Search results for: modeling export
3663 Corruption and Economic Performance in Nigeria: The Role of Forensic Accounting
Authors: Jamila Garba Audu, Peter Adamu
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This study investigates the role of forensic accounting in the fight against corruption in Nigeria for better utilization of public funds and economic growth and development of the Country. We adopted a trend analysis to show the performance of the Nigerian economy as well as the quality of institutions which government economic and political activities in the country. It is an established fact that Nigeria has performed badly since the 1960s to date in terms of institutional quality and economic development despite large amount of money obtained from the export of crude oil. It was revealed also that the fight against corruption has not been very successful in recent times because experts in the field of forensic accounting have not been utilized. With the successes recorded in dealing with fraud and embezzlement using forensic accounting, it has become imperative for the EFCC to use forensic accountants in the fight against corruption in the country. Also, there is the need to introduce very seriously, the teaching of forensic accounting in Nigerian Universities to train experts.Keywords: corruption, economic performance, forensic accounting, Nigeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 3763662 Modeling and Simulation of Pad Surface Topography by Diamond Dressing in Chemical-Mechanical Polishing Process
Authors: A.Chen Chao-Chang, Phong Pham-Quoc
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Chemical-mechanical polishing (CMP) process has been widely applied on fabricating integrated circuits (IC) with a soft polishing pad combined with slurry composed of micron or nano-scaled abrasives for generating chemical reaction to remove substrate or film materials from wafer. During CMP process, pad uniformity usually works as a datum surface of wafer planarization and pad asperities can dominate the microscopic pad-slurry-wafer interaction. However, pad topography can be changed by related mechanism factors of CMP and it needs to be re-conditioned or dressed by a diamond dresser of well-distributed diamond grits on a disc surface. It is still very complicated to analyze and understand kinematic of diamond dressing process under the effects of input variables including oscillatory of diamond dresser and rotation speed ratio between the pad and the diamond dresser. This paper has developed a generic geometric model to clarify the kinematic modeling of diamond dressing processes such as dresser/pad motion, pad cutting locus, the relative velocity of the diamond abrasive grits on pad surface, and overlap of cutting for prediction of pad surface topography. Simulation results focus on comparing and analysis kinematics of the diamond dressing on certain CMP tools. Results have shown the significant parameters for diamond dressing process and also discussed. Future study can apply on diamond dresser design and experimental verification of pad dressing process.Keywords: kinematic modeling, diamond dresser, pad cutting locus, CMP
Procedia PDF Downloads 2553661 Decision Making about the Environmental Management Implementation: Incentives and Expectations
Authors: Eva Štěpánková
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Environmental management implementation is presently one of the ways of organization success and value improvement. Increasing an organization motivation to environmental measures introduction is caused primarily by the rising pressure of the society that generates various incentives to endeavor for the environmental performance improvement. The aim of the paper is to identify and characterize the key incentives and expectations leading organizations to the environmental management implementation. The author focuses on five businesses of different size and field, operating in the Czech Republic. The qualitative approach and grounded theory procedure are used in research. The results point out that the significant incentives for environmental management implementation represent primarily demands of customers, the opportunity to declare the environmental commitment and image improvement. The researched enterprises less commonly expect the economical contribution, competitive advantage increase or export rate improvement. The results show that marketing contributions are primarily expected from the environmental management implementation.Keywords: environmental management, environmental management system, ISO 14001, Czech Republic
Procedia PDF Downloads 3853660 Dynamic Modeling of Wind Farms in the Jeju Power System
Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Sang-Hee Kang, Soon-Ryul Nam
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In this paper, we develop a dynamic modeling of wind farms in the Jeju power system. The dynamic model of wind farms is developed to study their dynamic effects on the Jeju power system. PSS/E is used to develop the dynamic model of a wind farm composed of 1.5-MW doubly fed induction generators. The output of a wind farm is regulated based on pitch angle control, in which the two controllable parameters are speed and power references. The simulation results confirm that the pitch angle is successfully controlled, regardless of the variation in wind speed and output regulation.Keywords: dynamic model, Jeju power system, online limitation, pitch angle control, wind farm
