Search results for: numerical weather prediction

Authors: Gozde Inal Kiziltepe, Ozgun Uyanik

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There is growing evidence that socioeconomic (SES)-related differences in mathematical knowledge primarily start in early childhood period. Preschoolers from low-income families are likely to perform substantially worse in mathematical knowledge than their counterparts from middle and higher income families. The differences are seen on a wide range of recognizing written numerals, counting, adding and subtracting, and comparing numerical magnitudes. Early differences in numerical knowledge have a permanent effect childrens’ mathematical knowledge in other grades. In this respect, analyzing the effect of number board game on the number knowledge of 48-60 month-old children from disadvantaged low-income families constitutes the main objective of the study. Participants were the 71 preschoolers from a childcare center which served low-income urban families. Children were randomly assigned to the number board condition or to the color board condition. The number board condition included 35 children and the color board game condition included 36 children. Both board games were 50 cm long and 30 cm high; had ‘The Great Race’ written across the top; and included 11 horizontally arranged, different colored squares of equal sizes with the leftmost square labeled ‘Start’. The numerical board had the numbers 1–10 in the rightmost 10 squares; the color board had different colors in those squares. A rabbit or a bear token were presented to children for selecting, and on each trial spun a spinner to determine whether the token would move one or two spaces. The number condition spinner had a ‘1’ half and a ‘2’ half; the color condition spinner had colors that matched the colors of the squares on the board. Children met one-on-one with an experimenter for four 15- to 20-min sessions within a 2-week period. In the first and fourth sessions, children were administered identical pretest and posttest measures of numerical knowledge. All children were presented three numerical tasks and one subtest presented in the following order: counting, numerical magnitude comparison, numerical identification and Count Objects – Circle Number Probe subtest of Early Numeracy Assessment. In addition, same numerical tasks and subtest were given as a follow-up test four weeks after the post-test administration. Findings obtained from the study; showed that there was a meaningful difference between scores of children who played a color board game in favor of children who played number board game.

Keywords: low income, numerical board game, numerical knowledge, preschool education

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Authors: Yasser Shabana, Khaled Ghoneem, Nehal Arafat, Younes Rashad, Dalia Aseel, Bruce Fitt, Aiming Qi, Benjamine Richard

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Providing food for more than 100 million people is one of Egypt's main challenges facing development. The overall goal is to formulate strategies to enhance food security in light of population growth. Two hundred samples of maize grains from 25 governates were collected. For the detection of seed-borne fungi, the deep-freezing blotter method (DFB) and washing method (ISTA 1999) were used. A total of 41 fungal species was recovered from maize seed samples. Weather data from 30 stations scattered all over Egypt and covering the major maize growing areas were obtained. Canonical correspondence analysis of data for the obtained fungal genera with temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, or solar radiation revealed that relative humidity, temperature and wind speed were the most influential weather variables.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, maize, seed-borne fungi

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Authors: S. Belhour, A. K. Ferouani, C. Azizi

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In recent years, a considerable effort (experience, numerical simulation, and theoretical prediction models) has characterised by high efficiency and low cost. Then an improved physics analytical model for simulating is proposed. The performance of GaAs MESFETs has been developed for use in device design for high frequency. This model is based on mathematical analysis, and a new approach for the standard model is proposed, this approach allowed to conceive applicable model for MESFET’s operating in the turn-one or pinch-off region and valid for the short-channel and the long channel MESFET’s in which the two dimensional potential distribution contributed by the depletion layer under the gate is obtained by conventional approximation. More ever, comparisons between the analytical models with different values of mobility are proposed, and a good agreement is obtained.

Keywords: analytical, gallium arsenide, MESFET, mobility, models

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Authors: Rehan Waheed, Abdul Shakoor

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Distortion produced during welding of thin metal plates is a problem in many industries. The purpose of this research was to study distortion produced during welding in 2mm Mild Steel plate by simulating the welding process using Finite Element Analysis. Simulation of welding process requires a couple field transient analyses. At first a transient thermal analysis is performed and the temperature obtained from thermal analysis is used as input in structural analysis to find distortion. An actual weld sample is prepared and the weld distortion produced is measured. The simulated and actual results were in quite agreement with each other and it has been found that there is profound deflection at center of plate. Temperature dependent material properties play significant role in prediction of weld distortion. The results of this research can be used for prediction and control of weld distortion in large steel structures by changing different weld parameters.

