Search results for: rank estimates

Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

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The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

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Authors: Sara Hasani

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This research focuses on natural sudden onset disasters characterised as ‘occurring with little or no warning and often cause excessive injuries far surpassing the national response capacities’. Based on the panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2015, a predictive method was developed to predict the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with less than 3% of errors. The geographical dispersion of the disasters includes every country where the data were available and cross-examined from various humanitarian sources. The records were then filtered into 4252 records of the disasters where the five predictive variables (disaster type, HDI, DRI, population, and population density) were clearly stated. The procedure was designed based on a combination of pattern recognition techniques and rule-based clustering for prediction and discrimination analysis to validate the results further. The result indicates that there is a relationship between the disaster human impact and the five socio-economic characteristics of the affected country mentioned above. As a result, a framework was put forward, which could predict the disaster’s human impact based on their severity rank in the early hours of disaster strike. The predictions in this model were outlined in two worst and best-case scenarios, which respectively inform the lower range and higher range of the prediction. A necessity to develop the predictive framework can be highlighted by noticing that despite the existing research in literature, a framework for predicting the human impact and estimating the needs at the time of the disaster is yet to be developed. This can further be used to allocate the resources at the response phase of the disaster where the data is scarce.

Keywords: disaster management, natural disaster, pattern recognition, prediction

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Authors: Chanada Aonsri, Wichai Eungpinichpong

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Stereotypical behavior is one of the learning and social skills development problems that affect children with autism. Previous studies found that traditional Thai massage (TTM) could reduce stereotypical behaviors in autistic children. However, the effects of TTM delivered by the parents of autistic children have not been explored. This pilot study investigated the effects of TTM by parents on stereotypical behaviors in children with autism. A one-group pretest-posttest design was applied for 15 children, aged 4-16 years, with their parents' permissions. They participated in the study at the Special Education program of the Special Education Center of Khon Kaen University, Thailand. After being trained in a specialized TTM for children, the parents delivered 50-minute TTM to children once a day, twice a week for eight weeks. The severity of autism and autistic behaviors were measured using the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS), and the Autism Treatment Evaluation Checklist (ATEC), respectively. The functions of autonomic nervous systems were measured using Heart Rate Variability (HRV) to indicated physical and mental disorders such as stress. The data at baseline and the 8th week were analyzed using either an independent t-test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The study found that 16 sessions of TTM significantly improved measured data for autism in all children including the CARS (p<0.001), ATEC, speech/language/communication (p<0.001), sociability (p<0.001), sensory/cognitive awareness (p<0.001), health/physical/behavior (p < 0.001), and HRV (p<0.001). The results indicated that TTM performed by parents could be useful as an adjunct therapy for autistic children as it can reduce stereotypical behaviors and stress.

Keywords: traditional Thai massage, stereotypical behaviors, Autistic children, parent

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Authors: Anne Camille P. Balabag, Via B. Cabarda, Ruffa Mae Lomboy, Aira Joyce Nesus

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Nowadays, Filipinos seem to dominate the outsourcing industry, one factor that affects quality service is organization mismanagement. Traditionally, Filipino promotions are based on tenure rather than competence. Seniority refers to a superior rank that an employee holds in an industrial setting based on a position withheld in a company. Yet, seniority also holds the paradigm for Filipino family structures. With this, the researchers believe that Filipinos have a deeper take on seniority, which became the motivation for this study. The researchers wanted to contextualize the Filipino concept of seniority, the perception, and reactions of Filipino employees to its existence, and uncover their relevant experiences within the industrial setting. Following a phenomenological research design, data collected from ten (10) participants with various demographic backgrounds, chosen through purposive sampling, and interviewed utilizing a semi-structured interview and analyzed using thematic analysis revealed seven primary themes: (1) Reality of Tenureship and Competence, (2) Disparity in Age Influence, (3) Special Power of Seniority, (4) Seniority is Necessity, (5) The Filipino Organizational Values, (6) Art of Seniority in Human Resource, and (7) Confessions of the Inner Child. The findings suggest that seniority exists based on a ranking system created through human resource management and mirrored from traditional Filipino values. Also, the researchers identified three Filipino industrial values: respect, pakikipagkapwa-tao (treating others as a fellow human being), and utang na loob (debt of gratitude). Lastly, birth order was found to have direct and indirect effects on their conduct in an industrial context.

