Search results for: pragmatic strategies

Authors: Razia Hossaini, Maryam Hosseini

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Background and Objective: The impact of smoking on the shift in oral microbial composition has been questioned. This study aims to compare the oral microbiome between Turkish patients with dental caries and healthy individuals. Materials and Methods: An observational case-control study was conducted from January to June 2024, involving 270 young adults (180 with dental caries and 90 healthy controls). Participants were matched by age, gender, education, sugar consumption, and tooth brushing habits. Oral samples were collected using sterilized swabs and preserved in a PBS-glycerol solution. The cultured bacterial samples were characterized based on their morphological characteristics, Gram staining properties, hemolysis patterns, and biochemical tests including methyl red, sugar fermentation, Simmons citrate utilization, coagulase production, and catalase activity. These tests were conducted to accurately identify the bacterial species present. Subsequently, the relationship between smoking and oral health was evaluated, with a particular focus on assessing the smoking-induced changes in the composition of the oral microbiota using statistical analyses. Results: The study’s results demonstrate a clear association between smoking and an increased risk of dental caries, as well as significant shifts in the oral microbiota of smokers (p=0.04). These findings emphasize the critical need for public health initiatives that target smoking cessation as a means of improving oral health outcomes. Since smokers are 1.28 times more likely to develop dental caries than non-smokers, public health campaigns should incorporate messages that highlight the direct impact of smoking on oral health, alongside the well-established risks such as lung disease and cardiovascular conditions.The observed alterations in the oral microbiota—specifically the higher prevalence of pathogens like Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus mutans, and Lactobacillus acidophilus in patients with dental caries—suggest that smoking not only predisposes individuals to dental decay but also creates an environment conducive to the growth of harmful bacteria. Public health interventions could therefore focus on the dual benefit of smoking cessation: reducing the incidence of dental caries and restoring a healthier oral microbiome. Additionally, the reduced presence of beneficial or less pathogenic species such as Neisseria and Micrococcus luteus in smokers implies that smoking alters the protective balance of the oral microbiome. This further underscores the importance of preventive oral health strategies tailored to smokers. Conclusion: Smoking significantly impacts oral health by promoting dysbiosis, increasing cariogenic bacteria, and reducing beneficial bacteria, which contributes to the development of dental caries. These findings highlight the need for integrated public health efforts that address both smoking cessation and oral health promotion. By raising awareness of the specific oral health risks associated with smoking, public health initiatives could help reduce the burden of dental caries and other smoking-related oral diseases, ultimately improving quality of life for individuals and reducing healthcare costs.

Keywords: smoking, dysbiosis, bacteria, oral health, dental decay

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Authors: Huan Peng, Chenye Zeng, Zhao Wang

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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an age-related neurodegenerative disease that is a leading cause of dementia syndromes and has become a huge burden on society and families. The main pathological features of AD involve excessive deposition of β-amyloid (Aβ) and Tau proteins in the brain, resulting in loss of neurons, expansion of neuroinflammation, and cognitive dysfunction in patients. Researchers have found effective drugs to clear the brain of error-accumulating proteins or to slow the loss of neurons, but their direct administration has key bottlenecks such as single-drug limitation, rapid blood clearance rate, impenetrable blood-brain barrier (BBB), and poor ability to target tissues and cells. Therefore, we are committed to seeking a suitable and efficient delivery system. Inspired by the possibility that exosomes may be involved in the secretion and transport mechanism of many signaling molecules or proteins in the brain, exosomes have attracted extensive attention as natural nanoscale drug carriers. We selected exosomes derived from bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (MSC-EXO) with low immunogenicity and exosomes derived from hippocampal neurons (HT22-EXO) that may have excellent homing ability to overcome the deficiencies of oral or injectable pathways and bypass the BBB through nasal administration and evaluated their delivery ability and effect on AD. First, MSC-EXO and HT22 cells were isolated and cultured, and MSCs were identified by microimaging and flow cytometry. Then MSC-EXO and HT22-EXO were obtained by gradient centrifugation and qEV SEC separation column, and a series of physicochemical characterization were performed by transmission electron microscope, western blot, nanoparticle tracking analysis and dynamic light scattering. Next, exosomes labeled with lipophilic fluorescent dye were administered to WT mice and APP/PS1 mice to obtain fluorescence images of various organs at different times. Finally, APP/PS1 mice were administered intranasally with two exosomes 20 times over 40 days and 20 μL each time. Behavioral analysis and pathological section analysis of the hippocampus were performed after the experiment. The results showed that MSC-EXO and HT22-EXO were successfully isolated and characterized, and they had good biocompatibility. MSC-EXO showed excellent brain enrichment in APP/PS1 mice after intranasal administration, could improve the neuronal damage and reduce inflammation levels in the hippocampus of APP/PS1 mice, and the improvement effect was significantly better than HT22-EXO. However, intranasal administration of the two exosomes did not cause depression and anxious-like phenotypes in APP/PS1 mice, nor significantly improved the short-term or spatial learning and memory ability of APP/PS1 mice, and had no significant effect on the content of Aβ plaques in the hippocampus, which also meant that MSC-EXO could use their own advantages in combination with other drugs to clear Aβ plaques. The possibility of realizing highly effective non-invasive synergistic treatment for AD provides new strategies and ideas for clinical research.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, exosomes derived from mesenchymal stem cell, intranasal administration, therapy-carrier dual roles

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Authors: Kari Björn

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Introduction of games has expanded the application area of computer-aided learning tools to wide variety of age groups of learners. Serious games engage the learners into a real-world -type of simulation and potentially enrich the learning experience. Institutional background of a Bachelor’s level engineering program in Information and Communication Technology is introduced, with detailed focus on one of its majors, Health Technology. As part of a Customer Oriented Software Application thematic semester, one particular course of “eHealth Business and Solutions” is described and reflected in a gamified framework. Learning a consistent view into vast literature of business management, strategies, marketing and finance in a very limited time enforces selection of topics relevant to the industry. Health Technology is a novel and growing industry with a growing sector in consumer wearable devices and homecare applications. The business sector is attracting new entrepreneurs and impatient investor funds. From engineering education point of view the sector is driven by miniaturizing electronics, sensors and wireless applications. However, the market is highly consumer-driven and usability, safety and data integrity requirements are extremely high. When the same technology is used in analysis or treatment of patients, very strict regulatory measures are enforced. The paper introduces a course structure using gamification as a tool to learn the most essential in a new market: customer value proposition design, followed by a market entry game. Students analyze the existing market size and pricing structure of eHealth web-service market and enter the market as a steering group of their company, competing against the legacy players and with each other. The market is growing but has its rules of demand and supply balance. New products can be developed with an R&D-investment, and targeted to market with unique quality- and price-combinations. Product cost structure can be improved by investing to enhanced production capacity. Investments can be funded optionally by foreign capital. Students make management decisions and face the dynamics of the market competition in form of income statement and balance sheet after each decision cycle. The focus of the learning outcome is to understand customer value creation to be the source of cash flow. The benefit of gamification is to enrich the learning experience on structure and meaning of financial statements. The paper describes the gamification approach and discusses outcomes after two course implementations. Along the case description of learning challenges, some unexpected misconceptions are noted. Improvements of the game or the semi-gamified teaching pedagogy are discussed. The case description serves as an additional support to new game coordinator, as well as helps to improve the method. Overall, the gamified approach has helped to engage engineering student to business studies in an energizing way.

Keywords: engineering education, integrated curriculum, learning experience, learning outcomes

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Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.

Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling

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Authors: Jorge Cortés, Alejandra Martínez, Carlos Pérez, Anaid Simón

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The presence of government, news media, and general citizenry in social media allows considering interactions between them as a form of political communication (i.e. the public exchange of contradictory discourses about politics). Twitter’s asymmetrical following model (users can follow, mention or reply to other users that do not follow them) could foster alternative democratic practices and have an impact on Mexican political culture, which has been marked by a lack of direct communication channels between these actors. The research aim is to assess Twitter’s role in political communication practices through the analysis of interaction dynamics between government, news media, and citizens by extracting and visualizing data from Twitter’s API to observe general behavior patterns. The hypothesis is that regardless the fact that Twitter’s features enable direct and horizontal interactions between actors, users repeat traditional dynamics of interaction, without taking full advantage of the possibilities of this medium. Through an interdisciplinary team including Communication Strategies, Information Design, and Interaction Systems, the activity on Twitter generated by the controversy over the presence of Uber in Mexico City was analysed; an issue of public interest, involving aspects such as public opinion, economic interests and a legal dimension. This research includes techniques from social network analysis (SNA), a methodological approach focused on the comprehension of the relationships between actors through the visual representation and measurement of network characteristics. The analysis of the Uber event comprised data extraction, data categorization, corpus construction, corpus visualization and analysis. On the recovery stage TAGS, a Google Sheet template, was used to extract tweets that included the hashtags #UberSeQueda and #UberSeVa, posts containing the string Uber and tweets directed to @uber_mx. Using scripts written in Python, the data was filtered, discarding tweets with no interaction (replies, retweets or mentions) and locations outside of México. Considerations regarding bots and the omission of anecdotal posts were also taken into account. The utility of graphs to observe interactions of political communication in general was confirmed by the analysis of visualizations generated with programs such as Gephi and NodeXL. However, some aspects require improvements to obtain more useful visual representations for this type of research. For example, link¬crossings complicates following the direction of an interaction forcing users to manipulate the graph to see it clearly. It was concluded that some practices prevalent in political communication in Mexico are replicated in Twitter. Media actors tend to group together instead of interact with others. The political system tends to tweet as an advertising strategy rather than to generate dialogue. However, some actors were identified as bridges establishing communication between the three spheres, generating a more democratic exercise and taking advantage of Twitter’s possibilities. Although interactions in Twitter could become an alternative to political communication, this potential depends on the intentions of the participants and to what extent they are aiming for collaborative and direct communications. Further research is needed to get a deeper understanding on the political behavior of Twitter users and the possibilities of SNA for its analysis.

