Search results for: financial instability
2756 Enhancing Financial Security: Real-Time Anomaly Detection in Financial Transactions Using Machine Learning
Authors: Ali Kazemi
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The digital evolution of financial services, while offering unprecedented convenience and accessibility, has also escalated the vulnerabilities to fraudulent activities. In this study, we introduce a distinct approach to real-time anomaly detection in financial transactions, aiming to fortify the defenses of banking and financial institutions against such threats. Utilizing unsupervised machine learning algorithms, specifically autoencoders and isolation forests, our research focuses on identifying irregular patterns indicative of fraud within transactional data, thus enabling immediate action to prevent financial loss. The data we used in this study included the monetary value of each transaction. This is a crucial feature as fraudulent transactions may have distributions of different amounts than legitimate ones, such as timestamps indicating when transactions occurred. Analyzing transactions' temporal patterns can reveal anomalies (e.g., unusual activity in the middle of the night). Also, the sector or category of the merchant where the transaction occurred, such as retail, groceries, online services, etc. Specific categories may be more prone to fraud. Moreover, the type of payment used (e.g., credit, debit, online payment systems). Different payment methods have varying risk levels associated with fraud. This dataset, anonymized to ensure privacy, reflects a wide array of transactions typical of a global banking institution, ranging from small-scale retail purchases to large wire transfers, embodying the diverse nature of potentially fraudulent activities. By engineering features that capture the essence of transactions, including normalized amounts and encoded categorical variables, we tailor our data to enhance model sensitivity to anomalies. The autoencoder model leverages its reconstruction error mechanism to flag transactions that deviate significantly from the learned normal pattern, while the isolation forest identifies anomalies based on their susceptibility to isolation from the dataset's majority. Our experimental results, validated through techniques such as k-fold cross-validation, are evaluated using precision, recall, and the F1 score alongside the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Our models achieved an F1 score of 0.85 and a ROC AUC of 0.93, indicating high accuracy in detecting fraudulent transactions without excessive false positives. This study contributes to the academic discourse on financial fraud detection and provides a practical framework for banking institutions seeking to implement real-time anomaly detection systems. By demonstrating the effectiveness of unsupervised learning techniques in a real-world context, our research offers a pathway to significantly reduce the incidence of financial fraud, thereby enhancing the security and trustworthiness of digital financial services.Keywords: anomaly detection, financial fraud, machine learning, autoencoders, isolation forest, transactional data analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 482755 Government Final Consumption Expenditure Financial Deepening and Household Consumption Expenditure NPISHs in Nigeria
Authors: Usman A. Usman
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Undeniably, unlike the Classical side, the Keynesian perspective of the aggregate demand side indeed has a significant position in the policy, growth, and welfare of Nigeria due to government involvement and ineffective demand of the population living with poor per capita income. This study seeks to investigate the effect of Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Financial Deepening on Households, and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure using data on Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. This study employed the ADF stationarity test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the study revealed that the coefficient of Government final consumption expenditure has a positive effect on household consumption expenditure in the long run. There is a long-run and short-run relationship between gross fixed capital formation and household consumption expenditure. The coefficients cpsgdp financial deepening and gross fixed capital formation posit a negative impact on household final consumption expenditure. The coefficients money supply lm2gdp, which is another proxy for financial deepening, and the coefficient FDI have a positive effect on household final consumption expenditure in the long run. Therefore, this study recommends that Gross fixed capital formation stimulates household consumption expenditure; a legal framework to support investment is a panacea to increasing hoodmold income and consumption and reducing poverty in Nigeria. Therefore, this should be a key central component of policy.Keywords: household, government expenditures, vector error correction model, johansen test
Procedia PDF Downloads 502754 Risk Management in an Islamic Framework
Authors: Magid Maatallah
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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment
Procedia PDF Downloads 5432753 Neuromuscular Control and Performance during Sudden Acceleration in Subjects with and without Unilateral Acute Ankle Sprains
Authors: M. Qorbani
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Neuromuscular control of posture as understood through studies of responses to mechanical sudden acceleration automatically has been previously demonstrated in individuals with chronic ankle instability (CAI), but the presence of acute condition has not been previously explored specially in a sudden acceleration. The aim of this study was to determine neuromuscular control pattern in those with and without unilateral acute ankle sprains. Design: Case - control. Setting: University research laboratory. The sinker–card protocol with surface translation was be used as a sudden acceleration protocol with study of EMG upon 4 posture stabilizer muscles in two sides of the body in response to sudden acceleration in forward and backward directions. 20 young adult women in two groups (10 LAS; 23.9 ± 2.03 yrs and 10 normal; 26.4 ± 3.2 yrs). The data of EMG were assessed by using multivariate test and one-way repeated measures 2×2×4 ANOVA (P< 0.05). The results showed a significant muscle by direction interaction. Higher TA activity of left and right side in LAS group than normal group in forward direction significantly be showed. Higher MGR activity in normal group than LAS group in backward direction significantly showed. These findings suggest that compared two sides of the body in two directions for 4 muscles EMG activities between and within group for neuromuscular control of posture in avoiding fall. EMG activations of two sides of the body in lateral ankle sprain (LAS) patients were symmetric significantly. Acute ankle instability following once ankle sprains caused to coordinated temporal spatial patterns and strategy selection.Keywords: neuromuscular response, sEMG, lateral ankle sprain, posture.