Keywords: welding simulation, FEA, welding distortion, temperature dependent mechanical properties

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Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, William X. S. Wong

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Corporate credit rating prediction is one of the most important topics, which has been studied by researchers in the last decade. Over the last decade, researchers are pushing the limit to enhance the exactness of the corporate credit rating prediction model by applying several data-driven tools including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) has been widely applied due to its good predictability. However, heuristics, for example, parameters of a kernel function, appropriate feature and instance subset, has become the main reason for the critics on MSVM, as they have dictate the MSVM architectural variables. This study presents a hybrid MSVM model that is intended to optimize all the parameter such as feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameter. Our model adopts genetic algorithm (GA) to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of MSVM.

Keywords: corporate credit rating prediction, Feature selection, genetic algorithms, instance selection, multiclass support vector machines

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Authors: Abdelkader Hocine, Abdelhakim Maizia

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The exponential growth of reinforced fibers composite materials use has prompted researchers to step up their work on the prediction of their reliability. Owing to differences between the properties of the materials used for the composite, the manufacturing processes, the load combinations and types of environment, the prediction of the reliability of composite materials has become a primary task. Through failure criteria, TSAI-WU and the maximum stress, the reliability of multilayer tubular structures under pressure is the subject of this paper, where the failure probability of is estimated by the method of Monte Carlo.

Keywords: composite, design, monte carlo, tubular structure, reliability

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Authors: Nassima Sotehi

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This article presents experimental and numerical results concerning the thermal properties of the porous materials used as heat insulator in the buildings sector. Initially, the thermal conductivity of three types of studied walls (classic concrete, concrete with cork aggregate and polystyrene concrete) was measured in experiments by the method of the boxes. Then a numerical modeling of the heat and mass transfers which occur within porous materials was applied to these walls. This work shows the influence of the presence of water in building materials on their thermophysical properties, as well as influence of the nature of materials and dosage of fibers introduced within these materials on the thermal and mass transfers.

Keywords: modeling, porous media, thermal materials, thermal properties

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this paper, a nonlinear dynamical system is presented. This system is a bilinear class. The bilinear systems are very important kind of nonlinear systems because they have many applications in real life. They are used in biology, chemistry, manufacturing, engineering, and economics where linear models are ineffective or inadequate. They have also been recently used to analyze and forecast weather conditions. Bilinear systems have three advantages: First, they define many problems which have a great applied importance. Second, they give us approximations to nonlinear systems. Thirdly, they have a rich geometric and algebraic structures, which promises to be a fruitful field of research for scientists and applications. The type of nonlinearity that is treated and analyzed consists of bilinear interaction between the states vectors and the system input. By using some properties of the tensor product, these systems can be transformed to linear systems. But, here we discuss the nonlinearity when the state vector is multiplied by itself. So, this model will be able to handle evolutions according to the Lotka-Volterra models or the Lorenz weather models, thus enabling a wider and more flexible application of such models. Here we apply by using an estimator to estimate temperatures. The results prove the efficiency of the proposed system.

Keywords: Lorenz models, nonlinear systems, nonlinear estimator, state-space model

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Authors: Machimontorn Promtong, Sherman C. P. Cheung, Guan H. Yeoh, Sara Vahaji, Jiyuan Tu

