topic in management studies by analysing the impact of digital transformation on BMI on a large number of SMEs that are distinctly different in economic and cultural factors

Keywords: business models, business model innovation, digital transformation, SMEs

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Authors: Amanda T. Badaró, Douglas F. Barbin, Sofia T. Garcia, Maria Teresa P. S. Clerici, Amanda R. Ferreira

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Food fortification is the intentional addition of a nutrient in a food matrix and has been widely used to overcome the lack of nutrients in the diet or increasing the nutritional value of food. Fortified food must meet the demand of the population, taking into account their habits and risks that these foods may cause. Wheat and its by-products, such as semolina, has been strongly indicated to be used as a food vehicle since it is widely consumed and used in the production of other foods. These products have been strategically used to add some nutrients, such as fibers. Methods of analysis and quantification of these kinds of components are destructive and require lengthy sample preparation and analysis. Therefore, the industry has searched for faster and less invasive methods, such as Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIR). NIR is a rapid and cost-effective method, however, it is based on indirect measurements, yielding high amount of data. Therefore, NIR spectroscopy requires calibration with mathematical and statistical tools (Chemometrics) to extract analytical information from the corresponding spectra, as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). PCA is well suited for NIR, once it can handle many spectra at a time and be used for non-supervised classification. Advantages of the PCA, which is also a data reduction technique, is that it reduces the data spectra to a smaller number of latent variables for further interpretation. On the other hand, LDA is a supervised method that searches the Canonical Variables (CV) with the maximum separation among different categories. In LDA, the first CV is the direction of maximum ratio between inter and intra-class variances. The present work used a portable infrared spectrometer (NIR) for identification and classification of pure and fiber-fortified semolina samples. The fiber was added to semolina in two different concentrations, and after the spectra acquisition, the data was used for PCA and LDA to identify and discriminate the samples. The results showed that NIR spectroscopy associate to PCA was very effective in identifying pure and fiber-fortified semolina. Additionally, the classification range of the samples using LDA was between 78.3% and 95% for calibration and 75% and 95% for cross-validation. Thus, after the multivariate analysis such as PCA and LDA, it was possible to verify that NIR associated to chemometric methods is able to identify and classify the different samples in a fast and non-destructive way.

Keywords: Chemometrics, fiber, linear discriminant analysis, near-infrared spectroscopy, principal component analysis, semolina

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Authors: G. Scremin, I. Y. Suh, S. Doukas

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Spectators follow their favorite sports teams for different reasons. While some attend a sporting event simply for its entertainment value, others do so because of the personal sense of achievement and accomplishment their connection with a sports team creates. Moreover, the level of identity spectators feel toward their favorite sports team falls in a broad continuum. Some are mere spectators. For those spectators, their association to a sports team has little impact on their self-image. Others are die-hard fans who are proud of their association with their team and whose connection with that team is an important reflection of who they are. Several motives for sports consumption can be used to explain the level of spectator support in a variety of sports. Those motives can also be used to explain the variance in the identification, attachment, and loyalty spectators feel toward their favorite sports team. Motives for sports consumption can be used to discriminate the degree of identification spectators have with their favorite sports team. In this study, motives for sports consumption was used to discriminate the level of identity spectators feel toward their sports team. It was hypothesized that spectators with a strong level of team identity would report higher rates of interest in player, interest in sports, and interest in team than spectators with a low level of team identity. And spectators with a low level of team identity would report higher rates for entertainment value, bonding with friends or family, and wholesome environment. Football spectators in the United States and England were surveyed about their motives for football consumption and their level of identification with their favorite football team. To assess if the motives of sports fans differed by level of team identity and allegiance to an American or English football team, a Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) under the General Linear Model (GLM) procedure found in SPSS was performed. The independent variables were level of team identity and allegiance to an American or English football team, and the dependent variables were the sport fan motives. A tripartite split (low, moderate, high) was used on a composite measure for team identity. Preliminary results show that effect of team identity is statistically significant (p < .001) for at least nine of the 17 motives for sports consumption assessed in this investigation. These results indicate that the motives of spectators with a strong level of team identity differ significantly from spectators with a low level of team identity. Those differences can be used to discriminate the degree of identification spectators have with their favorite sports team. Sports marketers can use these methods and results to develop identity profiles of spectators and create marketing strategies specifically designed to attract those spectators based on their unique motives for consumption and their level of team identification.

Keywords: fan identification, market segmentation of sports fans, motives for sports consumption, team identity

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Authors: Parimalah Velo, Ahmad Zakaria

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Introduction: Monte Carlo simulations of preclinical imaging systems allow opportunity to enable new research that could range from designing hardware up to discovery of new imaging application. The simulation system which could accurately model an imaging modality provides a platform for imaging developments that might be inconvenient in physical experiment systems due to the expense, unnecessary radiation exposures and technological difficulties. The aim of present study is to validate the Monte Carlo simulation of thyroid phantom imaging using Geant4-GATE for Siemen’s e-cam single head gamma camera. Upon the validation of the gamma camera simulation model by comparing physical characteristic such as energy resolution, spatial resolution, sensitivity, and dead time, the GATE simulation of thyroid phantom imaging is carried out. Methods: A thyroid phantom is defined geometrically which comprises of 2 lobes with 80mm in diameter, 1 hot spot, and 3 cold spots. This geometry accurately resembling the actual dimensions of thyroid phantom. A planar image of 500k counts with 128x128 matrix size was acquired using simulation model and in actual experimental setup. Upon image acquisition, quantitative image analysis was performed by investigating the total number of counts in image, the contrast of the image, radioactivity distributions on image and the dimension of hot spot. Algorithm for each quantification is described in detail. The difference in estimated and actual values for both simulation and experimental setup is analyzed for radioactivity distribution and dimension of hot spot. Results: The results show that the difference between contrast level of simulation image and experimental image is within 2%. The difference in the total count between simulation and actual study is 0.4%. The results of activity estimation show that the relative difference between estimated and actual activity for experimental and simulation is 4.62% and 3.03% respectively. The deviation in estimated diameter of hot spot for both simulation and experimental study are similar which is 0.5 pixel. In conclusion, the comparisons show good agreement between the simulation and experimental data.

