Search results for: decision making support systems
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19795

Search results for: decision making support systems

19075 Mothers’ Experiences of Continuing Their Pregnancy after Prenatally Receiving a Diagnosis of Down Syndrome

Authors: Sevinj Asgarova

Abstract:

Within the last few decades, major advances in the field of prenatal testing have transpired yet little research regarding the experiences of mothers who chose to continue their pregnancies after prenatally receiving a diagnosis of Down Syndrome (DS) has been undertaken. Using social constructionism and interpretive description, this retrospective research study explores this topic from the point of view of the mothers involved and provides insight as to how the experience could be improved. Using purposive sampling, 23 mothers were recruited from British Columbia (n=11) and Ontario (n=12) in Canada. Data retrieved through semi-structured in-depth interviews were analyzed using inductive, constant comparative analysis, the major analytical techniques of interpretive description. Four primary phases emerged from the data analysis 1) healthcare professional-mothers communications, 2) initial emotional response, 3) subsequent decision-making and 4) an adjustment and reorganization of lifestyle to the preparation for the birth of the child. This study validates the individualized and contextualized nature of mothers’ decisions as influenced by multiple factors, with moral values/spiritual beliefs being significant. The mothers’ ability to cope was affected by the information communicated to them about their unborn baby’s diagnosis and the manner in which that information was delivered to them. Mothers used emotional coping strategies, dependent upon support from partners, family, and friends, as well as from other families who have children with DS. Additionally, they employed practical coping strategies, such as engaging in healthcare planning, seeking relevant information, and reimagining and reorganizing their lifestyle. Over time many families gained a sense of control over their situation and readjusted to the preparation for the birth of the child. Many mothers expressed the importance of maintaining positivity and hopefulness with respect to positive outcomes and opportunities for their children. The comprehensive information generated through this study will also provide healthcare professionals with relevant information to assist them in understanding the informational and emotional needs of these mothers. This should lead to an improvement in their practice and enhance their ability to intervene appropriately and effectively, better offering improved support to parents dealing with a diagnosis of DS for their child.

Keywords: continuing affected pregnancy, decision making, disability, down syndrome, eugenic social attitudes, inequalities, life change events, prenatal care, prenatal testing, qualitative research, social change, social justice

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
19074 Elevating Environmental Impact Assessment through Remote Sensing in Engineering

Authors: Spoorthi Srupad

Abstract:

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) stands as a critical engineering application facilitated by Earth Resources and Environmental Remote Sensing. Employing advanced technologies, this process enables a systematic evaluation of potential environmental impacts arising from engineering projects. Remote sensing techniques, including satellite imagery and geographic information systems (GIS), play a pivotal role in providing comprehensive data for assessing changes in land cover, vegetation, water bodies, and air quality. This abstract delves into the significance of EIA in engineering, emphasizing its role in ensuring sustainable and environmentally responsible practices. The integration of remote sensing technologies enhances the accuracy and efficiency of impact assessments, contributing to informed decision-making and the mitigation of adverse environmental consequences associated with engineering endeavors.

Keywords: environmental impact assessment, engineering applications, sustainability, environmental monitoring, remote sensing, geographic information systems, environmental management

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19073 Integrating Data Envelopment Analysis and Variance Inflation Factor to Measure the Efficiency of Decision Making Units

Authors: Mostafa Kazemi, Zahra N. Farkhani

Abstract:

This paper proposes an integrated Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) model for measuring the technical efficiency of decision making units. The model is validated using a set of 69% sales representatives’ dairy products. The analysis is done in two stages, in the first stage, VIF technique is used to distinguish independent effective factors of resellers, and in the second stage we used DEA for measuring efficiency for both constant and variable return to scales status. Further DEA is used to examine the utilization of environmental factors on efficiency. Results of this paper indicated an average managerial efficiency of 83% in the whole sales representatives’ dairy products. In addition, technical and scale efficiency were counted 96% and 80% respectively. 38% of sales representative have the technical efficiency of 100% and 72% of the sales representative in terms of managerial efficiency are quite efficient.High levels of relative efficiency indicate a good condition for sales representative efficiency.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis (DEA), relative efficiency, sales representatives’ dairy products, variance inflation factor (VIF)

Procedia PDF Downloads 553
19072 Design and Development of Data Mining Application for Medical Centers in Remote Areas

Authors: Grace Omowunmi Soyebi

Abstract:

Data Mining is the extraction of information from a large database which helps in predicting a trend or behavior, thereby helping management make knowledge-driven decisions. One principal problem of most hospitals in rural areas is making use of the file management system for keeping records. A lot of time is wasted when a patient visits the hospital, probably in an emergency, and the nurse or attendant has to search through voluminous files before the patient's file can be retrieved; this may cause an unexpected to happen to the patient. This Data Mining application is to be designed using a Structured System Analysis and design method, which will help in a well-articulated analysis of the existing file management system, feasibility study, and proper documentation of the Design and Implementation of a Computerized medical record system. This Computerized system will replace the file management system and help to easily retrieve a patient's record with increased data security, access clinical records for decision-making, and reduce the time range at which a patient gets attended to.

Keywords: data mining, medical record system, systems programming, computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
19071 Experiencing an Unknown City: Environmental Features as Pedestrian Wayfinding Clues through the City of Swansea, UK

Authors: Hussah Alotaishan

Abstract:

In today’s globally-driven modern cities diverse groups of new visitors face various challenges when attempting to find their desired location if culture and language are barriers. The most common way-showing tools such as directional and identificational signs are the most problematic and their usefulness can be limited or even non-existent. It is argued new methods should be implemented that could support or replace such conventional literacy and language dependent way-finding aids. It has been concluded in recent research studies that local urban features in complex pedestrian spaces are worthy of further study in order to reveal if they do function as way-showing clues. Some researchers propose a more comprehensive approach to the complex perception of buildings, façade design and surface patterns, while some have been questioning whether we necessarily need directional signs or can other methods deliver the same message but in a clearer manner for a wider range of users. This study aimed to test to what extent do existent environmental and urban features through the city center area of Swansea in the UK facilitate the way-finding process of a first time visitor. The three-hour experiment was set to attempt to find 11 visitor attractions ranging from recreational, historical, educational and religious locations. The challenge was attempting to find as many as possible when no prior geographical knowledge of their whereabouts was established. The only clues were 11 pictures representing each of the locations that had been acquired from the city of Swansea official website. An iPhone and a heart-rate tracker wristwatch were used to record the route was taken and stress levels, and take record photographs of destinations or decision-making points throughout the journey. This paper addresses: current limitations in understanding the ways that the physical environment can be intentionally deployed to facilitate pedestrians while finding their way around, without or with a reduction in language dependent signage; investigates visitor perceptions of their surroundings by indicating what urban elements manifested an impact on the way-finding process. The initial findings support the view that building facades and street features, such as width, could facilitate the decision-making process if strategically employed. However, more importantly, the anticipated features of a specific place construed from a promotional picture can also be misleading and create confusion that may lead to getting lost.

Keywords: pedestrian way-finding, environmental features, urban way-showing, environmental affordance

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
19070 Control HVAC Parameters by Brain Emotional Learning Based Intelligent Controller (BELBIC)

Authors: Javad Abdi, Azam Famil Khalili

Abstract:

Modeling emotions have attracted much attention in recent years, both in cognitive psychology and design of artificial systems. However, it is a negative factor in decision-making; emotions have shown to be a strong faculty for making fast satisfying decisions. In this paper, we have adapted a computational model based on the limbic system in the mammalian brain for control engineering applications. Learning in this model based on Temporal Difference (TD) Learning, we applied the proposed controller (termed BELBIC) for a simple model of a submarine. The model was supposed to reach the desired depth underwater. Our results demonstrate excellent control action, disturbance handling, and system parameter robustness for TDBELBIC. The proposal method, regarding the present conditions, the system action in the part and the controlling aims, can control the system in a way that these objectives are attained in the least amount of time and the best way.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, temporal difference, brain emotional learning based intelligent controller, heating- ventilating and air conditioning

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19069 Developing Structured Sizing Systems for Manufacturing Ready-Made Garments of Indian Females Using Decision Tree-Based Data Mining

Authors: Hina Kausher, Sangita Srivastava

Abstract:

In India, there is a lack of standard, systematic sizing approach for producing readymade garments. Garments manufacturing companies use their own created size tables by modifying international sizing charts of ready-made garments. The purpose of this study is to tabulate the anthropometric data which covers the variety of figure proportions in both height and girth. 3,000 data has been collected by an anthropometric survey undertaken over females between the ages of 16 to 80 years from some states of India to produce the sizing system suitable for clothing manufacture and retailing. This data is used for the statistical analysis of body measurements, the formulation of sizing systems and body measurements tables. Factor analysis technique is used to filter the control body dimensions from a large number of variables. Decision tree-based data mining is used to cluster the data. The standard and structured sizing system can facilitate pattern grading and garment production. Moreover, it can exceed buying ratios and upgrade size allocations to retail segments.

