Search results for: Israt Jahan Eshita
11 Appraisal of Different Levels of Soybean Meal in Diets on Growth, Digestive Enzyme Activity, Antioxidation and Gut Histology of Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)
Authors: Zakir Hossain, Arzu Pervin, Halima Jahan, Rabeya Akter, Abdel Omri
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Replacement of fish meal with soybean meal is an effective way to relieve the pressure on fish meal as the supply of this feed ingredient is dwindling and certainly is not sustainable in long term at present levels in commercial feeds. This study was designed to determine the effect of fishmeal (FM) replacement with soybean meal (SBM) in diet on growth, digestive enzyme activity, antioxidation and gut histomorphology of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Five diets were formulated where SBM0 contained 100% FM, FM substituted with graded levels of a mix of SBM to replace 25% (SBM25), 50% (SBM50), 75% (SBM75) and 100% (SBM100) of FM. Juvenile tilapia having weight and length of 6.60±0.13 g and 5.42±0.17 cm were randomly divided into five treatment groups having 40 individual each group and fed to visual satiation for 90 days. Diet with SBM was increased significant in body weight gain and specific growth rate in fish compared to the fish fed with SBM100. Fish having the similar weight (74.34±5.41 g) fed the diets SBM50, SBM75 and SBM100 containing higher level of SBM showed significantly longer intestine compared to SBM0. Villus height of stomach and intestine were significantly greater in the fish fed with the diets SBM0, SBM25 and SBM50 compared to SBM100. Muscular thickness was inversely changed with the increasing villus height. Protease activity was increased significantly in stomach, anterior and posterior intestine of fish fed with SBM0 and SBM25 compared to SBM100. In anterior and posterior segment of intestine, significantly higher lipase activity was observed in fish fed with the diets SBM0 and SBM25 compared to diet SBM100. In stomach, amylase activity was also significantly greater in SBM0 compared to SBM100. The antioxidant enzymes including catalase and superoxide dismutase of liver were significantly (P < 0.05) higher in the O. niloticus fed SBM100 compared to the ones fed SBM0. These results suggest that the replacement of FM upto 75% with SBM could be possible considering the growth performances, gut health and activities digestive enzymes and antioxidant enzymes in O. niloticus.Keywords: soybean meal, fish meal, digestive enzymes, anti-oxidant enzymes
Procedia PDF Downloads 17210 Feasibility and Impact of the Community Based Supportive Housing Intervention for Individuals with Chronic Mental Illness in Bangladesh
Authors: Rubina Jahan, Mohammad Zayeed Bin Alam, Razia Sultana, Md. Faroque Miah
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Mental health remains a significant global public health challenge, profoundly affecting millions worldwide. In Bangladesh, the situation is dire, with the National Mental Health Survey 2018-19 indicating that 19% of adults suffer from any kind of mental disorders, including severe mental disorder of around 2%. Despite these high prevalence rates, there is a substantial treatment gap in low- and middle-income countries, including Bangladesh, where up to 92% of individuals with mental illnesses do not receive adequate care. This gap is exacerbated by social barriers such as stigma, discrimination, social exclusion, poverty, homelessness, and human rights violations. To address these challenges, the SAJIDA Foundation launched the Proshanti in November 2022. Proshanti is a community based supportive housing intervention designed to provide cost-effective, sustainable, long-term care for individuals with chronic mental illnesses. It aims to rehabilitate participants by improving their mental health, quality of life, and equipping them with skills necessary for independent living and social mobility. Currently, Proshanti operates seven houses in Manikganj and Habiganj districts of Bangladesh, accommodating up to 40 individuals. Over a two-year period, individuals have received personalized support from trained personal assistants and care coordinators, regular health checkups, and opportunities for vocational training and community engagement. In this presentation, we will present the outcome of such intervention on individual’s functionality, quality of life and psychological health generated from 24 months of journey. Additionally, a qualitative approach will be employed to understand the facilitators and barriers of program implementation. The Proshanti program represents a promising model for addressing the significant mental health treatment gap in Bangladesh at the community level. Our findings will provide crucial insights into the program's feasibility, effectiveness, and the factors influencing its implementation, potentially guiding future mental health interventions in similar contexts.Keywords: mental health, community based supportive housing, treatment gap, bangladesh
