Search results for: Bayes’ rule
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 910

Search results for: Bayes’ rule

10 Understanding Different Facets of Chromosome Abnormalities: A 17-year Cytogenetic Study and Indian Perspectives

Authors: Lakshmi Rao Kandukuri, Mamata Deenadayal, Suma Prasad, Bipin Sethi, Srinadh Buragadda, Lalji Singh

Abstract:

Worldwide; at least 7.6 million children are born annually with severe genetic or congenital malformations and among them 90% of these are born in mid and low-income countries. Precise prevalence data are difficult to collect, especially in developing countries, owing to the great diversity of conditions and also because many cases remain undiagnosed. The genetic and congenital disorder is the second most common cause of infant and childhood mortality and occurs with a prevalence of 25-60 per 1000 births. The higher prevalence of genetic diseases in a particular community may, however, be due to some social or cultural factors. Such factors include the tradition of consanguineous marriage, which results in a higher rate of autosomal recessive conditions including congenital malformations, stillbirths, or mental retardation. Genetic diseases can vary in severity, from being fatal before birth to requiring continuous management; their onset covers all life stages from infancy to old age. Those presenting at birth are particularly burdensome and may cause early death or life-long chronic morbidity. Genetic testing for several genetic diseases identifies changes in chromosomes, genes, or proteins. The results of a genetic test can confirm or rule out a suspected genetic condition or help determine a person's chance of developing or passing on a genetic disorder. Several hundred genetic tests are currently in use and more are being developed. Chromosomal abnormalities are the major cause of human suffering, which are implicated in mental retardation, congenital malformations, dysmorphic features, primary and secondary amenorrhea, reproductive wastage, infertility neoplastic diseases. Cytogenetic evaluation of patients is helpful in the counselling and management of affected individuals and families. We present here especially chromosomal abnormalities which form a major part of genetic disease burden in India. Different programmes on chromosome research and human reproductive genetics primarily relate to infertility since this is a major public health problem in our country, affecting 10-15 percent of couples. Prenatal diagnosis of chromosomal abnormalities in high-risk pregnancies helps in detecting chromosomally abnormal foetuses. Such couples are counselled regarding the continuation of pregnancy. In addition to the basic research, the team is providing chromosome diagnostic services that include conventional and advanced techniques for identifying various genetic defects. Other than routine chromosome diagnosis for infertility, also include patients with short stature, hypogonadism, undescended testis, microcephaly, delayed developmental milestones, familial, and isolated mental retardation, and cerebral palsy. Thus, chromosome diagnostics has found its applicability not only in disease prevention and management but also in guiding the clinicians in certain aspects of treatment. It would be appropriate to affirm that chromosomes are the images of life and they unequivocally mirror the states of human health. The importance of genetic counseling is increasing with the advancement in the field of genetics. The genetic counseling can help families to cope with emotional, psychological, and medical consequences of genetic diseases.

Keywords: India, chromosome abnormalities, genetic disorders, cytogenetic study

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9 High Cycle Fatigue Analysis of a Lower Hopper Knuckle Connection of a Large Bulk Carrier under Dynamic Loading

Authors: Vaso K. Kapnopoulou, Piero Caridis

Abstract:

The fatigue of ship structural details is of major concern in the maritime industry as it can generate fracture issues that may compromise structural integrity. In the present study, a fatigue analysis of the lower hopper knuckle connection of a bulk carrier was conducted using the Finite Element Method by means of ABAQUS/CAE software. The fatigue life was calculated using Miner’s Rule and the long-term distribution of stress range by the use of the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The cumulative damage ratio was estimated using the fatigue damage resulting from the stress range occurring at each load condition. For this purpose, a cargo hold model was first generated, which extends over the length of two holds (the mid-hold and half of each of the adjacent holds) and transversely over the full breadth of the hull girder. Following that, a submodel of the area of interest was extracted in order to calculate the hot spot stress of the connection and to estimate the fatigue life of the structural detail. Two hot spot locations were identified; one at the top layer of the inner bottom plate and one at the top layer of the hopper plate. The IACS Common Structural Rules (CSR) require that specific dynamic load cases for each loading condition are assessed. Following this, the dynamic load case that causes the highest stress range at each loading condition should be used in the fatigue analysis for the calculation of the cumulative fatigue damage ratio. Each load case has a different effect on ship hull response. Of main concern, when assessing the fatigue strength of the lower hopper knuckle connection, was the determination of the maximum, i.e. the critical value of the stress range, which acts in a direction normal to the weld toe line. This acts in the transverse direction, that is, perpendicularly to the ship's centerline axis. The load cases were explored both theoretically and numerically in order to establish the one that causes the highest damage to the location examined. The most severe one was identified to be the load case induced by beam sea condition where the encountered wave comes from the starboard. At the level of the cargo hold model, the model was assumed to be simply supported at its ends. A coarse mesh was generated in order to represent the overall stiffness of the structure. The elements employed were quadrilateral shell elements, each having four integration points. A linear elastic analysis was performed because linear elastic material behavior can be presumed, since only localized yielding is allowed by most design codes. At the submodel level, the displacements of the analysis of the cargo hold model to the outer region nodes of the submodel acted as boundary conditions and applied loading for the submodel. In order to calculate the hot spot stress at the hot spot locations, a very fine mesh zone was generated and used. The fatigue life of the detail was found to be 16.4 years which is lower than the design fatigue life of the structure (25 years), making this location vulnerable to fatigue fracture issues. Moreover, the loading conditions that induce the most damage to the location were found to be the various ballasting conditions.

Keywords: dynamic load cases, finite element method, high cycle fatigue, lower hopper knuckle

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8 Learning from Dendrites: Improving the Point Neuron Model

Authors: Alexander Vandesompele, Joni Dambre

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The diversity in dendritic arborization, as first illustrated by Santiago Ramon y Cajal, has always suggested a role for dendrites in the functionality of neurons. In the past decades, thanks to new recording techniques and optical stimulation methods, it has become clear that dendrites are not merely passive electrical components. They are observed to integrate inputs in a non-linear fashion and actively participate in computations. Regardless, in simulations of neural networks dendritic structure and functionality are often overlooked. Especially in a machine learning context, when designing artificial neural networks, point neuron models such as the leaky-integrate-and-fire (LIF) model are dominant. These models mimic the integration of inputs at the neuron soma, and ignore the existence of dendrites. In this work, the LIF point neuron model is extended with a simple form of dendritic computation. This gives the LIF neuron increased capacity to discriminate spatiotemporal input sequences, a dendritic functionality as observed in another study. Simulations of the spiking neurons are performed using the Bindsnet framework. In the common LIF model, incoming synapses are independent. Here, we introduce a dependency between incoming synapses such that the post-synaptic impact of a spike is not only determined by the weight of the synapse, but also by the activity of other synapses. This is a form of short term plasticity where synapses are potentiated or depressed by the preceding activity of neighbouring synapses. This is a straightforward way to prevent inputs from simply summing linearly at the soma. To implement this, each pair of synapses on a neuron is assigned a variable,representing the synaptic relation. This variable determines the magnitude ofthe short term plasticity. These variables can be chosen randomly or, more interestingly, can be learned using a form of Hebbian learning. We use Spike-Time-Dependent-Plasticity (STDP), commonly used to learn synaptic strength magnitudes. If all neurons in a layer receive the same input, they tend to learn the same through STDP. Adding inhibitory connections between the neurons creates a winner-take-all (WTA) network. This causes the different neurons to learn different input sequences. To illustrate the impact of the proposed dendritic mechanism, even without learning, we attach five input neurons to two output neurons. One output neuron isa regular LIF neuron, the other output neuron is a LIF neuron with dendritic relationships. Then, the five input neurons are allowed to fire in a particular order. The membrane potentials are reset and subsequently the five input neurons are fired in the reversed order. As the regular LIF neuron linearly integrates its inputs at the soma, the membrane potential response to both sequences is similar in magnitude. In the other output neuron, due to the dendritic mechanism, the membrane potential response is different for both sequences. Hence, the dendritic mechanism improves the neuron’s capacity for discriminating spa-tiotemporal sequences. Dendritic computations improve LIF neurons even if the relationships between synapses are established randomly. Ideally however, a learning rule is used to improve the dendritic relationships based on input data. It is possible to learn synaptic strength with STDP, to make a neuron more sensitive to its input. Similarly, it is possible to learn dendritic relationships with STDP, to make the neuron more sensitive to spatiotemporal input sequences. Feeding structured data to a WTA network with dendritic computation leads to a significantly higher number of discriminated input patterns. Without the dendritic computation, output neurons are less specific and may, for instance, be activated by a sequence in reverse order.