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The wide range of industrial applications involved with boiling flows promotes the necessity of establishing fundamental knowledge in boiling flow phenomena. For this purpose, a number of experimental and numerical researches have been performed to elucidate the underlying physics of this flow. In this paper, the improved wall boiling models, implemented on ANSYS CFX 14.5, were introduced to study subcooled boiling flow at elevated pressure. At the heated wall boundary, the Fractal model, Force balance approach and Mechanistic frequency model are given for predicting the nucleation site density, bubble departure diameter, and bubble departure frequency. The presented wall heat flux partitioning closures were modified to consider the influence of bubble sliding along the wall before the lift-off, which usually happens in the flow boiling. The simulation was performed based on the Two-fluid model, where the standard k-ω SST model was selected for turbulence modelling. Existing experimental data at around 5 bars were chosen to evaluate the accuracy of the presented mechanistic approach. The void fraction and Interfacial Area Concentration (IAC) are in good agreement with the experimental data. However, the predicted bubble velocity and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) are over-predicted. This over-prediction may be caused by consideration of only dispersed and spherical bubbles in the simulations. In the future work, the important physical mechanisms of bubbles, such as merging and shrinking during sliding on the heated wall will be incorporated into this mechanistic model to enhance its capability for a wider range of flow prediction.

Keywords: subcooled boiling flow, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), mechanistic approach, two-fluid model

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Authors: Sara Bilal, Abdi Omar Shuriye, Raihan Othman

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Numerical Methods is a course that can be conducted using workshops and group discussion. This study has been implemented on undergraduate students of level two at the Faculty of Engineering, International Islamic University Malaysia. The Numerical Method course has been delivered to two Sections 1 and 2 with 44 and 22 students in each section, respectively. Systematic steps have been followed to apply the student centered learning approach in teaching Numerical Method course. Initially, the instructor has chosen the topic which was Euler’s Method to solve Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) to be learned. The students were then divided into groups with five members in each group. Initial instructions have been given to the group members to prepare their subtopics before meeting members from other groups to discuss the subtopics in an expert group inside the classroom. For the time assigned for the classroom discussion, the setting of the classroom was rearranged to accommodate the student centered learning approach. Teacher strength was by monitoring the process of learning inside and outside the class. The students have been assessed during the migrating to the expert groups, recording of a video explanation outside the classroom and during the final examination. Euler’s Method to solve the ODE was set as part of Question 3(b) in the final exam. It is observed that none of the students from both sections obtained a zero grade in Q3(b), compared to Q3(a) and Q3(c). Also, for Section 1(44 students), 29 students obtained the full mark of 7/7, while only 10 obtained 7/7 for Q3(a) and no students obtained 6/6 for Q3(c). Finally, we can recommend that the Numerical Method course be moved toward more student-centered Learning classrooms where the students will be engaged in group discussion rather than having a teacher one man show.

Keywords: teacher centered learning, student centered learning, mathematic, numerical methods

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Authors: Rashini Maduka, C. R. Wijesinghe, A. R. Weerasinghe

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Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) can happen when two or more drugs are taken together. Today DDIs have become a serious health issue due to adverse drug effects. In vivo and in vitro methods for identifying DDIs are time-consuming and costly. Therefore, in-silico-based approaches are preferred in DDI identification. Most machine learning models for DDI prediction are used chemical and biological drug properties as features. However, some drug features are not available and costly to extract. Therefore, it is better to make automatic feature engineering. Furthermore, people who have diabetes already suffer from other diseases and take more than one medicine together. Then adverse drug effects may happen to diabetic patients and cause unpleasant reactions in the body. In this study, we present a model with a graph convolutional autoencoder and a graph decoder using a dataset from DrugBank version 5.1.3. The main objective of the model is to identify unknown interactions between antidiabetic drugs and the drugs taken by diabetic patients for other diseases. We considered automatic feature engineering and used Known DDIs only as the input for the model. Our model has achieved 0.86 in AUC and 0.86 in AP.

Keywords: drug-drug interaction prediction, graph embedding, graph convolutional networks, adverse drug effects

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Authors: Raul Chavez Jr.