Keywords: interaction, political communication, social network analysis, Twitter

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Authors: Kaushikk Iyer, Richard M Hall, David Keeling

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Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation is an advanced technique for developing and testing complex real-time control systems. This paper presents the benefits of HIL simulation and how it can be implemented and used effectively to develop, test, and validate advanced control algorithms used in a spinal joint Wear simulator for the Tribological testing of spinal disc prostheses. spinal wear simulator is technologically the most advanced machine currently employed For the in-vitro testing of newly developed spinal Discimplants. However, the existing control techniques, such as a simple position control Does not allow the simulator to test non-sinusoidal waveforms. Thus, there is a need for better and advanced control methods that can be developed and tested Rigorouslybut safely before deploying it into the real simulator. A benchtop HILsetupis was created for experimentation, controller verification, and validation purposes, allowing different control strategies to be tested rapidly in a safe environment. The HIL simulation aspect in this setup attempts to replicate similar spinal motion and loading conditions. The spinal joint wear simulator containsa four-Barlinkpowered by electromechanical actuators. LabVIEW software is used to design a kinematic model of the spinal wear Simulator to Validatehow each link contributes towards the final motion of the implant under test. As a result, the implant articulates with an angular motion specified in the international standards, ISO-18192-1, that define fixed, simplified, and sinusoid motion and load profiles for wear testing of cervical disc implants. Using a PID controller, a velocity-based position control algorithm was developed to interface with the benchtop setup that performs HIL simulation. In addition to PID, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) was also developed that acts as a supervisory controller. FLC provides intelligence to the PID controller by By automatically tuning the controller for profiles that vary in amplitude, shape, and frequency. This combination of the fuzzy-PID controller is novel to the wear testing application for spinal simulators and demonstrated superior performance against PIDwhen tested for a spectrum of frequency. Kaushikk Iyer is a Ph.D. Student at the University of Leeds and an employee at Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom, (e-mail: [email protected], phone: +44 740 541 5502). Richard M Hall is with the University of Leeds, the United Kingdom as a professor in the Mechanical Engineering Department (e-mail: [email protected]). David Keeling is the managing director of Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom (e-mail: [email protected]). Results obtained are successfully validated against the load and motion tolerances specified by the ISO18192-1 standard and fall within limits, that is, ±0.5° at the maxima and minima of the motion and ±2 % of the complete cycle for phasing. The simulation results prove the efficacy of the test setup using HIL simulation to verify and validate the accuracy and robustness of the prospective controller before its deployment into the spinal wear simulator. This method of testing controllers enables a wide range of possibilities to test advanced control algorithms that can potentially test even profiles of patients performing various dailyliving activities.

Keywords: Fuzzy-PID controller, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), real-time simulation, spinal wear simulator

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Authors: Seonaid Hume, Gordon Dobie, Graeme West

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Detecting and localizing radioactive sources is a necessity for safe and secure decommissioning of nuclear facilities. An important aspect for the management of the sort-and-segregation process is establishing the spatial distributions and quantities of the waste radionuclides, their type, corresponding activity, and ultimately classification for disposal. The data received from surveys directly informs decommissioning plans, on-site incident management strategies, the approach needed for a new cell, as well as protecting the workforce and the public. Manual classification of nuclear waste from a nuclear cell is time-consuming, expensive, and requires significant expertise to make the classification judgment call. Also, in-cell decommissioning is still in its relative infancy, and few techniques are well-developed. As with any repetitive and routine tasks, there is the opportunity to improve the task of classifying nuclear waste using autonomous systems. Hence, this paper proposes a new framework for the automatic classification of nuclear waste. This framework consists of five main stages; 3D spatial mapping and object detection, object classification, radiological mapping, source localisation based on gathered evidence and finally, waste classification. The first stage of the framework, 3D visual mapping, involves object detection from point cloud data. A review of related applications in other industries is provided, and recommendations for approaches for waste classification are made. Object detection focusses initially on cylindrical objects since pipework is significant in nuclear cells and indeed any industrial site. The approach can be extended to other commonly occurring primitives such as spheres and cubes. This is in preparation of stage two, characterizing the point cloud data and estimating the dimensions, material, degradation, and mass of the objects detected in order to feature match them to an inventory of possible items found in that nuclear cell. Many items in nuclear cells are one-offs, have limited or poor drawings available, or have been modified since installation, and have complex interiors, which often and inadvertently pose difficulties when accessing certain zones and identifying waste remotely. Hence, this may require expert input to feature match objects. The third stage, radiological mapping, is similar in order to facilitate the characterization of the nuclear cell in terms of radiation fields, including the type of radiation, activity, and location within the nuclear cell. The fourth stage of the framework takes the visual map for stage 1, the object characterization from stage 2, and radiation map from stage 3 and fuses them together, providing a more detailed scene of the nuclear cell by identifying the location of radioactive materials in three dimensions. The last stage involves combining the evidence from the fused data sets to reveal the classification of the waste in Bq/kg, thus enabling better decision making and monitoring for in-cell decommissioning. The presentation of the framework is supported by representative case study data drawn from an application in decommissioning from a UK nuclear facility. This framework utilises recent advancements of the detection and mapping capabilities of complex radiation fields in three dimensions to make the process of classifying nuclear waste faster, more reliable, cost-effective and safer.

Keywords: nuclear decommissioning, radiation detection, object detection, waste classification

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Authors: M. Isabel Santos, Ana Breda, Ana Margarida Almeida

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Research on academic abilities of individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) underlines the importance of mathematics interventions. Yet the proposal of digital applications for children and youth with ASD continues to attract little attention, namely, regarding the development of mathematical reasoning, being the use of the digital technologies an area of great interest for individuals with this disorder and its use is certainly a facilitative strategy in the development of their mathematical abilities. The use of digital technologies can be an effective way to create innovative learning opportunities to these students and to develop creative, personalized and constructive environments, where they can develop differentiated abilities. The children with ASD often respond well to learning activities involving information presented visually. In this context, we present the digital Learning Environment on Mathematics for Autistic children (LEMA) that was a research project conducive to a PhD in Multimedia in Education and was developed by the Thematic Line Geometrix, located in the Department of Mathematics, in a collaboration effort with DigiMedia Research Center, of the Department of Communication and Art (University of Aveiro, Portugal). LEMA is a digital mathematical learning environment which activities are dynamically adapted to the user’s profile, towards the development of mathematical abilities of children aged 6–12 years diagnosed with ASD. LEMA has already been evaluated with end-users (both students and teacher’s experts) and based on the analysis of the collected data readjustments were made, enabling the continuous improvement of the prototype, namely considering the integration of universal design for learning (UDL) approaches, which are of most importance in ASD, due to its heterogeneity. The learning strategies incorporated in LEMA are: (i) provide options to custom choice of math activities, according to user’s profile; (ii) integrates simple interfaces with few elements, presenting only the features and content needed for the ongoing task; (iii) uses a simple visual and textual language; (iv) uses of different types of feedbacks (auditory, visual, positive/negative reinforcement, hints with helpful instructions including math concept definitions, solved math activities using split and easier tasks and, finally, the use of videos/animations that show a solution to the proposed activity); (v) provides information in multiple representation, such as text, video, audio and image for better content and vocabulary understanding in order to stimulate, motivate and engage users to mathematical learning, also helping users to focus on content; (vi) avoids using elements that distract or interfere with focus and attention; (vii) provides clear instructions and orientation about tasks to ease the user understanding of the content and the content language, in order to stimulate, motivate and engage the user; and (viii) uses buttons, familiarly icons and contrast between font and background. Since these children may experience little sensory tolerance and may have an impaired motor skill, besides the user to have the possibility to interact with LEMA through the mouse (point and click with a single button), the user has the possibility to interact with LEMA through Kinect device (using simple gesture moves).

