Search results for: molecular dynamics simulation.

Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

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Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

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Authors: Luis Amador Jimenez, Md. Shohel Amin

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Pavement performance models are based on projections of observed traffic loads, which makes uncertain to study funding strategies in the long run if history does not repeat. Neural networks can be used to estimate deterioration rates but the learning rate and momentum have not been properly investigated, in addition, economic evolvement could change traffic flows. This study addresses both issues through a case study for roads of Montreal that simulates traffic for a period of 50 years and deals with the measurement error of the pavement deterioration model. Travel demand models are applied to simulate annual average daily traffic (AADT) every 5 years. Accumulated equivalent single axle loads (ESALs) are calculated from the predicted AADT and locally observed truck distributions combined with truck factors. A back propagation Neural Network (BPN) method with a Generalized Delta Rule (GDR) learning algorithm is applied to estimate pavement deterioration models capable of overcoming measurement errors. Linear programming of lifecycle optimization is applied to identify M&R strategies that ensure good pavement condition while minimizing the budget. It was found that CAD 150 million is the minimum annual budget to good condition for arterial and local roads in Montreal. Montreal drivers prefer the use of public transportation for work and education purposes. Vehicle traffic is expected to double within 50 years, ESALS are expected to double the number of ESALs every 15 years. Roads in the island of Montreal need to undergo a stabilization period for about 25 years, a steady state seems to be reached after.

Keywords: pavement management system, traffic simulation, backpropagation neural network, performance modeling, measurement errors, linear programming, lifecycle optimization

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Authors: Mariia A. Parfenenko, Ilya S. Dantsev, Sergei V. Bochenkov, Natalia V. Vinogradova, Olga S. Groznova, Victoria Yu. Voinova

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Introduction: Autism is the most common neurodevelopmental disorder. Autism is characterized by difficulties in social interaction and adherence to stereotypic behavioral patterns and frequently co-occurs with epilepsy, intellectual disabilities, connective tissue disorders, and other conditions. CHD8 codes for chromodomain-helicase-DNA-binding protein 8 - a chromatin remodeler that regulates cellular proliferation and neurodevelopment in embryogenesis. CHD8 is one of the genes most frequently involved in autism. Patients and methods: 2 unrelated male patients, P3 and P12, aged 3 and 12 years old, underwent whole genome sequencing, which determined that they both had different likely pathogenic variants, both previously undescribed in literature. Sanger sequencing later determined that P12 inherited the variant from his affected mother. Results: P3 and P12 presented with autism, a developmental delay, ataxia, sleep disorders, overgrowth, and macrocephaly, as well as other clinical features typically present in patients with causative variants in CHD8. The mother of P12 also has autistic traits, as well as ataxia, hypotonia, sleep disorders, and other symptoms. However, P3 and P12 also have different cardiac abnormalities. P3 had signs of a repolarization disorder: a flattened T wave in the III and aVF derivations and a negative T wave in the V1-V2 derivations. He also had structural valve anomalies with associated regurgitation, local contractility impairment of the left ventricular, and diastolic dysfunction of the right ventricle. Meanwhile, P12 had Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome and underwent radiofrequency ablation at the age of 2 years. At the time of observation, P12 had mild sinus arrhythmia and an incomplete right bundle branch block, as well as arterial hypertension. Discussion: Cardiac abnormalities were not previously reported in patients with causative variants in CHD8. The underlying mechanism for the formation of those abnormalities is currently unknown. However, the two hypotheses are either a disordered interaction with CHD7 – another chromodomain remodeler known to be directly involved in the cardiophenotype of CHARGE syndrome – a rare condition characterized by coloboma, heart defects and growth abnormalities, or the disrupted functioning of CHD8 as an A-Kinase Anchoring Protein, which are known to modulate cardiac function. Conclusion: We observed 2 unrelated autistic males with likely pathogenic variants in CHD8 that presented with typical symptoms of CHD8-related neurodevelopmental disorder, as well as cardiac abnormalities. Cardiac abnormalities have, until now, been considered uncharacteristic for patients with causative variants in CHD8. Further accumulation of data, including experimental evidence of the involvement of CHD8 in heart formation, will elucidate the mechanism underlying the cardiophenotype of those patients. Acknowledgements: Molecular genetic testing of the patients was made possible by the Charity Fund for medical and social genetic aid projects «Life Genome.»

Keywords: autism spectrum disorders, chromodomain-helicase-DNA-binding protein 8, neurodevelopmental disorder, cardio phenotype

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Authors: Natasha Botha, Gary Corderely, Helen M. Inglis

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With the move to cleaner energy applications the transport industry is working towards on-board hydrogen, or compressed natural gas-fuelled vehicles. A popular method for storage is to use composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV) because of their high strength to weight ratios. The proper design of these COPVs are according to international standards; this study aims to provide a preliminary design for a 350 Bar Type IV COPV (i.e. a polymer liner with a composite overwrap). Netting analysis, a popular analytical approach, is used as a first step to generate an initial design concept for the composite winding. This design is further improved upon by following the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel standards, Section X: Fibre-reinforced composite pressure vessels. A design program based on these two approaches is developed using Python. A numerical model of a burst test simulation is developed based on the two approaches and compared. The results indicate that the netting analysis provides a good preliminary design, while the ASME-based design is more robust and accurate as it includes a better approximation of the material behaviour. Netting analysis is an easy method to follow when considering an initial concept design for the composite winding when not all the material characteristics are known. Once these characteristics have been fully defined with experimental testing, an ASME-based design should always be followed to ensure that all designs conform to international standards and practices. Future work entails more detailed numerical testing of the design for improvement, this will include the boss design. Once finalised prototype manufacturing and experimental testing will be conducted, and the results used to improve on the COPV design.

Keywords: composite overwrapped pressure vessel, netting analysis, design, American Society of Mechanical Engineers section x, fiber-reinforced, hydrogen storage

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Authors: Joao Victor Borges Dos Santos, Thomas Richard, Yevhen Kovalyshen

