Search results for: factor models

Authors: Xueqing Ivy Chen, Christo De Coning

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It is clear from practice that a gap exists between Result-Based Monitoring and Evaluation (RBME) as a discipline, and Knowledge Management (KM) on the other hand. Whereas various government departments have institutionalised these functions, KM and M&E has functioned in isolation from each other in a practical sense in the public sector. It’s therefore necessary to explore the relationship between KM and M&E and the necessity for integration, so that a convergence of these disciplines can be established. An integration of KM and M&E will lead to integration and improvement of evidence-based information and policy decision-making. M&E and KM process models are available but the complementarity between specific process steps of these process models are not exploited. A need exists to clarify the relationships between these functions in order to ensure evidence based information and policy decision-making. This paper will depart from the well-known policy process models, such as the generic model and consider recent on the interface between policy, M&E and KM.

Keywords: result-based monitoring and evaluation, RBME, knowledge management, KM, evident based decision making, public policy, information systems, institutional arrangement

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Authors: Salam Alrekabi, A. B. Cundy, Mohammed Haloob Al-Majidi

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Novel multiscale hybrid reinforced cementitious composites based on carbon nanotubes (MHRCC-CNT), and carbon nanofibers (MHRCC-CNF) are new types of cement-based material fabricated with micro steel fibers and nanofilaments, featuring superior strain hardening, ductility, and energy absorption. This study focused on established models to predict the compressive strength, and direct and splitting tensile strengths of the produced cementitious composites. The analysis was carried out based on the experimental data presented by the previous author’s study, regression analysis, and the established models that available in the literature. The obtained models showed small differences in the predictions and target values with experimental verification indicated that the estimation of the mechanical properties could be achieved with good accuracy.

Keywords: multiscale hybrid reinforced cementitious composites, carbon nanotubes, carbon nanofibers, mechanical strength prediction

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Authors: Amin Nakhostin-Ansari, Samaneh Akbarour, Khosro Sadeghniiat Haghighi, Zahra Banafsheh Alemohammad, Farnaz Etesam, Arezu Najafi, Mahnaz Khalafehnilsaz

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Introduction: The outbreak of coronavirus disease has considerably burdened the healthcare system in Iran. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of insomnia experienced by the general Iranian population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: A scale(FCV-19) was used for Fear of COVID-19, Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2), and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale-2 (GAD-2) for detailed characterization of insomnia and its patterns Results: In total, 675 people with insomnia with the mean age of 40.28 years (SD=11.15) participated in this study. Prevalence of difficulty initiating sleep (DIS), difficulty maintaining sleep (DMS), and early morning awakening (EMA) were 91.4%, 86.7%, and 77%, respectively. DIS, DMS, and EMA were more common in people with depression and anxiety. FCV-19 score was higher in those with more severe types of DIS, DMS, and EMA (P<0.001). FCV-19 was a risk factor for all patterns of insomnia (OR=1.19, 1.12, 1.02 for DIS, DMS, and EMA, respectively). Conclusion: fear of COVID-19 is a major factor to insomnia patterns. Investigation of COVID-19 fear in people with insomnia and the addition of attributed relieving or management strategies to conventional management of insomnia are reasonable approaches to improve the sleep condition of people in the pandemic.

Keywords: insomnia, difficulty maintaining sleep, COVID-19, Coronavirus

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Authors: Asimina Paparrigopoulou, John Pavlopoulos, Maria Konstantinidou

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Dating papyri accurately is crucial not only to editing their texts but also for our understanding of palaeography and the history of writing, ancient scholarship, material culture, networks in antiquity, etc. Most ancient manuscripts offer little evidence regarding the time of their production, forcing papyrologists to date them on palaeographical grounds, a method often criticized for its subjectivity. By experimenting with data obtained from the Collaborative Database of Dateable Greek Bookhands and the PapPal online collections of objectively dated Greek papyri, this study shows that deep learning dating models, pre-trained on generic images, can achieve accurate chronological estimates for a test subset (67,97% accuracy for book hands and 55,25% for documents). To compare the estimates of these models with those of humans, experts were asked to complete a questionnaire with samples of literary and documentary hands that had to be sorted chronologically by century. The same samples were dated by the models in question. The results are presented and analysed.