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, digital technologies, inclusion, mathematical abilities, mathematical learning activities

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Authors: Nabamita Nath, Sanghamitra Sarkar

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Urban development in traditional neighbourhoods of cities is undergoing a sea change due to imposition of irregular development patterns on a predominantly inclusive urban fabric. In recent times, traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata have experienced irregular urban development which has resulted in transformation of its immediate urban character. The goal is to study and analyse impact of new urban developments within traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata and establish development guidelines to balance the old with the new. Various cities predominantly in third world countries are also experiencing similar development patterns in their traditional neighbourhoods. Existing literature surveys of development patterns in such neighbourhoods have established 9 major parameters viz. edge, movement, node, landmark, size-density, pattern-grain-texture, open spaces, urban spaces, urban form and views-vistas of the neighbourhood. To evaluate impact of urban development in traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata, 3 different areas have been chronologically selected based on their settlement patterns. Parameters established through literature surveys have been applied to the selected areas to study and analyse the existing patterns of development. The main sources of this study included extensive on-site surveys, academic archive, census data, organisational records and informational websites. Applying the established parameters, 5 major conclusions were derived. Firstly, it was found that pedestrian friendly neighbourhoods of the city were becoming more car-centric. This has resulted in loss of interactive and social spaces which defined the cultural heritage of Kolkata. Secondly, the urban pattern which was composed of dense and compact fabric is gradually losing its character due to incorporation of new building typologies. Thirdly, the new building typologies include gated communities with private open spaces which is a stark departure from the existing built typology. However, these open spaces have not contributed in creation of inclusive public places for the community which are a significant part of such heritage neighbourhood precincts. Fourthly, commercial zones that primarily developed along major access routes have now infiltrated within these neighbourhoods. Gated communities do not favour formation of on-street commercial activities generating haphazard development patterns. Lastly, individual residential buildings that reflected Indo-saracenic and Neo-gothic architectural styles are converting into multi-storeyed residential apartments. As a result, the axis that created a definite visual identity for a neighbourhood is progressively following an irregular pattern. Thus, uniformity of the old skyline is gradually becoming inconsistent. The major issue currently is threat caused by irregular urban development to heritage zones and buildings of traditional neighbourhoods. Streets, lanes, courtyards, open spaces and buildings of old neighbourhoods imparted a unique cultural identity to the city that is disappearing with emerging urban development patterns. It has been concluded that specific guidelines for urban development should be regulated primarily based on existing urban form of traditional neighbourhoods. Such neighbourhood development strategies should be formulated for various cities of third world countries to control irregular developments thereby balancing heritage and development.

Keywords: heritage, Kolkata, traditional neighbourhood, urban development

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Authors: Hanna Mamo Ergando

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Climate change is already having a severe influence on agriculture, affecting crop yields, the nutritional content of main grains, and livestock productivity. Significant adaptation investments will be necessary to sustain existing yields and enhance production and food quality to fulfill demand. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) provides numerous potentials in this regard, combining a focus on enhancing agricultural output and incomes while also strengthening resilience and responding to climate change. To improve agriculture production and productivity, the Ethiopian government has adopted and implemented a series of strategies, including the recent agricultural cluster farming that is practiced as an effort to change, improve, and transform subsistence farming to modern, productive, market-oriented, and climate-smart approach through farmers production cluster. Besides, greater attention and focus have been given to wheat production and productivity by the government, and wheat is the major crop grown in cluster farming. Therefore, the objective of this assessment was to examine various opportunities and challenges farmers face in a cluster farming system. A qualitative research approach was used to generate primary and secondary data. Respondents were chosen using the purposeful sampling technique. Accordingly, experts from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute, the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute, and the Ethiopian Environment Protection Authority were interviewed. The assessment result revealed that farming in clusters is an economically viable technique for sustaining small, resource-limited, and socially disadvantaged farmers' agricultural businesses. The method assists farmers in consolidating their products and delivering them in bulk to save on transportation costs while increasing income. Smallholders' negotiating power has improved as a result of cluster membership, as has knowledge and information spillover. The key challenges, on the other hand, were identified as a lack of timely provision of modern inputs, insufficient access to credit services, conflict of interest in crop selection, and a lack of output market for agro-processing firms. Furthermore, farmers in the cluster farming approach grow wheat year after year without crop rotation or diversification techniques. Mono-cropping has disadvantages because it raises the likelihood of disease and insect outbreaks. This practice may result in long-term consequences, including soil degradation, reduced biodiversity, and economic risk for farmers. Therefore, the government must devote more resources to addressing the issue of environmental sustainability. Farmers' access to complementary services that promote production and marketing efficiencies through infrastructure and institutional services has to be improved. In general, the assessment begins with some hint that leads to a deeper study into the efficiency of the strategy implementation, upholding existing policy, and scaling up good practices in a sustainable and environmentally viable manner.

Keywords: cluster farming, smallholder farmers, wheat, challenges, opportunities

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Authors: Rakesh Tiwary, D. M. Diwakar, Sandhya Mahapatro

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Agro-forestry offers huge opportunities for diversification of agriculture in middle Gangetic Basin of India, particularly in the state of Bihar as the region is identified with traditional & stagnant agriculture, low productivity, high population pressure, rural poverty and lack of agro- industrial development. The region is endowed with favourable agro-climatic, soil & drainage conditions; interestingly, there has been an age old tradition of agro-forestry in the state. However, due to demographic pressures, declining land holdings and other socio- economic factors, agro forestry practices have declined in recent decades. The government of Bihar has initiated a special program for expansion of agro-forestry based on modern practices with an aim to raise income level of farmers, make available raw material for wood based industries and increase green cover in the state. The Agro-forestry Schemes – Poplar & Other Species are the key components of the program being implemented by Department of Environment & Forest, Govt. of Bihar. The paper is based on fieldwork based evaluation study on experiences of implementation of the agro-forestry schemes. Understanding adoption patterns, identification of key motives for practising agro-forestry, experiences of farmers well analysing the barriers in expansion constituted the major themes of the research study. This paper is based on primary as well as secondary data. The primary data consists of beneficiary household survey, Focus Group Discussions among beneficiary communities, dialogue and multi stakeholder meetings and field visit to the sites. The secondary data information was collected and analysed from official records, policy documents and reports. Primary data was collected from about 500 beneficiary households of Muzaffarpur & Saharsa- two populous, large and agriculture dominated districts of middle Gangetic basin of North Bihar. Survey also covers 100 households of non-beneficiaries. Probability Proportionate to Size method was used to determine the number of samples to be covered in different blocks of two districts. Qualitative tools were also implemented to have better insights about key research questions. Present paper discusses socio-economic background of farmers practising agro-forestry; the adoption patterns of agro- forestry (choice of plants, methods of plantation and others); and motivation behind adoption of agro-forestry and the comparative benefits of agro-forestry (vis-a-vis traditional agriculture). Experience of beneficiary farmers with agro-forestry based on government programs & promotional campaigns (in terms of awareness, ease of access, knowhow and others) have been covered in the paper. Different aspects of survival of plants have been closely examined. Non beneficiaries but potential adopters were also interviewed to understand barriers of adoption of agro- forestry. Paper provides policy recommendations and interventions required for effective expansion of the agro- forestry and realisation of its future prospects for agricultural diversification in the region.

Keywords: agro-forestry adoption patterns, farmers’ motivations & experiences, Indian middle Gangetic plains, strategies for expansion

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Authors: Phenphak Horadee, Rodchares Hanrinth, Saithip Suttiruksa

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Inappropriate use of antibiotics has happened in several hospitals, Thailand. Drug use evaluation (DUE) is one strategy to overcome this difficulty. However, most community hospitals still encounter incomplete evaluation resulting overuse of antibiotics with high cost. Consequently, drug-resistant bacteria have been rising due to inappropriate antibiotic use. The aim of this study was to involve stakeholders in conceptualizing, developing, and prioritizing a feasible intervention strategy to promote and support appropriate antibiotic prescribing in a community hospital, Thailand. Study antibiotics included four antibiotics such as Meropenem, Piperacillin/tazobactam, Amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, and Vancomycin. The study was conducted for the 1-year period between March 1, 2018, and March 31, 2019, in a community hospital in the northeastern part of Thailand. Concept mapping was used in a purposive sample, including doctors (one was an administrator), pharmacists, and nurses who involving drug use evaluation of antibiotics. In-depth interviews for each participant and survey research were conducted to seek the problems for inappropriate use of antibiotics based on drug use evaluation system. Seventy-seven percent of DUE reported appropriate antibiotic prescribing, which still did not reach the goal of 80 percent appropriateness. Meropenem led other antibiotics for inappropriate prescribing. The causes of the unsuccessful DUE program were classified into three themes such as personnel, lack of public relation and communication, and unsupported policy and impractical regulations. During the first meeting, stakeholders (n = 21) expressed the generation of interventions. During the second meeting, participants who were almost the same group of people in the first meeting (n = 21) were requested to independently rate the feasibility and importance of each idea and to categorize them into relevant clusters to facilitate multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis. The outputs of analysis included the idealist, cluster list, point map, point rating map, cluster map, and cluster rating map. All of these were distributed to participants (n = 21) during the third meeting to reach consensus on an intervention model. The final proposed intervention strategy included 29 feasible and crucial interventions in seven clusters: development of information technology system, establishing policy and taking it into the action plan, proactive public relations of the policy, action plan and workflow, in cooperation of multidisciplinary teams in drug use evaluation, work review and evaluation with performance reporting, promoting and developing professional and clinical skill for staff with training programs, and developing practical drug use evaluation guideline for antibiotics. These interventions are relevant and fit to several intervention strategies for antibiotic stewardship program in many international organizations such as participation of the multidisciplinary team, developing information technology to support antibiotic smart use, and communication. These interventions were prioritized for implementation over a 1-year period. Once the possibility of each activity or plan is set up, the proposed program could be applied and integrated into hospital policy after evaluating plans. Effectiveness of each intervention could be promoted to other community hospitals to promote and support antibiotic smart use.

