Search results for: future returns

Authors: M. A. Ojo, O. A. Ojo, A. I. Odine, A. Ogaji

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The study examined marginal productivity analysis of small scale yam and cassava farmers in Kogi State, Nigeria. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source using a multi-stage sampling technique with structured questionnaires administered to 150 randomly selected yam and cassava farmers from three Local Government Areas of the State. Description statistics, data envelopment analysis and Cobb-Douglas production function were used to analyze the data. The DEA result on the overall technical efficiency of the farmers showed that 40% of the sampled yam and cassava farmers in the study area were operating at frontier and optimum level of production with mean technical efficiency of 1.00. This implies that 60% of the yam and cassava farmers in the study area can still improve their level of efficiency through better utilization of available resources, given the current state of technology. The results of the Cobb-Douglas analysis of factors affecting the output of yam and cassava farmers showed that labour, planting materials, fertilizer and capital inputs positively and significantly affected the output of the yam and cassava farmers in the study area. The study further revealed that yam and cassava farms in the study area operated under increasing returns to scale. This result of marginal productivity analysis further showed that relatively efficient farms were more marginally productive in resource utilization This study also shows that estimating production functions without separating the farms to efficient and inefficient farms bias the parameter values obtained from such production function. It is therefore recommended that yam and cassava farmers in the study area should form cooperative societies so as to enable them have access to productive inputs that will enable them expand. Also, since using a single equation model for production function produces a bias parameter estimates as confirmed above, farms should, therefore, be decomposed into efficient and inefficient ones before production function estimation is done.

Keywords: marginal productivity, DEA, production function, Kogi state

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Authors: Dimitrios I. Tselentis, Simon P. Washington

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Considerable literature has been focused over the last few decades on forecasting the consumer demand of Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs). These methodological issues range from how to capture recent purchase decisions in revealed choice studies and how to set up experiments in stated preference (SP) studies, and choice of analysis method for analyzing such data. This paper reviews the plethora of published studies on the field of forecasting demand of EEVs since 1980, and provides a review and annotated bibliography of that literature as it pertains to this particular demand forecasting problem. This detailed review addresses the literature not only to Transportation studies, but specifically to the problem and methodologies around forecasting to the time horizons of planning studies which may represent 10 to 20 year forecasts. The objectives of the paper are to identify where existing gaps in literature exist and to articulate where promising methodologies might guide longer term forecasting. One of the key findings of this review is that there are many common techniques used both in the field of new product demand forecasting and the field of predicting future demand for EEV. Apart from SP and RP methods, some of these new techniques that have emerged in the literature in the last few decades are survey related approaches, product diffusion models, time-series modelling, computational intelligence models and other holistic approaches.

Keywords: demand forecasting, Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs), forecasting methodologies review, methodological approaches

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Authors: Eva Degraeuwe, Margo Vandenheede, Nicholas Rennie, Jolien Braem, Miryam Serry, Frederik Berrevoet, Piet Pattyn, Wouter Willaert, InciSioN Belgium Consortium

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Background: Worldwide, five billion people lack access to safe and affordable surgical care. An added 1.27 million surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians (SAO) are needed by 2030 to meet the target of 20 per 100,000 population and to reach the goal of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. A well-informed future generation exposed early on to the current challenges in global surgery (GS) is necessary to ensure a sustainable future. Methods: InciSioN, the International Student Surgical Network, is a non-profit organization by and for students, residents, and fellows in over 80 countries. InciSioN Belgium, one of the prominent national working groups, has made a vast progression and collaborated with other networks to fill the educational gap, stimulate advocacy efforts and increase interactions with the international network. This report describes a roadmap to achieve sustainable development and education within GS, with the example of InciSioN Belgium. Results: Since the establishment of the organization’s branch in 2019, it has hosted an educational workshop for first-year residents in surgery, engaging over 2500 participants, and established a recurring directing board of 15 members. In the year 2020-2021, InciSioN Ghent has organized three workshops combining educational and interactive sessions for future prime advocates and surgical candidates. InciSioN Belgium has set up a strong formal coalition with the Belgian Medical Students’ Association (BeMSA), with its own standing committee, reaching over 3000+ medical students annually. In 2021-2022, InciSioN Belgium broadened to a multidisciplinary approach, including dentistry and nursing students and graduates within workshops and research projects, leading to a member and exposure increase of 450%. This roadmap sets strategic goals and mechanisms for the GS community to achieve nationwide sustained improvements in the research and education of GS focused on future SAOs, in order to achieve the GS sustainable development goals. In the coming year, expansion is directed to a formal integration of GS into the medical curriculum and increased international advocacy whilst inspiring SAOs to integrate into GS in Belgium. Conclusion: The development and implementation of durable change for GS are necessary. The student organization InciSioN Belgium is growing and hopes to close the colossal gap in GS and inspire the growth of other branches while sharing the know-how of a student organization.

