Search results for: meteorological drought probabilities

Authors: Carolina S. Monteiro, Eugénia Pinto, Miguel A. Faria, Sara C. Cunha

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Rice (Oryza sativa) production plays a vital role in reducing hunger and poverty and assumes particular importance in low-income and developing countries. Rice is a sensitive plant, and production occurs strictly where suitable temperature and water conditions are found. Climatic changes are likely to affect worldwide, and some models have predicted increased temperatures, variations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and modification in precipitation patterns. Therefore, the ongoing climatic changes threaten rice production by increasing biotic and abiotic stress factors, and crops will grow in different environmental conditions in the following years. Around the world, the effects will be regional and can be detrimental or advantageous depending on the region. Mediterranean zones have been identified as possible hot spots, where dramatic temperature changes, modifications of CO₂ levels, and rainfall patterns are predicted. The actual estimated atmospheric CO₂ concentration is around 400 ppm, and it is predicted that it can reach up to 1000–1200 ppm, which can lead to a temperature increase of 2–4 °C. Alongside, rainfall patterns are also expected to change, with more extreme wet/dry episodes taking place. As a result, it could increase the migration of pathogens, and a shift in the occurrence of mycotoxins, concerning their types and concentrations, is expected. Mycotoxigenic spoilage fungi can colonize the crops and be present in all rice food chain supplies, especially Penicillium species, mainly resulting in ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination. In this scenario, the objectives of the present study are evaluating the effect of temperature (20 vs. 25 °C), CO₂ (400 vs. 1000 ppm), and water stress (0.93 vs 0.95 water activity) on growth and OTA production by a Penicillium nordicum strain in vitro on rice-based media and when colonizing layers of raw rice. Results demonstrate the effect of temperature, CO₂ and drought on the OTA production in a rice-based environment, thus contributing to the development of mycotoxins predictive models in climate change scenarios. As a result, improving mycotoxins' surveillance and monitoring systems, whose occurrence can be more frequent due to climatic changes, seems relevant and necessary. The development of prediction models for hazard contaminants presents in foods highly sensitive to climatic changes, such as mycotoxins, in the highly probable new agricultural scenarios is of paramount importance.

Keywords: climate changes, ochratoxin A, penicillium, rice

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Authors: Jacques M. Berner, Monja Gerber, Gillian L. Maggs-Kolling, Stuart J. Piketh

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The enigmatic melon species, Acanthosicyos horridus Welw. ex Hook. f., locally known as !nara, is endemic to the hyper-arid Namib Desert, where it thrives in sandy dune areas and dry river banks. The Namib Desert is characterized by extreme weather conditions which include high temperatures, very low rainfall, and extremely dry air. Plant and animals that have made the Namib Dessert their home are dependent on non-rainfall water inputs, like fog, dew and water vapor, for survival. Fog is believed to be the most important non-rainfall water input for most of the coastal Namib Desert and is a life line to many Namib plants and animals. It is commonly assumed that the !nara plant is adapted and dependent upon coastal fog events. The !nara plant shares many comparable adaptive features with other organisms that are known to exploit fog as a source of moisture. These include groove-like structures on the stems and the cone-like structures of thorns. These structures are believed to be the driving forces behind directional water flow that allow plants to take advantage of fog events. The !nara-fog interaction was investigated in this study to determine the dependence of !nara on these fog events, as it would illustrate strategies to benefit from non-rainfall water inputs. The direct water uptake capacity of !nara shoots was investigated through absorption tests. Furthermore, the movement and behavior of fluorescent water droplets on a !nara stem were investigated through time-lapse macrophotography. The shoot water potential was measured to investigate the effect of fog on the water status of !nara stems. These tests were used to determine whether the morphology of !nara has evolved to exploit fog as a non-rainfall water input and whether the !nara plant has adapted physiologically in response to fog. Chlorophyll a fluorescence was used to compare the photochemical efficiency of !nara plants on days with fog events to that on non-foggy days. The results indicate that !nara plants do have the ability to take advantage of fog events as commonly believed. However, the !nara plant did not exhibit visible signs of drought stress and this, together with the strong shoot water potential, indicates that these plants are reliant on permanent underground water sources. Chlorophyll a fluorescence data indicated that temperature stress and wind were some of the main abiotic factors influencing the plants’ overall vitality.

Keywords: Acanthosicyos horridus, chlorophyll a fluorescence, fog, foliar absorption, !nara

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Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the post mortem interval or PMI. Three days after the death, insect evidence is often the most accurate and sometimes the only method of determining elapsed time since death. This work presents the estimation of the PMI in an experiment to test the reliability of the accumulated degree days (ADD) method and the application of this method in a real case. The study was conducted at the Laboratory of Entomology at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie, Algeria. The domestic rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus L. was selected as the animal model. On 08th July 2012, the animal was killed. Larvae were collected and raised to adulthood. Estimation of oviposition time was calculated by summing up average daily temperatures minus minimum development temperature (also specific to each species). When the sum is reached, it corresponds to the oviposition day. Weather data were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. After rearing was accomplished, three species emerged: Lucilia sericata, Chrysomya albiceps, and Sarcophaga africa. For Chrysomya albiceps species, a cumulation of 186°C is necessary. The emergence of adults occured on 22nd July 2012. A value of 193.4°C is reached on 9th August 2012. Lucilia sericata species require a cumulation of 207°C. The emergence of adults occurred on 23rd, July 2012. A value of 211.35°C is reached on 9th August 2012. We should also consider that oviposition may occur more than 12 hours after death. Thus, the obtained PMI is in agreement with the actual time of death. We illustrate the use of this method during the investigation of a case of a decaying human body found on 03rd March 2015 in Bechar, South West of Algerian desert. Maggots were collected and sent to the Laboratory of Entomology. Lucilia sericata adults were identified on 24th March 2015 after emergence. A sum of 211.6°C was reached on 1st March 2015 which corresponds to the estimated day of oviposition. Therefore, the estimated date of death is 1st March 2015 ± 24 hours. The estimated PMI by accumulated degree days (ADD) method seems to be very precise. Entomological evidence should always be used in homicide investigations when the time of death cannot be determined by other methods.

Keywords: forensic entomology, accumulated degree days, postmortem interval, diptera, Algeria

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Authors: Aswini M. S.