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Down-the-hole (DTH) percussive drilling is an excavation method that is widely used in the mining industry due to its high efficiency in fragmenting hard rock formations. A DTH hammer system consists of a fluid driven (air or water) piston and a drill bit; the reciprocating movement of the piston transmits its kinetic energy to the drill bit by means of stress waves that propagate through the drill bit towards the rock formation. In the literature of percussive drilling, the existence of an optimum drilling state (Sweet Spot) is reported in some laboratory and field experimental studies. An optimum rate of penetration is achieved for a specific range of axial thrust (or weight-on-bit) beyond which the rate of penetration decreases. Several authors advance different explanations as possible root causes to the occurrence of the Sweet Spot, but a universal explanation or consensus does not exist yet. The experimental investigation in this work was initiated with drilling experiments conducted at a mining site. A full-scale drilling rig (equipped with a DTH hammer system) was instrumented with high precision sensors sampled at a very high sampling rate (kHz). Data was collected while two boreholes were being excavated, an in depth analysis of the recorded data confirmed that an optimum performance can be achieved for specific ranges of input thrust (weight-on-bit). The high sampling rate allowed to identify the bit penetration at each single impact (of the piston on the drill bit) as well as the impact frequency. These measurements provide a direct method to identify when the hammer does not fire, and drilling occurs without percussion, and the bit propagate the borehole by shearing the rock. The second stage of the experimental investigation was conducted in a laboratory environment with a custom-built equipment dubbed Woody. Woody allows the drilling of shallow holes few centimetres deep by successive discrete impacts from a piston. After each individual impact, the bit angular position is incremented by a fixed amount, the piston is moved back to its initial position at the top of the barrel, and the air pressure and thrust are set back to their pre-set values. The goal is to explore whether the observed optimum drilling state stems from the interaction between the drill bit and the rock (during impact) or governed by the overall system dynamics (between impacts). The experiments were conducted on samples of Calca Red, with a drill bit of 74 millimetres (outside diameter) and with weight-on-bit ranging from 0.3 kN to 3.7 kN. Results show that under the same piston impact energy and constant angular displacement of 15 degrees between impact, the average drill bit rate of penetration is independent of the weight-on-bit, which suggests that the sweet spot is not caused by intrinsic properties of the bit-rock interface.

Keywords: optimum drilling state, experimental investigation, field experiments, laboratory experiments, down-the-hole percussive drilling

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Authors: Alida Sandison, Louise A. Stroud

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Narcissism is a personality configuration which has both normal and pathological personality expressions. Narcissism is highly complex, and is linked to a broad field of research. There are both dimensional and categorical conceptualisations of narcissism, and a variety of theoretical formulations that have been put forward to understand the narcissistic personality configuration. Currently, Kernberg’s Object Relations theory is well supported for this purpose. The complexity and particular defense mechanisms at play in the narcissistic personality make it a difficult personality configuration worth further research. Psychobiography as a methodology allows for the exploration of the lived life, and is thus a useful methodology to surmount these inherent challenges. Narcissism has been a focus of academic interest for a long time, and although there is a lot of research done in this area, to the researchers' knowledge, narcissistic dynamics have never been explored within a psychobiographical format. Thus, the primary aim of the research was to explore and describe narcissism in the life of Howard Hughes, with the objective of gaining further insight into narcissism through the use of this unconventional research approach. Hughes was chosen as subject for the study as he is renowned as an eccentric billionaire who had his revolutionary effect on the world, but was concurrently disturbed within his personal pathologies. Hughes was dynamic in three different sectors, namely motion pictures, aviation and gambling. He became more and more reclusive as he entered into middle age. From his early fifties he was agoraphobic, and the social network of connectivity that could reasonably be expected from someone in the top of their field was notably distorted. Due to his strong narcissistic personality configuration, and the interpersonal difficulties he experienced, Hughes represents an ideal figure to explore narcissism. The study used a single case study design, and purposive sampling to select Hughes. Qualitative data was sampled, using secondary data sources. Given that Hughes was a famous figure, there is a plethora of information on his life, which is primarily autobiographical. This includes books written about his life, and archival material in the form of newspaper articles, interviews and movies. Gathered data were triangulated to avoid the effect of author bias, and increase the credibility of the data used. It was collected using Yin’s guidelines for data collection. Data was analysed using Miles and Huberman strategy of data analysis, which consists of three steps, namely, data reduction, data display, and conclusion drawing and verification. Patterns which emerged in the data highlighted the defense mechanisms used by Hughes, in particular that of splitting and projection, in defending his sense of self. These defense mechanisms help us to understand the high levels of entitlement and paranoia experienced by Hughes. Findings provide further insight into his sense of isolation and difference, and the consequent difficulty he experienced in maintaining connections with others. Findings furthermore confirm the effectiveness of Kernberg’s theory in understanding narcissism observing an individual life.

Keywords: Howard Hughes, narcissism, narcissistic defenses, object relations

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Authors: António Inês, Ana Guimarães, José Maria, Vânia Laranjo, Armando Venâncio, Luís Abrunhosa

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Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) play a key role in the biopreservation of a wide range of fermented food products, such as yogurt, cheese, fermented milks, meat, fish, vegetables (sauerkraut, olives and pickles), certain beer brands, wines and silage, allowing their safe consumption, which gave to these bacteria a GRAS (Generally Recognised as Safe) status. Besides that, the use of LAB in food and feed is a promising strategy to reduce the exposure to dietary mycotoxins, improving their shelf life and reducing health risks, given the unique mycotoxin decontaminating characteristic of some LAB. Mycotoxins present carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratogenic, neurotoxic and immunosuppressive effects over animals and Humans, being the most important ochratoxin A (OTA), aflatoxins (AFB1), trichothecenes, zearalenone (ZEA), fumonisin (FUM) and patulin. In a previous work of our group it was observed OTA biodegradation by some strains of Pediococcus parvulus isolated from Douro wines. So, the aim of this study was to enlarge the screening of the biodetoxification over more mycotoxins besides OTA, including AFB1, and ZEA. This ability was checked in a collection of LAB isolated from vegetable (wine, olives, fruits and silage) and animal (milk and dairy products, sausages) sources. All LAB strains were characterized phenotypically (Gram, catalase) and genotypically. Molecular characterisation of all LAB strains was performed using genomic fingerprinting by MSP-PCR with (GTG)5 and csM13 primers. The identification of the isolates was confirmed by 16S rDNA sequencing. To study the ability of LAB strains to degrade OTA, AFB1 and ZEA, a MRS broth medium was supplemented with 2.0 μg/mL of each mycotoxin. For each strain, 2 mL of MRS supplemented with the mycotoxins was inoculated in triplicate with 109 CFU/mL. The culture media and bacterial cells were extracted by the addition of an equal volume of acetonitrile/methanol/acetic acid (78:20:2 v/v/v) to the culture tubes. A 2 mL sample was then collected and filtered into a clean 2 mL vial using PP filters with 0.45 μm pores. The samples were preserved at 4 °C until HPLC analysis. Among LAB tested, 10 strains isolated from milk were able to eliminate AFB1, belonging to Lactobacillus casei (7), Lb. paracasei (1), Lb. plantarum (1) and 1 to Leuconostoc mesenteroides. Two strains of Enterococcus faecium and one of Ec. faecalis from sausage eliminated ZEA. Concerning to strains of vegetal origin, one Lb. plantarum isolated from elderberry fruit, one Lb. buchnerii and one Lb. parafarraginis both isolated from silage eliminated ZEA. Other 2 strains of Lb. plantarum from silage were able to degrade both ZEA and OTA, and 1 Lb. buchnerii showed activity over AFB1. These enzymatic activities were also verified genotypically through specific gene PCR and posteriorly confirmed by sequencing analysis. In conclusion, due the ability of some strains of LAB isolated from different sources to eliminate OTA, AFB1 and ZEA one can recognize their potential biotechnological application to reduce the health hazards associated with these mycotoxins. They may be suitable as silage inoculants or as feed additives or even in food industry.