Keywords: anthropometric data, data mining, decision tree, garments manufacturing, sizing systems, ready-made garments

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
19068 Site Selection of CNG Station by Using FUZZY-AHP Model (Case Study: Gas Zone 4, Tehran City Iran)

Authors: Hamidrza Joodaki

Abstract:

The most complex issue in urban land use planning is site selection that needs to assess the verity of elements and factors. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods are the best approach to deal with complex problems. In this paper, combination of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model and FUZZY logic was used as MCDM methods to select the best site for gas station in the 4th gas zone of Tehran. The first and the most important step in FUZZY-AHP model is selection of criteria and sub-criteria. Population, accessibility, proximity and natural disasters were considered as the main criteria in this study. After choosing the criteria, they were weighted based on AHP by EXPERT CHOICE software, and FUZZY logic was used to enhance accuracy and to approach the reality. After these steps, criteria layers were produced and weighted based on FUZZY-AHP model in GIS. Finally, through ARC GIS software, the layers were integrated and the 4th gas zone in TEHRAN was selected as the best site to locate gas station.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), FUZZY logic, geographic information system (GIS)

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19067 Youth and Conflict in Pakistan: Understanding Causes and Promoting Peace

Authors: Irfan Khan

Abstract:

Both the analytical methods used to understand the phenomena of peacebuilding and the ensuing viewpoints on achieving and sustaining "sustainable peace" are broad and diverse. This new field of study draws from sociology, anthropology, political theory, and political economy, psychology, international relations, and more recently, the development sciences to examine the wide range of 'conflicts' it describes. This paper emphasizes the significance of investigating the causes of juvenile disputes. It explains how police corruption encourages youth crime and why it's so important to address this issue head-on. It also examines the historical foundations and external pressures that have increased religious extremism and sectarian strife in Pakistan. The primary argument is that peace is not only a desirable 'goal' in itself but also that it may be a means to achieve political stability and long-term prosperity. Strategies for constructing peace may take many shapes, each tailored to the specifics of a given conflict, its scope, and the individuals involved. By drawing on some existing literature and applying it to the situation in Pakistan, this article proposes a viewpoint that centers on the participation of young people in the peacebuilding process. Due to their enhanced susceptibility and penchant for demanding change, young people are more likely to get involved in a conflict when economic failure and unemployment are present. The piece also emphasizes the marginalization young people experience as a result of their absence from decision-making processes and the political system. The article claims that Pakistan's rapidly growing young population presents a significant chance for a long-term "demographic dividend" in the form of improvements in peacebuilding processes. This benefit will only materialize if serious steps are taken to increase young people's voice and agency in political decision-making.

Keywords: peacebuilding, youth-led initiatives, empowerment, conflict & violence, religious extremism, political involvement, decision-making

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19066 Decision-Making, Expectations and Life Project in Dependent Adults Due to Disability

Authors: Julia Córdoba

Abstract:

People are not completely autonomous, as we live in society; therefore, people could be defined as relationally dependent. The lack, decrease or loss of physical, psychological and/or social interdependence due to a disability situation is known as dependence. This is related to the need for help from another person in order to carry out activities of daily living. This population group lives with major social limitations that significantly reduce their participation and autonomy. They have high levels of stigma and invisibility from private environments (family and close networks), as well as from the public order (environment, community). The importance of this study lies in the fact that the lack of support and adjustments leads to what authors call the circle of exclusion. This circle describes how not accessing services - due to the difficulties caused by the disability situation impacts biological, social and psychological levels. This situation produces higher levels of exclusion and vulnerability. This study will focus on the process of autonomy and dependence of adults with disability from the model of disability proposed by the International Classification of Functioning, Health and Disability (ICF). The objectives are: i) to write down the relationship between autonomy and dependence based on socio-health variables and ii) to determine the relationship between the situation of autonomy and dependence and the expectations and interests of the participants. We propose a study that will use a survey technique through a previously validated virtual questionnaire. The data obtained will be analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods for the details of the profiles obtained. No less than 200 questionnaires will be administered to people between 18 and 64 years of age who self-identify as having some degree of dependency due to disability. For the analysis of the results, the two main variables of autonomy and dependence will be considered. Socio-demographic variables such as age, gender identity, area of residence and family composition will be used. In relation to the biological dimension of the situation, the diagnosis, if any, and the type of disability will be asked. For the description of these profiles of autonomy and dependence, the following variables will be used: self-perception, decision-making, interests, expectations and life project, care of their health condition, support and social network, and labor and educational inclusion. The relationship between the target population and the variables collected provides several guidelines that could form the basis for the analysis of other research of interest in terms of self-perception, autonomy and dependence. The areas and situations where people state that they have greater possibilities to decide and have a say will be obtained. It will identify social (networks and support, educational background), demographic (age, gender identity and residence) and health-related variables (diagnosis and type of disability, quality of care) that may have a greater relationship with situations of dependency or autonomy. It will be studied whether the level of autonomy and/or dependence has an impact on the type of expectations and interests of the people surveyed.

