Search results for: regression modeling of extremes

Authors: Adel Francis

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Most of scheduling methods and software apply the critical path logic. This logic schedule activities, apply constraints between these activities and try to optimize and level the allocated resources. The extensive use of this logic produces a complex an erroneous network hard to present, follow and update. Planning and management building projects should tackle the coordination of works and the management of limited spaces, traffic, and supplies. Activities cannot be performed without the resources available and resources cannot be used beyond the capacity of workplaces. Otherwise, workspace congestion will negatively affect the flow of works. The objective of the space planning is to link the spatial and temporal aspects, promote efficient use of the site, define optimal site occupancy rates, and ensures suitable rotation of the workforce in the different spaces. The Chronographic scheduling modelling belongs to this category and models construction operations as well as their processes, logical constraints, association and organizational models, which help to better illustrate the schedule information using multiple flexible approaches. The model defined three categories of areas (punctual, surface and linear) and four different layers (space creation, systems, closing off space, finishing, and reduction of space). The Chronographical modelling is a more complete communication method, having the ability to alternate from one visual approach to another by manipulation of graphics via a set of parameters and their associated values. Each individual approach can help to schedule a certain project type or specialty. Visual communication can also be improved through layering, sheeting, juxtaposition, alterations, and permutations, allowing for groupings, hierarchies, and classification of project information. In this way, graphic representation becomes a living, transformable image, showing valuable information in a clear and comprehensible manner, simplifying the site management while simultaneously utilizing the visual space as efficiently as possible.

Keywords: building projects, chronographic modelling, CPM, critical path, precedence diagram, scheduling

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Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

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The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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Authors: Asrat Agalu Abejew

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Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a silent tsunami and one of the top global threats to health care and public health. It is one of the common agendas globally and in Ethiopia. Emerging AMR will be a double burden to Ethiopia, which is facing a series of problems from infectious disease morbidity and mortality. In Ethiopia, although there are attempts to document AMR in healthcare institutions, comprehensive and all-inclusive analysis is still lacking. Thus, this study is aimed to determine trends in AMR from 2016-2021. Methods: A retrospective analysis of secondary data recorded in the Amhara Public Health Institute (APHI) from 2016 to 2021 G.C was conducted. Blood, Urine, Stool, Swabs, Discharge, body effusions, and other Microbiological specimens were collected from each study participants, and Bacteria identification and Resistance tests were done using the standard microbiologic procedure. Data was extracted from excel in August 2022, Trends in AMR were analyzed, and the results were described. In addition, the chi-square (X2) test and binary logistic regression were used, and a P. value < 0.05 was used to determine a significant association. Results: During 6 years period, there were 25143 culture and susceptibility tests. Overall, 265 (46.2%) bacteria were resistant to 2-4 antibiotics, 253 (44.2%) to 5-7 antibiotics, and 56 (9.7%) to >=8 antibiotics. The gram-negative bacteria were 166 (43.9%), 155 (41.5%), and 55 (14.6%) resistant to 2-4, 5-7, and ≥8 antibiotics, respectively, whereas 99(50.8%), 96(49.2% and 1 (0.5%) of gram-positive bacteria were resistant to 2-4, 5-7 and ≥8 antibiotics respectively. K. pneumonia 3783 (15.67%) and E. coli 3199 (13.25%) were the most commonly isolated bacteria, and the overall prevalence of AMR was 2605 (59.9%), where K. pneumonia 743 (80.24%), E. cloacae 196 (74.81%), A. baumannii 213 (66.56%) being the most common resistant bacteria for antibiotics tested. Except for a slight decline during 2020 (6469 (25.4%)), the overall trend of AMR is rising from year to year, with a peak in 2019 (8480 (33.7%)) and in 2021 (7508 (29.9%). If left un-intervened, the trend in AMR will increase by 78% of variation from the study period, as explained by the differences in years (R2=0.7799). Ampicillin, Augmentin, ciprofloxacin, cotrimoxazole, tetracycline, and Tobramycin were almost resistant to common bacteria they were tested. Conclusion: AMR is linearly increasing during the last 6 years. If left as it is without appropriate intervention after 15 years (2030 E.C), AMR will increase by 338.7%. A growing number of multi-drug resistant bacteria is an alarm to awake policymakers and those who do have the concern to intervene before it is too late. This calls for a periodic, integrated, and continuous system to determine the prevalence of AMR in commonly used antibiotics.

Keywords: AMR, trend, pattern, MDR

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Authors: Ling Liyun

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In the field of contemporary architecture, complex forms of architectural works continue to emerge in the world, along with some new terminology emerged: digital architecture, parametric design, algorithm generation, building information modeling, CNC construction and so on. Architects gradually mastered the new skills of mathematical logic in the form of exploration, virtual simulation, and the entire design and coordination in the construction process. Digital construction technology has a greater degree in controlling construction, and ensure its accuracy, creating a series of new construction techniques. As a result, the use of digital technology is an improvement and expansion of the practice of digital architecture design revolution. We worked by reading and analyzing information about the digital architecture development process, a large number of cases, as well as architectural design and construction as a whole process. Thus current developments were introduced and discussed in our paper, such as architectural discourse, design theory, digital design models and techniques, material selecting, as well as artificial intelligence space design. Our paper also pays attention to the representative three cases of digital design and construction experiment at great length in detail to expound high-informatization, high-reliability intelligence, and high-technique in constructing a humane space to cope with the rapid development of urbanization. We concluded that the opportunities and challenges of the shift existed in architectural paradigms, such as the cooperation methods, theories, models, technologies and techniques which were currently employed in digital design research and digital praxis. We also find out that the innovative use of space can gradually change the way people learn, talk, and control information. The past two decades, digital technology radically breaks the technology constraints of industrial technical products, digests the publicity on a particular architectural style (era doctrine). People should not adapt to the machine, but in turn, it’s better to make the machine work for users.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, collaboration, digital architecture, digital design theory, material selection, space construction

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Authors: Zhuo Feng, Ying Gao