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Green roof's body of knowledge appears to be in its infancy stage in the Philippines. To contribute to its development, this study intends to answer the question: Does the existing green roof in Metro Manila perform well in providing thermal comfort and satisfaction to users? Relatively, this study focuses on thermal sensation and satisfaction of users, surface temperature comparison, weather data comparison of the site (Sky Garden) and local weather station (PAG-ASA), and its thermal resistance capacity. Initially, the researcher conducted a point-in-time survey in parallel with weather data gathering from PAG-ASA and Sky Garden. In line with these, ambient and surface temperature are conducted through the use of a digital anemometer, with humidity and temperature, and non-contact infrared thermometer respectively. Furthermore, to determine the Sky Garden's overall thermal resistance, materials found on site were identified and tabulated based on specified locations. It revealed that the Sky Garden can be considered comfortable based from PMV-PPD Model of ASHRAE Standard 55 having similar results from thermal comfort and thermal satisfaction survey, which is contrary to the actual condition of the Sky Garden by means of a psychrometric chart which falls beyond the contextualized comfort zone. In addition, ground floor benefited the most in terms of lower average ambient temperature and humidity compared to the Sky Garden. Lastly, surface temperature data indicates that the green roof portion obtained the highest average temperature yet performed well in terms of heat resistance compared to other locations. These results provided the researcher valuable baseline information of the actual performance of a certain green roof in Metro Manila that could be vital in locally enhancing the system even further and for future studies.

Keywords: Green Roof, Thermal Analysis, Thermal Comfort, Thermal Performance

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Authors: F. Louati, H. Trabelsi, M. Jamei

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Desiccation cracks following drainage-humidification cycles. With water loss, mainly due to evaporation, suction in the soil increases, producing volumetric shrinkage and tensile stress. When the tensile stress reaches tensile strength, the soil cracks. Desiccation cracks networks can directly control soil hydraulic properties. The aim of this study was for quantifying the hydraulic properties for examples the water retention curve, the saturated hydraulic conductivity, the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity function, the shrinkage dynamics in Tibar soil- clay soil in the Northern of Tunisia. Then a numerical simulation of unsaturated hydraulic properties for a crack network has been attempted. The finite elements code ‘CODE_BRIGHT’ can be used to follow the hydraulic distribution in cracked porous media.

Keywords: desiccation, cracks, permeability, unsaturated hydraulic flow, simulation

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Authors: Ravija Gunawardana, Banuka Athuraliya

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Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for disease diagnosis and prediction. The use of machine learning algorithms has the potential to improve the accuracy of disease prediction, thereby enabling medical professionals to provide more effective and personalized treatments. This study focuses on developing a machine-learning model for disease prediction using symptoms and X-ray images. The importance of this study lies in its potential to assist medical professionals in accurately diagnosing diseases, thereby improving patient outcomes. Respiratory diseases are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and chest X-rays are commonly used in the diagnosis of these diseases. However, accurately interpreting X-ray images requires significant expertise and can be time-consuming, making it difficult to diagnose respiratory diseases in a timely manner. By incorporating machine learning algorithms, we can significantly enhance disease prediction accuracy, ultimately leading to better patient care. The study utilized the Mask R-CNN algorithm, which is a state-of-the-art method for object detection and segmentation in images, to process chest X-ray images. The model was trained and tested on a large dataset of patient information, which included both symptom data and X-ray images. The performance of the model was evaluated using a range of metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The results showed that the model achieved an accuracy rate of over 90%, indicating that it was able to accurately detect and segment regions of interest in the X-ray images. In addition to X-ray images, the study also incorporated symptoms as input data for disease prediction. The study used three different classifiers, namely Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor and Support Vector Machine, to predict diseases based on symptoms. These classifiers were trained and tested using the same dataset of patient information as the X-ray model. The results showed promising accuracy rates for predicting diseases using symptoms, with the ensemble learning techniques significantly improving the accuracy of disease prediction. The study's findings indicate that the use of machine learning algorithms can significantly enhance disease prediction accuracy, ultimately leading to better patient care. The model developed in this study has the potential to assist medical professionals in diagnosing respiratory diseases more accurately and efficiently. However, it is important to note that the accuracy of the model can be affected by several factors, including the quality of the X-ray images, the size of the dataset used for training, and the complexity of the disease being diagnosed. In conclusion, the study demonstrated the potential of machine learning algorithms for disease prediction using symptoms and X-ray images. The use of these algorithms can improve the accuracy of disease diagnosis, ultimately leading to better patient care. Further research is needed to validate the model's accuracy and effectiveness in a clinical setting and to expand its application to other diseases.