Keywords: dendritic computation, spiking neural networks, point neuron model

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7 Structured Cross System Planning and Control in Modular Production Systems by Using Agent-Based Control Loops

Authors: Simon Komesker, Achim Wagner, Martin Ruskowski

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In times of volatile markets with fluctuating demand and the uncertainty of global supply chains, flexible production systems are the key to an efficient implementation of a desired production program. In this publication, the authors present a holistic information concept taking into account various influencing factors for operating towards the global optimum. Therefore, a strategy for the implementation of multi-level planning for a flexible, reconfigurable production system with an alternative production concept in the automotive industry is developed. The main contribution of this work is a system structure mixing central and decentral planning and control evaluated in a simulation framework. The information system structure in current production systems in the automotive industry is rigidly hierarchically organized in monolithic systems. The production program is created rule-based with the premise of achieving uniform cycle time. This program then provides the information basis for execution in subsystems at the station and process execution level. In today's era of mixed-(car-)model factories, complex conditions and conflicts arise in achieving logistics, quality, and production goals. There is no provision for feedback loops of results from the process execution level (resources) and process supporting (quality and logistics) systems and reconsideration in the planning systems. To enable a robust production flow, the complexity of production system control is artificially reduced by the line structure and results, for example in material-intensive processes (buffers and safety stocks - two container principle also for different variants). The limited degrees of freedom of line production have produced the principle of progress figure control, which results in one-time sequencing, sequential order release, and relatively inflexible capacity control. As a result, modularly structured production systems such as modular production according to known approaches with more degrees of freedom are currently difficult to represent in terms of information technology. The remedy is an information concept that supports cross-system and cross-level information processing for centralized and decentralized decision-making. Through an architecture of hierarchically organized but decoupled subsystems, the paradigm of hybrid control is used, and a holonic manufacturing system is offered, which enables flexible information provisioning and processing support. In this way, the influences from quality, logistics, and production processes can be linked holistically with the advantages of mixed centralized and decentralized planning and control. Modular production systems also require modularly networked information systems with semi-autonomous optimization for a robust production flow. Dynamic prioritization of different key figures between subsystems should lead the production system to an overall optimum. The tasks and goals of quality, logistics, process, resource, and product areas in a cyber-physical production system are designed as an interconnected multi-agent-system. The result is an alternative system structure that executes centralized process planning and decentralized processing. An agent-based manufacturing control is used to enable different flexibility and reconfigurability states and manufacturing strategies in order to find optimal partial solutions of subsystems, that lead to a near global optimum for hybrid planning. This allows a robust near to plan execution with integrated quality control and intralogistics.

Keywords: holonic manufacturing system, modular production system, planning, and control, system structure

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6 Multiaxial Stress Based High Cycle Fatigue Model for Adhesive Joint Interfaces

Authors: Martin Alexander Eder, Sergei Semenov

Abstract:

Many glass-epoxy composite structures, such as large utility wind turbine rotor blades (WTBs), comprise of adhesive joints with typically thick bond lines used to connect the different components during assembly. Performance optimization of rotor blades to increase power output by simultaneously maintaining high stiffness-to-low-mass ratios entails intricate geometries in conjunction with complex anisotropic material behavior. Consequently, adhesive joints in WTBs are subject to multiaxial stress states with significant stress gradients depending on the local joint geometry. Moreover, the dynamic aero-elastic interaction of the WTB with the airflow generates non-proportional, variable amplitude stress histories in the material. Empiricism shows that a prominent failure type in WTBs is high cycle fatigue failure of adhesive bond line interfaces, which in fact over time developed into a design driver as WTB sizes increase rapidly. Structural optimization employed at an early design stage, therefore, sets high demands on computationally efficient interface fatigue models capable of predicting the critical locations prone for interface failure. The numerical stress-based interface fatigue model presented in this work uses the Drucker-Prager criterion to compute three different damage indices corresponding to the two interface shear tractions and the outward normal traction. The two-parameter Drucker-Prager model was chosen because of its ability to consider shear strength enhancement under compression and shear strength reduction under tension. The governing interface damage index is taken as the maximum of the triple. The damage indices are computed through the well-known linear Palmgren-Miner rule after separate rain flow-counting of the equivalent shear stress history and the equivalent pure normal stress history. The equivalent stress signals are obtained by self-similar scaling of the Drucker-Prager surface whose shape is defined by the uniaxial tensile strength and the shear strength such that it intersects with the stress point at every time step. This approach implicitly assumes that the damage caused by the prevailing multiaxial stress state is the same as the damage caused by an amplified equivalent uniaxial stress state in the three interface directions. The model was implemented as Python plug-in for the commercially available finite element code Abaqus for its use with solid elements. The model was used to predict the interface damage of an adhesively bonded, tapered glass-epoxy composite cantilever I-beam tested by LM Wind Power under constant amplitude compression-compression tip load in the high cycle fatigue regime. Results show that the model was able to predict the location of debonding in the adhesive interface between the webfoot and the cap. Moreover, with a set of two different constant life diagrams namely in shear and tension, it was possible to predict both the fatigue lifetime and the failure mode of the sub-component with reasonable accuracy. It can be concluded that the fidelity, robustness and computational efficiency of the proposed model make it especially suitable for rapid fatigue damage screening of large 3D finite element models subject to complex dynamic load histories.

Keywords: adhesive, fatigue, interface, multiaxial stress

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5 Kanga Traditional Costume as a Tool for Community Empowerment in Tanzania in Ubuntu perspective - A Literature Review

Authors: Meinrad Haule Lembuka

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Introduction: Ubuntu culture represents African humanism with collective and positive feeling of people living together, interdependence, equally and peaceful etc. Overtime, Ubuntu culture developed varieties of communicative strategies to express experiences, feelings and knowledge. Khanga or kanga (garment) is among the Ubuntu cultural practice of Bantu speaking people along the East African coast following interaction with Arabs and Bantu speaking people to formulate Swahili culture. Kanga or Kanga is a Swahili word which means a traditional soft cotton cloths in varieties of colours, patterns, and styles which as a deep cultural, historical, and social significance not only in Tanzania but the rest of East African coast. Swahili culture is a sub culture of Ubuntu African culture which is rich in customs and rituals that serve to preserve goodness and life where Tanzania, like the rest of East African societies along the Indian coast engaged in kanga dressing custom under Swahili culture to express their feelings and knowledge sharing. After the independence of Tanzania (formerly Tanganyika) from British colonial rule, Kanga traditional dressing gained momentum in Swahili culture and spread to the rest of East Africa and beyond. To date kanga dressing holds a good position as a formal and informal tool for advocating marginalised groups, counselling, psychosocial therapy, liberation, compassion, love, justice, campaign, and cerebration etc. Methodology: A literature review method was guided by Ubuntu theory to assess the implications of kanga traditional dressing in empowering Tanzanian community. Findings: During slavery, slaves wore Kaniki and people despised Kaniki dressing due to its association with slavery. Ex-slave women seeking to become part of the Swahili society began to decorate their Kaniki clothes. After slavery was abolished in 1897, Kangas began to be used for self-empowerment and to indicate that the wearer had personal wealth. During colonial era, freedom of expressions for Africans were restricted by colonial masters thus Tanzanians used kanga to express the evils of colonialism and other social problems, Under Ubuntu value of unity and solidarity liberation and independence fighters crafted motto and liberation messages that were shared and spread rapidly in the community. Political parities like TANU used kanga to spread nationalism and Ujamaa policy. kanga is more than a piece of fabric-it is a space for women to voice unspeakable communication and a women-centred repository for indigenous knowledge, feminisms addressing social ills, happiness, campaigns, memories and reconciliation etc. Kanga provides an indirect voice and support vulnerable and marginalised populations and strongly it has proved to be a peaceful platform of capture attention of government and societies. Kanga textiles gained increased international fame when an Obama kanga design was produced upon the president’s election in 2008 and his visit to Tanzania in 2013. Conclusion: Kanga preserves and symbolises Swahili culture and contributes in realization of social justice, inclusion, national identity and unity. As an inclusive cultural tool, Kanga spread across Africa to international community and the practice has moved from being a woman domination dressing code to other sex orientations.

