Search results for: empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction

Authors: Deenadayalan Govender

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In South Africa, similar to nations globally, the prevailing tangible link between people and the state is public infrastructure. Services delivered through infrastructure to the people and to the state form a critical enabler for social development in communities and economic development in the country. In this regard, infrastructure, being the backbone to a nation’s prosperity, ideally should be effectively maintained for seamless delivery of services. South African infrastructure is in a state of deterioration, which is leading to infrastructure dysfunction and collapse and is negatively affecting development of the economy. This infrastructure deterioration stems from deficiencies in maintenance practices and strategies. From the birth of South African democracy, government has pursued socio-economic transformation and the delivery of critical basic services to decrease the broadening boundaries of disparity. In this regard, the National Infrastructure Plan borne from strategies encompassed in the National Development Plan is given priority by government in delivering strategic catalytic infrastructure projects. The National Infrastructure Plan is perceived to be the key in unlocking opportunities that generate economic growth, kerb joblessness, alleviate poverty, create new entrepreneurial prospects, and mitigate population expansion and rapid urbanisation. Socio-economic transformation benefits from new infrastructure spend is not being realised as initially anticipated. In this context, South Africa is currently in a state of weakening economic growth, with further amassed levels of joblessness, unremitting poverty and inequality. Due to investor reluctance, solicitation of strategic infrastructure funding is progressively becoming a debilitating challenge in all government institutions. Exacerbating these circumstances further, is substandard functionality of existing infrastructure subsequent to inadequate maintenance practices. This in-depth multi-sectoral study into the state of infrastructure is to understand the principal reasons for infrastructure functionality regression better; furthermore, prioritised investigations into progressive maintenance strategies is focused upon. Resultant recommendations reveal enhanced maintenance strategies, with a vision to capitalize on infrastructure design life, and also give special emphasis to socio-economic development imperatives in the long-term. The research method is principally based on descriptive methods (survey, historical, content analysis, qualitative).

Keywords: infrastructure, maintenance, socio-economic, strategies

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Authors: Zan Chen, D. Kwok

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The SkillsFuture Singapore’s mission to develop a responsive and forward-looking Training and Adult Education (TAE) and workforce development system is undergirded by how successful TAE providers are in their business performance and strategies that strengthen their operational efficiency and processes. Therefore, understanding the factors that drive the business performance of TAE providers is critical to the success of SkillsFuture Singapore’s initiatives. This study aims to investigate how business strategy, work autonomy, work intensity and professional development support impact the business performance of private TAE providers. Specifically, the three research questions are: (1) Are there significant relationships between the above-mentioned four factors and TAE providers’ business performance?; (2) Are there significant differences on the four factors between low and high TAE providers’ business performance groups?; and (3) To what extent and in what manner do the four factors predict TAE providers’ business performance? This was part of the first national study on organizations and professionals working in the Training and Adult Education (TAE) sector. Data from 265 private TAE providers where respondents were Chief Executive Officers representatives from the Senior Management were analyzed. The results showed that business strategy (the extent that the organization leads the way in terms of developing new products and services; uses up-to-date learning technologies; customizes its products and services to the client’s needs), work autonomy (the extent that the staff personally have an influence on how hard they work; deciding what tasks they are to do; deciding how they are to do the tasks, and deciding the quality standards to which they work) and professional development support (both monetary and non-monetary support and incentives) had positive and significant relationships with business performance. However, no significant relationship is found between work intensity and business performance. A business strategy, work autonomy and professional development support were significantly higher in the high business performance group compared to the low-performance group among the TAE providers. Results of hierarchical regression analyses controlling for the size of the TAE providers showed significant impacts of business strategy, work autonomy and professional development support on TAE providers’ business performance. Overall, the model accounted for 27% of the variance in TAE providers’ business performance. This study provides policymakers with insights into improving existing policies, designing new initiatives and implementing targeting interventions to support TAE providers. The findings also have implications on how the TAE providers could better formulate their organizational strategies and business models. Finally, limitations of study, along with directions for future research will be discussed in the paper.

Keywords: adult education, business performance, business strategy, training, work autonomy

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Authors: Abdreheman Seid Abdella

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This study examined instructors willingness, self-efficacy beliefs, attitudes and knowledge about provisions of instructional accommodations for students with disabilities in universities. Major concepts used in this study operationally defined and some models of disability were reviewed. Questionnaires were distributed to a total of 181 instructors from four universities and quantitative data was generated. Then to analyze the data, appropriate methods of data analysis were employed. The result indicated that on average instructors had positive willingness, strong self-efficacy beliefs and positive attitudes towards providing instructional accommodations. In addition, the result showed that the majority of participants had moderate level of knowledge about provision of instructional accommodations. Concerning the relationship between instructors background variables and dependent variables, the result revealed that location of university and awareness raising training about Inclusive Education showed statistically significant relationship with all dependent variables (willingness, self-efficacy beliefs, attitudes and knowledge). On the other hand, gender and college/faculty did not show a statistically significant relationship. In addition, it was found that among the inter-correlation of dependent variables, the correlation between attitudes and willingness to provide accommodations was the strongest. Furthermore, using multiple linear regression analysis, this study also indicated that predictor variables like self-efficacy beliefs, attitudes, knowledge and teaching methodology training made statistically significant contribution to predicting the criterion willingness. Predictor variables like willingness and attitudes made statistically significant contribution to predicting self-efficacy beliefs. Predictor variables like willingness, Special Needs Education course and self-efficacy beliefs made statistically significant contribution to predict attitudes. Predictor variables like Special Needs Education courses, the location of university and willingness made statistically significant contribution to predicting knowledge. Finally, using exploratory factor analysis, this study showed that there were four components or factors each that represent the underlying constructs of willingness and self-efficacy beliefs to provide instructional accommodations items, five components for attitudes towards providing accommodations items and three components represent the underlying constructs for knowledge about provisions of instructional accommodations items. Based on the findings, recommendations were made for improving the situation of instructional accommodations in Ethiopian universities.

Keywords: willingness, self-efficacy belief, attitude, knowledge

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Authors: Yves Alain Ach, Sandra Rmadi Said

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An extensive review of literature in relation to brands has shown that little research has focused on the nature and determinants of the information disclosed by companies with respect to the brands they own and use. The objective of this paper is to address this issue. More specifically, the aim is to characterize the nature of the information disclosed by companies in terms of estimating the value of brands and to identify the determinants of that information according to the company’s characteristics most frequently tested by previous studies on the disclosure of information on intangible capital, by studying the practices of a sample of 37 French companies. Our findings suggest that companies prefer to communicate accounting, economic and strategic information in relation to their brands instead of providing financial information. The analysis of the determinants of the information disclosed on brands leads to the conclusion that the groups which operate internationally and have chosen a category 1 auditing firm to communicate more information to investors in their annual report. Our study points out that the sector is not an explanatory variable for voluntary brand disclosure, unlike previous studies on intangible capital. Our study is distinguished by the study of an element that has been little studied in the financial literature, namely the determinants of brand-related information. With regard to the effect of size on brand-related information disclosure, our research does not confirm this link. Many authors point out that large companies tend to publish more voluntary information in order to respond to stakeholder pressure. Our study also establishes that the relationship between brand information supply and performance is insignificant. This relationship is already controversial by previous research, and it shows that higher profitability motivates managers to provide more information, as this strengthens investor confidence and may increase managers' compensation. Our main contribution focuses on the nature of the inherent characteristics of the companies that disclose the most information about brands. Our results show the absence of a link between size and industry on the one hand and the supply of brand information on the other, contrary to previous research. Our analysis highlights three types of information disclosed about brands: accounting, economics and strategy. We, therefore, question the reasons that may lead companies to voluntarily communicate mainly accounting, economic and strategic information in relation to our study from one year to the next and not to communicate detailed information that would allow them to reconstitute the financial value of their brands. Our results can be useful for companies and investors. Our results highlight, to our surprise, the lack of financial information that would allow investors to understand a better valuation of brands. We believe that additional information is needed to improve the quality of accounting and financial information related to brands. The additional information provided in the special report that we recommend could be called a "report on intangible assets”.