Procedia PDF Downloads 3273659 Modeling of Bioelectric Activity of Nerve Cells Using Bond Graph Method
Authors: M. Ghasemi, F. Eskandari, B. Hamzehei, A. R. Arshi
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Bioelectric activity of nervous cells might be changed causing by various factors. This alteration can lead to unforeseen circumstances in other organs of the body. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to model a single neuron and its behavior under an initial stimulation. This study was developed based on cable theory by means of the Bond Graph method. The numerical values of the parameters were derived from empirical studies of cellular electrophysiology experiments. Initial excitation was applied through square current functions, and the resulted action potential was estimated along the neuron. The results revealed that the model was developed in this research adapted with the results of experimental studies and demonstrated the electrical behavior of nervous cells properly.Keywords: bond graph, stimulation, nervous cells, modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 4273658 From Risk/Security Analysis via Timespace to a Model of Human Vulnerability and Human Security
Authors: Anders Troedsson
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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace
Procedia PDF Downloads 2973657 Energy Consumption and GHG Production in Railway and Road Passenger Regional Transport
Authors: Martin Kendra, Tomas Skrucany, Jozef Gnap, Jan Ponicky
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Paper deals with the modeling and simulation of energy consumption and GHG production of two different modes of regional passenger transport – road and railway. These two transport modes use the same type of fuel – diesel. Modeling and simulation of the energy consumption in transport is often used due to calculation satisfactory accuracy and cost efficiency. Paper deals with the calculation based on EN standards and information collected from technical information from vehicle producers and characteristics of tracks. Calculation included maximal theoretical capacity of bus and train and real passenger’s measurement from operation. Final energy consumption and GHG production is calculated by using software simulation. In evaluation of the simulation is used system ‘well to wheel’.Keywords: bus, consumption energy, GHG, production, simulation, train
Procedia PDF Downloads 4433656 Mean Field Model Interaction for Computer and Communication Systems: Modeling and Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks
Authors: Irina A. Gudkova, Yousra Demigha
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Scientific research is moving more and more towards the study of complex systems in several areas of economics, biology physics, and computer science. In this paper, we will work on complex systems in communication networks, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) that are considered as stochastic systems composed of interacting entities. The current advancements of the sensing in computing and communication systems is an investment ground for research in several tracks. A detailed presentation was made for the WSN, their use, modeling, different problems that can occur in their application and some solutions. The main goal of this work reintroduces the idea of mean field method since it is a powerful technique to solve this type of models especially systems that evolve according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC). Modeling of a CTMC has been focused; we obtained a large system of interacting Continuous Time Markov Chain with population entities. The main idea was to work on one entity and replace the others with an average or effective interaction. In this context to make the solution easier, we consider a wireless sensor network as a multi-body problem and we reduce it to one body problem. The method was applied to a system of WSN modeled as a Markovian queue showing the results of the used technique.Keywords: Continuous-Time Markov Chain, Hidden Markov Chain, mean field method, Wireless sensor networks
Procedia PDF Downloads 1653655 Mathematical Modeling of the Operating Process and a Method to Determine the Design Parameters in an Electromagnetic Hammer Using Solenoid Electromagnets
Authors: Song Hyok Choe