Keywords: bio-detoxification, lactic acid bacteria, mycotoxins, food and feed

Procedia PDF Downloads 571

Authors: Sudip Subedi, Nipesh Pradhananga

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The musculoskeletal disorders, also known as MSDs, are common in construction workers. MSDs include lower back injuries, knee injuries, spinal injuries, and joint injuries, among others. Since most construction tasks are still manual, construction workers often need to perform repetitive, labor-intensive tasks. And they need to stay in the same or an awkward posture for an extended time while performing such tasks. It induces significant stress to the joints and spines, increasing the risk of getting into MSDs. Manual monitoring of such tasks is virtually impossible with the handful of safety managers in a construction site. This paper proposes a methodology for performing kinetic analysis of the working postures while performing such tasks in real-time. Skeletal of different workers will be tracked using a depth-sensing camera while performing the task to create training data for identifying the best posture. For this, the kinetic analysis will be performed using a human musculoskeletal model in an open-source software system (OpenSim) to visualize the stress induced by essential joints. The “safe posture” inducing lowest stress on essential joints will be computed for different actions involved in the task. The identified “safe posture” will serve as a basis for real-time monitoring and identification of awkward and unsafe postural behaviors of construction workers. Besides, the temporal simulation will be carried out to find the associated long-term effect of repetitive exposure to such observed postures. This will help to create awareness in workers about potential future health hazards and encourage them to work safely. Furthermore, the collected individual data can then be used to provide need-based personalized training to the construction workers.

Keywords: construction workers’ safety, depth sensing camera, human body kinetics, musculoskeletal disorders, real time monitoring, repetitive labor-intensive tasks

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Julia Zimmerman, Gaurav Savant

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This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers’ River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) application to modeling the hydraulics of estuaries. HEC-RAS has been broadly used for a variety of riverine applications. However, it has not been widely applied to the study of circulation in estuaries. This report details the model development and validation of a combined 1D/2D unsteady flow hydraulic model using HEC-RAS for estuaries and they are associated with tidally influenced rivers. Two estuaries, Galveston Bay and Delaware Bay, were used as case studies. Galveston Bay, a bar-built, vertically mixed estuary, was modeled for the 2005 calendar year. Delaware Bay, a drowned river valley estuary, was modeled from October 22, 2019, to November 5, 2019. Water surface elevation was used to validate both models by comparing simulation results to NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) gauge data. Simulations were run using the Diffusion Wave Equations (DW), the Shallow Water Equations, Eulerian-Lagrangian Method (SWE-ELM), and the Shallow Water Equations Eulerian Method (SWE-EM) and compared for both accuracy and computational resources required. In general, the Diffusion Wave Equations results were found to be comparable to the two Shallow Water equations sets while requiring less computational power. The 1D/2D combined approach was valid for study areas within the 2D flow area, with the 1D flow serving mainly as an inflow boundary condition. Within the Delaware Bay estuary, the HEC-RAS DW model ran in 22 minutes and had an average R² value of 0.94 within the 2-D mesh. The Galveston Bay HEC-RAS DW ran in 6 hours and 47 minutes and had an average R² value of 0.83 within the 2-D mesh. The longer run time and lower R² for Galveston Bay can be attributed to the increased length of the time frame modeled and the greater complexity of the estuarine system. The models did not accurately capture tidal effects within the 1D flow area.

Keywords: Delaware bay, estuarine hydraulics, Galveston bay, HEC-RAS, one-dimensional modeling, two-dimensional modeling

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Authors: Marius Sebastian Secula, Andreea Vajda, Benoit Cagnon, Ioan Mamaliga

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One of the most important classes of pollutants is represented by dyes. The synthetic character and complex molecular structure make them more stable and difficult to be biodegraded in water. The treatment of wastewaters containing dyes in order to separate/degrade dyes is of major importance. Various techniques have been employed to remove and/or degrade dyes in water. Advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) are known as among the most efficient ones towards dye degradation. The aim of this work is to investigate the efficiency of a cheap Iron-impregnated activated carbon Fenton-like catalyst in order to degrade organic compounds in aqueous solutions. In the presented study an anionic dye, Indigo Carmine, is considered as a model pollutant. Various AOPs are evaluated for the degradation of Indigo Carmine to establish the effect of the prepared catalyst. It was found that the Iron(II)-embedded activated carbon composite enhances significantly the degradation process of Indigo Carmine. Using the wet impregnation procedure, 5 g of L27 AC material were contacted with Fe(II) solutions of FeSO4 precursor at a theoretical iron content in the resulted composite of 1 %. The L27 AC was impregnated for 3h at 45°C, then filtered, washed several times with water and ethanol and dried at 55 °C for 24 h. Thermogravimetric analysis, Fourier transform infrared, X-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy were employed to investigate the structural, textural, and micromorphology of the catalyst. Total iron content in the obtained composites and iron leakage were determined by spectrophotometric method using phenantroline. Photo-catalytic tests were performed using an UV - Consulting Peschl Laboratory Reactor System. UV light irradiation tests were carried out to determine the performance of the prepared Iron-impregnated composite towards the degradation of Indigo Carmine in aqueous solution using different conditions (17 W UV lamps, with and without in-situ generation of O3; different concentrations of H2O2, different initial concentrations of Indigo Carmine, different values of pH, different doses of NH4-OH enhancer). The photocatalytic tests were performed after the adsorption equilibrium has been established. The obtained results emphasize an enhancement of Indigo Carmine degradation in case of the heterogeneous photo-Fenton process conducted with an O3 generating UV lamp in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. The investigated process obeys the pseudo-first order kinetics. The photo-Fenton degradation of IC was tested at different values of initial concentration. The obtained results emphasize an enhancement of Indigo Carmine degradation in case of the heterogeneous photo-Fenton process conducted with an O3 generating UV lamp in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-RU-TE-2014-4-0405.

Keywords: photodegradation, heterogeneous Fenton, anionic dye, carbonaceous composite, screening factorial design

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Authors: Matteo Gentilucci, Marco Materazzi, Gilberto Pambianchi