Keywords: life project, disability, inclusion, autonomy

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19065 Formal Institutions and Women's Electoral Participation in Four European Countries

Authors: Sophia Francesca D. Lu

Abstract:

This research tried to produce evidence that formal institutions, such as electoral and internal party quotas, can advance women’s active roles in the public sphere using the cases of four European countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. The quantitative dataset was provided by the University of Chicago and the Inter-University Consortium of Political and Social Research based on a two-year study (2008-2010) of political parties. Belgium engages in constitutionally mandated electoral quotas. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, on the other hand, have internal party quotas, which are voluntarily adopted by political parties. In analyzing each country’s chi-square and Pearson’s r correlation, Belgium, having an electoral quota, is the only country that was analyzed for electoral quotas. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands’ internal voluntary party quotas were correlated with women’s descriptive representations. Using chi-square analysis, this study showed that the presence of electoral quotas is correlated with an increase in the percentage of women in decision-making bodies as well as with an increase in the percentage of women in decision-making bodies. Likewise, using correlational analysis, a higher number of political parties employing internal party voluntary quotas is correlated with an increase in the percentage of women occupying seats in parliament as well as an increase in the percentage of women nominees in electoral lists of political parties. In conclusion, gender quotas, such as electoral quotas or internal party quotas, are an effective policy tool for greater women’s representation in political bodies. Political parties and governments should opt to have gender quotas, whether electoral or internal party quotas, to address the underrepresentation of women in parliament, decision-making bodies, and policy-formulation.

Keywords: electoral quota, Europe, formal institutions, institutional feminism, internal party quota, women’s electoral participation

Procedia PDF Downloads 420
19064 Decision Support System for Fetus Status Evaluation Using Cardiotocograms

Authors: Oyebade K. Oyedotun

Abstract:

The cardiotocogram is a technical recording of the heartbeat rate and uterine contractions of a fetus during pregnancy. During pregnancy, several complications can occur to both the mother and the fetus; hence it is very crucial that medical experts are able to find technical means to check the healthiness of the mother and especially the fetus. It is very important that the fetus develops as expected in stages during the pregnancy period; however, the task of monitoring the health status of the fetus is not that which is easily achieved as the fetus is not wholly physically available to medical experts for inspection. Hence, doctors have to resort to some other tests that can give an indication of the status of the fetus. One of such diagnostic test is to obtain cardiotocograms of the fetus. From the analysis of the cardiotocograms, medical experts can determine the status of the fetus, and therefore necessary medical interventions. Generally, medical experts classify examined cardiotocograms into ‘normal’, ‘suspect’, or ‘pathological’. This work presents an artificial neural network based decision support system which can filter cardiotocograms data, producing the corresponding statuses of the fetuses. The capability of artificial neural network to explore the cardiotocogram data and learn features that distinguish one class from the others has been exploited in this research. In this research, feedforward and radial basis neural networks were trained on a publicly available database to classify the processed cardiotocogram data into one of the three classes: ‘normal’, ‘suspect’, or ‘pathological’. Classification accuracies of 87.8% and 89.2% were achieved during the test phase of the trained network for the feedforward and radial basis neural networks respectively. It is the hope that while the system described in this work may not be a complete replacement for a medical expert in fetus status evaluation, it can significantly reinforce the confidence in medical diagnosis reached by experts.

