Search results for: time series chaos
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19996

Search results for: time series chaos

13996 Classification of EEG Signals Based on Dynamic Connectivity Analysis

Authors: Zoran Šverko, Saša Vlahinić, Nino Stojković, Ivan Markovinović

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In this article, the classification of target letters is performed using data from the EEG P300 Speller paradigm. Neural networks trained with the results of dynamic connectivity analysis between different brain regions are used for classification. Dynamic connectivity analysis is based on the adaptive window size and the imaginary part of the complex Pearson correlation coefficient. Brain dynamics are analysed using the relative intersection of confidence intervals for the imaginary component of the complex Pearson correlation coefficient method (RICI-imCPCC). The RICI-imCPCC method overcomes the shortcomings of currently used dynamical connectivity analysis methods, such as the low reliability and low temporal precision for short connectivity intervals encountered in constant sliding window analysis with wide window size and the high susceptibility to noise encountered in constant sliding window analysis with narrow window size. This method overcomes these shortcomings by dynamically adjusting the window size using the RICI rule. This method extracts information about brain connections for each time sample. Seventy percent of the extracted brain connectivity information is used for training and thirty percent for validation. Classification of the target word is also done and based on the same analysis method. As far as we know, through this research, we have shown for the first time that dynamic connectivity can be used as a parameter for classifying EEG signals.

Keywords: dynamic connectivity analysis, EEG, neural networks, Pearson correlation coefficients

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13995 Effect of a Mindfulness Application on Graduate Nursing Student’s Stress and Anxiety

Authors: Susan K. Steele-Moses, Aimee Badeaux

Abstract:

Background Literature: Nurse anesthesia education placed high demands on students both personally and professionally. High levels of anxiety affect student’s mental, emotional, and physical well-being, which impacts their student success. Whereas more research has focused on the health and well-being of graduate students, far less has focused specifically on nurse anesthesia students (SNRAs), who may experience higher levels of anxiety due to the rigor of their academic program. Current literature describes stressors experienced by SRNAs that cause anxiety and affect their performance, including personal, academic, clinical, interpersonal, emotional, and financial. Sample: DNP-NA 2025 and DNP-NA 2024 cohorts (N = 36). Eighteen (66.7%) students participated in the study. Instrumentation: The DASS-21 was used to measure stress (7 items; α = .87) and anxiety (7 items; α = .74) from the participants. Intervention: The mind-shift meditation app, based on cognitive behavioral therapy, is being used daily before clinical and exams to decrease nurse anesthesia students’ stress and anxiety over time. Results: At baseline, the students exhibited a moderate level of stress, but their anxiety levels were low. The range of scores was 4-21 (out of 28) for stress (M = 12.88; SD = 5.40) and 0-16 (out of 28) for anxiety (M = 6.81; SD = 5.04). Both stress and anxiety were normally distributed [SW = .242 (stress); SW = .210 (anxiety)] without any outliers. There was a significant difference between their stress and anxiety levels (t = 5.55; p < .001) at baseline. Stress and anxiety will be measured over time, with the change analyzed using repeated measures ANOVA. Implications for Practice: The use of purposeful mindfulness meditation has been shown to decrease stress and anxiety in nursing students.

Keywords: mindfulness, meditation, graduate nursing education, nursing education

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13994 High Pressure Delignification Process for Nanocrystalline Cellulose Production from Agro-Waste Biomass

Authors: Sakinul Islam, Nhol Kao, Sati Bhattacharya, Rahul Gupta

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Nanocrystalline cellulose (NCC) has been widely used for miscellaneous applications due to its superior properties over other nanomaterials. However, the major problems associated with the production of NCC are long reaction time, low production rate and inefficient process. The mass production of NCC within a short period of time is still a great challenge. The main objective of this study is to produce NCC from rice husk agro waste biomass from a high pressure delignification process (HPDP), followed by bleaching and hydrolysis processes. The HPDP has not been explored for NCC production from rice husk biomass (RHB) until now. In order to produce NCC, powder rice husk (PRH) was placed into a stainless steel reactor at 80 ˚C under 5 bars. Aqueous solution of NaOH (4M) was used for the dissolution of lignin and other amorphous impurities from PRH. After certain experimental times (1h, 3.5h and 6h), bleaching and hydrolysis were carried out on delignified samples. NaOCl (20%) and H2SO4 (4M) solutions were used for bleaching and hydrolysis processes, respectively. The NCC suspension from hydrolysis was sonicated and neutralized by buffer solution for various characterisations. Finally NCC suspension was dried and analyzed by FTIR, XRD, SEM, AFM and TEM. The chemical composition of NCC and PRH was estimated by TAPPI (Technical Association of Pulp and Paper Industry) standard methods to observe the product purity. It was found that, the 6h of the HPDP was more efficient to produce good quality NCC than that at 1h and 3.5h due to low separation of non-cellulosic components from RHB. The analyses indicated the crystallinity of NCC to be 71 %, particle size of 20-50 nm (diameter) and 100-200 nm in length.

Keywords: nanocrystalline cellulose, NCC, high pressure delignification, bleaching, hydrolysis, agro-waste biomass

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13993 A Glycerol-Free Process of Biodiesel Production through Chemical Interesterification of Jatropha Oil

Authors: Ratna Dewi Kusumaningtyas, Riris Pristiyani, Heny Dewajani

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Biodiesel is commonly produced via the two main routes, i.e. the transesterification of triglycerides and the esterification of free fatty acid (FFA) using short-chain alcohols. Both the two routes have drawback in term of the side product yielded during the reaction. Transesterification reaction of triglyceride results in glycerol as side product. On the other hand, FFA esterification brings in water as side product. Both glycerol and water in the biodiesel production are managed as waste. Hence, a separation process is necessary to obtain a high purity biodiesel. Meanwhile, separation processes is generally the most capital and energy intensive part in industrial process. Therefore, to reduce the separation process, it is essential to produce biodiesel via an alternative route eliminating glycerol or water side-products. In this work, biodiesel synthesis was performed using a glycerol-free process through chemical interesterification of jatropha oil with ethyl acetate in the presence on sodium acetate catalyst. By using this method, triacetine, which is known as fuel bio-additive, is yielded instead of glycerol. This research studied the effects of catalyst concentration on the jatropha oil interesterification process in the range of 0.5 – 1.25% w/w oil. The reaction temperature and molar ratio of oil to ethyl acetate were varied at 50, 60, and 70°C, and 1:6, 1:9, 1:15, 1:30, and 1:60, respectively. The reaction time was evaluated from 0 to 8 hours. It was revealed that the best yield was obtained with the catalyst concentration of 0.5%, reaction temperature of 70 °C, molar ratio of oil to ethyl acetate at 1:60, at 6 hours reaction time.