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Climate change is an increasingly central issue in the world, because it affects many of human activities. In this context regional studies are of great importance because they sometimes differ from the general trend. This research focuses on a small area of central Italy which overlooks the Adriatic Sea, the province of Macerata. The aim is to analyze space-based climate changes, for precipitation and temperatures, in the last 3 climatological standard normals (1961-1990; 1971-2000; 1981-2010) through GIS software. The data collected from 30 weather stations for temperature and 61 rain gauges for precipitation were subject to quality controls: validation and homogenization. These data were fundamental for the spatialization of the variables (temperature and precipitation) through geostatistical techniques. To assess the best geostatistical technique for interpolation, the results of cross correlation were used. The co-kriging method with altitude as independent variable produced the best cross validation results for all time periods, among the methods analysed, with 'root mean square error standardized' close to 1, 'mean standardized error' close to 0, 'average standard error' and 'root mean square error' with similar values. The maps resulting from the analysis were compared by subtraction between rasters, producing 3 maps of annual variation and three other maps for each month of the year (1961/1990-1971/2000; 1971/2000-1981/2010; 1961/1990-1981/2010). The results show an increase in average annual temperature of about 0.1°C between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 and 0.6 °C between 1961-1990 and 1981-2010. Instead annual precipitation shows an opposite trend, with an average difference from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 of about 35 mm and from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 of about 60 mm. Furthermore, the differences in the areas have been highlighted with area graphs and summarized in several tables as descriptive analysis. In fact for temperature between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 the most areally represented frequency is 0.08°C (77.04 Km² on a total of about 2800 km²) with a kurtosis of 3.95 and a skewness of 2.19. Instead, the differences for temperatures from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 show a most areally represented frequency of 0.83 °C, with -0.45 as kurtosis and 0.92 as skewness (36.9 km²). Therefore it can be said that distribution is more pointed for 1961/1990-1971/2000 and smoother but more intense in the growth for 1961/1990-1981/2010. In contrast, precipitation shows a very similar shape of distribution, although with different intensities, for both variations periods (first period 1961/1990-1971/2000 and second one 1961/1990-1981/2010) with similar values of kurtosis (1st = 1.93; 2nd = 1.34), skewness (1st = 1.81; 2nd = 1.62 for the second) and area of the most represented frequency (1st = 60.72 km²; 2nd = 52.80 km²). In conclusion, this methodology of analysis allows the assessment of small scale climate change for each month of the year and could be further investigated in relation to regional atmospheric dynamics.

Keywords: climate change, GIS, interpolation, co-kriging

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Authors: P. Caimmi, E. Bele, A. Abolfathi

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Lattice materials are cellular structures composed of a periodic network of beams. They offer high weight-specific mechanical properties and lend themselves to numerous weight-sensitive applications. The periodic internal structure responds to external vibrations through characteristic frequency bandgaps, making these materials suitable for the reduction of noise and vibration. However, the deviation from architectural homogeneity, due to, e.g., manufacturing imperfections, has a strong influence on the mechanical properties and vibration response of these materials. In this work, we present results on the influence of geometric imperfections on the vibration response of hexagonal lattices. Three classes of geometrical variables are used: the characteristics of the architecture (relative density, ligament length/cell size ratio), imperfection type (degree of non-periodicity, cracks, hard inclusions) and defect morphology (size, distribution). Test specimens with controlled size and distribution of imperfections are manufactured through selective laser sintering. The Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) in the form of accelerance are measured, and the modal shapes are captured through a high-speed camera. The finite element method is used to provide insights on the extension of these results to semi-infinite lattices. An updating procedure is conducted to increase the reliability of numerical simulation results compared to experimental measurements. This is achieved by updating the boundary conditions and material stiffness. Variations in FRFs of periodic structures due to changes in the relative density of the constituent unit cell are analysed. The effects of geometric imperfections on the dynamic response of periodic structures are investigated. The findings can be used to open up the opportunity for tailoring these lattice materials to achieve optimal amplitude attenuations at specific frequency ranges.

Keywords: lattice architectures, geometric imperfections, vibration attenuation, experimental modal analysis

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Authors: Waldir Roque, Gustavo Oliveira, Moises Santos, Tatiana Simoes

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Increasing the oil recovery factor of an oil reservoir has been a concern of the oil industry. Usually, the production placement zones are defined after some analysis of geological and petrophysical parameters, being the rock porosity, permeability and oil saturation of fundamental importance. In this context, the determination of hydraulic flow units (HFUs) renders an important step in the process of reservoir characterization since it may provide specific regions in the reservoir with similar petrophysical and fluid flow properties and, in particular, techniques supporting the placement of production zones that favour the tracing of directional wells. A HFU is defined as a representative volume of a total reservoir rock in which petrophysical and fluid flow properties are internally consistent and predictably distinct of other reservoir rocks. Technically, a HFU is characterized as a rock region that exhibit flow zone indicator (FZI) points lying on a straight line of the unit slope. The goal of this paper is to provide a trustful indication for oil production placement zones for the best-fit HFUs. The FZI cloud of points can be obtained from the reservoir quality index (RQI), a function of effective porosity and permeability. Considering log and core data the HFUs are identified and using the discrete rock type (DRT) classification, a set of connected cell clusters can be found and by means a graph centrality metric, the maximum closeness (MaxC) cell is obtained for each cluster. Considering the MaxC cells as production zones, an extensive analysis, based on several oil recovery factor and oil cumulative production simulations were done for the SPE Model 2 and the UNISIM-I-D synthetic fields, where the later was build up from public data available from the actual Namorado Field, Campos Basin, in Brazil. The results have shown that the MaxC is actually technically feasible and very reliable as high performance production placement zones.

Keywords: hydraulic flow unit, maximum closeness centrality, oil production simulation, production placement zone

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Authors: Fengqing Li, Petra Schneider

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Failure of tailings management facilities (TMF) of radioactive residues is an enormous challenge worldwide and can result in major catastrophes. Particularly in transboundary regions, such failure is most likely to lead to international conflict. This risk occurs in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where the current major challenge is the quantification of impacts due to pollution from uranium legacy sites and especially the impact on river basins after natural hazards (i.e., landslides). By means of GoldSim, a probabilistic simulation model, the amount of tailing material that flows into the river networks of Mailuu Suu in Kyrgyzstan after pond failure was simulated for three scenarios, namely 10%, 20%, and 30% of material inputs. Based on Muskingum-Cunge flood routing procedure, the peak value of uranium flood wave along the river network was simulated. Among the 23 TMF, 19 ponds are close to the river networks. The spatiotemporal distributions of uranium along the river networks were then simulated for all the 19 ponds under three scenarios. Taking the TP7 which is 30 km far from the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan border as one example, the uranium concentration decreased continuously along the longitudinal gradient of the river network, the concentration of uranium was observed at the border after 45 min of the pond failure and the highest value was detected after 69 min. The highest concentration of uranium at the border were 16.5, 33, and 47.5 mg/L under scenarios of 10%, 20%, and 30% of material inputs, respectively. In comparison to the guideline value of uranium in drinking water (i.e., 30 µg/L) provided by the World Health Organization, the observed concentrations of uranium at the border were 550‒1583 times higher. In order to mitigate the transboundary impact of a radioactive pollutant release, an integrated framework consisting of three major strategies were proposed. Among, the short-term strategy can be used in case of emergency event, the medium-term strategy allows both countries handling the TMF efficiently based on the benefit-sharing concept, and the long-term strategy intends to rehabilitate the site through the relocation of all TMF.

