Search results for: behavior detection
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9710

Search results for: behavior detection

2120 Diagnostic Contribution of the MMSE-2:EV in the Detection and Monitoring of the Cognitive Impairment: Case Studies

Authors: Cornelia-Eugenia Munteanu

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to present the diagnostic contribution that the screening instrument, Mini-Mental State Examination-2: Expanded Version (MMSE-2:EV), brings in detecting the cognitive impairment or in monitoring the progress of degenerative disorders. The diagnostic signification is underlined by the interpretation of the MMSE-2:EV scores, resulted from the test application to patients with mild and major neurocognitive disorders. The original MMSE is one of the most widely used screening tools for detecting the cognitive impairment, in clinical settings, but also in the field of neurocognitive research. Now, the practitioners and researchers are turning their attention to the MMSE-2. To enhance its clinical utility, the new instrument was enriched and reorganized in three versions (MMSE-2:BV, MMSE-2:SV and MMSE-2:EV), each with two forms: blue and red. The MMSE-2 was adapted and used successfully in Romania since 2013. The cases were selected from current practice, in order to cover vast and significant neurocognitive pathology: mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia, mixed dementia, Parkinson’s disease, conversion of the mild cognitive impairment into Alzheimer’s disease. The MMSE-2:EV version was used: it was applied one month after the initial assessment, three months after the first reevaluation and then every six months, alternating the blue and red forms. Correlated with age and educational level, the raw scores were converted in T scores and then, with the mean and the standard deviation, the z scores were calculated. The differences of raw scores between the evaluations were analyzed from the point of view of statistic signification, in order to establish the progression in time of the disease. The results indicated that the psycho-diagnostic approach for the evaluation of the cognitive impairment with MMSE-2:EV is safe and the application interval is optimal. The alternation of the forms prevents the learning phenomenon. The diagnostic accuracy and efficient therapeutic conduct derive from the usage of the national test norms. In clinical settings with a large flux of patients, the application of the MMSE-2:EV is a safe and fast psycho-diagnostic solution. The clinicians can draw objective decisions and for the patients: it doesn’t take too much time and energy, it doesn’t bother them and it doesn’t force them to travel frequently.

Keywords: MMSE-2, dementia, cognitive impairment, neuropsychology

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2119 Experimental Set-up for the Thermo-Hydric Study of a Wood Chips Bed Crossed by an Air Flow

Authors: Dimitri Bigot, Bruno Malet-Damour, Jérôme Vigneron

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Many studies have been made about using bio-based materials in buildings. The goal is to reduce its environmental footprint by analyzing its life cycle. This can lead to minimize the carbon emissions or energy consumption. A previous work proposed to numerically study the feasibility of using wood chips to regulate relative humidity inside a building. This has shown the capability of a wood chips bed to regulate humidity inside the building, to improve thermal comfort, and so potentially reduce building energy consumption. However, it also shown that some physical parameters of the wood chips must be identified to validate the proposed model and the associated results. This paper presents an experimental setup able to study such a wood chips bed with different solicitations. It consists of a simple duct filled with wood chips and crossed by an air flow with variable temperature and relative humidity. Its main objective is to study the thermal behavior of the wood chips bed by controlling temperature and relative humidity of the air that enters into it and by observing the same parameters at the output. First, the experimental set up is described according to previous results. A focus is made on the particular properties that have to be characterized. Then some case studies are presented in relation to the previous results in order to identify the key physical properties. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed technology is discussed, and some model validation paths are given.

Keywords: wood chips bed, experimental set-up, bio-based material, desiccant, relative humidity, water content, thermal behaviour, air treatment

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2118 Combining the Noble Values of Traditional Architecture on Modern Architecture

Authors: Dwi Retno Sri Ambarwati

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Recently, the traditional architecture were getting lost, replaced by modern architecture. The existence of many traditional houses often changing the function and change the values in an effort to adjust to the modern lifestyle, whereas the spiritual background of traditional architectural design is very specific and be the basis for consideration in the construction of the building, both in terms of determining the location of the building, the direction toward building, the spatial pattern and organization of space, zoning, hierarchical space, building form, ornamentation, the selection of building materials, and so on. The changes in function and form will transformed the spiritual values contained in it, because the architecture affects human behavior and reflects the culture. The traditional architecture views the architecture as a concept that has different tendencies in terms of orientation, shape, and attitude toward nature that tends to harmony with the social environment and local culture. The concept of the spirit of place made the architecture looks familiar, not arrogant and give a positive value to the surrounding environment. Every culture has a traditional architecture that full of spiritual values, although in the simplest form. Humans can learn about human values and local wisdom through the positive values that contained in traditional architecture, the desire to balance themselves with nature and the environment, not overbearing, strict adherence to the prevailing norms, openness in public life and intimacy family life that form a harmonious in life. The great and the wise value of traditional architecture should be revived in modern architecture that tends to ignore the spiritual values and more concerned with the functional and aesthetic pleasure, by combining the noble values of traditional architecture into modern architecture.

Keywords: architecture, combining noble values, local wisdom, traditional architecture

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2117 Critical Behaviour and Filed Dependence of Magnetic Entropy Change in K Doped Manganites Pr₀.₈Na₀.₂−ₓKₓMnO₃ (X = .10 And .15)

Authors: H. Ben Khlifa, W. Cheikhrouhou-Koubaa, A. Cheikhrouhou

Abstract:

The orthorhombic Pr₀.₈Na₀.₂−ₓKₓMnO₃ (x = 0.10 and 0.15) manganites are prepared by using the solid-state reaction at high temperatures. The critical exponents (β, γ, δ) are investigated through various techniques such as modified Arrott plot, Kouvel-Fisher method, and critical isotherm analysis based on the data of the magnetic measurements recorded around the Curie temperature. The critical exponents are derived from the magnetization data using the Kouvel-Fisher method, are found to be β = 0.32(4) and γ = 1.29(2) at TC ~ 123 K for x = 0.10 and β = 0.31(1) and γ = 1.25(2) at TC ~ 133 K for x = 0.15. The critical exponent values obtained for both samples are comparable to the values predicted by the 3D-Ising model and have also been verified by the scaling equation of state. Such results demonstrate the existence of ferromagnetic short-range order in our materials. The magnetic entropy changes of polycrystalline samples with a second-order phase transition are investigated. A large magnetic entropy change deduced from isothermal magnetization curves, is observed in our samples with a peak centered on their respective Curie temperatures (TC). The field dependence of the magnetic entropy changes are analyzed, which shows power-law dependence ΔSmax ≈ a(μ0 H)n at the transition temperature. The values of n obey the Curie Weiss law above the transition temperature. It is shown that for the investigated materials, the magnetic entropy change follows a master curve behavior. The rescaled magnetic entropy change curves for different applied fields collapse onto a single curve for both samples.