Keywords: organizational psychology, human resource management, filipino psychology, industrial values

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

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Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification

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Authors: Goutom K. Pall

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At the very heart of the power system, power transmission (PT) acts as an essential link between power generation and distribution. Timely completion of PT infrastructures is therefore crucial to support the development of power system as a whole. Yet despite the importance, studies on PT infrastructure development projects are embryonic and, hence, PT projects undergoing widespread delays worldwide. These delay factors are idiosyncratic and identifying the critical delay factors is essential if the PT industry professionals are to complete their projects efficiently and within the expected timeframes. This study identifies and categorizes 46 causes of PT project delay under ten major groups using six sector expert’s recommendations studied by a preliminary questionnaire survey. Based on the experts’ strong recommendations, two new groups are introduced in the final questionnaire survey: sector specific factors (SSF) and general factors (GF). SSF pertain to delay factors applicable only to the PT projects, while GF represents less biased samples with shared responsibilities of all project parties involved in a project. The study then uses 112 data samples from the contractors to rank the delay factors using relative importance index (RII). The results reveal that SSF, GF and external factors are the most critical groups, while the highest ranked delay factors include the right of way (RoW) problems of transmission lines (TL), delay in payments, frequent changes in TL routes, poor communication and coordination among the project parties and accessibility to TL tower locations. Finally, recommendations are made to minimize the identified delay. The findings are expected to be of substantial benefit to professionals in minimizing time overrun in PT projects implementation, as well as power generation, power distribution, and non-power linear construction projects worldwide.

Keywords: delay, project delay, power transmission projects, time-overruns

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Roya Moradifar, Bijan Honarvar, Masoumeh Zabihi

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The personal residential camps of South Pars gas complex are one of the few places where electric energy is used for the bath water heating. The widespread use of these devices is mainly responsible for the high peak of the electricity demand in the residential sector. In an attempt to deal with this issue, to reduce the electricity usage of the hot water, as an option, solar hot water systems have been proposed. However, despite the high incidence of solar radiation on the Assaloyeh about 20 MJ/m²/day, currently, there is no technical assessment quantifying the economic benefits on the region. The present study estimates the economic impacts resulting by the deployment of solar hot water systems in residential camp. Hence, the feasibility study allows assessing the potential of solar water heating as an alternative to reduce the peak on the electricity demand. In order to examine the potential of using solar energy in Bidkhoon residential camp two solar water heater packages as pilots were installed for restaurant and building. Restaurant package was damaged due to maintenance problems, but for the building package, we achieved the result of the solar fraction total 83percent and max energy saving 2895 kWh, the maximum reduction in CO₂ emissions calculated as 1634.5 kg. The results of this study can be used as a support tool to spread the use solar water heaters and create policies for South Pars Gas Complex.

Keywords: electrical energy, hot water, solar, South Pars Gas complex

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Authors: P. Praveen Kumar, P. Vimal Prabhu, Renu John

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In biology most microscopy specimens, in particular living cells are transparent. In cell imaging, it is hard to create an image of a cell which is transparent with a very small refractive index change with respect to the surrounding media. Various techniques like addition of staining and contrast agents, markers have been applied in the past for creating contrast. Many of the staining agents or markers are not applicable to live cell imaging as they are toxic. In this paper, we report theoretical and experimental results from quantitative phase imaging of yeast cells with a commercial bright field microscope. We reconstruct the phase of cells non-interferometrically based on the transport of intensity equations (TIE). This technique estimates the axial derivative from positive through-focus intensity measurements. This technique allows phase imaging using a regular microscope with white light illumination. We demonstrate nano-metric depth sensitivity in imaging live yeast cells using this technique. Experimental results will be shown in the paper demonstrating the capability of the technique in 3-D volume estimation of living cells. This real-time imaging technique would be highly promising in real-time digital pathology applications, screening of pathogens and staging of diseases like malaria as it does not need any pre-processing of samples.

Keywords: axial derivative, non-interferometric imaging, quantitative phase imaging, transport of intensity equation

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Authors: Sylvain Amailland, Jean-Hugh Thomas, Charles Pézerat, Romuald Boucheron, Jean-Claude Pascal

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The noise requirements for naval and research vessels have seen an increasing demand for quieter ships in order to fulfil current regulations and to reduce the effects on marine life. Hence, new methods dedicated to the characterization of propeller noise, which is the main source of noise in the far-field, are needed. The study of cavitating propellers in closed-section is interesting for analyzing hydrodynamic performance but could involve significant difficulties for hydroacoustic study, especially due to reverberation and boundary layer noise in the tunnel. The aim of this paper is to present a numerical methodology for the identification of hydroacoustic sources on marine propellers using hydrophone arrays in a large hydrodynamic tunnel. The main difficulties are linked to the reverberation of the tunnel and the boundary layer noise that strongly reduce the signal-to-noise ratio. In this paper it is proposed to estimate the reflection coefficients using an inverse method and some reference transfer functions measured in the tunnel. This approach allows to reduce the uncertainties of the propagation model used in the inverse problem. In order to reduce the boundary layer noise, a cleaning algorithm taking advantage of the low rank and sparse structure of the cross-spectrum matrices of the acoustic and the boundary layer noise is presented. This approach allows to recover the acoustic signal even well under the boundary layer noise. The improvement brought by this method is visible on acoustic maps resulting from beamforming and DAMAS algorithms.