Keywords: biodiesel, interesterification, glycerol-free, triacetine, jatropha oil

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13992 Breaking the Stained-Glass Ceiling: Personality Traits and Ambivalent Sexism in Shaping Gender Income Equality

Authors: Shiza Shahid, Saba Shahid, Kenji Noguchi, Raegan Bishop, Elena Stepanova

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According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2020, in the United States, women who worked full-time earned only 82 cents for every dollar earned by men who worked full-time, year-round. This study examined how personality traits (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability, openness to experience) interacts with ambivalent sexism to influence acceptance of gender income inequality. Using a quantitative method approach, this study collected data from a sample of N=150 students from Social Science Online Subject Pool (SONA). The study predicted that (a) extraversion and openness to experience would be positively related to acceptance of gender income inequality, while emotional stability and agreeableness would be negatively related to acceptance of gender income inequality, (b) Individuals who scored higher on measures of hostile sexism would show greater acceptance of gender income inequality than individuals who score higher on measures of benevolent sexism. The results were reported according to the predictions for the study. This study broadens the importance of addressing the underlying factors contributing to attitudes towards gender income inequality and contributes to ongoing efforts to achieve gender equality, which is important for promoting economic well-being.

Keywords: gender income ineqaulity, ambivalent sexism, personality traits, sustainable development goals

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13991 The Development and Change of Settlement in Tainan County (1904-2015) Using Historical Geographic Information System

Authors: Wei Ting Han, Shiann-Far Kung

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In the early time, most of the arable land is dry farming and using rainfall as water sources for irrigation in Tainan county. After the Chia-nan Irrigation System (CIS) was completed in 1930, Chia-nan Plain was more efficient allocation of limited water sources or irrigation, because of the benefit from irrigation systems, drainage systems, and land improvement projects. The problem of long-term drought, flood and salt damage in the past were also improved by CIS. The canal greatly improved the paddy field area and agricultural output, Tainan county has become one of the important agricultural producing areas in Taiwan. With the development of water conservancy facilities, affected by national policies and other factors, many agricultural communities and settlements are formed indirectly, also promoted the change of settlement patterns and internal structures. With the development of historical geographic information system (HGIS), Academia Sinica developed the WebGIS theme with the century old maps of Taiwan which is the most complete historical map of database in Taiwan. It can be used to overlay historical figures of different periods, present the timeline of the settlement change, also grasp the changes in the natural environment or social sciences and humanities, and the changes in the settlements presented by the visualized areas. This study will explore the historical development and spatial characteristics of the settlements in various areas of Tainan County. Using of large-scale areas to explore the settlement changes and spatial patterns of the entire county, through the dynamic time and space evolution from Japanese rule to the present day. Then, digitizing the settlement of different periods to perform overlay analysis by using Taiwan historical topographic maps in 1904, 1921, 1956 and 1989. Moreover, using document analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of regional environment and settlement structure. In addition, the comparison analysis method is used to classify the spatial characteristics and differences between the settlements. Exploring the influence of external environments in different time and space backgrounds, such as government policies, major construction, and industrial development. This paper helps to understand the evolution of the settlement space and the internal structural changes in Tainan County.

Keywords: historical geographic information system, overlay analysis, settlement change, Tainan County

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13990 Happiness and Its Political Consequences: A Proposal for a Socially Constructed Object

Authors: Luciano E. Sewaybricker

Abstract:

Psychology has faced many challenges in order to claim its right to study happiness. Probably the major issue has been to present a clear definition of happiness, which has a long history outside the scientific field and has been used imprecisely in the daily life. Even after years of great improvement, different meanings of happiness still have been seen in academic studies. This scenario allows to question if any definition is consistent enough to sustain the recent findings of the psychological processes behind happiness. Moreover, does it make sense to seek a single definition of happiness? By investigating the history of happiness and the theoretical foundations of Positive Psychology, it can be advocated that it’s proper for happiness to be polysemic. Since Ancient Greece most attempts to outline happiness consists of an appreciation of the "best way to live" and consequently requires a delineation of the most important things in life. Besides this generic definition, it’s hard to find consensus about happiness. In fact, what and how much something will be considered important to happiness depend on social influence. This compels happiness to vary between groups, historical periods, and even for the same person over time. Therefore, the same psychological processes will not necessarily be behind all forms of happiness. Consequently, three assumptions should be considered when studying happiness: it’s intrinsic of happiness to be transitory and socially influenced; happiness refers not only to what is possible in the present, but also to an ideal future; when someone (including a scientist) talks about happiness they describe and prescribe a better way to live. Because any attempt to define happiness will be limited in space and time, it's more suitable to study its variations than its universalities. This may have considerable consequences to political agenda on happiness evaluation and maximization, like Gross National Happiness and utilitarian initiatives. Happiness policies should be understood as an arbitrary choice amongst all kinds of happiness and as prescriptive of what “the best way to live” should be.

Keywords: happiness, politics, positive psychology, well-being

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13989 Reverse Engineering Genius: Through the Lens of World Language Collaborations

Authors: Cynthia Briggs, Kimberly Gerardi

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Over the past six years, the authors have been working together on World Language Collaborations in the Middle School French Program at St. Luke's School in New Canaan, Connecticut, USA. Author 2 brings design expertise to the projects, and both teachers have utilized the fabrication lab, emerging technologies, and collaboration with students. Each year, author 1 proposes a project scope, and her students are challenged to design and engineer a signature project. Both partners have improved the iterative process to ensure deeper learning and sustained student inquiry. The projects range from a 1:32 scale model of the Eiffel Tower that was CNC routed to a fully functional jukebox that plays francophone music, lights up, and can hold up to one thousand songs powered by Raspberry Pi. The most recent project is a Fragrance Marketplace, culminating with a pop-up store for the entire community to discover. Each student will learn the history of fragrance and the chemistry behind making essential oils. Students then create a unique brand, marketing strategy, and concept for their signature fragrance. They are further tasked to use the industrial design process (bottling, packaging, and creating a brand name) to finalize their product for the public Marketplace. Sometimes, these dynamic projects require maintenance and updates. For example, our wall-mounted, three-foot francophone clock is constantly changing. The most recent iteration uses Chat GPT to program the Arduino to reconcile the real-time clock shield and keep perfect time as each hour passes. The lights, motors, and sounds from the clock are authentic to each region, represented with laser-cut embellishments. Inspired by Michel Parmigiani, the history of Swiss watch-making, and the precision of time instruments, we aim for perfection with each passing minute. The authors aim to share exemplary work that is possible with students of all ages. We implemented the reverse engineering process to focus on student outcomes to refine our collaborative process. The products that our students create are prime examples of how the design engineering process is applicable across disciplines. The authors firmly believe that the past and present of World cultures inspire innovation.