Keywords: advocacy, education, global surgery, InciSioN, student network

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Authors: Sawan Kumar Jangid

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The paper attempts to study various facets of urbanization and regional planning in the framework of the present conditions and future needs. Urbanization is a dynamic system in which development and changes are prominent features; which implies population growth and changes in the primary, secondary and tertiary sector in the economy. Urban population is increasing day by day due to a natural increase in population and migration from rural areas, and the impact is bound to have in urban areas in terms of infrastructure, environment, water supply and other vital resources. For the organized way of planning and monitoring the implementation of Physical urban and regional plans high-resolution satellite imagery is the potential solution. Now the Remote Sensing data is widely used in urban as well as regional planning, infrastructure planning mainly telecommunication and transport network planning, highway development, accessibility to market area development in terms of catchment and population built-up area density. With Remote Sensing it is possible to identify urban growth, which falls outside the formal planning control. Remote Sensing and GIS technique combined together facilitate the planners, in making a decision, for general public and investors to have relevant data for their use in minimum time. This paper sketches out the Urbanization modal for the future development of Urban and Regional Planning. The paper suggests, a dynamic approach towards regional development strategy.

Keywords: development, dynamic, migration, resolution

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Authors: Bin Wang, Yong Xu, Honggang Qu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao

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Based on the geodynamic environment, basic geological characteristics of minerals and so on, gold deposits in China are divided into 11 categories, of which tectonic fracture altered rock, mid-intrudes and contact zone, micro-fine disseminated and continental volcanic types are the main prospecting kinds. The metallogenic age of gold deposits in China is dominated by the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. According to the geotectonic units, geological evolution, geological conditions, spatial distribution, gold deposits types, metallogenic factors etc., 42 gold concentration areas are initially determined and have a concentrated distribution feature. On the basis of the gold exploration density, gold concentration areas are divided into high, medium and low level areas. High ones are mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions. 93.04% of the gold exploration drillings are within 500 meters, but there are some problems, such as less and shallower of drilling verification etc.. The paper discusses the resource potentials of gold deposits and proposes the future prospecting directions and suggestions. The deep and periphery of old mines in the central and eastern regions and western area, especially in Xinjiang and Qinghai, will be the future key prospecting one and have huge potential gold reserves. If the exploration depth is extended to 2,000 meters shallow, the gold resources will double.

Keywords: gold deposits, gold deposits types, gold concentration areas, prospecting, resource potentiality

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Authors: Hadjer Chellia

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In the light of the recent global pandemic, different issues in educational research seem to invite careful considerations. Following this perspective, this study sets out to question the concept of classroom management in an EFL higher education context during Covid-19. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of their experiences, 6 EFL teachers from different Algerian universities took part in semi-structured interviews. The main emerging themes revealed that EFL teachers have different pedagogical practices in relation to classroom management during the global crisis than those of normal times. In relation to flexible education theory, the teachers’ experiences suggest flexible classroom management during Covid-19; flexibility in the teaching methods, approach and design, flexibility in time, flexibility in space and pace (speed), flexibility in assessment modes and flexibility in coping with students’ well-being. The flexibility awareness helps them to develop readiness towards the future, mainly in terms of maintaining an appropriate pedagogy to face the future crisis. In terms of theoretical concepts, working on classroom management under unusual circumstances in relation to flexible education helped come out with the concept of flexible classroom management (FCM) and virtual classroom management (VCM). It is then important for educators and researchers to rethink different pedagogical concepts and mind a careful application in the case of unusual times.

Keywords: Covid-19, EFL educators, flexible classroom management, flexible education, virtual classroom management

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Authors: B. Casper

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The energy transition towards renewable energies and drastically reduced carbon dioxide emissions in Germany drives multiple sectors into a transformation process. Photovoltaic and on-shore wind power are predominantly feeding in the low and medium-voltage grids. The electricity grid is not laid out to allow an increasing feed-in of power in low and medium voltage grids. Electric mobility is currently in the run-up phase in Germany and still lacks a significant amount of charging stations. The additional power demand by e-mobility cannot be supplied by the existing electric grids in most cases. The future demands in heating and cooling of commercial and residential buildings are increasingly generated by heat-pumps. Yet the most important part in the energy transition is the storage of surplus energy generated by photovoltaic and wind power sources. Water electrolysis is one way to store surplus energy known as power-to-gas. With the vehicle-to-grid technology, the upcoming fleet of electric cars could be used as energy storage to stabilize the grid. All these processes use direct current (DC). The demand of bi-directional flow and higher efficiency in the future grids can be met by using DC. The Flexible Electrical Networks (FEN) research campus at RWTH Aachen investigates interdisciplinary about the advantages, opportunities, and limitations of DC grids. This paper investigates the impact of DC grids as a technological innovation on the urban form and urban life. Applying explorative scenario development, analyzation of mapped open data sources on grid networks and research-by-design as a conceptual design method, possible starting points for a transformation to DC medium voltage grids could be found. Several fields of action have emerged in which DC technology could become a catalyst for future urban development: energy transition in urban areas, e-mobility, and transformation of the network infrastructure. The investigation shows a significant potential to increase renewable energy production within cities with DC grids. The charging infrastructure for electric vehicles will predominantly be using DC in the future because fast and ultra fast charging can only be achieved with DC. Our research shows that e-mobility, combined with autonomous driving has the potential to change the urban space and urban logistics fundamentally. Furthermore, there are possible win-win-win solutions for the municipality, the grid operator and the inhabitants: replacing overhead transmission lines by underground DC cables to open up spaces in contested urban areas can lead to a positive example of how the energy transition can contribute to a more sustainable urban structure. The outlook makes clear that target grid planning and urban planning will increasingly need to be synchronized.