Procedia PDF Downloads 4762752 Financial Feasibility of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects in India
Authors: Renuka H. Deshmukh, Snehal Nifadkar, Anil P. Dongre
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The research study aims to analyze the financial performance of the companies associated with CDM projects implemented in India from 2001 to 2014 by calculating net profit with and without CDM revenue. Further the study also highlights the Year-wise and sector-wise lending to CDM projects in India as well as in the state of Maharashtra. The study further aims to examine the year-wise trend of Certified Emission Reductions (CER) issued by the CDM projects implemented in Maharashtra from 2001-2014. The study as well analyses the responses of selected corporate with respect to the challenges in implementing and obtaining finance from commercial banks.Keywords: adaptation costs, internal rate of return, mitigation, vulnerability, CER
Procedia PDF Downloads 3412751 Measurement of Intellectual Capital in an Algerian Company
Authors: S. Brahmi, S. Aitouche, M. D. Mouss
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Every modern company should measure the value of its intellectual capital and to report to complement the traditional annual balance sheets. The purpose of this work is to measure the intellectual capital in an Algerian company (or production system) using the Weightless Wealth Tool Kit (WWTK). The results of the measurement of intellectual capital are supplemented by traditional financial ratios. The measurement was applied to the National Company of Wells Services (ENSP) in Hassi Messaoud city, in the south of Algeria. We calculated the intellectual capital (intangible resources) of the ENSP to help the organization to better capitalize on its potential of workers and their know-how. The intangible value of the ENSP is evaluated at 16,936,173,345 DA in 2015.Keywords: financial valuation, intangible capital, intellectual capital, intellectual capital measurement
Procedia PDF Downloads 2792750 Organizational Efficiency in the Age of the Current Financial Crisis Strategies and Tracks Progress
Authors: Aharouay Soumaya
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Efficiency is a relative concept. It is measured by comparing the productivity obtained in what is intended as standard or objective criteria. The quantity and quality of output achieved and the level of service are also compared to targets or standards, to determine to what extent they could cause changes in efficiency. Efficiency improves when more outputs of a specified quality are produced with the same resource inputs or less, or when the same amount of output is produced with fewer resources. This article proposes a review of the literature on strategies adopted by firms in the age of the financial crisis to overcome these negative effects, and tracks progress chosen by the organization to remain successful despite the plight of firms.Keywords: effectiveness, efficiency, organizational capacity, strategy, management tool, progress, performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 3382749 Hope for Technological Entrepreneurship in Developing Countries: Perceived Motivations, Intentions and Decisions in Africa
Authors: Umugwaneza Francoise, Ntamazeze Janviere, Donghong Ding
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Entrepreneurship has been considered by majority people from developing world as “no other option” kind of career. Consequently, for a long time entrepreneurship in developing countries has been mainly practiced by people who have low or not at all formal education. Even today, to some extent, much of the actions taken by governments, donors and some societies have tendency to consider entrepreneurship as an instrument to lift up the most vulnerable population including uneducated women, school drop outers, people with disabilities and other groups who live with some sort of vulnerability. However, there is a shortage of knowledge based and know-how entrepreneurship in developing countries. Although, the entrepreneurship done with formal educated people would contribute indispensably and sustain the development, the low numbers of formal educated people become entrepreneurs in developing countries. Empirically, this paper investigated the influential factors affecting the entrepreneurial motivation, intentions and decision among African scientists and engineers postgraduate from china universities since 1995 to 2014. Results revealed that 39% are entrepreneurs, 43% work for private sectors and 18% work for governments. Only 6% of respondents are in technological entrepreneurship related to their field of graduation. Study location, mentors or research supervisors and life style are the major factors influenced their decisions to become entrepreneurs whereas complex financial systems and political instability pushed some to employments. Interestingly, significant number of entrepreneurs did not have any entrepreneurial intentions. This paper concludes with suggestions to policy makers and investors in order to encouraging technological entrepreneurs which will provide more opportunities, create jobs and improve people’s quality of life.Keywords: technological entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurship decision making, entrepreneurship intentions, formal education
Procedia PDF Downloads 3672748 The Superior Performance of Investment Bank-Affiliated Mutual Funds
Authors: Michelo Obrey