Keywords: gamma camera, Geant4 application of tomographic emission (GATE), Monte Carlo, thyroid imaging

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Authors: William Marquis, Fang Dong

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There has been a growing concern in recent years over the economic and social effects of adult video gaming. It has been estimated that the number of people who played video games during the COVID-19 pandemic is close to three billion, and there is evidence that this form of entertainment is here to stay. Many people are concerned that this growing use of time could crowd out time that could be spent on alternative forms of entertainment with family, friends, sports, and other social activities that build community. For example, recent studies of children suggest that playing videogames crowds out time that could be spent on homework, watching TV, or in other social activities. Similar studies of adults have shown that video gaming is negatively associated with earnings, time spent at work, and socializing with others. The primary objective of this paper is to examine how time adults spend on video gaming could displace time they could spend working and on activities that enhance their health and well-being. We use data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to analyze the effects of time-use decisions on three measures of well-being. We pool the ATUS Well-being Module for multiple years, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2021, along with the ATUS Activity and Who files for these years. This pooled data set provides three broad measures of well-being, e.g., health, life satisfaction, and emotional well-being. Seven variants of each are used as a dependent variable in different multivariate regressions. We add to the existing literature in the following ways. First, we investigate whether the time adults spend in video gaming crowds out time spent working or in social activities that promote health and life satisfaction. Second, we investigate the relationship between adult gaming and their emotional well-being, also known as negative or positive affect, a factor that is related to depression, health, and labor market productivity. The results of this study suggest that the time adult gamers spend on video gaming has no effect on their supply of labor, a negligible effect on their time spent socializing and studying, and mixed effects on their emotional well-being, such as increasing feelings of pain and reducing feelings of happiness and stress.

Keywords: online gaming, health, social capital, emotional wellbeing

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Authors: Filip Rusak, Yulia Arzhaeva, Dadong Wang

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Machine learning based Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) is gaining much popularity in medical imaging and diagnostic radiology. However, it requires a large amount of high quality and labeled training image datasets. The training images may come from different sources and be acquired from different radiography machines produced by different manufacturers, digital or digitized copies of film radiographs, with various sizes as well as different pixel intensity distributions. In this paper, a content-aware image augmentation method is presented to deal with these variations. The results of the proposed method have been validated graphically by plotting the removed and added seams of pixels on original images. Two different chest X-ray (CXR) datasets are used in the experiments. The CXRs in the datasets defer in size, some are digital CXRs while the others are digitized from analog CXR films. With the proposed content-aware augmentation method, the Seam Carving algorithm is employed to resize CXRs and the corresponding labels in the form of image masks, followed by histogram matching used to normalize the pixel intensities of digital radiography, based on the pixel intensity values of digitized radiographs. We implemented the algorithms, resized the well-known Montgomery dataset, to the size of the most frequently used Japanese Society of Radiological Technology (JSRT) dataset and normalized our digital CXRs for testing. This work resulted in the unified off-the-shelf CXR dataset composed of radiographs included in both, Montgomery and JSRT datasets. The experimental results show that even though the amount of augmentation is large, our algorithm can preserve the important information in lung fields, local structures, and global visual effect adequately. The proposed method can be used to augment training and testing image data sets so that the trained machine learning model can be used to process CXRs from various sources, and it can be potentially used broadly in any medical imaging applications.

Keywords: computer-aided diagnosis, image augmentation, lung segmentation, medical imaging, seam carving

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Authors: Branka Milicic Stanic, Romana Mijovic

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In primary hyperparathyroidism, an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease may exist due to increased activity of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS). In adenomatous altered tissue of parathyroid gland, compared to normal tissue, there are two to fourfold increase in the expression of type 1 angiotensin II receptors. As there is a clear evidence of the independent role of aldosterone on the cardiovascular system, the aim of this study was to evaluate the existence of an association between aldosterone secretion and parathyroid hormone in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism. This study included 48 patients with elevated parathyroid hormone who had come to the Departement of Nuclear Medicine, Clinical Center of Vojvodina, for Parathyroid Scintigraphy. The control group consisted of 30 healthy subjects who matched age and gender to the study group. All the results were statistically processed by statistical package STATISTICA 14 (Statsoft Inc,Tulsa, OK, USA). The survey was conducted between February 2017 and April 2018 at the Departement of Nuclear Medicine and at the Departement for Endocinology Diagnoistics, in Clinical Center of Vojvodina, Novi Sad. Compared to the control group, the study group had statistically significantly higher values of aldosterone (p=0.028), total calcium (p=0.01), ionized calcium (p=0.003) and parathyroid hormone (N-TACT PTH) (p=0.00), while statistically a significant lower levels in the study group were for phosphorus (p=0.003) and vitamin D (p=0.04). A linear correlation analysis in the study group revealed a statistically significant degree of positive correlation between renin and N-TACT PTH (r=0.688, p<0.05); renin and calcium (r=0.673, p<0.05) and renin and ionized calcium (r=0.641, p<0.05). Serum aldosterone and parathyroid hormone levels (N-TACT) were correlated positively in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (r=0.509, p<0.05). According to the linear correlation analysis in the control group, aldosterone showed no positive correlation with N-TACT PTH (r=-0.285, p>0.05), as well as total and ionized calcium (r=-0.200, p>0.05; r=-0.313, p>0.05). In multivariate regression analysis of the study group, the strongest predictive variable of aldosterone secretion was N-TACT PTH (p=0.011). Aldosterone correlated positively to PTH levels in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, and the fact is that in these patients aldosterone might be a key mediator of cardiovascular symptoms. All this knowledge should help to find new treatments to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: aldosterone, hyperparathyroidism, parathyroid hormone, parathyroid gland