Keywords: collaboration, design thinking, emerging technologies, world language

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13988 Evolution of Deformation in the Southern Central Tunisian Atlas: Parameters and Modelling

Authors: Mohamed Sadok Bensalem, Soulef Amamria, Khaled Lazzez, Mohamed Ghanmi

Abstract:

The southern-central Tunisian Atlas presents a typical example of an external zone. It occupies a particular position in the North African chains: firstly, it is the eastern limit of atlassic structures; secondly, it is the edges between the belts structures to the north and the stable Saharan platform in the south. The evolution of deformation study is based on several methods, such as classical or numerical methods. The principals parameters controlling the genesis of folds in the southern central Tunisian Atlas are; the reactivation of pre-existing faults during the later compressive phase, the evolution of decollement level, and the relation between thin and thick-skinned. One of the more principal characters of the southern-central Tunisian Atlas is the variation of belts structures directions determined by: NE-SW direction, named the attlassic direction in Tunisia, the NW-SE direction carried along the Gafsa fault (the oriental limit of southern atlassic accident), and the E-W direction defined in the southern Tunisian Atlas. This variation of direction is the result of important variation of deformation during different tectonics phases. A classical modelling of the Jebel ElKebar anticline, based on faults throw of the pre-existing faults and its reactivation during compressive phases, shows the importance of extensional deformation, particular during Aptian-Albian period, comparing with that of later compression (Alpine phases). A numerical modelling, based on the software Rampe E.M. 1.5.0, applied on the anticline of Jebel Orbata confirms the interpretation of “fault related fold” with decollement level within the Triassic successions. The other important parameter of evolution of deformation is the vertical migration of decollement level; indeed, more than the decollement level is in the recent series, most that the deformation is accentuated. The evolution of deformation is marked the development of duplex structure in Jebel At Taghli (eastern limit of Jebel Orbata). Consequently, the evolution of deformation is proportional to the depth of the decollement level, the most important deformation is in the higher successions; thus, is associated to the thin-skinned deformation; the decollement level permit the passive transfer of deformation in the cover.

Keywords: evolution of deformation, pre-existing faults, decollement level, thin-skinned

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13987 The Study of the Physical, Chemical and Mechanical Properties of Recycled Thermoplastic Polypropylene and Polyamide Materials Used in the Automotive Industry

Authors: Sevim Gecici, Erdinc Doganci

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Thermoplastic materials are widely used in the automotive industry due to their lightweight nature, durability, recyclability and versatility in shaping. They serve various purposes in the automotive sector, including interior and exterior components, vehicle body parts and insulation. The recycling of thermoplastic polymer materials used in the automotive industry helps reduce waste and mitigate environmental impacts. The aim of this study is to facilitate the recycling of thermoplastic materials used in the automotive industry. Recycled materials, such as sprues and defective parts, are generated from thermoplastic polymer materials used in the automotive sector after the injection process. In this study, the physical, chemical and mechanical properties of the recycled parts obtained from the reprocessing of these materials were determined through various tests. Thermoplastic products (PP and PA) that were recycled after the injection process were processed through a grinding unit and then subjected to a second injection process with physical, chemical and mechanical tests applied to the resulting products. This is a result of the initial grinding process. The same procedures were applied to each thermoplastic material through a series of steps first injection, first grinding, second injection, second grinding, third injection, third grinding, fourth injection and fourth grinding, followed by product testing. Subsequently, the test results of the original raw material's Technical Data Sheet (TDS) were compared with the results obtained from the products after the injection process to determine the raw material based on physical, chemical and mechanical changes. The study included tests for Density, Melt Flow Rate, Tensile Modulus, Tensile Stress, Flexural Modulus (Injection Molded), Charpy Notched Impact Strength, Notched Izod Impact Strength, Shore Hardness, Heat Deflection Temperature, Vicat Softening Temperature and UV tests. Additionally, more specific tests such as Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA), Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), Heat Aging, FTIR, SEM and TEM analyses were conducted to examine structural changes in thermoplastic materials subjected to multiple recycling processes. In the later stages of the study, injection molding process trials will be conducted with raw materials such as ABS, PC, PC-ABS and PE.

Keywords: injection molding, recycling, automotive, polypropylene, thermoplastic

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13986 Artificial Intelligence in Art and Other Sectors: Selected Aspects of Mutual Impact

Authors: Justyna Minkiewicz

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) applied in the arts may influence the development of AI knowledge in other sectors and then also impact mutual collaboration with the artistic environment. Hence this collaboration may also impact the development of art projects. The paper will reflect the qualitative research outcomes based on in-depth (IDI) interviews within the marketing sector in Poland and desk research. Art is a reflection of the spirit of our times. Moreover, now we are experiencing a significant acceleration in the development of technologies and their use in various sectors. The leading technologies that contribute to the development of the economy, including the creative sector, embrace technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, extended reality, voice processing, and virtual beings. Artificial intelligence is one of the leading technologies developed for several decades, which is currently reaching a high level of interest and use in various sectors. However, the conducted research has shown that there is still low awareness of artificial intelligence and its wide application in various sectors. The study will show how artists use artificial intelligence in their art projects and how it can be translated into practice within the business. At the same time, the paper will raise awareness of the need for businesses to be inspired by the artistic environment. The research proved that there is still a need to popularize knowledge about this technology which is crucial for many sectors. Art projects are tools to develop knowledge and awareness of society and also various sectors. At the same time, artists may benefit from such collaboration. The paper will include selected aspects of mutual relations, areas of possible inspiration, and possible transfers of technological solutions. Those are AI applications in creative industries such as advertising and film, image recognition in art, and projects from different sectors.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, business, art, creative industry, technology

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13985 Diagnosis of Induction Machine Faults by DWT

Authors: Hamidreza Akbari

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In this paper, for detection of inclined eccentricity in an induction motor, time–frequency analysis of the stator startup current is carried out. For this purpose, the discrete wavelet transform is used. Data are obtained from simulations, using winding function approach. The results show the validity of the approach for detecting the fault and discriminating with respect to other faults.

