Search results for: time series representation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20815

Search results for: time series representation

12265 Cost-Effective Mechatronic Gaming Device for Post-Stroke Hand Rehabilitation

Authors: A. Raj Kumar, S. Bilaloglu

Abstract:

Stroke is a leading cause of adult disability worldwide. We depend on our hands for our activities of daily living(ADL). Although many patients regain the ability to walk, they continue to experience long-term hand motor impairments. As the number of individuals with young stroke is increasing, there is a critical need for effective approaches for rehabilitation of hand function post-stroke. Motor relearning for dexterity requires task-specific kinesthetic, tactile and visual feedback. However, when a stroke results in both sensory and motor impairment, it becomes difficult to ascertain when and what type of sensory substitutions can facilitate motor relearning. In an ideal situation, real-time task-specific data on the ability to learn and data-driven feedback to assist such learning will greatly assist rehabilitation for dexterity. We have found that kinesthetic and tactile information from the unaffected hand can assist patients re-learn the use of optimal fingertip forces during a grasp and lift task. Measurement of fingertip grip force (GF), load forces (LF), their corresponding rates (GFR and LFR), and other metrics can be used to gauge the impairment level and progress during learning. Currently ATI mini force-torque sensors are used in research settings to measure and compute the LF, GF, and their rates while grasping objects of different weights and textures. Use of the ATI sensor is cost prohibitive for deployment in clinical or at-home rehabilitation. A cost effective mechatronic device is developed to quantify GF, LF, and their rates for stroke rehabilitation purposes using off-the-shelf components such as load cells, flexi-force sensors, and an Arduino UNO microcontroller. A salient feature of the device is its integration with an interactive gaming environment to render a highly engaging user experience. This paper elaborates the integration of kinesthetic and tactile sensing through computation of LF, GF and their corresponding rates in real time, information processing, and interactive interfacing through augmented reality for visual feedback.

Keywords: feedback, gaming, kinesthetic, rehabilitation, tactile

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
12264 Women's Religiosity as a Factor in the Persistence of Religious Traditions: Kazakhstan, the XX Century

Authors: G. Nadirova, B. Aktaulova

Abstract:

The main question of the research is- how did the Kazakhs manage to keep their religious thinking in the period of active propaganda of Soviet atheism, for seventy years of struggle against religion with the involvement of the scientific worldview as the primary means of proving the absence of the divine nature and materiality of the world? Our hypothesis is that In case of Kazakhstan the conservative female religious consciousness seems to have been a factor that helped to preserve the “everyday” religiousness of Kazakhs, which was far from deep theological contents of Islam, but able to revive in a short time after the decennia of proclaimed atheism.

Keywords: woman, religious thinking, Kazakhstan, soviet ideology, rituals, family

Procedia PDF Downloads 215
12263 Double Functionalization of Magnetic Colloids with Electroactive Molecules and Antibody for Platelet Detection and Separation

Authors: Feixiong Chen, Naoufel Haddour, Marie Frenea-Robin, Yves MéRieux, Yann Chevolot, Virginie Monnier

Abstract:

Neonatal thrombopenia occurs when the mother generates antibodies against her baby’s platelet antigens. It is particularly critical for newborns because it can cause coagulation troubles leading to intracranial hemorrhage. In this case, diagnosis must be done quickly to make platelets transfusion immediately after birth. Before transfusion, platelet antigens must be tested carefully to avoid rejection. The majority of thrombopenia (95 %) are caused by antibodies directed against Human Platelet Antigen 1a (HPA-1a) or 5b (HPA-5b). The common method for antigen platelets detection is polymerase chain reaction allowing for identification of gene sequence. However, it is expensive, time-consuming and requires significant blood volume which is not suitable for newborns. We propose to develop a point-of-care device based on double functionalized magnetic colloids with 1) antibodies specific to antigen platelets and 2) highly sensitive electroactive molecules in order to be detected by an electrochemical microsensor. These magnetic colloids will be used first to isolate platelets from other blood components, then to capture specifically platelets bearing HPA-1a and HPA-5b antigens and finally to attract them close to sensor working electrode for improved electrochemical signal. The expected advantages are an assay time lower than 20 min starting from blood volume smaller than 100 µL. Our functionalization procedure based on amine dendrimers and NHS-ester modification of initial carboxyl colloids will be presented. Functionalization efficiency was evaluated by colorimetric titration of surface chemical groups, zeta potential measurements, infrared spectroscopy, fluorescence scanning and cyclic voltammetry. Our results showed that electroactive molecules and antibodies can be immobilized successfully onto magnetic colloids. Application of a magnetic field onto working electrode increased the detected electrochemical signal. Magnetic colloids were able to capture specific purified antigens extracted from platelets.

Keywords: Magnetic Nanoparticles , Electroactive Molecules, Antibody, Platelet

Procedia PDF Downloads 271
12262 Toward Subtle Change Detection and Quantification in Magnetic Resonance Neuroimaging

Authors: Mohammad Esmaeilpour

Abstract:

One of the important open problems in the field of medical image processing is detection and quantification of small changes. In this poster, we try to investigate that, how the algebraic decomposition techniques can be used for semiautomatically detecting and quantifying subtle changes in Magnetic Resonance (MR) neuroimaging volumes. We mostly focus on the low-rank values of the matrices achieved from decomposing MR image pairs during a period of time. Besides, a skillful neuroradiologist will help the algorithm to distinguish between noises and small changes.

