Search results for: model estimation

Authors: D. Mohammadzadeh S., J. Bolouri Bazaz

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This paper presents a new prediction model for compression index of fine-grained soils using multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. The proposed model relates the soil compression index to its liquid limit, plastic limit and void ratio. Several laboratory test results for fine-grained were used to develop the models. Various criteria were considered to check the validity of the model. The parametric and sensitivity analyses were performed and discussed. The MGGP method was found to be very effective for predicting the soil compression index. A comparative study was further performed to prove the superiority of the MGGP model to the existing soft computing and traditional empirical equations.

Keywords: new prediction model, compression index soil, multi-gene genetic programming, MGGP

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Authors: Siriluk Ruangrungrote

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Analyses of available data from MFR-7 measurement were performed and discussed on the study of tropospheric aerosol and its consequence in Thailand. Since, ASSA (w) is one of the most important parameters for a determination of aerosol effect on radioactive forcing. Here the estimation of w was directly determined in terms of the ratio of aerosol scattering optical depth to aerosol extinction optical depth (ωscat/ωext) without any utilization of aerosol computer code models. This is of benefit for providing the elimination of uncertainty causing by the modeling assumptions and the estimation of actual aerosol input data. Diurnal w of 5 cloudless-days in winter and early summer at 5 distinct wavelengths of 415, 500, 615, 673 and 870 nm with the consideration of Rayleigh scattering and atmospheric column NO2 and Ozone contents were investigated, respectively. Besides, the tendency of spectral dependence of ω representing two seasons was observed. The characteristic of spectral results reveals that during wintertime the atmosphere of the inland rural vicinity for the period of measurement possibly dominated with a lesser amount of soil dust aerosols loading than one in early summer. Hence, the major aerosol loading particularly in summer was subject to a mixture of both soil dust and biomass burning aerosols.

Keywords: aerosol scattering optical depth, aerosol extinction optical depth, biomass burning aerosol, soil dust aerosol

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Authors: Michelle Eliane Hernández-García, Angélica Lozano

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The traffic accidents study usually contemplates the relation between factors such as the type of vehicle, its operation, and the road infrastructure. Traffic accidents can be explained by different factors, which have a greater or lower relevance. Two zones are studied, a mixed industrial zone and the extended zone of it. The first zone has mainly residential (57%), and industrial (23%) land uses. Trucks are mainly on the roads where industries are located. Four sensors give information about traffic and speed on the main roads. The extended zone (which includes the first zone) has mainly residential (47%) and mixed residential (43%) land use, and just 3% of industrial use. The traffic mix is composed mainly of non-trucks. 39 traffic and speed sensors are located on main roads. The traffic mix in a mixed land use zone, could be related to traffic accidents. To understand this relation, it is required to identify the elements of the traffic mix which are linked to traffic accidents. Models that attempt to explain what factors are related to traffic accidents have faced multiple methodological problems for obtaining robust databases. Poisson regression models are used to explain the accidents. The objective of the Poisson analysis is to estimate a vector to provide an estimate of the natural logarithm of the mean number of accidents per period; this estimate is achieved by standard maximum likelihood procedures. For the estimation of the relation between traffic accidents and the traffic mix, the database is integrated of eight variables, with 17,520 observations and six vectors. In the model, the dependent variable is the occurrence or non-occurrence of accidents, and the vectors that seek to explain it, correspond to the vehicle classes: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, and C6, respectively, standing for car, microbus, and van, bus, unitary trucks (2 to 6 axles), articulated trucks (3 to 6 axles) and bi-articulated trucks (5 to 9 axles); in addition, there is a vector for the average speed of the traffic mix. A Poisson model is applied, using a logarithmic link function and a Poisson family. For the first zone, the Poisson model shows a positive relation among traffic accidents and C6, average speed, C3, C2, and C1 (in a decreasing order). The analysis of the coefficient shows a high relation with bi-articulated truck and bus (C6 and the C3), indicating an important participation of freight trucks. For the expanded zone, the Poisson model shows a positive relation among traffic accidents and speed average, biarticulated truck (C6), and microbus and vans (C2). The coefficients obtained in both Poisson models shows a higher relation among freight trucks and traffic accidents in the first industrial zone than in the expanded zone.

