Search results for: generalized extreme value distribution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6398

Search results for: generalized extreme value distribution

5708 Functioning of Public Distribution System and Calories Intake in the State of Maharashtra

Authors: Balasaheb Bansode, L. Ladusingh

Abstract:

The public distribution system is an important component of food security. It is a massive welfare program undertaken by Government of India and implemented by state government since India being a federal state; for achieving multiple objectives like eliminating hunger, reduction in malnutrition and making food consumption affordable. This program reaches at the community level through the various agencies of the government. The paper focuses on the accessibility of PDS at household level and how the present policy framework results in exclusion and inclusion errors. It tries to explore the sanctioned food grain quantity received by differentiated ration cards according to income criterion at household level, and also it has highlighted on the type of corruption in food distribution that is generated by the PDS system. The data used is of secondary nature from NSSO 68 round conducted in 2012. Bivariate and multivariate techniques have been used to understand the working and consumption of food for this paper.

Keywords: calories intake, entitle food quantity, poverty aliviation through PDS, target error

Procedia PDF Downloads 323
5707 Nonparametric Copula Approximations

Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

Abstract:

Copulas are currently utilized in finance, reliability theory, machine learning, signal processing, geodesy, hydrology and biostatistics, among several other fields of scientific investigation. It follows from Sklar's theorem that the joint distribution function of a multidimensional random vector can be expressed in terms of its associated copula and marginals. Since marginal distributions can easily be determined by making use of a variety of techniques, we address the problem of securing the distribution of the copula. This will be done by using several approaches. For example, we will obtain bivariate least-squares approximations of the empirical copulas, modify the kernel density estimation technique and propose a criterion for selecting appropriate bandwidths, differentiate linearized empirical copulas, secure Bernstein polynomial approximations of suitable degrees, and apply a corollary to Sklar's result. Illustrative examples involving actual observations will be presented. The proposed methodologies will as well be applied to a sample generated from a known copula distribution in order to validate their effectiveness.

Keywords: copulas, Bernstein polynomial approximation, least-squares polynomial approximation, kernel density estimation, density approximation

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5706 The Interaction of Climate Change and Human Health in Italy

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

Abstract:

The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

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5705 An Application of Quantile Regression to Large-Scale Disaster Research

Authors: Katarzyna Wyka, Dana Sylvan, JoAnn Difede

Abstract:

Background and significance: The following disaster, population-based screening programs are routinely established to assess physical and psychological consequences of exposure. These data sets are highly skewed as only a small percentage of trauma-exposed individuals develop health issues. Commonly used statistical methodology in post-disaster mental health generally involves population-averaged models. Such models aim to capture the overall response to the disaster and its aftermath; however, they may not be sensitive enough to accommodate population heterogeneity in symptomatology, such as post-traumatic stress or depressive symptoms. Methods: We use an archival longitudinal data set from Weill-Cornell 9/11 Mental Health Screening Program established following the World Trade Center (WTC) terrorist attacks in New York in 2001. Participants are rescue and recovery workers who participated in the site cleanup and restoration (n=2960). The main outcome is the post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSD) severity score assessed via clinician interviews (CAPS). For a detailed understanding of response to the disaster and its aftermath, we are adapting quantile regression methodology with particular focus on predictors of extreme distress and resilience to trauma. Results: The response variable was defined as the quantile of the CAPS score for each individual under two different scenarios specifying the unconditional quantiles based on: 1) clinically meaningful CAPS cutoff values and 2) CAPS distribution in the population. We present graphical summaries of the differential effects. For instance, we found that the effect of the WTC exposures, namely seeing bodies and feeling that life was in danger during rescue/recovery work was associated with very high PTSD symptoms. A similar effect was apparent in individuals with prior psychiatric history. Differential effects were also present for age and education level of the individuals. Conclusion: We evaluate the utility of quantile regression in disaster research in contrast to the commonly used population-averaged models. We focused on assessing the distribution of risk factors for post-traumatic stress symptoms across quantiles. This innovative approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between dependent and independent variables and could be used for developing tailored training programs and response plans for different vulnerability groups.

Keywords: disaster workers, post traumatic stress, PTSD, quantile regression

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5704 Influence of the Non-Uniform Distribution of Filler Porosity on the Thermal Performance of Sensible Heat Thermocline Storage Tanks

Authors: Yuchao Hua, Lingai Luo

Abstract:

Thermal energy storage is of critical importance for the highly-efficient utilization of renewable energy sources. Over the past decades, single-tank thermocline technology has attracted much attention owing to its high cost-effectiveness. In the present work, we investigate the influence of the filler porosity’s non-uniform distribution on the thermal performance of the packed-bed sensible heat thermocline storage tanks on the basis of the analytical model obtained by the Laplace transform. It is found that when the total amount of filler materials (i.e., the integration of porosity) is fixed, the different porosity distributions can result in the significantly-different behaviors of outlet temperature and thus the varied charging and discharging efficiencies. Our results indicate that a non-uniform distribution of the fillers with the proper design can improve the heat storage performance without changing the total amount of the filling materials.