Keywords: African culture, Kanga, khanga, swahili culture, ubuntu

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4 The Role of a Specialized Diet for Management of Fibromyalgia Symptoms: A Systematic Review

Authors: Siddhant Yadav, Rylea Ranum, Hannah Alberts, Abdul Kalaiger, Brent Bauer, Ryan Hurt, Ann Vincent, Loren Toussaint, Sanjeev Nanda

Abstract:

Background and significance: Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic pain disorder also characterized by chronic fatigue, morning stiffness, sleep, and cognitive symptoms, psychological disturbances (anxiety, depression), and is comorbid with multiple medical and psychiatric conditions. It has an incidence of 2-4% in the general population and is reported more commonly in women. Oxidative stress and inflammation are thought to contribute to pain in patients with FM, and the adoption of an antioxidant/anti-inflammatory diet has been suggested as a modality to alleviate symptoms. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the efficacy of specialized diets (ketogenic, gluten free, Mediterranean, and low carbohydrate) in improving FM symptoms. Methodology: A comprehensive search of the following databases from inception to July 15th, 2021, was conducted: Ovid MEDLINE and Epub ahead of print, in-process and other non-indexed citations and daily, Ovid Embase, Ovid EBM reviews, Cochrane central register of controlled trials, EBSCO host CINAHL with full text, Elsevier Scopus, website and citation index, web of science emerging sources citation and clinicaltrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials, non-randomized experimental studies, cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, case series, and case reports in adults with fibromyalgia. The risk of bias was assessed with the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality designed, specific recommended criteria (AHRQ). Results: Thirteen studies were eligible for inclusion. This included a total of 761 participants. Twelve out of the 13 studies reported improvement in widespread body pain, joint stiffness, sleeping pattern, mood, and gastrointestinal symptoms, and one study reported no changes in symptomatology in patients with FM on specialized diets. None of the studies showed the worsening of symptoms associated with a specific diet. Most of the patient population was female, with the mean age at which fibromyalgia was diagnosed being 48.12 years. Improvement in symptoms was reported by the patient's adhering to a gluten-free diet, raw vegan diet, tryptophan- and magnesium-enriched Mediterranean diet, aspartame- and msg- elimination diet, and specifically a Khorasan wheat diet. Risk of bias assessment noted that 6 studies had a low risk of bias (5 clinical trials and 1 case series), four studies had a moderate risk of bias, and 3 had a high risk of bias. In many of the studies, the allocation of treatment (diets) was not adequately concealed, and the researchers did not rule out any potential impact from a concurrent intervention or an unintended exposure that might have biased the results. On the other hand, there was a low risk of attrition bias in all the trials; all were conducted with an intention-to-treat, and the inclusion/exclusion criteria, exposures/interventions, and primary outcomes were valid, reliable, and implemented consistently across all study participants. Concluding statement: Patients with fibromyalgia who followed specialized diets experienced a variable degree of improvement in their widespread body pain. Improvement was also seen in stiffness, fatigue, moods, sleeping patterns, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Additionally, the majority of the patients also reported improvement in overall quality of life.

Keywords: fibromyalgia, specialized diet, vegan, gluten free, Mediterranean, systematic review

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3 Triple Immunotherapy to Overcome Immune Evasion by Tumors in a Melanoma Mouse Model