Keywords: acoustic imaging, boundary layer noise denoising, inverse problems, model adaptation

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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The practical efficient approach is suggested to estimate the high-speed objects instant bounds in C-OTDR monitoring systems. In case of super-dynamic objects (trains, cars) is difficult to obtain the adequate estimate of the instantaneous object localization because of estimation lag. In other words, reliable estimation coordinates of monitored object requires taking some time for data observation collection by means of C-OTDR system, and only if the required sample volume will be collected the final decision could be issued. But it is contrary to requirements of many real applications. For example, in rail traffic management systems we need to get data off the dynamic objects localization in real time. The way to solve this problem is to use the set of statistical independent parameters of C-OTDR signals for obtaining the most reliable solution in real time. The parameters of this type we can call as 'signaling parameters' (SP). There are several the SP’s which carry information about dynamic objects instant localization for each of C-OTDR channels. The problem is that some of these parameters are very sensitive to dynamics of seismoacoustic emission sources but are non-stable. On the other hand, in case the SP is very stable it becomes insensitive as a rule. This report contains describing the method for SP’s co-processing which is designed to get the most effective dynamic objects localization estimates in the C-OTDR monitoring system framework.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, co-processing of signaling parameters, high-speed objects localization, multichannel monitoring systems

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Authors: Rahman Ali, Muhammad Sajjad, Farkhund Iqbal, Muhammad Sadiq Hassan Zada, Mohammed Hussain

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Emission of Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) has adversely affected the environment. One of the major sources of CO₂ emission is transportation. In the last few decades, the increase in mobility of people using vehicles has enormously increased the emission of CO₂ in the environment. To reduce CO₂ emission, sustainable transportation system is required in which smart parking is one of the important measures that need to be established. To contribute to the issue of reducing the amount of CO₂ emission, this research proposes a smart parking system. A cloud-based solution is provided to the drivers which automatically searches and recommends the most preferred parking slots. To determine preferences of the parking areas, this methodology exploits a number of unique parking features which ultimately results in the selection of a parking that leads to minimum level of CO₂ emission from the current position of the vehicle. To realize the methodology, a scenario-based implementation is considered. During the implementation, a mobile application with GPS signals, vehicles with a number of vehicle features and a list of parking areas with parking features are used by sorting, multi-level filtering, exploratory data analysis (EDA, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)) and weighted sum model (WSM) to rank the parking areas and recommend the drivers with top-k most preferred parking areas. In the EDA process, “2020testcar-2020-03-03”, a freely available dataset is used to estimate CO₂ emission of a particular vehicle. To evaluate the system, results of the proposed system are compared with the conventional approach, which reveal that the proposed methodology supersedes the conventional one in reducing the emission of CO₂ into the atmosphere.

Keywords: car parking, Co2, Co2 reduction, IoT, merge sort, number plate recognition, smart car parking

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Authors: Zita Fomukong Andam

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With a general objective of evaluating the importance and Performance attributes of Volunteer Tourism in Ethiopia and also specifically intending to rank out the importance to evaluate the competitive performance of Ethiopia to host volunteer tourists, laying them in a four quadrant grid and conduct the IPA Iso-Priority Line comparison of Volunteer Tourism in Ethiopia. From hosts and guests point of view, a deeper research discourse was conducted with a randomly selected 384 guests and 165 hosts in Ethiopia. Findings of the discourse through an exploratory research design on both the hosts and the guests confirm that attributes of volunteer tourism generally and marginally fall in the South East quadrant of the matrix where their importance is relatively higher than their performance counterpart, also referred as ‘Concentrate Here’ quadrant. The fact that there are more items in this particular place in both the host and guest study, where they are highly important, but their relative performance is low, strikes a message that the country has more to do. Another focus point of this study is mapping the scores of attributes regarding the guest and host importance and performance against the Iso-Priority Line. Results of Iso-Priority Line Analysis of the IPA of Volunteer Tourism in Ethiopia from the Host’s Perspective showed that there are no attributes where their importance is exactly the same as their performance. With this being found, the fact that this research design inhabits many characters of exploratory nature, it is not confirmed research output. This paper reserves from prescribing anything to the applied world before further confirmatory research is conducted on the issue and rather calls the scientific community to augment this study through comprehensive, exhaustive, extensive and extended works of inquiry in order to get a refined set of recommended items to the applied world.

