Search results for: decision to export

Authors: Danica Maljkovic, Igor Balen, Bojana Dalbelo Basic

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Following the regulation of EU Directive on Energy Efficiency, specifically Article 9, individual metering in district heating systems has to be introduced by the end of 2016. These directions have been implemented in member state’s legal framework, Croatia is one of these states. The directive allows installation of both heat metering devices and heat cost allocators. Mainly due to bad communication and PR, the general public false image was created that the heat cost allocators are devices that save energy. Although this notion is wrong, the aim of this work is to develop a model that would precisely express the influence of installation heat cost allocators on potential energy savings in each unit within multifamily buildings. At the same time, in recent years, a science of machine learning has gain larger application in various fields, as it is proven to give good results in cases where large amounts of data are to be processed with an aim to recognize a pattern and correlation of each of the relevant parameter as well as in the cases where the problem is too complex for a human intelligence to solve. A special method of machine learning, decision tree method, has proven an accuracy of over 92% in prediction general building consumption. In this paper, a machine learning algorithms will be used to isolate the sole impact of installation of heat cost allocators on a single building in multifamily houses connected to district heating systems. Special emphasises will be given regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method.

Keywords: district heating, heat cost allocator, energy efficiency, machine learning, decision tree model, regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method

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Authors: Muhammad Shafiq, Huynh Trung Luong

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In this paper, we proposed a commitment based revenue sharing contract for a supply chain comprising one manufacturer and one retailer facing highly uncertain demand of a short life span fashionable product. In our model, the retailer reserves a commitment level with the manufacturer prior to the selling season. In response, the manufacturer allocates and produces a specific quantity which is the maximum available quantity for the retailer. The retailer is motivated to commit more by offering higher revenue sharing percentage for reserved capacity than non-reserved capacity. Due to asymmetric information, it is found that the manufacturer can optimize quantity allocation decision while the commitment level decision of the retailer may not be optimal.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, revenue sharing contract, commitment based revenue sharing, quantity allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Shajida M., Sakthiyadharshini N. P., Kamalesh S., Aswitha B.

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Natural Language Processing (NLP) continues to play a strategic part in complaint discovery and medicine discovery during the current epidemic. This abstract provides an overview of performance analysis with a combination of visualization and classification techniques of NLP for a medical chatbot. Sentiment analysis is an important aspect of NLP that is used to determine the emotional tone behind a piece of text. This technique has been applied to various domains, including medical chatbots. In this, we have compared the combination of the decision tree with heatmap and Naïve Bayes with Word Cloud. The performance of the chatbot was evaluated using accuracy, and the results indicate that the combination of visualization and classification techniques significantly improves the chatbot's performance.

Keywords: sentimental analysis, NLP, medical chatbot, decision tree, heatmap, naïve bayes, word cloud

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Authors: Assem El-Ansary

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This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Multi-Agent TeleRobotic Security Control System (MTSCS). The event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and the development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, multi-agent, TeleRobotics control, security, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

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Authors: Jamila Garba Audu, Peter Adamu

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This study investigates the role of forensic accounting in the fight against corruption in Nigeria for better utilization of public funds and economic growth and development of the Country. We adopted a trend analysis to show the performance of the Nigerian economy as well as the quality of institutions which government economic and political activities in the country. It is an established fact that Nigeria has performed badly since the 1960s to date in terms of institutional quality and economic development despite large amount of money obtained from the export of crude oil. It was revealed also that the fight against corruption has not been very successful in recent times because experts in the field of forensic accounting have not been utilized. With the successes recorded in dealing with fraud and embezzlement using forensic accounting, it has become imperative for the EFCC to use forensic accountants in the fight against corruption in the country. Also, there is the need to introduce very seriously, the teaching of forensic accounting in Nigerian Universities to train experts.