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Public-private partnership (PPP), as an innovative way to provide infrastructures by the private sector, is being widely used throughout the world. Compared with the traditional mode, PPP emerges largely for merits of relieving public budget constraint and improving infrastructure supply efficiency by involving private funds. However, PPP projects are characterized by large scale, high investment, long payback period, and long concession period. These characteristics make PPP projects full of risks. One of the most important risks faced by the private sector is demand risk because many factors affect the real demand. If the real demand is far lower than the forecasting demand, the private sector will be got into big trouble because operating revenue is the main means for the private sector to recoup the investment and obtain profit. Therefore, it is important to study how the government compensates the private sector when the demand risk occurs in order to achieve Pareto-improvement. This research focuses on price compensation mechanism, an ex-post compensation mechanism, and analyzes, by mathematical modeling, the impact of price compensation mechanism on payoff of the private sector and consumer surplus for PPP toll road projects. This research first investigates whether or not price compensation mechanisms can obtain Pareto-improvement and, if so, then explores boundary conditions for this mechanism. The research results show that price compensation mechanism can realize Pareto-improvement under certain conditions. Especially, to make the price compensation mechanism accomplish Pareto-improvement, renegotiation costs of the government and the private sector should be lower than a certain threshold which is determined by marginal operating cost and distortionary cost of the tax. In addition, the compensation percentage should match with the price cut of the private investor when demand drops. This research aims to provide theoretical support for the government when determining compensation scope under the price compensation mechanism. Moreover, some policy implications can also be drawn from the analysis for better risk-sharing and sustainability of PPP projects.

Keywords: infrastructure, price compensation mechanism, public-private partnership, renegotiation

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Authors: Zeynep Altinkaya, Ugur Dal, Figen Dag, Dilan D. Koyuncu, Merve Turkegun

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Obesity is defined as abnormal fat-tissue accumulation as a result of imbalance between energy intake and expenditure. Since 50-70% daily energy expenditure of sedantary individuals is consumed as resting energy expenditure (REE), it takes an important place in the evaluation of new methods for obesity treatment. Also, it is known that walking is a prevalent activity in the prevention of obesity. The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the resting and walking energy expenditures of individuals with different body mass index (BMI). In this research, 4 groups are formed as underweight (BMI < 18,5 kg/m2), normal (BMI=18,5-24,9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI=25-29,9 kg/m2), and obese (BMI ≥ 30) according to BMI of individuals. 64 healthy young adults (8 man and 8 woman per group, age 18-30 years) with no known gait disabilities were recruited in this study. The body compositions of all participants were measured via bioelectric empedance analysis method. The energy expenditure of individuals was measured with indirect calorimeter method as inspired and expired gas samples are collected breath-by-breath through a special facemask. The preferred walking speed (PWS) of each subject was determined by using infrared sensors placed in 2nd and 12th meters of 14 m walkway. The REE was measured for 15 min while subjects were lying, and walking energy expenditure was measured during subjects walk in their PWS on treadmill. The gross REE was significantly higher in obese subjects compared to underweight and normal subjects (p < 0,0001). When REE was normalized to body weight, it was higher in underweight and normal groups than overweight and obese groups (p < 0,0001). However, when REE was normalized to fat-free mass, it did not differ significantly between groups. The gross walking energy expenditure in PWS was higher in obese and overweight groups than underweight and normal groups (p < 0,0001). The regression coefficient between gross walking energy expenditure and body weight was significiant among normal and obese groups (p < 0.05). It accounted for 70,5% of gross walking energy expenditure in normal group, and 57,9% of gross walking energy expenditure in obese group. It is known that obese individuals have more metabolically inactive fat-tissue compared to other groups. While excess fat-tissue increases total body weight, it does not contribute much to REE. Therefore, REE results normalized to body weight could lead to misleading results. In order to eliminate fat-mass effect on REE of obese individuals, REE normalized to fat-free mass should be used to acquire more accurate results. On the other hand, the fat-mass increasement raises energy requirement while walking to retain the body balance. Thus, gross walking energy expenditure should be taken into consideration for the evaluating energy expenditure of walking.

Keywords: body composition, obesity, resting energy expenditure, walking energy expenditure

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Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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Authors: Samul Sahile Kebede

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Back ground: -Immune hemolytic anemia commonly affects human immune deficiency, infected individuals. Among anemic HIV patients in Africa, the burden of IHA due to autoantibody was ranged from 2.34 to 3.06 due to the drug was 43.4%. IHA due to autoimmune is potentially a fatal complication of HIV, which accompanies the greatest percent from acquired hemolytic anemia. Objective: -The main aim of this study was to determine the magnitude and associated factors of immune hemolytic anemia among human immuno deficiency virus infected adults at the university of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital north west Ethiopia from March to April 2021. Methods: - An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 358 human immunodeficiency virus-infected adults selected by systematic random sampling at the University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital from March to April 2021. Data for socio-demography, dietary and clinical data were collected by structured pretested questionnaire. Five ml of venous blood was drawn from each participant and analyzed by Unicel DHX 800 hematology analyzer, blood film examination, and antihuman globulin test were performed to the diagnosis of immune hemolytic anemia. Data was entered into Epidata version 4.6 and analyzed by STATA version 14. Descriptive statistics were computed and firth penalized logistic regression was used to identify predictors. P value less than 0.005 interpreted as significant. Result; - The overall prevalence of immune hemolytic anemia was 2.8 % (10 of 358 participants). Of these, 5 were males, and 7 were in the 31 to 50 year age group. Among individuals with immune hemolytic anemia, 40 % mild and 60 % moderate anemia. The factors that showed association were family history of anemia (AOR 8.30 at 95% CI 1.56, 44.12), not eating meat (AOR 7.39 at 95% CI 1.25, 45.0), and high viral load 6.94 at 95% CI (1.13, 42.6). Conclusion and recommendation; Immune hemolytic anemia is less frequent condition in human immunodeficiency virus infected adults, and moderate anemia was common in this population. The prevalence was increased with a high viral load, a family history of anemia, and not eating meat. In these patients, early detection and treatment of immune hemolytic anemia is necessary.

