Search results for: stock market crash

Authors: Mengna Hu

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This paper examines the impact of an anti-speculation tax policy on the trading activities and home price movements in the housing market in Hong Kong. The study focuses on the secondary residential property market where transactions dominate. The policy intervention substantially raised the transaction cost to speculators as well as genuine homeowners who dispose their homes within a certain period. Through the demonstration of structural breaks, our empirical results show that the rise in transaction cost effectively reduced speculative trading activities. However, it accelerated price increase in the small-sized segment by vastly demotivating existing homeowners from trading up to better homes, causing congestion in the lower-end market where the demand from first-time buyers is still strong. Apart from that, by employing regime switching approach, we further show that the unintended consequences are likely to be persistent due to this policy together with other strengthened cooling measures.

Keywords: transaction costs, housing market, structural breaks, regime switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Reza Ferdousi, Reza Safdari, Yadollah Omidi

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Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are main cause of the adverse drug reactions and nature of the functional and molecular complexity of drugs behavior in human body make them hard to prevent and treat. With the aid of new technologies derived from mathematical and computational science the DDIs problems can be addressed with minimum cost and efforts. Market basket analysis is known as powerful method to identify co-occurrence of thing to discover patterns and frequency of the elements. In this research, we used market basket analysis to identify important bio-elements in DDIs occurrence. For this, we collected all known DDIs from DrugBank. The obtained data were analyzed by market basket analysis method. We investigated all drug-enzyme, drug-carrier, drug-transporter and drug-target associations. To determine the importance of the extracted bio-elements, extracted rules were evaluated in terms of confidence and support. Market basket analysis of the over 45,000 known DDIs reveals more than 300 important rules that can be used to identify DDIs, CYP 450 family were the most frequent shared bio-elements. We applied extracted rules over 2,000,000 unknown drug pairs that lead to discovery of more than 200,000 potential DDIs. Analysis of the underlying reason behind the DDI phenomena can help to predict and prevent DDI occurrence. Ranking of the extracted rules based on strangeness of them can be a supportive tool to predict the outcome of an unknown DDI.

Keywords: drug-drug interaction, market basket analysis, rule discovery, important bio-elements

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Authors: Firsan Nova

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The average Indonesian watches 5.5 hours of TV a day. With a population of 242 million people and a Free-to-Air (FTA) TV penetration rate of 56%, that equates to 745 million hours of television watched each day. With such potential, it is no wonder that many companies are now attempting to get into the Pay TV market. Research firm Media Partner Asia has forecast in its study that the number of Indonesian pay-television subscribers will climb from 2.4 million in 2012 to 8.7 million by 2020, with penetration scaling up from 7 percent to 21 percent. Key drivers of market growth, the study says, include macro trends built around higher disposable income and a rising middle class, with leading players continuing to invest significantly in sales, distribution and content. New entrants, in the meantime, will boost overall prospects. This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of Market Attractiveness and the Core Competence on Value Creation and Competitive Advantage and its impact to Business Performance in the pay TV industry in Indonesia. The study using strategic management science approach with the census method in which all members of the population are as sample. Verification method is used to examine the relationship between variables. The unit of analysis in this research is all Indonesian Pay TV business units totaling 19 business units. The unit of observation is the director and managers of each business unit. Hypothesis testing is performed by using statistical Partial Least Square (PLS). The conclusion of the study shows that the market attractiveness affects business performance through value creation and competitive advantage. The appropriate value creation comes from the company ability to optimize its core competence and exploit market attractiveness. Value creation affects competitive advantage. The competitive advantage can be determined based on the company's ability to create value for customers and the competitive advantage has an impact on business performance.

Keywords: market attractiveness, core competence, value creation, competitive advantage, business performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Petra Dilling

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This study examines the market reaction to the publication of integrated reports for a sample of 316 global companies for the reporting year 2018. Applying event study methodology, we find significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) after the publication date. To ensure robust estimation resultsthe three-factor model, according to Fama and French, is used as well as a market-adjusted model, a CAPM and a Frama-French model taking GARCH effects into account. We find a significant positive CAAR after the publication day of the integrated report. Our results suggest that investors react to information provided in the integrated report and that they react differently to the annual financial report. Furthermore, our cross-sectional analysis confirms that companies with a significant positive cumulative average abnormal show certain characteristic. It was found that European companies have a higher likelihood to experience a stronger significant positive market reaction to their integrated report publication.