Keywords: magnetic resonance neuroimaging, subtle change detection and quantification, algebraic decomposition, basis functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 476
12261 A Dual-Mode Infinite Horizon Predictive Control Algorithm for Load Tracking in PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor

Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

Abstract:

The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
12260 To Investigate a Discharge Planning Connect with Long Term Care 2.0 Program in a Medical Center in Taiwan

Authors: Chan Hui-Ya, Ding Shin-Tan

Abstract:

Background and Aim: The discharge planning is considered helpful to reduce the hospital length of stay and readmission rate, and then increased satisfaction with healthcare for patients and professionals. In order to decrease the waiting time of long-term care and boost the care quality of patients after discharge from the hospital, the Ministry of Health and Welfare department in Taiwan initiates a program “discharge planning connects with long-term care 2.0 services” in 2017. The purpose of this study is to investigate the outcome of the pilot of this program in a medical center. Methods: By purpose sampling, the study chose five wards in a medical center as pilot units. The researchers compared the beds of service, the numbers of cases which were transferred to the long-term care center and transferred rates per month between the pilot units and the other units, and analyze the basic data, the long-term care service needs and the approval service items of cases transfer to the long-term care center in pilot units. Results: From June to September 2017, a total of 92 referrals were made, and 51 patients were enrolled into the pilot program. There is a significant difference of transferring rate between the pilot units and the other units (χ = 702.6683, p < 0.001). Only 20 cases (39.2% success rate) were approved to accept the parts of service items of long-term care in the pilot units. The most approval item was respite care service (n = 13; 65%), while it was third at needs ranking of service lists during linking services process. Among the reasons of patients who cancelled the request, 38.71% reasons were related to the services which could not match the patients’ needs and expectation. Conclusion: The results indicate there is a requirement to modify the long-term care services to fit the needs of cases. The researchers suggest estimating the potential cases by screening data from hospital informatics systems and to hire more case manager according the service time of potential cases. Meanwhile, the strategies shortened the assessment scale and authorized hospital case managers to approve some items of long-term care should be considered.

Keywords: discharge planning, long-term care, case manager, patient care

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
12259 Crime Prevention with Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Sahraei

Abstract:

Today, with the increase in quantity and quality and variety of crimes, the discussion of crime prevention has faced a serious challenge that human resources alone and with traditional methods will not be effective. One of the developments in the modern world is the presence of artificial intelligence in various fields, including criminal law. In fact, the use of artificial intelligence in criminal investigations and fighting crime is a necessity in today's world. The use of artificial intelligence is far beyond and even separate from other technologies in the struggle against crime. Second, its application in criminal science is different from the discussion of prevention and it comes to the prediction of crime. Crime prevention in terms of the three factors of the offender, the offender and the victim, following a change in the conditions of the three factors, based on the perception of the criminal being wise, and therefore increasing the cost and risk of crime for him in order to desist from delinquency or to make the victim aware of self-care and possibility of exposing him to danger or making it difficult to commit crimes. While the presence of artificial intelligence in the field of combating crime and social damage and dangers, like an all-seeing eye, regardless of time and place, it sees the future and predicts the occurrence of a possible crime, thus prevent the occurrence of crimes. The purpose of this article is to collect and analyze the studies conducted on the use of artificial intelligence in predicting and preventing crime. How capable is this technology in predicting crime and preventing it? The results have shown that the artificial intelligence technologies in use are capable of predicting and preventing crime and can find patterns in the data set. find large ones in a much more efficient way than humans. In crime prediction and prevention, the term artificial intelligence can be used to refer to the increasing use of technologies that apply algorithms to large sets of data to assist or replace police. The use of artificial intelligence in our debate is in predicting and preventing crime, including predicting the time and place of future criminal activities, effective identification of patterns and accurate prediction of future behavior through data mining, machine learning and deep learning, and data analysis, and also the use of neural networks. Because the knowledge of criminologists can provide insight into risk factors for criminal behavior, among other issues, computer scientists can match this knowledge with the datasets that artificial intelligence uses to inform them.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, criminology, crime, prevention, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
12258 A Semantic E-Learning and E-Assessment System of Learners

Authors: Wiem Ben Khalifa, Dalila Souilem, Mahmoud Neji

Abstract:

The evolutions of Social Web and Semantic Web lead us to ask ourselves about the way of supporting the personalization of learning by means of intelligent filtering of educational resources published in the digital networks. We recommend personalized courses of learning articulated around a first educational course defined upstream. Resuming the context and the stakes in the personalization, we also suggest anchoring the personalization of learning in a community of interest within a group of learners enrolled in the same training. This reflection is supported by the display of an active and semantic system of learning dedicated to the constitution of personalized to measure courses and in the due time.

Keywords: Semantic Web, semantic system, ontology, evaluation, e-learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 338
12257 Quantification of the Erosion Effect on Small Caliber Guns: Experimental and Numerical Analysis

Authors: Dhouibi Mohamed, Stirbu Bogdan, Chabotier André, Pirlot Marc

Abstract:

Effects of erosion and wear on the performance of small caliber guns have been analyzed throughout numerical and experimental studies. Mainly, qualitative observations were performed. Correlations between the volume change of the chamber and the maximum pressure are limited. This paper focuses on the development of a numerical model to predict the maximum pressure evolution when the interior shape of the chamber changes in the different weapon’s life phases. To fulfill this goal, an experimental campaign, followed by a numerical simulation study, is carried out. Two test barrels, « 5.56x45mm NATO » and « 7.62x51mm NATO,» are considered. First, a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) with a contact scanning probe is used to measure the interior profile of the barrels after each 300-shots cycle until their worn out. Simultaneously, the EPVAT (Electronic Pressure Velocity and Action Time) method with a special WEIBEL radar are used to measure: (i) the chamber pressure, (ii) the action time, (iii) and the bullet velocity in each barrel. Second, a numerical simulation study is carried out. Thus, a coupled interior ballistic model is developed using the dynamic finite element program LS-DYNA. In this work, two different models are elaborated: (i) coupled Eularien Lagrangian method using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) techniques and a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element using a lumped parameter model (LPM) as a subroutine. Those numerical models are validated and checked through three experimental results, such as (i) the muzzle velocity, (ii) the chamber pressure, and (iii) the surface morphology of fired projectiles. Results show a good agreement between experiments and numerical simulations. Next, a comparison between the two models is conducted. The projectile motions, the dynamic engraving resistances and the maximum pressures are compared and analyzed. Finally, using this obtained database, a statistical correlation between the muzzle velocity, the maximum pressure and the chamber volume is established.