Keywords: direct current, e-mobility, energy transition, grid planning, renewable energy, urban planning

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Authors: Pataramon Satalak, Sakrit Isariyanon, Teerapong Puripanik

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This article uses the recent events in Thailand as a case study for examining why democratic transition is necessary during political upheaval to ensure that the people’s power remains unaffected. After seizing power in May 2014, the military, backed by anti-government protestors, selected and established their own system to govern the country. They set up the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) which established a People’s Assembly, aiming to reach a compromise between the conflicting opinions of former, pro-government and anti-government protesters. It plans to achieve this through political reform before returning sovereign power to the people via an election in 2018. If a governmental authority is not representative of the people (e.g. a military government) it does not count as a legitimate government. During the last four years of military government, from May 2014 to January 2018, their rule of Thailand has been widely controversial, specifically regarding their commitment to democracy, human rights violations and their manipulation of the rule of law. Democratic legitimacy relies not only on established mechanisms for public participation (like referendums or elections) but also public participation based on accessible and educational reform (often via NGOs) to ensure that the free and fair will of the people can be expressed. Through their actions over the last three years, the Thai military government has damaged both of these components, impacting future public participation in politics. The authors make some observations about the specific actions the military government has taken to erode the democratic legitimacy of future public participation: the increasing dominance of military courts over civil courts; civil society’s limited involvement in political activities; the drafting of a new constitution and their attempt to master support through referenda and its consequence for delaying organic law-making process; the structure of the legislative powers (Senate and the members of parliament); and the control of people’s basic freedoms of expression, movement and assembly in political activities. One clear consequence of the military government’s specific actions over the last three years is the increased uncertainty amongst Thai people that their fundamental freedoms and political rights will be respected in the future. This will directly affect their participation in future democratic processes. The military government’s actions (e.g. their response to the UN representatives) will also have influenced potential international engagement in Thai civil society to help educate disadvantaged people about their rights, and their participation in the political arena. These actions challenge the democratic idea that there should be a checking and balancing of power between people and government. These examples provide evidence that a democratic transition is crucial during any process of political transformation.

Keywords: political tranformation, public participation, Thailand coup d'etat 2014, election 2018

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Authors: Ruth Nsibirano

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Online mode of delivery in higher institutions of learning, popularly known in some circles as e-Learning or distance education is a new phenomenon that is steadily taking root in African universities but specifically at Makerere University. For slightly over a decade, the Department of Open and Distance Learning has been offering the first generation mode of distance education. In this, learning and teaching experiences were based on the use of hard copy materials circulated through postal services in a rather correspondence mode. There were more challenges to this including high dropout rates, limited support to the learners and sustainability issues. Fortunately, the Department was supported by the Norwegian Government through a NORHED grant to “leapfrog” to the fifth generation of distance education that makes more use of educational technologies and tools. The capacity of faculty staff was gradually enhanced through a series of training to handle the upgraded structure of fifth generation distance education. The trained staff was then tasked to develop modules befitting an online delivery mode, for use on the program. This paper will present attitudes, experiences of the course writers with a view of sharing the good practices that enabled them leap from e-faculty trainees to distinct online course writers. This perspective will hopefully serve as building blocks to enhance the capacity of other upcoming distance education programs in low capacity universities and also promote the uptake of e-Education on the continent and beyond. Methodologically the findings were collected through individual interviews with the 30 course writers. In addition, semi structured questionnaires were designed to collect data on the profile, challenges and lessons from the writers. Findings show that the attitudes of course writers on project supported activities are so much tagged to the returns from their committed efforts. In conclusion, therefore, it is strategically useful to assess and selectively choose which individual to nominate for involvement at the initial stages.

Keywords: distance education, online course content, staff attitudes, best practices in online learning

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Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

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Authors: Sérgio J. Teixeira, João J. Ferreira

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Tourism frequently gets identified as one of the sectors with the greatest potential for expansion on a global scale and hence conveying the importance of attempting to better understand the regional factors of competitiveness prevailing in this sector. This study’s objective essentially strives to provide a mapping of the scientific publications and the intellectual knowledge therein contained while conveying past research trends and identifying potential future lines of research in the fields of regional competitiveness and tourism innovation. This correspondingly deploys a systematic review of the literature in keeping with the bibliometric approach based upon VOSviewer software, with a particular focus on drafting maps for visualising the underlying intellectual structure. This type of analysis encapsulates the number of articles published and their annual number of citations for the period between 1900 and 2016 as registered by the Web of Science database. The results demonstrate how the intellectual structure on regional competitiveness divides essentially into three major categories: regional competitiveness, tourism innovation, and tourism clusters. Thus, the main contribution of this study arises out of identifying the main research trends in this field and the respective shortcomings and specific needs for future scientific research in the field of regional competitiveness and innovation in tourism.