Keywords: integrated report, event methodology, cumulative abnormal return, sustainability, CAPM

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Authors: Mohamed Deyab

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The global lubricant additives market size was USD 14.35 billion in 2015. The industry is characterized by increasing additive usage in base oil blending for longer service life and performance. These additives improve the viscosity of oil, act as detergents, defoamers, antioxidants, and antiwear agents. Since additives play a significant role in base oil blending and subsequent formulations as they are critical materials in improving specification and performance of oils. Herein, we report on the synthesis and characterization of three imidazolium derivatives and their application as antioxidants, detergents and antiwear agents. The molecular structure and characterizations of these ionic liquids were confirmed by elemental analysis, FTIR, X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and 1HNMR spectroscopy. Thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA), is used to study the degradation and thermal stability of the studied base stock samples. It was found that all the prepared ionic liquids additives have excellent power of dispersion and detergency. The ionic liquids as additives to engine oil reduced the friction (38%) and wear volume (76%) of steel balls. The obtained results show that the ionic liquids have an oxidation inhibitor up to 95%.

Keywords: reused lubricating oil, waste, petroleum, ionic liquids

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Xabier Olaz Moratinos

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Drone navigation is critical, particularly during the initial phases, such as the initial ascension, where pilots may fail due to strong external interferences that could potentially lead to a crash. In this ongoing work, a drone has been successfully trained to perform an ascent of up to 6 meters at speeds with external disturbances pushing it up to 24 mph, with the DQN algorithm managing external forces affecting the system. It has been demonstrated that the system can control its height, position, and stability in all three axes (roll, pitch, and yaw) throughout the process. The learning process is carried out in the Gazebo simulator, which emulates interferences, while ROS is used to communicate with the agent.

Keywords: machine learning, DQN, gazebo, navigation

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Authors: Randy D. Colon

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Through a freedom of information request, data pertaining to Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) households has been obtained from the Chicago Housing Authority, including rent price and number of bedrooms per HCV household, community area, and zip code from 2013 to the first quarter of 2018. Similar data pertaining to the private rental market will be obtained through public records found through the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. The datasets will be analyzed through statistical and mapping software to investigate the potential link between HCV households and distorted rent prices. Quantitative data will be supplemented by qualitative data to investigate the lived experience of Chicago residents. Qualitative data will be collected at community meetings in the Chicago Englewood neighborhood through participation in neighborhood meetings and informal interviews with residents and community leaders. The qualitative data will be used to gain insight on the lived experience of community leaders and residents of the Englewood neighborhood in relation to housing, the rental market, and HCV. While there is an abundance of quantitative data on this subject, this qualitative data is necessary to capture the lived experience of local residents effected by a changing rental market. This topic reflects concerns voiced by members of the Englewood community, and this study aims to keep the community relevant in its findings.

Keywords: Chicago, housing, housing choice voucher program, housing subsidies, rental market

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: Seung Chul Lee, Jooyeong Kim, Ki Ok Ahn, Juok Park

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Background: Injuries caused by motorcycle crashes are one of the major public health burdens leading to high mortality, functional disability. The risk of death among motorcyclists is 30 times greater than that among car drivers, with head injuries the leading cause of death. The motorcycle helmet is crucial protective equipment for motorcyclists. Aims: This study aimed to measure the protective effect of motorcycle helmet use on intracranial injury and mortality and to compare the preventive effect in drivers and passengers. Methods: This is a cross-sessional study based on the Emergency Department (ED)–based Injury In-depth Surveillance (EDIIS) database from 23 EDs in Korea. All of the trauma patients injured in motorcycle crashes between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016 were eligible, excluding cases with unknown helmet use and outcomes. The primary and secondary outcomes were intracranial injury and in-hospital mortality. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of helmet use for study outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders. Using interaction models, we compared the protective effect of helmet use on outcomes across driving status (driver and passenger). Results: Among 17,791 eligible patients, 10,668 (60.0%) patients were wearing helmets at the time of the crash, 2,128 (12.0%) patients had intracranial injuries and 331 (1.9%) patients had in-hospital death. 16,381 (92.1%) patients were drivers and 1410 (7.9%) patients were passengers. 62.6% of drivers and 29.1% of passengers were wearing helmets at the time of the crash. Compared to un-helmeted group, the helmeted group was less likely to have an intracranial injury(8.0% vs. 17.9%, AOR: 0.43 (0.39-0.48)) and in-hospital mortality (1.0% vs. 3.2%, AOR: 0.29 (0.22-0.37)).In the interaction model, AORs (95% CIs) of helmet use for intracranial injury were 0.42 (0.38-0.47) in drivers and 0.61(0.41-0.90) in passengers, respectively. There was a significant preventive effect of helmet use on in-hospital mortality in drivers (AOR: 0.26(0.21–0.34)). Discussion and conclusions: Wearing helmets in motorcycle crashes reduced intracranial injuries and in-hospital mortality. The preventive effect of motorcycle helmet use on intracranial injury was stronger in drivers than in passengers. There was a significant preventive effect of helmet use on in-hospital mortality in driver but not in passengers. Public health efforts to increase motorcycle helmet use are needed to reduce health burden from injuries caused by motorcycle crashes.