Keywords: volunteer tourism, competitive performance importance-performance analysis, Ethiopian tourism

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Authors: Bárbara Durão, Pedro Almeida, David Ramilo, André Meneses, Rute Canejo-Teixeira

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The importance of quality of life (QoL) assessment in veterinary medicine is an integral part of patient care. This is especially true in cases of chronic diseases, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), where the ever more advanced treatment options prolong the patient’s life. Whether this prolongment of life comes with an acceptable quality of life remains has been called into question. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between CKD disease biomarkers and QoL in cats. Thirty-seven cats diagnosed with CKD and with no known concurrent illness were enrolled in an observational study. Through the course of several evaluations, renal biomarkers were assessed in blood and urine samples, and owners retrospectively described their cat’s quality of life using a validated instrument for this disease. Correlations between QoL scores (AWIS) and the biomarkers were assessed using Spearman’s rank test. Statistical significance was set at p-value < 0.05, and every serial sample was considered independent. Thirty-seven cats met the inclusion criteria, and all owners completed the questionnaire every time their pet was evaluated, giving a total of eighty-four questionnaires, and the average-weighted-impact-score was –0.5. Results showed there was a statistically significant correlation between the quality of life and most of 17 the studied biomarkers and confirmed that CKD has a negative impact on QoL in cats especially due to the management of the disease and secondary appetite disorders. To our knowledge, this is the attempt to assess the correlation between renal biomarkers and QoL in cats. Our results reveal a strong potential of this type of approach in clinical management, mainly in situations where it is not possible to measure biomarkers. Whilst health-related QoL is a reliable predictor of mortality and morbidity in humans; our findings can help improve the clinical practice in cats with CKD.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, biomarkers, quality of life, feline

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Authors: Oscar Covarrubias, Diane Ghanem, Christopher Murdock, Babar Shafiq

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Introduction: ChatGPT is an advanced language AI tool designed to understand and generate human-like text. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of ChatGPT-4 to re-write orthopaedic trauma patient education materials at the recommended 6th-grade level. Methods: Two independent reviewers accessed ChatGPT-4 (chat.openai.com) and gave identical instructions to simplify the readability of provided text to a 6th-grade level. All trauma-related articles by the Orthopaedic Trauma Association (OTA) and American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) were sequentially provided. The academic grade level was determined using the Flesh-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL) and Flesch Reading Ease (FRE). Paired t-tests and Wilcox-rank sum tests were used to compare the FKGL and FRE between the ChatGPT-4 revised and original text. Inter-rater correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess variability in ChatGPT-4 generated text between the two reviewers. Results: ChatGPT-4 significantly reduced FKGL and increased FRE scores in the OTA (FKGL: 5.7±0.5 compared to the original 8.2±1.1, FRE: 76.4±5.7 compared to the original 65.5±6.6, p < 0.001) and AAOS articles (FKGL: 5.8±0.8 compared to the original 8.9±0.8, FRE: 76±5.5 compared to the original 56.7±5.9, p < 0.001). On average, 14.6% of OTA and 28.6% of AAOS articles required at least two revisions by ChatGPT-4 to achieve a 6th-grade reading level. ICC demonstrated poor reliability for FKGL (OTA 0.24, AAOS 0.45) and moderate reliability for FRE (OTA 0.61, AAOS 0.73). Conclusion: This study provides a novel, simple and efficient method using language AI to optimize the readability of patient education content which may only require the surgeon’s final proofreading. This method would likely be as effective for other medical specialties.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, AI, chatGPT, patient education, readability, trauma education

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Authors: Taehyun Kim

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As a result of rapid urbanization, energy demands for lighting, heating and cooling of households have been concentrated in metropolitan areas. The energy resources for housing in urban areas are dominantly fossil fuel whose uses contribute to increase cost of living and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. To achieve environmentally and economically sustainable residential development, it is important to know how energy use and cost of living can be reduced by planning and design. The purpose of this study is to examine which type of building requires less energy for housing. To do so, carbon footprint (CF) quiz survey was employed which estimates the amount of carbon dioxide required to support households’ consumption of energy uses for housing. The housing carbon footprints (HCF) of 500 households of Seoul, Korea in summer and winter were estimated and compared in three major types of housing: single-family (detached), row-house and apartment. In addition, its differences of HCF were estimated between tower and flat type of apartment. The results of T-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) provide statistical evidence that housing type is related to housing energy use. Average HCF of detached house was higher than other housing types. Between two types of apartment, tower type shows higher HCF than flat type in winter. These findings may provide new perspectives on CF application in sustainable architecture and urban design.