Keywords: antibiotic, concept mapping, drug use evaluation, multidisciplinary teams

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Authors: Huijing Wen, Daibao Guo

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Writing is thought to be the most complex facet of language arts. Assessing writing is difficult and subjective, and there are few scientifically validated assessments exist. Research has proposed evaluating writing using a multidimensional approach, including both qualitative and quantitative measures of handwriting, spelling and prose. Given that narrative writing has historically been a staple of literacy instruction in primary grades and is one of the three major genres Common Core State Standards required students to acquire starting in kindergarten, it is essential for teachers to understand how to measure beginning writers writing development and sources of writing difficulties through narrative writing. Guided by the theoretical models of early written expression and using empirical data, this study examines ways teachers can enact a comprehensive approach to understanding beginning writer’s narrative writing through three writing rubrics developed for a Curriculum-based Measurement (CBM). The goal is to help classroom teachers structure a framework for assessing early writing in primary classrooms. Participants in this study included 380 first-grade students from 50 classrooms in 13 schools in three school districts in a Mid-Atlantic state. Three writing tests were used to assess first graders’ writing skills in relation to both transcription (i.e., handwriting fluency and spelling tests) and translational skills (i.e., a narrative prompt). First graders were asked to respond to a narrative prompt in 20 minutes. Grounded in theoretical models of earlier expression and empirical evidence of key contributors to early writing, all written samples to the narrative prompt were coded three ways for different dimensions of writing: length, quality, and genre elements. To measure the quality of the narrative writing, a traditional holistic rating rubric was developed by the researchers based on the CCSS and the general traits of good writing. Students' genre knowledge was measured by using a separate analytic rubric for narrative writing. Findings showed that first-graders had emerging and limited transcriptional and translational skills with a nascent knowledge of genre conventions. The findings of the study provided support for the Not-So-Simple View of Writing in that fluent written expression, measured by length and other important linguistic resources measured by the overall quality and genre knowledge rubrics, are fundamental in early writing development. Our study echoed previous research findings on children's narrative development. The study has practical classroom application as it informs writing instruction and assessment. It offered practical guidelines for classroom instruction by providing teachers with a better understanding of first graders' narrative writing skills and knowledge of genre conventions. Understanding students’ narrative writing provides teachers with more insights into specific strategies students might use during writing and their understanding of good narrative writing. Additionally, it is important for teachers to differentiate writing instruction given the individual differences shown by our multiple writing measures. Overall, the study shed light on beginning writers’ narrative writing, indicating the complexity of early writing development.

Keywords: writing assessment, early writing, beginning writers, transcriptional skills, translational skills, primary grades, simple view of writing, writing rubrics, curriculum-based measurement

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Authors: Prajna Paramita Naik, Sujit Kumar Bhutia

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Background: Regardless of the development multimodal treatment strategies, oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is often associated with a high rate of recurrence, metastasis and chemo- and radio- resistance. The present study inspected the relevance of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression as a putative stem cell compartment in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and deciphered the role of autophagy in regulating the expression of aforementioned proteins, stemness and chemoresistance. Methods: A retrospective analysis of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression with respect to the various clinicopathological factors of sixty OSCC patients were determined via immunohistochemistry. The correlation among CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression was established. Sphere formation assay, flow cytometry and fluorescence microscopy were conducted to elucidate the stemness and chemoresistance nature of established cisplatin-resistant oral cancer cells (FaDu). The pattern of expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 in parental (FaDu-P) and resistant FaDu cells (FaDu-CDDP-R) were investigated through fluorescence microscopy. Western blot analysis of autophagy marker proteins was performed to compare the status of autophagy in parental and resistant FaDu cell. To investigate the role of autophagy in chemoresistance and stemness, sphere formation assay, immunofluorescence and Western blot analysis was performed post transfection with siATG14 and the level of expression of autophagic proteins, mitochondrial protein and stemness-associated proteins were analyzed. The statistical analysis was performed by GraphPad Prism 4.0 software. p-value was defined as follows: not significant (n.s.): p > 0.05;*: p ≤ 0.05; **: p ≤ 0.01; ***: p ≤ 0.001; ****: p ≤ 0.0001 were considered statistically significant. Results: In OSCC, high CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression were significantly correlated with higher tumor grades and poor differentiation. However, the expression of these proteins was not related to the age and sex of OSCC patients. Moreover, the expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 were positively correlated with each other. In vitro and OSCC tissue double labeling experiment data showed that CD44+ cells were highly associated with ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression. Further, FaDu-CDDP-R cells showed higher sphere forming capacity along with increased fraction of the CD44+ population and β-catenin expression FaDu-CDDP-R cells also showed accelerated expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17. A comparatively higher autophagic flux was observed in FaDu-CDDP-R against FaDu-P cells. The expression of mitochondrial proteins was noticeably reduced in resistant cells as compared to parental cells indicating the occurrence of autophagy-mediated mitochondrial degradation in oral cancer. Moreover, inhibition of autophagy was coupled with the decreased formation of orospheres suggesting autophagy-mediated stemness in oral cancer. Blockade of autophagy was also found to induce the restoration of mitochondrial proteins in FaDu-CDDP-R cells indicating the involvement of mitophagy in chemoresistance. Furthermore, a reduced expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 was also observed in ATG14 deficient cells FaDu-P and FaDu-CDDP-R cells. Conclusion: The CD44+ ⁄ABCB1+ ⁄ADAM17+ expression in OSCC might be associated with chemoresistance and a putative CSC compartment. Further, the present study highlights the contribution of mitophagy in chemoresistance and confirms the potential involvement of autophagic regulation in acquisition of stem-like characteristics in OSCC.

Keywords: ABCB1, ADAM17, autophagy, CD44, chemoresistance, mitophagy, OSCC, stemness

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Authors: Linara Salikhova, Elmira Nizamova, Aleksandra Katasonova, Gleb Vitkov, Olga Sarapulova.

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While most European cities conduct research on heat-related risks, there is a research gap in the Caucasus region, particularly in Yerevan, Armenia. This study aims to test the method of establishing a correlation between urban heat islands (UHI) and urban greenery distribution for prioritization of heat-vulnerable areas for revegetation. Armenia has failed to consider measures to mitigate UHI in urban development strategies despite a 2.1°C increase in average annual temperature over the past 32 years. However, planting vegetation in the city is commonly used to deal with air pollution and can be effective in reducing UHI if it prioritizes heat-vulnerable areas. The research focuses on establishing such priorities while considering the distribution of urban greenery across the city. The lack of spatially explicit air temperature data necessitated the use of satellite images to achieve the following objectives: (1) identification of land surface temperatures (LST) and quantification of temperature variations across districts; (2) classification of massifs of land surface types using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI); (3) correlation of land surface classes with LST. Examination of the heat-vulnerable city areas (in this study, the proportion of individuals aged 75 years and above) is based on demographic data (Census 2011). Based on satellite images (Sentinel-2) captured on June 5, 2021, NDVI calculations were conducted. The massifs of the land surface were divided into five surface classes. Due to capacity limitations, the average LST for each district was identified using one satellite image from Landsat-8 on August 15, 2021. In this research, local relief is not considered, as the study mainly focuses on the interconnection between temperatures and green massifs. The average temperature in the city is 3.8°C higher than in the surrounding non-urban areas. The temperature excess ranges from a low in Norq Marash to a high in Nubarashen. Norq Marash and Avan have the highest tree and grass coverage proportions, with 56.2% and 54.5%, respectively. In other districts, the balance of wastelands and buildings is three times higher than the grass and trees, ranging from 49.8% in Quanaqer-Zeytun to 76.6% in Nubarashen. Studies have shown that decreased tree and grass coverage within a district correlates with a higher temperature increase. The temperature excess is highest in Erebuni, Ajapnyak, and Nubarashen districts. These districts have less than 25% of their area covered with grass and trees. On the other hand, Avan and Norq Marash districts have a lower temperature difference, as more than 50% of their areas are covered with trees and grass. According to the findings, a significant proportion of the elderly population (35%) aged 75 years and above reside in the Erebuni, Ajapnyak, and Shengavit neighborhoods, which are more susceptible to heat stress with an LST higher than in other city districts. The findings suggest that the method of comparing the distribution of green massifs and LST can contribute to the prioritization of heat-vulnerable city areas for revegetation. The method can become a rationale for the formation of an urban greening program.