Authors: Mary-Ann N. Jallad, Dalal F. Jaber, Alexander M. Abdelnoor

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Introduction: Current evidence confirms that both innate and adaptive immune systems are capable of recognizing and abolishing malignant cells. The emergence of cancerous tumors in patients is, therefore, an indication that certain cancer cells can resist elimination by the immune system through a process known as “immune evasion”. In fact, cancer cells often exploit regulatory mechanisms to escape immunity. Such mechanisms normally exist to control the immune responses and prohibit exaggerated or autoimmune reactions. Recently, immunotherapies have shown promising yet limited results. Therefore this study investigates several immunotherapeutic combinations and devises a triple immunotherapy which harnesses the innate and acquired immune responses towards the annihilation of malignant cells through overcoming their ability of immune evasion, consequently hampering malignant progression and eliminating established tumors. The aims of the study are to rule out acute/chronic toxic effects of the proposed treatment combinations, to assess the effect of these combinations on tumor growth and survival rates, and to investigate potential mechanisms underlying the phenotypic results through analyzing serum levels of anti-tumor cytokines, angiogenic factors and tumor progression indicator, and the tumor-infiltrating immune-cells populations. Methodology: For toxicity analysis, cancer-free C57BL/6 mice are randomized into 9 groups: Group 1 untreated, group 2 treated with sterile saline (solvent of used treatments), group 3 treated with Monophosphoryl-lipid-A, group 4 with anti-CTLA4-antibodies, group 5 with 1-Methyl-Tryptophan (Indolamine-Dioxygenase-1 inhibitor), group 6 with both MPLA and anti-CTLA4-antibodies, group 7 with both MPLA and 1-MT, group 8 with both anti-CTLA4-antibodies and 1-MT, and group 9 with all three: MPLA, anti-CTLA4-antibodies and 1-MT. Mice are monitored throughout the treatment period and for three following months. At that point, histological sections from their main organs are assessed. For tumor progression and survival analysis, a murine melanoma model is generated by injecting analogous mice with B16F10 melanoma cells. These mice are segregated into the listed nine groups. Their tumor size and survival are monitored. For a depiction of underlying mechanisms, melanoma-bearing mice from each group are sacrificed at several time-points. Sera are tested to assess the levels of Interleukin-12 (IL-12), Vascular-Endothelial-Growth Factor (VEGF), and S100B. Furthermore, tumors are excised for analysis of infiltrated immune cell populations including T-cells, macrophages, natural killer cells and immune-regulatory cells. Results: Toxicity analysis shows that all treated groups present no signs of neither acute nor chronic toxicity. Their appearance and weights were comparable to those of control groups throughout the treatment period and for the following 3 months. Moreover, histological sections from their hearts, kidneys, lungs, and livers were normal. Work is ongoing for completion of the remaining study aims. Conclusion: Toxicity was the major concern for the success of the proposed comprehensive combinational therapy. Data generated so far ruled out any acute or chronic toxic effects. Consequently, ongoing work is quite promising and may significantly contribute to the development of more effective immunotherapeutic strategies for the treatment of cancer patients.

Keywords: cancer immunotherapy, check-point blockade, combination therapy, melanoma

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2 The Use of Rule-Based Cellular Automata to Track and Forecast the Dispersal of Classical Biocontrol Agents at Scale, with an Application to the Fopius arisanus Fruit Fly Parasitoid

Authors: Agboka Komi Mensah, John Odindi, Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Onisimo Mutanga, Henri Ez Tonnang

Abstract:

Ecosystems are networks of organisms and populations that form a community of various species interacting within their habitats. Such habitats are defined by abiotic and biotic conditions that establish the initial limits to a population's growth, development, and reproduction. The habitat’s conditions explain the context in which species interact to access resources such as food, water, space, shelter, and mates, allowing for feeding, dispersal, and reproduction. Dispersal is an essential life-history strategy that affects gene flow, resource competition, population dynamics, and species distributions. Despite the importance of dispersal in population dynamics and survival, understanding the mechanism underpinning the dispersal of organisms remains challenging. For instance, when an organism moves into an ecosystem for survival and resource competition, its progression is highly influenced by extrinsic factors such as its physiological state, climatic variables and ability to evade predation. Therefore, greater spatial detail is necessary to understand organism dispersal dynamics. Understanding organisms dispersal can be addressed using empirical and mechanistic modelling approaches, with the adopted approach depending on the study's purpose Cellular automata (CA) is an example of these approaches that have been successfully used in biological studies to analyze the dispersal of living organisms. Cellular automata can be briefly described as occupied cells by an individual that evolves based on proper decisions based on a set of neighbours' rules. However, in the ambit of modelling individual organisms dispersal at the landscape scale, we lack user friendly tools that do not require expertise in mathematical models and computing ability; such as a visual analytics framework for tracking and forecasting the dispersal behaviour of organisms. The term "visual analytics" (VA) describes a semiautomated approach to electronic data processing that is guided by users who can interact with data via an interface. Essentially, VA converts large amounts of quantitative or qualitative data into graphical formats that can be customized based on the operator's needs. Additionally, this approach can be used to enhance the ability of users from various backgrounds to understand data, communicate results, and disseminate information across a wide range of disciplines. To support effective analysis of the dispersal of organisms at the landscape scale, we therefore designed Pydisp which is a free visual data analytics tool for spatiotemporal dispersal modeling built in Python. Its user interface allows users to perform a quick and interactive spatiotemporal analysis of species dispersal using bioecological and climatic data. Pydisp enables reuse and upgrade through the use of simple principles such as Fuzzy cellular automata algorithms. The potential of dispersal modeling is demonstrated in a case study by predicting the dispersal of Fopius arisanus (Sonan), endoparasitoids to control Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Kenya. The results obtained from our example clearly illustrate the parasitoid's dispersal process at the landscape level and confirm that dynamic processes in an agroecosystem are better understood when designed using mechanistic modelling approaches. Furthermore, as demonstrated in the example, the built software is highly effective in portraying the dispersal of organisms despite the unavailability of detailed data on the species dispersal mechanisms.

