Search results for: risk and safety

Authors: Siti Rohana Mohd Yatim, Ku Halim Ku Hamid, Kamariah Noor Ismail, Zulkifli Abdul Rashid

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The aim of this study is to investigate odour emission profiles from storage of food waste and to assess the potential health risk caused by exposure to volatile compounds. Food waste decomposition process was conducted for 14 days and kept at 20°C and 30°C in self-made bioreactor. VOCs emissions from both samples were collected at different stages of decomposition starting at day 0, day 1, day 3, day 5, day 7, day 10, day 12 and day 14. It was analyzed using TD-GC/MS. Findings showed that various VOCs were released during decomposition of food waste. Compounds produced were influenced by time, temperature and the physico-chemical characteristics of the compounds. The most abundant compound released was dimethyl disulfide. Potential health risk of exposure to this compound is represented by hazard ratio, HR, calculated at 1.6 x 1011. Since HR equal to or less than 1.0 is considered negligible risk, this indicates that the compound posed a potential risk to human health.

Keywords: volatile organic compounds, decomposition process, food waste, health risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 501

Authors: Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Imron Mawardi, Achsania Hendratmi

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Murabaha is the most popular contract by the Islamic banks in Indonesia, since there is opinion stating that the risk level of mudharaba and musyaraka are higher and the return is uncertain. This research aims to analyze the difference of return, risk, and variation coefficient between profit sharing-based and trading-based financing in Islamic bank. This research uses quantitative approach using Wilcoxon signed rank test with data sampled from 13 Indonesian Islamic banks, collected from their quarterly financial reports from 2011 to 2015. The result shows the significant difference in return, while risk and variation coefficient are almost same. From the analysis, it can be concluded that profit sharing-based financing is less desirable not because of its risk. Trading-based financing is more desirable than the profit sharing because of its return.

Keywords: financing, Islamic bank, return, risk

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Authors: İsmail Karaca, Ömer Söner

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The use of advanced methods has been increasing day by day in the maritime sector, which is one of the sectors least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to minimize accidents, especially by using advanced methods in the investigation of marine accidents. This research aimed to conduct an exploratory statistical analysis of particular ship accidents in the Transport Safety Investigation Center of Turkey database. 46 ship accidents, which occurred between 2010-2018, have been selected from the database. In addition to the availability of a reliable and comprehensive database, taking advantage of the robust statistical models for investigation is critical to improving the safety of ships. Thus, descriptive analysis has been used in the research to identify causes and conditional factors related to different types of ship accidents. The research outcomes underline the fact that environmental factors and day and night ratio have great influence on ship safety.

Keywords: descriptive analysis, maritime industry, maritime safety, ship accident statistics

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Authors: Jann-Eike Saathoff, Kirill Alexander Schmoor, Martin Achmus, Mauricio Terceros

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By using partial factors of safety, uncertainties due to the inherent variability of the soil properties and loads are taken into account in the geotechnical design process. According to the reliability index concept in Eurocode-0 in conjunction with Eurocode-7 a minimum safety level of β = 3.8 for reliability class RC2 shall be established. The reliability of the system depends heavily on the choice of the prespecified safety factor and the choice of the characteristic soil properties. The safety factors stated in the standards are mainly based on experience. However, no general accepted method for the calculation of a characteristic value within the current design practice exists. In this study, a laterally loaded monopile is investigated and the influence of the chosen quantile values of the deterministic system, calculated with p-y springs, will be presented. Monopiles are the most common foundation concepts for offshore wind energy converters. Based on the calculations for non-cohesive soils, a recommendation for an appropriate quantile value for the necessary safety level according to the standards for a deterministic design is given.

Keywords: asymptotic sampling, characteristic value, monopile foundation, probabilistic design, quantile values

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Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

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Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

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Authors: Manzurul Alam, John Griffiths, David Holloway, Megan Paull, Anne Clear

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Background: This paper investigates the nature of risk management practices in non-profit organizations. It is argued here that the risk exposure of these organizations has increased as a result of their entrepreneurial activities. This study explores how a particular non-profit organization formulates its risk strategies in the face funding restrictions. Design/Method/Approach: The study adopts a case study approach to report the results on how a non-profit organization diversifies its activities, tackles risks arising from such activities and improves performance. Results: The findings show that the organization made structural adjustments and leadership changes which helped to adjust their risk strategies. It also reports the organizational processes to deal with risks arising from both related and unrelated diversification strategies. Implications: Any generalization from this case example needs to be taken with caution as there are significant differences between non-profit organizations operating in different sectors. Originality: The paper makes a significant contribution to the non-profit literature by highlighting the diversification strategies along with risk performance.