Keywords: energy storage, heat thermocline storage tank, packed bed, transient thermal analysis

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5703 Numerical Investigation of Fluid Flow and Temperature Distribution on Power Transformer Windings Using Open Foam

Authors: Saeed Khandan Siar, Stefan Tenbohlen, Christian Breuer, Raphael Lebreton

Abstract:

The goal of this article is to investigate the detailed temperature distribution and the fluid flow of an oil cooled winding of a power transformer by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The experimental setup consists of three passes of a zig-zag cooled disc type winding, in which losses are modeled by heating cartridges in each winding segment. A precise temperature sensor measures the temperature of each turn. The laboratory setup allows the exact control of the boundary conditions, e.g. the oil flow rate and the inlet temperature. Furthermore, a simulation model is solved using the open source computational fluid dynamics solver OpenFOAM and validated with the experimental results. The model utilizes the laminar and turbulent flow for the different mass flow rate of the oil. The good agreement of the simulation results with experimental measurements validates the model.

Keywords: CFD, conjugated heat transfer, power transformers, temperature distribution

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5702 The Effect of Different Parameters on a Single Invariant Lateral Displacement Distribution to Consider the Higher Modes Effect in a Displacement-Based Pushover Procedure

Authors: Mohamad Amin Amini, Mehdi Poursha

Abstract:

Nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) is a robust analytical tool for estimating the seismic demands of structures responding in the inelastic range. However, because of its conceptual and numerical complications, the nonlinear static procedure (NSP) is being increasingly used as a suitable tool for seismic performance evaluation of structures. The conventional pushover analysis methods presented in various codes (FEMA 356; Eurocode-8; ATC-40), are limited to the first-mode-dominated structures, and cannot take higher modes effect into consideration. Therefore, since more than a decade ago, researchers developed enhanced pushover analysis procedures to take higher modes effect into account. The main objective of this study is to propose an enhanced invariant lateral displacement distribution to take higher modes effect into consideration in performing a displacement-based pushover analysis, whereby a set of laterally applied displacements, rather than forces, is monotonically applied to the structure. For this purpose, the effect of different parameters such as the spectral displacement of ground motion, the modal participation factor, and the effective modal participating mass ratio on the lateral displacement distribution is investigated to find the best distribution. The major simplification of this procedure is that the effect of higher modes is concentrated into a single invariant lateral load distribution. Therefore, only one pushover analysis is sufficient without any need to utilize a modal combination rule for combining the responses. The invariant lateral displacement distribution for pushover analysis is then calculated by combining the modal story displacements using the modal combination rules. The seismic demands resulting from the different procedures are compared to those from the more accurate nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) as a benchmark solution. Two structures of different heights including 10 and 20-story special steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) were selected and evaluated. Twenty ground motion records were used to conduct the NL-RHA. The results show that more accurate responses can be obtained in comparison with the conventional lateral loads when the enhanced modal lateral displacement distributions are used.

Keywords: displacement-based pushover, enhanced lateral load distribution, higher modes effect, nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA)

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5701 Culturable Diversity of Halophilic Bacteria in Chott Tinsilt, Algeria

Authors: Nesrine Lenchi, Salima Kebbouche-Gana, Laddada Belaid, Mohamed Lamine Khelfaoui, Mohamed Lamine Gana

Abstract:

Saline lakes are extreme hypersaline environments that are considered five to ten times saltier than seawater (150 – 300 g L-1 salt concentration). Hypersaline regions differ from each other in terms of salt concentration, chemical composition and geographical location, which determine the nature of inhabitant microorganisms. In order to explore the diversity of moderate and extreme halophiles Bacteria in Chott Tinsilt (East of Algeria), an isolation program was performed. In the first time, water samples were collected from the saltern during pre-salt harvesting phase. Salinity, pH and temperature of the sampling site were determined in situ. Chemical analysis of water sample indicated that Na +and Cl- were the most abundant ions. Isolates were obtained by plating out the samples in complex and synthetic media. In this study, seven halophiles cultures of Bacteria were isolated. Isolates were studied for Gram’s reaction, cell morphology and pigmentation. Enzymatic assays (oxidase, catalase, nitrate reductase and urease), and optimization of growth conditions were done. The results indicated that the salinity optima varied from 50 to 250 g L-1, whereas the optimum of temperature range from 25°C to 35°C. Molecular identification of the isolates was performed by sequencing the 16S rRNA gene. The results showed that these cultured isolates included members belonging to the Halomonas, Staphylococcus, Salinivibrio, Idiomarina, Halobacillus Thalassobacillus and Planococcus genera and what may represent a new bacterial genus.