Keywords: anemia, hemolytic, immune, auto immune, HIV/AIDS

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Authors: Christina Esti Susanti

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This study aimed to determine the effect Activities in marketing, Destination Marketing, and Environmental preservation loyalty through satisfaction at tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia. In this study population used is Surabaya citizens who had visited tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia. Characteristics of a sample of respondents in this study are: a minimum age of 17 years, and ever came in tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia with each destination more than 1 visits. Total sample 316 respondents. Data analysis tools which is used in this study is a structural equation modeling. Based on the analysis, the results of this study can be concluded that the hypothesis 1, 2, 5, and 6 are proposed in this study was rejected because not significant. The hypotheses are: (1) Activities in destination have influence which is positive effect on satisfaction in the tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia, (2) Destination marketing have influence which is positive effect on satisfaction in the tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia, (3) Activities in destination have influence which is positive effect towards loyalty through satisfaction in a tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia. (4) Destination marketing have influence which is positive effect on loyalty through satisfaction in a tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia. While the hypothesis 3, 4, and 7, is received. The hypotheses are: (1) Environmental preservation have influence which is positive effect and significant on satisfaction in the tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia. (2) Satisfaction have influence which is positive effect and significant on loyalty to the tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia. (3) Environmental preservation have influence which is positive effect and significant on loyalty through satisfaction in a tourist destination in East Java, Indonesia. Practical advice submitted to the management of tourist destinations, especially in the 10 areas where research was conducted for more attention to the condition of the physical environment to be around tourist spots / attractions, namely: the condition of roads, water supply conditions, the condition of drainage / sanitation, and the condition waste more seriously. Based on the proposal, the manager of a tourist destination seems to be working closely with the local municipal sanitation departments, local water companies local city and town local public works departments to jointly manage a tourist destination considering regional tourism is one of the region's assets and become one sources of local revenue (PAD) is vital.

Keywords: activities in marketing, destination amarketing, environmental preservation, satisfaction, loyalty

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Authors: Elcin Timur Cakmak, Ayse Oguzlar

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This study presents the results of the tweets sent by Twitter users on social media about the Russia-Ukraine war by bigram and trigram methods. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a military operation against Ukraine, and all eyes were turned to this war. Many people living in Russia and Ukraine reacted to this war and protested and also expressed their deep concern about this war as they felt the safety of their families and their futures were at stake. Most people, especially those living in Russia and Ukraine, express their views on the war in different ways. The most popular way to do this is through social media. Many people prefer to convey their feelings using Twitter, one of the most frequently used social media tools. Since the beginning of the war, it is seen that there have been thousands of tweets about the war from many countries of the world on Twitter. These tweets accumulated in data sources are extracted using various codes for analysis through Twitter API and analysed by Python programming language. The aim of the study is to find the word sequences in these tweets by the n-gram method, which is known for its widespread use in computational linguistics and natural language processing. The tweet language used in the study is English. The data set consists of the data obtained from Twitter between February 24, 2022, and April 24, 2022. The tweets obtained from Twitter using the #ukraine, #russia, #war, #putin, #zelensky hashtags together were captured as raw data, and the remaining tweets were included in the analysis stage after they were cleaned through the preprocessing stage. In the data analysis part, the sentiments are found to present what people send as a message about the war on Twitter. Regarding this, negative messages make up the majority of all the tweets as a ratio of %63,6. Furthermore, the most frequently used bigram and trigram word groups are found. Regarding the results, the most frequently used word groups are “he, is”, “I, do”, “I, am” for bigrams. Also, the most frequently used word groups are “I, do, not”, “I, am, not”, “I, can, not” for trigrams. In the machine learning phase, the accuracy of classifications is measured by Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Naïve Bayes (NB) algorithms. The algorithms are used separately for bigrams and trigrams. We gained the highest accuracy and F-measure values by the NB algorithm and the highest precision and recall values by the CART algorithm for bigrams. On the other hand, the highest values for accuracy, precision, and F-measure values are achieved by the CART algorithm, and the highest value for the recall is gained by NB for trigrams.

Keywords: classification algorithms, machine learning, sentiment analysis, Twitter

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Authors: Krisztina Bohacs, Klaudia Markus

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To author’s best knowledge we are in absence of studies on cognitive program evaluation and we are certainly short of programs that prove to have high effect sizes with strong retention results. The purpose of our study was to investigate the effectiveness of a comprehensive cognitive training program, namely BrainRx. This cognitive rehabilitation program target and remediate seven core cognitive skills and related systems of sub-skills through repeated engagement in game-like mental procedures delivered one-on-one by a clinician, supplemented by digital training. A larger sample of children with learning disability were given pretest and post-test cognitive assessments. The experimental group completed a twenty-week cognitive training program in a BrainRx center. A matched control group received another twenty-week intervention with Feuerstein’s Instrumental Enrichment programs. A second matched control group did not receive training. As for pre- and post-test, we used a general intelligence test to assess IQ and a computer-based test battery for assessing cognition across the lifespan. Multiple regression analyses indicated that the experimental BrainRx treatment group had statistically significant higher outcomes in attention, working memory, processing speed, logic and reasoning, auditory processing, visual processing and long-term memory compared to the non-treatment control group with very large effect sizes. With the exception of logic and reasoning, the BrainRx treatment group realized significantly greater gains in six of the above given seven cognitive measures compared to the Feuerstein control group. Our one-year retention measures showed that all the cognitive training gains were above ninety percent with the greatest retention skills in visual processing, auditory processing, logic, and reasoning. The BrainRx program may be an effective tool to establish long-term cognitive changes in case of students with learning disabilities. Recommendations are made for treatment centers and special education institutions on the cognitive training of students with special needs. The importance of our study is that targeted, systematic, progressively loaded and intensive brain training approach may significantly change learning disabilities.

Keywords: cognitive rehabilitation training, cognitive skills, learning disability, permanent structural cognitive changes