Keywords: engraving process, finite element analysis, gun barrel erosion, interior ballistics, statistical correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 218
12256 The Impact of E-Marketing on Consumer Satisfaction

Authors: Nadia Fatima Zahra Malki

Abstract:

The world has witnessed a great revolution in to field of technology and communication, especially after the opening of markets (globalization). This has led to a change from traditional marketing, which depends on direct selling and buying, to electronic marketing; consequently, different corporations have adopted this new concept so as to gain time, effort and money for the sake of the customer’s satisfaction. The main reason for this study is to know the impact of electronic marketing on consumer satisfaction in the fields of communication through practical studies of Ooredoo customers, where the descriptive analytical method was used with statistics to analyze the results of the survey. It concluded that e-marketing effectively contributes to customer satisfaction.

Keywords: e-marketing, consumer, consumer behavior, satisfaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
12255 Properties of Magnesium-Based Hydrogen Storage Alloy Added with Palladium and Titanium Hydride

Authors: Jun Ying Lin, Tzu Hsiang Yen, Cha'o Kuang Chen

Abstract:

Nowadays, the great majority believe that there is great potentiality in hydrogen storage alloy storing hydrogen by physical and chemical absorption. However, the hydrogen storage alloy is limited by high operation temperature. Scientists find that adding transition elements can improve the properties of hydrogen storage alloy. In this research, outstanding improvements of kinetic and thermal properties are given by the addition of Palladium and Titanium hydride to Magnesium-based hydrogen storage alloy. Magnesium-based alloy is the main material, into which TiH2 / Pd are added separately. Following that, materials are milled by a Planetary Ball Miller at 650 rpm. TGA/DSC and PCT measure the capacity, spending time and temperature of abs/des-orption. Additionally, SEM and XRD analyze the structures and components of material. It is clearly shown that Pd is beneficial to kinetic properties. 2MgH2-0.1Pd has the highest capacity of all the alloys listed, approximately 5.5 wt%. Secondly, there are not any new Ti-related compounds found from XRD analysis. Thus, TiH2, considered as the catalyst, leads to the condition of 2MgH2-TiH2 and 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd efficiently absorbing hydrogen in low temperature. 2MgH2-TiH2 can reach roughly 3.0 wt% in 82.4 minutes at 50°C and 8 minutes at 100°C, while2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd can reach 2.0 wt% in 400 minutes at 50°C and in 48 minutes at 100°C. The lowest temperature of 2MgH2-0.1Pd and 2MgH2-TiH2 is similar (320°C), otherwise the lowest temperature of 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd decrease by 20°C. From XRD, it can be observed that PdTi2 and Pd3Ti are produced by mechanical alloying when adding Pd as well as TiH2 into MgH2. Due to the synergistic effects between Pd and TiH2, 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd owns the lowest dehydrogenation temperature. Furthermore, the Pressure-Composition-Temperature (PCT) curve of 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd is measured at different temperature, 370°C, 350°C, 320°C and 300°C separately. The plateau pressure is given form the PCT curves above. In accordance to different plateau pressures, enthalpy and entropy in the Van’t Hoff equation can be solved. In 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd, the enthalpy is 74.9 KJ/mol and the entropy is 122.9 J/mol. Activation means that hydrogen storage alloy undergoes repeat abs/des-orpting processes. It plays an important role in the abs/des-orption. Activation shortens the abs/des-orption time because of the increase in surface area. From SEM, it is clear that the grain size and surface become smaller and rougher

Keywords: hydrogen storage materials, magnesium hydride, abs-/des-orption performance, Plateau pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 271
12254 Effects of Intracerebroventricular Injection of Ghrelin and Aerobic Exercise on Passive Avoidance Memory and Anxiety in Adult Male Wistar Rats

Authors: Mohaya Farzin, Parvin Babaei, Mohammad Rostampour

Abstract:

Ghrelin plays a considerable role in important neurological effects related to food intake and energy homeostasis. As was found, regular physical activity may make available significant improvements to cognitive functions in various behavioral situations. Anxiety is one of the main concerns of the modern world, affecting millions of individuals’ health. There are contradictory results regarding ghrelin's effects on anxiety-like behavior, and the plasma level of this peptide is increased during physical activity. Here we aimed to evaluate the coincident effects of exogenous ghrelin and aerobic exercise on anxiety-like behavior and passive avoidance memory in Wistar rats. Forty-five male Wistar rats (250 ± 20 g) were divided into 9 groups (n=5) and received intra-hippocampal injections of 3.0 nmol ghrelin and performed aerobic exercise training for 8 weeks. Control groups received the same volume of saline and diazepam as negative and positive control groups, respectively. Learning and memory were estimated using a shuttle box apparatus, and anxiety-like behavior was recorded by an elevated plus-maze test (EPM). Data were analyzed by ANOVA test, and p<0.05 was considered significant. Our findings showed that the combined effect of ghrelin and aerobic exercise improves the acquisition, consolidation, and retrieval of passive avoidance memory in Wistar rats. Furthermore, it is supposed that the ghrelin receiving group spent less time in open arms and fewer open arms entries compared with the control group (p<0.05). However, exercising Wistar rats spent more time in the open arm zone in comparison with the control group (p<0.05). The exercise + Ghrelin administration established reduced anxiety (p<0.05). The results of this study demonstrate that aerobic exercise contributes to an increase in the endogenous production of ghrelin, and physical activity alleviates anxiety-related behaviors induced by intra-hippocampal injection of ghrelin. In general, exercise and ghrelin can reduce anxiety and improve memory.