Keywords: freight transport, industrial zone, traffic accidents, traffic mix, trucks

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Authors: Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, In-Sung Lee, Seong-Jin Cho, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Kyu Park

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Sound absorption coefficient is considered important when designing because noise affects emotion quality of car. It is designed with lots of experiment tunings in the field because it is unreliable to predict it for multi-layer material. In this paper, we present the design of sound absorption for automotive interior material with multiple layers using estimation software of sound absorption coefficient for reverberation chamber. Additionally, we introduce the method for estimation of physical properties required to predict sound absorption coefficient of car interior materials with multiple layers too. It is calculated by inverse algorithm. It is very economical to get information about physical properties without expensive equipment. Correlation test is carried out to ensure reliability for accuracy. The data to be used for the correlation is sound absorption coefficient measured in the reverberation chamber. In this way, it is considered economical and efficient to design automotive interior materials. And design optimization for sound absorption coefficient is also easy to implement when it is designed.

Keywords: sound absorption coefficient, optimization design, inverse algorithm, automotive interior material, multiple layers nonwoven, scaled reverberation chamber, sound impedance tubes

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Authors: Gang Liu, Can Wang, Runnan Zhang, Quan Wang, Huimin Song, Shaomin Ji

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Biba model can protect information integrity but might deny various non-malicious access requests of the subjects, thereby decreasing the availability in the system. Therefore, a mechanism that allows exceptional access control is needed. Break the Glass (BTG) strategies refer an efficient means for extending the access rights of users in exceptional cases. These strategies help to prevent a system from stagnation. An approach is presented in this work for integrating Break the Glass strategies into the Biba model. This research proposes a model, BTG-Biba, which provides both an original Biba model used in normal situations and a mechanism used in emergency situations. The proposed model is context aware, can implement a fine-grained type of access control and primarily solves cross-domain access problems. Finally, the flexibility and availability improvement with the use of the proposed model is illustrated.

Keywords: Biba model, break the glass, context, cross-domain, fine-grained

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Authors: Ferhat Demir

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Even if strategic management is highly critical for all types of organizations, only a few maturity models have been proposed in business literature for the area of strategic management activities. This paper updates previous studies and presents a new conceptual model for assessing the maturity of strategic management in any organization. Strategic management maturity model (S-3M) is basically composed of 6 maturity levels with 7 dimensions. The biggest contribution of S-3M is to put innovation into agenda of strategic management. The main objective of this study is to propose a model to align innovation with business strategies. This paper suggests that innovation (breakthrough new products/services and business models) is the only way of creating sustainable growth and strategy studies cannot ignore this aspect. Maturity models should embrace innovation to respond dynamic business environment and rapidly changing customer behaviours.

Keywords: strategic management, innovation, business model, maturity model

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Authors: Muhammad Tariq, Hammad Tahir, Fawwad Mahmood Butt

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Purpose: This study attempts to examine the best forecasting methodologies in the time series. The time series forecasting models such as VAR, ARCH and the ARMA are considered for the analysis. Methodology: The Bench Marks or the parameters such as Adjusted R square, F-stats, Durban Watson, and Direction of the roots have been critically and empirically analyzed. The empirical analysis consists of time series data of Consumer Price Index and Closing Stock Price. Findings: The results show that the VAR model performed better in comparison to other models. Both the reliability and significance of VAR model is highly appreciable. In contrary to it, the ARCH model showed very poor results for forecasting. However, the results of ARMA model appeared double standards i.e. the AR roots showed that model is stationary and that of MA roots showed that the model is invertible. Therefore, the forecasting would remain doubtful if it made on the bases of ARMA model. It has been concluded that VAR model provides best forecasting results. Practical Implications: This paper provides empirical evidences for the application of time series forecasting model. This paper therefore provides the base for the application of best time series forecasting model.

Keywords: forecasting, time series, auto regression, ARCH, ARMA

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Authors: Horng-Ji Lai

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The intuitive design features and friendly interface of smartphone attract older adults. In Taiwan, many senior education institutes offer smartphone training courses for older adult learners who are interested in learning this innovative technology. It is expected that the training courses can help them to enjoy the benefits of using smartphone and increase their life satisfaction. Therefore, it is important to investigate the factors that influence older adults’ behavior of using smartphone. The purpose of the research was to develop and test a research model that investigates the factors (self-efficacy, social connection, the need to seek health information, and the need to seek financial information) affecting older adult learners’ Internet behaviour and their life satisfaction with use of smartphone. Also, this research sought to identify the relationship between the proposed variables. Survey method was used to collect research data. A Structural Equation Modeling was performed using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression for data exploration and model estimation. The participants were 394 older adult learners from smartphone training courses in active aging learning centers located in central Taiwan. The research results revealed that self-efficacy significantly affected older adult learner’ social connection, the need to seek health information, and the need to seek financial information. The construct of social connection yielded a positive influence in respondents’ life satisfaction. The implications of these results for practice and future research are also discussed.