Keywords: bacteria, Chott, halophilic, 16S rRNA

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5700 Numerical Approach of RC Structural MembersExposed to Fire and After-Cooling Analysis

Authors: Ju-young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak, Hong Jae Yim

Abstract:

This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical non-linearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, Prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC structures, heat transfer analysis, nonlinear analysis, after-cooling concrete model

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5699 Loss Allocation in Radial Distribution Networks for Loads of Composite Types

Authors: Sumit Banerjee, Chandan Kumar Chanda

Abstract:

The paper presents allocation of active power losses and energy losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment for loads of composite types. A detailed comparison among four algorithms, namely quadratic loss allocation, proportional loss allocation, pro rata loss allocation and exact loss allocation methods are presented. Quadratic and proportional loss allocations are based on identifying the active and reactive components of current in each branch and the losses are allocated to each consumer, pro rata loss allocation method is based on the load demand of each consumer and exact loss allocation method is based on the actual contribution of active power loss by each consumer. The effectiveness of the proposed comparison among four algorithms for composite load is demonstrated through an example.

Keywords: composite type, deregulation, loss allocation, radial distribution networks

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5698 Passenger Flow Characteristics of Seoul Metropolitan Subway Network

Authors: Kang Won Lee, Jung Won Lee

Abstract:

Characterizing the network flow is of fundamental importance to understand the complex dynamics of networks. And passenger flow characteristics of the subway network are very relevant for an effective transportation management in urban cities. In this study, passenger flow of Seoul metropolitan subway network is investigated and characterized through statistical analysis. Traditional betweenness centrality measure considers only topological structure of the network and ignores the transportation factors. This paper proposes a weighted betweenness centrality measure that incorporates monthly passenger flow volume. We apply the proposed measure on the Seoul metropolitan subway network involving 493 stations and 16 lines. Several interesting insights about the network are derived from the new measures. Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we also find out that monthly passenger flow between any two stations follows a power-law distribution and other traffic characteristics such as congestion level and throughflow traffic follow exponential distribution.

Keywords: betweenness centrality, correlation coefficient, power-law distribution, Korea traffic DB

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5697 Residual Stress Around Embedded Particles in Bulk YBa2Cu3Oy Samples

Authors: Anjela Koblischka-Veneva, Michael R. Koblischka

Abstract:

To increase the flux pinning performance of bulk YBa2Cu3O7-δ (YBCO or Y-123) superconductors, it is common to employ secondary phase particles, either Y2BaCuO5 (Y-211) particles created during the growth of the samples or additionally added (nano)particles of various types, embedded in the superconducting Y-123 matrix. As the crystallographic parameters of all the particles indicate a misfit to Y-123, there will be residual strain within the Y-123 matrix around such particles. With a dedicated analysis of electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) data obtained on various bulk, Y-123 superconductor samples, the strain distribution around such embedded secondary phase particles can be revealed. The results obtained are presented in form of Kernel Average Misorientation (KAM) mappings. Around large Y-211 particles, the strain can be so large that YBCO subgrains are formed. Therefore, it is essential to properly control the particle size as well as their distribution within the bulk sample to obtain the best performance. The impact of the strain distribution on the flux pinning properties is discussed.

Keywords: Bulk superconductors, EBSD, Strain, YBa2Cu3Oy

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5696 Automated Natural Hazard Zonation System with Internet-SMS Warning: Distributed GIS for Sustainable Societies Creating Schema and Interface for Mapping and Communication

Authors: Devanjan Bhattacharya, Jitka Komarkova

Abstract:

The research describes the implementation of a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning. The system uses all existing infrastructure already in place like mobile networks, a laptop/PC and the small installation software. The geospatial dataset are the maps of a region which are again frugal. Hence there is no need to invest and it reaches everyone with a mobile. A novel architecture of hazard assessment and warning introduced where major technologies in ICT interfaced to give a unique WebGIS based dynamic real time geohazard warning communication system. A never before architecture introduced for integrating WebGIS with telecommunication technology. Existing technologies interfaced in a novel architectural design to address a neglected domain in a way never done before–through dynamically updatable WebGIS based warning communication. The work publishes new architecture and novelty in addressing hazard warning techniques in sustainable way and user friendly manner. Coupling of hazard zonation and hazard warning procedures into a single system has been shown. Generalized architecture for deciphering a range of geo-hazards has been developed. Hence the developmental work presented here can be summarized as the development of internet-SMS based automated geo-hazard warning communication system; integrating a warning communication system with a hazard evaluation system; interfacing different open-source technologies towards design and development of a warning system; modularization of different technologies towards development of a warning communication system; automated data creation, transformation and dissemination over different interfaces. The architecture of the developed warning system has been functionally automated as well as generalized enough that can be used for any hazard and setup requirement has been kept to a minimum.