Keywords: intracranial injury, helmet, mortality, motorcycle crashes

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Authors: Shanti Swaroop Gupta, Bibekananda Mohapatra, S. K. Chaturvedi, Anand Bohra

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For sustainable development in India, there is an urgent need to follow the principles of industrial symbiosis in the industrial processes, under which the scraps, wastes, or by‐products of one industry can become the raw materials for another. This will not only help in reducing the dependence on natural resources but also help in gaining economic advantage to the industry. Gypsum is one such area in India, where the linear economy model of by-product gypsum utilization has resulted in unutilized legacy phosphogypsum stock of 64.65 million tonnes (mt) at phosphoric acid plants in 2020-21. In the future, this unutilized gypsum stock will increase further due to the expected generation of Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD) gypsum in huge quantities from thermal power plants. Therefore, it is essential to transit from the linear to circular economy in Gypsum in India, which will result in huge environmental as well as ecological benefits. Gypsum is required in many sectors like Construction (Cement industry, gypsum boards, glass fiber reinforced gypsum panels, gypsum plaster, fly ash lime bricks, floor screeds, road construction), agriculture, in the manufacture of Plaster of Paris, pottery, ceramic industry, water treatment processes, manufacture of ammonium sulphate, paints, textiles, etc. The challenges faced in areas of quality, policy, logistics, lack of infrastructure, promotion, etc., for complete utilization of by-product gypsum have been discussed. The untapped potential of by-product gypsum utilization in various sectors like the use of gypsum in agriculture for sodic soil reclamation, utilization of legacy stock in cement industry on mission mode, improvement in quality of by-product gypsum by standardization and usage in building materials industry has been identified. Based on the measures required to tackle the various challenges and utilization of the untapped potential of gypsum, a comprehensive action plan for the transition from linear to the circular economy in gypsum in India has been formulated. The strategies and policy measures required to implement the action plan to achieve a circular economy in Gypsum have been recommended for various government departments. It is estimated that the focused implementation of the proposed action plan would result in a significant decrease in unutilized gypsum legacy stock in the next five years and it would cease to exist by 2027-28 if the proposed action plan is effectively implemented.

Keywords: circular economy, FGD gypsum, India, phosphogypsum

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

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This study investigates the management accountant’s roles that link with the creation of corporate shared value to enable more effective decision-making and improve the information needs of stakeholders. Mixed method is employed to collect using triangulation for credibility. A quantitative approach is employed to conduct a survey of 200 Thai companies providing annual reports in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The results of the study reveal that environmental and social data incorporated in a corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure are based on the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiatives (GRI) at a statistically significant level of 0.01. Environmental and social indicators in CSR are associated with environmental and social data disclosed in the annual report to support stakeholders’ and the public’s interests that are addressed and show that a significant relationship between environmental and social in CSR disclosures and the information in annual reports is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, creating shared value, management accountant’s roles, stock exchange of Thailand

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Authors: Mohammad Hosein Panahi, Naser Yazdani

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we present a technical trading strategy that leverages the FinBERT language model and financial news analysis with a focus on news related to a subset of Nasdaq 100 stocks. Our approach surpasses the baseline Range Break-out strategy in the Bitcoin market, yielding a remarkable 24.8% increase in the win ratio for all Friday trades and an impressive 48.9% surge in short trades specifically on Fridays. Moreover, we conduct rigorous hypothesis testing to establish the statistical significance of these improvements. Our findings underscore considerable potential of our NLP-driven approach in enhancing trading strategies and achieving greater profitability within financial markets.