Keywords: manganites, critical exponents, magnetization, magnetocaloric, master curve

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2116 Short-Term Effects of Environmentally Relevant Concentrations of Organic UV Filters on Signal Crayfish Pacifastacus Leniusculus

Authors: Viktoriia Malinovska, Iryna Kuklina, Katerina Grabicova, Milos Buric, Pavel Kozak

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Personal care products, including organic UV filters, are considered emerging contaminants and their toxic effects have been a concern for the last decades. Sunscreen compounds continually enter the surface waters via sewage water treatment due to incomplete removal and during human recreational and laundry activities. Despite the environmental occurrence of organic UV filters in the freshwater environment, little is known about their impacts on aquatic biota. In this study, environmentally relevant concentrations of 5-Benzoyl-4-hydroxy-2-methoxybenzenesulfonic acid (BP-4, 2.5 µg/L) and 2-Phenylbenzimidazole-5-sulfonic acid (PBSA, 3 µg/L) were used to evaluate the cardiac and locomotor responses of signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus during a short time period. The effects of these compounds were evident in experimental animals. Specimens exposed to both tested compounds exhibited significantly bigger changes in distance moved and time movement than controls. Significant differences in changes in mean heart rate were detected in both PBSA and BP-4 experimental groups compared to control groups. Such behavioral and physiological alterations demonstrate the ecological effects of selected sunscreen compounds during a short time period. Since the evidence of the impacts of sunscreen compounds is scarce, the knowledge of how organic UV filters influence aquatic organisms is of key importance for future research.

Keywords: aquatic pollutants, behavior, freshwaters, heart rate, invertebrate

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2115 Factors Associated with Seroconversion of Oral Polio Vaccine among the Children under 5 Year in District Mirpurkhas, Pakistan 2015

Authors: Muhammad Asif Syed, Mirza Amir Baig

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Background: Pakistan is one of the two remaining polio-endemic countries, posing a significant public health challenge for global polio eradication due to failure to interrupt polio transmission. Country specific seroprevalence studies help in the evaluation of immunization program performance, the susceptibility of population against polio virus and identification of existing level of immunity with factors that affect seroconversion of the oral polio vaccine (OPV). The objective of the study was to find out factors associated with seroconversion of the OPV among children 6-59 months in Pakistan. Methods: A Hospital based cross-sectional serosurvey was undertaken in May-June 2015 at District Mirpurkhas, Sindh-Pakistan. Total 180 children aged 6–59 months were selected by using systematic random sampling from Muhammad Medical College Hospital, Mirpurkhas. Demographic, vaccination history and risk factors information were collected from the parents/guardian. Blood sample was collected and tested for the detection of poliovirus IgG antibodies by using ELISA Kit. The IgG titer <10 IU/ml, 50 to <150 IU/ml and >150 IU/ml was defined as negative, weak positive and positive immunity respectively. Pearson Chi-square test was used to determine the difference in seroprevalence in univariate analysis. Results: A total of 180 subjects were enrolled mean age was 23 months (7 -59 months). Off these 160 (89%) children were well and 18 (10%) partially protected against polio virus. Two (1.1%) children had no protection against polio virus as they had <10 IU/ml poliovirus IgG antibodies titer. Both negative cases belong from the female gender, age group 12-23 months, urban area and BMI <50 percentile. There was a difference between normal and the wasting children; it did attain statistical significance (χ2= 35.5, p=0.00). The difference in seroconversion was also observed in relation to the gender (χ2=6.23, p=0.04), duration of breast feeding (χ2=18.6, p=0.04), history of diarrheal disease before polio vaccine administration (χ2=7.7, p=0.02), and stunting (χ2= 114, p=0.00). Conclusion: This study demonstrated that near 90% children achieve seroconversion of OPV and well protected against polio virus. There is an urgent need to focus on factors like duration of breast feeding, diarrheal diseases and malnutrition (acute and chronic) among the children as an immunization strategy.

Keywords: seroconversion, oral polio vaccine, Polio, Pakistan

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2114 Early Education Assessment Methods

Authors: Anantdeep Kaur, Sharanjeet Singh

Abstract:

Early childhood education and assessment of children is a very essential tool that helps them in their growth and development. Techniques should be developed, and tools should be created in this field as it is a very important learning phase of life. Some information and sources are included for student assessment to provide a record of growth in all developmental areas cognitive, physical, Language, social-emotional, and approaches to learning. As an early childhood educator, it is very important to identify children who need special support and counseling to improve them because they are not mentally mature to discuss with the teacher their problems and needs. It is the duty and responsibility of the educator to assess children from their body language, behavior, and their routine actions about their skills that can be improved and which can take them forward in their future life. And also, children should be assessed with their weaker points because this is the right time to correct them, and they be improved with certain methods and tools by working on them constantly. Observing children regularly with all their facets of development, including intellectual, linguistic, social-emotional, and physical development. Every day, a physical education class should be regulated to check their physical growth activities, which can help to assess their physical activeness and motor abilities. When they are outside on the playgrounds, it is very important to instill environmental understanding among them so that they should know that they are very part of this nature, and it will help them to be one with the universe rather than feeling themselves individually. This technique assists them in living their childhood full of energy all the time. All types of assessments have unique purposes. It is important first to determine what should be measured, then find the program that best assesses those.