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Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most significant vegetable crops in terms of its economic benefits. Both fresh and processed tomatoes are consumed. Tomatoes have a limited genetic base, which makes breeding extremely challenging. Plant breeding has become much simpler and more effective with genome editing tools of CRISPR and CRISPR-associated 9 protein (CRISPR/Cas9), which address the problems with traditional breeding, chemical/physical mutagenesis, and transgenics. With the use of CRISPR/Cas9, a number of tomato traits have been functionally distinguished and edited. These traits include plant architecture as well as flower characters (leaf, flower, male sterility, and parthenocarpy), fruit ripening, quality and nutrition (lycopene, carotenoid, GABA, TSS, and shelf-life), disease resistance (late blight, TYLCV, and powdery mildew), tolerance to abiotic stress (heat, drought, and salinity) and resistance to herbicides. This study explores the potential of CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing for enhancing yield in tomato plants. The study utilized the CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing technology to functionally edit various traits in tomatoes. The de novo domestication of elite features from wild cousins to cultivated tomatoes and vice versa has been demonstrated by the introgression of CRISPR/Cas9. The CycB (Lycopene beta someri) gene-mediated Cas9 editing increased the lycopene content in tomato. Also, Cas9-mediated editing of the AGL6 (Agamous-like 6) gene resulted in parthenocarpic fruit development under heat-stress conditions. The advent of CRISPR/Cas has rendered it possible to use digital resources for single guide RNA design and multiplexing, cloning (such as Golden Gate cloning, GoldenBraid, etc.), creating robust CRISPR/Cas constructs, and implementing effective transformation protocols like the Agrobacterium and DNA free protoplast method for Cas9-gRNAs ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) complex. Additionally, homologous recombination (HR)-based gene knock-in (HKI) via geminivirus replicon and base/prime editing (Target-AID technology) remains possible. Hence, CRISPR/Cas facilitates fast and efficient breeding in the improvement of tomatoes.

Keywords: CRISPR-Cas, biotic and abiotic stress, flower and fruit traits, genome editing, polygenic trait, tomato and trait introgression

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

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Authors: Temple Probyne Abali

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Port Harcourt, Rivers State in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is bedeviled by the phenomenon of climatechange, posing threat to food security and livelihood. This study examined a 4 decadel (1980-2020) trend of climate change as well as its socio-economic impact on food security in the region. Furthermore, to achieve sustainable food security and livelihood amidst the phenomenon, the study adopted the World Bank Assisted Third National Fadama Development Programme approach. The data source for climate change involved secondary data from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET). Consequently, the results for climate change over the 4decade period were displayed in tables, charts and maps for the expected changes. Data sources on socio-economic impact of food security and livelihood were acquired through questionnairedesign. A purposive random sampling technique was used in selecting 5 coastal communities inthe region known for viable economic potentials for agricultural development and the resultswere analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) technique of the World Bank for needs assessment wasadopted in selecting 5 agricultural sub-project proposals/activities based on groups’ commoneconomic interest from a total of 1,000 farmers each drawn from the 5 communities of differentage groups including men, women, youths and the vulnerable. Based on the farmers’ sub-projectinterests, the various groups’ Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT), Problem Listing Matrix, Skill Gap Analysis as well as EIAson their sub-project proposals/activities were analyzed with substantialMonitoring and Evaluation (M & E), using the Specific, Measurable, Attribute, Reliable and Time bound (SMART)approach. Based on the findings from the PRA technique, the farmers recorded considerableincreaseinincomeofover200%withinthe5yearprojectplan(2008-2013).Thestudyrecommends capacity building and advisory services on this PRA innovation. By so doing, there would be a sustainable increase in agricultural production and assured food security in an environmental friendly manner, in line with the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).

Keywords: climate change, food security, fadama, world bank, agriculture, sdgs

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Authors: Nji Queenta Ngum, Mwanza Mulunda

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Introduction Most African research reports on the frequent aflatoxin contamination of various foodstuffs, with researchers rarely specifying which of the Aspergillus species are present in these commodities. Numerous research works provide evidence of the ability of fungi to grow, thrive, and interact with other crop species and focus on the fact that these processes are largely affected by climatic variables. South Africa is a water-stressed country with high spatio-temporal rainfall variability; moreover, temperatures have been projected to rise at a rate twice the global rate. This weather pattern change may lead to crop stress encouraging mold contamination with subsequent mycotoxin production. In this study, the biodiversity and distribution of Aspergillus species with their corresponding toxins in maize from six distinct maize producing regions with different weather patterns in South Africa were investigated. Materials And Methods By applying cultural and molecular methods, a total of 1028 maize samples from six distinct agro-climatic regions were examined for contamination by the Aspergillus species while the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was applied to analyse the level of contamination by aflatoxins. Results About 30% of the overall maize samples were contaminated by at least one Aspergillus species. Less than 30% (28.95%) of the 228 isolates subjected to the aflatoxigenic test was found to possess at least one of the aflatoxin biosynthetic genes. Furthermore, almost 20% were found to be contaminated with aflatoxins, with mean total aflatoxin concentration levels of 64.17 ppb. Amongst the contaminated samples, 59.02% had mean total aflatoxin concentration levels above the SA regulatory limit of 20ppb for animals and 10 for human consumption. Conclusion In this study, climate variables (rainfall reduction) were found to significantly (p<0.001) influence the occurrence of the Aspergillus species (especially Aspergillus fumigatus) and the production of aflatoxin in South Africa commercial maize by maize variety, year of cultivation as well as the agro-climatic region in which the maize is cultivated. This included, amongst others, a reduction in the average annual rainfall of the preceding year to about 21.27 mm, and, as opposed to other regions whose average maximum rainfall ranged between 37.24 – 44.1 mm, resulted in a significant increase in the aflatoxin contamination of maize.