Keywords: heat-vulnerability, land surface temperature, urban greenery, urban heat island, vegetation

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Authors: Miria Gambardella

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The influence of solidarity demonstrations towards the Zapatista National Liberation Army has been constantly present over the years, both locally and internationally, guaranteeing visibility to the cause, shaping the movement’s choices, and influencing its hopes of impact worldwide. Most of the coffee produced by the autonomous cooperatives from Chiapas is exported, therefore making coffee trade the main income from international solidarity networks. The question arises about the implications of the relations established between the communities in resistance in Southeastern Mexico and international solidarity movements, specifically on the strategies adopted to conciliate army's demands for autonomy and economic asymmetries between Zapatista cooperatives producing coffee and European collectives who hold purchasing power. In order to deepen the inquiry on those topics, a year-long multi-site investigation was carried out. The first six months of fieldwork were based in Barcelona, where Zapatista coffee was first traded in Spain and where one of the historical and most important European solidarity groups can be found. The last six months of fieldwork were carried out directly in Chiapas, in contact with coffee producers, Zapatista political authorities, international activists as well as vendors, and the rest of the network implicated in coffee production, roasting, and sale. The investigation was based on qualitative research methods, including participatory observation, focus groups, and semi-structured interviews. The analysis did not only focus on retracing the steps of the market chain as if it could be considered a linear and unilateral process, but it rather aimed at exploring actors’ reciprocal perceptions, roles, and dynamics of power. Demonstrations of solidarity and the money circulation they imply aim at changing the system in place and building alternatives, among other things, on the economic level. This work analyzes the formulation of discourse and the organization of solidarity activities that aim at building opportunities for action within a highly politicized economic sphere to which access must be regularly legitimized. The meaning conveyed by coffee is constructed on a symbolic level by the attribution of moral criteria to transactions. The latter participate in the construction of imaginaries that circulate through solidarity movements with the Zapatista rebellion. Commercial exchanges linked to solidarity networks turned out to represent much more than monetary transactions. The social, cultural, and political spheres are invested by ethics, which penetrates all aspects of militant action. It is at this level that the boundaries of different collective actors connect, contaminating each other: merely following the money flow would have been limiting in order to account for a reality within which imaginary is one of the main currencies. The notions of “trust”, “dignity” and “reciprocity” are repeatedly mobilized to negotiate discontinuous and multidirectional flows in the attempt to balance and justify commercial relations in a politicized context that characterizes its own identity through demonizing “market economy” and its dehumanizing powers.

Keywords: coffee trade, economic anthropology, international cooperation, Zapatista National Liberation Army

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Authors: K. Rhea Devaiah, B. S. Premalatha

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Background: Tonsillar Lingual sulcus is the area between the tonsils and the base of the tongue. The surgical resection of the lesions in the head and neck results in changes in speech and swallowing functions. The severity of the speech and swallowing problem depends upon the site and extent of the lesion, types and extent of surgery and also the flexibility of the remaining structures. Need of the study: This paper focuses on the importance of speech and swallowing rehabilitation in an individual with the lesion in the Tonsillar Lingual Sulcus and post-operative functions. Aim: Evaluating the speech and swallow functions post-intensive speech and swallowing rehabilitation. The objectives are to evaluate the speech intelligibility and swallowing functions after intensive therapy and assess the quality of life. Method: The present study describes a report of an individual aged 47years male, with the diagnosis of basaloid squamous cell carcinoma, left tonsillar lingual sulcus (pT2n2M0) and underwent wide local excision with left radical neck dissection with PMMC flap reconstruction. Post-surgery the patient came with a complaint of reduced speech intelligibility, and difficulty in opening the mouth and swallowing. Detailed evaluation of the speech and swallowing functions were carried out such as OPME, articulation test, speech intelligibility, different phases of swallowing and trismus evaluation. Self-reported questionnaires such as SHI-E(Speech handicap Index- Indian English), DHI (Dysphagia handicap Index) and SESEQ -K (Self Evaluation of Swallowing Efficiency in Kannada) were also administered to know what the patient feels about his problem. Based on the evaluation, the patient was diagnosed with pharyngeal phase dysphagia associated with trismus and reduced speech intelligibility. Intensive speech and swallowing therapy was advised weekly twice for the duration of 1 hour. Results: Totally the patient attended 10 intensive speech and swallowing therapy sessions. Results indicated misarticulation of speech sounds such as lingua-palatal sounds. Mouth opening was restricted to one finger width with difficulty chewing, masticating, and swallowing the bolus. Intervention strategies included Oro motor exercise, Indirect swallowing therapy, usage of a trismus device to facilitate mouth opening, and change in the food consistency to help to swallow. A practice session was held with articulation drills to improve the production of speech sounds and also improve speech intelligibility. Significant changes in articulatory production and speech intelligibility and swallowing abilities were observed. The self-rated quality of life measures such as DHI, SHI and SESE Q-K revealed no speech handicap and near-normal swallowing ability indicating the improved QOL after the intensive speech and swallowing therapy. Conclusion: Speech and swallowing therapy post carcinoma in the tonsillar lingual sulcus is crucial as the tongue plays an important role in both speech and swallowing. The role of Speech-language and swallowing therapists in oral cancer should be highlighted in treating these patients and improving the overall quality of life. With intensive speech-language and swallowing therapy post-surgery for oral cancer, there can be a significant change in the speech outcome and swallowing functions depending on the site and extent of lesions which will thereby improve the individual’s QOL.

Keywords: oral cancer, speech and swallowing therapy, speech intelligibility, trismus, quality of life

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Authors: Ann P. Daunic, Nancy Corbett

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Background and Significance: Researchers emphasize the role that motivation, self-esteem, and self-regulation play in children’s early adjustment to the school culture, including skills such as identifying their own feelings and understanding the feelings of others. As social-emotional growth, academic learning, and successful integration within culture and society are inextricably connected, the Social-Emotional Learning Foundations (SELF) curriculum was designed to integrate social-emotional learning (SEL) instruction within early literacy instruction (specifically, reading) for Kindergarten and first-grade students at risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties. Storybook reading is a typically occurring activity in the primary grades; thus SELF provides an intervention that is both theoretically and practically sound. Methodology: The researchers will report on findings from the first two years of a three-year study funded by the US Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences to evaluate the effects of the SELF curriculum versus “business as usual” (BAU). SELF promotes the development of self-regulation by incorporating instructional strategies that support children’s use of SEL related vocabulary, self-talk, and critical thinking. The curriculum consists of a carefully coordinated set of materials and pedagogy designed specifically for primary grade children at early risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties. SELF lessons (approximately 50 at each grade level) are organized around 17 SEL topics within five critical competencies. SELF combines whole-group (the first in each topic) and small-group lessons (the 2nd and 3rd in each topic) to maximize opportunities for teacher modeling and language interactions. The researchers hypothesize that SELF offers a feasible and substantial opportunity within the classroom setting to provide a small-group social-emotional learning intervention integrated with K-1 literacy-related instruction. Participating target students (N = 876) were identified by their teachers as potentially at risk for emotional or behavioral issues. These students were selected from 122 Kindergarten and 100 first grade classrooms across diverse school districts in a southern state in the US. To measure the effectiveness of the SELF intervention, the researchers asked teachers to complete assessments related to social-emotional learning and adjustment to the school culture. A social-emotional learning related vocabulary assessment was administered directly to target students receiving small-group instruction. Data were analyzed using a 3-level MANOVA model with full information maximum likelihood to estimate coefficients and test hypotheses. Major Findings: SELF had significant positive effects on vocabulary, knowledge, and skills associated with social-emotional competencies, as evidenced by results from the measures administered. Effect sizes ranged from 0.41 for group (SELF vs. BAU) differences in vocabulary development to 0.68 for group differences in SEL related knowledge. Conclusion: Findings from two years of data collection indicate that SELF improved outcomes related to social-emotional learning and adjustment to the school culture. This study thus supports the integration of SEL with literacy instruction as a feasible and effective strategy to improve outcomes for K-1 students at risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties.

Keywords: Socio-cultural context for learning, social-emotional learning, social skills, vocabulary development

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Authors: Henry Okechukwu Onyeiwu

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In today’s Nigerian digital age, the landscape of public diplomacy has been significantly altered by the rise of social media platforms like YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. In recent years, social media platforms have emerged as powerful tools for public diplomacy, transforming how countries communicate with both domestic and global audiences. International broadcasting as a tool of public diplomacy has undergone a significant transformation. Traditional methods of state-run media and controlled broadcasting have evolved to incorporate the dynamic, interactive, and decentralized nature of digital platforms. Understanding how Nigerian governments engages in international broadcasting of public diplomacy, the influence of social media on broadcasting public diplomacy, focusing on the advantages and disadvantages of controlling media outlets for diplomatic purposes and also covers the changing nature of global communication in this digital era. As countries navigate the complexities of international relations, the effectiveness of controlled media in shaping public perception and engagement raises significant questions worth exploring. The vast amount of content available can make it challenging to capture and retain audience attention. The ease of spreading false information on social media requires international broadcasters to maintain credibility and counteract misleading narratives. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive research that integrates digital communication tools, cultural sensitivity, cybersecurity measures and ongoing evaluation to enhance Nigeria’s international broadcasting of public diplomacy. This study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods. A content analysis of Nigeria’s international broadcasting content was conducted to assess its themes, narratives, and engagement strategies. Additionally, surveys and interviews with communications professionals, diplomats, and social media users were carried out to gather insights on perceptions and effectiveness of public diplomacy initiatives. It has highlighted some of the present trends in technology and the international environmental in which public diplomacy must work, and show how the past can illuminate the road for those navigating this new world. The rise of the social network creates more opportunities than it closes for public diplomacy. This evolution highlights the increasing importance of engagement, mutual understanding, and cooperation in international relations. By Adopting a more inclusive and participatory approach, public diplomacy can more effectively address global challenges and build stronger, more resilient relationships between nations. As Nigeria navigates the complexities of its international relations, this abstract will provide a vital examination of how it can better utilize the dual platforms of international broadcasting and social media in its public diplomacy efforts. The outcome will bear significance not only for Nigeria but also for other nations grappling with similar challenges in the digital age. As social media continues to play a crucial role in public diplomacy, understanding the dynamics of controlled media outlets becomes ever more critical. This abstract shed light on the advantages and disadvantages of such control, ultimately contributing valuable insights to practitioners in the field of diplomacy as they adapt to the rapidly changing communication landscape.

