Search results for: disaster risk management

Authors: Sejin Jung, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim

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Assessing the impact of climate change requires the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for simulation of climate under the influence of different factors, including topography. This study decreases climate change scenarios from the 13 global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks in studies using climate change scenarios of the CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject (CMIP5), and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. One of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates high applicability of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). Furthermore, the study classifies climatic zones by applying the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate (D) that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate (C). The coefficient of variation (CVs) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean peninsula, and accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted. This research was supported by a grant (MOIS-DP-2015-05) of Disaster Prediction and Mitigation Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

Keywords: MME, North Korea, Koppen–Geiger, climatic zones, coefficient of variation, CV

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Authors: Silvia Rahmita

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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.

Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

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Authors: Seyedmohammad Mousavian, Hanlu Fan, Quingliang Tang

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Climate change is emerging as a severe threat to our society, so businesses are expected to take actions to mitigate carbon emissions. However, the actions to be taken depend on managers’ perceptions of climate change risks. Yet, there is scant research on this issue, and understanding of the determinants of corporate perceptions of climate change is extremely limited. The purpose of this study is to close this gap by examining the relationship between perceptions of climate risk and firm-level and country-level factors. In this study, climate change risk captures physical, regulatory, and other risks, and we use data from European companies that participated in CDP from 2010 to 2017. This study reveals those perceptions of climate change risk are significantly positively associated with the environmental, social, and governance score, firm size, and membership in a carbon-intensive sector. In addition, we find that managers in firms operating in a geographic area that is sensitive to the consequences of global warming are more likely to perceive and formally recognize carbon-related risks in their CDP reports.

Keywords: carbon actions, CDP, climate change risk, risk perception

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Authors: Yahya N. Alfraidi, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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Climate change risk impacts are one of the most challenging aspects that faces the built environment now and the near future. The impacts of climate change on buildings are considered in four different dimensions: physical, economic, social, and management. For each of these, the risks are discussed as they arise from various effects linked to climate change, including windstorms, precipitation, temperature change, flooding, and sea-level rise. For example, building assets in cities will be exposed to extreme hot summer days and nights due to the urban heat island effect and pollution. Buildings also could be vulnerable to water, electricity, gas, etc., scarcity. Building materials, fabric and systems could also be stressed by the emerging climate risks. More impotently the building users might experience extreme internal and extern comfort conditions leading to lower productivity, wellbeing and health problems. Thus, the main aim of this paper to document the emerging risks from climate change on building assets. An in-depth discussion on the consequences of these climate change risk is provided. It is expected that the outcome of this research will be a set of risk design indicators for developing and procuring resilient building assets.

Keywords: climate change, risks of climate change, risks on building from climate change, buildings

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Nopadol Burananuth

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The purposes of this research paper were to study the relationship between the economic factor and political factor, the relationship between political and economic factor and social factor, and the effects of economic factor, political factor, and social factor to the people’s perception about ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). A total of 400 samples were selected from four sub-districts from Arunyaprathet District, Srakaow Province. Data analysis method included multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that political factor depended on trade cooperation, transportation cooperation, and communication cooperation. Social factor was depended on disaster protection, terrorism protection, and international relations. In addition, the people’s perception of the AEC depended on disaster perception, terrorism protection, international relations, transportation cooperation, communication cooperation, interdependence, and labor movement.

Keywords: economic factors, perception, political factors, social factors

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejía, Jenny Paola Forero Pachón, Luis Carlos Gómez Flórez