Keywords: aspergillus species, aflatoxins, diversity, drought, food safety, HPLC and PCR techniques

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Authors: Wei Ting Han, Shiann-Far Kung

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In the early time, most of the arable land is dry farming and using rainfall as water sources for irrigation in Tainan county. After the Chia-nan Irrigation System (CIS) was completed in 1930, Chia-nan Plain was more efficient allocation of limited water sources or irrigation, because of the benefit from irrigation systems, drainage systems, and land improvement projects. The problem of long-term drought, flood and salt damage in the past were also improved by CIS. The canal greatly improved the paddy field area and agricultural output, Tainan county has become one of the important agricultural producing areas in Taiwan. With the development of water conservancy facilities, affected by national policies and other factors, many agricultural communities and settlements are formed indirectly, also promoted the change of settlement patterns and internal structures. With the development of historical geographic information system (HGIS), Academia Sinica developed the WebGIS theme with the century old maps of Taiwan which is the most complete historical map of database in Taiwan. It can be used to overlay historical figures of different periods, present the timeline of the settlement change, also grasp the changes in the natural environment or social sciences and humanities, and the changes in the settlements presented by the visualized areas. This study will explore the historical development and spatial characteristics of the settlements in various areas of Tainan County. Using of large-scale areas to explore the settlement changes and spatial patterns of the entire county, through the dynamic time and space evolution from Japanese rule to the present day. Then, digitizing the settlement of different periods to perform overlay analysis by using Taiwan historical topographic maps in 1904, 1921, 1956 and 1989. Moreover, using document analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of regional environment and settlement structure. In addition, the comparison analysis method is used to classify the spatial characteristics and differences between the settlements. Exploring the influence of external environments in different time and space backgrounds, such as government policies, major construction, and industrial development. This paper helps to understand the evolution of the settlement space and the internal structural changes in Tainan County.

Keywords: historical geographic information system, overlay analysis, settlement change, Tainan County

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Authors: Jigg Pelayo, Ricardo Villar, Einstine Opiso

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The rampant and unintended spread of urban areas resulted in increasing artificial component features in the land cover types of the countryside and bringing forth the urban heat island (UHI). This paved the way to wide range of negative influences on the human health and environment which commonly relates to air pollution, drought, higher energy demand, and water shortage. Land cover type also plays a relevant role in the process of understanding the interaction between ground surfaces with the local temperature. At the moment, the depiction of the land surface temperature (LST) at city/municipality scale particularly in certain areas of Misamis Oriental, Philippines is inadequate as support to efficient mitigations and adaptations of the surface urban heat island (SUHI). Thus, this study purposely attempts to provide application on the Landsat 8 satellite data and low density Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) products in mapping out quality automated LST model and crop-level land cover classification in a local scale, through theoretical and algorithm based approach utilizing the principle of data analysis subjected to multi-dimensional image object model. The paper also aims to explore the relationship between the derived LST and land cover classification. The results of the presented model showed the ability of comprehensive data analysis and GIS functionalities with the integration of object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach on automating complex maps production processes with considerable efficiency and high accuracy. The findings may potentially lead to expanded investigation of temporal dynamics of land surface UHI. It is worthwhile to note that the environmental significance of these interactions through combined application of remote sensing, geographic information tools, mathematical morphology and data analysis can provide microclimate perception, awareness and improved decision-making for land use planning and characterization at local and neighborhood scale. As a result, it can aid in facilitating problem identification, support mitigations and adaptations more efficiently.

Keywords: LiDAR, OBIA, remote sensing, local scale

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Authors: Tirtha Raj Adhikari, Lochan Prasad Devkota

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This research studied the hydrological regime of three glacierized river basins in Khumbu, Langtang and Annapurna regions of Nepal using the Hydraologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavde (HBV), HVB-light 3.0 model. Future scenario of discharge is also studied using downscaled climate data derived from statistical downscaling method. General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data from Coupled Global Circulation Model 3 (CGCM3) was used for the climate projection, under A2 and A1B SRES scenarios. In addition, the observed historical temperature, precipitation and discharge data were collected from 14 different hydro-metrological locations for the implementation of this study, which include watershed and hydro-meteorological characteristics, trends analysis and water balance computation. The simulated precipitation and temperature were corrected for bias before implementing in the HVB-light 3.0 conceptual rainfall-runoff model to predict the flow regime, in which Groups Algorithms Programming (GAP) optimization approach and then calibration were used to obtain several parameter sets which were finally reproduced as observed stream flow. Except in summer, the analysis showed that the increasing trends in annual as well as seasonal precipitations during the period 2001 - 2060 for both A2 and A1B scenarios over three basins under investigation. In these river basins, the model projected warmer days in every seasons of entire period from 2001 to 2060 for both A1B and A2 scenarios. These warming trends are higher in maximum than in minimum temperatures throughout the year, indicating increasing trend of daily temperature range due to recent global warming phenomenon. Furthermore, there are decreasing trends in summer discharge in Langtang Khola (Langtang region) which is increasing in Modi Khola (Annapurna region) as well as Dudh Koshi (Khumbu region) river basin. The flow regime is more pronounced during later parts of the future decades than during earlier parts in all basins. The annual water surplus of 1419 mm, 177 mm and 49 mm are observed in Annapurna, Langtang and Khumbu region, respectively.

Keywords: temperature, precipitation, water discharge, water balance, global warming

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Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

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Indian Ocean and the Nile River play significant roles in shaping the hydrological and ecological systems of the regions they traverse. This study explores the interlinkages and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River, highlighting key factors such as water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity. The Indian Ocean serves as a major source of moisture for the Nile River, contributing to its annual flood cycle and sustaining the river's ecosystem. The Indian Ocean's monsoon winds influence the amount of rainfall received in East Africa, which directly impacts the Nile's water levels. These monsoonal patterns create a vital connection between the Indian Ocean and the Nile, affecting agricultural productivity, freshwater availability, and overall river health. The Indian Ocean also influences the nutrient levels in the Nile River. Coastal upwelling driven by oceanic currents brings nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface. These nutrients are transported by ocean currents towards the Red Sea and subsequently enter the Nile. This influx of nutrients supports the growth of plankton, which forms the basis of the river's food web and sustains various aquatic species. Additionally, the Indian Ocean's climate patterns, such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events, exert influence on the Nile River basin. El Niño, for example, can result in drought conditions, reduced precipitation, and altered river flows, impacting agricultural activities and water resource management along the Nile. The Indian Ocean Dipole events can influence the rainfall distribution in East Africa, further impacting the Nile's water levels and ecosystem dynamics. The Indian Ocean's biodiversity is interconnected with the Nile River's ecological system. Many species that inhabit the Indian Ocean, such as migratory birds and marine mammals, migrate along the Nile River basin, utilizing its resources for feeding and breeding purposes. The health of the Indian Ocean's ecosystem thus indirectly affects the biodiversity and ecological balance of the Nile River. Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Nile River. Its influence on water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity highlights the complex interdependencies between these two important water bodies. Understanding the interconnectedness and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile is essential for effective water resource management and conservation efforts in the region.