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Traditionally, mutual funds have long been esteemed as stand-alone entities in the U.S. However, the prevalence of the fund families’ affiliation to financial conglomerates is eroding this striking feature. Mutual fund families' affiliation with financial conglomerates can potentially be an important source of superior performance or cost to the affiliated mutual fund investors. On the one hand, financial conglomerates affiliation offers the mutual funds access to abundant resources, better research quality, private material information, and business connections within the financial group. On the other hand, conflict of interest is bound to arise between the financial conglomerate relationship and fund management. Using a sample of U.S. domestic equity mutual funds from 1994 to 2017, this paper examines whether fund family affiliation to an investment bank help the affiliated mutual funds deliver superior performance through private material information advantage possessed by the investment banks or it costs affiliated mutual fund shareholders due to the conflict of interest. Robust to alternative risk adjustments and cross-section regression methodologies, this paper finds that the investment bank-affiliated mutual funds significantly outperform those of the mutual funds that are not affiliated with an investment bank. Interestingly the paper finds that the outperformance is confined to holding return, a return measure that captures the investment talent that is uninfluenced by transaction costs, fees, and other expenses. Further analysis shows that the investment bank-affiliated mutual funds specialize in hard-to-value stocks, which are not more likely to be held by unaffiliated funds. Consistent with the information advantage hypothesis, the paper finds that affiliated funds holding covered stocks outperform affiliated funds without covered stocks lending no support to the hypothesis that affiliated mutual funds attract superior stock-picking talent. Overall, the paper findings are consistent with the idea that investment banks maximize fee income by monopolistically exploiting their private information, thus strategically transferring performance to their affiliated mutual funds. This paper contributes to the extant literature on the agency problem in mutual fund families. It adds to this stream of research by showing that the agency problem is not only prevalent in fund families but also in financial organizations such as investment banks that have affiliated mutual fund families. The results show evidence of exploitation of synergies such as private material information sharing that benefit mutual fund investors due to affiliation with a financial conglomerate. However, this research has a normative dimension, allowing such incestuous behavior of insider trading and exploitation of superior information not only negatively affect the unaffiliated fund investors but also led to an unfair and unleveled playing field in the financial market.Keywords: mutual fund performance, conflicts of interest, informational advantage, investment bank
Procedia PDF Downloads 1802747 Structural Vulnerability of Banking Network – Systemic Risk Approach
Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner
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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 4862746 Statistical Inferences for GQARCH-It\^{o} - Jumps Model Based on The Realized Range Volatility
Authors: Fu Jinyu, Lin Jinguan
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This paper introduces a novel approach that unifies two types of models: one is the continuous-time jump-diffusion used to model high-frequency data, and the other is discrete-time GQARCH employed to model low-frequency financial data by embedding the discrete GQARCH structure with jumps in the instantaneous volatility process. This model is named “GQARCH-It\^{o} -Jumps mode.” We adopt the realized range-based threshold estimation for high-frequency financial data rather than the realized return-based volatility estimators, which entail the loss of intra-day information of the price movement. Meanwhile, a quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GQARCH structure with jumps is developed for the parametric estimate. The asymptotic theories are mainly established for the proposed estimators in the case of finite activity jumps. Moreover, simulation studies are implemented to check the finite sample performance of the proposed methodology. Specifically, it is demonstrated that how our proposed approaches can be practically used on some financial data.Keywords: It\^{o} process, GQARCH, leverage effects, threshold, realized range-based volatility estimator, quasi-maximum likelihood estimate
Procedia PDF Downloads 1462745 Realizing the Full Potential of Islamic Banking System: Proposed Suitable Legal Framework for Islamic Banking System in Tanzania
Authors: Maulana Ayoub Ali, Pradeep Kulshrestha
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Laws of any given secular state have a huge contribution in the growth of the Islamic banking system because the system uses conventional laws to govern its activities. Therefore, the former should be ready to accommodate the latter in order to make the Islamic banking system work properly without affecting the current conventional banking system and therefore without affecting its system. Islamic financial rules have been practiced since the birth of Islam. Following the recent world economic challenges in the financial sector, a quick rebirth of the contemporary Islamic ethical banking system took place. The coming of the Islamic banking system is due to various reasons including but not limited to the failure of the interest based economy in solving financial problems around the globe. Therefore, the Islamic banking system has been adopted as an alternative banking system in order to recover the highly damaged global financial sector. But the Islamic banking system has been facing a number of challenges which hinder its smooth operation in different parts of the world. It has not been the aim of this paper to discuss other challenges rather than the legal ones, but the same was partly discussed when it was justified that it was proper to do so. Generally, there are so many things which have been discovered in the course of writing this paper. The most important part is the issue of the regulatory and supervisory framework for the Islamic banking system in Tanzania and in other nations is considered to be a crucial part for the development of the Islamic banking industry. This paper analyses what has been observed in the study on that area and recommends for necessary actions to be taken on board in a bid to make Islamic banking system reach its climax of serving the larger community by providing ethical, equitable, affordable, interest-free and society cantered banking system around the globe.Keywords: Islamic banking, interest free banking, ethical banking, legal framework
Procedia PDF Downloads 1432744 Financial Assessment of the Hard Coal Mining in the Chosen Region in the Czech Republic: Real Options Methodology Application
Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný
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This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 5422743 Performance Evaluation of Next Generation Shale Stabilizer
Authors: N. K. Thakur
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A major proportion of the formations drilled for the production of hydrocarbons consists of clay containing shales. The petroleum industry has hugely investigated the role of clay minerals and their subsequent effect on wellbore stability during the drilling and production of hydrocarbons. It has been found that when the shale formation comes in contact with water-based drilling fluid, the interaction of clay minerals like montmorillonite with infiltrated water leads to hydration of the clay minerals, which causes shale swelling. When shale swelling proceeds further, it may lead to major drilling complications like caving, pipe sticking, which invariably influences wellbore stability, wellbore diameter, the mechanical strength of shale, stress distribution in the wellbore, etc. These problems ultimately lead to an increase in nonproductive time and additional costs during drilling. Several additives are used to prevent shale instability. Among the popular additives used for shale inhibition in drilling muds, ionic liquids and nanoparticles are emerging to be the best additives. The efficiency of the proposed additives will be studied and compared with conventional clay inhibitors like KCl. The main objective is to develop a highly efficient water-based mud for mitigating shale instability and reducing fluid loss which is environmentally friendly and does not alter the formation permeability. The use of nanoparticles has been exploited to enhance the rheological and fluid loss properties in water-based drilling fluid ionic liquid have attracted significant research interest due to its unique thermal stability. It is referred to as ‘green chemical’. The preliminary experimental studies performed are promising. The application of more effective mud additives is always desirable to make the drilling process techno-economically proficient.Keywords: ionic liquid, shale inhibitor, wellbore stability, unconventional
Procedia PDF Downloads 1832742 Social Security Reform and Management: The Case of Three Member Territories of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States
Authors: Cleopatra Gittens
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It has been recognized that some social security and national insurance systems in the Eastern Caribbean are experiencing ageing populations and economic and other crises that will present a financial challenge of being unable to pay pension benefits in fifteen to twenty years. This has implications for the fiscal and economic positions of the countries themselves. Hence, organizations would need to address the issue urgently. The study adds to the body of knowledge on social security systems and social security reforms in small island developing states (SIDS). It also makes recommendations for the types of reforms that social security systems in other SIDS can implement given their special circumstances. Secondary research is used to gather financial and other related information on three social security schemes in the Eastern Caribbean. Actuarial and financial reports and other documents of the social security systems are analysed to obtain financial and static data on each of the schemes. The findings show that the three schemes studied are experiencing steady increases in benefit expenditure versus contributions and increasing pensioner to insured ratios. The schemes will deplete their reserves between 2038 and 2050. Two of the schemes have increased their retirement age while the other has not embarked on any reforms. One scheme has made changes to its contribution percentages. Due to their small size, small populations and other unique circumstances, the social security schemes in the identified territories are not likely to be able to take advantage of all of the reform initiatives that the developed world embarked on when faced with similar problems. These schemes will need to make incremental changes that align with the timeframes recommended by the actuarial studies.Keywords: benefits, pension, small island developing states, social security reform
Procedia PDF Downloads 842741 Parabolic Impact Law of High Frequency Exchanges on Price Formation in Commodities Market
Authors: L. Maiza, A. Cantagrel, M. Forestier, G. Laucoin, T. Regali
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Evaluation of High Frequency Trading (HFT) impact on financial markets is very important for traders who use market analysis to detect winning transaction opportunity. Analysis of HFT data on tobacco commodity market is discussed here and interesting linear relationship has been shown between trading frequency and difference between averaged trading prices above and below considered trading frequency. This may open new perspectives on markets data understanding and could provide possible interpretation of Adam Smith invisible hand.Keywords: financial market, high frequency trading, analysis, impacts, Adam Smith invisible hand
Procedia PDF Downloads 3522740 Artificial Intelligence Methods for Returns Expectations in Financial Markets
Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene
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We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4402739 Finding the Right Regulatory Path for Islamic Banking
Authors: Meysam Saidi