Keywords: special needs, motor ability, environmental understanding, physical development

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2113 Recycled Use of Solid Wastes in Building Material: A Review

Authors: Oriyomi M. Okeyinka, David A. Oloke, Jamal M. Khatib

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Large quantities of solid wastes being generated worldwide from sources such as household, domestic, industrial, commercial and construction demolition activities, leads to environmental concerns. Utilization of these wastes in making building construction materials can reduce the magnitude of the associated problems. When these waste products are used in place of other conventional materials, natural resources and energy are preserved and expensive and/or potentially harmful waste disposal is avoided. Recycling which is regarded as the third most preferred waste disposal option, with its numerous environmental benefits, stand as a viable option to offset the environmental impact associated with the construction industry. This paper reviews the results of laboratory tests and important research findings, and the potential of using these wastes in building construction materials with focus on sustainable development. Research gaps, which includes; the need to develop standard mix design for solid waste based building materials; the need to develop energy efficient method of processing solid waste use in concrete; the need to study the actual behavior or performance of such building materials in practical application and the limited real life application of such building materials have also been identified. Therefore a research is being proposed to develop an environmentally friendly, lightweight building block from recycled waste paper, without the use of cement, and with properties suitable for use as walling unit. This proposed research intends to incorporate, laboratory experimentation and modeling to address the identified research gaps.

Keywords: recycling, solid wastes, construction, building materials

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2112 Pricing Strategy in Marketing: Balancing Value and Profitability

Authors: Mohsen Akhlaghi, Tahereh Ebrahimi

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Pricing strategy is a vital component in achieving the balance between customer value and business profitability. The aim of this study is to provide insights into the factors, techniques, and approaches involved in pricing decisions. The study utilizes a descriptive approach to discuss various aspects of pricing strategy in marketing, drawing on concepts from market research, consumer psychology, competitive analysis, and adaptability. This approach presents a comprehensive view of pricing decisions. The result of this exploration is a framework that highlights key factors influencing pricing decisions. The study examines how factors such as market positioning, product differentiation, and brand image shape pricing strategies. Additionally, it emphasizes the role of consumer psychology in understanding price elasticity, perceived value, and price-quality associations that influence consumer behavior. Various pricing techniques, including charm pricing, prestige pricing, and bundle pricing, are mentioned as methods to enhance sales by influencing consumer perceptions. The study also underscores the importance of adaptability in responding to market dynamics through regular price monitoring, dynamic pricing, and promotional strategies. It recognizes the role of digital platforms in enabling personalized pricing and dynamic pricing models. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that effective pricing strategies strike a balance between customer value and business profitability, ultimately driving sales, enhancing brand perception, and fostering lasting customer relationships.

Keywords: business, customer benefits, marketing, pricing

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2111 Analytical Development of a Failure Limit and Iso-Uplift Curves for Eccentrically Loaded Shallow Foundations

Authors: N. Abbas, S. Lagomarsino, S. Cattari

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Examining existing experimental results for shallow rigid foundations subjected to vertical centric load (N), accompanied or not with a bending moment (M), two main non-linear mechanisms governing the cyclic ‎response of the soil-foundation system can be distinguished: foundation uplift and soil yielding. A soil-foundation failure limit, is defined as a domain of resistance in the two dimensional (2D) load space (N, M) inside of which lie all the admissible combinations of loads; these latter correspond to a pure elastic, non-linear elastic or plastic behavior of the soil-foundation system, while the points lying on the failure limit correspond to a combination of loads leading to a failure of the soil-foundation system. In this study, the proposed resistance domain is constructed analytically based on mechanics. Original elastic limit, uplift initiation ‎limit and iso-uplift limits are constructed inside this domain. These limits give a prediction ‎of the mechanisms activated for each combination of loads applied to the ‎foundation. A comparison of the proposed failure limit with experimental tests existing in the literature shows interesting results. Also, the developed uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift curves are confronted with others already proposed in the literature and widely used due to the absence of other alternatives, and remarkable differences are noted, showing evident errors in the past proposals and relevant accuracy for those given in the present work.

Keywords: foundation uplift, iso-uplift curves, resistance domain, soil yield

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2110 A Prediction Model Using the Price Cyclicality Function Optimized for Algorithmic Trading in Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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2109 A Concept Analysis of Self-Efficacy for Cancer Pain Management

Authors: Yi-Fung Lin, Yuan-Mei Liao

Abstract:

Background: Pain is common among patients with cancer and is also one of the most disturbing symptoms. As this suffering is subjective, if patients proactively participate in their pain self-management, pain could be alleviated effectively. However, not everyone can carry out self-management very well because human behavior is a product of the cognition process. In this process, we can see that "self-efficacy" plays an essential role in affecting human behaviors. Methods: We used the eight steps of concept analysis proposed by Walker and Avant to clarify the concept of “self-efficacy for cancer pain management.” A comprehensive literature review was conducted for relevant publications that were published during the period of 1977 to 2021. We used several keywords, including self-efficacy, self-management, concept analysis, conceptual framework, and cancer pain, to search the following databases: PubMed, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Embase. Results: We identified three defining attributes for the concept of self-efficacy for cancer pain management, including pain management abilities, confidence, and continuous pain monitoring, and recognized six skills related to pain management abilities: problem-solving, decision-making, resource utilization, forming partnerships between medical professionals and patients, planning actions, and self-regulation. Five antecedents for the concept of self-efficacy for cancer pain management were identified: pain experience, existing cancer pain, pain-related knowledge, a belief in pain management, and physical/mental state. Consequences related to self-efficacy for cancer pain management were achievement of pain self-management, well pain control, satisfying quality of life, and containing motivation. Conclusions: This analysis provides researchers with a clearer understanding of the concept of “self-efficacy for cancer pain management.” The findings presented here provide a foundation for future research and nursing interventions to enhance self-efficacy for cancer pain management.