Keywords: induction machine, fault, DWT, electric

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13984 Development of Antioxidant Rich Bakery Products by Applying Lysine and Maillard Reaction Products

Authors: Attila Kiss, Erzsébet Némedi, Zoltán Naár

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Due to the rapidly growing number of conscious customers in the recent years, more and more people look for products with positive physiological effects which may contribute to the preservation of their health. In response to these demands Food Science Research Institute of Budapest develops and introduces into the market new functional foods of guaranteed positive effect that contain bioactive agents. New, efficient technologies are also elaborated in order to preserve the maximum biological effect of the produced foods. The main objective of our work was the development of new functional biscuits fortified with physiologically beneficial ingredients. Bakery products constitute the base of the food nutrients’ pyramid, thus they might be regarded as foodstuffs of the largest consumed quantity. In addition to the well-known and certified physiological benefits of lysine, as an essential amino acid, a series of antioxidant type compounds is formed as a consequence of the occurring Maillard-reaction. Progress of the evoked Maillard-reaction was studied by applying diverse sugars (glucose, fructose, saccharose, isosugar) and lysine at several temperatures (120-170°C). Interval of thermal treatment was also varied (10-30 min). The composition and production technologies were tailored in order to reach the maximum of the possible biological benefits, so as to the highest antioxidant capacity in the biscuits. Out of the examined sugar components, theextent of the Maillard-reaction-driven transformation of glucose was the most pronounced at both applied temperatures. For the precise assessment of the antioxidant activity of the products FRAP and DPPH methods were adapted and optimised. To acquire an authentic and extensive mechanism of the occurring transformations, Maillard-reaction products were identified, and relevant reaction pathways were revealed. GC-MS and HPLC-MS techniques were applied for the analysis of the 60 generated MRPs and characterisation of actual transformation processes. 3 plausible major transformation routes might have been suggested based on the analytical result and the deductive sequence of possible occurring conversions between lysine and the sugars.

Keywords: Maillard-reaction, lysine, antioxidant activity, GC-MS and HPLC-MS techniques

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13983 Study of the Effect of Voltage and PH on the Inactivation of Byssochlamys fulva in Tomato Juice by Ohmic Process

Authors: Arash Dara, Mahsa Mokhtari, Nafiseh Zamindar

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The aim of this study was to determine the effect of thermal resistance, temperature, voltage, and pH changes in an ohmic heating system on reducing the logarithmic number of Byssochlamys fulva species (PTCC 5062) in tomato juice water and to investigate the quantitative properties of tomato juice in the ohmic heating pasteurization system. The percentage of thermal degradation by ohmic heating was determined in tomato juice for the kinetics of Byssochlamys fulva in ohmic chamber at the temperatures of 88, 93, and 98°C, with two voltages of 30 and 40 volts and two pH levels of 3.5 and 4.5; this was done using Weibull frequency distribution model. Three different parameters (pH = 3.5, two voltages of 30 and 40, at three temperatures 88, 93, and 98) and (pH = 4.5, two voltages 30 and 40, at three temperatures 88, 93, and 98) in three replications were considered in the ohmic system. Heating time for the temperature of 88°C was 20 minutes once every 2 minutes, while for the temperature of 93°C, it was 10 minutes once every 1 minute. At the temperature of 98°C, the first time was 0.5 minutes, and for other times, sampling was done every 1 minute. In each condition, the qualitative characteristics, including acidity, Brix, and pH, were measured before and after the ohmic process in the tomato juice. This study demonstrates that the differences in pH and voltage due to different temperatures in the ohmic process can greatly affect the inactivation of Byssochlamys fulva fungus and the qualitative characteristics of the tomato juice. This is the first study using the Weibull frequency method to model the inactivation of Byssochlamys fulva in tomato juice. Variation in parameters such as temperature, voltage, and pH can prevent the presence of Byssochlamys fulva in the pasteurized juices.

Keywords: pasteurization, ohmic heating process, Byssochlamys fulva, tomato juice, heat resistance, voltage, pH

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13982 The Regionalism Paradox in the Fight against Human Trafficking: Indonesia and the Limits of Regional Cooperation in ASEAN

Authors: Nur Iman Subono, Meidi Kosandi

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This paper examines the role of regional cooperation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the fight against human trafficking for Indonesia. Many among scholars suggest that regional cooperation is necessary for combating human trafficking for its transnational and organized character as a crime against humanity. ASEAN members have been collectively active in responding transnational security issues with series of talks and collaboration agreement since early 2000s. Lately in 2015, ASEAN agreed on ASEAN Convention against Trafficking in Persons, particularly Women and Children (ACTIP) that requires each member to collaborate in information sharing and providing effective safeguard and protection of victims. Yet, the frequency of human trafficking crime occurrence remains high and tend to increase in Indonesian in 2017-2018. The objective of this paper is to examine the effectiveness and success of ACTIP implementation in the fight against human trafficking in Indonesia. Based on two years of research (2017-2018) in three provinces with the largest number of victims in Indonesia, this paper shows the tendency of persisting crime despite the implementation of regional and national anti-trafficking policies. The research was conducted by archive study, literature study, discourse analysis, and depth interviews with local government officials, police, prosecutors, victims, and traffickers. This paper argues that the relative success of ASEAN in establishing convention at the high-level meetings has not been followed with the success in its implementation in the society. Three main factors have contributed to the ineffectiveness of the agreements, i.e. (1) ASEAN institutional arrangement as a collection of sovereign states instead of supranational organization with binding authority; (2) the lack of commitment of ASEAN sovereign member-states to the agreements; and (3) the complexity and variety of the nature of the crime in each member-state. In effect, these factors have contributed to generating the regionalism paradox in ASEAN where states tend to revert to national policies instead of seeking regional collective solution.

Keywords: human trafficking, transnational security, regionalism, anti trafficking policy

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13981 Brain-Computer Interface Based Real-Time Control of Fixed Wing and Multi-Rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Authors: Ravi Vishwanath, Saumya Kumaar, S. N. Omkar

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Brain-computer interfacing (BCI) is a technology that is almost four decades old, and it was developed solely for the purpose of developing and enhancing the impact of neuroprosthetics. However, in the recent times, with the commercialization of non-invasive electroencephalogram (EEG) headsets, the technology has seen a wide variety of applications like home automation, wheelchair control, vehicle steering, etc. One of the latest developed applications is the mind-controlled quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle. These applications, however, do not require a very high-speed response and give satisfactory results when standard classification methods like Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLPC). Issues are faced when there is a requirement for high-speed control in the case of fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles where such methods are rendered unreliable due to the low speed of classification. Such an application requires the system to classify data at high speeds in order to retain the controllability of the vehicle. This paper proposes a novel method of classification which uses a combination of Common Spatial Paradigm and Linear Discriminant Analysis that provides an improved classification accuracy in real time. A non-linear SVM based classification technique has also been discussed. Further, this paper discusses the implementation of the proposed method on a fixed-wing and VTOL unmanned aerial vehicles.