Keywords: risk management, performance management, non-profit organizations, financial management

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

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There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, value at risk

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Authors: Teresa Smith, Farrah Jacquez

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Health-risk behaviors (e.g., smoking, poor diet) directly increase the risk for chronic disease and morbidity. There is substantial evidence of a negative association between socioeconomic status (SES) and engagement in health-risk behaviors. However, due to the complexity of SES, researchers have suggested looking beyond this factor to fully understand the mechanisms that underlie engagement in health-risk behaviors. Stress is one plausible mechanism through which SES impacts health-risk behaviors. Currently, it remains unclear how stress occurring across the life course might impact health behaviors and explain the association between SES and these behaviors. To address the gaps in the literature, 172 adults between the ages of 18-49 were surveyed about their lifetime stress exposure, sociodemographic variables, and health-risk behaviors via an online recruitment portal, Prolific. Five major findings emerged from the current study. First, SES was negatively associated with engagement in health-risk behaviors and lifetime stress above and beyond current stress and other relevant demographics. Second, lifetime stress was significantly associated with health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and relevant demographic variables. Third, lifetime stress fully mediated the association between SES and health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and other demographics. Fourth, the severity of stress experienced emerged as the most significant lifetime stress variable that explains the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors. Fifth and finally, lower SES and experiencing financial and legal/crime stressors increased the likelihood of engaging in health-risk behaviors. The current study results align with previous research and suggest that stress occurring over the lifespan impacts the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors, which are in turn known to impact health outcomes. However, our findings move the current literature forward by providing a more nuanced understanding of the specific aspects of stress that influence this association. Specifically, the severity of stress experienced across the entire lifespan was the most important aspect of stress when examining the association between SES and health-risk behaviors. Further, individuals most at risk for engaging in health-risk behaviors are those of the lowest SES and experience financial and legal/crime stressors. These findings have the potential to inform interventions and policies aimed at addressing health-risk behaviors by providing a more sophisticated understanding of the impact of stress.

Keywords: stress, health behaviors, socioeconomic status, health

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Authors: Ivana R. Moser, Joao C. Souza

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Building fires are random phenomena that can be extremely violent, and safe evacuation of people is the most guaranteed tactic in saving lives. The correct evacuation of buildings, and other spaces occupied by people, means leaving the place in a short time and by the appropriate way. It depends on the perception of spaces by the individual, the architectural layout and the presence of appropriate routing systems. As historical buildings were constructed in other times, when, as in general, the current security requirements were not available yet, it is necessary to adapt these spaces to make them safe. Computer models of evacuation simulation are widely used tools for assessing the safety of people in a building or agglomeration sites and these are associated with the analysis of human behaviour, makes the results of emergency evacuation more correct and conclusive. The objective of this research is the performance evaluation of historical interest buildings, regarding the safe evacuation of people, through computer simulation, using PTV Viswalk software. The buildings objects of study are the Colégio Catarinense, centennial building, located in the city of Florianópolis, Santa Catarina / Brazil. The software used uses the variables of human behaviour, such as: avoid collision with other pedestrians and avoid obstacles. Scenarios were run on the three-dimensional models and the contribution to safety in risk situations was verified as an alternative measure, especially in the impossibility of applying those measures foreseen by the current fire safety codes in Brazil. The simulations verified the evacuation time in situations of normality and emergency situations, as well as indicate the bottlenecks and critical points of the studied buildings, to seek solutions to prevent and correct these undesirable events. It is understood that adopting an advanced computational performance-based approach promotes greater knowledge of the building and how people behave in these specific environments, in emergency situations.