Keywords: corruption, economic performance, forensic accounting, Nigeria

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Authors: Mahmoudi Marwa, Bahim Nadhem, Aydi Abdelwaheb, Issaoui Wissal, S. Najet

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This work represents a coupling between the geographic information system (GIS) and the multicriteria analysis aiming at the selection of an artificial recharge site by the treated wastewater for the Ariana governorate. On regional characteristics, bibliography and available data on artificial recharge, 13 constraints and 5 factors were hierarchically structured for the adequacy of an artificial recharge. The factors are subdivided into two main groups: environmental factors and economic factors. The adopted methodology allows a preliminary assessment of a recharge site, the weighted linear combination (WLC) and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in a GIS. The standardization of the criteria is carried out by the application of the different membership functions. The form and control points of the latter are defined by the consultation of the experts. The weighting of the selected criteria is allocated according to relative importance using the AHP methodology. The weighted linear combination (WLC) integrates the different criteria and factors to delineate the most suitable areas for artificial recharge site selection by treated wastewater. The results of this study showed three potential candidate sites that appear when environmental factors are more important than economic factors. These sites are ranked in descending order using the ELECTRE III method. Nevertheless, decision making for the selection of an artificial recharge site will depend on the decision makers in force.

Keywords: artificial recharge site, treated wastewater, analytical hierarchy process, ELECTRE III

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Authors: E. Koyuncu

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The problem of Order Acceptance and Scheduling (OAS) is defined as a joint decision of which orders to accept for processing and how to schedule them. Any linear programming model representing real-world situation involves the parameters defined by the decision maker in an uncertain way or by means of language statement. Fuzzy data can be used to incorporate vagueness in the real-life situation. In this study, a fuzzy mathematical model is proposed for a single machine OAS problem, where the orders are defined by their fuzzy due dates, fuzzy processing times, and fuzzy sequence dependent setup times. The signed distance method, one of the fuzzy ranking methods, is used to handle the fuzzy constraints in the model.

Keywords: fuzzy mathematical programming, fuzzy ranking, order acceptance, single machine scheduling

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Authors: Luis Javier Serrano Tamayo

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This research on technology makes a first approach to the selection of an amphibious landing ship with strategic capabilities, through the implementation of a multi-criteria model using Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), in which a significant group of alternatives of latest technology has been considered. The variables were grouped at different levels to match design and performance characteristics, which affect the lifecycle as well as the acquisition, maintenance and operational costs. The model yielded an overall measure of effectiveness and an overall measure of cost of each kind of ship that was compared each other inside the model and showed in a Pareto chart. The modeling was developed using the Expert Choice software, based on AHP method.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision-making, Pareto analysis, Colombian Marine Corps, projection operations, expert choice, amphibious landing ship

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Authors: Fuqiang Wang, Jun Liu, Liyan Cai

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This paper investigates the coordination of the conflicting two-stage low carbon supply chain consisting of upstream and downstream manufacturers. The conflict means that the upstream manufacturer takes action for carbon emissions reduction under carbon trading mechanism while the downstream manufacturer’s production cost rises. It assumes for the Stackelberg game that the upstream manufacturer plays as a leader and the downstream manufacturer does as a follower. Four kinds of the situation of decentralized decision making, centralized decision-making, the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract under decentralized decision making are considered. The backward induction approach is adopted to solve the game. The results show that the more intense the conflict is, the lower the efficiency of carbon emissions reduction and the higher the retail price is. The optimal investment of the decentralized supply chain under the two contracts is unchanged and still lower than that of the centralized supply chain. Both the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract cannot coordinate the supply chain, because that the sharing cost or carbon emissions reduction sharing revenue will transfer through the wholesale price mechanism. As a result, it requires more complicated contract forms to coordinate such a supply chain.

Keywords: cap-and-trade mechanism, carbon emissions reduction, conflict, supply chain coordination

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Authors: Sultan Ghaleb Aldaihani

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- The environment in which educational leadership takes place is becoming increasingly complex due to factors like globalization and rapid technological change. - This is creating a "leadership gap" where the complexity of the environment outpaces the ability of leaders to effectively respond. - Educational leadership involves guiding teachers and the broader school system towards improved student learning and achievement. 2. Implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Educational Leadership: - AI has great potential to enhance education, such as through intelligent tutoring systems and automating routine tasks to free up teachers. - AI can also have significant implications for educational leadership by providing better information and data-driven decision-making capabilities. - Computer-adaptive testing can provide detailed, individualized data on student learning that leaders can use for instructional decisions and accountability. 3. Enhancing Decision-Making Processes: - Statistical models and data mining techniques can help identify at-risk students earlier, allowing for targeted interventions. - Probability-based models can diagnose students likely to drop out, enabling proactive support. - These data-driven approaches can make resource allocation and decision-making more effective. 4. Improving Efficiency and Productivity: - AI systems can automate tasks and change processes to improve the efficiency of educational leadership and administration. - Integrating AI can free up leaders to focus more on their role's human, interactive elements.