Keywords: brain-computer interface, classification, machine learning, unmanned aerial vehicles

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13980 Self-Inflicted Major Trauma: Inpatient Mental Health Management and Patient Outcomes

Authors: M. Walmsley, S. Elmatarri, S. Mannion

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Introduction: Self-inflicted injury is a recognised cause of major trauma in adults and is an independent indicator of a reduced functional outcome compared to non-intentional major trauma. There is little literature available on the inpatient mental health (MH) management of this vulnerable group. A retrospective review was conducted of inpatient MH management of major trauma patients admitted to a UK regional Major Trauma Centre (MTC). Their outcomes were compared to all major trauma patients. This group of patients required multiple MH interventions whilst on the Major Trauma Ward (MTW) and a had worse functional outcome compared to non-intentional trauma. Method: The national TARN (Trauma Audit and Research Network) database was used to identify patients admitted to a regional MTC over a 2-year period from June 2018 to July 2020. Patients with an ISS (Injury Severity Score) of greater than 15 with a mechanism of either self-harm or high-risk behavior were included for further analysis. Inpatient medical notes were reviewed for MH interventions on the MTW. Further outcomes, including mortality, length of stay (LOS) and Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) were compared with all major trauma patients for the same time period. Results: A total of 60 patients were identified in the time period and of those, 27 spent time on the MTW. A total of 23 (85%) had a prior MH diagnosis, with 11 (41%) under the care of secondary MH services. Adequate inpatient records for review were available for 24 patients. During their inpatient stay, 8 (33%) were reviewed on the ward by the inpatient MH team. There were 10 interventions required for 6 (25%) patients on the MTW including, sections under the Mental Health Act, transfer to specialist MH facility, pharmacological sedation and security being called to the MTW. When compared to all major trauma patients, those admitted due to self-harm or high-risk behavior had a statistically significantly higher ISS (31.43 vs 24.22, p=0.0001) and LOS (23.51d vs 16.06d, p=0.002). Functional outcomes using the GOS were reduced in this group of patients, GOS 5 (low disability) (51.66% vs. 61.01%) and they additionally had a higher level of mortality, GOS 1 (15.00% vs 11.67%). Discussion: Intentional self-harm is a recognised cause of major trauma in adults and this patient group sustains more severe injuries, requiring a longer hospital stay with worse outcomes compared to all major trauma patients. Inpatient MH interventions are required for a significant proportion of these patients and therefore, there needs to be a close relationship with MH services. There is limited available evidence for how this patient group is best managed as an inpatient to aid their recovery and further work is needed on how outcomes in this vulnerable group can be improved.

Keywords: adult major trauma, attempted suicide, self-inflicted major trauma, inpatient management

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13979 Microwave Assisted Solvent-free Catalytic Transesterification of Glycerol to Glycerol Carbonate

Authors: Wai Keng Teng, Gek Cheng Ngoh, Rozita Yusoff, Mohamed Kheireddine Aroua

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As a by-product of the biodiesel industries, glycerol has been vastly generated which surpasses the market demand. It is imperative to develop an efficient glycerol valorization processes in minimizing the net energy requirement and intensifying the biodiesel production. In this study, base-catalyzed transesterification of glycerol with dimethyl carbonate using microwave irradiation as heating method to produce glycerol carbonate was conducted by varing grades of glycerol i.e. 70%, 86% and 99% purity that obtained from biodiesel plant. Metal oxide catalysts were used with varying operating parameters including reaction time, DMC/glycerol molar ratio, catalyst weight %, temperature and stirring speed. From the study on the effect of different operating parameters; it was found that the type of catalyst used has the most significant effect on the transesterification reaction. Admist the metal oxide catalysts examined, CaO gave the best performance. This study indicates the feasibility of producing glycerol carbonate using different grade of glycerol in both conventional thermal activation and microwave irradiation with CaO as catalyst. Microwave assisted transesterification (MAT) of glycerol into glycerol carbonate has demostrated itself as an energy efficient route by achieving 94.3% yield of GC at 65°C, 5 minutes reaction time, 1 wt% CaO and DMC/glycerol molar ratio of 2. The advantages of MAT transesterification route has made the direct utilization of bioglycerol from biodiesel production without the need of purification. This has marked a more economical and less-energy intensive glycerol carbonate synthesis route.

Keywords: base-catalyzed transesterification, glycerol, glycerol carbonate, microwave irradiation

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13978 A Protocol for Usability of Teaching to Students with Learning Difficulties at University: An Italian Research

Authors: Tamara Zappaterra

Abstract:

The Learning Difficulties have an evolutionary nature. The international research has focused its analysis on the characteristics of Learning Difficulties in childhood, but we are still far from a thorough understanding of the nature of such disorders in adolescence and adulthood. Such issues become even more urgent in the university context. Spelling, meaning, and appropriate use of the specific vocabulary of the various disciplines represent an additional challenge for the dyslexic student. This paper explores the characteristics of Learning Difficulties in adulthood and the impact with the university teaching. It presents the results of an interdisciplinary project (educational, medical and engineering area) at University of Florence. The purpose of project is to design of a protocol for usability of teaching and individual study at university level. The project, after a first reconnaissance of user needs that have been reached with the participation of the very same protagonists, is at the stage of guidelines drafting for inclusion and education, to be used by teachers, students and administrative staff. The methodologies used are a questionnaire built on purpose and a series of focus groups with users. For collecting data during the focus groups it was decided to use a method typical of the Quality Function Deployment, a tool originally used for quality management, whose versatility makes it easy to use in a number of different context. The paper presents furthermore the findings of the project, the most significant elements of the guidelines for teaching, i.e. the section for teachers, whose aim is to implement a Learning Difficulties-friendly teaching, even at the university level, in compliance with italian Law 170/2010. The Guidelines for the didactic and inclusion of Learning Difficulties students of the University of Florence are articulated around a global and systemic plan of action, meant to accompany and protect the students during their study career, even before enrolling at the University, with different declination: the logistical, relational, educational, and didactic levels have been considered. These guidelines in Italy received the endorsement of the CNUDD. It is a systemic intervention plan for Learning Difficulties students, which roused and keeps rousing the interest of all the university system, with a radical consideration on academic teaching. Since while we try to provide the best Learning Difficulties-friendly didactic in compliance with the rules, no one can be exempted from a wider consideration on the nature and the quality of university teaching offered to all students.