Keywords: geospatial, web-based GIS, geohazard, warning system

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5695 A Bayesian Parameter Identification Method for Thermorheological Complex Materials

Authors: Michael Anton Kraus, Miriam Schuster, Geralt Siebert, Jens Schneider

Abstract:

Polymers increasingly gained interest in construction materials over the last years in civil engineering applications. As polymeric materials typically show time- and temperature dependent material behavior, which is accounted for in the context of the theory of linear viscoelasticity. Within the context of this paper, the authors show, that some polymeric interlayers for laminated glass can not be considered as thermorheologically simple as they do not follow a simple TTSP, thus a methodology of identifying the thermorheologically complex constitutive bahavioir is needed. ‘Dynamical-Mechanical-Thermal-Analysis’ (DMTA) in tensile and shear mode as well as ‘Differential Scanning Caliometry’ (DSC) tests are carried out on the interlayer material ‘Ethylene-vinyl acetate’ (EVA). A navoel Bayesian framework for the Master Curving Process as well as the detection and parameter identification of the TTSPs along with their associated Prony-series is derived and applied to the EVA material data. To our best knowledge, this is the first time, an uncertainty quantification of the Prony-series in a Bayesian context is shown. Within this paper, we could successfully apply the derived Bayesian methodology to the EVA material data to gather meaningful Master Curves and TTSPs. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified. We found, that EVA needs two TTSPs with two associated Generalized Maxwell Models. As the methodology is kept general, the derived framework could be also applied to other thermorheologically complex polymers for parameter identification purposes.

Keywords: bayesian parameter identification, generalized Maxwell model, linear viscoelasticity, thermorheological complex

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5694 Initial Periodontal Therapy and Follow-up in a Periodontitis Patient: A Case Report

Authors: Yasir Karabacak

Abstract:

Objective: The aim of periodontal therapy is to control and eliminate inflammation in order halt disease progression. The initial periodontal therapy (IPT) including scaling and root planing (SRP) can control periodontal disease in most cases of periodontitis; also maintaining good oral hygiene by the patient is fundamental. The aim of this case report is to present IPT and to present 3-month follow-up results in a patient with periodontitis. Materials and Methods IPT of a 63-year-old non-smoker male with generalized periodontitis is presented. The patient had no history of systemic disease. The intraoral examination reveals marked gingival inflammation as well as plaque accumulation and significant calculus deposits. On radiographic examination, severe bone loss was evident. The patient was diagnosed with generalized advanced periodontitis. Initial periodontal therapy including oral hygiene instructions and quadrant-based SRP under local anesthesia was performed using hand and ultrasonic instruments. No antibiotics were prescribed. The patient was recalled 4 weeks after IPT. Results Favorable clinical improvement was obtained. Gingival inflammation was resolved significantly. A reduction of the mean probing depth from 2.4 mm at baseline to 1.9 mm was observed. The patient presented with a good standard of oral hygiene. The plaque scores decreased from 54.0% at baseline to 17.0%. In addition, the percentage of sites with bleeding on probing decreased from 80.0% at baseline to 44.0%. The patient was scheduled for maintenance therapy every three months. Conclusion: The level of oral hygiene has a great impact on periodontal treatment outcome and supports periodontal therapy properly.

Keywords: initial periodontal, therapy and follow-up in a periodontitis, patient, a case report

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5693 Evaluation of Newly Synthesized Steroid Derivatives Using In silico Molecular Descriptors and Chemometric Techniques

Authors: Milica Ž. Karadžić, Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Anamarija I. Mandić, Katarina Penov-Gaši, Andrea R. Nikolić, Aleksandar M. Oklješa

Abstract:

This study considered selection of the in silico molecular descriptors and the models for newly synthesized steroid derivatives description and their characterization using chemometric techniques. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were established and gave the best molecular descriptors for quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) modeling of the retention of the investigated molecules. MLR models were without multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors according to the variance inflation factor (VIF) values. Used molecular descriptors were ranked using generalized pair correlation method (GPCM). In this method, the significant difference between independent variables can be noticed regardless almost equal correlation between dependent variable. Generated MLR models were statistically and cross-validated and the best models were kept. Models were ranked using sum of ranking differences (SRD) method. According to this method, the most consistent QSRR model can be found and similarity or dissimilarity between the models could be noticed. In this study, SRD was performed using average values of experimentally observed data as a golden standard. Chemometric analysis was conducted in order to characterize newly synthesized steroid derivatives for further investigation regarding their potential biological activity and further synthesis. This article is based upon work from COST Action (CM1105), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: generalized pair correlation method, molecular descriptors, regression analysis, steroids, sum of ranking differences