Keywords: image classification, papyri images, dating

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Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model

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Authors: Bret Brooks

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As the international community has focused their attention in recent times on international and transnational terrorism, many nations have ignored their own domestic terrorist groups. Domestic terrorism has significantly evolved over the last 15 years and as such nation states must adequately understand their own individual issues as well as the broader worldwide perspective. Contemporary models show that obtaining peace with domestic groups is not only the end goal, but also very obtainable. By evaluating modern examples and incorporating successful strategies, countries around the world have the ability to bring about a diplomatic resolution to domestic extremism and domestic terrorism.

Keywords: domestic, evolution, peace, terrorism

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Authors: Parveen K. Saini, Mayank Kushwaha

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The influence of material property variation on stress concentration factor (SCF) due to the presence of a circular hole in a functionally graded material (FGM) plate is studied in this paper. A numerical method based on complex variable theory of elasticity is used to investigate the problem. To achieve the material property, variation plate is decomposed into a number of rings. In this research work, Young's modulus is assumed to be varying exponentially and it is found that stress concentration factor can be reduced by increasing Young’s modulus progressively away from the hole.

Keywords: stress concentration, circular hole, FGM plate, bending

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Authors: Sathish Kumar Jayaraj

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The study of urban traffic dynamics, underpinned by the principles of fluid dynamics, offers a distinct perspective to comprehend and enhance the efficiency of traffic flow within bustling cityscapes. Leveraging the concept of the Traffic Flow Factor (TFF) as an analog to the Reynolds number, this research delves into the intricate interplay between traffic density, velocity, and road category, drawing compelling parallels to fluid dynamics phenomena. By introducing the notion of Vehicle Shearing Resistance (VSR) as an analogy to dynamic viscosity, the study sheds light on the multifaceted influence of traffic regulations, lane management, and road infrastructure on the smoothness and resilience of traffic flow. The TFF equation serves as a comprehensive metric for quantifying traffic dynamics, enabling the identification of congestion hotspots, the optimization of traffic signal timings, and the formulation of data-driven traffic management strategies. The study underscores the critical significance of integrating fluid dynamics principles into the domain of urban traffic management, fostering sustainable transportation practices, and paving the way for a more seamless and resilient urban mobility ecosystem.

Keywords: traffic flow factor (TFF), urban traffic dynamics, fluid dynamics principles, vehicle shearing resistance (VSR), traffic congestion management, sustainable urban mobility

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Authors: Xiaohui Wang, Zhichuan Guan, Roman Shor, Chuanbin Xu

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Early monitoring and real-time quantitative description of gas intrusion under the premise of ensuring the integrity of the drilling fluid circulation system will greatly improve the accuracy and effectiveness of deepwater gas-kick monitoring. Therefore, in order to study the propagation characteristics of ultrasonic waves in the gas-liquid two-phase flow within the marine riser, in this paper, a numerical simulation method of ultrasonic propagation in the annulus of the riser was established, and the credibility of the numerical analysis was verified by the experimental results of the established gas intrusion monitoring simulation experimental device. The numerical simulation can solve the sound field in the gas-liquid two-phase flow according to different physical models, and it is easier to realize the single factor control. The influence of each parameter on the received signal can be quantitatively investigated, and the law with practical guiding significance can be obtained.