Keywords: Central Asia, contaminant transport modelling, radioactive residue, transboundary conflict

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Authors: Pirta Palola, Richard Bailey, Lisa Wedding

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Societies and economies worldwide fundamentally depend on natural capital. Alarmingly, natural capital assets are quickly depreciating, posing an existential challenge for humanity. The development of robust natural capital accounting systems is essential for transitioning towards sustainable economic systems and ensuring sound management of capital assets. However, the accurate, equitable and comprehensive estimation of natural capital asset stocks and their accounting values still faces multiple challenges. In particular, the representation of socio-cultural values held by groups or communities has arguably been limited, as to date, the valuation of natural capital assets has primarily been based on monetary valuation methods and assumptions of individual rationality. People relate to and value the natural environment in multiple ways, and no single valuation method can provide a sufficiently comprehensive image of the range of values associated with the environment. Indeed, calls have been made to improve the representation of multiple types of value (instrumental, intrinsic, and relational) and diverse ontological and epistemological perspectives in environmental valuation. This study addresses this need by establishing a novel valuation framework, Environmental Value Functions (EVF), that allows for the integration of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems. The EVF framework is based on the estimation and application of value functions, each of which describes the relationship between the value and quantity (or quality) of an ecosystem component of interest. In this framework, values are estimated in terms of change relative to the current level instead of calculating absolute values. Furthermore, EVF was developed to also support non-marginalist conceptualizations of value: it is likely that some environmental values cannot be conceptualized in terms of marginal changes. For example, ecological resilience value may, in some cases, be best understood as a binary: it either exists (1) or is lost (0). In such cases, a logistic value function may be used as the discriminator. Uncertainty in the value function parameterization can be considered through, for example, Monte Carlo sampling analysis. The use of EVF is illustrated with two conceptual examples. For the first time, EVF offers a clear framework and concrete methodology for the representation of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems, simultaneously enabling 1) the complementary use and integration of multiple valuation methods (monetary and non-monetary); 2) the synthesis of information from diverse knowledge systems; 3) the recognition of value incommensurability; 4) marginalist and non-marginalist value analysis. Furthermore, with this advancement, the coupling of EVF and ecosystem modeling can offer novel insights to the study of spatial-temporal dynamics in natural capital asset values. For example, value time series can be produced, allowing for the prediction and analysis of volatility, long-term trends, and temporal trade-offs. This approach can provide essential information to help guide the transition to a sustainable economy.

Keywords: economics of biodiversity, environmental valuation, natural capital, value function

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Authors: Gachara Grace, Kebira Anthony, Harvey Jagger, Wainaina James

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Aflatoxin contamination of maize in Africa poses a major threat to food security and the health of many African people. In Kenya, aflatoxin contamination of maize is high due to the environmental, agricultural and socio-economic factors. Many studies have been conducted to understand the scope of the problem, especially at pre-harvest level. This research was carried out to gather scientific information on the fungi population, diversity and aflatoxin level during the post-harvest period. The study was conducted in three geographical locations of; Kitui, Kitale and Nakuru. Samples were collected from storage structures of farmers and transported to the Biosciences eastern and central Africa (BecA), International Livestock and Research Institute (ILRI) hub laboratories. Mycoflora was recovered using the direct plating method. A total of five fungal genera (Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium, Rhizopus and Bssyochlamys spp.) were isolated from the stored maize samples. The most common fungal species that were isolated from the three study sites included A. flavus at 82.03% followed by A.niger and F.solani at 49% and 26% respectively. The aflatoxin producing fungi A. flavus was recovered in 82.03% of the samples. Aflatoxin levels were analysed on both the maize samples and in vitro. Most of the A. flavus isolates recorded a high level of aflatoxin when they were analysed for presence of aflatoxin B1 using ELISA. In Kitui, all the samples (100%) had aflatoxin levels above 10ppb with a total aflatoxin mean of 219.2ppb. In Kitale, only 3 samples (n=39) had their aflatoxin levels less than 10ppb while in Nakuru, the total aflatoxin mean level of this region was 239.7ppb. When individual samples were analysed using Vicam fluorometer method, aflatoxin analysis revealed that most of the samples (58.4%) had been contaminated. The means were significantly different (p=0.00<0.05) in all the three locations. Genetic relationships of A. flavus isolates were determined using 13 Simple Sequence Repeats (SSRs) markers. The results were used to generate a phylogenetic tree using DARwin5 software program. A total of 5 distinct clusters were revealed among the genotypes. The isolates appeared to cluster separately according to the geographical locations. Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) of the genetic distances among the 91 A. flavus isolates explained over 50.3% of the total variation when two coordinates were used to cluster the isolates. Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) showed a high variation of 87% within populations and 13% among populations. This research has shown that A. flavus is the main fungal species infecting maize grains in Kenya. The influence of aflatoxins on human populations in Kenya demonstrates a clear need for tools to manage contamination of locally produced maize. Food basket surveys for aflatoxin contamination should be conducted on a regular basis. This would assist in obtaining reliable data on aflatoxin incidence in different food crops. This would go a long way in defining control strategies for this menace.

Keywords: aflatoxin, Aspergillus flavus, genotyping, Kenya

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Authors: Ling Liyun

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In the field of contemporary architecture, complex forms of architectural works continue to emerge in the world, along with some new terminology emerged: digital architecture, parametric design, algorithm generation, building information modeling, CNC construction and so on. Architects gradually mastered the new skills of mathematical logic in the form of exploration, virtual simulation, and the entire design and coordination in the construction process. Digital construction technology has a greater degree in controlling construction, and ensure its accuracy, creating a series of new construction techniques. As a result, the use of digital technology is an improvement and expansion of the practice of digital architecture design revolution. We worked by reading and analyzing information about the digital architecture development process, a large number of cases, as well as architectural design and construction as a whole process. Thus current developments were introduced and discussed in our paper, such as architectural discourse, design theory, digital design models and techniques, material selecting, as well as artificial intelligence space design. Our paper also pays attention to the representative three cases of digital design and construction experiment at great length in detail to expound high-informatization, high-reliability intelligence, and high-technique in constructing a humane space to cope with the rapid development of urbanization. We concluded that the opportunities and challenges of the shift existed in architectural paradigms, such as the cooperation methods, theories, models, technologies and techniques which were currently employed in digital design research and digital praxis. We also find out that the innovative use of space can gradually change the way people learn, talk, and control information. The past two decades, digital technology radically breaks the technology constraints of industrial technical products, digests the publicity on a particular architectural style (era doctrine). People should not adapt to the machine, but in turn, it’s better to make the machine work for users.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, collaboration, digital architecture, digital design theory, material selection, space construction

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Authors: Teklay Tesfay, Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn, Abadi Berhane, Selemawit Girmay

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Adjusting the proper sowing date of a crop at a particular location with a changing climate is an essential management option to maximize crop yield. However, determining the optimum sowing date for rainfed maize production through field experimentation requires repeated trials for many years in different weather conditions and crop management. To avoid such long-term experimentation to determine the optimum sowing date, crop models such as AquaCrop are useful. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of AquaCrop model in simulating maize productivity under varying sowing dates. A field experiment was conducted for two consecutive cropping seasons by deploying four maize seed sowing dates in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Input data required to run this model are stored as climate, crop, soil, and management files in the AquaCrop database and adjusted through the user interface. Observed data from separate field experiments was used to calibrate and validate the model. AquaCrop model was validated for its performance in simulating the green canopy and aboveground biomass of maize for the varying sowing dates based on the calibrated parameters. Results of the present study showed that there was a good agreement (an overall R2 =, Ef= d= RMSE =) between measured and simulated values of the canopy cover and biomass yields. Considering the overall values of the statistical test indicators, the performance of the model to predict maize growth and biomass yield was successful, and so this is a valuable tool help for decision-making. Hence, this calibrated and validated model is suggested to use for determining optimum maize crop sowing date for similar climate and soil conditions to the study area, instead of conducting long-term experimentation.