Keywords: brand related information, brand value, information disclosure, determinants

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Authors: Inga Žukovaitė

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This work aims to present postdoc research on remote criminal proceedings in court in order to streamline the proceedings and, at the same time, ensure the effective participation of the parties in criminal proceedings and the court's obligation to administer substantive and procedural justice. This study tests the hypothesis that remote criminal proceedings do not in themselves violate the fundamental principles of criminal procedure; however, their implementation must ensure the right of the parties to effective legal remedies and a fair trial and, only then, must address the issues of procedural economy, speed and flexibility/functionality of the application of technologies. In order to ensure that changes in the regulation of criminal proceedings are in line with fair trial standards, this research will provide answers to the questions of what conditions -first of all, legal and only then organisational- are required for remote criminal proceedings to ensure respect for the parties and enable their effective participation in public proceedings, to create conditions for quality legal defence and its accessibility, to give a correct impression to the party that they are heard and that the court is impartial and fair. It also seeks to present the results of empirical research in the courts of Lithuania that was made by using the interview method. The research will serve as a basis for developing a theoretical model for remote criminal proceedings in the EU to ensure a balance between the intention to have innovative, cost-effective, and flexible criminal proceedings and the positive obligation of the State to ensure the rights of participants in proceedings to just and fair criminal proceedings. Moreover, developments in criminal proceedings also keep changing the image of the court itself; therefore, in the paper will create preconditions for future research on the impact of remote criminal proceedings on the trust in courts. The study aims at laying down the fundamentals for theoretical models of a remote hearing in criminal proceedings and at making recommendations for the safeguarding of human rights, in particular the rights of the accused, in such proceedings. The following criteria are relevant for the remote form of criminal proceedings: the purpose of judicial instance, the legal position of participants in proceedings, their vulnerability, and the nature of required legal protection. The content of the study consists of: 1. Identification of the factual and legal prerequisites for a decision to organise the entire criminal proceedings by remote means or to carry out one or several procedural actions by remote means 2. After analysing the legal regulation and practice concerning the application of the elements of remote criminal proceedings, distinguish the main legal safeguards for protection of the rights of the accused to ensure: (a) the right of effective participation in a court hearing; (b) the right of confidential consultation with the defence counsel; (c) the right of participation in the examination of evidence, in particular material evidence, as well as the right to question witnesses; and (d) the right to a public trial.

Keywords: remote criminal proceedings, fair trial, right to defence, technology progress

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Authors: Cathal Merz, Gareth O’Donnell

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Coil reinforced thin-walled (CRTW) tubes are used in medicine to treat problems affecting blood vessels within the body through minimally invasive procedures. The CRTW tube considered in this research makes up part of such a device and is inserted into the patient via their femoral or brachial arteries and manually navigated to the site in need of treatment. This procedure replaces the requirement to perform open surgery but is limited by reduction of blood vessel lumen diameter and increase in tortuosity of blood vessels deep in the brain. In order to maximize the capability of these procedures, CRTW tube devices are being manufactured with decreasing wall thicknesses in order to deliver treatment deeper into the body and to allow passage of other devices through its inner diameter. This introduces significant stresses to the device materials which have resulted in an observed increase in the breaking of the proximal segment of the device into two separate pieces after it has failed by buckling. As there is currently no international standard for measuring the mechanical properties of these CRTW tube devices, it is difficult to accurately analyze this problem. The aim of the current work is to address this discrepancy in the biomedical device industry by developing a measurement system that can be used to quantify the effect of process and design changes on CRTW tube performance, aiding in the development of better performing, next generation devices. Using materials testing frames, micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) imaging, experiment planning, analysis of variance (ANOVA), T-tests and regression analysis, test methods have been developed for assessing the impact of process and design changes on the device. The major findings of this study have been an insight into the suitability of buckle and three-point bend tests for the measurement of the effect of varying processing factors on the device’s performance, and guidelines for interpreting the output data from the test methods. The findings of this study are of significant interest with respect to verifying and validating key process and design changes associated with the device structure and material condition. Test method integrity evaluation is explored throughout.

Keywords: neurovascular catheter, coil reinforced tube, buckling, three-point bend, tensile

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Authors: Klea Ramaj

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Objectives: There have recently been increasing calls to better understand the intergenerational transmission of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). In particular, little is known about the links between maternal (ACEs), maternal stress, maternal depression, and child abuse against toddlers in countries in South-East Europe. This paper, therefore, aims to present new descriptive data on the epidemiology of maternal mental well-being and maternal ACEs in the capital of Albania, Tirana. It also aims to advance our understanding of the overlap between maternal stress, maternal depression, maternal exposure to ACEs, and child abuse toward two-to-three-year-old. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study conducted with a representative sample of 328 mothers of two-to-three-year-olds, recruited through public nurseries located in 8 diverse socio-economic and geographical areas in Tirana, Albania. Maternal stress was measured through the perceived stress scale (α = 0.78); maternal depression was measured via the patient health questionnaire (α = 0.77); maternal exposure to ACEs was captured via the ACEs international questionnaire (α = 0.77); and child maltreatment was captured via ISPCAN ICAST-P (α = 0.66). The main outcome examined here will be child maltreatment. The paper will first present estimates of maternal stress, depression, and child maltreatment by demographic groups. It will then use multiple regression to examine associations between child maltreatment and risk factors in the domains of maternal stress, maternal depression, and maternal ACEs. Results: Mothers' mean age was 32.3 (SD = 4.24), 87.5% were married, 51% had one child, and 83.5% had completed higher education. Analyses show high levels of stress and exposure to childhood adversity among mothers in Tirana. 97.5% of mothers perceived stress during the last month, and 89% had experienced at least one childhood adversity as measured by the ACE questionnaire, with 20.2% having experienced 4+ ACEs. Analyses show significant positive associations between maternal ACEs and maternal stress r(325) = 0.25, p = 0.00. Mothers with a high number of ACEs were more likely to abuse their children r(327) = .43, p = 0.00. 32% of mothers have used physical discipline with their 2–3-year-old, 84% have used psychological discipline, and 35% have neglected their toddler at least once or twice. The mothers’ depression levels were also positively and significantly associated with child maltreatment r(327) = .34, p = 0.00. Conclusions: This study provides cross-sectional data on the link between maternal exposure to early adversity, maternal mental well-being, and child maltreatment within the context of Tirana, Albania. The results highlight the importance of establishing policies that encourage maternal support, positive parenting, and family well-being in order to help break the cycle of transgenerational violence.

Keywords: child maltreatment, maternal mental well-being, intergenerational abuse, Tirana, Albania

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Authors: Liubov Lutsyshyn, Yaroslava Zhukova

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Over the past twenty years, there has been a drastic change in the mode of nutrition in many countries which has been reflected in the development of new products, production techniques, and has also led to the expansion of sales markets for food products. Studies have shown that solution of the food safety problems is almost impossible without the active and systematic activity of organizations directly involved in the production, storage and sale of food products, as well as without management of end-to-end traceability and exchange of information. The aim of this research is development of the integrated system of the quality management and safety assurance based on the principles of HACCP, traceability and system approach with creation of an algorithm for the identification and monitoring of parameters of technological process of manufacture of cooked sausage products. Methodology of implementation of the integrated system based on the principles of HACCP, traceability and system approach during the manufacturing of cooked sausage products for effective provision for the defined properties of the finished product has been developed. As a result of the research evaluation technique and criteria of performance of the implementation and operation of the system of the quality management and safety assurance based on the principles of HACCP have been developed and substantiated. In the paper regularities of influence of the application of HACCP principles, traceability and system approach on parameters of quality and safety of the finished product have been revealed. In the study regularities in identification of critical control points have been determined. The algorithm of functioning of the integrated system of the quality management and safety assurance has also been described and key requirements for the development of software allowing the prediction of properties of finished product, as well as the timely correction of the technological process and traceability of manufacturing flows have been defined. Based on the obtained results typical scheme of the integrated system of the quality management and safety assurance based on HACCP principles with the elements of end-to-end traceability and system approach for manufacture of cooked sausage products has been developed. As a result of the studies quantitative criteria for evaluation of performance of the system of the quality management and safety assurance have been developed. A set of guidance documents for the implementation and evaluation of the integrated system based on the HACCP principles in meat processing plants have also been developed. On the basis of the research the effectiveness of application of continuous monitoring of the manufacturing process during the control on the identified critical control points have been revealed. The optimal number of critical control points in relation to the manufacture of cooked sausage products has been substantiated. The main results of the research have been appraised during 2013-2014 under the conditions of seven enterprises of the meat processing industry and have been implemented at JSC «Kyiv meat processing plant».