Keywords: regional competitiveness, tourism cluster, bibliometric studies, tourism innovation, systematic review

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Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

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Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

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Authors: N. M. Tawil, A. R. Musa, A. I Che-Ani, H. Basri

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It is known that rising of house prices recently has affected the home ownership, especially for the future. Hence to overcome the rose of housing prices, the self-build home or DIY concept is perceived as one of the solution. This concept is proposed to be implemented for the future housing design as a strategy in helping the government to provide affordable housing, especially for middle income group to own a landed housing property. This concept is expected to offer a lower housing price for middle-income buyers and provide an opportunity for buyers to design their dream’s home with the self-build home or 'Do It Yourself' (DIY) concept. In order to implement this concept as affordable housing for MIG, the public perceptions and acceptances on the self-build home/ DIY concept itself should be identified. To achieve this aim this study was conducted by using 2 method namely literature review and questionnaire survey. The questionnaire survey was distributed to 200 respondents randomly in Lembah Klang and were analysed through the SPSS program. The results show that respondents are very interested in buying a home that they can have with the appropriate size of the home. Average of them known about Do It Yourself (DIY) concept but none of respondent have implement this concept. Most of respondents were agreed that this DIY method suitable to be implemented in the housing industry in Malaysia and they were agreed that this concept can offer a cheaper housing price because the construction costs were reduced. Moreover by providing a basic home the owner can renovate their home according to their need and financial capability.

Keywords: affordable housing, Do It Yourself, self-Built home, perception, middle income group

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Authors: S. L. Tulasi Devi, Shivam Azad

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The primary objective of this study is to analyze the impact of green bond issuance on the stock prices of respective Indian companies. An event study methodology has been employed to study the effect of green bond issuance. For in-depth study and analysis, this paper used different window frames, including 15-15 days, 10-10 days, 7-7days, 6-6 days, and 5-5 days. Further, for better clarity, this paper also used an uneven window period of 7-5 days. The period of study covered all the companies which issued green bonds during the period of 2017-2022; Adani Green Energy, State Bank of India, Power Finance Corporation, Jain Irrigation, and Rural Electrification Corporation, except Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency and Indian Railway Finance Corporation, because of data unavailability. The paper used all three event study methods as discussed in earlier literature; 1) constant return model, 2) market-adjusted model, and 3) capital asset pricing model. For the fruitful comparison between results, the study considered cumulative average return (CAR) and buy and hold average return (BHAR) methodology. For checking the statistical significance, a two-tailed t-statistic has been used. All the statistical calculations have been performed in Microsoft Excel 2016. The study found that all other companies have shown positive returns on the event day except for the State Bank of India. The results demonstrated that constant return model outperformed compared to the market-adjusted model and CAPM. The p-value derived from all the methods has shown an almost insignificant impact of the issuance of green bonds on the stock prices of respective companies. The overall analysis states that there’s not much improvement in the market efficiency of the Indian Stock Markets.

Keywords: green bonds, event study methodology, constant return model, market-adjusted model, CAPM

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Authors: S. P. Singh, Priya, Komal Sajwan

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With the increasing spread of organic farming in India, costs, returns, efficiency, and social and environmental sustainability of organic vis-a-vis conventional farming systems have become topics of interest among agriculture scientists, economists, and policy analysts. A study on technical efficiency estimation under these farming systems, particularly in the Ganga River Basin, where the promotion of organic farming is incentivized, can help to understand whether the inputs are utilized to their maximum possible level and what measures can be taken to improve the efficiency. This paper, therefore, analyses the technical efficiency of wheat farms operating under organic and conventional farming systems. The study is based on a primary survey of 600 farms (300 organic ad 300 conventional) conducted in 2021 in two districts located in the Middle Ganga River Basin, India. Technical, managerial, and scale efficiencies of individual farms are estimated by applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. The per hectare value of wheat production is taken as an output variable, and values of seeds, human labour, machine cost, plant nutrients, farm yard manure (FYM), plant protection, and irrigation charges are considered input variables for estimating the farm-level efficiencies. The post-DEA analysis is conducted using the Tobit regression model to know the efficiency determining factors. The results show that technical efficiency is significantly higher in conventional than organic farming systems due to a higher gap in scale efficiency than managerial efficiency. Further, 9.8% conventional and only 1.0% organic farms are found operating at the most productive scale size (MPSS), and 99% organic and 81% conventional farms at IRS. Organic farms perform well in managerial efficiency, but their technical efficiency is lower than conventional farms, mainly due to their relatively lower scale size. The paper suggests that technical efficiency in organic wheat can be increased by upscaling the farm size by incentivizing group/collective farming in clusters.