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5692 Multi-Subpopulation Genetic Algorithm with Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Textile Batch Dyeing Scheduling Problem

Authors: Nhat-To Huynh, Chen-Fu Chien

Abstract:

Textile batch dyeing scheduling problem is complicated which includes batch formation, batch assignment on machines, batch sequencing with sequence-dependent setup time. Most manufacturers schedule their orders manually that are time consuming and inefficient. More power methods are needed to improve the solution. Motivated by the real needs, this study aims to propose approaches in which genetic algorithm is developed with multi-subpopulation and hybridised with estimation of distribution algorithm to solve the constructed problem for minimising the makespan. A heuristic algorithm is designed and embedded into the proposed algorithms to improve the ability to get out of the local optima. In addition, an empirical study is conducted in a textile company in Taiwan to validate the proposed approaches. The results have showed that proposed approaches are more efficient than simulated annealing algorithm.

Keywords: estimation of distribution algorithm, genetic algorithm, multi-subpopulation, scheduling, textile dyeing

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5691 Comparison of Heuristic Methods for Solving Traveling Salesman Problem

Authors: Regita P. Permata, Ulfa S. Nuraini

Abstract:

Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is the most studied problem in combinatorial optimization. In simple language, TSP can be described as a problem of finding a minimum distance tour to a city, starting and ending in the same city, and exactly visiting another city. In product distribution, companies often get problems in determining the minimum distance that affects the time allocation. In this research, we aim to apply TSP heuristic methods to simulate nodes as city coordinates in product distribution. The heuristics used are sub tour reversal, nearest neighbor, farthest insertion, cheapest insertion, nearest insertion, and arbitrary insertion. We have done simulation nodes using Euclidean distances to compare the number of cities and processing time, thus we get optimum heuristic method. The results show that the optimum heuristic methods are farthest insertion and nearest insertion. These two methods can be recommended to solve product distribution problems in certain companies.

Keywords: Euclidean, heuristics, simulation, TSP

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5690 Direct CP Violation in Baryonic B-Hadron Decays

Authors: C. Q. Geng, Y. K. Hsiao

Abstract:

We study direct CP-violating asymmetries (CPAs) in the baryonic B decays of B- -> p\bar{p}M and Λb decays of Λb ®pM andΛb -> J/ΨpM with M=π-, K-,ρ-,K*- based on the generalized factorization method in the standard model (SM). In particular, we show that the CPAs in the vector modes of B-®p\bar{p}K* and Λb -> p K*- can be as large as 20%. We also discuss the simplest purely baryonic decays of Λb-> p\bar{p}n, p\bar{p}Λ, Λ\bar{p}Λ, and Λ\bar{Λ}Λ. We point out that some of CPAs are promising to be measured by the current as well as future B facilities.

Keywords: CP violation, B decays, baryonic decays, Λb decays

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5689 Bottom-up Quantification of Mega Inter-Basin Water Transfer Vulnerability to Climate Change

Authors: Enze Zhang

Abstract:

Large numbers of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are constructed or proposed all around the world as solutions to water distribution and supply problems. Nowadays, as climate change warms the atmosphere, alters the hydrologic cycle, and perturbs water availability, large scale IBWTs which are sensitive to these water-related changes may carry significant risk. Given this reality, IBWTs have elicited great controversy and assessments of vulnerability to climate change are urgently needed worldwide. In this paper, we consider the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) in China as a case study, and introduce a bottom-up vulnerability assessment framework. Key hazards and risks related to climate change that threaten future water availability for the SNWTP are firstly identified. Then a performance indicator is presented to quantify the vulnerability of IBWT by taking three main elements (i.e., sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree) into account. A probabilistic Budyko model is adapted to estimate water availability responses to a wide range of possibilities for future climate conditions in each region of the study area. After bottom-up quantifying the vulnerability based on the estimated water availability, our findings confirm that SNWTP would greatly alleviate geographical imbalances in water availability under some moderate climate change scenarios but raises questions about whether it is a long-term solution because the donor basin has a high level of vulnerability due to extreme climate change.