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While the specific externalities and required regulatory measures in relation to Islamic banking are fairly uncertain, the business is growing across the world. Unofficial data indicate that the Islamic Finance market is growing with annual rate of 15% and it has reached 1.3 $ trillion size. This trend is associated with inherent systematic connection of Islamic financial institutions to other entities and different sectors of economies. Islamic banking has been subject of market development policies in major economies, most notably the UK. This trend highlights the need for identification of distinct risk features of Islamic banking and crafting customized regulatory measures. So far there has not been a significant systemic crisis in this market which can be attributed to its distinct nature. However, the significant growth and spread of its products worldwide necessitate an in depth study of its nature for customized congruent regulatory measures. In the post financial crisis era some market analysis and reports suggested that the Islamic banks fairly weathered the crisis. As far as heavily blamed conventional financial products such as subprime mortgage backed securities and speculative credit default swaps were concerned the immunity claim can be considered true, as Islamic financial institutions were not directly exposed to such products. Nevertheless, similar to the experience of the conventional banking industry, it can be only a matter of time for Islamic banks to face failures that can be specific to the nature of their business. Using the experience of conventional banking regulations and identifying those peculiarities of Islamic banking that need customized regulatory approach can aid to prevent major failures. Frank Knight has stated that “We perceive the world before we react to it, and we react not to what we perceive, but always to what we infer”. The debate over congruent Islamic banking regulations might not be an exception to Frank Knight’s statement but I will try to base my discussion on concrete evidences. This paper first analyzes both theoretical and actual features of Islamic banking in order to ascertain to its peculiarities in terms of market stability and other externalities. Next, the paper discusses distinct features of Islamic financial transactions and banking which might require customized regulatory measures. Finally, the paper explores how a more transparent path for the Islamic banking regulations can be drawn.Keywords: Islamic banking, regulation, risks, capital requirements, customer protection, financial stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 4032738 Value Creation of Public Financial Management Reforms through Their Long-Term Impacts
Authors: Christoph Schuler, Oriana Ponta
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Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms are promoted by various international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank, local development banks and the donor country community to strengthen governance and accountability in developing countries across the world. Reform efforts undertaken are often systematically measured against international best practice by the application of standardized analytical instruments such as the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Framework (PEFA) or the Poverty Reduction Action Plan (PARP). While those instruments analyze direct achievements of PFM reforms, the long-term benefits of such reforms for society remain untapped. This gives rise to the question why the concept of impact evaluation with its experimental or quasi-experimental settings in the form of randomized control trials has rarely been applied in the context of PFM reforms. To close this gap, this study provides examples where the concept of impact evaluation can be applied to PFM reforms and thereby shifting the focus from outcome towards a long-term impact. As it is a new approach, this study does not attempt to conduct a fully flagged impact evaluation of a certain PFM reform. However, it will outline, as a form of pre-test the applicability of the impact evaluation methodology in this context, for example, by more closely analyzing the commonly used indicators (for example within PEFA or PARP). This would mean to scrutinize these indicators as to how they were designed and how they are related to the long-term impact, they should be producing. The analysis of PFM reform indicators and their relation to long-term impacts should provide practitioners and scholars alike with new insights on how to strengthen the accountability of public service delivery through successful and sustainable PFM reforms.Keywords: accountability, impact evaluation, PFM reforms, public financial management
Procedia PDF Downloads 3172737 The Finance of Happiness: Thinking Finance from the Science of Happiness Perspective
Authors: Renaud Gaucher
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Research on happiness has developed significantly in the past fifty years and economics and the political science are starting to be influenced by advances in the field. Until recently, finance has stayed outside this movement. The goal of our research is to integrate finance into this movement conceptually. We explain the why, the what and the how of the finance of happiness. We then study the relationship between corporate finance and happiness. We discuss the optimization of the relationship between the financial performance of a firm and the happiness at work of its employees, and the reduction of financial risk by developing goods that foster the happiness of their users. Finally we look at the development of happiness investment funds, that is investment funds founded on happiness research, and the best ways to share risks and earnings to build a happier society.Keywords: finance, happiness, investment fund, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 1842736 Portfolio Selection with Active Risk Monitoring
Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak
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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring
Procedia PDF Downloads 5182735 The Impacts of Export in Stimulating Economic Growth in Ethiopia: ARDL Model Analysis
Authors: Natnael Debalklie Teshome
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The purpose of the study was to empirically investigate the impacts of export performance and its volatility on economic growth in the Ethiopian economy. To do so, time-series data of the sample period from 1974/75 – 2017/18 were collected from databases and annual reports of IMF, WB, NBE, MoFED, UNCTD, and EEA. The extended Cobb-Douglas production function of the neoclassical growth model framed under the endogenous growth theory was used to consider both the performance and instability aspects of export. First, the unit root test was conducted using ADF and PP tests, and data were found in stationery with a mix of I(0) and I(1). Then, the bound test and Wald test were employed, and results showed that there exists long-run co-integration among study variables. All the diagnostic test results also reveal that the model fulfills the criteria of the best-fitted model. Therefore, the ARDL model and VECM were applied to estimate