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Authors: Lihyo Sung

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Background: Children and teens in Korea experience extreme levels of academic stress. To perform better on the college entrance exam and gain admission to Korea’s most prestigious universities, they devote a significant portion of their early lives to studying. Because of their excessive preparation for entrance exams, students have become accustomed to passive and involuntary engagement. Any student starting university, however, faces new challenges that require more active involvement and self-regulated practice. As a way to tackle this issue, the study focuses on investigating the mediating effects of positive psychological capital on the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity among Korean university students. Objectives and Hypotheses: The long term goal of this study is to offer insights that promote the use of positive psychological interventions in the development and adaptation of career maturity. The current objective is to assess the role of positive psychological capital as a mediator between self-leadership and career maturity among Korean university students. Based on previous research, the hypotheses are: (a) self-leadership will be positively associated with indices of career maturity, and (b) positive psychological capital will partially or fully mediate the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity. Sample Characteristics and Sample Size: Participants in the current study consisted of undergraduate students enrolled in various courses at 5 large universities in Korea. A total of 181 students participated in the study. Methodology: A quantitative research design was adopted to test the hypotheses proposed in the current study. By using a cross-sectional approach to research, a self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data on indices of positive psychological capital, self-leadership, and career maturity. The data were analyzed by means of Cronbach's alpha, Pierson correlation test, multiple regression, path analysis, and SPSS for Windows version 22.0 using descriptive statistics. Results: Findings showed that positive psychological capital fully mediated the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity. Self-leadership significantly impacted positive psychological capital and career maturity, respectively. Scientific Contribution: The results of the current study provided useful insights into the role of psychological strengths such as positive psychological capital in improving self-leadership and career maturity. Institutions can assist in increasing positive psychological capital through the creation of positive experiences for undergraduate students, such as opportunities for coaching and mentoring.

Keywords: career maturity, mediating role, positive psychological capital, self-leadership

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Authors: Oluwafemi Samuel Oyamakin

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The forest in Nigeria is currently estimated to extend to around 9.6 million hectares, but used to expand over central and southern Nigeria decades ago. The forest estate is shrinking due to long-term human exploitation for agricultural development, fuel wood demand, uncontrolled forest harvesting and urbanization, amongst other factors, compounded by population growth in rural areas. Nigeria has lost more than 50% of its forest cover since 1990 and currently less than 10% of the country is forested. The current deforestation rate is estimated at 3.7%, which is one of the highest in the world. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks constituted what is referred to as REDD+. This study evaluated some of the existing way of computing carbon stocks using eight indigenous tree species like Mansonia, Shorea, Bombax, Terminalia superba, Khaya grandifolia, Khaya senegalenses, Pines and Gmelina arborea. While these components are the essential elements of REDD+ programme, they can be brought under a broader framework of systems analysis designed to arrive at optimal solutions for future predictions through statistical distribution pattern of carbon sequestrated by various species of tree. Available data on height and diameter of trees in Ibadan were studied and their respective potentials of carbon sequestration level were assessed and subjected to tests so as to determine the best statistical distribution that would describe the carbon sequestration pattern of trees. The result of this study suggests a reasonable statistical distribution for carbons sequestered in simulation studies and hence, allow planners and government in determining resources forecast for sustainable development especially where experiments with real-life systems are infeasible. Sustainable management of forest can then be achieved by projecting future condition of forests under different management regimes thereby supporting conservation and REDD+ programmes in Nigeria.

Keywords: REDD+, carbon, climate change, height and diameter

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Authors: Armin Bodaghkhani, Bruce Colbourne, Yuri S. Muzychka

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The process of spray-cloud formation and flow kinematics produced from breaking wave impact on vertical and slant lab-scale bow-shaped models were experimentally investigated. Bubble Image Velocimetry (BIV) and Image Processing (IP) techniques were applied to study the various types of wave-model impacts. Different wave characteristics were generated in a tow tank to investigate the effects of wave characteristics, such as wave phase velocity, wave steepness on droplet velocities, and behavior of the process of spray cloud formation. The phase ensemble-averaged vertical velocity and turbulent intensity were computed. A high-speed camera and diffused LED backlights were utilized to capture images for further post processing. Various pressure sensors and capacitive wave probes were used to measure the wave impact pressure and the free surface profile at different locations of the model and wave-tank, respectively. Droplet sizes and velocities were measured using BIV and IP techniques to trace bubbles and droplets in order to measure their velocities and sizes by correlating the texture in these images. The impact pressure and droplet size distributions were compared to several previously experimental models, and satisfactory agreements were achieved. The distribution of droplets in front of both models are demonstrated. Due to the highly transient process of spray formation, the drag coefficient for several stages of this transient displacement for various droplet size ranges and different Reynolds number were calculated based on the ensemble average method. From the experimental results, the slant model produces less spray in comparison with the vertical model, and the droplet velocities generated from the wave impact with the slant model have a lower velocity as compared with the vertical model.

Keywords: spray charachteristics, droplet size and velocity, wave-body interactions, bubble image velocimetry, image processing

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Authors: Jhoga Parth, T. Nasar, K. V. Anand

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An idealized definition of shoreline is that it is the zone of coincidence of three spheres such as atmosphere, lithosphere, and hydrosphere. Despite its apparent simplicity, this definition in practice a challenge to apply. In reality, the shoreline location deviates continually through time, because of various dynamic factors such as wave characteristics, currents, coastal orientation and the bathymetry, which makes the shoreline volatile. This necessitates us to monitor the shoreline in a temporal basis. If shoreline’s nature is understood at particular coastal stretch, it need not be the same trend at the other location, though belonging to the same sea front. Shoreline change is hence a local phenomenon and has to be studied with great intensity considering as many factors involved as possible. Erosion and accretion of sediment are such natures of a shoreline, which needs to be quantified by comparing with its predeceasing variations and understood before implementing any coastal projects. In recent years, advent of Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) acts as an emerging tool to quantify the intra and inter annual sediment rate getting accreted or deposited compared to other conventional methods in regards with time was taken and man power. Remote sensing data, on the other hand, paves way to acquire historical sets of data where field data is unavailable with a higher resolution. Short term and long term period shoreline change can be accurately tracked and monitored using a software residing in GIS - Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) developed by United States Geological Survey (USGS). In the present study, using DSAS, End Point Rate (EPR) is calculated analyze the intra-annual changes, and Linear Rate Regression (LRR) is adopted to study inter annual changes of shoreline. The shoreline changes are quantified for the scenario during the construction of breakwater in Ponnani river inlet along Kerala coast, India. Ponnani is a major fishing and landing center located 10°47’12.81”N and 75°54’38.62”E in Malappuram district of Kerala, India. The rate of erosion and accretion is explored using satellite and field data. The full paper contains the rate of change of shoreline, and its analysis would provide us understanding the behavior of the inlet at the study area during the construction of the training walls.