Keywords: analysis of variance, carbon footprint, energy use, housing type

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Authors: M. Bonopera, N. Tullini, C. C. Chen, T. K. Lin, K. C. Chang

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This paper presents the extension of a static method for the axial load identifications in prismatic beam-columns with uncertain length and unknown boundary conditions belonging to generic space structures, such as columns of space frames or struts and ties of space trusses. The non-destructive method requires the knowledge of the beam-column flexural rigidity only. Flexural displacements are measured at five cross sections along the beam-column subjected to an additional vertical load at the mid-span. Unlike analogous dynamic methods, any set of experimental data may be used in the identification procedure. The method is verified by means of many numerical and experimental tests on beam-columns having unknown boundary conditions and different slenderness belonging to three different space prototypes in small-scale. Excellent estimates of the tensile and compressive forces are obtained for the elements with higher slenderness and when the greatest possible distance between sensors is adopted. Moreover, the application of larger values of the vertical load and very accurate displacement measurements are required. The method could be an efficacious technique in-situ, considering that safety inspections will become increasingly important in the near future, especially because of the improvement of the material properties that allowed designing space structures composed of beam-columns with higher slenderness.

Keywords: force identification, in-situ test, space structure, static test

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Authors: Ikenna Charles Onyema, Tolut Prince Bako

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A study was carried out in the Atlantic Ocean off the Lighthouse Beach, Lagos. There were monthly and spatial variations in physical and chemical characteristics of the neritic ocean (August - December, 2014). Mean and standard deviation values for air temperature were 27. 67, ± 2.98 °C, water temperature (28.37 ± 1.88), pH (7.85 ± 0.17), conductivity (44738.75 ± 6262.76 µS/cm), total dissolved solids (29236.71 ± 4273.30 mg/L), salinity (27.11 ± 3.91 ‰), alkalinity (126.99 ± 42.81 mg/L) and chloride (15056. 67 ± 2165.78 mg/L). Higher estimates were recorded in the dry than wet months for these characteristics. On the other hand, reducing values were recorded for acidity (2.34 ± 0.63 mg/L), total hardness (4711.98 ± 691.50 mg/L), phosphate (1.1 ± 0.78 mg/L), sulphate (2601.99 ± 447.04 mg/L) and nitrate (0.12 ± 0.06 mg/L). Values for total suspended solids and biological oxygen demand values were low (<1mg/L). Twenty-one species of phytoplankton were recorded. Diatoms recorded 80.92% and were the dominant group. Hemidiscus cuneiformis, Coscinodiscus centralis, Coscinodiscus lineatus, Coscinodiscus radiatus and Oscillatoria limosa were more frequently occurring species. Biddulphia sinensis and four species of Ceratium, were representatives of the dry season. The dry season also recorded comparatively higher individuals of phytoplankton than the wet season. Spirogyra sp. (green algae) appeared only in the wet season. Species abundance (N) was highest in December at Station 1 (13.15%) (dry season) and lowest in August (wet season) at Station 3 (2.96%). The physico-chemical factors and phytoplankton reflected a tropical unpolluted neritic oceanic environment.

Keywords: sea, physico-chemistry, lighthouse beach, microalgae

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Authors: Hesham Abdin, Mohamed Zakaria, Talaat Abd-Elmonaem, Alaa El-Din Sayed Hafez

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Kalman filter algorithm is an estimator known as the workhorse of estimation. It has an important application in missile guidance, especially in lack of accurate data of the target due to noise or uncertainty. In this paper, a Kalman filter is used as a tracking filter in a simulated target-interceptor scenario with noise. It estimates the position, velocity, and acceleration of the target in the presence of noise. These estimations are needed for both proportional navigation and differential geometry guidance laws. A Kalman filter has a good performance at low noise, but a large noise causes considerable errors leads to performance degradation. Therefore, a new technique is required to overcome this defect using tuning factors to tune a Kalman filter to adapt increasing of noise. The values of the tuning factors are between 0.8 and 1.2, they have a specific value for the first half of range and a different value for the second half. they are multiplied by the estimated values. These factors have its optimum values and are altered with the change of the target heading. A genetic algorithm updates these selections to increase the maximum effective range which was previously reduced by noise. The results show that the selected factors have other benefits such as decreasing the minimum effective range that was increased earlier due to noise. In addition to, the selected factors decrease the miss distance for all ranges of this direction of the target, and expand the effective range which leads to increase probability of kill.