Keywords: Education, Leadership, Technology, Artificial Intelligence

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Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

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Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: operator cost, bi-level optimization model, user cost, urban transportation

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Authors: Mai Kaneda, Sarah Feeney

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This study examined the association between adult attachment security and career decision-making self-efficacy (CDMSE) among college students in the United States. Previous studies show that attachment security is associated with levels of CDMSE among college students. Given that a majority of studies examining career development variables have used parental attachment measures, this study adds to understanding of this phenomenon by utilizing a broader measure of attachment. The participants included 269 college students (76% female) between the ages of 19-29. An anonymous survey was distributed online via social media as well as in hard copy format in classrooms. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the relationship between anxious and avoidant attachment and CDMSE. Results revealed anxious attachment was a significant predictor of CDMSE (B = -.13, p = .01), such that greater anxiety in attachment was associated with lower levels of CDMSE. When accounting for anxious attachment, avoidant attachment was no longer significant as a predictor of CDMSE (B = -.12, p = .10). The variance in college CDMSE explained by the model was 7%, F(2,267) = 9.51, p < .001. Results for anxious attachment are consistent with existing literature that finds insecure attachment to be related to lower levels of CDMSE, however the non-significant results for avoidant attachment as a predictor of CDMSE suggest not all types of attachment insecurity are equally related to CDMSE. Future research is needed to explore the nature of the relationship between different dimensions of attachment insecurity and CDMSE.

Keywords: attachment, career decision-making, college students, self-efficacy

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Authors: Vânia Costa, Nuno De Sá Teixeira, Ana C. Santos, Eduardo Santos

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Financial literacy and numeracy have been regarded as paramount for rational household decision making in the increasing complexity of financial markets. However, financial decisions are often made under sub-optimal circumstances, including cognitive overload. The present study aims to clarify how financial literacy and numeracy, taken as relevant expert knowledge for financial decision-making, modulate possible effects of cognitive load. Participants were required to perform a choice between a sure loss or a gambling pertaining a financial investment, either with or without a competing memory task. Two experiments were conducted varying only the content of the competing task. In the first, the financial choice task was made while maintaining on working memory a list of five random letters. In the second, cognitive load was based upon the retention of six random digits. In both experiments, one of the items in the list had to be recalled given its serial position. Outcomes of the first experiment revealed no significant main effect or interactions involving cognitive load manipulation and numeracy and financial literacy skills, strongly suggesting that retaining a list of random letters did not interfere with the cognitive abilities required for financial decision making. Conversely, and in the second experiment, a significant interaction between the competing mnesic task and level of financial literacy (but not numeracy) was found for the frequency of choice of a gambling option. Overall, and in the control condition, both participants with high financial literacy and high numeracy were more prone to choose the gambling option. However, and when under cognitive load, participants with high financial literacy were as likely as their illiterate counterparts to choose the gambling option. This outcome is interpreted as evidence that financial literacy prevents intuitive risk-aversion reasoning only under highly favourable conditions, as is the case when no other task is competing for cognitive resources. In contrast, participants with higher levels of numeracy were consistently more prone to choose the gambling option in both experimental conditions. These results are discussed in the light of the opposition between classical dual-process theories and fuzzy-trace theories for intuitive decision making, suggesting that while some instances of expertise (as numeracy) are prone to support easily accessible gist representations, other expert skills (as financial literacy) depend upon deliberative processes. It is furthermore suggested that this dissociation between types of expert knowledge might depend on the degree to which they are generalizable across disparate settings. Finally, applied implications of the present study are discussed with a focus on how it informs financial regulators and the importance and limits of promoting financial literacy and general numeracy.

Keywords: decision making, cognitive load, financial literacy, numeracy

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Authors: Saimatun Nisa

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Walnut is an important export product from the Union Territory of Jammy and Kashmir. After extraction of the kernel, the walnut shell forms a solid waste that needs to be managed. Pyrolysis is one interesting option for the utilization of this walnut waste. In this study microwave pyrolysis reactor is used to convert the walnut shell biomass into its value-added products. Catalytic and non-catalytic conversion of walnut shell waste to oil, gas and char was evaluated using a Co-based catalyst. The catalyst was characterized using XPS and SEM analysis. Pyrolysis temperature, reaction time, particle size and sweeping gas (N₂) flow rate were set in the ranges of 400–600 °C, 40 min, <0.6mm to < 4.75mm and 300 ml min−1, respectively. The heating rate was fixed at 40 °C min−1. Maximum gas yield was obtained at 600 °C, 40 min, particle size range 1.18-2.36, 0.5 molar catalytic as 45.2%. The liquid product catalytic and non-catalytic was characterized by GC–MS analyses. In addition, the solid product was analyzed by means of FTIR & SEM.