Procedia PDF Downloads 509 Formulation of Value Added Beff Meatballs with the Addition of Pomegranate (Punica granatum) Extract as a Source of Natural Antioxident
Authors: M. A. Hashem, I. Jahan
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The experiment was conducted to find out the effect of different levels of Pomegranate (Punica granatum) extract and synthetic antioxidant BHA (Beta Hydroxyl Anisole) on fresh and preserved beef meatballs in order to make functional food. For this purpose, ground beef samples were divided into five treatment groups. They were treated as control group, 0.1% synthetic antioxidant group, 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% pomegranate extract group as T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5 respectively. Proximate analysis, sensory tests (color, flavor, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability), cooking loss, pH value, free fatty acids (FFA), thiobarbituric acid values (TBARS), peroxide value (POV) and microbiological examination were determined in order to evaluate the effect of pomegranate extract as natural antioxidant and antimicrobial activities compared to BHA (Beta Hydroxyl Anisole) at first day before freezing and for maintaining meatballs qualities on the shelf life of beef meat balls stored for 60 days under frozen condition. Freezing temperature was -20˚C. Days of intervals of experiment were on 0, 15th, 30th and 60th days. Dry matter content of all the treatment groups differ significantly (p<0.05). On the contrary, DM content increased significantly (p<0.05) with the advancement of different days of intervals. CP content of all the treatments were increased significantly (p<0.05) among the different treatment groups. EE and Ash content were decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different treatment levels. FFA values, TBARS, POV were decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different treatment levels. Color, odor, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different days of intervals. Raw PH, cooked pH were increased at different treatment levels significantly (p<0.05). The cooking loss (%) at different treatment levels were differ significantly (p<0.05). TVC (logCFU/g), TCC (logCFU/g) and TYMC (logCFU/g) was decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different treatment levels and at different days of intervals comparison to control. Considering CP, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability, cooking loss, FFA, POV, TBARS value and microbial analysis it can be concluded that pomegranate extract at 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% can be used instead of synthetic antioxidant BHA in beef meatballs. On the basis of sensory evaluation, nutrient quality, physicochemical properties, biochemical analysis and microbial analysis 0.3% Pomegranate extract can be recommended for formulation of value added beef meatball enriched with natural antioxidant.Keywords: antioxidant, pomegranate, BHA, value added meat products
Procedia PDF Downloads 2468 Barriers and Facilitators of Community Based Mental Health Intervention (CMHI) in Rural Bangladesh: Findings from a Descriptive Study
Authors: Rubina Jahan, Mohammad Zayeed Bin Alam, Sazzad Chowdhury, Sadia Chowdhury
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Access to mental health services in Bangladesh is a tale of urban privilege and rural struggle. Mental health services in the country are primarily centered in urban medical hospitals, with only 260 psychiatrists for a population of more than 162 million, while rural populations face far more severe and daunting challenges. In alignment with the World Health Organization's perspective on mental health as a basic human right and a crucial component for personal, community, and socioeconomic development; SAJIDA Foundation a value driven non-government organization in Bangladesh has introduced a Community Based Mental Health (CMHI) program to fill critical gaps in mental health care, providing accessible and affordable community-based services to protect and promote mental health, offering support for those grappling with mental health conditions. The CMHI programme is being implemented in 3 districts in Bangladesh, 2 of them are remote and most climate vulnerable areas targeting total 6,797 individual. The intervention plan involves a screening of all participants using a 10-point vulnerability assessment tool to identify vulnerable individuals. The assumption underlying this is that individuals assessed as vulnerable is primarily due to biological, psychological, social and economic factors and they are at an increased risk of developing common mental health issues. Those identified as vulnerable with high risk and emergency conditions will receive Mental Health First Aid (MHFA) and undergo further screening with GHQ-12 to be identified as cases and non-cases. The identified