Keywords: gas-kick detection, ultrasonic, void fraction, coda wave velocity

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Authors: Natnicha Hasoontree

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This purpose of this paper was to investigate the influence of loyalty of inbound tourists towards tourist destinations in Bangkok, Thailand. The antecedents of loyalty in this study included tourists’ satisfaction towards tourist destinations, perceived value of tourist destinations, feelings of engagement with tourist destinations, acquaintance with tourist destinations, and seeking novelty. By using multi-stage sampling technique, 400 tourists were sampled: 200 male and 200 female inbound tourists. The findings revealed that inbound tourists’ satisfaction was the most important factor that could influence the factor of loyalty. The findings indicated that the overall antecedents had a mean of 4.416 with the overall standard deviation of 0.808.

Keywords: antecedents, loyalty, inbound tourists, tourist destinations

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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Authors: Slim Namouchi, Bruno Vallet, Imed Riadh Farah

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3D urban models provide powerful tools for decision making, urban planning, and smart city services. The accuracy of this 3D based systems is directly related to the quality of these models. Since manual large-scale modeling, such as cities or countries is highly time intensive and very expensive process, a fully automatic 3D building generation is needed. However, 3D modeling process result depends on the input data, the proprieties of the captured objects, and the required characteristics of the reconstructed 3D model. Nowadays, producing 3D real-world model is no longer a problem. Remotely sensed data had experienced a remarkable increase in the recent years, especially data acquired using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). While the scanning techniques are developing, the captured data amount and the resolution are getting bigger and more precise. This paper presents a literature review, which aims to identify different methods of automatic 3D buildings extractions either from LiDAR or the combination of LiDAR and satellite or aerial images. Then, we present open source technologies, and data models (e.g., CityGML, PostGIS, Cesiumjs) used to integrate these models in geospatial base layers for smart city services.

Keywords: CityGML, LiDAR, remote sensing, SIG, Smart City, 3D urban modeling

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Authors: Qian Jin

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Museums have been using interactive technology to spark visitor interest and improve understanding. These technologies can play a crucial role in helping visitors understand more about an exhibition site by using multimedia to provide information. Google Arts and Culture and Smartify are two very successful digital heritage products. They used mobile augmented reality to visualise the museum's 3D models and heritage images but did not include 3D models of the collection and audio information. In this research, service-oriented mobile augmented reality application was developed for users to access collections from multiple museums(including V and A, the British Museum, and British Library). The third-party API (Application Programming Interface) is requested to collect metadata (including images, 3D models, videos, and text) of three museums' collections. The acquired content is then visualized in AR environments. This product will help users who cannot visit the museum offline due to various reasons (inconvenience of transportation, physical disability, time schedule).

Keywords: digital heritage, argument reality, museum, flutter, ARcore

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Authors: Eshta Ranyal, Kamal Jain, Vikrant Ranyal

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Potholes are a severe threat to road safety and a major contributing factor towards road distress. In the Indian context, they are a major road hazard. Timely detection of potholes and subsequent repair can prevent the roads from deteriorating. To facilitate the roadway authorities in the timely detection and repair of potholes, we propose a pothole detection methodology using convolutional neural networks. The YOLOv3 model is used as it is fast and accurate in comparison to other state-of-the-art models. You only look once v3 (YOLOv3) is a state-of-the-art, real-time object detection system that features multi-scale detection. A mean average precision(mAP) of 73% was obtained on a training dataset of 200 images. The dataset was then increased to 500 images, resulting in an increase in mAP. We further calculated the depth of the potholes using stereoscopic vision by reconstruction of 3D potholes. This enables calculating pothole volume, its extent, which can then be used to evaluate the pothole severity as low, moderate, high.

Keywords: CNN, pothole detection, pothole severity, YOLO, stereovision

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Authors: Dua Hişam, Serhat İkizoğlu

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Identifying the problem behind balance disorder is one of the most interesting topics in the medical literature. This study has considerably enhanced the development of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms applying multiple machine learning (ML) models to sensory data on gait collected from humans to classify between normal people and those suffering from Vestibular System (VS) problems. Although AI is widely utilized as a diagnostic tool in medicine, AI models have not been used to perform feature extraction and identify VS disorders through training on raw data. In this study, three machine learning (ML) models, the Random Forest Classifier (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), have been trained to detect VS disorder, and the performance comparison of the algorithms has been made using accuracy, recall, precision, and f1-score. With an accuracy of 95.28 %, Random Forest Classifier (RF) was the most accurate model.