Keywords: older adults, smartphone, internet behaviour, life satisfaction

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Authors: Dalia Atallah, Lamiaa Ahmed, Hala Zaki, Mahmoud Khattab

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Background: Isoprenaline (ISO) administration induces myocardial damage via oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction. Atorvastatin (ATV) treatment improves both oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction yet recent studies have reported a pro-oxidant effect upon ATV administration on both clinical and experimental studies. The present study was directed to investigate the effect of ATV pre-treatment and treatment on ISO-induced myocardial damage. Methods: Male rats were divided into five groups (n = 10). Rats were given ISO (5mg/kg/day, i.p.) for one week with or without ATV (10mg/kg/day, p.o.). ATV was given either as pre-treatment for one week before its co-administration with ISO for another week or as a treatment for two weeks at the end of the ISO administration. At the end of the experiment, the electrocardiographic examination was done and blood was isolated for the estimation of plasma creatine kinase MB (CK-MB) activity. Rats were then sacrificed and the whole ventricles were isolated for histological examination and the estimation of lipid peroxides as malondialdehyde (MDA) level, reduced glutathione (GSH) level, catalase activity, total nitrate-nitrite (NOx), as well as the estimation of both endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) protein expression. Results: ISO-induced myocardial damage showed a significant elevation in ST segment, an increase in CK-MB activity, as well as increased oxidative stress biomarkers. Also, ISO-treated rats showed a significant decrease in myocardial NOx level and eNOS as well as degeneration in the myocardium. ATV pre-treatment didn’t show any protection to ISO-treated rats. On the other hand, ATV treatment showed a significant decrease in both the elevated ST wave and CK-MB activity. Moreover, ATV Treatment succeeded to improve oxidative stress biomarkers, tissue NOx, and eNOS protein expression, as well as amelioration of the histological alterations. Conclusion: Pre-treatment with ATV failed to protect against ISO-induced damage. This might suggest a synergistic pro-oxidant effect upon administration of the pro-oxidant ISO along with ATV as demonstrated by the increased oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction. On the other side, ATV treatment succeeded to significantly improve oxidative stress biomarkers, endothelial dysfunction and myocardial degeneration.

Keywords: atorvastatin, endothelial dysfunction, isoprenaline, oxidative stress

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Authors: Athmane Bakhta, Sebastien Leclaire, David Vidal, Francois Bertrand, Mohamed Cheriet

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This work presents a new three-dimensional variational model proposed for the simulation of ink seepage into paper sheets at the fiber level. The model, inspired by the Hising model, takes into account a finite volume of ink and describes the system state through gravity, cohesion, and adhesion force interactions. At the mesoscopic scale, the paper substrate is modeled using a discretized fiber structure generated using a numerical deposition procedure. A modified Monte Carlo method is introduced for the simulation of the ink dynamics. Besides, a multiphase lattice Boltzmann method is suggested to fine-tune the mesoscopic variational model parameters, and it is shown that the ink seepage behaviors predicted by the proposed model can resemble those predicted by a method relying on first principles.

Keywords: fibrous media, lattice Boltzmann, modelling and simulation, Monte Carlo, variational model

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Authors: Fatemeh Torfi

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Estimation of stochastic demand in physical distribution in general and efficient transport routs management in particular is emerging as a crucial factor in urban planning domain. It is particularly important in some municipalities such as Tehran where a sound demand management calls for a realistic analysis of the routing system. The methodology involved critically investigating a fuzzy least-squares linear regression approach (FLLRs) to estimate the stochastic demands in the vehicle routing problem (VRP) bearing in mind the customer's preferences order. A FLLR method is proposed in solving the VRP with stochastic demands. Approximate-distance fuzzy least-squares (ADFL) estimator ADFL estimator is applied to original data taken from a case study. The SSR values of the ADFL estimator and real demand are obtained and then compared to SSR values of the nominal demand and real demand. Empirical results showed that the proposed methods can be viable in solving problems under circumstances of having vague and imprecise performance ratings. The results further proved that application of the ADFL was realistic and efficient estimator to face the stochastic demand challenges in vehicle routing system management and solve relevant problems.