cases are then referred to community lay counsellors with basic training and knowledge in providing 4-6 sessions on problem solving or behavior activation. In situations where no improvement occurs post lay counselling or for individuals with severe mental health conditions, a referral process will be initiated, directing individuals to ensure appropriate mental health care. In our presentation, it will present the findings from 6-month pilot implementation focusing on the community-based screening versus outcome of the lay counseling session and barriers and facilitators of implementing community based mental health care in a resource constraint country like Bangladesh.Keywords: community-based mental health, lay counseling, rural bangladesh, treatment gap
Procedia PDF Downloads 437 E-learning: An Effective Approach for Enhancing Social and Behavior Change Communication Capacity in Bangladesh
Authors: Mohammad K. Abedin, Mohammad Shahjahan, Zeenat Sultana, Tawfique Jahan, Jesmin Akter
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To strengthen social and behavior change communication (SBCC) capacity of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) of the Government of Bangladesh, BCCP/BKMI developed two eLearning courses providing opportunities for professional development of SBCC Program Managers who have no access to training or refreshers training. The two eLearning courses – Message and Material Development (MMD) and Monitoring and Evaluation (MandE) of SBCC programs – went online in September 2015, where all users could register their participation so results could be monitored. Methodology: To assess the uses of these courses a randomly selected sample was collected to run a pre and post-test analyses and a phone survey were conducted. Systematic random sampling was used to select a sample of 75 MandE and 25 MMD course participants from a sampling frame of 179 and 51 respectively. Results: As of September 2016, more than 179 learners have completed the MandE course, and 49 learners have completed the MMD course. The users of these courses are program managers, university faculty members, and students. Encouraging results were revealed from the analysis of pre and post-test scores and a phone survey three months after course completion. Test scores suggested a substantial increase in knowledge. The pre-test scores findings suggested that about 19% learners scored high on the MandE. The post-test scores finding indicated a high score (92%) of the sample across 4 modules of MandE. For MMD course in pre-test scoring, 30% of the learners scored high, and 100% scored high at the post-test. It was found that all the learners in the phone survey have discussed the courses. Most of the sharing occurred with colleagues and friends, usually through face to face (70%) interaction. The learners reported that they did recommend the two courses to concerned people. About 67% MandE and 76% MMD learners stated that the concepts that they had to learn during the course were put into practice in their work settings. The respondents for both MandE and MMD courses have provided a valuable set of suggestions that would further strengthen the courses. Conclusions: The study showed that the initiative offered ample opportunities to build capacity in various ways in which the eLearning courses were used. It also highlighted the importance of scaling up these efforts to further strengthen the outcomes.Keywords: e-learning course, message & material development, monitoring & evaluation, social and behavior change communication
Procedia PDF Downloads 2966 Design Charts for Strip Footing on Untreated and Cement Treated Sand Mat over Underlying Natural Soft Clay
Authors: Sharifullah Ahmed, Sarwar Jahan Md. Yasin
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Shallow foundations on unimproved soft natural soils can undergo a high consolidation and secondary settlement. For low and medium rise building projects on such soil condition, pile foundation may not be cost effective. In such cases an alternative to pile foundations may be shallow strip footings placed on a double layered improved soil system soil. The upper layer of this system is untreated or cement treated compacted sand and underlying layer is natural soft clay. This system will reduce the settlement to an allowable limit. The current research has been conducted with the settlement of a rigid plane-strain strip footing of 2.5 m width placed on the surface of a soil consisting of an untreated or cement treated sand layer overlying a bed of homogeneous soft clay. The settlement of the mentioned shallow foundation has been studied considering both cases with the thicknesses of the sand layer are 0.3 to 0.9 times the width of footing. The response of the clay layer is assumed as undrained for plastic loading stages and drained during consolidation stages. The response of the sand layer is drained during all loading stages. FEM analysis was done using PLAXIS 2D Version 8.0. A