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This study presented a method to determine the optimum design parameters based on a mathematical model of the operating process in a manual electromagnetic hammer using solenoid electromagnets. The operating process of the electromagnetic hammer depends on the circuit scheme of the power controller. Mathematical modeling of the operating process was carried out by considering the energy transfer process in the forward and reverse windings and the electromagnetic force acting on the impact and brake pistons. Using the developed mathematical model, the initial design data of a manual electromagnetic hammer proposed in this paper are encoded and analyzed in Matlab. On the other hand, a measuring experiment was carried out by using a measurement device to check the accuracy of the developed mathematical model. The relative errors of the analytical results for measured stroke distance of the impact piston, peak value of forward stroke current and peak value of reverse stroke current were −4.65%, 9.08% and 9.35%, respectively. Finally, it was shown that the mathematical model of the operating process of an electromagnetic hammer is relatively accurate, and it can be used to determine the design parameters of the electromagnetic hammer. Therefore, the design parameters that can provide the required impact energy in the manual electromagnetic hammer were determined using a mathematical model developed. The proposed method will be used for the further design and development of the various types of percussion rock drills.Keywords: solenoid electromagnet, electromagnetic hammer, stone processing, mathematical modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 453654 Architecture Design of the Robots Operability Assessment Simulation Testbed
Authors: Sang Yeong Choi, Woo Sung Park
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This paper presents the architecture design of the robot operability assessment simulation testbed (called "ROAST") for the resolution of robot operability problems occurred during interactions between human operators and robots. The basic idea of the ROAST architecture design is to enable the easy composition of legacy or new simulation models according to its purpose. ROAST architecture is based on IEEE1516 High Level Architecture (HLA) of defense modeling and simulation. The ROAST architecture is expected to provide the foundation framework for the easy construction of a simulation testbed to order to assess the robot operability during the robotic system design. Some of ROAST implementations and its usefulness are demonstrated through a simple illustrative example.Keywords: robotic system, modeling and simulation, simulation architecture, operability assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3643653 Catalytic and Non-Catalytic Pyrolysis of Walnut Shell Waste to Biofuel: Characterisation of Catalytic Biochar and Biooil
Authors: Saimatun Nisa
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Walnut is an important export product from the Union Territory of Jammy and Kashmir. After extraction of the kernel, the walnut shell forms a solid waste that needs to be managed. Pyrolysis is one interesting option for the utilization of this walnut waste. In this study microwave pyrolysis reactor is used to convert the walnut shell biomass into its value-added products. Catalytic and non-catalytic conversion of walnut shell waste to oil, gas and char was evaluated using a Co-based catalyst. The catalyst was characterized using XPS and SEM analysis. Pyrolysis temperature, reaction time, particle size and sweeping gas (N₂) flow rate were set in the ranges of 400–600 °C, 40 min, <0.6mm to < 4.75mm and 300 ml min−1, respectively. The heating rate was fixed at 40 °C min−1. Maximum gas yield was obtained at 600 °C, 40 min, particle size range 1.18-2.36, 0.5 molar catalytic as 45.2%. The liquid product catalytic and non-catalytic was characterized by GC–MS analyses. In addition, the solid product was analyzed by means of FTIR & SEM.Keywords: walnut shell, biooil, biochar, microwave pyrolysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 523652 Ficus carica as Adsorbent for Removal of Phenol from Aqueous Solutions: Modeling and Optimization
Authors: Tizi Hayet, Berrama Tarek, Bounif Nadia
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Phenol and its derivatives are organic compounds utilized in the chemical industry. They are introduced into the environment by accidental spills and the illegal release of industrial and municipal wastewater. Phenols are organic intermediaries that are considered potential pollutants. Adsorption is one of the purification and separation techniques used in this area. Algeria annually produces 131000 tons of fig; therefore, a large amount of fig leaves is generated, and the conversion of this waste into adsorbent allows the valorization of agricultural residue. The main purpose of this present work is to describe an application of a statistical method for modeling and to optimize the conditions of the phenol adsorption from agricultural by-products, locally available (fig leaves). The best experimental performance of phenol elimination on the adsorbent was obtained with: Adsorbent concentration (X₂) = 200 mg L⁻¹; Initial concentration (X₃) = 150 mg L⁻¹; Speed agitation (X₁) = 300 rpm.Keywords: low-cost adsorbents, adsorption, fig leaves, phenol, factorial design
Procedia PDF Downloads 1133651 Dynamic Control Theory: A Behavioral Modeling Approach to Demand Forecasting amongst Office Workers Engaged in a Competition on Energy Shifting
Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos
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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 1073650 Application of the Building Information Modeling Planning Approach to the Factory Planning
Authors: Peggy Näser
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Factory planning is a systematic, objective-oriented process for planning a factory, structured into a sequence of phases, each of which is dependent on the preceding phase and makes use of particular methods and tools, and extending from the setting of objectives to the start of production. The digital factory, on the other hand, is the generic term for a comprehensive network of digital models, methods, and tools – including simulation and 3D visualisation – integrated by a continuous data management system. Its aim is the holistic planning, evaluation and ongoing improvement of all the main structures, processes and resources of the real factory in conjunction with the product. Digital factory planning has already become established in factory planning. The application of Building Information Modeling has not yet been established in factory planning but has been used predominantly in the planning of public buildings. Furthermore, this concept is limited to the planning of the buildings and does not include the planning of equipment of the factory (machines, technical equipment) and their interfaces to the building. BIM is a cooperative method of working, in which the information and data relevant to its lifecycle are consistently recorded, managed and exchanged in a transparent communication between the involved parties on the basis of digital models of a building. Both approaches, the planning approach of Building Information Modeling and the methodical approach of the Digital Factory, are based on the use of a comprehensive data model. Therefore it is necessary to examine how the approach of Building Information Modeling can be extended in the context of factory planning in such a way that an integration of the equipment planning, as well as the building planning, can take place in a common digital model. For this, a number of different perspectives have to be investigated: the equipment perspective including the tools used to implement a comprehensive digital planning process, the communication perspective between the planners of different fields, the legal perspective, that the legal certainty in each country and the quality perspective, on which the quality criteria are defined and the planning will be evaluated. The individual perspectives are examined and illustrated in the article. An approach model for the integration of factory planning into the BIM approach, in particular for the integrated planning of equipment and buildings and the continuous digital planning is developed. For this purpose, the individual factory planning phases are detailed in the sense of the integration of the BIM approach. A comprehensive software concept is shown on the tool. In addition, the prerequisites required for this integrated planning are presented. With the help of the newly developed approach, a better coordination between equipment and buildings is to be achieved, the continuity of the digital factory planning is improved, the data quality is improved and expensive implementation errors are avoided in the implementation.Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory, digital planning, factory planning
Procedia PDF Downloads 2663649 Dynamic Response and Damage Modeling of Glass Fiber Reinforced Epoxy Composite Pipes: Numerical Investigation
Authors: Ammar Maziz, Mostapha Tarfaoui, Said Rechak
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The high mechanical performance of composite pipes can be adversely affected by their low resistance to impact loads. Loads in dynamic origin are dangerous and cause consequences on the operation of pipes because the damage is often not detected and can affect the structural integrity of composite pipes. In this work, an advanced 3-D finite element (FE) model, based on the use of intralaminar damage models was developed and used to predict damage under low-velocity impact. The performance of the numerical model is validated with the confrontation with the results of experimental tests. The results show that at low impact energy, the damage happens mainly by matrix cracking and delamination. The model capabilities to simulate the low-velocity impact events on the full-scale composite structures were proved.Keywords: composite materials, low velocity impact, FEA, dynamic behavior, progressive damage modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 1723648 Analysis of Marketing: Frozen Fruit and Vegetables Sector in Turkey
Authors: Pınar Aydın, Şule Turhan