Keywords: DSAS, end point rate, field measurements, geo-informatics, shoreline variation

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Authors: Anshita Sharma

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India is one of the countries to initiate family planning with intention to control the growing population by reducing fertility. In effort to this, India had introduced the National family planning programme in 1952. The level of unmet need in India shows a reducing trend with increasing effectiveness of family planning services as in NFHS-1 the unmet need for limiting, spacing and total was 46 percent, 14 percent & 9 percent, respectively. The demand for spacing has reduced to at 8 percent, 8 percent for limiting and total unmet need was 16 percent in NFHS-2. The total unmet need has reduced to 13 percent in NFHS-3 for all currently married women and the demand for limiting and spacing is 7 percent and 6 percent respectively. The level of unmet need in India shows a reducing trend with increasing effectiveness of family planning services. Despite the progress, there is chunk of women who are deprived of controlling unintended and unwanted pregnancies. The present paper examines the socio-cultural and economic and demographic correlates of unmet need for contraception in India. It also examines the effect of women’s autonomy and unmet need for contraception on family size among different socio-economic groups of population. It uses data from national family health survey-3 carried out in 2005-06 and employs bi-variate techniques and multivariate techniques for analysis. The multiple regression analysis has done to seek the level and direction of relationship among various socio-economic and demographic factors. The result reveals that women with higher level of education and economic status have low level of unmet need for family planning. Women living in non-nuclear family have high unmet need for spacing and women living in nuclear family have high unmet need for limiting and family size is slightly higher of women of nuclear family. In India, the level of autonomy varies at different life point; usually women with higher age enjoy higher autonomy than their junior female member in the family. The finding shows that women with higher autonomy have large family size counter to women with low autonomy have low family size. Unmet need for family planning decrease with women’s increasing exposure to mass- media. The demographic factors like experience of child loss are directly related to family size. Women who experience higher child loss have low unmet need for spacing and limiting. Thus, It is established with the help that women’s autonomy status play substantial role in fulfilling demand of contraception for limiting and spacing which affect the family size.

Keywords: family size, socio-economic correlates, unmet need for limiting, unmet need for spacing, women`s autonomy

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Authors: Michael A. Sprayberry, Vincent C. Paquit

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Process parameter optimization in metal powder bed electron beam melting (MPBEBM) is crucial to ensure the technology's repeatability, control, and industry-continued adoption. Despite continued efforts to address the challenges via the traditional design of experiments and process mapping techniques, there needs to be more successful in an on-the-fly optimization framework that can be adapted to MPBEBM systems. Additionally, data-intensive physics-based modeling and simulation methods are difficult to support by a metal AM alloy or system due to cost restrictions. To mitigate the challenge of resource-intensive experiments and models, this paper introduces a Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) methodology defined as an optimization problem for MPBEBM. An off-policy MORL framework based on policy gradient is proposed to discover optimal sets of beam power (P) – beam velocity (v) combinations to maintain a steady-state melt pool depth and phase transformation. For this, an experimentally validated Eagar-Tsai melt pool model is used to simulate the MPBEBM environment, where the beam acts as the agent across the P – v space to maximize returns for the uncertain powder bed environment producing a melt pool and phase transformation closer to the optimum. The culmination of the training process yields a set of process parameters {power, speed, hatch spacing, layer depth, and preheat} where the state (P,v) with the highest returns corresponds to a refined process parameter mapping. The resultant objects and mapping of returns to the P-v space show convergence with experimental observations. The framework, therefore, provides a model-free multi-objective approach to discovery without the need for trial-and-error experiments.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, metal powder bed fusion, reinforcement learning, process parameter optimization

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Authors: Nikhil Padhye

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Recently a new phenomenon for bonding of polymeric films in solid-state, at ambient temperatures well below the glass transition temperature of the polymer, has been reported. This is achieved by bulk plastic compression of polymeric films held in contact. Here we analyze the process of cold-rolling of polymeric films via finite element simulations and illustrate a flexible and modular experimental rolling-apparatus that can achieve bonding of polymeric films through cold-rolling. Firstly, the classical theory of rolling a rigid-plastic thin-strip is utilized to estimate various deformation fields such as strain-rates, velocities, loads etc. in rolling the polymeric films at the specified feed-rates and desired levels of thickness-reduction(s). Predicted magnitudes of slow strain-rates, particularly at ambient temperatures during rolling, and moderate levels of plastic deformation (at which Bauschinger effect can be neglected for the particular class of polymeric materials studied here), greatly simplifies the task of material modeling and allows us to deploy a computationally efficient, yet accurate, finite deformation rate-independent elastic-plastic material behavior model (with inclusion of isotropic-hardening) for analyzing the rolling of these polymeric films. The interfacial behavior between the roller and polymer surfaces is modeled using Coulombic friction; consistent with the rate-independent behavior. The finite deformation elastic-plastic material behavior based on (i) the additive decomposition of stretching tensor (D = De + Dp, i.e. a hypoelastic formulation) with incrementally objective time integration and, (ii) multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient (F = FeFp) into elastic and plastic parts, are programmed and carried out for cold-rolling within ABAQUS Explicit. Predictions from both the formulations, i.e., hypoelastic and multiplicative decomposition, exhibit a close match. We find that no specialized hyperlastic/visco-plastic model is required to describe the behavior of the blend of polymeric films, under the conditions described here, thereby speeding up the computation process .

Keywords: Polymer Plasticity, Bonding, Deformation Induced Mobility, Rolling

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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Authors: Marko Spasojevic, Ying Hei Chui, Yuxiang Chen

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Increasing the level of exterior insulation in residential buildings is a popular way for improving the thermal characteristic of building enclosure and reducing heat loss. However, the layout and properties of materials composing the wall have a great effect on moisture accumulation within the wall cavity, long-term durability of a wall as well as the structural performance. A one-dimensional hygrothermal modeling has been performed to investigate moisture condensation risks and the drying capacity of standard 2×4 and 2×6 light wood-frame wall assemblies including exterior low-permeance extruded polystyrene (XPS) insulation. The analysis considered two different wall configurations whereby the rigid insulation board was placed either between Oriented Strand Board (OSB) sheathing and the stud or outboard to the structural sheathing. The thickness of the insulation varied between 0 mm and 50 mm and the analysis has been conducted for eight different locations in Canada, covering climate zone 4 through zone 8. Results show that the wall configuration with low-permeance insulation inserted between the stud and OSB sheathing accumulates more moisture within the stud cavity, compared to the assembly with the same insulation placed exterior to the sheathing. On the other hand, OSB moisture contents of the latter configuration were markedly higher. Consequently, the analysis of hygrothermal performance investigated and compared moisture accumulation in both the OSB and stud cavity. To investigate the structural performance of the wall and the effect of soft insulation layer inserted between the sheathing and framing, forty nail connection specimens were tested. Results have shown that both the connection strength and stiffness experience a significant reduction as the insulation thickness increases. These results will be compared with results from a full-scale shear wall tests in order to investigate if the capacity of shear walls with insulated sheathing would experience a similar reduction in structural capacities.