Keywords: walnut shell, biooil, biochar, microwave pyrolysis

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Authors: S. Niamkaeo, O. Robert, O. Chaowalit

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In this investigation, we focus on discovering spatial relationship of drug smuggling along the northern border of Thailand. Thailand is no longer a drug production site, but Thailand is still one of the major drug trafficking hubs due to its topographic characteristics facilitating drug smuggling from neighboring countries. Our study areas cover three districts (Mae-jan, Mae-fahluang, and Mae-sai) in Chiangrai city and four districts (Chiangdao, Mae-eye, Chaiprakarn, and Wienghang) in Chiangmai city where drug smuggling of methamphetamine crystal and amphetamine occurs mostly. The data on drug smuggling incidents from 2011 to 2017 was collected from several national and local published news. Geo-spatial drug smuggling database was prepared. Decision tree algorithm was applied in order to discover the spatial relationship of factors related to drug smuggling, which was converted into rules using rule-based system. The factors including land use type, smuggling route, season and distance within 500 meters from check points were found that they were related to drug smuggling in terms of rules-based relationship. It was illustrated that drug smuggling was occurred mostly in forest area in winter. Drug smuggling exhibited was discovered mainly along topographic road where check points were not reachable. This spatial relationship of drug smuggling could support the Thai Office of Narcotics Control Board in surveillance drug smuggling.

Keywords: decision tree, drug smuggling, Geographic Information System, GIS knowledge discovery, rule-based system

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Authors: Pınar Aydın, Şule Turhan

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Today, with the change of people's consumption habits, the importance of frozen fruit and vegetable sector has been increased. In Turkey, sector is based on export. It is growing very fast and external demand is constantly increasing. About 80% of frozen fruits and vegetables produced in Turkey are being exported. More than 90% of the exports go to European Union countries. About 49% of frozen fruits and vegetables in Turkey is being exported to Germany, England and France. In the sector which the abroad demand is continuously increasing, although it has been estimated that around 25% of the average annual growth rate, the domestic consumption is very low. Although the frozen food consumption per person in Turkey is about %2 of United States, the growing rate of the sector is higher than the United States and Europe. This situation reflects that it is such a sector that has a growing demand in both domestic and foreign markets.

Keywords: frozen food, fruit and vegetable sector, exports, Turkey

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Authors: Hee Jin Kang

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Despite numerous studies on the reserves and availability of natural gas hydrates, the technology of transporting natural gas hydrates in large quantities to sea has not been put into practical use. Several natural gas hydrate transport technologies presented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are under preparation for commercialization. Among them, NGH tank container concept modularized transportation unit to prevent sintering effect during sea transportation. The natural gas hydrate can be vaporized in a certain part during the transportation. Unprocessed BOG increases the pressure inside the tank. Also, there is a risk of fire if you export the BOG out of the tank without proper handling. Therefore, in this study, we have studied the concept of technology to properly process BOG to modularize natural gas hydrate and to transport it to sea for long distance. The study is expected to contribute to the practical use of NGH tank container, which is a modular transport concept proposed to solve the sintering problem that occurs when transporting natural gas hydrate in the form of bulk cargo.

Keywords: Natural gas hydrate, tank container, marine transportation, boil-off gas

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Authors: Neha Ahirwar

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In the contemporary digital era, the rise of credit card fraud poses a significant threat to both financial institutions and consumers. As fraudulent activities become more sophisticated, there is an escalating demand for robust and effective fraud detection mechanisms. Advanced machine learning algorithms have become crucial tools in addressing this challenge. This paper conducts a thorough examination of the design and evaluation of a credit card fraud detection system, utilizing four prominent machine learning algorithms: random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, and XGBoost. The surge in digital transactions has opened avenues for fraudsters to exploit vulnerabilities within payment systems. Consequently, there is an urgent need for proactive and adaptable fraud detection systems. This study addresses this imperative by exploring the efficacy of machine learning algorithms in identifying fraudulent credit card transactions. The selection of random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, and XGBoost for scrutiny in this study is based on their documented effectiveness in diverse domains, particularly in credit card fraud detection. These algorithms are renowned for their capability to model intricate patterns and provide accurate predictions. Each algorithm is implemented and evaluated for its performance in a controlled environment, utilizing a diverse dataset comprising both genuine and fraudulent credit card transactions.