Keywords: cancer pain, concept analysis, self-efficacy, self-management

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2108 ALDH1A1 as a Cancer Stem Cell Marker: Value of Immunohistochemical Expression in Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia, Prostatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia, and Prostatic Adenocarcinoma

Authors: H. M. Abdelmoneim, N. A. Babtain, A. S. Barhamain, A. Z. Kufiah, A. S. Malibari, S. F. Munassar, R. S. Rawa

Abstract:

Introduction: Prostate cancer is one of the most common causes of morbidity and mortality in men in developed countries. Cancer Stem Cells (CSCs) could be responsible for the progression and relapse of cancer. Therefore, CSCs markers could provide a prognostic strategy for human malignancies. Aldehyde dehydrogenase 1A1 (ALDH1A1) activity has been shown to be associated with tumorigenesis and proposed to represent a functional marker for tumor initiating cells in various tumor types including prostate cancer. Material & Methods: We analyzed the immunohistochemical expression of ALDH1A1 in benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) and prostatic adenocarcinoma and assessed their significant correlations in 50 TURP sections. They were microscopically interpreted and the results were correlated with histopathological types and tumor grade. Results: In different prostatic histopathological lesions we found that ALDH1A1 expression was low in BPH (13.3%) and PIN (6.7%) and then its expression increased with prostatic adenocarcinoma (40%), and this was statistically highly significant (P value = 0.02). However, in different grades of prostatic adenocarcinoma we found that the higher the Gleason grade the higher the expression for ALDH1A1 and this was statistically significant (P value = 0.02). We compared the expression of ALDH1A1 in PIN and prostatic adenocarcinoma. ALDH1A1 expression was decreased in PIN and highly expressed in prostatic adenocarcinoma and this was statistically significant (P value = 0.04). Conclusion: Increasing ALDH1A1 expression is correlated with aggressive behavior of the tumor. Immunohistochemical expression of ALDH1A1 might provide a potential approach to study tumorigenesis and progression of primary prostate carcinoma.

Keywords: ALDH1A1, BPH, PIN, prostatic adenocarcinoma

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2107 A Study of the British Security Disembedding Mechanism from a Comparative Political Perspective: Centering on the Bosnia War and the Russian-Ukrainian War

Authors: Yuhong Li, Luyu Mao

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Globalization has led to an increasingly interconnected international community and transmitted risks to every corner of the world through the chain of globalization. Security risks arising from international conflicts seem inescapable. Some countries have begun to build their capacity to deal with the globalization of security risks. They establish disembedding security mechanisms that transcend spatial or temporal boundaries and promote security cooperation with countries or regions that are not geographically close. This paper proposes four hypotheses of the phenomenon of "risks and security disembedding" in the post-Cold War international society and uses them to explain The United Kingdom’s behavior in the Bosnian War and the Russo-Ukrainian War. In the Bosnian War, confident in its own security and focused on maintaining European stability, The UK has therefore chosen to be cautious in its use of force in international frameworks such as the EU and to maintain a very limited intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina's affairs. In contrast, the failure of the EU and NATO’s security mechanism in the Russo-Ukrainian war heightened Britain's anxiety, and the volatile international situation led it to show a strong tendency towards security disembedding, choosing to conclude security communities with extra-territorial states. Analysis suggests that security mechanisms are also the starting point of conflict and that countries will rely more on disembedding mechanisms to counteract the global security risks. The current mechanism of security disembedding occurs as a result of the global proliferation of security perceptions as a symbolic token and the recognition of an expert system of security mechanisms formed by states with similar security perceptions.

Keywords: disembedding mechanism, bosnia war, the russian-ukrainian war, british security strategy

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2106 Self-rated Health as a Predictor of Hospitalizations in Patients with Bipolar Disorder and Major Depression: A Prospective Cohort Study of the United Kingdom Biobank

Authors: Haoyu Zhao, Qianshu Ma, Min Xie, Yunqi Huang, Yunjia Liu, Huan Song, Hongsheng Gui, Mingli Li, Qiang Wang

Abstract:

Rationale: Bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD), as severe chronic illnesses that restrict patients’ psychosocial functioning and reduce their quality of life, are both categorized into mood disorders. Emerging evidence has suggested that the reliability of self-rated health (SRH) was wellvalidated and that the risk of various health outcomes, including mortality and health care costs, could be predicted by SRH. Compared with other lengthy multi-item patient-reported outcomes (PRO) measures, SRH was proven to have a comparable predictive ability to predict mortality and healthcare utilization. However, to our knowledge, no study has been conducted to assess the association between SRH and hospitalization among people with mental disorders. Therefore, our study aims to determine the association between SRH and subsequent all-cause hospitalizations in patients with BD and MDD. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study on people with BD or MDD in the UK from 2006 to 2010 using UK Biobank touchscreen questionnaire data and linked administrative health databases. The association between SRH and 2-year all-cause hospitalizations was assessed using proportional hazard regression after adjustment for sociodemographics, lifestyle behaviors, previous hospitalization use, the Elixhauser comorbidity index, and environmental factors. Results: A total of 29,966 participants were identified, experiencing 10,279 hospitalization events. Among the cohort, the average age was 55.88 (SD 8.01) years, 64.02% were female, and 3,029 (10.11%), 15,972 (53.30%), 8,313 (27.74%), and 2,652 (8.85%) reported excellent, good, fair, and poor SRH, respectively. Among patients reporting poor SRH, 54.19% had a hospitalization event within 2 years compared with 22.65% for those having excellent SRH. In the adjusted analysis, patients with good, fair, and poor SRH had 1.31 (95% CI 1.21-1.42), 1.82 (95% CI 1.68-1.98), and 2.45 (95% CI 2.22, 2.70) higher hazards of hospitalization, respectively, than those with excellent SRH. Conclusion: SRH was independently associated with subsequent all-cause hospitalizations in patients with BD or MDD. This large study facilitates rapid interpretation of SRH values and underscores the need for proactive SRH screening in this population, which might inform resource allocation and enhance high-risk population detection.