Keywords: AquaCrop model, calibration, validation, simulation

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Authors: Pola Goldberg Oppenheimer, Stephan Hofmann, Sumeet Mahajan

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Owing to its fingerprint molecular specificity and high sensitivity, surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) is an established analytical tool for chemical and biological sensing capable of single-molecule detection. A strong Raman signal can be generated from SERS-active platforms given the analyte is within the enhanced plasmon field generated near a noble-metal nanostructured substrate. The key requirement for generating strong plasmon resonances to provide this electromagnetic enhancement is an appropriate metal surface roughness. Controlling nanoscale features for generating these regions of high electromagnetic enhancement, the so-called SERS ‘hot-spots’, is still a challenge. Significant advances have been made in SERS research, with wide-ranging techniques to generate substrates with tunable size and shape of the nanoscale roughness features. Nevertheless, the development and application of SERS has been inhibited by the irreproducibility and complexity of fabrication routes. The ability to generate straightforward, cost-effective, multiplex-able and addressable SERS substrates with high enhancements is of profound interest for miniaturised sensing devices. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have been concurrently, a topic of extensive research however, their applications for plasmonics has been only recently beginning to gain interest. CNTs can provide low-cost, large-active-area patternable substrates which, coupled with appropriate functionalization capable to provide advanced SERS-platforms. Herein, advanced methods to generate CNT-based SERS active detection platforms will be discussed. First, a novel electrohydrodynamic (EHD) lithographic technique will be introduced for patterning CNT-polymer composites, providing a straightforward, single-step approach for generating high-fidelity sub-micron-sized nanocomposite structures within which anisotropic CNTs are vertically aligned. The created structures are readily fine-tuned, which is an important requirement for optimizing SERS to obtain the highest enhancements with each of the EHD-CNTs individual structural units functioning as an isolated sensor. Further, gold-functionalized VACNTFs are fabricated as SERS micro-platforms. The dependence on the VACNTs’ diameters and density play an important role in the Raman signal strength, thus highlighting the importance of structural parameters, previously overlooked in designing and fabricating optimized CNTs-based SERS nanoprobes. VACNTs forests patterned into predesigned pillar structures are further utilized for multiplex detection of bio-analytes. Since CNTs exhibit electrical conductivity and unique adsorption properties, these are further harnessed in the development of novel chemical and bio-sensing platforms.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes (CNTs), EHD patterning, SERS, vertically aligned carbon nanotube forests (VACNTF)

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Authors: Namratha Pai, K. Vasantharaj, K. Haribabu

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Our Team is developing an innovative cost effective biological technique to desulfurize crude oil. ’Sulphur’ is found to be present in crude oil samples from .05% - 13.95% and its elimination by industrial methods is expensive currently. Materials required :- Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestrius, potato dextrose agar, oxygen, Pyragallol and inert gas(nitrogen). Method adapted and proposed:- 1) Growth of bacteria studied, energy needs. 2) Compatibility with crude-oil. 3) Reaction rate of bacteria studied and optimized. 4) Reaction development by computer simulation. 5) Simulated work tested by building the reactor. The method being developed requires the use of bacteria Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestrius - an acidothermophilic heterotrophic, soil dwelling aerobic, Sulfur bacteria. The bacteria are fed to crude oil in a unique manner. Its coated onto potato dextrose agar beads, cultured for 24 hours (growth time coincides with time when it begins reacting) and fed into the reactor. The beads are to be replenished with O2 by passing them through a jacket around the reactor which has O2 supply. The O2 can’t be supplied directly as crude oil is inflammable, hence the process. Beads are made to move around based on the concept of fluidized bed reactor. By controlling the velocity of inert gas pumped , the beads are made to settle down when exhausted of O2. It is recycled through the jacket where O2 is re-fed and beads which were inside the ring substitute the exhausted ones. Crude-oil is maintained between 1 atm-270 M Pa pressure and 45°C treated with tartaric acid (Ph reason for bacteria growth) for optimum output. Bacteria being of oxidising type react with Sulphur in crude-oil and liberate out SO4^2- and no gas. SO4^2- is absorbed into H2O. NaOH is fed once reaction is complete and beads separated. Crude-oil is thus separated of SO4^2-, thereby Sulphur, tartaric acid and other acids which are separated out. Bio-corrosion is taken care of by internal wall painting (phenolepoxy paints). Earlier methods used included use of Pseudomonas and Rhodococcus species. They were found to be inefficient, time and energy consuming and reduce the fuel value as they fed on skeleton.

Keywords: alicyclobacillus acidoterrestrius, potato dextrose agar, fluidized bed reactor principle, reaction time for bacteria, compatibility with crude oil

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Authors: Lombuso P. Shabalala

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This research paper investigates the importance of community involvement in tourism development activities from the initial stage. Community is defined as a group of people living in the same area and practicing common ownership and practices or with a commonality such as norms, religion, values, customs, or identity. Globalisation has restructured economic, political, and social relationships at the local level, which impacts community involvement in activities taking place in their own space. Although social relationships and interests are no longer limited to local communities, the power of place remains. Whereas, tourism is considered as an activity essential to the life of nations because of its direct effects on the social, cultural, educational, and economic sectors of national societies and their international relations. The existing literature has indicated that the four types of motivation in community involvement are best differentiated by identifying the unique ultimate goal for each motivation. In a nutshell, the ultimate goal for egoism is to increase one's own welfare; altruism is to increase the welfare of another individual or individuals; collectivism is aimed at increasing the welfare of a group, and the principlism is to uphold one or more moral principles. As a base of community involvement, each of these four forms of motivation exhibits its own strengths and weaknesses to be acknowledged. Purposive sampling was suitable to select the fourteen descendant group representatives. The representatives included chief/s, headman, senior descendants’ member, and members of the traditional council who descends from MWCHS. The qualitative research design was adopted for the study in the form of semi-structured interviews. Community development is a social process involving residents in activities designed to improve their quality of life. The key finding of the research is the importance of involving communities, in particular, the immediate community members from the initial stage of any proposed tourism development activity. Without a doubt, the immediate communities are well informed about the dynamics of the area (economically, politically, and socially). Therefore, the finding suggests that communities are in a better position to advise project managers on possible potential tourism developments activities that can address the real needs and benefit the community, instead of investing resources in a development that will not benefit or add any value in the lives of the targeted communities. It must be noted that the power of the place where the development will be implemented remains with the community. Furthermore, community support and buy-in are crucial to the success of prospective tourism development. In conclusion, it cannot be denied that community involvement comes with its own challenges, contrary to greater sustainable benefits that can be realized prior to articulation. The study suggests for project managers to ensure a fair and transparent community involvement process. Fair distribution of meaningful roles could secure trust and result in these communities to view the proposed development as their own.