Keywords: water, management, environment, planning

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Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: Ana Paula Soares, Alexandrina Lages, Helena Oliveira, Francisco-Javier Gutiérrez-Domínguez, Marisa Lousada

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From an early age, exposure to a spoken language allows us to implicitly capture the structure underlying the succession of the speech sounds in that language and to segment it into meaningful units (words). Statistical learning (SL), i.e., the ability to pick up patterns in the sensory environment even without intention or consciousness of doing it, is thus assumed to play a central role in the acquisition of the rule-governed aspects of language and possibly to lie behind the language difficulties exhibited by children with development language disorder (DLD). The research conducted so far has, however, led to inconsistent results, which might stem from the behavioral tasks used to test SL. In a classic SL experiment, participants are first exposed to a continuous stream (e.g., syllables) in which, unbeknownst to the participants, stimuli are grouped into triplets that always appear together in the stream (e.g., ‘tokibu’, ‘tipolu’), with no pauses between each other (e.g., ‘tokibutipolugopilatokibu’) and without any information regarding the task or the stimuli. Following exposure, SL is assessed by asking participants to discriminate between triplets previously presented (‘tokibu’) from new sequences never presented together during exposure (‘kipopi’), i.e., to perform a two-alternative-forced-choice (2-AFC) task. Despite the widespread use of the 2-AFC to test SL, it has come under increasing criticism as it is an offline post-learning task that only assesses the result of the learning that had occurred during the previous exposure phase and that might be affected by other factors beyond the computation of regularities embedded in the input, typically the likelihood two syllables occurring together, a statistic known as transitional probability (TP). One solution to overcome these limitations is to assess SL as exposure to the stream unfolds using online techniques such as event-related potentials (ERP) that is highly sensitive to the time-course of the learning in the brain. Here we collected ERPs to examine the neurofunctional correlates of SL in preschool children with DLD, and chronological-age typical language development (TLD) controls who were exposed to an auditory stream in which eight three-syllable nonsense words, four of which presenting high-TPs and the other four low-TPs, to further analyze whether the ability of DLD and TLD children to extract-word-like units from the steam was modulated by words’ predictability. Moreover, to ascertain if the previous knowledge of the to-be-learned-regularities affected the neural responses to high- and low-TP words, children performed the auditory SL task, firstly, under implicit, and, subsequently, under explicit conditions. Although behavioral evidence of SL was not obtained in either group, the neural responses elicited during the exposure phases of the SL tasks differentiated children with DLD from children with TLD. Specifically, the results indicated that only children from the TDL group showed neural evidence of SL, particularly in the SL task performed under explicit conditions, firstly, for the low-TP, and, subsequently, for the high-TP ‘words’. Taken together, these findings support the view that children with DLD showed deficits in the extraction of the regularities embedded in the auditory input which might underlie the language difficulties.

Keywords: development language disorder, statistical learning, transitional probabilities, word segmentation

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Authors: Sarkawt M. Hama, Paul S. Monks, Rebecca L. Cordell

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Within the Joaquin project, ultrafine particles (UFP) are continuously measured at one urban background site in Leicester. The main aims are to examine the temporal and seasonal variations in UFP number concentration and size distribution in an urban environment, and to try to assess the added value of continuous UFP measurements. In addition, relations of UFP with more commonly monitored pollutants such as black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM2.5), and the lung deposited surface area(LDSA) were evaluated. The effects of meteorological conditions, particularly wind speed and direction, and also temperature on the observed distribution of ultrafine particles will be detailed. The study presents the results from an experimental investigation into the particle number concentration size distribution of UFP, BC, and NOX with measurements taken at the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) monitoring site in Leicester. The monitoring was performed as part of the EU project JOAQUIN (Joint Air Quality Initiative) supported by the INTERREG IVB NWE program. The total number concentrations (TNC) were measured by a water-based condensation particle counter (W-CPC) (TSI model 3783), the particle number concentrations (PNC) and size distributions were measured by an ultrafine particle monitor (UFP TSI model 3031), the BC by MAAP (Thermo-5012), the NOX by NO-NO2-NOx monitor (Thermos Scientific 42i), and a Nanoparticle Surface Area Monitor (NSAM, TSI 3550) was used to measure the LDSA (reported as μm2 cm−3) corresponding to the alveolar region of the lung between November 2013 and November 2015. The average concentrations of particle number concentrations were observed in summer with lower absolute values of PNC than in winter might be related mainly to particles directly emitted by traffic and to the more favorable conditions of atmospheric dispersion. Results showed a traffic-related diurnal variation of UFP, BC, NOX and LDSA with clear morning and evening rush hour peaks on weekdays, only an evening peak at the weekends. Correlation coefficients were calculated between UFP and other pollutants (BC and NOX). The highest correlation between them was found in winter months. Overall, the results support the notion that local traffic emissions were a major contributor of the atmospheric particles pollution and a clear seasonal pattern was found, with higher values during the cold season.

Keywords: size distribution, traffic emissions, UFP, urban area

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Authors: Nurten Akgun, Dilum Dissanayake, Neil Thorpe, Margaret C. Bell

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Cycling has gained a great attention with comparable speeds, low cost, health benefits and reducing the impact on the environment. The main challenge associated with cycling is the provision of safety for the people choosing to cycle as their main means of transport. From the road safety point of view, cyclists are considered as vulnerable road users because they are at higher risk of serious casualty in the urban network but more specifically at roundabouts. This research addresses the development of an enhanced mathematical model by including a broad spectrum of casualty related variables. These variables were geometric design measures (approach number of lanes and entry path radius), speed limit, meteorological condition variables (light, weather, road surface) and socio-demographic characteristics (age and gender), as well as contributory factors. Contributory factors included driver’s behavior related variables such as failed to look properly, sudden braking, a vehicle passing too close to a cyclist, junction overshot, failed to judge other person’s path, restart moving off at the junction, poor turn or manoeuvre and disobeyed give-way. Tyne and Wear in the UK were selected as a case study area. The cyclist casualty data was obtained from UK STATS19 National dataset. The reference categories for the regression model were set to slight and serious cyclist casualties. Therefore, binary logistic regression was applied. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that approach number of lanes was statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence. A higher number of approach lanes increased the probability of severity of cyclist casualty occurrence. In addition, sudden braking statistically significantly increased the cyclist casualty severity at the 95% level of confidence. The result concluded that cyclist casualty severity was highly related to approach a number of lanes and sudden braking. Further research should be carried out an in-depth analysis to explore connectivity of sudden braking and approach number of lanes in order to investigate the driver’s behavior at approach locations. The output of this research will inform investment in measure to improve the safety of cyclists at roundabouts.