Keywords: quantitative finance, technical analysis, bitcoin market, NLP, language models, FinBERT, technical trading

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Authors: Peter Ellis

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United States dramatic television in the 21st century is inarguably violent. This violence can be as physical as the gruesome viscera spilled in AMC’s The Walking Dead; it can be as psychological as the suppressive dominance of Tony Soprano over his wife Carmella in HBO’s The Sopranos; and it can sit like shares on the stock market, where investment in violence sits as an economic choice, as with AMC’s Breaking Bad. Violence permeates these narratives, simultaneously threatening and defining the lives of their characters through its use in their relationships. What propels this exploration of humanity through violence is the use of language: the dictation of interaction in an economy in which characters negotiate successful acts of violence, or how they meet with the successful violence of others. Language is the defining force which separates and elucidates characters through conflict, as Slavoj Žižek writes, “it is because of language that we and our neighbours (can) “live in different worlds” even when we live on the same street.” This paper examines three different manifestations that violence takes in US television, specifically through the examples of The Walking Dead, The Sopranos, and Breaking Bad. Through the prism of Žižek’s conception of language as the uniquely human vehicle of violence, I aim to display how these shows sit as expressions of a neo-humanism, in which the complexities of language manipulate violence and define character in the process.

Keywords: violence, humanism, neoliberalism, American television

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Xabier Olaz Moratinos

Abstract:

Drone navigation is critical, particularly during the initial phases, such as the initial ascension, where pilots may fail due to strong external interferences that could potentially lead to a crash. In this ongoing work, a drone has been successfully trained to perform an ascent of up to 6 meters at speeds with external disturbances pushing it up to 24 mph, with the DQN algorithm managing external forces affecting the system. It has been demonstrated that the system can control its height, position, and stability in all three axes (roll, pitch, and yaw) throughout the process. The learning process is carried out in the Gazebo simulator, which emulates interferences, while ROS is used to communicate with the agent.

Keywords: machine learning, DQN, Gazebo, navigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Ismail S. Bostanci, Ebru Akkaya

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Microalgae-derived biodiesel, fertilizer or industrial chemicals' production with wastewater has great potential. Especially water from a municipal wastewater treatment plant is a very important nutrient source for biofuel production. Microalgae biomass production in open ponds system is lower cost culture systems. There are many hurdles for commercial algal biomass production in large scale. One of the important technical bottlenecks for microalgae production in open system is culture contamination. The algae culture contaminants can generally be described as invading organisms which could cause pond crash. These invading organisms can be competitors, parasites, and predators. Contamination is unavoidable in open systems. Potential contaminant organisms are already inoculated if wastewater is utilized for algal biomass cultivation. Especially, it is important to control contaminants to retain in acceptable level in order to reach true potential of algal biofuel production. There are several contamination management methods in algae industry, ranging from mechanical, chemical, biological and growth condition change applications. However, none of them are accepted as a suitable contamination control method. This experiment describes an innovative contamination control method, 'Recirculated Sedimentation Method', to manage contamination to avoid pond cash. The method can be used for the production of algal biofuel, fertilizer etc. and algal wastewater treatment. To evaluate the performance of the method on algal culture, an experiment was conducted for 90 days at a lab-scale raceway (60 L) reactor with the use of non-sterilized and non-filtered wastewater (secondary effluent and centrate of anaerobic digestion). The application of the method provided the following; removing contaminants (predators and diatoms) and other debris from reactor without discharging the culture (with microscopic evidence), increasing raceway tank’s suspended solids holding capacity (770 mg L-1), increasing ammonium removal rate (29.83 mg L-1 d-1), decreasing algal and microbial biofilm formation on inner walls of reactor, washing out generated nitrifier from reactor to prevent ammonium consumption.

Keywords: contamination control, microalgae culture contamination, pond crash, predator control

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Antonia Müller, Svend Reuse

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The Brexit referendum in June 2016 led to different publications analysing potential consequences for European and British insurance companies under the European Passport. This study addresses a research gap, regarding the measures taken by insurance companies based in the United Kingdom and thus on structural changes to the European insurance market by an innovative structured Solvency and Financial Condition Report content analysis. In scope are all insurance companies based in the United Kingdom, that fall under the Solvency II supervisory regime. The results show that the majority of British Solvency II insurance companies in scope, conducting cross-border business to the European Union, have applied and reported measures to be able to continue operating this cross-border business after Brexit. In addition, the study shows that 34 new insurance companies based in the European Union were established as a result of Brexit, indicating structural changes to the European insurance market.