Keywords: vulnerability, climate change, inter-basin water transfer, bottom-up

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5688 Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Absorption in DKI Jakarta Green Space

Authors: Mario Belseran

Abstract:

The issue of climate change become world attention where one of them increase in air temperature due to greenhouse gas emissions. This climate change is caused by gases in the atmosphere, one of which is CO2. DKI Jakarta as the capital has a dense population with a variety of existing land use. Land use that is dominated by settlements resulting in fewer green space, which functions to absorb atmospheric CO2. Image interpretation SPOT-7 is used to determine the greenness level of vegetation on a green space using the vegetation index NDVI, EVI, GNDVI and OSAVI. Measuring the diameter and height of trees were also performed to obtain the value of biomass that will be used as the CO2 absorption value. The CO2 absorption value that spread in Jakarta are classified into three classes: high, medium, and low. The distribution pattern of CO2 absorption value at green space in Jakarta dominance in the medium class with the distribution pattern is located in South Jakarta, East Jakarta, North Jakarta and West Jakarta. The distribution pattern of green space in Jakarta scattered randomly and more dominate in East Jakarta and South Jakarta

Keywords: carbon dioxide, DKI Jakarta, green space, SPOT-7, vegetation index

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5687 Superordinated Control for Increasing Feed-in Capacity and Improving Power Quality in Low Voltage Distribution Grids

Authors: Markus Meyer, Bastian Maucher, Rolf Witzmann

Abstract:

The ever increasing amount of distributed generation in low voltage distribution grids (mainly PV and micro-CHP) can lead to reverse load flows from low to medium/high voltage levels at times of high feed-in. Reverse load flow leads to rising voltages that may even exceed the limits specified in the grid codes. Furthermore, the share of electrical loads connected to low voltage distribution grids via switched power supplies continuously increases. In combination with inverter-based feed-in, this results in high harmonic levels reducing overall power quality. Especially high levels of third-order harmonic currents can lead to neutral conductor overload, which is even more critical if lines with reduced neutral conductor section areas are used. This paper illustrates a possible concept for smart grids in order to increase the feed-in capacity, improve power quality and to ensure safe operation of low voltage distribution grids at all times. The key feature of the concept is a hierarchically structured control strategy that is run on a superordinated controller, which is connected to several distributed grid analyzers and inverters via broad band powerline (BPL). The strategy is devised to ensure both quick response time as well as the technically and economically reasonable use of the available inverters in the grid (PV-inverters, batteries, stepless line voltage regulators). These inverters are provided with standard features for voltage control, e.g. voltage dependent reactive power control. In addition they can receive reactive power set points transmitted by the superordinated controller. To further improve power quality, the inverters are capable of active harmonic filtering, as well as voltage balancing, whereas the latter is primarily done by the stepless line voltage regulators. By additionally connecting the superordinated controller to the control center of the grid operator, supervisory control and data acquisition capabilities for the low voltage distribution grid are enabled, which allows easy monitoring and manual input. Such a low voltage distribution grid can also be used as a virtual power plant.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution grid, power quality, smart grid, virtual power plant, voltage control

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5686 Magnetic and Optical Properties of Quaternary GaFeMnN

Authors: B. Bouadjemi, S. Bentata, A. Abbad, W.Benstaali

Abstract:

The full-potential linearized augmented plane wave method (FP-LAPW) within the Generalized Gradient Approximation (GGA) is used to calculate the magnetic and optical properties of quaternary GaFeMnN. The results show that the compound becomes magnetic and half metallic and there is an apparition of peaks at low frequencies for the optical properties.

Keywords: optical properties, DFT, Spintronic, wave

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5685 Nonparametric Truncated Spline Regression Model on the Data of Human Development Index in Indonesia

Authors: Kornelius Ronald Demu, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

Abstract:

Human Development Index (HDI) is a standard measurement for a country's human development. Several factors may have influenced it, such as life expectancy, gross domestic product (GDP) based on the province's annual expenditure, the number of poor people, and the percentage of an illiterate people. The scatter plot between HDI and the influenced factors show that the plot does not follow a specific pattern or form. Therefore, the HDI's data in Indonesia can be applied with a nonparametric regression model. The estimation of the regression curve in the nonparametric regression model is flexible because it follows the shape of the data pattern. One of the nonparametric regression's method is a truncated spline. Truncated spline regression is one of the nonparametric approach, which is a modification of the segmented polynomial functions. The estimator of a truncated spline regression model was affected by the selection of the optimal knots point. Knot points is a focus point of spline truncated functions. The optimal knots point was determined by the minimum value of generalized cross validation (GCV). In this article were applied the data of Human Development Index with a truncated spline nonparametric regression model. The results of this research were obtained the best-truncated spline regression model to the HDI's data in Indonesia with the combination of optimal knots point 5-5-5-4. Life expectancy and the percentage of an illiterate people were the significant factors depend to the HDI in Indonesia. The coefficient of determination is 94.54%. This means the regression model is good enough to applied on the data of HDI in Indonesia.