Keywords: didactic tools, learning difficulties, special and inclusive education, university teaching

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13977 Comparison of the Effects of Continuous Flow Microwave Pre-Treatment with Different Intensities on the Anaerobic Digestion of Sewage Sludge for Sustainable Energy Recovery from Sewage Treatment Plant

Authors: D. Hephzibah, P. Kumaran, N. M. Saifuddin

Abstract:

Anaerobic digestion is a well-known technique for sustainable energy recovery from sewage sludge. However, sewage sludge digestion is restricted due to certain factors. Pre-treatment methods have been established in various publications as a promising technique to improve the digestibility of the sewage sludge and to enhance the biogas generated which can be used for energy recovery. In this study, continuous flow microwave (MW) pre-treatment with different intensities were compared by using 5 L semi-continuous digesters at a hydraulic retention time of 27 days. We focused on the effects of MW at different intensities on the sludge solubilization, sludge digestibility, and biogas production of the untreated and MW pre-treated sludge. The MW pre-treatment demonstrated an increase in the ratio of soluble chemical oxygen demand to total chemical oxygen demand (sCOD/tCOD) and volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentration. Besides that, the total volatile solid (TVS) removal efficiency and tCOD removal efficiency also increased during the digestion of the MW pre-treated sewage sludge compared to the untreated sewage sludge. Furthermore, the biogas yield also subsequently increases due to the pre-treatment effect. A higher MW power level and irradiation time generally enhanced the biogas generation which has potential for sustainable energy recovery from sewage treatment plant. However, the net energy balance tabulation shows that the MW pre-treatment leads to negative net energy production.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas, microwave pre-treatment, sewage sludge

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13976 Numerical Buckling of Composite Cylindrical Shells under Axial Compression Using Asymmetric Meshing Technique (AMT)

Authors: Zia R. Tahir, P. Mandal

Abstract:

This paper presents the details of a numerical study of buckling and post buckling behaviour of laminated carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) thin-walled cylindrical shell under axial compression using asymmetric meshing technique (AMT) by ABAQUS. AMT is considered to be a new perturbation method to introduce disturbance without changing geometry, boundary conditions or loading conditions. Asymmetric meshing affects both predicted buckling load and buckling mode shapes. Cylindrical shell having lay-up orientation [0°/+45°/-45°/0°] with radius to thickness ratio (R/t) equal to 265 and length to radius ratio (L/R) equal to 1.5 is analysed numerically. A series of numerical simulations (experiments) are carried out with symmetric and asymmetric meshing to study the effect of asymmetric meshing on predicted buckling behaviour. Asymmetric meshing technique is employed in both axial direction and circumferential direction separately using two different methods, first by changing the shell element size and varying the total number elements, and second by varying the shell element size and keeping total number of elements constant. The results of linear analysis (Eigenvalue analysis) and non-linear analysis (Riks analysis) using symmetric meshing agree well with analytical results. The results of numerical analysis are presented in form of non-dimensional load factor, which is the ratio of buckling load using asymmetric meshing technique to buckling load using symmetric meshing technique. Using AMT, load factor has about 2% variation for linear eigenvalue analysis and about 2% variation for non-linear Riks analysis. The behaviour of load end-shortening curve for pre-buckling is same for both symmetric and asymmetric meshing but for asymmetric meshing curve behaviour in post-buckling becomes extraordinarily complex. The major conclusions are: different methods of AMT have small influence on predicted buckling load and significant influence on load displacement curve behaviour in post buckling; AMT in axial direction and AMT in circumferential direction have different influence on buckling load and load displacement curve in post-buckling.

Keywords: CFRP composite cylindrical shell, asymmetric meshing technique, primary buckling, secondary buckling, linear eigenvalue analysis, non-linear riks analysis

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13975 Biofuel Potential and Invasive Species Control: Exploring Prosopis Juliflora Pod Mash for Sustainable Energy Production

Authors: Mebrahtu Haile

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Fuels obtained from renewable resources have garnered significant enthusiasm in recent decades due to concerns about fossil fuel depletion and climate change. This study aimed to investigate the potential of Prosopis juliflora pods mash for bio-ethanol production and its hydrolysis solid waste for solid fuel. Various parameters, such as acid concentration, hydrolysis times, fermentation times, fermentation temperature, and pH, were evaluated for their impact on bio-ethanol production using Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast. The results showed that increasing acid concentration (up to 1 molar H₂SO₄) led to an increase in sugar content, reaching a maximum of 96.13%v/v. Optimal conditions for bio-ethanol production were found at 1 molar H₂SO₄ concentration (4.2%v/v), 48 hours fermentation time (5.1%v/v), 20 minutes hydrolysis time (5.57%v/v), 30°C fermentation temperature (5.57%v/v), and pH 5 (6.01%v/v), resulting in a maximum bio-ethanol yield of 6.01%v/v. The solid waste remaining after bio-ethanol production exhibited potential for use as a solid fuel, with a calorific value of 18.22 MJ/kg. These findings demonstrate the promising potential of Prosopis juliflora pods mash for bio-ethanol production and suggest a viable solution for addressing disposal challenges associated with solid waste, contributing to the exploration of renewable fuel sources in the face of fossil fuel depletion and climate change.

Keywords: prosopis juliflora, pods mash, invasive species, bio-ethanol, fermentation, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, solid fuel

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13974 Composite Approach to Extremism and Terrorism Web Content Classification

Authors: Kolade Olawande Owoeye, George Weir

Abstract:

Terrorism and extremism activities on the internet are becoming the most significant threats to national security because of their potential dangers. In response to this challenge, law enforcement and security authorities are actively implementing comprehensive measures by countering the use of the internet for terrorism. To achieve the measures, there is need for intelligence gathering via the internet. This includes real-time monitoring of potential websites that are used for recruitment and information dissemination among other operations by extremist groups. However, with billions of active webpages, real-time monitoring of all webpages become almost impossible. To narrow down the search domain, there is a need for efficient webpage classification techniques. This research proposed a new approach tagged: SentiPosit-based method. SentiPosit-based method combines features of the Posit-based method and the Sentistrenght-based method for classification of terrorism and extremism webpages. The experiment was carried out on 7500 webpages obtained through TENE-webcrawler by International Cyber Crime Research Centre (ICCRC). The webpages were manually grouped into three classes which include the ‘pro-extremist’, ‘anti-extremist’ and ‘neutral’ with 2500 webpages in each category. A supervised learning algorithm is then applied on the classified dataset in order to build the model. Results obtained was compared with existing classification method using the prediction accuracy and runtime. It was observed that our proposed hybrid approach produced a better classification accuracy compared to existing approaches within a reasonable runtime.