Keywords: cooked sausage products, HACCP, quality management, safety assurance

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Authors: Siqing Guan, Fumiyo Oshima, Eiji Shimizu, Nozomi Tomita, Toru Takahashi, Hiroaki Kumano

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Risk factors for social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions involve executive attention, emotion regulation, and thought regulation as processes of cognitive dysregulation. Social camouflaging behaviors as strategies used to mask and/or compensate for autism characteristics during social interactions in autism spectrum conditions have also been emphasized. However, the role of cognitive dysregulation and social camouflaging related to social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions has not been clarified. Whether these factors are specific to social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions or common to social anxiety independent of autism spectrum conditions needs to be clarified. Here, we explored risk factors specific to social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions and general risk factors for social anxiety independent of autism spectrum conditions. From the Japanese participants in early adulthood (age=18~39) of the online survey in Japan, those who exceeded the Japanese version Autism-Spectrum Quotient cutoff (33 points or more )were divided into the autism spectrum conditions group (ASC; N=255, mean age=32.08, SD age=5.16)and those who did not exceed the cutoff were divided into the non-autism spectrum conditions group (Non-ASC; N=255, mean age=31.70, SD age=5.09). Using the Japanese versions of the Social Phobia Scale, the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale, and the Short Fear of Negative Evaluation Scale, a composite score for social anxiety was calculated using a method of principal. We also measured emotional control difficulties using the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale, executive attention using the Effortful Control Scale for Adults, rumination using the Rumination-Reflection Questionnaire, and worry using the Penn State Worry Questionnaire. This study was passed through the review of the Ethics Committee. No conflicts of interest. Multiple regression analysis with forced entry method was used to predict social anxiety in the ASC and non-ASC groups separately, based on executive attention, emotion dysregulation, worry, rumination, and social camouflage. In the ASC group, emotion dysregulation (β=.277, p<.001), worry (β=.162, p<.05), assimilation (β=.308, p<.001) and masking (β=.275, p<.001) were significant predictors of social anxiety (F (7,247) = 45.791, p <.001, R2=.565). In the non-ASC groups,emotion dysregulation (β=.171, p<.05), worry (β=.344，p <.001), assimilation (β=.366,p <.001) and executive attention (β=-.132,p <.05) were significant predictors of social anxiety (F (7,207) =47.333, p <.001, R2=.615).The findings suggest that masking was shown to be a risk factor for social anxiety specific to autism spectrum conditions, while emotion dysregulation, worry, and assimilation were shown to be common risk factors for social anxiety, regardless of autism spectrum conditions. In addition, executive attention is a risk factor for social anxiety without autism spectrum conditions.

Keywords: autism spectrum, cognitive control, social anxiety, social camouflaging

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Authors: Santiago Quesada-García, María Lozano-Gómez, Pablo Valero-Flores

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The recent digital revolution, together with modern technologies, is changing the environment and the way people interact with inhabited space. However, in society, the elderly are a very broad and varied group that presents serious difficulties in understanding these modern technologies. Outpatients with cognitive disabilities, such as those suffering from Alzheimer's disease (AD), are distinguished within this cluster. This population group is in constant growth, and they have specific requirements for their inhabited space. According to architecture, which is one of the health humanities, environments are designed to promote well-being and improve the quality of life for all. Buildings, as well as the tools and technologies integrated into them, must be accessible, inclusive, and foster health. In this new digital paradigm, artificial intelligence (AI) appears as an innovative resource to help this population group improve their autonomy and quality of life. Some experiences and solutions, such as those that interact with users through chatbots and voicebots, show the potential of AI in its practical application. In the design of healthy spaces, the integration of AI in architecture will allow the living environment to become a kind of 'exo-brain' that can make up for certain cognitive deficiencies in this population. The objective of this paper is to address, from the discipline of neuroarchitecture, how modern technologies can be integrated into everyday environments and be an accessible resource for people with cognitive disabilities. For this, the methodology has a mixed structure. On the one hand, from an empirical point of view, the research carries out a review of the existing literature about the applications of AI to build space, following the critical review foundations. As a unconventional architectural research, an experimental analysis is proposed based on people with AD as a resource of data to study how the environment in which they live influences their regular activities. The results presented in this communication are part of the progress achieved in the competitive R&D&I project ALZARQ (PID2020-115790RB-I00). These outcomes are aimed at the specific needs of people with cognitive disabilities, especially those with AD, since, due to the comfort and wellness that the solutions entail, they can also be extrapolated to the whole society. As a provisional conclusion, it can be stated that, in the immediate future, AI will be an essential element in the design and construction of healthy new environments. The discipline of architecture has the compositional resources to, through this emerging technology, build an 'exo-brain' capable of becoming a personal assistant for the inhabitants, with whom to interact proactively and contribute to their general well-being. The main objective of this work is to show how this is possible.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, artificial intelligence, healthy architecture, neuroarchitecture, architectural design

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Authors: Meshal M. Abdullah, Rusty A. Feagin, Layla Musawi

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When humans mismanage arid landscapes, soil erosion can become a primary mechanism that leads to desertification. This study focuses on applying soil erosion models to a disturbed landscape in Umm Nigga, Kuwait, and identifying its predicted change under restoration plans, The northern portion of Umm Nigga, containing both coastal and desert ecosystems, falls within the boundaries of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) adjacent to Iraq, and has been fenced off to restrict public access since 1994. The central objective of this project was to utilize GIS and remote sensing to compare the MPSIAC (Modified Pacific South West Inter Agency Committee), EMP (Erosion Potential Method), and USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) soil erosion models and determine their applicability for arid regions such as Kuwait. Spatial analysis was used to develop the necessary datasets for factors such as soil characteristics, vegetation cover, runoff, climate, and topography. Results showed that the MPSIAC and EMP models produced a similar spatial distribution of erosion, though the MPSIAC had more variability. For the MPSIAC model, approximately 45% of the land surface ranged from moderate to high soil loss, while 35% ranged from moderate to high for the EMP model. The USLE model had contrasting results and a different spatial distribution of the soil loss, with 25% of area ranging from moderate to high erosion, and 75% ranging from low to very low. We concluded that MPSIAC and EMP were the most suitable models for arid regions in general, with the MPSIAC model best. We then applied the MPSIAC model to identify the amount of soil loss between coastal and desert areas, and fenced and unfenced sites. In the desert area, soil loss was different between fenced and unfenced sites. In these desert fenced sites, 88% of the surface was covered with vegetation and soil loss was very low, while at the desert unfenced sites it was 3% and correspondingly higher. In the coastal areas, the amount of soil loss was nearly similar between fenced and unfenced sites. These results implied that vegetation cover played an important role in reducing soil erosion, and that fencing is much more important in the desert ecosystems to protect against overgrazing. When applying the MPSIAC model predictively, we found that vegetation cover could be increased from 3% to 37% in unfenced areas, and soil erosion could then decrease by 39%. We conclude that the MPSIAC model is best to predict soil erosion for arid regions such as Kuwait.