Keywords: decision support, cardiotocogram, classification, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 318
19063 Supplier Risk Management: A Multivariate Statistical Modelling and Portfolio Optimization Based Approach for Supplier Delivery Performance Development

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
19062 Design and Implementation of a Software Platform Based on Artificial Intelligence for Product Recommendation

Authors: Giuseppina Settanni, Antonio Panarese, Raffaele Vaira, Maurizio Galiano

Abstract:

Nowdays, artificial intelligence is used successfully in academia and industry for its ability to learn from a large amount of data. In particular, in recent years the use of machine learning algorithms in the field of e-commerce has spread worldwide. In this research study, a prototype software platform was designed and implemented in order to suggest to users the most suitable products for their needs. The platform includes a chatbot and a recommender system based on artificial intelligence algorithms that provide suggestions and decision support to the customer. The recommendation systems perform the important function of automatically filtering and personalizing information, thus allowing to manage with the IT overload to which the user is exposed on a daily basis. Recently, international research has experimented with the use of machine learning technologies with the aim to increase the potential of traditional recommendation systems. Specifically, support vector machine algorithms have been implemented combined with natural language processing techniques that allow the user to interact with the system, express their requests and receive suggestions. The interested user can access the web platform on the internet using a computer, tablet or mobile phone, register, provide the necessary information and view the products that the system deems them most appropriate. The platform also integrates a dashboard that allows the use of the various functions, which the platform is equipped with, in an intuitive and simple way. Artificial intelligence algorithms have been implemented and trained on historical data collected from user browsing. Finally, the testing phase allowed to validate the implemented model, which will be further tested by letting customers use it.

Keywords: machine learning, recommender system, software platform, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
19061 Using Analytical Hierarchy Process and TOPSIS Approaches in Designing a Finite Element Analysis Automation Program

Authors: Ming Wen, Nasim Nezamoddini

Abstract:

Sophisticated numerical simulations like finite element analysis (FEA) involve a complicated process from model setup to post-processing tasks that require replication of time-consuming steps. Utilizing FEA automation program simplifies the complexity of the involved steps while minimizing human errors in analysis set up, calculations, and results processing. One of the main challenges in designing FEA automation programs is to identify user requirements and link them to possible design alternatives. This paper presents a decision-making framework to design a Python based FEA automation program for modal analysis, frequency response analysis, and random vibration fatigue (RVF) analysis procedures. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) are applied to evaluate design alternatives considering the feedback received from experts and program users.

Keywords: finite element analysis, FEA, random vibration fatigue, process automation, analytical hierarchy process, AHP, TOPSIS, multiple-criteria decision-making, MCDM

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19060 Women Empowerment in Cassava Production: A Case Study of Southwest Nigeria

Authors: Adepoju A. A., Olapade-Ogunwole F., Ganiyu M. O.

Abstract:

This study examined women's empowerment in cassava production in southwest Nigeria. The contributions of the five domains namely decision about agricultural production, decision-making power over productive resources, control of the use of income, leadership and time allocation to women disempowerment, profiled the women based on their socio-economics features and determined factors influencing women's disempowerment. Primary data were collected from the women farmers and processors through the use of structured questionnaires. Purposive sampling was used to select the LGAs and villages based on a large number of cassava farmers and processors, while cluster sampling was used to select 360 respondents in the study area. Descriptive statistics such as bar charts and percentages, Women Empowerment in Agriculture (WEAI), and the Logit regression model were used to analyze the data collected. The results revealed that 63.88% of the women were disempowered. Lack of decision-making power over productive resources; 36.47% and leadership skills; 33.26% contributed mostly to the disempowerment of the women. About 85% of the married women were disempowered, while 76.92% of the women who participated in social group activities were more empowered than their disempowered counterparts. The findings showed that women with more years of processing experience have the probability of being disempowered while those who engage in farming as a primary livelihood activity, and participate in social groups among others have the tendency to be empowered. In view of this, it was recommended that women should be encouraged to farm and contribute to social group activities.

Keywords: cassava, production, empowerment, southwest, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 48
19059 Ubuntu: A Holistic Social Framework for Preserving Ecosystem Amidst the Climate Change Challenges

Authors: Gabriel Sunday Ayayia

Abstract:

The paper argues that Ubuntu, as a philosophy that emphasizes the interconnectedness of all living things and importance of community and mutual support, can be used as a social framework to address the problems of climate change and promote environmental sustainability. The research demonstrate that Ubuntu is an ideological concept that encourages collective action on climate change, with the emphasis on individual and collective commitment to taking concrete action to address the problems of climate change. The paper shows that Ubuntu can be employed as a social tool that would enhance the cultivation of shared identity and promote the sense of shared response responsibility to develop the resilience to cope with climate change. Using qualitative and quantitative methodologies, the study establishes the imperativeness of mutual support and cooperation through the lens of Ubuntu as a human-centered scalable response to the debacle of climate change. It recommends that we can build a society that values the environment and promotes sustainable practices by encouraging community involvement in sustainable initiatives by integrating Ubuntu-based principles to our decision-making processes, collaboration, leadership, human agency and governance.