Keywords: proportional navigation, differential geometry, Kalman filter, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Vadim A. Kuznetsov, Anna M. Soldatova, Tatyana N. Enina, Elena A. Gorbatenko, Dmitrii V. Krinochkin

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to evaluate potential parameters related with super-response to CRT. Methods: 60 CRT patients (mean age 54.3 ± 9.8 years; 80% men) with congestive heart failure (CHF) II-IV NYHA functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction < 35% were enrolled. At baseline, 1 month, 3 months and each 6 months after implantation clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters, NT-proBNP level were evaluated. According to the best decrease of left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) (mean follow-up period 33.7 ± 15.1 months) patients were classified as super-responders (SR) (n=28; reduction in LVESV ≥ 30%) and non-SR (n=32; reduction in LVESV < 30%). Results: At baseline groups differed in age (58.1 ± 5.8 years in SR vs 50.8 ± 11.4 years in non-SR; p=0.003), gender (female gender 32.1% vs 9.4% respectively; p=0.028), width of QRS complex (157.6 ± 40.6 ms in SR vs 137.6 ± 33.9 ms in non-SR; p=0.044). Percentage of LBBB was equal between groups (75% in SR vs 59.4% in non-SR; p=0.274). All parameters of mechanical dyssynchrony were higher in SR, but only difference in left ventricular pre-ejection period (LVPEP) was statistically significant (153.0 ± 35.9 ms vs. 129.3 ± 28.7 ms p=0.032). NT-proBNP level was lower in SR (1581 ± 1369 pg/ml vs 3024 ± 2431 pg/ml; p=0.006). The survival rates were 100% in SR and 90.6% in non-SR (log-rank test P=0.002). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that LVPEP (HR 1.024; 95% CI 1.004–1.044; P = 0.017), baseline NT-proBNP level (HR 0.628; 95% CI 0.414–0.953; P=0.029) and age at baseline (HR 1.094; 95% CI 1.009-1.168; P=0.30) were independent predictors for CRT super-response. ROC curve analysis demonstrated sensitivity 71.9% and specificity 82.1% (AUC=0.827; p < 0.001) of this model in prediction of super-response to CRT. Conclusion: Super-response to CRT is associated with better survival in long-term period. Presence of LBBB was not associated with super-response. LVPEP, NT-proBNP level, and age at baseline can be used as independent predictors of CRT super-response.

Keywords: cardiac resynchronisation therapy, superresponse, congestive heart failure, left bundle branch block

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Authors: Abeer K. Jameel, Harry Evdorides

Abstract:

The Assessment of the road safety performance is a challengeable issue. This is not only because of the ineffective and unreliability of road and traffic crash data system but also because of its systematic character. Recent strategic plans and interventions implemented in some of the developed countries where a significant decline in the rate of traffic and road crashes considers that the road safety is a system. This system consists of four main elements which are: road user, road infrastructure, vehicles and speed in addition to other supporting elements such as the institutional framework and post-crash care system. To assess the performance of a system, it is required to assess all its elements. To present an understandable results of the assessment, it is required to present a unique term representing the performance of the overall system. This paper aims to develop an overall performance indicator which may be used to assess the road safety system. The variables of this indicators are the main elements of the road safety system. The data regarding these variables will be collected from the World Health Organization report. Multi-criteria analysis method is used to aggregate the four sub-indicators for the four variables. Two weighting methods will be assumed, equal weights and different weights. For the different weights method, the factor analysis method is used. The weights then will be converting to scores. The total score will be the overall indicator for the road safety performance in a national scale. This indicator will be used to compare and rank countries according to their road safety performance indicator. The country with the higher score is the country which provides most sustainable and effective interventions for successful road safety system. These indicator will be tested by comparing them with the aggregate real crash rate for each country.