Keywords: binary logistic regression, casualty severity, cyclist safety, roundabout

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Authors: Priyanka Chaudhary, M. Rizwan

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This paper presents a grid synchronization technique based on adaptive notch filter for SPV (Solar Photovoltaic) system along with MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) techniques. An efficient grid synchronization technique offers proficient detection of various components of grid signal like phase and frequency. It also acts as a barrier for harmonics and other disturbances in grid signal. A reference phase signal synchronized with the grid voltage is provided by the grid synchronization technique to standardize the system with grid codes and power quality standards. Hence, grid synchronization unit plays important role for grid connected SPV systems. As the output of the PV array is fluctuating in nature with the meteorological parameters like irradiance, temperature, wind etc. In order to maintain a constant DC voltage at VSC (Voltage Source Converter) input, MPPT control is required to track the maximum power point from PV array. In this work, a variable step size P & O (Perturb and Observe) MPPT technique with DC/DC boost converter has been used at first stage of the system. This algorithm divides the dPpv/dVpv curve of PV panel into three separate zones i.e. zone 0, zone 1 and zone 2. A fine value of tracking step size is used in zone 0 while zone 1 and zone 2 requires a large value of step size in order to obtain a high tracking speed. Further, adaptive notch filter based control technique is proposed for VSC in PV generation system. Adaptive notch filter (ANF) approach is used to synchronize the interfaced PV system with grid to maintain the amplitude, phase and frequency parameters as well as power quality improvement. This technique offers the compensation of harmonics current and reactive power with both linear and nonlinear loads. To maintain constant DC link voltage a PI controller is also implemented and presented in this paper. The complete system has been designed, developed and simulated using SimPower System and Simulink toolbox of MATLAB. The performance analysis of three phase grid connected solar photovoltaic system has been carried out on the basis of various parameters like PV output power, PV voltage, PV current, DC link voltage, PCC (Point of Common Coupling) voltage, grid voltage, grid current, voltage source converter current, power supplied by the voltage source converter etc. The results obtained from the proposed system are found satisfactory.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic systems, MPPT, voltage source converter, grid synchronization technique

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Authors: Govinda Pathak

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In modern agriculture, the sustainable enhancement of crop productivity while minimizing environmental impacts remains a paramount challenge. Plant Growth Promoting Rhizobacteria (PGPR) have emerged as a promising solution to address this challenge. The rhizosphere, the dynamic interface between plant roots and soil, hosts intricate microbial interactions crucial for plant health and nutrient acquisition. PGPR, a subset of rhizospheric microorganisms, exhibit multifaceted beneficial effects on plants. Their abilities to stimulate growth, confer stress tolerance, enhance nutrient availability, and suppress pathogens make them invaluable contributors to sustainable agriculture. This work examines the pivotal role of free living nitrogen fixer in optimizing agricultural practices. We delve into the intricate mechanisms underlying PGPR-mediated plant-microbe interactions, encompassing quorum sensing, root exudate modulation, and signaling molecule exchange. Furthermore, we explore the diverse strategies employed by PGPR to enhance plant resilience against abiotic stresses such as drought, salinity, and metal toxicity. Additionally, we highlight the role of PGPR in augmenting nutrient acquisition and soil fertility through mechanisms such as nitrogen fixation, phosphorus solubilization, and mineral mobilization. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of PGPR in minimizing the reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, thereby contributing to environmentally friendly agriculture. However, harnessing the full potential of PGPR requires a comprehensive understanding of their interactions with host plants and the surrounding microbial community. We also address challenges associated with PGPR application, including formulation, compatibility, and field efficacy. As the quest for sustainable agriculture intensifies, harnessing the remarkable attributes of PGPR offers a holistic approach to propel agricultural productivity while maintaining ecological balance. This work underscores the promising prospect of free living nitrogen fixer as a panacea for addressing critical agricultural challenges regarding chemical urea in an era of sustainable and resilient food production.

Keywords: PGPR, nitrogen fixer, quorum sensing, Rhizobacteria, pesticides

Procedia PDF Downloads 34

Authors: Abdul Mutolib, Yonariza Mahdi, Hanung Ismono

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The existence of forests is essential to human lives on earth, but its existence is threatened by forest deforestations and degradations. Forest deforestations and degradations in Indonesia is not only caused by the illegal activity by the company or the like, even today many cases in Indonesia forest damage caused by human activities, one of which cut down forests for agriculture and plantations. In West Sumatra, community forest management are the result supported the enactment of customary land tenure, including ownership of land within the forest. Indigenous forest management have a positive benefit, which gives the community an opportunity to get livelihood and income, but if forest management practices by indigenous peoples is not done wisely, then there is the destruction of forests and cause adverse effects on the environment. Based on intensive field works in Dhamasraya District employing some data collection techniques such as key informant interviews, household surveys, secondary data analysis, and satellite image interpretation. This paper answers the following questions; how the impact of forest management by local communities on forest conditions (foccus in Forest Production and Limited Production Forest) and knowledge of the local community on the benefits of forests. The site is a Nagari Bonjol, Dharmasraya District, because most of the forest in Dharmasraya located and owned by Nagari Bonjol community. The result shows that there is damage to forests in Dharmasraya because of forest management activities by local communities. Damage to the forest area of 33,500 ha in Dharmasraya because forests are converted into oil palm and rubber plantations with monocultures. As a result of the destruction of forests, water resources are also diminishing, and the community has experienced a drought in the dry season due to forest cut down and replaced by oil palm plantations. Knowledge of the local community on the benefits of low forest, the people considered that the forest does not have better benefits and cut down and converted into oil palm or rubber plantations. Local people do not understand the benefits of ecological and environmental services that forests. From the phenomena in Dharmasraya on land ownership, need to educate the local community about the importance of protecting the forest, and need a strategy to integrate forests management to keep the ecological functions that resemble the woods and counts the economic benefits for the welfare of local communities. One alternative that can be taken is to use forest management models agroforestry smallholders in accordance with the characteristics of the local community who still consider the economic, social and environmental.