Keywords: computer simulation, escape routes, fire safety, historic buildings, human behavior

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Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

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The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

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Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: James Freeman, Andry Rakotonirainy

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Train pedestrian collisions are common and are the most likely to result in severe injuries and fatalities when compared to other types of rail crossing accidents. However, there is limited research that has focused on understanding the reasons why some pedestrians’ break level crossings rules, which limits the development of effective countermeasures. As a result, this study undertook a deeper exploration into the origins of risky pedestrian behaviour through structured interviews. A total of 40 pedestrians who admitted to either intentionally breaking crossing rules or making crossing errors participated in an in-depth telephone interview. Qualitative analysis was undertaken via thematic analysis that revealed participants were more likely to report deliberately breaking rules (rather than make errors), particular after the train had passed the crossing as compared to before it arrives. Predominant reasons for such behaviours were identified to be: calculated risk taking, impatience, poor knowledge of rules and low likelihood of detection. The findings have direct implications for the development of effective countermeasures to improve crossing safety (and managing risk) such as increasing surveillance and transit officer presence, as well as installing appropriate barriers that either deter or incapacitate pedestrians from violating crossing rules. This paper will further outline the study findings in regards to the development of countermeasures as well as provide direction for future research efforts in this area.

Keywords: crossings, mistakes, risk, violations

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Authors: Riyadh Jamegh, Alla Eldin Kassam, Sawsan Sabih

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In order to overcome uncertainty conditions and inability to meet customers' requests due to these conditions, organizations tend to reserve a certain safety stock level (SSL). This level must be chosen carefully in order to avoid the increase in holding cost due to excess in SSL or shortage cost due to too low SSL. This paper used soft computing fuzzy logic to identify optimal SSL; this fuzzy model uses the dynamic concept to cope with high complexity environment status. The proposed model can deal with three input variables, i.e., demand stability level, raw material availability level, and on hand inventory level by using dynamic fuzzy logic to obtain the best SSL as an output. In this model, demand stability, raw material, and on hand inventory levels are described linguistically and then treated by inference rules of the fuzzy model to extract the best level of safety stock. The aim of this research is to provide dynamic approach which is used to identify safety stock level, and it can be implanted in different industries. Numerical case study in the dairy industry with Yogurt 200 gm cup product is explained to approve the validity of the proposed model. The obtained results are compared with the current level of safety stock which is calculated by using the traditional approach. The importance of the proposed model has been demonstrated by the significant reduction in safety stock level.

Keywords: inventory optimization, soft computing, safety stock optimization, dairy industries inventory optimization

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Authors: Ghazwan Al-Haji

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Traffic safety has become a major concern in Southeast Asia due to the increasing number of road accidents resulting in fatalities and injuries. Southeast Asia has one of the highest road traffic fatality rates in the world, in terms of both population and number of cars, nearly six times higher than the EU region. One of the reasons for this concerning trend is the increasing share of motorcycles as a form of transportation throughout Southeast Asia. The purpose of this study is to benchmark traffic safety situations and statistics in six countries in Asia and the EU, which Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Italy, Portugal and Sweden. The research will assess the priorities and causes of road accidents in the target nations. Further, the study will analyze the existing practices and promote best practices that can be implemented toward safer roads in Asian target countries. In order to achieve this goal, the study categorizes various factors contributing to traffic accidents and best practices into 4 pillars (Safer Behavior, Safer Roads, Safer Vehicles and Road Safety Management). The result of the study consists of a list of recommendations that can be applied by policymakers to promote safer roads in Asia towards 2030. The study is co-financed by the EU project ASIASAFE.