Keywords: organic, conventional, technical efficiency, determinants, DEA, Tobit regression

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Authors: Muhammad Tanveer Altaf, Mehmet Bedir, Waqas Liaqat, Gönül Cömertpay, Volkan Çatalkaya, Celaluddin Barutçular, Nergiz Çoban, Ibrahim Cerit, Muhammad Azhar Nadeem, Tolga Karaköy, Faheem Shehzad Baloch

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Food production needs to be almost double by 2050 in order to feed around 9 billion people around the Globe. Plant production mostly relies on fertilizers, which also have one of the main roles in environmental pollution. In addition to this, climatic conditions are unpredictable, and the earth is expected to face severe drought conditions in the future. Therefore, water and fertilizers, especially nitrogen are considered as main constraints for future food security. To face these challenges, developing integrative approaches for germplasm characterization and selecting the resilient genotypes performing under limiting conditions is very crucial for effective breeding to meet the food requirement under climatic change scenarios. This study is part of the European Research Area Network (ERANET) project for the characterization of the diversity panel of 172 sorghum accessions and six hybrids as control cultivars under limiting (+N/-H2O, -N/+H2O) and non-limiting conditions (+N+H2O). This study was planned to characterize the sorghum diversity in relation to resource Use Efficiency (RUE), with special attention on harnessing the interaction between genotype and environment (GxE) from a physiological and agronomic perspective. Experiments were conducted at Adana, a Mediterranean climate, with augmented design, and data on various agronomic and physiological parameters were recorded. Plentiful diversity was observed in the sorghum diversity panel and significant variations were seen among the limiting water and nitrogen conditions in comparison with the control experiment. Potential genotypes with the best performance are identified under limiting conditions. Whole genome resequencing was performed for whole germplasm under investigation for diversity analysis. GWAS analysis will be performed using genotypic and phenotypic data and linked markers will be identified. The results of this study will show the adaptation and improvement of sorghum under climate change conditions for future food security.

Keywords: germplasm, sorghum, drought, nitrogen, resources use efficiency, sequencing

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Authors: Martin Doran, Roy Sterritt, George Wilkie

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NASA, ESA, and NSSC space agencies have plans to put planetary rovers on Mars in 2020. For these future planetary rovers to succeed, they will heavily depend on sensors to detect obstacles. This will also become of vital importance in the future, if rovers become less dependent on commands received from earth-based control and more dependent on self-configuration and self-decision making. These planetary rovers will face harsh environments and the possibility of hardware failure is high, as seen in missions from the past. In this paper, we focus on using Autonomic principles where self-healing, self-optimization, and self-adaption are explored using the MAPE-K model and expanding this model to encapsulate the attributes such as Awareness, Analysis, and Adjustment (AAA-3). In the experimentation, a Pioneer P3-DX research robot is used to simulate a planetary rover. The sonar sensors on the P3-DX robot are used to simulate the sensors on a planetary rover (even though in reality, sonar sensors cannot operate in a vacuum). Experiments using the P3-DX robot focus on how our software system can be adapted with the loss of sonar sensor functionality. The autonomic manager system is responsible for the decision making on how to make use of remaining ‘enabled’ sonars sensors to compensate for those sonar sensors that are ‘disabled’. The key to this research is that the robot can still detect objects even with reduced sonar sensor capability.

Keywords: autonomic, self-adaption, self-healing, self-optimization

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Authors: Eman. K. Ramadan, Abdelgawad. S. El-Tahawy

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of calving season on the production and economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. Our study was performed at dairy production farms in the Alexandria, Behera, and Kafr El-Sheikh provinces of Egypt from summer 2010 to winter 2013. The randomly selected dairy farms had herds consisting of Baladi, Holstein-Friesian, or cross-bred (Baladi × Holstein-Friesian) cows. The data were collected from production records and responses to a structured questionnaire. The average total return differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the different cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average total return was highest for the Holstein-Friesian cows that calved in the winter (29106.42 EGP/cow/year), and it was lowest for Baladi cows that calved in the summer (12489.79 EGP/cow/year). Differences in total returns between the cows that calved in the winter or summer or between the foreign and native breeds, as well as variations in calf prices, might have contributed to the differences in milk yield. The average net profit per cow differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average net profit values for the Baladi cows that calved in the winter or summer were 2413 and 2994.96 EGP/cow/year, respectively, and those for the Holstein-Friesian cows were 10744.17 and 7860.56 EGP/cow/year, respectively, whereas those for the cross-bred cows were 10174.86 and 7571.33 EGP/cow/year, respectively. The variations in net profit might have resulted from variation in the availability or price of feed materials, milk prices, or sales volumes. Our results show that the breed and calving season of dairy cows significantly affected the economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. The cows that calved in the winter produced more milk than those that calved in the summer, which may have been the result of seasonal influences, such as temperature, humidity, management practices, and the type of feed or green fodder available.