Keywords: severe mental illnesses, hospitalization, risk prediction, patient-reported outcomes

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2105 Factors Affecting Slot Machine Performance in an Electronic Gaming Machine Facility

Authors: Etienne Provencal, David L. St-Pierre

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A facility exploiting only electronic gambling machines (EGMs) opened in 2007 in Quebec City, Canada under the name of Salons de Jeux du Québec (SdjQ). This facility is one of the first worldwide to rely on that business model. This paper models the performance of such EGMs. The interest from a managerial point of view is to identify the variables that can be controlled or influenced so that a comprehensive model can help improve the overall performance of the business. The EGM individual performance model contains eight different variables under study (Game Title, Progressive jackpot, Bonus Round, Minimum Coin-in, Maximum Coin-in, Denomination, Slant Top and Position). Using data from Quebec City’s SdjQ, a linear regression analysis explains 90.80% of the EGM performance. Moreover, results show a behavior slightly different than that of a casino. The addition of GameTitle as a factor to predict the EGM performance is one of the main contributions of this paper. The choice of the game (GameTitle) is very important. Games having better position do not have significantly better performance than games located elsewhere on the gaming floor. Progressive jackpots have a positive and significant effect on the individual performance of EGMs. The impact of BonusRound on the dependent variable is significant but negative. The effect of Denomination is significant but weakly negative. As expected, the Language of an EGMS does not impact its individual performance. This paper highlights some possible improvements by indicating which features are performing well. Recommendations are given to increase the performance of the EGMs performance.

Keywords: EGM, linear regression, model prediction, slot operations

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2104 Determination of Cyclic Citrullinated Peptide Antibodies on Quartz Crystal Microbalance Based Nanosensors

Authors: Y. Saylan, F. Yılmaz, A. Denizli

Abstract:

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) which is the most common autoimmune disorder of the body's own immune system attacking healthy cells. RA has both articular and systemic effects.Until now romatiod factor (RF) assay is used the most commonly diagnosed RA but it is not specific. Anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies are IgG autoantibodies which recognize citrullinated peptides and offer improved specificity in early diagnosis of RA compared to RF. Anti-CCP antibodies have specificity for the diagnosis of RA from 91 to 98% and the sensitivity rate of 41-68%. Molecularly imprinted polymers (MIP) are materials that are easy to prepare, less expensive, stable have a talent for molecular recognition and also can be manufactured in large quantities with good reproducibility. Molecular recognition-based adsorption techniques have received much attention in several fields because of their high selectivity for target molecules. Quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) is an effective, simple, inexpensive approach mass changes that can be converted into an electrical signal. The applications for specific determination of chemical substances or biomolecules, crystal electrodes, cover by the thin films for bind or adsorption of molecules. In this study, we have focused our attention on combining of molecular imprinting into nanofilms and QCM nanosensor approaches and producing QCM nanosensor for anti-CCP, chosen as a model protein, using anti-CCP imprinted nanofilms. For this aim, anti-CCP imprinted QCM nanosensor was characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy, contact angle measurements and ellipsometry. The non-imprinted nanosensor was also prepared to evaluate the selectivity of the imprinted nanosensor. Anti-CCP imprinted QCM nanosensor was tested for real-time detection of anti-CCP from aqueous solution. The kinetic and affinity studies were determined by using anti-CCP solutions with different concentrations. The responses related with mass shifts (Δm) and frequency shifts (Δf) were used to evaluate adsorption properties and to calculate binding (Ka) and dissociation (Kd) constants. To show the selectivity of the anti-CCP imprinted QCM nanosensor, competitive adsorption of anti-CCP and IgM was investigated.The results indicate that anti-CCP imprinted QCM nanosensor has a higher adsorption capabilities for anti-CCP than for IgM, due to selective cavities in the polymer structure.

Keywords: anti-CCP, molecular imprinting, nanosensor, rheumatoid arthritis, QCM

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2103 Time Effective Structural Frequency Response Testing with Oblique Impact

Authors: Khoo Shin Yee, Lian Yee Cheng, Ong Zhi Chao, Zubaidah Ismail, Siamak Noroozi

Abstract:

Structural frequency response testing is accurate in identifying the dynamic characteristic of a machinery structure. In practical perspective, conventional structural frequency response testing such as experimental modal analysis with impulse technique (also known as “impulse testing”) has limitation especially on its long acquisition time. The high acquisition time is mainly due to the redundancy procedure where the engineer has to repeatedly perform the test in 3 directions, namely the axial-, horizontal- and vertical-axis, in order to comprehensively define the dynamic behavior of a 3D structure. This is unfavorable to numerous industries where the downtime cost is high. This study proposes to reduce the testing time by using oblique impact. Theoretically, a single oblique impact can induce significant vibration responses and vibration modes in all the 3 directions. Hence, the acquisition time with the implementation of the oblique impulse technique can be reduced by a factor of three (i.e. for a 3D dynamic system). This study initiates an experimental investigation of impulse testing with oblique excitation. A motor-driven test rig has been used for the testing purpose. Its dynamic characteristic has been identified using the impulse testing with the conventional normal impact and the proposed oblique impact respectively. The results show that the proposed oblique impulse testing is able to obtain all the desired natural frequencies in all 3 directions and thus providing a feasible solution for a fast and time effective way of conducting the impulse testing.

Keywords: frequency response function, impact testing, modal analysis, oblique angle, oblique impact

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2102 A Comparison of Generation Dependent Brain Targeting Potential of(Poly Propylene Mine) Dendrimers

Authors: Nitin Dwivedi, Jigna Shah

Abstract:

Aim and objective of study: This article indicates a comparison among various generations of dendrimers, a dendrimer is a bioactive material has repetitively branched molecule and used for delivery of various therapeutic active agents. This debut report compares the effect various generations of PPI dendrimers for brain targeting and management of neurodegenerative disorders potential on single platform. This report involves the study of the various mechanism of synthesis ligand anchored various generations PPI dendrimers deliver the drug directly to the CNS, prove their effectiveness in the management of the various neurodegenerative disease. Material and Methods: The Memantine an anti-Alzheimer drug loaded in different generations (3.0G, 4.0G, and 5.0G) of PPI dendrimers which were synthesized were synthesized. The various studies investigate the effect of PPI dendrimers generation on different characteristic parameters i.e. synthesis procedure, drug loading, release behavior, hemolysis profile at different concentration, MRI study for determine the route drug from olfactory transfer, animal model study in vitro, as well as in vivo performance. The outcomes of the investigation indicate drug delivery benefit as well as superior biocompatibility of 4.0G PPI dendrimer over 3.0G and 5.0G dendrimer, respectively. Results and Conclusion: The above study indicate the superiority of in drug delivery system with maximum drug utilization and minimize the drug dose for neurodegenerative disorder over 5.0G PPI dendrimers. So, 4.0G PPI dendrimers are the safe formulations for the symptomatic treatment of the neurodegenerative disorder. The fifth-generation poly(propyleneimine) (PPI) dendrimers, inherent toxicity due to the presence of many peripheral cationic groups is the major issue that limits their applicability.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, generation, memantine, PPI

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2101 Inversion of PROSPECT+SAIL Model for Estimating Vegetation Parameters from Hyperspectral Measurements with Application to Drought-Induced Impacts Detection

Authors: Bagher Bayat, Wouter Verhoef, Behnaz Arabi, Christiaan Van der Tol

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The aim of this study was to follow the canopy reflectance patterns in response to soil water deficit and to detect trends of changes in biophysical and biochemical parameters of grass (Poa pratensis species). We used visual interpretation, imaging spectroscopy and radiative transfer model inversion to monitor the gradual manifestation of water stress effects in a laboratory setting. Plots of 21 cm x 14.5 cm surface area with Poa pratensis plants that formed a closed canopy were subjected to water stress for 50 days. In a regular weekly schedule, canopy reflectance was measured. In addition, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Chlorophyll (a+b) content (Cab) and Leaf Water Content (Cw) were measured at regular time intervals. The 1-D bidirectional canopy reflectance model SAIL, coupled with the leaf optical properties model PROSPECT, was inverted using hyperspectral measurements by means of an iterative optimization method to retrieve vegetation biophysical and biochemical parameters. The relationships between retrieved LAI, Cab, Cw, and Cs (Senescent material) with soil moisture content were established in two separated groups; stress and non-stressed. To differentiate the water stress condition from the non-stressed condition, a threshold was defined that was based on the laboratory produced Soil Water Characteristic (SWC) curve. All parameters retrieved by model inversion using canopy spectral data showed good correlation with soil water content in the water stress condition. These parameters co-varied with soil moisture content under the stress condition (Chl: R2= 0.91, Cw: R2= 0.97, Cs: R2= 0.88 and LAI: R2=0.48) at the canopy level. To validate the results, the relationship between vegetation parameters that were measured in the laboratory and soil moisture content was established. The results were totally in agreement with the modeling outputs and confirmed the results produced by radiative transfer model inversion and spectroscopy. Since water stress changes all parts of the spectrum, we concluded that analysis of the reflectance spectrum in the VIS-NIR-MIR region is a promising tool for monitoring water stress impacts on vegetation.

Keywords: hyperspectral remote sensing, model inversion, vegetation responses, water stress

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2100 Human Lens Metabolome: A Combined LC-MS and NMR Study

Authors: Vadim V. Yanshole, Lyudmila V. Yanshole, Alexey S. Kiryutin, Timofey D. Verkhovod, Yuri P. Tsentalovich

Abstract:

Cataract, or clouding of the eye lens, is the leading cause of vision impairment in the world. The lens tissue have very specific structure: It does not have vascular system, the lens proteins – crystallins – do not turnover throughout lifespan. The protection of lens proteins is provided by the metabolites which diffuse inside the lens from the aqueous humor or synthesized in the lens epithelial layer. Therefore, the study of changes in the metabolite composition of a cataractous lens as compared to a normal lens may elucidate the possible mechanisms of the cataract formation. Quantitative metabolomic profiles of normal and cataractous human lenses were obtained with the combined use of high-frequency nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and ion-pairing high-performance liquid chromatography with high-resolution mass-spectrometric detection (LC-MS) methods. The quantitative content of more than fifty metabolites has been determined in this work for normal aged and cataractous human lenses. The most abundant metabolites in the normal lens are myo-inositol, lactate, creatine, glutathione, glutamate, and glucose. For the majority of metabolites, their levels in the lens cortex and nucleus are similar, with the few exceptions including antioxidants and UV filters: The concentrations of glutathione, ascorbate and NAD in the lens nucleus decrease as compared to the cortex, while the levels of the secondary UV filters formed from primary UV filters in redox processes increase. That confirms that the lens core is metabolically inert, and the metabolic activity in the lens nucleus is mostly restricted by protection from the oxidative stress caused by UV irradiation, UV filter spontaneous decomposition, or other factors. It was found that the metabolomic composition of normal and age-matched cataractous human lenses differ significantly. The content of the most important metabolites – antioxidants, UV filters, and osmolytes – in the cataractous nucleus is at least ten fold lower than in the normal nucleus. One may suppose that the majority of these metabolites are synthesized in the lens epithelial layer, and that age-related cataractogenesis might originate from the dysfunction of the lens epithelial cells. Comprehensive quantitative metabolic profiles of the human eye lens have been acquired for the first time. The obtained data can be used for the analysis of changes in the lens chemical composition occurring with age and with the cataract development.