Keywords: cellular automata, fuzzy logic, landscape, spatiotemporal

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1 Femicide: The Political and Social Blind Spot in the Legal and Welfare State of Germany

Authors: Kristina F. Wolff

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Background: In the Federal Republic of Germany, violence against women is deeply embedded in society. Germany is, as of March 2020, the most populous member state of the European Union with 83.2 million inhabitants and, although more than half of its inhabitants are women, gender equality was not certified in the Basic Law until 1957. Women have only been allowed to enter paid employment without their husband's consent since 1977 and have marital rape prosecuted only since 1997. While the lack of equality between men and women is named in the preamble of the Istanbul Convention as the cause of gender-specific, structural, traditional violence against women, Germany continues to sink on the latest Gender Equality Index. According to Police Crime Statistics (PCS), women are significantly more often victims of lethal violence, emanating from men than vice versa. The PCS, which, since 2015, also collects gender-specific data on violent crimes, is kept by the Federal Criminal Police Office, but without taking into account the relevant criteria for targeted prevention, such as the history of violence of the perpetrator/killer, weapon, motivation, etc.. Institutions such as EIGE or the World Health Organization have been asking Germany for years in vain for comparable data on violence against women in order to gain an overview or to develop cross-border synergies. The PCS are the only official data collection on violence against women. All players involved are depend on this data set, which is published only in November of the following year and is thus already completely outdated at the time of publication. In order to combat German femicides causally, purposefully and efficiently, evidence-based data was urgently needed. Methodology: Beginning in January 2019, a database was set up that now tracks more than 600 German femicides, broken down by more than 100 crime-related individual criteria, which in turn go far beyond the official PCS. These data are evaluated on the one hand by daily media research, and on the other hand by case-specific inquiries at the respective public prosecutor's offices and courts nationwide. This quantitative long-term study covers domestic violence as well as a variety of different types of gender-specific, lethal violence, including, for example, femicides committed by German citizens abroad. Additionallyalcohol/ narcotic and/or drug abuse, infanticides and the gender aspect in the judiciary are also considered. Results: Since November 2020, evidence-based data from a scientific survey have been available for the first time in Germany, supplementing the rudimentary picture of reality provided by PCS with a number of relevant parameters. The most important goal of the study is to identify "red flags" that enable general preventive awareness, that serve increasingly precise hazard assessment in acute hazard situations, and from which concrete instructions for action can be identified. Already at a very early stage of the study it could be proven that in more than half of all femicides with a sexual perpetrator/victim constellation there was an age difference of five years or more. Summary: Without reliable data and an understanding of the nature and extent, cause and effect, it is impossible to sustainably curb violence against girls and women, which increasingly often culminates in femicide. In Germany, valid data from a scientific survey has been available for the first time since November 2020, supplementing the rudimentary reality picture of the official and, to date, sole crime statistics with several relevant parameters. The basic research provides insights into geo-concentration, monthly peaks and the modus operandi of male violent excesses. A significant increase of child homicides in the course of femicides and/or child homicides as an instrument of violence against the mother could be proven as well as a danger of affected persons due to an age difference of five years and more. In view of the steadily increasing wave of violence against women, these study results are an eminent contribution to the preventive containment of German femicides.

Keywords: femicide, violence against women, gender specific data, rule Of law, Istanbul convention, gender equality, gender based violence

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