natural clay deposit of 15 m thickness and 18 m width has been modeled using Hardening Soil Model, Soft Soil Model, Soft Soil Creep Model, and upper improvement layer has been modeled using only Hardening Soil Model. The groundwater level is at the top level of the clay deposit that made the system fully saturated. Parametric study has been conducted to determine the effect of thickness, density, cementation of the sand mat and density, shear strength of the soft clay layer on the settlement of strip foundation under the uniformly distributed vertical load of varying value. A set of the chart has been established for designing shallow strip footing on the sand mat over thick, soft clay deposit through obtaining the particular thickness of sand mat for particular subsoil parameter to ensure no punching shear failure and no settlement beyond allowable level. Design guideline in the form of non-dimensional charts has been developed for footing pressure equivalent to medium-rise residential or commercial building foundation with strip footing on soft inorganic Normally Consolidated (NC) soil of Bangladesh having void ratio from 1.0 to 1.45.Keywords: design charts, ground improvement, PLAXIS 2D, primary and secondary settlement, sand mat, soft clay
Procedia PDF Downloads 1235 Virtual Engineers on Wheels: Transitioning from Mobile to Online Outreach
Authors: Kauser Jahan, Jason Halvorsen, Kara Banks, Kara Natoli, Elizabeth McWeeney, Brittany LeMasney, Nicole Caramanna, Justin Hillman, Christopher Hauske, Meghan Sparks
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The Virtual Engineers on Wheels (ViEW) is a revised version of our established mobile K-12 outreach program Engineers on Wheels in order to address the pandemic. The Virtual Engineers on Wheels' (VIEW) goal has stayed the same as in prior years: to provide K-12 students and educators with the necessary resources to peak interest in the expanding fields of engineering. With these trying times, the Virtual Engineers on Wheels outreach has adapted its medium of instruction to be more seamless with the online approach to teaching and outreach. In the midst of COVID-19, providing a safe transfer of information has become a constraint for research. The focus has become how to uphold a level of quality instruction without diminishing the safety of those involved by promoting proper health practices and giving hope to students as well as their families. Furthermore, ViEW has created resources on effective strategies that minimize risk factors of COVID-19 and inform families that there is still a promising future ahead. To obtain these goals while still maintaining true to the hands-on learning that is so crucial to young minds, the approach is online video lectures followed by experiments within different engineering disciplines. ViEW has created a comprehensive website that students can leverage to explore the different fields of study. One of the experiments entails teaching about drone usage and how it might play a factor in the future of unmanned deliveries. Some of the other experiments focus on the differences in mask materials and their effectiveness, as well as their environmental outlook. Having students perform from home enables them a safe environment to learn at their own pace while still providing quality instruction that would normally be achieved in the classroom. Contact information is readily available on the website to provide interested parties with a means to ask their inquiries. As it currently stands, the interest in engineering/STEM-related fields is underrepresented from women and certain minority groups. So alongside the desire to grow interest, helping balance the scales is one of the main priorities of VIEW. In previous years, VIEW surveyed students before and after instruction to see if their perception of engineering has changed. In general, it is the understanding that being exposed to engineering/STEM at a young age increases the chances that it will be pursued later in life.Keywords: STEM, engineering outreach, teaching pedagogy, pandemic
Procedia PDF Downloads 1294 From Social Equity to Spatial Equity in Urban Space: Precedent Study Approach
Authors: Dorsa Pourmojib, Marc J. Boutin
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Urban space is used everyday by a diverse range of urban dwellers, each with different expectations. In this space, opportunities and resources are not distributed equitably among urban dwellers, despite the importance of inclusivity. In addition, some marginalized groups may not be considered. These include people with low incomes, immigrants from diverse cultures, various age groups, and those with special needs. To this end, this research aims to enhance social equity in urban space by bridging the gap between social equity and spatial equity in the urban context. This gap in the knowledge base related to urban design may be present for several reasons; lack of studies on relationship between social equity and