Keywords: efficient credit card fraud detection, random forest, logistic regression, XGBoost, decision tree

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Authors: Ahmed Abdulghani Taha, Mohammad Abdulghani Taha

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This study aims at being acquainted with the using the body fat percentage (%BF) with body Mass Index (BMI) as input parameters in fuzzy logic decision support system to predict properly the lifted weight for students at weightlifting class lift according to his abilities instead of traditional manner. The sample included 53 male students (age = 21.38 ± 0.71 yrs, height (Hgt) = 173.17 ± 5.28 cm, body weight (BW) = 70.34 ± 7.87.6 kg, Body mass index (BMI) 23.42 ± 2.06 kg.m-2, fat mass (FM) = 9.96 ± 3.15 kg and fat percentage (% BF) = 13.98 ± 3.51 %.) experienced the weightlifting class as a credit and has variance at BW, Hgt and BMI and FM. BMI and % BF were taken as input parameters in FUZZY logic whereas the output parameter was the lifted weight (LW). There were statistical differences between LW values before and after using fuzzy logic (Diff 3.55± 2.21, P > 0.001). The percentages of the LW categories proposed by fuzzy logic were 3.77% of students to lift 1.0 fold of their bodies; 50.94% of students to lift 0.95 fold of their bodies; 33.96% of students to lift 0.9 fold of their bodies; 3.77% of students to lift 0.85 fold of their bodies and 7.55% of students to lift 0.8 fold of their bodies. The study concluded that the characteristic changes in body composition experienced by students when undergoing weightlifting could be utilized side by side with the Fuzzy logic decision support system to determine the proper workloads consistent with the abilities of students.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, body mass index, body fat percentage, weightlifting

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Authors: Ahmad Mohsin, Syda Fatima, Falak Nawaz, Aman Ullah Khan

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Selection of an appropriate architectural style is vital to the success of target web service under development. The nature of architecture design and selection for service-oriented computing applications is quite different as compared to traditional software. Web Services have complex and rigorous architectural styles to choose. Due to this, selection for accurate architectural style for web services development has become a more complex decision to be made by architects. Architectural style selection is a multi-criteria decision and demands lots of experience in service oriented computing. Decision support systems are good solutions to simplify the selection process of a particular architectural style. Our research suggests a new approach using DSS for selection of architectural styles while developing a web service to cater FRs and NFRs. Our proposed DSS helps architects to select right web service architectural pattern according to the domain and non-functional requirements. In this paper, a rule base DSS has been developed using CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) to support decisions using multi-criteria requirements. This DSS takes architectural characteristics, domain requirements and software architect preferences for NFRs as input for different architectural styles in use today in service-oriented computing. Weighted sum model has been applied to prioritize quality attributes and domain requirements. Scores are calculated using multiple criterions to choose the final architecture style.

Keywords: software architecture, web-service, rule-based, DSS, multi-criteria requirements, quality attributes

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Authors: Konstantinos Tolidis

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The mountains are amongst the most fragile environments in the world. The world’s mountain areas cover 24% of the Earth’s land surface and are home to 12% of the global population. A further 14% of the global population is estimated to live in the vicinity of their surrounding areas. As urbanization continues to increase in the world, the mountains are also key centers for recreation and tourism; their attraction is often heightened by their remarkably high levels of biodiversity. Due to the fact that the features in mountain areas vary spatially (development degree, human geography, socio-economic reality, relations of dependency and interaction with other areas-regions), the spatial planning on these areas consists of a crucial process for preserving the natural, cultural and human environment and consists of one of the major processes of an integrated spatial policy. This research has been focused on the spatial decision problem of land use allocation optimization which is an ordinary planning problem on the mountain areas. It is a matter of fact that such decisions must be made not only on what to do, how much to do, but also on where to do, adding a whole extra class of decision variables to the problem when combined with the consideration of spatial optimization. The utility of optimization as a normative tool for spatial problem is widely recognized. However, it is very difficult for planners to quantify the weights of the objectives especially when these are related to mountain areas. Furthermore, the land use allocation optimization problems at mountain areas must be addressed not only by taking into account the general development objectives but also the spatial objectives (e.g. compactness, compatibility and accessibility, etc). Therefore, the main research’s objective was to approach the land use allocation problem by utilizing a hybrid meta-heuristic optimization technique tailored to the mountain areas’ spatial characteristics. The results indicates that the proposed methodological approach is very promising and useful for both generating land use alternatives for further consideration in land use allocation decision-making and supporting spatial management plans at mountain areas.