Keywords: traffic safety, ASIASAFE, Southeast Asia, EU project

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: Tuji Jemal Ahmed

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Food quality and safety challenges are prevalent in Ethiopia's food processing industry, which can have adverse effects on consumers' health and wellbeing. The country is known for its diverse range of agricultural products, which are essential to its economy. However, poor food quality and safety policies and management systems in the food processing industry have led to several health problems, foodborne illnesses, and economic losses. This paper aims to highlight the causes and effects of food safety and quality issues in the food processing industry of Ethiopia and discuss potential solutions to address these issues. One of the main causes of poor food quality and safety in Ethiopia's food processing industry is the lack of adequate regulations and enforcement mechanisms. The absence of comprehensive food safety and quality policies and guidelines has led to substandard practices in the food manufacturing process. Moreover, the lack of monitoring and enforcement of existing regulations has created a conducive environment for unscrupulous businesses to engage in unsafe practices that endanger the public's health. The effects of poor food quality and safety are significant, ranging from the loss of human lives, increased healthcare costs, and loss of consumer confidence in the food processing industry. Foodborne illnesses, such as diarrhea, typhoid fever, and cholera, are prevalent in Ethiopia, and poor food quality and safety practices contribute significantly to their prevalence. Additionally, food recalls due to contamination or mislabeling often result in significant economic losses for businesses in the food processing industry. To address these challenges, the Ethiopian government has begun to take steps to improve food quality and safety in the food processing industry. One of the most notable initiatives is the Ethiopian Food and Drug Administration (EFDA), which was established in 2010 to regulate and monitor the quality and safety of food and drug products in the country. The EFDA has implemented several measures to enhance food safety, such as conducting routine inspections, monitoring the importation of food products, and enforcing strict labeling requirements. Another potential solution to improve food quality and safety in Ethiopia's food processing industry is the implementation of food safety management systems (FSMS). An FSMS is a set of procedures and policies designed to identify, assess, and control food safety hazards throughout the food manufacturing process. Implementing an FSMS can help businesses in the food processing industry identify and address potential hazards before they cause harm to consumers. Additionally, the implementation of an FSMS can help businesses comply with existing food safety regulations and guidelines. In conclusion, improving food quality and safety policies and management systems in Ethiopia's food processing industry is critical to protecting public health and enhancing the country's economy. Addressing the root causes of poor food quality and safety and implementing effective solutions, such as the establishment of regulatory agencies and the implementation of food safety management systems, can help to improve the overall safety and quality of the country's food supply.

Keywords: food quality, food safety, policy, management system, food processing industry

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Authors: Sulasmi Sudirman, Rachmadanty Mujah Hartika

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Traffic violence is currently a big issue in Indonesia. However, the road users perceived risk that is caused by traffic violence is low. The lack of safety driving awareness is one of the factors that road users committed to traffic violence. There are several lists of common traffic violence in Indonesia such as lack of physical fitness, not wearing helmet, unfasten seatbelt, breaking through the traffic light, not holding a driving license, and some more violence. This research sought to explore the perception of road users toward traffic violence. The participants were road users in Makassar, Indonesia who were using cars and motorbikes. The method of the research was a qualitative approach by using a personal interview to collect data. The research showed that there three main ideas of perceiving traffic violence which are motives, environment that supported traffic violence, and reinforcement. The road users committed traffic violence had particular motive, for example, rushing. The road users committed to traffic violence when other road users and significant other did the same. The road users committed traffic violence when the police were not there to give a ticket. It can be concluded that the perception of road users toward traffic violence determined by internal aspect, the social aspect, and regulation.

Keywords: perception, road users, traffic, violence

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Authors: Lito M. Amit, Venecio U. Ultra, Young-Woong Song

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The business process outsourcing (BPO) in the Philippines is expanding rapidly attracting more than 2% of total employment. Currently, the BPO industry is confronted with several issues pertaining to sustainable productivity such as meeting the staffing gap, high rate of employees’ turnover and workforce retention, and the occupational health and safety (OHS) of call center agents. We conducted a survey of OHS programs and health concerns among call center agents in the Philippines and determined the sociocultural factors that affect the vulnerability of call center agents to occupational health risks and hazards. The majority of the agents affirmed that OHS are implemented and OHS orientation and emergency procedures were conducted at employment initiations, perceived favorable and convenient working environment except for occasional noise disturbances and acoustic shock, visual, and voice fatigues. Male agents can easily adjust to the demands and changes in their work environment and flexible work schedules than female agents. Female agents have a higher tendency to be pressured and humiliated by low work performance, experience a higher incidence of emotional abuse, psychological abuse, and experience more physical stress than male agents. The majority of the call center agents had a night-shift schedule and regardless of other factors, night shift work brings higher stress to agents. While working in a call center, higher incidence of headaches and insomnia, burnout, suppressed anger, anxiety, and depressions were experienced by female, younger (21-25 years old) and those at night shift than their counterpart. Most common musculoskeletal disorders include body pain in the neck, shoulders and back; and hand and wrist disorders and these are commonly experienced by female and younger workers. About 30% experienced symptoms of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal disorders and weakened immune systems. Overall, these findings have shown the variable vulnerability by a different subpopulation of call center agents and are important in the occupational health risk prevention and management towards a sustainable human resource for BPO industry in the Philippines.