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Authors: Haobin Zheng, Xiang Zhang, Yong Shen, Hongxin Zou

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The research focuses on mode-locked fiber lasers with a non-linear amplifying loop mirror (NALM). Although these lasers have shown potential, they still have limitations in terms of low repetition rate. The self-starting of mode-locking in NALM is influenced by the cross-phase modulation (XPM) effect, which has not been thoroughly studied. The aim of this study is two-fold. First, to overcome the difficulties associated with increasing the repetition rate in mode-locked fiber lasers with NALM. Second, to analyze the influence of XPM on self-starting of mode-locking. The power distributions of two counterpropagating beams in the NALM and the differential non-linear phase shift (NPS) accumulations are calculated. The analysis is conducted from the perspective of NPS accumulation. The differential NPSs for continuous wave (CW) light and pulses in the fiber loop are compared to understand the inverse saturable absorption (ISA) mechanism during pulse formation in NALM. The study reveals a difference in differential NPSs between CW light and pulses in the fiber loop in NALM. This difference leads to an ISA mechanism, which has not been extensively studied in artificial saturable absorbers. The ISA in NALM provides an explanation for experimentally observed phenomena, such as active mode-locking initiation through tapping the fiber or fine-tuning light polarization. These findings have important implications for optimizing the design of NALM and reducing the self-starting threshold of high-repetition-rate mode-locked fiber lasers. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of NALM mode-locked fiber lasers by exploring the ISA mechanism and its impact on self-starting of mode-locking. The research fills a gap in the existing knowledge regarding the XPM effect in NALM and its role in pulse formation. This study provides insights into the ISA mechanism in NALM mode-locked fiber lasers and its role in selfstarting of mode-locking. The findings contribute to the optimization of NALM design and the reduction of self-starting threshold, which are essential for achieving high-repetition-rate operation in fiber lasers. Further research in this area can lead to advancements in the field of mode-locked fiber lasers with NALM.

Keywords: inverse saturable absorption, NALM, mode-locking, non-linear phase shift

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Ching-Hsiang Chen, Wei-Ting Hsu

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The purposes of the study were to explore the students' learning effect of physical education curriculum between merging Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model, which these learning effects included sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion, responsibility and game performance. The participants include 3 high school physical education teachers and 6 physical education classes, 133 participants with experience group 75 students and control group 58 students, and each teacher taught an experimental group and a control group for 16 weeks. The research methods used questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments included personal and social responsibility questionnaire, sport enthusiastic scale, group cohesion scale, sport self-efficacy scale and game performance assessment instrument. Multivariate Analysis of covariance and Repeated measure ANOVA were used to test difference of students' learning effects between merging TPSR with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model. The findings of research were: 1) The sport education model with TPSR could improve students' learning effects, including sport self-efficacy, game performance, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion and responsibility. 2) The traditional teaching model with TPSR could improve students' learning effect, including sport self-efficacy, responsibility and game performance. 3) the sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects than traditional teaching model with TPSR, including sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic,responsibility and game performance. 4) Based on qualitative data about learning experience of teachers and students, sport education model with TPSR significant improve learning motivation, group interaction and game sense. The conclusions indicated sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects in physical education curriculum. On other hand, the curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model and TPSR-Traditional Teaching model are both good curricular projects of moral character education, which may be applied in school physical education.

Keywords: character education, sport season, game performance, sport competence

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Authors: Muhammad Asim, Mehvish Amjad

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Background: Less than half of women in South Asia (SA) use any modern contraceptive method which leads to a huge burden of unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, maternal deaths, and socioeconomic loss. Women empowerment plays a pivotal role in improving various health seeking behaviours, including contraceptive use. The objective of this study to explore the association between women's empowerment and modern contraceptive, among rich and poor segment of population in SA. Methods: We used the most recent, large-scale, demographic health survey data of five South Asian countries, namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. The outcome variable was the current use of modern contraceptive methods. The main exposure variable was a combination (interaction) of socio-economic status (SES) and women’s level of empowerment (low, medium, and high), where SES was bifurcated into poor and rich; and women empowerment was divided into three categories: decision making, attitude to violence and social independence. Moreover, overall women empowerment indicator was also created by using three dimensions of women empowerment. We applied both descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression techniques for data analyses. Results: Most of the women possessed ‘medium’ level of empowerment across South Asian Countries. The lowest attitude to violence empowerment was found in Afghanistan, and the lowest social independence empowerment was observed in Bangladesh across SA. However, Pakistani women have the lowest decision-making empowerment in the region. The lowest modern contraceptive use (22.1%) was found in Afghanistan and the highest (53.2%) in Bangladesh. The multivariate results depict that the overall measure of women empowerment does not affect modern contraceptive use among poor and rich women in most of South Asian countries. However, the decision-making empowerment plays a significant role among both poor and rich women to use modern contraceptive methods across South Asian countries. Conclusions: The effect of women’s empowerment on modern contraceptive use is not consistent across countries, and among poor and rich segment of population. Of the three dimensions of women’s empowerment, the autonomy of decision making in household affairs emerged as a stronger determinant of mCPR as compared with social independence and attitude towards violence against women.