Keywords: multiobjective land use allocation, mountain areas, spatial planning, spatial decision making, meta-heuristic methods

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Authors: Ravi Patel, Krishna K. Krishnan

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In global supply chains, appropriate and sustainable suppliers play a vital role in supply chain development and feasibility. In a larger organization with huge number of suppliers, it is necessary to divide suppliers based on their past history of quality and delivery of each product category. Since performance of any organization widely depends on their suppliers, well evaluated selection criteria and decision-making models lead to improved supplier assessment and development. In this paper, SCOR® performance evaluation approach and ISO standards are used to determine selection criteria for better utilization of supplier assessment by using hybrid model of Analytic Hierchchy Problem (AHP) and Fuzzy Techniques for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS). AHP is used to determine the global weightage of criteria which helps TOPSIS to get supplier score by using triangular fuzzy set theory. Both qualitative and quantitative criteria are taken into consideration for the proposed model. In addition, a multi-product and multi-time period model is selected for order allocation. The optimization model integrates multi-objective integer linear programming (MOILP) for order allocation and a hybrid approach for supplier selection. The proposed MOILP model optimizes order allocation based on manufacturing process and product tolerances as per manufacturer’s requirement for quality product. The integrated model and solution approach are tested to find optimized solutions for different scenario. The detailed analysis shows the superiority of proposed model over other solutions which considered individual decision making models.

Keywords: AHP, fuzzy set theory, multi-criteria decision making, multi-objective integer linear programming, TOPSIS

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Authors: Katejarinporn Chaiya, Jarumon Nookong, Nutthapat Kaewrattanapat

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The purposes of this research were to develop and find users’ satisfaction after using the Decision Support System for Examination Selection. This research presents the design of information systems. In order to find the necessary examination of the statistics. Based on the examination of the candidate and then taking the easy difficulty setting statistics applied to the test. In addition, research has also made performance appraisals from experts and user satisfaction. By results of analysis showed that the performance appraisals from experts on the system as a whole and at a good level. mean was 3.44 and S.D. was 0.55 and user satisfaction per system as a whole and the good level mean was 3.37 and S.D. was 0.42 can conclude that effective systems are in a good level. Work has been completed in accordance with the scope of work. The website used developing this project is PHP, MySQL.5.0.45 for database.

Keywords: secision support system, examination, PHP, information systems

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Authors: Yohanna Panshak

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The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

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Authors: P. Ghann, J. Shiguang, C. Zhou

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Access control is one of the most challenging issues facing information security. Access control is defined as, the ability to permit or deny access to a particular computational resource or digital information by an unauthorized user or subject. The concept of usage control (UCON) has been introduced as a unified approach to capture a number of extensions for access control models and systems. In UCON, an access decision is determined by three factors: Authorizations, obligations and conditions. Attribute mutability and decision continuity are two distinct characteristics introduced by UCON for the first time. An observation of UCON components indicates that, the components are predefined and static. In this paper, we propose a new and flexible model of usage control for the creation and elimination of some of these components; for example new objects, subjects, attributes and integrate these with the original UCON model. We also propose a model for concurrent usage scenarios in UCON.