Keywords: hygrothermal analysis, insulated sheathing, moisture performance, nail joints, wood shear wall

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Authors: Amr Mohamadien, Ali Imanpour, Sylvester Agbo, Nader Yoosef-Ghodsi, Samer Adeeb

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The fracture toughness resistance curve (e.g., J-R curve and crack tip opening displacement (CTOD) or δ-R curve) is important in facilitating strain-based design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. This paper aims to present laboratory experimental data to characterize the fracture behavior of pipeline steel. The influential parameters associated with the fracture of API 5L X52 pipeline steel, including different initial crack sizes, were experimentally investigated for a single notch edge bend (SENB). A total of 9 small-scale specimens with different crack length to specimen depth ratios were conducted and tested using single edge notch bending (SENB). ASTM E1820 and BS7448 provide testing procedures to construct the fracture resistance curve (Load-CTOD, CTOD-R, or J-R) from test results. However, these procedures are limited by standard specimens’ dimensions, displacement gauges, and calibration curves. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents the use of small-scale specimens and a 3D-digital image correlation (DIC) system to extract the parameters required for fracture toughness estimation. Fracture resistance curve parameters in terms of crack mouth open displacement (CMOD), crack tip opening displacement (CTOD), and crack growth length (∆a) were carried out from test results by utilizing the DIC system, and an improved regression fitting resistance function (CTOD Vs. crack growth), or (J-integral Vs. crack growth) that is dependent on a variety of initial crack sizes was constructed and presented. The obtained results were compared to the available results of the classical physical measurement techniques, and acceptable matchings were observed. Moreover, a case study was implemented to estimate the maximum strain value that initiates the stable crack growth. This might be of interest to developing more accurate strain-based damage models. The results of laboratory testing in this study offer a valuable database to develop and validate damage models that are able to predict crack propagation of pipeline steel, accounting for the influential parameters associated with fracture toughness.

Keywords: fracture toughness, crack propagation in pipeline steels, CTOD-R, strain-based damage model

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Authors: Jayanta Bora, Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal, Sangeeta Kaul

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Background: It is important for targeted interventions to consider vulnerabilities of female sex workers (FSWs) such as poverty, work-related mobility and literacy for effective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention. This paper examines the association between vulnerability and behavioural outcomes among FSWs in Thane district, Maharashtra under USAID PHFI-PIPPSE project. Methods: Data were used from the Behavioural Tracking Survey, a cross-sectional behavioural study conducted in 2015 with 503 FSWs randomly selected from 12 TI-NGOs which were functioning and providing services to FSWs in Thane district prior to April 2014 in Thane district of Maharashtra. We have created the “vulnerability index”, a composite index of literacy, factors of dependence (alternative livelihood options, current debt), and aspects of sex work (mobility and duration in sex work) as a dependent variable. The key independent measures used were program exposure to intervention, service uptake, self-confidence, and self-identity. Bi-variate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine the study objectives. Results: A higher proportion of FSWs who were in the age-group 18–25 years from brothel/street /home/ lodge-based were categorized as highly vulnerable to HIV risk as compared to bar-based sex worker (74.1% versus 59.8%, P,0.002); regression analysis highlighted lower odds of vulnerability among FSWs who were aware of services and visited NGO clinic for medical check-up and counselling for STI [AOR= 0.092, 95% CI 0.018-0.460; P,0.004], However, lower odds of vulnerability on confident in supporting fellow sex worker in crisis [AOR= 0.601, 95% CI 0.476-0.758; P, 0.000] and were able to turn away clients when they refused to use a condom during sex [AOR= 0.524, 95% CI 0.342-0.802; P, 0.003]. Conclusion: The results highlight that FSWs associated with TIs and getting services are less vulnerable and highly empowered. As a result of behavioural change communication and other services provided by TIs, FSWs were able to successfully negotiate about condom use with their clients and manage solidarity in the crisis situation for fellow FSWs. Therefore, it is evident from study paper that TI prevention programs may transform the lives of masses considerably and may open a window of opportunity to infuse the information and awareness about HIV risk.

Keywords: female sex worker, HIV prevention, HIV service uptake, vulnerability

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: Armando T. Zúñiga

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As the number of English Language Learners (ELLs) in public schools continues to grow, so does the achievement gap between ELLs and other student populations. In an effort to support classroom teachers with effective instructional strategies for this student population, many districts have created instructional coaching positions specifically to support classroom teachers of ELLs—ELL Teachers on Special Assignment (ELL TOSAs). This study employed a gap analysis framework to the ELL TOSA professional support program in one California school district to examine knowledge, motivation, and organizational influences (KMO) on the ELL TOSAs’ goal of supporting classroom teachers of ELLs. Three themes emerged as a result of data analysis. First, there was evidence to illustrate the interaction between knowledge and the organization. Data from ELL TOSAs indicated an understanding of the role that collaboration plays in coaching and how to operationalize it in their support of teachers. Further, all of the ELL TOSAs indicated they have received professional development on effective strategies for instructional coaching. Additionally, a large percentage of the ELL TOSAs indicated a knowledge of modeling as an effective coaching practice. Accordingly, all of the ELL TOSAs indicated that they had knowledge of feedback as an effective coaching strategy. However, there was not sufficient evidence to support that they learned the latter two strategies through professional development. A second theme surfaced as there was evidence to illustrate an interaction between motivation and the organization. Some ELL TOSAs indicated that their sense of self-efficacy was affected by conflicting roles and expectations for the job. Most of the ELL TOSAs indicated that their sense of self-efficacy was affected by an increased workload brought about by fiscal decision making. Finally, there was evidence illustrating the interaction between the organization and motivation. The majority of the of ELL TOSAs indicated that there is confusion about how their roles are perceived, leaving the ELL TOSAs to feel that their actions did not contribute to instructional change. In conclusion, five research-based recommendations to support ELL TOSA goal attainment and considerations for future research on instructional coaches for classroom teachers of ELLs are provided.