Keywords: women empowerment, modern contraceptive use, South Asia, socio economic status

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Authors: Mohamed Korany, Azza Gazy, Essam Khamis, Marwa Adel, Miranda Fawzy

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Background: Two new, simple and specific methods; First, a Zero-crossing first-derivative technique and second, a chemometric-assisted spectrophotometric artificial neural network (ANN) were developed and validated in accordance with ICH guidelines. Both methods were used for the simultaneous estimation of the two closely related antioxidant nutraceuticals ; Coenzyme Q10 (Q) ; also known as Ubidecarenone or Ubiquinone-10, and Vitamin E (E); alpha-tocopherol acetate, in their pharmaceutical binary mixture. Results: For first method: By applying the first derivative, both Q and E were alternatively determined; each at the zero-crossing of the other. The D1 amplitudes of Q and E, at 285 nm and 235 nm respectively, were recorded and correlated to their concentrations. The calibration curve is linear over the concentration range of 10-60 and 5.6-70 μg mL-1 for Q and E, respectively. For second method: ANN (as a multivariate calibration method) was developed and applied for the simultaneous determination of both analytes. A training set (or a concentration set) of 90 different synthetic mixtures containing Q and E, in wide concentration ranges between 0-100 µg/mL and 0-556 µg/mL respectively, were prepared in ethanol. The absorption spectra of the training sets were recorded in the spectral region of 230–300 nm. A Gradient Descend Back Propagation ANN chemometric calibration was computed by relating the concentration sets (x-block) to their corresponding absorption data (y-block). Another set of 45 synthetic mixtures of the two drugs, in defined range, was used to validate the proposed network. Neither chemical separation, preparation stage nor mathematical graphical treatment were required. Conclusions: The proposed methods were successfully applied for the assay of Q and E in laboratory prepared mixtures and combined pharmaceutical tablet with excellent recoveries. The ANN method was superior over the derivative technique as the former determined both drugs in the non-linear experimental conditions. It also offers rapidity, high accuracy, effort and money saving. Moreover, no need for an analyst for its application. Although the ANN technique needed a large training set, it is the method of choice in the routine analysis of Q and E tablet. No interference was observed from common pharmaceutical additives. The results of the two methods were compared together

Keywords: coenzyme Q10, vitamin E, chemometry, quantitative analysis, first derivative spectrophotometry, artificial neural network

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Authors: Li-Ching Lin, Yu-Tzu Dai

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Recurrent foot ulcers or foot amputation have a major impact on patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), medical professionals, and society. A critical procedure for foot care is foot self-monitoring. Medical professionals’ understanding of patients’ foot self-monitoring knowledge, attitude, and practice is beneficial for raising patients’ disease awareness. This study investigated these and related factors among patients with DM through a descriptive study of the correlations. A scale for measuring the foot self-monitoring knowledge, attitude, and practice of patients with DM was used. Purposive sampling was adopted, and 100 samples were collected from the respondents’ self-reports or from interviews. The statistical methods employed were an independent-sample t-test, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson correlation coefficient, and multivariate regression analysis. The findings were as follows: the respondents scored an average of 12.97 on foot self-monitoring knowledge, and the correct answer rate was 68.26%. The respondents performed relatively lower in foot health screenings and recording, and awareness of neuropathy in the foot. The respondents held a positive attitude toward self-monitoring their feet and a negative attitude toward having others check the soles of their feet. The respondents scored an average of 12.64 on foot self-monitoring practice. Their scores were lower in their frequency of self-monitoring their feet, recording their self-monitoring results, checking their pedal pulse, and examining if their soles were red immediately after taking off their shoes. Significant positive correlations were observed among foot self-monitoring knowledge, attitude, and practice. The correlation coefficient between self-monitoring knowledge and self-monitoring practice was 0.20, and that between self-monitoring attitude and self-monitoring practice was 0.44. Stepwise regression analysis revealed that the main predictive factors of the foot self-monitoring practice in patients with DM were foot self-monitoring attitude, prior experience in foot care, and an educational attainment of college or higher. These factors predicted 33% of the variance. This study concludes that patients with DM lacked foot self-monitoring practice and advises that the patients’ self-monitoring abilities be evaluated first, including whether patients have poor eyesight, difficulties in bending forward due to obesity, and people who can assist them in self-monitoring. In addition, patient education should emphasize self-monitoring knowledge and practice, such as perceptions regarding the symptoms of foot neurovascular lesions, pulse monitoring methods, and new foot self-monitoring equipment. By doing so, new or recurring ulcers may be discovered in their early stages.