Keywords: factor analysis, Multi-criteria analysis, road safety assessment, safe system indicator

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Authors: Dwitya Elvira, Eryati Darwin

Abstract:

Background: Graves’ disease (GD) is an autoimmune thyroid disease. Imbalance of Th1/Th2 cells and T-regulatory (Treg)/Th17 cells was thought to play pivotal role in the pathogenesis of GD. Treg FoxP3 produced TGF-β to maintain regulatory function, and Th17 cells produced IL-17 as cytokines that were thought in mediating several autoimmune diseases. The aim of this study is to assess the role of IL-17 and TGF-β in the pathogenesis of GD and to investigate its correlation with Thyroid Stimulating Hormone Receptor Antibody (TRAb) and Treg FoxP3 expression. Method: 30 GD patients and 27 age and sex-matched controls were enrolled in this study. Diagnosis of GD was based on clinical and biochemical of GD. Serum IL-17, TGF-β, TRAb, and FoxP3 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Data were analyzed by using SPSS 21.0 (SPSS Inc.). Spearman rank correlation test was used for assessment of correlation. The statistical significance was accepted as P<0.05. Result: There was no significant correlation between IL-17 and TGF-β serum with expression of FoxP3 level in GD, but there was significant correlation between TGF-β and TRAb serum level (P<0.05). Serum levels of IL-17 and TGF-β were found to be elevated in patient group compared to control, where mean values of IL-17 were 14.43±2.15 pg/mL and TGF-β were 10.44±3.19 pg/mL in patients group; and in control group, level of IL-17 were 7.1±1.45 pg/mL and TGF-β were 4.95±1.35 pg/mL. Conclusion: Serum Il-17 and TGF-β were elevated in GD patients that reflect the role of inflammatory and regulatory cytokines activation in pathogenesis of GD. There was significant correlation between TGF-β and TRAb, revealing that Treg cytokines may play a role in pathogenesis of GD.

Keywords: IL-17, TGF-B, FoxP3, TRAb, Graves’ disease

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Authors: Luis Felipe Brito-Gaona, Emma M. Iglesias

Abstract:

There is a growing literature that studies the main determinants and drivers of inequality and economic growth in several countries, using panel data and different estimation methods (fixed effects, Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Two Stages Least Squares (TSLS)). Recently, it was studied the evolution of these variables in the period 1980-2009 in the 18 countries of Latin-America and it was found that one of the main variables that explained their evolution was Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We extend this study to the year 2015 in the same 18 countries in Latin-America, and we find that FDI does not have a significant role anymore, while we find a significant negative and positive effect of schooling levels on inequality and economic growth respectively. We also find that the point estimates associated with human capital are the largest ones of the variables included in the analysis, and this means that an increase in human capital (measured by schooling levels of secondary education) is the main determinant that can help to reduce inequality and to increase economic growth in Latin-America. Therefore, we advise that economic policies in Latin-America should be directed towards increasing the level of education. We use the methodologies of estimating by fixed effects, GMM and TSLS to check the robustness of our results. Our conclusion is the same regardless of the estimation method we choose. We also find that the international recession in the Latin-American countries in 2008 reduced significantly their economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, human capital, inequality, Latin-America

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Authors: Ikenna Charles Onyema, Prince Tolut Bako

Abstract:

A study was carried out in the Atlantic Ocean off the Lighthouse Beach, Lagos. There were monthly and spatial variations in physical and chemical characteristics of the neritic ocean (August-December, 2014). Mean and standard deviation values for air temperature were 27. 67, ± 2.98 oC, water temperature (28.37 ± 1.88), pH (7.85 ± 0.17), Conductivity (44738.75 ± 6262.76 µS/cm), Total dissolved solids (29236.71 ± 4273.30 mg/L), Salinity (27.11 ± 3.91 ‰), Alkalinity (126.99 ± 42.81 mg/L) and Chloride (15056. 67 ± 2165.78 mg/L). Higher estimates were recorded in the dry than wet months for these characteristics. On the other hand, reducing values were recorded for Acidity (2.34 ± 0.63 mg/L), Total hardness (4711.98 ± 691.50 mg/L), Phosphate (1.1 ± 0.78 mg/L), Sulphate (2601.99 ± 447.04 mg/L) and Nitrate (0.12 ± 0.06 mg/L). Values for Total suspended solids and Biological oxygen demand values were low ( < 1mg/L). Twenty-one species of phytoplankton were recorded. Diatoms recorded 80.92% and were the dominant group. Hemidiscus cuneiformis, Coscinodiscus centralis, Coscinodiscus lineatus, Coscinodiscus radiatus and Oscillatoria limosa were more frequently occurring species. Biddulphia sinensis and four species of Ceratium, were representatives of the dry season. The dry season also recorded comparatively higher individuals of phytoplankton than the wet season. Spirogyra sp. (green algae) appeared only in the wet season. Species abundance (N) was highest in December at Station 1 (13.15%) (dry season) and lowest in August (wet season) at Station 3 (2.96%). The physico-chemical factors and phytoplankton reflected a tropical unpolluted neritic oceanic environment.