Keywords: soil erosion, GIS, modified pacific South west inter agency committee model (MPSIAC), erosion potential method (EMP), Universal soil loss equation (USLE)

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Authors: Lorena Mihelac, Janez Povh

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In 2017, we conducted a research study using data consisting of 160 musical excerpts from different musical styles, to analyze the impact of entropy of the harmony on the acceptability of music. In measuring the entropy of harmony, we were interested in unigrams (individual chords in the harmonic progression) and bigrams (the connection of two adjacent chords). In this study, it has been found that 53 musical excerpts out from 160 were evaluated by participants as very complex, although the entropy of the harmonic progression (unigrams and bigrams) was calculated as low. We have explained this by particularities of chord progression, which impact the listener's feeling of complexity and acceptability. We have evaluated the same data twice with new participants in 2018 and with the same participants for the third time in 2019. These three evaluations have shown that the same 53 musical excerpts, found to be difficult and complex in the study conducted in 2017, are exhibiting a high feeling of complexity again. It was proposed that the content of these musical excerpts, defined as “irregular,” is not meeting the listener's expectancy and the basic perceptual principles, creating a higher feeling of difficulty and complexity. As the “irregularities” in these 53 musical excerpts seem to be perceived by the participants without being aware of it, affecting the pleasantness and the feeling of complexity, they have been defined as “subliminal irregularities” and the 53 musical excerpts as “irregular.” In our recent study (2019) of the same data (used in previous research works), we have proposed a new measure of the complexity of harmony, “regularity,” based on the irregularities in the harmonic progression and other plausible particularities in the musical structure found in previous studies. We have in this study also proposed a list of 10 different particularities for which we were assuming that they are impacting the participant’s perception of complexity in harmony. These ten particularities have been tested in this paper, by extending the analysis in our 53 irregular musical excerpts from harmony to melody. In the examining of melody, we have used the computational model “Information Dynamics of Music” (IDyOM) and two information-theoretic measures: entropy - the uncertainty of the prediction before the next event is heard, and information content - the unexpectedness of an event in a sequence. In order to describe the features of melody in these musical examples, we have used four different viewpoints: pitch, interval, duration, scale degree. The results have shown that the texture of melody (e.g., multiple voices, homorhythmic structure) and structure of melody (e.g., huge interval leaps, syncopated rhythm, implied harmony in compound melodies) in these musical excerpts are impacting the participant’s perception of complexity. High information content values were found in compound melodies in which implied harmonies seem to have suggested additional harmonies, affecting the participant’s perception of the chord progression in harmony by creating a sense of an ambiguous musical structure.

Keywords: entropy and information content, harmony, subliminal (ir)regularity, IDyOM

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Authors: Asrat Agalu Abejew

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Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a silent tsunami and one of the top global threats to health care and public health. It is one of the common agendas globally and in Ethiopia. Emerging AMR will be a double burden to Ethiopia, which is facing a series of problems from infectious disease morbidity and mortality. In Ethiopia, although there are attempts to document AMR in healthcare institutions, comprehensive and all-inclusive analysis is still lacking. Thus, this study is aimed to determine trends in AMR from 2016-2021. Methods: A retrospective analysis of secondary data recorded in the Amhara Public Health Institute (APHI) from 2016 to 2021 G.C was conducted. Blood, Urine, Stool, Swabs, Discharge, body effusions, and other Microbiological specimens were collected from each study participants, and Bacteria identification and Resistance tests were done using the standard microbiologic procedure. Data was extracted from excel in August 2022, Trends in AMR were analyzed, and the results were described. In addition, the chi-square (X2) test and binary logistic regression were used, and a P. value < 0.05 was used to determine a significant association. Results: During 6 years period, there were 25143 culture and susceptibility tests. Overall, 265 (46.2%) bacteria were resistant to 2-4 antibiotics, 253 (44.2%) to 5-7 antibiotics, and 56 (9.7%) to >=8 antibiotics. The gram-negative bacteria were 166 (43.9%), 155 (41.5%), and 55 (14.6%) resistant to 2-4, 5-7, and ≥8 antibiotics, respectively, whereas 99(50.8%), 96(49.2% and 1 (0.5%) of gram-positive bacteria were resistant to 2-4, 5-7 and ≥8 antibiotics respectively. K. pneumonia 3783 (15.67%) and E. coli 3199 (13.25%) were the most commonly isolated bacteria, and the overall prevalence of AMR was 2605 (59.9%), where K. pneumonia 743 (80.24%), E. cloacae 196 (74.81%), A. baumannii 213 (66.56%) being the most common resistant bacteria for antibiotics tested. Except for a slight decline during 2020 (6469 (25.4%)), the overall trend of AMR is rising from year to year, with a peak in 2019 (8480 (33.7%)) and in 2021 (7508 (29.9%). If left un-intervened, the trend in AMR will increase by 78% of variation from the study period, as explained by the differences in years (R2=0.7799). Ampicillin, Augmentin, ciprofloxacin, cotrimoxazole, tetracycline, and Tobramycin were almost resistant to common bacteria they were tested. Conclusion: AMR is linearly increasing during the last 6 years. If left as it is without appropriate intervention after 15 years (2030 E.C), AMR will increase by 338.7%. A growing number of multi-drug resistant bacteria is an alarm to awake policymakers and those who do have the concern to intervene before it is too late. This calls for a periodic, integrated, and continuous system to determine the prevalence of AMR in commonly used antibiotics.

Keywords: AMR, trend, pattern, MDR

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Authors: Martins Onyekwelu Onuorah, Jnr Dahiru Usman

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Introduction: In the realm of public health, the threat posed by Monkeypox continues to elicit concern, prompting rigorous studies to understand its dynamics and devise effective containment strategies. Particularly significant is its recurrence in variable populations, such as the observed outbreak in Nigeria in 2022. In light of this, our study undertakes a meticulous analysis, employing a data-driven approach to explore, validate, and propose optimized intervention strategies tailored to the distinct dynamics of Monkeypox within varying demographic structures. Utilizing a deterministic mathematical model, we delved into the intricate dynamics of Monkeypox, with a particular focus on a variable population context. Our qualitative analysis provided insights into the disease-free equilibrium, revealing its stability when R0 is less than one and discounting the possibility of backward bifurcation, as substantiated by the presence of a single stable endemic equilibrium. The model was rigorously validated using real-time data from the Nigerian 2022 recorded cases for Epi weeks 1 – 52. Transitioning from qualitative to quantitative, we augmented our deterministic model with optimal control, introducing three time-dependent interventions to scrutinize their efficacy and influence on the epidemic's trajectory. Numerical simulations unveiled a pronounced impact of the interventions, offering a data-supported blueprint for informed decision-making in containing the disease. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis employing the Infection Averted Ratio (IAR), Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER), and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) facilitated a balanced evaluation of the interventions’ economic and health impacts. In essence, our study epitomizes a holistic approach to understanding and mitigating Monkeypox, intertwining rigorous mathematical modeling, empirical validation, and economic evaluation. The insights derived not only bolster our comprehension of Monkeypox's intricate dynamics but also unveil optimized, cost-effective interventions. This integration of methodologies and findings underscores a pivotal stride towards aligning public health imperatives with economic sustainability, marking a significant contribution to global efforts in combating infectious diseases.

Keywords: monkeypox, equilibrium states, stability, bifurcation, optimal control, cost-effectiveness

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Authors: Zeynep Altinkaya, Ugur Dal, Figen Dag, Dilan D. Koyuncu, Merve Turkegun

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Obesity is defined as abnormal fat-tissue accumulation as a result of imbalance between energy intake and expenditure. Since 50-70% daily energy expenditure of sedantary individuals is consumed as resting energy expenditure (REE), it takes an important place in the evaluation of new methods for obesity treatment. Also, it is known that walking is a prevalent activity in the prevention of obesity. The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the resting and walking energy expenditures of individuals with different body mass index (BMI). In this research, 4 groups are formed as underweight (BMI < 18,5 kg/m2), normal (BMI=18,5-24,9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI=25-29,9 kg/m2), and obese (BMI ≥ 30) according to BMI of individuals. 64 healthy young adults (8 man and 8 woman per group, age 18-30 years) with no known gait disabilities were recruited in this study. The body compositions of all participants were measured via bioelectric empedance analysis method. The energy expenditure of individuals was measured with indirect calorimeter method as inspired and expired gas samples are collected breath-by-breath through a special facemask. The preferred walking speed (PWS) of each subject was determined by using infrared sensors placed in 2nd and 12th meters of 14 m walkway. The REE was measured for 15 min while subjects were lying, and walking energy expenditure was measured during subjects walk in their PWS on treadmill. The gross REE was significantly higher in obese subjects compared to underweight and normal subjects (p < 0,0001). When REE was normalized to body weight, it was higher in underweight and normal groups than overweight and obese groups (p < 0,0001). However, when REE was normalized to fat-free mass, it did not differ significantly between groups. The gross walking energy expenditure in PWS was higher in obese and overweight groups than underweight and normal groups (p < 0,0001). The regression coefficient between gross walking energy expenditure and body weight was significiant among normal and obese groups (p < 0.05). It accounted for 70,5% of gross walking energy expenditure in normal group, and 57,9% of gross walking energy expenditure in obese group. It is known that obese individuals have more metabolically inactive fat-tissue compared to other groups. While excess fat-tissue increases total body weight, it does not contribute much to REE. Therefore, REE results normalized to body weight could lead to misleading results. In order to eliminate fat-mass effect on REE of obese individuals, REE normalized to fat-free mass should be used to acquire more accurate results. On the other hand, the fat-mass increasement raises energy requirement while walking to retain the body balance. Thus, gross walking energy expenditure should be taken into consideration for the evaluating energy expenditure of walking.