Keywords: diabetic foot, foot self-monitoring attitude, foot self-monitoring knowledge, foot self-monitoring practice

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Authors: V. Batishchev, V. Getman

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We study the self-similar fluid flows in the Marangoni layers with the axial symmetry. Such flows are induced by the radial gradients of the temperatures whose distributions along the free boundary obey some power law. The self-similar solutions describe thermo-capillar flows both in the thin layers and in the case of infinite thickness. We consider both positive and negative temperature gradients. In the former case the cooling of free boundary nearby the axis of symmetry gives rise to the rotation of fluid. The rotating flow concentrates itself inside the Marangoni layer while outside of it the fluid does not revolve. In the latter case we observe no rotating flows at all. In the layers of infinite thickness the separation of the rotating flow creates two zones where the flows are directed oppositely. Both the longitudinal velocity and the temperature have exactly one critical point inside the boundary layer. It is worth to note that the profiles are monotonic in the case of non-swirling flows. We describe the flow outside the boundary layer with the use of self-similar solution of the Euler equations. This flow is slow and non-swirling. The introducing of an outer flow gives rise to the branching of swirling flows from the non-swirling ones. There is such the critical velocity of the outer flow that a non-swirling flow exists for supercritical velocities and cannot be extended to the sub-critical velocities. For the positive temperature gradients there are two non-swirling flows. For the negative temperature gradients the non-swirling flow is unique. We determine the critical velocity of the outer flow for which the branching of the swirling flows happens. In the case of a thin layer confined within free boundaries we show that the cooling of the free boundaries near the axis of symmetry leads to the separating of the layer and creates two sub-layers with opposite rotations inside. This makes sharp contrast with the case of infinite thickness. We show that such rotation arises provided the thickness of the layer exceed some critical value. In the case of a thin layer confined within free and rigid boundaries we construct the branching equation and the asymptotic approximation for the secondary swirling flows near the bifurcation point. It turns out that the bifurcation gives rise to one pair of the secondary swirling flows with different directions of swirl.

Keywords: free surface, rotation, fluid flow, bifurcation, boundary layer, Marangoni layer

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Authors: Tanu Khanuja, Harikrishnan N. Unni

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Head is the most vulnerable part of human body and may cause severe life threatening injuries. As the in vivo brain response cannot be recorded during injury, computational investigation of the head model could be really helpful to understand the injury mechanism. Majority of the physical damage to living tissues are caused by relative motion within the tissue due to tensile and shearing structural failures. The present Finite Element study focuses on investigating intracranial pressure and stress/strain distributions resulting from impact loads on various sites of human head. This is performed by the development of the 3D model of a human head with major segments like cerebrum, cerebellum, brain stem, CSF (cerebrospinal fluid), and skull from patient specific MRI (magnetic resonance imaging). The semi-automatic segmentation of head is performed using AMIRA software to extract finer grooves of the brain. To maintain the accuracy high number of mesh elements are required followed by high computational time. Therefore, the mesh optimization has also been performed using tetrahedral elements. In addition, model validation with experimental literature is performed as well. Hard tissues like skull is modeled as elastic whereas soft tissues like brain is modeled with viscoelastic prony series material model. This paper intends to obtain insights into the severity of brain injury by analyzing impacts on frontal, top, back, and temporal sites of the head. Yield stress (based on von Mises stress criterion for tissues) and intracranial pressure distribution due to impact on different sites (frontal, parietal, etc.) are compared and the extent of damage to cerebral tissues is discussed in detail. This paper finds that how the back impact is more injurious to overall head than the other. The present work would be helpful to understand the injury mechanism of traumatic brain injury more effectively.

Keywords: dynamic impact analysis, finite element analysis, intracranial pressure, MRI, traumatic brain injury, von Misses stress

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Authors: Chia Yu Chen, Shu Fen Wu, Chen-Fuh Lam, I-Ling Tsai, Shu Jiuan Chen, Yen Ling Liu

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Aim: It remains undetermined that whether increased work stress may affect the job satisfaction and career loyalty among nursing staffs in the operating room. The long-term goal of this study is to lengthen the professional life of operating room nurses by attenuating the work stress and enhancing their contentment in work. Method: This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study performed in a metropolitan teaching hospital in the southern Taiwan between May 2017 to July 2017. A structured self-administered questionnaire, modified from the Occupational Stress Indicator-2 (OSI-2) and Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) manual was collected from the operating room nurses. Chi-square test was used to analyze the categorical data and Pearson correlation was used to analyze the association between two numerical datasets (SPSS version 20.0). Results: The response rate was 80% (80/100) and a total of 73 (73%) completed forms were eventually proceeded for analysis. The average scores for work stress and job satisfaction of the operating room nurses were 145.96±32.91 and 47.38±6.07, respectively. The correlation coefficients of work stress versus job satisfaction and organizational identity were (r=-0.338, p=0.003 and r=-0.354, p=0.002), respectively. There were more nurses who took rotating shift quitted works from the operating room than those who took only dayshift (2＝5.176, p<0.05). Nurses who reported of having lower job satisfaction were associated with significantly higher turnover intention (t=3.714, p< 0.01). Following multivariate regression analysis, rotating shift and low job satisfaction were identified as the two independent predictors of intention to quit from working in the operating room. Conclusion: Our study clearly demonstrates that increased work stress significantly attenuates job satisfaction and organizational identity. Rotating shift is associated with higher work stress, lower job satisfaction, and higher turnover intention, which is consistent with the previous surveys carried out in the department of medical technology. Therefore, improvement of working quality in the operating rooms is essential to increase the retain intention of the well-trained nursing staffs. Further investigation into types of work shifts and other strategies of attenuating stress in workplace is currently undertaken in order to improve the job satisfaction and to decrease turnover intention in the operating room.