Keywords: generalized cross validation (GCV), Human Development Index (HDI), knots point, nonparametric regression, truncated spline

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5684 Exploring the Correlation between Population Distribution and Urban Heat Island under Urban Data: Taking Shenzhen Urban Heat Island as an Example

Authors: Wang Yang

Abstract:

Shenzhen is a modern city of China's reform and opening-up policy, the development of urban morphology has been established on the administration of the Chinese government. This city`s planning paradigm is primarily affected by the spatial structure and human behavior. The subjective urban agglomeration center is divided into several groups and centers. In comparisons of this effect, the city development law has better to be neglected. With the continuous development of the internet, extensive data technology has been introduced in China. Data mining and data analysis has become important tools in municipal research. Data mining has been utilized to improve data cleaning such as receiving business data, traffic data and population data. Prior to data mining, government data were collected by traditional means, then were analyzed using city-relationship research, delaying the timeliness of urban development, especially for the contemporary city. Data update speed is very fast and based on the Internet. The city's point of interest (POI) in the excavation serves as data source affecting the city design, while satellite remote sensing is used as a reference object, city analysis is conducted in both directions, the administrative paradigm of government is broken and urban research is restored. Therefore, the use of data mining in urban analysis is very important. The satellite remote sensing data of the Shenzhen city in July 2018 were measured by the satellite Modis sensor and can be utilized to perform land surface temperature inversion, and analyze city heat island distribution of Shenzhen. This article acquired and classified the data from Shenzhen by using Data crawler technology. Data of Shenzhen heat island and interest points were simulated and analyzed in the GIS platform to discover the main features of functional equivalent distribution influence. Shenzhen is located in the east-west area of China. The city’s main streets are also determined according to the direction of city development. Therefore, it is determined that the functional area of the city is also distributed in the east-west direction. The urban heat island can express the heat map according to the functional urban area. Regional POI has correspondence. The research result clearly explains that the distribution of the urban heat island and the distribution of urban POIs are one-to-one correspondence. Urban heat island is primarily influenced by the properties of the underlying surface, avoiding the impact of urban climate. Using urban POIs as analysis object, the distribution of municipal POIs and population aggregation are closely connected, so that the distribution of the population corresponded with the distribution of the urban heat island.

Keywords: POI, satellite remote sensing, the population distribution, urban heat island thermal map

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5683 Side Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine Investigated by Radiology

Authors: Mahdi Farajzadeh Ajirlou

Abstract:

The detailed serious adverse effects raised the stresses around the safety of individuals who have gotten COVID-19 vaccines. Numerous verification referrers that disease with COV-19 causes neurological dysfunction in a significant proportion of influenced patients, where these side effects show up seriously amid the disease, and still less is known approximately the potential long-term results for the brain, where the loss of olfaction could be a neurological sign and simple indications of COVID-19. Since publishing effective clinical trial results of mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and injecting it to the volunteers in 2020, numerous reports have emerged approximately about cardiovascular complications followed by the mRNA vaccination. Vaccination-associated adenopathy could be a constant imaging finding after the organization of COVID-19 antibodies that will lead to a symptomatic problem in patients with shown or suspected cancer, in whom it may be vague from dangerous nodal inclusion. In spite of all the benefits and viability of the coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19) antibodies specified in later clinical trials, a few other post-vaccination side impacts, such as lymphadenopathy (LAP), were observed. Also, numerous variables, including financial conditions, have played a critical part in expanding the number of people with COVID-19 infection and also much more side effects in that country. Amid the Coronavirus widespread, Iran has been experiencing extreme sanctions, which has faced this nation with an extreme financial crisis. Additionally, with COVID-19 widespread, there was a developing concern around the abuse of imaging exams extraordinarily within the pediatric populace, which highlights the issues pointed out by this review.

Keywords: radiology, vaccines, COVID-19, side effect

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5682 Genetic Polymorphisms of the Human Organic Cation Transporter 2 gene, SLC22A2, in the Zulu population

Authors: N. Hoosain, S. Nene, B. Pearce, C. Jacobs, M. Du Plessis, M. Benjeddou

Abstract:

Organic Cation Transporters play a vital role in the absorption, tissue distribution and elimination of various substrates. Numerous studies have suggested that variations in non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of SLC22A2 could influence an individual’s response to various treatments, including clinically important drugs. This study is the first to determine the baseline frequency distribution for twenty SNPs of SLC22A2in the Zulu population. DNA was collected from 101 unrelated “healthy” Zulu participants. Genotypes of all samples were determined using a multiplex PCR and SNaPshot assay followed by the generation of the haplotype structure. This is the first time that the baseline frequency distribution of SNPs is reported for the Zulu population. Data from this study could be used in in vitro and in vivo pharmacogenetic and pharmacokinetic studies to evaluate the potential role the studied SNPs play in the therapeutic efficacy of clinically important drugs.