Keywords: anxiety, ghrelin, aerobic exercise, learning, passive avoidance memory

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
12253 Toward a Measure of Appropriateness of User Interfaces Adaptations Solutions

Authors: Abderrahim Siam, Ramdane Maamri, Zaidi Sahnoun

Abstract:

The development of adaptive user interfaces (UI) presents for a long time an important research area in which researcher attempt to call upon the full resources and skills of several disciplines. The adaptive UI community holds a thorough knowledge regarding the adaptation of UIs with users and with contexts of use. Several solutions, models, formalisms, techniques, and mechanisms were proposed to develop adaptive UI. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the fuzzy set theory for modeling the concept of the appropriateness of different solutions of UI adaptation with different situations for which interactive systems have to adapt their UIs.

Keywords: adaptive user interfaces, adaptation solution’s appropriateness, fuzzy sets

Procedia PDF Downloads 489
12252 Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Using a Multilayer Network Approach

Authors: Nelson F. F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira, Lucio P. de Andrade

Abstract:

Bays, estuaries and coastal ecosystems are some of the most used and threatened natural systems globally. Its deterioration is due to intense and increasing human activities. This paper aims to monitor the socio-ecological in Brazil, model and simulate it through a multilayer network representing a DPSIR structure (Drivers, Pressures, States-Impacts-Responses) considering the concept of Management based on Ecosystems to support decision-making under the National/State/Municipal Coastal Management policy. This approach considers several interferences and can represent a significant advance in several scientific aspects. The main objective of this paper is the coupling of three different types of complex networks, the first being an ecological network, the second a social network, and the third a network of economic activities, in order to model the marine ecosystem. Multilayer networks comprise two or more "layers", which may represent different types of interactions, different communities, different points in time, and so on. The dependency between layers results from processes that affect the various layers. For example, the dispersion of individuals between two patches affects the network structure of both samples. A multilayer network consists of (i) a set of physical nodes representing entities (e.g., species, people, companies); (ii) a set of layers, which may include multiple layering aspects (e.g., time dependency and multiple types of relationships); (iii) a set of state nodes, each of which corresponds to the manifestation of a given physical node in a layer-specific; and (iv) a set of edges (weighted or not) to connect the state nodes among themselves. The edge set includes the intralayer edges familiar and interlayer ones, which connect state nodes between layers. The applied methodology in an existent case uses the Flow cytometry process and the modeling of ecological relationships (trophic and non-trophic) following fuzzy theory concepts and graph visualization. The identification of subnetworks in the fuzzy graphs is carried out using a specific computational method. This methodology allows considering the influence of different factors and helps their contributions to the decision-making process.

Keywords: marine ecosystems, complex systems, multilayer network, ecosystems management

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
12251 Studies on the Emergence Pattern of Cercariae from Fresh Water Snails (Mollusca: Gastropoda)

Authors: V. R. Kakulte, K. N. Gaikwad

Abstract:

The emergence pattern of different types of cercariae form three snail hosts Melania tuberculata, Lymnea auricularia Viviparous bengalensis has been studied in detail. In natural emerging method the snails (2 to 3 at a time) were kept in separate test tube. This was constant source of living cercariae naturally emerging from the snails. The sunlight and artificial light play an important positive role in stimulating the emergence of cercariae has been observed. The effect of light and dark on the emission pattern of cercariae has been studied.

Keywords: cercariae, snail host, emergence pattern, gastropoda

Procedia PDF Downloads 318
12250 Preparation, Characterization and Photocatalytic Activity of a New Noble Metal Modified TiO2@SrTiO3 and SrTiO3 Photocatalysts

Authors: Ewelina Grabowska, Martyna Marchelek

Abstract:

Among the various semiconductors, nanosized TiO2 has been widely studied due to its high photosensitivity, low cost, low toxicity, and good chemical and thermal stability. However, there are two main drawbacks to the practical application of pure TiO2 films. One is that TiO2 can be induced only by ultraviolet (UV) light due to its intrinsic wide bandgap (3.2 eV for anatase and 3.0 eV for rutile), which limits its practical efficiency for solar energy utilization since UV light makes up only 4-5% of the solar spectrum. The other is that a high electron-hole recombination rate will reduce the photoelectric conversion efficiency of TiO2. In order to overcome the above drawbacks and modify the electronic structure of TiO2, some semiconductors (eg. CdS, ZnO, PbS, Cu2O, Bi2S3, and CdSe) have been used to prepare coupled TiO2 composites, for improving their charge separation efficiency and extending the photoresponse into the visible region. It has been proved that the fabrication of p-n heterostructures by combining n-type TiO2 with p-type semiconductors is an effective way to improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency of TiO2. SrTiO3 is a good candidate for coupling TiO2 and improving the photocatalytic performance of the photocatalyst because its conduction band edge is more negative than TiO2. Due to the potential differences between the band edges of these two semiconductors, the photogenerated electrons transfer from the conduction band of SrTiO3 to that of TiO2. Conversely, the photogenerated electrons transfer from the conduction band of SrTiO3 to that of TiO2. Then the photogenerated charge carriers can be efficiently separated by these processes, resulting in the enhancement of the photocatalytic property in the photocatalyst. Additionally, one of the methods for improving photocatalyst performance is addition of nanoparticles containing one or two noble metals (Pt, Au, Ag and Pd) deposited on semiconductor surface. The mechanisms were proposed as (1) the surface plasmon resonance of noble metal particles is excited by visible light, facilitating the excitation of the surface electron and interfacial electron transfer (2) some energy levels can be produced in the band gap of TiO2 by the dispersion of noble metal nanoparticles in the TiO2 matrix; (3) noble metal nanoparticles deposited on TiO2 act as electron traps, enhancing the electron–hole separation. In view of this, we recently obtained series of TiO2@SrTiO3 and SrTiO3 photocatalysts loaded with noble metal NPs. using photodeposition method. The M- TiO2@SrTiO3 and M-SrTiO3 photocatalysts (M= Rh, Rt, Pt) were studied for photodegradation of phenol in aqueous phase under UV-Vis and visible irradiation. Moreover, in the second part of our research hydroxyl radical formations were investigated. Fluorescence of irradiated coumarin solution was used as a method of ˙OH radical detection. Coumarin readily reacts with generated hydroxyl radicals forming hydroxycoumarins. Although the major hydroxylation product is 5-hydroxycoumarin, only 7-hydroxyproduct of coumarin hydroxylation emits fluorescent light. Thus, this method was used only for hydroxyl radical detection, but not for determining concentration of hydroxyl radicals.