Keywords: English language development, English language acquisition, language and leadership, language coaching, English language learners, second language acquisition

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Authors: Akhil Teja Kambhampati, Mark A. Hoffman

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In the realm of infectious disease research, airborne viral transmission stands as a paramount concern due to its pivotal role in propagating pathogens within densely populated regions. However, amidst this landscape, the phenomenon of hygroscopic growth within respiratory bioaerosols remains relatively underexplored. Unlike pure water aerosols, the unique composition of respiratory bioaerosols leads to varied evaporation rates and hygroscopic growth patterns, influenced by factors such as ambient humidity, temperature, and airflow. This study addresses this gap by focusing on the behaviors of single respiratory bioaerosol utilizing salinity to induce saliva-like hygroscopic behavior. By employing mass, momentum, and energy equations, the study unveils the intricate interplay between evaporation and hygroscopic growth over time. The numerical model enables temporal analysis of bioaerosol characteristics, including size, temperature, and trajectory. The analysis reveals that due to evaporation, there is a reduction in initial size, which shortens the lifetime and distance traveled. However, when hygroscopic growth begins to influence the bioaerosol size, the rate of size reduction slows significantly. The interplay between evaporation and hygroscopic growth results in bioaerosol size within the inhalation range of humans and prolongs the traveling distance. Findings procured from the analysis are crucial for understanding the spread of infectious diseases, especially in high-risk environments such as healthcare facilities and public transportation systems. By elucidating the nuanced behaviors of respiratory bioaerosols, this study seeks to inform the development of more effective preventative strategies against pathogens propagation in the air, thereby contributing to public health efforts on a global scale.

Keywords: airborne viral transmission, high-risk environments, hygroscopic growth, evaporation, numerical modeling, pathogen propagation, preventative strategies, public health, respiratory bioaerosols

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Authors: Sungeun Hyun, Sooin Lee, Gyewan Moon

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Work-Family Conflict has been an active research area for the past decades. Work-Family Conflict harms individuals and organizations, it is ultimately expected to bring the cost of losses to the company in the long run. WFC has mainly focused on effects of organizational effectiveness and job attitude such as Job Satisfaction, Organizational Commitment, and Turnover Intention variables. This study is different from consequence variable with previous research. For this purpose, we selected the positive job attitude 'Work Engagement' as a consequence of WFC. This research has its primary research purpose in identifying the negative effects of the Work-Family Conflict, and started out from the recognition of the problem that the research on the direct relationship on the influence of the WFC on Work Engagement is lacking. Based on the COR(Conservation of resource theory) and JD-R(Job Demand- Resource model), the empirical study model to examine the negative effects of WFC with Emotional Exhaustion as the link between WFC and Work Engagement was suggested and validated. Also, it was analyzed how much Positive Psychological Capital may buffer the negative effects arising from WFC within this relationship, and the Mediated Moderation model controlling the indirect effect influencing the Work Engagement by the Positive Psychological Capital mediated by the WFC and Emotional Exhaustion was verified. Data was collected by using questionnaires distributed to 500 employees engaged manufacturing, services, finance, IT industry, education services, and other sectors, of which 389 were used in the statistical analysis. The data are analyzed by statistical package, SPSS 21.0, SPSS macro and AMOS 21.0. The hierarchical regression analysis, SPSS PROCESS macro and Bootstrapping method for hypothesis testing were conducted. Results showed that all hypotheses are supported. First, WFC showed a negative effect on Work Engagement. Specifically, WIF appeared to be on more negative effects than FIW. Second, Emotional exhaustion found to mediate the relationship between WFC and Work Engagement. Third, Positive Psychological Capital showed to moderate the relationship between WFC and Emotional Exhaustion. Fourth, the effect of mediated moderation through the integration verification, Positive Psychological Capital demonstrated to buffer the relationship among WFC, Emotional Exhastion, and Work Engagement. Also, WIF showed a more negative effects than FIW through verification of all hypotheses. Finally, we discussed the theoretical and practical implications on research and management of the WFC, and proposed limitations and future research directions of research.

Keywords: emotional exhaustion, positive psychological capital, work engagement, work-family conflict

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Authors: Veronica Kembabazi, Arnold Tigaiza, Juliet Aweko, Charles Opio, Michael Ediau, Elizabeth Ekirapa, Andrew Tusubira, Peter Waiswa

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Background: Digital payments have been branded as key in solving health payment challenges, evidence on their adoptability is still limited especially among Community Health Workers (CHWs), yet vital for ensuring sustainability. We therefore assessed the adoptability of digital payments for CHWs in Wakiso district, Uganda. Methods: In December 2022, we conducted a convergent parallel mixed-methods study among 150 randomly selected CHWs in Wakiso district. Supplementary qualitative data were collected from the Digital payment coordinators as Key Informants (KIs). We adopted the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) framework to assess the adoptability of digital payments among CHWS. Factor analysis was performed to extract composite variables from the original constituting variables. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin statistics were assessed for each construct to determine appropriateness for data reduction. Using logistic regression for multivariate analysis, we assessed the association between adoptability constructs and the CHW intention to use digital payments. Quantitative data was analyzed using STATA, while qualitative data was transcribed verbatim and analyzed using ATLAS.ti software. Results: Overall, 150 respondents were interviewed and nearly all participants (98.0%) had previously received payments through mobile money, a digital-payment method. The majority (52%) of CHWs said they intend to use digital payment modalities. Perceived risk had an 83% negative influence on the adoptability of digital payment modalities (OR= 0.167, p < 0.01), perceived trust had an almost three times positive influence on the adoptability of digital payment modalities (OR= 2.823, p < 0.01). Qualitative interviews showed that most CHWs reported good experiences in their use of digital health payment modalities except for delays associated with mobile money payments. Mobile money was reported to be easy to use, in addition to fostering financial responsibility compared to cash. Conclusion: CHWs in Wakiso district intend to use digital payment modalities, particularly mobile money/e-cash, and the perceived risk of the payment method and trust are key determinants of its adoptability. Synergized efforts by both payment providers and service operators to manage payment delays and identified risks among mobile money operators could attenuate perceived risk and build trust in digital payment modalities.