Keywords: cataract, lens, NMR, LC-MS, metabolome

Procedia PDF Downloads 324
2099 Formulation and in Vitro Evaluation of Cubosomes Containing CeO₂ Nanoparticles Loaded with Glatiramer Acetate Drug

Authors: Akbar Esmaeili, Zahra Salarieh

Abstract:

Cerium oxide nanoparticles (nano-series) are used as catalysts in industrial applications due to their free radical scavenging properties. Given that free radicals play an essential role in the pathology of many neurological diseases, we investigated the use of nanocrystals as a potential therapeutic agent for oxidative damage. This project synthesized nano-series from a new and environmentally friendly bio-pathway. Investigation of cerium nitrate in culture medium containing inoculated Lactobacillus acidophilus strain before incubation produces nano-series. Loaded with glatiramer acetate (GA) was formed by coating carboxymethylcellulose (CMC) and CeO2. FE-SEM analysis showed nano-series in the 9-11 nm range, spherical shape, and uniform particle size distribution. Cubic nanoparticles containing anti-multiple sclerosis (anti-Ms) treatment called GA were used. Glycerol monostearate (GMS) was used as a fat base, and evening primrose extract was used as an anti-inflammatory in cubosomes. Design-Expert® software was used to study the effects of different formulation factors on the properties of GAloaded cubic dispersions. Thirty GA-labeled cubic dispersions were prepared with GA-labeled carboxymethylcellulose and evaluated in vitro. The results showed an average nano-series size of 89.02 and a zeta potential of -49.9. Cubosomes containing GA-CMC/CeO2 showed a stable release profile for 180 min. The results showed that cubosomes containing GA-CMC/CeO2 could be a promising drug carrier with normal release behavior.

Keywords: ciochemistry, biotechnology, molecular, biology

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
2098 The Strategic Entering Time of a Commerce Platform

Authors: Chia-li Wang

Abstract:

The surge of service and commerce platforms, such as e-commerce and internet-of-things, have rapidly changed our lives. How to avoid the congestion and get the job done in the platform is now a common problem that many people encounter every day. This requires platform users to make decisions about when to enter the platform. To that end, we investigate the strategic entering time of a simple platform containing random numbers of buyers and sellers of some item. Upon a trade, the buyer and the seller gain respective profits, yet they pay the cost of waiting in the platform. To maximize their expected payoffs from trading, both buyers and sellers can choose their entering times. This creates an interesting and practical framework of a game that is played among buyers, among sellers, and between them. That is, a strategy employed by a player is not only against players of its type but also a response to those of the other type, and, thus, a strategy profile is composed of strategies of buyers and sellers. The players' best response, the Nash equilibrium (NE) strategy profile, is derived by a pair of differential equations, which, in turn, are used to establish its existence and uniqueness. More importantly, its structure sheds valuable insights of how the entering strategy of one side (buyers or sellers) is affected by the entering behavior of the other side. These results provide a base for the study of dynamic pricing for stochastic demand-supply imbalances. Finally, comparisons between the social welfares (the sum of the payoffs incurred by individual participants) obtained by the optimal strategy and by the NE strategy are conducted for showing the efficiency loss relative to the socially optimal solution. That should help to manage the platform better.

Keywords: double-sided queue, non-cooperative game, nash equilibrium, price of anarchy

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2097 An Operators’ Real-sense-based Fire Simulation for Human Factors Validation in Nuclear Power Plants

Authors: Sa-Kil Kim, Jang-Soo Lee

Abstract:

On March 31, 1993, a severe fire accident took place in a nuclear power plant located in Narora in North India. The event involved a major fire in the turbine building of NAPS unit-1 and resulted in a total loss of power to the unit for 17 hours. In addition, there was a heavy ingress of smoke in the control room, mainly through the intake of the ventilation system, forcing the operators to vacate the control room. The Narora fire accident provides us lessons indicating that operators could lose their mind and predictable behaviors during a fire. After the Fukushima accident, which resulted from a natural disaster, unanticipated external events are also required to be prepared and controlled for the ultimate safety of nuclear power plants. From last year, our research team has developed a test and evaluation facility that can simulate external events such as an earthquake and fire based on the operators’ real-sense. As one of the results of the project, we proposed a unit real-sense-based facility that can simulate fire events in a control room for utilizing a test-bed of human factor validation. The test-bed has the operator’s workstation shape and functions to simulate fire conditions such as smoke, heat, and auditory alarms in accordance with the prepared fire scenarios. Furthermore, the test-bed can be used for the operators’ training and experience.

Keywords: human behavior in fire, human factors validation, nuclear power plants, real-sense-based fire simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 283
2096 Comparative Analysis of Hybrid Dynamic Stabilization and Fusion for Degenerative Disease of the Lumbosacral Spine: Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Mohamed Bendoukha, Mustapha Mosbah

Abstract:

The Radiographic apparent assumed that the asymptomatic adjacent segment disease ASD is common after lumbar fusion, but this does not correlate with the functional outcomes while compensatory increased motion and stresses at the adjacent level of fusion is well-known to be associated to ASD. Newly developed, the hybrid stabilization are allocated to substituted for mostly the superior level of the fusion in an attempt to reduce the number of fusion levels and likelihood of degeneration process at the adjacent levels during the fusion with pedicle screws. Nevertheless, its biomechanical efficiencies still remain unknown and complications associated with failure of constructs such screw loosening and toggling should be elucidated In the current study, a finite element (FE) study was performed using a validated L2/S1 model subjected to a moment of 7.5 Nm and follower load of 400 N to assess the biomedical behavior of hybrid constructs based on dynamic topping off, semi rigid fusion. The residual range of motion (ROM), stress distribution at the fused and adjacent levels, stress distribution at the disc and the cage-endplate interface with respect to changes of bone quality were investigated. The hybrid instrumentation was associated with a reduction in compressive stresses compared to the fusion construct in the adjacent-level disc and showed high substantial axial force in the implant while fusion instrumentation increased the motion for both flexion and extension.

Keywords: intervertebral disc, lumbar spine, degenerative nuclesion, L4-L5, range of motion finite element model, hyperelasticy

Procedia PDF Downloads 185
2095 Fault Analysis of Induction Machine Using Finite Element Method (FEM)

Authors: Wiem Zaabi, Yemna Bensalem, Hafedh Trabelsi

Abstract:

The paper presents a finite element (FE) based efficient analysis procedure for induction machine (IM). The FE formulation approaches are proposed to achieve this goal: the magnetostatic and the non-linear transient time stepped formulations. The study based on finite element models offers much more information on the phenomena characterizing the operation of electrical machines than the classical analytical models. This explains the increase of the interest for the finite element investigations in electrical machines. Based on finite element models, this paper studies the influence of the stator and the rotor faults on the behavior of the IM. In this work, a simple dynamic model for an IM with inter-turn winding fault and a broken bar fault is presented. This fault model is used to study the IM under various fault conditions and severity. The simulation results are conducted to validate the fault model for different levels of fault severity. The comparison of the results obtained by simulation tests allowed verifying the precision of the proposed FEM model. This paper presents a technical method based on Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis of stator current and electromagnetic torque to detect the faults of broken rotor bar. The technique used and the obtained results show clearly the possibility of extracting signatures to detect and locate faults.