Keywords: communities, development, involvement, tourism

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Authors: Liliia N. Butymova, Vladimir Ya Modorskii

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To ensure the gas transmittal GCU's efficient operation, leakages through the labyrinth packings (LP) should be minimized. Leakages can be minimized by decreasing the LP gap, which in turn depends on thermal processes and possible rotor vibrations and is designed to ensure absence of mechanical contact. Vibration mitigation allows to minimize the LP gap. It is advantageous to research influence of processes in the dynamic gas-structure system on LP vibrations. This paper considers influence of rotor vibrations on LP gas dynamics and influence of the latter on the rotor structure within the FSI unidirectional dynamical coupled problem. Dependences of nonstationary parameters of gas-dynamic process in LP on rotor vibrations under various gas speeds and pressures, shaft rotation speeds and vibration amplitudes, and working medium features were studied. The programmed multi-processor ANSYS CFX was chosen as a numerical computation tool. The problem was solved using PNRPU high-capacity computer complex. Deformed shaft vibrations are replaced with an unyielding profile that moves in the fixed annulus "up-and-down" according to set harmonic rule. This solves a nonstationary gas-dynamic problem and determines time dependence of total gas-dynamic force value influencing the shaft. Pressure increase from 0.1 to 10 MPa causes growth of gas-dynamic force oscillation amplitude and frequency. The phase shift angle between gas-dynamic force oscillations and those of shaft displacement decreases from 3π/4 to π/2. Damping constant has maximum value under 1 MPa pressure in the gap. Increase of shaft oscillation frequency from 50 to 150 Hz under P=10 MPa causes growth of gas-dynamic force oscillation amplitude. Damping constant has maximum value at 50 Hz equaling 1.012. Increase of shaft vibration amplitude from 20 to 80 µm under P=10 MPa causes the rise of gas-dynamic force amplitude up to 20 times. Damping constant increases from 0.092 to 0.251. Calculations for various working substances (methane, perfect gas, air at 25 ˚С) prove the minimum gas-dynamic force persistent oscillating amplitude under P=0.1 MPa being observed in methane, and maximum in the air. Frequency remains almost unchanged and the phase shift in the air changes from 3π/4 to π/2. Calculations for various working substances (methane, perfect gas, air at 25 ˚С) prove the maximum gas-dynamic force oscillating amplitude under P=10 MPa being observed in methane, and minimum in the air. Air demonstrates surging. Increase of leakage speed from 0 to 20 m/s through LP under P=0.1 MPa causes the gas-dynamic force oscillating amplitude to decrease by 3 orders and oscillation frequency and the phase shift to increase 2 times and stabilize. Increase of leakage speed from 0 to 20 m/s in LP under P=1 MPa causes gas-dynamic force oscillating amplitude to decrease by almost 4 orders. The phase shift angle increases from π/72 to π/2. Oscillations become persistent. Flow rate proved to influence greatly on pressure oscillations amplitude and a phase shift angle. Work medium influence depends on operation conditions. At pressure growth, vibrations are mostly affected in methane (of working substances list considered), and at pressure decrease, in the air at 25 ˚С.

Keywords: aeroelasticity, labyrinth packings, oscillation phase shift, vibration

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Authors: Oluwafemi Samuel Oyamakin

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The forest in Nigeria is currently estimated to extend to around 9.6 million hectares, but used to expand over central and southern Nigeria decades ago. The forest estate is shrinking due to long-term human exploitation for agricultural development, fuel wood demand, uncontrolled forest harvesting and urbanization, amongst other factors, compounded by population growth in rural areas. Nigeria has lost more than 50% of its forest cover since 1990 and currently less than 10% of the country is forested. The current deforestation rate is estimated at 3.7%, which is one of the highest in the world. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks constituted what is referred to as REDD+. This study evaluated some of the existing way of computing carbon stocks using eight indigenous tree species like Mansonia, Shorea, Bombax, Terminalia superba, Khaya grandifolia, Khaya senegalenses, Pines and Gmelina arborea. While these components are the essential elements of REDD+ programme, they can be brought under a broader framework of systems analysis designed to arrive at optimal solutions for future predictions through statistical distribution pattern of carbon sequestrated by various species of tree. Available data on height and diameter of trees in Ibadan were studied and their respective potentials of carbon sequestration level were assessed and subjected to tests so as to determine the best statistical distribution that would describe the carbon sequestration pattern of trees. The result of this study suggests a reasonable statistical distribution for carbons sequestered in simulation studies and hence, allow planners and government in determining resources forecast for sustainable development especially where experiments with real-life systems are infeasible. Sustainable management of forest can then be achieved by projecting future condition of forests under different management regimes thereby supporting conservation and REDD+ programmes in Nigeria.

Keywords: REDD+, carbon, climate change, height and diameter

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Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Michael A. Sprayberry, Vincent C. Paquit

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Process parameter optimization in metal powder bed electron beam melting (MPBEBM) is crucial to ensure the technology's repeatability, control, and industry-continued adoption. Despite continued efforts to address the challenges via the traditional design of experiments and process mapping techniques, there needs to be more successful in an on-the-fly optimization framework that can be adapted to MPBEBM systems. Additionally, data-intensive physics-based modeling and simulation methods are difficult to support by a metal AM alloy or system due to cost restrictions. To mitigate the challenge of resource-intensive experiments and models, this paper introduces a Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) methodology defined as an optimization problem for MPBEBM. An off-policy MORL framework based on policy gradient is proposed to discover optimal sets of beam power (P) – beam velocity (v) combinations to maintain a steady-state melt pool depth and phase transformation. For this, an experimentally validated Eagar-Tsai melt pool model is used to simulate the MPBEBM environment, where the beam acts as the agent across the P – v space to maximize returns for the uncertain powder bed environment producing a melt pool and phase transformation closer to the optimum. The culmination of the training process yields a set of process parameters {power, speed, hatch spacing, layer depth, and preheat} where the state (P,v) with the highest returns corresponds to a refined process parameter mapping. The resultant objects and mapping of returns to the P-v space show convergence with experimental observations. The framework, therefore, provides a model-free multi-objective approach to discovery without the need for trial-and-error experiments.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, metal powder bed fusion, reinforcement learning, process parameter optimization

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Authors: Anthony R. Townsend, Robyn L. Fasser

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This research project provides an interpretative phenomenological analysis of a proposed conceptual model of parenting ability that has been designed to offer recommendations to guide intervention in child custody evaluations in South Africa. A recent review of the literature on child custody evaluations reveals that while there have been significant and valuable shifts in the capacity of the legal system aided by mental health professionals in understanding children and family dynamics, there remains a conceptual gap regarding the nature of parenting ability. With a view to addressing this paucity of a theoretical basis for considering parenting ability, this research project reviews a dimensional model for the assessment of parenting ability by conceiving parenting ability as a combination of good parenting and parental fitness. This model serves as a conceptual framework to guide child-custody evaluation and refine intervention in such cases to better meet the best interests of the child in a manner that bridges the professional gap between parties, legal entities, and mental health professionals. Using a model of good parenting as a point of theoretical departure, this model incorporates both intra-psychic and interpersonal attributes and behaviours of parents to form an impression of parenting ability and identify areas for potential enhancement. This research, therefore, hopes to achieve the following: (1) to provide nuanced descriptions of parents’ parenting ability; (2) to describe parents’ parenting potential; (3) to provide a parenting assessment tool for investigators in forensic family matters that will enable more useful recommendations and interventions; (4) to develop a language of consensus for investigators, attorneys, judges and parents, in forensic family matters, as to what comprises parenting ability and how this can be assessed; and (5) that all of the aforementioned will serve to advance the best interests of the children involved in such litigious matters. The evaluative promise and post-assessment prospects of this model are illustrated through three interlinking data sets: (1) the results of interviews with South African psychologists about the model, (2) retrospective analysis of care and contact evaluation reports using the model to determine if different conclusions or more specific recommendations are generated with its use and (3) the results of an interview with a psychologist who piloted this model by using it in care and contact evaluation.