Keywords: vestibular disorder, machine learning, random forest classifier, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting

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Authors: Rostika Flora, Muhammad Zulkarnain, Syokumawena

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Background: Aerobic physical exercises are recommended to keep body fit and healthy although physical exercises themselves can increase body metabolism and oxygen and can lead into tissue hypoxia. Oxygen pressure can serve as Vascular Endhothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) regulator. Hypoxia increases gene expression of VEGF through ascendant regulation of HIF-1. VEGF is involved in regulating angiogenesis process. Aerobic physical exercises can increase the concentration of VEGF in brain and enables angiogenesis process. We have investigated the influence of aerobic physical exercise to the VGEF concentration of wistar rat’s brain. Methods: This was experimental study using post test only control group design. Independent t-test was used as statistical test. The samples were twenty four wistar rat (Rattus Norvegicus) which were divided into four groups: group P1 (control group), group P2 (treatment group with once-a-week exercise), group P3 (treatment group with three time-a-week exercise), and group P4 (treatment group with seven time-a-week exercise). Group P2, P3, and P4 were treated with treadmil with speed of 20 m/minute for 30 minutes. The concentration of VEGF was determined by ELISA. Results: There was a significant increase of VEGF in treatment group compared with control one (<0.05). The maximum increase was found in group P2 (129.02±64.49) and the minimum increase was in group P4 (96.98±11.20). Conclusion: The frequency of aerobic physical exercises influenced the concentration of Vascular Endhothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) of brain tissue of Rattus Norvegicus.

Keywords: brain tissue, hypoxia, physical exercises, vascular endhothelial growth factor

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Authors: Kailash C. Madan

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We study four models of a three server queueing system with Bernoulli schedule optional server vacations. Customers arriving at the system one by one in a Poisson process are provided identical exponential service by three parallel servers according to a first-come, first served queue discipline. In model A, all three servers may be allowed a vacation at one time, in Model B at the most two of the three servers may be allowed a vacation at one time, in model C at the most one server is allowed a vacation, and in model D no server is allowed a vacation. We study steady the state behavior of the four models and obtain steady state probability generating functions for the queue size at a random point of time for all states of the system. In model D, a known result for a three server queueing system without server vacations is derived.

Keywords: a three server queue, Bernoulli schedule server vacations, queue size distribution at a random epoch, steady state

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

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This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain a subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from inflow into waste water treatment plant data which Composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms: K-mean and EM were chosen as a clustering method. The rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of subgroups models. The quality of obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables but with no clustering of data. Results were compared by determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on linear chart. Preliminary results allows to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: clustering, data analysis, data mining, predictive models

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Authors: R. E. Vasconcelos, K. R. M. da Silva, J. M. B. Pinto

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This study aims to determine and to present the results of an experimental study of Synthetic (polypropylene) Fibers Reinforced Concrete (SFRC), in levels of 0.33% - 3kg/m3, 0.50% - 4.5kg/m3, and 0.66% - 6kg/m3, using cement CP V – ARI, at ages 28 and 88 days after specimens molding. The specimens were exposed for 60 days in aggressive environment (in solution of water and 3% of sodium chloride), after 28 days. The bending toughness tests were performed in prismatic specimens of 150 x 150 x 500 mm. The toughness factor values of the specimens in aggressive environment were the same to those obtained in normal environment (in air).