Keywords: rotating shift, work stress, job satisfaction, turnover intention

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Authors: Getahun Nigusie

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Background; antiretroviral treatment reduce HIV-related morbidity, and prolonged survival of patients however, there is lack of up-to-date information concerning the treatment long term effect on the survival of HIV positive children especially in the study area. Objective: To assess incidence and predictors of mortality among HIV positive children on ART in public hospitals of Harer town who were enrolled from 2011 to 2021. Methodology: Institution based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 HIV positive children enrolled in ART clinic from January 1st 2011 to December30th 2021. Data were collected from medical cards by using a data extraction form, Descriptive analyses were used to Summarized the results, and life table was used to estimate survival probability at specific point of time after introduction of ART. Kaplan Meier survival curve together with log rank test was used to compare survival between different categories of covariates, and Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate adjusted Hazard rate. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. Results: The study participants had followed for a total of 2549.6 child-years (30596 child months) with an overall mortality rate of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.04) per 100 child-years. Their median survival time was 112 months (95% CI: 101–117). There were 38 children with unknown outcome, 39 deaths, and 55 children transfer out to different facility. The overall survival at 6, 12, 24, 48 months were 98%, 96%, 95%, 94% respectively. being in WHO clinical Stage four (AHR=4.55, 95% CI:1.36, 15.24), having anemia(AHR=2.56, 95% CI:1.11, 5.93), baseline low absolute CD4 count (AHR=2.95, 95% CI: 1.22, 7.12), stunting (AHR=4.1, 95% CI: 1.11, 15.42), wasting (AHR=4.93, 95% CI: 1.31, 18.76), poor adherence to treatment (AHR=3.37, 95% CI: 1.25, 9.11), having TB infection at enrollment (AHR=3.26, 95% CI: 1.25, 8.49),and no history of change their regimen(AHR=7.1, 95% CI: 2.74, 18.24), were independent predictors of death. Conclusion: more than half of death occurs within 2 years. Prevalent tuberculosis, anemia, wasting, and stunting nutritional status, socioeconomic factors, and baseline opportunistic infection were independent predictors of death. Increasing early screening and managing those predictors are required.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus-positive children, anti-retroviral therapy, survival, Ethiopia

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Authors: J. Niyitegeka, G. Nshimirimana, A. Silverstein, J. Odhiambo, Y. Lin, T. Nkurunziza, R. Riviello, S. Rulisa, P. Banguti, H. Magge, M. Macharia, J. P. Dushime, R. Habimana, B. Hedt-Gauthier

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In low-resource settings, women needing an emergency cesarean section experiences various delays in both reaching and receiving care that is often linked to poor neonatal outcomes. In this study, we quantified different measures of delays and assessed the association between these delays and neonatal outcomes at three rural district hospitals in Rwanda. This retrospective study included 441 neonates and their mothers who underwent emergency cesarean sections in 2015 at Butaro, Kirehe and Rwinkwavu District Hospitals. Four possible delays were measured: Time from start of labor to district hospital admission, travel time from a health center to the district hospital, time from admission to surgical incision, and time from the decision for the emergency cesarean section to surgical incision. Neonatal outcomes were categorized as unfavorable (APGAR < 7 or death) and favorable (APGAR ≥ 7). We assessed the relationship between each type of delay and neonatal outcomes using multivariate logistic regression. In our study, 38.7% (108 out of 279) of neonates’ mothers labored for 12 to 24 hours before hospital admission and 44.7% (159 of 356) of mothers were transferred from health centers that required 30 to 60 minutes of travel time to reach the district hospital. 48.1% (178 of 370) of caesarean sections started within five hours after admission and 85.2% (288 of 338) started more than thirty minutes after the decision for the emergency cesarean section was made. Neonatal outcomes were significantly worse among mothers with more than 90 minutes of travel time from the health center to the district hospital compared to health centers attached to the hospital (OR = 5.12, p = 0.02). Neonatal outcomes were also significantly different depending on decision to incision intervals; neonates with cesarean deliveries starting more than thirty minutes after decision had better outcomes than those started immediately (OR = 0.32, p = 0.04). Interventions that decrease barriers to access to maternal health care services can improve neonatal outcome after emergency cesarean section. Triaging could explain the inverse relationship between time from decision to incision and neonatal outcome; this must be studied more in the future.

Keywords: Africa, emergency obstetric care, rural health delivery, maternal and child health

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Authors: Jui-Teng Liao

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The selected-response (SR) format has been commonly adopted to assess academic reading in both formal and informal testing (i.e., standardized assessment and classroom assessment) because of its strengths in content validity, construct validity, as well as scoring objectivity and efficiency. When developing a second language (L2) reading test, researchers indicate that the longer the test (e.g., more test items) is, the higher reliability and validity the test is likely to produce. However, previous studies have not provided specific guidelines regarding the optimal length of a test or the most suitable number of test items or reading passages. Additionally, reading tests often include different question types (e.g., factual, vocabulary, inferential) that require varying degrees of reading comprehension and cognitive processes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of question types on the number of items in relation to the score reliability of L2 reading tests. Given the popularity of the SR question format and its impact on assessment results on teaching and learning, it is necessary to investigate the degree to which such a question format can reliably measure learners’ L2 reading comprehension. The present study, therefore, adopted the generalizability (G) theory to investigate the score reliability of the SR format in L2 reading tests focusing on how many test items a reading test should include. Specifically, this study aimed to investigate the interaction between question types and the number of items, providing insights into the appropriate item count for different types of questions. G theory is a comprehensive statistical framework used for estimating the score reliability of tests and validating their results. Data were collected from 108 English as a second language student who completed an English reading test comprising factual, vocabulary, and inferential questions in the SR format. The computer program mGENOVA was utilized to analyze the data using multivariate designs (i.e., scenarios). Based on the results of G theory analyses, the findings indicated that the number of test items had a critical impact on the score reliability of an L2 reading test. Furthermore, the findings revealed that different types of reading questions required varying numbers of test items for reliable assessment of learners’ L2 reading proficiency. Further implications for teaching practice and classroom-based assessments are discussed.