Keywords: fuzzy least-squares, stochastic, location, routing problems

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Authors: Batuhan Kocaoglu

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Although using powerful systems like ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning), companies still cannot benchmark their processes and measure their process performance easily based on predefined SCOR (Supply Chain Operation References) terms. The purpose of this research is to identify common and corresponding processes to present a conceptual model to model and measure the purchasing process of an organization. The main steps for the research study are: Literature review related to 'procure to pay' process in ERP system; Literature review related to 'sourcing' process in SCOR model; To develop a conceptual model integrating 'sourcing' of SCOR model and 'procure to pay' of ERP model. In this study, we examined the similarities and differences between these two models. The proposed framework is based on the assumptions that are drawn from (1) the body of literature, (2) the authors’ experience by working in the field of enterprise and logistics information systems. The modeling framework provides a structured and systematic way to model and decompose necessary information from conceptual representation to process element specification. This conceptual model will help the organizations to make quality purchasing system measurement instruments and tools. And offered adaptation issues for ERP systems and SCOR model will provide a more benchmarkable and worldwide standard business process.

Keywords: SCOR, ERP, procure to pay, sourcing, reference model

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Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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This study applied traffic speed and occupancy to develop clustering models that identify different traffic conditions. Particularly, these models are based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture of Generalized Linear regression (DML) and change-point regression (CR). The model frameworks were implemented using 2015 historical traffic data aggregated at a 15-minute interval from an Interstate 295 freeway in Jacksonville, Florida. Using the deviance information criterion (DIC) to identify the appropriate number of mixture components, three traffic states were identified as free-flow, transitional, and congested condition. Results of the DML revealed that traffic occupancy is statistically significant in influencing the reduction of traffic speed in each of the identified states. Influence on the free-flow and the congested state was estimated to be higher than the transitional flow condition in both evening and morning peak periods. Estimation of the critical speed threshold using CR revealed that 47 mph and 48 mph are speed thresholds for congested and transitional traffic condition during the morning peak hours and evening peak hours, respectively. Free-flow speed thresholds for morning and evening peak hours were estimated at 64 mph and 66 mph, respectively. The proposed approaches will facilitate accurate detection and prediction of traffic congestion for developing effective countermeasures.

Keywords: traffic congestion, multistate speed distribution, traffic occupancy, Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized linear model, Bayesian change-point detection

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Authors: M. Kumpugdee-Vollrath, T. G. D. Phu, M. Helmis

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A suitable model membrane to study the pharmacological effect of pharmaceutical products is human stratum corneum because this layer of human skin is the outermost layer and it is an important barrier to be passed through. Other model membranes which were also used are for example skins from pig, mouse, reptile or fish. We are interested in fish skins in this project. The advantages of the fish skins are, that they can be obtained from the supermarket or fish shop. However, the fish skins should be freshly prepared and used directly without storage. In order to understand the effect of different model drugs e.g. lidocaine HCl, resveratrol, paracetamol, ibuprofen, acetyl salicylic acid on the properties of the model membrane from various types of fishes e.g. trout, salmon, cod, plaice permeation tests were performed and differential scanning calorimetry was applied.

Keywords: fish skin, model membrane, permeation, DSC, lidocaine HCl, resveratrol, paracetamol, ibuprofen, acetyl salicylic acid

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Authors: Rahele Mosleh

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This paper gives a survey of results on global stability of extended Ross model for malaria by constructing some elegant Lyapunov functions for two cases of epidemic, including disease-free and endemic occasions. The model is a nonlinear seven-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations that simulates this phenomenon in a more realistic fashion. We discuss the existence of positive disease-free and endemic equilibrium points of the model. It is stated that extended Ross model possesses invariant solutions for human and mosquito in a specific domain of the system.