Keywords: community, customary land, farmer plantations, and forests

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Belachew Gebrewold

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The Horn of Africa is marred by complex and systematic internal and external political, economic and social-cultural causes of conflict that result in internal displacement and migration. This paper engages with them and shows how such a study can help us to understand migration, both in this region and more generally. The conflict has occurred within states, between states, among proxies, between armies. Human insecurities as a result of the state collapse of Somalia, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the whole region, recurrent drought affecting the livelihoods of subsistence farmers as well as nomads, exposure to hunger, environmental degradation, youth unemployment, rapid growth of slums around big cities, and political repression (especially in Eritrea) have been driving various segments of the regional population into regional and international migration. Eritrea has been going through a brutal dictatorship which pushes many Eritreans to flee their country and be exposed to human trafficking, torture, detention, and agony on their way to Europe mainly through Egypt, Libya and Israel. Similarly, Somalia has been devastated since 1991 by unending civil war, state collapse, and radical Islamists. There are some important aspects to highlight in the conflict-migration nexus in the Horn of Africa: first, the main push factor for the Somalis and Eritreans to leave their countries and risk their lives is the physical insecurity they have been facing in their countries. Secondly, as a result of the conflict the economic infrastructure is massively destroyed. Investment is rare; job opportunities are out of sight. Thirdly, in such a grim situation the politically and economically induced decision to migrate is a household decision, not only an individual decision. Based on this third point this research study took place in the Horn of Africa between 2014 and 2016 during different occasions. The main objective of the research was to understanding how the increasing migration is affecting the socio-economic and socio-political environment, and conversely how the socio-economic and socio-political environments are increasing migration decisions; and whether and how these decisions are individual or family decisions. The main finding is the higher the human insecurity, the higher the family decision; the lower the human insecurity, the higher the individual decision. These findings apply not only to the Eritrean, Somali migrants but also to Ethiopian migrants. But the general impacts of migration on sending countries’ human security is quite mixed and complex.

Keywords: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Horn of Africa, insecurity, migration, Somalia

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Faezeh Mosallat, Eric L. Bibeau, Tarek El Mekkawy

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Availability of a wide variety of renewable resources, such as large reserves of hydro, biomass, solar and wind in Canada provides significant potential to improve the sustainability of energy uses. As buildings represent a considerable portion of energy use in Canada, application of distributed solar energy systems for heating and cooling may increase the amount of renewable energy use. Parabolic solar trough systems have seen limited deployments in cold northern climates as they are more suitable for electricity production in southern latitudes. Heat production by concentrating solar rays using parabolic troughs can overcome the poor efficiencies of flat panels and evacuated tubes in cold climates. A numerical dynamic model is developed to simulate an installed parabolic solar trough facility in Winnipeg. The results of the numerical model are validated using the experimental data obtained from this system. The model is developed in Simulink and will be utilized to simulate a tri-generation system for heating, cooling and electricity generation in remote northern communities. The main objective of this simulation is to obtain operational data of solar troughs in cold climates as this is lacking in the literature. In this paper, the validated Simulink model is applied to simulate a solar assisted absorption cooling system along with electricity generation using organic Rankine cycle (ORC) and thermal storage. A control strategy is employed to distribute the heated oil from solar collectors among the above three systems considering the temperature requirements. This modeling provides dynamic performance results using real time minutely meteorological data which are collected at the same location the solar system is installed. This is a big step ahead of the current models by accurately calculating the available solar energy at each time step considering the solar radiation fluctuations due to passing clouds. The solar absorption cooling is modeled to use the generated heat from the solar trough system and provide cooling in summer for a greenhouse which is located next to the solar field. A natural gas water heater provides the required excess heat for the absorption cooling at low or no solar radiation periods. The results of the simulation are presented for a summer month in Winnipeg which includes the amount of generated electric power from ORC and contribution of solar energy in the cooling load provision

Keywords: absorption cooling, parabolic solar trough, remote community, validated model

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Tassadit Issaadi Hamitouche, Nicolas Gillard, Jean Petit, Valerie Lavaste, Celine Mayousse

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Water is a fundamental resource for the industry. It is taken from the environment either from municipal distribution networks or from various natural water sources such as the sea, ocean, rivers, aquifers, etc. Once used, water is discharged into the environment, reprocessed at the plant or treatment plants. These withdrawals and discharges have a direct impact on natural water resources. These impacts can apply to the quantity of water available, the quality of the water used, or to impacts that are more complex to measure and less direct, such as the health of the population downstream from the watercourse, for example. Based on the analysis of data (meteorological, river characteristics, physicochemical substances), we wish to predict water stress episodes and anticipate prefectoral decrees, which can impact the performance of plants and propose improvement solutions, help industrialists in their choice of location for a new plant, visualize possible interactions between companies to optimize exchanges and encourage the pooling of water treatment solutions, and set up circular economies around the issue of water. The development of a system for the collection, processing, and use of data related to water resources requires the functional constraints specific to the latter to be made explicit. Thus the system will have to be able to store a large amount of data from sensors (which is the main type of data in plants and their environment). In addition, manufacturers need to have 'near-real-time' processing of information in order to be able to make the best decisions (to be rapidly notified of an event that would have a significant impact on water resources). Finally, the visualization of data must be adapted to its temporal and geographical dimensions. In this study, we set up an infrastructure centered on the TICK application stack (for Telegraf, InfluxDB, Chronograf, and Kapacitor), which is a set of loosely coupled but tightly integrated open source projects designed to manage huge amounts of time-stamped information. The software architecture is coupled with the cross-industry standard process for data mining (CRISP-DM) data mining methodology. The robust architecture and the methodology used have demonstrated their effectiveness on the study case of learning the level of a river with a 7-day horizon. The management of water and the activities within the plants -which depend on this resource- should be considerably improved thanks, on the one hand, to the learning that allows the anticipation of periods of water stress, and on the other hand, to the information system that is able to warn decision-makers with alerts created from the formalization of prefectoral decrees.