Keywords: K-nearest neighbor, mask R-CNN, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Bouziane Mohamed Tewfik

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In order to improve the understanding of the influence of rainfall intensity on infiltration and deformation behaviour of unsaturated soil slopes, numerical 2D analyses are carried out by a three phase elasto-viscoplastic seepage-deformation coupled method. From the numerical results, it is shown that regardless of the saturated permeability of the soil slope, the increase in the pore water pressure (reduction in suction) during rainfall infiltration is localized close to the slope surface. In addition, the generation of the pore water pressure and the lateral displacement are mainly controlled by the ratio of the rainfall intensity to the saturated permeability of the soil.

Keywords: unsaturated soil, slope stability, rainfall infiltration, numerical analysis

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Authors: Palwinder Singh, Munish Sandhir, Tejinder Singh

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The ordinary differential equations (ODE) represent a natural framework for mathematical modeling of many real-life situations in the field of engineering, control systems, physics, chemistry and astronomy etc. Such type of differential equations can be solved by analytical methods or by numerical methods. If the solution is calculated using analytical methods, it is done through calculus theories, and thus requires a longer time to solve. In this paper, we compare the numerical accuracy of the solutions given by the three main types of one-step initial value solvers: Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method and Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method (RK4). The comparison of accuracy is obtained through comparing the solutions of ordinary differential equation given by these three methods. Furthermore, to verify the accuracy; we compare these numerical solutions with the exact solutions.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations (ODE), Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method, Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Omaymah AlAzhari

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Nomadic tribes have always had the need to relocate and build shelters, moving from one site to another in search of food, water, and natural resources. They are affected by weather and seasonal changes and consequently started innovating textiles to build better shelters. Their solutions came from the observation of their natural environment, material, and surroundings. The textile innovation of nomadic tribes has led designers to create environmentally responsive products, such as Ceginskas Lindström’s new self-shading tent membrane developed by her ‘smocking’ technique. ‘AlRahala’ Nomadic Bedouin tribes from the Middle East and North African region have used textiles as a fundamental architectural element in their tent structure, ‘Bayt AlShar’ (House of Hair). The nomadic tribe has innovated their textile to create a fabric that is more suited to change in climatic and weather conditions. Based on the research of existing literature and documents, as well as analysis of photographs and videos, to conclude that the traditional textiles and innovations done by nomadic tribes may be a rich source of information for designers, which can provide innovative solutions for manufacturing modern-day textiles.

Keywords: ‘AlRahala’ nomadic tribes, ‘Bayt AlShar’, tent structure, textile innovation

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Authors: Asra Yousuf, Ajaykumar Tannirkulum

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Inferring rural-urban migration trends can help design effective policies that promote better urban planning and rural development. In this paper, we describe how machine learning algorithms can be applied to predict internal migration decisions of people. We consider data collected from household surveys in Tamil Nadu to train our model. To measure the performance of the model, we use data on past migration from National Sample Survey Organisation of India. The factors for training the model include socioeconomic characteristic of each individual like age, gender, place of residence, outstanding loans, strength of the household, etc. and his past migration history. We perform a comparative analysis of the performance of a number of machine learning algorithm to determine their prediction accuracy. Our results show that machine learning algorithms provide a stronger prediction accuracy as compared to statistical models. Our goal through this research is to propose the use of data science techniques in understanding human decisions and behaviour in developing countries.

Keywords: development, migration, internal migration, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Claude Tadonki

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We address the issues related to the computation of the covariance matrix. This matrix is likely to be ill conditioned following its canonical expression, thus consequently raises serious numerical issues. The underlying linear system, which therefore should be solved by means of iterative approaches, becomes computationally challenging. A huge number of iterations is expected in order to reach an acceptable level of convergence, necessary to meet the required accuracy of the computation. In addition, this linear system needs to be solved at each iteration following the general form of the covariance matrix. Putting all together, its comes that we need to compute as fast as possible the associated matrix-vector product. This is our purpose in the work, where we consider and discuss skillful formulations of the problem, then propose a parallel implementation of the matrix-vector product involved. Numerical and performance oriented discussions are provided based on experimental evaluations.