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Today, with the change of people's consumption habits, the importance of frozen fruit and vegetable sector has been increased. In Turkey, sector is based on export. It is growing very fast and external demand is constantly increasing. About 80% of frozen fruits and vegetables produced in Turkey are being exported. More than 90% of the exports go to European Union countries. About 49% of frozen fruits and vegetables in Turkey is being exported to Germany, England and France. In the sector which the abroad demand is continuously increasing, although it has been estimated that around 25% of the average annual growth rate, the domestic consumption is very low. Although the frozen food consumption per person in Turkey is about %2 of United States, the growing rate of the sector is higher than the United States and Europe. This situation reflects that it is such a sector that has a growing demand in both domestic and foreign markets.Keywords: frozen food, fruit and vegetable sector, exports, Turkey
Procedia PDF Downloads 3343647 Dynamic Modeling of Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plants Using BioWin
Authors: Komal Rathore, Aydin Sunol, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford
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Advanced wastewater treatment plants have complex biological kinetics, time variant influent flow rates and long processing times. Due to these factors, the modeling and operational control of advanced wastewater treatment plants become complicated. However, development of a robust model for advanced wastewater treatment plants has become necessary in order to increase the efficiency of the plants, reduce energy costs and meet the discharge limits set by the government. A dynamic model was designed using the Envirosim (Canada) platform software called BioWin for several wastewater treatment plants in Hillsborough County, Florida. Proper control strategies for various parameters such as mixed liquor suspended solids, recycle activated sludge and waste activated sludge were developed for models to match the plant performance. The models were tuned using both the influent and effluent data from the plant and their laboratories. The plant SCADA was used to predict the influent wastewater rates and concentration profiles as a function of time. The kinetic parameters were tuned based on sensitivity analysis and trial and error methods. The dynamic models were validated by using experimental data for influent and effluent parameters. The dissolved oxygen measurements were taken to validate the model by coupling them with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models. The Biowin models were able to exactly mimic the plant performance and predict effluent behavior for extended periods. The models are useful for plant engineers and operators as they can take decisions beforehand by predicting the plant performance with the use of BioWin models. One of the important findings from the model was the effects of recycle and wastage ratios on the mixed liquor suspended solids. The model was also useful in determining the significant kinetic parameters for biological wastewater treatment systems.Keywords: BioWin, kinetic modeling, flowsheet simulation, dynamic modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 1543646 Evaluation of Deformation for Deep Excavations in the Greater Vancouver Area Through Case Studies
Authors: Boris Kolev, Matt Kokan, Mohammad Deriszadeh, Farshid Bateni
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Due to the increasing demand for real estate and the need for efficient land utilization in Greater Vancouver, developers have been increasingly considering the construction of high-rise structures with multiple below-grade parking. The temporary excavations required to allow for the construction of underground levels have recently reached up to 40 meters in depth. One of the challenges with deep excavations is the prediction of wall displacements and ground settlements due to their effect on the integrity of City utilities, infrastructure, and adjacent buildings. A large database of survey monitoring data has been collected for deep excavations in various soil conditions and shoring systems. The majority of the data collected is for tie-back anchors and shotcrete lagging systems. The data were categorized, analyzed and the results were evaluated to find a relationship between the most dominant parameters controlling the displacement, such as depth of excavation, soil properties, and the tie-back anchor loading and arrangement. For a select number of deep excavations, finite element modeling was considered for analyses. The lateral displacements from the simulation results were compared to the recorded survey monitoring data. The study concludes with a discussion and comparison of the available empirical and numerical modeling methodologies for evaluating lateral displacements in deep excavations.Keywords: deep excavations, lateral displacements, numerical modeling, shoring walls, tieback anchors
Procedia PDF Downloads 1813645 Process Modeling in an Aeronautics Context
Authors: Sophie Lemoussu, Jean-Charles Chaudemar, Robertus A. Vingerhoeds