Keywords: calving season, economic, production, efficiency, dairy

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Authors: Amr Ali Bayoumi, Ola Ali Bayoumi

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The aim of this research is enhancing one of the main aspects (Social Aspect) for developing an eco-lodge in Siwa oasis in Egyptian Western Desert. According to credible weightings built in this research through formal and informal questionnaires, the researcher detected one of the highest credible aspects, 'Social Aspect': through which it carries the maximum priorities among the total environmental and economic categories. From here, the researcher suggested the usage of ethnographic design approach and Space Syntax as observational and computational methods for developing future Eco-lodge in Siwa Oasis. These methods are used to study social spaces of Babenshal eco-lodge as a case study. This hybrid method is considered as a beginning of building Social Assessment Tool (SAT) for ecological tourism buildings located in Siwa as a case of Egyptian Western desert community. Towards livable social spaces, the proposed SAT was planned to be the optimum measurable weightings for social aspect's priorities of future Siwan eco-lodge(s). Finally, recommendations are proposed for enhancing SAT to be more correlated with sensitive desert biome (Siwa Oasis) to be adapted with the continuous social and environmental changes of the oasis.

Keywords: ecolodge, social aspect, space syntax, Siwa Oasis

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Sacha Joseph-Mathews, Leili Javadpour

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In the tourism industry, hoteliers spend millions annually on marketing and positioning efforts for their respective hotels, all in an effort to create a specific image in the minds of the consumer. Yet despite extensive efforts to seduce potential hotel guests with sophisticated advertising messages generated by hotel entities, consumers continue to mistrust corporate branding, preferring instead to place their trust in the reviews of their consumer peers. In today’s complex and cluttered marketplace, online reviews can serve as a mediator for consumers who do not have actual knowledge and experiences with the brand, but are in the process of deciding whether or not to engage in a consumption exercise. Traditionally, consumers have used online reviews as a source of comfort and confirmation of a product/service’s positioning. But today, very few customers make any purchase decisions without first researching existing user reviews, making reviews more of a necessity, rather than a luxury in the purchase decision process. The influence of user generated content (UGC) is amplified in the tourism industry; as more than a third of potential hotel guests will not book a room without first reading a review. As corporate branding becomes less relevant and online reviews become more important, how much of the consumer’s stay expectations are being dictated by existing UGC? Moreover, as hotel guest experience a hotel through the lens of an existing review, how much of their stay and in turn their review, would have been influenced by those reviews that they read? Ultimately, there is the potential for UGC to dictate what potential guests will be most critical about, and or most focused on during their stay. If UGC is a stronger influencer in the purchase decision process than corporate branding, doesn’t it have the potential to dictate, the entire stay experience by influencing the expectations of the guest prior to them arriving on the property? For example, if a hotel is an eco-destination and they focus their branding on their website around sustainability and the retreat nature of the hotel. Yet, guest reviews constantly discuss how dissatisfactory the service and food was with no mention of nature or sustainability, will future reviews then focus primarily on the food? Using text analysis software to examine over 25,000 online reviews, we explore the extent to which new reviews are influenced by wording used in previous reviews for a hotel property, versus content generated by corporate positioning. Additionally, we investigate how distinct hotel related UGC is across different types of tourism destinations. Our findings suggest that UGC can have a greater impact on future reviews, than corporate branding and there is more cohesiveness across UGC of different types of hotel properties than anticipated. A model of User Generated Content Influence is presented and the managerial impact of the power of online reviews to trump corporate branding and shape future user experiences is discussed.

Keywords: user generated content, UGC, corporate branding, online reviews, hotels and tourism

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Authors: Lichung Jen, Yi Chun Liu, Kuan-Wei Lee

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Fruitful data has been accumulated in database nowadays and is commonly used as support for decision-making. In the healthcare industry, hospital, for instance, ordering pharmacy inventory is one of the key decision. With large drug inventory, the current cost increases and its expiration dates might lead to future issue, such as drug disposal and recycle. In contrast, underestimating demand of the pharmacy inventory, particularly standing drugs, affects the medical treatment and possibly hospital reputation. Prescription behaviour of hospital physicians is one of the critical factor influencing this decision, particularly irregular prescription behaviour. If a drug’s usage amount in the month is irregular and less than the regular usage, it may cause the trend of subsequent stockpiling. On the contrary, if a drug has been prescribed often than expected, it may result in insufficient inventory. We proposed a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model with two components to identify physicians’ regular/irregular prescription patterns with probabilities. Heterogeneity of hospital is considered in our proposed hierarchical Bayes model. The result suggested that modeling the prescription patterns of physician is beneficial for estimating the order quantity of medication and pharmacy inventory management of the hospital. Managerial implication and future research are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical Bayesian model, poission mixture model, medicines prescription behavior, irregular behavior

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Authors: Efrizal, Ferdiansyah, Noorlailie Soewarno, Bambang Tjahjadi

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Tax revenue plays an important role in the State Budget of the Government of Indonesia (GOI). The GOI keeps raising tax revenue portion of the Budget from year to year. The low tax ratio of 11 percent in Indonesia shows a big opportunity to collect taxes in the future. The Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) is the institution mandated by the Law to collect tax revenue. This is a case study using quantitative and qualitative approaches. This study introduces contingent factors of taxpayers’ compliance as the mediating variable and internal business process as the independent variable. This study aims to empirically test the contingency theory, especially the mediating effect of taxpayers’ compliance on internal business process-tax revenue relationship. Internal business processes of the DGT include servicing, counseling, expanding, supervising, inspecting, and enforcing. The secondary data of 31 regional offices representing 293 tax offices in Indonesia was collected and analyzed using Partial Least Square. The result showed the following: (1) internal business process affected tax revenue; (2) taxpayers’ compliance did not mediate internal business processes - tax revenue relationship, and (3) taxpayers’ compliance affected tax revenue. In-depth interviews revealed that the DGT needs to make more innovations in business processes in the future.