Keywords: sentiposit, classification, extremism, terrorism

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13973 Delay in the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis and Initiation of TB Treatment in the Private and Public Health Sectors, Udaipur District, Rajasthan, India, Nov 2013

Authors: Yogita Tulsian, R. S. Gupta, K. F. Laserson

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Background: Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of TB facilitates disease transmission in the community, so we conducted a study to evaluate the burden of and risk factors for delay in TB diagnosis and initiation of TB treatment among patients in the private and public sectors in Udaipur district, Rajasthan, India. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 100 new sputum-positive TB. Patients were interviewed in the intensive phase of treatment September 2013-November 2013 Long total diagnosis delay (TDD) was defined as a time interval between first symptom to confirmed diagnosis > 30 days. Long health treatment delay (HTD) was defined as a time interval between confirmed diagnosis to treatment initiation > 7 days. Results: We observed a median TDD of 55 days (range: 7-136 days) in the public sector and of 92 days (11-380 days) in the private sector. Long TDD in the private sector was significantly associated with middle-higher socio-economic status (Risk Ratio (RR): 2;95% CI: 1.3-3). The reasons reported from the private sector for long TDD were suspect TB patients not advised for sputum examination (RR: 42; 95% CI:2.6-660), practise of self-medication (RR: 17.4; 95% CI: 1.1-267), or lack of awareness (RR: 9.7;95% CI: 0.6-145). The median HTD in the public sector was 3 days (range: 0-14 days), and in the private sector, 2 days (range: 0-11 days) (non-significant difference). Conclusions: Long TDD in private sector may be improved through sputum referral for all suspect TB cases and better education to all regarding TB.

Keywords: diagnosis delay, treatment delay, privatesector, public sector

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13972 The Impact of Two Factors on EFL Learners' Fluency

Authors: Alireza Behfar, Mohammad Mahdavi

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Nowadays, in the light of progress in the world of science, technology and communications, mastery of learning international languages is a sure and needful matter. In learning any language as a second language, progress and achieving a desirable level in speaking is indeed important for approximately all learners. In this research, we find out how preparation can influence L2 learners' oral fluency with respect to individual differences in working memory capacity. The participants consisted of sixty-one advanced L2 learners including MA students of TEFL at Isfahan University as well as instructors teaching English at Sadr Institute in Isfahan. The data collection consisted of two phases: A working memory test (reading span test) and a picture description task, with a one-month interval between the two tasks. Speaking was elicited through speech generation task in which the individuals were asked to discuss four topics emerging in two pairs. The two pairs included one simple and one complex topic and was accompanied by planning time and without any planning time respectively. Each topic was accompanied by several relevant pictures. L2 fluency was assessed based on preparation. The data were then analyzed in terms of the number of syllables, the number of silent pauses, and the mean length of pauses produced per minute. The study offers implications for strategies to improve learners’ both fluency and working memory.

Keywords: two factors, fluency, working memory capacity, preparation, L2 speech production reading span test picture description

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13971 Remote BioMonitoring of Mothers and Newborns for Temperature Surveillance Using a Smart Wearable Sensor: Techno-Feasibility Study and Clinical Trial in Southern India

Authors: Prem K. Mony, Bharadwaj Amrutur, Prashanth Thankachan, Swarnarekha Bhat, Suman Rao, Maryann Washington, Annamma Thomas, N. Sheela, Hiteshwar Rao, Sumi Antony

Abstract:

The disease burden among mothers and newborns is caused mostly by a handful of avoidable conditions occurring around the time of childbirth and within the first month following delivery. Real-time monitoring of vital parameters of mothers and neonates offers a potential opportunity to impact access as well as the quality of care in vulnerable populations. We describe the design, development and testing of an innovative wearable device for remote biomonitoring (RBM) of body temperatures in mothers and neonates in a hospital in southern India. The architecture consists of: [1] a low-cost, wearable sensor tag; [2] a gateway device for ‘real-time’ communication link; [3] piggy-backing on a commercial GSM communication network; and [4] an algorithm-based data analytics system. Requirements for the device were: long battery-life upto 28 days (with sampling frequency 5/hr); robustness; IP 68 hermetic sealing; and human-centric design. We undertook pre-clinical laboratory testing followed by clinical trial phases I & IIa for evaluation of safety and efficacy in the following sequence: seven healthy adult volunteers; 18 healthy mothers; and three sets of babies – 3 healthy babies; 10 stable babies in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) and 1 baby with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE). The 3-coin thickness, pebble-design sensor weighing about 8 gms was secured onto the abdomen for the baby and over the upper arm for adults. In the laboratory setting, the response-time of the sensor device to attain thermal equilibrium with the surroundings was 4 minutes vis-a-vis 3 minutes observed with a precision-grade digital thermometer used as a reference standard. The accuracy was ±0.1°C of the reference standard within the temperature range of 25-40°C. The adult volunteers, aged 20 to 45 years, contributed a total of 345 hours of readings over a 7-day period and the postnatal mothers provided a total of 403 paired readings. The mean skin temperatures measured in the adults by the sensor were about 2°C lower than the axillary temperature readings (sensor =34.1 vs digital = 36.1); this difference was statistically significant (t-test=13.8; p<0.001). The healthy neonates provided a total of 39 paired readings; the mean difference in temperature was 0.13°C (sensor =36.9 vs digital = 36.7; p=0.2). The neonates in the NICU provided a total of 130 paired readings. Their mean skin temperature measured by the sensor was 0.6°C lower than that measured by the radiant warmer probe (sensor =35.9 vs warmer probe = 36.5; p < 0.001). The neonate with HIE provided a total of 25 paired readings with the mean sensor reading being not different from the radian warmer probe reading (sensor =33.5 vs warmer probe = 33.5; p=0.8). No major adverse events were noted in both the adults and neonates; four adult volunteers reported mild sweating under the device/arm band and one volunteer developed mild skin allergy. This proof-of-concept study shows that real-time monitoring of temperatures is technically feasible and that this innovation appears to be promising in terms of both safety and accuracy (with appropriate calibration) for improved maternal and neonatal health.