Keywords: international broadcasting, public diplomacy, social media, international relation, polities

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Authors: Sesethu G. Njokweni, Marelize Botes, Emile W. H. Van Zyl

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An alternative strategy to the production of bioethanol is by examining the degradability of biomass in a natural system such as the rumen of mammals. This anaerobic microbial community has higher cellulolytic activities than microbial communities from other habitats and degrades cellulose to produce volatile fatty acids (VFA), methane and CO₂. VFAs have the potential to serve as intermediate products for electrochemical conversion to hydrocarbon fuels. In vitro mimicking of this process would be more cost-effective than bioethanol production as it does not require chemical pre-treatment of biomass, a sterile environment or added enzymes. The strategies of the carboxylate platform and the co-cultures of a bovine ruminal microbiota from cannulated cows were combined in order to investigate and optimize the bioconversion of agricultural biomass (apple and grape pomace, citrus pulp, sugarcane bagasse and triticale straw) to high value VFAs as intermediates for biofuel production in a consolidated bioprocess. Optimisation of reactor conditions was investigated using five different ruminal inoculum concentrations; 5,10,15,20 and 25% with fixed pH at 6.8 and temperature at 39 ˚C. The ANKOM 200/220 fiber analyser was used to analyse in vitro neutral detergent fiber (NDF) disappearance of the feedstuffs. Fresh and cryo-frozen (5% DMSO and 50% glycerol for 3 months) rumen cultures were tested for the retainment of fermentation capacity and durability in 72 h fermentations in 125 ml serum vials using a FURO medical solutions 6-valve gas manifold to induce anaerobic conditions. Fermentation of apple pomace, triticale straw, and grape pomace showed no significant difference (P > 0.05) in the effect of 15 and 20 % inoculum concentrations for the total VFA yield. However, high performance liquid chromatographic separation within the two inoculum concentrations showed a significant difference (P < 0.05) in acetic acid yield, with 20% inoculum concentration being the optimum at 4.67 g/l. NDF disappearance of 85% in 96 h and total VFA yield of 11.5 g/l in 72 h (A/P ratio = 2.04) for apple pomace entailed that it was the optimal feedstuff for this process. The NDF disappearance and VFA yield of DMSO (82% NDF disappearance and 10.6 g/l VFA) and glycerol (90% NDF disappearance and 11.6 g/l VFA) stored rumen also showed significantly similar degradability of apple pomace with lack of treatment effect differences compared to a fresh rumen control (P > 0.05). The lack of treatment effects was a positive sign in indicating that there was no difference between the stored samples and the fresh rumen control. Retaining of the fermentation capacity within the preserved cultures suggests that its metabolic characteristics were preserved due to resilience and redundancy of the rumen culture. The amount of degradability and VFA yield within a short span was similar to other carboxylate platforms that have longer run times. This study shows that by virtue of faster rates and high extent of degradability, small scale alternatives to bioethanol such as rumen microbiomes and other natural fermenting microbiomes can be employed to enhance the feasibility of biofuels large-scale implementation.

Keywords: agricultural wastes, carboxylate platform, rumen microbiome, volatile fatty acids

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Authors: Nuno Biga

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform management into several impactful ways. It allows machines to interpret information to find patterns in big data and learn from context analysis, optimize operations, make predictions sensitive to each specific situation and support data-driven decision making. The introduction of an 'artificial brain' in organization also enables learning through complex information and data provided by those who train it, namely its users. The "Assisted-BIGAMES" version of the Accident & Emergency (A&E) simulator introduces the concept of a "Virtual Assistant" (VA) sensitive to context, that provides users useful suggestions to pursue the following operations such as: a) to relocate workstations in order to shorten travelled distances and minimize the stress of those involved; b) to identify in real time existing bottleneck(s) in the operations system so that it is possible to quickly act upon them; c) to identify resources that should be polyvalent so that the system can be more efficient; d) to identify in which specific processes it may be advantageous to establish partnership with other teams; and e) to assess possible solutions based on the suggested KPIs allowing action monitoring to guide the (re)definition of future strategies. This paper is built on the BIGAMES© simulator and presents the conceptual AI model developed and demonstrated through a pilot project (BIG-AI). Each Virtual Assisted BIGAME is a management simulator developed by the author that guides operational and strategic decision making, providing users with useful information in the form of management recommendations that make it possible to predict the actual outcome of different alternative management strategic actions. The pilot project developed incorporates results from 12 editions of the BIGAME A&E that took place between 2017 and 2022 at AESE Business School, based on the compilation of data that allows establishing causal relationships between decisions taken and results obtained. The systemic analysis and interpretation of data is powered in the Assisted-BIGAMES through a computer application called "BIGAMES Virtual Assistant" (VA) that players can use during the Game. Each participant in the VA permanently asks himself about the decisions he should make during the game to win the competition. To this end, the role of the VA of each team consists in guiding the players to be more effective in their decision making, through presenting recommendations based on AI methods. It is important to note that the VA's suggestions for action can be accepted or rejected by the managers of each team, as they gain a better understanding of the issues along time, reflect on good practice and rely on their own experience, capability and knowledge to support their own decisions. Preliminary results show that the introduction of the VA provides a faster learning of the decision-making process. The facilitator designated as “Serious Game Controller” (SGC) is responsible for supporting the players with further analysis. The recommended actions by the SGC may differ or be similar to the ones previously provided by the VA, ensuring a higher degree of robustness in decision-making. Additionally, all the information should be jointly analyzed and assessed by each player, who are expected to add “Emotional Intelligence”, an essential component absent from the machine learning process.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, gamification, key performance indicators, machine learning, management simulators, serious games, virtual assistant

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Authors: Teresa Wanjiru Mbatia

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On 7th June 2011, the government Minister of Roads in Kenya announced the proposed construction of a major highway known as a southern bypass to run on the northern border of the Nairobi National Park. The following day on 8th June 2011, the chairperson of the Friends of Nairobi National Park (FONNAP) posted a protest statement on their website, with the heading, ‘Nairobi Park is Not a cake’ alerting its members and conservation groups, with the aim of getting support to the campaign against the government’s intention to hive off a section of the park for road construction. This was the first and earliest statement that led to a series of other events that culminated in conservationists and some other members of the public campaign against the government’s plan to hive off sections of the park to build road and railway infrastructure in or around the park. Together with other non-state actors, mostly non-governmental organisations in conservation/environment and tourism businesses, FoNNAP issued a series of other statements on social, print and electronic media to battle against road and railway construction. This paper examined the strategies, outcomes and interests of actors involved in opposing/proposing the development of transport infrastructure in and around the Nairobi National Park. Specifically, the objectives were to analyse the: (1) Arguments put forward by the eco-warriors to protest infrastructure development; (2) Background and interests of the eco-warriors; (3) Needs/interests and opinions of ordinary common citizens on transport infrastructural development, particularly in and around the urban nature reserve and (4) Final outcomes of the eco-politics surrounding infrastructure development in and around Nairobi National Park. The methodological approach used was environmental history and the social construction of nature. The study collected combined qualitative data using four main approaches, the grounded theory approach, narratives, case studies and a phenomenological approach. The information collected was analysed using critical discourse analysis. The major findings of the study were that under the guise of “public participation,” influential non-state actors have the capacity to perpetuate social-spatial inequalities in the form of curtailing the majority from accessing common public goods. A case in point in this study is how the efforts of powerful conservationists, environmentalists, and tourism businesspersons managed to stall the construction of much-needed road and railway infrastructure severally through litigations in lengthy environmental court processes involving injunctions and stop orders to the government bodies in charge. Moreover, powerful non-state actors were found to have formed informal and sometimes formal coalitions with politicians with selfish interests, which serves to deepen the exclusionary practices and the common good. The study concludes that mostly composed of certain types of elites (NGOs, business communities, politicians and privileged social-cultural groups), non-state actors have used participatory policies to advance their own interests at the expense of the majority whom they claim to represent. These practices are traced to the historically unjust social, political, and economic forces involved in the production of space in Nairobi.