Keywords: body composition, obesity, resting energy expenditure, walking energy expenditure

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Authors: Samul Sahile Kebede

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Back ground: -Immune hemolytic anemia commonly affects human immune deficiency, infected individuals. Among anemic HIV patients in Africa, the burden of IHA due to autoantibody was ranged from 2.34 to 3.06 due to the drug was 43.4%. IHA due to autoimmune is potentially a fatal complication of HIV, which accompanies the greatest percent from acquired hemolytic anemia. Objective: -The main aim of this study was to determine the magnitude and associated factors of immune hemolytic anemia among human immuno deficiency virus infected adults at the university of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital north west Ethiopia from March to April 2021. Methods: - An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 358 human immunodeficiency virus-infected adults selected by systematic random sampling at the University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital from March to April 2021. Data for socio-demography, dietary and clinical data were collected by structured pretested questionnaire. Five ml of venous blood was drawn from each participant and analyzed by Unicel DHX 800 hematology analyzer, blood film examination, and antihuman globulin test were performed to the diagnosis of immune hemolytic anemia. Data was entered into Epidata version 4.6 and analyzed by STATA version 14. Descriptive statistics were computed and firth penalized logistic regression was used to identify predictors. P value less than 0.005 interpreted as significant. Result; - The overall prevalence of immune hemolytic anemia was 2.8 % (10 of 358 participants). Of these, 5 were males, and 7 were in the 31 to 50 year age group. Among individuals with immune hemolytic anemia, 40 % mild and 60 % moderate anemia. The factors that showed association were family history of anemia (AOR 8.30 at 95% CI 1.56, 44.12), not eating meat (AOR 7.39 at 95% CI 1.25, 45.0), and high viral load 6.94 at 95% CI (1.13, 42.6). Conclusion and recommendation; Immune hemolytic anemia is less frequent condition in human immunodeficiency virus infected adults, and moderate anemia was common in this population. The prevalence was increased with a high viral load, a family history of anemia, and not eating meat. In these patients, early detection and treatment of immune hemolytic anemia is necessary.

Keywords: anemia, hemolytic, immune, auto immune, HIV/AIDS

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Authors: Elcin Timur Cakmak, Ayse Oguzlar

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This study presents the results of the tweets sent by Twitter users on social media about the Russia-Ukraine war by bigram and trigram methods. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a military operation against Ukraine, and all eyes were turned to this war. Many people living in Russia and Ukraine reacted to this war and protested and also expressed their deep concern about this war as they felt the safety of their families and their futures were at stake. Most people, especially those living in Russia and Ukraine, express their views on the war in different ways. The most popular way to do this is through social media. Many people prefer to convey their feelings using Twitter, one of the most frequently used social media tools. Since the beginning of the war, it is seen that there have been thousands of tweets about the war from many countries of the world on Twitter. These tweets accumulated in data sources are extracted using various codes for analysis through Twitter API and analysed by Python programming language. The aim of the study is to find the word sequences in these tweets by the n-gram method, which is known for its widespread use in computational linguistics and natural language processing. The tweet language used in the study is English. The data set consists of the data obtained from Twitter between February 24, 2022, and April 24, 2022. The tweets obtained from Twitter using the #ukraine, #russia, #war, #putin, #zelensky hashtags together were captured as raw data, and the remaining tweets were included in the analysis stage after they were cleaned through the preprocessing stage. In the data analysis part, the sentiments are found to present what people send as a message about the war on Twitter. Regarding this, negative messages make up the majority of all the tweets as a ratio of %63,6. Furthermore, the most frequently used bigram and trigram word groups are found. Regarding the results, the most frequently used word groups are “he, is”, “I, do”, “I, am” for bigrams. Also, the most frequently used word groups are “I, do, not”, “I, am, not”, “I, can, not” for trigrams. In the machine learning phase, the accuracy of classifications is measured by Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Naïve Bayes (NB) algorithms. The algorithms are used separately for bigrams and trigrams. We gained the highest accuracy and F-measure values by the NB algorithm and the highest precision and recall values by the CART algorithm for bigrams. On the other hand, the highest values for accuracy, precision, and F-measure values are achieved by the CART algorithm, and the highest value for the recall is gained by NB for trigrams.

Keywords: classification algorithms, machine learning, sentiment analysis, Twitter

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Authors: Amanda Aliende da Matta, Maria del Pilar Fogueiras Bertomeu, Valeria de Ormaechea Otalora, Maria Paz Sandin Esteban, Miriam Comet Donoso

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This communication presents the preliminary emerging themes in a research on political participation of young women. The study follows a qualitative methodology; in particular, the applied hermeneutic phenomenological method, and the general objective of the research is to give an account of the experience of political participation as young women. The study participants are women aged 18 to 35 who have experience in political participation. The techniques of data collection are the descriptive story and the phenomenological interview. With respect to the first methodological steps, these have been: 1) collect and select stories of lived experience in political participation, 2) select descriptions of lived experience (DLEs) in political participation of the chosen stories, 3) to prepare phenomenological interviews from the selected DLEs, 4) to conduct phenomenological thematic analysis (PTA) of the DLEs. We have so far initiated the PTA on 5 vignettes. Hermeneutic phenomenology as a research approach is based on phenomenological philosophy and applied hermeneutics. Phenomenology is a descriptive philosophy of pure experience and essences, through which we seek to capture an experience at its origins without categorizing, interpreting or theorizing it. Hermeneutics, on the other hand, may be defined as a philosophical current that can be applied to data analysis. Max Van Manen wrote that hermeneutic phenomenology is a method of abstemious reflection on the basic structures of the lived experience of human existence. In hermeneutic phenomenology we focus, then, on the way we experience “things” in the first person, seeking to capture the world exactly as we experience it, not as we categorize or conceptualize it. In this study, the empirical methods used were: Lived experience description (written) and conversational interview. For these short stories, participants were asked: “What was your lived experience of participation in politics as a young woman? Can you tell me any stories or anecdotes that you think exemplify or typify your experience?”. The questions were accompanied by a list of guidelines for writing descriptive vignettes. And the analytical method was PTA. Among the provisional results, we found preliminary emerging themes, which could in the advance of the investigation result in meaning structures of political participation of young women. They are the following: - Complicity may be inherent/essential in political participation as a young woman; - Feelings may be essential/inherent in political participation as a young woman; - Hope may be essential in authentic political participation as a young woman; - Frustration may be essential in authentic political participation as a young woman; - Satisfaction may be essential in authentic political participation as a young woman; - There may be tension between individual/collective inherent/essential in political participation as a young woman; - Political participation as a young woman may include moments of public demonstration.