Keywords: composites TiO2, SrTiO3, photocatalysis, phenol degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
12249 An Analytical Formulation of Pure Shear Boundary Condition for Assessing the Response of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Authors: Raj Banerjee, Aniruddha Sengupta

Abstract:

An earthquake event, associated with a typical fault rupture, initiates at the source, propagates through a rock or soil medium and finally daylights at a surface which might be a populous city. The detrimental effects of an earthquake are often quantified in terms of the responses of superstructures resting on the soil. Hence, there is a need for the estimation of amplification of the bedrock motions due to the influence of local site conditions. In the present study, field borehole log data of Mangalwadi and Walkeswar sites in Mumbai city are considered. The data consists of variation of SPT N-value with the depth of soil. A correlation between shear wave velocity (Vₛ) and SPT N value for various soil profiles of Mumbai city has been developed using various existing correlations which is used further for site response analysis. MATLAB program is developed for studying the ground response analysis by performing two dimensional linear and equivalent linear analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites using pure shear (Multi Point Constraint) boundary condition. The model is validated in linear elastic and equivalent linear domain using the popular commercial program, DEEPSOIL. Three actual earthquake motions are selected based on their frequency contents and durations and scaled to a PGA of 0.16g for the present ground response analyses. The results are presented in terms of peak acceleration time history with depth, peak shear strain time history with depth, Fourier amplitude versus frequency, response spectrum at the surface etc. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.374, 3.239 and 2.4245 for Mangalwadi site and 3.42, 3.39, 3.83 for Walkeswar site using 1979 Imperial Valley Earthquake, 1989 Loma Gilroy Earthquake and 1987 Whitter Narrows Earthquake, respectively. In the absence of any site-specific response spectrum for the chosen sites in Mumbai, the generated spectrum at the surface may be utilized for the design of any superstructure at these locations.

Keywords: deepsoil, ground response analysis, multi point constraint, response spectrum

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
12248 Anaerobic Digestion of Organic Wastes for Biogas Production

Authors: Ayhan Varol, Aysenur Ugurlu

Abstract:

Due to the depletion of fossil fuels and climate change, there is a rising interest in renewable energy sources. In this concept, a wide range of biomass (energy crops, animal manure, solid wastes, etc.) are used for energy production. There has been a growing interest in biomethane production from biomass. Biomethane production from organic wastes is a promising alternative for waste management by providing organic matter stabilization. Anaerobic digestion of organic material produces biogas, and organic substrate is degraded into a more stable material. Therefore, anaerobic digestion technology helps reduction of carbon emissions and produces renewable energy. The hydraulic retention time (HRT) and organic loading rate (OLR), as well as TS (VS) loadings, influences the anaerobic digestion of organic wastes significantly. The optimum range for HRT varies between 15 days to 30 days, whereas OLR differs between 0.5 to 5 g/L.d depending on the substrate type and its lipid, protein and carbohydrate contents. The organic wastes have biogas production potential through anaerobic digestion. In this study, biomethane production potential of wastes like sugar beet bagasse, agricultural residues, food wastes, olive mill pulp, and dairy manure having different characteristics was investigated in mesophilic CSTR reactor, and their performances were compared. The reactor was mixed in order to provide homogenized content at a rate of 80 rpm. The organic matter content of these wastes was between 85 to 94 % with 61% (olive pulp) to 22 % (food waste) dry matter content. The hydraulic retention time changed between 20-30 days. High biogas productions, 13.45 to 5.70 mL/day, were achieved from the wastes studied when operated at 9 to 10.5% TS loadings where OLR varied between 2.92 and 3.95 gVS/L.day. The results showed that food wastes have higher specific methane production rate and volumetric methane production potential than the other wastes studied, under the similar OLR values. The SBP was 680, 585, 540, 390 and 295 mL/g VS for food waste, agricultural residues, sugar beet bagasse, olive pulp and dairy manure respectively. The methane content of the biogas varied between 72 and 60 %. The volatile solids conversion rate for food waste was 62%.

Keywords: biogas production, organic wastes, biomethane, anaerobic digestion

Procedia PDF Downloads 281
12247 Dynamic Communications Mapping in NoC-Based Heterogeneous MPSoCs

Authors: M. K. Benhaoua, A. K. Singh, A. E. H. Benyamina

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose heuristic for dynamic communications mapping that considers the placement of communications in order to optimize the overall performance. The mapping technique uses a newly proposed Algorithm to place communications between the tasks. The placement we propose of the communications leads to a better optimization of several performance metrics (time and energy consumption). Experimental results show that the proposed mapping approach provides significant performance improvements when compared to those using static routing.

Keywords: Multi-Processor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoCs), Network-on-Chip (NoC), heterogeneous architectures, dynamic mapping heuristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 537
12246 Acceleration and Deceleration Behavior in the Vicinity of a Speed Camera, and Speed Section Control

Authors: Jean Felix Tuyisingize

Abstract:

Speeding or inappropriate speed is a major problem worldwide, contributing to 10-15% of road crashes and 30% of fatal injury crashes. The consequences of speeding put the driver's life at risk and the lives of other road users like motorists, cyclists, and pedestrians. To control vehicle speeds, governments, and traffic authorities enforced speed regulations through speed cameras and speed section control, which monitor all vehicle speeds and detect plate numbers to levy penalties. However, speed limit violations are prevalent, even on motorways with speed cameras. The problem with speed cameras is that they alter driver behaviors, and their effect declines with increasing distance from the speed camera location. Drivers decelerate short distances before the camera and vigorously accelerate above the speed limit just after passing by the camera. The sudden decelerating near cameras causes the drivers to try to make up for lost time after passing it, and they do this by speeding up, resulting in a phenomenon known as the "Kangaroo jump" or "V-profile" around camera/ASSC areas. This study investigated the impact of speed enforcement devices, specifically Average Speed Section Control (ASSCs) and fixed cameras, on acceleration and deceleration events within their vicinity. The research employed advanced statistical and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis on naturalistic driving data, to uncover speeding patterns near the speed enforcement systems. The study revealed a notable concentration of events within a 600-meter radius of enforcement devices, suggesting their influence on driver behaviors within a specific range. However, most of these events are of low severity, suggesting that drivers may not significantly alter their speed upon encountering these devices. This behavior could be attributed to several reasons, such as consistently maintaining safe speeds or using real-time in-vehicle intervention systems. The complexity of driver behavior is also highlighted, indicating the potential influence of factors like traffic density, road conditions, weather, time of day, and driver characteristics. Further, the study highlighted that high-severity events often occurred outside speed enforcement zones, particularly around intersections, indicating these as potential hotspots for drastic speed changes. These findings call for a broader perspective on traffic safety interventions beyond reliance on speed enforcement devices. However, the study acknowledges certain limitations, such as its reliance on a specific geographical focus, which may impact the broad applicability of the findings. Additionally, the severity of speed modification events was categorized into low, medium, and high, which could oversimplify the continuum of speed changes and potentially mask trends within each category. This research contributes valuable insights to traffic safety and driver behavior literature, illuminating the complexity of driver behavior and the potential influence of factors beyond the presence of speed enforcement devices. Future research directions may employ various categories of event severity. They may also explore the role of in-vehicle technologies, driver characteristics, and a broader set of environmental variables in driving behavior and traffic safety.

Keywords: acceleration, deceleration, speeding, inappropriate speed, speed enforcement cameras

Procedia PDF Downloads 36
12245 State of Conservation of the British Colonial Architectural Heritage of Karachi: Case Study of Damage Mapping of Empress Market Building

Authors: Tania Ali Soomro

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In 1839, the British, after the annexation of the port city of Karachi, established a new urban centre consisting of various quarters and introduced new settlements there. These quarters were out of the boundaries of fortified native old area and now contain much of the oldest parts of the city and signify the colonial history of Karachi, in particular the Saddar Bazaar and the neighboring areas of Kharadar and Mithadar. These quarters bestow a mix of functional typology built in a hybrid form of construction - an adaptation of the western architectural attributes to regional requirements and characteristics. This approach is referred to as the Anglo Vernacular, Colonial or the Domestic Gothic architectural form. This research paper investigates the historical and architectural value of one such property: the Empress Market designed by then Municipal Architect, Ar. James Strachan in 1889 as a commemorative monument for the jubilee of Her Majesty the Queen Victoria; Empress of British India, at that time. This paper presents information on the present conservation status of the market building and highlights its role as a catalyst to the community interconnection. This building has survived to present day and functioned well, despite undergoing numerous transformations. A detailed analysis of the bio-degradation (Natural-Chemical dissolution of material) and the bio-deterioration (Manmade-Negative state change of the material) of the building, based on the examination of the prevailing causes of these bio-alterations is carried out, and is presented in form of a damage atlas containing both the categories of bio-alteration/ changes occurred to the building over the time. The research methodology followed in this paper starts with the available archival analysis, physical observation, photographic documentation, the statistics review and the interviews with the direct and indirect stakeholders. The results and findings of this research portray that these bio-alterations and changes are the essential part of the life cycle of Empress Market building which illustrate the historic development of the premise and therefore ought to be given due importance (depending upon their condition) while developing the conservation plan for the building.

Keywords: British colonial architecture, bio-alteration, bio-degradation, bio-deterioration, domestic gothic architectural form

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
12244 A Xenon Mass Gauging through Heat Transfer Modeling for Electric Propulsion Thrusters

Authors: A. Soria-Salinas, M.-P. Zorzano, J. Martín-Torres, J. Sánchez-García-Casarrubios, J.-L. Pérez-Díaz, A. Vakkada-Ramachandran

Abstract:

The current state-of-the-art methods of mass gauging of Electric Propulsion (EP) propellants in microgravity conditions rely on external measurements that are taken at the surface of the tank. The tanks are operated under a constant thermal duty cycle to store the propellant within a pre-defined temperature and pressure range. We demonstrate using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that the heat-transfer within the pressurized propellant generates temperature and density anisotropies. This challenges the standard mass gauging methods that rely on the use of time changing skin-temperatures and pressures. We observe that the domes of the tanks are prone to be overheated, and that a long time after the heaters of the thermal cycle are switched off, the system reaches a quasi-equilibrium state with a more uniform density. We propose a new gauging method, which we call the Improved PVT method, based on universal physics and thermodynamics principles, existing TRL-9 technology and telemetry data. This method only uses as inputs the temperature and pressure readings of sensors externally attached to the tank. These sensors can operate during the nominal thermal duty cycle. The improved PVT method shows little sensitivity to the pressure sensor drifts which are critical towards the end-of-life of the missions, as well as little sensitivity to systematic temperature errors. The retrieval method has been validated experimentally with CO2 in gas and fluid state in a chamber that operates up to 82 bar within a nominal thermal cycle of 38 °C to 42 °C. The mass gauging error is shown to be lower than 1% the mass at the beginning of life, assuming an initial tank load at 100 bar. In particular, for a pressure of about 70 bar, just below the critical pressure of CO2, the error of the mass gauging in gas phase goes down to 0.1% and for 77 bar, just above the critical point, the error of the mass gauging of the liquid phase is 0.6% of initial tank load. This gauging method improves by a factor of 8 the accuracy of the standard PVT retrievals using look-up tables with tabulated data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Keywords: electric propulsion, mass gauging, propellant, PVT, xenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
12243 The LMPA/Epoxy Mixture Encapsulation of OLED on Polyimide Substrate

Authors: Chuyi Ye, Minsang Kim, Cheol-Hee Moon

Abstract:

The organic light emitting diode(OLED), is a potential organic optical functional materials which is considered as the next generation display technology with the advantages such as all-solid state, ultra-thin thickness, active luminous and flexibility. Due to the development of polymer-inorganic substrate, it becomes possible to achieve the flexible OLED display. However the organic light-emitting material is very sensitive to the oxygen and water vapor, and the encapsulation requires water vapor transmission rate(WVTR) and oxygen transmission rate(OTR) as lower as 10-6 g/(m2.d) and 10-5 cm3/(m2.d) respectively. In current situation, the rigorous WVTR and OTR have restricted the application of the OLED display. Traditional epoxy/getter or glass frit approaches, which have been widely applied on glass-substrate-based devices, are not suitable for transparent flexible organic devices, and mechanically flexible thin-film approaches are required. To ensure the OLED’s lifetime, the encapsulation material of the OLED package is very important. In this paper, a low melting point alloy(LMPA)-epoxy mixture in the encapsulation process is introduced. There will be a phase separation when the mixture is heated to the melting of LMPA and the formation of the double line structure between two substrates: the alloy barrier has extremely low WVTR and OTR and the epoxy fills the potential tiny cracks. In our experiment, the PI film is chosen as a flexible transparent substrate, and Mo and Cu are deposited on the PI film successively. Then the two metal layers are photolithographied to the sealing pattern line. The Mo is a transition layer between the PI film and Cu, at the same time, the Cu has a good wettability with the LMPA(Sn-58Bi). At last, pattern is printed with LMPA layer and applied voltage, the gathering Joule heat melt the LMPA and form the double line structure and the OLED package is sealed in the same time. In this research, the double-line encapsulating structure of LMPA and epoxy on the PI film is manufactured for the flexible OLED encapsulation, and in this process it is investigated whether the encapsulation satisfies the requirement of WVTR and OTR for the flexible OLED.

Keywords: encapsulation, flexible, low melting point alloy, OLED

Procedia PDF Downloads 603
12242 Corporate Social Responsibility and the Legal Framework of Foreign Direct Investment: Time for Conceptual Innovation

Authors: Agata Ferreira

Abstract:

Rapidly increasing debates and initiatives in the area of Corporate Social Responsibility (“CSR”) have reached the world of international investment law. CSR standards that focus on the operations of multinational companies are increasingly relevant in the context of international investment policy making. In the past, the connection between CSR standards and legal framework for foreign direct investment has been largely non-existent. Recently, however, there is a growing trend of a more balance approach to rights and obligations as between investors and states under investment treaties. CSR principles join other social and environmental measures slowly being included in the investment treaties to enhance their sustainable development dimension. Issues of CSR are present on negotiation tables of new mega regional investment treaties like TTIP for example. To date, only a very few bilateral investment treaties and a handful of other international treaties with investment provisions include CSR clauses. In addition, the existing provisions tend to be of a soft type, where parties merely acknowledge importance of good corporate governance and CSR for sustainable development or generally affirm their aim to encourage enterprises to observe internationally recognised guidelines and principles of CSR. The relevant provisions often leave it up to the states to encourage enterprises operating within their territories to voluntarily incorporate CSR principles. The interaction between general non-binding CSR standards, domestic laws and policies and provisions of international investment treaties have not been tested by investment tribunals yet. The role of investment treaties in raising awareness and promoting CSR is still in its infancy. The use of CSR standards in the international investment protection regime for promotion of CSR standards, and as a tool for disciplining investors into complying with such standards, pose a number of questions and is met with resistance from investors` lobbies. Integration of these two areas, CSR and international investment law, both consisting of multilayered, diverse and often overlapping instruments is by no means an easy task. Whether international investment world is ready to embrace CSR standards or shrug them off is a matter of uncertain future. The subject however has been raised, first introductions have been made and the time will show whether the relationship between legal framework of international investment and CSR will flourish or remain dormant.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, foreign direct investment, investment treaties, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 272
12241 Testing Immunochemical Method for the Bacteriological Diagnosis of Bovine Tuberculosis

Authors: Assiya Madenovna Borsynbayeva, Kairat Altynbekovich Turgenbayev, Nikolay Petrovich Ivanov

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In this article presents the results of rapid diagnostics of tuberculosis in comparison with classical bacteriological method. The proposed method of rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis than bacteriological method allows shortening the time of diagnosis to 7 days, to visualize the growth of mycobacteria in the semi-liquid medium and differentiate the type of mycobacterium. Fast definition of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and its derivatives in the culture medium is a new and promising direction in the diagnosis of tuberculosis.

Keywords: animal diagnosis of tuberculosis, bacteriological diagnostics, antigen, specific antibodies, immunological reaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 348
12240 Perception of Pre-Clinical Students towards Doctors Lifestyle

Authors: Shalinawati Ramli, Khairani Omar, Nurul Azmawati Mohamed, Zarini Ismail, Nur Syahrina Rahim, Nurul Hayati Chamhuri

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Medical doctors’ work to prevent, diagnose, treat diseases, disorders, and injuries as well as prescribing medication. Many people are attracted to this profession because it gives them the opportunity to help others. Doctors’ improve quality of life by providing advice, healing physical ailments and performing complex surgeries. Medicine is a profession in which dedication to the wellbeing of others is of paramount importance. Balancing the requirements of work and personal life can be a struggle as the demand of work as a doctors’ is great. Perception and expectation of medical students regarding the lifestyle of doctors’ is important to ensure that they had made the right career choice. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the perception of pre-clinical students regarding doctors’ lifestyle. This study is a cross-sectional study involving all third-year pre-clinical medical students at University Sains Islam Malaysia. A total of 81 students participated in this study. Participants were given a set of questionnaire consisting of demographic data, open-ended questions on their perception on doctors’ lifestyle of working environment, salary expectation and family life. Thematic analysis were used to analyse the data. The participants comprised 69% female and their age range was between 20-21 years old. Majority of them were from middle-income families. Majority of the students perceived that the doctors’ lifestyle would be busy (72%). Approximately 30% of them expected that the time schedule will be unpredictable, 21% mentioned that sacrifice is required and 16% perceived it as a tiring job. Other themes emerged were ‘requiring high commitment’ (6%), challenging (7%) and risky (4%). With regards to salary expectation, 48% expected reasonable salary, 33% high salary and 12% described it as 'not worth compared to the workload'. Majority of them perceived that their family life will be restricted (62%) and time management is important (33%). Only 15% mentioned that family members have to sacrifice and spousal understanding is important (7%). About 10% of them perceived that their family will not be affected by their profession. Majority of the medical students perceived a busy doctors’ lifestyle, reasonable salary and restricted family life. However, there was a significant proportion of them who required counselling for better preparation of their future lifestyle.