Keywords: concrete reinforced with polypropylene fibers, toughness in bending, synthetic fibers, concrete reinforced

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Authors: A. M. Ahmed, Mona A. Darwish

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Removal of Ni++ ions from aqueous solution by sorption ontoNano-bentonite was investigated. Experiments were carried out as a function amount of Nano-bentonite, pH, concentration of metal, constant time, agitation speed and temperature. The adsorption parameter of metal ions followed the Langmuir Freundlich adsorption isotherm were applied to analyze adsorption data. The adsorption process has fit pseudo-second order kinetic models. Thermodynamics parameters e.g.ΔG*, ΔS °and ΔH ° of adsorption process have also been calculated and the sorption process was found to be endothermic. The adsorption process has fit pseudo-second order kinetic models. Langmuir and Freundich adsorption isotherm models were applied to analyze adsorption data and both were found to be applicable to the adsorption process. Thermodynamic parameters, e.g., ∆G °, ∆S ° and ∆H ° of the on-going adsorption process have also been calculated and the sorption process was found to be endothermic. Finally, it can be seen that Bentonite was found to be more effective for the removal of Ni (II) same with some experimental conditions.

Keywords: waste water, nickel, bentonite, adsorption

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Authors: Carlos Theran, Yohn Parra Bautista, Victor Adankai, Richard Alo, Jimwi Liu, Clement G. Yedjou

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder primarily characterized by deteriorating cognitive functions. AD has gained relevant attention in the last decade. An estimated 24 million people worldwide suffered from this disease by 2011. In 2016 an estimated 40 million were diagnosed with AD, and for 2050 is expected to reach 131 million people affected by AD. Therefore, detecting and confirming AD at its different stages is a priority for medical practices to provide adequate and accurate treatments. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) models have been used to study AD's stages handling missing values in multiclass, focusing on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI), Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI), and normal cognitive (CN). But, to our best knowledge, robust performance information of these models and the missing data analysis has not been presented in the literature. In this paper, we propose studying the performance of five different machine learning models for AD's stages multiclass prediction in terms of accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Also, the analysis of three imputation methods to handle the missing value problem is presented. A framework that integrates ML model for AD's stages multiclass prediction is proposed, performing an average accuracy of 84%.

Keywords: alzheimer's disease, missing value, machine learning, performance evaluation

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Authors: Hamid Tavakolipour, Mohsen Mokhtarian, Ahmad Kalbasi Ashtari

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In this study, the effect of various drying methods (sun drying, shade drying and industrial drying) on final moisture content, shell splitting degree, shrinkage and color change were studied. Sun drying resulted higher degree of pistachio nuts shell splitting on pistachio nuts relative other drying methods. The ANOVA results showed that the different drying methods did not significantly effects on color change of dried pistachio nut. The results illustrated that pistachio nut dried by industrial drying had the lowest moisture content. After the end of drying process, initially, the experimental drying data were fitted with five famous drying models namely Newton, Page, Silva et al., Peleg and Henderson and Pabis. The results indicated that Peleg and Page models gave better results compared with other models to monitor the moisture ratio’s pistachio nut in industrial drying and open sun (or shade drying) methods, respectively.

Keywords: industrial drying, pistachio, quality properties, traditional drying

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Authors: Ines Gasmi, Salima Smiti, Makram Soui, Khaled Ghedira

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Credit risk is considered as one of the important issues for financial institutions. It provokes great losses for banks. To this objective, numerous methods for credit risk evaluation have been proposed. Many evaluation methods are black box models that cannot adequately reveal information hidden in the data. However, several works have focused on building transparent rules-based models. For credit risk assessment, generated rules must be not only highly accurate, but also highly interpretable. In this paper, we aim to build both, an accurate and transparent credit risk evaluation model which proposes a set of classification rules. In fact, we consider the credit risk evaluation as an optimization problem which uses a genetic programming (GP) algorithm, where the goal is to maximize the accuracy of generated rules. We evaluate our proposed approach on the base of German and Australian credit datasets. We compared our finding with some existing works; the result shows that the proposed GP outperforms the other models.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, rule generation, genetic programming, feature selection

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Authors: Nazia Mustafa, Aneela Maqsood