Keywords: brexit, europe, insurance market, solvency and financial condition repot, structural changes

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Authors: Sultan Haji Shube

Abstract:

Woodland ecosystems of semiarid rift valley of Ethiopia play a significant role in climate change mitigation by sequestering and storing more carbon. This study was conducted in Gidabo river sub-basins southeastern rift-valley escarpment of Ethiopian. It aims to estimate biomass and carbon stocks of woodlands and its implications for climate change mitigation. A total of 44 sampling plots (900m²each) were systematically laid in the woodland for vegetation and environmental data collection. A composite soil sample was taken from five locations main plot. Both disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were taken at two depths using soil auger and core-ring sampler, respectively. Allometric equation was used to estimate aboveground biomass while root-to-shoot ratio method and Walkley-Black method were used for belowground biomass and SOC, respectively. Result revealed that the totals of the study site was 17.05t/ha, of which 14.21t/ha was belonging for AGB and 2.84t/ha was for BGB. Moreover, 2224.7t/ha total carbon stocks was accumulated with an equivalent carbon dioxide of 8164.65t/ha. This study also revealed that more carbon was accumulated in the soil than the biomass. Both aboveground and belowground carbon stocks were decreased with increase in altitude while SOC stocks were increased. The AGC and BGC stocks were higher in the lower slope classes. SOC stocks were higher in the higher slope classes than in the lower slopes. Higher carbon stock was obtained from woody plants that had a DBH measure of >16cm and situated at plots facing northwest. Overall, study results will add up information about carbon stock potential of the woodland that will serve as a base line scenario for further research, policy makers and land managers.

Keywords: allometric equation, climate change mitigation, soil organic carbon, woodland

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

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The objectives of this research were to study the influence of market orientation and supply chain management on competitive capability in case of the automotive parts industry in Thailand. This study employed by survey research and questionnaire was used to collect the data from 400 entrepreneurs in the automotive parts industry in Thailand. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The results revealed that the overall dimensions of marketing orientation, namely, responsiveness, intelligence generation, and intelligence dissemination were rated at the high level. As well, the overall dimensions of supply chain management, namely, collaboration, communication, trust, and commitment were also rated at the high level. Furthermore, the hypothesis testing results showed that supply chain management and market orientation affected competitive capability of the automotive parts industry in Thailand which these two variables could be combined to predict competitive capability of the automotive parts industry in Thailand by 31.5 percent.

Keywords: automotive parts industry, competitive capability, market orientation, supply chain management

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Authors: Hina Munir Abbasi

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The current paper examines the relationship and diversification ability of Islamic stock indices /conventional stocks indices and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs).To represent conditional dependency between stocks and REITs in a more realistic way, new modeling technique, time-varying copula with switching dependence is used. It represents reliance structure more accurately and realistically than a single copula regime as dependence may alter between positive and negative correlation regimes with time. The fluctuating behavior of markets has significant impact on economic variables; especially the downward trend during crisis. Overall addition of Real Estate Investment Trust in stocks portfolio reduces risks and provide better diversification benefit. Results varied depending upon the circumstances of the country. REITs provides better diversification benefits for Islamic Stocks, when both markets are bearish and can provide hedging benefit for conventional stocks portfolio.

Keywords: conventional stocks, real estate investment trust, copula, diversification, risk spillover, safe heaven

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Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

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Motivation: The Nigerian economy has seen significant macroeconomic instability, fuelled mostly by an overreliance on fluctuating oil revenues. The rising disparity between tax receipts and government spending in Nigeria necessitates government borrowing to fund the anticipated pace of economic growth. Rising public debt and fiscal sustainability are limiting the government's ability to invest in key infrastructure that promotes private investment and growth in Nigeria. Objective: This paper fills an empirical research vacuum by examining the impact of public debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria, given the significance of fiscal stability in decreasing poverty and the constraints that an unsustainable debt burden imposes on it. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2022 exposed to conventional and structural breaks stationarity tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation approach were adopted for this study. Results: The results reveal that domestic debt stock, debt service payment, foreign reserve stock, exchange rate, and private investment all had a major adverse effect on fiscal stability in the long and short run, corroborating the debt overhang and crowding-out hypothesis. External debt stock, prime lending rate, and degree of trade openness, which boosted fiscal stability in the long run, had a major detrimental effect on fiscal stability in the short run, whereas foreign direct investment inflows had an important beneficial impact on fiscal stability in both the long and short run. Implications: The results indicate that fiscal measures that inspire domestic resource mobilization, sustainable debt management techniques, and dependence on external debt to boost deficit financing will improve fiscal stability and drive growth.