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Many innovative projects exist in the field of aeronautics, each addressing specific areas so to reduce weight, increase autonomy, reduction of CO2, etc. In many cases, such innovative developments are being carried out by very small enterprises (VSE’s) or small and medium sized-enterprises (SME’s). A good example concerns airships that are being studied as a real alternative to passenger and cargo transportation. Today, no international regulations propose a precise and sufficiently detailed framework for the development and certification of airships. The absence of such a regulatory framework requires a very close contact with regulatory instances. However, VSE’s/SME’s do not always have sufficient resources and internal knowledge to handle this complexity and to discuss these issues. This poses an additional challenge for those VSE’s/SME’s, in particular those that have system integration responsibilities and that must provide all the necessary evidence to demonstrate their ability to design, produce, and operate airships with the expected level of safety and reliability. The main objective of this research is to provide a methodological framework enabling VSE’s/SME’s with limited resources to organize the development of airships while taking into account the constraints of safety, cost, time and performance. This paper proposes to provide a contribution to this problematic by proposing a Model-Based Systems Engineering approach. Through a comprehensive process modeling approach applied to the development processes, the regulatory constraints, existing best practices, etc., a good image can be obtained as to the process landscape that may influence the development of airships. To this effect, not only the necessary regulatory information is taken on board, also other international standards and norms on systems engineering and project management are being modeled and taken into account. In a next step, the model can be used for analysis of the specific situation for given developments, derive critical paths for the development, identify eventual conflicting aspects between the norms, standards, and regulatory expectations, or also identify those areas where not enough information is available. Once critical paths are known, optimization approaches can be used and decision support techniques can be applied so to better support VSE’s/SME’s in their innovative developments. This paper reports on the adopted modeling approach, the retained modeling languages, and how they all fit together.Keywords: aeronautics, certification, process modeling, project management, regulation, SME, systems engineering, VSE
Procedia PDF Downloads 1613644 Onboard Heat, Pressure and Boil-Off Gas Treatment for Stacked NGH Tank Containers
Authors: Hee Jin Kang
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Despite numerous studies on the reserves and availability of natural gas hydrates, the technology of transporting natural gas hydrates in large quantities to sea has not been put into practical use. Several natural gas hydrate transport technologies presented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are under preparation for commercialization. Among them, NGH tank container concept modularized transportation unit to prevent sintering effect during sea transportation. The natural gas hydrate can be vaporized in a certain part during the transportation. Unprocessed BOG increases the pressure inside the tank. Also, there is a risk of fire if you export the BOG out of the tank without proper handling. Therefore, in this study, we have studied the concept of technology to properly process BOG to modularize natural gas hydrate and to transport it to sea for long distance. The study is expected to contribute to the practical use of NGH tank container, which is a modular transport concept proposed to solve the sintering problem that occurs when transporting natural gas hydrate in the form of bulk cargo.Keywords: Natural gas hydrate, tank container, marine transportation, boil-off gas
Procedia PDF Downloads 3393643 Modeling of Maximum Rainfall Using Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution in Kigali, Rwanda
Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye
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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 1353642 Magneto-Rheological Damper Based Semi-Active Robust H∞ Control of Civil Structures with Parametric Uncertainties
Authors: Vedat Senol, Gursoy Turan, Anders Helmersson, Vortechz Andersson
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In developing a mathematical model of a real structure, the simulation results of the model may not match the real structural response. This is a general problem that arises during dynamic motion of the structure, which may be modeled by means of parameter variations in the stiffness, damping, and mass matrices. These changes in parameters need to be estimated, and the mathematical model is updated to obtain higher control performances and robustness. In this study, a linear fractional transformation (LFT) is utilized for uncertainty modeling. Further, a general approach to the design of an H∞ control of a magneto-rheological damper (MRD) for vibration reduction in a building with mass, damping, and stiffness uncertainties is presented.Keywords: uncertainty modeling, structural control, MR Damper, H∞, robust control
Procedia PDF Downloads 1383641 On Modeling Data Sets by Means of a Modified Saddlepoint Approximation
Authors: Serge B. Provost, Yishan Zhang