Keywords: second language reading assessment, validity and reliability, Generalizability theory, Academic reading, Question format

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Authors: Mohamad Amin Amini, Mehdi Poursha

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Nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) is a robust analytical tool for estimating the seismic demands of structures responding in the inelastic range. However, because of its conceptual and numerical complications, the nonlinear static procedure (NSP) is being increasingly used as a suitable tool for seismic performance evaluation of structures. The conventional pushover analysis methods presented in various codes (FEMA 356; Eurocode-8; ATC-40), are limited to the first-mode-dominated structures, and cannot take higher modes effect into consideration. Therefore, since more than a decade ago, researchers developed enhanced pushover analysis procedures to take higher modes effect into account. The main objective of this study is to propose an enhanced invariant lateral displacement distribution to take higher modes effect into consideration in performing a displacement-based pushover analysis, whereby a set of laterally applied displacements, rather than forces, is monotonically applied to the structure. For this purpose, the effect of different parameters such as the spectral displacement of ground motion, the modal participation factor, and the effective modal participating mass ratio on the lateral displacement distribution is investigated to find the best distribution. The major simplification of this procedure is that the effect of higher modes is concentrated into a single invariant lateral load distribution. Therefore, only one pushover analysis is sufficient without any need to utilize a modal combination rule for combining the responses. The invariant lateral displacement distribution for pushover analysis is then calculated by combining the modal story displacements using the modal combination rules. The seismic demands resulting from the different procedures are compared to those from the more accurate nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) as a benchmark solution. Two structures of different heights including 10 and 20-story special steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) were selected and evaluated. Twenty ground motion records were used to conduct the NL-RHA. The results show that more accurate responses can be obtained in comparison with the conventional lateral loads when the enhanced modal lateral displacement distributions are used.

Keywords: displacement-based pushover, enhanced lateral load distribution, higher modes effect, nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA)

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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The relation between stock price volatility and trading volume represents a controversial issue which has received a remarkable attention over the past decades. In fact, an extensive literature shows a positive relation between price volatility and trading volume in the financial markets, but the causal relationship which originates such association is an open question, from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In this regard, various models, which can be considered as complementary rather than competitive, have been introduced to explain this relationship. They include the long debated Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH); the Sequential Arrival of Information Hypothesis (SAIH); the Dispersion of Beliefs Hypothesis (DBH); the Noise Trader Hypothesis (NTH). In this work, we analyze whether stock market efficiency can explain the diversity of results achieved during the years. For this purpose, we propose an alternative measure of market efficiency, based on the pointwise regularity of a stochastic process, which is the Hurst–H¨older dynamic exponent. In particular, we model the stock market by means of the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) that displays the property of a time-changing regularity. Mostly, such models have in common the fact that they locally behave as a fractional Brownian motion, in the sense that their local regularity at time t0 (measured by the local Hurst–H¨older exponent in a neighborhood of t0 equals the exponent of a fractional Brownian motion of parameter H(t0)). Assuming that the stock price follows an mBm, we introduce and theoretically justify the Hurst–H¨older dynamical exponent as a measure of market efficiency. This allows to measure, at any time t, markets’ departures from the martingale property, i.e. from efficiency as stated by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This approach is applied to financial markets; using data for the SP500 index from 1978 to 2017, on the one hand we find that when efficiency is not accounted for, a positive contemporaneous relationship emerges and is stable over time. Conversely, it disappears as soon as efficiency is taken into account. In particular, this association is more pronounced during time frames of high volatility and tends to disappear when market becomes fully efficient.

Keywords: volume–volatility relationship, efficient market hypothesis, martingale model, Hurst–Hölder exponent

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Authors: Mitchell J. Baum, Badin Gibbes, Greg Collecutt

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This study details a three-dimensional field-scale numerical investigation conducted for the Gold Coast Desalination Plant (GCDP) offshore multiport brine diffuser. Quantitative assessment of diffuser performance with regard to trajectory, dilution and mapping of seafloor concentration distributions was conducted for 100% plant operation. The quasi-steady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed using the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations with a k-ω shear stress transport turbulence closure scheme. The study compliments a field investigation, which measured brine plume characteristics under similar conditions. CFD models used an iterative mesh in a domain with dimensions 400 m long, 200 m wide and an average depth of 24.2 m. Acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements conducted in the companion field study exhibited considerable variability over the water column. The effect of this vertical variability on simulated discharge outcomes was examined. Seafloor slope was also accommodated into the model. Ambient currents varied predominantly in the longshore direction – perpendicular to the diffuser structure. Under these conditions, the alternating port orientation of the GCDP diffuser resulted in simultaneous subjection to co-propagating and counter-propagating ambient regimes. Results from quiescent ambient simulations suggest broad agreement with empirical scaling arguments traditionally employed in design and regulatory assessments. Simulated dynamic ambient regimes showed the influence of ambient crossflow upon jet trajectory, dilution and seafloor concentration is significant. The effect of ambient flow structure and the subsequent influence on jet dynamics is discussed, along with the implications for using these different simulation approaches to inform regulatory decisions.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, desalination, field-scale simulation, multiport brine diffuser, negatively buoyant jet