Keywords: innovations, internal business process, taxpayers’ compliance, tax revenue

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Authors: Klára Gajdošíková

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The aim of this study was to examine the quiet eye method and its components using the mobile eye tracking device. Quiet eye training was proven to be beneficial for different sports, including golf. The main idea of this method is to prolong your fixations on a specific place in order to improve your performance. The shot examined in this study is called putt. Its importance is based on its role on a golf course because, many times, it is the last putt that decides whether you win or lose. Quiet eye training helps players be more focused under pressure, control their attention and overall improve their putting success. Six highly skilled golfers with a handicap ranging from - 4 to + 4, aged 23 to 26, participated in a pilot study with the usage of an eye-tracking device. The study took place in an indoor training area at the golf club Hostivař. Crosstabs showed significant differences between individuals' laterality and their gaze into AOI - areas of interest (middle part of the ball, top of the ball, bottom of the ball, back side of the ball). Statistically significant differences were also discovered between the mean fixation duration of participants with AOI on the middle part of the ball and all other AOIs. The results of this study helped us understand the examined phenomena and showed us the next aim in future quiet eye research. Future research should focus on examining a quiet eye on the golf course. Applying a quiet eye and therefore changing the way we concentrate might be beneficial for coaches and players themselves.

Keywords: eye tracking, golf, laterality, quiet eye

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Authors: Rachel Byrne

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Background: Due to patient and student safety concerns, combined with clinical teachers being redeployed to clinical practice, COVID-19 has resulted in a reduction in face-to-face teaching sessions for medical students. Traditionally such sessions are particularly important for final year medical students, especially in preparing for their final practical exams. A reduced student presence on the wards has also resulted in fewer opportunities for junior doctors to provide teaching sessions. This has implications for junior doctors achieving their own curriculum outcomes for teaching, as well as potentially hindering the development of a future interest in medical education. Aims: The aims of the study are 1) To create a safe face-to-face teaching environment during COVID-19 which focussed on exam preparation for final year medical students, 2) To provide a platform for doctors to gain teaching experience, 3 ) to enable doctors to gain feedback or assessments on their teaching, 4) To create beginners guide to designing a new teaching program for future junior doctors. Methods: We created a program of timed clinical stations consisting of four sessions every five weeks during the student’s medicine attachment. Each session could be attended by 6 students and consisted of 6 stations ran by junior doctors, with each station following social distancing and personal protective equipment requirements. Junior doctors were asked to design their own stations. The sessions ran out-of-hours on weekday evenings and were optional for the students. Results: 95/95 students and 20/40 doctors involved in the programme completed feedback. 100% (n=95) of students strongly agreed/agreed that sessions were aimed at an appropriate level and provided constructive feedback. 100% (n=95) of students stated they felt more confident in their abilities and would recommend the session to peers. 90% (n=18) of the teachers strongly agreed/agreed that they felt more confident in their teaching abilities and that the sessions had improved their own medical knowledge. 85% (n=17) of doctors had a teaching assessment completed, and 83% (n=16) said the program had made them consider a career in medical education. The difficulties of creating such a program were highlighted throughout, and a beginner’s guide was created with the hopes of helping future doctors who are interested in teaching address the common obstacles.

Keywords: COVID-19, education, safety, medical

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Authors: Donald Wright

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The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

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Authors: K. W. A. M. Kokila, Matsui Kenichi

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Sri Lanka’s disaster management policy aims to protect lives and developments in disaster affected areas by effectively using resources for disaster risk reduction, emergency management, and community awareness. However, funding for these action programs has posed a serious challenge to the country’s economy. This paper examines the extent to which private-public partnerships (PPPs) can facilitate and expedite disaster management works. In particular, it discusses the results of the questionnaire survey among policymakers, government administrators, NGOs, and private businesses. This questionnaire was conducted in 2017. All respondents were selected based on their experience in PPP projects in the past. The survey focused on clarifying the effectiveness of past PPP projects as well as their efficiency and transparency. The respondents also provided their own opinions and suggestions to improve the future PPP projects in Sri Lanka. The questionnaire was distributed to fifteen persons. The results show that almost all respondents think that PPP projects are beneficial and important for future disaster risk management in Sri Lanka. The respondents, however, showed some reservation about effectiveness and transparency of the PPP process. This paper also discusses the results on the respondents’ perceptions about their capacity regarding human resources and management. This paper, overall, sheds light on technological, financial and human resource management practices in developed countries as well as policy and legislation provisions regarding PPP projects.