Keywords: data mining, industry, machine Learning, shortage, water resources

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Alberto A. Escobar Puentes, G. Adriana García, Luis F. Cuevas G., Alejandro P. Zepeda, Fernando B. Martínez, Susana A. Rincón

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Snack foods are usually classified as ‘junk food’ because have little nutritional value. However, due to the increase on the demand and third generation (3G) snacks market, low price and easy to prepare, can be considered as carriers of compounds with certain nutritional value. Resistant starch (RS) is classified as a prebiotic fiber it helps to control metabolic problems and has anti-cancer colon properties. The active compound can be developed by chemical cross-linking of starch with phosphate salts to obtain a type 4 resistant starch (RS4). The chemical reaction can be achieved by extrusion, a process widely used to produce snack foods, since it's versatile and a low-cost procedure. Starch is the major ingredient for snacks 3G manufacture, and the seeds of sorghum contain high levels of starch (70%), the most drought-tolerant gluten-free cereal. Due to this, the aim of this research was to develop a snack (3G), with RS4 in optimal conditions extrusion (previously determined) from sorghum starch, and carry on a sensory, chemically and structural characterization. A sample (200 g) of sorghum starch was conditioned with 4% sodium trimetaphosphate/ sodium tripolyphosphate (99:1) and set to 28.5% of moisture content. Then, the sample was processed in a single screw extruder equipped with rectangular die. The inlet, transport and output temperatures were 60°C, 134°C and 70°C, respectively. The resulting pellets were expanded in a microwave oven. The expansion index (EI), penetration force (PF) and sensory analysis were evaluated in the expanded pellets. The pellets were milled to obtain flour and RS content, degree of substitution (DS), and percentage of phosphorus (% P) were measured. Spectroscopy [Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR)], X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis were performed in order to determine structural changes after the process. The results in 3G were as follows: RS, 17.14 ± 0.29%; EI, 5.66 ± 0.35 and PF, 5.73 ± 0.15 (N). Groups of phosphate were identified in the starch molecule by FTIR: DS, 0.024 ± 0.003 and %P, 0.35±0.15 [values permitted as food additives (<4 %P)]. In this work an increase of the gelatinization temperature after the crosslinking of starch was detected; the loss of granular and vapor bubbles after expansion were observed by SEM; By using X-ray diffraction, loss of crystallinity was observed after extrusion process. Finally, a snack (3G) was obtained with RS4 developed by extrusion technology. The sorghum starch was efficient for snack 3G production.

Keywords: extrusion, resistant starch, snack (3G), Sorghum

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

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Authors: Mathias U. Bonet, Pericles Pilidis, Georgios Doulgeris

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An aero-derivative marine Gas Turbine engine model is simulated to be installed as the main propulsion prime mover to power a cruise ship which is designed and routed to transport intending Muslim pilgrims for the annual hajj pilgrimage from Nigeria to the Islamic port city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. A performance assessment of the Gas Turbine engine has been conducted by examining the effect of varying aerodynamic and hydrodynamic conditions encountered at various geographical locations along the scheduled transit route during the voyage. The investigation focuses on the overall behavior of the Gas Turbine engine employed to power and propel the ship as it operates under ideal and adverse conditions to be encountered during calm and rough weather according to the different seasons of the year under which the voyage may be undertaken. The variation of engine performance under varying operating conditions has been considered as a very important economic issue by determining the time the speed by which the journey is completed as well as the quantity of fuel required for undertaking the voyage. The assessment also focuses on the increased resistance caused by the fouling of the submerged portion of the ship hull surface with its resultant effect on the power output of the engine as well as the overall performance of the propulsion system. Daily ambient temperature levels were obtained by accessing data from the UK Meteorological Office while the varying degree of turbulence along the transit route and according to the Beaufort scale were also obtained as major input variables of the investigation. By assuming the ship to be navigating the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea during winter, spring and summer seasons, the performance modeling and simulation was accomplished through the use of an integrated Gas Turbine performance simulation code known as ‘Turbomach’ along with a Matlab generated code named ‘Poseidon’, all of which have been developed at the Power and Propulsion Department of Cranfield University. As a case study, the results of the various assumptions have further revealed that the marine Gas Turbine is a reliable and available alternative to the conventional marine propulsion prime movers that have dominated the maritime industry before now. The techno-economic and environmental assessment of this type of propulsion prime mover has enabled the determination of the effect of changes in weather and sea conditions on the ship speed as well as trip time and the quantity of fuel required to be burned throughout the voyage.

Keywords: ambient temperature, hull fouling, marine gas turbine, performance, propulsion, voyage

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Kazi Ashief Mahmood

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Geographically Bangladesh is located in a natural hazard prone area. Compared to the rest of the areas, the coastal sub-districts are more vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, the hydro-geophysical reality of the sub-districts predominantly determines their contexts of vulnerability and its nature differs accordingly. Intriguingly enough, the poorest of the areas appear to be the most cornered among the different vulnerable sectors. Among of these deprived segments; however, the women, the persons with disability and the minorities are generally more vulnerable and they face a high risk of marginalized. The most threatening hydro-geophysical climate vulnerability have been created by prolonged dry season as observed at Koyra Upazilla in Khulna districts and Shyamnagar in Satkhira districts. The prolonged dry season creates severe surface salinity by which farmers cannot produce or use their to cultivate. The absence of land-based production and employment in the area has led to severe food insecurity. As a result, farmers tend to change their livelihood option and many of them are forced to migrate to the other areas of the country in search of livelihood. Besides salinity intrusion, water logging, drought and different climate change induced hazards are endangering safe drinking water sources and putting small-holders out of agriculture-based livelihoods in the Koyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla. A sizeable fraction of small-holders are still trying to hold on to their small scale shrimp production, despite being under pressure to sell off their cultivating lands to their influential shrimp merchants. While their desperate effort to take advantage of the increasing salinity is somewhat successful, their families still face a greater risk of health hazards owing to the lack of safe drinking water. Unless the issues of salinity in drinking water cannot be redressed, the state of the affected people will be in great jeopardy. Most of the inhabitants of oKyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla are living under the poverty line. Thus, poverty is a major factor that intensifies the vulnerability caused by hydro-geophysical climatic conditions. The government and different NGOs are trying to improve the present scenario by implementing different disaster risk reduction projects along with poverty reduction for community empowerment.