Keywords: public health, remote biomonitoring, temperature surveillance, wearable sensors, mothers and newborns

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13970 Investigating Dynamic Transition Process of Issues Using Unstructured Text Analysis

Authors: Myungsu Lim, William Xiu Shun Wong, Yoonjin Hyun, Chen Liu, Seongi Choi, Dasom Kim, Namgyu Kim

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The amount of real-time data generated through various mass media has been increasing rapidly. In this study, we had performed topic analysis by using the unstructured text data that is distributed through news article. As one of the most prevalent applications of topic analysis, the issue tracking technique investigates the changes of the social issues that identified through topic analysis. Currently, traditional issue tracking is conducted by identifying the main topics of documents that cover an entire period at the same time and analyzing the occurrence of each topic by the period of occurrence. However, this traditional issue tracking approach has limitation that it cannot discover dynamic mutation process of complex social issues. The purpose of this study is to overcome the limitations of the existing issue tracking method. We first derived core issues of each period, and then discover the dynamic mutation process of various issues. In this study, we further analyze the mutation process from the perspective of the issues categories, in order to figure out the pattern of issue flow, including the frequency and reliability of the pattern. In other words, this study allows us to understand the components of the complex issues by tracking the dynamic history of issues. This methodology can facilitate a clearer understanding of complex social phenomena by providing mutation history and related category information of the phenomena.

Keywords: Data Mining, Issue Tracking, Text Mining, topic Analysis, topic Detection, Trend Detection

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13969 Multi-Temporal Mapping of Built-up Areas Using Daytime and Nighttime Satellite Images Based on Google Earth Engine Platform

Authors: S. Hutasavi, D. Chen

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The built-up area is a significant proxy to measure regional economic growth and reflects the Gross Provincial Product (GPP). However, an up-to-date and reliable database of built-up areas is not always available, especially in developing countries. The cloud-based geospatial analysis platform such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) provides an opportunity with accessibility and computational power for those countries to generate the built-up data. Therefore, this study aims to extract the built-up areas in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), Thailand using day and nighttime satellite imagery based on GEE facilities. The normalized indices were generated from Landsat 8 surface reflectance dataset, including Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Built-up Index (BUI), and Modified Built-up Index (MBUI). These indices were applied to identify built-up areas in EEC. The result shows that MBUI performs better than BUI and NDBI, with the highest accuracy of 0.85 and Kappa of 0.82. Moreover, the overall accuracy of classification was improved from 79% to 90%, and error of total built-up area was decreased from 29% to 0.7%, after night-time light data from the Visible and Infrared Imaging Suite (VIIRS) Day Night Band (DNB). The results suggest that MBUI with night-time light imagery is appropriate for built-up area extraction and be utilize for further study of socioeconomic impacts of regional development policy over the EEC region.

Keywords: built-up area extraction, google earth engine, adaptive thresholding method, rapid mapping

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13968 Orbital Tuning of Marl-Limestone Alternations (Upper Tithonian to Upper Berriasian) in North-South Axis (Tunisia): Geochronology and Sequence Implications

Authors: Hamdi Omar Omar, Hela Fakhfakh, Chokri Yaich

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This work reflects the integration of different techniques, such as field sampling and observations, magnetic susceptibility measurement, cyclostratigaraphy and sequence stratigraphy. The combination of these results allows us to reconstruct the environmental evolution of the Sidi Khalif Formation in the North-South Axis (NOSA), aged of Upper Tithonian, Berriasian and Lower Valanginian. Six sedimentary facies were identified and are primarily influenced by open marine sedimentation receiving increasing terrigenous influx. Spectral analysis, based on MS variation (for the outcropped section) and wireline logging gamma ray (GR) variation (for the sub-area section) show a pervasive dominance of 405-kyr eccentricity cycles with the expression of 100-kyr eccentricity, obliquity and precession. This study provides (for the first time) a precise duration of 2.4 myr for the outcropped Sidi Khalif Formation with a sedimentation rate of 5.4 cm/kyr and the sub-area section to 3.24 myr with a sedimentation rate of 7.64 cm/kyr. We outlined 27 5th-order depositional sequences, 8 Milankovitch depositional sequences and 2 major 3rd-order cycles for the outcropping section, controlled by the long eccentricity (405 kyr) cycles and the precession index cycles. This study has demonstrated the potential of MS and GR to be used as proxies to develop an astronomically calibrated time-scale for the Mesozoic era.

Keywords: Berriasian, magnetic susceptibility, orbital tuning, Sidi Khalif Formation

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13967 Shocks and Flows - Employing a Difference-In-Difference Setup to Assess How Conflicts and Other Grievances Affect the Gender and Age Composition of Refugee Flows towards Europe

Authors: Christian Bruss, Simona Gamba, Davide Azzolini, Federico Podestà

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In this paper, the authors assess the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the size and on the age and gender composition of asylum-related migration flows to Europe. With this paper, the authors contribute to the literature by looking at the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the gender and age composition of migration flows in addition to the size of these flows. Conflicting theories predict different outcomes concerning the relationship between political and environmental shocks and the migration flows composition. Analyzing the relationship between the causes of migration and the composition of migration flows could yield more insights into the mechanisms behind migration decisions. In addition, this research may contribute to better informing national authorities in charge of receiving these migrant, as women and children/the elderly require different assistance than young men. To be prepared to offer the correct services, the relevant institutions have to be aware of changes in composition based on the shock in question. The authors analyze the effect of different types of shocks on the number, the gender and age composition of first time asylum seekers originating from 154 sending countries. Among the political shocks, the authors consider: violence between combatants, violence against civilians, infringement of political rights and civil liberties, and state terror. Concerning environmental shocks, natural disasters (such as droughts, floods, epidemics, etc.) have been included. The data on asylum seekers applying to any of the 32 Schengen Area countries between 2008 and 2015 is on a monthly basis. Data on asylum applications come from Eurostat, data on shocks are retrieved from various sources: georeferenced conflict data come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), data on natural disasters from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), data on civil liberties and political rights from Freedom House, data on state terror from the Political Terror Scale (PTS), GDP and population data from the World Bank, and georeferenced population data from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The authors adopt a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, exploiting the different timing of several kinds of shocks across countries. The highly skewed distribution of the dependent variable is taken into account by using count data models. In particular, a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial model is adopted. Preliminary results show that different shocks - such as armed conflict and epidemics - exert weak immediate effects on asylum-related migration flows and almost non-existent effects on the gender and age composition. However, this result is certainly affected by the fact that no time lags have been introduced so far. Finding the correct time lags depends on a great many variables not limited to distance alone. Therefore, finding the appropriate time lags is still a work in progress. Considering the ongoing refugee crisis, this topic is more important than ever. The authors hope that this research contributes to a less emotionally led debate.

Keywords: age, asylum, Europe, forced migration, gender

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