Keywords: applied hermeneutic phenomenology, hermeneutics, phenomenology, political participation

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Authors: Miguel Contreras, David Long, Will Bachman

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Background: Microscopy plays a central role in cell and developmental biology. In particular, fluorescence microscopy can be used to visualize specific cellular components and subsequently quantify their morphology through development of virtual-cell models for study of effects of mechanical forces on cells. However, there are challenges with these imaging experiments, which can make it difficult to quantify cell morphology: inconsistent results, time-consuming and potentially costly protocols, and limitation on number of labels due to spectral overlap. To address these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop an automatic computational machine learning pipeline to predict cellular components morphology for virtual-cell generation based on fluorescence cell membrane confocal z-stacks. Methods: Registered confocal z-stacks of nuclei and cell membrane of endothelial cells, consisting of 20 images each, were obtained from fluorescence confocal microscopy and normalized through software pipeline for each image to have a mean pixel intensity value of 0.5. An open source machine learning algorithm, originally developed to predict fluorescence labels on unlabeled transmitted light microscopy cell images, was trained using this set of normalized z-stacks on a single CPU machine. Through transfer learning, the algorithm used knowledge acquired from its previous training sessions to learn the new task. Once trained, the algorithm was used to predict morphology of nuclei using normalized cell membrane fluorescence images as input. Predictions were compared to the ground truth fluorescence nuclei images. Results: After one week of training, using one cell membrane z-stack (20 images) and corresponding nuclei label, results showed qualitatively good predictions on training set. The algorithm was able to accurately predict nuclei locations as well as shape when fed only fluorescence membrane images. Similar training sessions with improved membrane image quality, including clear lining and shape of the membrane, clearly showing the boundaries of each cell, proportionally improved nuclei predictions, reducing errors relative to ground truth. Discussion: These results show the potential of pre-trained machine learning algorithms to predict cell morphology using relatively small amounts of data and training time, eliminating the need of using multiple labels in immunofluorescence experiments. With further training, the algorithm is expected to predict different labels (e.g., focal-adhesion sites, cytoskeleton), which can be added to the automatic machine learning pipeline for direct input into Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for generation of virtual-cell mechanical models.

Keywords: cell morphology prediction, computational machine learning, fluorescence microscopy, virtual-cell models

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Authors: Krisztina Bohacs, Klaudia Markus

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To author’s best knowledge we are in absence of studies on cognitive program evaluation and we are certainly short of programs that prove to have high effect sizes with strong retention results. The purpose of our study was to investigate the effectiveness of a comprehensive cognitive training program, namely BrainRx. This cognitive rehabilitation program target and remediate seven core cognitive skills and related systems of sub-skills through repeated engagement in game-like mental procedures delivered one-on-one by a clinician, supplemented by digital training. A larger sample of children with learning disability were given pretest and post-test cognitive assessments. The experimental group completed a twenty-week cognitive training program in a BrainRx center. A matched control group received another twenty-week intervention with Feuerstein’s Instrumental Enrichment programs. A second matched control group did not receive training. As for pre- and post-test, we used a general intelligence test to assess IQ and a computer-based test battery for assessing cognition across the lifespan. Multiple regression analyses indicated that the experimental BrainRx treatment group had statistically significant higher outcomes in attention, working memory, processing speed, logic and reasoning, auditory processing, visual processing and long-term memory compared to the non-treatment control group with very large effect sizes. With the exception of logic and reasoning, the BrainRx treatment group realized significantly greater gains in six of the above given seven cognitive measures compared to the Feuerstein control group. Our one-year retention measures showed that all the cognitive training gains were above ninety percent with the greatest retention skills in visual processing, auditory processing, logic, and reasoning. The BrainRx program may be an effective tool to establish long-term cognitive changes in case of students with learning disabilities. Recommendations are made for treatment centers and special education institutions on the cognitive training of students with special needs. The importance of our study is that targeted, systematic, progressively loaded and intensive brain training approach may significantly change learning disabilities.

Keywords: cognitive rehabilitation training, cognitive skills, learning disability, permanent structural cognitive changes

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Authors: Lihyo Sung

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Background: Children and teens in Korea experience extreme levels of academic stress. To perform better on the college entrance exam and gain admission to Korea’s most prestigious universities, they devote a significant portion of their early lives to studying. Because of their excessive preparation for entrance exams, students have become accustomed to passive and involuntary engagement. Any student starting university, however, faces new challenges that require more active involvement and self-regulated practice. As a way to tackle this issue, the study focuses on investigating the mediating effects of positive psychological capital on the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity among Korean university students. Objectives and Hypotheses: The long term goal of this study is to offer insights that promote the use of positive psychological interventions in the development and adaptation of career maturity. The current objective is to assess the role of positive psychological capital as a mediator between self-leadership and career maturity among Korean university students. Based on previous research, the hypotheses are: (a) self-leadership will be positively associated with indices of career maturity, and (b) positive psychological capital will partially or fully mediate the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity. Sample Characteristics and Sample Size: Participants in the current study consisted of undergraduate students enrolled in various courses at 5 large universities in Korea. A total of 181 students participated in the study. Methodology: A quantitative research design was adopted to test the hypotheses proposed in the current study. By using a cross-sectional approach to research, a self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data on indices of positive psychological capital, self-leadership, and career maturity. The data were analyzed by means of Cronbach's alpha, Pierson correlation test, multiple regression, path analysis, and SPSS for Windows version 22.0 using descriptive statistics. Results: Findings showed that positive psychological capital fully mediated the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity. Self-leadership significantly impacted positive psychological capital and career maturity, respectively. Scientific Contribution: The results of the current study provided useful insights into the role of psychological strengths such as positive psychological capital in improving self-leadership and career maturity. Institutions can assist in increasing positive psychological capital through the creation of positive experiences for undergraduate students, such as opportunities for coaching and mentoring.

Keywords: career maturity, mediating role, positive psychological capital, self-leadership

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Authors: Yuan Yue, Wen-Wei Wang

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The objective of this research is to comprehensively evaluate the impact of alkaline environments on the durability of Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) reinforcements in concrete structures and further explore their potential value within the construction industry. Specifically, we investigate the effects of two widely used high-performance concrete (HPC) materials on the durability of GFRP bars when embedded within them under varying temperature conditions. A total of 279 GFRP bar specimens were manufactured for microcosmic and mechanical performance tests. Among them, 270 specimens were used to test the residual tensile strength after 120 days of immersion, while 9 specimens were utilized for microscopic testing to analyze degradation damage. SEM techniques were employed to examine the microstructure of GFRP and cover concrete. Unidirectional tensile strength experiments were conducted to determine the remaining tensile strength after corrosion. The experimental variables consisted of four types of concrete (engineering cementitious composite (ECC), ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC), and two types of ordinary concrete with different compressive strengths) as well as three acceleration temperatures (20, 40, and 60℃). The experimental results demonstrate that high-performance concrete (HPC) offers superior protection for GFRP bars compared to ordinary concrete. Two types of HPC enhance durability through different mechanisms: one by reducing the pH of the concrete pore fluid and the other by decreasing permeability. For instance, ECC improves embedded GFRP's durability by lowering the pH of the pore fluid. After 120 days of immersion at 60°C under accelerated conditions, ECC (pH=11.5) retained 68.99% of its strength, while PC1 (pH=13.5) retained 54.88%. On the other hand, UHPC enhances FRP steel's durability by increasing porosity and compactness in its protective layer to reinforce FRP reinforcement's longevity. Due to fillers present in UHPC, it typically exhibits lower porosity, higher densities, and greater resistance to permeation compared to PC2 with similar pore fluid pH levels, resulting in varying degrees of durability for GFRP bars embedded in UHPC and PC2 after 120 days of immersion at a temperature of 60°C - with residual strengths being 66.32% and 60.89%, respectively. Furthermore, SEM analysis revealed no noticeable evidence indicating fiber deterioration in any examined specimens, thus suggesting that uneven stress distribution resulting from interface segregation and matrix damage emerges as a primary causative factor for tensile strength reduction in GFRP rather than fiber corrosion. Moreover, long-term prediction models were utilized to calculate residual strength values over time for reinforcement embedded in HPC under high temperature and high humidity conditions - demonstrating that approximately 75% of its initial strength was retained by reinforcement embedded in HPC after 100 years of service.

Keywords: GFRP bars, HPC, degeneration, durability, residual tensile strength.