Keywords: digital health payments, community health workers, adoptability, technology acceptance model

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Authors: Rosa Tsegaye Aga, Xuan Jiang, Pavel Vazquez Faci, Siqing Liu, Simon Rayner, Endalkachew Alemu, Markos Abebe

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of disease globally. In most cases, TB is treatable and curable, but only with the proper treatment. There is a time when drug-resistant TB occurs when bacteria become resistant to the drugs that are used to treat TB. Current strategies to identify drug-resistant TB bacteria are laboratory-based, and it takes a longer time to identify the drug-resistant bacteria and treat the patient accordingly. But machine learning (ML) and data science approaches can offer new approaches to the problem. In this study, we propose to develop an ML-based model to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates in minutes and give the right treatment to the patient immediately. The study has been using the whole genome sequence (WGS) of TB isolates as training data that have been extracted from the NCBI repository and contain different countries’ samples to build the ML models. The reason that different countries’ samples have been included is to generalize the large group of TB isolates from different regions in the world. This supports the model to train different behaviors of the TB bacteria and makes the model robust. The model training has been considering three pieces of information that have been extracted from the WGS data to train the model. These are all variants that have been found within the candidate genes (F1), predetermined resistance-associated variants (F2), and only resistance-associated gene information for the particular drug. Two major datasets have been constructed using these three information. F1 and F2 information have been considered as two independent datasets, and the third information is used as a class to label the two datasets. Five machine learning algorithms have been considered to train the model. These are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random forest (RF), Logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting, and Ada boost algorithms. The models have been trained on the datasets F1, F2, and F1F2 that is the F1 and the F2 dataset merged. Additionally, an ensemble approach has been used to train the model. The ensemble approach has been considered to run F1 and F2 datasets on gradient boosting algorithm and use the output as one dataset that is called F1F2 ensemble dataset and train a model using this dataset on the five algorithms. As the experiment shows, the ensemble approach model that has been trained on the Gradient Boosting algorithm outperformed the rest of the models. In conclusion, this study suggests the ensemble approach, that is, the RF + Gradient boosting model, to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates by outperforming the rest of the models.

Keywords: machine learning, MTB, WGS, drug resistant TB

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Authors: Shelley Harrington

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As a result of increasingly dynamic business environments, the creation and fostering of dynamic capabilities, [those capabilities that enable sustained competitive success despite of dynamism through the awareness and reconfiguration of internal and external competencies], supported by organisational learning [a dynamic capability] has gained increased and prevalent momentum in the research arena. Presenting findings funded by the Economic Social Research Council, this paper investigates the extent to which Senior Management Team (SMT) personality (at the trait and facet level) is associated with the creation of dynamic managerial capabilities at the team level, and effective organisational learning/knowledge sharing within the firm. In doing so, this research highlights the importance of micro-foundations in organisational psychology and specifically dynamic capabilities, a field which to date has largely ignored the importance of psychology in understanding these important and necessary capabilities. Using a direct measure of personality (NEO PI-3) at the trait and facet level across 32 high technology and finance firms in the UK, their CEOs (N=32) and their complete SMTs [N=212], a new measure of dynamic managerial capabilities at the team level was created and statistically validated for use within the work. A quantitative methodology was employed with regression and gap analysis being used to show the empirical foundations of personality being positioned as a micro-foundation of dynamic capabilities. The results of this study found that personality homogeneity within the SMT was required to strengthen the dynamic managerial capabilities of sensing, seizing and transforming, something which was required to reflect strong organisational learning at middle management level [N=533]. In particular, it was found that the greater the difference [t-score gaps] between the personality profiles of a Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and their complete, collective SMT, the lower the resulting self-reported nature of dynamic managerial capabilities. For example; the larger the difference between a CEOs level of dutifulness, a facet contributing to the definition of conscientiousness, and their SMT’s level of dutifulness, the lower the reported level of transforming, a capability fundamental to strategic change in a dynamic business environment. This in turn directly questions recent trends, particularly in upper echelons research highlighting the need for heterogeneity within teams. In doing so, it successfully positions personality as a micro-foundation of dynamic capabilities, thus contributing to recent discussions from within the strategic management field calling for the need to empirically explore dynamic capabilities at such a level.

Keywords: dynamic managerial capabilities, senior management teams, personality, dynamism

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Authors: A. Lianah, B. Peter Sopade, C. Krisantini

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Walikadep/Tetrastigma glabratum (Blume) Planch is a traditional herb that has been used by people of Blumah village; it is believed to have a stimulant effect and ailments for many illnesses. Our survey demonstrated that the people of Blumah village has exploited walikadep from Protected Forest of Mount Prau. More than 10% of 448 households at Blumah village have used walikadep as traditional herb or jamu. Part of the walikadep plants used is the liquid extract of the stem. The population of walikadep is getting scarce and it is rarely found now. The objectives of this study are to examine the stimulant effect of walikadep, to measure growth and exploitation rate of walikadep, and to find ways to effectively propagate the plants, as well as identifying the impact on the environment through field experiments and explorative survey. Stimulant effect was tested using open-field and hole-board test. Data were collected through field observation and experiment, and data were analysed using lab test and Anova. Rate of exploitation and plant growth was measured using Regression analysis; comparison of plant growth in-situ and ex-situ used descriptive analysis. The environmental impact was measured by population structure vegetation analysis method by Shannon Weinner. The study revealed that the walikadep exudates did not have a stimulant effect. Exploitation of walikadep and the long time required to reach harvestable size resulted in the scarcity of the plant in the natural habitat. Plant growth was faster in-situ than ex-situ; and fast growth was obtained from middle part cuttings treated with vermicompost. Biodiversity index after exploitation was higher than before exploitation, possibly due to the toxic and allellopathic effect (phenolics) of the plant. Based on these findings, further research is needed to examine the toxic effects of the leave and stem extract of walikadep and their allelopathic effects. We recommend that people of Blumah village to stop using walikadep as the stimulant. The local people, village government in the regional and central levels, and perhutani should do an integrated efforts to conserve walikadep through Pengamanan Terpadu Konservasi Walikadep Lestari (PTKWL) program, so this population of this plant in the natural habitat can be maintained.

Keywords: utilization, medical plants, traditional, Tetastigma glabratum

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