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Authors: Paul V. Thomas, Mostafa S. A. Elsayed, Denis Walch

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Airframe structural optimization at different design stages results in new mass and stiffness distributions which modify the critical design loads envelop. Determination of aircraft critical loads is an extensive analysis procedure which involves simulating the aircraft at thousands of load cases as defined in the certification requirements. It is computationally prohibitive to use a Global Finite Element Model (GFEM) for the load analysis, hence reduced order structural models are required which closely represent the dynamic characteristics of the GFEM. This paper presents the implementation of Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) method for the generation of high fidelity Reduced Order Model (ROM) of complex airframes. Here, sub-structuring technique is used to divide the complex higher order airframe dynamical system into a set of subsystems. Each subsystem is reduced to fewer degrees of freedom using matrix projection onto a carefully chosen reduced order basis subspace. The reduced structural matrices are assembled for all the subsystems through interface coupling and the dynamic response of the total system is solved. The CMS method is employed to develop the ROM of a Bombardier Aerospace business jet which is coupled with an aerodynamic model for dynamic aeroelasticity loads analysis under gust turbulence. Another set of dynamic aeroelastic loads is also generated employing a stick model of the same aircraft. Stick model is the reduced order modelling methodology commonly used in the aerospace industry based on stiffness generation by unitary loading application. The extracted aeroelastic loads from both models are compared against those generated employing the GFEM. Critical loads Modal participation factors and modal characteristics of the different ROMs are investigated and compared against those of the GFEM. Results obtained show that the ROM generated using Craig Bampton CMS reduction process has a superior dynamic characteristics compared to the stick model.

Keywords: component mode synthesis, craig bampton reduction method, dynamic aeroelasticity analysis, model order reduction

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Authors: Roberto Rosenhaim, Marcos Antonio Crus Moreira, Robson da Cunha, Gerson Gomes Cunha

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This work provides details on the wind speed behavior within cities of Arraial do Cabo and São Pedro da Aldeia located in the Lakes Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This region has one of the best potentials for wind power generation. In interurban layer, wind conditions are very complex and depend on physical geography, size and orientation of buildings and constructions around, population density, and land use. In the same context, the fundamental surface parameter that governs the production of flow turbulence in urban canyons is the surface roughness. Such factors can influence the potential for power generation from the wind within the cities. Moreover, the use of wind on a small scale is not fully utilized due to complexity of wind flow measurement inside the cities. It is difficult to accurately predict this type of resource. This study demonstrates how fuzzy logic can facilitate the assessment of the complexity of the wind potential inside the cities. It presents a decision support tool and its ability to deal with inaccurate information using linguistic variables created by the heuristic method. It relies on the already published studies about the variables that influence the wind speed in the urban environment. These variables were turned into the verbal expressions that are used in computer system, which facilitated the establishment of rules for fuzzy inference and integration with an application for smartphones used in the research. In the first part of the study, challenges of the sustainable development which are described are followed by incentive policies to the use of renewable energy in Brazil. The next chapter follows the study area characteristics and the concepts of fuzzy logic. Data were collected in field experiment by using qualitative and quantitative methods for assessment. As a result, a map of the various points is presented within the cities studied with its wind viability evaluated by a system of decision support using the method multivariate classification based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: behavior of winds, wind power, fuzzy logic, sustainable development

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Authors: Emiru Birhane, Tesfay Gidey, Haftu Abrha, Abrha Brhan, Amanuel Zenebe, Girmay Gebresamuel, Florent Noulèkoun

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Dracaena ombet and Dobera glabra are two of the most rare and endangered tree species in dryland areas. Unfortunately, their sustainability is being compromised by different anthropogenic and natural factors. However, the impacts of ongoing land use and climate change on the population structure and distribution of the species are less explored. This study was carried out in the grazing lands and hillside areas of the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest, northern Ethiopia, to characterize the population structure of the species and predict the impact of climate change on their potential distributions. In each land-use type, abundance, diameter at breast height, and height of the trees were collected using 70 sampling plots distributed over seven transects spaced one km apart. The geographic coordinates of each individual tree were also recorded. The results showed that the species populations were characterized by low abundance and unstable population structure. The latter was evinced by a lack of seedlings and mature trees. The study also revealed that the total abundance and dendrometric traits of the trees were significantly different between the two land uses. The hillside areas had a denser abundance of bigger and taller trees than the grazing lands. Climate change predictions using the MaxEnt model highlighted that future temperature increases coupled with reduced precipitation would lead to significant reductions in the suitable habitats of the species in northern Ethiopia. The species' suitable habitats were predicted to decline by 48–83% for D. ombet and 35–87% for D. glabra. Hence, to sustain the species populations, different strategies should be adopted, namely the introduction of alternative livelihoods (e.g., gathering NTFP) to reduce the overexploitation of the species for subsistence income and the protection of the current habitats that will remain suitable in the future using community-based exclosures. Additionally, the preservation of the species' seeds in gene banks is crucial to ensure their long-term conservation.

Keywords: grazing lands, hillside areas, land-use change, MaxEnt, range limitation, rare and endangered tree species

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