Keywords: alienation, attachment, best interests of the child, care and contact evaluation, children’s act (38 of 2005), child custody evaluation, civil forensics, gatekeeping, good parenting, good-enough parenting, health professions council of South Africa, family law, forensic mental healthcare practitioners, parental fitness, parenting ability, parent management training, parenting plan, problem-determined system, psychotherapy, support of other child-parent relationship, voice of the child

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

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Authors: L. Wei Sheng, M. T. Noor Syazwanee, C. J. Carolyna, M. Amiruddin, M. Pauziah

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This paper exhibits the alternatives towards active suspension systems revised based on the classical passive suspension system to improve comfort and handling performance. An active Magneto rheological (MR) suspension system is proposed as to explore the active based suspension system to enhance performance given its freedom to independently specify the characteristics of load carrying, handling, and ride quality. Malaysian quarter car with two degrees of freedom (2DOF) system is designed and constructed to simulate the actions of an active vehicle suspension system. The structure of a conventional twin-tube shock absorber is modified both internally and externally to comprehend with the active suspension system. The shock absorber peripheral structure is altered to enable the assembling and disassembling of the damper through a non-permanent joint whereby the stress analysis of the designed joint is simulated using Finite Element Analysis. Simulation on the internal part where an electrified copper coil of 24AWG is winded is done using Finite Element Method Magnetics to measure the magnetic flux density inside the MR damper. The primary purpose of this approach is to reduce the vibration transmitted from the effects of road surface irregularities while maintaining solid manoeuvrability. The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent control system of a consecutive damping automotive suspension system. The ride quality is improved by means of the reduction of the vertical body acceleration caused by the car body when it experiences disturbances from speed bump and random road roughness. Findings from this research are expected to enhance the quality of ride which in return can prevent the deteriorating effect of vibration on the vehicle condition as well as the passengers’ well-being.

Keywords: active suspension, FEA, magneto rheological damper, Malaysian quarter car model, vibration control

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Authors: A. Moghadasein, M. Ghasemi, S. Fazelifar

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Aim: Chemerin is a novel adipokine that play an important role in regulating lipid metabolism and abiogenesis. Chemerin is dependent on autocrine and paracrine signals for the differentiation and maturation of fat cells; it also regulates glucose uptake in fat cells and stimulates lipolysis. It has been reported that in adipocytes, chemerin enhances the insulin-stimulated glucose and causes the phosphorylation of tyrosine in Insulin receptor substrate. According to the studies, Chemerin may increase insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue and is largely associated with Body mass index, triglycerides, and blood pressure in those with normal glucose tolerance. There is limited information available regarding the effect of exercise training on serum chemerin concentrations. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of endurance training on serum chemerin levels and lipids of plasma in overweight women. Methodology: This study was a quasi-experimental research with a pre-post test design. After required examination and verification of high pressure by the physician, 22 obese subjects (age: 35.64±5.55 yr, weight: 75.62±9.30 kg, body mass index: 32.4±1.6 kg/m2) were randomly assigned to aerobic training (n= 12) and control (n= 12) groups. Participants completed a questionnaire indicating the lack of sports history during the past six months, the lack of anti-hypertension drugs use, hormone therapy, cardiovascular problems, and complete stoppage of menstrual cycle. Aerobic training was performed 3 times weekly for 8 weeks. Resting levels of chemerin plasma, metabolic parameters were measured prior to and after the intervention. The control group did not participate in any training program. In this study, ethical considerations included the complete description of the objectives to the study participants, ensuring the confidentiality of their information. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Levin test were used for determining the normal distribution of data and homogeneity of variances, respectively. Analyze of variance with repeated measure were used to investigate the changes in the intra-group and the differences in inter-group of variables. Statistical operations were performed using SPSS 16 and the significance level of the tests was considered at P < 0.05. Results: After an 8 week aerobic training, levels of chemerin plasma were significantly decreased in aerobic trained group when compared with their control groups (p < 0.05).Concurrently, levels of HDL-c were significantly decreased (p < 0.05) whereas, levels of cholesterol, TG and LDL-c, showed no significant changes (p > 0.05). No significant correlations between chemerin levels and weight loss were observed in subjects with overweight women. Conclusion: The present study demonstrated, 8 weeks aerobic training, reduced serum chemerin concentrations in overweight women. Whereas, aerobic training exercise programmers affected the lipid profile response of obese subjects differently. However further research is warranted in order to unravel the molecular mechanism for the range of responses and the role of serum chemerin.

Keywords: chemerin, aerobic training, lipid profile, obese women

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Authors: Smita Chaudhary

Abstract:

Traffic in India are observed uncontrolled, and are characterized by chaotic (not follows the lane discipline) traffic situation. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has emerged as a viable option to enhance transportation capacity and provide increased levels of mobility and accessibility. At present in Ahmadabad there are as many intersections which face the congestion and delay at signalized intersection due to transit (BRT) lanes. Most of the intersection in spite of being signalized is operated manually due to the conflict between BRT buses and heterogeneous traffic. Though BRTS in Ahmadabad has an exclusive lane of its own but with this comes certain limitations which Ahmadabad is facing right now. At many intersections in Ahmadabad due to these conflicts, interference, and congestion both heterogeneous traffic as well as transit buses suffer traffic delays of remarkable 3-4 minutes at each intersection which has a become an issue of great concern. There is no provision of BRT bus priority due to which existing signals have their least role to play in managing the traffic that ultimately call for manual operation. There is an immense decrement in the daily ridership of BRTS because people are finding this transit mode no more time saving in their routine, there is an immense fall in ridership ultimately leading to increased number of private vehicles, idling of vehicles at intersection cause air and noise pollution. In order to bring back these commuters’ transit facilities need to be improvised. Classified volume count survey, travel time delay survey was conducted and revised signal design was done for whole study stretch having three intersections and one roundabout, later one intersection was simulated in order to see the effect of giving priority to BRT on side street queue length and travel time for heterogeneous traffic. This paper aims at suggesting the recommendations in signal cycle, introduction of intermittent priority for transit buses, simulation of intersection in study stretch with proposed signal cycle using VISSIM in order to make this transit amenity feasible and attracting for commuters in Ahmadabad.

Keywords: BRT, priority, Ridership, Signal, VISSIM

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