Keywords: business process outsourcing industry, health risk of call center agents, socio-cultural determinants, Philippines

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Authors: Vittorio Astarita, Giuseppe Guido, Vincenzo Pasquale Giofre, Alessandro Vitale

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Traffic microsimulation has been used extensively to evaluate consequences of different traffic planning and control policies in terms of travel time delays, queues, pollutant emissions, and every other common measured performance while at the same time traffic safety has not been considered in common traffic microsimulation packages as a measure of performance for different traffic scenarios. Vehicle conflict techniques that were introduced at intersections in the early traffic researches carried out at the General Motor laboratory in the USA and in the Swedish traffic conflict manual have been applied to vehicles trajectories simulated in microscopic traffic simulators. The concept is that microsimulation can be used as a base for calculating the number of conflicts that will define the safety level of a traffic scenario. This allows engineers to identify unsafe road traffic maneuvers and helps in finding the right countermeasures that can improve safety. Unfortunately, most commonly used indicators do not consider conflicts between single vehicles and roadside obstacles and barriers. A great number of vehicle crashes take place with roadside objects or obstacles. Only some recent proposed indicators have been trying to address this issue. This paper introduces a new procedure based on the simulation of potential crash events for the evaluation of safety levels in microsimulation traffic scenarios, which takes into account also potential crashes with roadside objects and barriers. The procedure can be used to define new conflict indicators. The proposed simulation procedure generates with the random perturbation of vehicle trajectories a set of potential crashes which can be evaluated accurately in terms of DeltaV, the energy of the impact, and/or expected number of injuries or casualties. The procedure can also be applied to real trajectories giving birth to new surrogate safety performance indicators, which can be considered as “simulation-based”. The methodology and a specific safety performance indicator are described and applied to a simulated test traffic scenario. Results indicate that the procedure is able to evaluate safety levels both at the intersection level and in the presence of roadside obstacles. The procedure produces results that are expressed in the same unity of measure for both vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to roadside object conflicts. The total energy for a square meter of all generated crash can be used and is shown on the map, for the test network, after the application of a threshold to evidence the most dangerous points. Without any detailed calibration of the microsimulation model and without any calibration of the parameters of the procedure (standard values have been used), it is possible to identify dangerous points. A preliminary sensitivity analysis has shown that results are not dependent on the different energy thresholds and different parameters of the procedure. This paper introduces a specific new procedure and the implementation in the form of a software package that is able to assess road safety, also considering potential conflicts with roadside objects. Some of the principles that are at the base of this specific model are discussed. The procedure can be applied on common microsimulation packages once vehicle trajectories and the positions of roadside barriers and obstacles are known. The procedure has many calibration parameters and research efforts will have to be devoted to make confrontations with real crash data in order to obtain the best parameters that have the potential of giving an accurate evaluation of the risk of any traffic scenario.

Keywords: road safety, traffic, traffic safety, traffic simulation

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Ireneusz Majsterek, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Jacek Kabzinski

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the deadliest cancers. Every year we see an increase in the number of cases, and in spite of intensive research etiology of the disease remains unknown. For many years, researchers are seeking to associate genetic factors with an increased risk of CRC, so far it has proved to be a compelling link between the MMR system of DNA repair and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancers (HNPCC). Currently, research is focused on finding the relationship between the remaining DNA repair systems and an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Ser835Ser of XPF gene and Gly23Ala of XPA gene–elements of NER DNA repair system, and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 23Gly/Ala of XPA gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, while 23Ala/Ala as well as TCT allele of Ser835Ser of XPF gene may reduce the risk of CRC.