Keywords: disaster management, policy, private public partnership, projects

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Authors: Ebuwa Osagie, Chet Biliyok, Yeung Hoi

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Regeneration energy requirement and ways to reduce it is the main aim of most CO2 capture researches currently being performed and thus, post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) option is identified to be the most suitable for the natural gas-fired power plants. From current research and development (R&D) activities worldwide, two main areas are being examined in order to reduce the regeneration energy requirement of amine-based PCC, namely: (a) development of new solvents with better overall performance than 30wt% monoethanolamine (MEA) aqueous solution, which is considered as the base-line solvent for solvent-based PCC, (b) Integration of the PCC Plant to the power plant. In scaling-up a PCC pilot plant to the size required for a commercial-scale natural gas-fired power plant, process modelling and simulation is very essential. In this work, an integrated process made up of a 482MWe natural gas-fired power plant, an MEA-based PCC plant which is developed and validated has been modelled and simulated. The PCC plant has four absorber columns and a single stripper column, the modelling and simulation was performed with Aspen Plus® V8.4. The gas turbine, the heat recovery steam generator and the steam cycle were modelled based on a 2010 US DOE report, while the MEA-based PCC plant was modelled as a rate-based process. The scaling of the amine plant was performed using a rate based calculation in preference to the equilibrium based approach for 90% CO2 capture. The power plant was integrated to the PCC plant in three ways: (i) flue gas stream from the power plant which is divided equally into four stream and each stream is fed into one of the four absorbers in the PCC plant. (ii) Steam draw-off from the IP/LP cross-over pipe in the steam cycle of the power plant used to regenerate solvent in the reboiler. (iii) Condensate returns from the reboiler to the power plant. The integration of a PCC plant to the NGCC plant resulted in a reduction of the power plant output by 73.56 MWe and the net efficiency of the integrated system is reduced by 7.3 % point efficiency. A secondary aim of this study is the parametric studies which have been performed to assess the impacts of natural gas on the overall performance of the integrated process and this is achieved through investigation of the capture efficiencies.

Keywords: natural gas-fired, power plant, MEA, CO2 capture, modelling, simulation

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Authors: Hyunsik Park

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Objective: To provide information of charged nursing care facility for helping to establish geriatric health care policy, and to figure out which factors would be the main determinants for the choice of it. Method: 46 males and 53 females, and the same number of their caregivers admitted into the charged nursing care facility were recruited for intensive interview including personal information, disease information, and economic, familial, marital and emotional statuses. This is a cross-sectional study and we analyzed the data qualitatively. Results: Patients had 3.2 diseases and a hospitalization for 2.3 years on average. They were consists of 46 singles (46.9%), 8 unmarried (8.2%), 5 divorced (5.1%) and 32 married (32.7%). More than two third (70.1%) were supported by their eldest son or daughter. Mostly, the family caregivers decided to admit into the facilities by the doctor’s recommendation (68.4%). When they made a choice for a facility, most of them (42.9%) considered environmental and sanitary conditions. According to their expectation for management in nursing care facility, most caregivers (59.2%) wanted simple-staying for the duration, but most patients (61.3%) expected to be home after taking comprehensive rehabilitation. Three-quarter of the caregivers would agree to use nursing care facilities in the future, if they would be the same situation. Conclusion: Life style and environment are rapidly changing. In the near future, we need lots of the charged nursing care facilities for the old, thus this study can be the good reference for the preparing upcoming aged and super-aged society.

Keywords: nursing care facility, aged society, qualitative analysis, health

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Authors: Molla Tadesse Lakew

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This study was intended to identify the factors influencing the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing in Fogera district. The use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing and factors influencing mobile phone use were specific objectives of the study. Three kebeles from the Fogera district were selected purposively based on their vegetable production potential. A simple random sampling technique (lottery method) was used to select 153 vegetable producer farmers. Interview schedule and key informants interviews were used to collect primary data. For analyzing the data, descriptive statistics like frequency and percentage, two independent t-tests, and chi-square were used. Furthermore, econometric analysis (binary logistic model) was used to assess the factors influencing mobile phone use for vegetable market information. Contingency coefficient and variance inflation factor were used to check multicollinearity problems between the independent variables. Of 153 respondents, 82 (61.72%) were mobile phone users, while 71 (38.28 %) were mobile phone nonusers. Moreover, the main use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing includes communicating at a distance to save time and minimizing transport costs, getting vegetable marketing price information, identifying markets and buyers to sell the vegetable, deciding when to sell the vegetable, negotiating with buyers for better vegetable prices and for searching of the fast market to avoid from losing of product through perishing. The model result indicated that the level of education, size of land, income, access to credit, and age were significant variables affecting the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing. It could be recommended to encourage adult education or give training for farmers on how to operate mobile phones and create awareness for the elderly rural farmers as they are able to use the mobile phone for their vegetable marketing. Moreover, farmers should be aware that mobile phones are very important for those who own very small land to get maximum returns from their production. Lastly, providing access to credit and improving and diversifying income sources for the farmers to have mobile phones were recommended to improve the livelihood of farmers.

Keywords: mobile phone, farmers, vegetable marketing, Fogera District

Procedia PDF Downloads 74