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Authors: Maria Fontenele, Claude-Gilles Dussap, Vincent Dumouilla, Baptiste Boit

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Roquette Frères is a producer of plant-based ingredients that employs many processes to extract relevant molecules and often transforms them through chemical and physical processes to create desired ingredients with specific functionalities. In this context, Roquette encounters numerous multi-component complex systems in their processes, including fibers, proteins, and carbohydrates, in an aqueous environment. To develop, control, and optimize both new and old processes, Roquette aims to develop new in silico tools. Currently, Roquette uses process modelling tools which include specific thermodynamic models and is willing to develop computational methodologies such as molecular dynamics simulations to gain insights into the complex interactions in such complex media, and especially hydrogen bonding interactions. The issue at hand concerns aqueous mixtures of polyols with high dry matter content. The polyols mannitol and sorbitol molecules are diastereoisomers that have nearly identical chemical structures but very different physicochemical properties: for example, the solubility of sorbitol in water is 2.5 kg/kg of water, while mannitol has a solubility of 0.25 kg/kg of water at 25°C. Therefore, predicting liquid-solid equilibrium properties in this case requires sophisticated solution models that cannot be based solely on chemical group contributions, knowing that for mannitol and sorbitol, the chemical constitutive groups are the same. Recognizing the significance of solvation phenomena in polyols, the GePEB (Chemical Engineering, Applied Thermodynamics, and Biosystems) team at Institut Pascal has developed the COSMO-UCA model, which has the structural advantage of using quantum mechanics tools to predict formation and phase equilibrium properties. In this work, we use molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the behavior of polyols in aqueous solution. Specifically, we employ simulations to compute essential metrics such as radial distribution functions and hydrogen bond autocorrelation functions. Our findings illuminate a fundamental contrast: sorbitol and mannitol exhibit disparate hydrogen bond lifetimes within aqueous environments. This observation serves as a cornerstone in elucidating the divergent physicochemical properties inherent to each compound, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between their molecular structures and water interactions. We also present a methodology to predict the physicochemical properties of complex solutions, taking as sole input the three-dimensional structure of the molecules in the medium. Finally, by developing knowledge models, we represent some physicochemical properties of aqueous solutions of sorbitol and mannitol.

Keywords: COSMO models, hydrogen bond, molecular dynamics, thermodynamics

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Authors: Piret Pernik

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Based on strategic, operational, and technical analysis of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, this paper will examine the opportunities and risks of using small commercial drones (dual-use unmanned aerial vehicles, UAV) for military purposes. The paper discusses the opportunities and risks in the information domain, encompassing both cyber and electromagnetic interference and attacks. The paper will draw conclusions on a possible strategic impact to the battlefield outcomes in the modern armed conflicts by the widespread use of dual-use UAVs. This article will contribute to filling the gap in the literature by examining based on empirical data cyberattacks and electromagnetic interference. Today, more than one hundred states and non-state actors possess UAVs ranging from low cost commodity models, widely are dual-use, available and affordable to anyone, to high-cost combat UAVs (UCAV) with lethal kinetic strike capabilities, which can be enhanced with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Dual-use UAVs have been used by various actors for intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, situational awareness, geolocation, and kinetic targeting. Thus they function as force multipliers enabling kinetic and electronic warfare attacks and provide comparative and asymmetric operational and tactical advances. Some go as far as argue that automated (or semi-automated) systems can change the character of warfare, while others observe that the use of small drones has not changed the balance of power or battlefield outcomes. UAVs give considerable opportunities for commanders, for example, because they can be operated without GPS navigation, makes them less vulnerable and dependent on satellite communications. They can and have been used to conduct cyberattacks, electromagnetic interference, and kinetic attacks. However, they are highly vulnerable to those attacks themselves. So far, strategic studies, literature, and expert commentary have overlooked cybersecurity and electronic interference dimension of the use of dual use UAVs. The studies that link technical analysis of opportunities and risks with strategic battlefield outcomes is missing. It is expected that dual use commercial UAV proliferation in armed and hybrid conflicts will continue and accelerate in the future. Therefore, it is important to understand specific opportunities and risks related to the crowdsourced use of dual-use UAVs, which can have kinetic effects. Technical countermeasures to protect UAVs differ depending on a type of UAV (small, midsize, large, stealth combat), and this paper will offer a unique analysis of small UAVs both from the view of opportunities and risks for commanders and other actors in armed conflict.

Keywords: dual-use technology, cyber attacks, electromagnetic warfare, case studies of cyberattacks in armed conflicts

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Authors: Jhoga Parth, T. Nasar, K. V. Anand

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An idealized definition of shoreline is that it is the zone of coincidence of three spheres such as atmosphere, lithosphere, and hydrosphere. Despite its apparent simplicity, this definition in practice a challenge to apply. In reality, the shoreline location deviates continually through time, because of various dynamic factors such as wave characteristics, currents, coastal orientation and the bathymetry, which makes the shoreline volatile. This necessitates us to monitor the shoreline in a temporal basis. If shoreline’s nature is understood at particular coastal stretch, it need not be the same trend at the other location, though belonging to the same sea front. Shoreline change is hence a local phenomenon and has to be studied with great intensity considering as many factors involved as possible. Erosion and accretion of sediment are such natures of a shoreline, which needs to be quantified by comparing with its predeceasing variations and understood before implementing any coastal projects. In recent years, advent of Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) acts as an emerging tool to quantify the intra and inter annual sediment rate getting accreted or deposited compared to other conventional methods in regards with time was taken and man power. Remote sensing data, on the other hand, paves way to acquire historical sets of data where field data is unavailable with a higher resolution. Short term and long term period shoreline change can be accurately tracked and monitored using a software residing in GIS - Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) developed by United States Geological Survey (USGS). In the present study, using DSAS, End Point Rate (EPR) is calculated analyze the intra-annual changes, and Linear Rate Regression (LRR) is adopted to study inter annual changes of shoreline. The shoreline changes are quantified for the scenario during the construction of breakwater in Ponnani river inlet along Kerala coast, India. Ponnani is a major fishing and landing center located 10°47’12.81”N and 75°54’38.62”E in Malappuram district of Kerala, India. The rate of erosion and accretion is explored using satellite and field data. The full paper contains the rate of change of shoreline, and its analysis would provide us understanding the behavior of the inlet at the study area during the construction of the training walls.

Keywords: DSAS, end point rate, field measurements, geo-informatics, shoreline variation

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Authors: Pierre Tize Mha, Mohammad Jahazi, Amèvi Togne, Olivier Pantalé

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Large-size forged blocks made of medium carbon high-strength steels are extensively used in the automotive industry as dies for the production of bumpers and dashboards through the plastic injection process. The manufacturing process of the large blocks starts with ingot casting, followed by open die forging and a quench and temper heat treatment process to achieve the desired mechanical properties and numerical simulation is widely used nowadays to predict these properties before the experiment. But the temperature gradient inside the specimen remains challenging in the sense that the temperature before loading inside the material is not the same, but during the simulation, constant temperature is used to simulate the experiment because it is assumed that temperature is homogenized after some holding time. Therefore to be close to the experiment, real distribution of the temperature through the specimen is needed before the mechanical loading. Thus, We present here a robust algorithm that allows the calculation of the temperature gradient within the specimen, thus representing a real temperature distribution within the specimen before deformation. Indeed, most numerical simulations consider a uniform temperature gradient which is not really the case because the surface and core temperatures of the specimen are not identical. Another feature that influences the mechanical properties of the specimen is recrystallization which strongly depends on the deformation conditions and the type of deformation like Upsetting, Cogging...etc. Indeed, Upsetting and Cogging are the stages where the greatest deformations are observed, and a lot of microstructural phenomena can be observed, like recrystallization, which requires in-depth characterization. Complete dynamic recrystallization plays an important role in the final grain size during the process and therefore helps to increase the mechanical properties of the final product. Thus, the identification of the conditions for the initiation of dynamic recrystallization is still relevant. Also, the temperature distribution within the sample and strain rate influence the recrystallization initiation. So the development of a technique allowing to predict the initiation of this recrystallization remains challenging. In this perspective, we propose here, in addition to the algorithm allowing to get the temperature distribution before the loading stage, an analytical model leading to determine the initiation of this recrystallization. These two techniques are implemented into the Abaqus finite element software via the UAMP and VUHARD subroutines for comparison with a simulation where an isothermal temperature is imposed. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to describe the plastic behavior of the material is also implemented via the VUHARD subroutine. From the simulation, the temperature distribution inside the material and recrystallization initiation is properly predicted and compared to the literature models.