the long-run and short-run parameters, while the Granger causality test was used to test the causality between study variables. The empirical findings of the study reveal that only export and coefficient of variation had significant positive and negative impacts on RGDP in the long run, respectively, while other variables were found to have an insignificant impact on the economic growth of Ethiopia. In the short run, except for gross capital formation and coefficients of variation, which have a highly significant positive impact, all other variables have a strongly significant negative impact on RGDP. This shows exports had a strong, significant impact in both the short-run and long-run periods. However, its positive and statistically significant impact is observed only in the long run. Similarly, there was a highly significant export fluctuation in both periods, while significant commodity concentration (CCI) was observed only in the short run. Moreover, the Granger causality test reveals that unidirectional causality running from export performance to RGDP exists in the long run and from both export and RGDP to CCI in the short run. Therefore, the export-led growth strategy should be sustained and strengthened. In addition, boosting the industrial sector is vital to bring structural transformation. Hence, the government has to give different incentive schemes and supportive measures to exporters to extract the spillover effects of exports. Greater emphasis on price-oriented diversification and specialization on major primary products that the country has a comparative advantage should also be given to reduce value-based instability in the export earnings of the country. The government should also strive to increase capital formation and human capital development via enhancing investments in technology and quality of education to accelerate the economic growth of the country.Keywords: export, economic growth, export diversification, instability, co-integration, granger causality, Ethiopian economy
Procedia PDF Downloads 632734 Effect of Enterprise Risk Management Commitee on the Financial Performance of Listed Banks in Nigeria
Authors: Joseph Uche Azubike, Evelyn Ngozi Agbasi, M. I. Ogbonna
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The audit committee of the board of directors could no longer handle the enterprise's risks. Therefore, a risk management committee was created to control them. Thus, this study examined how enterprise risk management committee characteristics affected Nigerian exchange-listed banks' financial performance from 2013 to 2022. The study's hypotheses and three objectives were to determine how enterprise risk management committee size, composition, and gender diversity affect Nigerian banks' performance. An ex-post facto study design collected secondary data from bank annual reports. We used descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and Ordinary least square regression to analyze panel data. Enterprise risk management committee size and composition had both negative and no significant effect on bank financial performance in Nigeria, whereas enterprise risk committee gender diversity has a 10% favorable effect. The report advises that adding more women with relevant knowledge to the risk committee to boost performance and allowing women to be at the lead of such risk management could improve bank performance in Nigeria since they are noted to be thorough in their tasks.Keywords: bank, committee, enterprise, management, performance, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 332733 The Impact of the Enron Scandal on the Reputation of Corporate Social Responsibility Rating Agencies
Authors: Jaballah Jamil
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KLD (Peter Kinder, Steve Lydenberg and Amy Domini) research & analytics is an independent intermediary of social performance information that adopts an investor-pay model. KLD rating agency does not have an explicit monitoring on the rated firm which suggests that KLD ratings may not include private informations. Moreover, the incapacity of KLD to predict accurately the extra-financial rating of Enron casts doubt on the reliability of KLD ratings. Therefore, we first investigate whether KLD ratings affect investors' perception by studying the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances. Second, we study the impact of the Enron scandal on investors' perception of KLD rating changes by comparing the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances before and after the failure of Enron. We propose an empirical study that relates a number of equally-weighted portfolios returns, excess stock returns and book-to-market ratio to different dimensions of KLD social responsibility ratings. We first find that over the last two decades KLD rating changes influence significantly and negatively stock returns and book-to-market ratio of rated firms. This finding suggests that a raise in corporate social responsibility rating lowers the firm's risk. Second, to assess the Enron scandal's effect on the perception of KLD ratings, we compare the effect of KLD rating changes before and after the Enron scandal. We find that after the Enron scandal this significant effect disappears. This finding supports the view that the Enron scandal annihilates the KLD's effect on Socially Responsible Investors. Therefore, our findings may question results of recent studies that use KLD ratings as a proxy for Corporate Social Responsibility behavior.Keywords: KLD social rating agency, investors' perception, investment decision, financial performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 4332732 A Multi-Dimensional Neural Network Using the Fisher Transform to Predict the Price Evolution for Algorithmic Trading in Financial Markets
Authors: Cristian Pauna