Keywords: NER, colorectal cancer, XPA, XPF, polymorphisms

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Authors: Toake Endoh

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Cross-border migration of people is a critical driver for sustainable economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the region is susceptible to mega-scale natural disasters, such as tsunami, earthquakes, and typhoons. When migrants are stranded in a foreign country by a disaster, who should be responsible for their safety and security? What legal or moral foundation is there to advocate for the protection and assistance of “migrants at risk (M@R)”? How can the states practice “good governance” in their response to displacement of the foreign migrants? This paper inquires how to protect foreign migrants displaced by a natural disaster under international law and proposes protective actions to be taken by of migrant-receiver governments. First, the paper discusses the theoretical foundation for protection of M@R and argues that the nation-states are charged of responsibility to protect at-risk foreigners as “internally displaced persons” in the light of the United Nations’ Guiding Principles of Internal Displacement (1998). Second, through the case study of the Kobe Earthquake in Japan (1995), the Tsunami in Thailand (2004), and the Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. (2005), the paper evaluates how effectively (or poorly) institutions and state actors addressed the specific vulnerability felt by M@R in these crises.

Keywords: internal displaced persons, natural disaster, international migration, responsibility to protect

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Authors: Mohamed Hamada Abdelkader Fayed

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Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a screening test to exclude AAS. Methods: We conducted research for the studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD- RS)+ D-dimer to exclude the diagnosis of AAS, We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane of Trials up to 31 December 2020. Results: We identified 3 studies using (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a diagnostic tool for AAS, involving 3261 patients were AAS was diagnosed in 559(17.14%) patients. Overall results showed that the pooled sensitivities were 97.6 (95% CI 0.95.6, 99.6) at (ADD-RS)≤1(low risk group) with D-dimer and 97.4(95% CI 0.95.4,, 99.4) at (ADD-RS)>1(High risk group) with D-dimer., the failure rate was 0.48% at low risk group and 4.3% at high risk group respectively. Conclusions: (ADD-RS) with D-dimer was a useful screening test with high sensitivity to exclude Acute Aortic Syndrome.

Keywords: aortic dissection detection risk score, D-dimer, acute aortic syndrome, diagnostic accuracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Atia Alam

Abstract:

Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

Abstract:

The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s System. Naturally exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s System. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA- safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and ruler areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is also predicted the distribution schemes from the perspective of pollutants that considered multiple factors of multi-criteria analysis. The data extends input–output analysis to evaluate the spillover effect, and conducted Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the biosphere and collective a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in artistic/ architectural perspective. The hypothesis is an attempt to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for development urban environments using optimization software and applied as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology as optimization approach of systems ecology.

Keywords: spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: O. J. Makinde, O. A. Abiola

Abstract:

Background: Hazards and injuries are two common phenomena that have been associated with the building construction profession. Apart from injuries, deaths from injuries sustained at work have been high in this profession. This study, therefore, attempts to determine the attitude, practice, and prevalence of injuries among this group of workers. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with 285 respondents. The sampling was multi-staged. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to elicit information such as socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents, attitude and practice of occupational safety and prevalence of injuries among the workers. The data were analyzed using epi-info 3.5.1 statistical software. Result: The modal age group is 25-34yrs which made up 40% of the respondents. Most of the respondents were male (86.3%). Most of the respondent (52.3%) have their highest educational level as the secondary school. Most of the respondents (64.9%) had a poor attitude to occupational safety while 91.6% had poor occupational safety practices. The prevalence of occupational injury was very high (64.9%). Particles in the eyes have the highest prevalence (52.3%) while electric shock has the least prevalence (19.6%).None of the respondent working at a height used safety belt while working. Conclusion: Attitude and practice of occupational safety are poor among this group of workers and prevalence of injuries was high.

Keywords: building, construction, Hazard, injury, workers

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

Abstract:

The change in orbit evolution between collocated satellites (X, Y) inside +/-0.09 ° E/W and +/- 0.07 ° N/S cluster, after one of these satellites is placed in an inclined orbit (satellite X) and the effect of this change in the collocation safety inside the cluster window has been studied and evaluated. Several collocation scenarios had been studied in order to adjust the location of both satellites inside their cluster to maximize the separation between them and safe the mission.

Keywords: satellite, GEO, collocation, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 378