Keywords: dynamic recrystallization, finite element modeling, artificial neural network, numerical implementation

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Authors: Anshita Sharma

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India is one of the countries to initiate family planning with intention to control the growing population by reducing fertility. In effort to this, India had introduced the National family planning programme in 1952. The level of unmet need in India shows a reducing trend with increasing effectiveness of family planning services as in NFHS-1 the unmet need for limiting, spacing and total was 46 percent, 14 percent & 9 percent, respectively. The demand for spacing has reduced to at 8 percent, 8 percent for limiting and total unmet need was 16 percent in NFHS-2. The total unmet need has reduced to 13 percent in NFHS-3 for all currently married women and the demand for limiting and spacing is 7 percent and 6 percent respectively. The level of unmet need in India shows a reducing trend with increasing effectiveness of family planning services. Despite the progress, there is chunk of women who are deprived of controlling unintended and unwanted pregnancies. The present paper examines the socio-cultural and economic and demographic correlates of unmet need for contraception in India. It also examines the effect of women’s autonomy and unmet need for contraception on family size among different socio-economic groups of population. It uses data from national family health survey-3 carried out in 2005-06 and employs bi-variate techniques and multivariate techniques for analysis. The multiple regression analysis has done to seek the level and direction of relationship among various socio-economic and demographic factors. The result reveals that women with higher level of education and economic status have low level of unmet need for family planning. Women living in non-nuclear family have high unmet need for spacing and women living in nuclear family have high unmet need for limiting and family size is slightly higher of women of nuclear family. In India, the level of autonomy varies at different life point; usually women with higher age enjoy higher autonomy than their junior female member in the family. The finding shows that women with higher autonomy have large family size counter to women with low autonomy have low family size. Unmet need for family planning decrease with women’s increasing exposure to mass- media. The demographic factors like experience of child loss are directly related to family size. Women who experience higher child loss have low unmet need for spacing and limiting. Thus, It is established with the help that women’s autonomy status play substantial role in fulfilling demand of contraception for limiting and spacing which affect the family size.

Keywords: family size, socio-economic correlates, unmet need for limiting, unmet need for spacing, women`s autonomy

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Authors: Abdoulie K. Ceesay

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Within the sequence of the whole genome, it is known that 99.9% of the human genome is similar, whilst our difference lies in just 0.1%. Among these minor dissimilarities, the most common type of genetic variations that occurs in a population is SNP, which arises due to nucleotide substitution in a protein sequence that leads to protein destabilization, alteration in dynamics, and other physio-chemical properties’ distortions. While causing variations, they are equally responsible for our difference in the way we respond to a treatment or a disease, including various cancer types. There are two types of SNPs; synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (sSNP) and non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP). sSNP occur in the gene coding region without causing a change in the encoded amino acid, while nsSNP is deleterious due to its replacement of a nucleotide residue in the gene sequence that results in a change in the encoded amino acid. Predicting the effects of cancer related nsSNPs on protein stability, function, and dynamics is important due to the significance of phenotype-genotype association of cancer. In this thesis, Data of 5 oncogenes (ONGs) (AKT1, ALK, ERBB2, KRAS, BRAF) and 5 tumor suppressor genes (TSGs) (ESR1, CASP8, TET2, PALB2, PTEN) were retrieved from ClinVar. Five common in silico tools; Polyphen, Provean, Mutation Assessor, Suspect, and FATHMM, were used to predict and categorize nsSNPs as deleterious, benign, or neutral. To understand the impact of each variation on the phenotype, Maestro, PremPS, Cupsat, and mCSM-NA in silico structural prediction tools were used. This study comprises of in-depth analysis of 10 cancer gene variants downloaded from Clinvar. Various analysis of the genes was conducted to derive a meaningful conclusion from the data. Research done indicated that pathogenic variants are more common among ONGs. Our research also shows that pathogenic and destabilizing variants are more common among ONGs than TSGs. Moreover, our data indicated that ALK(409) and BRAF(86) has higher benign count among ONGs; whilst among TSGs, PALB2(1308) and PTEN(318) genes have higher benign counts. Looking at the individual cancer genes predisposition or frequencies of causing cancer according to our research data, KRAS(76%), BRAF(55%), and ERBB2(36%) among ONGs; and PTEN(29%) and ESR1(17%) among TSGs have higher tendencies of causing cancer. Obtained results can shed light to the future research in order to pave new frontiers in cancer therapies.

Keywords: tumor suppressor genes (TSGs), oncogenes (ONGs), non synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP), single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)

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Authors: Amr Mohamadien, Ali Imanpour, Sylvester Agbo, Nader Yoosef-Ghodsi, Samer Adeeb

Abstract:

The fracture toughness resistance curve (e.g., J-R curve and crack tip opening displacement (CTOD) or δ-R curve) is important in facilitating strain-based design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. This paper aims to present laboratory experimental data to characterize the fracture behavior of pipeline steel. The influential parameters associated with the fracture of API 5L X52 pipeline steel, including different initial crack sizes, were experimentally investigated for a single notch edge bend (SENB). A total of 9 small-scale specimens with different crack length to specimen depth ratios were conducted and tested using single edge notch bending (SENB). ASTM E1820 and BS7448 provide testing procedures to construct the fracture resistance curve (Load-CTOD, CTOD-R, or J-R) from test results. However, these procedures are limited by standard specimens’ dimensions, displacement gauges, and calibration curves. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents the use of small-scale specimens and a 3D-digital image correlation (DIC) system to extract the parameters required for fracture toughness estimation. Fracture resistance curve parameters in terms of crack mouth open displacement (CMOD), crack tip opening displacement (CTOD), and crack growth length (∆a) were carried out from test results by utilizing the DIC system, and an improved regression fitting resistance function (CTOD Vs. crack growth), or (J-integral Vs. crack growth) that is dependent on a variety of initial crack sizes was constructed and presented. The obtained results were compared to the available results of the classical physical measurement techniques, and acceptable matchings were observed. Moreover, a case study was implemented to estimate the maximum strain value that initiates the stable crack growth. This might be of interest to developing more accurate strain-based damage models. The results of laboratory testing in this study offer a valuable database to develop and validate damage models that are able to predict crack propagation of pipeline steel, accounting for the influential parameters associated with fracture toughness.

Keywords: fracture toughness, crack propagation in pipeline steels, CTOD-R, strain-based damage model

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Authors: Jayanta Bora, Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal, Sangeeta Kaul

Abstract:

Background: It is important for targeted interventions to consider vulnerabilities of female sex workers (FSWs) such as poverty, work-related mobility and literacy for effective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention. This paper examines the association between vulnerability and behavioural outcomes among FSWs in Thane district, Maharashtra under USAID PHFI-PIPPSE project. Methods: Data were used from the Behavioural Tracking Survey, a cross-sectional behavioural study conducted in 2015 with 503 FSWs randomly selected from 12 TI-NGOs which were functioning and providing services to FSWs in Thane district prior to April 2014 in Thane district of Maharashtra. We have created the “vulnerability index”, a composite index of literacy, factors of dependence (alternative livelihood options, current debt), and aspects of sex work (mobility and duration in sex work) as a dependent variable. The key independent measures used were program exposure to intervention, service uptake, self-confidence, and self-identity. Bi-variate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine the study objectives. Results: A higher proportion of FSWs who were in the age-group 18–25 years from brothel/street /home/ lodge-based were categorized as highly vulnerable to HIV risk as compared to bar-based sex worker (74.1% versus 59.8%, P,0.002); regression analysis highlighted lower odds of vulnerability among FSWs who were aware of services and visited NGO clinic for medical check-up and counselling for STI [AOR= 0.092, 95% CI 0.018-0.460; P,0.004], However, lower odds of vulnerability on confident in supporting fellow sex worker in crisis [AOR= 0.601, 95% CI 0.476-0.758; P, 0.000] and were able to turn away clients when they refused to use a condom during sex [AOR= 0.524, 95% CI 0.342-0.802; P, 0.003]. Conclusion: The results highlight that FSWs associated with TIs and getting services are less vulnerable and highly empowered. As a result of behavioural change communication and other services provided by TIs, FSWs were able to successfully negotiate about condom use with their clients and manage solidarity in the crisis situation for fellow FSWs. Therefore, it is evident from study paper that TI prevention programs may transform the lives of masses considerably and may open a window of opportunity to infuse the information and awareness about HIV risk.

Keywords: female sex worker, HIV prevention, HIV service uptake, vulnerability

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