Keywords: doctors lifestyle, pre-clinical students, perception, understanding

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
12239 Effect of Interaction between Different Concentrations of Colchicine, Time Duration and Two Verities of Crepis capillaris on Chromosome Polyploidy in vitro Culture

Authors: Mosleh M. S. Duhoky, Payman A. A. Zibari

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These experiments were conducted at Tissue Culture Laboratory/ Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry/ University of Duhok during the period from January 2011 to May 2013. The objectives of this study were to study the effects of interaction between three different factors on percentage of polyploidy of Crepis capillaris by using Tissue culture technology. Concerning the data it is obvious that shaking of Crepis capillaris with 2B chromosome with 0.15 mM for ten days inscribed a high percentage of polyploidy within most fifteen passages.

Keywords: crepis capillaris, 2B chromosome, tissue culture, polyploidy

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
12238 Characterization of Alloyed Grey Cast Iron Quenched and Tempered for a Smooth Roll Application

Authors: Mohamed Habireche, Nacer E. Bacha, Mohamed Djeghdjough

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In the brick industry, smooth double roll crusher is used for medium and fine crushing of soft to medium hard material. Due to opposite inward rotation of the rolls, the feed material is nipped between the rolls and crushed by compression. They are subject to intense wear, known as three-body abrasion, due to the action of abrasive products. The production downtime affecting productivity stems from two sources: the bi-monthly rectification of the roll crushers and their replacement when they are completely worn out. Choosing the right material for the roll crushers should result in longer machine cycles, and reduced repair and maintenance costs. All roll crushers are imported from outside Algeria. This results in sometimes very long delivery times which handicap the brickyards, in particular in respecting delivery times and honored the orders made by customers. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of alloying additions on microstructure and wear behavior of grey lamellar cast iron for smooth roll crushers in brick industry. The base gray iron was melted in an induction furnace with low frequency at a temperature of 1500 °C, in which return cast iron scrap, new cast iron ingot, and steel scrap were added to the melt to generate the desired composition. The chemical analysis of the bar samples was carried out using Emission Spectrometer Systems PV 8050 Series (Philips) except for the carbon, for which a carbon/sulphur analyser Elementrac CS-i was used. Unetched microstructure was used to evaluate the graphite flake morphology using the image comparison measurement method. At least five different fields were selected for quantitative estimation of phase constituents. The samples were observed under X100 magnification with a Zeiss Axiover T40 MAT optical microscope equipped with a digital camera. SEM microscope equipped with EDS was used to characterize the phases present in the microstructure. The hardness (750 kg load, 5mm diameter ball) was measured with a Brinell testing machine for both treated and as-solidified condition test pieces. The test bars were used for tensile strength and metallographic evaluations. Mechanical properties were evaluated using tensile specimens made as per ASTM E8 standards. Two specimens were tested for each alloy. From each rod, a test piece was made for the tensile test. The results showed that the quenched and tempered alloys had best wear resistance at 400 °C for alloyed grey cast iron (containing 0.62%Mn, 0.68%Cr, and 1.09% Cu) due to fine carbides in the tempered matrix. In quenched and tempered condition, increasing Cu content in cast irons improved its wear resistance moderately. Combined addition of Cu and Cr increases hardness and wear resistance for a quenched and tempered hypoeutectic grey cast iron.

Keywords: casting, cast iron, microstructure, heat treating

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
12237 Simulation: A Tool for Stabilization of Welding Processes in Lean Production Concepts

Authors: Ola Jon Mork, Lars Andre Giske, Emil Bjørlykhaug

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Stabilization of critical processes in order to have the right quality of the products, more efficient production and smoother flow is a key issue in lean production. This paper presents how simulation of key welding processes can stabilize complicated welding processes in small scale production, and how simulation can impact the entire production concept seen from the perspective of lean production. First, a field study was made to learn the production processes in the factory, and subsequently the field study was transformed into a value stream map to get insight into each operation, the quality issues, operation times, lead times and flow of materials. Valuable practical knowledge of how the welding operations were done by operators, appropriate tools and jigs, and type of robots that could be used, was collected. All available information was then implemented into a simulation environment for further elaboration and development. Three researchers, the management of the company and skilled operators at the work floor where working on the project over a period of eight months, and a detailed description of the process was made by the researchers. The simulation showed that simulation could solve a number of technical challenges, the robot program can be tuned in off line mode, and the design and testing of the robot cell could be made in the simulator. Further on the design of the product could be optimized for robot welding and the jigs could be designed and tested in simulation environment. This means that a key issue of lean production can be solved; the welding operation will work with almost 100% performance when it is put into real production. Stabilizing of one key process is critical to gain control of the entire value chain, then a Takt Time can be established and the focus can be directed towards the next process in the production which should be stabilized. Results show that industrial parameters like welding time, welding cost and welding quality can be defined on the simulation stage. Further on, this gives valuable information for calculation of the factories business performance, like manufacturing volume and manufacturing efficiency. Industrial impact from simulation is more efficient implementation of lean manufacturing, since the welding process can be stabilized. More research should be done to gain more knowledge about simulation as a tool for implementation of lean, especially where there complex processes.

Keywords: simulation, lean, stabilization, welding process

Procedia PDF Downloads 322
12236 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 133