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Action research is a qualitative research methodology, which leads the researcher to delve into the problems of a community in order to understand its needs in depth and finally, to propose actions that lead to a change of social paradigm. Although this methodology had its beginnings in the human sciences, it has attracted increasing interest and acceptance in the field of information systems research since the 1990s. The countless possibilities offered nowadays by the use of Information Technologies (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities have meant a change of social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. According to this, governments, large corporations, small entrepreneurs and in general, organizations of all kinds are using IT to virtualize their processes, taking them from the physical environment to the digital environment. However, there is a potential risk for organizations related with exposing valuable information without an appropriate framework for protecting it. This paper shows progress in the development of a methodological design to manage the information security risks associated with the IT-based processes virtualization, by applying the principles of the action research methodology and it is the result of a systematic review of the scientific literature. This design consists of seven fundamental stages. These are distributed in the three stages described in the action research methodology: 1) Observe, 2) Analyze and 3) Take actions. Finally, this paper aims to offer an alternative tool to traditional information security management methodologies with a view to being applied specifically in the planning stage of IT-based process virtualization in order to foresee risks and to establish security controls before formulating IT solutions in any type of organization.

Keywords: action research, information security, information technology, methodological design, process virtualization, risk management

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Authors: Bharat Sapkota

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Nepal is the one of the victim country of climate change. Decreasing snow line, sometimes higher and sometime non-rain fall are common phenomena in hill area. Natural flood disaster and drought is also common every year in certain place of the country. So this paper analyze the effect of climate and natural water sources for sustainability of water sanitation and hygiene of Tanahun district. It is one of the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project Western Nepal Phase-II (RWSSP-WN Phase-II) project district out of 14 project districts of western and mid-western Nepal. RWSSP-WN II is a bilateral development cooperation of governments of Nepal and Finland. Big investment is still going on in water sanitation and hygiene sector but sustainability is still a challenge throughout the country. So RWSSP-WN has started the strengthen of the capacity of local Governments to deliver services in water supply, sanitation and hygiene and its sustainability through the implementation of cross cutting approach of climate change and disaster risk reduction. The study shows that the average yield in 685 natural point sources were around 0.045 l/s in 2014 but it was twice as high in 2004 i.e. 0.09 l/s. The maximum measured yield in 2014 was 1.87 l/s, whereas, the maximum yield was 3 l/s in 2004. Likewise, spring source mean and maximum yield measured in 2014 were 0.16 l/s and 3.33 l/s respectively, whereas, mean and maximum yields in 2004 were 0.204 l/s and 3 l/s respectively. Small streams average yield measured in 2014 was 0.32 l/s with the maximum of around 4.99 l/s. In 2004, mean and maximum yields of streams were 0.485 l/s and 5 l/s respectively. The overall climate between years 2002 to 2013 and measured yield data between 2004 and 2014 shows climate as one of the causes of water source decline. The temperature is rising with pace of 0.041°C per year and rainfall is decreased by 16.8 mm/year. The Khosla’s empirical formula shows decrease of 1.7 cm/year in runoff. At present sustainability of water, sanitation and hygiene is more challenge due to sources decreasing in the district. Sanitation and hygiene total behavior change and watershed conservation as well as design and implementation of recharge pound construction are the way forward of sustainability of water, sanitation and hygiene.

Keywords: water sanitation, hygiene, sustainability, climate change

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Authors: Atef Mohamed Kamel Ahmed

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House crows (Corvus splendens) have become well-established in Ismailia Governorate, Egypt, where they pose several and serious impacts on native biodiversity, ecosystems and humans health. However, there is a lack of literature on the status and effects of invasive birds in Egypt. Over the past 10 years in Ismailia, House crow have increased at a rate approaching (60000 birds)15% per annum; if this were allowed to continue, the population now 10909 birds and will exceed more by 2013, probably accompanied by an increase in geographical distribution in all Suez canal regions and an exacerbation of the problems caused. Population control is recommended, involving improvements in urban hygiene and the capture of adult crows using stupefying baits. Suitable baits and stupefacient doses were identified and these should be used annually, just before the breeding season. Control should be accompanied by studies of relevant aspects of the biology of house crows in Ismailia Governorate.