Keywords: ubuntu, climate change, humanity, collective actions, community-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 176
19058 Marketing Mix for Tourism in the Chonburi Province

Authors: Pisit Potjanajaruwit

Abstract:

The objectives of the study were to determine the marketing mix factors that influencing tourist’s destination decision making for cultural tourism in the Chonburi province. Both quantitative and qualitative data were applied in this study. The samples of 400 cases for quantitative analysis were tourists (both Thai and foreign) who were interested in cultural tourism in the Chonburi province, and traveled to cultural sites in Chonburi and 14 representatives from provincial tourism committee of Chonburi and local tourism experts. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The study found that Thai and foreign tourists are influenced by different important marketing mix factors. The important factors for Thai respondents were physical evidence, price, people, and place at high importance level. For foreign respondents, physical evidence, price, people, and process were high importance level, whereas, product, place, and promotion were moderate importance level.

Keywords: Chonburi Province, decision making, cultural tourism, marketing mixed

Procedia PDF Downloads 384
19057 Iraqi Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting Based on Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems, electric, computer systems engineering

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19056 Using LTE-Sim in New Hanover Decision Algorithm for 2-Tier Macrocell-Femtocell LTE Network

Authors: Umar D. M., Aminu A. M., Izaddeen K. Y.

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Deployments of mini macrocell base stations also referred to as femtocells, improve the quality of service of indoor and outdoor users. Nevertheless, mobility management remains a key issue with regards to their deployment. This paper is leaned towards this issue, with an in-depth focus on the most important aspect of mobility management -handover. In handover management, making a handover decision in the LTE two-tier macrocell femtocell network is a crucial research area. Decision algorithms in this research are classified and comparatively analyzed according to received signal strength, user equipment speed, cost function, and interference. However, it was observed that most of the discussed decision algorithms fail to consider cell selection with hybrid access policy in a single macrocell multiple femtocell scenario, another observation was a majority of these algorithms lack the incorporation of user equipment residence parameter. Not including this parameter boosts the number of unnecessary handover occurrence. To deal with these issues, a sophisticated handover decision algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm considers the user’s velocity, received signal strength, residence time, as well as the femtocell base station’s access policy. Simulation results have shown that the proposed algorithm reduces the number of unnecessary handovers when compared to conventional received signal strength-based handover decision algorithm.

Keywords: user-equipment, radio signal service, long term evolution, mobility management, handoff

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19055 Smart Structures for Cost Effective Cultural Heritage Preservation

Authors: Tamara Trček Pečak, Andrej Mohar, Denis Trček

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This article investigates the latest technological means, which deploy smart structures that are based on (advanced) wireless sensors technologies and ubiquitous computing in general in order to support the above mentioned decision making. Based on two years of in-field research experiences it gives their analysis for these kinds of purposes and provides appropriate architectures and architectural solutions. Moreover, the directions for future research are stated, because these technologies are currently the most promising ones to enable cost-effective preservation of cultural heritage not only in uncontrolled places, but also in general.

Keywords: smart structures, wireless sensors, sensors networks, green computing, cultural heritage preservation, monitoring, cost effectiveness

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19054 Preparation vADL.net: A Software Architecture Tool with Support to All of Architectural Concepts Title

Authors: Adel Smeda, Badr Najep

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Software architecture is a method of describing the architecture of a software system at a high level of abstraction. It represents a common abstraction of a system that stakeholders can use as a basis for mutual understanding, negotiation, consensus, and communication. It also manifests the earliest design decisions about a system, and these early bindings carry weight far out of proportion to their individual gravity with respect to the system's remaining development, its deployment, and its maintenance life, therefore it is the earliest point at which design decisions governing the system to be built can be analyzed. In this paper, we present a tool to model the architecture of software systems. It represents the first method by which system defects can be detected, and provide a clear representation of a system’s components and interactions at a high level of abstraction. It can be distinguished from other tools by its support to all software architecture elements. The tool is built using VB.net 2010. We used this tool to describe two well know systems, i.e. Capitalize and Client/Server, and the descriptions we obtained support all architectural elements of the two systems.