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A moment-based adjustment to the saddlepoint approximation is introduced in the context of density estimation. First applied to univariate distributions, this methodology is extended to the bivariate case. It then entails estimating the density function associated with each marginal distribution by means of the saddlepoint approximation and applying a bivariate adjustment to the product of the resulting density estimates. The connection to the distribution of empirical copulas will be pointed out. As well, a novel approach is proposed for estimating the support of distribution. As these results solely rely on sample moments and empirical cumulant-generating functions, they are particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets. Several illustrative applications will be presented.Keywords: empirical cumulant-generating function, endpoints identification, saddlepoint approximation, sample moments, density estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1623640 Modern State of the Universal Modeling for Centrifugal Compressors
Authors: Y. Galerkin, K. Soldatova, A. Drozdov
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The 6th version of Universal modeling method for centrifugal compressor stage calculation is described. Identification of the new mathematical model was made. As a result of identification the uniform set of empirical coefficients is received. The efficiency definition error is 0,86 % at a design point. The efficiency definition error at five flow rate points (except a point of the maximum flow rate) is 1,22 %. Several variants of the stage with 3D impellers designed by 6th version program and quasi three-dimensional calculation programs were compared by their gas dynamic performances CFD (NUMECA FINE TURBO). Performance comparison demonstrated general principles of design validity and leads to some design recommendations.Keywords: compressor design, loss model, performance prediction, test data, model stages, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient
Procedia PDF Downloads 4123639 A Coupled Extended-Finite-Discrete Element Method: On the Different Contact Schemes between Continua and Discontinua
Authors: Shervin Khazaeli, Shahab Haj-zamani
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Recently, advanced geotechnical engineering problems related to soil movement, particle loss, and modeling of local failure (i.e. discontinua) as well as modeling the in-contact structures (i.e. continua) are of the great interest among researchers. The aim of this research is to meet the requirements with respect to the modeling of the above-mentioned two different domains simultaneously. To this end, a coupled numerical method is introduced based on Discrete Element Method (DEM) and eXtended-Finite Element Method (X-FEM). In the coupled procedure, DEM is employed to capture the interactions and relative movements of soil particles as discontinua, while X-FEM is utilized to model in-contact structures as continua, which may consist of different types of discontinuities. For verification purposes, the new coupled approach is utilized to examine benchmark problems including different contacts between/within continua and discontinua. Results are validated by comparison with those of existing analytical and numerical solutions. This study proves that extended-finite-discrete element method can be used to robustly analyze not only contact problems, but also other types of discontinuities in continua such as (i) crack formations and propagations, (ii) voids and bimaterial interfaces, and (iii) combination of previous cases. In essence, the proposed method can be used vastly in advanced soil-structure interaction problems to investigate the micro and macro behaviour of the surrounding soil and the response of the embedded structure that contains discontinuities.Keywords: contact problems, discrete element method, extended-finite element method, soil-structure interaction
Procedia PDF Downloads 5053638 Computational Modeling of Combustion Wave in Nanoscale Thermite Reaction
Authors: Kyoungjin Kim
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Nanoscale thermites such as the composite mixture of nano-sized aluminum and molybdenum trioxide powders possess several technical advantages such as much higher reaction rate and shorter ignition delay, when compared to the conventional energetic formulations made of micron-sized metal and oxidizer particles. In this study, the self-propagation of combustion wave in compacted pellets of nanoscale thermite composites is modeled and computationally investigated by utilizing the activation energy reduction of aluminum particles due to nanoscale particle sizes. The present computational model predicts the speed of combustion wave propagation which is good agreement with the corresponding experiments of thermite reaction. Also, several characteristics of thermite reaction in nanoscale composites are discussed including the ignition delay and combustion wave structures.Keywords: nanoparticles, thermite reaction, combustion wave, numerical modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 3803637 Mathematical Modeling of a Sub-Wet Bulb Temperature Evaporative Cooling Using Porous Ceramic Materials