Keywords: environmental impact t, non-native invasive species, House crow birds, risk management, Ismailia-Egypt

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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Authors: Ran Etgar, Sarit Freund

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Agile project management (APM) has been developed originally for software development project. Construction projects seemed to be more apt to traditional water-fall approach than to APM. However, Construction project suffers from similar problems that necessitated the invention of APM, mainly the need to break down the project structure to small increments, thus minimizing the needed managerial planning and design. Since the classical structure of APM is not applicable the way it is to construction project, a modified version of APM was devised. This method, nicknamed 'The anchor method', exploits the fundamentals of APM (i.e., iterations, or sprints of short time frames or timeboxes, cross-functional teams, risk reduction and adaptation to changes) and adjust them to the construction world. The projects had to be structured appropriately to proactively and quickly adapt to change. The method aims to encompass human behavior and lean towards adaptivity rather than predictability. To enable smooth application of the method, a special project management software was developed, so as to provide solid administrational help and accurate data. The method is tested on a bunch of construction projects and some key performance indicators (KPIs) are collected. According to preliminary results the method is indeed very advantageous and with proper assimilation can radically change the construction project management paradigm.

Keywords: agile project management, construction, information systems, project management

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: E. M. Rifqi Wilda Pradana, Bagus Bayu Prabowo, Meida Riski Pujiyati, Efraim Maykhel Hagana Ginting, Virgiawan Arya Hangga Reksa

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The VLF (Very Low Frequency) method is an electromagnetic method that uses low frequencies between 10-30 KHz which results in a fairly deep penetration. In this study, the VLF method was used for zonation of disaster-prone areas by identifying geological structures in the form of faults. Data acquisition was carried out in Trimulyo Region, Jetis District, Bantul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia with 8 measurement paths. This study uses wave transmitters from Japan and Australia to obtain Tilt and Elipt values that can be used to create RAE (Rapat Arus Ekuivalen or Current Density) sections that can be used to identify areas that are easily crossed by electric current. This section will indicate the existence of a geological structure in the form of faults in the study area which is characterized by a high RAE value. In data processing of VLF method, it is obtained Tilt vs Elliptical graph and Moving Average (MA) Tilt vs Moving Average (MA) Elipt graph of each path that shows a fluctuating pattern and does not show any intersection at all. Data processing uses Matlab software and obtained areas with low RAE values that are 0%-6% which shows medium with low conductivity and high resistivity and can be interpreted as sandstone, claystone, and tuff lithology which is part of the Semilir Formation. Whereas a high RAE value of 10% -16% which shows a medium with high conductivity and low resistivity can be interpreted as a fault zone filled with fluid. The existence of the fault zone is strengthened by the discovery of a normal fault on the surface with strike N550W and dip 630E at coordinates X= 433256 and Y= 9127722 so that the activities of residents in the zone such as housing, mining activities and other activities can be avoided to reduce the risk of natural disasters.

Keywords: current density, faults, very low frequency, zonation

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Authors: Agnieszka Misztal

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The popularity of the quality management system models continues to grow despite the transitional crisis in 2008. Their development is associated with the demands of the new requirements for entrepreneurs, such as risk analysis projects and more emphasis on supervision of outsourced processes. In parallel appropriate to focus attention on the selection of companies aspiring to quality management system. This is particularly important in the automotive supplier industry, where requirements transferred to the levels in the supply chain should be clear, transparent and fairly satisfied. The author has carried out series of researches aimed at finding the factors that allow for the effective implementation of the quality management system in automotive companies. The research was focused on four groups of companies: 1) manufacturing (parts and assemblies for the purpose of sale or for vehicle manufacturers), 2) service (repair and maintenance of the car), 3) services for the transport of goods or people, 4) commercial (auto parts and vehicles). Identified determinants were divided in two types of criteria into: internal and external, as well as: hard and soft. The article presents hard - technical factors that automotive company must meet in order to achieve the goal of the quality management system implementation.