Keywords: global stability, invariant solutions, Lyapunov function, stationary points

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Authors: Sina Saadati, Mohammadreza Razzazi

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Since Java is an object-oriented language, It can be used to solve a wide range of problems. One of the considerable usages of this language can be found in Agent-based modeling and simulation. Despite the significant power of Java, There is not an easy method to render a 3-dimensional human model. In this article, we are about to develop a library which helps modelers present a 3D human model and control it with Java. The library runs two server programs. The first one is a web page server that can connect to any browser and present an HTML code. The second server connects to the browser and controls the movement of the model. So, the modeler will be able to develop a simulation and display a good-looking human model without any knowledge of any graphical tools.

Keywords: agent-based modeling and simulation, human model, graphics, Java, distributed systems

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Authors: G. E. Okungbowa, H. O. Adams, S. E. Eze

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This study is on the estimation of adult patient doses for Chest X-ray diagnostic examinations of new admitted undergraduate students attending a tertiary institution health centre as part of their routine clearance and check up on admitted into the institution. A total of 531 newly admitted undergraduate students were recruited for this survey in the first quarter of 2016 (January to March, 2016). CALDOSE_X 5.0 software was used to compute the Entrance Surface Dose (ESD) and Effective Dose (ED); while the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21.0 was used to carry out the statistical analyses. The basic patients' data and exposure parameters required for the software are age, sex, examination type, projection posture, tube potential and current-time product. The mean Entrance Surface Dose and Effective Doses of the undergraduate students were calculated using the software, and the values were compared with existing literature and internationally established diagnostic reference levels. The mean ESD calculated is 0.29 mGy, and the mean effective dose is 0.04 mSv. The values of ESD and ED obtained are below the internationally established diagnostic reference levels, which could be attributed to good radiographic techniques employed during the chest X-ray procedure for these students.

Keywords: x-ray, dose, examination, chest

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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The proper policy handling might not able to attain the target since some of recessions, e.g., pandemic-led crises, the variables shocks of the economics. At the level of this situation, the Central bank implements the monetary policy to choose increase the exogenous expenditure and level of money supply consecutively for booster level economic growth, whether the monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in altering real output growth of a country or both stand for relatively effective in the direction of output growth of a country. The dispute with reference to the relationship between the monetary policy and fiscal policy is centered on the inflationary penalty of the shortfall financing by the fiscal authority. The latest variables socks of economics as well as the pandemic-led crises, central banks around the world predicted just about a general dilemma in relation to increase rates to face the or decrease rates to sustain the economic movement. Whether the prices hang about fundamentally unaffected, the aggregate demand has also been hold a significantly negative attitude by the outbreak COVID-19 pandemic. To empirically investigate the effects of economics shocks associated COVID-19 pandemic, the paper considers the effectiveness of the monetary policy and fiscal policy that linked to the adjustment mechanism of different economic variables. To examine the effects of economics shock associated COVID-19 pandemic towards the effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy in the direction of output growth of a Country, this paper uses the Simultaneous equations model under the estimation of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method.

Keywords: IS-LM framework, pandemic. Economics variables shocks, simultaneous equations model, output growth

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Authors: M. Manohari, Himanshu Gupta, S. Priyadharshini, R.Santhanam, S.Chandrasekaran, B|.Venkatraman

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Injection is one of the potential routes of intake in a radioactive facility. The internal dose due to this intake is monitored at the radiation emergency medical centre, IGCAR using a portable planar HPGe detector. The contaminated wound may be having different shapes. In a reprocessing potential of wound contamination with actinide is more. Efficiency is one of the input parameters for estimation of internal dose. Estimating these efficiencies experimentally would be tedious and cumbersome. Numerical estimation can be a supplement to experiment. As an initial step in this study 241Am contamination of different shapes are studied. In this study portable planar HPGe detector was modeled using Monte Carlo code FLUKA and the effect of different parameters like distance of the contamination from the detector, radius of the circular contamination were studied. Efficiency values for point and surface contamination located at different distances were estimated. The effect of efficiency on the radius of the surface source was more predominant when the source is at 1 cm distance compared to when the source to detector distance is 10 cm. At 1 cm the efficiency decreased quadratically as the radius increased and at 10 cm it decreased linearly. The point source efficiency varied exponentially with source to detector distance.