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Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory is the most widely used instrument for assessing children and adolescent health-related quality of life and has shown excellent markers of reliability and validity. The current study was carried out with the objectives of translation and cross-language validation along with the determination of factor Structure and psychometric properties of the Urdu version. It was administered on 154 Primary School Children with age range 10 to12 years (M= 10.86, S.D = 0.62); including boys (n=92) and girls (n = 62). The sample was recruited from two randomly selected schools from the Rawalpindi district of Pakistan. Results of the pilot phase revealed that the instrument had good reliability (Urdu Version α = 0.798; English Version α = 0.795) as well as test-retest correlation coefficients over a period of 15 days (r = 0.85). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) resulted in three factorial structures; Social/School Functioning (k = 8), Psychological Functioning (k = 7) and Physical Functioning (k = 6) considered suitable for our sample instead of four factors. Bartlett's test of sphericity showed inter-correlation between variables. However, factor loadings for items 22 and 23 of the School Functioning subscale were problematic. The model was fit to the data after their removal with Cronbach’s Alpha Reliability coefficient of the scale (k = 21) as 0.87 and for subscales as 0.75, 0.77 and 0.73 for Social/School Scale, Psychological subscale and Physical subscale, respectively. These results supported the feasibility and reliability of the Urdu version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory as a reliable and effective tool for the measurement of quality of life among Pediatrics Pakistani population.

Keywords: primary school children, paediatric quality of life, exploratory factor analysis, Pakistan

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Authors: Hesam Sedaghat Nejad, Navid Hosseini, Arash Nikvar Hassani

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Determination of the optimum block size with high profitability is one of the significant parameters in designation of the building stone mines. The aim of this study was to determine the optimum dimensions of building stone blocks in Delichai travertine mine of Damavand in Tehran province through combining the effective parameters proven in determination of the optimum dimensions in building stones such as the spacing of joints and gaps, extraction tools constraints with the help of modeling by Gemcom software. To this end, following simulation of the topography of the mine, the block model was prepared and then in order to use spacing joints and discontinuities as a limiting factor, the existing joints set was added to the model. Since only one almost horizontal joint set with a slope of 5 degrees was available, this factor was effective only in determining the optimum height of the block, and thus to determine the longitudinal and transverse optimum dimensions of the extracted block, the power of available loader in the mine was considered as the secondary limiting factor. According to the aforementioned factors, the optimal block size in this mine was measured as 3.4×4×7 meter.

Keywords: building stone, optimum block size, Delichay travertine mine, loader power

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: S. A. Al-Qallaf, S. A. Al-Mawsawi, A. Haider

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Among all FACTS devices, the unified power flow controller (UPFC) is considered to be the most versatile device. This is due to its capability to control all the transmission system parameters (impedance, voltage magnitude, and phase angle). With the growing interest in UPFC, the attention to develop a mathematical model has increased. Several models were introduced for UPFC in literature for different type of studies in power systems. In this paper a novel comparison study between two dynamic models of UPFC with their proposed control strategies.

Keywords: FACTS, UPFC, dynamic modeling, PWM, fundamental frequency

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Authors: Weng Jiantao, Wu Yiqun

Abstract:

The efficiency of natural ventilation, wind pressure distribution on building surface, wind comfort for pedestrians and buildings’ wind tolerance in traditional settlements are closely related to the pattern of terrain. On the basis of field research on the typical island terrain in China, the physical and mathematical models are established by using CFD software, and then the simulation results of the wind field are exported. We discuss the relationship between wind direction and wind field results. Furthermore simulation results are imported into ArcGIS platform. The evaluation model of island site selection is established with considering slope factor. We realize the visual model of site selection on complex island terrain. The multi-plans of certain residential are discussed based on wind simulation; at last the optimal project is selected. Results can provide the theory guidance for settlement planning and construction in China's traditional island.

Keywords: CFD, island terrain, site selection, construction mechanism

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