Keywords: automotive industry, quality management system, automotive technology, automotive company

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Laatra Zemmouri, Said Boukhechem, Samia Haffaf, Mohamed Lafri

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A study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with abortion in ewes in the region of M’sila, located in central-eastern Algeria. A questionnaire was carried out to obtain information about the occurrence of abortion, sheep housing conditions, vaccination, feeding and management practices, and whether the farmers kept other livestock. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 36 months (between 2016 and 2019). A total of 71 sheep flocks were visited. Among 8168 ewes, we recorded 734 (8.99%) abortions and 3861 lambings. The risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression showed an association between abortion and vaccination against brucellosis (CI 95%= 2,76-1,35; p<0,001). Abortion decreased when dogs are owned (CI 95%= 0,36-0,84; p= 0.006), however, abortion increased with the presence of cats in farms (CI 95%= 1,24-2,8; p=0.003). There was a significant association between abortion and keeping goats (CI 95%= 1,18-2,40; p= 0.004), bovins (CI 95%= 0,3-0,68; p<0,001) and poultry CI 95%= 0,39-0,77; p= 0.001) in farms. Through this study, it is noticed that a strong association between the occurrence of abortion and estrus synchronization, stillbirth occurrence, and feed supplementation (p<0.05). Identification of the causes of abortion is an important task to reduce foetal losses and to improve livestock productivity.

Keywords: abortion, ewes, questionnaire, risk factors

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Hind Bouami, Patrick Millot

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Medication dispensing system is a life-critical system whose failure may result in preventable adverse events leading to longer patient stays in hospitals or patient death. Automation has led to great improvements in life-critical systems as it increased safety, efficiency, and comfort. However, critical risks related to medical organization complexity and automated solutions integration can threaten drug dispensing security and performance. Knowledge about the system’s complexity aspects and human machine parameters to control for automated equipment’s security and performance will help operators to secure their automation process and to optimize their system’s reliability. In this context, this study aims to document the operator’s situation awareness about automation risks and parameters involved in automation security and performance. Our risk management approach has been deployed in the North Luxembourg hospital center’s pharmacy, which is equipped with automated drug dispensing systems since 2009. With more than 4 million euros of gains generated, North Luxembourg hospital center’s success story was enabled by the management commitment, pharmacy’s involvement in the implementation and improvement of the automation project, and the close collaboration between the pharmacy and Sinteco’s firm to implement the necessary innovation and organizational actions for automated solutions integration security and performance. An analysis of the actions implemented by the hospital and the parameters involved in automated equipment’s integration security and performance has been made. The parameters to control for automated equipment’s integration security and performance are human aspects (6.25%), technical aspects (50%), and human-machine interaction (43.75%). The implementation of an anthropocentric analysis system before automation would have prevented and optimized the control of risks related to automation.

Keywords: Automated drug delivery systems, Hospitals, Human-centered automated system, Risk management

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

Abstract:

This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Sudha Arlikatti, Laura Siebeneck, Simon A. Andrew

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to measure organizational resiliency through five attributes namely, rapidity, redundancy, resourcefulness, and robustness and to provide recommendations for resiliency building in flood risk communities. The research was conducted in Thailand following the severe floods of 2011 triggered by Tropical Storm Nock-ten. The floods lasted over eight months starting in June 2011 affecting 65 of the country’s 76 provinces and over 12 million people. Funding from a US National Science Foundation grant was used to collect ephemeral data in rural (Ayutthaya), suburban (Pathum Thani), and urban (Bangkok) provinces of Thailand. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted in Thai with 44 contacts from public, private, and non-profit organizations including universities, schools, automobile companies, vendors, tourist agencies, monks from temples, faith based organizations, and government agencies. Multiple triangulations were used to analyze the data by identifying selective themes from the qualitative data, validated with quantitative data and news media reports. This helped to obtain a more comprehensive view of how organizations in different geographic settings varied in their understanding of what enhanced or hindered their resilience and consequently their speed and capacities to respond. The findings suggest that the urban province of Bangkok scored highest in resourcefulness, rapidity of response, robustness, and ability to rebound. This is not surprising considering that it is the country’s capital and the seat of government, economic, military and tourism sectors. However, contrary to expectations all 44 respondents noted that the rural province of Ayutthaya was the fastest to recover amongst the three. Its organizations scored high on redundancy and rapidity of response due to the strength of social networks, a flood disaster sub-culture due to annual flooding, and the help provided by monks from and faith based organizations. Organizations in the suburban community of Pathum Thani scored lowest on rapidity of response and resourcefulness due to limited and ambiguous warnings, lack of prior flood experience and controversies that government flood protection works like sandbagging favored the capital city of Bangkok over them. Such a micro-level examination of organizational resilience in rural, suburban and urban areas in a country through mixed methods studies has its merits in getting a nuanced understanding of the importance of disaster subcultures and religious norms for resilience. This can help refocus attention on the strengths of social networks and social capital, for flood mitigation.