Keywords: covariance-matrix, multicore, numerical computing, parallel computing

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Authors: Badr Alkahtani

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In this poster, numerical solutions of two-dimensional and three-dimensional lid driven cavity are presented by solving the steady Navier-Stokes equations at high Reynolds numbers where it becomes difficult. Lid driven cavity is where the a fluid contained in a cube and the upper wall is moving. In two dimensions, we use the streamfunction-vorticity formulation to solve the problem in a square domain. A numerical method is employed to discretize the problem in the x and y directions with a spectral collocation method. The problem is coded in the MATLAB programming environment. Solutions at high Reynolds numbers are obtained up to Re=20000 on a fine grid of 131 * 131. Also in this presentation, the numerical solutions for the three-dimensional lid-driven cavity problem are obtained by solving the velocity-vorticity formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations (which is the first time that this has been simulated with special boundary conditions) for various Reynolds numbers. A spectral collocation method is employed to discretize the y and z directions and a finite difference method is used to discretize the x direction. Numerical solutions are obtained for Reynolds number up to 200. , The work prepared here is to show the efficiency of methods used to simulate the physical problem where accurate simulations of lid driven cavity are obtained at high Reynolds number as mentioned above. The result for the two dimensional problem is far from the previous researcher result.

Keywords: lid driven cavity, navier-stokes, simulation, Reynolds number

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Authors: Amina Bouhaouche, Zineb Kaoua, Lila Lahreche, Sid Ali Kaoua, Kamel Daoud

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The objective of this study is to present a novel approach for analyzing the solid dispersion and mixing performance by a numerical simulation method using solid works software of a monodisperse particles for a large span of time reached 20 minutes. To assure the viability of a numerical simulation, an experimental study of a binary mixture of monodiperse particles taken as free flowing material in a V blender was developed on the basis of relative standard deviation curves, and the arrangement of the particles in the vessel. The experimental results were discussed and compared to the numerical simulation results.

Keywords: non-cohesive material, solid mixing, solid works, v-blender

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Authors: Mohammad Moonesun, Ehsan Asadi Asrami, Julia Bodnarchuk

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In the case of Solar Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, which uses photovoltaic panels to provide its required power, due to limitation of energy, accurate estimation of resistance and energy has major sensitivity. In this work, hydrodynamic calculations by numerical method for a solar autonomous underwater vehicle equipped by two 50 W photovoltaic panels has been studied. To evaluate the required power and energy, hull hydrodynamic resistance in several velocities should be taken into account. To do this assessment, the ANSYS FLUENT 18 applied as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool that solves Reynolds Average Navier Stokes (RANS) equations around AUV hull, and K-ω SST is used as turbulence model. To validate of solution method and modeling approach, the model of Myring submarine that it’s experimental data was available, is simulated. There is good agreement between numerical and experimental results. Also, these results showed that the K-ω SST Turbulence model is an ideal method to simulate the AUV motion in low velocities.

Keywords: underwater vehicle, hydrodynamic resistance, numerical modelling, CFD, RANS

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Authors: Maryamosadat Ghasemi, Reza Amrollahi

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Plasma equilibrium geometry has a great influence on the confinement and magnetohydrodynamic stability in tokamaks. The poloidal field (PF) system of a tokamak should be able to support this plasma equilibrium geometry. In this work the prepared numerical code based on radial basis functions are presented and used to solve the Grad–Shafranov (GS) equation for the axisymmetric equilibrium of tokamak plasma. The radial basis functions (RBFs) which is a kind of numerical meshfree method (MFM) for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) has appeared in the last decade and is developing significantly in the last few years. This technique is applied in this study to obtain the equilibrium configuration for Alborz Tokamak. The behavior of numerical solution convergences show the validation of this calculations.