Keywords: sea, physico-chemistry, micro-algae, lighthouse beach

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Authors: Adebusoye Michael, Okunola Olayinka, Owolabi Abdulateef, Jacob Anayo

Abstract:

Introduction: Child undernutrition remains one of Africa’s most fundamental challenges for improved human development because the time and capacities of caregivers are limited; far too many children are unable to access effectively amenities they need for a healthy life. Methods and procedures: This cross-sectional, descriptive study evaluated the maternal care practices on nutritional status of pre-school children, 150 mothers were selected by systematic random sampling in Dass L.G.A., Bauchi-State, Nigeria. Information on relevant parameters were collected by questionaire, analysed by various indices of descriptive statistics using SPSS version 16.0.Spearman’s rank correlation was used to test for associations between the variables. Results: Thirty-five (23.3%) of the respondents were aged 21-25 years. Thirty-three (28.0%) had secondary education, while forty-nine (32.7%) were full housewives. Majority 79(52.7) earned NI,000- N10,000 monthly versus 10(6.7%) who earned N11,000- N20,000.113(75.3%) married while 7(4.7%) of respondents were separated. Sixty-one (40.7%) practiced exclusive breastfeeding within six months. Only seventy-one (47.3%) initiated breastfeeding between 7 and 13 months. Five (3.3%) of children were mildly underweight while nine (6.0%) were severely stunted. Conclusion: The outcome suggested that working time of mothers is a major determinant on their child nutritional status. However, there is a significant relationship on the working time of mothers, income level and educational level of mothers to the nutritional status of their children (P<0.05). Recommendation: Good policy programmes should aim at eradicating poverty, better child care practices that would reduce malnutrition among under-five children.

Keywords: maternal care, nutritional status, preschool children, Dass L.G.A.

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Authors: Evrim Buyukaslan, Simona Jevsnik, Fatma Kalaoglu

Abstract:

Simulation of fabrics is more difficult than any other simulation due to complex mechanics of fabrics. Most of the virtual garment simulation software use mass-spring model and incorporate fabric mechanics into simulation models. The accuracy and fidelity of these virtual garment simulation software is a question mark. Drape is a subjective phenomenon and evaluation of drape has been studied since 1950’s. On the other hand, fabric and garment simulation is relatively new. Understanding drape perception of subjects when looking at fabric simulations is critical as virtual try-on becomes more of an issue by enhanced online apparel sales. Projected future of online apparel retailing is that users may view their avatars and try-on the garment on their avatars in the virtual environment. It is a well-known fact that users will not be eager to accept this innovative technology unless it is realistic enough. Therefore, it is essential to understand what users see when they are displaying fabrics in a virtual environment. Are they able to distinguish the differences between various fabrics in virtual environment? The purpose of this study is to investigate human perception when looking at a virtual fabric and determine the most visually noticeable drape parameter. To this end, five different fabrics are mechanically tested, and their drape simulations are generated by commercial garment simulation software (Optitex®). The simulation images are processed by an image analysis software to calculate drape parameters namely; drape coefficient, node severity, and peak angles. A questionnaire is developed to evaluate drape properties subjectively in a virtual environment. Drape simulation images are shown to 27 subjects and asked to rank the samples according to their questioned drape property. The answers are compared to the calculated drape parameters. The results show that subjects are quite sensitive to drape coefficient changes while they are not very sensitive to changes in node dimensions and node distributions.

Keywords: drape simulation, drape evaluation, fabric mechanics, virtual fabric

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Authors: Urvi Shah, Anmol Jain

Abstract:

The talks of a New Global Order have been doing rounds since the advent of 21st century. Similar change in global scenario was witnessed when the Bretton Woods System came up post the World War II. The changing world order has been analyzed by using the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates. The PPP and Nominal GDP methods show the purchasing power and financial background of the countries respectively, which helps in knowing both real and nominal financial strength of the country. Today, the rising powers of BRICS are posing new challenges to the world order shaped by the West. BRICS, i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, countries have at various instances represented the interests of developing countries at world forums. The pooled population of these nations accounts for 41.6% of the total world population which gives a very resilient idea of the workforce or human resources which is mobilized by them. They have a combined GDP (PPP) of around 30.57% of the total world GDP (PPP). The paper tries to analyze the prospects and impact of the New Development Bank (NDB) formerly known as the BRICS Bank, on world economy, which has the potential to act as a rival to West dominated IMF and World Bank. The paper studies the paradigm shift in the global order, impact of the NDB on third world nations and the developed nations. The study concluded that the relative positions of BRICS countries in the world economy are changing, irrespective of the measurement methodology being US$ or the PPP model.

Keywords: BRICS, New Development Bank, Nominal GDP, purchasing power parity

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