Keywords: disaster subculture, flood response, organizational resilience, Thailand floods, religious beliefs and response, social capital and disasters

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Authors: Belakhdar Salah Brahim

Abstract:

The Urban management is a major element of social control of public space and thus the functioning of society. As such, it is a key element of a social conception of sustainable development. Also, it is a cross-cutting sector that relies on land management, infrastructure management, habitat management, management of social services, the management of economic development, etc. This study aims to study how urban management focusing on the study of problems related to urban waste management in developing countries. It appears from the study that the city management is to improve infrastructure and urban services in order to increase the city's development and improve living conditions in cities. It covers various aspects including management of urban space, economic management, administrative management, asset management or infrastructure and finally waste management. Environmental management is important because it solves the pollution problems of life and preserve resources for future generations. Changing perceptions of waste has led to the definition of new policies for integrated waste management requirements appropriate to the urban site.

Keywords: urbanization, urban management, environmental management, waste management

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Authors: Yousef S. Al-Othman

Abstract:

The growth and expansion of the industrial facilities comes proportional to the market increasing demand of products and services. Furthermore, raw material producers such as oil companies usually undergo massive revamping projects to maintain a synchronized supply. These revamping projects are usually delivered through challenging construction projects held and associated with daily site risks related to the construction process. Henceforth, a case study related to these risks and corresponding on-spot corrective measurements has been made on a certain number of construction project contractors at Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to derive the benefits and overall effectiveness of the on-spot corrective measurements during the construction phase of a project, and how would the same help in avoiding major incidents, ensuring a smooth, cost effective and on time delivery of the project. Findings of this case study shall have an added value to the overall risk management process by minimizing the daily site risks that may affect the project lead time, resulting in an undisturbed on-site construction process.

Keywords: oil and gas, risk management, construction projects, project lead time

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Authors: Hannes Koester

Abstract:

Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Abraham Addo-Bediako

Abstract:

Many freshwater ecosystems are facing immense pressure from anthropogenic activities, such as agricultural, industrial and mining. Trace metal pollution in freshwater ecosystems has become an issue of public health concern due to its toxicity and persistence in the environment. Trace elements pose a serious risk not only to the environment and aquatic biota but also humans. Chromium is one of such trace elements and its pollution in surface waters and groundwaters represents a serious environmental problem. In South Africa, agriculture, mining, industrial and domestic wastes are the main contributors to chromium discharge in rivers. The common forms of chromium are chromium (III) and chromium (VI). The latter is the most toxic because it can cause damage to human health. The aim of the study was to assess the contamination of chromium in the water and sediments of two rivers in the Steelpoort River sub-catchment of the Olifants River Basin, South Africa and human health risk. The concentration of Cr was analyzed using inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The concentration of the metal was found to exceed the threshold limit, mainly in areas of high human activities. The hazard quotient through ingestion exposure did not exceed the threshold limit of 1 for adults and children and cancer risk for adults and children computed did not exceed the threshold limit of 10-4. Thus, there is no potential health risk from chromium through ingestion of drinking water for now. However, with increasing human activities, especially mining, the concentration could increase and become harmful to humans who depend on rivers for drinking water. It is recommended that proper management strategies should be taken to minimize the impact of chromium on the rivers and water from the rivers should properly be treated before domestic use.

Keywords: land use, health risk, metal pollution, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 87