Keywords: equilibrium, grad–shafranov, radial basis functions, Alborz Tokamak

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

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Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

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Authors: Pedro Miguel Cardoso Carneiro, Ricardo André Nunes Borges, João Pedro Soares Loureiro, Hermínio Maio Graça Fernandes

Abstract:

Wind energy has been exponentially growing over the last years and will allow countries to progress regarding the decarbonization objective. In parallel, the maintenance activities have also been increasing in consequence of ageing and deterioration of the wind farms. The time available for wind blade maintenance is given by the weather window that is based upon weather conditions. Most of the wind blade repair and maintenance activities require a narrow window of temperature and humidity. Due to this limitation, the current weather windows result only on approximately 35% days/year are used for maintenance, that takes place mostly during summertime. This limitation creates large economic losses in the energy production of the wind towers, since they can be inoperative or with the energy production output reduced for days or weeks due to existing damages. Another important aspect is that the maintenance costs are higher due to the high standby time and seasonality imposed on the technicians. To reduce the relevant maintenance costs of blades and energy loses some technological developments were carried out to significantly improve this reality. The focus of this activity was to develop a series of key developments to have in the near future a suspended access equipment that can operate in harsh conditions, wind rain, cold/hot environment. To this end we have identified key areas that need to be revised and require new solutions to be found; a habitat system, multi-configurable roof and floor, roof and floor interface to blade, secondary attachment solutions to the blade and to the tower. On this paper we will describe the advances produced during a national R&D project made in partnership with an end-user (Onrope) and a test center (ISQ).

Keywords: wind turbine maintenance, cost reduction, technological innovations, wind turbine blade

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Authors: Marian Sorin Ionescu, Olivia Negoita, Cosmin Dobrin

Abstract:

This scientific communication reports and discusses learning models adaptable to modern business problems and models specific to digital concepts and paradigms. In the PAC (probably approximately correct) learning model approach, in which the learning process begins by receiving a batch of learning examples, the set of learning processes is used to acquire a hypothesis, and when the learning process is fully used, this hypothesis is used in the prediction of new operational examples. For complex business models, a lot of models should be introduced and evaluated to estimate the induced results so that the totality of the results are used to develop a predictive rule, which anticipates the choice of new models. In opposition, for online learning-type processes, there is no separation between the learning (training) and predictive phase. Every time a business model is approached, a test example is considered from the beginning until the prediction of the appearance of a model considered correct from the point of view of the business decision. After choosing choice a part of the business model, the label with the logical value "true" is known. Some of the business models are used as examples of learning (training), which helps to improve the prediction mechanisms for future business models.

Keywords: machine learning, business models, convex analysis, online learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Abouzar Kaboudian, Boo Cheong Khoo

Abstract:

The Ghost Solid Method (GSM) based algorithms have been extensively used for numerical calculation of wave propagation in the limit of abrupt changes in materials. In this work, we present a unified version of the GSMs that can be successfully applied to both abrupt as well as smooth changes of the material properties in a medium. The application of this method enables us to use the previously-matured numerical algorithms which were developed to be applied to homogeneous mediums, with only minor modifications. This method is developed for one-dimensional settings and its extension to multi-dimensions is briefly discussed. Various numerical experiments are presented to show the applicability of this unified GSM to wave propagation problems in sharply as well as smoothly varying mediums.

Keywords: elastic solid, functionally graded material, ghost solid method, solid-solid interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Imad Eddine Charif, Wafaa Benchouk, Sidi Mohamed Mekelleche

Abstract:

The regioselectivity of a series of 16 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition reactions of nitrile oxides with 2(5H)-furanones has been analysed by means of global and local electrophilic and nucleophilic reactivity indices using density functional theory at the B3LYP level together with the 6-31G(d) basis set. The local electrophilicity and nucleophilicity indices, based on Fukui and Parr functions, have been calculated for the terminal sites, namely the C1 and O3 atoms of the 1,3-dipole and the C4 and C5 atoms of the dipolarophile. These local indices were calculated using both Mulliken and natural charges and spin densities. The results obtained show that the C5 atom of the 2(5H)-furanones is the most electrophilic site whereas the O3 atom of the nitrile oxides is the most nucleophilic centre. It turns out that the experimental regioselectivity is correctly reproduced, indicating that both Fukui- and Parr-based indices are efficient tools for the prediction of the regiochemistry of the studied reactions and could be used for the prediction of newly designed reactions of the same kind.

Keywords: 1, 3-dipolar cycloaddition, density functional theory, nitrile oxides, regioselectivity, reactivity indices

Procedia PDF Downloads 148