Keywords: access control, concurrency, digital container, usage control

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Authors: Semih Sözer

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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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Authors: Ipek Kivanc, Demet Ozgur-Unluakin

Abstract:

Over the past years, technological innovations and advancements have played an important role in the industrial world. Due to technological improvements, the degree of complexity of the systems has increased. Hence, all systems are getting more uncertain that emerges from increased complexity, resulting in more cost. It is challenging to cope with this situation. So, implementing efficient planning of maintenance activities in such systems are getting more essential. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful tools for stochastic sequential decision problems under uncertainty. Although maintenance optimization in a dynamic environment can be modeled as such a sequential decision problem, POMDPs are not widely used for tackling maintenance problems. However, they can be well-suited frameworks for obtaining optimal maintenance policies. In the classical representation of the POMDP framework, the system is denoted by a single node which has multiple states. The main drawback of this classical approach is that the state space grows exponentially with the number of state variables. On the other side, factored representation of POMDPs enables to simplify the complexity of the states by taking advantage of the factored structure already available in the nature of the problem. The main idea of factored POMDPs is that they can be compactly modeled through dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which are graphical representations for stochastic processes, by exploiting the structure of this representation. This study aims to demonstrate how maintenance planning of dynamic systems can be modeled with factored POMDPs. An empirical maintenance planning problem of a dynamic system consisting of four partially observable components deteriorating in time is designed. To solve the empirical model, we resort to Symbolic Perseus solver which is one of the state-of-the-art factored POMDP solvers enabling approximate solutions. We generate some more predefined policies based on corrective or proactive maintenance strategies. We execute the policies on the empirical problem for many replications and compare their performances under various scenarios. The results show that the computed policies from the POMDP model are superior to the others. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) under grant no: 117M587.

Keywords: factored representation, maintenance, multi-component system, partially observable Markov decision processes

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Authors: Nataša Šarlija, Sanja Pfeifer

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This study analyzes the innovative orientation of the Croatian entrepreneurs. Innovative orientation is represented by the perceived extent to which an entrepreneur’s product or service or technology is new, and no other businesses offer the same product. The sample is extracted from the GEM Croatia Adult Population Survey dataset for the years 2003-2013. We apply descriptive statistics, t-test, Chi-square test and logistic regression. Findings indicate that innovative orientations vary with personal, firm, meso and macro level variables, and between different stages in entrepreneurship process. Significant predictors are occupation of the entrepreneurs, size of the firm and export aspiration for both early stage and established entrepreneurs. In addition, fear of failure, expecting to start a new business and seeing an entrepreneurial career as a desirable choice are predictors of innovative orientation among early stage entrepreneurs.

Keywords: multilevel determinants of the innovative orientation, Croatian early stage entrepreneurs, established businesses, GEM evidence

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Authors: Mingming Guo, Xiaozan Wang

Abstract:

Introduction: The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between the physical fitness of Chinese college students and their daily running habits (RH). Methods: A total of 718 college students from East China Normal University participated in this study (385 boys and 333 girls). Each participant participated in the Chinese Students’ Physical Fitness Test during the 2018-2019 school year. In addition, each student is also required to use the app to record all their running results during each run during the 2018-2019 school year. Researchers can query and export all running records through the app's management platform. Results: (1) The total number of kilometers run by the students showed a significant negative correlation with their vital capacity (VC), sitting body flexion (SBF), and long jump (LJ) (rᵥ

Keywords: college students, physical fitness, running habits, data mining

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Authors: Lee Waters, Itay Basevitch, Matthew Timmis

Abstract:

Objectives: Eye tracking technology is a valuable method of assessing individuals gaze behaviour, but it does not unveil why they are engaging in certain practices. To address limitations in sport eye tracking research the present paper aims to investigate the gaze behaviours soccer officials engage in during successful and unsuccessful offside decisions, but also why. Methods: 20 male active amateur qualified (Level 4-7) soccer officials (Mage 22.5 SD 4.61 yrs) with an average experience of 41-50 games wore eye tracking technology during an applied attack versus defence drill. While reviewing the eye tracking footage, retrospective semi-structured interviews were conducted (M=20.4 min; SD=6.2; Range 11.7 – 26.8 min) and once transcribed inductive thematic analysis was performed. Findings and Discussion: To improve the understanding of gaze behaviours and how officials make sense of the environment, during the interview’s key constructs of offside, decision making, obstacles and emotions were summarised as the higher order themes while making offside decisions. Gaze anchoring was highlighted to be a successful technique to allow officials to see all relevant information, whereas the type of offside was emphasised to be a key factor in correct interpretation. Furthermore, specific decision-making training was outlined to be inconsistent and not always applicable. Conclusions: Key constructs have been identified and explained, which can be shared with soccer officials through training regimes. Eye tracking technology has also been shown to be a useful and innovative reflective tool to assist in the understanding of individuals gaze behaviours.

Keywords: eye tracking, gaze behvaiour, decision making, reflection

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