Keywords: software architecture, architecture description languages, modeling

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19053 Procedure Model for Data-Driven Decision Support Regarding the Integration of Renewable Energies into Industrial Energy Management

Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

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The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation

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19052 Post-Disaster Recovery and Impacts on Construction Resources: Case Studies of Queensland Catastrophic Events

Authors: Scott A. Abbott

Abstract:

This paper examines the increase in the occurrence of natural disasters worldwide and the need to support vulnerable communities in post-disaster recovery. Preparation and implementation of post-disaster recovery projects need to be improved to allow communities to recover infrastructure, housing, economically and socially following a catastrophe. With the continual rise in catastrophic events worldwide due to climate change, impacts on construction resources affect the ability for post-disaster recovery to be undertaken. This research focuses on case studies of catastrophic events in Queensland, Australia, to contribute to the body of knowledge and gain valuable insights on lessons learned from past events and how they have been managed. The aim of this research is to adopt qualitative data using semi-structured interviews from participants predominantly from the insurance sector to understand barriers that have previously and currently exist in post-disaster recovery. Existing literature was reviewed to reveal gaps in knowledge that needed to be tested. Qualitative data was collected and summarised from field research with the results analysed and discussed. Barriers that impacted post-disaster recovery included time, cost, and resource capability and capacity. Causal themes that impacted time and cost were identified as decision making, pre-planning, and preparedness, as well as effective communication across stakeholders. The research study applied a qualitative approach to the existing literature and case studies across Queensland, Australia, to identify existing and new barriers that impact post-disaster recovery. It was recommended to implement effective procurement strategies to assist in cost control; implement pre-planning and preparedness strategies across funder, contractor, and local governments; more effective and timely decision making to reduce time and cost impacts.

Keywords: construction recovery, cost, disaster recovery, resources, time

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19051 A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Model for Sustainable Development of Community-Based Tourism through the Homestay Program in Malaysia

Authors: Azizah Ismail, Zainab Khalifah, Abbas Mardani

Abstract:

Sustainable community-based tourism through homestay programme is a growing niche market that has impacted destinations in many countries including Malaysia. With demand predicted to continue increasing, the importance of the homestay product will grow in the tourism industry. This research examines the sustainability criteria for homestay programme in Malaysia covering economic, socio-cultural and environmental dimensions. This research applied a two-stage methodology for data analysis. Specifically, the researcher implements a hybrid method which combines two multi-criteria decision making approaches. In the first stage of the methodology, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique is applied. Then, Analytical Network Process (ANP) is employed for the achievement of the objective of the current research. After factors identification and problem formulation, DEMATEL is used to detect complex relationships and to build a Network Relation Map (NRM). Then ANP is used to prioritize and find the weights of the criteria and sub-criteria of the decision model. The research verifies the framework of multi-criteria for sustainable community-based tourism from the perspective of stakeholders. The result also provides a different perspective on the importance of sustainable criteria from the view of multi-stakeholders. Practically, this research gives the framework model and helps stakeholders to improve and innovate the homestay programme and also promote community-based tourism.

Keywords: community-based tourism, homestay programme, sustainable tourism criteria, sustainable tourism development

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
19050 Choice of Sleeper and Rail Fastening Using Linear Programming Technique

Authors: Luciano Oliveira, Elsa Vásquez-Alvarez

Abstract:

The increase in rail freight transport in Brazil in recent years requires new railway lines and the maintenance of existing ones, which generates high costs for concessionaires. It is in this context that this work is inserted, whose objective is to propose a method that uses Binary Linear Programming for the choice of sleeper and rail fastening, from various options, including the way to apply these materials, with focus to minimize costs. Unit value information, the life cycle each of material type, and service expenses are considered. The model was implemented in commercial software using real data for its validation. The formulated model can be replicated to support decision-making for other railway projects in the choice of sleepers and rail fastening with lowest cost.