Keywords: Planar HPGe, efficiency value, injection, surface source

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Authors: Alam Ali, Ashok Kumar Pathak

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Path analysis is a statistical technique used to evaluate the strength of the direct and indirect effects of variables. One or more structural regression equations are used to estimate a series of parameters in order to find the better fit of data. Sometimes, exogenous variables do not show a significant strength of their direct and indirect effect when the assumption of classical regression (ordinary least squares (OLS)) are violated by the nature of the data. The main motive of this article is to investigate the efficacy of the copula-based regression approach over the classical regression approach and calculate the direct and indirect effects of variables when data violates the OLS assumption and variables are linked through an elliptical copula. We perform this study using a well-organized numerical scheme. Finally, a real data application is also presented to demonstrate the performance of the superiority of the copula approach.

Keywords: path analysis, copula-based regression models, direct and indirect effects, k-fold cross validation technique

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Authors: L. Bikulciene, E. Venskaityte, G. Jarusevicius

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Non-stationary and nonlinear signals generated by living complex systems defy traditional mechanistic approaches, which are based on homeostasis. Previous our studies have shown that the evaluation of the interactions of physiological signals by using special analysis methods is suitable for observation of physiological processes. It is demonstrated the possibility of using deep physiological model, based interpretation of the changes of the human body’s functional states combined with an application of the analytical method based on matrix theory for the physiological signals analysis, which was applied on high risk cardiac patients. It is shown that evaluation of cardiac signals interactions show peculiar for each individual functional changes at the onset of hemodynamic restoration procedure. Therefore we suggest that the alterations of functional state of the body, after patients overcome surgery can be complemented by the data received from the suggested approach of the evaluation of functional variables interactions.

Keywords: cardiac diseases, complex systems theory, ECG analysis, matrix analysis

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Authors: Kaige Shi, Chao Jiang, Xin Li

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The swirl gripper is an electrically activated noncontact handling device that uses swirling airflow to generate a lifting force. This force can be used to pick up a workpiece placed underneath the swirl gripper without any contact. It is applicable, for example, in the semiconductor wafer production line, where contact must be avoided during the handling and moving of a workpiece to minimize damage. When a workpiece levitates underneath a swirl gripper, the gap height between them is crucial for safe handling. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a method to estimate the levitation gap height by detecting pressure at two points. The method is based on theoretical model of the swirl gripper, and has been experimentally verified. Furthermore, the force between the gripper and the workpiece can also be estimated using the detected pressure. As a result, the nonlinear relationship between the force and gap height can be linearized by adjusting the rotating speed of the fan in the swirl gripper according to the estimated force and gap height. The linearized relationship is expected to enhance handling stability of the workpiece.

Keywords: swirl gripper, noncontact handling, levitation, gap height estimation

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Authors: Esther M. Folarin, Evans Osabuohien, Ademola Onabote

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Agriculture constitutes an important part of development and poverty mitigation in lower-middle-income countries, like Nigeria. The level of agricultural productivity in the Nigerian economy in line with the level of demand necessary to meet the desired expectation of the Nigerian populace is threatening to meeting the standard of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); This includes the SDG-2 (achieve food security through agricultural productivity). The overall objective of the study is to reveal the performance of the interaction variable in the model among other factors that help in the achievement of greater Nigerian agricultural productivity. The study makes use of Wave 4 (2018/2019) of the Living Standard Measurement Studies, Integrated Survey on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). Qualitative analysis of the information was also used to provide complimentary answers to the quantitative analysis done in the study. The study employed human capital theory and Grossman’s theory of health Demand in explaining the relationships that exist between the variables within the model of the study. The study engages the Instrumental Variable Regression technique in achieving the broad objectives among other techniques for the other specific objectives. The estimation results show that there exists a positive relationship between female healthcare and the level of female agricultural productivity in Nigeria. In conclusion, the study emphasises the need for more provision and empowerment for greater female access to healthcare and educational attainment levels that aids higher female agricultural productivity and consequently an improvement in the total agricultural productivity of the Nigerian economy.