spatial equity in urban open space, lack of practical design strategies for promoting social equity in urban open space, lack of proper site analysis in terms of context and users of the site both for designing new urban open spaces and developing the existing ones, and lack of researchers that are designers and finally it could be related to priorities of the city’s policies in addressing such issues, since it is time, money and energy consuming. The main objective of this project is addressing the aforementioned gap in the knowledge by exploring the relationship between social equity and spatial equity in urban open space. Answering the main question of this research is a promising step to this end; 'What are the considerations towards providing social equity through the design of urban elements that offer spatial equity?' To answer the main question of this research there are several secondary questions which should be addressed. Such as; how can the characteristics of social equity be translated to spatial equity? What are the diverse user’s needs and which of their needs are not considered in that site? What are the specific elements in the site which should be designed in order to promote social equity? What is the current situation of social and spatial equity in the proposed site? To answer the research questions and achieve the proposed objectives, a three-step methodology has been implemented. Firstly, a comprehensive research framework based on the available literature has been presented. Afterwards, three different urban spaces have been analyzed in terms of specific key research questions as the precedent studies; Naqsh-e Jahan Square (Iran), Superkilen Park (Denmark) and Campo Dei Fiori (Italy). In this regard, a proper gap analysis of the current situation and the proposed situation of these sites has been conducted. Finally, by combining the extracted design considerations from the precedent studies and the literature review, practical design strategies have been introduced as a result of this research. The presented guidelines enable the designers to create socially equitable urban spaces. To conclude, this research proposes a spatial approach to social inclusion and equity in urban space by presenting a practical framework and criteria for translating social equity to spatial equity in urban areas.Keywords: inclusive urban design, social equity, social inclusion, spatial equity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1423 Examining Child Rape Provisions of Bangladesh in Comparison with Other South Asian Countries
Authors: Monira Nazmi Jahan
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Child rape or child abuse is a serious and fearsome crime against children, which is an epidemic almost in every state of today’s world. However, in the case of Bangladesh, the scenario is terrifying. The objective of this paper is to examine the laws relating to child rape in Bangladesh as according to a renowned Daily Newspaper 'Prothom Alo', nearly 346 children are being raped since January 2019. This paper discusses and draws the difference of child rape provisions of Bangladesh with other South-Asian countries, comprises of India, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. In Bangladesh, girls below 18 years are considered to be a child. ‘The Penal Code, 1860’ and a special law ‘Nari O Shishu Nirjatan Daman Ain, 2012’ provides that any person committing child rape will be punished with rigorous life imprisonment and fine. This piece of law also gives provisions for punishment in case of child’s death after the commission of rape and gang rape, and the punishment is the death penalty. In India there is ‘The Protection of Children from Sexual Offences Act, 2012’ (POSCO) which has separate provisions for sexual assault, penetrative sexual assault and aggravated penetrative sexual assault by different categories of person such as relatives, institutional officers and trustees and also for mentally and physically challenged child victims and provides punishment up to death penalty. In Pakistan, there is ‘Pakistan Penal Code Amended Act, 2016’ which has only two provisions for child rape. In case offence committed by one person, the punishment is 10 to 25 years of imprisonment and fine. In case of offence committed by two or more persons, each shall be liable to death or imprisonment for life. Unfortunately, Afghanistan has no laws for the protection of rape victims of women let alone children, whereas there are a lot of child rape cases, including both girls and boys who are used for sexual slavery. The Maldives has a special law named ‘Special Provisions Act to Deal with Child Sex Abuse Offenders.’ This has categorized the offenders like POSCO and has provided punishments accordingly. The punishments are: punishments range from 1 to 25 years accordingly, whereas Bangladesh has lesser provisions, but the gravity and duration of punishments are much higher. The Penal Code of Sri Lanka imposes a minimum sentence of 10 years for those convicted of raping a child under 18 years. In Bhutan, child rape provision is made according to the age of a child. ‘The Penal Code of Bhutan, 2004’, mentions provisions for the rape of a child in case of child rape below and above 12 years, gang rape of a child below and above 12 years and has graded the punishments as first, second and third degree. Though Bangladesh has better provisions for punishments, the ages are not categorized in the laws. In Nepal there is ‘Act relating to Children, 2018’ provisions are made for offenders who use or cause or engage child sexual exploitation, and the punishment is same for rape offenders according to prevailing laws in Nepal. No separate punishments for child offenders are made. The ultimate conclusion that can be drawn is Bangladesh has better punishments than all other South-Asian countries and same punishment as India however, Bangladesh can make or amend the laws and categorize offenders as like POSCO of India, Special provisions of Maldives and Bhutan.Keywords: child rape, death penalty, sexual slavery, South Asia
Procedia PDF Downloads 1102 High Prevalence of Asymptomatic Dengue among Healthy Adults in Southern Malaysia: A Longitudinal Prospective Study
Authors: Nowrozy Jahan, Sharifah Syed Hassan, Daniel Reidpath
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In recent decades, Malaysia has become a dengue hyper-endemic country with the co-circulation of the four-dengue virus (DENV) serotypes. The number of symptomatic dengue cases is maintaining an increasing trend since 1995 and sharply increased in 2014. The four DENV serotypes have been co-circulating since 2000, and this pattern of cyclical dominance of sub-types contributed to the development of frequent major dengue epidemics in Malaysia. Since 2012, different Malaysian state was dominated by different serotypes. The study aims to estimate the burden of asymptomatic dengue in a healthy adult population which may act as a potential source of further symptomatic dengue infection. It also aims to identify the predominant DENV serotypes which are circulating at the community level. A longitudinal prospective community-based study was conducted in the Segamat district of Johor State, southern part of Malaysia where the number of reported dengue cases has steadily increased over the last three years (2013-2015). More specifically, the study was conducted in and around of Kampung Abdullah of Sungai Segamat sub-district which was identified as a hot spot area over the period of 2013-2015. This community-based study has been conducted by Southeast Asia Community Observatory (SEACO), an ISO-certified research platform in collaboration of the Ministry of Health Malaysia and Monash University Malaysia. It was conducted from May 2015 to May 2016. In this study, 277 apparently looking healthy respondents joined who were followed up as a cohort for four times during the one-year study period. Blood was collected to detect the serological marker of dengue at each round of follow-up. Among 277, 184 respondents (66%) joined all four rounds. Half of the study respondents were at the age-group of 45-64 years, slightly more than half of the respondents (59%) were female, and the most (69%) of them were Malay; only 35% lived in urban areas. During the baseline, the study found a very high prevalence of exposure to dengue virus; 89% of the study respondents had serological evidence of previous asymptomatic dengue infection; the majority of them did not know about it as they did not develop any symptom of dengue fever; only 13% knew as they developed symptoms. At the end of the one-year study period, 19% of respondents developed recent secondary dengue infection which was also identified by the serological marker as they did not develop any symptom (asymptomatic cases). The asymptomatic dengue incidence was higher during the rainy season compared to the dry season. All four dengue serotypes were identified in the serum of the infected respondents; among them, DENV-2 was the most prominent. Further genetic analysis is going on to identify the association of HLA-B*46 and HLA-DRB1*08 with dengue resistance. This study provides evidence for the policymakers to be aware of asymptomatic dengue infection, to develop a useful tool for raising awareness about asymptomatic dengue infection among the general population, to monitor the community participation to strengthen the individual and community level dengue prevention and control measures when neither there is vaccine nor particular treatment for dengue.Keywords: asymptomatic, dengue, health adults, prospective study
Procedia PDF Downloads 1301 Teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Seasonal Flow of the Surma River and Possibilities of Long Range Flood Forecasting
Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan
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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index
Procedia PDF Downloads 153