Keywords: eco-politics, exclusion, infrastructure, Nairobi national park, non-state actors, protests

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Authors: Andrew Laming, John Hattie, Mark Wilson

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Nine Queensland Independent high schools provided deidentified student-matched ATAR and NAPLAN data for all 1217 ATAR graduates since 2020 who also sat NAPLAN at the school. Graduating cohorts from the nine schools contained a mean 100 ATAR graduates with previous NAPLAN data from their school. Excluded were vocational students (mean=27) and any ATAR graduates without NAPLAN data (mean=20). Based on Index of Community Socio-Educational Access (ICSEA) prediction, all schools had larger that predicted proportions of their students graduating with ATARs. There were an additional 173 students not releasing their ATARs to their school (14%), requiring this data to be inferred by schools. Gain was established by first converting each student’s strongest NAPLAN domain to a statewide percentile, then subtracting this result from final ATAR. The resulting ‘percentile shift’ was corrected for plausible ATAR participation at each NAPLAN level. Strongest NAPLAN domain had the highest correlation with ATAR (R2=0.58). RESULTS School mean NAPLAN scores fitted ICSEA closely (R2=0.97). Schools achieved a mean cohort gain of two ATAR rankings, but only 66% of students gained. This ranged from 46% of top-NAPLAN decile students gaining, rising to 75% achieving gains outside the top decile. The 54% of top-decile students whose ATAR fell short of prediction lost a mean 4.0 percentiles (or 6.2 percentiles prior to correction for regression to the mean). 71% of students in smaller schools gained, compared to 63% in larger schools. NAPLAN variability in each of the 13 ICSEA1100 cohorts was 17%, with both intra-school and inter-school variation of these values extremely low (0.3% to 1.8%). Mean ATAR change between years in each school was just 1.1 ATAR ranks. This suggests consecutive school cohorts and ICSEA-similar schools share very similar distributions and outcomes over time. Quantile analysis of the NAPLAN/ATAR revealed heteroscedasticity, but splines offered little additional benefit over simple linear regression. The NAPLAN/ATAR R2 was 0.33. DISCUSSION Standardised data like NAPLAN and ATAR offer educators a simple no-cost progression metric to analyse performance in conjunction with their internal test results. Change is expressed in percentiles, or ATAR shift per student, which is layperson intuitive. Findings may also reduce ATAR/vocational stream mismatch, reveal proportions of cohorts meeting or falling short of expectation and demonstrate by how much. Finally, ‘crashed’ ATARs well below expectation are revealed, which schools can reasonably work to minimise. The percentile shift method is neither value-add nor a growth percentile. In the absence of exit NAPLAN testing, this metric is unable to discriminate academic gain from legitimate ATAR-maximizing strategies. But by controlling for ICSEA, ATAR proportion variation and student mobility, it uncovers progression to ATAR metrics which are not currently publicly available. However achieved, ATAR maximisation is a sought-after private good. So long as standardised nationwide data is available, this analysis offers useful analytics for educators and reasonable predictivity when counselling subsequent cohorts about their ATAR prospects.  

Keywords: NAPLAN, ATAR, analytics, measurement, gain, performance, data, percentile, value-added, high school, numeracy, reading comprehension, variability, regression to the mean

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Authors: Pinzhe Zhao

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This study focuses on predicting university students' cheating tendencies using psychological traits and machine learning techniques. Academic dishonesty is a significant issue that compromises the integrity and fairness of educational institutions. While much research has been dedicated to detecting cheating behaviors after they have occurred, there is limited work on predicting such tendencies before they manifest. The aim of this research is to develop a model that can identify students who are at higher risk of engaging in academic misconduct, allowing for earlier interventions to prevent such behavior. Psychological factors are known to influence students' likelihood of cheating. Research shows that traits such as test anxiety, moral reasoning, self-efficacy, and achievement motivation are strongly linked to academic dishonesty. High levels of anxiety may lead students to cheat as a way to cope with pressure. Those with lower self-efficacy are less confident in their academic abilities, which can push them toward dishonest behaviors to secure better outcomes. Students with weaker moral judgment may also justify cheating more easily, believing it to be less wrong under certain conditions. Achievement motivation also plays a role, as students driven primarily by external rewards, such as grades, are more likely to cheat compared to those motivated by intrinsic learning goals. In this study, data on students’ psychological traits is collected through validated assessments, including scales for anxiety, moral reasoning, self-efficacy, and motivation. Additional data on academic performance, attendance, and engagement in class are also gathered to create a more comprehensive profile. Using machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, the research builds models that can predict students’ cheating tendencies. These models are trained and evaluated using metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores to ensure they provide reliable predictions. The findings demonstrate that combining psychological traits with machine learning provides a powerful method for identifying students at risk of cheating. This approach allows for early detection and intervention, enabling educational institutions to take proactive steps in promoting academic integrity. The predictive model can be used to inform targeted interventions, such as counseling for students with high test anxiety or workshops aimed at strengthening moral reasoning. By addressing the underlying factors that contribute to cheating behavior, educational institutions can reduce the occurrence of academic dishonesty and foster a culture of integrity. In conclusion, this research contributes to the growing body of literature on predictive analytics in education. It offers a approach by integrating psychological assessments with machine learning to predict cheating tendencies. This method has the potential to significantly improve how academic institutions address academic dishonesty, shifting the focus from punishment after the fact to prevention before it occurs. By identifying high-risk students and providing them with the necessary support, educators can help maintain the fairness and integrity of the academic environment.

Keywords: academic dishonesty, cheating prediction, intervention strategies, machine learning, psychological traits, academic integrity

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Authors: Ishita Singh

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Social-dimension of Climate Change is no longer peripheral to Science, Technology and Innovation (STI). Indeed, STI is being mobilized to address small farmers’ vulnerability and adaptation to Climate Change. The experiences from the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya illustrate the potential of STI to address the challenges of Climate Change and the needs of small farmers through the use of Artificial Glacier Techniques. Small farmers have a unique technique of water harvesting to augment irrigation, called “Artificial Glaciers” - an intricate network of water channels and dams along the upper slope of a valley that are located closer to villages and at lower altitudes than natural glaciers. It starts to melt much earlier and supplements additional irrigation to small farmers’ improving their livelihoods. Therefore, the issue of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategy needs to be analyzed in a local context and the communities as well as regions where people live. Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya provides a Case Study for exploring the ways in which adaptation to Climate Change is taking place at a community scale using Artificial Glacier Technology. With the above backdrop, an attempt has been made to analyze the rural poor households' vulnerability and adaptation practices to Climate Change using this technology, thereby drawing lessons on vulnerability-livelihood interactions in the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. The study is based on primary data and information collected from 675 households confined to 27 villages of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. It reveals that 61.18% of the population is driving livelihoods from agriculture and allied activities. With increased irrigation potential due to the use of Artificial Glaciers, food security has been assured to 77.56% of households and health vulnerability has been reduced in 31% of households. Seasonal migration as a livelihood diversification mechanism has declined in nearly two-thirds of households, thereby improving livelihood strategies. Use of tactical adaptations by small farmers in response to persistent droughts, such as selling livestock, expanding agriculture lands, and use of relief cash and foods, have declined to 20.44%, 24.74% and 63% of households. However, these measures are unsustainable on a long-term basis. The role of policymakers and societal stakeholders becomes important in this context. To address livelihood challenges, the role of technology is critical in a multidisciplinary approach involving multilateral collaboration among different stakeholders. The presence of social entrepreneurs and new actors on the adaptation scene is necessary to bring forth adaptation measures. Better linkage between Science and Technology policies, together with other policies, should be encouraged. Better health care, access to safe drinking water, better sanitary conditions, and improved standards of education and infrastructure are effective measures to enhance a community’s adaptive capacity. However, social transfers for supporting climate adaptive capacity require significant amounts of additional investment. Developing institutional mechanisms for specific adaptation interventions can be one of the most effective ways of implementing a plan to enhance adaptation and build resilience.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, livelihood, stakeholders

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Authors: Stanislav Babaev, Vladimir Cuk, Sjef Cobben, Jan Desmet

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The procedures for performing harmonic studies for medium-voltage distribution feeders have become relatively mature topics since the early 1980s. The efforts of various electric power engineers and researchers were mainly focused on handling large harmonic non-linear loads connected scarcely at several buses of medium-voltage feeders. In order to assess the impact of these loads on the voltage quality of the distribution system, specific modeling and simulation strategies were proposed. These methodologies could deliver a reasonable estimation accuracy given the requirements of least computational efforts and reduced complexity. To uphold these requirements, certain analysis assumptions have been made, which became de facto standards for establishing guidelines for harmonic analysis. Among others, typical assumptions include balanced conditions of the study and the negligible impact of impedance frequency characteristics of various power system components. In latter, skin and proximity effects are usually omitted, and resistance and reactance values are modeled based on the theoretical equations. Further, the simplifications of the modelling routine have led to the commonly accepted practice of neglecting phase angle diversity effects. This is mainly associated with developed load models, which only in a handful of cases are representing the complete harmonic behavior of a certain device as well as accounting on the harmonic interaction between grid harmonic voltages and harmonic currents. While these modelling practices were proven to be reasonably effective for medium-voltage levels, similar approaches have been adopted for low-voltage distribution systems. Given modern conditions and massive increase in usage of residential electronic devices, recent and ongoing boom of electric vehicles, and large-scale installing of distributed solar power, the harmonics in current low-voltage grids are characterized by high degree of variability and demonstrate sufficient diversity leading to a certain level of cancellation effects. It is obvious, that new modelling algorithms overcoming previously made assumptions have to be accepted. In this work, a simulation approach aimed to deal with some of the typical assumptions is proposed. A practical low-voltage feeder is modeled in PowerFactory. In order to demonstrate the importance of diversity effect and harmonic interaction, previously developed measurement-based models of photovoltaic inverter and battery charger are used as loads. The Python-based script aiming to supply varying voltage background distortion profile and the associated current harmonic response of loads is used as the core of unbalanced simulation. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty of feeder frequency-impedance characteristics on total harmonic distortion levels is shown along with scenarios involving linear resistive loads, which further alter the impedance of the system. The comparative analysis demonstrates sufficient differences with cases when all the assumptions are in place, and results indicate that new modelling and simulation procedures need to be adopted for low-voltage distribution systems with high penetration of non-linear loads and renewable generation.