Keywords: Finite element Method (FEM), Induction motor (IM), short-circuit fault, broken rotor bar, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis

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2094 Effect of Varying Scaffold Architecture and Porosity of Calcium Alkali Orthophosphate Based-Scaffolds for Bone Tissue Engineering

Authors: D. Adel, F. Giacomini, R. Gildenhaar, G. Berger, C. Gomes, U. Linow, M. Hardt, B. Peleskae, J. Günster, A. Houshmand, M. Stiller, A. Rack, K. Ghaffar, A. Gamal, M. El Mofty, C. Knabe

Abstract:

The goal of this study was to develop 3D scaffolds from a silica containing calcium alkali orthophosphate utilizing two different fabrication processes, first a replica technique namely the Schwartzwalder Somers method (SSM), and second 3D printing, i.e. Rapid prototyping (RP). First, the mechanical and physical properties of the scaffolds (porosity, compressive strength, and solubility) was assessed and second their potential to facilitate homogenous colonization with osteogenic cells and extracellular bone matrix formation throughout the porous scaffold architecture. To this end murine and rat calavarie osteoblastic cells were dynamically seeded on both scaffold types under perfusion with concentrations of 3 million cells. The amount of cells and extracellular matrix as well as osteogenic marker expression was evaluated using hard tissue histology, immunohistochemistry, and histomorphometric analysis. Total porosities of both scaffolds were 86.9 % and 50% for SSM and RP respectively, Compressive strength values were 0.46 ± 0.2 MPa for SSM and 6.6± 0.8 MPa for RP. Regarding the cellular behavior, RP scaffolds displayed a higher cell and matrix percentage of 24.45%. Immunoscoring yielded strong osteocalcin expression of cells and matrix in RP scaffolds and a moderate expression in SSM scaffolds. 3D printed RP scaffolds displayed superior mechanical and biological properties compared to SSM. 3D printed scaffolds represent excellent candidates for bone tissue engineering.

Keywords: calcium alkali orthophosphate, extracellular matrix mineralization, osteoblast differentiation, rapid prototyping, scaffold

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
2093 Evaluation of Seismic Behavior of Steel Shear Wall with Opening with Hardener and Beam with Reduced Cross Section under Cycle Loading with Finite Element Analysis Method

Authors: Masoud Mahdavi

Abstract:

During an earthquake, the structure is subjected to seismic loads that cause tension in the members of the building. The use of energy dissipation elements in the structure reduces the percentage of seismic forces on the main members of the building (especially the columns). Steel plate shear wall, as one of the most widely used types of energy dissipation element, has evolved today, and regular drilling of its inner plate is one of the common cases. In the present study, using a finite element method, the shear wall of the steel plate is designed as a floor (with dimensions of 447 × 6/246 cm) with Abacus software and in three different modes on which a cyclic load has been applied. The steel shear wall has a horizontal element (beam) with a reduced beam section (RBS). The hole in the interior plate of the models is created in such a way that it has the process of increasing the area, which makes the effect of increasing the surface area of the hole on the seismic performance of the steel shear wall completely clear. In the end, it was found that with increasing the opening level in the steel shear wall (with reduced cross-section beam), total displacement and plastic strain indicators increased, structural capacity and total energy indicators decreased and the Mises Monson stress index did not change much.

Keywords: steel plate shear wall with opening, cyclic loading, reduced cross-section beam, finite element method, Abaqus software

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
2092 Isolation and Identification of Salmonella spp and Salmonella enteritidis, from Distributed Chicken Samples in the Tehran Province using Culture and PCR Techniques

Authors: Seyedeh Banafsheh Bagheri Marzouni, Sona Rostampour Yasouri

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Salmonella is one of the most important common pathogens between humans and animals worldwide. Globally, the prevalence of the disease in humans is due to the consumption of food contaminated with animal-derived Salmonella. These foods include eggs, red meat, chicken, and milk. Contamination of chicken and its products with Salmonella may occur at any stage of the chicken processing chain. Salmonella infection is usually not fatal. However, its occurrence is considered dangerous in some individuals, such as infants, children, the elderly, pregnant women, or individuals with weakened immune systems. If Salmonella infection enters the bloodstream, the possibility of contamination of tissues throughout the body will arise. Therefore, determining the potential risk of Salmonella at various stages is essential from the perspective of consumers and public health. The aim of this study is to isolate and identify Salmonella from chicken samples distributed in the Tehran market using the Gold standard culture method and PCR techniques based on specific genes, invA and ent. During the years 2022-2023, sampling was performed using swabs from the liver and intestinal contents of distributed chickens in the Tehran province, with a total of 120 samples taken under aseptic conditions. The samples were initially enriched in buffered peptone water (BPW) for pre-enrichment overnight. Then, the samples were incubated in selective enrichment media, including TT broth and RVS medium, at temperatures of 37°C and 42°C, respectively, for 18 to 24 hours. Organisms that grew in the liquid medium and produced turbidity were transferred to selective media (XLD and BGA) and incubated overnight at 37°C for isolation. Suspicious Salmonella colonies were selected for DNA extraction, and PCR technique was performed using specific primers that targeted the invA and ent genes in Salmonella. The results indicated that 94 samples were Salmonella using the PCR technique. Of these, 71 samples were positive based on the invA gene, and 23 samples were positive based on the ent gene. Although the culture technique is the Gold standard, PCR is a faster and more accurate method. Rapid detection through PCR can enable the identification of Salmonella contamination in food items and the implementation of necessary measures for disease control and prevention.

Keywords: culture, PCR, salmonella spp, salmonella enteritidis

Procedia PDF Downloads 73
2091 Electricity Load Modeling: An Application to Italian Market

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 395