Keywords: SLC22A2 gene, SNaPshot assay, PCR, Zulu population

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5681 Characterizing the Spatially Distributed Differences in the Operational Performance of Solar Power Plants Considering Input Volatility: Evidence from China

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Xian-Peng Chen

Abstract:

China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer, and its development of renewable energy is of great significance to global energy governance and the fight against climate change. The rapid growth of solar power in China could help achieve its ambitious carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets early. However, the non-technical costs of solar power in China are much higher than at international levels, meaning that inefficiencies are rooted in poor management and improper policy design and that efficiency distortions have become a serious challenge to the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry. Unlike fossil energy generation technologies, the output of solar power is closely related to the volatile solar resource, and the spatial unevenness of solar resource distribution leads to potential efficiency spatial distribution differences. It is necessary to develop an efficiency evaluation method that considers the volatility of solar resources and explores the mechanism of the influence of natural geography and social environment on the spatially varying characteristics of efficiency distribution to uncover the root causes of managing inefficiencies. The study sets solar resources as stochastic inputs, introduces a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis model combined with the directional distance function, and measures the solar resource utilization efficiency of 222 solar power plants in representative photovoltaic bases in northwestern China. By the meta-frontier analysis, we measured the characteristics of different power plant clusters and compared the differences among groups, discussed the mechanism of environmental factors influencing inefficiencies, and performed statistical tests through the system generalized method of moments. Rational localization of power plants is a systematic project that requires careful consideration of the full utilization of solar resources, low transmission costs, and power consumption guarantee. Suitable temperature, precipitation, and wind speed can improve the working performance of photovoltaic modules, reasonable terrain inclination can reduce land cost, and the proximity to cities strongly guarantees the consumption of electricity. The density of electricity demand and high-tech industries is more important than resource abundance because they trigger the clustering of power plants to result in a good demonstration and competitive effect. To ensure renewable energy consumption, increased support for rural grids and encouraging direct trading between generators and neighboring users will provide solutions. The study will provide proposals for improving the full life-cycle operational activities of solar power plants in China to reduce high non-technical costs and improve competitiveness against fossil energy sources.

Keywords: solar power plants, environmental factors, data envelopment analysis, efficiency evaluation

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5680 The White Stork (Ciconia ciconia) in the Wetlands of North East of Algeria

Authors: Aicha Beya Mammeria, Idir Bitam

Abstract:

Our study focuses on the distribution of the white stork "Ciconia ciconia L. 1758" in the wetlands of El Tarf (North eastern of Algeria): recognized by its remarkable number of breeding pairs, monitoring of nesting, using a GPS has been performed in an attempt to explain the functioning of populations and population strategies for an overall design of its distribution, which has not so far been investigated in this region. Between 2012 and 2013, the number of breeding pairs has increased considerably from 174 in 1996 to 475 in 2007 and 968 in 2013. It should be noted that in the distribution of breeding pairs between 1996 and 2011, there is a significant development since the density of nests increased from 25.22 in 1996 to 84.16 couples/100 km² in 2013. More endemic bread apears in the region, this fluctuation is related to climatic change and changing season. Changes related to local climatic conditions might induce binding conditions for the development of this species.

Keywords: white stork, Ciconia ciconia, wetland El Tarf, northeast Algeria, climatic changing, density

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5679 Alternator Fault Detection Using Wigner-Ville Distribution

Authors: Amin Ranjbar, Amir Arsalan Jalili Zolfaghari, Amir Abolfazl Suratgar, Mehrdad Khajavi

Abstract:

This paper describes two stages of learning-based fault detection procedure in alternators. The procedure consists of three states of machine condition namely shortened brush, high impedance relay and maintaining a healthy condition in the alternator. The fault detection algorithm uses Wigner-Ville distribution as a feature extractor and also appropriate feature classifier. In this work, ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and also SVM (support vector machine) were compared to determine more suitable performance evaluated by the mean squared of errors criteria. Modules work together to detect possible faulty conditions of machines working. To test the method performance, a signal database is prepared by making different conditions on a laboratory setup. Therefore, it seems by implementing this method, satisfactory results are achieved.

Keywords: alternator, artificial neural network, support vector machine, time-frequency analysis, Wigner-Ville distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 360