Keywords: assessment, climate change, climate induced hazards, coastal zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Ana Julia C. Kfouri

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A prerequisite of any building design is to provide security to the users, taking the climate and its physical and physical-geometrical variables into account. It is also important to highlight the relevance of the right material elements, which arise between the person and the agent, and must provide improved thermal comfort conditions and low environmental impact. Furthermore, technology is constantly advancing, as well as computational simulations for projects, and they should be used to develop sustainable building and to provide higher quality of life for its users. In relation to comfort, the more satisfied the building users are, the better their intellectual performance will be. Based on that, the study of thermal comfort in educational buildings is of relative relevance, since the thermal characteristics in these environments are of vital importance to all users. Moreover, educational buildings are large constructions and when they are poorly planned and executed they have negative impacts to the surrounding environment, as well as to the user satisfaction, throughout its whole life cycle. In this line of thought, to evaluate university classroom conditions, it was accomplished a detailed case study on the thermal comfort situation at Federal University of Parana (UFPR). The main goal of the study is to perform a thermal analysis in three classrooms at UFPR, in order to address the subjective and physical variables that influence thermal comfort inside the classroom. For the assessment of the subjective components, a questionnaire was applied in order to evaluate the reference for the local thermal conditions. Regarding the physical variables, it was carried out on-site measurements, which consist of performing measurements of air temperature and air humidity, both inside and outside the building, as well as meteorological variables, such as wind speed and direction, solar radiation and rainfall, collected from a weather station. Then, a computer simulation based on results from the EnergyPlus software to reproduce air temperature and air humidity values of the three classrooms studied was conducted. The EnergyPlus outputs were analyzed and compared with the on-site measurement results to be possible to come out with a conclusion related to the local thermal conditions. The methodological approach included in the study allowed a distinct perspective in an educational building to better understand the classroom thermal performance, as well as the reason of such behavior. Finally, the study induces a reflection about the importance of thermal comfort for educational buildings and propose thermal alternatives for future projects, as well as a discussion about the significant impact of using computer simulation on engineering solutions, in order to improve the thermal performance of UFPR’s buildings.

Keywords: computer simulation, educational buildings, EnergyPlus, humidity, temperature, thermal comfort

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Deepak Kumar, Ravi Rajwanshi, Mohd. Aslam Yusuf, Nisha Kant Pandey, Preeti Singh, Mukesh Saxena, Neera Bhalla Sarin

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Global issues are leading to concerns over food security. These include climate change, urbanization, increase in population subsequently leading to greater energy and water demand. Futuristic approach for crop improvement involves gene pyramiding for agronomic traits that empower the plants to withstand multiple stresses. In an earlier study from the laboratory, the efficacy of overexpressing γ-tocopherol methyl transferase (γ-TMT) gene from the vitamin E biosynthetic pathway has been shown to result in six-fold increase of the most biologically active form, the α-tocopherol in Brassica juncea which resulted in alleviation of salt, heavy metal and osmoticum induced stress by the transgenic plants. The glyoxalase I (gly I) gene from the glyoxalase pathway has also been earlier shown by us to impart tolerance against multiple abioitc stresses by detoxification of the cytotoxic compound methylglyoxal in Brassica juncea. Recently, both the transgenes were pyramided in Brassica juncea lines through sexual crosses involving two stable Brassica juncea lines overexpressing γ-TMT and gly I genes respectively. The transgene integration was confirmed by PCR analysis and their mRNA expression was evident by RT-PCR analysis. Preliminary physiological investigations showed ~55% increased seed germination under 200 mM NaCl stress in the pyramided line and 81% higher seed germination under 200 mM mannitol stress as compared to the WT control plants. The pyramided lines also retained more chlorophyll content when the leaf discs were floated on NaCl (200, 400 and 600 mM) or mannitol (200, 400 and 600 mM) compared to the WT control plants. These plants had higher Relative Water Content and greater solute accumulation under stress compared to the parental plants having γ-TMT or the glyI gene respectively. The studies revealed the synergy of two components from different metabolic pathways in enhancing stress hardiness of the transgenic B. juncea plants. It was concluded that pyramiding of genes (γ-TMT and glyI) from diverse pathways can lead to enhanced tolerance to salt and mannitol stress (simulating drought conditions). This strategy can prove useful in enhancing the crop yields under various abiotic stresses.

Keywords: abiotic stress, brassica juncea, glyoxalase I, α-tocopherol

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh, Hsiao-Yi Lin

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This study aims to determine the impact of the disclosure of flood potential map on housing prices. The disclosure is supposed to mitigate the market failure by reducing information asymmetry. On the other hand, opponents argue that the official disclosure of simulated results will only create unnecessary disturbances on the housing market. This study identifies the impact of the disclosure of the flood potential map by comparing the hedonic price of flood potential before and after the disclosure. The flood potential map used in this study is published by Taipei municipal government in 2015, which is a result of a comprehensive simulation based on geographical, hydrological, and meteorological factors. The residential property sales data of 2013 to 2016 is used in this study, which is collected from the actual sales price registration system by the Department of Land Administration (DLA). The result shows that the impact of flood potential on residential real estate market is statistically significant both before and after the disclosure. But the trend is clearer after the disclosure, suggesting that the disclosure does have an impact on the market. Also, the result shows that the impact of flood potential differs by the severity and frequency of precipitation. The negative impact for a relatively mild, high frequency flood potential is stronger than that for a heavy, low possibility flood potential. The result indicates that home buyers are of more concern to the frequency, than the intensity of flood. Another contribution of this study is in the methodological perspective. The classic hedonic price analysis with OLS regression suffers from two spatial problems: the endogeneity problem caused by omitted spatial-related variables, and the heterogeneity concern to the presumption that regression coefficients are spatially constant. These two problems are seldom considered in a single model. This study tries to deal with the endogeneity and heterogeneity problem together by combining the spatial fixed-effect model and geographically weighted regression (GWR). A series of literature indicates that the hedonic price of certain environmental assets varies spatially by applying GWR. Since the endogeneity problem is usually not considered in typical GWR models, it is arguable that the omitted spatial-related variables might bias the result of GWR models. By combing the spatial fixed-effect model and GWR, this study concludes that the effect of flood potential map is highly sensitive by location, even after controlling for the spatial autocorrelation at the same time. The main policy application of this result is that it is improper to determine the potential benefit of flood prevention policy by simply multiplying the hedonic price of flood risk by the number of houses. The effect of flood prevention might vary dramatically by location.

Keywords: flood potential, hedonic price analysis, endogeneity, heterogeneity, geographically-weighted regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 270