Keywords: electric power system, harmonic distortion, power quality, public low-voltage network, harmonic modelling

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Authors: Linda Fellag, Arlene Caney

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E-learning has earned an essential place in academia because it promotes learner autonomy, student engagement, and technological aptitude, and allows for flexible learning. However, despite advantages, educators have been slower to embrace e-learning for ESL and other non-traditional students for fear that such students will not succeed without the direct faculty contact and academic support of face-to-face classrooms. This study aims to determine if a non-traditional student-friendly online course can produce student retention and performance rates that compare favorably with those of students in standard online sections of the same course aimed at traditional college-level students. One Music faculty member is currently collaborating with an English instructor to redesign an online college-level Music Appreciation course for non-traditional college students. At Community College of Philadelphia, Introduction to Music Appreciation was recently designated as one of the few college-level courses that advanced ESL, and developmental English students can take while completing their language studies. Beginning in Fall 2017, the course will be critical for international students who must maintain full-time student status under visa requirements. In its current online format, however, Music Appreciation is designed for traditional college students, and faculty who teach these sections have been reluctant to revise the course to address the needs of non-traditional students. Interestingly, presenters maintain that the online platform is the ideal place to develop language and college readiness skills in at-risk students while maintaining the course's curricular integrity. The two faculty presenters describe how curriculum rather than technology drives the redesign of the digitized music course, and self-study materials, guided assignments, and periodic assessments promote independent learning and comprehension of material. The 'scaffolded' modules allow ESL and developmental English students to build on prior knowledge, preview key vocabulary, discuss content, and complete graded tasks that demonstrate comprehension. Activities and assignments, in turn, enhance college success by allowing students to practice academic reading strategies, writing, speaking, and student-faculty and peer-peer communication and collaboration. The course components facilitate a comparison of student performance and retention in sections of the redesigned and existing online sections of Music Appreciation as well as in previous sections with at-risk students. Indirect, qualitative measures include student attitudinal surveys and evaluations. Direct, quantitative measures include withdrawal rates, tests of disciplinary knowledge, and final grades. The study will compare the outcomes of three cohorts in the two versions of the online course: ESL students, at-risk developmental students, and college-level students. These data will also be compared with retention and student outcomes data of the three cohorts in f2f Music Appreciation, which permitted non-traditional student enrollment from 1998-2005. During this eight-year period, the presenter addressed the problems of at-risk students by adding language and college success support, which resulted in strong retention and outcomes. The presenters contend that the redesigned course will produce favorable outcomes among all three cohorts because it contains components which proved successful with at-risk learners in f2f sections of the course. Results of their study will be published in 2019 after the redesigned online course has met for two semesters.

Keywords: college readiness, e-learning, music appreciation, online courses

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Authors: Francesca Gullo, Paola Palmero, Massimo Messori

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Transparent wood is considered a promising structural material for the development of environmentally friendly, energy-efficient engineered components. To obtain transparent wood from natural wood materials two approaches can be used: i) bottom-up and ii) top-down. Through the second method, the color of natural wood samples is lightened through a chemical bleaching process that acts on chromophore groups of lignin, such as the benzene ring, quinonoid, vinyl, phenolics, and carbonyl groups. These chromophoric units form complex conjugate systems responsible for the brown color of wood. There are two strategies to remove color and increase the whiteness of wood: i) lignin removal and ii) lignin bleaching. In the lignin removal strategy, strong chemicals containing chlorine (chlorine, hypochlorite, and chlorine dioxide) and oxidizers (oxygen, ozone, and peroxide) are used to completely destroy and dissolve the lignin. In lignin bleaching methods, a moderate reductive (hydrosulfite) or oxidative (hydrogen peroxide) is commonly used to alter or remove the groups and chromophore systems of lignin, selectively discoloring the lignin while keeping the macrostructure intact. It is, therefore, essential to manipulate nanostructured wood by precisely controlling the nanopores in the cell walls by monitoring both chemical treatments and process conditions, for instance, the treatment time, the concentration of chemical solutions, the pH value, and the temperature. The elimination of wood light scattering is the second step in the fabrication of transparent wood materials, which can be achieved through two-step approaches: i) the polymer impregnation method and ii) the densification method. For the polymer impregnation method, the wood scaffold is treated with polymers having a corresponding refractive index (e.g., PMMA and epoxy resins) under vacuum to obtain the transparent composite material, which can finally be pressed to align the cellulose fibers and reduce interfacial defects in order to have a finished product with high transmittance (>90%) and excellent light-guiding. However, both the solution-based bleaching and the impregnation processes used to produce transparent wood generally consume large amounts of energy and chemicals, including some toxic or pollutant agents, and are difficult to scale up industrially. Here, we report a method to produce optically transparent wood by modifying the lignin structure with a chemical reaction at room temperature using small amounts of hydrogen peroxide in an alkaline environment. This method preserves the lignin, which results only deconjugated and acts as a binder, providing both a strong wood scaffold and suitable porosity for infiltration of biobased polymers while reducing chemical consumption, the toxicity of the reagents used, polluting waste, petroleum by-products, energy and processing time. The resulting transparent wood demonstrates high transmittance and low thermal conductivity. Through the combination of process efficiency and scalability, the obtained materials are promising candidates for application in the field of construction for modern energy-efficient buildings.

Keywords: bleached wood, energy-efficient components, hydrogen peroxide, transparent wood, wood composites

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Authors: Juergen Junk, Franz Ronellenfitsch, Michael Eickermann

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An appropriate weed management in autumn is a prerequisite for an economically successful harvest in the following year. In Luxembourg oilseed rape, wheat and barley is sown from August until October, accompanied by a chemical weed control with soil active herbicides, depending on the state of the weeds and the meteorological conditions. Based on regular ground and surface water-analysis, high levels of contamination by transformation products of respective herbicide compounds have been found in Luxembourg. The most ideal conditions for incorporating soil active herbicides are single rain events. Weed control may be reduced if application is made when weeds are under drought stress or if repeated light rain events followed by dry spells, because the herbicides tend to bind tightly to the soil particles. These effects have been frequently reported for Luxembourg throughout the last years. In the framework of a multisite long-term field experiment (EFFO) weed monitoring, plants observations and corresponding meteorological measurements were conducted. Long-term time series (1947-2016) from the SYNOP station Findel-Airport (WMO ID = 06590) showed a decrease in the number of days with precipitation. As the total precipitation amount has not significantly changed, this indicates a trend towards rain events with higher intensity. All analyses are based on decades (10-day periods) for September and October of each individual year. To assess the future meteorological conditions for Luxembourg, two different approaches were applied. First, multi-model ensembles from the CORDEX experiments (spatial resolution ~12.5 km; transient projections until 2100) were analysed for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5), covering the time span from 2005 until 2100. The multi-model ensemble approach allows for the quantification of the uncertainties and also to assess the differences between the two emission scenarios. Second, to assess smaller scale differences within the country a high resolution model projection using the COSMO-LM model was used (spatial resolution 1.3 km). To account for the higher computational demands, caused by the increased spatial resolution, only 10-year time slices have been simulated (reference period 1991-2000; near future 2041-2050 and far future 2091-2100). Statistically significant trends towards higher air temperatures, +1.6 K for September (+5.3 K far future) and +1.3 K for October (+4.3 K), were predicted for the near future compared to the reference period. Precipitation simultaneously decreased by 9.4 mm (September) and 5.0 mm (October) for the near future and -49 mm (September) and -10 mm (October) in the far future. Beside the monthly values also decades were analyzed for the two future time periods of the CLM model. For all decades of September and October the number of days with precipitation decreased for the projected near and far future. Changes in meteorological variables such as air temperature and precipitation did already induce transformations in weed societies (composition, late-emerging etc.) of arable ecosystems in Europe. Therefore, adaptations of agronomic practices as well as effective weed control strategies must be developed to maintain crop yield.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, dry spells, ensembles, weed management

Procedia PDF Downloads 235

Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

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Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS) defined as the ratio of “Tmax - Tcrit_h” to “Tlimit_h - Tcrit_h” where Tmax, Tcrit_h and Tlimit_h represent the daily maximum temperature (°C), critical high temperature threshold (°C) and limiting high temperature threshold (°C) of rapeseed crop respectively; cold degree days (CDD) as the difference between daily Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tcrit_l (critical low temperature threshold); and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) as the product of fHS and attainable rapeseed yield in the same land pixel were established. The values of fHS and CDD, percentages of days experiencing each stress and fRPL were investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

Procedia PDF Downloads 61