Authors: Meryem Kanzari, Rabah Boukhanouf, Hatem G. Ibrahim
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Indirect Evaporative Cooling process has the advantage of supplying cool air at constant moisture content. However, such system can only supply air at temperatures above wet bulb temperature. This paper presents a mathematical model for a sub-wet bulb temperature indirect evaporative cooling arrangement that can overcome this limitation and supply cool air at temperatures approaching dew point and without increasing its moisture content. In addition, the use of porous ceramics as wet media materials offers the advantage of integration into building elements. Results of the computer show that the proposed design is capable of cooling air to temperatures lower than the ambient wet bulb temperature and achieving wet bulb effectiveness of about 1.17.Keywords: indirect evaporative cooling, porous ceramic, sub-wet bulb temperature, mathematical modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 2943636 Oil-price Volatility and Economic Prosperity in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence
Authors: Yohanna Panshak
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The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure
Procedia PDF Downloads 2703635 The Effect of "Trait" Variance of Personality on Depression: Application of the Trait-State-Occasion Modeling
Authors: Pei-Chen Wu
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Both preexisting cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of personality-depression relationship have suffered from one main limitation: they ignored the stability of the construct of interest (e.g., personality and depression) can be expected to influence the estimate of the association between personality and depression. To address this limitation, the Trait-State-Occasion (TSO) modeling was adopted to analyze the sources of variance of the focused constructs. A TSO modeling was operated by partitioning a state variance into time-invariant (trait) and time-variant (occasion) components. Within a TSO framework, it is possible to predict change on the part of construct that really changes (i.e., time-variant variance), when controlling the trait variances. 750 high school students were followed for 4 waves over six-month intervals. The baseline data (T1) were collected from the senior high schools (aged 14 to 15 years). Participants were given Beck Depression Inventory and Big Five Inventory at each assessment. TSO modeling revealed that 70~78% of the variance in personality (five constructs) was stable over follow-up period; however, 57~61% of the variance in depression was stable. For personality construct, there were 7.6% to 8.4% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors; for depression construct there were 15.2% to 18.1% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors. Additionally, results showed that when controlling initial symptom severity, the time-invariant components of all five dimensions of personality were predictive of change in depression (Extraversion: B= .32, Openness: B = -.21, Agreeableness: B = -.27, Conscientious: B = -.36, Neuroticism: B = .39). Because five dimensions of personality shared some variance, the models in which all five dimensions of personality were simultaneous to predict change in depression were investigated. The time-invariant components of five dimensions were still significant predictors for change in depression (Extraversion: B = .30, Openness: B = -.24, Agreeableness: B = -.28, Conscientious: B = -.35, Neuroticism: B = .42). In sum, the majority of the variability of personality was stable over 2 years. Individuals with the greater tendency of Extraversion and Neuroticism have higher degrees of depression; individuals with the greater tendency of Openness, Agreeableness and Conscientious have lower degrees of depression.Keywords: assessment, depression, personality, trait-state-occasion model
Procedia PDF Downloads 1753634 ANN Modeling for Cadmium Biosorption from Potable Water Using a Packed-Bed Column Process
Authors: Dariush Jafari, Seyed Ali Jafari
Abstract:
The recommended limit for cadmium concentration in potable water is less than 0.005 mg/L. A continuous biosorption process using indigenous red seaweed, Gracilaria corticata, was performed to remove cadmium from the potable water. The process was conducted under fixed conditions and the breakthrough curves were achieved for three consecutive sorption-desorption cycles. A modeling based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was employed to fit the experimental breakthrough data. In addition, a simplified semi empirical model, Thomas, was employed for this purpose. It was found that ANN well described the experimental data (R2>0.99) while the Thomas prediction were a bit less successful with R2>0.97. The adjusted design parameters using the nonlinear form of Thomas model was in a good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones. The results approve the capability of ANN to predict the cadmium concentration in potable water.Keywords: ANN, biosorption, cadmium, packed-bed, potable water
Procedia PDF Downloads 430