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Trading the financial markets is a widespread activity today. A large number of investors, companies, public of private funds are buying and selling every day in order to make profit. Algorithmic trading is the prevalent method to make the trade decisions after the electronic trading release. The orders are sent almost instantly by computers using mathematical models. This paper will present a price prediction methodology based on a multi-dimensional neural network. Using the Fisher transform, the neural network will be instructed for a low-latency auto-adaptive process in order to predict the price evolution for the next period of time. The model is designed especially for algorithmic trading and uses the real-time price series. It was found that the characteristics of the Fisher function applied at the nodes scale level can generate reliable trading signals using the neural network methodology. After real time tests it was found that this method can be applied in any timeframe to trade the financial markets. The paper will also include the steps to implement the presented methodology into an automated trading system. Real trading results will be displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the model. As conclusion, the compared results will reveal that the neural network methodology applied together with the Fisher transform at the nodes level can generate a good price prediction and can build reliable trading signals for algorithmic trading.Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 1562731 Towards a Reinvented Cash Management Function: Mobilising Innovative Advances for Enhanced Performance and Optimised Cost Management: Insights from Large Moroccan Companies in the Casablanca-Settat Region
Authors: Badrane Nohayla, Bamousse Zineb
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Financial crises, exchange rate volatility, fluctuations in commodity prices, increased competitive pressures, and environmental issues are all threats that businesses face. In light of these diverse challenges, proactive, agile, and innovative cash management becomes an indispensable financial shield, allowing companies to thrive despite the adverse conditions of the global environment. In the same spirit, uncertainty, turbulence, volatility, and competitiveness continue to disrupt economic environments, compelling companies to swiftly master innovative breakthroughs that provide added value. In such a context, innovation emerges as a catalytic vector for performance, aiming to reduce costs, strengthen growth, and ultimately ensure the sustainability of Moroccan companies in the national arena. Moreover, innovation in treasury management promises to be one of the key pillars of financial stability, enabling companies to navigate the tumultuous waters of a globalized environment. Therefore, the objective of this study is to better understand the impact of innovative treasury management on cost optimization and, by extension, performance improvement. To elucidate this relationship, we conducted an exploratory qualitative study with 20 large Moroccan companies operating in the Casablanca-Settat region. The results highlight that innovation at the heart of treasury management is a guarantee of sustainability against the risks of failure and stands as a true pivot of the performance of Moroccan companies, an important parameter of their financial balance and a catalytic vector of their growth in the national economic landscape. In this regard, the present study aims to explore the extent to which innovation at the core of the treasury function serves as an indispensable tool for boosting performance while optimising costs in large Moroccan companies.Keywords: innovative cash management, artificial intelligence, financial performance, risk management, cost savings
Procedia PDF Downloads 192730 Investigating the Suitability of Utilizing Lyophilized Gels to Improve the Stability of Ufasomes
Authors: Mona Hassan Aburahma, Alaa Hamed Salama
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Ufasomes “unsaturated fatty acids liposomes” are unique nano-sized self-assembled bilayered vesicles that can be easily created from the readily available unsaturated fatty acid. Ufasomes are formed due to weak associative interaction of the fully ionized and unionized fatty acids into bilayers structures. In the ufasomes constructs, the fatty acid molecules are oriented with their hydrocarbon tails directed toward the membrane interior and the carboxyl groups are in contact with water. Although ufasomes can be employed as a safe vesicular carrier for drugs, the extreme instability of their aqueous dispersions hinders their effective use in drug delivery field. Accordingly, in our study, lyophilized gels containing ufasomes were prepared using a simple assembling technique form the readily available oleic acid to overcome the colloidal instability of the ufasomes dispersions and convert them into accurate unit dosage forms. The influence of changing cholesterol percentage relative to oleic acid on the ufasomes vesicles were investigated using factorial design. The optimized oleic acid ufasomes comprised nanoscaled spherical vesicles. Scanning electron micrographs of the lyophilized gels revealed that the included ufasomes were intact, non-aggregating, and preserved their spherical morphology. Rheological characterization (viscosity and shear stress versus shear rate) of reconstituted ufasomal lyophilized gel ensured the ease of application. The capability of the ufasomes, included in the gel, to penetrate deep through the mucosa layers was illustrated using ex-vivo confocal laser imaging, thereby, highlighting the feasibility of stabilizing ufasomes using lyophilized gel platforms.Keywords: ufasomes, lyophilized gel, confocal scanning microscopy, rheological characterization, oleic acid
Procedia PDF Downloads 3992729 Evaluating Portfolio Performance by Highlighting Network Property and the Sharpe Ratio in the Stock Market
Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman
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Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.Keywords: portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio
Procedia PDF Downloads 1442728 Overcoming Adversity: Women with Disabled Children and Microfinance Solutions
Authors: Aarif Hussain, Afnan Tariq