Keywords: ARDL co-integration, debt overhang, debt servicing, fiscal stability, public debt

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Authors: Mayank Mishra

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Market Economy can be broadly defined as economic system where supply and demand regulate the economy and in which decisions pertaining to production, consumption, allocation of resources, price and competition are made by collective actions of individuals or organisations with limited government intervention. On the other hand Market Society is one where instead of the economy being embedded in social relations, social relations are embedded in the economy. A market economy becomes a market society when all of land, labour and capital are commodified. This transition also has effect on people’s attitude and values. Such a transition commence impacting the non-material aspect of life such as public education, public health and the like. The inception of neoliberal policies in non-market norms altered the nature of social goods like public health that raised the following questions. What impact would the transition to a market society make on people in terms of accessibility to public health? Is healthcare a commodity that can be subjected to a competitive market place? What kind of private investments are being made in public health and how do private investments alter the nature of a public good like healthcare? This research problem will employ empirical-analytical approach that includes deductive reasoning which will be using the existing concept of market economy and market society as a foundation for the analytical framework and the hypotheses to be examined. The research also intends to inculcate the naturalistic elements of qualitative methodology which refers to studying of real world situations as they unfold. The research will analyse the existing literature available on the subject. Concomitantly the research intends to access the primary literature which includes reports from the World Bank, World Health Organisation (WHO) and the different departments of respective ministries of the countries for the analysis. This paper endeavours to highlight how the issue of commodification of public health would lead to perpetual increase in its inaccessibility leading to stratification of healthcare services where one can avail the better services depending on the extent of one’s ability to pay. Since the fundamental maxim of private investments is to churn out profits, these kinds of trends would pose a detrimental effect on the society at large perpetuating the lacuna between the have and the have-nots.The increasing private investments, both, domestic and foreign, in public health sector are leading to increasing inaccessibility of public health services. Despite the increase in various public health schemes the quality and impact of government public health services are on a continuous decline.

Keywords: commodity, India and Pakistan, market society, public health

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Authors: Abraham Castellanos, Christophe Durville, Sophie Echenim

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In this article, a portfolio optimization problem is performed in a Solvency II context: it illustrates how advanced optimization techniques can help to tackle complex operational pain points around the monitoring, control, and stability of Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The market SCR of a portfolio is calculated as a combination of SCR sub-modules. These sub-modules are the results of stress-tests on interest rate, equity, property, credit and FX factors, as well as concentration on counter-parties. The market SCR is non convex and non differentiable, which does not make it a natural optimization criteria candidate. In the SCR formulation, correlations between sub-modules are fixed, whereas risk-driven portfolio allocation is usually driven by the dynamics of the actual correlations. Implementing a portfolio construction approach that is efficient on both a regulatory and economic standpoint is not straightforward. Moreover, the challenge for insurance portfolio managers is not only to achieve a minimal SCR to reduce non-invested capital but also to ensure stability of the SCR. Some optimizations have already been performed in the literature, simplifying the standard formula into a quadratic function. But to our knowledge, it is the first time that the standard formula of the market SCR is used in an optimization problem. Two solvers are combined: a bundle algorithm for convex non- differentiable problems, and a BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb- Shanno)-SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm, to cope with non-convex cases. A market SCR minimization is then performed with historical data. This approach results in significant reduction of the capital requirement, compared to a classical Markowitz approach based on the historical volatility. A comparative analysis of different optimization models (equi-risk-contribution portfolio, minimizing volatility portfolio and minimizing value-at-risk portfolio) is performed and the impact of these strategies on risk measures including market SCR and its sub-modules is evaluated. A lack of diversification of market SCR is observed, specially for equities. This was expected since the market SCR strongly penalizes this type of financial instrument. It was shown that this direct effect of the regulation can be attenuated by implementing constraints in the optimization process or minimizing the market SCR together with the historical volatility, proving the interest of having a portfolio construction approach that can incorporate such features. The present results are further explained by the Market SCR modelling.

Keywords: financial risk, numerical optimization, portfolio management, solvency capital requirement

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Authors: Bhakti Chitale

Abstract:

Mumbai city, which is the business capital of India and one of the most crowded cities in the world, holds the biggest slum in Asia. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) occupies an area of 4035 sq.km. with a population of 22.8 million people. This population is mostly urban with 91% of this population living in areas of Municipal Corporations and Councils. Another 3% live in Census Towns. The region has 9 Municipal Corporations, 8 Municipal councils, and around 1000 villages. On the one hand MMR reflects the highest contribution to the Nations overall economy and on the other hand it shows the horrible and intolerable picture of about 2 million people, who are living in slums/without even slum with totally unhygienic conditions and with total loss of hope. The generations are about to get affected adversely if the solution is not worked out. This study is an attempt towards working out the solution. Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) is state government's authority, specially formed to govern the development of MMR. MMRDA is engaged in long term planning, promotion of new growth centres, implementation of strategic projects and financing infrastructure development. While preparing the master plan for MMR for next 20 years MMRDA conducted a detail study regarding Housing scenario in MMR and possible options for improvement. The author was the in charge officer for the said assignment. This paper puts light on the interesting outcomes of the research study, which ranges from the adverse effects of government policies, automatic responses of housing market, effects on planning processes, and overall changing needs of housing patterns in the world due to changes in the social mechanism. It alarms the urban planners who usually focus on smart infrastructure development, about allied future dangers. This housing study will explain the complexities, realities and needs of innovations in the housing policies all over the world. The paper will explain further few success stories and failure stories of government initiatives with reasons. It gives the clear idea about the differences in needs of housing for people from different economic groups and direct and indirect market pressures on low cost housing. Magical phenomenon came in front like a large percentage of vacant houses is present in spite of the huge need. Housing market gets affected by the developments or any other physical and financial changes taking place in the nearby areas or cities, also by changes in cities which are located far from the region and also by the international investments or policy changes. Instead of just depending on governments actions in case of generation of affordable housing, it becomes equally important to make the housing markets automatically generate such stock and still make them sustainable is the aim of all the movement. In summary, we may say that the paper will sequentially elaborate the complete dynamics of housing in one of the most crowded urban area in the world that is Mumbai Metropolitan Region, with a lot of data, analysis, case studies, and recommendations.

Keywords: Mumbai India, slum housing, region planning, market recommendations

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Authors: Yi-Min Lan, Hung-Wen Cheng, Hsuan-Ling Chang, Jou-Ping Yu

Abstract:

The study applies machine learning models to construct momentum strategies and utilizes the information coefficient as an indicator for selecting stocks with strong and weak momentum characteristics. Through this approach, the study has built investment portfolios capable of generating superior returns and conducted a thorough analysis. Compared to existing research on momentum strategies, machine learning is incorporated to capture non-linear interactions. This approach enhances the conventional stock selection process, which is often impeded by difficulties associated with timeliness, accuracy, and efficiency due to market risk factors. The study finds that implementing bidirectional momentum strategies outperforms unidirectional ones, and momentum factors with longer observation periods exhibit stronger correlations with returns. Optimizing the number of stocks in the portfolio while staying within a certain threshold leads to the highest level of excess returns. The study presents a novel framework for momentum strategies that enhances and improves the operational aspects of asset management. By introducing innovative financial technology applications to traditional investment strategies, this paper can demonstrate significant effectiveness.

Keywords: information coefficient, machine learning, momentum, portfolio, return prediction

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Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

Abstract:

This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

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Authors: Liudmila A.Guzikova

Abstract:

Being federative state Russia includes more than 80 subjects which are widely diverse by climatic conditions, demographic characteristics, cultural traditions, intensity of migration, economic development and investment attraction and other parameters. Now, in the regions of the country all forms of housing problem are present - housing mismatch to sanitary and hygienic standards, overcrowding, forced residence in financially burdensome housing, homelessness, -although the extent of these symptoms varies widely. Heterogeneity of regional conditions in combination with specifics of regional housing situation requires to concentrate the study of housing problem on the regional level. Traditionally housing market and mortgage are considered as the instruments of housing problem solving. The question arises how the housing market and mortgage market contribute to solving the housing problem in the regions of Russia. Though the purchase of dwelling in ownership should not be regarded as a universal method of the housing problem solving, the purchase of dwelling both by own funds or by use of mortgage can reduce the problem and enhance public satisfaction of living conditions. The aim of the study is to identify differences and similarities in the development of regional housing markets and mortgage lending in the regions of Russia and to evaluate their impact on the status of the housing problem. To achieve the aim of the study the methods of correlation and regression analysis are used. The data of federal statistics constitutes the information base of research. The results of the study contribute to better understanding of the interrelations in housing sphere and can be used to work out social and economic development programs in the regions.

Keywords: housing market, housing problem, mortgage, regional economy

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Authors: Vittorio Astarita, Giuseppe Guido, Vincenzo Pasquale Giofre, Alessandro Vitale