Keywords: agricultural productivity, education, female, healthcare, investment

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Mohammed Seyam, Faridah Othman, Ahmed El-Shafie

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The early warning of high stream flow events (HSF) and floods is an important aspect in the management of surface water and rivers systems. This process can be performed using either process-based models or data driven-based models such as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The main goal of this study is to develop efficient AI-based model for predicting the real-time hourly stream flow (Q) and apply it as early warning tool of HSF and floods in the downstream area of the Selangor River basin, taken here as a paradigm of humid tropical rivers in Southeast Asia. The performance of AI-based models has been improved through the integration of the lag time (Lt) estimation in the modelling process. A total of 8753 patterns of Q, water level, and rainfall hourly records representing one-year period (2011) were utilized in the modelling process. Six hydrological scenarios have been arranged through hypothetical cases of input variables to investigate how the changes in RF intensity in upstream stations can lead formation of floods. The initial SF was changed for each scenario in order to include wide range of hydrological situations in this study. The performance evaluation of the developed AI-based model shows that high correlation coefficient (R) between the observed and predicted Q is achieved. The AI-based model has been successfully employed in early warning throughout the advance detection of the hydrological conditions that could lead to formations of floods and HSF, where represented by three levels of severity (i.e., alert, warning, and danger). Based on the results of the scenarios, reaching the danger level in the downstream area required high RF intensity in at least two upstream areas. According to results of applications, it can be concluded that AI-based models are beneficial tools to the local authorities for flood control and awareness.

Keywords: floods, stream flow, hydrological modelling, hydrology, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Robin Singh, Mayank Nautiyal, Priyank Jain, Vatasta Koul, Vaibhav Sharma

Abstract:

The curiosity to investigate the space and its mysteries was dependably the main impetus of human interest, as the particle of livings exists from the "debut de l'Univers" (beginning of the Universe) typified with its few other living things. The sharp drive to uncover the secrets of stars and their unusual deportment was dependably an ignitor of stars investigation. As humankind lives in civilizations and states, stars likewise live in provinces named ‘clusters’. Clusters are separates into 2 composes i.e. open clusters and globular clusters. An open cluster is a gathering of thousand stars that were moulded from a comparable goliath sub-nuclear cloud and for the most part; contain Propulsion I (extremely metal-rich) and Propulsion II (mild metal-rich), where globular clusters are around gathering of more than thirty thousand stars that circles a galactic focus and basically contain Propulsion III (to a great degree metal-poor) stars. Futurology of this paper lies in the spectroscopic investigation of globular clusters like M92 and NGC419 and open clusters like M34 and IC2391 in different color bands by using software like VIREO virtual observatory, Aladin, CMUNIWIN, and MS-Excel. Assessing the outcome Hertzsprung-Russel (HR) diagram with exemplary cosmological models like Einstein model, De Sitter and Planck survey demonstrate for a superior age estimation of respective clusters. Colour-Magnitude Diagram of these clusters was obtained by photometric analysis in g and r bands which further transformed into BV bands which will unravel the idea of stars exhibit in the individual clusters.

Keywords: color magnitude diagram, globular clusters, open clusters, Einstein model

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Authors: J. B. Minari, O. B. Oloyede, A. A. Odutuga

Abstract:

Myeloperoxidase is the most abundant enzyme found in the polymorphonuclear neutrophil and is known to play a central role in the host defense system of the leukocyte. The enzyme has been reported to interact with some drugs to generate free radical which inhibits its activity. This study investigated the effects of artesunate on the activity of the enzyme and the subsequent effect on the host immune system. In investigating the effects of the drugs on myeloperoxidase, the influence of concentration, pH, partition ratio estimation and kinetics of inhibition were studied. This study showed that artesunate is concentration-dependent inhibitor of myeloperoxidase with an IC50 of 0.078mM. Partition ratio estimation showed that 60 enzymatic turnover cycles are required for complete inhibition of myeloperoxidase in the presence of artesunate. The influence of pH on the effect of artesunate on the enzyme showed least activity of myeloperoxidase at physiological pH. The kinetic inhibition studies showed that artesunate caused a competitive inhibition with an increase in the Km value from 0.12mM to 0.26mM and no effect on the Vmax value. The Ki value was estimated to be 2.5mM. The results obtained from this study show that artesunate is a potent inhibitor of myeloperoxidase and it is capable of inactivating the enzyme. It is considered that the inhibition of myeloperoxidase in the presence of artesunate as revealed in this study may partly explain the impairment of polymorphonuclear neutrophil and consequent reduction of the strength of the host defense system against secondary infections.

Keywords: myeloperoxidase, artesunate, inhibition, nuetrophill

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Bin Wang, Yong Xu, Honggang Qu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao

Abstract:

Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposit, and is one of the key technology of digital mine. The three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines the geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in three-dimensional environment with computer technology, and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provided scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

Procedia PDF Downloads 53