Keywords: linear programming, rail fastening, rail sleeper, railway

Procedia PDF Downloads 189
19049 A Mixed-method Study of Psychological Empowerment in Child Protection Practitioners

Authors: Amy Bromley

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Child protection practitioners are a vital part of systems designed to protect children from abuse and neglect. Reforms in Anglo-American systems have shown a trend towards compliance-culture that reduces practitioner autonomy and empowerment, increasing staff turnover and negatively impacting outcomes for children. This explanatory mixed-methods study examined psychological empowerment in a national sample of child protection practitioners in Australia (n=109) using the Psychological Empowerment Instrument followed by semi-structured interviews (n=19). The results show that practitioners experience the sub-dimensions of psychological empowerment differently, perceiving themselves to have high levels of competence and satisfaction in their work but limited opportunities for self-determination and low levels of impact on decision-making in their organizations. The qualitative data revealed that practitioners do not trust systemic reforms and have experienced them as ineffective, politically driven, and bureaucratic. The increased compliance demanded from these reforms has left practitioners feeling that their expertise is not valued, leading many to leave their organizations. The practitioners who remain employed in child protection identified their use of advocacy, curiosity, and child-centered values as ways of protecting their psychological empowerment. The findings highlight the ways psychological empowerment can be promoted within child protection systems, improving staff retention and building expertise.

Keywords: child protection, implementation, psychological empowerment, systems theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 185
19048 Decision Support System for Hospital Selection in Emergency Medical Services: A Discrete Event Simulation Approach

Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support the operational decision of the Emergency Medical Service (EMS) regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). In the literature, this problem is also known as “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of the first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies are mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a request. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the transport time and release the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs, considering information relating to the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case-mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to evaluate different hospital selection policies. Therefore, the next steps of the research consisted of the development of a general simulation architecture, its implementation in the AnyLogic software and its validation on a realistic dataset. The hospital selection policy that produced the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, which is based on a retrospective estimate of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, which is based on a predictive estimate of the TTP determined with a constantly updated Winters model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP as a hospital selection policy raises several benefits. It allows to significantly reduce service throughput times in the ED with a minimum increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case-mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms of TTP estimation than a retrospective approach but entails a more difficult application. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, emergency medical services, forecast model, hospital selection

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19047 Clinical Advice Services: Using Lean Chassis to Optimize Nurse-Driven Telephonic Triage of After-Hour Calls from Patients

Authors: Eric Lee G. Escobedo-Wu, Nidhi Rohatgi, Fouzel Dhebar

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It is challenging for patients to navigate through healthcare systems after-hours. This leads to delays in care, patient/provider dissatisfaction, inappropriate resource utilization, readmissions, and higher costs. It is important to provide patients and providers with effective clinical decision-making tools to allow seamless connectivity and coordinated care. In August 2015, patient-centric Stanford Health Care established Clinical Advice Services (CAS) to provide clinical decision support after-hours. CAS is founded on key Lean principles: Value stream mapping, empathy mapping, waste walk, takt time calculations, standard work, plan-do-check-act cycles, and active daily management. At CAS, Clinical Assistants take the initial call and manage all non-clinical calls (e.g., appointments, directions, general information). If the patient has a clinical symptom, the CAS nurses take the call and utilize standardized clinical algorithms to triage the patient to home, clinic, urgent care, emergency department, or 911. Nurses may also contact the on-call physician based on the clinical algorithm for further direction and consultation. Since August 2015, CAS has managed 228,990 calls from 26 clinical specialties. Reporting is built into the electronic health record for analysis and data collection. 65.3% of the after-hours calls are clinically related. Average clinical algorithm adherence rate has been 92%. An average of 9% of calls was escalated by CAS nurses to the physician on call. An average of 5% of patients was triaged to the Emergency Department by CAS. Key learnings indicate that a seamless connectivity vision, cascading, multidisciplinary ownership of the problem, and synergistic enterprise improvements have contributed to this success while striving for continuous improvement.

Keywords: after hours phone calls, clinical advice services, nurse triage, Stanford Health Care

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19046 Exploring the Dark Side of IT Security: Delphi Study on Business’ Influencing Factors

Authors: Tizian Matschak, Ilja Nastjuk, Stephan Kühnel, Simon Trang

Abstract:

We argue that besides well-known primary effects of information security controls (ISCs), namely confidentiality, integrity, and availability, ISCs can also have secondary effects. For example, while IT can add business value through impacts on business processes, ISCs can be a barrier and distort the relationship between IT and organizational value through the impact on business processes. By applying the Delphi method with 28 experts, we derived 27 business process influence dimensions of ISCs. Defining and understanding these mechanisms can change the common understanding of the cost-benefit valuation of IT security investments and support managers' effective and efficient decision-making.

Keywords: business process dimensions, dark side of information security, Delphi study, IT security controls

Procedia PDF Downloads 104