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Traffic microsimulation has been used extensively to evaluate consequences of different traffic planning and control policies in terms of travel time delays, queues, pollutant emissions, and every other common measured performance while at the same time traffic safety has not been considered in common traffic microsimulation packages as a measure of performance for different traffic scenarios. Vehicle conflict techniques that were introduced at intersections in the early traffic researches carried out at the General Motor laboratory in the USA and in the Swedish traffic conflict manual have been applied to vehicles trajectories simulated in microscopic traffic simulators. The concept is that microsimulation can be used as a base for calculating the number of conflicts that will define the safety level of a traffic scenario. This allows engineers to identify unsafe road traffic maneuvers and helps in finding the right countermeasures that can improve safety. Unfortunately, most commonly used indicators do not consider conflicts between single vehicles and roadside obstacles and barriers. A great number of vehicle crashes take place with roadside objects or obstacles. Only some recent proposed indicators have been trying to address this issue. This paper introduces a new procedure based on the simulation of potential crash events for the evaluation of safety levels in microsimulation traffic scenarios, which takes into account also potential crashes with roadside objects and barriers. The procedure can be used to define new conflict indicators. The proposed simulation procedure generates with the random perturbation of vehicle trajectories a set of potential crashes which can be evaluated accurately in terms of DeltaV, the energy of the impact, and/or expected number of injuries or casualties. The procedure can also be applied to real trajectories giving birth to new surrogate safety performance indicators, which can be considered as “simulation-based”. The methodology and a specific safety performance indicator are described and applied to a simulated test traffic scenario. Results indicate that the procedure is able to evaluate safety levels both at the intersection level and in the presence of roadside obstacles. The procedure produces results that are expressed in the same unity of measure for both vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to roadside object conflicts. The total energy for a square meter of all generated crash can be used and is shown on the map, for the test network, after the application of a threshold to evidence the most dangerous points. Without any detailed calibration of the microsimulation model and without any calibration of the parameters of the procedure (standard values have been used), it is possible to identify dangerous points. A preliminary sensitivity analysis has shown that results are not dependent on the different energy thresholds and different parameters of the procedure. This paper introduces a specific new procedure and the implementation in the form of a software package that is able to assess road safety, also considering potential conflicts with roadside objects. Some of the principles that are at the base of this specific model are discussed. The procedure can be applied on common microsimulation packages once vehicle trajectories and the positions of roadside barriers and obstacles are known. The procedure has many calibration parameters and research efforts will have to be devoted to make confrontations with real crash data in order to obtain the best parameters that have the potential of giving an accurate evaluation of the risk of any traffic scenario.

Keywords: road safety, traffic, traffic safety, traffic simulation

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Authors: Lourenco Camnahas, Eileen Willis, Greg Fisher, Jessie Gunson, Pascale Dettwiller, Charlene Thornton

Abstract:

Stock-out of pharmaceuticals is a common issue at all level of health services in Timor-Leste, a small post-conflict country. This lead to the research questions: what are the current methods used to quantify pharmaceutical supplies; what factors contribute to the on-going pharmaceutical stock-out? The study examined factors that influence the pharmaceutical supply chain system. Methodology: Privett and Goncalvez dependency model has been adopted for the design of the qualitative interviews. The model examines pharmaceutical supply chain management at three management levels: management of individual pharmaceutical items, health facilities, and health systems. The interviews were conducted in order to collect information on inventory management, logistics management information system (LMIS) and the provision of pharmaceuticals. Andersen' behavioural model for healthcare utilization also informed the interview schedule, specifically factors linked to environment (healthcare system and external environment) and the population (enabling factors). Forty health professionals (bureaucrats, clinicians) and six senior officers from a United Nations Agency, a global multilateral agency and a local non-governmental organization were interviewed on their perceptions of factors (healthcare system/supply chain and wider environment) impacting on stock out. Additionally, policy documents for the entire healthcare system, along with population data were collected. Findings: An analysis using Pozzebon’s critical interpretation identified a range of difficulties within the system from poor coordination to failure to adhere to policy guidelines along with major difficulties with inventory management, quantification, forecasting, and budgetary constraints. Weak logistics management information system, lack of capacity in inventory management, monitoring and supervision are additional organizational factors that also contributed to the issue. There were various methods of quantification of pharmaceuticals applied in the government sector, and non-governmental organizations. Lack of reliable data is one of the major problems in the pharmaceutical provision. Global Fund has the best quantification methods fed by consumption data and malaria cases. There are other issues that worsen stock-out: political intervention, work ethic and basic infrastructure such as unreliable internet connectivity. Major issues impacting on pharmaceutical quantification have been identified. However, current data collection identified limitations within the Andersen model; specifically, a failure to take account of predictors in the healthcare system and the environment (culture/politics/social. The next step is to (a) compare models used by three non-governmental agencies with the government model; (b) to run the Andersen explanatory model for pharmaceutical expenditure for 2 to 5 drug items used by these three development partners in order to see how it correlates with the present model in terms of quantification and forecasting the needs; (c) to repeat objectives (a) and (b) using the government model; (d) to draw a conclusion about the strength.

Keywords: inventory management, pharmaceutical forecasting and quantification, pharmaceutical stock-out, pharmaceutical supply chain management

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