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In recent years, microfinance has emerged as a critical tool for promoting financial inclusion and empowering marginalized communities, particularly women. In India, where poverty and lack of access to financial services continue to be significant challenges for many, microfinance has the potential to provide much-needed support to women with disabled children. These women face unique challenges, including discrimination, lack of access to education and employment, and limited support systems, making it even more difficult for them to break out of poverty and provide for their families. Microfinance, by providing small loans, savings products, and other financial services, can help these women to start or grow businesses, build assets, and achieve financial independence. India has adhered to an SHG-bank linkage model of microfinance since 1980, and programs like IRDP and SGSY were initiatives in the same direction. In the year 2011, India launched DAY-NRLM, a restructured version of SGSY. DAY-NRLM is an SHG-based microfinance program targeting the rural women of India. It aims to organise these poor women into SHGs and link them to banking institutions for creating sustainable livelihoods. The program has a reservation for disabled women but has no special status for mothers with disabled children. The impact of microfinance on women with disabilities and their families has been well documented. Studies have shown that women participating in microfinance programs are more likely to start businesses, increase their income, and improve their standard of living. Furthermore, these women are more likely to invest in their children's education and health, which can have long-term positive effects on their family’s well-being. In the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the programme started in 2013 and is running smoothly to date. Women with children having a disability have not been documented as a category within the programme. The core aspect of this study is to delve into these women’s lives and analyse the impact of SHG membership on their lives and their children. The participants were selected purposively. For data collection, in-depth interviews were conducted. The findings of the paper show that microfinance has the potential to play a significant role in promoting financial inclusion and empowering women with children having disabilities in Kashmir. By providing access to small loans, savings products, and other financial services, microfinance can help these women to start or grow businesses, build assets, and achieve financial independence. However, more work is needed to ensure that these women have equal access to financial services and opportunities and that microfinance institutions are equipped to effectively serve this population. Working together to address these challenges can create a brighter future for women with children having disabilities and their families in India.Keywords: DAY-NRLM, microfinance, SHGs, women, disabled children
Procedia PDF Downloads 672727 Modeling the Relation between Discretionary Accrual Earnings Management, International Financial Reporting Standards and Corporate Governance
Authors: Ikechukwu Ndu
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This study examines the econometric modeling of the relation between discretionary accrual earnings management, International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and certain corporate governance factors with regard to listed Nigerian non-financial firms. Although discretionary accrual earnings management is a well-known and global problem that has an adverse impact on users of the financial statements, its relationship with IFRS and corporate governance is neither adequately researched nor properly systematically investigated in Nigeria. The dearth of research in the relation between discretionary accrual earnings management, IFRS and corporate governance in Nigeria has made it difficult for academics, practitioners, government setting bodies, regulators and international bodies to achieve a clearer understanding of how discretionary accrual earnings management relates to IFRS and certain corporate governance characteristics. This is the first study to the author’s best knowledge to date that makes interesting research contributions that significantly add to the literature of discretionary accrual earnings management and its relation with corporate governance and IFRS pertaining to the Nigerian context. A comprehensive review is undertaken of the literature of discretionary total accrual earnings management, IFRS, and certain corporate governance characteristics as well as the data, models, methodologies, and different estimators used in the study. Secondary financial statement, IFRS, and corporate governance data are sourced from Bloomberg database and published financial statements of Nigerian non-financial firms for the period 2004 to 2016. The methodology uses both the total and working capital accrual basis. This study has a number of interesting preliminary findings. First, there is a negative relationship between the level of discretionary accrual earnings management and the adoption of IFRS. However, this relationship does not appear to be statistically significant. Second, there is a significant negative relationship between the size of the board of directors and discretionary accrual earnings management. Third, CEO Separation of roles does not constrain earnings management, indicating the need to preserve relationships, personal connections, and maintain bonded friendships between the CEO, Chairman, and executive directors. Fourth, there is a significant negative relationship between discretionary accrual earnings management and the use of a Big Four firm as an auditor. Fifth, including shareholders in the audit committee, leads to a reduction in discretionary accrual earnings management. Sixth, the debt and return on assets (ROA) variables are significant and positively related to discretionary accrual earnings management. Finally, the company size variable indicated by the log of assets is surprisingly not found to be statistically significant and indicates that all Nigerian companies irrespective of size engage in discretionary accrual management. In conclusion, this study provides key insights that enable a better understanding of the relationship between discretionary accrual earnings management, IFRS, and corporate governance in the Nigerian context. It is expected that the results of this study will be of interest to academics, practitioners, regulators, governments, international bodies and other parties involved in policy setting and economic development in areas of financial reporting, securities regulation, accounting harmonization, and corporate governance.Keywords: discretionary accrual earnings management, earnings manipulation, IFRS, corporate governance
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